SLM Corp (SLM) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Sallie Mae second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Kate deLacy, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    歡迎參加 Sallie Mae 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 現在我想把電話交給投資人關係副總裁 Kate deLacy。請開始。

  • Kate De Lacy - Senior Director, Head of Investor Relations

    Kate De Lacy - Senior Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Madison. Good evening, and welcome to Sallie Mae's second quarter 2026 earnings call. It is my pleasure to be here today with Jon Witter, our CEO; Pete Grant, our Co-President and CFO; and Melissa Bronaugh, Managing Vice President of Strategic Finance. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, keep in mind, our discussion will contain predictions, expectations and forward-looking statements.

    謝謝你,Madison。各位晚安,歡迎參加 Sallie Mae 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我很高興今天與我們的執行長 Jon Witter、共同總裁兼財務長 Pete Grant,以及策略財務董事總經理(Managing Vice President)Melissa Bronaugh 一同出席。在事先準備的發言之後,我們將開放提問。在開始之前,請記得我們的討論將包含預測、期望以及前瞻性陳述。

  • Actual results in the future may be materially different from those discussed here due to a variety of factors. Listeners should refer to the discussion of those factors in the company's Form 10-Q and other filings with the SEC.

    由於多種因素,未來的實際結果可能與此處討論內容有重大差異。聽眾應參閱公司 Form 10-Q 及其他向 SEC 提交文件中對這些因素的討論。

  • For Sallie Mae, these factors include, among others, results of operations, financial conditions and/or cash flows, as well as any potential impacts of various external factors on our business. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any predictions, expectations or forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after today, Thursday, July 23, 2026.

    對 Sallie Mae 而言,這些因素包括但不限於營運結果、財務狀況及/或現金流,以及各種外部因素對我們業務可能造成的任何影響。我們不承擔任何義務更新或修訂任何預測、期望或前瞻性陳述,以反映在今天(2026 年 7 月 23 日,星期四)之後發生的事件或情況。

  • Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Jon.

    謝謝,現在我把電話交給 Jon。

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Kate, and Madison. Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss Sallie Mae's second quarter 2026 results. Before we dive into the quarter's results, it's worth taking a moment to reflect on the strong position we enjoy today as a company. It's been just over a year since the federal PLUS reform reshaped the higher education financing landscape and created the potential for a $4.5 billion to $5 billion increase in annual originations for Sallie Mae over the next several years.

    謝謝你,Kate,也謝謝 Madison。各位晚安。感謝各位加入我們,一同討論 Sallie Mae 2026 年第二季的業績。在深入本季結果之前,值得花點時間回顧一下公司目前所處的強勁位置。自聯邦 PLUS 改革重塑高等教育融資版圖、並在未來數年為 Sallie Mae 帶來每年約 45 億至 50 億美元新增放款(originations)潛力以來,至今已略超過一年。

  • Since then, we have been diligently preparing for this exciting opportunity to serve more students and families, strengthening our product offering, investing in our capabilities and positioning the company for our first peak season under the revised federal programs. At the same time, we have remained focused on supporting our school partners and maintaining our industry-leading status as a preferred lender for more than 2,100 schools.

    自那時起,我們一直勤勉地為這個令人振奮的機會做準備,以服務更多學生與家庭;同時強化產品組合、投資能力建設,並為修訂後聯邦計畫下的首個旺季做好公司定位。與此同時,我們也持續專注於支持學校合作夥伴,並維持我們作為超過 2,100 所學校首選貸款機構(preferred lender)的產業領先地位。

  • I'm pleased to announce that we have successfully delivered all of the additional products, features and functions we planned for this peak season, including enhancements to our medical, dental, law and MBA products and the launch of our new parent loan.

    我很高興宣布,我們已成功交付本旺季規劃的所有新增產品、功能與特性,包括對醫學、牙醫、法律與 MBA 產品的強化,以及推出我們新的家長貸款。

  • While peak season is just beginning and it's too early for definitive conclusions, the application and volume trends for these new products, as shared on page 5 of our earnings presentation, are at the higher end of our expectations or better. These trends, if sustained, reinforce our confidence in both our 2026 originations, estimates and the longer-term opportunity presented by changes to the PLUS programs.

    雖然旺季才剛開始,現在下定論仍為時過早,但如我們財報簡報第 5 頁所示,這些新產品的申請與量能趨勢位於我們預期的高端,甚至更佳。若這些趨勢得以延續,將進一步強化我們對 2026 年放款量估計以及 PLUS 計畫變更所帶來長期機會的信心。

  • We are pleased with our performance and the positive trends we are seeing in credit. The changes we have made in the past to our underwriting standards and loss mitigation practices are bearing fruit. Previously distressed borrowers are successfully navigating their loan modification journey and enjoying better-than-expected success upon completion. Credit trends within our portfolio are generally consistent with or better than expectations. We believe these factors position the company for continued success in 2026 and beyond.

    我們對自身表現以及在信用方面看到的正向趨勢感到滿意。我們過去對核貸標準與損失緩解(loss mitigation)作法所做的調整正在開花結果。先前處於困境的借款人正成功完成其貸款修改(loan modification)流程,且完成後的表現優於預期。我們投資組合內的信用趨勢整體上與預期一致或更佳。我們相信這些因素使公司在 2026 年及未來持續成功具備良好條件。

  • Within that context, let's jump into the details of the quarter. GAAP diluted EPS in the second quarter was $0.29 per share. Loan originations were $716 million, up nearly 4.5% from the prior year quarter. In addition to overall growth, origination credit quality improved modestly year-over-year, with the average FICO score increasing from 754 to 755, while cosigner rates remained strong at 84%.

    在此背景下,讓我們進入本季細節。第二季 GAAP 稀釋後每股盈餘(EPS)為每股 0.29 美元。放款量為 7.16 億美元,較去年同期成長近 4.5%。除整體成長外,放款信用品質亦較去年同期小幅改善,平均 FICO 分數由 754 提升至 755,而共同簽署人(cosigner)比率仍維持強勁的 84%。

  • Turning to credit. As discussed at a recent conference, we have observed activity affecting a small segment of borrowers who we believe have both the willingness and capacity to repay, yet are progressing directly through delinquency to default.

    接著談信用。如我們在近期一場會議中所討論,我們觀察到有一小部分借款人出現某些行為;我們認為這些借款人既有還款意願也有還款能力,但卻直接從逾期(delinquency)一路進展到違約(default)。

  • Based on our analysis, we believe many of these borrowers are engaging with debt resolution providers whose services are being marketed as consolidation or refinancing solutions. We do not believe that many of these practices are in the customers' best interest, and we are committed to doing what it takes to ensure that customer interests are protected and that our recovery and settlement strategies are fully aligned with the underlying value of our loans.

    根據我們的分析,我們認為其中許多借款人正在與債務解決服務商(debt resolution providers)接觸,而這些服務被行銷為整合或再融資(refinancing)解決方案。我們不認為其中許多作法符合客戶的最佳利益;我們也承諾將採取必要措施,確保客戶權益受到保護,並使我們的回收與和解(recovery and settlement)策略與貸款的內在價值充分一致。

  • In response to this, we have taken deliberate steps to increase control over our post-default recoveries. While these actions create an in-year headroom to potential recoveries previously estimated at approximately $25 million in 2026, we view the impact as largely a timing dynamic and expect our internal efforts to equal or exceed this recovery level over time.

