使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Skechers' fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call.
問候並歡迎參加 Skechers 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Skechers USA Incorporated.
提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興將電話轉給 Skechers USA Incorporated。
Thank you. You may begin.
謝謝。你可以開始了。
Jason D'Eath - Cybersecurity Engineering Lead
Jason D'Eath - Cybersecurity Engineering Lead
Good afternoon, everyone.
大家下午好。
Thank you for joining Skechers' fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Jason D'Eath, and I lead the cybersecurity engineering team here at Skechers. I've been with the company since 2013, and my favorite style is the SKX FLOAT from our Skechers basketball line.
感謝您參加 Skechers 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我叫 Jason D'Eath,我是 Skechers 網路安全工程團隊的負責人。我自 2013 年以來一直在該公司工作,我最喜歡的款式是 Skechers 籃球系列的 SKX FLOAT。
Joining us on today's call are Skechers' Chief Operating Officer, David Weinberg and Chief Financial Officer, John Vandemore.
參加今天電話會議的有 Skechers 營運長 David Weinberg 和財務長 John Vandemore。
Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone of the company's safe harbor statement. Certain statements made on today's call contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations, including without limitation; statements addressing the beliefs, plans, objectives, estimates, and expectations of the company, and its future results in certain events.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家注意公司的安全港聲明。今天電話會議上的某些聲明包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述,包括但不限於;有關公司信念、計劃、目標、估計和期望以及公司在某些事件中的未來結果的聲明。
These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors which may cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. There can be no assurance that the actual future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by any of our forward-looking statements will occur. Please refer to the company's reports filed with the SEC, including its annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for more information on these risks and uncertainties that may affect the company's business, financial conditions, cash flows, and results of operations.
這些前瞻性陳述涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素,可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。我們無法保證任何前瞻性陳述所表達或暗示的實際未來結果、績效或成就將會發生。有關可能影響公司業務、財務狀況、現金流量和經營業績的風險和不確定因素的更多信息,請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告,包括其 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Skechers' Chief Operating Officer, David Weinberg.
接下來,我想將電話轉給 Skechers 營運長 David Weinberg。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today on our fourth-quarter and full-year conference call.
下午好,感謝您今天參加我們的第四季和全年電話會議。
2024 was another growth year for Skechers, marked by strong financial performance and profitability, the launch of innovative products, and the expansion into new categories worldwide. It also marked a significant milestone in our history, our 25th year as a publicly traded company.
2024年是斯凱奇又一個成長年,其特點是強勁的財務業績和盈利能力、創新產品的推出以及在全球範圍內向新類別的擴張。這也是我們歷史上的一個重要里程碑——我們作為一家上市公司已經 25 週年。
On a constant currency basis, Skechers delivered sales of over $9 billion a 13% increase, and diluted earnings per shares of $4.40 representing a 26% increase while recording strong gross margin of 53.2% and achieving a double-digit operating margin of 10.1%. We also continued to return value to our shareholders through a repurchase of approximately 5.2 million shares during the year, while maintaining a healthy balance sheet.
以固定匯率計算,斯凱奇銷售額超過 90 億美元,成長 13%;每股攤薄收益為 4.40 美元,成長 26%,毛利率高達 53.2%,營業利潤率達到 10.1% 的兩位數。我們也透過在本年度回購約 520 萬股股票繼續向股東回報價值,同時保持健康的資產負債表。
We ended the year on a strong note, achieving fourth-quarter constant currency sales of $2.24 billion and earnings per share of $0.86. Our performance in the quarter was broad-based, with reported sales growth of 17% in wholesale and 8% in direct to consumer as well as 18% growth domestically and 10% growth internationally.
我們以強勁的業績結束了這一財年,第四季實現固定匯率銷售額 22.4 億美元,每股收益 0.86 美元。我們本季的表現基礎廣泛,批發銷售額成長 17%,直接面對消費者的銷售額成長 8%,國內銷售額成長 18%,國際銷售額成長 10%。
For over three decades, we've upheld our core principles of delivering style, comfort, innovation, and quality at an affordable price. We have maintained this commitment while evolving and adapting to meet the needs of our customers and drive global demand. This was again evident over the past year as we broadened the category reach of Skechers performance to deliver innovation and comfort for the court, pitch, field, green, and trail.
三十多年來,我們始終堅持我們的核心原則:以實惠的價格提供時尚、舒適、創新和優質的產品。我們始終堅守這項承諾,同時不斷發展和適應以滿足客戶的需求並推動全球需求。在過去的一年裡,這一點再次得到了體現,我們擴大了 Skechers 性能類別的範圍,為球場、球場、田野、綠地和小徑提供了創新和舒適感。
Building on the momentum of our Skechers' pickleball debut in 2022, we strategically expanded into soccer and basketball the following year. We focused initially on major markets for these global sports while partnering with world-class athletes to gain recognition and establish legitimacy. In 2024, we expanded our soccer and basketball offering with elite academy and youth styles available worldwide. And we introduced Skechers cricket footwear and apparel to India, which are now available globally. Our athletes provide valuable feedback on the development of best-in-comfort and best-in-performance technical footwear.
隨著 2022 年 Skechers 首次推出的匹克球運動的勢頭,我們在隔年策略性地擴展到足球和籃球領域。我們最初專注於這些全球運動的主要市場,同時與世界級運動員合作以獲得認可並建立合法性。2024 年,我們擴大了足球和籃球產品線,為全球客戶提供精英學院和青少年款式。我們將斯凱奇板球鞋和服裝引入印度,現在已在全球發售。我們的運動員對最舒適和性能最佳的技術鞋類的開發提供了寶貴的回饋。
In 2024, we expanded our roster of elite athletes to include Premier League's, Mohammed Kudus and Anthony Elanga; LaLiga's icon Lazada; Indian Super Leagues, Sunil Chhetri, and Turkey's national star, BarıŠAlper Yılmaz as well as NBA player, Joel Embiid and WNBA player, Rickea Jackson.
2024 年,我們擴大了精英運動員名單,包括英超聯賽的穆罕默德·庫杜斯 (Mohammed Kudus) 和安東尼·埃蘭加 (Anthony Elanga); LaLiga 的偶像 Lazada;印度超級聯賽的蘇尼爾·切特里 (Sunil Chhetri),以及土耳其國家隊明星巴爾韋德·阿爾珀·亞爾馬茲 (Alper Yılmaz) 以及 NBA 球員喬爾·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和 WNBA 球員里基亞·傑克遜 (Rickea Jackson)。
These athletes join our professional golfers Matt Fitzpatrick and Brooke Henderson; Pickleball pros Tyson McGuffin and Catherine Parenteau; and Major League Baseball players Clayton Kershaw and Aaron Nola among others. Additionally, we announced the signing of Ishan Kishan and Yastika Bhatia, two cricket athletes from the Mumbai Indians with more cricket and soccer players joining this year.
這些運動員與我們的職業高爾夫球手馬特·菲茨帕特里克和布魯克·亨德森一起;匹克球職業選手 Tyson McGuffin 和 Catherine Parenteau;以及美國職棒大聯盟球員克萊頓·克肖和亞倫·諾拉等。此外,我們還宣布簽約孟買印第安人隊的兩名板球運動員伊山·基尚 (Ishan Kishan) 和亞斯蒂卡·巴蒂亞 (Yastika Bhatia),今年還會有更多板球和足球運動員加入。
Leveraging our innovative designs, technical expertise, and commitment to comfort that performs; we see tremendous opportunities to expand beyond our existing performance footwear offering, extend our reach into new accounts and countries, and meet the evolving needs of our global consumer base.
利用我們的創新設計、技術專長和對舒適度的承諾;我們看到了巨大的機遇,可以擴展我們現有的高性能鞋類產品,將我們的業務範圍拓展到新的客戶和國家,並滿足全球消費者群體不斷變化的需求。
Further, we are focused on building successful signature technologies including Skechers Hands Free Slip-ins and Skechers' Arch Fit as well as pursuing unique partnerships to unlock new market opportunities and enhance our product portfolio. These include the co-branded footwear offering with John Deere, collections with Martha Stewart and Snoop Dogg and a collaboration with the Rolling Stones.
此外,我們專注於打造成功的標誌性技術,包括 Skechers Hands Free Slip-ins 和 Skechers' Arch Fit,同時尋求獨特的合作夥伴關係,以發掘新的市場機會並增強我們的產品組合。其中包括與 John Deere 聯合推出的品牌鞋類產品、與 Martha Stewart 和 Snoop Dogg 合作推出的系列產品以及與滾石樂隊合作推出的系列產品。
We continue to support our diverse product offering with broad-based campaigns to engage new and existing customers. These are featured across traditional mediums such as linear and digital television, newspapers, magazines, and social media as well as unconventional presence on stadium perimeter boards, buses and trains, airport security areas, and much more.
我們將繼續透過廣泛的活動來支持我們多樣化的產品供應,以吸引新舊客戶。這些廣告不僅出現在傳統媒體上,如線性和數位電視、報紙、雜誌和社群媒體,也出現在體育場週邊廣告看板、公車和火車、機場安全區等非常規場所。
Our lifestyle marketing efforts featured our diverse talented roster that includes Howie Mandel, Howie Long, Martha Stewart, and Brooke Burke as well as regional ambassadors like former European footballers Jamie Redknapp, Fabio Cannavaro, and Frank Leboeuf. Influencer Lele Pons in Mexico, K-pop singer and actor [Cha Eun-woo] in Southeast Asia, and Spanish singer David Bisal among others.
我們的生活方式行銷工作以我們多元化的才華橫溢的陣容為特色,其中包括 Howie Mandel、Howie Long、Martha Stewart 和 Brooke Burke,以及前歐洲足球運動員 Jamie Redknapp、Fabio Cannavaro 和 Frank Leboeuf 等地區大使。其中包括墨西哥的網紅Lele Pons、東南亞的韓國流行歌手兼演員[Cha Eun-woo]以及西班牙歌手David Bisal等。
We also partnered with regional influencers and key opinion leaders to drive awareness across social media platforms. Building on our history of airing memorable Super Bowl campaigns this year, we're planning an impactful moment with a commercial celebrating Kansas City Chiefs coach, Andy Reid, and his need for hands-free comfort.
我們也與地區有影響力的人和關鍵意見領袖合作,以提高社交媒體平台的知名度。基於我們今年播出令人難忘的超級盃宣傳活動的歷史,我們計劃播放一則具有影響力的廣告,慶祝堪薩斯城酋長隊教練安迪·里德以及他對免提舒適感的需求。
Believing consumers should be able to purchase our footwear in their destination of choice, we are enhancing the Skechers shopping experience in an impactful manner as we further grow our direct-to-consumer business with our first interactive performance store in Canada and in our wholesale business with shopping shops and brand takeovers. We are focused on enhancing our distribution network for greater efficiency and reach, enabling us to deliver more innovation, drive purchase intent, and ensure that our products are available globally.
我們相信消費者應該能夠在他們選擇的目的地購買我們的鞋類,我們正在以一種有影響力的方式增強斯凱奇的購物體驗,同時我們透過在加拿大開設第一家互動表演商店進一步發展我們的直接面向消費者的業務,並透過購物商店和品牌收購發展我們的批發業務。我們致力於增強我們的分銷網絡,以提高效率和影響力,使我們能夠提供更多創新,推動購買意願,並確保我們的產品在全球範圍內可用。
Looking at our fourth-quarter results in more detail. Our record fourth-quarter sales of $2.21 billion reflected breadth across geographies and channels. Domestic sales rose 18% and international improved 10%. We saw regional growth in the Americas of 14% with continued strength in the United States and Canada. In EMEA, with growth of 25%, driven by strength across nearly all markets. And in APAC, which increased 3.3%, led by double-digit growth in India, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. This was partially offset by a decline in China. However, our diverse product portfolio and established network of retail stores and online shopping destinations gives us confidence that we will return to growth as the market recovers.
更詳細地了解我們第四季的業績。我們第四季創紀錄的 22.1 億美元銷售額反映了我們跨地域和通路的廣度。國內銷售額成長 18%,國際銷售額成長 10%。我們看到美洲地區成長率為 14%,美國和加拿大持續保持強勁成長。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,幾乎所有市場的強勁成長,成長率達到 25%。亞太地區成長了 3.3%,其中印度、日本、韓國和泰國均實現了兩位數成長。但中國市場的下滑部分抵銷了這一影響。然而,我們多樣化的產品組合以及成熟的零售店和線上購物網絡讓我們有信心隨著市場的復甦恢復成長。
Wholesale increased 17% due to increases of 31% domestically and 10% internationally. Our domestic wholesale growth reflects the continued demand for our comfort technology products, resulting in strong double-digit increases across our many footwear product lines for men, women, and kids. Within international wholesale, we saw continued demand for our innovative products, which resulted in growth across nearly all markets.
由於國內成長 31% 和國際成長 10%,批發額成長了 17%。我們的國內批發增長反映了對我們的舒適技術產品的持續需求,從而導致我們的男士、女士和兒童等眾多鞋類產品線均實現了強勁的兩位數增長。在國際批發領域,我們看到對創新產品的需求持續成長,這推動了幾乎所有市場的成長。
Turning to our direct-to-consumer segment, sales increased 8.4% with international improving 9.3%, and domestic 6.8%. For the important holiday selling period, we saw an increase in in-store shopping with growth in nearly every market, including China. For our e-commerce, the Americas and EMEA both improved double digits while APAC was negatively impacted by the challenges in China.
