Skechers USA Inc (SKX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Skechers Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Skechers 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn this conference over to Skechers. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想把這個會議轉交給 Skechers。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Hello, everyone. My name is Amanda Starsiak the FP&A team. Thank you for joining us on the Skechers conference call today. I will now read the safe harbor statement. .

大家好。我的名字是 FP&A 團隊的 Amanda Starsiak。感謝您今天加入我們的 Skechers 電話會議。我現在將閱讀安全港聲明。 .

Certain statements contained herein, including without limitation, statements addressing the beliefs, plans, objectives, estimates or expectations of the company or future results or events may constitute forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic has had and is currently having a significant impact on the company's business, financial conditions, cash flow and results of operations.

此處包含的某些陳述，包括但不限於針對公司的信念、計劃、目標、估計或預期或未來結果或事件的陳述，可能構成涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。具體而言，COVID-19 大流行已經並且目前正在對公司的業務、財務狀況、現金流和經營業績產生重大影響。

Such forward-looking statements with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic include, without limitation, the company's plans in response to this pandemic. At this time, there is significant uncertainty about the duration and extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

此類關於 COVID-19 大流行的前瞻性陳述包括但不限於公司應對這一大流行的計劃。目前，COVID-19 大流行影響的持續時間和程度存在很大的不確定性。

The dynamic nature of these circumstances means that what is said on this call could change at any time. And as a result, actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements.

這些情況的動態性質意味著在這次電話會議上所說的內容可能隨時發生變化。因此，實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述所預期的結果存在重大差異。

Additional forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, including but not limited to global, national and local economic, business and market conditions, including the impact of inflation, Russia's war with Ukraine and supply chain delays and disruptions in general and specifically as they apply to the retail industry and the company.

其他前瞻性陳述涉及已知和未知的風險，包括但不限於全球、國家和當地的經濟、商業和市場狀況，包括通貨膨脹的影響、俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰爭以及供應鏈的一般延誤和中斷，特別是因為它們適用於零售行業和公司。

There can be no assurance that the actual future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by any of our forward-looking statements will occur. Users of forward-looking statements are encouraged to review the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including the most recent annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and all other reports filed with the SEC as required by federal securities laws for a description of all other significant risk factors that may affect the company's business, financial conditions, cash flows and results of operations.

無法保證我們任何前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的實際未來結果、業績或成就將會發生。鼓勵前瞻性陳述的用戶查看公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括 10-K 表格的最新年度報告、10-Q 表格的季度報告、8-K 表格的當前報告以及所有根據聯邦證券法的要求向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告，用於描述可能影響公司業務、財務狀況、現金流量和經營業績的所有其他重大風險因素。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Skechers' Chief Operating Officer, David Weinberg; and Chief Financial Officer, John Vandemore. David?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Skechers 的首席運營官 David Weinberg；和首席財務官 John Vandemore。大衛？

Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter and full year 2022 conference call. 2022, our 30th year in business was a significant milestone for the company. We achieved record sales of $7.4 billion, an increase of $1.1 billion or 18% year-over-year. On a constant currency basis, sales would have exceeded $7.7 billion, an increase of over $1.4 billion. Our fourth quarterly sales records in 2022 are the result of our focused marketing efforts, extensive distribution network and core design principles: style, comfort, innovation and quality, all at a reasonable price.

感謝您今天加入我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。 2022年，我們的第30個年頭對公司來說是一個重要的里程碑。我們實現了創紀錄的 74 億美元銷售額，同比增長 11 億美元或 18%。按固定匯率計算，銷售額將超過 77 億美元，增加超過 14 億美元。我們 2022 年第四季度的銷售記錄是我們專注的營銷工作、廣泛的分銷網絡和核心設計原則的結果：風格、舒適、創新和質量，而且價格合理。

From a product perspective, we further cemented Skechers as the comfort technology company with the introduction of Skechers, hands-free slip-ins and continue to innovate our performance solutions with the launch of Skechers Pickleball shoes. Among many other standout moments, Footwear News named Skechers Company of The Year for the third time and our elite golf athletes, Matt Fitzpatrick and Brooke Henderson, one majors wearing Skechers GO GOLF. It was also a year that presented challenges, including temporary COVID-related store closures in China and rising freight and logistic costs, which have started to moderate.

從產品的角度來看，我們通過推出 Skechers 免提便鞋進一步鞏固了 Skechers 作為舒適技術公司的地位，並通過推出 Skechers Pickleball 鞋繼續創新我們的性能解決方案。在許多其他傑出時刻中，《鞋類新聞》第三次將 Skechers 評為年度最佳公司，我們的精英高爾夫運動員 Matt Fitzpatrick 和 Brooke Henderson 也是穿著 Skechers GO GOLF 的專業人士。這也是充滿挑戰的一年，包括在中國暫時關閉與 COVID 相關的商店以及運費和物流成本的上漲，這些成本已經開始放緩。

We also experienced supply chain disruptions that created inventory congestion throughout the distribution channel as we move through the year. We overcame those challenges and achieved record annual sales due to the flexibility, creativity and dedication of the global Skechers organization. Thank you to all the team members at our corporate headquarters, in our offices and distribution centers our sales teams in the field and our retail associates throughout our global network of Skechers stores. Each and every one of our team members is an important contributor to our ongoing success.

我們還經歷了供應鏈中斷，導致整個分銷渠道的庫存擁堵。由於 Skechers 全球組織的靈活性、創造力和奉獻精神，我們克服了這些挑戰並實現了創紀錄的年銷售額。感謝我們公司總部、我們辦公室和配送中心的所有團隊成員、我們在該領域的銷售團隊以及我們遍布 Skechers 全球門店網絡的零售員工。我們團隊的每一位成員都是我們不斷取得成功的重要貢獻者。

We remain focused on meeting the demands of consumers, continuing to replenish stock at all our Skechers retail stores worldwide and partnering with our global accounts to ensure shoppers have access to the leader in comfort footwear. For the fourth quarter, Skechers achieved sales of $1.88 billion, a 13.5% increase, marking a new fourth quarter record and slightly above our previous quarterly record. This notable achievement was led by increases of 16% in wholesale and 11% in direct-to-consumer.

我們仍然專注於滿足消費者的需求，繼續在全球所有 Skechers 零售店補充庫存，並與我們的全球客戶合作，以確保購物者能夠買到舒適鞋類的領導者。第四季度，Skechers 實現銷售額 18.8 億美元，增長 13.5%，創下第四季度新紀錄，略高於我們之前的季度記錄。這一顯著成就得益於批發業務增長 16% 和直接面向消費者業務增長 11%。

Domestic sales increased 22% and international sales increased 9%, with international representing 62% of our revenues for the quarter and 59% for the full year. By region, EMEA grew 29% and the Americas grew 22%. APAC sales decreased 7%, which included a China sales decrease of 23%. Excluding China, APAC sales increased 31%. And approximately 62% of our global sales for the year, wholesale remains a key element of our growth strategy.

國內銷售額增長 22%，國際銷售額增長 9%，國際銷售額佔本季度收入的 62%，佔全年收入的 59%。按地區劃分，EMEA 增長 29%，美洲增長 22%。亞太地區銷售額下降 7%，其中中國銷售額下降 23%。不包括中國在內，亞太地區的銷售額增長了 31%。批發占我們全年全球銷售額的大約 62%，仍然是我們增長戰略的關鍵要素。

As a consumer-driven company, we focus on what shoppers want and deliver it as efficiently as possible to our global wholesale partners. This allows us to reach our loyal base where and when they want to shop, be it department stores, family channels or their favorite specialty store.

