Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc (SNCY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Sun Country Airlines fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. My name is Michelle and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Sun Country Airlines 2024 年第四季和全年收益電話會議。我叫米歇爾，我將擔任您今天的電話接線生。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講者演講結束後，將有問答環節。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to Chris Allen, Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Allen, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係總監克里斯艾倫 (Chris Allen)。艾倫先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you. I'm joined today by Jude Bricker, our Chief Executive Officer; Dave Davis, President and Chief Financial Officer; and a group of others to help answer questions.

謝謝。今天與我一起參加的是我們的執行長 Jude Bricker；總裁兼財務長戴夫戴維斯 (Dave Davis)；以及其他一群人來幫忙回答問題。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, the company may make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements. Our remarks today may include forward-looking statements which are based upon the management's current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the risk factors and cautionary statements outlined in our earnings release and our most recent SEC filing. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. You can find our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings press release on the Investor Relations portion of our website at ir.suncountry.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，在本次電話會議中，公司可能會做出某些構成前瞻性陳述的陳述。我們今天的評論可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於管理層當前的信念、期望和假設，並受風險和不確定性的影響。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看我們的收益報告和最新的 SEC 文件中概述的風險因素和警告聲明。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。您可以在我們網站 ir.suncountry.com 的投資者關係部分找到我們的 2024 年第四季和全年收益新聞稿。

With that said, I'll turn the call over to Jude.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給裘德。

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Before we get into our financial results, I want to take a moment to address the tragic accident last week in Washington D.C. Our thoughts are with the families and loved ones affected by this event.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早安。在討論財務表現之前，我想花點時間談談上週在華盛頓特區發生的悲慘事故。

Our industry is highly competitive, but we've always worked together with other airlines, the OEMs, and regulators to make sure we deliver the safest possible operations. Once all the facts are gathered, there will surely be lessons that will be applied across the industry. We will continue to maintain the highest safety standards across our operations to earn and keep the trust of our passengers and the public.

我們的行業競爭非常激烈，但我們一直與其他航空公司、原始設備製造商和監管機構合作，以確保提供最安全的營運。一旦收集到所有事實，肯定會有可供整個產業借鑒的經驗教訓。我們將繼續在整個營運過程中保持最高的安全標準，以贏得並保持乘客和公眾的信任。

Our diversified business model is unique in the airline industry due to the predictability of our charter and cargo businesses. We are able to deliver the most flexible scheduled service capacity in the industry. The combination of our scheduled flexibility and low fixed cost model allows us to respond to both predictable leisure demand, fluctuations, and exogenous industry shocks. We believe due to our structural advantages, we will be able to reliably deliver industry-leading profitability throughout all cycles.

由於我們的包機和貨運業務的可預測性，我們的多元化業務模式在航空業中是獨一無二的。我們能夠提供業界最靈活的定期服務能力。我們的計劃靈活性和低固定成本模型相結合，使我們能夠應對可預測的休閒需求、波動以及外部行業衝擊。我們相信，憑藉我們的結構優勢，我們將能夠在所有周期內可靠地提供行業領先的盈利能力。

I want to first highlight a few developments. First, last month, we reached agreements in principle with the unions of both our flight attendants and our dispatchers. We expect these agreements to go to vote among the respective work groups in the next month or so. I'm excited to be able to deliver improved rates and work rules to all these team members.

我想先強調一些進展。首先，上個月，我們與空服員和調度員的工會達成了原則協議。我們預計這些協議將在下個月左右由各工作小組進行投票。我很高興能夠為所有團隊成員提供更好的薪資和工作規則。

Also, we took delivery of our first cargo aircraft from our latest agreement with Amazon. This aircraft has yet to enter service. But by summer, we will have all eight aircraft growing the cargo fleet to 20. I expect cargo revenue will roughly double by this time next year. We also executed redelivery off-lease of our first 737-900. This aircraft will also go into service this summer. We still have six aircraft that we own that are out on lease, redelivering through the end of 2026. These aircraft will provide the growth in our passenger fleet in the coming years. Including the freighters, we'll be able to grow block hours by about 30% through 2027 without a change in utilization or additional aircraft acquisitions.

此外，我們還根據與亞馬遜的最新協議接收了第一架貨運飛機。該飛機尚未投入使用。但到夏天，我們的貨機將全部八架，貨運機隊規模將增加二十架。我預計到明年這個時候貨運收入將大約翻倍。我們也完成了第一架 737-900 飛機的租賃期結束後的重新交付。這架飛機也將於今年夏天投入使用。我們仍有六架飛機處於租賃狀態，將於 2026 年底前交付。這些飛機將在未來幾年推動我們客運機隊的成長。如果算上貨機，到 2027 年，我們將能夠將飛行小時數增加約 30%，而無需改變利用率或購買額外的飛機。

In scheduled service and similar to the rest of the industry, we are seeing capacity rationalization starting to inflect unit revenues to the positive. Our TRASM was flat year-on-year for the fourth quarter. However, in December, we saw scheduled service TRASM increased almost 5% which is where January is. Capacity trends remain positive through the selling schedule. As underlying demand remains strong, I expect unit revenues continue to perform well. Our staff continues to deliver for our customers. Of note, our completion factor and mishandled bag grade, operational metrics that are particularly important to our low frequency model, are near the best in the industry.

在定期航班中以及與行業其他領域類似，我們看到運力合理化開始對單位收入產生積極影響。我們的第四季的 TRASM 與去年同期持平。然而，12 月份，我們發現定期航班的 TRASM 成長了近 5%，與 1 月份持平。在整個銷售計劃中，容量趨勢仍然保持積極。由於潛在需求依然強勁，我預計單位收入將持續表現良好。我們的員工將繼續為客戶提供服務。值得注意的是，我們的完成率和錯誤處理行李等級，對我們的低頻模型特別重要的營運指標，接近業界最佳。

After a strong 2024 you should expect more of the same from us in 2025. Margins at or near the top of the industry; high levels of free cash production; healthy growth at about 10% block hour increase; operational excellence; and continued balance sheet strengthening.

在經歷了 2024 年的強勁表現後，您應該期待我們在 2025 年取得更多相同的成績。利潤率達到或接近行業最高水準；高水準的自由現金生產；工時增加約 10% ，實現健康成長；卓越營運；並繼續加強資產負債表。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

現在我將把話題交給戴夫。

Thanks, Jude. We're pleased to report that Q4 was our 10th consecutive quarter of profitability. Both total revenue of $260.4 million and adjusted operating margin of 10.6% were the highest on record for Sun Country. With the exception of the second quarter of 2022 on an adjusted net income basis. We've been profitable in every quarter since our IPO in March of 2021. Additionally, 2024 was our fourth consecutive full year of profitability. Total revenue of $1.08 billion was our highest full-year on record driven by strong revenues in the charter line of business and the cargo segment operating margin for the year was 9.9%. And adjusted operating margin was 10.4%. Adjusted diluted EPS for the year was $1.05.

謝謝，裘德。我們很高興地報告，第四季是我們連續第 10 個季度實現盈利。總收入 2.604 億美元，調整後營業利潤率 10.6%，均為 Sun Country 有史以來最高水準。除 2022 年第二季的調整後淨收入外。自 2021 年 3 月 IPO 以來，我們每季都獲利。此外，2024 年是我們連續第四年獲利。總收入 10.8 億美元，創下我們有史以來最高的全年收入，這得益於包機業務的強勁收入，並且全年貨運部門的營業利潤率為 9.9%。調整後的營業利益率為10.4%。全年調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.05 美元。

These results speak directly to the resilience of the uniquely diversified Sun Country model. Industry overcapacity prevailed through much of 2024. But the capacity picture changed quickly in Q4 and we were very active in adjusting scheduled service capacity to match demand. While scheduled service ASMs in the first half of the year grew 17%, we trimmed growth in the second half of the year to less than 5%.

