Sylvamo Corp (SLVM) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Sylvamo's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, your conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

早上好。謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Sylvamo 的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，您的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Hans Bjorkman。先生，地板是你的。

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today. Our speakers this morning are Jean-Michel Ribiéras, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Sims, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，格雷格。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。今天上午我們的發言人是董事長兼首席執行官讓-米歇爾·裡比埃拉斯 (Jean-Michel Ribiéras)；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 John Sims。

Slides 2 and 3 contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also present certain non-U.S. GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of those figures to U.S. GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix. Our website also contains copies of the first quarter earnings press release as well as today's presentation.

幻燈片 2 和 3 包含重要信息，包括某些法律免責聲明。例如，在本次電話會議期間，我們將做出受風險和不確定因素影響的前瞻性陳述。我們還將提供某些非美國公認會計原則的財務信息。附錄中提供了這些數字與美國公認會計原則財務措施的調節。我們的網站還包含第一季度收益新聞稿以及今天的演示文稿的副本。

With that, I'll turn the call over to you, Jean-Michel.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給你，Jean-Michel。

Thanks, Hans. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. I'll begin my comments on Slide 4. Our first quarter results were strong and in line with our expectation. Adjusted operating earnings per share were $2.51 and we achieved $208 million in adjusted EBITDA with a 22% margin. We maintained a strong financial position with net debt at 1.1x adjusted EBITDA. Price and mix as well as input transportation costs were favorable to our outlook. Our volume reflected continued inventory destocking and the worse than expected seasonal demand slowdown in Latin America.

謝謝，漢斯。早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。我將從幻燈片 4 開始發表評論。我們第一季度的業績非常強勁，符合我們的預期。調整後的每股營業收入為 2.51 美元，我們實現了 2.08 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，利潤率為 22%。我們保持了強勁的財務狀況，淨債務為調整後 EBITDA 的 1.1 倍。價格和組合以及輸入運輸成本有利於我們的前景。我們的成交量反映了持續的庫存去庫存和拉丁美洲比預期更糟糕的季節性需求放緩。

Our recently acquired Nymolla mill posted a strong quarter. The ramp-up of cost savings from the recent port mill modernization are on schedule. We are also pleased with our progress on other operational and commercial synergies. We returned $21 million in dividends and share repurchases to share owners in the first quarter.

我們最近收購的 Nymolla 工廠發布了強勁的季度業績。最近的港口工廠現代化改造帶來的成本節約正在如期進行。我們也對我們在其他運營和商業協同效應方面取得的進展感到高興。我們在第一季度向股東返還了 2100 萬美元的股息和股票回購。

I am now on Slide 5. We remain committed to operating as a sustainable corporation that creates profits for its shareowners while protecting the environment and improving the life of those with whom we interact. With that in mind, since the spinoff, we've been pursuing the formal approval of our 2030 goals for greenhouse gas emissions. We are pleased to announce that we received formal approval of our 2030 emission reduction goals from the science-based target initiative.

我現在在幻燈片 5 上。我們仍然致力於作為一家可持續發展的公司運營，為股東創造利潤，同時保護環境並改善與我們互動的人們的生活。考慮到這一點，自分拆以來，我們一直在尋求正式批准我們的 2030 年溫室氣體排放目標。我們很高興地宣布，我們的 2030 年減排目標已獲得科學減排倡議的正式批准。

SBTI acknowledge that our commitment to reduce our absolute Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by about 28% is consistent with a well below 2-degree scenario. As the slide shows, our own goal is even more ambitious. We're committed to a 35% reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions related to our 2019 baseline.

SBTI 承認，我們承諾將範圍 1、範圍 2 和範圍 3 的絕對排放量減少約 28%，這與遠低於 2 度的情景是一致的。正如幻燈片所示，我們自己的目標更加雄心勃勃。我們承諾將與 2019 年基準相關的溫室氣體排放總量減少 35%。

Slide 6 highlights our key performance metrics for the first quarter. We achieved sales of $959 million, up 3% versus the fourth quarter. We generated adjusted EBITDA of $208 million, up more than 20% versus the fourth quarter. As expected, free cash flow was lower than the fourth quarter, reflecting an increase in mill inventories in preparation for our second quarter planned maintenance outages and the payment of annual incentive compensation. And we posted adjusted operating earnings of $2.51 per share, an 87% increase over the last year's first quarter. The strong performances demonstrate our ability to continue to deliver on our investment thesis.

幻燈片 6 重點介紹了我們第一季度的關鍵績效指標。我們實現了 9.59 億美元的銷售額，比第四季度增長 3%。我們產生了 2.08 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，比第四季度增長了 20% 以上。正如預期的那樣，自由現金流低於第四季度，反映出工廠庫存增加，為我們第二季度計劃的維修停機和支付年度激勵補償做準備。我們公佈的調整後運營收益為每股 2.51 美元，比去年第一季度增長 87%。強勁的表現表明我們有能力繼續實現我們的投資理念。

Now John will discuss our first quarter performance in more detail. John?

現在約翰將更詳細地討論我們第一季度的業績。約翰？

Thank you, Jean-Michel. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Let's turn to Slide 7 to review our first quarter adjusted EBITDA bridge. As Jean-Michel mentioned, we posted a solid quarter, generating $208 million in EBITDA, up $38 million versus the fourth quarter and in line with our guidance. Our EBITDA margin was strong also at 22%, 400 basis points better than the fourth quarter. Price and mix decreased by $8 million, driven by lower market pulp prices in all regions, which accounted for the majority of the decrease.

謝謝你，讓-米歇爾。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。讓我們轉到幻燈片 7 來回顧我們第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 橋。正如 Jean-Michel 所提到的，我們發布了一個穩定的季度，產生了 2.08 億美元的 EBITDA，比第四季度增加了 3800 萬美元，符合我們的指導。我們的 EBITDA 利潤率也很強勁，達到 22%，比第四季度高出 400 個基點。價格和組合減少了 800 萬美元，這是由於所有地區的市場紙漿價格較低，佔減少的大部分。

In Europe, we reduced our paper prices as we rolled back [Saillat] energy surcharge announced in the fourth quarter. Paper price and mix was stable in the Americas. Volume decreased by $34 million. In addition to the normal seasonal slowdown in Latin America, orders for the Brazilian government textbook program were delayed beyond the first quarter. Volumes in Europe and North America continue to be impacted by channel inventory corrections, particularly in the commercial printing segment.