轉向我們的直接面向消費者的領域,銷售額增長了 8.4%,其中國際銷售額增長了 9.3%,國內銷售額增長了 6.8%。在重要的假期銷售期,我們看到店內購物量增加,包括中國在內的幾乎每個市場都出現了成長。就我們的電子商務而言,美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區均實現了兩位數的成長,而亞太地區則受到中國挑戰的負面影響。
With the breadth of our product and global reach, Skechers' branded stores, both concept locations in quality malls and outlets and big-box stores in high traffic areas, continue to drive awareness and purchase intent. We ended the quarter with 5,296 Skechers stores worldwide, of which 1,787 are company owned locations, including 610 in the United States.
憑藉我們產品的廣度和全球影響力,斯凱奇品牌店(無論是優質購物中心和直銷店中的概念店還是人流量大的地區的大型商店)都不斷提高知名度和購買意願。截至本季度,Skechers 全球門市總數為 5,296 家,其中 1,787 家為公司自營門市,包括位於美國的 610 家。
We opened 77 company-owned stores in the quarter, including 20 big-box locations in the United States, 15 stores in China, and 5 each in Canada, Colombia, and Mexico. We also opened our first company-owned stores in the Philippines, 3 in total, and our first company owned-store in Prague. We closed 33 stores in the quarter.
我們在本季開設了 77 家自營商店,其中包括美國 20 家大型商店、中國 15 家商店以及加拿大、哥倫比亞和墨西哥各 5 家商店。我們也在菲律賓開設了第一家公司自營商店(總共 3 家),並在布拉格開設了第一家公司自營商店。本季我們關閉了 33 家商店。
Also in the period, 121 third-party stores opened, including 36 in China, 10 in Indonesia, 7 in Australia, and 6 each in India, Malaysia, and South Africa. Also of note, 197 third-party stores closed in China. This brings our third-party store account at quarter end to 3,509.
同期也開設了 121 家第三方門市,其中中國 36 家,印尼 10 家,澳洲 7 家,印度、馬來西亞和南非各 6 家。值得注意的是,中國有197家第三方商店關閉。這使得我們季度末的第三方商店帳戶數達到 3,509。
In the first quarter date, we've opened 14 company-owned stores, 6 of which are in China and 3 in the United States. We also relocated four stores, including our West Edmonton Mall location, which is now our largest concept store and includes indoor courts for both basketball and pickleball. We expect to open an additional 180 to 200 company-owned stores worldwide in 2025.
截至第一季度,我們開設了 14 家自營店,其中 6 家在中國,3 家在美國。我們還搬遷了四家門市,包括西埃德蒙頓購物中心店,它是目前我們最大的概念店,擁有室內籃球場和匹克球場。我們預計到 2025 年將在全球額外開設 180 至 200 家自營店。
From an investment perspective, our priorities include expanding our distribution centers in the United States, Europe, and China to more efficiently deliver our product and manage the expected growth in these markets, continuing to strengthen our product offering while amplifying demand creation and building our Skechers' direct-to-consumer footprint and capabilities.
從投資角度來看,我們的重點包括擴大我們在美國、歐洲和中國的配送中心,以更有效地交付我們的產品和管理這些市場的預期成長,繼續加強我們的產品供應,同時擴大需求創造並建立我們的斯凱奇直接面向消費者的足跡和能力。
And now I would like to turn the call over to John for more details on our financial results.
現在我想將電話轉給約翰,以了解有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝你,大衛,大家下午好。
Skechers delivered another year of outstanding results in 2024 as we continued executing against our long-term growth algorithm, which is rooted in our innovative comfort technology products and a compelling value proposition.
2024 年,斯凱奇再次取得了出色的成績,我們繼續按照我們的長期成長演算法進行操作,該演算法植根於我們創新的舒適技術產品和引人注目的價值主張。
For the full year, Skechers achieved constant currency sales of $9.04 billion an increase of 13%, and earnings per share of $4.40, an increase of 26%. Gross margins were 53.2%, and we obtained a double-digit operating margin of 10.1%.
全年來看,斯凱奇實現固定匯率銷售額90.4億美元,年增13%;每股收益4.40美元,年增26%。毛利率為53.2%,營業利益率達兩位數10.1%。
During the fourth quarter, particularly after the US elections, the strengthening of the US dollar resulted in unfavorable foreign currency exchange headwinds which significantly impacted reported results, where sales grew to $8.97 billion, up 12%, and earnings per share rose 19% to $4.16.
第四季度,特別是美國大選後,美元走強導致不利的外匯逆風,嚴重影響了報告業績,銷售額成長至 89.7 億美元,成長 12%,每股收益成長 19% 至 4.16 美元。
Our 2024 accomplishments are noteworthy. From the rebound in domestic wholesale sales to incredible strength abroad, particularly in the EMEA region. In addition, we saw steady growth in our domestic direct-to-consumer channel following last year's impressive growth of 19%.
我們在 2024 年所取得的成就值得關注。從國內批發銷售的反彈到海外的驚人強勁成長,特別是在歐洲、中東和非洲地區。此外,去年實現 19% 的驚人成長後,我們的國內直銷通路也穩定成長。
All of this is remarkable considering the challenges we experienced throughout the year, including the difficult macroeconomic environment in China, supply chain disruptions resulting from the Red Sea crisis, and new regulatory standards abroad. Our performance is a testament to the effectiveness of our global diversification as well as the investments we have made to increase awareness and accessibility for our comfort technology products.
考慮到我們全年所經歷的挑戰,包括艱難的中國宏觀經濟環境、紅海危機導致的供應鏈中斷以及國外新的監管標準,這一切都是了不起的。我們的業績證明了我們全球多元化策略的有效性,以及我們為提高舒適技術產品的知名度和可及性而進行的投資。
Turning to the quarter, Skechers delivered as reported fourth-quarter sales of $2.21 billion, an increase of 13%, driven by growth across segments and geographies. Direct-to-consumer sales grew 8.4% year over year to $1.08 billion. International sales grew 9.3% with strength throughout the quarter in most markets and across both retail and e-commerce channels. Domestic sales increased 6.8% following 12% growth last year, with improvements across channels. The key holiday shopping period was characterized by robust online sales and improved sequential sales in our stores. These results illustrate the resiliency of the domestic consumer who continues to choose the Skechers' brand and our compelling array of comfortable and affordable footwear.
回顧本季度,斯凱奇公佈的第四季度銷售額為 22.1 億美元,成長 13%,這得益於各部門和各地區的成長。直接面向消費者的銷售額年增 8.4% 至 10.8 億美元。本季度,大多數市場以及零售和電子商務通路的國際銷售額均成長 9.3%,表現強勁。國內銷售額繼去年成長 12% 之後,成長 6.8%,各通路銷售額均有所改善。關鍵的假日購物期的特點是網上銷售強勁,並且我們商店的銷售額連續增長。這些結果顯示國內消費者俱有很強的韌性,他們繼續選擇斯凱奇品牌和我們一系列舒適且價格實惠的鞋類。
Wholesale sales increased 17% year over year to $1.13 billion. Domestic sales grew 31%, the result of a healthier wholesale marketplace combined with strong consumer demand for Skechers' products. International sales increased 10%, reflecting double-digit growth in most markets, partially offset by the results in China.
批發銷售額年增17%至11.3億美元。國內銷售額成長了 31%,這是批發市場更健康以及消費者對 Skechers 產品的強勁需求的結果。國際銷售額成長了 10%,反映出大多數市場都實現了兩位數的成長,但中國市場的業績部分抵銷了這一成長。
Now turning to our regional sales. In the America, sales for the fourth-quarter increased 14% year over year to $1.09 billion, driven by strength in our domestic wholesale channel and steady growth in our direct-to-consumer business across nearly every market. In EMEA, sales increased 25% year over year to $478.6 million, driven by double-digit growth in both the wholesale and direct-to-consumer businesses.
現在談談我們的區域銷售。在美國,第四季度的銷售額年增 14% 至 10.9 億美元,這得益於我們國內批發通路的強勁成長以及幾乎所有市場的直接面向消費者的業務的穩步增長。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,銷售額年增 25% 至 4.786 億美元,這得益於批發和直接面向消費者業務的兩位數成長。
In Asia Pacific, sales increased 3.3% versus the prior year to $642.4 million. However, excluding China, Asia-Pacific sales grew 26%, led by India delivering another strong quarter of robust gains as well as strength across channels in nearly every other market. China continues to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment and our fourth-quarter sales declined 11%.
在亞太地區,銷售額比上年增長 3.3%,達到 6.424 億美元。然而,除中國外,亞太地區銷售額成長了 26%,其中印度市場再創佳績,本季成長強勁,幾乎所有其他市場的通路銷售額也均表現強勁。中國繼續面臨充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境,我們第四季的銷售額下降了 11%。
Gross margin was 53.3%, up 20 basis points compared to the prior year, primarily due to a favorable channel mix. Operating expenses decreased 70 basis points as a percentage of sales year over year to 45.8%. Selling expenses as a percentage of sales decreased 40 basis points versus last year to 8.9% as we lapped higher spending in the prior year on brand building to increase awareness and to educate consumers about our comfort technologies and new categories. General and administrative expenses decrease 30 basis points as a percentage of sales to 36.9%, with the leverage primarily driven by improvements in distribution and outside services expenses.
毛利率為53.3%,較前一年上升20個基點,主要得益於有利的通路組合。營業費用佔銷售額的比例年減 70 個基點至 45.8%。銷售費用佔銷售額的百分比比去年下降了 40 個基點,至 8.9%,原因是我們在上一年增加了品牌建設支出,以提高知名度並讓消費者了解我們的舒適技術和新產品類別。一般及行政開支佔銷售額的百分比下降 30 個基點至 36.9%,槓桿率主要受分銷和外部服務費用改善的推動。
Earnings from operations were $165.5 million, an increase of 27% compared to the prior year. Operating margin for the quarter was 7.5%, compared to 6.6% last year, and for the full year, Skechers achieved a double-digit operating margin of 10.1%.
營業利潤為1.655億美元,較上年成長27%。本季營業利益率為 7.5%,去年為 6.6%,全年斯凱奇的營業利益率達兩位數,為 10.1%。
As mentioned earlier, unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates during the quarter, the impact of which is reflected in the other expense line item of our P&L, totaled $34.7 million and represented an increase of $45.1 million compared to the prior year.
如前所述,本季不利的外匯匯率(其影響反映在我們的損益表的其他費用項目中)總計 3,470 萬美元,比上年增加 4,510 萬美元。
Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 11.8% compared to 20.3% in the prior year, reflecting a favorable mix of earnings in lower tax jurisdictions and impacts from foreign currency losses. For the full year, our effective tax rate was 16.9% compared to 18.8% in the prior year. As we prepare for 2025, an important consideration will be the implementation of global minimum tax regulations, which we will address further in our guidance.
我們第四季的有效稅率為 11.8%,而去年同期為 20.3%,這反映了低稅管轄區的獲利情況以及外匯損失的影響。全年我們的有效稅率為 16.9%,而上年度為 18.8%。在我們為2025年做準備時,一個重要的考慮因素是實施全球最低稅率規定,我們將在指導中進一步討論這個問題。
Earnings per share were $0.65 per diluted share, a 16% increase compared to the prior year on $152.2 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding. However, on a constant currency basis, earnings per share were $0.86, representing a 54% increase year over year.
每股盈餘為每股攤薄收益 0.65 美元,較上年增長 16%,加權平均稀釋流通股數為 1.522 億美元。但以固定匯率計算,每股收益為 0.86 美元,年增 54%。
And now turning to our balance sheet, inventory was $1.92 billion, an increase of 26% or $394 million compared to the prior year. In-transit inventory remains elevated, particularly in EMEA due to increased shipping times from the closure of the Suez Canal, and we continue to actively manage inventory levels in China, which improved sequentially.
現在來看看我們的資產負債表,庫存為 19.2 億美元,比前一年增加 26% 或 3.94 億美元。在途庫存仍然很高,特別是在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,因為蘇伊士運河關閉導致運輸時間增加,我們繼續積極管理中國的庫存水平,該水平已連續改善。
Accounts receivable at quarter end were $990.6 million, an increase of $130.3 million compared to the prior year reflecting higher wholesale sales. We ended the quarter with $1.38 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments and maintained liquidity of $2.13 billion when including a revolving credit facility.
季末應收帳款為 9.906 億美元,較上年增加 1.303 億美元,反映批發銷售額增加。本季結束時,我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 13.8 億美元,包括循環信貸額度在內,流動性仍維持在 21.3 億美元。
Capital expenditures for the quarter were $133.4 million, of which $54.5 million related to investments in our distribution infrastructure, $51.3 million related to new store openings and enhancing our direct-to-consumer technologies, and $15.6 million related to the expansion of our corporate offices. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.9 million shares of our Class A common stock at a cost of $120 million and for the year, we repurchased approximately 5.2 million shares at a cost of approximately $330 million. We continued to deploy our capital consistent with our stated philosophy while maintaining a durable balance sheet and ample liquidity.
