SLM Corp (SLM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Sallie Mae 2023 Q4 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to Melissa Bronaugh. You may begin.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Sallie Mae 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給 Melissa Bronaugh。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Towanda. Good evening, and welcome to Sallie Mae's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. It is my pleasure to be here today with Jon Witter, our CEO; and Pete Graham, our CFO. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

謝謝你，托旺達。晚上好，歡迎參加 Sallie Mae 的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我很高興今天能與我們的執行長 Jon Witter 一起來到這裡。和我們的財務長皮特·格雷厄姆（Pete Graham）。在準備好發言後，我們將開始提問。

Before we begin, keep in mind, our discussion will contain predictions, expectations and forward-looking statements. Actual results in the future may be materially different from those discussed here. This can be due to a variety of factors. Listeners should refer to the discussion of those factors on the company's Form 10-Q and other filings with the SEC. For Sallie Mae, these factors include, among others, results of operations, financial conditions and/or cash flows as well as any potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business.

在我們開始之前，請記住，我們的討論將包含預測、期望和前瞻性陳述。未來的實際結果可能與此處討論的結果大不相同。這可能是由多種因素造成的。聽眾應該參考公司向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格和其他文件中對這些因素的討論。對於 Sallie Mae 來說，這些因素包括經營業績、財務狀況和/或現金流以及 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的任何潛在影響。

During this conference call, we will refer to non-GAAP measures we call our core earnings. A description of core earnings, a full reconciliation to GAAP measures and our GAAP results can be found in the earnings supplement for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. This is posted along with the earnings press release and the earnings presentation on the Investors page at salliemae.com. Thank you. And now I'll turn the call over to Jon.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考我們稱為核心收益的非公認會計原則衡量標準。有關核心收益的描述、根據GAAP 指標進行的全面調節以及我們的GAAP 結果可在截至2023 年12 月31 日的季度收益補充資料中找到。該補充資料與收益新聞稿和收益演示一起發佈在投資者頁面上，網址為： salliemae.com。謝謝。現在我將把電話轉給喬恩。

Thank you, Melissa and Towanda. Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Sallie Mae's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results.

謝謝梅麗莎和托旺達。各位晚上好。感謝您今天加入我們討論 Sallie Mae 的第四季度和 2023 年全年業績。

I'm pleased to report on a successful year and discuss our outlook for 2024. I hope you'll take away 3 key messages today. First, we delivered strong results in 2023. Second, our credit performance is in line with the expectations we laid out in the beginning of the year, and we anticipate that we will experience continued improvement in the coming year. And third, we believe we have strong momentum entering 2024 and are well positioned to deliver on the investment thesis we introduced approximately a month ago.

我很高興向您報告成功的一年並討論我們對 2024 年的展望。我希望您今天能掌握 3 個關鍵資訊。首先，我們在 2023 年取得了強勁的業績。其次，我們的信用表現符合我們年初的預期，我們預計來年將持續改善。第三，我們相信進入 2024 年我們有強勁的勢頭，並且有能力實現我們大約一個月前提出的投資理念。

Let me begin with the discussion of 2023 results. GAAP diluted EPS in the fourth quarter was $0.72 compared to a loss of $0.33 a share in Q4 of 2022. Our full year GAAP diluted EPS was $2.41 compared to $1.76 in 2022. Without the noncash write-down of the intangible asset associated with the Nitro trade name and trademark, which Pete will discuss in more detail, GAAP diluted EPS would have been $0.91 for Q4 and $2.59 for the year, well within our guidance expectations for 2023.

讓我先討論 2023 年的業績。第四季GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為0.72 美元，而2022 年第四季每股虧損0.33 美元。我們全年GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為2.41 美元，而2022 年為1.76 美元。沒有與Nitro 相關的無形資產的非現金減記根據皮特將更詳細討論的商號和商標，按照GAAP 計算，第四季度攤薄後每股收益將為0.91 美元，全年攤薄後每股收益為2.59 美元，完全符合我們對2023 年的指導預期。

Private education loan originations for the fourth quarter of '23 were $839 million, which is up 2% over fourth quarter of 2022. Consistent with guidance provided on our last earnings call, our full year originations ended at approximately $6.4 billion, which is up 7% over 2022.

2023 年第四季的私人教育貸款發放額為8.39 億美元，比2022 年第四季成長2%。與我們上次財報電話會議上提供的指引一致，我們全年的發放額約為64 億美元，比2022 年第四季成長了 7%。2022 年以上百分比。

Application volume also increased year-over-year by 10%, and has been fueled by a 12% increase in under class applications. This is especially important given the greater serialization potential and lifetime value of this group.

申請量也較去年同期增加了 10%，其中類別申請量增加了 12%。考慮到該組具有更大的序列化潛力和生命週期價值，這一點尤其重要。

In a year where students return to campus in record numbers post pandemic, we are pleased that we were able to maintain our 55% share of the private student loan lending market according to the most recent industry report. Credit quality of originations was consistent with past years. Our cosigner rate for the fourth quarter of '23 was 84%, up slightly from 82% in the fourth quarter of '22. Our average FICO score for the fourth quarter of '23 was 750, an increase over the fourth quarter of 2022 at 747. For the full year, our originations were 87% co-signed and had an average FICO score of 748, both improvements over full year 2022.

疫情結束後，今年學生返校人數創歷史新高，根據最新的行業報告，我們很高興能夠維持私人學生貸款市場 55% 的份額。起源的信用品質與往年一致。我們 2023 年第四季的聯合簽章率為 84%，略高於 22 年第四季的 82%。我們23 年第四季的平均FICO 分數為750 分，比2022 年第四季的747 分有所增加。全年來看，我們的原創作品有87% 是聯署的，平均FICO 分數為748 分，兩者均比 2022 年第四季有所提高。2022 年 全年。

We remain focused on credit and our path back to normalcy and are pleased that we have seen the expected improvement in performance this year. We ended the year with net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans and repayment of 2.4% and at the lower end of our net charge-off guidance for the year at $375 million.

我們仍然關注信貸和恢復正常的道路，並很高興看到今年業績的預期改善。截至年底，我們的淨沖銷占平均貸款和還款的百分​​比為 2.4%，處於今年淨沖銷指引的下限，為 3.75 億美元。

Having assessed the underwriting, programmatic and operational changes made to date and segmented the performance of our portfolio, we continue to believe that the right net charge-off goal for our portfolio is the high 1s to low 2% range. Understanding that we won't see a reversion to those rates immediately, we are happy with the progress made from '22 to '23 and expect continued progress from '23 into '24, of course, assuming no changes to the broader economic environment.

在評估了迄今為止所做的承保、計劃和運營方面的變化並對我們的投資組合的業績進行了細分後，我們仍然認為，我們投資組合的正確淨沖銷目標是從高1% 到低2 % 的範圍。我們知道我們不會立即恢復到這些利率，因此我們對 22 至 23 年間的進展感到滿意，並預計 23 至 24 年間繼續取得進展，當然，假設更廣泛的經濟環境沒有變化。

We did see a rise in delinquencies in the fourth quarter to 3.9%. We believe this is largely the mechanical result of borrowers enrolling in new programs who are in their qualifying period versus a broader worsening of performance. In fact, we are seeing early indicators of success of our new payment programs, and in December, observed the lowest roll to default rate in over 2 years.

我們確實看到第四季的拖欠率上升至 3.9%。我們認為，這在很大程度上是由於借款人在符合資格期間參加新計劃而不是更廣泛的表現惡化而導致的機械結果。事實上，我們已經看到了新支付計劃成功的早期跡象，並且在 12 月份，我們觀察到了兩年多來最低的違約率。

Turning to capital return. In the fourth quarter of '23, we repurchased 6 million shares at an average price of $15.43. We have reduced the shares outstanding since January 1 of '23 by 9% at an average price per share of $15.64 and by approximately 50% since January 1, 2020, at an average price of $15.93.

轉向資本回報。 2023 年第四季度，我們以 15.43 美元的平均價格回購了 600 萬股股票。自 2023 年 1 月 1 日起，我們已將流通股減少了 9%，平均價格為 15.64 美元，自 2020 年 1 月 1 日以來，已減少約 50%，平均價格為 15.93 美元。

Before I hand the call over to Pete, I'm pleased to share that last week, we agreed to indicative pricing terms for the sale of approximately $2 billion of private education loans. We expect the transaction to close in early February. With general market improvements in the Consumer Lending segment during the fourth quarter of '23 as well as the improvements we saw in ABS spreads, we are encouraged by the price that we received, which is in line with our expectations for the year.

在我將電話轉交給皮特之前，我很高興地告訴大家，上週我們同意了出售約 20 億美元私人教育貸款的指示性定價條款。我們預計交易將於二月初完成。隨著 2023 年第四季消費者貸款領域整體市場的改善以及 ABS 利差的改善，我們對收到的價格感到鼓舞，這符合我們今年的預期。

We expect to sell additional loans in 2024. Market conditions will dictate the timing of additional sales and volume will be driven by our balance sheet growth targets. We expect our balance sheet growth to be in line with or slightly above the strategy we shared at our Investor Forum just a month ago, roughly 2% to 3% balance sheet growth in 2024. Pete will now take you through some additional financial highlights of the quarter. Pete, over to you.

我們預計在 2024 年出售額外貸款。市場狀況將決定額外銷售的時間，而數量將由我們的資產負債表成長目標驅動。我們預計我們的資產負債表增長將與我們一個月前在投資者論壇上分享的策略一致或略高於我們，即2024 年資產負債表增長約2% 至3%。皮特現在將帶您了解一些額外的財務亮點該季度。皮特，交給你了。

Thanks, Jon. Good evening, everyone. Let's continue with a discussion of our loan loss allowance and provision. Our total provision for credit losses on our income statement was $16 million in the fourth quarter. The provision build of $86 million was driven almost entirely by volume increases and was offset by a $69 million reduction associated with the $1 billion loan sale that closed in the fourth quarter.

