Semtech Corp (SMTC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone, and welcome to all those joining today's call, including analysts, investors, and my fellow employees. I am Mark Lin, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and I'm joined today by Paul Pickle, President and Chief Executive Officer.

大家好，歡迎所有參加今天電話會議的人，包括分析師、投資者和我的同事。我是執行副總裁兼財務長馬克林 (Mark Lin)，今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長保羅皮克爾 (Paul Pickle)。

Today, after market close, we released our unaudited results for the fourth quarter and for fiscal year 2024, which are posted to our investor website at investors.semtech.com. Supplemental earnings materials, including net sales data by end market, reportable segment, and geography, as well as the share count table reflecting potential share issuances from our convertible notes at various stock prices are also posted to our investor website. I encourage participants on the call to access these materials.

今天收盤後，我們發布了第四季度和 2024 財年未經審計的業績，該業績已發佈在我們的投資者網站 Investors.semtech.com 上。補充收益資料，包括按終端市場、可報告部門和地理位置劃分的淨銷售數據，以及反映我們的可轉換票據以各種股票價格潛在發行股票的股數表，也發佈在我們的投資者網站上。我鼓勵電話會議的參與者存取這些資料。

Unless otherwise noted, all income statement related financial measures will be non-GAAP other than net sales. A discussion of why the company considers such non-GAAP financial measures useful along with reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in today's press release.

除非另有說明，除淨銷售額外，所有與損益表相關的財務指標均將採用非公認會計準則。今天的新聞稿中討論了公司為何認為此類非 GAAP 財務指標有用，以及此類非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的調節情況。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results anticipated in these statements. For a more detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please review the Safe Harbor statement included in today's press release and in the Risk Factors section of our most recent periodic report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder, comments made on today's call are current only as of today, and Semtech undertakes no obligation to update the information from this call should facts or circumstances change.

今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中包括可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中預期結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。有關這些風險和不確定性的更詳細討論，請查看今天的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新定期報告的風險因素部分中包含的安全港聲明。提醒一下，今天電話會議中的評論僅截至今天，Semtech 沒有義務在事實或情況發生變化時更新本次電話會議中的資訊。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul to discuss our business and end markets.

這樣，我會將電話轉給保羅，討論我們的業務和終端市場。

Thank you, Mark. Semtech reported fourth-quarter financial performance generally within my expectations, with net sales slightly above the midpoint of guidance. I'll provide a bit more color on end market performance and note end market consumption sequentially increased in each of our end markets.

謝謝你，馬克。Semtech 公佈的第四季財務業績大致符合我的預期，淨銷售額略高於指導中點。我將提供更多有關終端市場表現的信息，並指出我們每個終端市場的終端市場消費量依次增加。

For the fourth quarter, infrastructure net sales were $39.4 million, a sequential decline of 9% and largely driven by an expected pause in North American hyperscale data center deployment and our intent to normalize channel inventories. For the fourth quarter, infrastructure POS sequentially increased approximately 14% and channel inventories declined as anticipated. In data center, we had strong market interest continue for our FiberEdge TIAs and laser drivers for 400 gig and 800 gig optical modules.

第四季基礎設施淨銷售額為 3,940 萬美元，環比下降 9%，這主要是由於北美超大規模資料中心部署的預期暫停以及我們有意使通路庫存正常化。第四季度，基礎設施 POS 環比成長約 14%，通路庫存如預期下降。在資料中心，我們的 FiberEdge TIA 和用於 400 gig 和 800 gig 光學模組的雷射驅動器仍然具有濃厚的市場興趣。

Our market-leading 200 gig per lane product started production in Q1 with support from key hyperscalers, and we continue to support customers undertaking 1.60T optical module designs using our FiberEdge offerings. We are pleased to report design in activity for our newly announced DirectEdge platform of TIAs and laser drivers, enabling 800 gig linear pluggable optics or LPO modules.

我們市場領先的每通道 200 GB 產品在主要超大規模廠商的支援下於第一季開始生產，我們將繼續支援客戶使用我們的 FiberEdge 產品進行 1.60T 光學模組設計。我們很高興地報告我們新推出的 TIA 和雷射驅動器 DirectEdge 平台的設計活動，該平台支援 800 gig 線性可插拔光學元件或 LPO 模組。

We demonstrated these products at the Optical Fiber Communication Conference this week with favorable market feedback, and we expect to begin shipping these products at the end of FY25. In addition to recent advances in our data center optical portfolio, we are pleased with growing demand for our CopperEdge linear re-drivers for 800 gig active copper cables, supporting AI and machine learning data center buildouts.

我們在本週的光纖通訊大會上展示了這些產品，並獲得了良好的市場回饋，我們預計將在 25 財年末開始出貨這些產品。除了我們資料中心光學產品組合的最新進展之外，我們還對用於 800 GB 主動銅纜的 CopperEdge 線性轉接驅動器不斷增長的需求感到高興，該驅動器支援人工智慧和機器學習資料中心的擴建。

Compared to DSP-based active electrical cables, our linear CopperEdge power requirements are over 80% lower, operates with significantly lower latency and offers a cost advantage. We are currently sampling our 200 gig per lane CopperEdge chips and are very excited to be partnering on designs into 1.6T ACC applications. We expect 1.6T design in activity for both ACCs and optical modules to support leading-edge AI and ML data center deployments. Based on current design schedules and engagements with data centers as well as with cable and module manufacturers, we expect shipments to begin to ramp for these 1.6T designs at the end of FY25.

與基於 DSP 的主動電纜相比，我們的線性 CopperEdge 功耗要求降低了 80% 以上，運行延遲顯著降低，並具有成本優勢。我們目前正在對每通道 200 GB CopperEdge 晶片進行採樣，並且非常高興能夠在 1.6T ACC 應用設計方面進行合作。我們預計 ACC 和光學模組的 1.6T 設計將支援領先的 AI 和 ML 資料中心部署。根據目前的設計時間表以及與資料中心以及電纜和模組製造商的合作，我們預計這些 1.6T 設計的出貨量將在 2025 財年末開始增加。

Moving to passive optical networks, we saw increased PON demand in the quarter, accelerating off of fairly low levels following the release of bidding tenders in the China market. Fourth-quarter POS increased sequentially, and based on the first weeks of first quarter activity, average weekly POS is nearing FY23 levels. Based on our analysis of recent tenders, PON demand includes both XGPON and XGSPON, supporting optical line terminal and optical network unit buildouts. Continued transition to 10 gig and higher speeds benefits Semetech based on our first-to-market position, our technical leadership, and our superior product performance.