本季的資本支出為 1.334 億美元,其中 5,450 萬美元與投資分銷基礎設施有關,5,130 萬美元與開設新店和增強直接面向消費者的技術有關,1,560 萬美元與擴建公司辦公室有關。本季度,我們以 1.2 億美元的成本回購了約 190 萬股 A 類普通股,全年我們以約 3.3 億美元的成本回購了約 520 萬股。我們繼續按照既定理念部署資本,同時保持穩健的資產負債表和充足的流動性。
Now turning to guidance. As we begin 2025, we face several headwinds and uncertainties, including unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates, the emergence of global minimum tax regulations, and the depth and length of the continuing macroeconomic weakness in China. In addition, the recently announced incremental US tariffs on goods from China has impacted our visibility. And while we have not yet fully factored their potential impact and our response into the following guidance, it will likely comprise a combination of actions, including the reallocation of certain production, vendor concessions, and pricing.
現在轉向指導。2025年開始,我們面臨多重阻力和不確定性,包括不利的外匯匯率、全球最低稅率規定的出現,以及中國宏觀經濟持續疲軟的深度和長度。此外,美國最近宣布對中國商品加徵關稅,也影響了我們的知名度。雖然我們尚未將其潛在影響和我們的應對措施完全納入以下指導方針,但它可能包括一系列行動,包括重新分配某些生產、供應商讓步和定價。
For the full year 2025, we expect sales in the range of $9.7 billion to $9.8 billion. Based on prevailing foreign currency exchange rates, this reflects a headwind of approximately 200 basis points or roughly $200 million to our organic sales growth rate.
我們預計 2025 年全年銷售額將在 97 億美元至 98 億美元之間。根據現行外匯匯率,這反映出我們的有機銷售成長率將面臨約 200 個基點或約 2 億美元的阻力。
Earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of $4.30 to $4.50, reflecting both foreign currency exchange rate impacts as well as the upcoming application of global minimum tax regulations, which is anticipated to elevate our effective tax rate for the year to be between 22% and 23%, although the precise impact remains to be assessed.
預計每股攤薄收益在 4.30 美元至 4.50 美元之間,既反映了外匯匯率的影響,也反映了即將實施的全球最低稅法規,預計這將使我們今年的有效稅率提升至 22% 至 23% 之間,但具體影響仍有待評估。
Minority interest is expected to decline in mid-teens and capital expenditures are anticipated to be between $600 million and $700 million for the year as we continue to invest in our strategic priorities. This includes ongoing distribution center expansions to support continued growth, including China, which is expected to be operational at the end of 2026. And the further expansion of our North America distribution Center with an adjacent 1 million square feet, which is expected to be operational in early 2026.
由於我們將繼續對戰略重點進行投資,少數股權預計將下降至十幾歲的水平,預計今年的資本支出將在 6 億至 7 億美元之間。其中包括正在進行的配送中心擴建以支援持續成長,其中中國配送中心預計將於 2026 年底投入營運。我們的北美配送中心將進一步擴建,面積將達到 100 萬平方英尺,預計將於 2026 年初投入營運。
For the first quarter, we expect sales in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.425 billion and net earnings per share in the range of $1.10 to $1.15, reflecting a roughly pro rata share of the aforementioned impacts from foreign currency and taxes as well as some elevated demand creation spending.
對於第一季度,我們預計銷售額將在 24 億美元至 24.25 億美元之間,每股淨收益將在 1.10 美元至 1.15 美元之間,這大致反映了上述外匯和稅收的影響以及一些增加的需求創造支出。
While the year ahead presents many unknowns, we remain confident in our long-term strategies and committed to reinvesting in our business for sustainable and profitable growth while consistently delivering consumers the style, comfort, and quality they desire at a reasonable price.
儘管未來的一年充滿許多未知數,但我們對我們的長期策略仍然充滿信心,並致力於對我們的業務進行再投資,以實現可持續的盈利增長,同時始終如一地以合理的價格為消費者提供他們想要的款式、舒適度和品質。
We thank you all for your time today and look forward to updating you on our first quarter financial results, which we expect to release on Thursday, April 24, 2025.
感謝大家今天的時間,我們期待向您通報我們的第一季財務業績,我們預計將於 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四發布。
With that, I will now turn the call over to David for closing remarks.
說完這些,我現在將電話轉給戴維,請他作最後發言。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Thank you, John.
謝謝你,約翰。
The robust global demand for a diverse product led to a new annual sales record of $9 billion on a constant currency rate. The strength in our business is attributable to our differentiated market position that combines comfort, innovation, style, and quality at an attainable price. We continue to advance our product innovation with comfort technologies across our collections from extensions and Skechers Hand Free Slip-ins to our existing performance footwear offering as well as expanding the portfolio, including our latest edition of Skechers Cricket in India.
全球對多樣化產品的強勁需求推動其以固定匯率計算的年銷售額創下 90 億美元的新紀錄。我們業務的優勢歸功於我們差異化的市場地位,將舒適性、創新性、時尚性和品質與可負擔的價格融為一體。我們繼續透過在整個系列中採用舒適技術來推進我們的產品創新,從擴展和 Skechers 免提一腳蹬鞋到我們現有的高性能鞋類產品,以及擴展產品組合,包括我們在印度的最新版 Skechers Cricket。
While we remain focused on our core business, we believe our performance division with basketball, soccer, golf, running, and pickleball footwear will become an increasingly important part of our growth story globally. To meet the evolving needs of consumers worldwide, both now and in the future, we are investing in our operations. This includes improved operational capabilities with the expansion of our distribution centers in the US, China, and Europe, delivering an exceptional customer experience through our direct-to-consumer channel and increasing our points of sale through our valuable retail partnerships. We believe our strategic product, marketing, and operational plans executed by our dedicated team will result in notable achievements and continued profitable growth in the years to come.
雖然我們仍然專注於核心業務,但我們相信,我們的籃球、足球、高爾夫、跑步和匹克球鞋部門將成為我們全球成長故事中越來越重要的一部分。為了滿足現在和未來全球消費者不斷變化的需求,我們正在對我們的營運進行投資。這包括透過擴展我們在美國、中國和歐洲的配送中心來提高營運能力,透過我們的直接面向消費者的管道提供卓越的客戶體驗,並透過我們寶貴的零售合作夥伴關係增加我們的銷售點。我們相信,由我們專業團隊執行的策略產品、行銷和營運計劃將在未來幾年取得顯著的成就並持續實現獲利成長。
As always, we are grateful for the contribution of the entire Skechers organization.
一如既往,我們感謝整個 Skechers 組織的貢獻。
Now, I would like to turn the call over to the operator for questions.
現在,我想將電話轉給接線員以便提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
Jay Sole, UBS.
瑞銀的傑伊·索爾 (Jay Sole)
Jay Sole - Analyst
Jay Sole - Analyst
David John, thanks so much for giving the guidance on '25 and first quarter. Just looking for a little detail. If you're thinking about gross margin for fiscal '25, what outlook, should we think about when it comes to modeling gross margin.
David John,非常感謝您對 25 年和第一季的指導。只是想找一點細節。如果您正在考慮 25 財年的毛利率,那麼在建立毛利率模型時我們應該考慮什麼樣的前景。
Thank you.
謝謝。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, first of all, I realized there's a lot going on in the guidance, which is why we try to elaborate a bit. The tax rate is definitely something I would encourage everyone to take a look at the emphasis on global minimum tax regulations is pretty significant in the year and so that that's certainly something to be cognizant of.
是的,首先,我意識到指導中有很多內容,這就是我們嘗試詳細說明的原因。我絕對鼓勵大家關注稅率,今年對全球最低稅率規定的重視程度相當高,因此這肯定是需要注意的事情。
I think if we look at the gross margin, I mean one of the things we're most proud of over the last three years is the accretion we've delivered through gross margins starting at a product level and then carrying through the rest of our business channels in wholesale and in direct-to-consumer. I would say, we're not anticipating a material change in the gross margin overall. Right now as we look the business looks fairly balanced in growth, so we might not see as much of that incremental accretion from the emphasis on international and DTC that we've talked about historically, but that's a good thing because we're seeing strong growth across the channels before us.
我認為,如果我們看一下毛利率,那麼過去三年中我們最引以為豪的事情之一就是我們透過從產品層面開始的毛利率的成長,然後再貫穿到批發和直接面向消費者的其他業務管道。我想說,我們預計整體毛利率不會有重大變化。現在,我們看業務的成長看起來相當均衡,因此我們可能不會看到像我們過去談到的一樣,透過強調國際和 DTC 而帶來的增量,但這是件好事,因為我們看到面前的各個管道都出現了強勁增長。
Now, I will say in the quarters we may see some fluctuations. Certainly, we need to understand more fully how the recently enacted tariffs are going to unfurl with throughout the year. But we do believe we have the ability and have shown in the past to compensate for that and defend these margins. So more than anything else, I would say, looking for stability overall, there may be some small variability on a quarter-to-quarter basis, but overall we think the year should offer us a continued opportunity to appreciate the gross margin improvement we've made over the last three years.
現在,我想說的是,我們可能會在季度中看到一些波動。當然,我們需要更全面地了解最近實施的關稅將如何在今年內展開。但我們確實相信,我們有能力並且過去已經證明可以彌補這一點並捍衛這些利潤。因此,我想說,最重要的是,尋求整體穩定,每個季度之間可能會有一些小的變化,但總的來說,我們認為今年應該為我們提供一個持續的機會來欣賞過去三年來所取得的毛利率提高。
Jay Sole - Analyst
Jay Sole - Analyst
All right, that sounds great. So there was a lot of information in that answer. You're saying basically that the mixed impact that you've been seeing to DTC and also international, this year maybe you're going to see balanced growth across channels and also across geography. So that's one reason we should think about gross margin -- it sounds like similar sort of the last year is basically I think John what you're saying (multiple speakers) if I'm correct.
好的,聽起來很棒。這個答案包含了很多資訊。您基本上是說,您所看到的 DTC 和國際影響是混合的,今年也許您將看到跨渠道和跨地區的均衡增長。所以這就是我們應該考慮毛利率的一個原因——聽起來和去年的情況類似,基本上我想約翰,如果我沒記錯的話,你所說的就是(多個發言者)。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, that's absolutely right.
是的,完全正確。
Operator
Operator
Laurent Vasilescu, BNP Paribas.
法國巴黎銀行的洛朗‧瓦西里萊斯庫 (Laurent Vasilescu)。
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
I wanted to follow up on Jay's question about margins. I might be modeling this form, but it looks like, I know you don't guide the even margins, John, but it looks like it implies operating margins for the year to be down about 150 basis points. So I'm trying to square this away with the answer to Jay. If gross margins are going to be somewhat flattish, is there something in the SG&A that is a source of pressure to the operating margin?
我想跟進傑伊關於利潤的問題。我可能正在對這種形式進行建模,但它看起來,我知道你沒有指導均勻的利潤率,約翰,但它看起來意味著今年的營業利潤率將下降約 150 個基點。因此我嘗試透過回答傑伊的問題來解決這個問題。如果毛利率持平,那麼銷售、一般及行政費用中是否存在某些因素會對營業利潤率造成壓力?
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
I think that sounds a bit much to us. Our objective is obviously to sustain this recently achieved double-digit operating margin. If there's going to be some push and pull on factors in the business that we don't quite control, particularly around foreign exchange, we're also obviously monitoring China in a material way, and we do know that we want to be aggressive in managing that inventory as we were this quarter and it was down sequentially reflecting that.
我認為這對我們來說有點太多了。我們的目標顯然是維持最近實現的兩位數的營業利潤率。如果業務中出現一些我們無法完全控制的推拉因素,特別是在外匯方面,我們顯然也會以實質性的方式監控中國,並且我們確實知道我們希望積極管理庫存,就像我們本季度的情況一樣,庫存量環比下降也反映了這一點。
So what you mentioned sounds a bit rough. I would probably suggest that our objective is to guide to flat. If we get there, I think that'll be an indication that we saw some cooperation in situations like FX in China. If we're going to be off from that, if I don't expect at this point in time that it would be a materially different rate than what we delivered this year. And again our goal is to sustain that and move that forward, but there's some factors that are beyond our control we need to consider.
所以你提到的聽起來有點粗糙。我可能會建議我們的目標是引導平坦。如果我們達到這一目標,我認為這將表明我們在中國外匯等領域看到了一些合作。如果我們要偏離這個目標,如果我不認為此時此刻我們的預期會與我們今年實現的水平有實質的差異。我們的目標是維持這種狀況並繼續向前發展,但我們需要考慮一些我們無法控制的因素。
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Okay, very helpful, John.
好的,非常有幫助,約翰。
And then, US wholesale, another great quarter. I know you've given a long-term target to grow that channel mid singles. Is that the right assumption for this fiscal year? Do you lack those growth rates from 2024, so it could be actually lower than that.
然後,美國批發業又迎來了一個偉大的季度。我知道您已設定了長期目標,要促進該管道中單的成長。這對於本財政年度來說是正確的假設嗎?您是否缺少 2024 年的成長率,所以實際上可能低於這個數字。
And then just a housekeeping question on FX. I was a little bit surprised that FX was a $0.21 hit to the fourth quarter. Just to understand what's the implications. What is your FY25 and first-quarter guide [in that] in terms of FX, on EPS with current spot?
