Semtech Corp (SMTC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Semtech Corporation conference call to discuss the second quarter fiscal year 2024 financial results. Speakers for today's call will be: Paul Pickle, Semtech's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Emeka Chukwu, Semtech's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

您好，歡迎參加 Semtech Corporation 電話會議，討論 2024 財年第二季財務表現。今天電話會議的發言人包括：Semtech 總裁兼執行長 Paul Pickle； Semtech 執行副總裁兼財務長 Emeka Chukwu。

Please note that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Semtech's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Emeka Chukwu.

我現在想將電話轉給 Semtech 的執行副總裁兼財務長 Emeka Chukwu。

Thank you, operator. A press release announcing our unaudited results was issued after the market closed today and is available on our website at semtech.com.

謝謝你，接線生。今天收盤後發布了一份新聞稿，宣布我們未經審計的業績，可在我們的網站 semtech.com 上查看。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results anticipated in these statements. For a more detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please review the safe harbor statement included in today's press release and in the other Risk Factors section of our most recent periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中包括可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中預期結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。有關這些風險和不確定性的更詳細討論，請查看今天的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新定期報告的其他風險因素部分中包含的安全港聲明。

As a reminder, comments made on today's call are current as of today only and Semtech undertakes no obligation to update the information from this call should facts or circumstances change.

提醒一下，今天電話會議中的評論僅截至今天，如果事實或情況發生變化，Semtech 沒有義務更新本次電話會議中的資訊。

During this call, all references made to financial results other than net sales will refer to non-GAAP financial measures unless otherwise noted. A discussion of why the management team considers such non-GAAP financial measures useful, along with detailed reconciliations of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in today's press release.

在本次電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則除淨銷售額外所有提及的財務績效均指非公認會計準則財務指標。今天的新聞稿中討論了管理團隊為何認為此類非公認會計原則財務指標有用，以及此類非公認會計原則指標與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務指標的詳細調節。

Turning to Q2 of fiscal 2024, the company delivered net sales of $238.4 million, in line with the midpoint of our guidance and an increase of 1% sequentially and 14% year-over-year. Gross margin of 49.6% and earnings per share of $0.11 was above the high end of our guidance range.

談到 2024 財年第二季度，該公司實現淨銷售額 2.384 億美元，與我們指導的中位數一致，環比增長 1%，同比增長 14%。毛利率為 49.6%，每股收益為 0.11 美元，高於我們指導範圍的上限。

In Q2, shipments into North America, China, Europe and the rest of the world represented 24%, 29%, 14% and 33%, respectively. The addition of sheer awareness has increased our geographic mix towards North America and Europe.

第二季度，北美、中國、歐洲和世界其他地區的出貨量分別佔24%、29%、14%和33%。純粹意識的增加增加了我們對北美和歐洲的地理組合。

Total direct sales represented approximately 36% of net revenue and distribution represented the remaining 64%. In Q2, gross margin was 49.6%, above the guidance range driven by some onetime benefits.

直接銷售總額約佔淨收入的 36%，分銷總額約佔淨收入的 64%。第二季度，毛利率為 49.6%，高於一些一次性效益所推動的指引範圍。

For Q3, we expect gross margin to decrease approximately 160 basis points sequentially at the midpoint of our guidance as the favorable impact of a higher mix of IC components revenue is offset by the onetime benefits in Q2 and lower absorption. Due to the softer demand environment and the subsequently lower absorption, we expect our gross margins for the rest of the year to remain around current levels.

對於第三季度，我們預計毛利率將在我們指引的中點連續下降約 160 個基點，因為 IC 元件收入組合增加的有利影響被第二季度的一次性效益和較低的吸收率所抵消。由於需求環境疲軟以及隨後的吸收率下降，我們預計今年剩餘時間的毛利率將保持在當前水準附近。

In Q2, operating expenses was $86 million, 6% below the midpoint of guidance due to focused cost reduction actions in addition to synergies. We expect these cost reduction actions and incremental synergies to drive Q3 operating expense lower to between $81 million and $85 million.

第二季的營運支出為 8,600 萬美元，比指導中位數低 6%，這得益於協同效應之外的重點成本削減行動。我們預計這些成本削減行動和增量綜效將推動第三季營運費用降至 8,100 萬美元至 8,500 萬美元之間。

In Q2, cash flow from operations was a $12 million use of cash, impacted by demand softness and interest expense on our debt. Our cash flow from operations will remain a challenge in Q3 due to a softer demand environment.

第二季度，受到需求疲軟和債務利息支出的影響，營運現金流使用了 1,200 萬美元的現金。由於需求環境疲軟，我們的營運現金流在第三季仍將是一項挑戰。

Our gross debt at the end of Q2 was $1.4 billion or approximately 5.3x leverage on a net basis. We expect our leverage levels to increase for the remainder of the year as we navigate this softer demand environment. We expect to be in compliance with the financial covenants included in our debt agreement.

第二季末，我們的總負債為 14 億美元，淨槓桿比率約為 5.3 倍。我們預計，隨著我們應對需求疲軟的環境，我們的槓桿水準在今年剩餘時間內將會增加。我們希望遵守債務協議中包含的財務契約。

The Q2 weighted average cash interest rate was approximately 6.37%.

第二季加權平均現金利率約6.37%。

In summary, our financial performance continues to be impacted by macroeconomic headwinds. Meanwhile, we are taking focused actions to realign our operations to enable us not only to manage the current headwinds, but also to position us for strong earnings growth when the demand environment improves.

總之，我們的財務表現持續受到宏觀經濟逆風的影響。同時，我們正在採取有針對性的行動來調整我們的運營，使我們不僅能夠應對當前的不利因素，而且能夠在需求環境改善時使我們的盈利實現強勁增長。

I will now hand the call over to Paul.

我現在將電話轉交給保羅。

Thank you, Emeka. While our net sales for the second quarter met expectations, I'm proud to note that our cost saving measures enabled us to surpass estimates on both gross margin and EPS fronts.

謝謝你，艾梅卡。雖然我們第二季度的淨銷售額達到了預期，但我很自豪地註意到，我們的成本節約措施使我們在毛利率和每股收益方面都超出了預期。

Yet, as we navigate today's economic climate, our Q3 outlook remains cautiously reserved, reflecting elevated channel and customer inventories stemming from previously optimistic projections. We're intensifying our focus on cost control and operational enhancements in response.

然而，在我們應對當今的經濟環境時，我們對第三季的前景仍然持謹慎態度，這反映出先前樂觀預測帶來的管道和客戶庫存增加。作為回應，我們正在加強對成本控制和營運增強的關注。

IC component sales, after an initial dip this fiscal year, is now showing stability with a 16% sequential growth in net sales. Further improvement is anticipated for the rest of the year and into the next due to customer design engagements being primed to boost consumption in the upcoming quarters, particularly in the infrastructure and consumer end markets.

IC 元件銷售額在本財年最初出現下滑後，目前已呈現穩定狀態，淨銷售額較上季成長 16%。由於客戶設計活動準備在未來幾季促進消費，特別是在基礎設施和消費終端市場，預計今年剩餘時間和明年將進一步改善。

Our IoT systems product group witnessed an 11% sequential decline, bringing the total to $119 million on a pro forma basis. While we have experienced a decline in demand for both module and router products, modules revenue is presenting a particular challenge in the current quarter. However, we are seeing silver linings in the broadband module business horizon, with legislative discussions putting our low-cost APAC competitors under the spotlight. This presents us with an unexpected opportunity to expand our market share.

我們的物聯網系統產品組季減了 11%，預估總額達 1.19 億美元。儘管我們對模組和路由器產品的需求都出現了下降，但模組收入在本季面臨著特殊的挑戰。然而，我們在寬頻模組業務領域看到了一線希望，立法討論將我們的低成本亞太競爭對手置於聚光燈下。這為我們提供了一個意想不到的擴大市場份額的機會。

In-quarter pipeline engagements have significantly increased as a result, and we're gearing up to seize this window to our advantage. Despite a minor drop in wireless radio-enabled component sales, LoRa end node sales increased slightly. LoRa's potential for private networks, especially where power reach and mobility are crucial, remain significant. While LoRa may not be a cellular infrastructure substitute, its unmatched value proposition for specialized private networks remains undebated. We're envisioning a more inclusive strategy to harness this vast potential, especially at the outer fringes of the IoT realm.

因此，季度內的管道參與度顯著增加，我們正在準備抓住這個窗口以發揮我們的優勢。儘管無線射頻組件銷量略有下降，但 LoRa 終端節點銷量略有成長。 LoRa 在專用網路中的潛力仍然巨大，尤其是在功率範圍和移動性至關重要的情況下。雖然 LoRa 可能不是蜂窩基礎設施的替代品，但其對專用專用網路無與倫比的價值主張仍沒有爭議。我們正在設想一種更具包容性的策略來利用這一巨大潛力，特別是在物聯網領域的外圍。

Q2 IoT connected services remained relatively consistent at $24 million. A 20% year-over-year growth was achieved from smart and enhanced carrier connectivity. Given the relatively low attachment rates for our cloud services platform, we will be focusing on enhancing hardware revenue with a high-margin software sales and a renewed focus for our IoT managed connectivity and cloud platforms.

