Sleep Number Corp (SNBR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Sleep Number's Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. Anyone has any objections you may disconnect at this time.

今天是個好日子。歡迎來到 Sleep Number 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。 （接線員說明）今天的電話正在錄音中。任何人有任何異議，您此時可以斷開連接。

I would now like to introduce Dave Schwantes, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想介紹財務和投資者關係副總裁 Dave Schwantes。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Sleep Number Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining us.

下午好，歡迎來到 Sleep Number Corporation 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。感謝您加入我們。

I am Dave Schwantes, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. With me today are Shelly Ibach, our President and CEO; and Chris Krusmark, our Interim CFO and Chief Human Resources Officer. This telephone conference is being recorded and will be available on our website at sleepnumber.com. Please refer to the details in our news release to access the replay. Please also refer to our news release for a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures and supplemental financial information included in the news release or that may be discussed on this call.

我是財務和投資者關係副總裁 Dave Schwantes。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Shelly Ibach；以及我們的臨時首席財務官兼首席人力資源官 Chris Krusmark。此電話會議正在錄製中，並將在我們的網站 sleepnumber.com 上提供。請參閱我們的新聞稿中的詳細信息以訪問重播。另請參閱我們的新聞稿，了解新聞稿中包含的某些非 GAAP 財務措施和補充財務信息的對賬，或可能在本次電話會議上討論的內容。

The primary purpose of this call is to discuss the results of the fiscal period just ended. However, our commentary and responses to your questions may include certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties outlined in our earnings news release and discussed in some detail in our annual report on Form 10-K and other periodic filings with the SEC. The company's actual future results may vary materially.

此電話會議的主要目的是討論剛剛結束的財政期間的結果。但是，我們對您問題的評論和答复可能包含某些前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受我們的收益新聞稿中概述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，並在我們的 10-K 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他定期文件中進行了一些詳細討論。公司未來的實際結果可能會有重大差異。

I will now turn the call over to Shelly for her comments.

我現在將把電話轉給 Shelly，徵求她的意見。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our 2022 year-end earnings call. My SleepIQ score was 83 last night. Before providing details about our 2022 results, I'd like to express my appreciation to David Callen for his many contributions to Sleep Number and wish him well in his future endeavors.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2022 年年終財報電話會議。昨晚我的 SleepIQ 分數是 83。在提供有關 2022 年結果的詳細信息之前，我想感謝大衛·卡倫 (David Callen) 對 Sleep Number 做出的諸多貢獻，並祝愿他在未來的工作中一切順利。

Chris Krusmark Sleep Number, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resource Officer, has assumed the role of interim Chief Financial Officer as we conduct a search for a permanent replacement. Chris has been a Sleep Number team member since 2005 and has held a variety of financial and operational leadership roles during the past 18 years. Prior to joining Sleep Number, Chris served as a CPA in the assurance and advisory practices of EY and Arthur Anderson.

在我們尋找永久替代者時，執行副總裁兼首席人力資源官 Chris Krusmark Sleep Number 擔任臨時首席財務官。 Chris 自 2005 年以來一直是 Sleep Number 團隊的成員，並在過去 18 年中擔任過各種財務和運營領導職務。在加入 Sleep Number 之前，Chris 在 EY 和 Arthur Anderson 的保證和諮詢實踐中擔任註冊會計師。

During today's call, we'll review our 2022 financial performance, share early observations about the 2023 business climate and our outlook for the year and highlight 2022 strategic milestones that underscore our long-term orientation and position Sleep Number to capitalize on profitable growth opportunities when the economic environment improves.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將回顧我們 2022 年的財務業績，分享對 2023 年商業環境的早期觀察和我們今年的展望，並強調 2022 年的戰略里程碑，這些里程碑強調了我們的長期定位和定位 Sleep Number 以利用有利可圖的增長機會經濟環境好轉。

Fourth quarter net sales increased 1% to $498 million with an 18% decline in demand for the quarter, which was offset by the servicing of our excess backlog. Our Q4 loss per share was $0.24. For the full year, results included net sales of $2.1 billion, down 3% year-over-year and earnings per share of $1.60.

第四季度淨銷售額增長 1% 至 4.98 億美元，本季度需求下降 18%，這被我們處理過多積壓訂單所抵消。我們第四季度的每股虧損為 0.24 美元。全年業績包括淨銷售額 21 億美元，同比下降 3%，每股收益 1.60 美元。

Our 2022 performance reflects the sustained impact of external business and economic disruptions that began early in the year, constrained microchip supply, the spread of Omicron the war in Ukraine and skyrocketing costs drove record low consumer sentiment, which significantly reduced demand and pressured profits, yet as we navigated a steady stream of macro challenges, commitment to our purpose, galvanized our passionate team to find creative solutions to enhance our customers' experience.

我們 2022 年的業績反映了年初開始的外部業務和經濟動盪、微芯片供應受限、Omicron 烏克蘭戰爭蔓延以及成本飆升導致消費者情緒創歷史新低的持續影響，這顯著降低了需求並給利潤帶來壓力，但當我們應對源源不斷的宏觀挑戰時，對我們目標的承諾激發了我們充滿激情的團隊尋找創造性的解決方案來提升我們客戶的體驗。

We completed 2 important milestones that strengthen our Sleep health and wellness technology leadership for the future. We introduced the Climate360 smart bed with our new technology platform, the greatest innovation in our company history, and we completed our 5-year transition to a single assembly and fulfillment network.

我們完成了 2 個重要的里程碑，加強了我們未來睡眠健康和保健技術的領導地位。我們推出了帶有新技術平台的 Climate360 智能床，這是我們公司歷史上最偉大的創新，我們完成了向單一組裝和履行網絡的 5 年過渡。

With the start of 2023, we are experiencing early signs of improvement in our business associated with the following advancements. For the first time in 18 months, we have adequate chip inventory to support our full line of smart adjustable bases, including FlexFit 1 and FlexFit 2, which have been unavailable since September 2021. This enables us to offer our entire range of good, better, best to customers in an environment where price sensitivity remains high.

隨著 2023 年的開始，我們的業務出現了與以下進步相關的早期改善跡象。 18 個月以來，我們首次擁有足夠的芯片庫存來支持我們全系列的智能可調底座，包括 FlexFit 1 和 FlexFit 2，它們自 2021 年 9 月以來一直不可用。這使我們能夠提供全系列優質、更好的產品，最適合在價格敏感度仍然很高的環境中的客戶。

And we are operating with normal delivery times, thanks to improvements in our Microchip inventory. In addition, we are seeing somewhat more favorable economic indicators, including improving consumer sentiment. Although still near historic lows, consumer sentiment rose to nearly 65 in January, a 5-point sequential improvement versus December.

由於 Microchip 庫存的改善，我們的交貨時間正常。此外，我們看到一些更有利的經濟指標，包括消費者信心的改善。儘管仍接近歷史低點，但 1 月份消費者信心指數升至近 65，與 12 月份相比環比提高 5 個百分點。

With these improvements, we cautiously increased our planned media spend to capture near-term market opportunity. We are encouraged by the related improvements in demand, traffic trends, immediate efficiency since taking this action. Our quarter-to-date demand is down high single digits against our toughest 2022 comparison period and represents a notable sequential improvement from the fourth quarter.