轉向無源光網絡，我們看到本季度 PON 需求有所增加，在中國市場招標發布後，該需求從相當低的水平加速增長。第四季 POS 環比成長，根據第一季前幾週的活動，平均每週 POS 接近 2023 財年的水平。根據我們對近期招標的分析，PON需求包括XGPON和XGSPON，支援光線路終端和光網路單元的建置。持續向 10 gig 和更高速度的過渡使 Semetech 受益匪淺，因為我們率先進入市場的地位、我們的技術領先地位以及我們卓越的產品性能。

We expect the global transition to 10 gig and higher speed PON will partially offset the slowdown in real estate development in China. We are also pleased with our engagements to support XGSPON deployments in North America, and though we are still in early innings, we expect demand trends requiring higher and higher speed access to the cloud will result in long-term market opportunities for Semtech in North America and EMEA.

我們預計全球向 10 GB 和更高速度 PON 的過渡將部分抵消中國房地產開發放緩的影響。我們也對支援北美 XGSPON 部署的承諾感到高興，儘管我們仍處於早期階段，但我們預計需要越來越快的速度存取雲端的需求趨勢將為 Semtech 在北美帶來長期市場機會和歐洲、中東和非洲地區。

Regarding other products in the infrastructure end market, wireless demand remains muted. Though we are leveraging our expertise in data center market with demos at OFC aimed at 5G advanced, including Tri-Edge 50 gig combo drivers and CopperEdge 50 gig ACCs. We are currently participating qualifications of 50 gig fronthaul systems and expect sales in the latter half of FY25 for these products. Further, we believe our recently announced products in the FiberEdge family for 100 gig ZR will provide groundbreaking improvements in network power efficiency in the performance.

至於基礎設施終端市場的其他產品，無線需求仍然低迷。儘管我們正在利用我們在資料中心市場的專業知識，在 OFC 上針對 5G 先進技術進行演示，包括 Tri-Edge 50 gig 組合驅動器和 CopperEdge 50 gig ACC。我們目前正在參與 50G 前傳系統的資格認證，預計這些產品將在 2025 財年下半年銷售。此外，我們相信我們最近推出的適用於 100 gig ZR 的 FiberEdge 系列產品將為網路能源效率和效能帶來突破性的改進。

For the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, we expect net sales from the infrastructure end market to increase sequentially, with PON applications leading to growth. For the fourth quarter, high end consumer net sales were $32.1 million, a sequential decrease of 15%, coming off of a third-quarter seasonal high for TVS products. Encouragingly, high end consumer POS increased nominally in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, with proximity sensing offsetting an expected decrease in consumer TVS from smartphone seasonality.

對於2025財年第一季度，我們預計基礎設施終端市場的淨銷售額將環比成長，其中PON應用將帶動成長。第四季度，高端消費者淨銷售額為 3,210 萬美元，季減 15%，低於 TVS 產品第三季的季節性高點。令人鼓舞的是，與第三季度相比，第四季度高端消費者 POS 名義上有所增長，接近感應抵消了智慧型手機季節性帶來的消費 TVS 預期下降。

On a year-over-year basis, high end consumer POS increased approximately 28%. Revenue and POS trends indicate normalizing channel inventory levels though we would like to see further reductions primarily through expectation for stronger end market demand. We believe market share for our consumer TVS products, particularly in USB Type-C applications, has increased as validated by fourth quarter POS levels that grew over 30% year over year and exceeded both the first and second quarters of FY24.

高階消費 POS 年成長約 28%。收入和 POS 趨勢表明通路庫存水準正在正常化，但我們希望看到主要是透過對終端市場需求強勁的預期而進一步減少庫存。我們相信，我們的消費TVS 產品（尤其是USB Type-C 應用）的市場份額已經增加，這一點已得到第四季度POS 水平的驗證，同比增長超過30%，超過了2024 財年第一季和第二季。

Proximity sensing products benefited from specific absorption rate standards that went into effect in China at the beginning of the year. And what was expected to be a seasonally down quarter for handset production, fourth quarter proximity sensing sales and POS both increased sequentially and year over year, indicating market adoption of Semtech's industry-leading PerSe sensing solution.

接近感測產品受惠於年初在中國生效的比吸收率標準。預計手機產量將出現季節性下降，第四季度接近感測銷售額和 POS 均環比和同比增長，表明市場採用了 Semtech 業界領先的 PerSe 感測解決方案。

Fourth-quarter proximity sensing bookings were at their highest point in the fiscal year. In Chinese handset manufacturers, we believe we have a majority of the SAM for sensing products and at substantially higher percentage in their high-end smartphone models. For the first quarter, we expect net sales from the high-end consumer market to be flat to slightly up as we continue to evaluate channel inventory health.

第四季接近感應預訂量達到本財年的最高點。在中國手機製造商中，我們相信我們擁有大部分用於感測產品的 SAM，並且在其高階智慧型手機型號中的比例要高得多。對於第一季度，隨著我們繼續評估通路庫存健康狀況，我們預計高端消費市場的淨銷售額將持平或略有上升。

For the fourth quarter, industrial net sales were $121.5 million, up 1% sequentially and within expectations. IoT systems reported fourth quarter net sales of $65.5 million, up 11% sequentially. Encouragingly, fourth quarter net sales for modules were up over 20% sequentially, benefiting from customer requested shipments on certain end-of-life models and higher LPWA sales into smart metering and asset tracking applications.

第四季工業淨銷售額為 1.215 億美元，季增 1%，符合預期。IoT 系統報告第四季淨銷售額為 6,550 萬美元，比上一季成長 11%。令人鼓舞的是，第四季度模組淨銷售額環比增長超過 20%，這得益於客戶要求的某些報廢型號的出貨量以及智能計量和資產跟踪應用中 LPWA 銷售額的增加。

US government focus on suppliers into critical infrastructures also garnering attention in the European market where we have increased opportunities in markets, such as smart metering and payment processing. We believe Semtech’s advantages and ultra-low power consumption, scalability through our selection of worldwide bands and high transmit power, supplements our position as a trusted North American supplier.

美國政府專注於關鍵基礎設施的供應商，這也引起了歐洲市場的關注，我們在歐洲市場的機會增加，例如智慧計量和支付處理。我們相信 Semtech 的優勢、超低功耗、透過我們選擇的全球頻段和高發射功率實現的可擴展性，補充了我們作為值得信賴的北美供應商的地位。

Module and customer inventories in many applications remained elevated, though, and visibility remains limited. As such, we believe time to meaningful recovery in this market will be extended. We continued to invest in the portfolio, though expanding our 5G and CAT 1 bis offerings in the middle of FY25.

不過，許多應用中的模組和客戶庫存仍然很高，可見性仍然有限。因此，我們相信該市場實現有意義復甦的時間將會延長。我們繼續投資於該產品組合，並在 2025 財年中期擴大了 5G 和 CAT 1 bis 產品。

For the fourth quarter, router net sales were down about 13% sequentially as we work to address elevated channel inventories. Consistent with last quarter, lack of a US federal budget freezes spending on all projects, federal and local not deemed essential and mission critical. As such, a typical uptick in fourth-quarter agency spending was muted.