    為此,我們已採取審慎步驟,以提高對違約後回收(post-default recoveries)的掌控。雖然這些行動在 2026 年度內,會使先前估計約 2,500 萬美元的潛在回收金額出現可用空間(headroom),但我們認為其影響主要屬於時間點的動態;並預期隨時間推移,我們的內部作業將達到或超過此回收水準。

  • In this context, we remain optimistic about our credit performance. Net charge-offs for the quarter were $113 million, up from $94 million in the prior year quarter, approximately $16 million of the year-over-year increase we believe to be attributable to these misaligned third-party debt resolution practices and the related shifts in our recovery strategies.

    在此脈絡下,我們對信用表現仍保持樂觀。本季淨沖銷(net charge-offs)為 1.13 億美元,高於去年同期的 9,400 萬美元;我們認為年增幅中約 1,600 萬美元可歸因於這些與我們利益不一致的第三方債務解決作法,以及我們回收策略的相關調整。

  • Importantly, we do not view this as a broad-based weakening in credit. While our most recent repayment wave increased by 4%, the net charge-offs for the portfolio, excluding this small, impacted segment, grew at a much slower rate.

    重要的是,我們不將此視為信用的全面性走弱。雖然我們最新一期還款波(repayment wave)增加了 4%,但若排除這個受影響的小區段,整體投資組合的淨沖銷增幅要小得多。

  • Supporting this performance is the sustained success of our loan modification programs. Borrowers in all active modification cohorts continue to have payment success rate in excess of 80% over 6- and 12-month periods. Looking specifically at borrowers who have begun to exit the programs, over 75% are consistently making payments after three months and six months.

    支撐此表現的是我們貸款修改計畫的持續成功。所有仍在進行中的修改分群(modification cohorts)之借款人,在 6 個月與 12 個月期間的付款成功率持續超過 80%。特別就已開始退出計畫的借款人而言,超過 75% 在三個月與六個月後仍持續穩定付款。

  • We are encouraged by these results, which are performing modestly better than our expectations. Overall, we remain confident in the underlying health of the portfolio. Credit quality remains strong, borrower performance trends are stable, and the current loss pressure is concentrated, understood and manageable.

    我們對這些結果感到鼓舞,其表現略優於我們的預期。整體而言,我們對投資組合的基本健康狀況仍具信心。信用品質依然強勁,借款人表現趨勢穩定,而目前的損失壓力是集中、可理解且可管理的。

  • Pete will now take you through some additional details. Pete?

    接下來 Pete 將帶各位了解更多細節。Pete?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Jon. Good evening, everyone. For the second quarter of 2026, we generated $333 million of net interest income and $45 million of other income. Compared with the prior year quarter, net interest income decreased by $44 million while other income increased by $16 million, driven by growth in recurring program management fees from our strategic partnership and growth in servicing fee revenue.

    謝謝你,Jon。各位晚安。2026 年第二季,我們創造了 3.33 億美元的淨利息收入,以及 4,500 萬美元的其他收入。與去年同期相比,淨利息收入減少 4,400 萬美元,而其他收入增加 1,600 萬美元;主要受我們策略合作夥伴帶來的經常性方案管理費(program management fees)成長,以及服務費收入(servicing fee revenue)成長所驅動。

  • Net interest margin was 4.75% for the quarter. As previously communicated, we expected NIM to moderate modestly during the quarter, primarily reflecting the higher liquidity levels following the loan sale completed in late March.

    本季淨利息收益率(NIM)為 4.75%。如先前所溝通,我們預期本季 NIM 會小幅趨緩,主要反映 3 月下旬完成貸款出售後流動性水位較高。

  • Looking towards the second half of this year, we expect margin expansion to resume as excess liquidity is deployed into new loan originations during our peak season. As a result, we believe the second quarter will likely represent the low point for margin this year. Importantly, the underlying earnings power of the portfolio remains strong, supported by disciplined funding, attractive asset yields and continued growth in fee-based revenue streams.

    展望今年下半年,我們預期隨著在旺季期間將多餘流動性投入新的放款承作,利差擴張將恢復。因此,我們認為第二季很可能將是今年利差的低點。重要的是,在審慎的資金調度、具吸引力的資產收益率以及手續費型收入來源持續成長的支撐下,該投資組合的基本獲利能力仍然強勁。

  • Private education loans delinquent 30 days or more were 3.7% of loans in repayment, an increase from 3.5% in the year ago quarter and a decrease from 4% at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Our reserve rate was 5.89% at the end of the quarter, down 6 basis points from the prior year period, reflecting the effectiveness of our disciplined underwriting and ongoing efforts to optimize loss mitigation strategies. Our provision for credit losses was $126 million in the second quarter, down from $149 million in the year ago quarter.

    私人教育貸款逾期30天以上者,占還款中貸款的3.7%,較去年同期的3.5%上升,較2026年第一季末的4%下降。本季末我們的備抵率為5.89%,較去年同期下降6個基點,反映我們嚴謹的承作審核成效,以及持續優化損失緩解策略的努力。第二季我們的信用損失提列為1.26億美元,低於去年同期的1.49億美元。

  • Noninterest expenses were $195 million, up $28 million from the year ago quarter. The majority of this increase was driven by onetime investments and product enhancements, as well as strategic initiatives to support anticipated growth from the federal lending reforms.

    非利息費用為1.95億美元,較去年同期增加2,800萬美元。此增幅主要來自一次性投資與產品強化,以及為支援聯邦放貸改革所帶來的預期成長而推動的策略性計畫。

  • Importantly, revenue growth from servicing and recurring program management fees more than offset a significant portion of these investments, resulting in an efficiency ratio of 48.6%, an increase of just 7 percentage points year-over-year. This reflects our ability to invest meaningfully in future growth while continuing to operate from a position of financial strength.

    重要的是,來自貸後服務與經常性方案管理費的營收成長,抵銷了上述投資中的相當一部分,使效率比率為48.6%,年增僅7個百分點。這反映我們在維持財務實力的同時,仍能對未來成長進行具意義的投資。

  • As you may remember, earlier this year, we took decisive action in response to the market dislocation in our stock, which allowed us to return a significant amount of capital to shareholders through a $200 million accelerated share repurchase program. We completed the ASR during the second quarter, repurchasing a total of 9.3 million shares. The final 900,000 shares were recorded on June 30 upon completion of the program.

    如各位可能記得,今年稍早我們針對公司股價的市場失衡採取果斷行動,透過2億美元的加速庫藏股計畫,向股東返還了可觀的資本。我們已於第二季完成該ASR,合計回購930萬股。最後的90萬股已於6月30日、計畫完成時入帳。

  • Year-to-date, we have repurchased approximately 13 million shares or 6.5% of the shares outstanding at the end of 2025 at an average price of $21.95 per share. Since 2020, we have reduced shares outstanding by approximately 59% at an average price of $17.19 per share, underscoring our disciplined approach to long-term value creation. We have $242 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization, which we expect to substantially deploy throughout the remainder of this year.