謝謝，喬恩。各位晚上好。讓我們繼續討論我們的貸款損失準備和撥備。第四季損益表上的信用損失撥備總額為 1,600 萬美元。 8,600 萬美元的撥備增加幾乎完全是由數量增加推動的，並被第四季度結束的 10 億美元貸款銷售相關的 6,900 萬美元減少所抵消。

This fourth quarter provision represents a decrease of $182 million from the prior quarter and a $282 million decrease from the year ago quarter. Net charge-offs for our private education loan portfolio in the fourth quarter were $93 million or 2.4% compared to $116 million or 3.1% in the year ago quarter.

第四季撥備比上一季減少 1.82 億美元，比去年同期減少 2.82 億美元。第四季我們私人教育貸款組合的淨沖銷額為 9,300 萬美元，即 2.4%，而去年同期為 1.16 億美元，即 3.1%。

Full year net charge-offs were $375 million or 2.4% and at the low end of our guidance for the year. These provisions and net charge-offs in the fourth quarter reduced our private education loan reserve to $1.4 billion or 5.9% of our total student loan exposure, which under CECL includes the on-balance sheet portfolio plus the accrued interest receivable of $1.4 billion and unfunded loan commitments of $2.2 billion. Our reserve rate continues to improve as compared to 6% in the third quarter of this year and 6.3% at the end of 2022.

全年淨沖銷額為 3.75 億美元，即 2.4%，處於我們今年指導的低端。這些撥備和第四季的淨沖銷將我們的私人教育貸款準備金減少至14 億美元，佔學生貸款總額的5.9%，根據CECL，其中包括資產負債表內投資組合加上14 億美元的應計應收利息和無資金準備的貸款承諾22億美元。與今年第三季的 6% 和 2022 年底的 6.3% 相比，我們的準備率持續提高。

Private education loans delinquent 30 days or more are 3.9% of loans and repayment, an increase over 3.7% at the end of the third quarter as well as 3.8% at the end of the year ago quarter. We believe this uptick in delinquencies is primarily driven by the increase in enrollment in our new loss mitigation programs that Jon discussed earlier rather than a negative credit indicator.

拖欠30天或以上的民辦教育貸款佔貸款和還款的3.9%，較第三季末成長3.7%，比去年同期末成長3.8%。我們認為，拖欠率上升主要是由於喬恩之前討論過的新減損計劃的註冊人數增加，而不是負面信用指標。

Year after year, our quality loan portfolio generated significant net interest income. For the full year of 2023, we earned $1.6 billion of net interest income, higher than full year 2022. Net interest margin for 2023 was 5.5% compared to 5.3% in 2022. Going into 2024, we continue to expect our NIM to be in the low to mid-5% range.

年復一年，我們的優質貸款組合產生了可觀的淨利息收入。 2023 年全年，我們獲得了16 億美元的淨利息收入，高於2022 年全年。2023 年的淨利差為5.5%，而2022 年為5.3%。進入2024 年，我們繼續預計我們的淨息差將在低至中 5% 的範圍。

Fourth quarter operating expenses were $143 million compared to $167 million in the prior quarter and $138 million in the year ago quarter. Operating expenses are down from the prior quarter, which was our peak lending season. Total noninterest expenses in the fourth quarter were $202 million compared to $170 million in the prior quarter and $140 million in the year ago quarter. The increase to noninterest expenses in the fourth quarter related to the write-down associated with the Nitro trade name and trademark. We continue to be very pleased with our acquisition of Nitro as it has helped us build a more resilient marketing model and driven down our cost to acquire.

第四季營運費用為 1.43 億美元，上一季營運費用為 1.67 億美元，去年同期營運費用為 1.38 億美元。營運費用比上一季下降，上一季是我們的貸款高峰。第四季非利息支出總額為 2.02 億美元，上一季為 1.7 億美元，去年同期為 1.4 億美元。第四季非利息支出的增加與 Nitro 商品名稱和商標相關的減記有關。我們對收購 Nitro 仍然感到非常滿意，因為它幫助我們建立了更具彈性的行銷模式並降低了收購成本。

Interestingly, as we've integrated Nitro and begun to test the effectiveness of the programs and strategies, we've seen performance meaningfully better using the Sallie, the Sallie Mae names and platforms. For example, in testing performance with one of our affiliate channels, the Sallie Mae brand performed 68% better than the Nitro brand in measuring conversion rates. We believe that continuing to build on the Sallie and Sallie Mae platforms will accelerate growth.

有趣的是，當我們整合 Nitro 並開始測試計劃和策略的有效性時，我們發現使用 Sallie、Sallie Mae 名稱和平台的性能明顯更好。例如，在測試我們的一個聯盟的表現時，Sallie Mae 品牌在衡量轉換率方面比 Nitro 品牌高出 68%。我們相信，繼續在 Sallie 和 Sallie Mae 平台上發展將加速成長。

With this decision to stop using the Nitro brand, we determined that the intangible asset associated with the Nitro trade name and trademark will be written down to 0. As a reminder, this was an intangible asset established using a 10-year life that would continue to incur amortization expense of approximately $7 million per year until 2031. The decision to write this asset down this year resulted in a noncash charge of $56 million. That impacted earnings per share for the quarter by $0.19 and for the year by $0.18. Absent this write-down, noninterest expenses would have been $146 million in the fourth quarter and $629 million for the full year, within our guidance expectations.

隨著停止使用 Nitro 品牌的決定，我們決定與 Nitro 商品名稱和商標相關的無形資產將減記為 0。提醒一下，這是一項使用 10 年壽命建立的無形資產，將繼續使用到2031 年，每年將產生約700 萬美元的攤銷費用。今年減記該資產的決定導致了5,600 萬美元的非現金費用。這影響了本季每股收益 0.19 美元，全年每股收益 0.18 美元。如果沒有這項減記，第四季的非利息支出將為 1.46 億美元，全年的非利息支出將為 6.29 億美元，符合我們的指導預期。

Finally, our liquidity and capital positions are solid. We ended the quarter with liquidity of 21.4% of total assets. At the end of the fourth quarter, total risk-based capital was 13.6% and common equity Tier 1 capital was 12.3%. Another measure of loss absorption capacity on the balance sheet is GAAP equity plus loan loss reserves over risk-weighted assets, which was a very strong 15.8%. We believe we're well positioned to grow our business and return capital to shareholders going forward. Now I'll turn the call back to Jon.

最後，我們的流動性和資本狀況穩固。本季末，我們的流動性佔總資產的 21.4%。截至第四季末，總創投為13.6%，普通股一級資本為12.3%。資產負債表上衡量損失吸收能力的另一個指標是 GAAP 權益加上貸款損失準備金與風險加權資產之比，達到了非常高的 15.8%。我們相信，我們有能力發展我們的業務，並在未來向股東返還資本。現在我會把電話轉回給喬恩。

Thanks, Pete. 2023 was a year of incredible progress. We feel like we're on the right path to normalizing credit and are happy to finish 2023 with credit performance consistent with our previous expectations. We experienced excellent originations growth in '23 and expect considerable originations growth in '24 and '25 as one of our largest competitors exit the business.

謝謝，皮特。 2023 年是取得令人難以置信的進步的一年。我們認為我們正走在信貸正常化的正確道路上，並很高興在 2023 年結束時信貸表現與我們先前預期的一致。我們在 23 年經歷了出色的起源增長，並預計隨著我們最大的競爭對手之一退出該業務，在 24 和 25 年將出現可觀的起源增長。

We were also able to return meaningful capital to shareholders through the successful loan sale and share buyback arbitrage strategy and are already seeing positive momentum in this space for 2024. Just over a month ago in our Investor Forum, we introduced an investment thesis built on 4 principles: first, strong and predictable balance sheet growth; second, strong EPS performance and return on common equity; third, meaningful capital return; and fourth, all within manageable risk.

我們也能夠透過成功的貸款出售和股票回購套利策略向股東返還有有意義的資本，並且已經看到2024 年該領域的積極勢頭。就在一個多月前，在我們的投資者論壇上，我們介紹了基於4 的投資論文原則：第一，資產負債表強勁且可預測的成長；其次，強勁的每股盈餘表現及普通股報酬率；第三，有意義的資本回報；第四，一切都在可管理的風險範圍內。

As we embark on the next year, we expect to deliver on these principles. We believe that meaningful origination expansion, coupled with loan sales to moderate growth and the steadfast focus on expense management will allow for both organic earnings growth and generous capital return to shareholders. It is in this context, I'd like to provide our guidance for 2024. Specifically, we expect full year Education loan origination growth of 7% to 8%, total loan portfolio net charge-offs will be between $340 million and $370 million or 2.2% to 2.4% of average loans in repayment, noninterest expenses for the full year of 2024 to be between $635 million and $655 million and full year diluted non-GAAP core earnings per share between $2.60 and $2.70.

當我們進入明年時，我們希望能夠實現這些原則。我們相信，有意義的發起擴張，加上貸款銷售的溫和增長以及對費用管理的堅定關注，將帶來有機盈利增長和股東豐厚的資本回報。正是在這種背景下，我想提供我們對2024 年的指導。具體來說，我們預計全年教育貸款發放增長率為7% 至8%，貸款組合淨沖銷總額將在3.4 億美元至3.7億美元之間，或平均償還貸款的2.2% 至2.4%，2024 年全年非利息支出將在6.35 億美元至6.55 億美元之間，全年攤薄後非GAAP 核心每股收益將在2.60 美元至2.70 美元之間。

In addition, today, we are announcing a new share repurchase authority to buy up to $650 million of common stock over the next 2 years. Well dependent on share price continued planned loan sales and other factors, we expect to repurchase roughly half in 2024 and the remainder in 2025. We expect to continue programmatically buying back our stock over the next 2 years and look for opportunities to buy more on days when market conditions are favorable. We continue to support our longer-term capital return plans and our clear commitment to shareholder return. With that, Pete, let's go ahead and open up the call for some questions. Thank you.