在歐洲，我們降低了紙張價格，因為我們取消了第四季度宣布的 [Saillat] 能源附加費。美洲的紙張價格和結構穩定。銷量減少了 3400 萬美元。除了拉丁美洲正常的季節性放緩外，巴西政府教科書計劃的訂單也被推遲到第一季度之後。歐洲和北美的銷量繼續受到渠道庫存調整的影響，尤其是在商業印刷領域。

Operations and costs improved by $18 million, primarily due to lower accruals for the annual incentive compensation and favorable foreign exchange in Brazil. The ops and cost improvements occurred despite taking about 60,000 tons of lack of order downtime in response to our customers' inventory adjustment. About half of the lack of order downtime was taken in Europe and the other half in North America. We did not conduct any planned maintenance outages in the first quarter, which resulted in a $31 million favorable variance. Input and transportation costs improved by $14 million, reflecting favorable energy and distribution cost trends. And lastly, our Newland mill added $17 million of adjusted EBITDA and is performing very well since we closed on the acquisition at the beginning of the year.

運營和成本減少了 1800 萬美元，這主要是由於年度激勵薪酬的應計費用減少以及巴西的有利外匯。儘管為響應客戶的庫存調整而導致約 60,000 噸訂單停機，但運營和成本仍有所改善。大約一半的缺單停機時間發生在歐洲，另一半發生在北美。我們在第一季度沒有進行任何計劃內的維護中斷，這導致了 3100 萬美元的有利差異。輸入和運輸成本減少了 1400 萬美元，反映出有利的能源和分銷成本趨勢。最後，我們的 Newland 工廠增加了 1700 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，並且自從我們在年初完成收購以來表現非常好。

Let's move to Slide 8 and talk about the uncoated freesheet industry conditions. In the first quarter, significant inventory destocking continued in all regions, resulting in lower shipments in Europe and North America. We expect inventory corrections to continue in the second quarter and be completed in the third quarter. With respect to demand, the first quarter is always the seasonally weakest quarter in Latin America. Demand was also adversely impacted by delay in the annual Brazilian government textbook program. This was a material shift since the Education segment accounts for about 1/3 of Brazil uncoated freesheet demand.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 並討論未塗佈的免費紙張行業狀況。第一季度，所有地區繼續進行大量庫存去庫存，導致歐洲和北美的出貨量下降。我們預計庫存調整將在二季度繼續，並在三季度完成。在需求方面，第一季度始終是拉丁美洲季節性最弱的季度。巴西政府年度教科書計劃的延遲也對需求產生不利影響。這是一個重大轉變，因為教育部門約佔巴西無塗層免費印張需求的 1/3。

These orders have started in the second quarter. The cut size segment, which accounts for about 40% of the uncoated freesheet market in North America has been the most resilient segment of uncoated freesheet over the last few quarters as demand has increased with more workers returning to the office. The cut size segment didn't see an increase in inventories in North America, so there's no need to destock.

這些訂單從第二季度開始。切割尺寸部分約佔北美無塗層免費紙市場的 40%，在過去幾個季度中一直是無塗層免費紙中最具彈性的部分，因為隨著更多工人返回辦公室，需求增加。切割尺寸部分在北美沒有看到庫存增加，因此沒有必要去庫存。

As we expected, uncoated freesheet imports receded to more normal levels after peaking last October. We anticipate second quarter imports to return to normal levels, driven by the adequate domestic supply and the reopening of the Chinese economy. In the first quarter, 2 competitors has announced permanent uncoated freesheet capacity shutdown. In North America, a 240,000 ton in North America was shut down in North Carolina was shut down. And in Europe, a machine in Austria will be shut down as well. We expect these capacity reductions to favorably impact operating rates. And in North America, we have already secured more than 60,000 incremental tons on an annual basis.

正如我們預期的那樣，未塗佈的免費紙張進口量在去年 10 月達到頂峰後回落至更正常的水平。我們預計在國內供應充足和中國經濟重新開放的推動下，第二季度進口將恢復正常水平。在第一季度，2 家競爭對手宣布永久性關閉未塗層的自由紙張產能。在北美，北卡羅來納州停產了24萬噸。在歐洲，奧地利的一台機器也將被關閉。我們預計這些產能削減將對開工率產生有利影響。在北美，我們每年已經獲得超過 60,000 噸增量。

Let's go to Slide 9 to look at imports into Europe and North America. Driven by domestic supply shortages in the first half of 2022 and lower Chinese demand due to the COVID lockdown, Indonesian exports were diverted from China into our regions and increased steadily until peaking in October of 2022. As we mentioned last quarter, we expected that imports had already peaked and would return to more normal levels. And as you can see from the chart, imports have dropped by about half in Europe and 2/3 in North America on our back to normal levels.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 查看歐洲和北美的進口情況。受 2022 年上半年國內供應短缺和 COVID 封鎖導致中國需求下降的推動，印度尼西亞的出口從中國轉移到我們的地區並穩步增長，直到 2022 年 10 月達到頂峰。正如我們上個季度提到的，我們預計進口已經達到頂峰並將恢復到更正常的水平。正如您從圖表中看到的那樣，在我們恢復正常水平後，歐洲的進口下降了約一半，北美下降了 2/3。

Moving to Slide 10, let's discuss our second quarter outlook. We expect to deliver an adjusted EBITDA of $115 million to $125 million, which reflects a $59 million increase in planned maintenance outage expense this quarter. We project price and mix decreased by $45 million to $50 million, reflecting the realization of prior price decreases for pulp in all regions and paper in Europe as well as less favorable product mix. Keep in mind that pulp accounts for 10% of our sales on average 100,000 tons per quarter.

