SM Energy Co (SM) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the SM Energy First Quarter Results Q&A discussion. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Samuels, VP of IR and ESG Stewardship. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 SM Energy 第一季度業績問答討論。今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想將會議轉交給 IR 和 ESG 管理副總裁 Jennifer Samuels。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for a Q&A session. To answer your questions today, we have our President and CEO, Herb Vogel; and CFO, Wade Pursell.

大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的問答環節。今天有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Herb Vogel 來回答您的問題；和首席財務官 Wade Pursell。

Before we get started, as usual, our discussion today may include forward-looking statements and discussion of non-GAAP measures. I direct you to Slide 2 of the accompanying slide deck on Page 5 of the accompanying earnings release and the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed 10-K, which describe risk associated with forward-looking statements which could cause actual results to differ. We may also refer to non-GAAP measures, please see the slide deck appendix in the earnings release for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and the section of forward-looking non-GAAP measures. As a reminder, we have posted an investor presentation and transcript to our prerecorded call from yesterday that we may reference in the call today and look for the first quarter 10-Q filed this morning. With that, I will turn it over to Herb for a brief opening commentary, Herb?

在我們開始之前，像往常一樣，我們今天的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 措施的討論。我指導您查看隨附收益發布第 5 頁上隨附幻燈片的幻燈片 2 和我們最近提交的 10-K 的風險因素部分，其中描述了與可能導致實際結果不同的前瞻性陳述相關的風險。我們也可以參考非 GAAP 措施，請參閱收益發布中的幻燈片附錄，了解非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的定義和對賬，以及前瞻性非 GAAP 措施部分。提醒一下，我們已經在昨天的預錄電話中發布了一份投資者介紹和文字記錄，我們可能會在今天的電話中參考，並尋找今天早上提交的第一季度 10-Q。有了這個，我會把它交給 Herb 做一個簡短的開場評論，Herb？

Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, and thank you for joining our Q&A call this morning. Before we get started, I will reiterate a few key messages this quarter. We're pleased to report that we have repurchased 2.8 million shares since inception of our return of capital program in September. And including our increased fixed dividend, we have returned a total of $134 million. We are well positioned to provide a solid return to our shareholders in 2023 through the combination of our fixed dividend and upside through share repurchases. Execution was solid in the first quarter, not only exceeding guidance for oil and total production volumes, but recognizing notable operational achievements such as drilling 75,000 feet of lateral 20 days faster than planned or successfully drilling 5,000 to 18,000-foot laterals, which are now among the longest laterals in the Midland Basin -- is the key objective to maintain and build our inventory. And during the first quarter, we made progress on this front with organic growth through the purchase of 6,300 net acres in the Midland Basin. This first quarter is a solid start to what we believe will be a great year. With that, I will turn it back to Lisa to start taking your questions.

謝謝，詹妮弗。早上好，感謝您今天早上加入我們的問答電話。在我們開始之前，我將重申本季度的一些關鍵信息。我們很高興地報告，自 9 月份啟動資本返還計劃以來，我們已經回購了 280 萬股股票。包括我們增加的固定股息在內，我們總共返還了 1.34 億美元。我們有能力通過我們的固定股息和股票回購帶來的好處相結合，在 2023 年為我們的股東提供可觀的回報。第一季度執行穩健，不僅超過了石油和總產量的指導，而且認識到顯著的運營成就，例如比計劃快 20 天鑽探 75,000 英尺的橫向井或成功鑽探 5,000 至 18,000 英尺的橫向井，這些現在都在米德蘭盆地最長的分支——是維持和建立我們庫存的關鍵目標。在第一季度，我們通過在米德蘭盆地購買 6,300 英畝淨土地，在這方面取得了有機增長。第一季度是我們認為將是偉大一年的堅實開端。有了這個，我會把它轉回麗莎開始回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們將從 RBC 資本市場的 Scott Hanold 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

You all had a pretty good start to the year on your production performance. Can you -- I know you gave some color on your prepared remarks last night and in your press release, but can you give a little more color on what sort of things are you seeing? It seems like there's better operational efficiency, maybe a little bit better well performance and is part of it, too, as you extend these laterals are seeing better performance? Or is that more on the come yet?