通過這些改進，我們謹慎地增加了計劃中的媒體支出，以抓住近期的市場機會。自採取此行動以來，需求、交通趨勢和即時效率的相關改善令我們感到鼓舞。與我們最艱難的 2022 年比較期相比，我們的季度迄今需求下降了高個位數，與第四季度相比有了顯著的環比改善。

While these early 2023 trends are encouraging, we remain prudent in our planning with assumptions for 2023, reflecting continued uncertainty in the environment. We are prioritizing demand and margin improvement initiatives that support both the short and long term while also controlling expenses. This combination positions us for a strong rebound when consumer sentiment improves, although we are also prepared to execute additional contingency actions should conditions warrant.

儘管 2023 年初的這些趨勢令人鼓舞，但我們在對 2023 年的假設進行規劃時仍然保持謹慎，這反映出環境中持續存在的不確定性。我們正在優先考慮支持短期和長期同時控制費用的需求和利潤率改善計劃。這種組合使我們能夠在消費者情緒改善時實現強勁反彈，但我們也準備在條件允許時採取額外的應急措施。

For the full year, we expect EPS in the range of $1.25 to $2 and at the midpoint of our range, net operating profit growth of at least 20%. We expect to generate more than $100 million of cash from operations in 2023, including positive free cash flow.

對於全年，我們預計每股收益在 1.25 美元至 2 美元之間，在我們的範圍中點，淨營業利潤增長至少 20%。我們預計 2023 年將從運營中產生超過 1 億美元的現金，包括正的自由現金流。

Our recent strategic accomplishments directly contribute to our 2023 performance and benefit our business long term, further strengthening our leadership in consumer innovation and wellness technology. For example, since its introduction last October, our Climate360 smart bed has outperformed our sales expectations, and customers are waiving about how the smart bed temperature benefits, comfort and design are improving their sleep quality.

我們最近的戰略成就直接促進了我們 2023 年的業績，並使我們的業務長期受益，進一步加強了我們在消費者創新和健康技術方面的領導地位。例如，自去年 10 月推出以來，我們的 Climate360 智能床超出了我們的銷售預期，客戶對智能床的溫度、舒適度和設計如何改善他們的睡眠質量表示懷疑。

Here are a few customer comments. One customer said great first night, perfect bed for a couple with different sleep settings and temperatures. Another stated Climate360 has greatly improved my ability to follow sleep and stay asleep throughout the night. And a third noted, I bought this bet a month ago, and it's so worth it. While the Climate360 smart bed is still a small percentage of our total sales mix, better-than-expected demand is resulting in current deliveries being scheduled into late March.

以下是一些客戶評論。一位顧客說第一晚很棒，床非常適合一對擁有不同睡眠設置和溫度的夫婦。另一個人說 Climate360 極大地提高了我跟踪睡眠和整夜保持睡眠的能力。還有三分之一的人指出，我一個月前就下了這個賭注，非常值得。雖然 Climate360 智能床只占我們總銷售組合的一小部分，但好於預期的需求導致目前的交貨時間被安排在 3 月下旬。

Our suppliers have increased component output to consistently support the higher Climate360 sales volumes, and we expect to be on normal delivery times for this fabulous smart bed by the end of next quarter. Consumer response to the Climate360 smart bed is encouraging ahead of our planned introduction of our next-gen smart bed line, which is on track for the beginning of the second quarter.

我們的供應商增加了組件產量，以持續支持更高的 Climate360 銷量，我們預計到下個季度末，這款出色的智能床將按正常交貨時間交付。在我們計劃推出下一代智能床系列之前，消費者對 Climate360 智能床的反應令人鼓舞，該系列有望在第二季度初推出。

These next-gen smart beds incorporate the new technology platform, which not only supports our customers' adaptive sleep experience and related health and wellness benefits, but it also reduces supply chain complexity due to utilization of more readily available components.

這些下一代智能床採用新技術平台，不僅支持我們客戶的自適應睡眠體驗和相關的健康福利，而且由於使用更容易獲得的組件，還降低了供應鏈的複雜性。

In addition to our next-gen smart bed line, we plan to introduce our new lifestyle furniture collection in April, which extends our customers' sleep benefits. This furniture optimizes sleep and wake routines through ambient lighting designed to complement your circadian rhythm and embedded speakers that create a sound blanket to minimize noise disruptions. The collection also includes optional accessories that support changes in life stages and health conditions.

除了我們的下一代智能床系列外，我們還計劃在 4 月推出我們的全新生活方式家具系列，以擴大我們客戶的睡眠優勢。該家具通過旨在補充您的晝夜節律的環境照明和可創建聲音毯以最大程度減少噪音干擾的嵌入式揚聲器來優化睡眠和喚醒程序。該系列還包括支持生命階段和健康狀況變化的可選配件。

Early in home testing is showing very high satisfaction. And later this year, we will transition to our new Sleep Number app. This next evolution of our current SleepIQ app will integrate all Sleep Number digital touch points for a simpler experience for our millions of smart sleepers and further advance our connected health strategy.

早期的家庭測試顯示出非常高的滿意度。今年晚些時候，我們將過渡到新的 Sleep Number 應用程序。我們當前 SleepIQ 應用程序的下一個發展將集成所有 Sleep Number 數字觸摸點，為我們數百萬智能睡眠者提供更簡單的體驗，並進一步推進我們的互聯健康戰略。

We are supporting demand initiatives with strategic partnerships, new brand marketing and media. Since restoring our full portfolio, we've seen sequential demand in media efficiency improvement. We also plan to introduce the next generation of smart beds with a new marketing campaign. World-class partnerships amplify the performance and recovery benefits of Sleep Number smart beds with impact and scale.

我們通過戰略合作夥伴關係、新品牌營銷和媒體支持需求舉措。自從恢復我們的全部產品組合以來，我們看到了媒體效率改進的連續需求。我們還計劃通過新的營銷活動推出下一代智能床。世界級的合作夥伴關係通過影響和規模擴大了 Sleep Number 智能床的性能和恢復優勢。

At Super Bowl 57, we announced a 5-year renewal of our partnership with the National Football League as their official sleep and wellness partner. The NFL is one of the world's largest audience engagement platforms. Our brand health and digital engagement metrics from the past 5 years underscore the benefits of this partnership, which includes broadening our brand reach and deepening our brand relevance.

在第 57 屆超級碗比賽中，我們宣布與美國國家橄欖球聯盟 (National Football League) 續簽 5 年合作夥伴關係，成為他們的官方睡眠和健康合作夥伴。 NFL 是世界上最大的觀眾參與平台之一。我們過去 5 年的品牌健康和數字參與度指標強調了這種合作關係的好處，其中包括擴大我們的品牌影響力和加深我們的品牌相關性。

Our partnership has built unparalleled product adoption with 80% of NFL players owning Sleep Number smart beds. In addition to demand driving initiatives, improving gross profit is a top priority. We expect to begin realizing meaningful gross margin improvement in 2023 due to some easing and commodity costs, reduced cost premiums using -- from using broker parts and fewer expedited deliveries and operating efficiencies from a more even flow of microchips. We will also begin to benefit from operating with a single, more flexible and scalable assembly and fulfillment model.