接下來是關於外匯的一個基本問題。我對外匯在第四季度遭受 0.21 美元的打擊感到有點驚訝。只是想了解其意義。就外匯、每股盈餘和當前現貨而言,您對 2025 財年和第一季的指導是什麼?
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
I'm pretty sure that was more than one question, Laurent.
我很確定這不只是一個問題,Laurent。
I would say, first and foremost you mentioned the tremendous rebound we saw on the domestic wholesale side this year, and I think that's worth mentioning again because the wholesale team here did a great job backed by fantastic product and excellent marketing and to deliver on the back of a very challenging year, a rebound like we've seen is pretty phenomenal and certainly our thanks go out to the entire team for delivering that.
我想說,首先,您提到了我們今年在國內批發方面看到的巨大反彈,我認為這值得再次提及,因為這裡的批發團隊在出色的產品和出色的營銷的支持下做得非常出色,並且在非常具有挑戰性的一年裡取得瞭如此大的反彈,我們看到的反彈非常驚人,當然我們要感謝整個團隊的實現。
I think if you look to this year, I do believe we're going to start gravitating back down toward that longer-term horizon of a mid-single digit growth number for wholesale, so I'd say that's a good number to consider but obviously we're also pushing to do better than that. There's certainly opportunities out there, so I wouldn't be shocked if it's a little bit above that this year. What it's not going to be like is this last year where we had such fantastic nearly 20% growth. That's pretty amazing, and that would be hard to duplicate in the current environment of any wholesale market at this point.
我認為,如果展望今年,我們將開始重新回到批發業務的中個位數成長的長期目標,所以我認為這是一個值得考慮的好數字,但顯然我們也在努力做得更好。肯定存在機會,因此,如果今年的成長率略高於這個數字,我不會感到驚訝。我們去年實現了近 20% 的驚人成長,但今年的情況不同了。這是相當令人驚奇的,並且在目前任何批發市場的環境下都很難複製。
As you look to next year, it's difficult to project out an FX impact with perfect accuracy because I would presume we know exactly where all the currencies are going to be and quite frankly where all the revenue's going to come from. I would tell you it's a sizable impact. It's probably going to be on the order of between $0.15 and $0.20 right now as we look forward.
展望明年,很難完全準確地預測外匯影響,因為我認為我們確切地知道所有貨幣的走向,以及所有收入的來源。我想告訴你,影響是相當大的。展望未來,目前價格可能在 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元之間。
And again, that's, from the fairly pronounced move we saw after the US elections, the strengthening of the US dollar abroad, it hit us very much so in the fourth quarter beyond our expectation as well and that simply comes from the transactional impact of having a lot of balance sheet items that are denominated in foreign currencies and how those get remeasured. And I'll note this is a pretty extraordinary environment. I don't think there was a currency that didn't weaken relative to the US dollar and in some instances at high-single digit levels over a very short period of time. That's why we were hit.
再次,從美國大選後我們看到的相當明顯的走勢來看,美元在海外走強,這對我們第四季度的打擊非常大,也超出了我們的預期,而這僅僅是由於大量以外幣計價的資產負債表項目及其重新計量方式對交易的影響。我要指出的是,這是一個相當特殊的環境。我認為,沒有一種貨幣相對於美元不會在很短的時間內貶值,在某些情況下甚至會貶值到高個位數。這就是我們被擊中的原因。
Now we'll benefit from that when things turn around, but In the short term, it impacted us, which is also why I think you need to look to the headline EPS we mentioned. Certainly, the as-reported results were below what we had previously guided, but if you adjust for the extraordinary impacts of FX, you can see we were well above that both on the sales side and on the earnings per share side. So I think, recognizing that that was a fairly material, sizable, and on short notice impact for us to deal with is important.
當情況好轉時,我們將從中受益,但在短期內,它會對我們產生影響,這也是為什麼我認為你需要關注我們提到的整體每股盈餘。當然,報告的結果低於我們先前的預期,但如果考慮到外匯的特殊影響,您會發現我們的銷售額和每股盈餘都遠高於預期。因此我認為,認識到這對我們來說是一個相當重大、相當大且需要短時間應對的影響是很重要的。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Yeah, I should also note that the balance sheets items don't replicate even if the currency doesn't get any better. So we're really talking about the impact to volumes and some of the profitability. The balance sheet items go away, so it takes a little bit of the issue away and gives you some upside as they come back.
是的,我還應該指出,即使貨幣沒有任何好轉,資產負債表項目也不會重複。所以我們實際上談論的是銷售量和部分獲利能力的影響。資產負債表項目消失了,因此它會帶走一些問題,並在它們再次出現時為你帶來一些好處。
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Okay, very helpful.
好的,很有幫助。
Thank you very much for the call and best of luck.
非常感謝您的來電並祝您好運。
Operator
Operator
Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的亞歷克斯·斯特拉頓。
Alex Straton - Analyst
Alex Straton - Analyst
I just wanted to focus quickly on the international part of the business. It looks like revenue decelerated a bit quarter over quarter, just trying to understand if something changed there as well as what you're assuming for 2025.
我只是想迅速將注意力集中到業務的國際部分。看起來收入每個季度都略有下降,只是想了解那裡是否發生了變化,以及您對 2025 年的假設。
And then just secondly on this tax change, is that something that we should assume going forward or does something change next year?
其次,關於這次稅改,這是我們未來應該假設的事情嗎,還是明年會改變?
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, on the international side of things, particularly in this quarter, quite frankly, China was the drag. We mentioned it was down about 11%. Really absent China and maybe one or two other markets, what we saw, and I think David gave comment to on our prepared remarks, was very broad strength across the world, across geographies, across channels within the geography.
是的,從國際方面來看,特別是在本季度,坦白說,中國是拖累因素。我們提到它下降了約 11%。實際上,除了中國和可能一兩個其他市場之外,我們看到的是,全球範圍內、跨地區、跨地區內跨渠道的廣泛實力,我想大衛在我們準備好的評論中也對此發表了評論。
So if anything, I would tell you the international market felt very, very robust for us. And I would even say that we left a little bit on the table due to some delivery time frames that that weren't achieved. So we feel really good about where international was this quarter, where it's going. China continues to be the challenge that and its size and scale gives it a disproportionate impact, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
因此,如果有什麼的話,我想告訴你,國際市場對我們來說非常非常強勁。我甚至可以說,由於一些交付時間框架未能實現,我們也留下了一些問題。因此,我們對本季國際業務的狀況和未來發展感到非常滿意。中國繼續帶來挑戰,其規模和範圍給它帶來不成比例的影響,特別是在亞太地區。
As we look forward to the year, I think that's going to be the swing factor. We still expect a mid-to high-single digits, maybe teens level. Some of that's going to be FX impacted though. So when you think about the FX impact overall, we mentioned it was probably around a $200-million headwind going into the year. Obviously, that only applies to the international market, so it's a heavy impact as it stands right now and we'll update that view as we go along throughout the year because the extent rates change back or move materially from here that would be a tailwind if the dollar gets a little bit weaker.
當我們展望新的一年時,我認為這將成為一個決定性因素。我們仍然預期成長率會達到中高個位數,甚至可能是十幾歲的水平。不過其中一些會受到外匯的影響。因此,當您考慮整體外匯影響時,我們提到,這可能將是今年約 2 億美元的逆風。顯然,這只適用於國際市場,因此就目前而言,影響很大,我們將在全年更新這一觀點,因為如果美元稍微走弱,利率將從現在開始回落或發生實質性變動,這將成為順風。
On the global minimum tax that's a new tax regime that's going in across the globe. I think we're probably earlier on the curve to talk about that with you all because we have been very tax efficient historically and it very much matters which jurisdictions you've leveraged and how they apply the OECD's global minimum tax, but this is going to be a global event. You've heard some chatter about it in the recent administration, some dissatisfaction about it, but as it stands, the way regulations are established, there's going to be almost no haven below that 15%, and that's just going to naturally push up our rate.
關於全球最低稅,這是全球推行的一項新稅制。我認為我們可能會比較早點與大家討論這個問題,因為從歷史上看,我們的稅收效率非常高,而且你利用了哪些司法管轄區以及它們如何應用經合組織的全球最低稅率非常重要,但這將是一個全球性事件。您可能已經聽到最近政府對此的一些議論,一些不滿,但就目前情況而言,按照目前的監管規定,低於 15% 的稅率幾乎不會有任何避稅天堂,而這自然會推高我們的稅率。
We're going to do some -- we're going to take some measures to mitigate that in the near term, but it definitely will likely become a forthcoming base rate, and I think you're going to see that from a lot of other companies as well. The one caveat would be, it is subject to regulatory and administration pushes and pulls, so we'll see if there's any change on that but the prior administration was a big supporter of global minimum tax regimes and now they're coming into effect.
我們將採取一些措施——我們將在短期內採取一些措施來緩解這種情況,但它肯定會成為即將到來的基本利率,我認為你也會從許多其他公司看到這種情況。一個需要注意的問題是,它受到監管和行政部門的推動和拉動,所以我們將看看是否會有任何變化,但前政府是全球最低稅制的大力支持者,現在它們正在生效。
Alex Straton - Analyst
Alex Straton - Analyst
Thanks so much. Good luck.
非常感謝。祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Adrienne Yih, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的 Adrienne Yih。
Adrienne Yih - Analyst
Adrienne Yih - Analyst
John, can you talk about -- you had mentioned the demand creation, you're going to have a little bit of a higher demand creation. I thought last year you had actually anniversary quite a big ride. So just if you can direct us where that's going.
約翰,你能談談嗎——你提到了需求創造,你將會有一個更高的需求創造。我以為去年你實際上度過了一次相當漫長的旅程。所以如果你能告訴我們事情的進展就好了。
And then where do you -- where and when would you see if you can any signs of China stabilization, what are you doing there to mitigate like the inventory, supply demand phenomenon there.
那麼您在哪裡、何時能看到中國經濟穩定的跡象,您正在採取什麼措施來緩解那裡的庫存和供需現象。
And then my final one is just remind us what are the mitigation strategies on the tariff. I know you do quite a bit of sales in that Asia region. So probably half of what you make there can probably be redirected into the APAC region, not to the US, but just remind us, please.
我的最後一點只是提醒我們關稅的緩解策略是什麼。我知道你們在亞洲地區做了相當多的銷售工作。因此,您在那裡賺取的收入可能有一半可以轉移到亞太地區,而不是美國,但請提醒我們。
Thank you.
謝謝。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Okay, I'm pretty sure I'm going to have -- review one of those questions. Let me talk about tariffs first because I assumed this was coming. We've talked for a long time about the strategies we employed. Last time we talked about tariffs, which ironically enough, was about four years ago, and we're going to apply the same tactics and that involves in some situations redirecting origin and manufacturing relationships to avoid -- to optimize for tariffs structures. We're certainly going to go have conversations with our vendors. In some respects, foreign exchange and the strengthening dollar helps with that and then, we'll look at price. I think all of those have to be tools available to us if these rates stay in effect or if the worst case happens and things go forward, more severely. So we're prepared to deal with those. We will deal with those.
好的,我很確定我將回顧其中一個問題。讓我先談談關稅,因為我預料到這會發生。我們就所採用的策略已經討論很久了。諷刺的是,上次我們談論關稅大約是四年前,我們將採用相同的策略,在某些情況下涉及重新定向原產地和製造關係以避免——優化關稅結構。我們肯定會與我們的供應商進行對話。從某些方面來看,外匯和美元走強有助於實現這一點,然後我們再看看價格。我認為,如果這些利率繼續有效,或者最壞的情況發生並且情況變得更加嚴重,所有這些都必須是我們可以利用的工具。所以我們已準備好應對這些問題。我們會處理這些問題。
We have a little bit of time because we -- the inventory we have on hand today is cleared and it won't be subject to those higher rates and as we've seen, it seems like these policies can change relatively quickly, but if they endure, that's the approach we're going to apply.
我們還有一點時間,因為我們今天手頭上的庫存已經清理完畢,不會受到那些更高稅率的影響,而且正如我們所見,這些政策似乎可以相對較快地改變,但如果它們持續下去,這就是我們要採用的方法。
On the marketing, I would say, it's a little bit of a timing within the year and a desire to be a bit more focused early on. What we saw last year, ultimately, quite frankly, was very good success. On the incremental marketing spend, I would say on the year, you probably won't see a material difference overall, but we're a little heavier weighted in the first quarter. We do have a spot coming up this weekend which, unfortunately isn't free but other aspects of our strategy are certainly in -- reinforcing the messaging around our new categories and our comfort technology products.
關於行銷,我想說,這有點像一年內的時間安排,而且希望儘早更加集中精力。坦白說,我們去年看到的最終是巨大的成功。關於增量行銷支出,我想說,從全年來看,你可能不會看到整體的實質差異,但第一季的權重會稍微大一些。我們本週末確實有一個廣告,不幸的是它不是免費的,但我們策略的其他方面肯定是——加強圍繞我們的新類別和舒適技術產品的訊息。
I think your last question is about China. Look, I think the team's working very diligently there to address what they can in the market, but stepping back, we should all recognize this is a macroeconomic event. This is not particular to one brand or one category of brands or one category of shoes or styles and so some of this is going to be beholden to the overall improvement, over the course of time in that market. We've already started the process of looking at how we make sure that our inventory stays fresh that necessarily requires us to move inventory a little bit quicker than we might and we've got plans for that.