你們今年的生產業績開局不錯。你能不能——我知道你在昨晚和你的新聞稿中對你準備好的言論做了一些說明，但你能對你看到的是什麼樣的事情給出更多說明嗎？似乎有更好的運營效率，也許更好的油井性能，這也是其中的一部分，當您擴展這些支管時，是否會看到更好的性能？或者還會有更多嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Scott. I would say it's just regular blocking and tackling. Our well results are -- it's actually quite predictable on what they do. And it's a matter of how much offset activity there is, and it was pretty much in line with what our expectations were during the quarter. The base performance has been great on our base decline of PDP wells. And then the new wells are performing as expected or better. And in one case, in the case of that Eagle Ford South Texas pad, 7 wells came on a week early. So I would just say it's -- we find it very predictable for our wells. And then on the uncertainty it is just how much offset activity we've got to anticipate.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。我會說這只是常規的攔截和攔截。我們的良好結果是 - 實際上他們所做的是完全可以預測的。這取決於有多少抵消活動，這與我們在本季度的預期非常一致。由於我們的 PDP 井基礎下降，基礎表現很好。然後新油井的表現符合預期或更好。在一個案例中，就 Eagle Ford South Texas 油田而言，有 7 口井提前一周投產。所以我只想說它是 - 我們發現它對我們的油井來說非常可預測。然後關於不確定性，我們必須預測多少抵消活動。

Okay. No, I appreciate that. And as my follow-up, you talked about that picking up a little bit of acreage. Could you, at a high level, talk about the strategy there? And is this more tactical kind of bolt-ons? Or do you see the opportunity to kind of continue to do more of that and scale up a little bit? And I'm just kind of curious like how big of kind of -- how much acquisition activity in terms of size do you feel comfortable to do?

好的。不，我很感激。作為我的後續行動，你談到了一點點種植面積。您能否從較高的層面談談那裡的戰略？這是更具戰術性的補強措施嗎？還是您看到了繼續做更多事情並擴大一點規模的機會？而且我只是有點好奇，比如有多大 - 就規模而言，你覺得可以做多少收購活動？

Yes. Scott, this is Herb again. I would say we've all along since we really built our position in the Midland Basin, we've been looking at acreage trades, acreage acquisitions where it makes sense. And fortunately, our geosciences team has -- it's pretty laser-focused on intervals that are differential in terms of their return performance. And we keep looking at places where it makes sense and where we can get the acreage at a reasonable cost. And that was certainly the case for the last quarter of last year, first quarter of this year, and we're going to continue to do that.

是的。斯科特，我又是赫伯。我想說的是，自從我們真正在米德蘭盆地建立我們的位置以來，我們一直在尋找有意義的土地交易和收購。幸運的是，我們的地球科學團隊非常專注於返回性能不同的間隔。我們一直在尋找有意義的地方以及我們可以以合理的成本獲得種植面積的地方。去年最後一個季度，今年第一季度肯定是這種情況，我們將繼續這樣做。

There are large packages. There are small packages on the market right now. Private equity, as you know, been selling some of their positions. We look at those if we can get something that makes sense from a returns perspective, we look at it hard. And obviously, we keep it at a scale that makes sense for the company because we're not going to do something that wrecks the balance sheet. That's really how it looks. So yes, we'll keep looking.

有大包裹。現在市場上有小包裝。如您所知，私募股權一直在出售其部分頭寸。如果我們能從回報的角度得到一些有意義的東西，我們就會看看那些，我們會認真考慮。顯然，我們將其保持在對公司有意義的規模，因為我們不會做破壞資產負債表的事情。這真的是它的樣子。所以是的，我們會繼續尋找。

Okay, right. So similarly, there's been some larger deals that have happened nearby. You look at things like that, it just has to make sense. Is that a fair way to look at it?

好的，對。同樣，附近發生了一些更大的交易。你看這樣的事情，它必須是有道理的。這是一個公平的方式來看待它嗎？

Right. Exactly. That's to make sense for the scale of our company and the quality of the acreage. We have a really high bar on that quality of acreage metric so that we make sure we continue to get those high returns that we currently enjoy in the Midland Basin and Austin Chalk in South Texas.

正確的。確切地。這對於我們公司的規模和種植面積的質量來說是有意義的。我們對種植面積指標的質量有一個非常高的標準，因此我們確保我們繼續獲得我們目前在德克薩斯州南部的米德蘭盆地和 Austin Chalk 享受的高回報。

We'll take our next question from Leo Mariani with ROTH MKM.

我們將與 ROTH MKM 一起接受 Leo Mariani 的下一個問題。

I wanted to follow up a little bit more in terms of this 6,300 net acres, which you bought. It looks like around $10 million. So relatively low priced, I guess, roughly $1,600 an acre. So is this kind of more exploratory acreage? Just looking at the slide deck, it looks like it's not in Rockstar. It's not in Sweetie Peck, if I'm reading that correctly? And is there any color whether or not there's kind of well control on this stuff? Is this kind of more away from sort of the existing assets? And maybe you've got some intel there that you think this can be promising. Just any more details would be great.