第二季物聯網連線服務相對穩定，為 2,400 萬美元。 20% 的同比增長得益於智慧和增強的運營商連接。鑑於我們的雲端服務平台的連接率相對較低，我們將專注於透過高利潤的軟體銷售來提高硬體收入，並重新關注我們的物聯網管理連接和雲端平台。

The Signal Integrity Products Group grew 12% sequentially in Q2 quarter to $46 million. Cloud hyperscale data center revenue was significantly up sequentially in the quarter, benefiting from the momentum in AI-driven applications. Product sales were driven by strong 100-gig, 200-gig, 400-gig data center and broadcast revenue. Tri-Edge and FiberEdge applications all improved sequentially with a large U.S. hyperscaler placing initial orders for a 400-gig active optical cable application.

訊號完整性產品集團第二季季增 12%，達到 4,600 萬美元。受惠於人工智慧驅動應用的發展勢頭，雲端超大規模資料中心營收在本季環比大幅成長。產品銷售受到強勁的 100 GB、200 GB、400 GB 資料中心和廣播收入的推動。 Tri-Edge 和 FiberEdge 應用均相繼改善，美國一家大型超大規模企業首次訂購了 400 吉有源光纜應用。

These gains were offset by a weaker 10-gig China PON and wireless infrastructure revenue. Channel inventories remain high amidst improving, although cyclically weak, end-market demand. China infrastructure demand, although stable, remains muted. Our product portfolio in PON is well positioned and is poised to benefit when this market rebounds in the upcoming quarters.

這些收益被中國 10G PON 和無線基礎設施收入疲軟所抵消。儘管終端市場需求週期性疲軟，但通路庫存仍較高。中國的基礎設施需求雖然穩定，但仍低迷。我們在 PON 領域的產品組合定位良好，並有望在未來幾季市場反彈時受益。

The advanced sensing and protection products grew 35% sequentially, primarily driven by anticipated production of new design-ins secured in smartphone applications.

先進感測和保護產品連續成長 35%，主要受到智慧型手機應用中新設計插件的預期生產的推動。

We are especially well positioned with new protection circuitry for a North American smartphone vendor. Proximity sensing or our PerSe product was also up in the quarter, ahead of anticipated regulations in China for specific absorption ratio limits starting in fiscal year '25.

我們在為北美智慧型手機供應商提供新保護電路方面處於特別有利的地位。接近感測或我們的 PerSe 產品在本季也有所成長，領先中國從 25 財年開始實施特定吸收率限制的預期法規。

PerSe is still in the early innings of the design cycle, but the penetration and early ramp is encouraging. We continue to make progress in diversifying our end markets for the advanced sensing and Protection Products Group with approximately 1/2 of product revenue coming from industrial, telecom and automotive applications.

PerSe 仍處於設計週期的早期階段，但滲透率和早期成長令人鼓舞。我們在先進感測和保護產品集團的終端市場多元化方面繼續取得進展，約 1/2 的產品收入來自工業、電信和汽車應用。

For Q3 2024, we project net sales between $190 million and $210 million. Non-GAAP earnings for Q2 (sic) [Q3] are expected to range between minus $0.09 and plus (sic) [minus] $0.22 per diluted share.

對於 2024 年第三季度，我們預計淨銷售額將在 1.9 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間。第二季（原文如此）[第三季]的非公認會計原則收益預計將在稀釋後每股負 0.09 美元到正（原文如此）[負]0.22 美元之間。

We're steadfast in our commitment to the synergy plan presented to investors earlier this year and aim to fulfill it ahead of schedule. Post my induction, I launched a robust cost reduction initiative which, along with other measures, has decreased our OpEx run rate by about $100 million compared to the last year's combined entity pro forma. Further refinements are on the horizon.

我們堅定不移地履行今年稍早向投資者提交的協同計劃的承諾，並力爭提前實現該計劃。入職後，我發起了一項強有力的成本削減計劃，與其他措施一起，與去年合併後的實體相比，我們的營運支出運行率降低了約 1 億美元。進一步的改進即將到來。

During my short tenure at Semtech, I've been immensely impressed by our team's dedication and talent. Our unique state-of-the-art products create a competitive barrier setting us apart. After extensive discussions with team members, I'm optimistic about navigating current market challenges. The tech industry is seeing fluctuations due to pandemic-driven demand, but the need for electronic advancements remains robust.

在 Semtech 的短暫任期內，我們團隊的奉獻精神和才華給我留下了深刻的印象。我們獨特的最先進的產品創造了競爭壁壘，使我們與眾不同。經過與團隊成員的廣泛討論後，我對應對當前的市場挑戰持樂觀態度。由於大流行驅動的需求，科技業正在經歷波動，但對電子進步的需求仍然強勁。

At Semtech, our vision is clear: enable a smarter, more connected planet. Our focus for the upcoming months will be to execute this vision.

在 Semtech，我們的願景很明確：打造一個更聰明、更連結的地球。我們未來幾個月的重點將是執行這個願景。

I'll now turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

我現在將其轉交給接線員進行問答。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Craig Ellis。

Hello, Craig?

你好，克雷格？

I think we have to take everybody off mute.

我認為我們必須讓每個人都不再保持沉默。

Our first question is from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的第一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

Paul, welcome to Semtech. I guess first question, obviously, guidance coming in, I think, much below expectations on a revenue basis. The semiconductor business has already been hit pretty hard by the combination of weak demand and market inventory. Paul, Emeka, can you give us some sense for the October guide at $200 million? Is the semiconductor business flat, down or up?

保羅，歡迎來到 Semtech。我想第一個問題，顯然，我認為，基於收入的指導遠低於預期。半導體業務已經受到需求疲軟和市場庫存的雙重打擊。 Paul、Emeka，您能為我們介紹一下 10 月份 2 億美元指南嗎？半導體業務是持平、下降還是上升？

And where do you see the Sierra wireless contribution coming in, in the October quarter? It looks like it's got to be well below $100 million if the semiconductor business, as I think you indicated in the script, might be flat to trending higher in the back half of the fiscal year.

您認為 Sierra wireless 在十月季度的貢獻將來自哪裡？如果半導體業務（正如我認為您在腳本中指出的那樣）在本財年後半段可能持平或呈上升趨勢，那麼看起來它的價格必須遠低於 1 億美元。

Yes. Thank you for the question, Quinn. I think for the most part, we've definitely seen a bottoming out of semiconductors. It happened fairly early in the cycle. And of late, I think we've seen a little bit of pullback in hardware. Routers is off in terms of end market demand. And when I say end market demand, I'm really looking at POS numbers. So it's off slightly, but modules have substantially pulled back. The mix between those routers does tend to be heavy channel dependent. Those inventories are not too terribly out of whack given the POS pullback. But modules is largely a direct business, and we've seen at least some indicated from our direct customers that they are sitting on some substantial inventories over the next several quarters.

是的。謝謝你的提問，奎因。我認為在很大程度上，我們肯定已經看到半導體產業觸底反彈。它發生在周期的早期。最近，我認為我們已經看到硬體方面出現了一些回落。路由器在終端市場需求方面處於低點。當我說終端市場需求時，我實際上關注的是 POS 數量。所以它略有下降，但模組已大幅回落。這些路由器之間的組合往往嚴重依賴通道。考慮到 POS 的回調，這些庫存並沒有太嚴重。但模組在很大程度上是一項直接業務，我們至少看到一些直接客戶表示，他們在未來幾季將擁有大量庫存。

So I've seen the hardware business pull back. Semiconductors conversely is doing fairly well, skipping along the bottom. Perhaps we're beyond the dead cat bounce that one looks forward to resume a kind of normal rate. And then I'd say for the most part going forward, we'd expect continued improvement in the high-margin semiconductor business versus the hardware.

所以我看到硬體業務出現萎縮。相反，半導體表現相當不錯，一直在底部跳躍。也許我們已經超越了死貓反彈，人們期待著恢復一種正常的速度。然後我想說，在未來的大部分時間裡，我們預計高利潤半導體業務相對於硬體將持續改善。

Great. And then a follow-up question. Paul, you referenced sort of having already reduced the OpEx run rate with synergies and other actions by $100 million. You guided OpEx in Q3 to a level of $81 million to $85 million. Is that the right baseline to think and model going forward? Do you think you can bring non-GAAP OpEx even lower? And how long will you hold OpEx at kind of that baseline level before you start to increase OpEx?