第四季度，由於我們努力解決通路庫存增加的問題，路由器淨銷售額較上季下降了約 13%。與上個季度一致，美國聯邦預算的缺乏凍結了所有項目的支出，聯邦和地方的項目被認為不是必需的和關鍵任務的。因此，第四季機構支出的典型成長幅度不大。

In the fourth quarter, consumption was at the high point for the fiscal year, and at the end of the quarter, channel inventory at the low point of the fiscal year. That said, we believe our router business is still moving toward a recovery phase in the second half of fiscal '25 as we continue to monitor channel inventory health.

第四季消費處於本財年高點，季末通路庫存處於本財年低點。也就是說，我們相信，隨著我們繼續監控通路庫存狀況，我們的路由器業務在 25 財年下半年仍將走向復甦階段。

We are encouraged with the positive feedback on our recent launch of the XR60, the world's smallest rugged 5G router and builds on our core markets of industrial and public safety. Pipeline for the XR60 is strong, and we expect this product to contribute to revenue growth in fiscal '25 and beyond.

我們最近推出的 XR60 獲得了正面回饋，我們深受鼓舞，XR60 是世界上最小的堅固型 5G 路由器，建立在我們的工業和公共安全核心市場之上。XR60 的產品線很強大，我們預計該產品將為 25 財年及以後的營收成長做出貢獻。

We are also encouraged from feedback at DISTRIBUTECH in the utility space where our product solutions support private networking spectrum and have resulted in sales and pipeline development. IoT connected services reported fourth quarter net sales of $24.2 million, flat sequentially and also within expectations for this relatively stable stream of recurring revenue. We continue to invest in our service platform, delivering reliable, high-quality connectivity, and cloud-based services, including smart connectivity, device control, data insights, and fully managed solutions.

我們也受到公用事業領域 DISTRIBUTECH 的回饋的鼓舞，我們的產品解決方案支援專用網路頻譜，並帶來了銷售和管道開發。物聯網連接服務報告第四季淨銷售額為 2,420 萬美元，與上一季持平，也符合對這一相對穩定的經常性收入流的預期。我們繼續投資我們的服務平台，提供可靠、高品質的連接和基於雲端的服務，包括智慧連接、設備控制、數據洞察和完全託管的解決方案。

Net sales of our RF industrial products, including LoRa enabled solutions, declined about 14% sequentially. But POS increased approximately 13%, consistent with our goal of healthier channel inventories. Bookings in the fourth quarter sequentially increased over 30% and have increased for the last six sequential quarters.

我們的射頻工業產品（包括支援 LoRa 的解決方案）的淨銷售額環比下降了約 14%。但 POS 成長了約 13%，這與我們更健康的通路庫存目標一致。第四季度的預訂量連續增長了 30% 以上，並且在過去的六個連續季度中都有所增長。

Lastly, hearing aid applications, which integrate LoRa into custom SOCs, are expected to result in meaningful revenue in FY25. ITA TVS faced a headwind from elevated channel inventory, but we are pleased with the progress of SurgeSwitch with customer count across a broad spectrum of industrial, medical, and automotive companies more than doubling in the last year. Our strategy leverages customer engagement and adoption of our best-in-class consumer products to capture meaningful SAM.

最後，將 LoRa 整合到客製化 SOC 中的助聽器應用預計將在 2025 財年帶來可觀的收入。ITA TVS 面臨通路庫存增加的阻力，但我們對 SurgeSwitch 的進展感到高興，去年工業、醫療和汽車公司的客戶數量增加了一倍多。我們的策略利用客戶參與和採用我們一流的消費產品來獲取有意義的 SAM。

We are pleased with healthy fourth-quarter sequential growth in POS for ITA TVS. Similarly, we are engaged in the industrial and automotive space for our sensing products and are encouraged by design wins in the fourth quarter. Our consumer products are gradually providing incremental momentum to the ITA flywheel. For the first quarter, we expect industrial net sales to be down with continued inventory digestion in modules and routers and the aforementioned public sector headwind, but stable net sales from our managed connectivity offerings and growing LoRa net sales.

我們對 ITA TVS 的 POS 第四季健康連續成長感到高興。同樣，我們的感測產品也涉足工業和汽車領域，並因第四季度的設計勝利而受到鼓舞。我們的消費產品正逐漸為 ITA 飛輪提供增量動力。對於第一季，我們預計，由於模組和路由器的庫存持續消化以及上述公共部門的不利因素，工業淨銷售額將下降，但我們的託管連接產品和LoRa 淨銷售額的成長將帶來穩定的淨銷售額。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Mark.

現在我將把電話轉回給馬克。

Thank you, Paul. First, a few housekeeping items on our segment reporting. The primary change is our newly created analog mixed signal and wireless segment, which combines the former APS segment with LoRa from the IoT systems segment and SDVoE from the signal integrity segment.

謝謝你，保羅。首先，我們分部報告中的一些內務處理項目。主要變化是我們新創建的類比混合訊號和無線部分，它將先前的 APS 部分與物聯網系統部分的 LoRa 和訊號完整性部分的 SDVoE 結合起來。

From a functional perspective, this change aligns similar development teams under one general manager and streamlines allocation of R&D resources. The ISP segment now consists of our routers and modules business. Supplemental earnings materials reflect this change for all periods presented.

從職能角度來看，這項變更將類似的開發團隊統一在一個總經理的領導下，並簡化了研發資源的分配。ISP 部門現在由我們的路由器和模組業務組成。補充收益資料反映了所列所有期間的這項變更。

Turning to our fourth-quarter results, we recorded net sales of $192.9 million, slightly above the midpoint of our guidance. Paul discussed end market net sales performance with infrastructure down 9% sequentially, high end consumer down 15% sequentially, and industrial up 1% sequentially. These results were largely in line with our expectations and reflective of our objectives to support a healthier channel.

談到我們第四季的業績，我們的淨銷售額為 1.929 億美元，略高於我們指導的中點。Paul 討論了終端市場淨銷售表現，基礎設施環比下降 9%，高端消費者環比下降 15%，工業環比增長 1%。這些結果在很大程度上符合我們的預期，並反映了我們支持更健康的管道的目標。

Gross margin was 48.9% at the high end of our guidance for the quarter, reflecting favorable overhead spending, offset by a higher mix of lower margin module sales. Operating expenses were $76.5 million, down 7% sequentially, but above guidance in total.