我想就您購買的這 6,300 英畝淨土地進行更多跟進。看起來大約是1000萬美元。所以價格相對較低，我猜，大約每英畝 1,600 美元。那麼這種是不是更具有探索性的面積呢？只看幻燈片，它好像不在 Rockstar 中。它不在 Sweetie Peck 中，如果我沒看錯的話？是否有任何顏色是否對這些東西有很好的控制？這是否更遠離現有資產？也許你在那裡有一些你認為這很有前途的情報。任何更多細節都會很棒。

Yes. Leo, I know a lot of people would be curious about that. And obviously, we're not saying we would have put it on the math if we were. And you'll see more in the future about that. But right now, we're really not saying anything more.

是的。 Leo，我知道很多人對此感到好奇。顯然，我們並不是說如果我們這樣做的話，我們會把它放在數學上。將來你會看到更多。但現在，我們真的沒有再說什麼了。

Okay. And then just in terms of the Chalk wells, you guys have these 7 wells, which you clearly saying came on early, but sounded like very strong performers as well. Just trying to get a sense there. Have you guys benefited at all from kind of the new completion designs that you guys have been experimenting with for the past handful of quarters. Is that potentially leading to some of the strong performance of wells? Or is that something that's maybe more late this year into next year? And then just on the midstream side, you guys obviously had some issues in the fourth quarter in terms of not being able to flow your wells. Do you feel like those midstream issues are behind you in the Chalk now this year.

好的。然後就粉筆井而言，你們有這 7 口井，您清楚地說這些井很早就出現了，但聽起來表現也非常出色。只是想在那裡了解一下。你們是否從過去幾個季度一直在試驗的新完成設計中受益？這是否有可能導致油井的一些強勁表現？或者是今年晚些時候到明年的事情？然後就在中游方面，你們顯然在第四節遇到了一些問題，無法讓你的油井流動。您覺得今年的 Chalk 中那些中游問題已經過去了嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Leo. Great questions. First of all, I'll just say that all our new Austin Chalk wells outperformed our expectations. It has been great to see all the improvements, and some of that is completion and the design improvement. There's a number of other factors why they performed better. You'll recall, we did have too much oil in our -- for our facilities last quarter and the third quarter last year, and that's steadily being relieved, and we should be done with that by the end of the second quarter. So that kind of which made state data look kind of odd because wells were basically capped in what they could produce because of the high back pressures. That's steadily being relieved. So we don't anticipate that problem extending to the end of the year.

是的。謝謝，利奧。很好的問題。首先，我只想說我們所有新的 Austin Chalk 油井都超出了我們的預期。很高興看到所有改進，其中一些是完成和設計改進。他們表現更好的原因還有很多。你會記得，我們在上個季度和去年第三季度的設施中確實有太多的石油，而且這種情況正在穩步緩解，我們應該在第二季度末完成。因此，這種情況使狀態數據看起來有點奇怪，因為由於高背壓，油井基本上限制了它們的產量。這正在穩步緩解。因此，我們預計該問題不會延續到今年年底。

We do have to watch it when we bring on a lot of wells that are very oily. We have to really watch and choke back to make sure we don't wind up with a problem that way. But we've managed through that one, and now you're able to see those -- how good those wells really are that we've been drilling. And part of that is all the optimizations we're doing. And some of that's very detailed in the completion design itself and some of it is just more the laterals and what interval they targeted. I think that got all your questions?

當我們開採大量含油量很高的油井時，我們確實必須注意它。我們必須認真觀察並克制自己，以確保我們不會以這種方式解決問題。但是我們已經完成了那個，現在你可以看到那些 - 我們一直在鑽探的那些油井真的有多好。其中一部分是我們正在進行的所有優化。其中一些在完井設計本身中非常詳細，其中一些只是更多的橫向和他們的目標間隔。我想這得到了你所有的問題？

Yes, very thorough. Appreciate it.

是的，非常徹底。欣賞它。

We'll take our next question from Zach Parham with JPMorgan.

我們將接受摩根大通 Zach Parham 的下一個問題。

I guess first just on cash return. You returned over 100% of free cash flow to shareholders this quarter. Going forward, do you plan to remain purely opportunistic with the buyback? Or have you considered putting in a 10b5-1 plan? Just trying to get a sense of the future pace of the buyback?