偉大的。然後是後續問題。 Paul，您提到透過協同效應和其他行動已經將營運支出降低了 1 億美元。您將第三季的營運支出引導至 8,100 萬美元至 8,500 萬美元的水平。這是未來思考和建模的正確基準嗎？您認為您可以進一步降低非 GAAP 營運支出嗎？在開始增加營運支出之前，您會將營運支出保持在該基準水平多久？

So the way -- it's a good question. I wouldn't necessarily look at the current quarter as a baseline. We're going to have some ebbs and flows in that number in terms of R&D projects. There was pull back on R&D projects in the previous quarters, those are coming into fruition now, which kind of -- if you read between the lines there, it says our baseline is perhaps a little bit better than what we're currently showing.

所以，這是一個很好的問題。我不一定會將當前季度作為基準。在研發項目方面，我們的數字將會出現一些起伏。前幾季的研發項目有所縮減，但這些項目現在正在取得成果，如果你從字裡行間讀到，它表明我們的基線可能比我們目前所展示的要好一點。

In terms of how good can it be, I think the way I kind of look at it and the way the team is looking at is to say, all right, everybody kind of bloated expense during the COVID cycle. So if we go back, imagine a run rate business that was pre-COVID, look at those OpEx levels where the company used to be at, we should be able to easily get back there.

就它能有多好而言，我認為我和團隊的看法是，好吧，在新冠病毒週期期間，每個人的開支都有點膨脹。因此，如果我們回顧過去，想像一下新冠疫情之前的營運率業務，看看公司過去的營運支出水平，我們應該能夠輕鬆回到那裡。

So I think that there's -- without giving you an absolute number, there's improvements to be made. The first tranche is I don't want to say easy because it's always difficult to make those changes. The decision-making is perhaps a little bit easier.

所以我認為，雖然沒有給你一個絕對數字，但仍然需要改進。第一部分是我不想說容易，因為做出這些改變總是很困難。決策可能會比較容易一些。

The second tranche needs to be a bit more thoughtful going forward. And so I need to spend some more time discovering the workings of the organization and how it can be optimized and expect that to be continual improvement on a go-forward basis. But I do believe that there is more efficiency for this company to garner.

第二階段需要更加深思熟慮。因此，我需要花更多的時間來發現組織的運作方式以及如何對其進行最佳化，並期望在前進的基礎上不斷改進。但我確實相信這家公司可以提高效率。

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Craig Ellis。

Trying again. Paul, welcome to the call. I want to start, Paul, with an intermediate-term question for you. Since this is your first call, can you just take a step back and look out over the next 6 to 12 months and just frame up what your priorities are as you come into the role and start to interact with The Street and look at the initial phase of optimizations you can make with the Semtech business?

再試一次。保羅，歡迎您的來電。保羅，我首先想問你一個中期問題。由於這是您第一次接到電話，您能否退後一步，展望未來6 到12 個月，並在您進入該職位並開始與華爾街互動並查看最初的目標時，確定您的優先事項是什麼？

That is a great question. I think when you come into a company, you'd like to be afforded the opportunity to learn and really go through a proper discovery purpose -- or process. And I think we've -- the current state of the economy, the current state of the company has necessitated a, "Hey, we're going to have to walk and chew gum at the same time" coming in and enacting some cuts.

這是一個很好的問題。我認為當你進入一家公司時，你希望有機會學習並真正經歷適當的發現目的或過程。我認為，目前的經濟狀況、公司的現狀已經迫使我們採取一些削減措施，「嘿，我們將不得不一邊走路一邊嚼口香糖」。

I will say my priorities are a little bit split. And I believe that's not as -- it's really kind of a twofold approach, needs to be done in parallel where we kind of look at how can we structure the company for its most efficient profitability model given the current makings, projects, products and then the various go-to-markets along with assessing what we're really good at, the beachheads and technology that we have and putting together a good strategic plan for a long-term vision and long-term operating model.

我會說我的優先事項有點分散。我認為這並不是——這實際上是一種雙重方法，需要並行完成，我們要考慮如何根據當前的組成、項目、產品來構建公司，以實現最有效的盈利模式，然後各種進入市場，評估我們真正擅長的領域、我們擁有的灘頭陣地和技術，並為長期願景和長期營運模式製定良好的策略計劃。

I think we're making nice progress. I'm making nice progress along those fronts. I would say of late, it seems like I spent a good portion of my day on the journey of the urgent, an affectionate term. But still, we have a good team here. As soon as we identify something, I'm able to delegate and continue to kind of think a little bit longer term.

我認為我們正在取得不錯的進展。我在這些方面取得了很好的進展。我想說，最近，我似乎花了一天的大部分時間在緊急的、深情的術語的旅程上。但是，我們這裡仍然有一支優秀的團隊。一旦我們確定了某件事，我就可以授權並繼續進行更長遠的思考。

So short term, get us back to financial health and on the intermediate constructive plan for long-term operating model and vision that works and will drive shareholder value.

因此，從短期來看，讓我們回到財務健康狀況，並製定長期營運模式和願景的中期建設性計劃，該計劃有效並將推動股東價值。

That's real helpful. And then I'll follow up with Emeka, on a couple of clarifications. So, Emeka, can you just help us understand how we compare the prior $50 million Sierra-related synergies target with the $100 million in expense reduction that Paul just mentioned.

這真的很有幫助。然後我將與 Emeka 進行跟進，並做出一些澄清。那麼，Emeka，您能否幫助我們了解如何將先前與 Sierra 相關的 5000 萬美元協同效應目標與保羅剛才提到的 1 億美元費用削減進行比較。

And then with respect to the gross margin color, what are the biggest changes that have occurred from where we were expecting 100 to 150 basis points of expansion through the year to flattish from here?

那麼就毛利率而言，從我們預計今年將擴張 100 到 150 個基點到持平，發生的最大變化是什麼？

Craig, so with regards to the synergies, I think the last time I gave a number for the synergies, I said it was about $50 million that we were expecting. I think we're doing a little bit better than that now. I don't have an exact number, but we're doing a little bit better than that. And then in addition to some of the other actions that Paul has already taken in the company, that is how we're getting to a $100 million reduction from a pro forma number.

克雷格，關於協同效應，我想上次我給出協同效應的數字時，我說過我們預計的金額約為 5000 萬美元。我認為我們現在做得比以前好一點。我沒有確切的數字，但我們做得比這個好一點。然後，除了保羅已經在公司採取的一些其他行動之外，這就是我們如何從預計數字中減少 1 億美元。

With regards to gross margin, it's actually very simple. We are seeing the benefit of the mix, of a higher mix of the IC component revenues. That is good for gross margin. However, when the guidance was initially discussed, Craig, the expectation was that the revenue levels would be much higher and we'll be able to improve the utilization of our manufacturing, our manufacturing businesses and stuff like that.

關於毛利率，其實很簡單。我們看到了這種組合的好處，即 IC 元件收入的更高組合的好處。這對毛利率有利。然而，克雷格，當最初討論該指導意見時，我們的預期是收入水平會高得多，我們將能夠提高製造業、製造業務等的利用率。

So right now, we have a lot of fixed manufacturing overhead that we're not able to absorb and that is the primary reason for coming off of the previously expectation that was set for about 100 to 150 basis points in gross margin improvement.

因此，目前我們有大量無法消化的固定製造費用，這是我們未能實現先前設定的毛利率提高約 100 至 150 個基點的預期的主要原因。

That's helpful. If I could just sneak one more in for Paul. Paul, you commented in your prepared remarks about the strength in signal integrity and it looked like it was within data center. Can you just talk about the visibility you have to that strength and what some of the specific program drivers are for that?

這很有幫助。如果我能為保羅再偷一次就好了。保羅，您在準備好的評論中評論了訊號完整性的強度，看起來它是在資料中心內。您能否談談您對該優勢的了解以及一些具體的計劃驅動因素是什麼？

So we've got quite a bit of visibility there. It's -- I will say though, it's a bit more difficult to plan for those particular customers because when they're ready to go, they turn on a dime. And it's also the kind of thing that we don't have a ton of channel inventory that's out there waiting to be consumed either. So it's -- we're cognizant of it. It's very much a hands-on process where we're running proof of concepts, understanding that the programs are coming and staging them, getting ready for when the orders drop down. In terms of planning that in a particular quarter, it's a bit more difficult.

所以我們在那裡有相當多的知名度。不過，我要說的是，為這些特定客戶制定計劃有點困難，因為當他們準備好出發時，他們會立即採取行動。而且我們也沒有大量等待消耗的通路庫存。所以，我們認識到這一點。這在很大程度上是一個實踐過程，我們正在運行概念驗證，了解程式即將到來並進行準備，為訂單下降做好準備。就特定季度的規劃而言，有點困難。

So I think we have a good sense that it's going to be coming a bit more of a relevant figure for us over the next several quarters, but exactly which quarter is a little bit more difficult for me to determine.

因此，我認為我們有一個很好的感覺，即在接下來的幾個季度中，該數字對我們來說將更加相關，但具體是哪個季度對我來說有點難以確定。

Our next question comes from Anthony Stoss with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自安東尼·斯托斯和克雷格·哈勒姆。

Paul, just to put a finer point on what Quinn was asking on OpEx. So if there was some, I guess, onetime things that elevated the OpEx, should we think about OpEx coming down a couple of million dollars each quarter sequentially? And at what point do you think your goal of getting to $100 million cost taken out in total will be done, in which quarter? And I have a couple of follow-ups.

