SM Energy Co (SM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to SM Energy's first-quarter 2025 financial and operating results Q&A session.

    大家好,歡迎參加 SM Energy 2025 年第一季財務與經營業績問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Lytle, Senior Vice President in Finance.

    現在我很高興介紹您的主持人,財務高級副總裁 Pat Lytle。

  • Thank you. You may begin.

    謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Patrick Lytle - Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, Controller

    Patrick Lytle - Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, Controller

  • Thank you, Chamali. Good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,Chamali。大家早安。

  • In today's call, we may reference the earnings release, IR presentation, or prepared remarks, all of which are posted to our website.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會參考收益報告、投資者關係簡報或準備好的評論,所有這些都發佈在我們的網站上。

  • Thank you for joining us to answer your questions today.

    感謝您今天加入我們並回答您的問題。

  • On the call this morning we have our President and CEO, Herb Vogel; COO, Beth McDonald; and CFO, Wade Pursell.

    今天早上的電話會議由我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Herb Vogel 主持;首席營運官,貝絲·麥克唐納 (Beth McDonald);和首席財務官韋德·珀塞爾 (Wade Pursell)。

  • Before we get started, I need to remind you that our discussion today may include forward-looking statements and discussion of non-GAAP measures. I direct you to the accompanying slide deck and earnings release and risk factors section of our most recently filed 10-K which describe risks associated with forward-looking statements that could cause actual results to differ. Also please see the slide deck appendix and the earnings release for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and discussion of forward-looking and non-GAAP measures. Also our first quarter 10-Q was filed this morning.

    在我們開始之前,我需要提醒您,我們今天的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的討論。我請您參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 文件中附帶的幻燈片和收益報告及風險因素部分,其中描述了與前瞻性陳述相關的可能導致實際結果不同的風險。另請參閱投影片附錄和收益報告,以了解非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的定義和對照,以及前瞻性和非 GAAP 指標的討論。此外,我們第一季的 10-Q 報表也於今天早上提交。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Herb for brief opening commentary.

    接下來,我將把時間交給 Herb 進行簡短的開場評論。

  • Herb?

    草本植物?

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Pat.

    謝謝,帕特。

  • Good morning and thank you for joining us.

    早安,感謝您加入我們。

  • We are really pleased with the performance across the company and particularly pleased with how well the integration has gone and the quality of our Uinta Basin assets. As a reminder, our plan for 2025 delivers 30% increase in oil production, 20% increase in total production, and that's a step change in scale for SM, and we clearly have three top-tier assets.

    我們對整個公司的表現感到非常滿意,尤其對整合的進展以及尤因塔盆地資產的品質感到滿意。提醒一下,我們 2025 年的計劃是將石油產量提高 30%,將總產量提高 20%,這對 SM 來說是一個規模上的重大變化,而且我們顯然擁有三項頂級資產。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back over to Chamali to take your questions.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉回給 Chamali 來回答你們的問題。

  • Chamali?

    查馬利?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Tim Rezvan, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

    Tim Rezvan,KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

  • Tim Rezvan - Analyst

    Tim Rezvan - Analyst

  • My first one, I don't know if this is for Herb or Beth, but I'm trying to get an understanding on the shape and the oil skew on 2025 production. First quarter was 53%. You got to a little higher oil cut in the second quarter, but you didn't touch the full year kind of guide for oil.

    我的第一個問題,我不知道這是給 Herb 還是 Beth 的,但我想了解 2025 年產量的形狀和石油偏差。第一季為53%。第二季的石油減產幅度略有提高,但並未觸及全年的石油指引水準。

  • So I was curious if you -- are there timing issues with that Uinta wells coming online that we should be aware of or is this just simply you not touching most annual guidance items at this point? Just trying to understand how the year is going to shake out.

    所以我很好奇——我們是否應該注意 Uinta 油井上線的時間問題,或者這只是您目前沒有觸及大多數年度指導項目?只是想了解這一年將會如何發展。

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Tim, I'll start, but I think Beth can dig into that one a little bit more. But yeah, we didn't see material changes to change anything for the full year plan, but she can elaborate a little bit on the percentage improvement in oil cut from 1Q to 2Q and what that means later in the year.