    年初至今,我們以每股平均21.95美元的價格回購約1,300萬股,約占2025年底流通在外股數的6.5%。自2020年以來,我們以每股平均17.19美元的價格將流通在外股數減少約59%,凸顯我們在長期價值創造上的紀律作法。在股票回購授權額度下,我們尚餘2.42億美元,預期在今年剩餘期間將大幅度加以運用。

  • Finally, our liquidity and capital positions remain solid. We ended the quarter with liquidity of 18.6% of total assets. At the end of the second quarter, total risk-based capital was 13.1% and common equity Tier 1 capital was 11.8%. We continue to believe in our strategy and the solid foundation it provides to drive sustainable growth and return capital to shareholders.

    最後,我們的流動性與資本部位仍然穩健。本季末流動性占總資產的18.6%。第二季末,總風險基礎資本比率為13.1%,普通股權第一類資本比率(CET1)為11.8%。我們仍然相信我們的策略,以及其所提供的穩固基礎,能推動可持續的成長並向股東返還資本。

  • I'll now turn the call back to Jon.

    我現在把電話交回給Jon。

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Pete. As we discussed today, our preparation for the evolving market landscape is beginning to translate into encouraging early indicators, and we are pleased with the momentum building across the business as we enter peak season. We believe the recovery actions we have taken have the potential to create better outcomes for both borrowers and Sallie Mae.

    謝謝,Pete。如同我們今天所討論的,我們為不斷演變的市場環境所做的準備,正開始轉化為令人鼓舞的早期指標;在進入旺季之際,我們也樂見整體業務動能正在累積。我們相信我們已採取的復甦行動,有潛力為借款人與Sallie Mae帶來更好的結果。

  • Combined with the continued positive performance of our loan modification programs, these factors further strengthen our confidence in the durability of our portfolio. The investments we have made, together with strong credit quality and growing customer demand, position us well for the remainder of 2026.

    再加上我們貸款修改方案持續的正向表現,這些因素進一步強化我們對投資組合韌性的信心。我們所做的投資,配合強勁的信用品質與成長中的客戶需求,使我們在2026年剩餘期間具備良好定位。

  • With that in mind, let's turn to our updated guidance. At this time, we are narrowing our net charge-off guidance range by maintaining the high end at $385 million and raising the low end to $365 million. We are making this change in response to our adjusted recovery practices, as detailed on slide 8 in the earnings presentation and discussed earlier in my remarks.

    基於此,讓我們來看更新後的指引。目前,我們透過維持高端在3.85億美元、並將低端上調至3.65億美元,來縮窄淨沖銷(NCO)指引區間。我們做出此調整,是回應我們已調整的回收作法;相關內容已在財報簡報第8頁詳述,並在我先前的發言中提及。

  • While we continue to expect approximately a $25 million potential impact to recoveries in 2026, a portion of this NCO impact has already been partially offset by slightly better-than-expected performance in the broader portfolio. This reinforces our confidence in the underlying credit performance in the business. We are affirming all other guidance metrics.

    雖然我們仍預期2026年回收金額可能約有2,500萬美元的影響,但其中一部分NCO影響已被整體投資組合表現略優於預期所部分抵銷。這進一步強化我們對業務基本信用表現的信心。我們確認其他所有指引指標不變。

  • With that, Pete, why don't we go ahead and open up the call for questions.

    那麼,Pete,我們不如就開始開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

    Mark DeVries,德意志銀行。

  • Mark DeVries - Analyst

    Mark DeVries - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. Pete, I think you mentioned you expect 2Q to maybe be the low point in the NIM for the year. But any color you can give us on kind of the trajectory for that in the back half?

    是的,謝謝。Pete,我想你提到你預期第二季可能會是今年淨利息收益率(NIM)的低點。但你能否就下半年NIM的走勢提供一些說明?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Mark. Yeah, I think as we deploy the liquidity during the peak season, we'll start to normalize probably closer to our long-term target range of kind of 5%. I don't think we'll get too far up in that normal range. But I think plus or minus, we should track there for the full year.

    好的。謝謝你,Mark。我認為,隨著我們在旺季期間運用流動性,我們將開始回到較正常的水準,可能更接近我們約5%的長期目標區間。我不認為會升到正常區間的太高端。但我認為,上下些微波動,我們全年應該會大致落在那個水準。

  • Mark DeVries - Analyst

    Mark DeVries - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then any updates you can provide on ongoing conversations with the new loan sale partner? And also, any optimism you may have that buyer could help expand your credit box and the TAM?

    好的。了解。另外,關於與新的貸款出售合作夥伴的持續對話,你們能提供任何最新進展嗎?以及,你是否樂觀認為該買方能協助擴大你們的授信範圍(credit box)與總可服務市場(TAM)?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, sure. We started this year with the goal of expanding the partnerships. And we ran a mini process similar to what we did last year with a lot of the same participants. We selected a partner to go into bilateral negotiations with. That's progressing really well. We're in the stage where documents are being created and traded back and forth with each other. And? We're negotiating the finer points of the economics.

    好的,當然。我們今年一開始的目標就是擴大合作夥伴關係。我們進行了一個小型流程,類似去年所做的,參與者多數也相同。我們選定了一家夥伴進入雙邊協商。進展非常順利。我們目前處於文件起草並彼此往返交換的階段。然後?我們正在協商經濟條款的細節。

  • I feel really good about kind of how that process is going there, sort of openness to our asset class and their interest in both the traditional undergrad product that we have traditionally sold, but also at the margins, creating some opportunity for credit box expansion. I expect that, that will continue at pace and likely close in the third quarter or early fourth quarter at the latest in time for us to potentially put some of our peak origination volume into the new partnership.

    我對整個流程的進展感到很有信心;他們對我們的資產類別相當開放,也對我們過去一向出售的傳統大學部產品有興趣,同時在邊際上也創造了一些擴大授信範圍的機會。我預期這將持續按既定節奏推進,並可能在第三季或最晚第四季初完成,以便我們有機會在旺季將部分承作量納入新的合作關係中。

  • Mark DeVries - Analyst

    Mark DeVries - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

    Moshe Orenbuch,TD Cowen。

  • Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

    Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

  • Great. I'm hoping that maybe, Pete, you could give us a little bit of additional detail as to how the current partnership is going? And how should we think about the revenue components, both periodic and kind of ongoing from that? And if there are any differences that you've kind of incorporated into the discussions with the new partner? Or would it be similar? Thanks.

    很好。我希望你或許可以,Pete,提供一些更進一步的細節,說明目前的合作夥伴關係進展如何?以及我們應該如何看待其中的收入組成,包括定期性的與較持續性的部分?另外,你們在與新夥伴的討論中是否納入了任何差異?還是會類似?謝謝。

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, sure. The existing partnership with KKR is going really well, according to plan. The volumes that we had anticipated for the year are coming in right in line with expectations. The structure of the second partnership is largely in line with the economics that we have in the first partnership with some minor tweaks to different components of the structure. But we feel really good about how the KKR partnership has gone so far.