Paul，只是為了更好地闡述 Quinn 對營運支出的要求。因此，我想，如果曾經有一些事情提高了營運支出，我們是否應該考慮營運支出每季連續下降幾百萬美元？您認為在什麼時候（哪個季度）可以實現總共消除 1 億美元成本的目標？我還有一些後續行動。

So I don't think I said a couple of hundred million dollars. But I think on a run rate basis, we're $100 million off. I think we can improve that. I won't put a number on it at this juncture. In terms of the rate of falloff, I think I don't expect it to be significant windfall chunks that happen, but we'll be looking to execute as quickly as possible. And I'll say through Q1 is the current plan to have most of those operational efficiencies in place. After that, it would be continued improvement that we would look to enact. So try to give you a little bit of a time line. I'll avoid putting an exact number on it until I have a good feel for what that budgeting exercise is.

所以我不認為我說的是幾億美元。但我認為，以運行率計算，我們可以節省 1 億美元。我認為我們可以改進這一點。目前我不會透露具體數字。就下降率而言，我認為我預計不會發生重大意外之財，但我們將尋求盡快執行。我要說的是，目前的計劃是透過第一季實現大部分營運效率。之後，我們將尋求持續改進。所以試著給你一點時間線。在我對預算工作有很好的了解之前，我會避免給出確切的數字。

Got it. And then at what point are you going to reach a determination of what assets you may want to keep either from Sierra or Semtech? Are you getting closer to that?

知道了。然後您將在什麼時候決定您可能想要保留 Sierra 或 Semtech 的哪些資產？你離那個越來越近了嗎？

I think if I look at -- first of all, right now, every asset that's a positive contribution is an asset to keep at this juncture unless I can hit certain clearance ratios associated with those assets. And that really kind of comes down to the short-term exercise. If you ask me, long term, do I need certain assets, I've already made a determination what is strategic in my mind and critical for our future.

我認為，首先，現在，每一項具有正面貢獻的資產都是在這個時刻保留的資產，除非我能夠達到與這些資產相關的某些清算比率。這實際上取決於短期鍛鍊。如果你問我，從長遠來看，我是否需要某些資產，我已經決定什麼是我心中的策略且對我們的未來至關重要。

Other than that, we don't need certain assets in order to get that job done for the long-term vision of where we'd like to go. I'd like to spend a little bit more time on that plan, but I have a good sense of which assets I can divest, and it just comes down to whether or not I can reach those clearance ratios.

除此之外，我們不需要某些資產來完成我們想要實現的長期願景的工作。我想在這個計劃上多花一點時間，但我很清楚我可以剝離哪些資產，這取決於我是否能達到這些清算比率。

Having said that, I really don't think this is a conducive environment to doing a deal or running a process. So my goal and my determination at this point is to be -- is to get the company to a point where we are not forced to do a divestiture, but we can do that if it strategically makes sense. I think of it more as a long-term principal paydown.

話雖如此，我確實認為這不是一個有利於達成交易或運作流程的環境。因此，我目前的目標和決心是──讓公司達到這樣一個目標：我們不會被迫進行資產剝離，但如果策略上有意義的話，我們可以這樣做。我更多地將其視為長期本金償還。

Got it. And last question, just your comments related to the FCC coming out last week, highlighting the Chinese module makers and you said your pipeline is increasing. This has been discussed in the commerce department and other agencies for almost 2 years. What's giving you confidence now that they actually might do something?

知道了。最後一個問題，您剛剛發表了與上週發布的 FCC 相關的評論，強調了中國模組製造商，並且您說您的管道正在增加。商務部和其他機構對此已經討論了近兩年。現在是什麼讓您有信心他們實際上可能會做某事？

Yes. We saw a significant boost in the pipeline. And I think it's to the point where I'll quote one customer, they don't believe that it's necessarily an issue or risk, but they just don't feel like they can fight the politics anymore.

是的。我們看到了管道的顯著增長。我認為我要引用一位客戶的話，他們認為這不一定是一個問題或風險，但他們只是覺得自己無法再與政治作鬥爭。

So if we kind of look at it from that standpoint, I think we -- if I can offer the better quality, better security, maybe a slight premium to the cost that they're currently paying for a low-cost APAC counterpart, I don't know why somebody wouldn't come my way because we're certainly going to solve that problem. We also have the ability to put in place TAA-compliant modules if that becomes a requirement as well.

因此，如果我們從這個角度來看，我認為如果我能夠提供更好的品質、更好的安全性，也許比他們目前為低成本亞太地區同行支付的成本略高一些，我不知道為什麼有人不來找我，因為我們一定會解決這個問題。如果也有要求，我們也有能力安裝符合 TAA 的模組。

So it really kind of comes down to from an infrastructure or critical industrial applications, we will be the guy to beat, and we're going to make sure that we're the guys to beat.

因此，這實際上取決於基礎設施或關鍵工業應用，我們將成為被擊敗的人，我們將確保我們成為被擊敗的人。

Our next question comes from Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Harsh Kumar 和 Piper Sandler。

Paul, congratulations on your first earnings here at Semtech.

Paul，恭喜您在 Semtech 獲得第一份收入。

Thank you, Harsh.

謝謝你，嚴酷。

Paul, what you've got here is you've got 2 companies, couple of different product lines, and as an analyst, I'm trying to understand what is Semtech, what is Sierra Wireless. And I was wondering just from a sake of simplicity, if you would be willing to give us how much is core Semtech revenues and how much is core Sierra Wireless revenues. And within Sierra Wireless, if you don't mind breaking out routers versus modules because you called out -- I think you said the routers were up slightly and margins were down quite a bit. So I was wondering if you could help us level set some parts and pieces so we can be better at modeling.

Paul，你現在擁有兩家公司，幾條不同的產品線，身為分析師，我試著去了解什麼是 Semtech，什麼是 Sierra Wireless。為了簡單起見，我想知道您是否願意告訴我們 Semtech 的核心收入是多少，Sierra Wireless 的核心收入是多少。在 Sierra Wireless 內部，如果您不介意將路由器與模組分開，因為您大聲疾呼——我想您說過路由器價格略有上漲，而利潤率則大幅下降。所以我想知道你是否可以幫助我們水平設置一些零件，以便我們可以更好地建模。

Yes. And so if we look -- my commentary was on modules versus router within the current quarter, so I'm kind of projecting a little bit, really kind of talking about the guidance here. You get routers -- I'm going to give you some rough percentages, so don't expect us to reconcile to the dollar. But essentially, you've got $300 million of module business; you've got $100 million connectivity; and $100 million of routers. I'm really oversimplifying the actual buckets and allocations.

是的。因此，如果我們看一下——我的評論是關於當前季度的模組與路由器的，所以我有點預測，真的有點談論這裡的指導。你會得到路由器——我會給你一些粗略的百分比，所以不要指望我們會與美元保持一致。但本質上，你已經擁有了 3 億美元的模組業務；您擁有價值 1 億美元的連結；以及價值 1 億美元的路由器。我確實過於簡化了實際的儲存桶和分配。

But routers pulled back approximately 30% to 35% or so, but modules are substantially off in the going-forward quarter. I don't expect that to sustain at those levels. I expect that inventory to be consumed. It is a business where you end up placing a purchase order for a chipset manufacturer, so any acquisition of those chipsets really need to make sure that the modules follow through. And so a lot of those orders tend to be in C&R. So you can kind of see how we had a bit of a pile up even at the end customers, even though modules is largely direct, about 80% direct business, so good visibility into those customers, good visibility into demand.

但路由器的銷量下降了約 30% 至 35% 左右，但模組在接下來的季度中大幅下降。我預計這種情況不會維持在這樣的水平。我預計庫存會被消耗掉。在這項業務中，您最終會向晶片組製造商下達採購訂單，因此對這些晶片組的任何收購都確實需要確保模組得到落實。因此，許多訂單往往是在 C&R 中。因此，您可以看到我們如何在最終客戶處累積了一些積壓，儘管模組很大程度上是直接的，大約80% 是直接業務，因此對這些客戶的可見性很好，對需求的可見性也很好。

I'd say that their consumption, their end market demand is off a little bit, but it really it does come down to the ordering patterns that kind of made this happen.

我想說的是，他們的消費，他們的終端市場需求有點下降，但實際上，這確實歸結為導致這種情況發生的訂購模式。

Paul, that was super helpful. And then the other one that a lot of the customers or clients or investors are asking us is they truly believe, and I think you're seeing this pretty much, that Semtech is off the ground and kind of -- or let's just say, hovering along the bottom with things looking a little bit brighter. But customers really want to understand, maybe simplistically put, how many more months or quarters or weeks of excess inventory exists there before we maybe start to see similar positive trends at Sierra Wireless. Would you be willing to shed some color on that?