我想你的最後一個問題是關於中國的。看,我認為團隊正在非常努力地解決市場上他們可以解決的問題,但退一步來說,我們都應該認識到這是一個宏觀經濟事件。這並不是針對某個品牌、某一類品牌、某一類鞋子或款式而言的,因此,隨著時間的推移,其中一些將取決於該市場的整體改進。我們已經開始研究如何確保庫存保持新鮮,這必然要求我們以比可能的速度更快地移動庫存,我們已經為此制定了計劃。
We did a little bit of that in the fourth quarter. We'll do more in the first quarter with an eye towards getting back in a position where we can make the free flow of new and exciting goods into the market easily and we also have some of the strategies we talked about from a marketing perspective will be in the China market as well to attempt to spur demand spur awareness around some of our comfort technologies that probably still have a lot of room there to go from an awareness perspective and we think ultimately we'll be a very good fit with that market, but just given the last year, it's been a little bit tough to be able to put that messaging forward in the right way.
我們在第四季做了一點這樣的事。我們將在第一季做更多工作,以期重新回到能夠讓新的和令人興奮的商品輕鬆地自由流入市場的位置,並且我們從營銷角度談到的一些策略也將在中國市場實施,以試圖刺激需求,激發人們對我們的一些舒適技術的認識,從認識的角度來看,這些技術可能仍有很大的發展空間,我們認為最終我們將非常適合該市場,但有點困難的發展到這一困難的方式。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
I'd also just like to add on the tariff situation we've been dealing with tariff situations in other parts of the world as we are one of the larger businesses outside the United States and our international business there has been changes both in India, places like Mexico, South America, Europe where we've had a change in midstream and we've always come out better than we went in. So I would tell you that while you never know what the situation's going to end, it is one of our core competencies, and we have moved production and we have taken price where necessary.
我還想補充一下關稅情況,我們一直在處理世界其他地區的關稅情況,因為我們是美國以外較大的企業之一,而且我們的國際業務在印度、墨西哥、南美、歐洲等地都發生了變化,我們在中游也發生了變化,但我們的結果總是比開始時更好。所以我想告訴你,雖然你永遠不知道情況會如何結束,但這是我們的核心競爭力之一,我們已經轉移了生產,並在必要時調整了價格。
We continue to develop product on a regular basis that have more features that can carry that increase in product. So we think this is not one of the worst ones we've seen, and we'll come through it quite well. And as far as demand creation is concerned, we've decided to step it up in the first and second quarter just because of the uneasiness in the world to keep our product in the forefront, especially in China, while it would be an easy place to cut because volumes are coming down, we think it's important to go and reinforce our position there as we develop new products for China, specifically and new advertising and look to move it on and continue to support around the world where we're growing.
我們會定期持續開發具有更多功能的產品,以提升產品的效能。因此我們認為這不是我們所見過的最糟糕的情況之一,我們會很好地度過難關。就需求創造而言,我們決定在第一季度和第二季度加大力度,因為全世界都不太願意讓我們的產品保持領先地位,尤其是在中國。 雖然中國是一個很容易削減的地方,因為銷量正在下降,但我們認為,在我們為中國開發新產品、特別是新廣告的同時,鞏固我們在中國的地位是很重要的,我們希望繼續前進的世界。
I mean we have to consider that we grew 12% without China growing (inaudible) in in the past year and if we would have told anybody that a year ago and I know we've taking a hit throughout the year by being overly Chinese oriented, but our growth projection for this year doesn't include any significant growth, if any, in China. So it just shows you the strength of the brand and how it's moving there. So I think all of that puts us in a very good, comfortable place as we go into this year, even though there is a lot of uncertainty.
我的意思是,我們必須考慮到,去年我們在沒有中國增長(聽不清楚)的情況下也實現了 12% 的增長,如果我們在一年前告訴任何人這一點,我知道我們全年都因過於注重中國而受到打擊,但我們今年的增長預測並不包括中國的任何顯著增長(如果有的話)。所以它只是向你展示了品牌的實力以及它的發展。因此,我認為,儘管存在著許多不確定性,但所有這些都會讓我們在今年處於一個非常好、舒適的位置。
Adrienne Yih - Analyst
Adrienne Yih - Analyst
Thank you very much. Best of luck.
非常感謝。祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
John Kernan, TD Cowen.
約翰·科南(TD Cowen)。
John Kernan - Analyst
John Kernan - Analyst
Just curious on the CapEx spend at $700 million on the high end. Can you get frame where that's going to us and talk about what the normalized run rate is. I think this is closer to 7% of sales. I think a lot of your peers are closer to 2%, so just curious where this is going and how long this is going to remain at this level.
只是好奇高達 7 億美元的資本支出。您能否告訴我們這將帶來什麼並談談標準化的運行率是多少?我認為這更接近銷售額的7%。我認為很多同行的比例都接近 2%,所以我很好奇這個數字將會如何發展以及會維持在這個水平多久。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I thought someone might ask. I would really think about it in two big buckets if you will, one is more normal run rate investments that we make its stores, it's technology, obviously we continue to build out our corporate campus here and we always have some element of distribution center investment ongoing.
是的,我想有人可能會問。如果你願意的話,我真的會從兩個大方面來考慮這個問題,一個是我們對商店的正常營運投資,它是技術,顯然我們會繼續在這裡建造我們的企業園區,而且我們總是會進行一些配送中心的投資。
Every now and again, we have to bite off some of the bigger investments because there are investments you have to make for 10, 20 years, not 1 year, and really there are two of those underway at the moment. One is a continuation of the China distribution center expansion that we've talked about.
時不時地,我們必須進行一些較大的投資,因為有些投資需要 10 年、20 年,而不是 1 年,而目前實際上有兩項投資正在進行中。一是延續我們之前談到的中國配送中心的擴建。
The other we mentioned in New York in the early part of the winter. We need to build additional storage capacity in the US. We have a prime opportunity to do that adjacent to our existing facility which ultimately will drive a much more efficient relationship between bulk storage and processing and unfortunately, we don't get to choose the timing of that -- the timing of that is now. It's now in part because of our needs, but it's also the ability to take advantage of that location is unique. And so that's the big swing factor in the number. I think if you strip that out because it is -- it's probably a once in a 10-year investment at least you'd see the run rate is much more normalized.
另一個我們在初冬時節在紐約提到。我們需要在美國建造額外的儲存容量。我們有絕佳的機會在現有設施附近進行此項工作,這最終將推動散裝存儲和加工之間更加高效的關係,不幸的是,我們無法選擇時機——時機就是現在。現在部分是因為我們的需要,但也是利用該獨特地理位置的能力。這就是數字的巨大波動因素。我認為,如果你把它去掉,因為它可能是十年一次的投資,至少你會看到運行率更正常。
The reason for the width in the range though is a little bit of timing considerations for that project and the project in China. Those are going to be big determinants of how far we get against the plan this year. So we gave a bit of a wider range to illustrate, in particular those projects carry a lot of weight from a timing perspective. But if you set those aside, I think you'd see a much more normalized level because the material portion of the above trend spend is associated with China and the US.
不過,範圍如此廣泛的原因是對該專案和中國專案的時間表有一點考慮。這些將成為決定我們今年能實現多大計畫的重要因素。因此,我們給出了更廣泛的範圍來說明,特別是從時間角度來看那些項目非常重要。但如果你把這些放在一邊,我認為你會看到一個更正常化的水平,因為上述趨勢支出的實質部分與中國和美國有關。
John Kernan - Analyst
John Kernan - Analyst
Understood.
明白了。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Yeah (multiple speakers) I'd like to also clarify some of the US spend (multiple speakers). Yeah, we have now two buildings we operate offsite that are quite expensive and cause us to move a lot of product around because of the growth we experienced after the pandemic and needed it and couldn't get the space close enough. So you can imagine the inefficiencies in this time. The reason that it's so expensive in the US portion is this will become part of our joint venture. So own half of it, so we pick up the whole cost and obviously we have a joint venture partner but we will own it. It will be part of that facility. We will get rid of two outside buildings, so we will have our own.
是的(多位發言者),我還想澄清一下美國的一些支出(多位發言者)。是的,我們現在有兩棟在場外運作的建築,它們的成本相當高,而且由於疫情之後我們的業務增長,我們需要移動很多產品,但又無法獲得足夠近的空間。所以你可以想像此時的效率有多低。美國部分價格如此昂貴的原因是這將成為我們合資企業的一部分。所以我們擁有一半,所以我們承擔全部成本,顯然我們有一個合資夥伴,但我們將擁有它。它將成為該設施的一部分。我們將拆除兩棟外面的建築,這樣我們就可以擁有自己的建築。
This building will be phenomenal and will not require us to truck anything around to process and we'll conclude our move into direct-to-consumer and e-com in such a big way as to be able to process and hold it all in one facility. So the fact that we own it or own half of it makes it a little more expensive but will make it that much more efficient as we go forward.
這座建築將是非凡的,不需要我們用卡車運送任何東西來處理,我們將大規模地完成向直接面向消費者和電子商務的轉變,以便能夠在一個設施內處理和保存所有產品。因此,我們擁有它或擁有一半的事實會使它稍微昂貴一些,但隨著我們前進,它將變得更有效率。
I will point out in Europe, we ended up a little bit behind the curve simply because we grew so significantly that John said 25% in the last reporting time and we've converted there also to a significant piece of direct-to-consumer ecom, so we're processing significantly more. And we've had a lot of pressure put on that facility simply because we're closing the Suez Canal and everything taking three more weeks and us having to process more efficiently and get product in earlier.
我要指出的是,在歐洲,我們最終有點落後,只是因為我們的增長如此之快,約翰說上次報告時增長了 25%,並且我們在那裡也轉化為了相當大的直接面向消費者的電子商務,因此我們的處理能力顯著增強。由於蘇伊士運河即將關閉,所有工作又需要耗時三週,因此該工廠承受著巨大的壓力,我們必須更有效率地處理,儘早將產品運入。
So we're trying to catch up there, which means we have to build a new facility that we're building and then enhance our existing facility with things that we'll be able to move automation wise to the new facility to process all this additional direct-to-consumer ecom and the wholesale business that I personally think will continue on this exaggerated growth piece for quite some time because we're doing quite well there. So it's a confluence of those two things that's a big investment that will come back to us, I believe, rather quickly and more efficiently in the next year or two.
因此,我們正試圖迎頭趕上,這意味著我們必須建造一個新設施,然後增強我們現有的設施,我們將能夠將自動化轉移到新設施,以處理所有這些額外的直接面向消費者的電子商務和批發業務,我個人認為這個誇張的增長部分還會持續相當長一段時間,因為我們在那裡做得很好。所以,這兩件事的結合是一筆巨大的投資,我相信,在未來一兩年內,我們會更快、更有效地獲得回報。
John Kernan - Analyst
John Kernan - Analyst
All right, that's helpful. One follow-up for you, maybe not related to the near term. We're essentially at the $10 billion in total revenue. The 10% EBIT margin you generate in '24, what's -- where do you see the long-term opportunities on the margin profile of the business? Is it in gross margin? Is it in selling and G&A leverage? How should we think about the $10 billion in top line and now the incremental margin opportunity long term?
好的,這很有幫助。對您來說有一個後續問題,可能與近期無關。我們的總收入基本上達到了 100 億美元。您在 24 年產生的 10% 息稅前利潤率是什麼——您認為業務利潤率狀況的長期機會在哪裡?是毛利率嗎?是在銷售和一般及行政開支方面有槓桿作用嗎?我們該如何看待 100 億美元的營業收入以及現在的長期增量利潤機會?
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Well, I'll let John take most of that, but I will tell you a lot will depend on how fast we grow. If you settle down with all the investments we've made, it would likely grow at a significantly faster rate. We don't think the growth curve is done yet, so we may have to invest and go, especially on a worldwide basis, but that's just my opinion.
好吧,我會讓約翰承擔大部分責任,但我會告訴你,很多事情取決於我們的成長速度。如果您對我們所做的所有投資感到滿意,那麼它可能會以更快的速度成長。我們認為成長曲線尚未結束,因此我們可能必須進行投資並繼續前進,特別是在全球範圍內,但這只是我的觀點。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I would also say that we're not going to count our $10 billion before they hatch, so we're going to refrain from clearing -- declaring success until we get there, but certainly it's in sight. And ultimately, I would echo David's comment. I think it can come from a lot of different elements on the P&L, but the key question is how much growth is ahead of the business? We say this every year. We're constantly investing to grow the business. We're opening new stores. Each store as it opens represents a significant point of near-term deleverage before it gets up to the point where it leverages and it contributes to the business as a whole, and that's just one illustration of the investments we make.