轉到幻燈片 10，讓我們討論我們的第二季度展望。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.15 億美元至 1.25 億美元，這反映出本季度計劃維護停運費用增加了 5900 萬美元。我們預計價格和組合將下降 4500 萬美元至 5000 萬美元，反映出所有地區的紙漿和歐洲紙張的先前價格下降以及不太有利的產品組合。請記住，紙漿占我們銷售額的 10%，平均每季度 100,000 噸。

We expect volume to improve by $10 million to $15 million, reflecting seasonally stronger volume in Latin America. We project operations and costs to increase by $10 million to $15 million due to unabsorbed fit costs as we continue to match supply to our customers' needs. We expect input and transportation costs to improve by $15 million to $20 million, largely on favorable trends in cost for natural gas, chemicals and transportation. Our adjusted operating earnings should be about $0.90 to $1.10 per share, including about $1 per share of higher planned outage expense.

我們預計銷量將增加 1000 萬美元至 1500 萬美元，反映出拉丁美洲的季節性銷量增加。由於我們繼續根據客戶的需求匹配供應，因此由於未吸收的安裝成本，我們預計運營和成本將增加 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元。我們預計投入和運輸成本將減少 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元，這主要是由於天然氣、化學品和運輸成本的有利趨勢。我們調整後的營業收入應約為每股 0.90 美元至 1.10 美元，其中包括每股約 1 美元的更高計劃停機費用。

Slide 11 shows our planned maintenance outage schedule for the quarter, with 2/3 of the total annual cost scheduled for the second quarter. During this quarter, we'll conduct outages in all 3 regions. After this quarter's remaining planned outage expenses will largely occur in the fourth quarter.

幻燈片 11 顯示了我們計劃的本季度維護停機時間表，其中 2/3 的年度總成本計劃在第二季度進行。在本季度，我們將在所有 3 個地區進行停電。本季度之後剩餘的計劃停電費用將主要發生在第四季度。

I'm on Slide 12, which shows again our capital allocation framework and how we think about allocating cash to drive shareowner value. As we maintain our much stronger financial position with about $1 billion of gross debt, we are putting a greater emphasis on returning cash to shareholders and reinvesting in our business to grow our earnings and generate cash. We remain a cash flow story. We leverage our strengths to drive high returns on invested capital and generate free cash flow. And we use that cash to increase shareholder value by maintaining our strong financial position, returning more cash to shareholders and reinvesting in our business.

我在幻燈片 12 上，它再次顯示了我們的資本分配框架以及我們如何考慮分配現金來推動股東價值。由於我們以約 10 億美元的總債務保持更強勁的財務狀況，因此我們更加重視向股東返還現金和對我們的業務進行再投資以增加我們的收益和產生現金。我們仍然是一個現金流故事。我們利用我們的優勢推動投資資本的高回報並產生自由現金流。我們利用這些現金通過維持穩健的財務狀況、向股東返還更多現金以及對我們的業務進行再投資來增加股東價值。

Let's flip to Slide 13 to review what we have done to enable us to increase the limits on cash returns to shareholders. In March, we repurchased $360 million of our outstanding notes in order to eliminate the covenant that limited cash returns to $90 million per year. We replaced these notes with a new $300 million term loan A and short-term debt. This also allowed us to reduce our interest expense on $300 million of debt from 7% to 6%, and we locked this rate in by executing 5-year interest rate swaps. The last step to increasing the limits on cash returns is to address the credit agreement covenant that restricts annual cash returns to $90 million. When we approach that limit later this year, we expect the deposit $60 million into an SAC account and maintain $225 million in liquidity. These actions will enable us to return more than $90 million, returning more cash to our shareowners remains a priority.

讓我們翻到幻燈片 13，回顧一下我們為提高股東現金回報限制所做的工作。 3 月，我們回購了 3.6 億美元的未償還票據，以取消將現金回報限制在每年 9000 萬美元的契約。我們用新的 3 億美元定期貸款 A 和短期債務取代了這些票據。這也使我們能夠將 3 億美元債務的利息支出從 7% 減少到 6%，並且我們通過執行 5 年期利率掉期來鎖定這一利率。提高現金回報限額的最後一步是解決將年度現金回報限制在 9000 萬美元的信貸協議契約。當我們在今年晚些時候接近該限額時，我們預計將向 SAC 賬戶存入 6000 萬美元，並保持 2.25 億美元的流動性。這些行動將使我們能夠返還超過 9000 萬美元，向股東返還更多現金仍然是當務之急。

I'll wrap up my comments on Slide 14. We are also reinvesting in our assets to strengthen our business. This year, we plan to invest $175 million to $190 million of nondiscretionary capital. We are committed to ensuring safe operations in compliance with all laws and regulations, and we need to ensure reliable operations to remain the supplier of choice to our customers. In order to remain an investment of choice, we need to maintain our low-cost position and ensure availability of low-cost fiber in Brazil.

我將總結我對幻燈片 14 的評論。我們還在對我們的資產進行再投資以加強我們的業務。今年，我們計劃投資 1.75 億至 1.9 億美元的非全權資本。我們致力於確保安全運營符合所有法律法規，我們需要確保可靠的運營才能繼續成為客戶的首選供應商。為了保持投資選擇，我們需要保持我們的低成本地位並確保在巴西提供低成本光纖。

We also expect to invest $35 million to $45 million in cost reduction and strategic capital at our flagship mills to improve our low-cost position and ensure the long-term competitiveness mills. This slide shows 2 examples of attractive cost reduction projects, one in Eastover to reduce chemical consumption and one at Luis Antonio to increase energy efficiency. Both projects are forecast to generate internal rate of returns over 20%.

我們還預計將在我們的旗艦工廠投資 3500 萬至 4500 萬美元用於降低成本和戰略資本，以改善我們的低成本地位並確保工廠的長期競爭力。這張幻燈片顯示了 2 個有吸引力的成本削減項目示例，一個在 Eastover 以減少化學品消耗，另一個在 Luis Antonio 以提高能源效率。這兩個項目預計將產生超過 20% 的內部回報率。

So with that, Jean-Michel, I'll turn it back to you.