保羅，這非常有幫助。然後，很多客戶或投資者問我們的另一個問題是，他們真的相信，我想你已經看到了這一點，Semtech 已經起步，或者可以這麼說，沿著底部盤旋，東西看起來有點亮。但客戶確實想了解，也許簡單地說，在我們可能開始在 Sierra Wireless 看到類似的積極趨勢之前，那裡還存在多少個月、幾個季度或幾週的過剩庫存。你願意對此發表一些看法嗎？

Sure. I definitely take kind of an end demand or consumption look at the business and I've been going through that pretty exhaustively at least on the IC side. We've got really good data that exists in our analytics systems here. And so I can say confidently that at this juncture, we've got a couple of quarters underneath us where that end market consumption has stabilized.

當然。我肯定會從最終需求或消費角度來看待這項業務，至少在 IC 方面，我已經非常詳盡地了解了這一點。我們的分析系統中存在著非常好的數據。因此，我可以自信地說，在這個時刻，我們還有幾個季度的時間，終端市場消費已經穩定下來。

And in fact, we're starting to see some upticks. I'll say the possibility exists for some Q4 upside, although we're not currently putting it in, in the forecast. And so it does feel like we've been skipping along the bottom here, at least for the semiconductor business.

事實上，我們開始看到一些上升。我想說第四季度存在一些上漲的可能性，儘管我們目前尚未將其納入預測中。因此，我們確實感覺我們已經在底部跳躍了，至少對於半導體業務來說是這樣。

In hardware, I think it's a bit of a couple of different factors. Its surged cycle kind of happened in -- alongside semiconductors, but due to supply chain and cycle times, you get a little bit of a pile up or a later effect. That whipsaw effect is coming in a little bit later stage. But for the most part, I still have a high degree of confidence in the overall health of the business. There's not one piece of business here that I can note that is going to terminate early or accelerate end of life. And so it's merely a product, as you noted, of just kind of consuming channel inventories and then focusing our go-to-market sales efforts and making sure that we're not leaving any stone unturned.

在硬體方面，我認為這是由幾個不同的因素決定的。它的激增週期有點與半導體一起發生，但由於供應鏈和週期時間，你會得到一點堆積或後期效應。這種鋸齒效應將在稍後階段出現。但在大多數情況下，我仍然對業務的整體健康狀況充滿信心。據我所知，這裡沒有一項業務會提前終止或加速生命週期的結束。因此，正如您所指出的，這只是一種消耗通路庫存的產品，然後專注於我們的市場銷售工作，並確保我們不遺餘力。

So in terms of how many quarters of inventory, I've largely believed that we're not going to spring back. I'm not quoting a V-shaped recovery where we're going to spring back to previous levels. I think those were largely overstated. All true, all good orders, but customers were extremely optimistic. They were just -- they were telling the truth, they were just wrong in terms of how much product they needed. So I kind of think in terms of a bit of a U-shaped recovery, how it's going to play out in the results. And I still think mid-next year recovery cycle for us would largely be in line of channel inventory drawdown along with a methodical pickup in POS, back to moderate levels.

因此，就庫存數量而言，我基本上相信我們不會反彈。我並不是引用 V 型復甦，即我們將回到先前的水平。我認為這些在很大程度上被誇大了。一切都是事實，訂單都很好，但客戶非常樂觀。他們只是——他們說的是實話，他們只是在需要多少產品方面錯了。所以我認為U型復甦會如何影響結果。我仍然認為，我們明年中期的復甦週期將在很大程度上與通路庫存減少以及 POS 系統的恢復一致，回到適度水平。

Can I sneak in just one last one? Do you think things get worse from the guidance that you gave of roughly, call it, $200 million? Do you think we go take another step down? Or do you think we're troughing at the bottom for your total business?

我可以偷偷溜進去最後一張嗎？你認為事情會因為你給出的大約 2 億美元的指導而變得更糟嗎？你認為我們要再退​​一步嗎？或者您認為我們的整體業務正處於谷底嗎？

I believe it's at the bottom.

我相信它在底部。

Our next question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tore Svanberg 和 Stifel。

Welcome, Paul. And Emeka, I assume this is your last call. So thank you for all the interactions over the years. My first question for you, Paul. So it sounds like you're finding a bottom. But assuming that we kind of stay here for a while, at what point would you have to take some actions as far as the balance sheet is concerned? Because you're 5.3x levered. That number is only going to go up next quarter. So at what point, what are some of the things that you're looking for to take some more drastic actions?

歡迎，保羅。艾梅卡，我想這是你最後一次打電話了。感謝您多年來的所有互動。我問你的第一個問題，保羅。所以聽起來你正在尋找底部。但假設我們在這裡停留一段時間，那麼就資產負債表而言，您在什麼時候必須採取一些行動？因為你的槓桿是 5.3 倍。這個數字只會在下個季度上升。那麼，您希望在什麼時候採取哪些措施來採取更激烈的行動呢？

Well, the first step is the size of the business according to what end market consumption is. I don't want to get into the point where I cut too deep into R&D and limit our ability to grow in the future. So philosophically speaking, we're kind of looking at all support functions, and trying to optimize the organization.

嗯，第一步是根據終端市場消費來決定業務規模。我不想陷入研發投入過深而限制我們未來發展能力的地步。所以從哲學上來說，我們正在考慮所有支援功能，並嘗試優化組織。

I will say, from that standpoint, I do think that there was a lot of optimization to be had. So spending levels didn't need to be at the levels that they were in the combined entities in order to support the businesses that they have. So I do think that there's some improvements there to be made, and I think that we'll be in fairly good shape.

我想說的是，從這個角度來看，我確實認為還有很多優化需要。因此，支出水準不需要達到合併後實體的水準才能支援其擁有的業務。所以我確實認為還需要做出一些改進，而且我認為我們將處於相當好的狀態。

I think that exercise, given the fact that the capital end markets are not -- it's not really conducive to doing a divestiture, although we're not opposed to that. All cards are on the table in addressing the balance sheet. I am really resigned to making sure that we get there on our own organically and can develop a plan that drives 12 to 18 months of confidence in the model to drive those covenants. And I think that we're -- we've got that developed. Anything on top of that would be additional and an improvement in the current outlook.

我認為，考慮到資本終端市場並不真正有利於剝離，儘管我們並不反對這樣做。在處理資產負債表時，所有的牌都擺在桌面上。我真的很樂意確保我們能夠靠自己的力量實現這一目標，並能夠制定一項計劃，讓人們對模型充滿信心，以推動這些契約在 12 到 18 個月內實現。我認為我們已經開發了這一點。除此之外的任何事情都將是額外的，並且會改善當前的前景。

But I think that we're going to be in good shape, at least for the next 12 to 18 months. If we get a recovery mid next year, and this is what's in the model, then I think it's all improvement from there. So trying to take a fairly conservative look in terms of recovery expectation. I'm not banking on the market going up. I'm going to make sure that we size the business accordingly, the size of the spend for the business that we have. And then as the market picks up, I think we'll be in a much better position because it will be upside from that standpoint.

但我認為我們將保持良好狀態，至少在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內如此。如果我們在明年年中實現復甦，這就是模型中的內容，那麼我認為一切都會從那時起有所改善。因此，試圖對復甦預期採取相當保守的態度。我並不指望市場會上漲。我將確保我們相應地調整業務規模，即我們現有業務的支出規模。然後，隨著市場回暖，我認為我們將處於一個更好的位置，因為從這個角度來看，它將是上行的。

Yes. No, that's really helpful. And as my follow-up and Emeka, on gross margin, I think the mix and sort of the fixed cost absorption makes sense. But at what level would the semiconductor gross margin start to improve a little bit more materially? Because you talked about some fixed cost absorption that at current levels, you're not really able to overcome. So what does the semiconductor business have to be in order to see more step function improvements in gross margin? Because obviously, the mix overall is moving in the right direction, right? But I'm just trying to understand the fixed cost absorption part of it.

是的。不，這真的很有幫助。作為我的後續行動和 Emeka，就毛利率而言，我認為固定成本吸收的組合和排序是有意義的。但半導體毛利率達到什麼水準才會開始出現實質改善呢？因為您談到了一些固定成本吸收，在目前的水平上，您實際上無法克服。那麼，半導體業務必須做到什麼才能看到毛利率的階躍函數改善呢？因為顯然，整體組合正在朝著正確的方向發展，對吧？但我只是想了解其中的固定成本吸收部分。

So Tore, first of all, thank you for your kind words. I've really enjoyed working with you and all the sell-side analysts all over through the years, and hopefully, our paths are going to cross somewhere else in the future.

托雷，首先感謝您的客氣話。這些年來，我真的很高興與您和所有賣方分析師一起工作，希望我們的道路在未來能夠在其他地方交叉。

With regards to your question, I think -- I mean we would expect that to see the gross margin for the semiconductor business as we see maybe a change in some of the mix, an increase in the 10-gig PON, which is a pretty high gross margin for us. Seeing some recoveries in the LoRa business from the current levels, the LoRa business is suffering a little bit from high levels of inventory in the channel at this point. As we continue to see a mix of the ITA, industrial and automotive revenues for our advanced protection system. So it's a combination of the mix of revenues in addition to higher levels of revenues for the semiconductor business.