毛利率為 48.9%，處於我們本季指引的高端，反映出有利的管理費用支出，但被利潤率較低的模組銷售的較高組合所抵消。營運費用為 7,650 萬美元，比上一季下降 7%，但總額高於指導值。

R&D expense decreased 13% sequentially from $43.9 million in the third quarter to $38.2 million in the fourth quarter. SG&A declined slightly from $38.6 million in the third quarter compared to $38.3 million in the fourth quarter. SG&A came in above expectations with higher costs to support key customer engagements and lower than expected vacation usage to support integration efforts, especially around our migration to a single ERP, which went live at the beginning of the first quarter. There were also some cost savings modeled into operating expenses that we realized in cost of goods sold.

研發費用較上季下降 13%，從第三季的 4,390 萬美元降至第四季的 3,820 萬美元。SG&A 較第三季的 3,860 萬美元略有下降，而第四季為 3,830 萬美元。SG&A 超出預期，支援關鍵客戶參與的成本較高，支援整合工作的假期使用率低於預期，特別是在我們遷移到第一季初上線的單一 ERP 方面。我們在銷售商品成本中實現了營運費用的一些成本節省。

Net interest expense was $19.9 million. Other expense, which consisted primarily of foreign exchange losses, was $2 million. We recorded net loss per share of $0.06 based on a diluted share count of 64.4 million shares. For fiscal year 2024, we recorded net sales of $868.8 million, gross margin of 49.5% and diluted earnings per share of $0.14.

淨利息支出為 1,990 萬美元。其他費用為 200 萬美元，主要包括外匯損失。根據稀釋後的 6,440 萬股股數，我們錄得每股淨虧損 0.06 美元。2024 財年，我們的淨銷售額為 8.688 億美元，毛利率為 49.5%，稀釋每股收益為 0.14 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with a cash balance of $128.6 million. Working capital moved in a favorable direction with accounts receivables decreasing $22.3 million sequentially and inventories decreasing $15.6 million sequentially. Principal outstanding on our debt was $1.4 billion with a weighted average interest rate of 5.86%. At the end of our fourth quarter, our consolidated net leverage ratio calculated in accordance with the credit facility is 9.11.

轉向資產負債表，第四季末我們的現金餘額為 1.286 億美元。營運資金朝著有利的方向發展，應收帳款較上月減少 2,230 萬美元，庫存較上月減少 1,560 萬美元。我們的債務本金餘額為 14 億美元，加權平均利率為 5.86%。截至第四季末，根據信用額度計算的綜合淨槓桿比率為9.11。

Operating cash flow for the fourth quarter turned positive at $13.9 million and free cash flow was $12.2 million. Consistent with our capital allocation priority to reduce leverage, we made a $5 million optional prepayment on our credit facility in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $24 million compared to $28.1 million in the third quarter.

第四季營運現金流轉正為 1,390 萬美元，自由現金流為 1,220 萬美元。根據我們降低槓桿的資本配置優先順序，我們在第四季度對信貸安排支付了 500 萬美元的可選預付款。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2,400 萬美元，而第三季為 2,810 萬美元。

Before I discuss our first quarter guidance, I'd like to touch upon the non-cash goodwill and intangibles impairment charge we recorded in the fourth quarter. In conjunction with our annual goodwill assessment, which occurs on the first day of the fourth quarter of each fiscal year, we recorded a non-cash impairment charge to goodwill and intangible assets of $605 million in the ISP and ICS segments. Our assessment of near-term headwinds and moderated outlook for ISP and ICS contributed to the charge. We will also report material weaknesses in our Form 10-K, which primarily relate to Sierra Wireless and for which we believe a single ERP will substantially contribute to remediation.

在討論我們的第一季指導之前，我想談談我們在第四季度記錄的非現金商譽和無形資產減損費用。結合我們在每個財政年度第四季第一天進行的年度商譽評估，我們在 ISP 和 ICS 部門記錄了 6.05 億美元的商譽和無形資產非現金減損費用。我們對 ISP 和 ICS 近期不利因素的評估以及溫和的前景促成了這項指控。我們也將在 10-K 表格中報告重大缺陷，這些缺陷主要與 Sierra Wireless 相關，我們相信單一 ERP 將大大有助於修復這些缺陷。

Now turning to first-quarter guidance. We currently expect net sales of $200 million plus or minus $5 million. Our infrastructure market is expected to be up sequentially, reflecting PON and data center gains. High end consumer is expected to be flat to slightly up sequentially as higher channel inventory levels on specific SKUs offset generally our demand. Industrial end market is expected to be down, reflecting softness in the hardware business, partially offset by growing LoRashipments.

現在轉向第一季指引。我們目前預計淨銷售額為 2 億美元上下 500 萬美元。我們的基礎設施市場預計將持續成長，反映出 PON 和資料中心的成長。由於特定 SKU 的較高通路庫存水準普遍抵消了我們的需求，高端消費者預計將持平或略有上升。工業終端市場預計將下降，反映出硬體業務的疲軟，但部分被 LoRa 出貨量的成長所抵消。

In the fourth quarter, end customer demand consisting of direct shipments plus POS improved sequentially across all of our end markets. That said, our net sales guidance for the first quarter continues to reflect our goal of a healthier channel.

第四季度，我們所有終端市場的終端客戶需求（包括直接出貨和 POS）連續改善。也就是說，我們第一季的淨銷售額指導繼續反映了我們更健康的管道的目標。

Based on expected product mix revenue levels, gross margin is expected to be 49.5% plus or minus 100 basis points. Operating expenses are expected to be $78.5 million, plus or minus $1.5 million. SG&A expenses are expected to be $36.5 million at the midpoint. Research and development expenses are expected to be $42 million at the midpoint, reflecting incremental investments supporting key products. We expect net interest expense to be $20.5 million and a non-GAAP tax rate of 12%. These amounts are expected to result in a net income per share at breakeven plus or minus $0.04.

根據預期的產品組合收入水平，毛利率預計為 49.5%，上下浮動 100 個基點。營運費用預計為 7,850 萬美元，上下浮動 150 萬美元。銷售及管理費用中間費用預計為 3,650 萬美元。研發費用中位數預計為 4,200 萬美元，反映了支持關鍵產品的增量投資。我們預計淨利息支出為 2,050 萬美元，非 GAAP 稅率為 12%。這些金額預計將帶來損益平衡點的每股淨利潤正為 0.04 美元。

I'd now like to turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A.

我現在想將電話轉回給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Tristan Gerra, Baird.

（操作員說明）Tristan Gerra，Baird。

Hi, good afternoon. The first question is whether you could expand a little bit on the China tenders earlier this year, the timing in terms of revenue contribution and what potentially does that mean in revenue and specifically within the signal integrity business?

嗨，下午好。第一個問題是，您是否可以稍微擴展一下今年早些時候的中國招標、收入貢獻的時間安排以及這對收入（特別是在信號完整性業務中）可能意味著什麼？

Yes. Thank you, Tristan. I would say that right now, the China tenders, they came in the January timeframe. Just to rewind, if we look back, we were expecting them in the October-November timeframe, which they typically do come in. It was announced there was going to be a delay.