因此，Jean-Michel，我會把它還給你。

Thanks, John. I'm now on Slide 15. We have revised our full year outlook. We now project adjusted EBITDA of $720 million to $770 million and free cash flow of $250 million to $280 million. These new projections reflect the impact of previously announced pulp price decreases. Our updated views on second half pulp and paper pricing and volume and favorable implement transportation costs. Sylvamo remains a cash flow story. Our revised outlook indicates continued strong free cash flow of about $6 to $7 per share, which will allow us to return more cash to share owners.

謝謝，約翰。我現在在幻燈片 15 上。我們修改了全年展望。我們現在預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.2 億至 7.7 億美元，自由現金流為 2.5 億至 2.8 億美元。這些新預測反映了先前宣布的紙漿價格下降的影響。我們對下半年紙漿和紙張定價和數量以及有利的實施運輸成本的最新看法。 Sylvamo 仍然是一個現金流故事。我們修訂後的前景表明，自由現金流持續強勁，約為每股 6 至 7 美元，這將使我們能夠向股東返還更多現金。

Slide 16, please. We remain confident in our ability to create shareowner value and remain committed to our investment thesis. We will continue to leverage our strengths to drive high returns on invested capital and generate cash, and we reduce that cash to maximize shareowner value. Our (inaudible) strategy of commercial excellence, operational excellence and financial discipline will enable us to continue creating long-term value for shareowners. We are grateful for our talented and engaged colleagues and their dedication to working safely, delivering on customer commitments and creating value for our shareowners. We're also grateful for our customers. Without their continued support and partnership, we cannot succeed.

請放幻燈片 16。我們對我們創造股東價值的能力充滿信心，並繼續致力於我們的投資理念。我們將繼續利用我們的優勢來推動投資資本的高回報並產生現金，我們減少現金以最大化股東價值。我們的（聽不清）商業卓越、卓越運營和財務紀律戰略將使我們能夠繼續為股東創造長期價值。我們感謝我們才華橫溢、敬業的同事，感謝他們致力於安全工作、履行客戶承諾並為我們的股東創造價值。我們也感謝我們的客戶。沒有他們的持續支持和合作，我們就無法成功。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Hans.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給漢斯。

Thanks, Jean-Michel, and thank you, John. Okay. Greg, we're now ready to take questions.

謝謝 Jean-Michel，謝謝 John。好的。格雷格，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Congratulations on the progress. My 2 questions. One is going to be on the value return and then also just on the outlook. So in terms of the value return and the $60 million in escrow and the $225 million liquidity. John, did you say you will do that? Or you can do that? I just want to make sure that we're clear on expectations over the course of the year, what your intention is there.

祝賀你的進步。我的2個問題。一個是價值回報，然後也是前景。因此，就價值回報、6000 萬美元的託管和 2.25 億美元的流動性而言。約翰，你說你會那樣做嗎？或者你能做到嗎？我只是想確保我們清楚這一年的期望，你的意圖是什麼。

And then on the pricing impact in your outlook, you were very explicit in saying that you had reflected in your 2Q guidance, the effect of pulp pricing across all regions, paper in Europe. There was no explicit mention of pricing elsewhere in other regions. You then said that you have incorporated your views on paper pricing in the second half, recognizing that pricing discussion is obviously very challenging at times on an open mic conversation. What do you want us to take away about your paper pricing expectations, the timing of which across the other region or across all the regions?

然後關於定價對你前景的影響，你非常明確地說你已經在你的第二季度指導中反映了紙漿定價對所有地區的影響，以及歐洲的紙張。沒有明確提及其他地區其他地方的定價。然後你說你已經在下半年採納了你對紙質定價的看法，認識到在公開的麥克風對話中定價討論有時顯然非常具有挑戰性。您希望我們從您的紙質定價預期中拿走什麼，在其他地區或所有地區的時間安排？

In terms of the value question you had, under our top priority we had going into this year was increased cash returns to our shareowners. We returned $90 million last year, and we intend to substantially increase that this year. To be able to do that, we do have to address the bank covenants now that we've gotten mid or, let's say, we've eliminated the bond. So as we approach $90 million, the intent would be to put $60 million into a net co so that we can return more going forward.

就您提出的價值問題而言，我們今年的首要任務是增加股東的現金回報。我們去年返還了 9000 萬美元，今年我們打算大幅增加。為了能夠做到這一點，我們確實必須解決銀行契約問題，因為我們已經取得了中期，或者說，我們已經取消了債券。因此，當我們接近 9000 萬美元時，我們的目的是將 6000 萬美元投入淨公司，以便我們可以在未來獲得更多回報。

I think your second question was around pricing. Let me give you some color around the outlook. So as we talk about and look at our first quarter pricing, we did roll back energy surcharge in Europe, and that was really just associated with the CIO mill volume because, of course, we didn't have the New Morland mill last October. We did increase prices in Brazil in the first quarter. And then prices in the Americas, the price mix was constant. It was flat going in. Our outlook, the $720 million to $770 million that we revise outlook does incorporate what we've seen already and would expect in terms of both pulp prices and paper prices across the region. And that's all I can really say about that.

我認為你的第二個問題是關於定價的。讓我給你一些關於前景的顏色。因此，當我們談論和查看第一季度定價時，我們確實降低了歐洲的能源附加費，這實際上與 CIO 工廠的產量有關，因為當然，去年 10 月我們沒有 New Morland 工廠。我們確實在第一季度提高了巴西的價格。然後是美洲的價格，價格組合是不變的。進展持平。我們的展望，即我們修改後的 7.2 億美元至 7.7 億美元的展望，確實包含了我們已經看到的以及該地區紙漿價格和紙張價格方面的預期。這就是我真正能說的。

What I would just add, without dialing on projections is, your question was towards Americas and North America, like Latin, we have not seen any price decrease up to know our prices are flat.

我想補充的是，在不考慮預測的情況下，你的問題是針對美洲和北美的，就像拉丁美洲一樣，我們沒有看到任何價格下降，直到知道我們的價格持平。

And we'll go back to the line of George Staphos.

我們將回到 George Staphos 的路線。

So related to that question, can you remind us -- how much of your volume is impacted by the pricing that we might see in the published indices, again, specifically within North America and then related across the other regions if there is volume? And if so, roughly how much is tied to indices.

