Sylvamo Corp (SLVM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Sylvamo's first quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, your conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安.感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Sylvamo 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，您的會議正在被錄音。現在我想將電話轉給投資人關係副總裁 Hans Bjorkman。先生，請您發言。

Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Jean-Michel Ribiéras, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Sims, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝，莎拉。早安，感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上的演講者是董事長兼執行長 Jean-Michel Ribiéras 和高級副總裁兼營運長 John Sims。

Slides 2 and 3 contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also present certain non-US GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of those figures to US GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix. Our website also contains copies of the earnings release as well as today's presentation.

第 2 張和第 3 張投影片包含重要訊息，包括某些法律免責聲明。例如，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出受風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述。我們也將提供某些非美國公認會計準則的財務資訊。這些數據與美國 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表可在附錄中找到。我們的網站還包含收益報告以及今天的簡報的副本。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jean-Michel.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給 Jean-Michel。

Thanks, Hans. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. I'll start on slide 4, highlighting some news we announced a few weeks ago. After over three decades of working in the paper and packaging industry, I have decided to retire at the end of the year. Serving as the Chairman and CEO of Sylvamo for the past four years has been one of the greatest highlights of my career.

謝謝，漢斯。早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議。我將從第 4 張投影片開始，重點介紹我們幾週前宣布的一些新聞。在造紙和包裝行業工作了三十多年後，我決定在今年年底退休。過去四年擔任 Sylvamo 董事長兼執行長是我職業生涯中最輝煌的時刻之一。

I'm pleased that John Sims will become the next CEO of Sylvamo. John was elected Chief Operating Officer effective May 1 and will lead our commercial and operational functions. Following my retirement, John will assume the role of the CEO on January 1, 2026. As you know, John has served as the CFO of Sylvamo since the spin-off and has been instrumental in our work to build the world's paper company and drive our company's strong performance.

我很高興約翰·西姆斯將成為 Sylvamo 的下一任執行長。約翰於 5 月 1 日起當選首席營運官，並將領導我們的商業和營運職能。在我退休後，約翰將於 2026 年 1 月 1 日擔任執行長一職。如您所知，約翰自 Sylvamo 分拆以來一直擔任其財務官，在我們打造世界造紙公司和推動公司強勁業績的工作中發揮了重要作用。

Don Devlin was named Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 1, and is with us here for today's call. You'll hear more from Don in future earnings calls. He joins us from International Paper after 27 years with the company. Don has extensive international leadership experience with a track record of building teams, developing strategic plans and delivering results in diverse and challenging environment.

唐·德夫林 (Don Devlin) 被任命為高級副總裁兼首席財務官，該任命自 5 月 1 日起生效，他今天也出席了我們的電話會議。您將在未來的收益電話會議上聽到更多來自唐的消息。他在國際紙業公司工作了 27 年後加入我們。Don 擁有豐富的國際領導經驗，在組建團隊、制定策略計劃和在多元化和充滿挑戰的環境中取得成果方面有著豐富的經驗。

He served in a variety of leadership roles, including Finance Director for European Papers, Chairman and CEO of IP's uncoated freesheet business in India and, most recently, Vice President, Finance and Strategy for IP, Industrial Packaging. I'm excited to have both John and Don in their new leadership roles to drive the company forward for future success.

他曾擔任過多個領導職務，包括歐洲紙業的財務總監、印度 IP 無塗層免費紙張業務的董事長兼首席執行官，以及最近的 IP 工業包裝財務和策略副總裁。我很高興約翰和唐能夠擔任新的領導職務，推動公司取得未來的成功。

Slide 5 shows our first quarter highlights. First, we successfully completed a heavy planned maintenance outage quarter in Europe and North America. Also, these outages were executed well, we run into some separate non-outage-related operational challenges, primarily in North America.

幻燈片 5 展示了我們第一季的亮點。首先，我們成功完成了歐洲和北美大規模計畫維護停機季度。此外，這些停機執行得很好，我們遇到了一些與停機無關的營運挑戰，主要是在北美。

John will talk more about the financial impact in a few slides. We also began implementing the previously communicated uncoated freesheet price increases to customers in Brazil and North America. Lastly, we returned nearly $40 million in cash to shareowners. We distributed $18 million via the first quarter dividend. And as of today, we have repurchased $20 million in shares this year.

約翰將在幾張投影片中詳細討論財務影響。我們也開始向巴西和北美的客戶實施先前傳達的未塗佈免費紙張價格上漲政策。最後，我們向股東返還了近4,000萬美元現金。我們透過第一季股息派發了 1800 萬美元。截至今天，我們今年已回購了價值 2,000 萬美元的股票。

Let's move to the next slide. Slide 6 shows our first quarter key financial metrics. We earned adjusted EBITDA of $90 million with a margin of 11%. In addition to having almost $30 million of planned maintenance outages costs, the first quarter is our weakest demand quarter every year in Latin America. We generated adjusting operating earnings of $0.68 per share.

讓我們看下一張投影片。投影片 6 展示了我們第一季的關鍵財務指標。我們的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 9,000 萬美元，利潤率為 11%。除了近 3000 萬美元的計劃維護停機成本外，第一季也是我們拉丁美洲每年需求最弱的季度。我們實現了每股 0.68 美元的調整後營業收益。

As expected, free cash flow was lower than the fourth quarter due to the timing of year-end payments, onetime cash benefit in the fourth quarter from the monetization of working capital related to the closure of IP Georgetown mill and the payment of annual incentive compensation in the first quarter.