這些結果直接證明了獨特多元化的 Sun Country 模式的彈性。2024 年大部分時間，產業產能過剩現象普遍存在。但第四季度的運力狀況迅速發生了變化，我們非常積極地調整定期航班運力以滿足需求。雖然上半年定期航班 ASM 成長了 17%，但我們將下半年的增幅削減至 5% 以下。

Despite the significant removal and scheduled service flying, we're still able to hold growth and adjusted CASM to only 1.3% for the year. Unit revenues rebounded in the second half of the year as Q4 scheduled service TRASM was down only 1% on 3.5% growth in scheduled service ASMs. As industry capacity continues to rationalize, we're seeing a stronger pricing environment into Q1 of '25.

儘管大量取消定期航班，我們仍能保持成長，並將全年 CASM 調整至僅為 1.3%。下半年單位營收出現反彈，第四季定期航班 TRASM 僅下降 1%，而定期航班 ASM 成長 3.5%。隨著產業產能不斷合理化，我們看到2025年第一季的定價環境將會更加強勁。

I'll now turn to the specifics of the fourth quarter. First to revenue and capacity. Fourth quarter total revenue of $260.4 million was 6.1% higher than last year. Revenue for our passenger segment, which includes our scheduled service and charter businesses, grew 2.2% year-over-year. Average scheduled service fare also grew 2.2% year-over-year to $159.88. Scheduled service TRASM steadily improved during the quarter with December up 5.8% year-over-year. As we turn our focus to Q1 '25, we're expecting scheduled service unit revenues to be roughly flat with Q1 of '24 and 7% growth on sched service ASMs.

現在我將談談第四季的具體情況。首先是收入和產能。第四季總營收2.604億美元，比去年同期成長6.1%。我們的客運部門（包括定期航班和包機業務）營收年增 2.2%。平均定期航班票價也比去年同期上漲 2.2%，達到 159.88 美元。本季定期航班 TRASM 穩定提升，12 月年增 5.8%。當我們將注意力轉向25年第一季時，我們預計定期航班單位營收將與24年第一季大致持平，定期航班 ASM 將成長 7%。

Charter revenue in the fourth quarter grew 2.3% to $48 million and 5% growth in charter block hours. As a reminder, a portion of charter revenue is a reconciliation of fuel expense caused by the variance of fuel prices to the amount specified in our longer term charter contracts. As Q4 fuel prices were down 20%, we received less revenue tied to fuel reconciliation. Excluding this fuel reconciliation, Q4 charter revenue grew approximately 10% over last year. Ad hoc charter revenue growth was also significant as we saw it increase by 27% in the quarter versus last year. Excluding the fuel reconciliation, Q4 charter revenue per block hour was up 4.6% versus Q4 of '24.

第四季包機營收成長 2.3% 至 4,800 萬美元，包機飛行小時數成長 5%。提醒一下，包機收入的一部分是由於燃料價格與我們長期包機合約中規定的金額的差異而導致的燃料費用的調節。由於第四季燃料價格下降了 20%，我們與燃料調節相關的收入減少了。除此燃料調節外，第四季的包機收入比去年增長了約 10%。臨時包機營收成長也很顯著，我們發現本季臨時包機營收與去年同期相比成長了 27%。不包括燃料調節，第四季每小時包機營收較24年第四季成長4.6%。

For our cargo segment, revenue grew by 13.1% in Q4 to $28.6 million which was an all-time quarterly high. This growth came despite a 2.5% decrease in cargo block hours. Q4 cargo revenue per block hour was up 16% driven by the impact of a portion of the rate changes implicit in our extended Amazon agreement as well as annual rate adjustments. We continue to expect cargo flying to reflect sharply upward in 2025 as we take on an anticipated eight additional freighter aircraft throughout the year. One of the freighters has already been delivered and we expect it to enter service in late Q1. The revised Amazon contract rates will continue to escalate as we receive additional aircraft and will not be in full effect until the second half of 2025.

就我們的貨運部門而言，第四季營收成長了 13.1%，達到 2,860 萬美元，創下了季度歷史新高。儘管貨運飛行小時數減少了 2.5%，但仍實現了成長。受延長亞馬遜協議中隱含的部分費率變化以及年度費率調整的影響，第四季度每小時貨運收入增加了 16%。我們預計 2025 年貨運量將繼續大幅上升，因為我們預計全年將增加 8 架貨機。其中一艘貨輪已經交付，我們預計它將在第一季末投入使用。隨著我們收到更多飛機，修訂後的亞馬遜合約費率將繼續上漲，直到 2025 年下半年才會全面生效。

Turning now to costs. Q4 total operating expense grew 2.6% and 2.7% growth in total block hours. We continue to remain well-disciplined as demonstrated by full-year 2024 adjusted CASM, only increasing by 1.3% versus 2023. For full-year 2025, we expect our ex-fuel operating expenses to grow in line with our total block hours which are expected to increase between 9% and 10% versus full-year 2024. As a reminder, our eight additional Amazon aircraft will drive most of the growth in 2025. And we expect full- year scheduled service ASMs to decline between 3% and 5%, with the reductions occurring in Q2 through Q4.

現在談談成本。第四季總營運費用成長 2.6%，總運轉小時數成長 2.7%。我們繼續保持嚴謹的紀律，2024 年全年調整後的 CASM 證明了這一點，與 2023 年相比僅增長了 1.3%。就 2025 年全年而言，我們預計不含燃料的營運費用將與我們的總飛行小時數同步成長，預計與 2024 年全年相比將成長 9% 至 10%。提醒一下，我們新增的 8 架亞馬遜飛機將在 2025 年推動大部分成長。我們預計全年定期航班 ASM 將下降 3% 至 5%，降幅將出現在第二季至第四季。

The lower ASM productions will put pressure on adjusted CASM which we currently anticipate to increase mid to high single digits in 2025. This decline will happen from Q2 through the rest of 2025 as we are anticipating scheduled service revenue growth in Q1.

較低的 ASM 產量將對調整後的 CASM 造成壓力，我們目前預計到 2025 年 CASM 將成長中高個位數。由於我們預計第一季定期航班收入將成長，因此這種下降將從第二季持續到 2025 年剩餘時間。

Regarding our balance sheet, our total liquidity at the end of the year was $205.6 million. As of February 3, total liquidity stood at $226.7 million. Full-year 2024 CapEx was $88 million which includes the acquisition of three aircraft previously on finance leases. At this point, we do not need to purchase any incremental aircraft until we begin looking for 2027 or 2028 capacity. We expect 2025 CapEx to be between $70 millionand $80 million, with much of this spend on spare engines.