是的。謝謝你，特里斯坦。我想說的是，現在中國的招標是在一月的時間範圍內進行的。回顧一下，如果我們回顧過去，我們預計它們會在 10 月至 11 月的時間範圍內出現，而它們通常確實會出現。已宣布將延遲。

They went public in January and the numbers are pretty good in them. I think if you analyze the two-year financial data, it looks like roughly flattish spend to the previous timeframe, but we are coming off of considerable low. And within that tender, a couple of positives for us. So it's not necessarily more infrastructure, it's upgraded infrastructure as a lot of the tender was skewed towards 10 gig PON. And that's good for us, higher ASPs, better margin, less competition.

他們一月上市，業績相當不錯。我認為，如果你分析兩年的財務數據，看起來與之前的時間框架大致持平，但我們正處於相當低的水平。在那次招標中，對我們來說有一些積極的一面。因此，這不一定是更多的基礎設施，而是升級的基礎設施，因為許多招標都偏向 10 gig PON。這對我們有好處，平均售價更高，利潤更高，競爭更少。

We've got about a 70% to 80% market share in that business, and so we're in a pretty good position. In terms of timing of contribution, it's relatively immediate for us. It comes out of the gate, not giving a lot of visibility when those orders started coming in. But we should see some appreciable contribution and I believe in the prepared remarks, we talked about POS levels being roughly back to previous levels, a pretty healthy demand if we look back in previous years. So not quite at the peak, but very strong demand right out the gate, so we expect immediate contribution.

我們在該業務中擁有大約 70% 到 80% 的市場份額，因此我們處於非常有利的地位。就貢獻時間而言，對我們來說相對較直接。當這些訂單開始進來時，它就出來了，並沒有提供太多的可見性。但我們應該看到一些可觀的貢獻，我相信在準備好的發言中，我們談到 POS 水平大致回到以前的水平，如果我們回顧前幾年，這是一個相當健康的需求。因此，雖然還沒有達到高峰，但需求很快就非常強勁，因此我們預計會立即做出貢獻。

Great. Thanks for the feedback. And then as a follow up, if you could also expand on the opportunities in AI interconnect, trying to quantify the opportunity as the engagement you have in AI for notably CopperEdge technology? And is that multiple AI platform? Any color here would be appreciated.

偉大的。感謝您的回饋。作為後續行動，您是否還可以擴展 AI 互連領域的機會，嘗試將機會量化為您在 AI 領域（特別是 CopperEdge 技術）的參與度？那是多個人工智慧平台嗎？這裡任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Sure. I'd say, right now, the market is really frothy. I have said this before that the fundamentals in data center are really strong, expect them to be strong at least for the next three to five. The horizon looks really, really good.

當然。我想說，現在的市場真的很泡沫。我之前說過，資料中心的基本面非常強勁，預計至少在未來三到五年內會保持強勁。地平線看起來真的非常好。

The pace at which adoption is happening, it seems to be slightly accelerated. If we look at previous node changes, we're on an accelerated cycle here. And we're looking at really technological changes that are happening in order trying to save power. So our engagement in ACC, for us, this stands to be a considerable contributor if we look at next fiscal year. So this is really a calendar year '25 phenomenon, but starts to ramp in the back half of '24.

採用的速度似乎略有加快。如果我們查看先前的節點更改，就會發現我們正處於加速週期。我們正在研究正在發生的真正的技術變革，以試圖節省電力。因此，如果我們考慮下一個財年，我們對 ACC 的參與對我們來說將是一個相當大的貢獻。因此，這實際上是 25 年的現象，但在 24 年下半年開始加劇。

But to put a number on it, I'll say that we'll see a significant increase in demand this next year, and we're probably looking at 20%-plus growth the year thereafter. So it's really hard to put an exact quantity on it because the numbers that people are talking about just appear really high and difficult to make. And so we want to see those sockets get solidified and start to see these forecasts rollout. But the ramp is pretty stiff, so the question is just how stiff.

但用一個數字來說，我會說明年我們的需求將顯著增加，我們可能會在接下來的一年看到 20% 以上的成長。所以很難給出一個確切的數字，因為人們談論的數字看起來非常高而且很難計算。因此，我們希望看到這些套接字得到鞏固，並開始看到這些預測的推出。但坡道相當僵硬，所以問題是僵硬程度如何。

Quinn Bolton, Needham & Company.

奎因·博爾頓，李約瑟公司。

Hey, Paul, I wanted to follow up on Tristan's questions just about the opportunity. We're starting to see 200 gig per lane being introduced within the data center. You've got the 100, already 200 gig. I'm sure we'll see that from other optical DSPs and processors here over the next year. And so I guess can you quantify --?

嘿，保羅，我想跟進特里斯坦關於機會的問題。我們開始看到資料中心內每通道引入 200 GB。你已經有了 100、200 場演出。我相信明年我們會從其他光學 DSP 和處理器中看到這一點。所以我想你能量化一下嗎——？

I mean, I think NVIDIA in its presentation back at GTC was talking about being able to drive signals potentially as far as 2 meters. That seems a lot longer than I've heard this week at OFC. And so I guess as you get to 200 gig per lane, what do you think the reach is of 200 gig per lane? How big is that ACC opportunity? Do you have multiple programs that you're engaged in for those ACCs or the linear equalizers?

我的意思是，我認為 NVIDIA 在 GTC 的演講中談到了能夠將訊號驅動到最遠 2 公尺的距離。這似乎比我本週在 OFC 聽到的要長得多。因此，我想當您達到每通道 200 G 時，您認為每個通道 200 G 的覆蓋範圍是多少？ACC 的機會有多大？您是否有針對這些 ACC 或線性均衡器參與的多個程序？

Yeah. So 200 gig ACC, definitely, at 2 meters, we're demoing those products today. And we demoed a few solutions at OFC that as you're probably well aware. I think we could probably achieve up to 5 meters even possibly. We need to see the specs settle out and determine exactly where that's going to fall in play. But when you get into active copper, it's a nice intermediary or intermediate solution between copper interconnects and active electrical cables that would require retiming.

是的。所以 200 gig ACC，當然，在 2 公尺處，我們今天正在示範這些產品。我們在 OFC 演示了一些解決方案，您可能很清楚。我認為我們甚至有可能達到 5 米。我們需要確定規格並準確地確定其發揮作用。但是，當您使用有源銅時，它是銅互連和需要重新定時的有源電纜之間的一個很好的中間或中間解決方案。

And right now, you're talking about significantly lower power requirements as well, about 20% of what an ACC application would be. So right now, as we look at power budget, that's driving a lot. 800 gig certainly a possibility; we're looking at 1.6T as well for ACC applications. There's multiple areas where those could go, multiple programs where those could go, and it's considerable upside opportunity as you look beyond this calendar year.