如預期，由於年終付款的時間表、第四季度因關閉 IP Georgetown 工廠而產生的營運資本貨幣化一次性現金收益以及第一季度支付的年度激勵薪酬，自由現金流低於第四季度。

Keep in mind that our free cash flow is heavily weighted to the second half of the year. The last two years, we generated almost 90% of our free cash flow in the second half. Now John will review our performance in more detail.

請記住，我們的自由現金流很大程度上集中在下半年。過去兩年，我們在下半年產生了近 90% 的自由現金流。現在約翰將更詳細地回顧我們的表現。

Thank you, Jean-Michel, and good morning, everyone. I also want to thank Don, who's sitting right next to me. We're in a transition of moving the CFO role quickly over to him and look forward to working in the future with Don. Slide 7 contains our first quarter earnings bridge versus the fourth quarter. The $90 million of adjusted EBITDA was in line with our outlook of $85 million to $105 million.

謝謝你，讓·米歇爾，大家早安。我還要感謝坐在我旁邊的唐。我們正處於將財務長職位迅速移交給他的過渡期，並期待未來與唐的合作。投影片 7 包含我們第一季與第四季的獲利對比。調整後的 EBITDA 為 9,000 萬美元，與我們預期的 8,500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元一致。

As Jean-Michel mentioned, we had some operational issues in North America, which impacted us by roughly -- by $5 million, $10 million . Half from lower sales volume and half from operations and other costs. This also includes less volume from IP's Riverdale mill than was planned.

正如 Jean-Michel 所提到的，我們在北美遇到了一些營運問題，這對我們造成了大約 500 萬美元到 1000 萬美元的影響。一半來自銷售量下降，一半來自營運和其他成本。這也包括 IP 的 Riverdale 工廠的產量低於計劃。

Price and mix was unfavorable by $10 million, driven by the expected seasonally unfavorable mix in Latin America, lower pulp prices and paper price decreases in Europe and in our export regions. These were partially offset by paper price increase realizations in North America and Brazil.

價格和產品組合不利 1000 萬美元，原因是預計拉丁美洲的季節性不利組合、歐洲和我們的出口地區紙漿價格下跌以及紙張價格下降。這些損失被北美和巴西紙張價格上漲所部分抵銷。

Volume decreased by $30 million, driven by the seasonally weakest demand quarter in Latin America, lower North America volume from IP's Georgetown mill exit and the operational challenges in North America. Operations and other costs were unfavorable by $12 million, primarily driven by unfavorable FX plus the North America operational challenges we mentioned earlier.

銷量減少了 3000 萬美元，原因是拉丁美洲季節性需求最弱的季度、IP 喬治敦工廠退出導致的北美銷售下降以及北美的營運挑戰。營運和其他成本損失了 1200 萬美元，主要原因是外匯不利以及我們之前提到的北美營運挑戰。

Planned maintenance outage costs increased by $9 million as we executed major outages at our Saillat and Eastover mills. Input and transportation costs increased by $6 million, primarily driven by seasonally higher energy prices and the longer-than-expected extreme cold weather across the United States in the first quarter.

由於我們在 Saillat 和 Eastover 工廠實施了大規模停工，因此計劃維護停工成本增加了 900 萬美元。投入和運輸成本增加了 600 萬美元，主要原因是第一季能源價格季節性上漲以及美國境內持續時間長於預期的極端寒冷天氣。

Let's move to slide 8. We expect to deliver second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $75 million to $95 million. We project price and mix to be favorable by $5 million to $10 million. This is primarily due to favorable mix in Latin America and North America. We expect volume to be stable. Volume would have been sequentially higher as we have the orders, but anticipate being unable to fill them all during the quarter.

讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片。我們預計第二季調整後的 EBITDA 為 7,500 萬至 9,500 萬美元。我們預計價格和組合將優惠 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。這主要歸功於拉丁美洲和北美的良好組合。我們預計交易量將保持穩定。由於我們收到了訂單，因此訂單量將會連續增加，但預計本季無法完成所有訂單。

This is due to low inventory levels in North America as a result of our operational issues. In addition, we expect to get less volume from IP's Riverdale mill in the quarter. Therefore, some of our orders may get pushed into the third quarter. Operations and other costs are projected to be favorable by $10 million to $15 million due to better operations and seasonally lower operating costs in North America and Europe.

這是由於我們的營運問題導致北美庫存水準較低。此外，我們預計本季 IP 的 Riverdale 工廠的產量將會減少。因此，我們的部分訂單可能會推遲到第三季。由於北美和歐洲營運狀況改善以及季節性營運成本降低，預計營運和其他成本將減少 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

We expect input and transportation costs to improve by $5 million to $10 million, primarily due to energy. Planned maintenance outages are projected to increase by $36 million as we execute the heaviest outage quarter of the year across all three regions.