關於我們的資產負債表，我們年底的總流動資金為 2.056 億美元。截至 2 月 3 日，總流動資金為 2.267 億美元。 2024 年全年資本支出為 8,800 萬美元，其中包括收購三架先前透過融資租賃獲得的飛機。目前，在我們開始尋找 2027 年或 2028 年的運力之前，我們不需要購買任何增量飛機。我們預計 2025 年的資本支出將在 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元之間，其中大部分資金將用於購買備用引擎。

During the quarter, we appended a new C tranche to our existing 2019 double ETC, raising $60 million. This was used to pay down a significant portion of the term loan financing our five 737-900ER aircraft. This is expected to drive savings of approximately $800,000 in 2025 interest expense. Our leverage continues to improve, and we finished 2024 with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2 times. Additionally, we have extended the lease return dates on three of the four 737-900ERs currently on lease to another carrier. The four aircraft are now expected to return to us in May, September, and November of 2025, and in November of 2026. We have one 737-900ER returned to us in November 2024, and we expect this aircraft to enter revenue service in mid-'25. These extensions provide continued lease revenues as we focus our 2025 growth on our cargo business. As the leased 737-900ERs return to us, they'll provide the passenger service growth we expect in '26 and '27.

在本季度，我們在現有的 2019 年雙倍 ETC 中附加了新的 C 部分，籌集了 6000 萬美元。這筆錢被用來償還我們五架 737-900ER 飛機的大部分定期貸款。預計這將節省 2025 年約 80 萬美元的利息支出。我們的槓桿率持續改善，到 2024 年底，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2 倍。此外，我們還將目前租賃給其他航空公司的四架 737-900ER 飛機中的三架的租賃歸還日期延長了。預計這四架飛機將於 2025 年 5 月、9 月和 11 月以及 2026 年 11 月返回我們。我們於 2024 年 11 月退回了一架 737-900ER，預計該飛機將於 2025 年中期投入營運。由於我們將 2025 年的成長重點放在貨運業務上，這些延期將提供持續的租賃收入。隨著租賃的 737-900ER 回歸，它們將為我們在 26 年和 27 年提供我們預期的客運服務成長。

Let me turn now to guidance. We expect first quarter total revenue to be between $330 million and $340 million. Block hour growth 7% to 9%. We're anticipating our fuel cost per gallon to be $2.76. And for us to achieve an operating margin between 17% and 21%. Our business is built for resiliency and we'll continue to allocate capacity between segments to maximize profitability and minimize earnings volatility.

現在讓我來談談指引。我們預計第一季總營收在 3.3 億美元至 3.4 億美元之間。區塊小時數成長 7% 至 9%。我們預計每加侖燃料成本為 2.76 美元。並實現17%至21%之間的營業利潤率。我們的業務以彈性為基礎，我們將繼續在各個部門之間分配產能，以最大限度地提高盈利能力，並將盈利波動降至最低。

With that, we'll open it up for questions.

現在，我們將開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) We ask you, please limit to one question and one follow-up. One moment while we process the roster.

（操作員指示）我們要求您，請限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。我們正在處理名單，請稍等。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維‧尚克 (Ravi Shanker)。

Great. Thank you. Good morning, A couple here just to kick off. There's been some commentary on other airline calls about just strength in Europe in the first quarter. Just unusual, probably run by FX and such. How does that kind of impact you, guys? Does it kind of help with feeder? Does it potentially redirect some traffic away from domestic winter destinations to Europe, just obviously given how important 1Q is for you, guys?

偉大的。謝謝。早安，這裡有一對夫婦要開始新一天。其他航空公司對第一季歐洲業務的強勁表現也發表了一些評論。只是不尋常，可能是由 FX 等公司運營的。各位，這對你們有什麼影響？它對餵食器有幫助嗎？考慮到第一季對你們的重要性，這是否有可能將一些國內冬季目的地的客流量轉移到歐洲？

I'll just start with the obvious. We don't fly there. So I think the secondary effect is that there's a reallocation of capacity into the Transatlantic market that positively affects us. We're selling really well in the Mexican-Caribbean destinations. It certainly doesn't appear that there's a shift in demand out of those markets into the Transatlantic market. So I think on the whole, it's a positive. I mean, we would like to see strength everywhere for US airlines. There's no downside risk there.

我就從顯而易見的事情開始吧。我們不飛往那裡。因此，我認為次要影響是跨大西洋市場的運力重新分配，這對我們產生了正面的影響。我們的墨西哥-加勒比地區旅遊目的地銷售情況非常好。顯然，需求並沒有從這些市場轉移到跨大西洋市場。所以我認為總的來說這是積極的。我的意思是，我們希望看到美國航空公司全面崛起。不存在下行風險。

Got it. That's really helpful. And yes, I was referring to the indirect impact. And maybe as a follow-up, Dave, thanks, to the specific guidance there. But can you just help us, given the moving parts here, frame the trajectory of of margin and CASM evolution through the year, please?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。是的，我指的是間接影響。也許作為後續行動，戴夫，感謝那裡的具體指導。但是，考慮到這裡的變化因素，您能否幫助我們概括一下全年利潤和 CASM 演變的軌跡？

Yeah. I think the seasonal profile of the company, first quarter we expect to be really strong. We gave guidance. I think as revenues come in, we're very confident in that guidance. I think we'll follow a typical seasonal pattern. A lot of how the year plays out is going to be driven by the exact delivery dates of the Amazon cargo aircraft. We expect them to start service in March. And then enter service throughout the year. They should all be in by late summer into the fourth quarter. But I don't see anything abnormal from a seasonal profitability perspective for the company.

是的。我認為，從公司的季節性特徵來看，我們預計第一季將會非常強勁。我們給予了指導。我認為隨著收入的增加，我們對該指導非常有信心。我認為我們將遵循典型的季節性模式。今年的情況很大程度上取決於亞馬遜貨機的具體交貨日期。我們預計他們將在三月開始提供服務。然後全年投入使用。他們應該會在夏末至第四季之前全部到位。但從季節性獲利能力的角度來看，我並沒有發現該公司有任何異常。

One thing of note would be that the things that we were dealing with last year primarily were competitive encroachment into our network and that negatively affected the second and third quarters the most. As you can see, in the fourth quarter, we did quite well, the best we've ever done in the fourth quarter. And that variance, where capacity is now a tailwind as opposed to a headwind, is the strongest in the second quarter combined with the Easter shift into April. All else equal, we're not giving guidance into the second quarter. The second quarter has the most upside relative to the prior-year comps.

值得注意的是，去年我們主要處理的問題是對網路的競爭侵蝕，這對第二季和第三季產生了最負面影響。正如你所看到的，在第四節，我們的表現非常好，這是我們在第四節表現最好的一次。現在，運力已經成為一種順風，而非逆風。在其他條件相同的情況下，我們不會給出第二季的業績指引。與去年同期相比，第二季的上漲空間最大。

And from a capacity perspective, Ravi, probably, you can anticipate Q3 being the biggest draw down in scheduled service capacity for the year. Right now, it's looking to be around 10% reduction in Q3 and then starting to rebound in Q4.

從運力角度來看，拉維，您可能可以預期第三季將是今年定期航班運力下降幅度最大的季度。目前，預計第三季將下降 10% 左右，第四季將開始反彈。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks, Ravi.

謝謝，拉維。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore.

杜安‧芬尼格韋斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth)，Evercore。

Hey guys. Good morning. Maybe you could just speak to bookings patterns in the fourth quarter. It looked like there was a nice build in your ATL. And is there something around maybe seasonal changes or is the booking curve extending, maybe is it spring break? Any color you could provide on that would be great.

嘿，大家好。早安.也許您可以談談第四季度的預訂模式。看起來你的 ATL 中有一個不錯的構建。是否與季節變化有關，或者預訂曲線是否延長，也許是春假？如果您能提供任何顏色那就太好了。

I just want to make sure, when we look at ATLs, we should look at it on a year-on-year basis. Not as sequential. Because we have such strong seasonality. I'm assuming that you're doing that.