    當然,當然。依照計畫,現有與 KKR 的合作夥伴關係進展得非常順利。我們原先預期今年的量能,正如預期般到位。第二個合作夥伴關係的架構,大致上與我們第一個與 KKR 的合作在經濟條件上保持一致,只是在架構的不同組成部分上做了一些小幅調整。但我們對 KKR 合作迄今的進展感到非常滿意。

  • I think importantly, both KKR as well as the second partner have expressed strong interest in building capabilities for taking Grad product. And so that will be kind of the next phase after we get through peak originations this year and have a little more information about what the makeup of our Grad originations are.

    我認為很重要的是,KKR 以及第二位合作夥伴都表達了強烈興趣,希望建立承作 Grad 產品的能力。因此,在我們度過今年的放款高峰期,並對我們 Grad 放款的組成有更多資訊之後,這將會是下一個階段。

  • And I think also, once we've completed the second partnership, we'll be in a position to share more details around components of the fees and ranges of those fees once we get beyond having just one bilateral arrangement.

    而且我也認為,一旦我們完成第二個合作夥伴關係,我們就能在不再只有單一雙邊安排之後,分享更多關於費用組成與費用區間的細節。

  • Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

    Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

  • Great. Okay. Thanks. I wanted to also just talk a little bit about credit performance. Obviously, a pretty hot topic. And it is encouraging that you kept the high end of your charge-off guide range where it was, but anything that kind of approaches credit kind of gets people a little more antsy.

    很好。好的。謝謝。我也想稍微談一下信用品質表現。顯然這是個相當熱門的話題。你們把核銷指引區間的上緣維持不變,這點令人鼓舞,但任何接近信用面的事情都會讓大家更緊張一些。

  • And Jon, you had made a comment saying that you felt good about the current performance that you had already kind of offset or some of the recovery from those kind of deferred recoveries. And I was hoping you could kind of just expand on that? What aspects of the performance are you seeing that are better? And how does -- if you can kind of roll that out for us over the next several quarters, how does that manifest itself in your numbers?

    Jon,你曾評論說你對目前的表現感覺良好,因為你們已經某種程度上抵銷了、或回補了那些延後回收所帶來的一部分影響。我希望你能再多展開說明一下?你看到哪些表現面向變得更好?以及如果你能在接下來幾個季度為我們梳理一下,這會如何反映在你們的數字上?

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Moshe, let me sort of provide the perspectives I can. I may not be able to give all the detail you're looking for. First of all, we really appreciate credit as a sensitive topic, given broader macroeconomic, technological sort of concerns and the like.

    好的。Moshe,我先提供我能提供的觀點。我可能無法給到你想要的所有細節。首先,鑑於更廣泛的總體經濟、科技等方面的疑慮,我們確實理解信用是一個敏感議題。

  • I think that is why we have worked really hard starting at a conference a couple of, I guess, just a month ago that Pete attended and going through the day to really try to provide a lot of detail about what's going on with this particular segment in question and sort of how we are treating it and why. And I think we're also trying to provide a nice amount of data on the performance of sort of the other components of our credit story.

    我想這也是為什麼我們從(我想)大概一個月前 Pete 參加的一場會議開始,就非常努力在當天的說明中提供大量細節,說明這個特定被關注的分項到底發生了什麼、我們如何處理、以及原因。同時,我們也試著提供相當多的數據,來呈現我們信用故事中其他組成部分的表現。

  • Let me first start with what was the hot topic for the last couple of years, which is loan modifications. And I think if you rewind the tape, Moshe, you obviously know us well. When we changed the loan modification program, the question was always how were these customers going to perform when they come out the other side. We are now up to six plus -- six months-plus outperformance with some of these customers. Obviously, less with others as they roll out of the mods.

    我先從過去幾年最熱門的話題開始,也就是貸款修改(loan modifications)。Moshe,如果你回顧一下,你當然很了解我們。當我們調整貸款修改方案時,大家一直在問:這些客戶在方案結束、回到正常狀態後,表現會如何。目前我們已經看到其中一些客戶在退出後連續六個月以上的優於預期表現。當然,其他客戶因為退出修改的時間較晚,觀察期就比較短。

  • And I think the data we've provided is, I hope, helpful, useful and encouraging. We are seeing better than 75% success rate after three months and six months. That is higher than our expectations. I think we've given you some of that data in the overall investor presentation. And we feel great about that and have not seen any trends in those payment rates over time that would make us anything less than optimistic about their effectiveness.

    我認為我們提供的數據,希望是有幫助、有用且令人鼓舞的。我們看到在三個月與六個月後的成功率都超過 75%。這高於我們的預期。我想我們在整體投資人簡報中也提供了部分數據。我們對此感到非常好,而且也沒有看到這些付款率隨時間出現任何趨勢,會讓我們對其有效性不再樂觀。

  • And again, that hasn't happened by accident. Those programs are, we think, very well designed. They are tightly controlled in terms of entry. The conditions and the requirements for what a customer has to do to get into them are quite diligent, and we obviously track that regularly to make sure we're getting the performance we like.

    再說一次,這並非偶然。我們認為這些方案設計得非常好。在進入條件方面控管得很嚴格。客戶要符合哪些條件與要求才能進入,審核相當嚴謹;而我們也會定期追蹤,以確保表現符合我們的期待。

  • So I think that is sort of key component number 1 and obviously something that's going to be important to our credit story for the remainder of this year as those customers come out of their modifications and setting sort of new baseline levels of expectation going forward.

    所以我認為這是關鍵的第一個組成部分;而且顯然,隨著這些客戶在今年剩餘時間陸續結束修改方案,並在未來建立新的基準預期水準,這也將對我們的信用故事非常重要。

  • In terms of the core performance of the portfolio, I think the simple math I would point you to is, I think we've been very clear that the sort of recovery gap has been estimated to be about $25 million on this segment in question. I think it is notable we have only raised sort of the lower end of our guidance by $20 million. And I think that is reflective of the fact that we are seeing general strength in the portfolio across the rest of our segments and the rest of the components that obviously more than offset the sort of full $25 million impact there.

    就投資組合的核心表現而言,我想我會指引你看一個簡單的算術:我們一直很清楚地說,這個被關注分項的回收缺口(recovery gap)估計約為 2,500 萬美元。值得注意的是,我們只是把指引的下緣上調了 2,000 萬美元。我認為這反映出:我們在投資組合其他分項、以及其他組成部分上看到的整體強勁表現,顯然足以抵銷那邊完整 2,500 萬美元影響中的大部分。

  • So I don't think I feel comfortable trying to give specific guidance by quarter. You're well familiar with the normal seasonal patterns that we have in the business. And those patterns, I think, continue to sort of mature and set. But I think we really have gone to great lines to try to delineate what we see as really a timing of recovery issue versus a credit issue and remain committed that based on everything we see today, we are optimistic about what we're seeing in the general credit performance.

    因此,我不覺得我適合嘗試按季度給出具體指引。你很熟悉我們業務一貫的季節性型態。而我認為這些型態也持續在成熟並逐步固定下來。但我想我們確實已經非常努力去釐清:我們看到的更像是回收時點(timing of recovery)問題,而不是信用問題;並且基於我們今天所看到的一切,我們仍然承諾並保持樂觀,認為整體信用品質表現是正向的。

  • Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

    Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks very much.