我們預計投入和運輸成本將改善 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元，主要原因是能源。由於我們正經歷全年三個地區停電最嚴重的季度，因此計劃內維護停電預計將增加 3,600 萬美元。

Let's go to slide 9. This slide illustrates the planned maintenance outage scheduled for the full year. We spent $27 million in the first quarter and expect to spend $63 million in the second quarter. By midyear, we'll have spent over 80% of the total annual planned maintenance outage cost. Unlike last year, we had no major planned maintenance outages in Europe. This year, we have outages in both mills in the first half of the year.

我們來看第 9 張投影片。這張投影片展示了全年規劃的維護停機時間。我們在第一季花費了 2700 萬美元，預計在第二季將花費 6300 萬美元。到年中，我們將花費年度計畫維護停機成本總額的 80% 以上。與去年不同，我們在歐洲沒有發生重大計畫維護停工。今年上半年，我們兩家工廠都出現停產。

Let's move to slide 10. I'll now shift to talk about overall uncoated freesheet conditions across our regions. In Europe, demand is down 7% year-over-year through the first quarter, while imports appear stable. As a reminder, industry supply was reduced by 7% after two uncoated freesheet machines closed late last year.

讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片。現在，我將討論我們各地區未塗佈免費紙張的整體狀況。在歐洲，第一季需求年減 7%，而進口量似乎保持穩定。需要提醒的是，去年年底兩台無塗層免費單張紙機器關閉後，產業供應量減少了 7%。

In Latin America, demand is up 3% year-over-year through the first quarter with most of the increase in Brazil, largely due to strong demand in the publishing segment. In North America, apparent demand is down about 1% year-over-year through the first quarter, driven by higher imports. This brings imports to almost 15% of overall North America supply, which is on the higher end of historical ranges.

在拉丁美洲，第一季的需求年增 3%，其中大部分增幅來自​​巴西，這主要得益於出版領域的強勁需求。在北美，由於進口量增加，第一季表觀需求年減約 1%。這使得進口量達到北美總供應量的近 15%，處於歷史較高水準。

We still believe that real demand will be down about 3% to 4% this year. As another reminder, domestic industry supply was reduced by 10% after a few machines, including IP's Georgetown mill closed in the second half of last year. We have strong order books across our regions and all of our mills are running full.

我們仍認為今年實際需求將下降約3%至4%。再次提醒一下，去年下半年，包括IP喬治敦工廠在內的幾台機器關閉後，國內產業供應減少了10％。我們各地區的訂單量都很大，所有工廠都滿載運轉。

We have more demand than we can supply right now due to our commercial team's success combined with the supply issues we've been dealing with in North America. Consequently, going forward, we're going to take advantage of our global footprint to improve our mix and serve our customers in North America. As a result, we expect to have less exports to noncore markets.

由於我們的商業團隊的成功以及我們在北美一直在處理的供應問題，我們目前的需求超過了我們的供應能力。因此，展望未來，我們將利用我們的全球影響力來改善我們的產品組合併為北美客戶提供服務。因此，我們預計對非核心市場的出口將會減少。

We are not going to give a full year guidance with all the uncertainty. However, we do expect a significantly better adjusted EBITDA performance in the second half. This is due to lower planned maintenance outage expenses, improved commercial results and better operations.

由於存在諸多不確定性，我們不會給予全年的指導。不過，我們確實預期下半年調整後的 EBITDA 表現將會明顯改善。這是由於計劃維護停機費用降低、商業業績改善和營運改善。

Tariff uncertainty aside, we expect 2025 Latin America and North America combined full year adjusted EBITDA to be slightly better than 2024. Europe's 2025 performance will be significantly worse than 2024 due to the $39 million of planned maintenance outage this year and worse market conditions as we're seeing signs of the pulp market weakening.

撇開關稅不確定性不談，我們預計 2025 年拉丁美洲和北美全年調整後 EBITDA 將略好於 2024 年。由於今年計劃的維護停工費用為 3,900 萬美元，而且我們看到紙漿市場疲軟的跡象，市場狀況也變得更糟，因此歐洲 2025 年的表現將明顯差於 2024 年。

Let's go to slide 11. I want to take some time to discuss our European business. As we look back on the Nymolla mill acquisition, the mill generated about $70 million of free cash flow before overhead allocations in its first two years as part of Sylvamo. We exceeded over $20 million run rate synergy target by $5 million. The pulp mill modernization project exceeded its projected benefits as well.

我們來看第 11 張投影片。我想花點時間討論一下我們的歐洲業務。回顧 Nymolla 工廠的收購，我們發現，作為 Sylvamo 的一部分，該工廠在前兩年未扣除管理費用，就產生了約 7000 萬美元的自由現金流。我們超出了 2000 萬美元的運行率協同目標 500 萬美元。紙漿廠現代化工程也超出了其預期的效益。

Unfortunately, compared to 2022, last year, the mill experienced a $41 million increase in wood costs and a cumulative $63 million over the last two years. This increase in wood cost is due to the war with Russia and Belarus stopping the export of wood fiber, reducing overall wood supply to the region.

不幸的是，與 2022 年相比，去年該工廠的木材成本增加了 4,100 萬美元，過去兩年累計增加了 6,300 萬美元。木材成本的上漲是由於與俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的戰爭阻止了木纖維的出口，從而減少了該地區的木材總供應量。

Additionally, high demand from the energy sector in the Nordics increased overall wood demand. Stepping back and looking at our entire European business, our earnings performance is below our expectations. In addition to numerous escalating wood costs, high input costs and challenging industry conditions have impacted demand and pricing.