作為一家以消費者為導向的公司，我們關注購物者的需求，並儘可能高效地將其交付給我們的全球批發合作夥伴。這使我們能夠在他們想購物的時間和地點接觸到我們的忠實客戶群，無論是百貨商店、家庭渠道還是他們最喜歡的專賣店。

In the quarter, wholesale increased by 16% in both the U.S. and international. The international growth was driven by double-digit increases across many markets globally. Overall, wholesale sales were driven by increases in unit volume of 9% and average selling price per unit of 6%. The Americas wholesale business grew 19% attributable to double-digit growth in nearly every market, including a 16% increase within our domestic wholesale channel, which saw a double-digit growth in our men's and kids lines and single-digit growth in women's.

本季度，美國和國際批發量均增長了 16%。全球許多市場的兩位數增長推動了國際增長。總體而言，批發銷售受到單位數量增長 9% 和單位平均售價 6% 的推動。美洲批發業務增長 19%，這歸功於幾乎每個市場都實現了兩位數的增長，其中包括我們國內批發渠道增長 16%，其中男裝和童裝產品線實現了兩位數增長，女裝產品線實現了個位數增長。

Of note, for the quarter, men's rose to 41% of our domestic wholesale business as we saw increases in most product categories. Recently, we have seen strong sales drivers across several men's key categories, and we believe that performance across the board speaks to the relevance and broad acceptance of our men's styles.

值得注意的是，本季度，隨著我們看到大多數產品類別的增長，男士產品在我們國內批發業務中的佔比上升至 41%。最近，我們看到幾個主要男裝類別的銷售增長強勁，我們相信全面的表現說明了我們男裝款式的相關性和廣泛接受度。

EMEA wholesale growth of 31% was primarily driven by double-digit improvements in Germany, Spain and Central Eastern Europe as well as to our distributors, including Turkey, the Middle East, Scandinavia and Greece. This was partially offset by the termination of shipments to Russia.

歐洲、中東和非洲 31% 的批發增長主要受到德國、西班牙和中東歐以及我們的分銷商（包括土耳其、中東、斯堪的納維亞和希臘）兩位數增長的推動。這部分被向俄羅斯發貨的終止所抵消。

APAC wholesale decreased 6%, primarily due to the challenges in China. Excluding China, APAC wholesale sales grew 32% as we experienced growth across most other markets, most notably in India and Indonesia with high double-digit growth and Taiwan with triple-digit growth. A key focus area for the company is direct-to-consumer where we are working to create a more seamless omnichannel experience. The 11% sales increase in the quarter was the result of 27% growth in the Americas and 19% in EMEA, partially offset by a decrease of 7% in APAC. Again, primarily due to China. Direct-to-consumer comparable same-store sales worldwide increased 7.5%.

亞太地區批發量下降 6%，主要是由於中國的挑戰。不包括中國在內，亞太地區的批發銷售額增長了 32%，因為我們在大多數其他市場都經歷了增長，尤其是印度和印度尼西亞的兩位數高增長以及台灣的三位數增長。公司的一個重點關注領域是直接面向消費者，我們正在努力創造更加無縫的全渠道體驗。本季度 11% 的銷售額增長是美洲增長 27% 和歐洲、中東和非洲增長 19% 的結果，部分被亞太地區 7% 的下降所抵消。同樣，主要是由於中國。全球直接面向消費者的可比同店銷售額增長了 7.5%。

Domestic direct-to-consumer sales increased 30% due to strong triple-digit growth in our e-commerce channel as well as a double-digit increase in our brick-and-mortar stores. International direct-to-consumer sales were flat due to declines in China where at one point over 35% of our stores were temporarily closed. Outside of China and Chile, which was impacted by economic volatility, every other market experienced growth within our company-owned Skechers store portfolio, and nearly every market grew in our direct e-commerce business and total direct-to-consumer unit volume increased 15% and average selling price was down 3.5%.

國內直接面向消費者的銷售額增長了 30%，這歸功於我們電子商務渠道的強勁三位數增長以及我們實體店的兩位數增長。由於中國的下滑，國際直接面向消費者的銷售額持平，中國曾有超過 35% 的門店暫時關閉。在受經濟波動影響的中國和智利之外，我們公司擁有的 Skechers 門店組合中的所有其他市場都實現了增長，幾乎每個市場的直接電子商務業務都實現了增長，直接面向消費者的總銷量增加了 15 %，平均售價下降 3.5%。

In the fourth quarter, we opened 62 company-owned Skechers stores and closed 22, of which 17 were in China. Included in the openings were 29 in China, 7 big box or outlet stores in the United States, 4 in India and our first company-owned store in Ireland, a flagship location on Grafton Street in Dublin. We ended the quarter with 4,537 Skechers stores worldwide, of which 3,093 were third-party stores, which include 157 that opened in the fourth quarter, 94 of which were in China, 16 in India, 9 in the Philippines and 7 in Australia.

第四季度，我們開設了 62 家斯凱奇自營門店，關閉了 22 家，其中 17 家在中國。包括中國的 29 家、美國的 7 家大賣場或奧特萊斯店、印度的 4 家以及我們在愛爾蘭的第一家公司直營店，旗艦店位於都柏林的格拉夫頓街。本季度末，我們在全球擁有 4,537 家 Skechers 門店，其中 3,093 家為第三方門店，其中 157 家於第四季度開業，其中 94 家在中國，16 家在印度，9 家在菲律賓，7 家在澳大利亞。

In the first quarter 2023, we've opened 7 company-owned stores, 6 big box locations in the U.S. and 1 concept store in Germany. Year-to-date, we have closed 1 location in the United States. We expect to open a total of 35 to 40 company-owned stores worldwide in the first quarter and between 100 to 120 stores over the course of the year.

2023 年第一季度，我們在美國開設了 7 家公司直營店、6 家大賣場和德國 1 家概念店。年初至今，我們已經關閉了美國的 1 個地點。我們預計第一季度將在全球開設 35 至 40 家公司直營店，全年將開設 100 至 120 家門店。

In the fourth quarter, we launched our first Skechers e-commerce site in Japan and are pleased with the initial reaction from consumers. We remain focused on growing our direct-to-consumer business to efficiently drive sales and connect with our loyal consumers. To this end, we have planned additional e-commerce sites, including Peru, Colombia and an update to our existing platform in Chile which is already one of our most productive international e-commerce sites. Last month, we also launched our Sketch + loyalty program in Canada and plan to roll out this program to more countries throughout the year.

第四季度，我們在日本推出了第一個 Skechers 電子商務網站，對消費者的初步反應感到滿意。我們仍然專注於發展我們的直接面向消費者的業務，以有效地推動銷售並與我們忠實的消費者建立聯繫。為此，我們計劃增加更多的電子商務網站，包括秘魯、哥倫比亞，並更新我們在智利的現有平台，該平台已經是我們最高效的國際電子商務網站之一。上個月，我們還在加拿大推出了 Sketch + 忠誠度計劃，併計劃全年將該計劃推廣到更多國家。

Our fourth quarter growth across all segments of our business and the increases in nearly every market demonstrate the robust demand for our comfort technology products, the relevance of our footwear collections, the effectiveness of our marketing efforts and our commitment and ability to execute in the face of headwinds.

我們所有業務部門的第四季度增長以及幾乎每個市場的增長都表明對我們的舒適技術產品的強勁需求、我們鞋類系列的相關性、我們營銷工作的有效性以及我們的承諾和執行能力逆風。

Many of the shipping challenges we faced within our own distribution centers have eased, and we are seeing improved operations in our recently expanded 2.6 million square foot North American distribution center.

我們在自己的配送中心面臨的許多運輸挑戰已經緩解，我們看到最近擴建的 260 萬平方英尺的北美配送中心的運營得到改善。

By the end of the first half of 2023, we expect to be shipping out of a new 427,000 square foot center in Vancouver that will improve delivery times for Canada and to have relocated our new Chilean distribution center doubling our space to 430,000 square feet. Additionally, in India, the 660,000 square foot Phase 1 of our new 1.1 million square foot distribution center outside Mumbai is expected to be completed by year's end.