關於你的問題，我認為——我的意思是，我們預計半導體業務的毛利率會出現變化，因為我們可能會看到某些組合的變化，10G PON 的增加，這是一個相當大的增長。我們的毛利率很高。從目前的水平來看，LoRa 業務有所恢復，但目前 LoRa 業務正因渠道中的高庫存水平而受到一些影響。我們繼續看到我們的先進保護系統的 ITA、工業和汽車收入混合在一起。因此，這是除了半導體業務更高水平的收入之外的收入組合的結合。

But I think, like Paul said, we are seeing definitely very good signs that the semiconductor business looks like it is poised to start going back up. So I would expect that as we go forward to start seeing some higher levels of gross margin as well.

但我認為，正如保羅所說，我們確實看到了非常好的跡象，表明半導體業務似乎準備開始回升。因此，我預計隨著我們的前進，毛利率也會開始上升。

Got it. So it sounds like for at least the October quarter, there will be a higher sort of revenue mix in consumer, especially with some of your smartphone design wins and things like that. But then beyond that, you can start to see PON and LoRa and other contributions.

知道了。因此，聽起來至少在十月季度，消費者的收入組合將會更高，特別是在您的一些智慧型手機設計勝利以及類似的事情之後。但除此之外，您還可以開始看到 PON 和 LoRa 以及其他貢獻。

Yes, exactly. I think you got that right. And then just with overall higher levels of revenues are actually driving the need for more inventory deals and stuff now will start driving absorptions higher. So -- and consequently, as a result, the gross margins will start to tick up again.

是的，完全正確。我認為你說得對。然後，隨著整體收入水準的提高，實際上推動了對更多庫存交易的需求，而現在的產品將開始推動吸收率的提高。因此，毛利率將開始再次上升。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Searle with ROTH MKM.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Searle 和 ROTH MKM 的對話。

Paul, congrats on your first quarter, a nice job on the cost front. And Emeka, want to wish you all the best in your future endeavors. It's always been a pleasure working with you.

保羅，恭喜你的第一季度，在成本方面做得很好。 Emeka 祝福您在未來的事業中一切順利。與您合作一直很愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maybe to just dive in on the compliance front, quickly, Paul and Emeka. You've done a lot on the cost side of the equation. We're taking a step down on the top line. Can you get back into compliance without a major recovery on the top line?

保羅和艾梅卡，也許只是快速地投入合規。您在成本方面做了很多工作。我們正在降低營收。您能否在營收沒有大幅恢復的情況下恢復合規？

Are there some other -- it sounds like there's some other additional OpEx levers to pull and/or an ability to get some flexibility on the debt covenant. So I'd kind of like to understand the thought process on the strategy beyond the initial quarter as we get into fiscal '25.

還有其他的嗎——聽起來還有其他一些額外的營運支出槓桿可以拉動和/或在債務契約上獲得一定靈活性的能力。因此，當我們進入 25 財年時，我想了解第一季之後的策略思考過程。

So I think the answer to that, Scott, is yes, for the next 12 to 18 months. And obviously, as that leverage ratio cap continues to step down, we'll need some recovery in the business beyond 1.5 years or so into FY '26.

因此，斯科特，我認為答案是肯定的，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內。顯然，隨著槓桿率上限繼續降低，我們需要在 26 財年約 1.5 年的時間內實現業務復甦。

But the way I kind of look at it as we took immediate actions for compliance for the covenants, buying ourselves some buffer in that regard, and then we need to continue to optimize cash generation in order to service the debt. And then it becomes about principal pay down, so this is really kind of a 2-year haul. But in the short term, I don't see an issue with covenant compliance. I think we've got enough tools in the tool bag to make sure that, that continues to happen.

但我的看法是，我們立即採取行動遵守契約，為自己購買一些緩衝，然後我們需要繼續優化現金產生以償還債務。然後就變成了本金還款，所以這實際上是兩年的拖欠。但從短期來看，我認為遵守契約不存在問題。我認為我們的工具包裡有足夠的工具來確保這種情況繼續發生。

We do need some recovery if we're going to hold on to this debt over the long term and continue to service it and pay it down in principal through its term. But I think longer out, with the market recovery, we've got a little bit more options under our belt in terms of divestiture and the like, and perhaps refinancing as well. It's going to be -- this is going to be a bit more of a longer story. But in the short term, I think we've secured ourselves 12 to 18 months.

如果我們要長期持有這筆債務並繼續償還債務並在期限內償還本金，我們確實需要一些復甦。但我認為，從長遠來看，隨著市場復甦，我們在資產剝離等方面有更多的選擇，也許還有再融資。這將是一個更長的故事。但從短期來看，我認為我們已經確保了 12 到 18 個月的時間。

Perfect. Very helpful. And if I could, I guess, kind of a multi-part question following up on some earlier questions. From a revenue standpoint, a couple of the product lines that are seeing some headwinds, routers were down in the current quarter. Modules are looking to just take that step down and normalize from an inventory standpoint. I'm wondering on both fronts there, when do you see routers starting to recover? Are you seeing that supply-demand balance come back in?

完美的。非常有幫助。我想，如果可以的話，這是一個由多個部分組成的問題，是對一些早期問題的後續答案。從收入的角度來看，一些遇到一些阻力的產品線，路由器在本季出現了下滑。各模組希望採取這項措施，從庫存的角度正常化。我想知道在這兩個方面，您什麼時候看到路由器開始恢復？您是否看到供需平衡恢復？

And then with modules, it sounds like you've got some other potential upside opportunities with Chinese OEMs not being welcomed in the U.S. and starting to see that in your order book now. So I'm kind of wondering what you're factoring in on that front.

然後，在模組方面，聽起來您還有其他一些潛在的上升機會，因為中國原始設備製造商在美國不受歡迎，現在開始在您的訂單中看到這一點。所以我有點想知道你在這方面考慮了什麼因素。

And lastly, I think LoRa took a big step down in the quarter. I'm wondering how long you see it at these levels before starting to recover?

最後，我認為 LoRa 在本季度邁出了一大步。我想知道在開始恢復之前您會在這些水平上觀察多長時間？

And then kind of putting them all together, what is the normalized level of sales that we should be thinking about 12 months from now? The combined companies if we go back 12 months ago was around $400 million, obviously below that, obviously, not a normalized environment. But what's kind of the number that we should be thinking about as the world starts to recover?

然後將它們放在一起，我們應該考慮從現在起 12 個月後的正常銷售水平是多少？如果我們回到 12 個月前，合併後的公司價值約為 4 億美元，顯然低於這個數字，顯然這不是一個正常化的環境。但當世界開始復甦時，我們應該考慮什麼樣的數字呢？

So Scott, I just have to ask a clarification question. So were you saying routers, modules and LoRa together, those revenue levels? Or are you talking about the whole?

所以斯科特，我只需要問一個澄清問題。那麼您是說路由器、模組和 LoRa 一起，這些收入水平嗎？還是你說的是整體？

The whole. The whole.

整體。整體。

Okay. All right. So I guess I don't have an answer for you on the whole quite yet. But I would say, if I looked at demand and try to anticipate a moderate recovery, let's say, back to normal levels, I can kind of -- it's pretty easy to go look over the COVID cycle, see the rush of demand and then try to draw a line through that. I think we've got some businesses that have historically grown at specific CAGRs over the last decade, so it's pretty easy to draw a line through those and say, this is what it should be independent of cycles.

好的。好的。所以我想我還沒有給你一個整體的答案。但我想說，如果我專注於需求並嘗試預測溫和復甦，比如說回到正常水平，我可以輕鬆地審視新冠病毒週期，看到需求的激增，然後嘗試在其中畫一條線。我認為我們有一些企業在過去十年中以特定的複合年增長率成長，因此很容易在這些企業中劃出一條線，並說，這應該是獨立於週期的。

But I'd say we're still probably north of $1 billion. I'm attempting to put a number on it. But I'm going to admit that I haven't exhaustively looked at every single product line, but that's kind of where I would couch it for the time being on a combined basis.

但我想說我們可能仍超過 10 億美元。我正試著在上面加上一個數字。但我承認我並沒有詳盡地研究每一條產品線，但這就是我暫時將其綜合起來的地方。

In terms of routers, when does it recover? I think that this is temporary. Routers did not see that big of a blip, a big of a ramp-up during the COVID cycle. There was a little bit of increased demand during the frothy buying cycle, but not extreme, not like we saw with modules.

就路由器而言，什麼時候恢復？我認為這是暫時的。在新冠疫情期間，路由器並沒有出現那麼大的波動或大幅成長。在泡棉購買週期中，需求略有增加，但並不極端，不像我們在模組中看到的那樣。

Modules is a little bit more problematic because you had some 3G cutovers and you had a bit of a panic that had ensued in terms of modules. And so there was a lot of double ordering out there. And that's why we have a bit more of an inventory pile up. So modules is going to take us a little bit longer to work through.