是的,我還想說,在它們孵化之前我們不打算計算我們的 100 億美元,所以我們將避免清算——在我們到達那裡之前宣布成功,但肯定它是在望的。最後,我贊同戴維的評論。我認為這可能來自損益表上的許多不同因素,但關鍵問題是未來業務的成長幅度有多大?我們每年都這麼說。我們不斷投資以發展業務。我們正在開新店。每家商店的開幕都代表著短期去槓桿化的一個重要點,之後才會達到槓桿化程度,並為整個業務做出貢獻,這只是我們所做投資的一個例證。
When our growth trajectory subsides, we'll be able to harvest a lot of that investment because there certainly won't be the need for as much but that being said, we're still looking to push the operating margin where we can against the backdrop of the business where we're operating we'll look to sustain for 2025 what we achieved in '24 and look for opportunities to grow up from there while currently investing to grow the business because as you probably guessed, we're not planning to stop at $10 billion. We think this business has the opportunity to continue to grow certainly above trend in the market. And with our product, with our technologies, we think that's absolutely worth investing in.
當我們的成長軌跡減慢時,我們將能夠收穫大量的投資,因為肯定不會有那麼多的需求,但話雖如此,我們仍然希望在我們運營的業務背景下盡可能地提高營業利潤率,我們將努力在 2025 年維持我們在 24 年取得的成就,並尋找從那裡成長的機會,同時在 100 億美元我們認為這項業務有機會持續成長,且成長速度肯定高於市場趨勢。我們認為,憑藉我們的產品和技術,絕對值得投資。
John Kernan - Analyst
John Kernan - Analyst
Got it. Fly, eagles fly this weekend, I think next year you're going to need a Nick Sirianni collaboration, but we'll see.
知道了。飛翔,老鷹本週末飛翔,我想明年你將需要與 Nick Sirianni 合作,但我們拭目以待。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
(laughter)
(笑聲)
Well, we'll let you tell that to coach Reid.
好吧,我們讓你告訴里德教練。
Operator
Operator
Rick Patel, Raymond James.
瑞克·帕特爾、雷蒙·詹姆斯。
Rick Patel - Analyst
Rick Patel - Analyst
Can you talk about the shape of growth this year? Guidance seems to apply a modest acceleration as you move beyond Q1. Curious what you attribute that to and if there's anything we should be keeping in mind from a modeling perspective in terms of lumpiness that may be caused by the wholesale channel.
您能談談今年的成長狀況嗎?當你超越 Q1 時,指導似乎會應用適度的加速。好奇您將其歸因於什麼,以及從建模角度來看,我們是否應該記住批發管道可能造成的不均勻性。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
I think probably the biggest single factor there is going to be China. If you look at China last year, first quarter was the last quarter of meaningful growth, and obviously the business since that point in time has deteriorated and so we're simply lapping that last quarter in China against a bit of a difficult comparison. We're also, as David mentioned, timing can always shift on some of the early spring shipment, so we're watching that carefully, but I think China is probably the number one factor in there.
我認為可能最大的單一因素是中國。如果你看看去年中國的情況,你會發現第一季是最後一個實現有意義增長的季度,但顯然自那時起業務就開始惡化,因此我們只是將中國上一季度的情況與一個有點困難的比較進行對比。正如大衛所提到的那樣,早春發貨的時間總是會發生變化,因此我們正在密切關注,但我認為中國可能是其中最重要的因素。
Rick Patel - Analyst
Rick Patel - Analyst
Okay. And then can you also talk about your foray into basketball cleats and running. You see 2025 is the year where you hit the accelerator in terms of going after these opportunities. And if so, how do we think about the go-to-market strategy by channel?
好的。然後你能談談你在籃球鞋和跑步方面的嘗試嗎?您會發現,2025 年是您加速追逐這些機會的一年。如果是的話,我們該如何考慮透過通路制定市場進入策略呢?
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Well, we're trying to be receptive from the marketplace. What we're doing now is seeding around the world. We're getting our players in. We're introducing the product. We'll go as fast as necessary and the market will allow us to. We very rarely try to push against the marketplace. As we get more acceptance and our athletes get more known and we continue to move out as we get more critical mass, we will move through all different kinds of expansion around the world, so it depends how fast it's received, how well it does. Right now, it seems to be doing very well. It's doing very well outside the United States as far as our football soccer is doing, and we're getting a lot more requests about basketball and talking to basketball players on a professional level. So we're just at the beginning stage and what you see here is not a major push in 2025, although we do think it might have some upside as we go through the year.
嗯,我們正努力接受市場的改變。我們現在所做的是在世界各地播種。我們正在讓球員入場。我們正在介紹該產品。我們將盡可能快速地行動,市場也會允許我們這麼做。我們很少嘗試推動市場變革。隨著我們得到越來越多的認可,我們的運動員越來越出名,並且隨著我們不斷達到臨界規模,我們將在世界各地進行各種擴張,所以這取決於我們接受的速度和效果。目前看來,它運行得非常好。就我們的足球而言,它在美國以外的發展也非常好,而且我們收到了更多關於籃球的請求,並在專業層面上與籃球運動員進行交流。因此,我們才剛開始階段,您現在看到的並不是 2025 年的重大推動,儘管我們確實認為,隨著時間的推移,它可能會帶來一些好處。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
I would also add, Rick, that I think you'll see some other sports come into play -- looking at some of the sports we've operated in traditionally that we've reimagined in a way that I think will match more tightly with the recent performance sports we've launched, so I guess this is to say we're not done yet. We'll also continue to invest in awareness. I mean, one of the things we started obviously in '24 was to build awareness around the newer categories. We'll continue to do that in a measured way so that we can, as David mentioned, take advantage of what the market starts to yield us.
里克,我還要補充一點,我認為你會看到一些其他運動項目發揮作用——看看我們傳統上運營的一些運動項目,我們重新構想了這些運動項目,我認為這些運動項目將與我們最近推出的表現性運動項目更加緊密地匹配,所以我想這就是說我們還沒有完成。我們也將繼續投資於提高認識。我的意思是,我們在 24 年開始做的事情之一顯然是提高人們對新類別的認識。我們將繼續有節制地採取這項措施,以便我們能夠像戴維提到的那樣,利用市場開始為我們帶來的優勢。
Rick Patel - Analyst
Rick Patel - Analyst
Look forward to seeing the innovation.
期待看到創新。
Thanks guys.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Jesalyn Wong, Evercore.
Jesalyn Wong,Evercore。
Jesalyn Wong - Analyst
Jesalyn Wong - Analyst
Maybe just following up on EMEA's growth paired up really well during the quarter. Were there specific categories that did well? And also following on Rick's question, the performance category, how big is it as a percentage of sales right now? I think over the medium term as you grow this category what -- how big of a contribution do you expect this to be?
也許只是跟進本季 EMEA 地區的成長情況就很好了。有哪些具體類別表現良好?另外回答 Rick 的問題,性能類別目前佔銷售額的百分比是多少?我認為從中期來看,隨著這一類別的成長,您預計這將帶來多大的貢獻?
Thanks.
謝謝。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, on the latter, we don't give what we'll call category or division level details. I would say today performance is not an overweight percentage of our business. It does somewhat depend upon what you call performance in the market, relative to what others measured as what I would say is most exciting about the opportunities as we build it out is not only are we tapping into new categories with tremendous addressable market characteristics. We're re-energizing existing categories that we're in that also have sizable addressable markets.
是的,對於後者,我們沒有提供所謂的類別或部門層級的詳細資訊。我想說今天的業績不是我們業務中過重的一部分。它確實在某種程度上取決於你所說的市場表現,相對於其他人所衡量的標準,我想說,我們在構建它時最令人興奮的機會不僅僅是我們正在挖掘具有巨大可尋址市場特徵的新類別。我們正在重新激發現有的、擁有可觀潛在市場的品類活力。
And then the ancillary benefit of that is they also provide, a halo effect to the rest of the brand. They build awareness. They tap into new consumers who can then become more aware of what we offer broadly, so I would say that's the most -- that's one of the most attractive long-term opportunities we have.
這樣做的附帶好處是,它們還能為品牌的其他部分帶來光環效應。他們增強了意識。他們挖掘出新的消費者,這些新消費者隨後可以更廣泛地了解我們提供的產品,所以我認為這是我們最具吸引力的長期機會之一。
EMEA performed fantastic on the back of quite frankly performing fantastic through most of the year. It really was across the board. I think, their embrace of the Skechers' Hand Free Slip-in technology as well as other product and comfort focused technologies has been enormous. We've seen it in wholesale, we've seen it in retail. That market just has continued to perform exceptionally well, and the brand and the technologies, comfort technologies continue to resonate the consumer level.
坦白說,EMEA 地區在今年大部分時間的表現都非常出色。這確實是全面的。我認為,他們對 Skechers 的免持滑入技術以及其他以產品和舒適度為中心的技術的接受度非常高。我們在批發市場看到過這種情況,在零售市場也看到過這種情況。該市場一直表現優異,品牌、技術、舒適技術持續引起消費者的共鳴。
Jesalyn Wong - Analyst
Jesalyn Wong - Analyst
Thank you. Maybe just one follow-up on China. I would imagine it's embedded to progressively improve throughout the year. Is there any point or are we expecting second half to have positive growth in China, like how are we thinking on China for this year for cadence?
謝謝。或許只是對中國的一次後續關注。我可以想像它將在全年內不斷進步。我們是否預期下半年中國市場將出現正成長,我們對今年中國市場的節奏有何看法?
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah it's somewhat linked to Rick's question.
是的,這和 Rick 的問題有一定關聯。
If you go back to last year, Q1 was more robust than any of the other quarters, and so we face a more difficult comparison in the first quarter than we do the balance of the year. As a result, what we believe for the year is that we'll see improvement after the first quarter, not to the point where we expect there to be a tremendous turnaround in the year, but the year should get better as time goes on and that just means, the first quarter impact is the most acute.
如果回顧去年,第一季的表現比其他任何季度都要強勁,因此,我們在第一季面臨的比較比全年其他季度更為困難。因此,我們相信,今年的情況將在第一季之後得到改善,雖然不會達到我們預期的全年大幅好轉的程度,但隨著時間的推移,情況會越來越好,而這也意味著,第一季的影響是最嚴重的。
Operator
Operator
Krisztina Katai, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的 Krisztina Katai。
Krisztina Katai - Analyst
Krisztina Katai - Analyst
I just wanted to ask on inventory and then the inventory composition overall. You said you made some progress in China quarter over quarter, but just how do you see the overall inventory levels which are up 26% ending the year relative to your 13% sales growth, and then can you elaborate on your comments to move inventory a little bit quicker? We just love to get some color there.
我只是想問一下庫存狀況以及整體庫存組成情況。您說您在中國市場每季都取得了一些進展,但您如何看待整體庫存水準?我們只是喜歡在那裡看到一些色彩。
Thank you.
謝謝。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean, the inventory is incredibly healthy. I mean, the biggest contributor to increased inventory year on year is merchandise and transit. Obviously, the biggest culprit there is Europe, where we're seeing elongated transit times. If you compare that to where we were last year, we're still dealing with elevated transit times and that just requires more inventory, so that gives you a flavor of the nature of the inventory is not older inventory sitting around. It's stuff that's on the water that's bound for markets, and we feel really good about that.
是的,我的意思是庫存非常健康。我的意思是,庫存逐年增加的最大因素是商品和運輸。顯然,最大的罪魁禍首是歐洲,那裡的運輸時間延長了。如果與去年的情況相比,我們仍然面臨更長的運輸時間,而這需要更多的庫存,因此您可以感受到庫存的性質,而不是閒置的舊庫存。這些貨物在水上運輸,然後運往市場,我們對此感到非常高興。
The comment relative to China was, we -- at the end of last quarter we said we were going to observe what happened on Singles' Day, use that as an indicator of how quickly we need to act to move the inventory. Singles' Day was at the end of the day probably a bit more disappointing than we had anticipated. As a result, we took some actions to move units. We'll do that again in the first and second quarter, but the objective there is to get to make room for the new product, to make room for our comfort technologies, to get those to the consumer. Ultimately, we think that's the best and most important thing for us to do for the business and for the consumer, so we'll take action to expedite some of the inventory out of the channel to make room for new and that's, again to David's comment earlier about tariffs that's something we do all the time. We're managing inventory actively all the time. We were pleased with the progress we made in the fourth quarter, but there's more and we'll get after it.
關於中國的評論是,我們在上個季度末表示,我們將觀察「光棍節」發生的情況,並以此作為我們需要多快採取行動來消化庫存的指標。光棍節最終可能比我們預期的更令人失望。因此,我們採取了一些行動來調動單位。我們將在第一季和第二季再次這樣做,但我們的目標是為新產品騰出空間,為我們的舒適技術騰出空間,並將它們推向消費者。最終,我們認為這是我們為企業和消費者所能做的最好和最重要的事情,因此我們將採取行動,加快部分庫存從管道中出來,為新產品騰出空間,這就是大衛之前關於關稅的評論,這是我們一直在做的事情。我們一直在積極管理庫存。我們對第四季度取得的進展感到滿意,但還有更多,我們將繼續努力。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Yeah, and it should be noted that this is a very specific decision on our part to try to get as much into Europe as early as we could for our first quarter. First quarter is the largest quarter for us in EMEA and because of the closing of the Suez Canal, it's an additional four weeks in transit. So rather than trying to play close to the [west], we try to move up everything to get all seven weeks of what used to be three weeks in transit in at the early part of the quarter.