到 2023 年上半年末，我們預計將從溫哥華一個新的 427,000 平方英尺的中心發貨，這將縮短加拿大的交貨時間，並搬遷我們新的智利配送中心，使我們的空間增加一倍，達到 430,000 平方英尺。此外，在印度，我們在孟買郊外新建的佔地 110 萬平方英尺的配送中心一期佔地 660,000 平方英尺，預計將於年底完工。

As always, we believe demand creation is critical to our brand's success. To support and drive awareness of our diverse product offering, we leverage a roster of notable talent, both globally and in regional markets. The talent is as diverse as lifestyle guru, Martha Stewart, retired athletes, Sugar Ray Leonard and Tony Romo and elite major championship golfers, Brooke Henderson and Matt Fitzpatrick.

一如既往，我們相信創造需求對我們品牌的成功至關重要。為了支持和提高我們多樣化產品的知名度，我們利用了全球和區域市場的知名人才名冊。才華橫溢，包括生活方式大師瑪莎·斯圖爾特、退役運動員舒格·雷·倫納德和托尼·羅莫，以及精英大滿貫錦標賽高爾夫球手布魯克·亨德森和馬特·菲茨帕特里克。

We also signed Pickleball Pros, Tyson McGuffin and Catherine Parenteau in early 2022 to correspond with the launch of Skechers Viper Court pickleball shoes. We are now the official footwear sponsor of the Professional Pickleball Association Tour, creating an undeniable connection between the fastest-growing sport in America and Skechers. Skechers employs a 360-degree marketing approach. Digital and social media, television, out-of-home, print, radio and PR and translates our campaigns into dozens of languages, wherever consumers are. Be it the most watched soccer matches in the world, a subway in Asia, billboards in South America or fashion magazines in Europe, we are there. And wherever consumers shop, phones, high streets or malls, we are there. All these marketing techniques build brand awareness and drive consumer demand.

我們還在 2022 年初簽下了 Pickleball Pros、Tyson McGuffin 和 Catherine Parenteau，以配合 Skechers Viper Court pickleball 鞋的發布。我們現在是 Professional Pickleball Association Tour 的官方鞋類贊助商，在美國發展最快的運動和 Skechers 之間建立了不可否認的聯繫。 Skechers 採用 360 度營銷方法。數字和社交媒體、電視、戶外、印刷、廣播和公關，並將我們的活動翻譯成數十種語言，無論消費者身在何處。無論是世界上收視率最高的足球比賽、亞洲的地鐵、南美的廣告牌還是歐洲的時尚雜誌，我們都在那裡。無論消費者在哪裡購物、打電話、商業街或購物中心，我們都在那裡。所有這些營銷技巧都可以建立品牌知名度並推動消費者需求。

While we fully expect to face continuing challenges throughout the year, the recent elimination of the zero COVID policy is a positive for our business in China, and we believe both consumer confidence and more normal shopping behavior will build throughout the year. In addition, despite the recent inventory challenges impacting our domestic distribution network, we remain confident in the strength of our brand and the demand for our products.

雖然我們完全預計全年將面臨持續的挑戰，但最近取消零 COVID 政策對我們在中國的業務是積極的，我們相信消費者信心和更正常的購物行為將在全年建立。此外，儘管最近的庫存挑戰影響了我們的國內分銷網絡，但我們仍然對我們的品牌實力和對我們產品的需求充滿信心。

Further, we are beginning to see freight and logistic costs normalize, foreign currency rates moving in our favor and our retail stores full of fresh inventory. We had a strong December, and January direct-to-consumer sales tracked ahead of last year giving us confidence that we'll see continued growth in 2023.

此外，我們開始看到運費和物流成本正常化，外幣匯率對我們有利，我們的零售店充滿新鮮庫存。我們在 12 月表現強勁，1 月的直接面向消費者的銷售額比去年領先，這讓我們有信心在 2023 年看到持續增長。

And now I would like to turn the call over to John for more details on our financial results.

現在我想把電話轉給約翰，了解我們財務業績的更多細節。

Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. 2022 was our 30th year in business. And as I reflect on the past 4 quarters, I'm incredibly proud of our talented team around the globe for navigating one of the most turbulent macroeconomic environments in our 30-year history, while remaining steadfastly focused on executing against our long-term growth strategy.

謝謝你，大衛，大家下午好。 2022 年是我們開展業務的第 30 個年頭。當我回顧過去的 4 個季度時，我為我們遍布全球的才華橫溢的團隊感到無比自豪，他們在我們 30 年曆史上最動蕩的宏觀經濟環境之一中航行，同時堅定不移地專注於執行我們的長期增長戰略。

In this complex year, Skechers achieved record quarterly and full year results, surpassing $7.4 billion in annual sales, an impressive year-over-year increase of over $1.1 billion, driven by global growth across our channels. These results demonstrate the strength of our brand as the comfort technology leader and the robust consumer appetite for our innovative product portfolio.

在這個複雜的一年裡，Skechers 取得了創紀錄的季度和全年業績，年銷售額超過 74 億美元，在我們渠道的全球增長的推動下，同比增長超過 11 億美元，令人印象深刻。這些結果證明了我們品牌作為舒適技術領導者的實力以及消費者對我們創新產品組合的強烈需求。

We remain excited about the growth opportunities ahead and are committed to stylish, comfortable, high-quality and reasonably priced footwear for Skechers consumers around the globe.

我們仍然對未來的增長機會感到興奮，並致力於為全球 Skechers 消費者提供時尚、舒適、高品質和價格合理的鞋履。

Now let's review our fourth quarter financial results. Wholesale sales increased 16% year-over-year to $1.05 billion, representing 16% growth in both our domestic and international markets. We continue to see broad-based demand for our products evident in the increased number of units sold and higher average selling prices achieved. During the quarter, our supply chain team continued to work diligently to alleviate the congestion stemming from the unprecedented supply chain disruptions last year. While we continue to experience some processing constraints at our distribution centers from record input volumes, we are pleased with the progress we have made to improve efficiencies, expand capacity and reduce on-hand inventory while also maintaining the pace of shipments to our wholesale customers.

現在讓我們回顧一下第四季度的財務業績。批發銷售額同比增長 16% 至 10.5 億美元，國內和國際市場均增長 16%。我們繼續看到對我們產品的廣泛需求，這體現在銷售數量的增加和平均售價的提高上。在本季度，我們的供應鏈團隊繼續努力工作，以緩解去年前所未有的供應鏈中斷造成的擁堵。雖然我們的配送中心繼續因創紀錄的輸入量而受到一些處理限制，但我們對在提高效率、擴大產能和減少現有庫存方面取得的進展感到高興，同時還保持了向批發客戶發貨的速度。

Direct-to-consumer sales increased 11% year-over-year to $829.6 million, driven by 30% growth domestically from a triple-digit increase in e-commerce and a double-digit increase in our retail stores. Both channels benefited from healthier inventory levels compared to last year's supply-constrained environment. International direct-to-consumer sales were flat year-over-year due to a decline in China. However, excluding China, sales increased 22%, driven by double-digit growth in both our stores and online.

直接面向消費者的銷售額同比增長 11% 至 8.296 億美元，這得益於電子商務三位數增長和零售店兩位數增長帶來的國內 30% 的增長。與去年供應受限的環境相比，這兩個渠道都受益於更健康的庫存水平。由於中國的下滑，國際直接面向消費者的銷售額同比持平。然而，不包括中國在內，銷售額增長了 22%，這主要得益於我們的商店和網上的兩位數增長。

The expansion of our digital presence internationally and continued penetration of our retail stores contributed to strong growth as we further develop direct relationships with both our long-standing and new consumers. We are excited about the growth opportunities in our global direct-to-consumer business, both physically and digitally and remain focused on weaving our omnichannel capabilities into a seamless consumer-centric experience and showcasing the breadth of our full product assortment.