現在，您正在談論顯著降低的功耗要求，約為 ACC 應用的 20%。所以現在，當我們考慮功率預算時，它的推動力很大。 800 場演出當然是可能的；我們也在考慮 1.6T 的 ACC 應用。這些可以涉及多個領域，多個項目可以涉及，當你展望本日曆年之後，這是相當大的上升機會。

Yeah. I'm sorry. I was meaning that the passive copper, it sounds like you can't drive the signal that far overpassed, so you got to go at it. I assume you guys agree with that statement?

是的。對不起。我的意思是無源銅，聽起來你無法驅動遠遠超過的訊號，所以你必須繼續努力。我想你們都同意這個說法吧？

Yes. So right now, they're running out of gas on just copper interconnects. And they can do that within the GPU cluster in a lot of cases. But if you're looking at 1 meter to 5 meters, you're going to need an active copper solution.

是的。所以現在，他們只用銅互連來耗盡氣體。在很多情況下，他們可以在 GPU 叢集內做到這一點。但如果您考慮的是 1 米到 5 米，則需要有源銅解決方案。

Cody Acree, The Benchmark Company.

科迪·阿克里，基準公司。

Yeah, thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the progress. I guess, Paul, just continuing on with that prior question, staying with what we're seeing from NVIDIA with their SpectrumX solution and even guys like Broadcom that are definitely leaning into ether nets, keeping things in copper as long as possible. How do you see the industry shifting or transitioning between copper and optical? And do you happen to have a benefit one way or the other?

是的，感謝您提出問題並祝賀我的進展。Paul，我想，只是繼續前面的問題，繼續我們從 NVIDIA 的 SpectrumX 解決方案中看到的情況，甚至像 Broadcom 這樣的公司肯定會傾向於以太網，盡可能長時間地使用銅纜。您如何看待銅纜和光纖之間的產業轉變或過渡？您是否碰巧以某種方式獲得了好處？

Yeah, it's going to be an optimization. Depending on who you talk to, you can see there's roughly half of the power budget in a data center that's dedicated to interconnects, transport of data. There's some people that would say 70% of the cost in the data center would come from optics alone. It's always going to be -- copper has got some significant advantages if you don't have to use fiber optics. Power is certainly one of those.

是的，這將是一個優化。根據您與誰交談，您可以看到資料中心大約有一半的電力預算專用於互連和資料傳輸。有人會說資料中心 70% 的成本僅來自光學元件。如果您不必使用光纖，那麼銅總是具有一些顯著的優勢。權力當然是其中之一。

If you look at thermal variances in terms of performance over a wider temperature range or under some intense thermal conditions, copper is going to have an advantage as well. And so it just comes down to what are the requirements. You're starting to see GPU clusters, those racks needing interconnectivity. Those are not -- they don't have to be plugged into a fiber plant. And so they're looking at these shorter reach interconnect solutions between GPU clusters, but the fiber plant is not going away either anytime soon. So it's really just about optimizing. Optimizing cost, although cost is a secondary concern in AI today, but power certainly is one for the performance.

如果您考慮在更寬的溫度範圍內或在某些強烈的熱條件下的性能熱差異，銅也將具有優勢。因此，這取決於要求是什麼。您開始看到 GPU 集群，這些機架需要​​互連。這些不是——它們不必插入光纖設備。因此，他們正在研究 GPU 叢集之間的短距離互連解決方案，但光纖設備也不會很快消失。所以這實際上只是優化。優化成本，儘管成本是當今人工智慧的次要考慮因素，但功耗無疑是效能的考慮因素之一。

And from your competitive positioning, do you benefit one way or the other?

從您的競爭定位中，您是否會以某種方式受益？

Not really. I think when you -- it comes down to the portfolio once you get to a 200 gig node and you can work out a really linear drive pattern then you've got some optimization around or some IP around that circuitry, it really comes down to just knowing what the parameters are of the application, whether it be optics or whether it be copper. But copper is really interesting right now, and it sits right in our wheelhouse in terms of technical competency. But we can take that competency and apply it to optics as well.

並不真地。我認為，一旦你達到 200 gig 節點，你就可以製定出真正的線性驅動模式，然後你就可以對該電路進行一些優化或一些 IP，這實際上可以歸結為只需知道應用的參數是什麼，無論是光學還是銅。但銅現在確實很有趣，就技術能力而言，它正好位於我們的駕駛室中。但我們也可以將這種能力應用在光學領域。

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托雷‧思文凱 (Tore Svanberg)、史蒂菲爾 (Stifel)。

Yes, thank you. Paul, I had a question on the industrial market, I guess, in this case, the IoT hardware business. So there was a lot of moving parts there. And I was just hoping you could clarify a little bit of exactly what's going on there because certainly that business held up pretty well this quarter. It sounds like it's going to step down next quarter, and then you also talked about there still being some inventory. So if you could just clarify a little bit some of the moving parts there that would be really helpful.

是的，謝謝。保羅，我有一個關於工業市場的問題，我想，在這種情況下，是物聯網硬體業務。所以那裡有很多活動部件。我只是希望你能澄清一下到底發生了什麼，因為這個季度的業務確實表現得很好。聽起來下個季度就要退出了，然後你也談到還有一些庫存。因此，如果您能稍微澄清一下其中的一些活動部件，那將會非常有幫助。

Yes. So hardware, definitely, we're looking at Q1 as a bottom for us in the hardware business. I would like to think that Q1 is going to be a bottom. We don't have a ton of visibility there, so it's a little bit hard to say. With the federal budget and some government buying, we could get some POS increases here that might make Q1 the bottom and start to see a rebound in Q2. But I'm looking at Q1 and Q2 somewhat flattish on hardware.

是的。因此，硬體方面，我們肯定將第一季視為硬體業務的底部。我認為第一季將會觸底。我們在那裡沒有太多的能見度，所以有點很難說。隨著聯邦預算和一些政府購買，我們可能會在這裡獲得一些 POS 成長，這可能會使第一季觸底，並開始在第二季度看到反彈。但我認為第一季和第二季在硬體上有些平淡。

Industrial applications and modules is picking up a little bit ahead of broadband. Broadband is mostly a direct business, so we've got less visibility on what the customer inventory is. But they've had some muted POS due to government buying as well. And so it really comes down to what is that end market demand going to be for the router business. We should get a subsequent pickup in modules shortly after that as that channel or that customer inventory depletes. So it's a little hard to say at this point, but I would -- I am thinking that Q1 is going to be the bottom and Q2 will be somewhat flattish to Q1.