與這個問題相關，您能否提醒我們——您的交易量有多少受到我們可能在已發布指數中看到的定價的影響，特別是在北美，如果有交易量，則與其他地區相關？如果是這樣，大致有多少與指數掛鉤。

The second question for this turn. You did -- from our vantage point, a bit better than expected in overall blended realizations in Europe yet for what it's worth, and it's our model, it's not your model. Results were a little bit off on our forecast in Europe. So were there some operating costs that clipped you there. And similarly, in North America, you operated very well from what we can see. Any call outs there beyond what you've already shared in the waterfall.

本回合的第二題。你做到了——從我們的角度來看，在歐洲的整體混合實現中比預期的要好一點，但它的價值是我們的模型，而不是你的模型。結果與我們在歐洲的預測略有不同。那麼，是否有一些運營成本讓你停在那裡。同樣，在北美，從我們看到的情況來看，你們經營得非常好。任何超出您已在瀑布中共享的內容的調用。

So just one thing on indexes. We have no prices linked to index. We're not like market pulp big guys. Our pulp customers are mostly small, medium regional customers, no index and our paper price have no index relation. So we -- that doesn't impact us. The second question was on European cost. I think there was 2 things. One is we had some unabsorbed fixed cost because we took as we mentioned, some economical downtime in Europe. So that's impacting our costs. That was probably some of the costs about it. And John, anything else? I think that was the main reason.

所以索引上只有一件事。我們沒有與指數掛鉤的價格。我們不像市場紙漿大人物。我們的紙漿客戶多為中小區域客戶，沒有指數，我們的紙價沒有指數關係。所以我們 - 這不會影響我們。第二個問題是關於歐洲成本的。我認為有兩件事。一是我們有一些未吸收的固定成本，因為正如我們提到的，我們在歐洲有一些經濟停機時間。所以這會影響我們的成本。這可能是它的一些成本。還有約翰，還有什麼嗎？我認為這是主要原因。

No, the only other thing we had is we had a couple of reliability is-- at the new [Milamill]. Nothing really major, but that did impact us.

不，我們唯一擁有的另一件事是我們有一些可靠性——在新的 [Milamill]。沒什麼大不了的，但這確實影響了我們。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn from RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Paul Quinn。

Just on the 60,000 tones lack order downtime, what's your level of confidence that this destocking is going to end at the end of Q2 here and that your back half of the year should be full on.

就 60,000 噸缺乏訂單停機時間而言，您對這種去庫存將在此處的第二季度末結束以及今年下半年應該全力以赴的信心程度如何。

Actually, we believe that destocking will not end in the second quarter. It will continue into the third quarter, both in North America and in Europe. And this is what we're seeing from our customers, how we're really confident that it will be completed by into the third quarter. So we are seeing and expect the second half of our outlook is stronger than the first half because we do expect increased volumes across all the regions. One is driven by the destocking is going to work its way through by the third quarter.

實際上，我們認為去庫存不會在二季度結束。它將持續到第三季度，在北美和歐洲都是如此。這就是我們從客戶那裡看到的，我們非常有信心它會在第三季度完成。因此，我們看到並預計下半年的前景會比上半年強，因為我們確實預計所有地區的銷量都會增加。一個是由去庫存推動的，將在第三季度完成。

In North America, we picked up additional tons from the mill that shut down in North Carolina, which is 60,000 tons. In Brazil, it's seasonally always stronger in the second half. But on top of that, this book -- the government book issue was a significant issue. And it's not unusual for when there's a change in government for them not to release the school book publishing contract. They were a little late on that, but that's actually -- we started seeing orders in the second quarter, but we actually see the bulk of that in the third quarter, which will make our Brazilian shipments stronger, even seasonally stronger than what we've seen in the past.

在北美，我們從北卡羅來納州關閉的工廠中增加了 60,000 噸。在巴西，下半年的季節性總是更強。但最重要的是，這本書——政府書籍問題是一個重要問題。當政府發生變化時，他們不發布教科書出版合同並不罕見。他們有點晚了，但實際上 - 我們在第二季度開始看到訂單，但實際上我們在第三季度看到了大部分訂單，這將使我們的巴西出貨量更強勁，甚至比我們的季節性更強過去見過。

And then just maybe as a follow-up to that. How do you determine between destocking and sort of (inaudible)?

然後可能只是作為後續行動。您如何確定去庫存和某種（聽不清）？

It's always a key question. The way I would mention it is, it's difficult to separate it. We do attribute from our customers and what we see on the end use information that helps us. What we can say is coming from our customers, most of them are still talking about some destocking going on, but clearly less than it was in the first quarter. From the end use, probably the only thing we have is the commercial printing -- and commercial printing, I would say, especially also the marketing budget of big companies with the uncertainty of the economy have a tendency to be reduced on advertising, and that reduction of advertising budget is impacting direct mill. So from the end-use segment, the only trend we can see is the direct mill. The rest of it, we're not seeing something significant we're mostly seeing destocking.

這始終是一個關鍵問題。我要提到的方式是，很難將它分開。我們確實從我們的客戶和我們在最終使用信息中看到的對我們有幫助的信息進行歸因。我們可以說的是來自我們的客戶，他們中的大多數人仍在談論正在進行的一些去庫存，但明顯少於第一季度。從最終用途來看，我們可能唯一擁有的就是商業印刷——商業印刷，我想說，尤其是大公司的營銷預算在經濟不確定的情況下有減少廣告的趨勢，而且廣告預算的減少正在影響直接工廠。因此，從最終用途部分來看，我們唯一可以看到的趨勢是直接磨機。其餘的，我們沒有看到一些重要的事情，我們主要看到的是去庫存。

And Paul, let me add to that. I think there is -- because sometimes in the reported industry statistics can be confusing. When you look at how significant demand decline that was reported in the fourth quarter. One thing to understand like when the Pulp and Paper and Products councils, for example, the calculation of demand, it is apparent demand. And what they use to calculate that in domestic shipments minus exports plus imports. And so in North America and also in Europe, imports can have a significant impact on this apparent demand. So because imports increased significantly in the fourth quarter, demand was somewhat inflated in terms of reported numbers. And because the exports receded in the first half, the demand decline numbers looked pretty severe.