隨著我們進一步發展與長期和新消費者的直接關係，我們在國際上的數字業務擴張和我們零售店的持續滲透促進了強勁增長。我們對全球直接面向消費者業務的實體和數字增長機會感到興奮，並將繼續專注於將我們的全渠道能力融入以消費者為中心的無縫體驗，並展示我們完整產品系列的廣度。

Now turning to our regional sales. In the Americas, sales for the fourth quarter increased 22% year-over-year to $925.6 million, driven by double-digit growth across all channels, reflecting healthy consumer demand for our compelling product portfolio and improved inventory availability. In EMEA, sales increased 29% year-over-year to $413.7 million, driven by double-digit growth across all channels and in most countries, led by Germany and sales to our distributors. We continue to experience strong brand momentum and consumer demand in EMEA throughout the quarter.

現在轉向我們的區域銷售。在美洲，受所有渠道兩位數增長的推動，第四季度銷售額同比增長 22% 至 9.256 億美元，反映出消費者對我們引人注目的產品組合的健康需求以及庫存可用性的提高。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，銷售額同比增長 29% 至 4.137 億美元，這得益於所有渠道和大多數國家/地區的兩位數增長，其中以德國為首，以及對我們分銷商的銷售額。整個季度，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區繼續感受到強勁的品牌勢頭和消費者需求。

In APAC, sales decreased 7% year-over-year to $539.5 million. However, excluding China, sales grew 31%, driven by double-digit growth in all channels. We saw particular strength in India, one of our fastest-growing markets in the region and in sales to our distributors. In China, sales declined 23% due to continued COVID-related disruptions, including the closure of over 35% of our stores at one point. Our China team has done an excellent job managing through these challenging conditions and persistent disruptions, and we thank them for their tremendous poise they have shown throughout.

在亞太地區，銷售額同比下降 7% 至 5.395 億美元。然而，不包括中國在內，銷售額增長了 31%，這得益於所有渠道的兩位數增長。我們在印度看到了特別的優勢，印度是我們在該地區增長最快的市場之一，並且在我們對經銷商的銷售方面。在中國，由於與 COVID 相關的持續中斷，包括一度關閉超過 35% 的商店，銷售額下降了 23%。我們的中國團隊在應對這些具有挑戰性的條件和持續的干擾方面做得非常出色，我們感謝他們在整個過程中表現出的巨大鎮定。

Fourth quarter gross margins were 48.4%, a decrease of 40 basis points year-over-year, but an increase of 140 basis points quarter-over-quarter. The year-over-year decrease was the result of higher product costs and planned strategic promotions in our direct-to-consumer business.

第四季度毛利率為48.4%，同比下降40個基點，環比上升140個基點。同比下降是由於產品成本增加和我們直接面向消費者業務的計劃戰略促銷活動。

Operating expenses increased 60 basis points as a percentage of sales year-over-year from 43.2% to 43.8%. Selling expenses increased $19.1 million or 14%, but were flat as a percentage of sales compared to the prior year. The dollar increase was primarily due to higher demand creation expenses in digital and brand marketing globally.

營業費用佔銷售額的百分比同比增長 60 個基點，從 43.2% 增至 43.8%。銷售費用增加 1,910 萬美元或 14%，但與上一年相比佔銷售額的百分比持平。美元的增長主要是由於全球數字和品牌營銷的需求創造費用增加。

General and administrative expenses increased $88.9 million or 15% and 60 basis points as a percentage of sales year-over-year. We incurred approximately $25 million of incremental logistics costs globally to minimize disruption in delivering products to our customers in addition to increased volume-driven distribution expenses. We are making considerable progress on restoring efficiency and accelerating the capacity expansion in our domestic distribution center, where notably, inventory was down 12% from the prior quarter.

一般和管理費用增加 8890 萬美元或 15%，佔銷售額的百分比同比增加 60 個基點。我們在全球產生了大約 2500 萬美元的增量物流成本，以盡量減少向客戶交付產品的中斷以及增加的數量驅動的分銷費用。我們在恢復效率和加快國內配送中心產能擴張方面取得了長足進步，值得注意的是，庫存較上一季度下降了 12%。

However, we continue to expect to incur some incremental logistics costs over the next several quarters, albeit at a moderating amount. Earnings from operations were $86.6 million, a 7% decrease compared to the prior year, and our operating margin for the quarter was 4.6% compared to 5.6% in the prior year. Earnings per share were $0.48 per diluted share on 156.3 million diluted shares outstanding compared to adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.43 in the prior year, a 12% increase.

然而，我們繼續預計在接下來的幾個季度中會產生一些增量物流成本，儘管數量不多。運營收益為 8660 萬美元，比去年同期下降 7%，本季度營業利潤率為 4.6%，去年同期為 5.6%。 1.563 億股稀釋流通股的每股攤薄收益為 0.48 美元，與上年調整後的攤薄每股收益 0.43 美元相比增長了 12%。

Our effective tax rate was 9.6% for the fourth quarter and 17.8% for the full year. The lower-than-expected tax rate was attributable to the utilization of foreign tax credits and benefits from certain discrete items.

我們第四季度的有效稅率為 9.6%，全年為 17.8%。低於預期的稅率是由於利用了外國稅收抵免和某些離散項目的好處。

And now turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $788.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments, a decrease of $252.1 million from December 31, 2021, but an increase of $106.9 million from the prior quarter. We continue to invest in working capital to drive sales and ensure we have product available in the right place and at the right time to meet consumer demand.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。本季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 7.884 億美元，比 2021 年 12 月 31 日減少 2.521 億美元，但比上一季度增加 1.069 億美元。我們繼續投資於營運資金以推動銷售，並確保我們在正確的地點和正確的時間提供產品以滿足消費者的需求。

Inventory was $1.82 billion, an increase of 24% or $347 million compared to the prior year, but up only 2% versus last quarter. We continue to experience supply chain disruptions, but we are pleased with the progress we are making to reduce elevated inventory levels.

庫存為 18.2 億美元，比上年增長 24% 或 3.47 億美元，但比上一季度僅增長 2%。我們繼續經歷供應鏈中斷，但我們對在降低高庫存水平方面取得的進展感到高興。

Accounts receivable at quarter end were $848.3 million, an increase of $115.5 million, reflecting higher wholesale sales.

季度末的應收賬款為 8.483 億美元，增加了 1.155 億美元，反映了批發銷售額的增加。

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $95.4 million, of which $40.2 million was related to the expansion of our distribution infrastructure globally, $23.8 million related to investments in our retail stores and direct-to-consumer technologies and $21.7 million, primarily related to the construction of our new product design center. Our capital investments are focused on supporting our strategic priorities, growing our direct-to-consumer business and expanding our brand presence globally.

本季度的資本支出為 9,540 萬美元，其中 4,020 萬美元與我們在全球範圍內擴展分銷基礎設施有關，2,380 萬美元與我們的零售店和直接面向消費者的技術投資有關，2,170 萬美元主要與建設我們的新產品設計中心。我們的資本投資專注於支持我們的戰略重點，發展我們的直接面向消費者的業務，並擴大我們在全球的品牌影響力。

Now turning to guidance. As we begin 2023, it will come as no surprise that there is a meaningful degree of uncertainty ahead. For example, while we continue to see robust consumer demand for our product evidenced in strong comparable store sales trends and sell-through, there are also many recessionary signals in the marketplace.