    很好。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

    KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

  • Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

    Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

  • Thank you. Pete, just a quick question on sort of the NIM rebound. Noticing sort of the loan yields, those have come down pretty meaningfully. Do you expect step up in those loan yields as we move through the back part of the year in terms of loan mix just to get back towards the 5%?

    謝謝。Pete,關於淨利差(NIM)回升我有個簡短問題。注意到貸款收益率已經相當明顯地下滑。你是否預期隨著今年下半年推進,因為貸款組合(mix)的變化,貸款收益率會回升,以回到接近 5% 的水準?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I think some of that's a little bit of a distortion by the fact that second quarter is kind of our lowest origination quarter and the mix of loans that are coming in. We fully expect that as we get into the heart of our peak season that traditional yield patterns will sort of start to reemerge.

    是的。我認為其中一部分是因為第二季大致是我們放款起始(origination)量最低的季度,以及進來的貸款組合所造成的一點扭曲。我們完全預期,當我們進入旺季的核心時段,傳統的收益率型態會開始重新浮現。

  • Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

    Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just another question on sort of the -- your expected gain on sale. I think when we looked at -- we calculated this quarter, it seemed to be higher than the typical 2% or so that you've been getting. Is that -- maybe you could just help us think about what's incorporated in your expectations for this year? And if there was anything different in the mix of the loans that you sold this quarter? Thank you.

    了解。另外再問一個關於你們預期的出售收益(gain on sale)問題。我想我們在計算本季時,看起來高於你們通常約 2% 左右的水準。這方面——也許你可以幫我們理解一下,你們今年的預期中納入了哪些因素?以及本季出售的貸款在組合上是否有任何不同?謝謝。

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I think -- yeah , certainly can address that. I think one thing to remember is when we're selling the newly originated loans, we're selling -- the price that we're getting upfront is both the initial disbursement as well as the gain on the second disbursement because that's just the way the accounting model works for selling an undisbursed loan that has [two component] parts.

    好的。我想——是的,當然可以回應。我認為要記得的一點是,當我們出售新發放的貸款時,我們前端拿到的價格同時包含了第一次撥款以及第二次撥款的出售收益,因為這就是會計模型在出售一筆尚未全數撥付、且具有[兩個組成]部分的貸款時的運作方式。

  • So that kind of front loads a little bit the gain with the newly originated loans. And so that might be the factor that's sort of putting you off a little bit. I think in totality, though, that kind of 2%-ish is a good target for the gain on sale for the flow-related loans. It will move around a little bit based on the pricing grids and other things. But I think in terms of trying to set a benchmark, that's probably a good place to start.

    因此,這會讓新發放貸款的收益在前期稍微被提前認列一些。所以這可能就是讓你有點卻步的因素。但我認為整體來看,約 2% 左右作為與流量相關貸款的出售收益目標是個不錯的水準。它會因定價格網和其他因素而有些波動。但若要設定一個基準,我覺得這大概是個不錯的起點。

  • Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

    Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

    好的。很好。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Terry Ma, Barclays.

    Terry Ma,巴克萊。

  • Terry Ma - Analyst

    Terry Ma - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. Good evening. Maybe just starting off the EPS guide. Can you kind of talk about what's kind of contemplated in the back half EPS guide? Seems to be about 15% higher in Street expectations right now. So like any color on the moving pieces would be helpful.

    嗨,謝謝。晚安。先從 EPS 指引開始。你能談談下半年 EPS 指引中包含了哪些假設嗎?看起來目前大約比市場一致預期高出 15%。所以如果能說明一下各項變動因素會很有幫助。

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Terry. Again, I think there's some moving parts here. Obviously, we talked about the change in our net charge-off guidance. So like we're operating in the higher end of our original plan there. And we -- although we've covered a portion of the anticipated impact from this segment of borrowers and changing our recovery strategy, we still got to get through that over the second half of this year.

    是的。謝謝你,Terry。再說一次,我認為這裡有一些變動因素。很明顯,我們談到了淨沖銷指引的變更。所以在那方面,我們的運作落在原先計畫的較高端。而且我們——雖然已經涵蓋了這一借款人族群以及調整回收策略所帶來的部分預期影響,但今年下半年我們仍需要把這段期間走完。

  • But that, based on other activities that we have in the second half of the year, we still feel there's a viable path for us to get up into the range that we had previously raised to last quarter. So we feel good about both our net charge-off updated range as well as the previously released range of earnings per share for the full year.

    但基於我們在今年下半年還有其他活動,我們仍然認為有一條可行的路徑,能讓我們達到上一季先前上調的區間。因此,我們對更新後的淨沖銷區間,以及先前公布的全年每股盈餘區間,都感到有信心。

  • Terry Ma - Analyst

    Terry Ma - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. And then if I think about credit for the second half, obviously, delinquencies this quarter improved sequentially. But as we look out to the back half, should we kind of expect the same seasonality that we saw last year with elevated delinquencies in the back half? You guys did have a sizable cohort exit extended grace this quarter.

    了解。好的。那如果我思考下半年的信用表現,顯然本季逾期率較前一季改善。但展望下半年,我們是否應該預期會出現和去年一樣的季節性,也就是下半年逾期偏高?你們這季確實有一個相當大的族群結束了延長寬限期。

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Terry, I think the general seasonal patterns are probably right. There's a few things that will affect delinquency trends that are worth just considering. Obviously, the size of the repayment wave, we know early to repayment borrowers tend to experience financial distress at a higher level. So if you have a larger wave this year than last year but a comparably sized portfolio, there can be some numerator denominator effect of that.

    是的。Terry,我認為一般的季節性型態大概是對的。有幾個會影響逾期趨勢的因素值得納入考量。很明顯,還款浪潮的規模——我們知道,較早進入還款的借款人往往會以較高的程度出現財務壓力。所以如果今年的浪潮比去年更大,但投資組合規模相近,就可能出現一些分子分母效應。

  • There will also be, Terry, over time, a modest impact driven by the fact that we are selling new originations now for the first time. And some of those new originations are defined as in repayment based on their sort of deferral status. And we know that loans that are in school tend to experience financial distress at a much lower rate.

    另外,Terry,隨著時間推移,也會有一個溫和的影響,來自於我們現在首次開始出售新發放貸款。而其中一些新發放貸款,會依其延期狀態等因素被定義為「進入還款」。我們也知道,在學中的貸款,其財務壓力發生率通常低得多。

  • So I think you've got a couple of those factors that are working that can move some of the seasonal patterns a little bit on the margin. But I think sort of the seasonal patterns, plus or minus, keeping in mind those types of considerations, yeah, it was probably the right ZIP code for you to be thinking about.

    所以我認為你有幾個因素在作用,可能會在邊際上讓一些季節性型態有所變動。但我認為整體的季節性型態,大致上是如此——在記得這些考量的前提下,上下略有差異——是的,這大概就是你應該思考的合理範圍。

  • Terry Ma - Analyst

    Terry Ma - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

    Don Fandetti,富國銀行。

  • Donald Fandetti - Analyst

    Donald Fandetti - Analyst

  • Hi, good evening. I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit more about the debt resolution situation? Just trying to better understand why the pause on all recovery sales. Couldn't you just sort of say we're not really open to debt resolutions? Just kind of walk through that a little bit? And is there anything that could change it would enable you to turn those back on? Or is this more of a permanent change?