我想首先只是現金回報。本季度您向股東返還了超過 100% 的自由現金流。展望未來，您是否打算在回購中保持純粹的機會主義？或者您是否考慮過制定 10b5-1 計劃？只是想了解回購的未來步伐？

Yes. Zach, it's Wade. Just to answer the last part of that question first. No current plan to put in a 10b program. The -- we're basically executing the way we said we would. I see no reason that won't continue. And that is simply during open windows, and I will say the first quarter was probably the shortest open window of the year just because of the timing of year-end reporting. But we just like to kind of methodically go through those open windows and support the stock. We certainly have a view of NAV.

是的。扎克，是韋德。只是先回答該問題的最後一部分。目前沒有加入 10b 程序的計劃。 - 我們基本上按照我們說的方式執行。我認為沒有理由不繼續下去。這只是在開放窗口期間，我會說第一季度可能是一年中最短的開放窗口，只是因為年終報告的時間安排。但我們只是想有條不紊地瀏覽那些打開的窗口並支持股票。我們當然有 NAV 的觀點。

So when we feel like there are times of undervalue, we lean in a little bit more. I probably saw some of that in the first quarter. But that will continue, and we moderate all of those expectations with a humility towards the macro and what could happen over the remainder of this year, next year. So that's kind of the plan. And just to remind everyone, the Board authorized up to $500 million of share buybacks through the end of next year. And -- and I guess, so far, we're close to $100 million. So you can just kind of see we're executing really exactly, I think, the way we said we would.

因此，當我們覺得有時價值被低估時，我們會更加傾向於。我可能在第一季度看到了其中的一些。但這將繼續下去，我們以對宏觀經濟以及今年剩餘時間和明年可能發生的事情的謙遜態度緩和所有這些預期。這就是計劃。提醒大家，董事會授權在明年年底前進行高達 5 億美元的股票回購。而且 - 我想，到目前為止，我們接近 1 億美元。所以你可以看到我們確實按照我們說的方式執行。

Thanks for color. Just to follow up on something you said in the prepared remarks, you mentioned you were starting to see some improvement on costs and mentioning that rig counts have moved lower industry wide. At this point, what are your expectations for any cost deflation later this year? And how could that impact your CapEx budget maybe in the back half of the year and into '24.

謝謝你的顏色。只是為了跟進你在準備好的評論中所說的話，你提到你開始看到成本有所改善，並提到鑽機數量在整個行業範圍內下降。在這一點上，您對今年晚些時候的任何成本通縮有何預期？這可能會在今年下半年和 24 世紀影響您的資本支出預算。

I would just comment and then let Herb give color if he wants that we certainly are not baking anything in at this point with respect to rig rates and completion rates. There are some -- as I mentioned in the comments, utilization does appear to be falling and rates do appear to be plateauing. So that could bode well for the second half, but we're certainly not guiding or planning on any of that yet, Herb?

我只想發表評論，然後讓 Herb 給出顏色，如果他希望我們在這一點上肯定不會在鑽機率和完成率方面烘烤任何東西。有一些 - 正如我在評論中提到的那樣，利用率似乎確實在下降，而利率似乎正在趨於平穩。所以這對下半場來說可能是個好兆頭，但我們肯定還沒有指導或計劃任何一個，Herb？

Yes. Zach, I think you probably hear this from a lot of the operators. But clearly, we've seen a reduction in our diesel costs and diesel costs are actually a pretty significant component of our CapEx and probably call out a 25% reduction from the fourth quarter. Steel costs are rolling over pretty clearly. Rig costs, you're aware, we feather our rig contracts, they are 1-year contracts. And so every 2.5 months, we have another rig contract come off, and they're getting exposed to market rates. And we see that as so far flattening so that's another cost component.

是的。扎克，我想你可能從很多運營商那裡聽到過這一點。但很明顯，我們已經看到我們的柴油成本有所下降，而柴油成本實際上是我們資本支出的一個相當重要的組成部分，並且可能會從第四季度開始減少 25%。鋼鐵成本的回滾非常明顯。鑽機成本，你知道，我們的鑽機合同是 1 年期合同。因此，每 2.5 個月，我們就會有另一份鑽機合同到期，他們將面臨市場利率的影響。我們認為到目前為止已經趨於平緩，因此這是另一個成本組成部分。

And then on the pumping services side, it looks like there's some gas basins that are letting crews go and some Permian pickups on fracs. We monitor how many new ones are coming to the market in the fourth quarter. There were 7 new frac spreads in the first quarter, there were 3 and the fact there's going to be quite a few coming on in the second quarter. So we'll see where that goes because that is a big cost component. And then it looks like sand production in the U.S. is up quite a bit. And we've got a great contract and a great provider on the sand side.