我們的合作夥伴關係建立了無與倫比的產品採用率，80% 的 NFL 球員擁有 Sleep Number 智能床。除了需求拉動舉措外，提升毛利也是重中之重。由於一些寬鬆政策和大宗商品成本，使用經紀人零件降低了成本溢價，以及更均勻的微芯片流減少了加速交付和運營效率，我們預計將在 2023 年開始實現毛利率的顯著提高。我們也將開始受益於單一、更靈活和可擴展的組裝和履行模式。

Our integrated network enables greater visibility and control of product quality that will contribute to improved service and gross margin through increasing delivery, reliability and expanding opportunities for new in-home services, providing greater supply chain flexibility and disruption optionality and more balance in our manufacturing and distribution process, which reduces waste and drives cost savings. Each of these strategic advancements strengthens our competitive advantages, supports profit margin improvement and enables long-term value creation for all our stakeholders.

我們的集成網絡提高了產品質量的可見性和控制力，這將有助於通過提高交付、可靠性和擴大新的家庭服務機會來改善服務和毛利率，提供更大的供應鏈靈活性和中斷可選性以及我們製造和生產的更多平衡分銷流程，從而減少浪費並推動成本節約。這些戰略進步中的每一項都增強了我們的競爭優勢，支持提高利潤率，並為我們所有的利益相關者創造長期價值。

Now Chris will provide additional detail on fourth quarter and full year 2022 performance and our outlook for 2023.

現在，克里斯將提供有關第四季度和 2022 年全年業績以及我們對 2023 年展望的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Shelly, and good afternoon, everybody. I am pleased to join you today as Interim CFO of Sleep Number.

謝謝你，雪莉，大家下午好。我很高興今天作為 Sleep Number 的臨時首席財務官加入你們。

As we lead through this transition, we are fortunate to have an incredibly talented finance team, including Dave Schwantes, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A, who will join Shelly and me for Q&A. It is a privilege to lead this experienced team during the active search for our next Chief Financial Officer. In 2022, external factors had a significant impact on both our fourth quarter and full year results.

在我們領導這一轉變的過程中，我們很幸運擁有一支才華橫溢的財務團隊，其中包括投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Dave Schwantes，他將與 Shelly 和我一起進行問答。在積極尋找我們下一任首席財務官的過程中，我很榮幸能夠領導這個經驗豐富的團隊。 2022 年，外部因素對我們的第四季度和全年業績產生了重大影響。

Reported net sales for the fourth quarter were $498 million, up 1% versus the prior year. Our Q4 loss per diluted share of $0.24 was at the lower end of our guidance range. We delivered 93,000 smart bed units in the fourth quarter, consistent with expectations shared in our third quarter earnings call. Our delivered ARU increased 1%, primarily due to net pricing actions.

報告的第四季度淨銷售額為 4.98 億美元，比上年增長 1%。我們第 4 季度每股攤薄虧損 0.24 美元，處於我們指導範圍的下限。我們在第四季度交付了 93,000 個智能床，與我們在第三季度財報電話會議上分享的預期一致。我們交付的 ARU 增長了 1%，主要是由於淨定價行動。

Gross margin rate for the quarter was 54.7%, down 220 basis points from the prior year. We came in short of our gross margin rate expectations for the quarter as we faced modest downward pressure on delivered product mix and inefficiencies due to the uneven supply of chips. We offset most of this gross profit pressure with spending controls. Our 2022 full year results included net sales of $2.1 billion.

本季度毛利率為 54.7%，較上年同期下降 220 個基點。由於芯片供應不均衡，我們在交付的產品組合和效率低下方面面臨適度的下行壓力，因此我們未能達到本季度的毛利率預期。我們通過支出控制抵消了大部分毛利壓力。我們 2022 年的全年業績包括 21 億美元的淨銷售額。

Full year EPS of $1.60 reflects a 3% net sales decline, a 350 basis point reduction in our gross profit rate and operating expense deleverage from the sales decline. We reduced planned operating expenses more than $150 million during the year and ended the year with operating expenses up 1% year-over-year. In 2022, we prioritized investments in long-term initiatives, including our product innovation pipeline while reducing spending across the organization.

全年每股收益 1.60 美元反映了 3% 的淨銷售額下降，我們的毛利率下降了 350 個基點，銷售下降導致營業費用去槓桿化。我們在這一年中減少了超過 1.5 億美元的計劃運營費用，並在年底運營費用同比增長 1%。 2022 年，我們優先投資於長期計劃，包括我們的產品創新渠道，同時減少整個組織的支出。

Interest expense impacted 2022 EPS by more than $0.40 versus the prior year, primarily due to the average interest rate on our revolver increasing by over 200 basis points year-over-year. Despite the challenging environment, we generated $36 million of cash from operations and EBITDA of $148 million. We ended 2022 with $359 million of liquidity under our revolving credit facility and a leverage ratio of 4.4x EBITDAR, below our amended 5x covenant.

與上一年相比，利息支出對 2022 年每股收益的影響超過 0.40 美元，這主要是由於我們循環貸款的平均利率同比增長超過 200 個基點。儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們還是從運營中獲得了 3600 萬美元的現金，EBITDA 為 1.48 億美元。到 2022 年底，我們的循環信貸額度下的流動性為 3.59 億美元，槓桿率為 4.4 倍的 EBITDAR，低於我們修訂後的 5 倍契約。

Now let's turn to our outlook for 2023. We are excited to have had our full smart bed and base assortment in place since the end of December, benefiting from an improved flow of semiconductors. The improved chip supply has allowed us to normalize delivery times for our customers and will provide greater predictability for our manufacturing and fulfillment teams. We will also benefit from a full year of Climate360 smart bed sales introduced in October 2022 and our next-gen smart beds and lifestyle furniture, which we will begin introducing in the second quarter.

現在讓我們談談我們對 2023 年的展望。我們很高興自 12 月底以來已經擁有完整的智能床和底座系列，這得益於半導體流量的改善。改進的芯片供應使我們能夠為客戶規範交貨時間，並將為我們的製造和履行團隊提供更大的可預測性。我們還將受益於 2022 年 10 月推出的全年 Climate360 智能床銷售以及我們將於第二季度開始推出的下一代智能床和生活方式家具。

For 2023, we expect full year diluted EPS of between $1.25 and $2. Here are specific assumptions included in our 2023 outlook. We assume consumer sentiment will remain at or near current levels at least through the first half of 2023. The outlook assumes net sales are flat to down mid-single digits versus the prior year. This includes the expectations of a low to high single-digit net sales decline in the first half of the year as we face tougher compares.