我只是想確保，當我們查看 ATL 時，我們應該以逐年為基礎來查看。不那麼連續。因為我們的季節性非常強。我假設你正在這麼做。

Sorry. We are. But I guess that sequential move is much stronger than it has been for the last few years, it looks like to us.

對不起。是的。但我認為，在我們看來，這一連續走勢比過去幾年強勁得多。

Yes. So a couple things. We're bigger in the first quarter than we were the prior year. That affects ATLs. As we mentioned, we got some TRASM tailwind. One of the changes that we're inflicting ourselves on our own booking is just holding capacity further out. So we're seeing less variability in our pricing as a particular flight sells. So we're building load factor early on. And then, as it moves close in, the mid range, we get less bookings because we see such strong demand close in these days, particularly in our larger EU markets. Anything else? Okay. Yeah. That's a complicated answer, but I'd say, generally, the output of that is higher fares is slightly lower load factors.

是的。有幾件事。我們第一季的業績比去年同期有所成長。這會影響 ATL。正如我們所提到的，我們得到了一些 TRASM 順風。我們對自己預訂做出的改變之一就是進一步保留運力。因此，隨著特定航班的銷售，我們發現定價的變化較小。因此我們很早就開始建立負載係數。然後，當它接近中檔時，我們收到的訂單就減少了，因為我們看到這些天的需求如此強勁，特別是在我們較大的歐盟市場。還要別的嗎？好的。是的。這個問題的答案很複雜，但我想說，一般來說，票價上漲會導致載客率略有下降。

Got it. Thank you. And then just to the extent that you can on the cargo expansion, can you just remind us of, I guess, the cadence of the aircraft that you're taking on? How that may have changed? And relatedly, the cadence of maybe the rate improvement as that business rolls on? Thank you for taking the questions.

知道了。謝謝。然後，就貨運擴展而言，您能否提醒我們您所乘坐的飛機的節奏？那可能會發生怎樣的變化？與此相關的是，隨著業務的開展，利率改善的節奏是否也隨之改變？感謝您回答這些問題。

Yeah. I think as we sit now, there's really no significant change from the guidance we've been giving for a while. The first aircraft now looks like it's probably going to be in service in late March --

是的。我認為，就目前情況而言，我們一段時間以來給出的指導方針並沒有重大變化。目前看來，首架飛機可能將於三月底投入使用--

Mid to late.

中後期。

Mid to late March. And then they should all be in service by Q4.

三月中下旬。然後它們應該會在第四季度投入使用。

By the end of August.

到八月底。

End of August, yes. So the rate of delivery is really fast. And the rate of the escalations -- the two additional escalations in our rate is basically similar to what we've been talking about before.

是的，八月底。所以送貨速度非常快。升級的速度 - 我們的另外兩次升級基本上與我們之前談論的類似。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基 (Brandon Oglenski)。

Good morning and thanks for taking the question. June or Dave, do you guys mind talking about network priorities as you get into the summer months? Especially as you flip some pilot capacity into the cargo business. And actually, should that help shape a better margin profile in those softer quarters for you, guys?

早上好，感謝您回答這個問題。June 或 Dave，你們介意在進入夏季時談談網路優先事項嗎？特別是當你將部分飛行員能力轉移到貨運業務時。實際上，這是否有助於你們在那些較為疲軟的季度中形成更好的利潤狀況呢？

Yeah, I'll take that one. It's pretty simple, I mean, the stuff that was on the margin last summer is going to be cut from the schedule. And the cuts are going to be a combination of -- in particular, last summer, we had a lot of margins that we put in to repel competitive incursion. Many of those will be suspended. And then there's going to be some carving, some capacity reductions in same-source markets that had particularly low yield. So it's a pretty easy schedule to write from a capacity planning perspective. And yes, we expect fares to be substantially higher based on those capacity moves and then a general reduction in OA capacity across our network and underlying strong demand. Yeah, we're forecasting some pretty strong revenue productions.

是的，我會選擇這個。這很簡單，我的意思是，去年夏天被擱置的內容將會從計劃中刪除。削減將是多種因素的綜合作用——特別是去年夏天，我們投入了大量資金來抵禦競爭對手的入侵。其中許多將被暫停。然後，在收益特別低的同一來源市場中，將會有一些削減，一些產能減少。因此，從容量規劃的角度來看，這是一個相當容易寫的時間表。是的，基於這些運力變動，以及整個網路的 OA 運力普遍減少和潛在的強勁需求，我們預計票價將大幅上漲。是的，我們預測收入會相當可觀。

Appreciate that, Jude. And then as you think about it, going into 2026, I know it's far out there, but should we be thinking scheduled capacity remains down at the beginning of next year as well?

非常感謝，裘德。然後想想，進入 2026 年，我知道這還很遙遠，但我們是否也應該認為明年年初的預定容量仍然會下降？

I think probably by mid-'26, we should be pretty close to back to where we were, let's say, at the end of the first quarter of '25. So in other words, shrink Q2, shrink Q3, and then start to rebound in Q4, throw into the first quarter of '26. So sometime between there and the middle of '26, we should be sort of back and then growing again.

我認為，到 26 年中期，我們應該就能接近回到 25 年第一季末的水平。換句話說，第二季萎縮，第三季萎縮，然後在第四季開始反彈，進入26年第一季。因此，從那時到 26 年中期，我們應該會有所恢復，然後再次實現成長。

Okay. Thank you, guys.

好的。謝謝你們。

Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Good morning, everyone. Just one on the margin outlook here, I know you've already given some details. But your fourth quarter operating margin is up just over 300 basis points year-over-year. Midpoint of the first quarter guide implies 100 basis point decline. Obviously, the fuel tail end is is smaller year-over-year. But just sound of that, the capacity environment continues to prove further upside on Amazon. On the 1Q year-over-year versus 4Q year-over-year margin comparison, is that just fuel or maybe the new flight attendant deals in there? Perhaps some conservatism around industry uplift? Any color there would be really helpful. Thanks.

大家早安。這裡僅討論一下利潤前景，我知道您已經給了一些細節。但你們第四季的營業利潤率年增了 300 個基點多一點。第一季指引的中點意味著下降 100 個基點。顯然，燃料尾端年比去年有所減少。但僅從這一點來看，產能環境繼續證明亞馬遜還有進一步上行的空間。將第一季與第四季的同比利潤率進行比較，這是否只是燃料費用，或者是新空服員的費用？也許是圍繞著行業提升的一些保守主義？任何顏色都會很有用。謝謝。

Yeah. So first of all, the new flight attendant deal is in there for part of the quarter. There was a little bit more significant increase in pilot pay in 2025. I would say just speaking generally, probably the first quarter of '25 we see at least as strong as the first quarter of '24. We put a range around the guidance. Everything looks good at this point. Probably w're not going to say much more than that, but I think we're very confident in the number.

是的。首先，新的空服員服務合約是在本季度的部分時間內簽訂的。2025年飛行員的薪酬將有更顯著的成長。我想說，總體來說，我們認為 2025 年第一季的表現至少會與 2024 年第一季一樣強勁。我們針對指導設定了一個範圍。目前看來一切都很好。我們可能不會透露太多，但我認為我們對這個數字非常有信心。

Got it. Understood. And then just on strong secondary aircraft pricing, do you think you'll still be able to find growth aircraft for later this decade? Can you just help us frame maybe like rough numbers how many aircraft you'd need past the ones you already have out on lease to get you through your growth plans for the rest of the decade? And do you feel confident being able to find opportunistic purchases for that volume of aircraft? Thanks.