    嗨,晚安。我想請你再多談一點債務和解(debt resolution)的情況?我只是想更清楚了解,為什麼要暫停所有回收資產出售。你們不能只是說我們其實不太接受債務和解嗎?能否稍微帶我們走一遍這個邏輯?以及是否有任何可能改變的因素,能讓你們重新啟動那些出售?還是這更像是一個永久性的改變?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, sure. So our broader recovery strategies are really based on an assumption that by the time the borrower gets into that part of our collection cycle, they've already gone through evaluation of their ability to pay. And the settlement levels in our traditional strategy was really based on an assumption that those borrowers didn't have an ability to pay.

    當然,當然。我們更廣泛的回收策略,基本上是建立在一個假設:當借款人進入我們催收流程的那個階段時,他們已經經過對其償付能力的評估。而我們傳統策略中的和解水準,實際上是基於一個假設:那些借款人沒有償付能力。

  • These resolution companies that we talked about are really targeting customers that do have an ability to pay and are relying on kind of the back door in our recoveries process to pick up the loans at a discount in a way that disadvantages the borrowers.

    我們提到的這些和解公司,實際上是在鎖定那些有償付能力的客戶,並且利用我們回收流程中的某種「後門」,以折價方式取得貸款,這會讓借款人處於不利地位。

  • So we made a decision which I talked at length at the prior conference about to sort of halt all of our debt sales and pull, for a time period, all recoveries in-house. Once we get a handle on how this is going to play out, we certainly have an ability to change our strategies and turn that back on.

    因此,我們做出了一個決定——我在上一場會議中已經詳細談過——就是暫停所有債權出售,並在一段時間內把所有回收作業收回內部處理。一旦我們掌握這件事將如何發展,我們當然有能力調整策略並重新啟動。

  • But in the short run, this is a way for us to get control of post charge-off recovery strategies. And it's a timing issue in large part because when we started our champion challenger a few years ago, what we've learned over time is our internal recovery strategies yield on balance, a higher return. And so it's really a question of in-year recoveries versus collecting over time.

    但在短期內,這是我們用來掌控沖銷後回收策略的一種方式。而且這在很大程度上是時點問題,因為幾年前我們啟動「champion challenger」後,隨著時間推移我們學到的是:我們內部的回收策略整體而言能帶來更高的回報。所以這其實是當年度回收與隨時間逐步回收之間的取捨問題。

  • Donald Fandetti - Analyst

    Donald Fandetti - Analyst

  • Got it. And then could you also talk about plans for season loan sales this year and just kind of balance sheet growth expectations?

    了解。另外,你也能談談今年分季的貸款出售計畫,以及對資產負債表成長的預期嗎?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, sure. When we started the year, we anticipated loan sales to sort of manage a flattish balance sheet this year. And when we accelerated the loan sale in the first quarter that I talked about and that allowed us to do the ASR program, we indicated that we likely would do modestly more loan sales this year and sized that at sort of $1 billion-ish more than what we otherwise would. Which would imply, all things equal, maybe a little bit of a down balance sheet.

    可以,當然。年初時,我們預期透過貸款出售來管理今年大致持平的資產負債表。而當我們在第一季加速了我提到的貸款出售、並讓我們得以執行 ASR 計畫(加速股票回購)時,我們也表示今年很可能會做略多一些的貸款出售,規模大約比原本會做的多出約 10 億美元左右。這表示在其他條件相同下,資產負債表可能會略為下降。

  • I think that's all contingent on what the level of originations we have during peak this year. But that's how you should think about it. We're probably $1 billion more loan sales than we otherwise would have done in our original guidance.

    我認為這一切都取決於今年旺季期間我們的放款量水準。但你應該這樣理解。我們今年的貸款出售大概會比原先指引下原本會做的多約 10 億美元。

  • Donald Fandetti - Analyst

    Donald Fandetti - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks.

    了解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

    Jeff Adelson,摩根士丹利。

  • Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good evening, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to circle back on the loan yield question real quickly. I think we looked at some of the typical seasonal trends you've seen historically. It didn't seem like the second quarter tended to be down that much. I know there's more noise with the sales you've been doing.

    嘿,晚安,各位。謝謝回答我的問題。我想很快再回到貸款收益率的問題。我想我們看了一些你們過去歷史上典型的季節性趨勢。看起來第二季通常不會下降那麼多。我知道你們正在進行的出售讓數據雜訊更大。

  • I guess I was just wondering, were there more higher-yielding loans being sold in the last two quarters? And I guess as we think about the yield recovery from here you mentioned, Pete, how do we balance that against, I think, one of the questions we've gotten from investors is with the partnership -- or not the partnership, the grad opportunity and the parent opportunity, those might be a little bit lower yielding. So just help us understand those puts and takes there a little bit better?

    我想我只是想了解一下,過去兩個季度出售的貸款中,是否有更多屬於較高收益的貸款?另外,當我們思考你提到的、從現在開始的收益率回升時,Pete,我們該如何在這之間取得平衡——我想投資人提出的一個問題是,關於合作夥伴——或者不是合作夥伴,而是研究生(Grad)機會與家長(Parent)機會,這些可能會是收益率稍低一些的產品。所以請幫助我們更好地理解其中的利弊權衡?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Let me start with the question about yields on the loan sales. I think our practice on loan sales has been pretty consistent over time. We attempt to select sort of random sample of our existing book. Largely, that is driven by the concentration limits that the rating agencies put around the ultimate securitization takeout.

    是的。我先從貸款出售的收益率問題開始。我認為我們在貸款出售上的做法,長期以來一直相當一致。我們會嘗試從現有資產組合中挑選某種隨機樣本。這在很大程度上是由評級機構針對最終證券化退出(securitization takeout)所設定的集中度上限所驅動。

  • So that really hasn't changed, and that's been pretty consistent over time. The partnership loan selection process follows a similar kind of concentration approach and grid for pricing. So no adverse selection one way or the other between our bank book for investment and the partnership programs.

    所以這點其實沒有改變,而且長期以來都相當一致。合作夥伴貸款的挑選流程也遵循類似的集中度方法與定價網格。因此,在我們銀行自持投資的資產組合與合作夥伴方案之間,不存在任何一方的逆向選擇。

  • In terms of the path from here to the end of the year, keep in mind that carrying the extra liquidity is the real thing, more so than yields on the loans. And so we're carrying around a lot of extra liquidity that's invested at cash rates that we wouldn't have otherwise done. And in our original plan, we would have done a loan sale in the second quarter much closer to when we need the liquidity for our peak season.

    至於從現在到年底的路徑,請記住,真正的因素是持有額外流動性,而不是貸款本身的收益率。因此我們目前持有大量額外流動性,並以現金利率進行投資,而在其他情況下我們本不會這麼做。在我們原先的計畫中,我們會在第二季進行一次貸款出售,而且時間會更接近我們在旺季需要流動性的時點。

  • So as that investment balance gets pulled down and reinvested into higher-yielding loans, we'll blend back to an overall NIM level that's more in line for the full year with our long-term guidance. Now we'll be a little bit above 5% or a little bit below 5%. That will be dependent on how the rest of the year materializes. But I think, again, it's a temporary thing in year, driven largely by timing of when we generated that liquidity.