對於 2023 年，我們預計全年攤薄後每股收益在 1.25 美元至 2 美元之間。以下是我們 2023 年展望中包含的具體假設。我們假設至少到 2023 年上半年，消費者信心將保持在或接近當前水平。展望假設淨銷售額與上一年持平或下降中等個位數。這包括隨著我們面臨更艱難的比較，預計今年上半年淨銷售額將出現從低到高的個位數下降。

We expect improvement in the back half of the year, with net sales down low single digits to up mid-single digits when we face easier comparisons and benefit from next-gen smart bed introductions. Our net sales guidance assumes 2 to 3 percentage points of headwind from year-over-year backlog changes. We expect our gross margin rate to improve by over 150 basis points in 2023, driven by modest improvements in commodity costs and avoidance of brokerage part premiums and expedited delivery costs, which impacted us in 2022.

我們預計今年下半年會有所改善，當我們面臨更容易的比較並受益於下一代智能床的推出時，淨銷售額將從低個位數下降到中個位數。我們的淨銷售額指引假設同比積壓變化帶來 2 到 3 個百分點的逆風。我們預計我們的毛利率將在 2023 年提高 150 個基點以上，這得益於商品成本的適度改善以及避免在 2022 年影響我們的經紀部分保費和加急交付成本。

The improved supply of semiconductors entering the year is also expected to significantly improve our labor utilization and enable production and delivery efficiencies across our manufacturing and fulfillment operations. Pricing actions taken in 2022, including $30 million of annualized actions taken in December of 2022 will provide ARU and gross margin rate benefit in 2023. We are carefully prioritizing our spending in the current environment, which is reflected in our guidance for the year.

進入今年以來，半導體供應的改善預計也將顯著提高我們的勞動力利用率，並提高我們製造和履行業務的生產和交付效率。 2022 年採取的定價行動，包括 2022 年 12 月採取的 3000 萬美元年度化行動，將在 2023 年提供 ARU 和毛利率收益。我們正在謹慎地優先考慮當前環境下的支出，這反映在我們今年的指導中。

At the low end of our outlook, we expect operating expenses to be down more than $30 million versus 2022. At the high end of our guidance, operating expenses are expected to be up less than 2% year-over-year. Our guidance also includes approximately $0.80 of pressure to fund broad-based participation incentive compensation programs. We expect next-gen smart bed launch costs of approximately $6 million to $7 million in 2023.

在我們展望的低端，我們預計運營費用將比 2022 年下降超過 3000 萬美元。在我們的指引的高端，運營費用預計同比增長不到 2%。我們的指導意見還包括為基礎廣泛的參與激勵補償計劃提供資金的大約 0.80 美元的壓力。我們預計 2023 年下一代智能床的推出成本約為 600 萬至 700 萬美元。

At the midpoint of our guidance range, we expect to grow our operating profit by at least 20% in 2023 and our operating profit rate by approximately 100 basis points, most notably from the expected improvement in our gross profit rate. We expect 2023 EBITDA to grow more than 20% versus 2022 at the midpoint of our range with at least 150 basis point improvement in our EBITDA margin.

在我們指導範圍的中點，我們預計 2023 年我們的營業利潤將增長至少 20%，我們的營業利潤率將增長約 100 個基點，最顯著的是我們毛利率的預期改善。我們預計 2023 年 EBITDA 將比 2022 年增長 20% 以上，處於我們範圍的中點，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率至少提高 150 個基點。

Our outlook assumes interest expense of approximately $35 million for 2023 with an expected borrowing rate on our credit facility of 7% compared to an average rate of under 4% in 2022. We are planning for an effective tax rate of 27% for the year, including discrete tax expense in the first quarter, primarily due to stock compensation accounting. We intend to generate more than $100 million in cash from operations in 2023 and positive free cash flows and planned no share repurchases for the year.

我們的展望假設 2023 年的利息支出約為 3500 萬美元，我們信貸額度的預期借款利率為 7%，而 2022 年的平均利率低於 4%。我們計劃今年的有效稅率為 27%，包括第一季度的離散稅費，主要是由於股票薪酬會計。我們打算在 2023 年從運營中產生超過 1 億美元的現金和正的自由現金流，並且計劃在這一年不進行股票回購。

We expect to end 2023 with debt leverage below 4x EBITDAR. For the first quarter of 2023, we expect net sales to be flat to up low single digits versus the same quarter last year and expect to deliver approximately 90,000 smart bed units.

我們預計到 2023 年底債務槓桿將低於 4 倍 EBITDAR。對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計淨銷售額與去年同期相比持平至低個位數，並預計將交付約 90,000 套智能床。

I will now turn the call back to Shelly for a few closing thoughts before turning to Q&A.

在轉向問答之前，我現在將把電話轉回雪莉，聽取一些結束語。

Prioritizing innovation leadership and maintaining thoughtful strategic progress while prudently managing costs position Sleep Number to capitalize more quickly on profitable growth opportunities in the future. It is inspiring to engage with Sleep Number team members throughout our company. I've been touched by their selfless courage and commitment and so truly grateful for their hard work and their passion for our life-changing sleep innovations, which are creating a more sustainable future for all of us.

優先考慮創新領導力和保持深思熟慮的戰略進展，同時審慎地管理成本，使 Sleep Number 能夠在未來更快地利用盈利增長機會。與整個公司的 Sleep Number 團隊成員進行互動令人鼓舞。我被他們無私的勇氣和承諾所感動，非常感謝他們的辛勤工作和他們對我們改變生活的睡眠創新的熱情，這些創新正在為我們所有人創造一個更可持續的未來。

Now Chris, Dave and I will be happy to take your questions. Kelly Yan [ph], please open the line for questions.

現在克里斯、戴夫和我很樂意回答您的問題。 Kelly Yan [ph]，請打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll hear first today from Bobby Griffin with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們今天將首先聽到 Bobby Griffin 和 Raymond James 的消息。

I guess, first, I want to touch -- it seems like a good bit of the outlook here to get a little bit better in profitability does center around the recovery in gross margin. And with this business, it really does tick around having gross margin is close to above 60% as you can get. So can we just unpack a little further for everybody here, the visibility into the 150 basis points plus. I understand there's been a lot going on in the supply chain. But is it more on things now that you actually have visibility into? You have the chips, you have the costs under control. You kind of have the delivery aspect or is there still some variability in there for us to keep in mind?

我想，首先，我想談談 - 似乎這裡的前景很好，以提高盈利能力，確實圍繞著毛利率的複蘇。對於這項業務，毛利率確實接近 60% 以上。那麼我們能否為這裡的每個人進一步解壓縮，150 個基點以上的可見性。我知道供應鏈中發生了很多事情。但是，現在您真正了解的事情是否更多？你有籌碼，你可以控製成本。您有交付方面的問題，還是仍然有一些變化需要我們牢記？

Hey, Bobby. This is Dave. Certainly, improving our gross margin rate, it's a big priority for us for 2023. And as Shelly mentioned, we're looking to improve that by over 150 basis points during the year. As we've talked about over the last couple of years, we've absorbed significant commodity pressures in our cost of goods sold, along with really inefficiencies that we've also taken on because of the uneven flow of chips.