知道了。明白了。那麼，僅從強勁的二級飛機定價來看，您認為本世紀後期還能找到成長型飛機嗎？您能否幫我們估算一下，除了已經租賃的飛機數量之外，還需要多少架飛機才能實現未來十年的成長計畫？您是否有信心找到機會購買如此大量的飛機？謝謝。

The answer is yes. There's two pieces that are out there to provide growth in the '26, '27, and '28. And those two pieces are the redelivery of the aircraft that are on lease with Oman, the 737-900, those five aircraft. And then a couple other ones that we have that are on lease, 737-800. So those come back into the fleet. And then, we still think there's room on the utilization front. We're in the sevens of seven hours range-ish. We think there's upside to that as well. So there's probably 30% to 40% growth just on the metal that we have right now. And that gets us in to '28, most likely. Used aircraft are expensive right now. We continue to be in the market and we'll buy opportunistically. But with very little activity in the market, we think there's significant growth left in the airline enough to get us through the end of the decade.

答案是肯定的。有兩種產品能夠為 26、27 和 28 年帶來成長。這兩部分是重新交付與阿曼租賃的五架 737-900 飛機。另外，我們也租了幾架 737-800 飛機。因此它們又返回艦隊了。然後，我們仍然認為利用方面還有空間。我們處於七到七小時的範圍內。我們認為這也有好處。因此，我們目前擁有的金屬產量可能會成長 30% 至 40%。這很有可能會讓我們進入'28 年。目前二手飛機價格昂貴。我們將繼續留在市場上並抓住機會進行購買。但由於市場活動很少，我們認為該航空公司仍具有顯著的成長空間，足以讓我們度過這個十年的末期。

Just a couple more comments. It's good not to be dependent on Airbus, Boeing, CFM, or Pratt & Whitney the way they're executing right now. So I'd rather have our fleet (inaudible) anybody else's. And then also we have a very reliable aircraft. We're not having to deal with any of the out-of-service issues that other airlines are dealing with associated with the new technology equipment. I mean, we already own these aircraft that Dave mentioned that are going to provide growth. I just feel really good about where we are on the fleet side.

還有幾點評論。最好不要依賴空中巴士、波音、CFM 或​​普惠公司目前的執行方式。所以我寧願讓我們的艦隊（聽不清楚）而不是其他人的艦隊。而且我們還有非常可靠的飛機。我們不必處理其他航空公司所面臨的與新技術設備相關的任何停止服務問題。我的意思是，我們已經擁有戴夫提到的這些將帶來成長的飛機。我對我們艦隊目前所處的位置感到非常滿意。

Yeah. Definitely a great spot to be in. Thanks for all that color.

是的。絕對是個好地方。感謝所有這些色彩。

Yeah.

是的。

Michael Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的麥可‧林伯格（Michael Linenberg）。

Hey. Good morning, guys. I guess a couple here. Jude, you talked about encroachment capacity. And I do see that as you guys scale back pretty meaningfully in, call it, spring or early summer, we are seeing some additional capacity come into your markets by some of those who are probably just there skimming. And so I guess the question is as you scale back, does it open up opportunities for others and maybe to establish share? Sort of thoughts on that.

嘿。大家早安。我想這裡有一對。裘德，你談到了侵占能力。我確實看到，隨著你們在春季或初夏大幅縮減規模，我們看到一些額外的產能進入你們的市場，其中一些可能只是在那裡瀏覽。所以我想問題是，當你縮減規模時，是否會為其他人帶來機會並建立市場份額？對此有這樣的想法。

Hey Mike. Let me take this opportunity to talk a little bit better about how we think about capacity. I think the innovation that the country brings to the market is that we basically say at any moment in time, what's the best thing a plane can do right now? And then we fill out the schedule until we either run out of things to do. And in which case, we park airplanes or we run out of planes. And every other airline generally would build an optimized day and repeat it many, many times. And then kind of tweak that day based on certain input. It's just a fundamentally different way to think about it.

嘿，麥克。讓我藉此機會進一步談談我們對容量的看法。我認為國家為市場帶來的創新是，我們基本上在任何時候都會說，飛機現在能做的最好的事情是什麼？然後我們填寫日程表，直到沒有事情可做。在這種情況下，我們就會停飛飛機，或是用完飛機。其他航空公司通常都會制定一個優化的日程，並重複很多次。然後根據當天的某些輸入進行一些調整。這只是一種根本不同的思考方式。

And what we want to get to, which probably is impossible, is where we don't have to fly, where our fixed obligations are so low and can be serviced by our cargo and track flying that's contractual that we can be entirely independent when we make capacity decisions.

我們想要達到的目標（這可能是不可能的）是，我們不需要飛行，我們的固定義務非常低，可以透過合約規定的貨運和軌道飛行來提供服務，以便在做出運力決策時我們可以完全獨立。

So when we look at summer markets, for example, that we're going to be pulling out, those markets work for us, but don't work for anybody else even if we're not in them. We're talking about Cleveland, Minneapolis, that can be supported by a carrier -- a leisure carrier like ours because there's leisure demand between Memorial Day and Labor Day sufficient to support a twice-weekly service pattern. But if you're going to fly it daily with the 321, at the back of the clock, it's going to be empty at zero fares.

因此，當我們考慮將要退出的夏季市場時，這些市場對我們來說是有利的，但對其他任何市場來說都是不利的，即使我們不在其中。我們談論的是克利夫蘭、明尼阿波利斯，這些地方可以由像我們這樣的休閒航空公司提供支持，因為陣亡將士紀念日和勞動節之間的休閒需求足以支持每週兩次的服務模式。但如果您每天搭乘 321 航班，那麼到了最後，該航班就會空載，票價為零。

Yes.

是的。

And so I'm just not at all -- I don't lose any sleep about some of the backfill opportunities that might happen for other airlines. We are keeping our footprint down in these, really, what I would consider strategically important markets I'd call out like JetBlue leaving Minneapolis, Boston. If you go way back in time in 2017, we used to serve that market up to three daily in the summertime. We're going to keep a healthy level of capacity in that market.

所以我根本不會——我不會因為其他航空公司可能出現的一些填補機會而失眠。我們在這些我認為具有戰略重要性的市場中保持著較低的足跡，例如捷藍航空將離開明尼阿波利斯和波士頓。如果回顧 2017 年，我們曾經在夏季每天為該市場提供多達三次服務。我們將保持該市場的健康容量水準。

So I think markets that can sustain any significant capacity level will continue to get service from us. And then markets that really only work for us are going to be the kind of markets that we're going to be pulling back on for summer next year.

因此我認為，能夠維持任何顯著容量水準的市場將繼續獲得我們的服務。那麼，真正對我們有利的市場將是我們明年夏季要撤回的市場。

Great. Very helpful. Thanks for that. My second -- just with all the headlines around tariffs, you're going all-in on cargo and I realize it's more about knock-on effects, secondary, or second-order effects from tariff and the impact to overall cargo and commerce and freight. With your Amazon contract, do you have minimums whether it's block hours or revenues? And so the plane flies and whether the plane is 90% full or 60% full, you're going to get compensated? Can you just talk about maybe downside risk protection? Thanks.