模組的問題有點多，因為您進行了一些 3G 切換，並且在模組方面隨之而來的是一些恐慌。因此，存在大量重複訂購的情況。這就是為什麼我們的庫存堆積較多。因此模組將花費我們更長的時間來完成。

Having said that, I still like the fact that we've got a couple hundred million, let's say, over a couple of hundred million pipeline increase this quarter due to just the legislative discussions that are going on in terms of who goes on the entity exclusion list. So to me, that's a nice opportunity. It really does equal market share gain, and it could result in a significant drawdown of inventory in North America and EMEA as we gain market share.

話雖如此，我仍然喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們本季度增加了數億美元，比方說，由於正在進行的實體實體的立法討論，因此增加了數億美元。所以對我來說，這是一個很好的機會。它確實等於市場份額的成長，並且隨著我們獲得市場份額，它可能會導致北美和歐洲、中東和非洲的庫存大幅減少。

So that's kind of an optimistic view of the world. We're going to attempt to go out there and capture those sockets as best we can. And then I think routers in terms of those fire safety applications, we've rolled out a couple of new platforms, new products. The uptake is pretty good.

所以這是一種樂觀的世界觀。我們將嘗試盡可能去那裡捕獲這些套接字。然後我認為路由器在消防安全應用方面，我們推出了一些新平台、新產品。吸收率相當不錯。

But there was a lot of buying by the channel during last year and up until the close of the acquisition. So I'd say that you're going to see a slow drawdown, although POS never really had a huge significant uptick, and it's not really falling off nearly as quickly as the rest.

但從去年到收購結束，該通路進行了大量購買。所以我想說，你會看到緩慢的下降，儘管 POS 從未真正出現過巨大的顯著上升，而且它的下降速度也不像其他行業那麼快。

I think I covered all your questions. There was a lot in there, but hopefully, I got it.

我想我已經涵蓋了你所有的問題。裡面有很多東西，但希望我能明白。

Our next question comes from Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的克里斯多福羅蘭。

Thanks, Emeka, for all the conversations over the years, and welcome, Paul.

感謝埃梅卡多年來所有的對話，歡迎保羅。

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

Great. I guess maybe following on, on kind of Quinn and Harsh's line of questioning here. In terms of the Sierra business, would you kind of put it in the combined $85 million range for next quarter?

偉大的。我想也許會繼續奎因和哈什的提問。就 Sierra 業務而言，您認為下季的總收入將達到 8,500 萬美元嗎？

And I did notice there was some 3Q seasonality for that business traditionally before you guys owned it. I was wondering if that was coming into play here, and that could help us into the January quarter for you guys. But beyond that, Signal Integrity and Protection and Sensing, we should think about both of those being up in October as well?

我確實注意到，在你們擁有該業務之前，傳統上該業務在第三季度存在一些季節性。我想知道這是否在這裡發揮作用，這可以幫助我們進入一月季度。但除此之外，訊號完整性、保護和感測，我們還應該考慮這兩個方面在 10 月的表現嗎？

Yes, I think that's correct. When you say the Sierra business, we kind of -- we're breaking them out in terms of connectivity. I just want to be really clear. Connectivity is still pretty strong. That's a $100 million business that just clips along and we'll slowly continue to gain market share. Good gross margin business as well that came with the Sierra Wireless acquisition, but that connectivity business is pretty solid, independent of the hardware revenue that has fallen off.

是的，我認為這是正確的。當你提到 Sierra 業務時，我們在連結方面打破了它們。我只想說清楚。連接性還是很強的。這是一項價值 1 億美元的業務，隨著時間的推移，我們將慢慢繼續獲得市場份額。收購 Sierra Wireless 帶來的毛利率業務也不錯，但連接業務相當穩固，不受硬體收入下降的影響。

That $85 million might be a little bit light, but it will see a pullback and then I would expect routers to kind of rebound going forward. And then modules, depending on how well we do with the current opportunity in front of us, we can maybe see a little bit of upside out over the next couple of quarters as things get qual-ed in.

這 8500 萬美元可能有點少，但它會出現回調，然後我預計路由器會在未來反彈。然後是模組，取決於我們如何利用當前擺在我們面前的機會，隨著事情的進展，我們可能會在接下來的幾個季度看到一些積極的一面。

Typically, there is a certification cycle that's associated with designing an embedded module. So there is an activity or a time associated with that, but it shouldn't go too terribly wrong. I typically would handicap it around 60 to 90 days or so.

通常，有一個與設計嵌入式模組相關的認證週期。因此，有一個與之相關的活動或時間，但它不應該出現太嚴重的錯誤。我通常會在 60 到 90 天左右的時間內限制它。

Excellent. And, Paul, when do you think we could get a new long-term model for the company overall? And what would be kind of a platform for doing that? Would you do that on a quarterly call? Would you put an Analyst Day together? And yes, the time frame on any update would be great as well.

出色的。保羅，你認為我們什麼時候可以為公司整體制定一個新的長期模式？什麼樣的平台可以做到這一點？您會在季度電話會議上這樣做嗎？您會舉辦分析師日嗎？是的，任何更新的時間框架也很好。

Yes. That's a great question. Certainly, it would be very reasonable to have that in the 12-month time frame. And perhaps before, but I think we would target a Analyst Day, 12 to 18 months out and just kind of give a broad overview of an invigorated strategy, if not new strategy at that point and then we'd lay out the long-term targets at that point as well.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。當然，在12個月的時間範圍內做到這一點是非常合理的。也許之前，但我認為我們會在 12 到 18 個月後舉行分析師日，對充滿活力的戰略（如果當時沒有新戰略）進行廣泛概述，然後我們會制定長期戰略也以此為目標。

And maybe just one last one. You guys typically give turns needed in the -- to make the guide. That would be great.

也許只是最後一件。你們通常會輪流製作指南。那太好了。

And then lastly, would we ever expect any LoRa metrics again? Or is that a thing of the past?

最後，我們還會期待任何 LoRa 指標嗎？還是那已經是過去的事了？

The turns metric?

匝數度量？

I think that was about 50% for the quarter.

我認為該季度的比例約為 50%。

Yes. The turns needed in the quarter is just over 50%. I'll be honest, I'm not a huge fan of giving turns because it's not indicative of very quickly ramping revenue. And so it can cause you to draw some misconceptions or wrong conclusions about the directionality of the business. But at this point, we're approximately 50% turns.

是的。本季所需的周轉率剛超過 50%。老實說，我不太喜歡輪流，因為這並不意味著收入會很快增加。因此，它可能會導致您對業務的方向性得出一些誤解或錯誤的結論。但此時，我們已經完成了大約 50% 的轉彎。

Great. And LoRa metrics?

偉大的。 LoRa 指標呢？

So Chris, the 50% was at the beginning of the quarter, not now.

所以克里斯，50% 是在季度初，而不是現在。

Yes, not at this -- Not yet, sorry, at the beginning of the quarter.

是的，不是現在——抱歉，還沒有，是在本季初。

Yes. Understood. And LoRa?

是的。明白了。還有洛拉？

I'm sorry, what was your question on LoRa?

抱歉，您對 LoRa 的問題是什麼？

You used to give a ton of LoRa metrics and I think that stopped since the combination of Sierra. You used to give LoRa-related revenue, revenue guidance, operators, gateways, pipeline lead, a ton of information. Is that ever going to come back?

您曾經提供了大量的 LoRa 指標，我認為自從 Sierra 合併以來，這種情況就停止了。您曾經提供與 LoRa 相關的收入、收入指導、運營商、網關、管道領導等大量資訊。那會回來嗎？

I don't -- so I don't anticipate it coming back by itself. I think I'm happy to give you that LoRa is approximately $100 million business every year. We're going to be shifting the focus to more of an end node in connected node focus from -- and then also what pieces are necessary in order to enable that use and rollout of private networks.

我不知道——所以我預計它不會自行回來。我想我很高興告訴您 LoRa 每年的業務量約為 1 億美元。我們將把重點轉移到連接節點中的更多終端節點上，然後還要考慮哪些部分是必要的，以便能夠使用和推出專用網路。

I think adoption LoRa at the last mile of IoT edge, some people don't like the label last mile, but let's call it the fringe. It definitely has a value proposition there. It definitely makes sense. The totality of what has been called LoRa, inclusive in that has been infrastructure. It's been helium. It's been a number of things that at this point, I just don't believe are viable and it's not something that I want to [tout]. So if you could give me a couple of quarters to better define what that lower rollout strategy is going to be, or that wireless strategy is going to be, we'll be happy to talk to it in future quarters.