    是的。提姆,我先開始,但我認為貝絲可以更深入地探討這一點。但是,是的,我們沒有看到對全年計劃有任何實質性的改變,但她可以稍微詳細說明一下從第一季度到第二季度石油減產的百分比改善情況,以及這對今年晚些時候意味著什麼。

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. And so what I would say is as you look at the production rates and as we said, the whole year, we go from 1Q to 2Q increasing modestly. And then you'll see a major increase in the third quarter. And as far oil mix, we have a bit more ua Uinta wells coming on, but it's important to kind of take a step back and just know that every single quarter that we have variability in that oil mix depending on what wells we bring on.

    是的。所以我想說的是,當你看到生產力時,正如我們所說,全年從第一季到第二季都在小幅成長。然後你會看到第三季出現大幅成長。至於石油組合,我們在尤因塔的油井產量增加,但重要的是要回顧一下,要知道每個季度我們的石油組合都會有所不同,這取決於我們開採的油井。

  • So we have large pads coming on in the Uinta, and so that is driving our oil mix a bit higher. For the year, we would stay within the guidance range that we've already put out there.

    因此,我們在尤因塔擁有大型油田,這將使我們的石油混合物價格略有上漲。今年,我們將保持在已經制定的指導範圍內。

  • Tim Rezvan - Analyst

    Tim Rezvan - Analyst

  • And then my second one, I guess maybe more for Wade on the topic of cash returns. Your path back to 1 times leverage is now a little steeper with oil below 60. But we didn't really see the balance sheet get there around year end.

    然後我的第二個問題,我想可能更多是關於韋德的現金回報主題。當油價低於 60 時,回到 1 倍槓桿的路徑現在會變得更加陡峭。但我們並沒有真正看到年底時資產負債表的出現。

  • So is it safe to assume repurchases are going to be off the table this year until you get there or do you feel compelled to maybe step in and defend the equity with where shares are now?

    那麼,是否可以安全地假設今年不會進行回購,直到您到達那裡為止,或者您是否覺得有必要介入並根據目前的股價捍衛權益?

  • A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Good question, Tim. I think my answer would be very similar to what I would have said a quarter ago that we certainly like the stock price. I mean that has nothing to do with it. We are being disciplined about allocating free cash flow to getting leverage back to that 1 times area.

    是的。問得好,提姆。我想我的回答與我一個季度前所說的非常相似,我們當然喜歡這個股價。我的意思是那與此無關。我們正在嚴格分配自由現金流,以使槓桿率回到 1 倍區域。

  • And yes, prices are lower than they were a quarter ago. But you're right, even at current prices and certainly, if you assume something like 55, we generate a lot of free cash flow, plenty of cash flow to frankly pay off maturities.

    是的,價格比一個季度前低了。但你是對的,即使以當前價格計算,當然,如果你假設是 55,我們也會產生大量的自由現金流,坦白說,有足夠的現金流來償還到期債務。

  • And that leverage metric kind of gets down into that really, really close to 1 times area. So I think you can assume that we are prioritizing debt reduction until we get there. I think that's a good assumption. But I wouldn't take off the table our ability to step in occasionally to support the stock.

    而該槓桿指標實際上已經接近 1 倍。因此我認為你可以假設我們會優先考慮減少債務,直到實現這一目標。我認為這是一個很好的假設。但我不會放棄我們偶爾介入支持股票的能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Oliver Huang, TPH.

    奧利弗·黃,TPH。

  • Oliver Huang - Analyst

    Oliver Huang - Analyst

  • I just wanted to start out in the Uinta. Looking at slide 7 in your deck, the one showing productivity charts by various key regions. I know the Lower Cube is the primary focus for you all today in the Utelem. And I imagine the data set from Enverus that's being cited there likely shows a heavy lean into the Utelem and Butte as the most developed pay zone within that part of the stack.

    我只是想從尤因塔出發。查看您簡報中的第 7 張投影片,其中顯示了各個關鍵區域的生產力圖表。我知道下層立方體是今天 Utelem 中大家關注的重點。我認為,在那裡引用的 Enverus 數據集很可能表明,Utelem 和 Butte 是該部分油層中最發達的產油區。

  • So my question is, what is the expectation for being able to hit the underwritten assumptions for the Lower Cube when you're co-developing with other zones like the Wasatch and the Douglas Creek, which haven't been quite as prolific historically speaking on an oil per foot basis?