偉大的。非常有幫助。謝謝。第二，鑑於有關關稅的所有頭條新聞，您將全力投入貨運，我意識到這更多的是關於關稅的連鎖反應、次生效應或二階效應以及對整體貨運、商業和貨運的影響。與您的亞馬遜合約中，是否有最低限額，無論是工作時間還是收入？那麼飛機飛行時，無論飛機的載客量是 90％ 還是 60％，您都會得到補償嗎？能談談下行風險保護嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. So the way the contract -- maybe before speaking broadly about tariffs which is difficult to sort of assess especially given that we have one customer. There's no set minimums, but the way this contract is constructed is there is a fixed rate per aircraft and then a block hour rate on top of that. So it operates a sort of a de facto minimum because we get paid for each aircraft.

是的。因此，在廣泛談論關稅之前，合約的方式可能很難評估，特別是考慮到我們只有一個客戶。沒有設定最低限額，但該合約的建造方式是每架飛機有一個固定費率，然後在其基礎上確定一個飛行小時費率。因此，這實際上實行了一種最低工資標準，因為我們按每架飛機獲得報酬。

Generally speaking, the lower the utilization of the cargo fleet, the better the margins are for us because we can redeploy that pilot capacity, most of the calendar into more high-margin flying.

一般來說，貨運機隊的利用率越低，我們的利潤就越高，因為我們可以重新部署飛行員能力，將大部分時間投入到利潤率更高的飛行中。

And then you mentioned the load on the airplane. I want to call out, we can fly empty or full. It doesn't matter. The rates are the same. It's pass-through economics on fuel and stuff. So any other secondary effects of a full airplane, that doesn't impact the profitability of the cargo mark for us.

然後您提到了飛機的載重。我想大聲呼喊，我們可以空飛，也可以滿飛。沒關係。費率相同。這是燃料和其他物質的轉嫁經濟學。因此，滿載飛機的任何其他副作用都不會影響我們的貨運標誌的獲利能力。

Perfect. That's what I wanted to hear. Thanks. Nice quarter.

完美的。這正是我想聽到的。謝謝。不錯的季度。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I'm not sure if I heard this right, but I think at one point you said January, unit revenue was tracking up 5%, but you're assuming for the quarter scheduled service unit revenue flat. Did I hear that right? Is that -- I just want to understand that.

嘿。謝謝。早安.我不確定我是否聽得正確，但我認為您曾說過，1 月份的單位收入增長了 5%，但您假設該季度​​的預定服務單位收入持平。我沒聽錯吧？是的——我只是想了解這一點。

Yes. January is doing about what December did. We haven't closed January yet. But it looks like along the lines. February is going to be a softer month this year. So kind of the wash is -- And March is about in line. So that's kind of where we're at on a quarterly basis, roughly flat.

是的。一月的表現與十二月差不多。我們還沒結束一月。但看起來是這樣的。今年二月將會是一個較為疲軟的月份。洗滌就是這樣的——三月即將到來。所以，以季度計算，我們的業績大致持平。

What's driving the weaker February and flattish March relative to a strong January?

相對於強勁的一月，二月表現較弱、三月表現平淡的原因是什麼？

So March, there's the Easter shift. We should talk about a flat March with 5%. Unit revenue with 5% or 6% ASM growth, I think, is a pretty good result. In February, the weakness --

因此，三月就有復活節的轉變。我們應該談論 3 月的平穩成長（5%）。我認為，單位收入 ASM 成長率為 5% 或 6% 是一個相當不錯的結果。2 月份，--

I think it's some of it moving into sort of that April timeframe last year was so concentrated with the early holidays. And we have some strategic capacity growth out of Milwaukee into the Caribbean which we feel really good about meeting expectations, but there's just some year-over-year comp on that as well.

我認為，去年四月的一些情況與今年的提早假期有關。我們從密爾瓦基到加勒比地區的戰略運力有一些增長，我們很高興能夠達到預期，但同比也有一些增長。

I'd say, yeah, just more color would be the Caribbean is a little bit softer than previous year. But our core markets are really strong. So those are the markets that you would see called trunk wrap for us. So Phoenix, Vegas, Fort Myers, Orlando, Cancun are all really good and those become a more heavily weighted portion of the network in March where kind of early February is these once or twice-a-week markets into the Caribbean and those are a little off.

我想說，是的，加勒比海的色彩比去年稍微柔和一些。但我們的核心市場確實強勁。所以這些就是我們所看到的被稱為「行李箱包裝」的市場。因此，鳳凰城、拉斯維加斯、邁爾斯堡、奧蘭多、坎昆都非常好，這些地方在 3 月成為網路中更重要的部分，而 2 月初是這些每週一到兩次進入加勒比地區的市場，這些市場有點偏離。

Okay. With last week, UPS announced a 50% cut in their volume with Amazon. So Amazon, maybe it's gotta look somewhere else. Is this an opportunity for you or is this -- what you're doing for Amazon is pretty different than what the UPS is involved with? I don't know, is this an opportunity or risk?

好的。上週，UPS 宣布與亞馬遜的合作量減少 50%。因此，亞馬遜或許應該另尋他處。這對您來說是一個機會嗎？我不知道，這是機會還是風險？

Yeah. I think I don't see it as a risk in any way. Here's sort of the issue. The Amazon operates 20 narrow-bodies, and we're going to have them. So unless we sort of go to a different fleet type where they grow that narrow-body fleet, there's probably not a short-term opportunity to take advantage of what's going on at UPS and as you pointed out, it doesn't matter if the aircraft are more full, we get paid on a per block hour basis. Now over the long term, we love the Amazon business, the margins are great. So we think there's probably more growth ahead. But I don't think the near term UPS stuff is a near-term potential for us.

是的。我認為我並不認為這有任何風險。問題就是這樣的。亞馬遜營運 20 架窄體飛機，我們將擁有它們。因此，除非我們採用不同的機隊類型來擴大窄體機隊，否則短期內可能沒有機會利用 UPS 的現狀，正如您所指出的，無論飛機是否滿載，我們都是按每小時獲得報酬。從長遠來看，我們熱愛亞馬遜業務，其利潤率很高。因此我們認為未來還可能存在更多的成長。但我不認為近期的 UPS 產品對我們來說有短期潛力。

The Amazon growth is coming faster than we can grow the operation and also keep the performance that we expect. So we want to be able to absorb this growth, allocate more growth into our scheduled service, and then before we talk about cargo growth, if we could have it our way, that's how we do it. We pause on cargo growth after this 20-airplane expansion and then, for a couple of years at least.

亞馬遜的成長速度超過了我們擴大業務並保持預期業績的速度。因此，我們希望能夠吸收這種成長，將更多的成長分配到我們的定期航班中，然後在討論貨運成長之前，如果我們能按照我們的方式去做，這就是我們的做法。在增加 20 架飛機後，我們將暫停貨運量的成長，並且至少在未來幾年內暫停這項成長。

And then just lastly, if I can, I think you said $70 million to $8 million of CapEx this year. What are the other puts and takes for free cash flow? And how are you thinking about the buyback right now?

最後，如果可以的話，我認為您說的是今年的資本支出為 7,000 萬至 800 萬美元。自由現金流的其他利弊有哪些？您現在對於回購有什麼想法？

Yeah. Your CapEx numbers' right? We'll bepaying back a fair amount of debt in 2025. And a buyback is always on the table and we are looking at it. And as we see how the numbers come in, cash flow looks strong now, we'll make decisions. But we're not announcing a buyback right now, but we'll continue to be assessing it.