保羅，讓我補充一點。我認為有——因為有時在報告的行業統計數據中可能會令人困惑。當您查看第四季度報告的需求下降幅度時。有一件事要理解，例如，當製漿造紙和產品委員會計算需求時，它是表觀需求。他們用什麼來計算國內出貨量減去出口加上進口。因此，在北美和歐洲，進口會對這種表觀需求產生重大影響。因此，由於第四季度進口大幅增加，需求在報告數字方面有所誇大。而且由於上半年出口回落，需求下降的數字看起來相當嚴重。

But if you look at the 6 months, the last 6 months essentially averages to you get in North America, for example, demand was down 3% for uncoated freesheet. And that's how we're kind of looking at it. So one of it is, you got to look at kind of through the noise. And we have seen, we believe some demand decline is driven from the economy, the slowing of the economy, particularly you see it and envelopes. And we've seen that in lower spending on direct mail. But for example, as I talked about cut size being resilient. If you look at the past 6 months, cuts actually up 2%, and that's because more people are returning back to the offices. So I hope that adds a little bit more color to the demand situation.

但如果你看一下過去 6 個月，過去 6 個月基本上是北美的平均水平，例如，未塗佈的免費紙張的需求下降了 3%。這就是我們看待它的方式。所以其中之一是，你必須通過噪音來看待。我們已經看到，我們認為一些需求下降是由經濟驅動的，經濟放緩，特別是你看到它和信封。我們已經看到了直郵支出的減少。但是，例如，正如我所說的切割尺寸具有彈性。如果你看看過去 6 個月，實際上削減了 2%，那是因為有更多人返回辦公室。所以我希望為需求情況增添一點色彩。

Just the maintenance variant really caught a sort of by surprise sort of big Q2 and Q4 spend. Do you anticipate that sort of same sort of pattern in '24 as well?

只是維護變體真的讓第二季度和第四季度的大筆支出有點意外。您是否也預計 24 年也會出現同樣的模式？

So there are 2 things into that, and we tried to outlook it when we give our numbers, but main outages are due to regulatory obligations and sometimes to timing with the weather. So in some mills, you don't want to do it when you're close to risk overcame season or a strong cold season when you are intact (inaudible).

所以其中有兩件事，當我們給出我們的數字時，我們試圖展望它，但主要的中斷是由於監管義務，有時是由於天氣的時間。因此，在某些工廠中，當您完好無損（聽不清）時，當您接近克服季節風險或寒冷季節時，您不想這樣做。

So you have also Saillat, which is maybe a little bit troubling because we are not on a 12-month outage rotation at Saillat. We are on a 12-month -- 18 months, sorry, 18-month rotation, which means you have 2 years with about $20 million negative impact, and you get a year with 0 in maintenance. Last year, we had 0. This year, we have an annual outage, which is 20, and we do it according to regulatory. But we usually always have strong seasons, which are second and fourth quarter when you look at the history of outage, as I mentioned, due to regulatory and weather.

所以你還有 Saillat，這可能有點麻煩，因為我們沒有在 Saillat 進行為期 12 個月的停機輪換。我們正在進行 12 個月 - 18 個月，對不起，18 個月的輪換，這意味著你有 2 年的時間產生大約 2000 萬美元的負面影響，而你有一年的維護費用為 0。去年，我們有 0 次。今年，我們每年停電 20 次，我們按照法規進行。但是，正如我提到的，由於監管和天氣原因，我們通常總是有旺季，當您查看停電歷史時，即第二季度和第四季度。

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathon Luft from Eagle Capital Partners.

你的下一個問題來自 Eagle Capital Partners 的 Jonathon Luft。

I was hoping you could flesh out a little bit the capacity closures and what you're seeing and how you were able to take some of that share? Was it competitively build? Was it something that the customers came to you? So that's my first question.

我希望你能稍微充實一些容量關閉和你所看到的以及你如何能夠佔據其中的一些份額？它是否具有競爭力？是客戶來找你的東西嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Jonathon, thanks for your question, and thanks for joining the call. We were -- well, we are working with actually existing customers for a lot of these orders in terms of moving some of that business that they had sourced with the mill that was closing back to us. We wanted -- we want to be selective. We want to make sure that we've got attractive business. And so our sales teams target those particular businesses that were attractive to us.

是的。喬納森，感謝您提出問題，也感謝您加入電話會議。我們 - 好吧，我們正在與實際存在的客戶合作，處理很多這些訂單，將他們從工廠採購的一些業務轉移給我們。我們想要 - 我們想要有選擇性。我們要確保我們擁有有吸引力的業務。因此，我們的銷售團隊針對那些對我們有吸引力的特定業務。

And the closure in Europe that you mentioned, did that happen yet? Or is that to come? And is there a similar opportunity to take some volume there?

你提到的歐洲關閉，發生了嗎？還是那會發生？是否有類似的機會在那裡取得一些成交量？

The short answer is no, it has not happened yet, and they have yet to announce exactly when that would -- the timing of that shutdown. But we do expect that, like anything, there's opportunity there to pick up business, yes, Jonathon. We target that.

簡短的回答是否定的，它還沒有發生，他們還沒有宣布確切的時間——關閉的時間。但我們確實希望，就像任何事情一樣，那裡有機會開展業務，是的，喬納森。我們以此為目標。

And just my last question, just on the guidance. And looking at Slide 15 and talking about the second half, you talked about favorable input and transportation costs. And I was hoping you could flesh that out. Are those related to items that might have annual contracts? Is it something that maybe will benefit you going into '24? Or is it really spot contracts that you're seeing lower? Just what's going on there?

最後一個問題，關於指導。看看幻燈片 15 並談到下半年，你談到了有利的投入和運輸成本。我希望你能充實它。那些與可能有年度合同的項目有關嗎？它可能會讓你進入 24 歲時受益嗎？或者您看到的真的是現貨合約走低？到底發生了什麼事？

And just my last question, just on the guidance. And looking at Slide 15 and talking about the second half, you talked about favorable input and transportation costs. And I was hoping you could flesh that out. Are those related to items that might have annual contracts? Is it something that maybe will benefit you going into '24? Or is it really spot contracts that you're seeing lower? Just what's going on there?