此外，今天，我們還宣布一項新的股票回購授權，可在未來 2 年內購買高達 6.5 億美元的普通股。很大程度上取決於股價、持續計劃的貸款銷售和其他因素，我們預計將在2024 年回購約一半，並在2025 年回購剩餘的股票。我們預計在未來2 年內繼續有計劃地回購我們的股票，並尋找機會在幾天內回購更多股票當市場條件有利時。我們繼續支持我們的長期資本回報計劃以及我們對股東回報的明確承諾。皮特，接下來，讓我們開始問一些問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Arren Cyganovich with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Arren Cyganovich。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

We can hear you, Arren.

我們聽得到你的聲音，阿倫。

Got it. Sorry about that. So it looks like you have some modest market share increase assumed with one of your larger competitors exiting the market this year -- for next year. Are there any other kind of items of note that you have included in there in terms of like enrollment trends, et cetera, for the '24-'25 academic year?

知道了。對於那個很抱歉。因此，假設您的較大競爭對手之一今年（明年）退出市場，您的市場份額將會略有增加。您是否也包含了「24-25 學年的入學趨勢」等其他值得注意的課程？

Yes, Arren, it's Jon. Let me take that. We build up our projections bottom-up and top-down. So we do a bottom-up analysis where we're absolutely looking at sort of enrollment trends and the like, and we do sort of a top-down analysis, which is more of a share-based approach. And we triangulate those 2 things together. And this year, those numbers were pretty close.

是的，阿倫，我是喬恩。讓我來吧。我們自下而上和自上而下地建立我們的預測。因此，我們進行自下而上的分析，我們絕對關注某種入學趨勢等，並且我們進行自上而下的分析，這更像是一種基於份額的方法。我們將這兩件事放在一起進行三角測量。今年，這些數字非常接近。

So yes, we do have views around enrollment increases. Yes, we do have views around the effectiveness of our various marketing programs, which we feel have been getting more effective each year over the last several years, given both organic investments and the acquisitions we've done. And yes, we have assumptions in there around the potential for a competitor to be exiting the space.

所以，是的，我們確實對增加入學人數有看法。是的，我們確實對各種行銷計劃的有效性有自己的看法，考慮到我們進行的有機投資和收購，我們認為過去幾年這些計劃每年都變得更加有效。是的，我們有關於競爭對手退出該領域的可能性的假設。

I do think the thing that's important, and I'll just say it proactively, any exit will likely impact the fall, peak season, more than it will impact the spring and so you may remember from my comments, we believe any market share gains driven by that will likely be spread over 2 years, not entirely resident just within 2024.

我確實認為重要的是，我只是主動地說，任何退出都可能對秋季、旺季產生影響，而不是對春季的影響，所以你可能還記得我的評論，我們相信任何市場份額都會增加受此推動，可能會持續兩年，而不是在2024 年內完全駐留。

Yes, that makes sense. And then second question on the gain on sale. It looked like the 4Q is a bit lower than normal or what it has been recently. Was that because it was struck during the third quarter when rates were high? And I believe you said that you expect that to improve in the first quarter sale, the $2 billion?

是的，這是有道理的。然後是關於銷售收益的第二個問題。看起來第四季比正常或最近的情況要低一些。是因為它是在第三季利率高的時候發生的嗎？我相信您說過您預計第一季的銷售額將提高 20 億美元？

Yes. Arren, this is Pete. That's right. The timing of when that deal was struck, that was sort of at peak rates. And we've seen obviously improvement in rate -- in the rate environment as we moved into the year. And so again, as we said in the prepared remarks, it's largely in line with what our expectations for this year were.

是的。阿倫，這是皮特。這是正確的。該交易達成的時間點，當時正值高峰期。隨著進入這一年，我們已經看到利率環境明顯改善。因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，這在很大程度上符合我們今年的預期。

Our next question comes from the line of Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Moshe Orenbuch 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

Maybe, Jon, if you could talk a little bit about how you think about the capital deployment, the $650 million is a nice large number. And given the fact that you've already agreed to the first loan sale of the year, can you talk about the pace of that capital deployment over the next 12 or 24 months?

喬恩，如果您能談談您對資本部署的看法，也許 6.5 億美元是一個不錯的數字。鑑於您已經同意今年的第一筆貸款銷售，您能否談談未來 12 或 24 個月的資本部署步伐？

Yes. Moshe, happy to and Pete, jump in if you want to add anything to that. I think if you look back historically, really, given the low rate environment, our philosophy has been one of deploying capital very, very quickly because of the potential impact that, that has on NIM. While we do not divulge specific plans or timing around capital deployment, I think you should assume that higher rates give us a bit more flexibility to be thoughtful, strategic and a bit more opportunistic about how we deploy that capital. And so I think you should expect -- and I think we said this in our comments that we will take a more programmatic approach. We'll obviously look to be opportunistic at times where we think market conditions are favorable for buybacks. But I think we also want to make sure that we are being sort of consistent in our approach or reasonably consistent in our approach across that time period.

是的。摩西很樂意和皮特，如果你想補充什麼，請加入。我認為，如果你回顧歷史，實際上，考慮到低利率環境，我們的理念一直是非常非常快速地部署資本，因為這對 NIM 有潛在影響。雖然我們沒有透露有關資本部署的具體計劃或時間安排，但我認為您應該假設較高的利率使我們能夠更加靈活地考慮如何部署資本，更具戰略性，並且更加機會主義。因此，我認為您應該期待 - 我認為我們在評論中說過，我們將採取更程序化的方法。當我們認為市場條件有利於回購時，我們顯然會尋求機會主義。但我認為我們也想確保我們的方法在整個時期內保持一致或相當一致。

Great. And maybe just as a follow-up, I mean, one of the things that we talked about a little around the time of your call last month was kind of the dynamic elements of your plan. Can you talk a little bit about how you would think about if the market share gains and origination gains later in the year were better than you had -- than you kind of included in your forecast? I mean how do you think about what you kind of do with that difference? Is it something that you're more likely to increase the amount of loans sold or increase the amount staying on the balance sheet? Can you talk about just your thought process?

偉大的。我的意思是，也許作為後續行動，我們在上個月您打電話時討論的一件事是您計劃中的動態元素。您能否談談如果今年稍後的市場份額增長和原創增長比您預期的要好，您會如何看待？我的意思是，您如何看待如何利用這種差異？您更有可能增加出售的貸款金額還是增加留在資產負債表上的金額？能簡單談談您的思考過程嗎？

Yes, I'm happy to. I think if you go back to our investment thesis, Moshe, number one on that is strong and predictable balance sheet growth. And I think in my comments, we talked about likely balance sheet growth this year in the 2% to 3% range. I think you should assume that, that is going to be sort of the primary determinant of how many -- how much loans that we sell versus how much we keep on the balance sheet, sort of plus or minus. And obviously, if we end up in a place where market conditions are extremely favorable to loan sales, we might sort of push that a little bit to the lower end. If we found a place where market conditions weren't as favorable, maybe we push it a little bit to the upper end.

是的，我很高興。我認為，如果你回到我們的投資論點，Moshe，第一點就是強勁且可預測的資產負債表成長。我認為在我的評論中，我們討論了今年資產負債表可能成長 2% 至 3% 的情況。我認為你應該假設，這將是我們出售多少貸款與我們在資產負債表上保留多少貸款的主要決定因素，或多或少。顯然，如果我們最終處於市場條件對貸款銷售極其有利的地方，我們可能會將其推至較低水平。如果我們發現市場條件不太有利的地方，也許我們會將其推至高端。

But I think our goal, very much, as we discussed in the investor forum is to have really measured predictable balance sheet growth, couple that with really strong operating leverage to be sure that we're driving quite attractive EPS growth but also returning during that time, significant capital to shareholders. So I think that's how we think about it. It is, again, I think, really based on predictable balance sheet growth as we say in the investment thesis.

但我認為，正如我們在投資者論壇中討論的那樣，我們的目標是真正衡量可預測的資產負債表成長，再加上強大的營運槓桿，以確保我們推動相當有吸引力的每股盈餘成長，同時在此期間實現回報時間，為股東帶來大量資本。所以我認為這就是我們的想法。我認為，正如我們在投資論文中所說，它實際上是基於可預測的資產負債表成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Terry Ma with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自馬特里與巴克萊銀行的對話。

Can you maybe just comment on the credit outlook for this year? It seems like the high end of the range implies not much improvement compared to 2023. So maybe just talk about what gets us or gets you to the high end versus the low end? And then longer term, how should we think about the time frame for getting back within your target underwriting levels?

您能否簡單評論一下今年的信用前景？與 2023 年相比，該範圍的高端似乎意味著沒有太大改進。所以也許只是談談是什麼讓我們或讓您達到高端而不是低端？然後從長遠來看，我們應該如何考慮回到目標承保水準的時間範圍？

Yes, happy to. I think we've tried to give a range, obviously, recognizing it's sort of early in the year and we continue to be, I think, in a little bit of a volatile sort of economic environment. And I think, of course, we want to be sensitive to that. What we have effectively done in building up that forecast is a pretty deep look at sort of the programs, the new programs we've developed, the use of those programs, the uptake of those programs, sort of the effectiveness we've seen, recognizing some of those are in early days.