然後在泵送服務方面，看起來有一些天然氣盆地正在讓工作人員離開，還有一些二疊紀的水力壓裂。我們監測第四季度有多少新產品進入市場。第一季度有 7 個新的 frac 價差，有 3 個，事實上第二季度會有很多。所以我們會看看它的去向，因為這是一個很大的成本組成部分。然後看起來美國的沙子產量增加了很多。我們在沙灘上有一份很好的合同和一個很好的供應商。

And then the sand last mile logistics is another area, and that's partly driven by diesel costs. So we benefit there. And that's something that gets renegotiated quarterly based on what cost indexes are. So there's quite a bit to look at on the inflation side, but we're pretty comfortable with where we are, what we budgeted and our assumptions. So we don't see a need to change anything at this time.

然後最後一英里的物流是另一個領域，這在一定程度上是由柴油成本驅動的。所以我們在那裡受益。這是根據成本指數每季度重新協商的事情。因此，在通貨膨脹方面有很多值得關注的地方，但我們對目前的狀況、預算和假設感到非常滿意。因此，我們認為此時不需要更改任何內容。

We'll take our next question from Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們將接受 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Tim Rezvan 的下一個問題。

I wanted to dig in a little more on the South Texas gathering issue because I know it was a big headwind in the end of the year. Herb, you just gave commentary, you think it will be behind you by midyear. Can you talk with specifics about what is happening and what gives you confidence that, that will be behind you?

我想深入了解南德克薩斯州的聚會問題，因為我知道這在年底是一個很大的阻力。 Herb，你剛剛發表了評論，你認為它會在年中結束。你能具體談談正在發生的事情嗎？是什麼讓你有信心，那將在你身後？

Yes, Tim. Yes, it's all around the facilities together with our midstream gathering partner. And there's a lot of components to what we're doing there. So we've talked about before the backbone where we put in or progressively putting in larger pipe or line looping to get more capacity. But there's components from separation optimization to pipeline modifications, then there's some automation to reduce manual intervention. So overall, it's just to increase the liquids handling capacity to a system that was designed for much higher gas from the Eagle Ford.

是的，蒂姆。是的，它與我們的中游收集合作夥伴一起在設施周圍。我們在那裡所做的事情有很多組成部分。因此，我們已經討論過在我們放入或逐步放入更大的管道或線路環路以獲得更多容量的骨幹網之前。但是有從分離優化到管道修改的組件，然後有一些自動化來減少人工干預。所以總的來說，這只是為了增加系統的液體處理能力，該系統是為鷹福特更高的氣體而設計的。

And so when we drill very oily wells, particularly in that northwest area, we've had to expand the capacity. The oil rates are much higher and faster than we would have anticipated when we commenced the Austin Chalk program. And so now we're playing a little bit of catch-up, and we should be there by the end of the second quarter. It's a great problem to have, right, too much oil?

因此，當我們鑽探含油量很高的油井時，尤其是在西北地區，我們不得不擴大產能。石油價格比我們開始 Austin Chalk 計劃時預期的要高得多和快得多。所以現在我們正在追趕，我們應該會在第二節結束時趕上。油太多是個大問題，對吧？

You can flow, yes, it's a good problem, I guess.

你可以流動，是的，我想這是個好問題。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay. I appreciate. I appreciate that context. And then I wanted to circle back to the repurchases. I guess Wade had mentioned the window was sort of short in the first quarter, but $40 million was, I guess, slightly higher than what you did in the fourth quarter. Barring any unforeseen issues where you can't repurchase, does that seem like a good steady-state cadence to model going forward?

好的。我很感激。我很欣賞這種背景。然後我想回到回購。我猜 Wade 提到第一季度的窗口有點短，但我猜 4000 萬美元略高於你在第四季度所做的。除非出現無法回購的任何不可預見的問題，否則這似乎是一個很好的穩態節奏來模擬未來的發展嗎？

Generally, yes. Every quarter, we'll have it. We look at it every day. And as I mentioned, we -- there will be periods where we lean in a little bit more based on our view of how the stock is trading. But generally speaking, yes, you could assume something like that.