是的。您的資本支出數字對嗎？我們將在 2025 年償還相當數量的債務。回購一直在考慮中，我們正在考慮。當我們看到數字時，我們會發現現金流現在看起來很強勁，我們會做出決定。但我們現在不會宣布回購，但我們會繼續評估。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Thanks, Scott.

謝謝，斯科特。

Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

湯姆·菲茨杰拉德（TD Cowen）。

Hi everyone. Thanks so much for the time. Did I hear that right that you said 30% block hour growth through 2027? And would you mind just breaking that up between scheduled, charter, and cargo?

大家好。非常感謝您抽出時間。您說到 2027 年，區塊小時數將成長 30%，我聽得對嗎？您介意將其分為定期航班、包機航班和貨運航班嗎？

Well, that's just simple arithmetic of saying 2024 utilization applied to the in-service fleet that we will have after all the committed fleet is redelivered into the operation. So that, by definition, is passenger growth. So the 30% is basically -- as Jude just said, the redelivery of the leased aircraft and then improved utilization.

嗯，這只是簡單的算術，即將 2024 年的利用率應用於我們在役的機隊，即在所有承諾的機隊重新投入運營後。所以，從定義上來說，這就是乘客數的成長。因此，30% 基本上是 — — 正如 Jude 剛才所說，重新交付租賃的飛機，然後提高利用率。

Okay. Thanks. That's really helpful. And then just like longer term, how are you thinking about -- I know in August you talked about, with some of the volatility that other airlines are facing, wanting to keep your powder dry to to invest opportunistically, how are you thinking longer term about adding other focus cities or adding another -- and something else in addition to Minneapolis? Thanks again for the time.

好的。謝謝。這真的很有幫助。然後就像長期一樣，您是如何考慮的——我知道您在八月份談到過，考慮到其他航空公司面臨的一些波動，想要保持資金充足以便進行機會性投資，您是如何考慮長期增加其他重點城市或增加另一個——除了明尼阿波利斯之外還有其他什麼？再次感謝您抽出時間。

Well, we want to do it. I'd say we're putting in -- we're making the investments into markets that we think can support over time a Sun Country-type operation. So we've expanded into the Upper Midwest with origination service out of Milwaukee. We continue to support our summer Mexican-Caribbean service out of Dallas and Central Texas. So I think those are the kind of markets that we're going to be able to expand into at the end of the decade. But quite frankly, the next two years, it's going to be getting the network back to what it was in '24.

嗯，我們想這麼做。我想說的是，我們正在投入——我們正在投資那些我們認為能夠長期支持 Sun Country 類型營運的市場。因此，我們已將業務擴展到了中西部北部，並從密爾瓦基提供發起服務。我們將繼續支持達拉斯和德克薩斯州中部出發的夏季墨西哥-加勒比航線服務。所以我認為這些都是我們在未來十年內能夠拓展的市場。但坦白說，未來兩年，網路將恢復到 2024 年的狀態。

Yeah. I think if you just look a little bit longer term, '25 is all cargo, right? And then '26, cargo, basically the full-year effect of these new aircraft hitting the growth of the airline as well. And then '26, probably '27, are are refilling in Minneapolis and then some of these other focus cities. As we move to later in the decade, we think we can take this model to a lot of different cities. Grant mentioned one where we're doing some strategic growth now. But that's definitely on the table. But we got our hands full with all of our program in growth here over the next couple of years.

是的。我認為，如果你把眼光放得稍微長遠一些，25 年就全是貨物了，對嗎？然後是 26 年的貨運量，基本上這些新飛機的全年效應也影響了航空公司的成長。然後 26 年，可能還有 27 年，我們會在明尼阿波利斯和其他一些重點城市進行補充。隨著未來十年的到來，我們認為我們可以將這種模式推廣到許多不同的城市。格蘭特提到，我們現在正在進行一些策略性成長。但這絕對是有可能的。但是，在接下來的幾年裡，我們要全力以赴發展我們所有的專案。

I think also the point would be it's difficult to predict where those opportunities are going to be because of the pull down from Spirit and kind of how all that shakes out where they end up in their restructuring. And then Southwest is doing some pretty dramatic changes to their network and adjusting down their growth. So I think what we see is an opportunity a few years from now may not be what we see today. I think the main point is our capacity is going to be -- our growth capacity outside of Minneapolis isn't going to be available about two years. And when that happens, it's going to be probably a different network.

我認為關鍵在於很難預測這些機會將會在哪裡，因為精神航空的拖累以及它們最終在重組中會如何發展。西南航空則對其網路進行了相當大的調整，並放緩了其增長速度。因此我認為我們看到的幾年後的機會可能與我們今天看到的不一樣。我認為主要的一點是我們的產能——我們在明尼阿波利斯以外的成長產能將在兩年內無法實現。當這種情況發生時，它可能會是一個不同的網路。

James Kirby, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的詹姆斯柯比。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Most of my questions have been asked. Maybe just on the ad hoc charter segment, I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that it has been growth in the fourth quarter. I guess what drove that? Was that just better efficiency or demand? And I guess going forward, should we expect the charter segment to be proportionally down with scheduled service for the cadence of the year?

嘿。大家早安。我的大部分疑問都已經被問過了。也許只是在臨時包機部分，我想您在準備好的評論中提到它在第四季度有所增長。我猜是什麼導致了這樣的情況？這只是效率提升還是需求增加？我想，展望未來，我們是否應該預期包機業務量將隨著年度定期航班量按比例下降？

Yeah. The growth on a percentage basis in ad hoc charter in the fourth quarter was significant. And remember, most of our flying, 80%-plus is on the program side. So that percentage growth is up a relatively low base. But we did have a lot of football flying in the fourth quarter that really drove that growth. And we see that ad hoc growth continuing into the year into 2025. The cargo that the charter business (inaudible) is not going to be down on the order of the scheduled service business, maybe flat to low single digits kind of a number.

是的。第四季臨時包機的百分比成長十分顯著。請記住，我們的大部分飛行（80％以上）都是在項目方面。因此，該百分比增長率是在相對較低的基數上實現的。但我們在第四節確實有很多進球，這真正推動了我們的成長。我們認為這種臨時成長將持續到 2025 年。包機業務的貨運量（聽不清楚）不會像定期航班服務業務那樣下降，可能會持平到個位數以下。

Got it. That's helpful. And there no significant contract roll-offs in the next two years, I believe, right? (inaudible) was 2027 or is that incorrect?

知道了。這很有幫助。我相信未來兩年不會有重大的合約延期，對嗎？（聽不清楚）是 2027 年，還是不正確？

Yeah. We did work with them this year. So we feel really good about that contract into the future. And then I would just say for the fourth quarter, I would just add to what Dave said, I think it's just a very good illustration of the power of our model that when we brought scheduled service down, we had the ability to be more proactive on the ad hoc charter basis. And our customers are looking for that. We communicate really well with them. And when we have availability, we win business. So I would just say that. But yeah, we feel very good about our partnerships in the short term, the medium term. We're doing a really good job of delivering for our customers.

是的。我們今年確實與他們合作過。因此，我們對未來的合約感到非常滿意。然後我想說的是，對於第四季度，我只想補充一下戴夫所說的話，我認為這很好地說明了我們模型的威力，當我們減少定期航班服務時，我們有能力在臨時包機的基礎上採取更積極主動的行動。我們的客戶也正在尋求這一點。我們與他們溝通得非常好。當我們有空時，我們就能贏得業務。所以我只想說這些。但是是的，我們對短期和中期的合作關係感到非常滿意。我們為客戶提供的服務確實非常出色。

Okay. Got it. Thanks for the questions.