最後一個問題，關於指導。看看幻燈片 15 並談到下半年，你談到了有利的投入和運輸成本。我希望你能充實它。那些與可能有年度合同的項目有關嗎？它可能會讓你進入 24 歲時受益嗎？或者您看到的真的是現貨合約走低？到底發生了什麼事？

Next, we'll go back to the line of George Staphos.

接下來，我們將回到 George Staphos 的路線。

A couple of questions here. First of all, having owned Nymolla for a couple of months now, what are your learnings with it? You said you had some reliability issues. You said it wasn't significant, but what was behind that as well. So kind of what you've learned with Nymolla? What was in reliability, Kind of what's the horizon opportunity there? That would be sort of a multipart question number one.

這裡有幾個問題。首先，擁有 Nymolla 幾個月了，您從中學到了什麼？你說你有一些可靠性問題。你說這不重要，但那背後也有什麼。那麼你從 Nymolla 那裡學到了什麼？什麼是可靠性，那裡有什麼樣的地平線機會？那將是第一個多部分問題。

And then just as we think about, again, destocking consumption and the like, are you seeing better trends or worse trends depending on whether we're talking about retail versus commercial print versus distribution. My sense is probably your big box retail customers are doing okay in terms of demand because you said cut size, there's not really any destocking to go through. So if you could give us some additional one, affirm that or correct that, but to give us some color there.

然後就像我們再次考慮去庫存消費等一樣，您看到的是更好的趨勢還是更壞的趨勢，這取決於我們是在談論零售、商業印刷還是分銷。我的感覺可能是你的大型零售客戶在需求方面做得很好，因為你說削減規模，實際上沒有任何去庫存。所以如果你能給我們一些額外的，確認或更正，但要給我們一些顏色。

And then last, I took 3 here. The coated paper markets have been perhaps even more challenged based on the operating metrics. Are you seeing any effect -- obviously, we really wouldn't hit you that much in cut size, but are you seeing any effect of that coated paper in your commercial print markets and uncoated freesheet or is there something that you've embedded in your second half guidance for that potential risk? And if not, why not?

最後，我在這裡拿了 3 個。根據運營指標，塗佈紙市場可能面臨更大的挑戰。您是否看到任何影響 - 顯然，我們真的不會在裁剪尺寸上給您帶來太大影響，但是您是否看到塗層紙在您的商業印刷市場和未塗層的免費紙張中的任何影響，或者您是否已經嵌入了一些東西您對潛在風險的下半年指導？如果不是，為什麼不呢？

Well, I'll take the first one and maybe tag team also I'll take the second question, maybe your third question, too. But let me just say, from a Nymolla perspective, we've been very pleased with the performance that will-- very happy with the asset, with the people that we have. So this issue that I talked about in terms of the reliability is not atypical. I mean we have that in our other mills that will crop up over time. This just happened to be-- impact our energy consumption and increase our costs. But that issue is behind us. And the mill is performing very well. And we said in our presentation that the pulp mill upgrades that were completed prior to the acquisition.

好吧，我會回答第一個問題，也許我會回答第二個問題，也許還有你的第三個問題。但我只想說，從 Nymolla 的角度來看，我們對未來的表現非常滿意——對資產和我們擁有的人員非常滿意。所以我在可靠性方面談到的這個問題並不典型。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，我們的其他工廠也會出現這種情況。這恰好是——影響我們的能源消耗並增加我們的成本。但這個問題已經過去了。工廠的表現非常好。我們在介紹中說，紙漿廠升級是在收購之前完成的。

We're seeing those benefits now that the ramp-up curve is actually going better than expected. So all in all, we're very pleased with the performance of the Nymolla mill and I really believe that's just going to be a great asset, great business for us in Europe.

我們現在看到了這些好處，因為上升曲線實際上比預期的要好。所以總而言之，我們對 Nymolla 工廠的表現非常滿意，我真的相信這將成為我們在歐洲的一項巨大資產，一項偉大的業務。

Concerning destocking, as you mentioned it, you're correct. We're seeing it much more in the commercial printing, which impact merchants, then we're seeing it on the retail and cut size. Cut size has been more resilient, as John mentioned it. So we're seeing differences. And by the way, we're seeing some-- our customers which are telling us, it is going much better. They've done the biggest destocking they needed to. So that's why we plan to continue to have some in Q2, maybe less than Q1 and I think by third quarter, it would be gone. Effecting coated paper, it's very, very small. We sometimes see it on some of our high-end products from Ticonderoga, but it is not significative to us.

關於去庫存，正如你所說，你是對的。我們在影響商家的商業印刷中看到了更多，然後我們在零售和裁剪尺寸上看到了它。正如 John 提到的那樣，切割尺寸更具彈性。所以我們看到了差異。順便說一句，我們看到一些——我們的客戶告訴我們，情況要好得多。他們已經完成了他們需要的最大規模的去庫存。所以這就是為什麼我們計劃在第二季度繼續有一些，可能少於第一季度，我認為到第三季度，它就會消失。影響銅版紙，它非常非常小。我們有時會在 Ticonderoga 的一些高端產品上看到它，但它對我們來說意義不大。

(Operator Instructions) And you have a question from the line of David Steinhardt from Contrarian Capital.

（操作員說明）你有一個來自 Contrarian Capital 的 David Steinhardt 的問題。

Can you talk about the new additional directors that came on through the co-option agreement with Atlas, how they have impacted the Board, how they might have been helpful so far? And any thoughts that you might have about the company as you approach your important 2-year anniversary?

您能否談談通過與 Atlas 的共同選擇協議產生的新董事，他們對董事會有何影響，到目前為止他們可能有何幫助？在您即將迎來重要的 2 週年紀念日之際，您對公司有何想法？

First of all, let me tell you, it's a good experience. As we expected, we have 2 experienced persons. So in our April Board meeting, we will come the 2 new directors. The timing was perfect in (inaudible) when we conduct our strategic reviews with the Board. All the sessions were productive. I'll bring our new director to see. As I mentioned, they bring unique experience and talented and they are aligned with our objective of creating value for shareholders. So I would say, all in all, good experience, nothing special.