現在轉向指導。隨著 2023 年的開始，未來存在很大程度的不確定性也就不足為奇了。例如，雖然我們繼續看到強勁的可比店面銷售趨勢和銷售率證明了消費者對我們產品的強勁需求，但市場上也出現了許多衰退信號。

Our results will be significantly influenced by what prevails, but embedded in our initial guidance for 2023 is the following: Continued sales momentum in most of our international markets throughout the year; a China market recovery characterized by continued near-term challenges but improving steadily over the course of the year; a domestic wholesale marketplace gradually overcoming elevated inventory levels and supply chain constraints, resulting in declines in the first half of the year before returning to growth in the back half; a steady improvement to our distribution operating efficiency as expanded capacity and other remediation efforts bear fruit; and finally, the gross margin benefits of lower logistics costs particularly in freight, maturing into our results over the course of the year as we deplete the inventory we acquired last year.

我們的業績將受到盛行的重大影響，但我們對 2023 年的初步指導意見如下：全年大部分國際市場的銷售勢頭持續；中國市場復甦的特點是持續存在近期挑戰，但在一年中穩步改善；國內批發市場逐漸克服高庫存水平和供應鏈限制，導致上半年下降，然後在下半年恢復增長；隨著產能擴張和其他補救措施取得成果，我們的配送運營效率穩步提高；最後，由於我們耗盡了去年收購的庫存，降低物流成本（尤其是運費）帶來的毛利率優勢在這一年中逐漸體現在我們的業績中。

For fiscal 2023, we expect sales to be in the range of $7.75 billion to $8 billion and net earnings per diluted share in the range of $2.80 to $3. For the first quarter, we expect sales in the range of $1.8 billion to $1.85 billion and net earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.55 to $0.60. Our effective tax rate for the year is expected to be between 19% and 20%. And we expect total capital expenditures to be between $300 million and $350 million as we continue to invest in our strategic priorities, including additional stores, added omnichannel capabilities and incremental distribution capacity in key markets like India, China, Chile and more.

對於 2023 財年，我們預計銷售額將在 77.5 億美元至 80 億美元之間，攤薄後每股淨收益將在 2.80 美元至 3 美元之間。對於第一季度，我們預計銷售額在 18 億美元至 18.5 億美元之間，攤薄後每股淨收益在 0.55 美元至 0.60 美元之間。我們今年的有效稅率預計在 19% 到 20% 之間。我們預計總資本支出將在 3 億至 3.5 億美元之間，因為我們將繼續投資於我們的戰略重點，包括在印度、中國、智利等主要市場增加門店、增加全渠道能力和增加分銷能力。

We also expect to continue our discretionary share repurchase program, of which approximately $425.8 million remained available at December 31, 2022. As we move forward into 2023, we remain confident that our long-term growth strategy will continue to provide a strong foundation and ensure Skechers is positioned to drive long-term profitable growth underpinned by our unwavering commitment to deliver value through our innovative comfort technology product portfolio at compelling prices for consumers globally.

我們還希望繼續我們的酌情股票回購計劃，其中約 4.258 億美元在 2022 年 12 月 31 日仍然可用。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們仍然相信我們的長期增長戰略將繼續提供堅實的基礎並確保Skechers 定位於推動長期盈利增長，這得益於我們堅定不移地致力於通過我們創新的舒適技術產品組合以極具吸引力的價格為全球消費者提供價值。

With that, I will now turn the call over to David for closing remarks.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給大衛作結束語。

Thank you, John. The past 30 years have been marked by unforgettable moments from our first store opening, first television commercial and first $1 billion in sales to now operating over 4,500 stores, collaborating with Martha Stewart and many others for our comfort footwear, being named Company of the Year by leading trade publication footwear news and achieving well over $7 billion in sales this year. At every point along the way. Be it the many milestones or the challenges we have faced over the years, one thing has been consistent, our incredible employees. Sales personnel and customer service teams on the front lines, a talented and creative group of designers and marketers, our logistics and operations force that makes it all check, managers and executives who drive the vision. There is truly nothing like the global Skechers team, and we thank the entire organization for making 2022 an incredible year.

謝謝你，約翰。在過去的 30 年裡，從我們的第一家商店開業、第一個電視廣告和第一個 10 億美元的銷售額到現在經營超過 4,500 家商店，與 Martha Stewart 和許多其他人合作生產我們舒適的鞋類，被評為年度公司由領先的貿易刊物鞋類新聞發布，今年銷售額超過 70 億美元。沿途的每一個點。無論是許多里程碑還是我們多年來面臨的挑戰，一件事一直是一致的，我們令人難以置信的員工。前線的銷售人員和客戶服務團隊，一群才華橫溢、富有創造力的設計師和營銷人員，我們的物流和運營團隊負責檢查，經理和高管推動願景。斯凱奇全球團隊確實無與倫比，我們感謝整個組織讓 2022 年成為令人難以置信的一年。

2023 will continue to present challenges, but we believe that with our loyal partners and dedicated team, Skechers will continue to reach new heights, including $10 billion of annual sales by 2026.

2023 年將繼續面臨挑戰，但我們相信，憑藉我們忠誠的合作夥伴和敬業的團隊，Skechers 將繼續達到新的高度，包括到 2026 年實現 100 億美元的年銷售額。

Now I would like to turn the call over to the operator for questions.

現在我想把電話轉給接線員提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jay Sole with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

Great. My question is just about China and what's embedded into the guidance. John, you mentioned you expect an improvement throughout the year. But can you tell us sort of right now in fourth quarter what -- how would China sales are trending year-to-date -- sorry, quarter-to-date and then sort of what you expect for Q1? And then maybe if you can sort of quantify a little bit how you expect the year to play out, that would be super helpful.

偉大的。我的問題只是關於中國以及指南中包含的內容。約翰，你提到你希望全年都有改善。但是你能告訴我們現在第四季度的情況嗎——今年迄今為止中國的銷售趨勢如何——抱歉，季度至今，然後是你對第一季度的預期？然後也許如果你能稍微量化一下你對這一年的預期，那將非常有幫助。

Well, we're not going to give a year-to-date trend for '23 other than to note that what we referenced in the guidance certainly includes that perspective. I think there are a lot of unknowns in China currently, having departed from the COVID zero policy, you're still seeing COVID effects as there are infections and other protocols in place in response to that. That is one of the reasons why the fourth quarter saw the declines that it did.

好吧，我們不會給出 '23 的年初至今趨勢，只是要注意我們在指南中引用的內容肯定包括該觀點。我認為中國目前有很多未知數，已經偏離 COVID 零政策，你仍然會看到 COVID 的影響，因為有感染和其他協議來應對。這就是第四季度出現下滑的原因之一。

Currently, we expect the challenges to continue for at least the first quarter and potentially reaching into the second, but a more significant rebound opportunity in the back half of the year. I mean, admittedly, though, we're going to have to see how the situation unfolds. We have seen some positive indications lately with regards to foot traffic and in-store performance that we haven't seen for quite a while. So that's very encouraging.

目前，我們預計挑戰至少會持續到第一季度，並可能會持續到第二季度，但在今年下半年會有更重要的反彈機會。不過，我的意思是，誠然，我們將不得不看看情況如何發展。我們最近看到了一些關於客流量和店內表現的積極跡象，這是我們很長一段時間沒有看到的。所以這非常令人鼓舞。

I think the inventory position is well suited for that market to rebound. But ultimately, that's one of the bigger unknowns in our view for 2023. We are optimistic though. I'd say what we see right now is encouraging, but it's been a long road in China over the last couple of years that they've dealt with COVID, and so we want to make sure that we're cautiously optimistic before we get overly optimistic.