嘿，鮑比。這是戴夫。當然，提高我們的毛利率是我們 2023 年的首要任務。正如 Shelly 所提到的，我們希望在這一年中將毛利率提高 150 多個基點。正如我們在過去幾年中談到的那樣，我們在銷售商品成本方面承受了巨大的商品壓力，同時由於芯片流動不均勻，我們也面臨著效率低下的問題。

So the good news is as we enter '23, it's the first time since really September of last year that we've had the full product assortment in place and the even flow at chips that we really need to get efficiencies. So maybe turning to some of the specific drivers that we look for, for '23.

所以好消息是，當我們進入 23 年時，這是自去年 9 月以來我們第一次擁有完整的產品分類和我們真正需要提高效率的芯片的均勻流動。因此，也許轉向我們尋找的一些特定驅動程序，用於 '23。

Starting with, we expect about $15 million to $20 million of benefit from the easing of commodities. So we've seen some modest easing of commodities here late in the year, specifically in foam. And we also are excited to no longer be procuring parts in the broker markets, which we paid premiums in those markets during last year to procure some of our components. And also, we were paying expedited delivery costs.

首先，我們預計商品寬鬆政策將帶來約 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的收益。因此，我們在今年晚些時候看到這裡的商品出現了一些溫和的寬鬆，特別是在泡沫方面。我們也很高興不再在經紀人市場採購零部件，去年我們在這些市場支付了溢價以採購我們的一些零部件。而且，我們還支付了加急交貨費用。

So if you combine the commodity easing with some avoidance of some of those costs, we see that worth about $15 million to $20 million of year-over-year benefit, which is about 80 basis points. The second area that we look for is really pricing. So we did take pricing in August of '22. We also took about $30 million worth in December of '22.

因此，如果您將商品寬鬆政策與對其中一些成本的一些避免結合起來，我們會看到價值約 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的同比收益，約為 80 個基點。我們尋找的第二個領域是真正的定價。所以我們確實在 22 年 8 月進行了定價。 2022 年 12 月，我們還獲得了價值約 3000 萬美元的資金。

And as you look at those pricing actions benefiting our '23 results, we expect that to be worth about 80 basis points of benefit as well. The third area would really be around mix. So we're excited to have our Climate360 now in our lineup, but it was introduced in October, had really strong demand for it during the fourth quarter. And several of those units are sitting in our backlog as we enter '23.

當您查看那些有利於我們 23 年業績的定價行動時，我們預計這也將帶來大約 80 個基點的收益。第三個領域實際上是圍繞混合。所以我們很高興我們的 Climate360 現在加入我們的陣容，但它是在 10 月份推出的，在第四季度對它的需求非常強勁。當我們進入 23 年時，其中幾個單元正處於積壓狀態。

And we look for those units along with a full year of Climate360 sales benefiting our gross margin rate for the year. And we do expect maybe to throw one item go in the other direction, some modest deleverage from expected lower unit volume for the year. So that's going to create some fixed cost deleverage across our business. So really kind of 3 main buckets with really one headwind being deleveraged from unit volumes.

我們尋找這些單位以及全年的 Climate360 銷售，這有利於我們當年的毛利率。而且我們確實預計可能會將一個項目朝另一個方向發展，從今年預期的較低單位銷量中適度去槓桿化。因此，這將在我們的業務中創造一些固定成本去槓桿化。所以真的有 3 個主要桶，真正的一個逆風正在從單位數量中去槓桿化。

I guess secondly for me, you guys talked a little bit about the shape of the year with back half revenue a little stronger than front half revenue, given the comparisons. Is there any issues on the shape of profitability as it relates to the covenants? I know you guys did some work to, I think, take it up to 5x as the ceiling for the covenant. Anything we have to think about for the first or second quarter covenant related?

我想其次對我來說，你們談到了今年的情況，考慮到比較，後半部分收入比前半部分收入強一點。與契約相關的盈利能力的形狀是否存在任何問題？我知道你們做了一些工作，我認為，將它作為契約的上限提高到 5 倍。關於第一季度或第二季度的契約，我們有什麼需要考慮的嗎？

Yes. So Bobby, as we look at the shape of the year, we certainly expect the net sales performance to be a little bit stronger in the first half of the year. Part of that is just the compares we have are going to be much tougher particularly in Q1. So we do see -- if you think about the proportionality of sales, a little more sales falling in the first half of the year, a little less than the first half, a little more in the back half, sorry.

是的。所以 Bobby，當我們審視今年的情況時，我們當然預計今年上半年的淨銷售業績會有所增強。部分原因是我們的比較將更加艱難，尤其是在第一季度。所以我們確實看到——如果你考慮銷售額的比例，上半年的銷售額會下降一點，比上半年少一點，下半年多一點，抱歉。

And if you look at the EPS splits, I'll say at the midpoint of the guidance, I'd probably think about our EPS kind of being 40% to 45% in the first half of the year and the rest of it being in the back half of the year. Relative to the covenants, we did have an amendment that we did back in October that did amend our covenants to be up to 5x leverage through the second quarter, and our forecasts have us well within those leverage covenants through the second quarter and through the balance of the year.

如果你看一下 EPS 拆分，我會在指導的中點說，我可能會認為我們的 EPS 在今年上半年是 40% 到 45%，其餘時間在下半年。相對於契約，我們確實有一個我們在 10 月份所做的修正案，該修正案確實將我們的契約修改為到第二季度達到 5 倍的槓桿率，並且我們的預測使我們在第二季度和整個餘額中都符合這些槓桿契約的一年。

Best of luck here navigating this.

祝你好運。

We'll hear next today from Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.

接下來，我們將在今天聽取 Peter Keith 和 Piper Sandler 的講話。

Looking at the sales guide, there's a lot of puts and takes, and I was hoping you could kind of break it down for us just in terms of how you're thinking about demand versus pricing versus backlog recognition and any other factors that I might not be thinking of.

看看銷售指南，有很多建議和要求，我希望你能根據你是如何考慮需求、定價、積壓識別以及我可能認為的任何其他因素來為我們分解一下沒想到。

I'll start, and Dave can provide some additional color here. First of all, just start with we're really pleased with the sequential demand improvement that we've experienced since restoring our full line of smart adjustable basis with normal delivery time lines as a result of having the semiconductor chip inventory. So we're well-positioned with our chip inventory for the balance of the year. And February represented another step up from January. So we're happy to see that against several difficult compares. And at the same time, we know that as we progress through the year, that compares get easier. So that's a little bit on the shape.

我會開始，戴夫可以在這裡提供一些額外的顏色。首先，我們對自從由於擁有半導體芯片庫存而恢復我們的全系列智能可調基礎和正常交貨時間線以來經歷的連續需求改善感到非常滿意。因此，我們在今年餘下時間的芯片庫存方面處於有利地位。與 1 月相比，2 月又向前邁進了一步。所以我們很高興看到它與幾個困難的比較相比。同時，我們知道，隨著這一年的進步，比較會變得更容易。所以這有點關於形狀。

Yes. I think, Peter, maybe to add a little bit of color on both ARU and units, which I think is embedded in your question. So we are looking at ARU being up at least mid-single digits for the year. There's a few areas that we think are going to be benefiting us in the year #1, pricing. So the pricing I mentioned in the gross profit question, that's going to be a plus up as well as really the benefit of mix. So the Climate360 smart bed, it starts at about $10,000 for that product.