首先，讓我告訴你，這是一次很好的體驗。正如我們所料，我們有 2 名有經驗的人。因此，在我們 4 月份的董事會會議上，我們將任命 2 位新董事。當我們與董事會進行戰略審查時，（聽不清）的時機非常完美。所有會議都富有成效。我帶我們的新主任去看看。正如我所提到的，他們帶來了獨特的經驗和才華，並且符合我們為股東創造價值的目標。所以我想說，總而言之，很好的體驗，沒什麼特別的。

And any thoughts around that you might have about the business as you approach your 2-year anniversary?

在您即將成立 2 週年之際，您對公司有什麼想法嗎？

I'm not sure I understand the question. I'm sorry. If anything, I would just say, Sylvamo is doing well. I mean we expect, again, a year of $720 million to $770 million, strong free cash flow. So 2 great years, 2022 was a good year and expect another good year in '23.

我不確定我是否理解這個問題。對不起。如果有的話，我只想說，Sylvamo 做得很好。我的意思是，我們再次期待 7.2 億至 7.7 億美元的強勁自由現金流。所以 2 個偉大的年份，2022 年是個好年頭，期待 23 年又一個好年頭。

Yes, just to add to that, David, I mean, we really believe that the uncoated freesheet markets that we operate in, provide attractive conditions that allow us to leverage our competitive advantages to generate high returns on invested capital. And we believe we can generate first quartile total shareholder returns. We feel very positive about that even in light of maybe some challenging economic clouds that are rolling in. But we believe that we will continue to generate high returns on invested capital, and we're generating over 25% returns on invested capital today, and we believe that there's more to be done, and we can increase our earnings and our cash flow going forward.

是的，大衛，我的意思是，我的意思是，我們真的相信我們經營的無塗層免費紙市場提供了有吸引力的條件，使我們能夠利用我們的競爭優勢來產生高投資回報率。我們相信我們可以產生第一四分位數的股東總回報。我們對此感到非常樂觀，即使考慮到一些具有挑戰性的經濟烏雲正在滾滾而來。但我們相信，我們將繼續產生高投資資本回報率，我們今天的投資資本回報率超過 25%，並且我們相信還有更多工作要做，我們可以增加收入和未來的現金流。

And next, we'll go back to the line of George Staphos.

接下來，我們將回到 George Staphos 的路線。

One last question for you. The working capital is a touch more negative than what we're looking for. One of the things that we saw was payables were down, and I'm just guessing that as you've been trying to work working capital down, you also haven't needed as much in the way of chemicals and other inputs that would go into production. But just wanted to ascertain if that was it and if there's anything else other than obviously, the destocking in that working capital line. So what was the accounts payable and working capital and now turn it over and have a good quarter.

最後一個問題。營運資金比我們正在尋找的更負面。我們看到的其中一件事是應付賬款下降了，我只是猜測，由於您一直在努力減少營運資金，因此您也不需要那麼多的化學品和其他投入品投入生產。但只是想確定是否就是這樣，除了明顯的流動資金線的去庫存之外，是否還有其他任何事情。那麼應付賬款和營運資金是多少，現在把它轉過來，有一個好的季度。

Our free cash flow in the second -- first quarter was as expected. The key things that were driving that, as you rightly said, is that payables were down. One of that was the incentive plans that we paid and that was a big contributor to that. The other thing was the increase in inventories that drew our working capital, and that was in preparation getting prepared for this significant outage quarter that we had right now. So that was the key factors that drove the working capital change in the first quarter.

我們第二季度的自由現金流——第一季度符合預期。正如你所說的那樣，推動這一趨勢的關鍵因素是應付賬款下降。其中之一是我們支付的激勵計劃，這是一個很大的貢獻者。另一件事是庫存的增加吸引了我們的營運資金，這是在為我們現在遇到的這個重大停電季度做準備。因此，這是推動第一季度營運資金變化的關鍵因素。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I'd now like to turn the call back to Hans Bjorkman for any closing comments.

而此時，沒有進一步的問題。我現在想將電話轉回給 Hans Bjorkman，徵求任何結束意見。

Thanks, Greg. Before I wrap up the call, Jean-Michel, any closing thoughts?

謝謝，格雷格。在我結束電話會議之前，Jean-Michel，有什麼結束的想法嗎？

Thanks, Hans. First of all, thanks, everybody, for joining our call. I think it's important to say this year, we remain confident in our ability to generate very strong EBITDA between $720 million to $770 million, free cash flow of $250 million to $280 million. Just to put it in perspective, that represents an adjusted EBITDA of more than 18% and the return on invested capital above 25%. So we're expecting good numbers, and that will allow us to achieve one of our main goal, which is to return more than 90 million to shareholders. We'll do that dividend and share repurchases in '23, and that remains one of our priority.

謝謝，漢斯。首先，感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。我認為今年重要的是，我們仍然相信我們有能力產生非常強勁的 EBITDA 在 7.2 億至 7.7 億美元之間，自由現金流為 2.5 億至 2.8 億美元。從長遠來看，這意味著調整後的 EBITDA 超過 18%，投資資本回報率超過 25%。所以我們期待好的數字，這將使我們能夠實現我們的主要目標之一，即向股東返還超過 9000 萬美元。我們將在 23 年進行股息和股票回購，這仍然是我們的首要任務之一。

With that, thank you for joining the call.

有了這個，感謝您加入電話會議。

Thanks for joining the call. We appreciate your interest in Sylvamo, and we look forward to continued conversations in the coming weeks and the months ahead. Thank you very much. Have a great day.

感謝您加入電話會議。感謝您對 Sylvamo 的關注，我們期待在接下來的幾周和幾個月內繼續對話。非常感謝。祝你有美好的一天。

Once again, we would like to thank you for participating in Sylvamo's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect.

我們再次感謝您參加 Sylvamo 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。