我認為庫存狀況非常適合該市場反彈。但最終，這是我們認為 2023 年更大的未知數之一。不過我們很樂觀。我想說我們現在所看到的是令人鼓舞的，但在過去的幾年裡，中國在處理 COVID 方面走了很長一段路，所以我們想確保在我們得到之前保持謹慎樂觀過於樂觀。

Okay. And if I could maybe ask one more. Just on G&A in the quarter. I think, John, you called out the $25 million incremental from some of the processing constraints I think that's related to. Can you just talk about if there was other sort of onetime items in SG&A this quarter? And then if we think about Q1, it sounds like there's still some constraints that might continue to impact SG&A. If you could just talk about those, that would be helpful as well.

好的。如果我可以再問一個。僅在本季度的 G&A 上。我想，約翰，你從我認為與之相關的一些處理限制中提出了 2500 萬美元的增量。您能否談談本季度 SG&A 中是否還有其他類型的一次性項目？然後，如果我們考慮第一季度，聽起來仍有一些限制可能會繼續影響 SG&A。如果你能談談這些，那也會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean the most significant item, Jay, as you identified, was the challenges that we've continued to have to battle from a network congestion perspective. And I think it's important to know that, that's not just Skechers distribution centers that are having challenges. We're seeing that those challenges exist downstream as well. And then unfortunately, that causes a backup into our own distribution centers that we have to deal with. So the most significant driver -- single driver was continuing, what I'd call, congestion-related costs similar to what we discussed in Q3. We did see a noticeable step down this quarter, which is, I think, a testimony to the comments both David and I made about seeing improved efficiencies in our network.

是的。我的意思是最重要的項目，傑伊，正如你所指出的那樣，是我們從網絡擁塞的角度繼續面臨的挑戰。而且我認為重要的是要知道，不僅僅是 Skechers 配送中心面臨挑戰。我們看到這些挑戰也存在於下游。然後不幸的是，這會導致備份到我們必須處理的我們自己的配送中心。因此，最重要的驅動因素——單一驅動因素仍在繼續，我稱之為與擁堵相關的成本，類似於我們在第三季度討論的內容。本季度我們確實看到了明顯的下降，我認為這證明了大衛和我關於看到我們網絡效率提高的評論。

The next most significant driver, quite frankly, in the G&A was volume related. That's obviously efforts that just attach themselves to our business operations when we see sales increases of the scale that we saw this quarter. We did put a little bit more into some media. That stayed flat as a percentage of sales, but it was a conscious effort to make sure we're bringing forward the comfort technology products that we're emphasizing right now. And I'm sure many of you have seen commercials out there for our new slip-ins, which are doing tremendous. So absent that, no, nothing really to note in the period that I would consider to be kind of outside the ordinary course.

坦率地說，G&A 中下一個最重要的驅動因素是數量相關。當我們看到本季度的銷售規模增長時，這顯然是我們的業務運營所付出的努力。我們確實在一些媒體上投入了更多。這佔銷售額的百分比持平，但這是一種有意識的努力，以確保我們推出我們現在強調的舒適技術產品。我相信你們中的許多人都看過我們新推出的便鞋的廣告，效果非常好。因此，如果沒有，不，在我認為屬於正常課程之外的那段時間裡，沒有什麼值得特別注意的。

And our next question is from Laurent Vasilescu with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Vasilescu。

Great to hear about the target for $10 billion still intact. I remember -- I recall, I think, John, that you were guiding for U.S. wholesale to grow at a mid-single-digit CAGR over that time period. Is that still the right framework as we think about long term? And then I think you made some comments about first half, second half. How do we think about U.S. wholesale for the year? And can we see first half like down mid- to high single digits? Any framework on that would be very helpful.

很高興聽到 100 億美元的目標仍然完好無損。我記得 - 我記得，我想，約翰，你指導美國批發在那個時期內以中個位數的複合年增長率增長。從長遠來看，這仍然是正確的框架嗎？然後我想你對上半場和下半場發表了一些評論。我們如何看待今年的美國批發？我們能看到上半年下降到中高個位數嗎？任何與此相關的框架都會非常有幫助。

Absolutely, Laurent. Yes. I would first say as well, though, that the $10 billion goal for us is still imminently achievable. Now we feel very good about where we sit as a brand, the strength of our product portfolio. What we're seeing across the broad swath of where we operate in the world today. I mean I think it's noteworthy that we saw growth pretty much across the board, certainly in all channels, but for those that continue to be impacted by COVID.

當然，洛朗。是的。不過，我首先要說的是，我們的 100 億美元目標仍然可以實現。現在，我們對我們作為一個品牌所處的位置以及我們產品組合的實力感到非常滿意。我們在當今世界開展業務的廣泛領域中所看到的。我的意思是我認為值得注意的是，我們看到了幾乎所有渠道的增長，當然是在所有渠道，但對於那些繼續受到 COVID 影響的渠道。

Relative to the domestic wholesale, this is going to be really, I think, a year of -- kind of 2 different periods, the first half and the back half. The first half is looking like at the moment that it's going to continue to suffer from the challenges of elevated inventory downstream. And I think is important to note about that is we're still seeing very strong results for the Skechers brand throughout our network in our own stores and in our partner stores. So this really is not a question in our view about Skechers product building up. It's really, quite frankly, the impact of the broader inventory congestion that's being felt downstream.

相對於國內批發，我認為這真的是一年 - 有兩個不同的時期，上半年和後半年。上半年看起來將繼續受到下游庫存增加的挑戰。我認為值得注意的是，在我們自己的商店和合作夥伴商店的整個網絡中，我們仍然看到 Skechers 品牌取得了非常強勁的業績。所以在我們看來，這真的不是關於 Skechers 產品構建的問題。坦率地說，這是下游感受到的更廣泛的庫存擁堵的影響。

That is -- as we've noted in a couple of quarters ago, that has been impacting order behavior for the first half of the year. I really think once we get clear of that, the door quite openly opens for us to return to growth on the domestic wholesale side, and we're optimistic about that in part because of the great product lineup we have coming. I think that also then adds to our faith in that long-term guide that we've always provided, which is kind of a mid-single-digit domestic wholesale. Now we've been beating that pretty handsomely over the last couple of years. So I would take that into consideration, you're going to have your ups and downs because nothing goes up in a straight line. But we're still very confident in that contribution to the $10 billion objective, which, again, I just double emphasize here, we still are very, very confident in our ability to achieve.

也就是說 - 正如我們在幾個季度前所指出的那樣，這一直在影響今年上半年的訂單行為。我真的認為，一旦我們弄清楚了這一點，就會為我們在國內批發方面恢復增長敞開大門，我們對此持樂觀態度，部分原因是我們即將推出的優秀產品陣容。我認為這也增加了我們對我們一直提供的長期指南的信心，這是一種中個位數的國內批發。現在，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在擊敗它。所以我會考慮到這一點，你會經歷起伏，因為沒有什麼是直線上升的。但我們對實現 100 億美元目標的貢獻仍然非常有信心，我在這裡再次強調，我們仍然對我們實現的能力非常、非常有信心。

Very helpful. And then piggybacking off of some of Jay's questions on margins. John, can you maybe kind of quantify how much freight -- ocean freight contracts, just all of it, just how much of a press reporting was for the full year FY '22? Was it -- can we assume like 300 basis points of gross margin pressure? And if that's the case, how much do we -- should we expect to recapture?

很有幫助。然後順帶回答 Jay 關於邊距的一些問題。約翰，你能不能量化一下有多少貨運——海運合同，只是全部，22 財年全年的新聞報導有多少？是——我們可以假設 300 個基點的毛利率壓力嗎？如果是這樣的話，我們應該期望奪回多少？

And then on the SG&A line, I appreciate that you gave us the $25 million incremental distribution cost there. So in aggregate, it was $75 million for the second half. I understand you're going to have a little bit more in the first half of this year. But net-net, should we assume it's like about $60 million lapping as we think about FY '23 SG&A?