    所以我的問題是,當您與 Wasatch 和 Douglas Creek 等其他區域共同開發時,對於能夠達到 Lower Cube 的承保假設的期望是什麼?從歷史上看,這些區域的每英尺石油產量並不那麼高。

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • So I would say, Oliver, thank you for the question and 90% of our program is focused on the Lower Cube, and we have a majority of those going into the Utelem Butte and the Wasatch. And some in the Castle Peak, right?

    所以我想說,奧利弗,謝謝你的提問,我們 90% 的項目都集中在下立方體上,其中大部分項目都進入了尤特勒姆比特和瓦薩奇山脈。還有一些在青山,對吧?

  • So 90%, Lower Cube, proving up the value there. We're highly confident in the forecasts that we have coming out of those zones, very competitive. The rest 10% is focused on the Upper Cube. And as you saw from Enverus, strong results there is in Douglas Creek and we'll continue to test other intervals within the section.

    因此,90%(較低的立方體)證明了那裡的價值。我們對這些區域的預測非常有信心,競爭非常激烈。其餘 10% 則集中於上層立方體。正如您從 Enverus 看到的那樣,道格拉斯溪 (Douglas Creek) 的結果非常好,我們將繼續測試該區域內的其他間隔。

  • Tim Rezvan - Analyst

    Tim Rezvan - Analyst

  • And maybe for a follow up just on an LOE. I know you all called out a few items impacting the corporate LOE guide for this year. Maybe a greater mix of horizontal wells and the Uinta should help over time in addition to getting some of the costs associated with getting facilities and whatnot up to SM spec.

    也許只是為了跟進 LOE。我知道你們都指出了影響今年企業 LOE 指南的幾項內容。也許隨著時間的推移,水平井和 Uinta 的更多組合應該會有所幫助,此外還可以降低與獲得設施等符合 SM 規格相關的一些成本。

  • So question is, as we think through the uplifted cost in this year's program on a corporate basis, should we view this as more one time in nature type of impact or there's some of these costs that are going to be much more sticky beyond this year, if you could walk through that.

    所以問題是,當我們從公司角度考慮今年計劃中增加的成本時,我們是否應該將其視為一次性影響,或者其中一些成本在今年之後會變得更加棘手,請您詳細說明一下。

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, I'll take that, Oliver.

    是的,我接受,奧利佛。

  • So we see the use of the fuel gas and our change in the way that we record the cost to continue moving forward. We use the fuel gas within our operations. And so we see that going forward. And that's about a third of that increase.

    因此,我們看到了燃氣的使用以及我們記錄成本方式的改變,並將繼續向前發展。我們在營運中使用燃氣。我們認為這一趨勢將會持續發展。這大約佔增幅的三分之一。

  • The workover activity was moved forward a little bit. And we have an increase in water production that came from offset activity. Some of that may continue, but we've included all of that in our adjusted full year guidance.

    修井作業稍微提早了一些。由於抵消活動,我們的水產量增加。其中一些可能會繼續,但我們已將所有這些納入調整後的全年指導中。

  • A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And just to remind you, the first item has revenue offsetting it. So the accounting.

    需要提醒您的是,第一項有收入可以抵銷。所以會計。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Fuphan], Roth Capital.

    [Fuphan],羅斯資本。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • So I saw that like you dropped two rigs in the first quarter and you also said eventually, the total rigs will be six. So I was wondering if you could be more specific about timelines when to drop one more rig.

    所以我看到你在第一季放棄了兩台鑽孔機,你還說最終鑽機總數將達到六台。所以我想知道您是否可以更具體地說明何時放棄另一個鑽孔機的時間表。

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We are really not giving any guidance on what our plans are for specific rigs at this time. So you can just say we'll drop six rigs when it makes sense based on the program as we've laid it out. And really what matters is the turning lines in terms of translating things to production.

    目前我們確實沒有給出有關特定鑽機計劃的任何指導。因此,您可以說,根據我們制定的計劃,當情況合理時,我們將放棄六個鑽孔機。真正重要的是將事物轉化為生產時的轉捩點。

  • And that's really what -- we're still sticking to our TIL plan for the year. So no change on that point.