我認為在物聯網邊緣的最後一英里採用LoRa，有些人不喜歡最後一英里這個標籤，但我們稱之為邊緣。它絕對有一個價值主張。這絕對是有道理的。 LoRa 的整體，包括基礎設施。原來是氦氣啊在這一點上，我只是不相信有很多事情是可行的，而且這也不是我想要[吹捧]的事情。因此，如果您能給我幾個季度的時間來更好地定義較低的部署策略或無線策略，我們將很樂意在未來幾季進行討論。

Paul, good luck and really appreciate you taking the helm here.

保羅，祝你好運，非常感謝你在這裡掌舵。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝您，先生。

Our next question comes from Cody Acree with The Benchmark Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的 Cody Acree。

Paul, welcome. And Emeka, thank you for all the help over the years. It's been very much appreciated. Paul, if you could just take a step back at with the Sierra Wireless acquisition and can you just give us your high-level view of the strategic fit of the companies as you see them today?

保羅，歡迎。還有 Emeka，感謝您多年來的所有幫助。非常感謝。 Paul，如果您能退後一步討論對 Sierra Wireless 的收購，您能否向我們介紹您對這些公司的戰略契合度的高層次看法，就像您今天所看到的那樣？

Yes. Thank you, Cody. I'm smiling because you asked a difficult question to answer, but I'll give it my best. So at this point, I will say the investment thesis for the acquisition still holds true today. If we look at it and we say, okay, we have a unique radio technology in LoRa. And I would further refine that to say a sub-gigahertz low-power, low-bandwidth far-reaching protocol, where can that best be used and how do we create a platform or an ecosystem that makes it very easy to adopt and roll out? That is the operative question.

是的。謝謝你，科迪。我微笑是因為你問了一個很難回答的問題，但我會盡力回答。因此，在這一點上，我想說收購的投資論點今天仍然適用。如果我們看到它並說，好吧，我們在 LoRa 中擁有獨特的無線電技術。我想進一步細化這一點，說一個亞千兆赫茲低功耗、低頻寬影響深遠的協議，它可以最好地用在哪裡，我們如何創建一個平台或生態系統，使其非常容易採用和推出？這就是操作問題。

And so if you look at what would be required in that implementation, that needs of use implementation, you would obviously need lower chips on connected endpoints, of which we do have and sell today. You would need configuration software. You would need device management system software. You would need traffic routing software that would sit on a gateway or a router through some other backhaul cellular or otherwise, so from that standpoint, you can connect those dots.

因此，如果您看看該實現中需要什麼，即使用實現的需求，您顯然需要在連接的端點上使用較低的晶片，而我們今天已經擁有並出售這些晶片。您需要設定軟體。您需要設備管理系統軟體。您需要透過其他回程蜂窩網路或其他方式位於網關或路由器上的流量路由軟體，因此從這個角度來看，您可以連接這些點。

You would also need a cloud platform to enable that configuration. You'd need a Snap or Kubernetes on a router, a gateway sitting on the edge and then that would feed into a cloud and then you would -- that would allow you to provide API hooks into customer software or provide individual insights for those connected devices on that edge.

您還需要一個雲端平台來啟用該配置。你需要在路由器上安裝 Snap 或 Kubernetes，在邊緣設定一個網關，然後將其饋送到雲端中，然後你就可以為客戶軟體提供 API 掛鉤，或者為連接的用戶提供單獨的見解該邊緣的設備。

So all those components exist in the acquisition. Now the question was -- would naturally be is the acquisition necessary to fulfill that vision? And the answer to that is no, you couldn't go off and develop it on your own, but certainly helps to have all these pieces together. So now that we have those pieces, how do we best pull those pieces together for an ease-of-use play in IoT? And that is something that we're going to have to think really hard about.

因此，所有這些組成部分都存在於收購中。現在的問題是──收購是否有必要實現這個願景？答案是否定的，您無法自行開發它，但將所有這些部分整合在一起肯定會有所幫助。現在我們已經有了這些部分，我們如何最好地將這些部分組合在一起，以便在物聯網中輕鬆使用？這是我們必須認真思考的事情。

It's not enough to have the individual pieces. It's the orchestration or the coordination between those pieces and the end market in order to make that a reality. So we're going to be spending some time on that vision, reimagine what it takes to get there, independent of whether or not we need assets, strategic assets or not, and we'll work on an execution plan.

僅僅擁有單獨的部分是不夠的。為了使這一目標成為現實，需要對這些部分和終端市場進行編排或協調。因此，我們將花一些時間實現這一願景，重新構想實現這一目標所需的條件，無論我們是否需要資產、策略資產，並且我們將製定執行計劃。

So I've got a few ideas on that. We've got some of our bright minds working on that as well, and we'll be rolling that out over the next couple of quarters.

所以我對此有一些想法。我們也有一些聰明的頭腦正在研究這個問題，我們將在接下來的幾個季度內推出它。

Do you think, Paul, that there is a strategic application fit with your customer base that is obvious that may have not been as with the initial acquisition?

保羅，您是否認為有一個策略性應用程式適合您的客戶群，但顯然可能與最初的收購不同？

I do. There's -- it really kind of comes down to use case. We say application, but I'd say it comes down to use case. We have one particular customer -- there's 2 RFPs out there that are requesting the use of LoRa and they like the aspects of LoRa. It's in a bit of a more complicated program in terms of installation and rollout that would include both cellular modules and routers and software. And so there is a strategic application or strategic fit with certain customer use cases.

我願意。這確實可以歸結為用例。我們說應用程序，但我想說這歸結為用例。我們有一個特定的客戶——有 2 個 RFP 請求使用 LoRa，他們喜歡 LoRa 的各個方面。就安裝和部署而言，它是一個更複雜的程序，其中包括蜂窩模組、路由器和軟體。因此，存在與某些客戶用例的策略應用或策略契合。

And I can give you one example. We've got a customer that was doing an installation for a field of tanks, and they want to be able to monitor each tank. Rather than putting a cellular router at each tank connected to devices that are pulling in telemetry, pressure temperature, capacity and the depth of whatever those fluids are, they would rather have one cellular router and that to have -- be connected to a bunch of sensors across the field that would represent the entire tank field.

我可以舉一個例子。我們有一位客戶正在對一個儲罐進行安裝，他們希望能夠監控每個儲罐。他們寧願在每個儲罐上安裝一個蜂窩路由器，連接到遙測、壓力溫度、容量和這些液體的深度的設備，而是將一個蜂窩路由器連接到一堆代表整個罐區的整個區域的傳感器。

And it would be a much -- a lower cost of installation, lower CapEx requirement, and it would make that installation fairly easy in terms of configuring devices that are pretty belaborous right now. So if you look at it, yes, it does fit really nicely with where the market wants to go, but there are some pieces missing in terms of making it a reality, and that's what we have to focus on.

這將大大降低安裝成本，降低資本支出要求，並且就配置目前相當繁瑣的設備而言，這將使安裝變得相當容易。因此，如果你看一下它，是的，它確實非常適合市場的發展方向，但在使其成為現實方面還缺少一些部分，這就是我們必須關注的。

Our next question comes from Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Harsh Kumar 和 Piper Sandler。

Yes. Paul, the example you just described actually fits perfectly for smart meters. And I was curious if you've received any interest from any kind of utility companies for similar deployments because I think it would simplify smart meter installations in small cities extremely well.

是的。保羅，你剛才描述的例子其實非常適合智慧電錶。我很好奇是否有任何類型的公用事業公司對類似部署感興趣，因為我認為這將極大簡化小城市的智慧電錶安裝。

It would also lower the cost and maintenance of those smart meters. So if you just look at power consumption, LPWA, as opposed to LoRa. If you just look at bandwidth requirements, and you could argue that bandwidth costs are fairly low on LPWA, but they're essentially free when you go to LoRa. So I do think at -- I'm saying private networks, but that doesn't mean that it can't be a rather large private network that's rolled out by utility or municipality as well, so I think LoRa is a perfect fit in those areas.

它還將降低這些智慧電錶的成本和維護成本。因此，如果只看功耗，LPWA 與 LoRa 不同。如果您只看頻寬要求，您可能會說 LPWA 的頻寬成本相當低，但當您使用 LoRa 時，它們基本上是免費的。所以我確實認為——我說的是私人網絡，但這並不意味著它不能是一個由公用事業或市政當局推出的相當大的私有網絡，所以我認為 LoRa 非常適合那些地區。

And I guess, from our standpoint, we would be able to support both applications. There might be some applications where they need an LPWA solution. We're happy to accommodate those, but we can also accommodate LoRa-based solution as well.

我想，從我們的角度來看，我們將能夠支援這兩種應用程式。某些應用可能需要 LPWA 解決方案。我們很樂意容納這些，但我們也可以容納基於 LoRa 的解決方案。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Paul Pickle for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想請保羅·皮克爾 (Paul Pickle) 發表結束評論。

All right. Well, thank you guys for joining us today. Thank you for taking it easy on me for my first time around and look forward to talking to you in the future. Thank you very much.

好的。好的，謝謝你們今天加入我們。感謝您第一次對我如此寬容，並期待將來與您交談。非常感謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。