此外，北歐能源產業的高需求增加了整體木材需求。回顧我們整個歐洲業務，我們的獲利表現低於預期。除了木材成本不斷上漲之外，高投入成本和嚴峻的行業條件也影響了需求和定價。

We're not satisfied with our performance and have installed a new Senior Vice President and General Manager effective May 1, to lead our talented team, further develop our strong customer relationships and improve our performance. We are focusing on reducing costs across the region. We'll be improving our product mix by upgrading some capabilities at Saillat. We are working to reduce wood costs and are targeting best-in-class efficiency at the Nymolla mill.

我們對我們的表現並不滿意，並於 5 月 1 日起任命了新的高級副總裁兼總經理，以領導我們才華橫溢的團隊，進一步發展我們牢固的客戶關係並提高我們的業績。我們正致力於降低整個地區的成本。我們將透過升級 Saillat 的一些功能來改善我們的產品組合。我們正在努力降低木材成本，並力爭 Nymolla 工廠實現一流的效率。

I'll now turn the call back over to Jean-Michel.

我現在將電話轉回給 Jean-Michel。

Thanks, John. I'm now on slide 12. We understand that one of the main risks in today's environment is a global economic slowdown due to the current tariff situation, which could impact uncoated freesheet demand. Some shift in uncoated freesheet and pulp trade flows are already starting to materialize.

謝謝，約翰。我現在在第 12 張投影片。我們瞭解，當今環境下的主要風險之一是當前關稅情勢導致的全球經濟放緩，這可能會影響未塗佈免費紙張的需求。未塗佈免費紙張和紙漿貿易流的一些轉變已經開始實現。

We also anticipate higher risk of inflation on our raw material, transportation and capital spending. While this represent possible challenges, this risk currently appear manageable. Our global sourcing teams are already working on mitigation strategies as well as alternative sourcing options for some raw materials plus optimizing modes of transportation.

我們也預期原物料、運輸和資本支出的通膨風險會更高。雖然這代表著潛在的挑戰，但目前看來這種風險是可以控制的。我們的全球採購團隊已開始研究緩解策略以及某些原料的替代採購方案並優化運輸方式。

Regarding our major capital spending plans for the year the business cases for these projects include the possibility of higher costs, which are not expected to be material at this point.

關於我們今年的主要資本支出計劃，這些項目的商業案例包括成本增加的可能性，但目前預計成本不會增加。

Let's move to slide 13. Although there is a lot of uncertainty around the tariff and the impact on the economy, we are well positioned to manage through this environment. Over 90% of our raw materials are sourced locally with very little coming from China. Regarding our shipments, the majority stay within their respective region.

讓我們翻到第 13 張投影片。儘管關稅及其對經濟的影響存在許多不確定性，但我們已準備好應對這種環境。我們 90% 以上的原料都來自本地，只有極少量來自中國。關於我們的貨物，大多數都留在各自的區域內。

In Europe and North America, more than 90% of our shipment stays within their respective region. Latin America, 80% of our shipments remain in the region. Although we explore about 20% of our products from Latin America, we are well-positioned as our Brazilian mills are some of the world's most competitive and low-cost uncoated freesheet facility.

在歐洲和北美，我們 90% 以上的貨物都留在各自的地區。拉丁美洲，我們 80% 的貨物仍在該地區。儘管我們的產品約有 20% 來自拉丁美洲，但我們仍處於有利地位，因為我們的巴西工廠是世界上最具競爭力和低成本的無塗層免費紙張工廠之一。

Lastly, I want to remind everyone that even though imports tend to rise and fall for a variety of reasons, import historically represents less than 15% of uncoated freesheet industry supply in each of our three regions. Let's move to slide 14. I will take this opportunity to remind everyone of all the work we did to deleverage our balance sheet over the past three years.

最後，我想提醒大家，儘管由於各種原因，進口量往往會上升和下降，但從歷史上看，我們三個地區的進口量只佔未塗佈免費紙張行業供應量的不到 15%。讓我們翻到第 14 張投影片。我要藉此機會提醒大家過去三年我們為去槓桿所做的所有工作。

After launching, we closed to $1.4 million debt -- net debt and a leverage ratio of 2.6 times. We have reduced our debt by about half, and our leverage ratio is now 1.1 times. We have new majority -- major maturity until 2027. Plus, we have availability on our revolver of $400 million.

推出後，我們的債務為 140 萬美元——淨債務和 2.6 倍的槓桿率。我們的債務減少了約一半，槓桿率現在為 1.1 倍。我們有新的多數——主要到期日為 2027 年。此外，我們還有 4 億美元的可用循環信貸額度。

Our strong balance sheet, available cash on hand plus the liability on our revolver provides us with the ability to take care of our customer, run our business and invest in our future. Our capital allocation strategy is to maintain a strong financial position. We invest in our business to improve our competitive advantages and return cash to shareholders.