是的。彼得，我認為也許可以在 ARU 和單位上添加一點顏色，我認為這已包含在您的問題中。因此，我們預計 ARU 今年至少會增長中等個位數。我們認為有幾個領域將使我們在第一年受益，定價。所以我在毛利問題中提到的定價，這將是一個加分項，也是混合的真正好處。因此，Climate360 智能床的起價約為 10,000 美元。

And as that gets in our mix, it really helps with ARU as well. So that's how we see the ARU side of the business implied in our guidance of being flat to down mid-single digits for net sales would imply we expect units to be down year-over-year. I think as we progress through the year, we do expect the greatest challenges in the first quarter and then expect those to moderate, particularly as we're up against the easier compares to balance of the year.

當它進入我們的組合時，它對 ARU 也確實有幫助。因此，這就是我們如何看待業務的 ARU 方面，在我們的淨銷售額持平至下降中等個位數的指導中暗示我們預計單位將同比下降。我認為隨著我們今年的進展，我們確實預計第一季度將面臨最大的挑戰，然後預計這些挑戰會緩和，尤其是當我們面臨比今年平衡更容易的挑戰時。

So maybe just to touch on quickly on the industry. The industry data isn't out yet for the year, but we actually believe that like others that I think the bottom has probably been reached on units in '22, but we're just not frankly expecting any significant improvement in units in '23. And we really think it's prudent just based on how we see the metrics in our business to be cautious about the top line and not get ahead of ourselves in terms of that unit expectations for the year.

所以也許只是為了快速接觸這個行業。今年的行業數據尚未公佈，但我們實際上相信，與其他人一樣，我認為 22 年的單位可能已經觸底，但坦率地說，我們並不期望 23 年的單位有任何顯著改善.我們真的認為，基於我們如何看待我們業務中的指標，對收入持謹慎態度，而不是在今年的單位預期方面超越自己，這是謹慎的做法。

Okay. And within that, I think maybe Chris said it, but I didn't get it down, but how much backlog revenue would be recognized in 2023?

好的。其中，我想也許克里斯說過，但我沒有記下來，但 2023 年將確認多少積壓收入？

Yes. So Peter, we ended the year with about $40 million of excess backlog, and largely, we expect that to benefit the first half of the year. So we talked about year-over-year, we still expect a drag because of year-over-year backlog changes. So we did get more benefit from backlog in '22 than '23. But specifically, that backlog that we have at the end of the year, we do expect it to largely benefit the first half of the year.

是的。所以彼得，我們在今年結束時積壓了大約 4000 萬美元，而且在很大程度上，我們預計這將使今年上半年受益。所以我們談到了同比，我們仍然預計會因為同比積壓變化而受到拖累。因此，與 23 年相比，22 年我們確實從積壓中獲得了更多好處。但具體來說，我們在年底積壓的訂單，我們確實預計它將在很大程度上受益於今年上半年。

And another topic that's getting more attention is just financing costs with the rise in interest rates. So we know you guys through a third-party finance about 50% of your beds. What are you guys seeing with financing costs? And maybe are you -- is that going to show up in the P&L at all or do you have to cut back on the months of interest refinancing provided?

另一個越來越受到關注的話題是利率上升帶來的融資成本。所以我們通過第三方融資了解你們大約 50% 的床位。你們對融資成本有何看法？也許你 - 這會完全出現在損益表中，還是你必須減少提供的利息再融資月數？

We utilized both discounts and financing as conversion tools in our business, and we think about them as a total bucket and have pretty creative approaches depending on the current environment to be able to execute in different ways. Financing is definitely more costly and in fact, added about 100 basis points of pressure in 2022. So as we are here in 2023, we're actively managing the financing cost along with our discount bucket. So we're thinking about it in totality. I think a good example would be during the President's event. We had 24 months financing on the low end of our line that carries a lower gross margin and then 36 months on the balance of our line. So just being creative in our approach to be able to mitigate that cost while still driving the performance.

我們在業務中同時使用折扣和融資作為轉換工具，我們將它們視為一個整體，並根據當前環境採用非常有創意的方法，以便能夠以不同的方式執行。融資成本肯定更高，事實上，到 2022 年增加了大約 100 個基點的壓力。因此，當我們在 2023 年來到這裡時，我們正在積極管理融資成本以及我們的折扣桶。所以我們正在全面考慮它。我認為總統活動期間就是一個很好的例子。我們在毛利率較低的低端產品線進行了 24 個月的融資，然後在我們的產品線餘額上進行了 36 個月的融資。因此，只要在我們的方法中發揮創意，就可以在降低成本的同時仍然提高性能。

We'll hear now from Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們現在將聽到來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas 的消息。

The first just around the assortment, and I know that you had limited or no availability of some of your popular selling adjustable basis. I was wondering, if it's possible just to frame up for us, and I know you have to estimate in that puts and takes. But how you maybe think of what kind of headwind you had from an assortment standpoint from not having products available and when we think we can get to the point where they're all available with the assortment that you want to have here for this year.

第一個就在品種附近，我知道你的一些受歡迎的可調節基礎的可用性有限或沒有。我想知道，是否有可能只是為我們陷害，而且我知道你必須估計那個投入和需要。但是，從分類的角度來看，你可能會怎麼想你有什麼樣的逆風，因為沒有可用的產品，以及當我們認為我們可以達到今年你想要的分類時，它們都可用的地步。

We had the constrained Microchip challenge for the past 18 months. And that resulted in us not having the FlexFit 1 in the FlexFit 2 adjustable base in our assortment up until December 26 of 2022. So at first, it didn't appear to be hurting our demand. But once the consumer sentiment fell last May, it really had an impact on our performance from what we could see, and we could see that on the digital behavior from customers. And so we are so excited to be in this position of having the Microchip inventory not only for our full assortment, which means we have good, better and best, smart adjustable basis to support our full line, but also having the normal delivery time periods.

在過去的 18 個月裡，我們遇到了受限的 Microchip 挑戰。這導致我們直到 2022 年 12 月 26 日才在 FlexFit 2 可調節底座中提供 FlexFit 1。所以起初，它似乎並沒有損害我們的需求。但是一旦去年 5 月消費者信心下降，它確實對我們的表現產生了影響，我們可以從客戶的數字行為中看到這一點。因此，我們很高興能夠擁有 Microchip 庫存，不僅我們的品種齊全，這意味著我們擁有良好、更好和最好的智能可調基礎來支持我們的全線，而且還有正常的交貨時間.

I guess the best way I can describe how big of an impact it had would be the sequential improvement that we've had from December in fourth quarter, having demand down 18%. And then right now, quarter-to-date, down high single digits. That's a pretty significant improvement that we saw right away with the change. And then the media effectiveness has been real strong as well. And then here in February, another step-up in performance during our most difficult compare. So we're super excited to be operating on all cylinders again and having the effectiveness of our selling process with good, better, best.