    因此,當那個投資餘額被拉低,並重新投入到收益率更高的貸款時,我們的整體淨利差(NIM)就會回到更符合全年、也更貼近我們長期指引的水準。屆時我們可能會略高於5%,或略低於5%。這將取決於今年剩餘時間的實際發展情況。但我認為,再次強調,這是年度內的暫時性因素,主要由我們產生那筆流動性的時間點所驅動。

  • Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. And Pete, you talked over the opportunity to get the efficiency ratio down to the low 30% once you exit this growth phase. How should we think about the near-term, medium-term path here, what that looks like? And how long it might take you to get back down to a mid-30%? And just maybe talk about how the second strategic partnership helps you get there in that journey?

    好的。謝謝。另外,Pete,你提到一旦走出這個成長階段,就有機會把效率比率降到30%出頭。我們應該如何看待短期、中期的路徑會是什麼樣子?以及你大概需要多久才能回到35%左右的水準?也請談談第二個策略性合作夥伴關係,如何在這段旅程中幫助你達成目標?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, sure. We -- when we set out our guidance for this year on noninterest expenses, we kind of gave an additional a bit of information that sort of a little bit of a forward look on '27 that we thought the rate of growth going into next year would be roughly half the rate of growth that we've had from last year to this year. We're not ready to update that at this point. I'd say we'd like to do better than that. And if we do better than that, then we'll get to that kind of low to mid-30s rate in a much more rapid fashion.

    好的,當然。我們——在制定今年的非利息費用指引時,也額外提供了一些資訊,算是對2027年的一點前瞻:我們認為進入明年後的成長率,大約會是從去年到今年成長率的一半左右。目前我們還沒準備好在此時更新那個看法。我會說,我們希望能做得比那更好。如果我們能做得更好,那麼我們就能更快達到那種30%出頭到30%中段的效率比率水準。

  • With regard to the partnerships, as we build this fee-based revenue, that obviously adds to the mix in terms of the top line denominator of the efficiency ratio. So we've had a growth in fee-based revenue in excess of 50% year-over-year off a small base, admittedly.

    至於合作夥伴關係,當我們建立這種以手續費為基礎的收入時,顯然會增加效率比率分母(營收端)的組成。因此,我們的手續費型收入年增率已超過50%,當然基期確實較小。

  • But based on the scaling that's happening with these loan sales, we'll continue to build -- even with just the first partnership, we'll build significantly going into -- from this year to next on both basis of the program management fees, the base fees there as well as we'll start to get to the point where we kick into the additional performance fees. The servicing fees will continue to build as we get scale in these partnerships. And the second partnership will just add additional scale to that.

    但基於這些貸款出售所帶來的規模化,我們將持續建立——即使只靠第一個合作夥伴,我們從今年到明年也會在多個面向顯著成長:包括方案管理費(program management fees)、基礎費用(base fees),以及我們也會開始進入可觸發額外績效費(performance fees)的階段。隨著這些合作夥伴關係規模擴大,服務費(servicing fees)也會持續增加。而第二個合作夥伴將在此基礎上再增加額外的規模。

  • I also mentioned that we intend to expand the partnerships going into next year before next year's peak to cover grad volume that will start to originate this year. And that will be important for us to have those facilities as we have the real increase in opportunity from the PLUS reform.

    我也提到,我們打算在明年、在明年旺季之前擴大合作夥伴關係,以涵蓋今年將開始承作的研究生(Grad)放款量。而當我們因PLUS改革而迎來真正的機會增加時,擁有這些融資/承作額度(facilities)對我們會很重要。

  • So like that's all building towards a really positive trajectory for capitalized fee-based revenue, as well as we will get past this year one investment that we've needed to make to get ready for PLUS, and we'll start to normalize and get more efficient in our marketing efforts and other efforts around the core business.

    所以,這些都在推動資本化的手續費型收入(capitalized fee-based revenue)走向非常正向的軌跡;同時,我們也會度過今年為了因應PLUS所必須投入的一次性投資,之後我們將開始正常化,並在行銷投入以及核心業務的其他投入上變得更有效率。

  • Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. If I could just squeeze in a third. I apologize. Just what about the balance sheet growth impact of the third? I mean just any update on how you're thinking about the balance sheet growth once that comes through?

    好的。很好。如果我可以再塞第三個問題。不好意思。第三個(合作/方案)對資產負債表成長的影響呢?我是說,有沒有任何更新,關於一旦那個落地後,你們如何看待資產負債表的成長?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I think, again, for this year, we're probably flat to a little down depending on what the overall level of originations are during the peak season. I think we would probably have some modest growth aspirations for the balance sheet in 2027, and then we'll probably start to trend back to kind of a mid -- low to mid-single-digit kind of rate of growth of the bank's balance sheet as we move forward.

    我認為,同樣地,就今年而言,我們可能是持平到小幅下降,取決於旺季期間整體承作量的水準。我認為在2027年,我們可能會對資產負債表有一些溫和的成長目標;之後,隨著我們往前推進,銀行資產負債表的成長率大概會回到低到中個位數的區間。

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And I would just add, I think we provided a little bit of commentary on this in the fourth quarter earnings announcement in January. I don't think our thinking has changed at all since that time.

    是的。我只想補充,我想我們在1月公布第四季財報時,對此提供過一些評論。自那時以來,我不認為我們的想法有任何改變。

  • Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Adelson - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. Thank you, guys.

    好的。完美。謝謝各位。

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Hecht, Jefferies.

    Jefferies 的 John Hecht。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hello. This is Yuna on John Hecht's line. I had one more question on the NIM. So with as previously mentioned on the Grad program likely bearing lower yield, shorter duration, mix with the forward flow -- additional forward flow that may or may not change how you think about the balance sheet growth, what would -- what kind of factors or moving pieces would get you to reevaluate the medium-term NIM target? And is that kind of how you're thinking about it for 2027?

    你好。我是 John Hecht 線上的 Yuna。我還有一個關於淨利差(NIM)的问题。如先前提到,研究生(Grad)方案可能帶來較低收益率、較短存續期間,再加上與遠期流轉(forward flow)混合——額外的遠期流轉可能會、也可能不會改變你們對資產負債表成長的看法——那麼,哪些因素或變動項目會讓你們重新評估中期的NIM目標?而這是否就是你們對2027年的思考方式?

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. First, let me just address a couple of the points you made on the Grad opportunity. I don't know that it's necessarily significantly lower yields on the assets. And certainly, I don't think it's necessarily a shorter duration. I think there's -- there will be a mix issue of MBA loans will be very short, but medical and dental and other programs like that will be much longer than -- and much higher balances than our traditional undergrad products.

    是的。首先,讓我先回應你提到的幾點關於研究生(Grad)機會的看法。我不確定這些資產的收益率一定會顯著更低。而且我當然也不認為它一定會是較短的存續期間。我認為會有——組合上的因素:MBA貸款會非常短,但醫學、牙醫以及其他類似的項目,期限會長得多——而且其貸款餘額也會比我們傳統的大學部(undergrad)產品高得多。

  • So I think it's hard for us to answer that perfectly until we get through our first peak season of originations and understand what the mix of this opportunity is going to look like. So as a result of that, it's really hard for me to give any other guidance on forward look, other than I think by the end of this year, for the full year, we'll be close to that 5%, if not a little bit over. And over the longer term, we have not updated our point of view that deviates from our past long-term guidance of kind of low to mid-5% range for NIM.