是的，很高興。我認為我們已經試圖給出一個範圍，顯然，我們認識到現在還為時過早，而且我認為我們仍然處於有點不穩定的經濟環境中。我認為，當然，我們希望對此保持敏感。我們在建立預測方面所做的有效工作是對各種計劃、我們開發的新計劃、這些計劃的使用、這些計劃的採用以及我們所看到的有效性進行了相當深入的研究，認識到其中一些還處於早期階段。

We have looked at the credit and underwriting changes that we've made and sort of the differential performance between loans that we continue to underwrite versus those we don't. We've looked at things like the standard aging and vintaging of our portfolio, understanding that different loans behave differently over time. And we've looked down into the details of those portfolios at things like balances and fixed rate versus variable rate, again, knowing that the performance of some of those things is a little bit different.

我們研究了我們所做的信貸和承保方面的變化，以及我們繼續承保的貸款與不承保的貸款之間的績效差異。我們研究了投資組合的標準老化和陳舊等問題，了解不同的貸款隨著時間的推移會有不同的表現。我們再次研究了這些投資組合的細節，例如餘額、固定利率與浮動利率等，知道其中一些東西的表現有點不同。

And I think at the end of the day, that's sort of how we arose, kind of came to the view. I think the thing that would take us to the lower end is if we felt like the programs that we had put in place were slightly sort of better and more effective than we've seen in the early days. And I think the things that would take us to the upper end would be sort of the opposite of that.

我認為歸根結底，這就是我們產生的方式，也是我們得出這樣的觀點的原因。我認為，如果我們覺得我們實施的計劃比我們早期看到的更好、更有效，那麼我們就會陷入低谷。我認為那些將我們帶到高端的事情與此相反。

But I think what you ought to take away is we are and continue to be very confident in sort of year-over-year improvement in credit. I think that detailed analysis I described makes us more comfortable, as I said in my talking points at the high 1s to low 2s is really the right place for us to be. And I think you should expect and we believe that we'll see continued performance improvement in '25, of course, assuming no broader macroeconomic changes, I have to say that.

但我認為你應該明白的是，我們對信貸的逐年改善充滿信心，並將繼續充滿信心。我認為我所描述的詳細分析讓我們更舒服，正如我在高 1 到低 2 的談話要點中所說的那樣，這確實是我們所處的正確位置。我認為你應該期待並且我們相信我們將在 25 年看到持續的業績改善，當然，假設沒有更廣泛的宏觀經濟變化，我不得不這麼說。

Whether we get all the way back to a normalized level of '25 or just close, I think it's a little bit too far out to make that call. But I think we are confident in continued and meaningful improvement.

無論我們是完全回到 25 的正常水平還是只是接近，我認為做出這樣的決定有點太遙遠了。但我認為我們對持續且有意義的改進充滿信心。

Got it. And then longer term for your market share, how should we think about how that evolves over the next few years as the competitor fully exits?

知道了。然後，從長遠來看，當競爭對手完全退出時，我們應該如何考慮未來幾年您的市場份額將如何演變？

Yes. I think we would. Assuming all of those plans that move forward as the media has suggested. I think we would expect that there will be jump ball market share for us to compete for much like there was when Wells made the decision to leave the marketplace several years ago.

是的。我想我們會的。假設所有這些計劃都按照媒體的建議進行。我認為我們期望我們能夠爭奪跳球市場份額，就像威爾斯幾年前決定離開市場一樣。

We will compete for that in exactly the same way that we compete for any other business. We'll decide which of that business we like versus not based on credit characteristics, pricing characteristics, all sort of resulting in the expected ROE of those loans. My guess is we will end up competing for and trying to compete for a good piece of it. But I don't know that we'll necessarily compete for all of it. It's just too early to sort of tell.

我們將以與競爭任何其他業務完全相同的方式來競爭這一點。我們將根據信貸特徵、定價特徵以及所有導致這些貸款的預期淨資產收益率的因素來決定我們喜歡哪項業務，而不是不喜歡哪項業務。我的猜測是，我們最終將爭奪並試圖爭奪其中的一塊好部分。但我不知道我們是否一定會爭奪這一切。現在下結論還為時過早。

But I think our hope is that this does represent a near-term sort of multiyear but onetime opportunity to increase share. And we're excited to compete for that and what is and I think continues to be a nicely competitive marketplace where we expect other competitors to show up and very much compete with equal zeal as we're competing.

但我認為我們的希望是，這確實代表了一種近期的、多年但一次性的增加份額的機會。我們很高興能夠為此競爭，而且我認為現在和將來仍然是一個競爭激烈的市場，我們希望其他競爭對手能夠出現，並以與我們競爭同樣的熱情進行競爭。

Our next question comes from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

I guess a question for Pete. Could you just talk about the 2024 assumptions on level of loan sales, like the gain on sale margins and maybe what you're assuming in terms of share repurchases in the guidance?

我想問皮特一個問題。您能否談談 2024 年貸款銷售水準的假設，例如銷售利潤的收益，以及您在指南中對股票回購的假設？

Yes, we kind of laid that out at the Investor Forum, in large part, our guidance is pretty similar to that. And in terms of sizing of the overall program this year, again, we're targeting that sort of 2% to 3% balance sheet growth, and that will determine the ultimate sort of overall level. The $2 billion that we've agreed indicative terms on is a good start to that program for the year, and we'll begin to utilize the capital generated by that for -- as Jon said, a programmatic approach to share repurchase. And then when we do a second installment of loan sales at some point later in the year, we'll build on that as we go.

是的，我們在投資者論壇上對此進行了闡述，在很大程度上，我們的指導與此非常相似。就今年整體計畫的規模而言，我們的目標是資產負債表成長 2% 至 3%，這將決定最終的整體水準。我們商定的 20 億美元指示性條款是今年該計劃的良好開端，我們將開始利用由此產生的資本——正如喬恩所說，以計劃性方式進行股票回購。然後，當我們在今年稍後的某個時候進行第二期貸款銷售時，我們將在此基礎上繼續進行。

And then like that $2 billion that's been sold already, that's consistent in the range that you guys articulated at the Investor Forum, so like mid-singles, a little bit higher than that?

然後就像已經售出的 20 億美元一樣，這與你們在投資者論壇上闡述的範圍一致，所以就像中單打一樣，比這個高一點點？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And maybe just on rates, interest rates. Could you just remind us sort of how as rates come down, that affects the P&L and sort of what's been done around rates and what you've assumed in the guidance?

好的。也許只是關於利率、利率。您能否提醒我們，隨著利率下降，這將如何影響損益表，以及圍繞利率採取的措施以及您在指南中的假設？

Yes, sure. So over the course of the last couple of years, we've had a little bit of a tailwind on our NIM because in the rising rate environment, our loans tend to reprice faster than our liabilities reprice. And that's why we kind of peaked at where we did in '23. Our expectation is that, that will start to moderate, which is why our guidance for this year around NIM is lower than where we were last year. And we're not necessarily taking a position on rates. We're just acknowledging that we do have some timing disconnects in terms of pricing and a bias over the course of this year for incrementally lower cost of funding as our liabilities reprice.

是的，當然。因此，在過去幾年中，我們的淨利差（NIM）受到了一些推動，因為在利率上升的環境下，我們的貸款重新定價往往快於負債重新定價。這就是為什麼我們在 23 年達到了頂峰。我們的預期是，這種情況將開始放緩，這就是為什麼我們今年關於淨利差的指引低於去年。我們不一定對利率採取立場。我們只是承認，我們在定價方面確實存在一些時間脫節，並且隨著我們的負債重新定價，今年的融資成本會逐漸降低。

How many rate cuts have you factored in here?

您在這裡考慮了多少次降息？

We base our assumptions on kind of forward curves. So I think the market assumption there is probably 5 rate cuts.

我們的假設是基於某種遠期曲線。所以我認為市場假設可能有5次降息。

Okay. So there's a punitive impact of 5 rate cuts in the NIM right now. To the extent that doesn't happen, that should help all else equal.

好的。因此，目前淨利差 5 次降息具有懲罰性影響。如果這種情況沒有發生，那應該對其他情況都有幫助。

Yes, perhaps. I mean, again, it's -- anytime you're forecasting future interest rates, there's always going to be some level of variability that's unknowable until it actually happens. We tend to run a fairly balanced book. So any moves should be kind of gradual and likely within the guidance range that we've articulated.

是的，也許吧。我的意思是，無論何時，當你預測未來利率時，總是會出現某種程度的變化，在實際發生之前，這種變化是不可知的。我們傾向於出版一本相當平衡的書。因此，任何舉措都應該是漸進的，並且可能在我們闡明的指導範圍內。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kaye with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·凱與富國銀行的對話。

I was hoping you could dig a little bit more into those new borrower assistance programs that you rolled out and you alluded to. I know it's early days, but could you just give us some of the early signs of how that's performing. And secondly, could you talk about how that enhanced recovery strategy, which you recently implemented? How is that going? Is it going according to plan?

我希望您能進一步深入了解您推出並提及的那些新的借款人援助計劃。我知道現在還為時過早，但您能否給我們一些有關其表現的早期跡象。其次，您能談談您最近實施的增強復甦策略是如何實施的嗎？進展如何？事情照計劃進行嗎？

Yes, Michael, it's Jon, happy to. In terms of the specifics, there's a few different flavors of programs we've developed. And as quick context, you will remember with the credit administration changes we made several years ago, we moved from having a very effective sort of very general forbearance program to a strategy where we had more programs, but much more tailored, much more focused on specific customer needs. That has the advantage of being aligned and we've, I think, since at the time with OCC guidance. It also allows us, again, to be really efficient and effective in the design of those programs and really test for their effectiveness over time, recognizing that they're all still pretty new.