我們強大的資產負債表、可用的現金以及循環信貸的負債使我們能夠照顧我們的客戶、經營我們的業務並投資我們的未來。我們的資本配置策略是維持強勁的財務狀況。我們投資於我們的業務，以提高我們的競爭優勢並向股東返還現金。

Our position of financial strength allow us to navigate this uncertain environment without changing our thoughtful long-term approach to capital allocation. It allow us to serve customers by navigating economic headwinds. It allow -- also enables us to invest in our business even during times of uncertainty, and it preserves the flexibility to return cash to shareholders. We will continue to evaluate opportunities to repurchase shares at attractive price with a $62 million available on our current share repurchase authorization.

我們的財務實力使我們能夠應對這種不確定的環境，而無需改變我們深思熟慮的長期資本配置方法。它使我們能夠克服經濟逆風來為客戶提供服務。它允許——也使我們能夠即使在不確定的時期也投資於我們的業務，並且它保留了向股東返還現金的靈活性。我們將繼續評估以有吸引力的價格回購股票的機會，我們目前的股票回購授權中有 6,200 萬美元可用。

I'll conclude my remarks on slide 16. All of the work we have done to strengthen our financial position in the past few years is providing us with flexibility. Our financial strength and regional businesses have us well positioned to navigate the current tariff uncertainty.

我將在第 16 張投影片上結束我的演講。過去幾年我們為加強財務狀況所做的所有工作都為我們提供了靈活性。我們的財務實力和區域業務使我們能夠很好地應對當前的關稅不確定性。

We are reinvesting in our business through a great pipeline of high return capital projects, which will enable us to grow our earnings and cash flow in the coming years. Sylvamo is creating shareholder value through strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. And we are in the process of executing a seamless CEO and CFO succession plan as we prepare for my retirement at the end of the year. We are confident in our future and motivated by the opportunities that lie ahead.

我們正在透過一系列高回報資本項目對我們的業務進行再投資，這將使我們能夠在未來幾年增加收益和現金流。Sylvamo 透過強勁的現金創造能力和嚴格的資本配置創造股東價值。我們正在執行無縫的執行長和財務長繼任計劃，為我今年年底退休做準備。我們對未來充滿信心，並對未來的機會充滿動力。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Hans.

說完這些，我就把電話轉回給漢斯。

Thanks, Jean-Michel, and thank you, John. Okay, Sarah, we're ready to take questions.

謝謝，Jean-Michel，也謝謝你，John。好的，莎拉，我們準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) George Staphos, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Jean-Michel, John and Don, congratulations. Yes, and all the best in the next chapters. And Jean-Michel, thanks for all the help, obviously, and you're not retiring yet, but thanks for all the help with our research for everybody on this call since you're in public. I guess the question I had, I didn't really follow what the operational issues were. If you could give us a bit more detail in terms of what happened.

恭喜 Jean-Michel、John 和 Don。是的，祝接下來的章節一切順利。還有 Jean-Michel，感謝你提供的所有幫助，顯然，你還沒有退休，但感謝你在公開場合為這次電話會議中的每個人提供的研究幫助。我想我所問的問題是，我並沒有真正弄清楚操作問題是什麼。如果您能向我們詳細介紹一下發生的事情。

And then I know you're not guiding on third quarter, but you mentioned you won't be in a position to recover some of the orders in 2Q. It sounds like some of that might be pushed into 3Q. Is there a way for you to size what that benefit might be as you recapture some of those orders particularly as regards seasonality, Brazil typically picks up to the third quarter as well.

然後我知道您沒有對第三季做出預測，但您提到您將無法在第二季恢復部分訂單。聽起來其中一些可能會被推遲到第三季。當您重新獲得部分訂單時，您是否有辦法衡量這種好處有多大，特別是就季節性而言，巴西的訂單通常也會在第三季回升。

Yes, George, and thank you. The issues we had with the after multiple reliability issues, both at our Ticonderoga mill and our Eastover mill, a majority of that is behind us. We do have one issue that's in our mid and so it makes it hard to troubleshoot on one paper machine at Eastover. That actually is in our outlook in the second quarter. And we think we're going to have that resolved. We should have that result by this quarter.

是的，喬治，謝謝你。我們在提康德羅加工廠和伊斯特奧弗工廠遇到的多個可靠性問題大部分都已經解決了。我們確實遇到了一個問題，因此很難對 Eastover 的一台造紙機進行故障排除。這實際上是我們對第二季度的展望。我們認為我們會解決這個問題。我們應該在本季得到這個結果。

The other thing I'll make a point about is the impact of the Riverdale volume because that doesn't show up in the operations, but it's certainly showing up in the volume. I mean, in fact, they've obviously been having some runability issues themselves, and it really started in the fourth quarter, translated into when it continued into the first and it's also continuing into the second quarter. That in itself is in about almost 30% of what they should be supplying us we haven't been getting.

我要強調的另一件事是 Riverdale 產量的影響，因為產量的影響不會體現在營運中，但肯定會體現在產量上。我的意思是，事實上，他們自己顯然也遇到了一些運行問題，而這個問題實際上始於第四季度，並持續到第一季度，而且還持續到第二季​​度。這本身就相當於他們應該提供給我們的 30% 的東西我們還沒有得到。

So you can see it actually kind of build up. In the first quarter, we said the impact of all these issues was roughly about $10 million. I would say that the Riverdale conditions also are continuing into the second quarter. And some of that is in our outlook. But if you're trying to get to a number of what would the improvement be in the third quarter, something a little bit less than $10 million. George, that will show up in both ops and volume.