    這就是事實——我們仍然堅持今年的 TIL 計劃。因此這一點沒有變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Furrow, Pickering Energy Partners.

    邁克爾·弗羅 (Michael Furrow),Pickering Energy Partners 的負責人。

  • Michael Furrow - Analyst

    Michael Furrow - Analyst

  • Last quarter, Herb, when I asked about capital allocation between your assets, you mentioned that returns were really comparable across the three areas. But if prices moved, that the company would have the ability to kind of flex between regions.

    赫伯,上個季度,當我問到你們資產之間的資本配置時,你提到這三個領域的報酬率其實是相當的。但如果價格變動,該公司將有能力在不同地區之間靈活調整。

  • And at that time, prices were 74. Today, we're looking at sub 60 with gas prices relatively flat. So my question is have the returns between regions changed? And if so, should we expect sort of a higher allocation of capital activity towards South Texas versus the previous update?

    當時的價格是 74。今天,我們看到汽油價格低於 60,且相對穩定。所以我的問題是各地區之間的報酬率是否改變了?如果是這樣,我們是否應該預期與先前的更新相比,南德克薩斯州的資本活動分配會更高?

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. That's a great question, Michael. And it's really difficult to change a program that quickly. The commodity markets work on intraday timelines. And our plans work on timelines quite different from that. So with the program we've laid out, it looks quite good at strip for the year and achieving our objectives for the year.

    是的。邁克爾,這個問題問得真好。而如此迅速地改變一個程序確實很困難。商品市場依照日內時間線運作。我們的計劃時間表與此截然不同。因此,根據我們制定的計劃,今年的脫衣舞表演看起來相當不錯,並且能夠實現我們今年的目標。

  • Realistically, if prices for oil were to drop below $50 per barrel, you'd expect most companies to really revisit their programs. And we're kind of in that situation of looking. We're really comfortable above $55 with the program we have that delivers everything we want.

    實際上,如果油價跌至每桶 50 美元以下,大多數公司都會重新審視其計劃。我們正處於這種觀察的境地。對於能夠提供我們想要的一切的計劃,我們確實願意支付 55 美元以上的費用。

  • Pullbacks in activity take quite a bit of thought and are tied to our procurement contracts. I don't know if that answers the question for you. But we don't see a change at this time at all. It would be -- need to be a more dramatic change in commodity prices for us to consider doing something different, but we do have plans made as for contingency on what we do later in the year were something to change.

    活動的撤回需要經過深思熟慮,並且與我們的採購合約息息相關。我不知道這是否能解答你的疑問。但目前我們根本沒有看到任何改變。只有當大宗商品價格發生更劇烈的變化時,我們才會考慮採取不同的措施,但我們確實已經制定了應急計劃,以應對今年晚些時候可能出現的變化。

  • Michael Furrow - Analyst

    Michael Furrow - Analyst

  • No, that answers my question. That's understood. It's not so easy to just drop a rig and pick one up as quickly as we'd like. So for my follow up, I just want to ask a quick question on the Uinta. Now that the company's had more time to kind of look into the acquire assets, how are they looking versus the original expectations and is there anything that the company is learning that would alter the drilling or completion designs that you guys get to have in 2026 versus the prior operators designs?

    不,這回答了我的問題。明白了。像我們期望的那樣快速放下鑽機並撿起鑽機並不是一件容易的事。因此,為了後續問題,我只想問一個關於 Uinta 的簡單問題。現在公司有更多的時間來研究收購資產,它們與最初的預期相比有何不同?公司是否了解到任何可以改變你們在 2026 年進行的鑽井或完井設計(與先前的營運商設計相比)的資訊?

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I will just say, Michael, I'm really pleased with the assets. It's definitely exceeded our expectations. And we're really pleased with the XCL team and what they did setting us up with quite a bit of investment in infrastructure that we're really getting the benefits of now.

    是的。我只想說,邁克爾,我對這些資產非常滿意。這絕對超出了我們的預期。我們對 XCL 團隊感到非常滿意,他們為我們在基礎設施方面進行了大量投資,現在我們確實從中受益。

  • But I'll turn it over to Beth because she can dig into the details more about specifically what we like so much.