是的，邁克爾，是喬恩，很高興。就具體情況而言，我們開發了幾種不同風格的程式。作為快速背景，您會記得我們幾年前進行的信貸管理改革，我們從一種非常有效的非常普遍的寬容計劃轉變為一種策略，我們有更多的計劃，但更加量身定制，更加專注於特定客戶需求。這樣做的好處是能夠保持一致，我認為，從那時起我們就已經在 OCC 的指導下進行了調整。它還使我們能夠真正有效地設計這些程序，並隨著時間的推移真正測試它們的有效性，並認識到它們仍然很新。

So to give you a sense of that, we've developed a newer -- early to repayment assistance program. This is specifically designed to help folks who are literally just coming out of school and starting to take on their financial obligations. We've developed a term extension and loan modification program that allows us to tailor and offer slightly more combinations of rate and tenure modification, again, really to the idea of sort of specifically tailoring the sort of mod to the unique needs or circumstances of that borrower. And we haven't done it yet, but we are looking at establishing a more permanent loan modification program for borrowers who were really experiencing longer-term hardship and/or sort of a permanent reduction in their income.

因此，為了讓您了解這一點，我們制定了一項更新的提前還款援助計劃。這是專門為幫助那些剛走出學校並開始承擔財務義務的人而設計的。我們開發了一項期限延期和貸款修改計劃，使我們能夠定制並提供更多的利率和期限修改組合，再次，真正實現了根據特定需求或情況專門定制某種模式的想法借款人。我們還沒有這樣做，但我們正在考慮為確實經歷長期困難和/或收入永久性減少的借款人建立更永久性的貸款修改計劃。

And so hopefully, that gives you a little bit of a sense of the kinds of programs. But again, I would put it in the context of very tailored and specific and focused programs as a replacement or a substitute for the more general and flexible program that we had before.

希望這能讓您對程式的類型有一點了解。但我再次強調，我會將其置於非常量身定制、具體且重點突出的計劃的背景下，作為我們之前更普遍、更靈活的計劃的替代品或替代品。

I think we like the results we're seeing so far, Michael, to answer that part of the question. I think we are seeing, first and foremost, our agents being able to communicate the benefit of these programs to our customers. I think the programs that we've developed are largely matching what customers need. We see that because we can see sort of the improved uptake of those programs when we offer it. And we can literally go back and listen to those calls and monitor all of that very, very closely.

邁克爾，我想我們喜歡目前看到的結果來回答這部分問題。我認為，首先也是最重要的是，我們的代理商能夠向我們的客戶傳達這些計劃的好處。我認為我們開發的程式很大程度上符合客戶的需求。我們看到這一點是因為當我們提供這些計劃時，我們可以看到這些計劃的使用率有所提高。我們實際上可以回去監聽這些電話並非常非常密切地監控所有這些。

It is too early to be able to start to do what we will eventually do, which is the sort of longer-term loss curves of those programs and whether or not they are generating meaningfully better outcomes or not. That will certainly be a part of the fine-tuning that we will do over the quarters ahead. But obviously, the programs have to run their term and then we have to observe behavior and success of customers going forward.

現在開始做我們最終要做的事情還為時過早，這就是這些計劃的長期損失曲線，以及它們是否產生了有意義的更好結果。這肯定是我們在未來幾季進行的微調的一部分。但顯然，這些計劃必須運行其期限，然後我們必須觀察客戶未來的行為和成功。

I think it is really important to note, our goal here is to work as productively as we can with all of our borrowers who have fallen on hard times. We recognize that there is a human behind every one of the customers who are struggling with their loans. And we want to be as helpful as we can. And we think that this targeted approach is really a great step in that direction.

我認為值得注意的是，我們的目標是盡可能有效率地與所有陷入困境的借款人合作。我們體認到，每一位陷入貸款困境的客戶背後都有一個人。我們希望盡我們所能提供協助。我們認為這種有針對性的方法確實是朝著這個方向邁出的一大步。

And at the part about that enhanced recovery strategy, I know you've made some changes. How is that going on?

在關於增強恢復策略的部分，我知道您已經做出了一些改變。這是怎麼回事？

It has continued to perform along our expectations. There's no update there, and we continue to believe that, that is the right program and have confidence in that decision.

它的表現持續符合我們的預期。目前沒有任何更新，我們仍然相信，這是正確的計劃，並對這一決定充滿信心。

Great. And my second follow-up question is, is there any early signs of increased competition from new and existing players with one of your competitors looking to exit. For example, I saw a word that the Carlyle Group purchased $415 million of private student loans and made a strategic investment in a company called Monogram.

偉大的。我的第二個後續問題是，是否有任何早期跡象表明新玩家和現有玩家的競爭加劇，而您的競爭對手之一正在尋求退出。例如我看到一個詞，凱雷集團買了4.15億美元的私人學生貸款，並對一家叫Monogram的公司進行了策略性投資。

Yes, Michael, I think it's sort of too early and not the season to really see the change in competitive intensity. You have to remember, number one, lots of the spring disbursements happen in the very end of '23 or the beginning of '24, but they were really set up by the great work that we and our competitors do during the fall peak season.

是的，邁克爾，我認為現在還為時過早，而且現在還不是真正看到競爭強度變化的季節。你必須記住，第一，許多春季支出發生在 23 年底或 24 年初，但它們實際上是由我們和我們的競爭對手在秋季旺季所做的出色工作建立的。

By the way, if you look at the announcement of the competitor in question, they were very clear to articulate that they were going to stop originations on February 1, which we imagine is a nod to that dynamic. They obviously want to see the business that they've already committed through to a natural conclusion. I think we'll really start to sort of understand the change in competitive dynamics as we move into peak season this summer.

順便說一句，如果你看相關競爭對手的公告，你會發現他們非常明確地表示他們將在 2 月 1 日停止原創，我們認為這是對這一動態的認可。他們顯然希望看到他們已經承諾的業務有一個自然的結果。我認為，隨著今年夏天進入旺季，我們將真正開始了解競爭動態的變化。

As it relates to the Monogram investment by Carlyle, I'm not sure I read a lot into that. I think there's been certainly interest by private equity players in all manner of asset generators for a while now. That's a very clear part of their strategy. What I take away from it is, it is a sign that another really smart and savvy investor, Carlyle sees the incredible value in this asset class. And I think we view that as net-net of positive.

由於它與凱雷 (Carlyle) 的 Monogram 投資有關，我不確定我對此了解了很多。我認為私募股權投資者對各種資產產生器的興趣肯定已經有一段時間了。這是他們策略中非常明確的部分。我從中得出的結論是，這表明另一位非常聰明和精明的投資者凱雷看到了這個資產類別的難以置信的價值。我認為我們認為這是積極的。

Our next question comes from the line of John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·赫克特和傑弗里斯的對話。

I guess going back to Sanjay's inquiry about NIM. Maybe just talking about the asset side. I mean you do have a mix of some adjustable rate mortgages -- or excuse me, student loans. Can you tell us kind of the cadence of how the assets move specifically with interest rates?

我想回到 Sanjay 關於 NIM 的詢問。也許只是談論資產方面。我的意思是，你確實有一些可調整利率抵押貸款的組合——或者對不起，學生貸款。您能告訴我們資產如何隨利率變化的具體節奏嗎？

Yes. I would say, in large part, they're SOFR-based and the price -- repricing on a monthly cadence, whereas the -- as I said earlier, on the funding side, tends to be more quarterly resets.

是的。我想說，在很大程度上，它們是基於 SOFR 的，而且價格——按月頻率重新定價，而——正如我之前所說，在資金方面，往往每季重新定價一次。

And how much of the assets reprice monthly against SOFR?

有多少資產每月根據 SOFR 重新定價？

The bulk of our floating rate or variable loans would be SOFR-based.

我們的大部分浮動利率或可變貸款將基於 SOFR。

Okay. And then maybe -- the second question I have is the provision against unfunded commitments. I think we're familiar with CECL and how you would provision against the new loan, but maybe can you refresh us about how you provision against unfunded commitments because I think the ratio fluctuated this year versus last year in the same period.

好的。然後也許──我的第二個問題是針對無資金承諾的規定。我認為我們熟悉 CECL 以及如何為新貸款準備金，但也許您可以向我們介紹如何為無資金承諾準備金，因為我認為今年同期的比率與去年相比有所波動。

Yes. I think in general terms, we're taking a reserve rate, and we're applying it to that commitment. And so we've, again, under CECL, we've got to fully provision for our life of loan expectation for loss and we do that in a programmatic manner for the new commitments. And then as those fund, we transfer balances out and into the overall provision. But when we give statistics around our overall rates, we're combining those together. So the rates I was quoting in my prepared remarks is including kind of a combined view of provision on the loans on balance sheet as well as the piece related to the unfunded commitments.

是的。我認為總的來說，我們正在採取準備金率，並將其應用於這項承諾。因此，我們再次根據 CECL，必須為我們的貸款預期損失做好充分準備，並且我們以有計劃的方式為新的承諾做到這一點。然後，作為這些基金，我們將餘額轉出並轉入整體準備金。但是，當我們提供總體費率的統計數據時，我們會將這些數據合併在一起。因此，我在準備好的發言中引用的利率包括資產負債表上貸款準備金以及與無資金承諾相關的部分的綜合觀點。

And do unfunded commitments kind of as a percentage of CECL originations, are they fairly typical or consistent? Or is there some fluctuations in that part of the equation?

無資金承諾是否佔 CECL 發起的百分比，它們是否相當典型或一致？或是方程式的那部分有些波動嗎？

Again, it's going to be largely dependent on kind of the serialization. And so we make those commitments largely in the peak season. We'll fund the first tranche of that as the students are entering the fall semester and then the other piece will remain as an unfunded commitment until the spring disbursements. Again, that's -- again, a generalization based on -- assume 2 semesters and most university experiences. We have other programs for different types of schools that fund slightly differently than that.