所以你可以看到它實際上是一種累積。在第一季度，我們表示所有這些問題的影響約為 1000 萬美元。我想說的是，Riverdale 的情況也將持續到第二季​​。其中有些已經體現在我們的觀點中。但如果你想知道第三季的改善幅度是多少，答案是略低於 1000 萬美元。喬治，這將體現在操作和音量上。

Okay. And the related question that I had there was just in general, can you remind us then seasonally what goes well, third quarter versus 2Q. As we recall, LATAM volumes pick up. Is there a way to size that for us? I know you're not guiding on 3Q, but as we're trying to build out our bridges or refine them.

好的。我當時提出的相關問題是，整體而言，您能否提醒我們，從季節性角度來看，第三季與第二季相比哪些表現良好？我們記得，LATAM 的交易量正在回升。有沒有什麼方法可以幫我們確定這個尺寸？我知道您沒有指導 3Q，但我們正在嘗試建立或完善我們的橋樑。

Yes, George, the best thing I would do is look at what we've done historically. And we break it down by region, and we don't see much difference in that.

是的，喬治，我能做的最好的事情就是回顧我們過去所做的事情。我們按地區進行細分，並沒有發現太大的差異。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示） Matthew McKellar，RBC 資本市場。

Jean-Michel, congratulations on your upcoming retirement and congratulations also to John and Don for their appointments.

Jean-Michel，恭喜您即將退休，也恭喜 John 和 Don 獲得任命。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，馬特。

I'd like to start by asking just around the changes at Saillat and Nymolla. Could you tell us just a bit more about what the upgrades to your capabilities at Saillat entail and the market opportunity that's leading you to reposition your product mix, but you whether that's entirely serving demand in North America or if there's anything else going on there?

我想先詢問一下 Saillat 和 Nymolla 的變化。您能否向我們詳細介紹 Saillat 產能升級的具體內容，以及促使您重新定位產品組合的市場機遇，您能否說明這是否完全是為了滿足北美的需求，還是還有其他原因？

And then at Nymolla, what levers do you have to reduce your wood costs and improve efficiency? And as we kind of think about putting this all together how would you have us think about how financially meaningful these changes could be and over what time line?

那麼在 Nymolla，你們有什麼手段來降低木材成本並提高效率？當我們考慮將所有這些結合起來時，您希望我們如何考慮這些變化在財務上有多大意義以及在什麼時間範圍內？

Matt, so in Saillat to answer your first question, we've invested on the new and revised winder. This is going giving us the capability to sell roles in Saillat in interesting segments, more specialty rolls segments in Europe. We are quite a different position. I don't know if you got that in mind. In Nymolla, we sell 50% of our business in roles, and we are very successful and 50% in cutsize.

馬特，在 Saillat 回答你的第一個問題，我們已經投資了新的和改進的捲繞機。這將使我們有能力在 Saillat 的有趣領域、歐洲的更多專業領域中銷售角色。我們的立場截然不同。我不知道你是否想到了這一點。在 Nymolla，我們 50% 的業務是按角色出售的，而且我們非常成功，50% 的業務是按規模出售的。

In Saillat today, we sell 90% in cutsize and only roughly 10% of growth. This is going to give us a capability to sell much more rules and enter into the specialty segment. So I hope I'm answering your first question. On Europe, in general, in Nymolla, we have great opportunities in operations.

如今，在賽拉特，我們銷售的 90% 都是切塊尺寸的，只有大約 10% 是成長期的。這將使我們有能力銷售更多的規則並進入專業領域。所以我希望我能回答你的第一個問題。總體而言，在歐洲，在 Nymolla，我們在營運方面擁有巨大的機會。

We don't run Nymolla mill at the same bench, OEE or if you want cost performance that we run the other mills. We've done some investments in capital, but also in people. And we're continuing to do that. And that gives you quite a lot of cost opportunities to improve Nymolla. And in Saillat, it's mostly mix and also looking at our fixed costs mostly.

我們不會在相同的工作台、OEE 或如果您想要成本效益，我們會運行其他工廠的 Nymolla 工廠。我們在資本方面進行了一些投資，但也在人才方面進行了一些投資。我們將繼續這樣做。這為您提供了大量的成本機會來改進 Nymolla。在 Saillat，我們主要採用混合方式，並且主要關注固定成本。

Yes. And I'll just add to that, Matthew, you asked about the leverage that we have in reducing the wood costs. So when we purchased the Nymolla mill, it was an agreement that we would continue to source the wood from a company that's owned by a store. One of the options we have is to go that directly right to the land owners, which cuts out some of the costs around that.

是的。我還要補充一點，馬修，你問了我們在降低木材成本方面的槓桿作用。因此，當我們購買 Nymolla 工廠時，我們達成了一項協議，即我們將繼續從一家商店旗下的公司購買木材。我們的選擇之一是直接向土地所有者提出要求，這可以減少一些相關成本。

The other opportunity we have is actually importing in the lower cost wood. And then there's operational improvements where we increased the yield and reduce the consumption of wood going forward. There are some of the levers that we're pulling. In terms of the levers, how much we're targeting for is we're looking at and targeting at least a 10% reduction.