    但我會把它交給貝絲,因為她可以更詳細地了解我們到底喜歡什麼。

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. I would say just to start and kind of piggyback off of what Herb said, the innovation of our drilling completion and operations team has really been phenomenal. And we continue to just beat a lot of the records that we set previously.

    是的。我想說,首先,並順著赫伯所說的話,我們的鑽井完井和營運團隊的創新確實是驚人的。我們繼續打破之前創下的許多記錄。

  • And so we're just overjoyed with the fact that we're able to drive capital efficiency there even more than we thought going into it. Now as far as the synergies and the great things that SM brings to this asset, it's really associated with the geoscience and reservoir engineering teams that continue to look at the well performance.

    因此,我們非常高興我們能夠提高資本效率,甚至超越我們的預期。現在就 SM 為這項資產帶來的協同效應和巨大影響而言,它實際上與持續關注油井性能的地球科學和油藏工程團隊息息相關。

  • And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we are are not popping or turning in line the new SM design pad until 2026. And so all of the information that we're gaining through 2025, we're putting into that design to make it optimal and create the highest returns and free cash flow.

    正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我們要到 2026 年才會推出或改換新的 SM 設計平台。因此,我們將把 2025 年獲得的所有資訊投入到該設計中,以使其達到最佳狀態並創造最高的回報和自由現金流。

  • So I think across the board, we're seeing outstanding results in our Uinta basin.

    所以我認為,從整體來看,我們在尤因塔盆地取得了出色的成果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Scialla, Stephens.

    邁克爾·西亞拉,史蒂芬斯。

  • Mike Scialla - Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Analyst

  • I wanted to see if you could say how much oil went to the local refinery or refineries in the Uinta during the quarter and kind of the difference in transportation costs there between the two. And what determines that split from quarter to quarter?

    我想看看您是否能說出本季有多少石油運往了尤因塔當地的煉油廠,以及兩者之間的運輸成本差異。那麼,是什麼決定了各季度之間的差距呢?

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, I can jump in on that. Typically, we sell about 15% to 20% of our crude into the Salt Lake City refineries. It has a lower transportation costs. And anytime that we can get a higher percentage of our oil going to Salt Lake City refineries, we will do so.

    是的,我可以加入。通常,我們會將大約 15% 到 20% 的原油賣給鹽湖城煉油廠。運輸成本較低。只要我們可以讓更高比例的石油流向鹽湖城煉油廠,我們就會這麼做。

  • And so we continue to just try to maximize that market as much as possible. And then the rest, we send by rail.

    因此,我們將繼續盡力擴大該市場。其餘部分我們透過鐵路發送。

  • Mike Scialla - Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Analyst

  • Is that just based on capacity? There's no contracts that are underwriting or underpinning how much goes to one area or the other?

    這只是基於容量嗎?沒有任何合約可以承保或支援向某個地區或另一個地區輸送多少錢?

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, that's correct. We work with multiple refineries up there. Yeah.

    是的,正確。我們與那裡的多家煉油廠合作。是的。

  • Mike Scialla - Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Analyst

  • And it looks like you had pretty minor non-op activity in the first quarter, anticipating a little bit in the second quarter as well. I just want to see if you have any better visibility on the remainder of the year. If you think there will be any material change to that $1.3 billion of CapEx that you have planned for the year.

    看起來你們第一季的非營運活動相當少,預計第二季也會有一點。我只是想看看您對今年剩餘時間的情況是否有更好的了解。如果您認為今年計劃的 13 億美元資本支出將發生任何重大變化。

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, Mike. What I would say is so far, you could expect a similar run rate in the second half of the year as we're seeing in the first half. We don't deem that as material to our full year CapEx program. And that's why we haven't changed guidance.

    是的,麥克。我想說的是,到目前為止,你可以預期下半年的運行率與上半年的運行率相似。我們認為這對我們的全年資本支出計畫來說並不重要。這就是我們沒有改變指導的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Zach Parham, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的紮克·帕勒姆。

  • Zach Parham - Analyst

    Zach Parham - Analyst

  • Could you talk a little bit more about your operational plans for the year and going into '26? You've gone from nine rigs to seven rigs. You're planning to drop to six. As you see things today, would you plan to add back a rig in 2026, or is six the run rate going forward for the pro forma company with the three assets?