同樣，這將在很大程度上取決於序列化的類型。因此，我們主要在旺季做出這些承諾。當學生進入秋季學期時，我們將資助其中的第一部分，然後另一部分將繼續作為無資助的承諾，直到春季付款。同樣，這也是基於假設 2 個學期和大多數大學經驗的概括。我們為不同類型的學校提供其他計劃，其資助略有不同。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark DeVries with Deutsche Bank. No response, I'll go to the next participant. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Adelson with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯。沒有回應，我會去找下一位參與者。我們的下一個問題來自傑夫阿德爾森與摩根士丹利的對話。

So just to circle back on this exit from one of your large competitors, understood the potential benefits here to originations. But just also wanted to understand any of the other potential benefits that could flow through here. Are you contemplating any sort of benefit to your credit as a result of that? Or could that be upside? And as we think about the loan sale of that portfolio, is there anything to be thinking about in terms of demand or supply of loan sales in the market impacting your loan sales going forward?

因此，回顧一下您的大型競爭對手之一的退出，並了解這裡對起源的潛在好處。但我也想了解這裡可能帶來的任何其他潛在好處。您是否正在考慮因此對您的信用產生任何好處？或者這可能有好處嗎？當我們考慮該投資組合的貸款銷售時，市場上貸款銷售的需求或供應是否有什麼因素會影響您未來的貸款銷售？

Yes, Jeff, we have thought through it. And obviously, we have general industry knowledge and hypotheses about the nature of different competitors and where they sort of favor or disfavor within their buybacks and underwriting grades. And I think we can make some educated guesses on that. But at the end of the day, we don't have the level of insight that I think would allow us to make perfect assessments around sort of the impact that, that would have on our credit.

是的，傑夫，我們已經考慮過了。顯然，我們對不同競爭對手的性質以及他們在回購和承銷等級方面偏好或不偏好的方面有一般的行業知識和假設。我認為我們可以對此做出一些有根據的猜測。但歸根結底，我們沒有足夠的洞察力，我認為這將使我們能夠對這對我們的信用產生的影響做出完美的評估。

I think the general comment I would make is I think we will continue to stay very true to our credit discipline. We will continue to stay very true to our ROE sort of framework around how we think about the profitability of a loan. But I think it will sort of take a little bit of time to see how that plays through directly which is why I think we've given a range around our origination guidance for the year because it could obviously turn out in slightly more favorable ways or slightly less favorable ways. But I think all of the outcomes are still favorable ones. Remind me the second part of your question, Jeff?

我認為我要發表的總體評論是，我們將繼續恪守我們的信用紀律。我們將繼續忠於我們如何看待貸款獲利能力的淨資產收益率框架。但我認為需要一點時間來看看它是如何直接發揮作用的，這就是為什麼我認為我們已經圍繞今年的起源指導給出了一個範圍，因為它顯然可能會以稍微更有利的方式出現，或者稍微不太有利的方式。但我認為所有的結果仍然是有利的。提醒我你問題的第二部分，傑夫？

Yes. Just as we think about your loan sales with another $10 billion of sales coming into the market, just any sort of impact to be thinking about there, considerations.

是的。正如我們考慮您的貸款銷售以及另外 100 億美元的銷售進入市場一樣，需要考慮任何類型的影響、考慮因素。

Yes. Look, the demand for various asset classes, including our asset class is pretty deep. And our discussions with various parties in the market, we don't feel like that's going to impact demand for our loans or for that matter, for asset-backed funding in general as we move into this year.

是的。看，對各種資產類別，包括我們的資產類別的需求是相當深的。透過與市場各方的討論，我們認為這不會影響我們的貸款需求，也不會影響今年的資產支持融資需求。

Yes. In fact, Jeff, I would add. I think anecdotally, we heard when the last major competitor left the space, that it actually may have been a net positive for demand for loans because it was a large transaction. It encourages lots of people to get smart on the space. It encourages lots of people to allocate resources to the space. And obviously, there can only be 1 winner of that.

是的。事實上，傑夫，我想補充一下。我認為，有趣的是，當最後一個主要競爭對手離開該領域時，我們聽說這實際上可能會對貸款需求產生淨正面影響，因為這是一筆大型交易。它鼓勵很多人在這個領域變得聰明。它鼓勵很多人將資源分配給這個空間。顯然，其中只能有一名獲勝者。

So I think we view it as at worst a neutral, probably a slight positive. But again, we feel like the market for the asset class is deep. We feel like it's matured significantly over the last half decade, and we think there will be lots of positives that come from this.

因此，我認為我們最多將其視為中性，甚至可能略有積極。但我們再次認為該資產類別的市場很深。我們覺得它在過去五年裡已經顯著成熟，我們認為這將會帶來很多正面的一面。

Okay. Great. And just on the $650 million repurchase authorization, I know you talked about doing half this year, half next year. Does that also contemplate the plan you laid out at the investor forum and kind of the base case for loan sales or is that more of a conservative outlook on your part? Because it does look like half and half? Is it a little bit below what you did this past year?

好的。偉大的。就6.5億美元的回購授權而言，我知道你談到今年做一半，明年做一半。這是否也考慮了您在投資者論壇上製定的計劃以及貸款銷售的基本情況，或者您的觀點更加保守？因為它看起來確實像一半一半？是不是比去年的表現低了一點？

Yes. I mean it's roughly in line. We didn't say exactly half, we said approximately half. And as I said in my remarks, on a prior question, the pace and amount of that will be governed by the loan sales that we do this year. We're off to a good start with the $2 billion that will close this quarter. And the timing and amounts will be dictated by when we do additional loan sales through the year.

是的。我的意思是，大致上是一致的。我們沒有說確切的一半，我們說的是大約一半。正如我在演講中所說，關於先前的問題，其速度和金額將取決於我們今年的貸款銷售。我們有了一個良好的開端，本季將完成 20 億美元的投資。時間和金額將取決於我們全年進行額外貸款銷售的時間。

Okay. And just one last one for me. On federal loan, student loan payments. Anything you can update us on what you're seeing from your borrowers that are making those payments? I think there are still some puts and takes to come here with the new -- the full benefit of the new income-driven plan kicking in, in July, but then you have this on-ramp expiring later in the year. Just maybe give us a quick update on what you're seeing, what you're expecting there.

好的。對我來說只是最後一件。關於聯邦貸款、學生貸款付款。您可以向我們介紹一下您從正在付款的借款人那裡看到的最新情況嗎？我認為仍然有一些看跌期權會隨著新的——新的收入驅動計劃的全部好處在七月開始生效，但隨後這個入口將在今年晚些時候到期。請向我們快速介紹一下您所看到的情況和您所期待的情況。

Yes, Jeff, happy to. We track as best we can, sort of the performance of our customers who have federal student loans and those who don't. We don't know as perfectly who has enrolled in which income-driven repayment program or sort of other programs. But we have a pretty good sense of it.

是的，傑夫，很高興。我們盡最大努力追蹤擁有聯邦學生貸款和沒有聯邦學生貸款的客戶的表現。我們並不完全知道誰參加了哪種收入驅動的還款計劃或其他計劃。但我們對此有很好的認識。

As of the last month, I saw data for, which was pretty recently, we have not yet seen any material divergence in performance between those with or without federal loans. And so we continue to watch it closely. We recognize that the on-ramp is a powerful tool for customers. We understand that the income-driven repayment plans are a powerful tool for federal customers. But as of yet, we've not seen anything that would strike us as a material divergence.

截至上個月，我看到的數據是最近的，我們還沒有看到有或沒有聯邦貸款的人之間的表現有任何重大差異。因此我們將繼續密切關注。我們認識到入口匝道對客戶來說是一個強大的工具。我們知道，以收入為導向的還款計畫對於聯邦客戶來說是一個強大的工具。但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何讓我們印象深刻的實質分歧。

Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自文森特凱恩蒂克和史蒂芬斯的對話。

First one, wanted to get your industry thoughts on the student loan refinancing market on the expectation of 5 rate cuts, what that would do? And then for Sallie Mae specifically, how you're thinking about maybe any consolidation pressure or your thoughts on the balance sheet growth?

第一個，想了解您的產業對5次降息預期下的學生貸款再融資市場的看法，這會帶來什麼影響？然後，具體來說，對於薩莉·梅（Sallie Mae），您如何考慮合併壓力或您對資產負債表成長的看法？

Yes, I'll take first crack, and Jon, you can add on if I miss any of the high points. Obviously, the consolidation market is really a rate-driven exercise. And so as rates are going down, we do expect a return in some respect of consolidation players. But I think the wildcard in it for us is what impact the new programs in the federal space have on sort of deterring folks from consolidating their loans because generally, that's going to be a big factor in terms of whether someone wants to give up the potential benefits that they might be able to get in the federal programs in order to get an overall lower rate. So it's something we've got our eye on. And certainly, we have expectations and our outlook for what consolidations be and that's considered within our guidance. But yes, I think that's one that's going to have to play out a little bit.

是的，我會先攻克，喬恩，如果我錯過了任何精彩點，你可以補充。顯然，整合市場實際上是一個利率驅動的活動。因此，隨著利率下降，我們確實預期整合參與者會在某些方面有所回報。但我認為對我們來說，其中的通配符是聯邦領域的新計劃對阻止人們合併貸款產生的影響，因為一般來說，這將是某人是否願意放棄潛力的一個重要因素他們可能能夠從聯邦計劃中獲得福利，以獲得總體較低的利率。所以這是我們關注的事情。當然，我們對整合有期望和展望，這也在我們的指導範圍內考慮。但是，是的，我認為這必須發揮一點作用。

Yes. And Vincent, I think the only thing that I would add and let me preface this the way I always do when I get questions on consolidation. This is obviously not our core business. I'm sure there's people out there who have deeper insight into sort of the economics of the refi game than we do. But I think if you look at even the sort of rate cuts that are being assumed, that doesn't take us anywhere back to the kind of [uber] low rate environment that I think we've been living in for the last 20 years.