我們的另一個機會實際上是進口成本較低的木材。然後我們進行了營運改進，提高了產量並減少了木材的消耗。我們正在採取一些措施。就槓桿而言，我們的目標是減少至少 10%。

I think, Matt, you asked also a question on Europe profitability in general. And as we mentioned, we're clearly not satisfied we are clearly expecting a significant improvement in 2026 and now building programs to be back to cost of capital in 2027. So that's the plan we have as of today.

馬特，我認為你也問了一個關於歐洲整體獲利能力的問題。正如我們所提到的，我們顯然並不滿意，我們顯然預計 2026 年會有顯著改善，並且現在建設計劃將在 2027 年回到資本成本水準。這就是我們今天的計劃。

That's helpful. Last one for me. There is a comment that some shifts in uncoated freesheet and pulp trade flows are already starting to materialize. Could you just elaborate on what you're seeing and kind of how that's affecting you by markets?

這很有幫助。對我來說是最後一個。有評論稱，未塗佈免費紙張和紙漿貿易流的一些轉變已經開始實現。您能否詳細說明您所看到的情況以及這對市場有何影響？

Yes, I'll take that one. The -- this is -- what makes it difficult around trying to assess the impact of tariffs because some of it is probably the most impactful to us to potentially be the secondary effects of the negotiations that are ongoing and give you some examples that we've seen -- like we talked about increased imports into the US. Some of that, we believe, could be due to prebuying or getting ahead of the tariffs in North America as an example.

是的，我要那個。這就是試圖評估關稅影響的困難之處，因為其中一些對我們影響最大的可能是正在進行的談判的次要影響，並給你一些我們看到的例子——比如我們談到的美國進口增加。我們認為，部分原因可能是由於預購或搶在北美關稅之前購買。

We also have seen in Europe, just reported this month by Fastmarkets so we see that pulp prices decreased almost EUR40 a tonne on BEK coming out of Brazil, and that's really driven because of the significant decrease in pulp demand in China. And then that's coming over to Europe. So that's some of the impacts that we're seeing as a result of this tariff situation here in the US.

我們也看到歐洲的情況，根據 Fastmarkets 本月報道，巴西生產的 BEK 紙漿價格每噸下跌了近 40 歐元，這實際上是由於中國紙漿需求大幅下降所致。然後它就傳到了歐洲。這就是我們看到的美國關稅情勢帶來的一些影響。

Daniel Harriman, Sidoti.

丹尼爾·哈里曼，西多蒂。

I echo the congratulations given by Matt and George. I had a question about your capital spending for the balance of the year. If we look at what you spent in the first quarter, that run rate won't get you to your guidance of $220 million to $240 million for the year.

我贊同馬特和喬治的祝賀。我對您今年剩餘時間的資本支出有一個疑問。如果我們看看您在第一季的支出，這個運行率不會讓您達到全年 2.2 億至 2.4 億美元的預期。

So I'm just curious how we should think about that over the last three quarters, understanding that you don't guide to cash flow, but just trying to get a sense of what we should be looking for the last 9 months?

所以我只是好奇我們應該如何看待過去三個季度的情況，我知道您不會指導現金流，只是想了解我們應該在過去 9 個月尋找什麼？

Daniel, we do -- we haven't changed the revision on full year capital. And whereas most of our outages in the first half of the year, the second half will be somewhat influenced by the large capital projects we have associated with Eastover both the speed up and the new sheeter. So the full year guidance will still be $220 million to $240 million.

丹尼爾，我們確實沒有改變全年資本的修訂。儘管我們的大部分停工都發生在上半年，但下半年將在一定程度上受到我們與 Eastover 相關的大型資本項目（包括提速和新的壓片機）的影響。因此全年預期仍為 2.2 億至 2.4 億美元。

Daniel, Jean-Michel. I would just maybe add something. I think when you look at free cash flow, and we've had, I would call it, the issue last year and the one before, we are very strongly second half of the year cash flow. Our two last years were 90% of our cash flow the last two quarters of the year. We expect about the same this year.

丹尼爾，讓-米歇爾。我可能只想補充一些內容。我認為，當你查看自由現金流時，我們會遇到，我稱之為去年和前年的問題，我們下半年的現金流非常強勁。我們過去兩年的現金流的 90% 都集中在最後兩個季度。我們預計今年的情況也大致相同。

So I know sometimes in your modeling, it's a little bit difficult to do, but this is what we've seen historically speaking, you've got it in our appendix slides, and we expect about the same thing this year. So a very significant increase in cash flow for the second half of the year.

所以我知道有時在你的建模中，這有點難以做到，但這是我們從歷史上看到的，你已經在我們的附錄幻燈片中看到了，我們預計今年也會發生同樣的事情。因此下半年的現金流將顯著增加。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

John, Jean-Michel, Don you mentioned on one of the slides that you think the North American demand is down 1%, but that is I guess, if you will, higher than underlying demand because it reflects imports. So I guess two parts, imports, you think are going into inventory right now and prebuying, putting that comment together with another one you just made, that will be, I guess, something that has to be absorbed and being overhang for a little while?