是的,需要注意的是,這是我們做出的非常具體的決定,目的是嘗試在第一季儘早將盡可能多的產品打入歐洲市場。第一季是我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區業務最繁忙的季度,由於蘇伊士運河關閉,運輸時間增加了四週。因此,我們並不是試圖靠近[西部],而是試圖提前做好一切準備,將原本需要三週的運輸時間在本季度初全部完成。
So it was either received or on its way in or will be received in the early part of the quarter, which is the big build up. So it is all new. Maybe in times past we would receive it a little later in the year closer to the end of the year and some after the New Year and some would have gone on the water after Chinese New Year, which also was a little early this year, so everything had to be done. So all that together just means some inventory that we think is going to power our growth and is not excess at all for EMEA.
因此,它要么已經收到,要么正在收到,要么將在本季度初收到,這是一個巨大的積累。所以這一切都是新的。也許在過去,我們會在年底前晚些時候收到它,有些是在新年之後,有些會在農曆新年後下水,而今年也有點早,所以一切都必須完成。所以,所有這些加在一起意味著,我們認為這些庫存將推動我們的成長,而對 EMEA 來說,這些庫存根本不是過剩的。
Krisztina Katai - Analyst
Krisztina Katai - Analyst
Great. Thank you for all that color, best of luck.
偉大的。感謝你帶來的所有色彩,祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Chris Nardone, Bank of America.
美國銀行的克里斯‧納多內 (Chris Nardone)。
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
John, can you just elaborate a little bit more on the drivers of the 31% US wholesale growth during the quarter? And are you concerned at all about footwear inventory levels within the US wholesale channel? How are you expecting to navigate the potential pricing environment if the tariff situation worsens for EMEA?
約翰,您能否進一步詳細說明本季美國批發成長 31% 的驅動因素?您是否擔心美國批發通路的鞋類庫存水準?如果歐洲、中東和非洲地區的關稅情況惡化,您打算如何應對潛在的定價環境?
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Domestic wholesale continued to perform on the back of quite frankly everything that had driven it up to this point in time in the year, Chris. got a handful of accounts that are doing extraordinarily well. We certainly got some lift from accounts in the prior year I guess two years prior now who hadn't really embraced our comfort technology. So what we saw is same source of growth on the domestic wholesale side.
克里斯,坦白說,國內批發業務繼續表現良好,這是由於今年以來所有推動其發展到這一階段的因素所致。獲得了一些表現異常出色的帳戶。我們確實從前一年,我想兩年前的客戶那裡獲得了一些提升,他們還沒有真正接受我們的舒適技術。因此,我們看到國內批發方面的成長來源是相同的。
And we actually even recently seen some extraordinary wholesale events from a marketing perspective that we think are very conducive to continuing to drive that channel for the brand -- some brand takeovers and a couple partners and that's performed really, really well.
事實上,我們最近從行銷角度看到了一些非凡的批發活動,我們認為這些活動非常有利於繼續推動該品牌的管道發展——一些品牌收購和幾個合作夥伴的表現非常非常好。
In terms of overall inventory in the wholesale channel, no concerns there. We're watching it carefully. We're continuing to see really strong sell throughs, particularly with those accounts that are again embracing the comfort technologies, like I said, done with the couple brand takeovers recently that performed really well, so great sell through there, so nothing that gives us pause on the domestic inventory landscape that continues to do really well.
就批發通路的整體庫存而言,沒有什麼好擔心的。我們正在仔細觀察。我們繼續看到非常強勁的銷售業績,特別是那些再次擁抱舒適技術的帳戶,就像我說的,最近完成了幾個表現非常好的品牌收購,所以銷售業績非常好,所以沒有什麼能讓我們暫停國內庫存格局,繼續表現很好。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Yeah, I think from a shipping perspective, we see no slowdown in people customers wanting to come on a wholesale level to pick up some way till later in January as the fiscal year is close, but through the end of January to early February, we haven't had any indication from a shipping perspective that anybody's clogged or looking to slow down any.
是的,我認為從運輸的角度來看,我們看到,隨著財政年度的臨近,在 1 月底之前,人們希望在批發層面上進行某種程度的採購,但這種趨勢並沒有放緩,但是從 1 月底到 2 月初,從運輸的角度來看,我們還沒有發現任何跡象表明有人出現擁堵或希望放慢速度。
Operator
Operator
Tom Nikic, Needham.
湯姆·尼基奇,尼德姆。
Tom Nikic - Analyst
Tom Nikic - Analyst
John, I believe you said, the minority interest line would be down mid-teens this year. Is that predominantly due to the expectation that says are down in China or is there anything else that's driving that?
約翰,我相信你說過,少數股東權益線今年將下降 15% 左右。這主要是因為對中國產量預期下降,還是有其他因素造成的?
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Well, we're not going to guide by line item by country, but I will say, that is the most significant factor influencing the trend in minority interest. It's not a pure number or pure reflection of what's going on in China because there are other markets with minority interest impacting the business but that's the main driver to the downside, yes.
好吧,我們不會逐一指導每個國家,但我會說,這是影響少數股權趨勢的最重要因素。這不是一個純粹的數字,也不能純粹反映中國的情況,因為其他市場的少數股東權益也會影響到業務,但這是導致業務下滑的主要因素,是的。
Tom Nikic - Analyst
Tom Nikic - Analyst
Understood. Okay, and then the inventory growth, optically it's high, and I know some of that's due to in transit, excluding the increase in transit inventory, I mean, is it safe to say, you feel that your inventories are in appropriate shape relative to the growth that you're expecting for '25.
明白了。好的,然後庫存增長,從視覺上看是很高的,我知道其中一些是由於運輸過程中的庫存增加,不包括運輸庫存的增加,我的意思是,可以肯定地說,您覺得您的庫存相對於您預期的'25 年增長處於適當的狀態嗎?
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, absolutely. On hand levels were -- I think they were up 12%, so vast majority of the growth came out of, as we said, the in-transits. And I was just looking, China, as we said, improved -- it improved on hands, pretty nicely so. Yeah, I mean, again, we make mention of the in-transit inventory, not because we enjoy talking about in-transit inventory, but it has been for a couple of quarters now the most significant factor influencing inventory increases. And again, the Suez Canal crisis is a heavy, heavy contributor there because a lot of the in-transit probably, I'd say 60% to 70% of the in-transit increase we saw year on year was precisely in Europe, so.
是的,絕對是如此。現有水準 - 我認為它們上漲了 12%,所以絕大多數增長來自於,正如我們所說的,在途貨物。我只是在看,正如我們所說,中國有所進步——它確實進步了,相當不錯。是的,我的意思是,我們再次提到在途庫存,並不是因為我們喜歡談論在途庫存,而是因為它已經成為幾個季度以來影響庫存增加的最重要因素。蘇伊士運河危機是造成這一現象的一個重要因素,因為大量的過境貨物,我想說,我們看到的同比過境貨物增長的 60% 到 70% 恰恰是在歐洲。
It's a reflection of the dynamics of the shipping market at the moment and I guess in a way geopolitical events but again to David's point, it's good inventory, it's healthy inventory, it's order backed inventory so we'll absorb that and get it into our system and process it out as quickly as we can.
它反映了當前航運市場的動態,我想在某種程度上也反映了地緣政治事件,但正如大衛所說,這是良好的庫存,健康的庫存,有訂單支持的庫存,因此我們將吸收這些庫存,並將其納入我們的系統並儘快處理掉。
Tom Nikic - Analyst
Tom Nikic - Analyst
Understood.
明白了。
Thanks very much and best of luck this year.
非常感謝並祝今年好運。
Operator
Operator
Anna Andreeva, Piper Sandler.
安娜·安德烈耶娃,派珀·桑德勒。
Anna Andreeva - Analyst
Anna Andreeva - Analyst
We had a question on comfort technologies. You've seen some nice traction there for some time. How do you view the pipeline of innovation either for 1Q or as we go through the year? And are there any additional categories that technologies could be applied to.
我們對舒適技術有疑問。一段時間以來,您已經看到了那裡的一些良好發展勢頭。您如何看待第一季或全年的創新管道?還有哪些技術可以應用在其他類別?
And just as a follow-up, ASP has been under slight pressure I think for both channels despite you guys rolling out the new technologies in '24. So should we expect the price to reverse in '25 or what's been driving some of that decline?
順便問一下,儘管你們在24年推出了新技術,但我認為兩個頻道的 ASP 仍然承受著輕微的壓力。那麼,我們是否應該預期價格會在 25 年逆轉,或者是什麼導致了價格的下跌?
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Sure, let me touch on the price dynamics. I would separate the US and international price dynamics which I know you guys can't see as well, but obviously FX plays a role on the international side. In the US, what we're seeing is as we spread the comfort technologies across more categories that includes a broader range and in that what you're seeing is well individuals are taking advantage of the technology they're doing so across a broader range of price points than existed previously.
當然,讓我來談談價格動態。我會將美國和國際價格動態分開,我知道你們看不到,但顯然外匯在國際方面發揮作用。在美國,我們看到的是,隨著舒適技術推廣到更多的類別,範圍越來越廣,人們開始利用這項技術,而且價格範圍比以前更加廣泛。
So you did see a little bit of ASP decline as a result of that, also as we've mentioned throughout the year as a technology as a style becomes more familiar with the consumer, the anticipation is that it will be included in certain promotional events and that was the case. Over the course of the year, we started to include some of the technologies and more promotional events because you walk a fine line between protecting the price and irritating consumers who are visiting and appreciating promotions.
因此,您確實看到了 ASP 的一點下降,也正如我們全年提到的那樣,隨著一項技術作為一種風格越來越為消費者所熟悉,人們預計它將被納入某些促銷活動中,事實也是如此。在這一年中,我們開始採用一些技術和進行更多的促銷活動,因為你需要在保護價格和激怒訪問和欣賞促銷活動的消費者之間走一條微妙的界線。
I would say going into next year, I don't think at this juncture we're going to see as much price erosion. I think you probably see stability and maybe even a little bit of a price improvement for a variety of reasons.
我想說,進入明年,我認為我們不會看到如此大的價格下滑。我認為,由於各種原因,您可能會看到價格穩定,甚至可能看到價格略有改善。
On the comfort technologies, I would think about them very much as features that can be embedded across a wide array of products. And I think that's what makes them so special. It's not -- they're not particular to a style or a category. They can be used broadly. There's a tremendous amount of continuing (inaudible) with our Skechers' Hand Free Slip-in technology, particularly around the more integrated versions of that which I think we showed to some of you guys in early winter.
關於舒適技術,我認為它們是一種可以嵌入各種產品中的功能。我認為這正是他們的特別之處。並非如此——它們並不是特定於某種風格或類別。它們可以被廣泛使用。我們的 Skechers 免持滑入技術有大量的持續發展(聽不清楚),特別是圍繞該技術的更整合的版本,我想我們在初冬向你們中的一些人展示過它。
But also the other technologies continue to perform really well. Our Arch Fit technology continues to drive growth. We have some newer technologies coming out, new products. They're still early, but they're going to be hitting the market, and they're all focused on the same thing, driving and delivering comfort to our consumers.
但其他技術也繼續表現良好。我們的 Arch Fit 技術持續推動成長。我們推出了一些新技術和新產品。雖然它們還處於起步階段,但它們即將進入市場,而且它們都專注於同一件事:為我們的消費者提供舒適體驗。
I would add the last thing is as we've grown new categories, performance categories that we haven't traditionally operated in, we've taken elements of those features and put them into that product and that's -- we're using the line comfort that performs but that's because we're putting some of our comfort features into our performance footwear and while it's not always the primary focus that continues to reinforce at the consumer level, our particular offering around comfort and how unique that is and so we think it has continuing impact across the business, across the globe, and opportunities for us to chase but what we've already delivered to the market and some new features as well.
我想補充的最後一點是,隨著我們新類別的開發,我們已經開發出傳統上從未涉足過的性能類別,我們已經提取了這些功能的元素並將它們放入產品中,這就是 - 我們正在使用性能舒適的產品線,但這是因為我們將一些舒適功能放入了我們的性能鞋中,雖然這並不總是繼續在消費者強化的主要關注點,但我們對全球了一些新功能。
Anna Andreeva - Analyst
Anna Andreeva - Analyst
That's super helpful. I appreciate it.
這非常有幫助。我很感激。
May I ask just one follow-up on gross margins? I believe you had expected freight to be a headwind in 4Q. Did you see that as a headwind and should we expect any freight instability as we go through the year or in 1Q? Thanks so much.
我可以問一個關於毛利率的問題嗎?我相信您已經預料到第四季貨運業將會遭遇阻力。您是否將此視為一種阻力?非常感謝。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean there's a little bit -- there was a little bit in Q4. It wasn't material enough for us to really call out. There will be a little bit more in Qs 1 and 2. The impact always depends upon the size and scale of the business. We think that then gets us past what was the summer rate pressures coming from the initial elements of the Suez Canal crisis. So there's a little bit in there. We don't expect it to be a driving factor but it's certainly something we're watching carefully.