好的。知道了。感謝您的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Christopher Stathoulopoulos, Susquehanna.

克里斯多福‧斯塔圖洛普洛斯 (Christopher Stathoulopoulos)，薩斯奎哈納。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. I want to go back to the Amazon --

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。我想回到亞馬遜--

Hey Chris.

嘿，克里斯。

Good morning. Amazon business. So the dates March and then mid to late August, you'll have the full fleet in place. So I want to go back to the economics here. So there's a fixed rate per aircraft, which I'm guessing covers all insurance and things like that, and block hour commitment rate on top of that, which is utilization agnostic. And then how much visibility do you have into the block hours? So is it sort of as your schedule is given a week, a month in advance? And then is the flying going to be concentrated out of EVG or more ad hoc point-to-point? Just want to understand the more nuances here between the fixed block hour rate piece and then the commitments and how that kind of network looks and will ultimately shape over time. Thanks.

早安.亞馬遜業務。因此，從三月到八月中下旬，您將擁有完整的艦隊。所以我想回到這裡的經濟學主題。因此，每架飛機都有一個固定費率，我猜這個費率涵蓋了所有的保險和諸如此類的東西，此外還有一個與利用率無關的飛行小時承諾費率。那麼您對於飛行時間的了解程度如何？那麼，你的行程是不是提早一週或一個月就確定了呢？那麼飛行是否會集中在 EVG 之外還是更臨時的點對點？只是想了解固定小時費率和承諾之間的更多細微差別，以及這種網路的面貌和最終會隨著時間的推移而形成的樣子。謝謝。

Schedule development is a two-month schedule that it gets approved roughly six times a year. They come in and we try to work together to optimize the schedule for utilization inputs. But ultimately, it's their network and they fly where they want. I can't really comment on where we expect the planes to go because I don't really know. And that's the value Sun Country brings is that we can do sort of anything with the airplane based on our charter DNA really.

時間表制定為期兩個月，每年大約獲得六次批准。他們進來後，我們會嘗試共同努力優化利用投入的時間表。但歸根結底，這是他們的網絡，他們可以飛往任何他們想去的地方。我實際上無法評論我們預計飛機會飛到哪裡，因為我真的不知道。這就是 Sun Country 帶來的價值，我們可以根據我們的包機 DNA 使用飛機做任何事情。

But your comments about the rate structure are accurate in that there's a fixed component that includes margin and everything else. And then the variable costs associated with the operation are passed through in a fee basis. So from our perspective, it doesn't matter so much what the network looks like.

但是您關於利率結構的評論是正確的，因為有一個固定部分，其中包括保證金和其他一切。然後，與營運相關的變動成本將以費用形式轉嫁。因此從我們的角度來看，網路是什麼樣子並不重要。

Okay. So I heard --

好的。所以我聽說--

(inaudible) your problem. Go ahead.

（聽不清楚）你的問題。前進。

Yeah. So the two-month approval process. You have visibility into what March and through spring flying might look like at this point?

是的。因此審批過程需兩個月。現在您知道三月以及整個春季的飛行情​​況了嗎？

That's right. Yeah. Now this is going to be a (inaudible) period just because the dates that we get the airplane on the certificate. So we take a delivery, then we'll do some work to the airplane, get on the certificate, and then schedule it. And so there's going to be a little bit of noise about the fleet count and the utilization and the schedule as we integrate these aircraft.

這是正確的。是的。現在這將是一個（聽不清楚）時期，只是因為我們獲得飛機證書的日期。因此，我們接收貨物，然後對飛機進行一些工作，獲得證書，然後安排時間。因此，當我們整合這些飛機時，機隊數量、使用率和航班時刻表會出現一些波動。

Okay. And my second question, so you spoke to the favorable supply/demand balance here in the US. We've heard that from the peers. But as we look at a map of your network, are there areas or regions that are perhaps doing better or worse versus what looks like a low single-digit domestic seat growth for at least the first half and a point or two of demand on top of that? Just want to understand if there are pockets that are doing better or worse than as we think about domestic system as a whole. Thanks.

好的。我的第二個問題是，您談到了美國的供需平衡。我們從同行那裡聽說了這一點。但是，當我們查看你們的網路地圖時，與至少上半年國內航班座位數呈個位數低增長且需求增加一到兩個百分點相比，哪些地區或區域的表現可能更好或更差？只是想了解，與我們對整個國內體系的認識相比，是否有些領域表現得更好或更差。謝謝。

On the scheduled side, we're seeing, as I mentioned earlier, really strong demand into our really leisure trunk routes. I'd say the things that were uncertain going into this period are West Florida. They've had a lot of impact from storms down there. And we've got a ton of seats. We have five markets on the West Coast, and they're doing really well. I'd say Southern California is off a little bit. And then Caribbean, as I mentioned earlier. But the Mexican markets are doing really, really well. That was a point of uncertainty, just with all the geopolitical stuff going on. I don't know. I think you nailed it, yeah.

在預定方面，正如我之前提到的，我們看到對我們的真正休閒主幹航線的需求非常強勁。我想說，這段時期不確定的事情是西佛羅裡達州。那裡的風暴給他們造成了很大影響。我們還有很多座位。我們在西海岸有五個市場，而且它們的經營狀況非常好。我想說南加州的情況有點不對。然後是加勒比地區，正如我之前提到的。但墨西哥市場表現確實非常好。由於地緣政治因素的影響，這是一個不確定點。我不知道。我認為你說對了，是的。

The traditional spring break routes look really good year-over-year, just the capacity rationalization. And as we've mentioned, the Caribbean, there's pressure in the Caribbean, but because it's a strategic growth opportunity for us, we've done exceptionally well there. So we've added some -- these were single, weekly markets, we've added some to twice a week. That's a significant capacity adjustment. These are really strong markets. So there was always going to be some impact of that. And some competitors have seen that too. But we will continue to be in these markets for the long run and the customers are responding to what we've added.

傳統的春假航線比去年同期來看確實表現不錯，但運能更合理了。正如我們所提到的，加勒比地區存在壓力，但因為這對我們來說是一個策略性成長機會，所以我們在那裡做得非常好。因此，我們增加了一些——這些是單次的、每週的市場，我們將一些市場增加到每週兩次。這是一次重大的產能調整。這些都是非常強勁的市場。因此，這種現象總是會產生一些影響。一些競爭對手也看到了這一點。但我們將繼續長期留在這些市場，客戶也對我們增加的產品做出了積極的反應。

Yeah, it's a good point. But I should clarify. It's in the schedule because it's going to achieve some really high-level profitability. When I say weak, it's a year-over-year TRASM decline, but it's from such a high level in the prior year.

是的，這是個很好的觀點。但我應該澄清一下。它之所以列入計劃是因為它要實現真正高水準的獲利能力。當我說疲軟時，是指 TRASM 同比下降，但與前一年相比，它處於較高水平。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

I show no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Jude Bricker for closing remarks.

顯示隊列中目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將電話轉回給 Jude Bricker，請他作最後發言。

Thanks for calling in, everybody. We really appreciate it. I think we have a great story, and we're excited to share with you, guys. Have a great day, everybody.

謝謝大家的來電。我們非常感激。我認為我們有一個精彩的故事，我們很高興與大家分享。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。