一般來說，是的。每個季度，我們都會有它。我們每天都看它。正如我所提到的，我們 - 有時我們會根據我們對股票交易方式的看法更加傾斜。但一般來說，是的，你可以假設類似的事情。

Okay. Okay. And then if I could just sneak one last one in. You continue to build cash on the balance sheet. You have well over $350 million, which is the 2025 note size. Do you continue to view that cash just sort of the offset to that debt maturity? And would you expect to continue to grow cash into the next year or 2 as you have these bond maturities due? Or how do you think about the right sort of capital structure?

好的。好的。然後，如果我能偷偷最後一個。你繼續在資產負債表上建立現金。你有超過 3.5 億美元，這是 2025 年的紙幣規模。您是否繼續認為現金只是對債務到期的一種抵消？由於這些債券到期，您是否希望在明年或兩年內繼續增加現金？或者您如何看待正確的資本結構？

Yes, sure. Good question. And yes, everything you said is accurate. We are building cash. We are generating free cash flow. So kind of everything else equal, you could anticipate that depending on when we decide to take out the maturities. The 2025, which is obviously the first maturity that's facing us is still over a couple of years away, incredibly attractive coupon in this environment at 5 5/8% that's probably better than investment right now for our peers. So the interest we're earning on the cash is not that far away from that. So there's not a lot of cost to continuing -- to continue with the cash. It feels like the right thing to do in this environment, still a lot of uncertainty.

是的，當然。好問題。是的，你說的一切都是準確的。我們正在積累現金。我們正在產生自由現金流。因此，在其他一切都相同的情況下，您可以預期這取決於我們決定何時取消到期日。 2025 年顯然是我們面臨的第一個成熟期，距離我們還有幾年的時間，在這種環境下，5 5/8% 的優惠券極具吸引力，這可能比我們同行現在的投資更好。因此，我們從現金中賺取的利息與此相去不遠。因此，繼續使用現金並沒有太多成本。感覺在這種環境下做正確的事，仍然有很多不確定性。

So we'll take another hard look at it when it -- I think in a couple of months or less than a couple of months, those 25s become callable at par. So we'll take another hard look at that time. But you'll see us take those out at some point. But in the meantime, you'll -- I think we've got a nice cash balance and it will grow and subject to opportunities that are always hard to predict. So really happy with the condition of the balance sheet, obviously.

因此，我們將再次仔細研究它——我認為在幾個月或不到幾個月的時間裡，那些 25 歲的人可以按面值贖回。所以我們會在那個時候再仔細看看。但是你會看到我們在某個時候把它們去掉。但與此同時，你會 - 我認為我們有一個很好的現金餘額，它會增長並受到總是難以預測的機會的影響。顯然，對資產負債表的狀況真的很滿意。

As a reminder, everyone, that is we'll take our next question from Oliver Huang with TPH & Company.

提醒大家，我們將接受來自 TPH & Company 的 Oliver Huang 的下一個問題。

A quick question on the longer laterals. It looks like the team has been able to successfully push the envelope at this juncture on lateral length with 5,000, 18,000 foot lateral wells online in Q1. Just wanted to see if we might be able to get a bit more detail in terms of what some of the primary challenges that you all encountered were expectations for well productivity on a per foot basis relative to the standard 2-milers you all have been predominantly averaging over the last few years? And just how many more of these currently sit as prospective on your acreage footprint as is?

一個關於較長支管的快速問題。看起來團隊已經能夠在第一季度在線使用 5,000、18,000 英尺的側井，在這個時刻成功地突破了橫向長度的極限。只是想看看我們是否能夠更詳細地了解你們所遇到的一些主要挑戰是相對於你們所有人主要採用的標準 2 英里的每英尺油井生產率的期望過去幾年的平均值？還有多少這些目前在您的種植面積足跡上具有前景？

Yes. Oliver, that's a great question. Obviously, one that we monitor very, very closely, right? And you're probably aware, we have a few of the longest wells in the Midland Basin, we have a big database. And I will say I was skeptical this at first, but it's pretty much one-to-one. And you're aware, we hold the Texas record with the longest lateral of just about 4 miles. So we do have a big database, and we're pleased with the way the longer laterals are panning out. Now the least geometry is really what drives how long those laterals are. And so it's just a matter of when we see an opportunity to extend and improve the economics significantly, then we'll pursue the longer laterals. If we don't see that improved of economics, then we don't.