是的,我的意思是有一點——第四季有一點。這對我們來說還不夠重要,沒有必要大聲疾呼。在問題 1 和問題 2 中還會有更多內容。影響總是取決於業務的規模和範圍。我們認為,這將使我們擺脫蘇伊士運河危機初期在夏季帶來的運費壓力。所以那裡有一點點。我們不希望它成為一個驅動因素,但我們肯定會密切關注它。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Yeah, it will also depend on alternate sourcing and where stuff has to come from as we move things around in the coming year. Also, there has been somewhat of a slowdown since a lot of people before Chinese New Year have brought a significant amount even into the United States in anticipation of the new regime and its tariffs. So unless business holds up significantly, you would anticipate that there'll be some relief on the ships as they come through.
是的,這也取決於替代來源,以及來年我們轉移物品時物品的來源。此外,由於許多人在農曆新年前就已經將大量資金帶入美國,以應對新政和新關稅,因此交易量有所放緩。因此,除非業務大幅成長,否則您可以預期船隻在通航時會得到一些緩解。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
You certainly have seen spot rates return to a more normalized level that, perfectly where we'd like them to be but they've abated significantly since that summer pressure.
您肯定已經看到現貨價格回歸到更正常的水平,完全達到了我們所希望的水平,但自那個夏季的壓力以來,現貨價格已顯著減輕。
Anna Andreeva - Analyst
Anna Andreeva - Analyst
All right. Thank you so much. Best of luck.
好的。太感謝了。祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Sam Poser, William Trading.
薩姆·波瑟(Sam Poser),威廉貿易公司。
Sam Poser - Analyst
Sam Poser - Analyst
I have a couple here. One, what -- can you give us some idea because of this -- the FX impacts and all of that so we can back into it? Can you help us with what you think -- what you're planning the EBIT margin to be in the first quarter or a range of EBIT margin? And that'll help us a lot because we have this big chunk as we did in the previous quarter of FX. So can you help us or help us with the other income line and then we can back into it that way.
我這裡有一對。首先,您能否給我們一些關於 FX 的影響以及所有這些,以便我們可以回顧一下?您能否告訴我們您的想法-您計劃第一季的息稅前利潤率是多少或息稅前利潤率的範圍是多少?這對我們有很大幫助,因為我們在外匯方面擁有很大的份額,就像上一季一樣。那麼,您能否幫助我們,或幫助我們獲得其他收入來源,然後我們可以透過這種方式回到正軌。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we're not -- we don't normally project other income impacts. That's why they're so painful when they arrive like they did in the fourth quarter. That's why we don't mind them as much when they go the other direction. But to know those we'd have to have the impact.
是的,我們通常不會預測其他收入影響。這就是為什麼他們到達時會如此痛苦,就像在第四節一樣。這就是為什麼當他們朝另一個方向走時我們不太介意。但要了解這些,我們必須產生影響力。
The FX impact we've cited really comes from the loss of top-line value and then the flow through effect of that. I would say, as we've looked at it this year if you project it out, it would be about a 20 -- $0.15 to $0.20 impact. It's a little bit more acute in the first half of the year than in the back half, but, not terribly so, and then the other impact is the tax rate that we talked about, which could be as sizable as $0.25, $0.30 depending upon where you establish the normal baseline rate.
我們提到的外匯影響實際上來自於營業額的損失以及由此產生的連鎖反應。我想說,正如我們今年所研究的那樣,如果你進行預測,它的影響將約為 20——0.15 美元到 0.20 美元。上半年的影響比下半年稍微嚴重一些,但也不是特別嚴重,另一個影響就是我們談到的稅率,這個稅率可能會高達 0.25 美元或 0.30 美元,具體取決於你在哪裡確定正常的基準稅率。
I think if you actually look at those relative to where the street is and you make adjustments for that, you'll see that what we're guiding to is really a fairly comparable number, not perfectly so, but fairly comparable to the expectations we've talked about historically and what I think you all were baking in. Admittedly, those are big changes, but neither of which we have the ability to unilaterally control.
我認為,如果你實際上看一下這些與街道位置相關的數據並進行調整,你會發現我們所指導的實際上是一個相當可比的數字,雖然並非完全如此,但與我們過去談論的預期以及我認為你們都在考慮的預期相當。無可否認,這些都是巨大的變化,但我們都沒有能力單方面控制這些變化。
Sam Poser - Analyst
Sam Poser - Analyst
I understand it for the full year. What I'm probably just trying to -- Q1 seems to have the most acute movement in it. And so the question is, so I'm just asking for Q1. I'm not asking for the full year explanation. I'm just trying to get an idea of where you're thinking this operating margin falls, and we come back into the rest of it that way because you've given us piecing around it but we don't want to have a situation where you make or miss the number because -- but you hit the gross, we just want to have an idea of where you're thinking of a range of EBIT, and then we can sort out the rest of it -- in the first quarter. I'm not -- I don't want the rest of the year we can back into because they're less acute.
我了解了一整年。我可能只是想——Q1 似乎其中有最劇烈的變化。問題是,我只是問 Q1。我並不是要求全年的解釋。我只是想知道您認為這個營業利潤率會下降到什麼程度,然後我們再以那種方式回到其餘部分,因為您已經為我們提供了大概的信息,但我們不希望出現這樣一種情況,即您達到或錯過了這個數字,因為——但是您達到了毛利,我們只是想知道您認為的息稅前利潤範圍,然後我們可以在第一季度理清其餘部分。我不希望我們在今年剩餘時間陷入困境,因為它們的嚴重程度沒有那麼嚴重。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, look, I'd say, I don't want to get into specifics on each individual item. I would say we certainly at this point expect to see, SG&A deleverage in the first and second quarter and those get made up for in the back end of the year. You're probably talking about plus or minus 150 to 250 basis point impact in the first quarter, but again there's more to it than that. So that's a very broad range. And quite frankly subject to a lot of other factors that we don't have a great line of sight into.
是的,我想說,我不想詳細討論每一件具體的事情。我想說,我們現在肯定預期會看到,銷售、一般及行政費用在第一和第二季去槓桿,並且這些會在年底得到彌補。您可能談論的是第一季正負 150 到 250 個基點的影響,但事實遠不止於此。所以這是一個非常廣泛的範圍。坦白說,這也受到許多我們無法很好洞察的其他因素的影響。
I would also note there's opportunity to outperform that based upon the pace of shipping that we observe. So it could be that we end up much better than that as a reflection of some more encouraging shipping trends should those develop.
我還要指出,根據我們觀察到的航運速度,還有機會超越這一點。因此,如果這些趨勢得以發展,我們最終的結果可能會比這更好,因為這反映出了一些更令人鼓舞的航運趨勢。
Sam Poser - Analyst
Sam Poser - Analyst
Okay. And then lastly, China. Again, that seems like more of a headwind than what you may have anticipated a few months ago for the year. Again, in the first quarter given it -- I mean, how much of -- is China really the big change in the revenue and everything else seems okay, or is there something else there?
好的。最後是中國。再說一遍,這似乎比你幾個月前對今年的預期更不利。再說一下,在第一季度,中國市場的收入真的發生了多大的變化,而其他方面看起來都還好,還是有其他原因?
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
Well, I'd say FX is the biggest overall change from where we would have been at the end of the last quarter. So the most significant impact we've seen globally is about FX. I would say -- it's fair to say China came in in the fourth quarter worse than we had anticipated. When we last spoke about Singles' Day, we had yet to see the effects of the end of the period and then the return window that definitely came off worse than we expected. So I'd say Q4 and the early part of 2025, it's definitely less encouraging than we had thought it would be.
嗯,我想說,與上一季末的情況相比,外匯是我們最大的整體變化。因此,我們在全球範圍內看到的最重大的影響是關於外匯的。我想說——公平地說,中國第四季的表現比我們預期的還要差。當我們上次談到光棍節時,我們還沒有看到該時期結束的影響,而回歸窗口的影響肯定比我們預期的要糟糕。因此,我想說,第四季和 2025 年初的情況肯定不如我們想像的那麼令人鼓舞。
I would be very clear though. I look around the rest of the world and things look, very good, not just okay, very good. Continued strength in EMEA, continued strength in the Americas, Asia-PAC excluding China looks fantastic. So I think the read on the business should be China remains challenged. It's a macro event. We're going to work on what we can, but in a way we need the market to get a little healthier
我會說得非常清楚。我環顧世界其他地方,情況看起來非常好,不只是還好,而是非常好。歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續保持強勁勢頭,美洲地區持續保持強勁勢頭,除中國以外的亞太地區表現十分出色。因此我認為對業務的解讀應該是中國仍面臨挑戰。這是一個宏觀事件。我們會盡我們所能,但在某種程度上,我們需要市場變得更健康一點
Absent that, the business performing very, very well. Performed exceptionally well in Q4 because China performed worse and we still on a constant currency basis blew through our guidance, so we're pretty encouraged quite frankly by what we see. Certainly, there's some noise associated with China and FX and tax rates, but absent that, if you're looking at the organic nature of the business, it continues to be very, very encouraging, and we're encouraged by that.
除此之外,業務表現非常非常好。第四季的表現異常出色,因為中國的表現較差,而且我們以固定匯率計算仍超出了我們的預期,因此坦白說,我們對所看到的情況感到非常鼓舞。當然,中國、外匯和稅率方面存在一些噪音,但除此之外,如果你看一下業務的有機性質,它仍然非常非常令人鼓舞,我們對此感到鼓舞。
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
Yeah, you have to remember we grow almost $900 million with no growth in China, and if that continues through this year, we'll have made up about what China's volume is in less than a two-year period and growth continues through there. So on whatever metrics and as we keep pointing out, we're not dependent on any one geography or any one category, and I think this proves it very much so.
是的,你必須記住,我們在中國沒有成長的情況下成長了近 9 億美元,如果這種狀況持續到今年,我們將在不到兩年的時間內彌補中國市場的規模,並且在中國繼續成長。因此,無論以什麼指標,正如我們不斷指出的那樣,我們並不依賴任何一個地區或任何一個類別,我認為這充分證明了這一點。
We continue to grow with China not growing, and we do believe China will come back and add to the growth as we go through the next year. (inaudible) we talked about increasing our creation demand within China and continuing to develop and putting our new developments front and center into China, and we think that will change the scorecard as we get through the back half of this year. So we have a lot of positives going into a very difficult marketplace.
中國經濟沒有成長,而我們卻持續成長。 我們堅信,隨著明年的到來,中國經濟將會復甦,並持續成長。 (聽不清楚)我們談到了增加我們在中國境內的創作需求,繼續發展並將我們的新發展放在中國的核心位置,我們認為,這將改變我們在今年下半年的成績單。因此,我們在進入非常困難的市場時仍有許多正面因素。
Sam Poser - Analyst
Sam Poser - Analyst
I'm sorry, one more thing. In Europe, is there any invent given so much as in transit, is there any -- anything constraining sales given all the in-transit inventory in Europe given the strength of the business?
抱歉,還有一件事。在歐洲,是否存在任何運輸中的庫存,考慮到歐洲所有的運輸中庫存,考慮到業務實力,是否有任何因素限制銷售?
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
First of all, it was in-transit at December 31 and we did have some increases in inventory. So right now, it's just a lot of processing to do and we're very busy in those places, but we anticipate all the inventory that was anticipated for Q1 will be here.
首先,12 月 31 日它在運輸途中,我們的庫存確實有所增加。所以現在,有很多處理工作要做,我們在這些地方非常忙,但我們預計第一季預期的所有庫存都會到這裡。
Sam Poser - Analyst
Sam Poser - Analyst
And was there any issue in the fourth quarter of the sales because of in-transits?
第四季的銷售是否因運輸途中而出現問題?
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
David Weinberg - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Director
I don't know what the exact reason was. We felt we were a little short in December. I think, business there like anything else we had a slight shift from December into January rather than the other way, so we did have to pick up some early in January but on an overall basis for the season, I think we're going to come out quite well.
我不知道具體原因是什麼。我們覺得 12 月份的庫存有點不足。我認為,那裡的業務和其他任何事情一樣,從 12 月到 1 月發生了輕微轉變,而不是相反,所以我們確實不得不在 1 月初收回一些收入,但從整個季節來看,我認為我們會出現相當好的結果。
We did grow in -- I think it was the converse. In the fourth quarter, we had a very strong October simply because things were delayed and we were trying to catch all the inventory. So I thought, I think because we delivered so much in October on a relative basis, it moved things out through December and into January and now we have a significant demand pick up again and all the inventory is there.
我們確實成長了——我認為情況恰恰相反。在第四季度,我們十月份的業績非常強勁,只是因為產品延遲了,而我們試圖消化掉所有的庫存。所以我想,因為我們在十月份相對情況交付了這麼多,所以它把貨物轉移到了十二月份和一月份,現在我們的需求再次大幅回升,所有的庫存都在那裡。
Operator
Operator
That does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to pass it back to management for any closing comments.
今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將其交回管理層,以便他們做出最後評論。
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
John Vandemore - Chief Financial Officer
No closing comments here. Thank you, everybody, for your time and look forward to speaking with you at the end of Q1.
這裡沒有結束語。謝謝大家的時間,並期待在第一季末與你們交談。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路。