工業應用和模組的發展比寬頻稍快一些。寬頻主要是一項直接業務，因此我們對客戶庫存的了解較少。但由於政府購買，他們的 POS 也出現了一些低迷。因此，這實際上取決於路由器業務的終端市場需求是什麼。隨著該渠道或客戶庫存耗盡，我們應該很快就會收到模組。所以現在很難說，但我認為第一季將是底部，而第二季將與第一季持平。

That's very helpful. And my follow-up is for Mark. Mark, the new segments, you went through that pretty quickly. I was just hoping you could talk a little bit more about that. Because you said you want those business to be other one general manager. But yeah, just explain to us again the specifics of the new segments.

這非常有幫助。我的後續行動是針對馬克的。馬克，新的部分，你很快就完成了。我只是希望你能多談談這一點。因為你說你想讓那些業務當另外一位總經理。但是，是的，請再次向我們解釋一下新細分市場的具體情況。

Sure. I think the message is also that the ISP segment is now routers and modules. So we've moved LoRa out of there, out of that segment. So there'll be a little bit more visibility into what the legacy Sierra businesses are. Routers and models will be in ISP. ICS remains unchanged. And then we've moved the LoRa business, NIC business under Madhu and under the AMW new segment.

當然。我認為這個訊息也表明 ISP 部分現在是路由器和模組。所以我們把 LoRa 移出了那裡，移出了那個部分。因此，人們將對 Sierra 的傳統業務有更多的了解。路由器和型號將在 ISP 中。ICS 保持不變。然後我們將 LoRa 業務、NIC 業務移至 Madhu 和 AMW 新部門下。

Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

克雷格·艾利斯，B.萊利證券。

Yeah, maybe just starting off with a clarification on some of your comments, Paul, regarding the 1.6T program that gets going late this year. The question is, how should we think about the share position the company has? And how should we think about the way that design win activity and engagement activity can diversify over time?

是的，保羅，也許首先要澄清一下您關於今年稍後啟動的 1.6T 計劃的一些評論。問題是，我們該如何看待公司的股權狀況？我們應該如何思考設計獲勝活動和參與活動如何隨著時間的推移而多樣化？

Yeah, it's a good question. I think share is something that's going to be decided over time. I think it's reasonable to expect us to share that business with one of our largest competitors in the space, MACOM. Right now, we're in a very good position in both 100 gig and 200 gig. And we really like the position that we're in in terms of being first to address a market that's moving very, very quickly.

是的，這是一個好問題。我認為份額是隨著時間的推移而決定的。我認為，期望我們與該領域最大的競爭對手之一 MACOM 分享該業務是合理的。目前，我們在 100 演出和 200 演出方面都處於非常有利的位置。我們非常喜歡我們所處的位置，因為我們能夠率先應對變化非常非常快的市場。

But I do think that it's reasonable to expect to see some share there as it settles down. I mean, in the beginning, it's definitely going to come down to performance. Best performance is going to win, but eventually, everybody's going to want to secure those supply chains.

但我確實認為，當它穩定下來時，期望看到一些份額是合理的。我的意思是，一開始，這肯定會歸結為性能。最好的表現將會獲勝，但最終，每個人都希望確保這些供應鏈的安全。

Got it. (multiple speakers)

知道了。（多個發言者）

In terms of design win, the design-in and design-win cadence -- sorry, I didn't answer that second half of the question. It's something where we get a spec. There's not a ton of visibility on what it exactly goes for. These programs are typically under NDA.

就設計獲勝而言，設計導入和設計獲勝的節奏——抱歉，我沒有回答問題的後半部分。這是我們獲得規格的地方。關於它的確切用途還沒有太多的了解。這些計劃通常處於保密協議 (NDA) 之下。

We get a spec, we turn the device. They give us a thumbs up. They say they like it. And then we turn it into production material. Occasionally, you need some tweaks on the device. But right now, we're fairly confident where we sit.

我們得到一個規格，然後轉動設備。他們向我們豎起大拇指。他們說他們喜歡它。然後我們將其轉化為生產材料。有時，您需要對設備進行一些調整。但現在，我們對自己的立場相當有信心。

Got it. Nice program. The question for you before I ask one for Mark is, I think if I look at just the arc of the business that you're describing, we're seeing some nice gains start to emerge here in fiscal first quarter, which is about a quarter earlier than I would have previously expected. And I think what you might have been mentioning previously with gains really coming in the second half of the fiscal year. So the question is this, Paul, are you just seeing a specific response to individual Semtech products or programs that's driving that? Or is inventory just in a little bit better shape than we all might have feared and you're starting to see some natural demand pull through in a number of the markets that you serve? Any color there would be helpful.

知道了。不錯的節目。在我問馬克之前，我想問你的問題是，如果我只看你所描述的業務弧線，我們會看到第一財季開始出現一些不錯的收益，這大約是比我之前預期的要早一個季度。我認為您之前可能已經提到過，收益確實會在本財年下半年實現。所以問題是，Paul，您是否只是看到了對推動這一趨勢的個別 Semtech 產品或計劃的具體反應？或者庫存狀況是否比我們所有人擔心的要好一些，並且您開始看到您所服務的許多市場出現了一些自然需求？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. I would separate my comments into two buckets. One, we talk about recovery of business. We're definitely, when we talk about PON, we're talking about recovery of business. When we talk about these new programs, we're talking about driving a roadmap, a revitalized roadmap in which we have new leadership on the engineering side that engineering team is executing to. So it's moving at a bit of a faster pace in terms of market adoption. The market dynamics are absolutely fantastic. I would separate that though from the recovery of the business.

是的。我會將我的評論分成兩部分。第一，我們談論業務的復甦。當我們談論 PON 時，我們肯定是在談論業務的恢復。當我們談論這些新計劃時，我們談論的是推動路線圖，這是一個重新煥發活力的路線圖，其中我們在工程團隊正在執行的工程方面擁有新的領導層。因此，就市場採用而言，它的發展速度要快一些。市場動態絕對是非常棒的。不過，我會將其與業務復甦分開。

So the first half contribution from PON was something that we certainly were anticipating and looking forward to. And it's just we knew that there was a budget that was being allocated out of the China government for infrastructure stimulus. We didn't know how big it was going to be and it was obviously delayed and so that moved things sideways a little bit for us. But right now, it looks like that's moving quite well. And then I would say from a new business point, we're having increasing conversations with North American infrastructure companies, Comcast to be one of those where we are looking at high speed PON projects in the US as well. So I think PON has got a number of years. It's got lots of legs, lots of runway here that we're going to enjoy. But that near-term recovery was definitely needed.