是的。奧利弗，這是一個很好的問題。顯然，我們非常非常密切地監控，對吧？你可能知道，我們在米德蘭盆地有幾口最長的井，我們有一個大數據庫。我會說一開始我對此持懷疑態度，但它幾乎是一對一的。你知道，我們保持著得克薩斯州的最長橫向記錄，僅約 4 英里。所以我們確實有一個大數據庫，我們對較長的橫向平移方式感到滿意。現在，最少的幾何形狀實際上是驅動這些橫向的長度的因素。因此，這只是我們何時看到顯著擴展和改善經濟性的機會的問題，然後我們將追求更長的橫向。如果我們看不到經濟的改善，那麼我們就不會。

What are some of the issues as long laterals is you're probably aware, a lot of these -- when we start production with the low GOR wells with the high oil percentage, that the electric submersive pumps can only pump so much. And so they wind up and plateau a little bit longer than it would be with a short lateral. But the overall returns on these wells are great because the costs are so much lower. Technically, what's important is to really get a flick straight drilling process. You really have to have great coordinations in your drilling, your completions team and what they can do with the fracs and then the drill outs.

您可能已經意識到了一些問題，因為您可能已經意識到，其中很多 - 當我們開始使用含油率高的低 GOR 井進行生產時，電動潛水泵只能泵送這麼多。因此，與短橫向相比，它們結束和穩定的時間要長一點。但這些油井的總體回報率很高，因為成本要低得多。從技術上講，重要的是真正實現輕彈直鑽工藝。你真的必須在你的鑽井、你的完井團隊以及他們可以用壓裂和鑽井做些什麼方面進行很好的協調。

And we have some things that we do to make sure that we get full contribution from the toe stages and I think some companies will bend their pick on that one, but we've been successful on that part of it also. So that's really the summary. And I'm not going to forecast how many of these come up, but they are great opportunities, and we look at them hard, and we do have a big database.

我們做了一些事情來確保我們從腳趾階段得到充分的貢獻，我認為一些公司會在這方面做出選擇，但我們在這方面也取得了成功。這就是總結。而且我不打算預測其中有多少會出現，但它們是很好的機會，我們認真研究它們，我們確實有一個大數據庫。

That makes sense. And for a second question, just on the production side, a solid quarter relative to the expectations you all had laid out. And another difficult question to answer, but we were wondering if there was any level of detail you all might be able to provide in terms of how much higher production levels could have looked if wells were performing at optimal levels, if not for frac shut-ins from offset operator activity, just to kind of help investors better understand the full potential of your asset base?

這就說得通了。關於第二個問題，就生產方面而言，相對於你們所有人的預期而言，這是一個穩定的季度。另一個難以回答的問題，但我們想知道如果油井以最佳水平運行，如果不是壓裂關閉，你們是否可以提供任何程度的細節，說明產量水平可以提高多少？來自抵消運營商活動的信息，只是為了幫助投資者更好地了解您資產基礎的全部潛力？

Yes, Oliver, I would just say the number of wells we have in the Permian Basin are type curves, they're solid. We don't move them around much year-over-year. They're solid, and we have additional intervals coming on. As you're aware, we forecast the 8 different potential target zones, and they're coming in as expected. We are really good at optimizing the spacing, both vertical and horizontal and we're codeveloping. So I would say the well results are very predictable in the Austin Chalk now. We're at -- I think we have 75 wells that have already reached the IP 30 and we've got another 7 online beyond those, so 82 total. So that's very predictable also.

是的，奧利弗，我只想說我們在二疊紀盆地的油井數量是類型曲線，它們是實心的。我們不會逐年移動它們。它們很堅固，我們還有額外的間隔。如您所知，我們預測了 8 個不同的潛在目標區域，它們按預期進入。我們非常擅長優化垂直和水平間距，我們正在共同開發。所以我想說 Austin Chalk 現在的油井結果是非常可預測的。我們在——我認為我們有 75 口井已經達到了 IP 30，我們還有另外 7 口在線井，所以總共有 82 口。所以這也是可以預見的。

So what is hard to predict is when there's offset operators, less so probably in South Texas, but in the Permian, if there's offset operators and we do have a reasonable forecast. We do communicate so we know when they're going to happen, but sometimes somebody will be delayed, change their schedule and that may change things. So that's where I'd sum it up. I don't think it makes any sense to say, here's what the wells could have done, and then we're going to subtract this for potential shut-ins. I think we'll just show over time continued great performance of the wells, and it's really -- bottom line comes down how much free cash flow, right, because our plan is set up to maximize free cash flow over a 2- to 3-year period. So that's the number we focus on. Free cash flow more than anything else.