    能否再詳細談談今年以及 26 年的營運計畫?你們的鑽孔機數量從 9 台減至 7 台。您計劃將其降至六個。從目前的情況來看,您是否計劃在 2026 年重新增加一座鑽井平台,或者對於擁有三座資產的預計公司來說,六座鑽井平台是未來的運作率?

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I'll start with that one, Zach.

    是的。我先從這個開始,札克。

  • I got to say, hey, what do you think this strip will look like in November of 2025? No, I don't know. So we've really got scenarios and plans laid out that really are tempered to call it by the commodity prices that may show up or not later in the year and what the cost environment will be.

    我想問一下,嘿,您認為這條帶子在 2025 年 11 月會是什麼樣子?不,我不知道。因此,我們確實已經制定了方案和計劃,這些方案和計劃實際上是根據今年稍後可能出現或不出現的商品價格以及成本環境來調整的。

  • So we really don't have a 2026 plan laid out there. We have scenarios. And as we see a pathway unfold, we'll pursue the scenario that we've lined out for that price outcome, call it. And you know how it is. It's -- we work on a timeline that's quite different from the daily prices in the commodity markets.

    所以我們其實還沒有製定 2026 年的計畫。我們有場景。當我們看到路徑展開時,我們將追求為該價格結果所規劃的情景,稱之為。你知道這是怎麼回事。我們的工作時間表與商品市場的每日價格截然不同。

  • So we have to kind of sort out what is a short term phenomenon versus a trend in terms of what it leads to the commodity prices and costs. So that's how we set things up. That we don't have a specific plan for 2026, but we have multiple scenarios and we model the company.

    因此,我們必須根據其對商品價格和成本的影響,釐清哪些是短期現象,哪些是趨勢。這就是我們的安排。我們沒有針對 2026 年的具體計劃,但我們有多種情境並對公司進行了建模。

  • And that's why we can say, hey, we stick with this plan at current strip. It looks good down to $55. And then below that, we start looking at do we change anything, how long would that last? That's really how we look at it.

    這就是為什麼我們可以說,嘿,我們堅持目前的計劃。降到 55 美元看起來還不錯。然後,我們開始研究是否要改變什麼,以及改變會持續多久?我們確實是這樣看待它的。

  • A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • What happens to cost?

    成本會怎樣?

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, what happens to cost. And Wade has done quite a bit of modeling the company in even more adverse environments and we feel very comfortable from a balance sheet perspective.

    是啊,成本是多少。韋德在更惡劣的環境下對公司進行了大量的建模,從資產負債表的角度來看,我們感到非常放心。

  • Wade, do you want to add anything on that?

    韋德,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • No, you said it well. I mean I think I mentioned it earlier. At $55 flat, I mean you see us generating lots of free cash flow, paying the dividend, paying off maturities, a leverage metric in an area that we're very comfortable in.

    不,你說得很好。我的意思是我認為我之前提到過它。在 55 美元的固定利率下,我的意思是,您會看到我們產生大量自由現金流,支付股息,償還到期債務,這是我們非常滿意的領域的槓桿指標。

  • So if you're wondering about hedging, that's kind of influenced our hedging decisions a little bit. You'll see us do a lot of $55 floors on costless collars just to protect that level because that's a very positive level for us, if I could say it that way.

    因此,如果您對對沖感到疑惑,這在某種程度上影響了我們的對沖決策。你會看到,我們在無成本領子上做了很多 55 美元的下限,只是為了保護這個水平,因為對於我們來說這是一個非常積極的水平,如果我可以這樣說的話。

  • Zach Parham - Analyst

    Zach Parham - Analyst

  • Just to follow up, I think you've messaged in the past. You could generate single digit growth at kind of flat CapEx year over year. Is it fair to say if you were going to go to a maintenance program, CapEx would be down year over year based on cost that we're seeing now?

    只是為了跟進一下,我想您過去曾發過訊息。您可以實現逐年持平的資本支出,實現個位數成長。如果您要進行維護計劃,那麼根據我們現在看到的成本,資本支出是否會逐年下降?

  • Obviously, you could have service cost deflation as well.

    顯然,服務成本也可以下降。

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. That is a big wild card. We don't know exactly how things will go on costs for '26. I mean things are looking pretty good. That tariffs are really only influencing a small percentage of our cost. And under scenarios that are a little bit more adverse price wise, it's pretty close to flattish.