然後在 SG&A 線上，我很感激你在那裡給了我們 2500 萬美元的增量分銷成本。因此，下半年總計為 7500 萬美元。我知道你今年上半年會多一點。但是，當我們考慮 FY '23 SG&A 時，我們是否應該假設這大約是 6000 萬美元？

A 3-part question there, Laurent. On the freight side, what I would probably give you as the best indicator is when you take everything together, and it's not just ocean freight although the -- obviously, is the biggest piece. The year-over-year decline in gross margin is nearly entirely the result of that and more because we did put in pricing. I mean, of note this quarter, we improved the gross margin, I think, by about 140 basis points, which is a very strong result and that reflects some of the pricing that we've been talking to.

一個由三部分組成的問題，Laurent。在貨運方面，我可能會給你的最好指標是當你把所有東西放在一起時，這不僅僅是海運，儘管 - 顯然，這是最大的一部分。毛利率的同比下降幾乎完全是因為我們確實進行了定價。我的意思是，值得注意的是本季度，我們將毛利率提高了大約 140 個基點，這是一個非常強勁的結果，反映了我們一直在討論的一些定價。

We didn't get all the way to match prior year. That was a bit of a mix shift, quite frankly, and some delayed shipments that occurred because of the congestion we've spoken about, but we grew gross margin quarter-over-quarter. And I think that's a good testimony to the actions we had taken that we had spoken about. But when you think about freight and logistics last year and what that -- the toll that took on our business, you need to look no further than kind of the gross margin differential and understanding that we did mitigate a lot of that over the course of the time period. So obviously, gross margins would have been down further had it not been for the actions we took.

我們並沒有完全達到去年的水平。坦率地說，這是一個混合轉變，並且由於我們談到的擁堵而發生了一些延遲的發貨，但我們的毛利率環比增長。我認為這很好地證明了我們所談到的已採取的行動。但是，當你考慮去年的貨運和物流以及它給我們的業務帶來的損失時，你只需看看毛利率差異，並了解我們在整個過程中確實減輕了很多時間段。很明顯，如果不是我們採取的行動，毛利率會進一步下降。

On the congestion cost, it's difficult to get a precise quantification because a lot of that is going to depend on factors outside of our control. We mentioned that a lot of the congestion we're seeing now is actually downstream. It's not in our own distribution centers. It's our ability to ship on because others are having a similar congestion-related issue. So it's somewhat contingent upon that. We do think year-over -- sorry, quarter-over-quarter continues to be a lesser number. How far below this quarter's $25 million is something we'll have to watch carefully. But we see it declining over the course of Q1 and Q2, hopefully gone by Q3.

關於擁堵成本，很難得到精確的量化，因為其中很多將取決於我們無法控制的因素。我們提到，我們現在看到的很多擁塞實際上是在下游。它不在我們自己的配送中心。這是我們繼續運送的能力，因為其他人也有類似的擁堵相關問題。所以這在某種程度上取決於這一點。我們確實認為同比 - 抱歉，季度環比仍然是一個較小的數字。我們必須仔細觀察低於本季度 2500 萬美元的水平。但我們看到它在第一季度和第二季度下降，希望在第三季度消失。

The last note I'll just give you though is although you are right in quantifying the second half amount. We would estimate that the full year charges we incurred because of congestion is actually closer to $90 million, all in. So we had mentioned previously, there were some costs in Q2. We just hadn't considered calling those out then. But when you look back on the full year, there's close to $90 million of costs that we would attribute to this congestion that have been working their way in the P&L for a while.

我要給你的最後一點是，儘管你對後半部分的量化是正確的。我們估計，由於交通擁堵而產生的全年費用實際上接近 9000 萬美元。所以我們之前提到過，第二季度有一些成本。那時我們只是沒有考慮把它們叫出來。但是當你回顧全年時，我們將近 9000 萬美元的成本歸因於這種擁堵，這種擁堵已經在損益表中發揮作用了一段時間。

That's super helpful, John. And maybe if I can squeeze one India question for you, David. You talked about Mumbai, D.C. up and running. Can you just maybe give us some guardrails or just how big India is? Is it like a $200 million business? And do you think we can get to a -- can it become a $1 billion opportunity within that $10 billion framework? Or is it beyond that?

這非常有幫助，約翰。也許我可以為你提出一個印度問題，戴維。您談到了孟買特區的啟動和運行。你能不能給我們一些護欄或者印度有多大？它像一個 2 億美元的企業嗎？你認為我們能否在 100 億美元的框架內成為一個 10 億美元的機會？還是不止於此？

I think it can get beyond that. We're only scratching the surface. The brand is very well recognized and being accepted there. And it's only a matter of getting everything up and running. And we're looking to do production also in India. India is a very protective marketplace. So we have to move more things in there than we've had before. When we went to China, it was obviously a big marketplace. We already had production in China to a significant degree. We're starting to move some production into China. That's both apparel and footwear. We're building our infrastructure. Without giving away too much information, your numbers are pretty close for where it is now. They're a little higher and $1 billion is certainly depending on what your time frame is within our sights.

我認為它可以超越這一點。我們只是觸及表面。該品牌在那裡得到了很好的認可和接受。這只是讓一切正常運行的問題。我們也希望在印度進行生產。印度是一個保護性很強的市場。所以我們必須把比以前更多的東西搬進去。當我們去中國時，那顯然是一個大市場。我們已經在中國進行了很大程度的生產。我們開始將一些生產轉移到中國。這是服裝和鞋類。我們正在建設我們的基礎設施。在不透露太多信息的情況下，您的數字與現在的數字非常接近。他們稍微高一點，10 億美元當然取決於您在我們的視野中的時間框架。

So we do well there both from a wholesale basis. We have third-party partners there that are terrific that we use and continue to grow, and we use a franchise model and our own wholesale. And now we're putting in our own e-commerce, while they've had it, we're putting our own platforms in. So we still have a lot of work to do, but there's a lot of open road there.

所以我們在批發的基礎上都做得很好。我們在那裡有非常棒的第三方合作夥伴，我們使用並繼續發展，我們使用特許經營模式和我們自己的批發。現在我們正在投入我們自己的電子商務，而他們已經有了，我們正在投入我們自己的平台。所以我們還有很多工作要做，但那裡有很多開放的道路。

And our next question is from John Kernan with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 John Kernan。

John, can you give us detail just on the sequencing of gross margin this year between expansion in the back half, potential contraction in the front half? Is there any magnitude you can give us in terms of how cost of goods sold and gross profit should flow throughout the year?

約翰，您能否詳細說明今年毛利率在後半部分擴張與前半部分可能收縮之間的順序？關於全年的銷售成本和毛利潤應該如何流動，您能告訴我們多少嗎？

Well, I mean, in part is dependent upon how quickly we deplete the inventory we have. What I would say is if you kind of take the halves of the year, you would definitely expect the first half to be materially lower from a gross margin perspective than the back half of the year. There's always mix in there and business mix as well as concentration within direct-to-consumer that kind of gets in the way of getting a pure look. But what I would tell you is we definitely anticipate that the back half of the year is when we'll start to enjoy the benefits provided our plan holds.