因此，很難預測的是何時有抵消運營商，在南德克薩斯不太可能，但在二疊紀，如果有抵消運營商，我們確實有一個合理的預測。我們確實進行了溝通，所以我們知道它們什麼時候會發生，但有時有人會被推遲，改變他們的日程安排，這可能會改變事情。這就是我總結的地方。我認為這樣說沒有任何意義，這是油井本可以做的事情，然後我們將減去它以獲得潛在的關閉。我認為我們會隨著時間的推移展示油井的持續良好表現，而且它真的 - 底線取決於多少自由現金流，對，因為我們的計劃是在 2 到 3 的時間內最大化自由現金流-年期間。這就是我們關注的數字。自由現金流比什麼都重要。

Awesome. That's helpful. And if I could squeeze one last question. Just on the inventory side, I know you all highlighted 6 Leonard well tests in the first half of the year and 7 Wolfcamp D tests in 2023. Just any color to provide in terms of the spacing designs of these tests? Are they part of a co-development pad? Are these tests across a specific portion of your acreage? Or is it something that's looking to be a little bit more localized? Just trying to understand that a bit better.

驚人的。這很有幫助。如果我能擠出最後一個問題。就庫存方面，我知道你們都強調了今年上半年的 6 次倫納德油井測試和 2023 年的 7 次 Wolfcamp D 測試。就這些測試的間距設計而言，可以提供任何顏色嗎？它們是共同開發平台的一部分嗎？這些測試是否在您種植面積的特定部分進行？還是希望更加本地化？只是想更好地理解這一點。

Yes. I'll just general say the Wolfcamp D is entirely isolated with a thick section between the Wolfcamp D and the prospective Wolfcamp B -- so there's no frac interference so we don't need to do co-development there. And we've been working on what's the appropriate lateral spacing and the best target interval and Wolfcamp D is quite fixed. So that's really the focus of our effort. We have quite a few wells and then there's a lot of offset operator wells also. So we're starting to get a big database in order to forecast the performance there.

是的。我只是籠統地說 Wolfcamp D 完全隔離，在 Wolfcamp D 和未來的 Wolfcamp B 之間有一個厚厚的部分——所以沒有壓裂干擾，所以我們不需要在那裡進行共同開發。我們一直在研究什麼是合適的橫向間距和最佳目標間距，Wolfcamp D 非常固定。所以這確實是我們努力的重點。我們有很多油井，然後還有很多抵消運營商的油井。所以我們開始建立一個大數據庫來預測那裡的表現。

On the Leonard, the Leonard will work where it's firmly mature. And so you have to have a pretty good sense of thermal maturity in the Leonard to understand where those wells will perform well, and we're gathering additional data on that. We really don't have any additional results to share yet on the Leonard and the Wolfcamp D. But as they get to their IP 30s and then we'll start having some data out there. But so far, it is a focus for 2023, though.

在倫納德身上，倫納德將在它成熟的地方發揮作用。因此，您必須對 Leonard 的熱成熟度有很好的了解，才能了解這些油井在何處表現良好，我們正在收集更多相關數據。我們真的沒有關於 Leonard 和 Wolfcamp D 的任何額外結果可以分享。但是當他們達到 IP 30 時，我們將開始提供一些數據。但到目前為止，這是 2023 年的重點。

And we have a follow-up question from Leo Mariani with ROTH MKM.

我們有來自 Leo Mariani 和 ROTH MKM 的後續問題。

I guess just a quick question around cash taxes. Do you guys have kind of an estimate of roughly how much you think that's going to be in kind of current commodity prices here in 2023?

我想只是一個關於現金稅的快速問題。你們有沒有估計到 2023 年這裡的當前商品價格大概有多少？

Leo, it's pretty similar to what we said before, pretty nominal this year, 2023, I think probably 0 to $10 million. Based on current commodities, if you look out to next year, it's probably a little lower than I would have said before, something in the $60 million range, and that's kind of a run rate for a few years beginning next year. That's our best estimate right now. And it was, of course, 0 this quarter.

Leo，這與我們之前所說的非常相似，今年 2023 年非常名義上，我認為可能是 0 到 1000 萬美元。根據目前的商品，如果你展望明年，它可能會比我之前所說的略低一些，大約在 6000 萬美元的範圍內，這是從明年開始的幾年的運行率。這是我們目前最好的估計。當然，這個季度是 0。

And there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Herb Vogel for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給 Herb Vogel 作結束語。

Okay. Thanks, Lisa, and thank you all for your interest, and we look forward to seeing a number of you at the upcoming May and June conferences in Houston and New York. Thank you.

好的。謝謝，麗莎，感謝大家的關注，我們期待在即將於休斯敦和紐約舉行的 5 月和 6 月會議上見到你們中的許多人。謝謝。

And that does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

這確實結束了今天的演講。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。