我想我能描述其影響有多大的最好方式是我們從去年 12 月到第四季度的環比改善，需求下降了 18%。然後現在，季度至今，下降了高個位數。這是一個非常顯著的改進，我們立即看到了變化。然後媒體的效果也非常強大。然後在 2 月，在我們最困難的比較期間，性能又一次提升。因此，我們非常高興能再次全速運轉，並以良好、更好、最好的方式有效地銷售我們的銷售流程。

And then the Climate360 on top of that and then heading into the balance of the year with introducing our next generation of smart beds with new creative and lots of initiatives to be able to drive performance, especially as the consumer environment or when the consumer environment improves.

然後是最重要的 Climate360，然後進入今年的平衡，推出我們的下一代智能床，具有新的創意和許多能夠推動性能的舉措，特別是在消費者環境或消費者環境改善時.

And to dovetail off of that, can you talk a little bit about the approach you'll be taking with advertising and with operations kind of tightening up here, given that the world is hopefully getting better than it was during the height of the pandemic. Is this -- how are you feeling about perhaps putting more into advertising here to see if you can drive some greater traffic?

為了與此相吻合，你能談談你將在廣告和運營方面採取的方法嗎？考慮到世界有望比大流行高峰期變得更好。這是——您對在這裡投入更多廣告以查看是否可以吸引更多流量的感覺如何？

Well, we started doing that when we return to our full assortment and normalized delivery time periods, at least against our plans and -- but we are at the same time, we're driving media effectiveness. And I think that's important to highlight. So we're going to be prudent in our approach and continue to drive performance and cautiously take steps forward that we're definitely making some good progress, and we have new creative to support our next-gen smart beds.

好吧，當我們恢復到完整的分類和標準化的交付時間段時，我們開始這樣做，至少與我們的計劃相反——但與此同時，我們正在提高媒體效率。我認為強調這一點很重要。因此，我們將謹慎對待我們的方法並繼續推動性能並謹慎地向前邁進，我們肯定會取得一些良好的進展，並且我們有新的創意來支持我們的下一代智能床。

We'll hear now from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

我們現在將聽到 Seth Basham 與 Wedbush Securities 的對話。

My first question is, if you could add some more color on the improving demand trends quarter-to-date. What was the decline in demand in each of January and February? And if you look at it on a 2-year stack basis, was there much improvement from January to February?

我的第一個問題是，您是否可以為本季度迄今不斷改善的需求趨勢添加更多顏色。 1 月和 2 月的需求分別下降了多少？如果您以 2 年的堆棧為基礎查看它，從 1 月到 2 月是否有很大改進？

Hey, Seth. As I highlighted, we're down high single digits quarter-to-date with a step up in February. If you look at last February for the President's event, we were up high single digits against a record year the year before. And so definitely a step up in our performance here this year and against tougher compares.

嘿，賽斯。正如我強調的那樣，我們在 2 月份有所上升，本季度迄今下降了高位個位數。如果你看看去年 2 月的總統活動，我們比前一年創紀錄的年份高出個位數。因此，今年我們在這裡的表現絕對是一個進步，並且與更艱難的比較相比。

But you're still anticipating material improvement for the remainder of the quarter despite the fact that compares (inaudible)

但是儘管比較（聽不清），您仍然預計本季度剩餘時間會有實質性改善

As we look at it, this -- the backdrop is still a very cautious consumer with inflation and drawn down savings and higher interest rate variability. So we're just entering a very -- in a very prudent manner. Consumer sentiment is the highest correlation -- has the highest correlation to our trends overall. So we'll see. We're going to continue to take steps forward and at the same time, be very prudent.

正如我們所看到的，這 - 背景仍然是一個非常謹慎的消費者對通貨膨脹和儲蓄減少以及更高的利率可變性。因此，我們只是以一種非常謹慎的方式進入了一種非常謹慎的方式。消費者情緒的相關性最高——與我們的整體趨勢相關性最高。所以我們拭目以待。我們將繼續向前邁進，同時要非常謹慎。

And then my second question is on SG&A. Just thinking about some of the moving pieces in 2023. I know you talked about advertising before. Should we think about advertising being a point of deleverage? And then on incentive compensation, that seems like a pretty big deleverage point. Are there any other big moving pieces to think about?

然後我的第二個問題是關於 SG&A。想想 2023 年的一些動人作品。我知道你之前談到過廣告。我們是否應該將廣告視為去槓桿化的一個點？然後在激勵補償方面，這似乎是一個相當大的去槓桿化點。有沒有其他大的動人的作品要考慮？

Hi, Seth. This is Dave. I think if you look at SG&A kind of broadly, we would expect modest deleverage from SG&A in total. And really, that's primarily due to the fact that we are guiding to sales being flat to down mid-single digits. So at the midpoint of our guidance, I think in total, you're looking at total operating expenses pretty flat year-over-year, but with some modest deleverage because of where we have the sales page.

嗨，賽斯。這是戴夫。我認為，如果您從廣義上看 SG&A，我們預計 SG&A 總體上會適度去槓桿化。實際上，這主要是因為我們指導銷售額持平至中個位數。因此，在我們指導的中點，我認為總的來說，你看到的總運營費用同比持平，但由於我們有銷售頁面，所以有一些適度的去槓桿化。

As you kind of move through the different elements of SG&A and you look at sales and marketing, we would expect some leverage in marketing overall and some deleverage in selling. Again, we have more fixed cost in the selling side, so they do tend to delever a little bit more. And we do expect to see improved marketing efficiency as we benefit from having our full product assortment, normalized delivery times.

當您瀏覽 SG&A 的不同元素並查看銷售和營銷時，我們希望整體營銷有一些影響力，而銷售有一些去槓桿化。同樣，我們在賣方方面有更多的固定成本，因此他們確實傾向於更多地去槓桿化。我們確實希望看到營銷效率的提高，因為我們受益於擁有完整的產品分類和標準化的交貨時間。

And then we're excited about the next-gen products that we're introducing here in the second quarter. So we think that all is going to lead to some improved marketing efficiency year-over-year. We are expecting some modest deleverage. And if you think about G&A and R&D combined, I think if you look at base spending, base spending would actually be down slightly. But then when you do bring in the funding of very important variable comp programs for the broad-based employee set, that rig does bring in some pressure relative to just the overall leverage in G&A and R&D.

然後我們對第二季度在這裡推出的下一代產品感到興奮。因此，我們認為所有這些都會導致營銷效率逐年提高。我們預計會有一些適度的去槓桿化。如果你考慮 G&A 和 R&D 的結合，我認為如果你看看基本支出，基本支出實際上會略有下降。但是，當你確實為基礎廣泛的員工群體引入非常重要的可變補償計劃的資金時，相對於 G&A 和 R&D 的整體槓桿率，該鑽機確實帶來了一些壓力。

And the pressure from higher financing interest costs, that flows through the selling component of SG&A?