    所以我認為,在我們經歷第一個放款高峰季、並了解這個機會的組合會長什麼樣之前,我們很難把這個問題回答得非常精準。因此,除了我認為到今年年底、以全年來看,我們會接近 5%,甚至可能略高一些之外,我很難再對前瞻展望提供其他指引。而從更長期來看,我們也沒有更新或改變我們過去的長期指引;也就是淨利差(NIM)大致落在 5% 的低到中段區間。

  • John Hecht - Analyst

    John Hecht - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe on the -- after the 2026 class graduating in May/June. Is there any data that you can share about their employment trends, what you see or what your expectation might be for the repayment for the second half? On that note.

    了解。另外,關於 2026 屆在 5 月/6 月畢業之後。你們是否有任何數據可以分享他們的就業趨勢、你們看到的情況,或你們對下半年還款情形可能的預期?就這點而言。

  • Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

    Peter Graham - Co-President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I think it's too early. I mean, those grads are still in their grace period. So like we won't really start to see any meaningful data on that until we get into the fall and they get into repayment. I think broadly, the headlines are indicating that employers are hiring, which is a little different than the headlines last summer. But I think it's really just too early to make a call on anything like that.

    我認為現在還太早。我的意思是,那些畢業生仍在寬限期內。所以我們要到秋季、他們開始進入還款後,才會真正看到任何有意義的數據。整體而言,新聞標題顯示雇主正在招募人手,這和去年夏天的標題有些不同。但我認為現在真的還太早,無法對這類事情做出判斷。

  • John Hecht - Analyst

    John Hecht - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caroline Latta, Bank of America.

    美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Caroline Latta。

  • Caroline Latta - Analyst

    Caroline Latta - Analyst

  • Hi. So maybe just heading into peak season, can you give us an update on the competitive landscape in the graduate market in terms of like any changes in pricing or the credit box? And then also, I think you guys talked about how the new products are trending pretty well, but are there any specific products or markets where you're sort of meaningfully exceeding the expectations you guys had internally?

    嗨。那麼也許在進入高峰季之前,你們能否就研究生市場的競爭態勢提供最新情況,例如定價或授信標準(credit box)是否有任何變化?另外,我想你們提到新產品的趨勢表現相當不錯,但是否有任何特定產品或市場,明顯超出你們內部原先的預期?

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Caroline. Sitting here in middle of July, peak is really just a couple of days old. And so I think it's hard to sort of infer too much at this point. I think most of what we could talk about are sort of things that we've seen leading up to peak. And as I've described this in the past, I think typically, we have seen pretty rational pricing. I think that continues.

    好的,Caroline。現在是 7 月中旬,高峰季其實才剛開始幾天。所以我認為此刻很難從中推論出太多。我想我們能談的多半是高峰季開始之前我們所看到的一些情況。如同我過去所描述的,我認為通常我們看到的定價都相當理性。我認為這點仍然持續。

  • I think we have seen some modest pressure on sort of marketing expense and some modest increases in marketing activity, nothing that I think we would view as being particularly out of the norm for things that we did not anticipate as a potential eventuality and plan for in sort of our outlook and sort of strategy.

    我認為我們確實看到行銷費用有一些溫和的壓力,以及行銷活動有一些溫和的增加;但沒有任何我們會認為特別異常的情況,也沒有超出我們原先預期、並已在展望與策略中納入規劃的可能情境。

  • So I think it's sort of progressing as we thought it would at this point, again, with maybe a little bit of sort of upward marketing pressure. But I think it's fair to say we will know much more over the course of the next month or two. And peak season is not long. It's 8, 10 weeks. And certainly, by the time we get to the third quarter, we'll have a good sense of that.

    所以我認為目前的進展大致符合我們的預期,只是行銷方面可能有些許上行壓力。但我認為可以合理地說,在接下來一到兩個月的過程中,我們會知道得更多。而高峰季並不長。大約是 8 到 10 週。當然,等到第三季時,我們就會對此有很好的掌握。

  • And I think likewise, in terms of volumes, it's hard to know. Obviously, the most important measure is disbursements. It's just we haven't started disbursing yet. That's not the point we are in, in the academic calendar. I think the data we provided in the investor presentation on application rates is probably the sort of best early indicator that we have of general activity levels.

    同樣地,就量能而言,也很難判斷。顯然最重要的衡量指標是撥款(disbursements)。只是我們還沒有開始撥款。在學年行事曆上,現在還不到那個階段。我認為我們在投資人簡報中提供的申請率數據,可能是我們目前對整體活動水準最好的早期指標。

  • And as I said in my comments, I think we are encouraged by those activity levels. They are by product listed out and sort of at or slightly above our expectations for this point. But again, all of that with the caveat, it's early, but we like what we are seeing so far.

    正如我在評論中所說,我認為我們對這些活動水準感到鼓舞。按產品拆分來看,目前大致符合或略高於我們在此時點的預期。但同樣要加上但書:現在還早,不過我們喜歡目前看到的情況。

  • Caroline Latta - Analyst

    Caroline Latta - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thanks.

    好的。很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I would now like to turn the floor over to Mr. Jon Witter for closing remarks.

    謝謝。今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。接下來我想把時間交給 Jon Witter 先生做結語。

  • Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jonathan Witter - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Thank you, Madison. I appreciate your help today and appreciate everyone's time and attention this afternoon. Obviously, if you have questions, please feel free to reach out to our IR team. They stand by ready and willing to help.

    很好。謝謝你,Madison。感謝你今天的協助,也感謝大家今天下午撥冗參與並專注聆聽。顯然,如果你們有任何問題,請隨時聯繫我們的投資人關係(IR)團隊。他們隨時待命,樂意提供協助。

  • We look forward to talking to you again in the third quarter and updating you on what we hope will be a really successful peak season. And until then, again, thank you for your interest in Sallie Mae. Have a good evening. Oh, I'm sorry, Kate, we're turning it back to you for some closing business.

    我們期待在第三季再次與各位交流,並向各位更新我們希望會非常成功的高峰季進展。在那之前,再次感謝各位對 Sallie Mae 的關注。祝各位晚安。喔,不好意思,Kate,我們把時間交回給你做一些結束事項。

  • Kate De Lacy - Senior Director, Head of Investor Relations

    Kate De Lacy - Senior Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Jon. Thank you for all your time and questions today. A replay of this call of the presentation will be available on the Investors page at salliemae.com. If you have any further questions, feel free to contact me directly. This concludes today's call.

    謝謝你,Jon。也謝謝大家今天撥冗並提出問題。本次電話會議的重播與簡報將會在 salliemae.com 的投資人頁面提供。如果你還有任何問題,歡迎直接與我聯繫。今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's Sallie Mae second quarter 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful evening.

    謝謝。Sallie Mae 2026 年第二季財報電話會議與網路直播到此結束。請於此時掛斷電話,祝各位有個美好的夜晚。