約翰、讓-米歇爾、唐，你們在其中一張投影片上提到，你們認為北美需求下降了 1%，但我想，如果你們願意的話，這高於潛在需求，因為它反映了進口。所以我想您認為現在有兩個部分，進口，正在進入庫存並進行預購，將這個評論與您剛才提出的另一個評論放在一起，我想這將是一些需要吸收並懸而未決的事情？

And then I think you said, overall, you think demand is 3% to 4% on an underlying basis. Is that what your expectation will be for industry shipments over the rest of the year? And how would those figures map? When do you think they should ultimately align the demand versus shipments in 3Q, 4Q and the like? I'll turn it over there.

然後我想您說過，總體而言，您認為需求在基本基礎上是 3% 到 4%。這就是您對今年剩餘時間產業出貨量的預期嗎？那麼這些數字將如何映射？您認為他們應該在什麼時候最終使需求與第三季、第四季等的出貨量保持一致？我把它轉到那邊。

Yes. So the comment there was the apparent demand and we called out the word apparent because it's calculated when you looked at domestic shipments plus imports exports. And that's being reported is down negative 1%, but we believe that underlying demand is really down 3% to 4% to the point you just -- you made, George, because you count the imports as soon as they hit the port.

是的。因此，那裡的評論是明顯的需求，我們之所以提到「明顯」這個詞，是因為它是根據國內出貨量加上進口出口量來計算的。據報道，這一數字下降了-1%，但我們認為，潛在需求實際上下降了3%至4%，喬治，你剛才這麼說是因為你一到港口就計算進口量。

And typically, that -- and there was a large surge of imports, particularly in January in the first quarter, and so we think that, that has made demand look stronger than it actually is.

通常情況下，進口量會大幅增加，尤其是在第一季的一月份，因此我們認為，這使得需求看起來比實際情況更強勁。

But yes, it's in inventory, and that will be probably consumed going forward. If you look at the numbers, it's only -- I think it's reported, but February numbers, import numbers were a little bit, I guess, not full, but they were lower than January. So we think some of this is due to just the timing of the imports coming in like the first quarter demand maybe looks stronger than what we actually see.

但是是的，它有庫存，並且很可能會被消耗掉。如果你看一下這些數字，我認為這只是報告的數字，但二月份的數字，進口數字有點，我想，不是完整的，但它們低於一月份的數字。因此，我們認為部分原因是由於進口的時間安排，例如第一季的需求可能看起來比我們實際看到的要強勁。

And when do you think -- go ahead, jean, I'm sorry.

你什麼時候認為——繼續吧，珍，對不起。

No, that was Jean-Michel, sorry. I just wanted to integrate when we look in terms of demand, especially for Sylvamo I'm taking our order flow, not only because we've had some issues in the mills, but in general, the demand we're seeing with our customers is strong. We are full.

不，那是 Jean-Michel，抱歉。我只是想在考慮需求時進行整合，特別是對於 Sylvamo，我正在考慮我們的訂單流，這不僅是因為我們在工廠遇到了一些問題，而且總的來說，我們看到的客戶需求很強勁。我們已經吃飽了。

Yes, I think you were asking about the costing shipment, George. So my comment on this there was some capacity that closed last year. So domestic -- just that in itself would lower domestic shipments. And then there was a mill that was recently announced that may be setting down at the end of this year. But -- so we would expect domestic shipments to be down just because of the capacity closures, but as Jean-Michel said, operating rates are in the mid -- low 90s domestically.

是的，喬治，我想您問的是裝運成本。所以我對此的評論是，去年有一些產能被關閉了。因此，國內－僅此一點就會降低國內出貨量。最近有消息稱，一家工廠可能將於今年底投產。但是 - 因此我們預計國內出貨量會因為產能關閉而下降，但正如 Jean-Michel 所說，國內的營運率處於 90 年代中期至低期。

Very good. Another question I had, and I'll turn it over, actually. So the operational issues, thank you for going through those earlier, do they affect at all the progress on Eastover with your bigger projects? And if you can just give us a quick update on how that's going.

非常好。實際上，我還有另一個問題，我會把它翻過來。所以關於營運問題，感謝您之前討論這些問題，這些問題是否會影響您在 Eastover 的大型專案的進度？您能否簡單向我們介紹一下事情的進展？

No, they do not. Just to be frank with you. They did not impact that. And actually, those projects are going well from a timing perspective. So we're still seeing startup next year on that. It's on schedule, on time. No impact there.

不，他們沒有。只是想坦白告訴你。它們並沒有影響這一點。實際上，從時間角度來看，這些專案進展順利。因此我們仍然預計明年該領域將會出現新起步。一切按計劃進行，準時。那裡沒有影響。

(Operator Instructions) I'll now turn the call back over to Hans Bjorkman for closing comments.

（操作員指示）現在我將把電話轉回給 Hans Bjorkman 進行結束語。

All right. Thank you, everybody, for joining our call today. We appreciate your interest in Sylvamo, and we look forward to continued conversations in the coming weeks. Thank you very much.

好的。感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。感謝您對 Sylvamo 的關注，我們期待在接下來的幾週內繼續對話。非常感謝。

Thank you, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Once again, we would like to thank you for participating in Sylvamo's first quarter 2025 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

再次感謝您參加 Sylvamo 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。