是的。文森特，我想我唯一要補充的是，讓我以我在收到有關合併的問題時一貫的方式做序言。這顯然不是我們的核心業務。我確信有人比我們對改裝遊戲的經濟學有更深入的了解。但我認為，如果你看看假設的降息類型，你會發現，這並不會讓我們回到過去 20 年來我們一直生活在的那種[超級]低利率環境。 。

And you asked me for my opinion, I will give you my opinion. I don't think we're going to see that kind of uber low rate environment ever again. And so I think you have to realize there's an awful lot of recent college grads and there's an awful lot of, quite frankly, even current college seniors, juniors and sophomores, who made loans under a much lower interest rate environment than what we've seen over the course of the last 18 months.

你問我的意見，我就給你我的意見。我認為我們不會再看到那種超低利率的環境。所以我認為你必須意識到有很多剛畢業的大學畢業生，坦白說，甚至有很多現在的大學四年級、大三和大二學生，他們在比我們低得多的利率環境下發放貸款。過去18 個月內所見。

So I think when you think about the sort of refi economics, I think you have to look at it through the lens of when did different borrowers make loans, what is the prevailing interest rate when they made those loans? And what are the rate today? We have done and will continue to do manners of those analyses. I agree with what Pete said. There will be some time in the future where consolidations come back and are larger than they are today. But I think we saw a golden age of loan consolidations given the super low rate environment. I think we'll all have to see if we ever see that kind of golden age again.

因此，我認為，當您考慮再融資經濟學時，我認為您必須從不同借款人何時發放貸款的角度來看待它，他們發放這些貸款時的現行利率是多少？今天的匯率是多少？我們已經並將繼續進行這些分析。我同意皮特所說的。未來某個時候，整合將會捲土重來，而且規模會比現在更大。但我認為，鑑於超低利率環境，我們看到了貸款整合的黃金時代。我想我們都必須看看是否能再次看到那種黃金時代。

Okay. That's helpful. And second question, just on the forbearance programs and actually how we should think about the numbers. So I guess as these modification programs roll out, should we be expecting that I guess the forbearance number will stay -- will increase from this level? And I'm just wondering how that plays out because usually, if we see forbearance, we might be concerned, but if it's from these new programs that are driving some more success, I just want to anticipate that in advance.

好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，關於寬容計畫以及我們實際上應該如何看待這些數字。因此，我想隨著這些修改計劃的推出，我們是否應該期望寬容數字將保持不變——將從這個水平增加？我只是想知道結果如何，因為通常情況下，如果我們看到寬容，我們可能會感到擔憂，但如果這些新計劃正在推動更多成功，我只是想提前預測這一點。

Yes, Vincent, it's a wonderful simple answer -- our question deserving a simple answer. I'm going to make it slightly more complicated. The answer is for most customers using what we call hardship forbearance today, which is still allowable under sort of OCC guidance and our program is absolutely geared to that. It is short in duration and highly limited in use. It's really no longer a substitute as we've used it today or have used it for the last few years for the kind of more tailored and systematic programs that both Pete and I described earlier.

是的，文森特，這是一個非常簡單的答案——我們的問題值得一個簡單的答案。我將使它變得稍微複雜一些。答案是對於大多數使用我們今天所說的困難忍耐的客戶來說，這在 OCC 指導下仍然是允許的，而且我們的計劃絕對適合這一點。它的持續時間很短，並且使用受到很大限制。它實際上不再是我們今天或過去幾年使用它的替代品，用於皮特和我之前描述的那種更具定制性和系統性的程序。

There are some of our programs for which forbearance is a part of the recipe. But I think our plan is to sort of break those out separately in our reporting so that you can see those. But I would not necessarily expect that there would be huge changes in forbearance because I think we've largely operated under the new system for the last 2 years. And I think at the end of the day, it's serving a fundamentally different purpose than these other programs at this point in time.

在我們的一些計劃中，忍耐是其中的一部分。但我認為我們的計劃是在我們的報告中單獨列出這些內容，以便您可以看到它們。但我不一定期望寬容會發生巨大變化，因為我認為過去兩年我們基本上是在新系統下運作的。我認為歸根結底，它的目的與其他項目在這一點上根本不同。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark DeVries with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯。

Can you hear me now?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. Sorry about that. I had a couple of follow-up questions on credit. Just wanted to clarify some of the comments made. Jon, I thought I heard you indicate that part of the reason for the rise in delinquencies is related to some of the enrollment in some of these borrower assistance programs. Did I hear that correctly? And if so, what's kind of the dynamic there? Are you moving them into a status that has to be treated as delinquent? Is there something else affecting that?

好的。偉大的。對於那個很抱歉。我有幾個關於信用的後續問題。只是想澄清一些評論。喬恩，我想我聽到你指出，拖欠率上升的部分原因與某些借款人援助計劃的註冊人數有關。我沒聽錯嗎？如果是這樣，那裡的動態是什麼樣的？您是否要將他們置於必須被視為違法者的地位？還有其他什麼因素影響嗎？

Yes. So it's really a fairly mechanical answer. When someone enters one of our payment programs, before we can re-age them to current guidelines and the standards, say they have to make -- I think it's typically 3 qualifying payments. And so in a past world, we may have collected on that customer. In a past world, they may have gone through to default. In a past world, several years ago, they may have used forbearance and been brought current more quickly. Here, we have to see that period of positive pay before we can re-age them.

是的。所以這確實是一個相當機械的答案。當有人進入我們的一項付款計劃時，在我們將他們重新調整到當前的指導方針和標準之前，他們必須支付——我認為這通常是 3 筆合格付款。因此，在過去的世界中，我們可能已經收集了該客戶的資訊。在過去的世界裡，他們可能已經違約了。在過去的世界，幾年前，他們可能會忍耐並更快地適應潮流。在這裡，我們必須先看到那段時間的正薪酬，然後才能讓他們重新老化。

And so as we parse apart the delinquency data and we look at what portion of it is driven by what I would call normal sort of delinquent situations versus which are caused by this phenomena of customers making payments but waiting to re-age, that's what we believe has driven sort of the small increase that we talked about.

因此，當我們解析拖欠數據時，我們會看看其中哪些部分是由我所說的正常拖欠情況驅動的，哪些部分是由客戶付款但等待重新老化的這種現象引起的，這就是我們的目的相信推動了我們談到的小幅成長。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And it sounds like you're still pretty confident about year-over-year improvement in the charge-offs, this year included, weather charge-off comes in at the low end or the high end of that guidance range, should we expect charge-offs to be kind of higher in the first half of the year and then start trending down in the back half of 2024?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。聽起來您對沖銷的逐年改善仍然非常有信心，包括今年在內，天氣沖銷處於該指導範圍的低端或高端，我們是否應該預期沖銷- 今年上半年會有所上升，然後在2024 年下半年開始下降？

Yes. There is a seasonality to our charge-offs, which I think always occurs because -- and I think we talked about this on past calls. The most likely time, unfortunately, when a borrower gets into financial distress is pretty soon after they've entered repayment. These are young borrowers. They may not have sort of built up any savings at that point. They may be experiencing disruptions moving into the labor force. They may just not have yet the same financial habits that they would have later in life. And so we always see a period of seasonality in our results. And I think you should expect that same pattern of seasonality to persist in '24.

是的。我們的沖銷存在季節性，我認為這種情況總是會發生，因為——而且我認為我們在過去的電話中討論過這一點。不幸的是，借款人陷入財務困境的最有可能的時間是他們進入還款後不久。這些都是年輕的借款人。那時他們可能還沒有累積任何儲蓄。他們在進入勞動市場時可能會遇到障礙。他們可能只是還沒有像以後一樣的財務習慣。因此，我們總是在結果中看到一段季節性的時期。我認為你應該預料到同樣的季節性模式將在 24 年持續存在。

Our next question comes from the line of Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rick Shane 與摩根大通的對話。

Look, historically, this has been an industry that was concentrated amongst 3 originators, 2 have essentially exited the business. There's been some conversation about new entrants. But at the end of the day, what is the binding constraint in terms of your market share? Other than 100%...

從歷史上看，這個行業一直集中在 3 個發起者手中，其中 2 個已經退出該行業。有一些關於新進入者的討論。但歸根結底，對您的市場份額有約束力的約束是什麼？除了100%之外...

Rick, I think -- look, we absolutely continue to face, I think, lots of good competition in this business, Rick. And again, I'm not sure I want to go much deeper in predicting what's going to happen with the latest set of news. We'll see that play out over the next couple of months. But there are very formidable smaller, private and other players that we compete against. And at the end of the day, I think what sort of binds our market share potential is a little bit of competition. It's a little bit of customer choice. It's a little bit of different marketing strategies and focusing on different parts of the credit spectrum.

里克，我認為——看，我認為我們絕對會繼續面臨這個行業的許多良好競爭，里克。再說一次，我不確定我是否想更深入地預測最新的新聞將會發生什麼。我們將在接下來的幾個月中看到這一點。但我們也有一些非常強大的小型企業、私人企業和其他企業的競爭者。歸根究底，我認為限制我們市場佔有率潛力的是一點點競爭。這是客戶的一點選擇。這是一些不同的行銷策略，並專注於信用範圍的不同部分。

At the end of the day, we love our 55% market share. We think there's opportunity for it to go up a little bit. It's obviously grown nicely over the last 3 years. But I don't think anyone should expect that we will be 70%, 80% market share player. I think there will always be good competition in the market. And quite frankly, we welcome that. I think it makes us better when we've got great competition out there. I think it's better for the customers. So I would expect there to be that limit probably driven by a number of different factors and forces.