以及來自 SG&A 銷售部分的更高融資利息成本的壓力？

Yes. So the financing expense itself that we utilized at the time of purchase, that runs through our sales and marketing line. The interest to cost, obviously, related to our revolver runs through the interest expense line, which is below NOP.

是的。因此，我們在購買時使用的融資費用本身貫穿於我們的銷售和營銷渠道。顯然，與我們的左輪手槍相關的成本利息貫穿低於 NOP 的利息支出線。

And you expect that line to deleverage in 2023, the financing costs associated with professional financing programs?

您預計該行將在 2023 年去槓桿化，即與專業融資計劃相關的融資成本？

Actually, we expect financing to be relatively flat. I think Shelly mentioned that we had about 100 basis points of deleverage in '22, but we aren't expecting that to be a big source of deleverage in '23 in part because of how we're going to manage the programs.

實際上，我們預計融資會相對平穩。我認為 Shelly 提到我們在 22 年有大約 100 個基點的去槓桿化，但我們預計這不會成為 23 年去槓桿化的主要來源，部分原因是我們將如何管理這些項目。

We'll hear next from Atul Maheswari with UBS.

接下來我們將聽到 Atul Maheswari 與 UBS 的對話。

Shelly, you mentioned a couple of times about normalized delivery times, even supply of chips and some of the excess costs have incurred last year that should potentially not recur this year. So would it be fair to say that Sleep Number supply chain has largely normalized at this point?

雪莉，你提到過幾次關於標準化的交貨時間，甚至芯片供應和一些去年發生的超額成本，今年可能不會再發生。那麼可以說 Sleep Number 供應鏈在這一點上已經基本正常化了嗎？

Has largely -- I'm sorry, you cut out.

很大程度上——對不起，你打斷了。

Back to normal.

恢復正常。

Yes. Yes. That is absolutely fair too.

是的。是的。這也絕對公平。

So in the backdrop, Shelly, you're still guiding to gross margin, which is 200 basis points below -- more than 200 basis points below your peak level. I guess what is holding back the gross margin even with normal supply chain? I mean what are some of the drags on the gross margin that still exists today that you should be able to potentially recover in later periods.

所以在背景下，雪莉，你仍在指導毛利率，比你的峰值水平低 200 個基點 - 200 多個基點。我猜是什麼阻礙了毛利率，即使是正常的供應鏈？我的意思是，今天仍然存在的對毛利率的一些拖累是什麼，你應該能夠在以後的時期內恢復。

Yes. I'll start and Dave can add some additional detail. But first of all, let me just start with, hey, we expect improvement this year of at least 150 basis points and both the easiness of commodity costs as well as having the even flow of chip inventory so that we don't have the stops and starts in our delivery time frame and also not using the air freight and the expensive broker markets that we've had to these past couple of years.

是的。我將開始，Dave 可以添加一些額外的細節。但首先，讓我先說，嘿，我們預計今年至少有 150 個基點的改善，商品成本的降低以及芯片庫存的平穩流動，這樣我們就不會停止並從我們的交貨時間框架開始，也不使用過去幾年我們不得不使用的空運和昂貴的經紀人市場。

And then we still have significant inflation cost on board that we took on this last year and pricing has offset some of that, and we are seeing some easing in the commodity costs, but we have -- we have more work to do to get back to the rates that we were at before, and that will take us this year and into next year.

然後我們仍然有去年承擔的顯著通脹成本，定價已經抵消了其中的一部分，我們看到商品成本有所下降，但我們有 - 我們還有更多工作要做才能恢復到我們以前的利率，這將帶我們今年和明年。

Yes. I would just add. Atul, I would just add to that. This is Dave. Sorry, that -- if you think about our business, I mean, we certainly have been investing and developing the business to support our long-term trajectory. So we just completed at the end of last year a whole new delivery network, which is supporting a much improved customer experience. And we're excited to, as we rebuild our unit volumes to really leverage that new network that we've established.

是的。我只想補充。阿圖爾，我只想補充一點。這是戴夫。抱歉，如果你考慮我們的業務，我的意思是，我們當然一直在投資和發展業務以支持我們的長期發展軌跡。所以我們在去年年底剛剛完成了一個全新的交付網絡，它支持大大改善的客戶體驗。我們很高興，因為我們重建我們的單位數量以真正利用我們已經建立的新網絡。

And so as I mentioned earlier, we think we're probably at somewhat trough-ish [ph] levels for units for the industry and probably for ourselves. And as we rebuild our units over time, that presents huge efficiency and leverage opportunities that we can scale across the business.

因此，正如我之前提到的，我們認為我們可能處於行業單位和我們自己的低谷 [ph] 水平。隨著我們隨著時間的推移重建我們的部門，這將帶來巨大的效率並利用我們可以在整個業務範圍內擴展的機會。

Just a couple of follow-ups here. Are there costs that are part of your COGS currently that you believe are structurally higher than where they were pre-COVID. Could you share some examples that you have? And is it realistic for us to expect again? I'm not asking for a time line, but is it realistic that Sleep Number can get back to 2019 gross margin level of around 62%?

這裡只是一些後續行動。您認為目前在您的 COGS 中的成本在結構上是否高於 COVID 之前的成本。你能分享一些你有的例子嗎？我們再次期待是否現實？我不是要時間表，但 Sleep Number 可以回到 2019 年 62% 左右的毛利率水平是否現實？

Yes. It's definitely realistic for us to get back to our prior margin levels. And as Dave mentioned, the unit leverage is an important aspect of that as well as the commodity costs and the labor costs are all elevated and those are pressures, right now. So we have headwinds that we're managing. We have key initiatives to drive our margin over the next couple of years, and we have a lot of confidence in our ability to do so.

是的。回到我們之前的保證金水平對我們來說絕對是現實的。正如戴夫所提到的，單位槓桿是其中的一個重要方面，商品成本和勞動力成本都在上升，這些都是壓力，現在。所以我們有我們正在管理的逆風。在接下來的幾年裡，我們有一些關鍵舉措來提高我們的利潤率，我們對我們這樣做的能力充滿信心。

Yes. And keep in mind Atul, as we think about the gross margin improvement for the year of over 150 million, we're doing that against the backdrop of sales expectations that are kind of flat to slightly down. So I think we are going to be working, have some unit deleverage working against us, but we do expect to continue to get leverage over time and also really claw back some of the commodity pressures that we've been facing.

是的。請記住 Atul，當我們考慮今年超過 1.5 億美元的毛利率提高時，我們是在銷售預期持平或略有下降的背景下這樣做的。所以我認為我們會努力，讓一些單位去槓桿化對我們不利，但我們確實希望隨著時間的推移繼續獲得槓桿作用，並真正收回我們一直面臨的一些商品壓力。

And with no other questions at this time. I would like to turn things back to the company for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想把事情轉回公司作結語。

Thank you for joining us today. We look forward to discussing our first quarter 2023 performance with you in April. Sleep well and dream big.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們期待在 4 月與您討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。睡個好覺，夢想大。

And that does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家加入我們，您現在可以斷開連接了。