因此，上半年 PON 的貢獻是我們所期待和期待的。我們只是知道中國政府正在分配一項預算用於基礎設施刺激。我們不知道它會有多大，而且它顯然被推遲了，所以這對我們來說有點影響。但現在看來進展順利。然後我想說，從一個新的業務角度來看，我們正在與北美基礎設施公司進行越來越多的對話，康卡斯特也是我們在美國關注高速 PON 項目的公司之一。所以我認為PON已經有很多年了。這裡有很多腿、很多跑道，我們會喜歡的。但短期復甦絕對是必要的。

Hopefully, that gave you a little bit of color. Some of it is inventory drawdown, but it's not all inventory drawdowns. It really comes down to the SKU that we're looking at. In some cases, it's very lean. In some cases, there's channel inventory, and we just have to wait for that inventory to be depleted.

希望這能帶給你一點色彩。其中一些是庫存減少，但並非全部是庫存減少。這實際上取決於我們正在考慮的 SKU。在某些情況下，它非常精簡。在某些情況下，存在渠道庫存，我們只需等待庫存耗盡即可。

That's really helpful. Thank you so much, Paul. Mark, if I could just wrap it up with you. If I look at gross margin in the fiscal first quarter, they are a little bit better than I expected and it seems to be occurring as you just realize a lot of optimization gains whether it's getting the ERP system in, just doing things that result in positive operating and free cash flow. So can you just talk a little bit about how you see the underlying drivers to gross margin? Is this mix? Is it some optimization benefit? What is it? And how do we think about the way the arc can play out beyond just fiscal 1Q? Thank you.

這真的很有幫助。非常感謝你，保羅。馬克，如果我能和你一起結束這一切就好了。如果我看一下第一財季的毛利率，它們比我預期的要好一些，而且似乎正在發生，因為你剛剛意識到無論是引入ERP 系統，還是做一些能夠帶來結果的事情，都獲得了很多優化收益。那麼您能否簡單談談您如何看待毛利率的潛在驅動因素？這是混合嗎？這是一些優化的好處嗎？它是什麼？我們如何看待這弧線在第一財季之後的表現方式？謝謝。

Yes, sure. Yes, we are pleased with our gross margin performance. We came in at 48.9% non-GAAP for Q4, at the high-end of our guidance and we're guiding to 49.5%. A large part of that is mix though. So with the recovery in some of the businesses, especially in PON, right, those are above corporate averages. And but that said, as volumes are going up, I think we have a world class operations team. We are driving costs down and optimizing for a few basis points there, too. So, I'd say, though, primarily mix, but definitely some operational improvement as well.

是的，當然。是的，我們對毛利率表現感到滿意。第四季的非 GAAP 比率為 48.9%，處於我們指引的高端，我們的指引為 49.5%。其中很大一部分是混合的。因此，隨著一些業務的復甦，尤其是 PON 業務的復甦，這些業務高於企業平均水平。但話雖如此，隨著銷售量的增加，我認為我們擁有一支世界一流的營運團隊。我們也在降低成本並優化一些基點。所以，我想說，雖然主要是混合，但肯定也有一些營運改進。

Anthony Stoss, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

安東尼‧斯托斯，克雷格-哈勒姆資本集團。

Question for you Paul. I think your China PON business, if I'm not mistaken, back in 2022, quarterly peak about $37 million. I think you guys disclosed maybe a quarter ago, it dropped to about $12 million. Do you have any visibility on if you can get back towards the 2022 run rate and what timeframe? And then I had a follow-up.

保羅問你一個問題。我認為，如果我沒記錯的話，你們的中國 PON 業務早在 2022 年，季度高峰約為 3,700 萬美元。我想你們大概在一個季度前透露過，它下降到了大約 1200 萬美元。您是否知道是否可以恢復到 2022 年的運行率以及什麼時間範圍？然後我進行了跟進。

Yes, if memory serves, I think we peaked closer to $39 million. But we're going to make some nice inroads towards that. I think you still have to consider that some of that buying back in that time frame, it was pretty frothy buying in a constrained supply environment. So I would probably discount some of those peaks just a little bit in terms of thinking what a normal run rate is. And then if you don't ask me to tell you what that normal run rate number is, I'd say that we're going to get right back to that normal run rate number.

是的，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為我們的高峰接近 3900 萬美元。但我們將在這方面取得一些進展。我認為你仍然必須考慮到在那個時間範圍內的一些回購，在供應受限的環境下，這是相當泡沫化的購買。因此，在考慮正常運行率時，我可能會對其中一些峰值稍微打折扣。然後，如果您不要求我告訴您正常運行率數字是多少，我會說我們將立即回到正常運行率數字。

Maybe besting it a little bit because the ASPs on the 10 gig is going to be a little bit higher. So not quite to the peak because obviously it was a frothy environment, but pretty close.

也許會稍微好一些，因為 10 場演出的 ASP 會比較高。所以還沒有完全達到頂峰，因為顯然這是一個充滿泡沫的環境，但已經很接近了。

And if I could follow-up on the Cellular Modular Sierra business, you talked a couple of quarters ago about backlog and the actions that the FCC was taking. I'm just curious, I think at that time you talked about a bunch of design wins launching late calendar 2024? Can you maybe update us on that and what the backlog might look like?

如果我可以跟進 Cellular Modular Sierra 業務，您在幾個季度前談到了積壓問題以及 FCC 正在採取的行動。我只是很好奇，我想當時您談到了將於 2024 年晚些時候推出的一系列設計勝利？您能否向我們介紹一下最新情況以及積壓的情況？

Yes. Still making progress. We're not seeing backlog in place today if that's the question. We do expect this forward Q1 quarter, the quarter we're currently in, I've said that I think that it's going to be the low point for the hardware business. I'm certainly hopeful that it's going to be the low point. We might get a little sideways action with Q2.

是的。仍在進步。如果這是問題的話，我們今天沒有看到積壓。我們確實預計第一季度，即我們目前所處的季度，我已經說過，我認為這將是硬體業務的低點。我當然希望這會是最低點。第二季我們可能會出現一些橫盤走勢。

I can't really point to share loss. And so given some decent POS, underlying POS at our customers, end market consumption at our customers, we should see a pretty quick snapback on that business. But if I reflect on comments I made three quarters ago, I would still handicap the business around 460 annually once we get back into a more normative buying environment. So off of the peaks of the COVID cycle, but a good 460 number with the ability to grow beyond that.

我真的無法指出分擔損失。因此，考慮到一些不錯的 POS、我們客戶的基礎 POS、我們客戶的終端市場消費，我們應該會看到該業務的快速反彈。但如果我反思我三個季度前發表的評論，一旦我們回到更規範的購買環境，我仍然會每年將業務置於 460 左右的不利地位。雖然已經脫離了新冠疫情週期的高峰，但 460 的數字不錯，而且有能力繼續增長。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Paul for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議轉回給保羅致閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining us and have a great day.

感謝您加入我們，祝您有美好的一天。