歸根結底，我們喜歡我們 55% 的市場份額。我們認為它有機會上漲一點。很明顯，它在過去三年裡成長得很好。但我認為任何人都不應該期望我們會佔據 70%、80% 的市場。我認為市場上永遠都會有良好的競爭。坦白說，我們對此表示歡迎。我認為當我們面臨激烈的競爭時，這會讓我們變得更好。我認為這對顧客來說更好。因此，我預計該限制可能是由許多不同的因素和力量驅動的。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Look, Moshe asked a question sort of trying to dimensionalize growth -- asset growth prospects, and we're in this unique window right now where there is a lot of market share up for grabs. Gain on sale has improved. And so potentially, the economics are shifting -- or clearly are shifting to be more favorable than they were at the end of last year or the end of '23. When you think about what the priority will be -- imagine a scenario where volumes -- market share is better than you're looking for, gain on sale is solid, that gives you the ability to hit the high end of your earnings guidance but it also potentially gives you the ability to form enough capital to grow beyond your 2% to 3% range. Conversely, there are going to be times where it's not going in your favor.

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。看，摩西提出了一個問題，試圖將成長維度化——資產成長前景，而我們現在正處於這個獨特的窗口，有大量的市場份額可供爭奪。銷售收益有所改善。因此，經濟狀況可能正在發生變化，或者明顯正在變得比去年年底或 23 世紀末更加有利。當您考慮優先事項時，想像一下這樣一種情況：銷量、市場份額比您期望的要好，銷售收益穩定，這使您有能力達到盈利指導的高端，但它還可能使您有能力形成足夠的資本，以超出2% 至3% 的範圍增長。相反，有時情況會不利於你。

Is the priority going to be to solve for earnings and let the growth of assets be the swing factor? Or is it going to be targeting the asset growth and letting earnings fluctuate?

是否優先解決獲利問題，讓資產成長成為搖擺因素？還是以資產成長為目標，讓獲利波動？

I think we're pretty clear in the December investor forum that we're going to step into growth over time. We're going to be relatively flat this year, our final sort of CECL transition year, and then we'll grow modestly in subsequent years. And so that framework calls for us to use loan sales as a governor of that balance sheet growth. That's fully what we intend to do as we embark on this strategy. So in your scenario of higher originations growth, then at the margins, we might do more loan sales as long as the pricing dynamic makes sense from an economic perspective.

我認為我們在 12 月的投資者論壇上非常清楚，我們將隨著時間的推移逐步實現成長。今年，我們將相對平穩，這是 CECL 過渡的最後一年，然後我們將在接下來的幾年中適度成長。因此，該框架要求我們利用貸款銷售來控制資產負債表的成長。這正是我們在實施這項策略時所打算做的。因此，在您的初始成長較高的情況下，只要從經濟角度來看定價動態有意義，我們就可能進行更多的貸款銷售。

Got it. So your priority is to follow that asset growth profile that you laid out in that 5-year case as closely as possible -- not regardless of conditions, but within a reasonable set of expectations?

知道了。因此，您的首要任務是盡可能嚴格遵循您在 5 年案例中製定的資產成長概況—不是不管條件如何，而是在合理的預期範圍內？

Yes. I think we said there that to the extent we start to see multiple expansion and getting rewarded for balance sheet growth, we'll do a little bit more of that. But if things stay status quo, then we'll do marginally more loan sales as long as the trade is there. And it's a dynamic evaluation of the value we're getting in the loan sale market versus the implied valuation of our balance sheet that we're getting in the equity market.

是的。我認為我們在那裡說過，當我們開始看到多重擴張並因資產負債表成長而獲得回報時，我們會做得更多。但如果情況維持現狀，那麼只要交易存在，我們就會稍微增加貸款銷售。這是對我們在貸款銷售市場獲得的價值與我們在股票市場獲得的資產負債表隱含估值的動態評估。

Great. I know it's fun answering questions what's going to happen in the next 12 months. It's even harder over the next 5 years. So thank you for answering that.

偉大的。我知道回答未來 12 個月會發生什麼的問題很有趣。未來5年更難。所以謝謝你的回答。

Our next question comes from the line of Giuliano Bologna with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Giuliano Bologna 與 Compass Point 的路線。

I had a question, maybe a little bit of a follow-up on (inaudible) was kind of touching on but from a different angle, one thing that I'm curious about is you've pivoted your kind of mix of originations towards fixed rate, which obviously has benefits as rates move down because it will make more liability sensitive. But I'm curious, at what point do you think about pivoting that strategy because originally more fixed rate loans at peak rates could also make them much more susceptible to consolidations in the future. I'm kind of curious at what point do you think about pivoting or moving back towards a higher mix of fixed rate originations?

我有一個問題，也許（聽不清楚）的一點後續行動有點觸及，但從不同的角度來看，我很好奇的一件事是，你已經將你的起源組合轉向固定的方向隨著利率下降，這顯然有好處，因為它會使責任更加敏感。但我很好奇，您會在什麼時候考慮改變這一策略，因為最初以最高利率提供更多固定利率貸款也可能使它們在未來更容易受到整合的影響。我有點好奇您在什麼時候考慮轉向或轉向更高的固定利率起源組合？

Yes. I mean the pricing dynamic is always something that we have control of at the margins. But I think there's also human emotional element in terms of what selections the borrowers are making. And I think the emotional reaction to the dramatic increase in rates over the last year, if you think about during the fall, there was more potential for further increases as inflation had not started to subside yet. So I think that overall customer choice has been a pretty dramatic impact on the mix of origination. I think that naturally will subside as we go into this year. But we'll be looking at that mix in terms of how we set our pricing grids as we go into peak this year.

是的。我的意思是，定價動態始終是我們可以控制的。但我認為借款人所做的選擇也存在人類情感因素。我認為，人們對去年利率大幅上漲的情緒反應，如果你考慮秋季期間，由於通膨尚未開始消退，進一步升息的可能性更大。因此，我認為整體客戶選擇對起源組合產生了相當大的影響。我認為隨著今年的到來，這種情況自然會消退。但當我們今年進入高峰時，我們將根據如何設定定價網格來考慮這種組合。

Yes. And Pete, I think the only thing I would add is we clearly don't have the ability to set those pricing grids in isolation. We do that sort of through the lens of our economic models, but we also do that through the lens of competitive realities. And so the fact is if fixed rate is what customers want and if competitors are pricing fixed rate at a level that makes that attractive, there is a certain competitive dynamic that, I think, Pete said it well. Our ability to influence that is on the margin, but it is much as part of the broader competitive set.

是的。皮特，我想我唯一要補充的是，我們顯然沒有能力單獨設置這些定價網格。我們透過經濟模型的視角來做到這一點，但我們也透過競爭現實的視角來做到這一點。因此，事實是，如果固定利率是客戶想要的，並且如果競爭對手將固定利率定價在一個有吸引力的水平，那麼就會存在一定的競爭動力，我認為，皮特說得很好。我們影響這一點的能力有限，但它很大程度上是更廣泛的競爭環境的一部分。

That's very helpful. And then one quick one, just thinking about the potential for market share gains. I'd be curious when you think about the kind of depth of the market for loan sales if you're able to capture some more additional market share, the numbers based on the midpoint of the 7% to 8% growth is already, call it, $200 million or so above the investor forum [number in '24]?

這非常有幫助。然後快速地思考一下市場佔有率成長的潛力。我很好奇，當您考慮貸款銷售市場的深度時，如果您能夠獲得更多額外的市場份額，則基於 7% 至 8% 增長中點的數字已經是，請致電投資者論壇上方的2 億美元左右[24 年數字]？

You're fading in and out. Maybe if you could get closer to your mic.

你在淡入又淡出。如果你能靠近你的麥克風就好了。

Sorry about that. Hopefully, it's a little bit better now. As you potentially gain market share, I'm curious when you think about the depth of the loan sales market. Is there -- do you think there's any limitation to the amount of loans you could sell in any given calendar year at this point? Or could margins be absorbed by loan sales?

對於那個很抱歉。希望現在好一點了。由於您有可能獲得市場份額，我很好奇您是否考慮了貸款銷售市場的深度。您認為目前在任何給定日曆年中可以出售的貸款金額是否有任何限制？或者利潤可以透過貸款銷售來吸收嗎？

Yes. I think the dynamic that we've seen over the last half decade is a pretty dramatic search for yielding assets to support pension liabilities, insurance liabilities and the mutual fund complexes. So I think there's a strong demand for student loans. I think we have a preeminent ABS platform in this space. And I don't see any issue in both loan sales or ABS funding to fund balance sheet growth as we sit here now. It's not infinite, but we don't need infinite demand for the asset class.

是的。我認為我們在過去五年中看到的動態是對收益資產的巨大探索，以支持退休金負債、保險負債和共同基金綜合體。所以我認為學生貸款的需求很強。我認為我們在這個領域擁有卓越的 ABS 平台。我們現在坐在這裡，我認為貸款銷售或資產支持證券融資沒有任何問題，可以為資產負債表的成長提供資金。它不是無限的，但我們不需要對該資產類別的無限需求。

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Jon Witter, CEO, for closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我不會再問任何問題了。現在我想將電話轉回給執行長喬恩‧威特 (Jon Witter)，讓其發表結束語。

Great. Thank you. And I appreciate everyone dialing in tonight. I appreciate the interest in Sallie Mae. As always, our IR team is standing by and happy to help follow up on specific questions that folks may have. And look forward to talking to you all again in about 3 months' time about our performance in the first quarter. With that, Melissa, I'll turn it back to you for, I think, a little bit of closing business.

偉大的。謝謝。我感謝今晚大家撥電話。我很欣賞大家對薩莉梅的興趣。像往常一樣，我們的 IR 團隊隨時待命，並樂意協助跟進人們可能提出的具體問題。並期待在大約3個月的時間裡再次與大家談論我們第一季的表現。有了這個，梅麗莎，我想，我會把它轉回給你，以完成一些業務。

Thank you for your time and questions today. A replay of this call and the presentation will be available on the Investors page at salliemae.com. If you have any further questions, feel free to contact me directly. This concludes today's call.

感謝您今天抽出時間並提出問題。本次電話會議和簡報的重播將在 salliemae.com 的投資者頁面上提供。如果您還有任何疑問，請隨時直接與我聯繫。今天的電話會議到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。