    是的。這是一個很大的未知數。我們並不確切知道 26 年的成本狀況會如何。我的意思是事情看起來非常好。關稅實際上只影響我們成本的一小部分。在價格稍微不利的情況下,它幾乎持平。

  • Obviously, there's quarter to quarter variation depending on when turn lines are coming on, but I think that answers what you're looking for.

    顯然,根據轉彎線出現的時間,季度與季度之間會存在差異,但我認為這回答了您所尋找的問題。

  • A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • If you're just looking at year over year dollars going from 9 to 6 this year and being at 6-ish next year, obviously, the cost would be overall lower.

    如果您只看同比金額,今年從 9 降至 6,明年約為 6,那麼顯然總體成本會更低。

  • Zach Parham - Analyst

    Zach Parham - Analyst

  • And with those 6 rigs, you could hold flat next year. Is that fair?

    有了這 6 個鑽孔機,明年就可以保持穩定。這樣公平嗎?

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. It depends a little bit on the mix, and where you are on BO versus BOE. So if we drill in more on the South Texas side because of the gas and NGL prices being better, then obviously it's easier to be above flattish.

    是的。這有點取決於混合情況,以及您在 BO 和 BOE 上的位置。因此,如果我們因為天然氣和天然氣液體價格更好而在南德克薩斯州進行更多鑽探,那麼顯然更容易達到略高於平緩的價格。

  • But if you drill more heavily into the oil, you'd be at the lower end just because of the nature of BOEs versus BO.

    但是,如果你對石油進行更深入的鑽探,你就會處於較低的水平,這僅僅是因為 BOE 與 BO 的性質不同。

  • A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • It's in the flattish area.

    它位於較平坦的區域。

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • But it's in the flattish area.

    但它位於較平坦的區域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabe Daoud, TD Cowen.

    加布·達烏德(Gabe Daoud),TD Cowen。

  • Gabe Daoud - Analyst

    Gabe Daoud - Analyst

  • I was hoping maybe you could just start with a clarification on the trajectory for the second half of this year. Did you say earlier that 3Q should show -- I guess it'll show sequential growth, but is 3Q growth more than the type of growth that we will see or that you guided to in 2Q? Is that fair?

    我希望您能先澄清一下今年下半年的發展軌跡。您之前是否說過第三季應該會出現—我猜它會顯示出連續成長,但第三季的成長是否高於我們將看到的成長類型或您在第二季預測的成長類型?這樣公平嗎?

  • Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Beth McDonald - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, that's fair.

    是的,這很公平。

  • Gabe Daoud - Analyst

    Gabe Daoud - Analyst

  • And then maybe this is a follow up. If we could maybe get a one on one type explanation around how you went to production/ sales is booked from a revenue standpoint. And just given the lag between when the barrels get transported versus your revenue recognition, will there always be a mismatch between sales volumes and production at the wellhead, and should we expect a true up at some point to make you whole on that, or will there always just simply be a little bit of a discrepancy between those two?

    這也許是一種後續行動。如果我們可以從收入的角度一對一地解釋一下您如何進行生產/銷售。並且考慮到石油運輸和收入確認之間的時間差,銷售量和井口產量之間是否總是存在不匹配的情況,我們是否應該預期在某個時候會出現真正的上漲,讓您對此感到滿意,或者這兩者之間是否總是存在一點點差異?

  • A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    A. Wade Pursell - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • This is Wade. I would not call it a true up. There will be slight lags just depending on a cut off of the date for the reasons that you articulated. So there will always be some lag there and some small difference there going forward is the way I would say it.

    這是韋德。我不會稱之為真正的進步。由於您所述的原因,僅根據截止日期就會出現輕微的延遲。所以我想說的是,那裡總是會存在一些滯後,未來還會存在一些細微的差別。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session.

    問答環節現已結束。

  • I would like to turn the floor back to Herb Vogel for closing remarks.

    我想請 Herb Vogel 做最後發言。

  • Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Herbert Vogel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Chamali, and thank you all for joining us today.

    謝謝,Chamali,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

  • We look forward to seeing a number of you at upcoming events.

    我們期待在即將舉行的活動中見到你們。

  • Have a good day.

    祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。