好吧，我的意思是，部分取決於我們耗盡庫存的速度。我要說的是，如果你把今年的下半年看一下，從毛利率的角度來看，你肯定會預計上半年會比下半年低很多。那裡總是混合在一起，業務混合以及直接面向消費者的集中度阻礙了獲得純粹外觀的方式。但我要告訴你的是，我們絕對預計今年下半年我們將開始享受我們的計劃所提供的福利。

So I think you can expect from a -- if I take it back to kind of 2021 before we had as much of the impact, you should see some marked improvements from those certainly in the back half of the year to start to accentuate the value of what we lost in freight and other logistics-related costs over the course of 2022. And I guess just to harp on that just for a second. I mean this really -- this year will really become, again, a tale of 2 halves. The first half is where we're seeing the challenges. The second half is where we see a ton of opportunity. I would tell you, our guide attempts to sufficiently incorporate the challenges we foresee in the first half and probably leaves open opportunity on the back half because we have the visibility into bookings and activity yet. We don't know how COVID is going to unfold, but that's how we try to position the year so that once we get through the first couple of quarters, which we've already started on, we'll get a much better insight into how the year is going to unfold, but we do see abundant opportunity there.

所以我認為你可以期待 - 如果我把它追溯到 2021 年之前我們產生了那麼大的影響，你應該會看到一些明顯的改進，肯定會在今年下半年開始強調價值我們在 2022 年期間在運費和其他物流相關成本方面損失了多少。我想只是想多說幾句。我的意思是，今年真的會再次成為兩半的故事。上半年是我們看到挑戰的地方。下半場是我們看到大量機會的地方。我會告訴你，我們的指南試圖充分結合我們在上半年預見到的挑戰，並可能在後半部分留下開放的機會，因為我們還可以了解預訂和活動。我們不知道 COVID 將如何發展，但這就是我們嘗試定位這一年的方式，這樣一旦我們度過了已經開始的前幾個季度，我們就會更好地了解今年將如何展開，但我們確實看到了很多機會。

Got it. Maybe just a quick follow-up on that. The gross margin in the first half of the year, could it be down year-over-year? And then most of the recovery -- the increase in gross margin starts to fall in the back half of the year?

知道了。也許只是對此的快速跟進。上半年毛利率，會不會同比下降？然後大部分複蘇——毛利率的增長在今年下半年開始下降？

No, I wouldn't expect it down versus '22. '22 was -- sorry for the color, but it's just a terrible gross margin here. I mean no fault of ours. I think everybody saw the impact of the highest freight rates we've ever seen by a factor of 5, logistics costs, backups and everything. So we certainly have no cation that year-on-year, we would see declines in any period, but it gets better as the year goes on.

不，我不希望它低於 22 年。 '22 是——對顏色感到抱歉，但這只是一個可怕的毛利率。我的意思是我們沒有錯。我認為每個人都看到了我們所見過的最高運費 5 倍的影響、物流成本、備份和一切。所以我們當然沒有那個同比的陽離子，我們會看到任何時期的下降，但隨著時間的推移它會變得更好。

Got it. My follow-up is just on Q1 top line guidance. Could you talk to channel and geography in terms of any expectations you can give us, obviously, domestic wholesale has an incredibly difficult comparison. But wondering if there's any other detail you can give us to get to that sales guidance range?

知道了。我的後續行動只是關於第一季度的頂線指導。您能否就您能給我們的任何期望談談渠道和地理，顯然，國內批發有一個非常困難的比較。但是想知道您是否可以提供任何其他詳細信息以達到該銷售指導範圍？

Yes, again, and not the heart of my theme, but obviously, you can see where our speaking notes went to. It's really China and domestic wholesale in the first half, providing the headwind. We think the balance of the markets we're in will continue to perform very, very well. Direct-to-consumer has definitely started off strong. I think as David noted in his prepared remarks, so we're very encouraged by what we see there. And you do rightly point out, if we recollect back to 2022, Q1 was with a year -- with a quarter where a lot of catch-up shipped in the period from the inventory stagnation of the port here. So it's really domestic wholesale in China in the first quarter, offset by good, solid continuing performance elsewhere.

是的，再次強調，這不是我主題的核心，但很明顯，你可以看到我們的演講筆記去了哪裡。上半年確實是中國和國內批發，提供了逆風。我們認為我們所處市場的平衡將繼續表現得非常非常好。直接面向消費者的方式無疑已經開始強勁。我認為正如 David 在他準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我們對在那裡看到的內容感到非常鼓舞。你確實正確地指出，如果我們回想起 2022 年，第一季度是一年 - 有一個季度，由於這裡港口的庫存停滯，在此期間有大量追趕。因此，第一季度實際上是中國的國內批發，被其他地方良好、穩固的持續表現所抵消。

There's certainly opportunity to outperform those 2 challenging markets, but it's going to be something that we're going to have to see as the period unfolds because of the known challenges there.

肯定有機會超越這兩個具有挑戰性的市場，但由於那裡已知的挑戰，隨著時間的推移，我們將不得不看到這一點。

And our next question is from Gaby Carbone with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Gaby Carbone。

So kind of just bigger picture. I wonder if you can just talk about how you view Skechers' ability to get back to 2019 operating margin over time? Kind of where do you still see the biggest opportunities within the business and maybe the biggest risk just considering the macro environment and the uncertainty there?

所以有點大局觀。我想知道您是否可以談談您如何看待 Skechers 隨著時間的推移恢復到 2019 年營業利潤率的能力？考慮到宏觀環境和那裡的不確定性，您仍然在哪裡看到業務中最大的機會以及最大的風險？

Yes. I don't mean for this to sound tried Gaby, but it's really 2 things. Our margins are going to -- gross margins are going to build back because of the absence of the extraordinary freight and logistics costs, and we're going to get our distribution network back to what we would consider to be normalized efficiency. If those 2 things happen, that's -- those are going to be the biggest contributors to success.

是的。我並不是說這聽起來像是 Gaby 嘗試過的，但這確實是兩件事。我們的利潤率將——由於沒有額外的運費和物流成本，毛利率將恢復，我們將使我們的分銷網絡恢復到我們認為的正常效率。如果發生這兩件事，那就是——它們將成為成功的最大貢獻者。

I think the potential risks to that are continuing COVID challenges across the globe. Obviously, we've spoken about China already, but what we've seen the nature of this condition is that it kind of travels across the globe. So if there's an impact out there to be had, that could be a headwind. And then obviously, we don't see any signs in what we monitor and certainly not in our own brand performance that we monitor of a forthcoming macroeconomic recession, but that's obviously a possibility. And I think if that occurs, we still have a lot of tools in our tool belt to use to protect margins, but that would certainly be kind of the 2 biggest risks I see.

我認為潛在的風險是全球範圍內持續的 COVID 挑戰。顯然，我們已經談到了中國，但我們已經看到這種情況的本質是它在全球範圍內傳播。因此，如果要產生影響，那可能是不利因素。然後很明顯，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明我們監控的內容，當然也沒有看到我們監控即將到來的宏觀經濟衰退的我們自己的品牌表現，但這顯然是有可能的。而且我認為如果發生這種情況，我們的工具帶中仍然有很多工具可以用來保護利潤，但這肯定是我看到的兩個最大的風險。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up. Just wondering if you can provide a bit more color around the composition of your inventory. It does seem like levels are much improved on a year-over-year basis versus the end of 3Q. But are there any areas in channels and regions where you still feel a bit more over inventory than you would like to be?

知道了。并快速跟進。只是想知道您是否可以圍繞您的庫存構成提供更多顏色。與第三季度末相比，水平似乎同比有了很大改善。但是，在渠道和區域中是否有任何區域您仍然覺得庫存比您希望的要多一些？

Yes. I mean I would first point out as we noted, the U.S. quarter-over-quarter was down, and that's where we previously had some of the bigger challenges. We did see a little bit of a shift of the issues in the U.S. kind of like a contingent kind of made their way overseas into Europe a little bit. I think we're getting beyond that much faster than we did in the U.S.

是的。我的意思是，我首先要指出的是，正如我們指出的那樣，美國的季度環比下降了，而這正是我們之前面臨一些更大挑戰的地方。我們確實看到了美國問題的一點點轉變，有點像某種偶然的情況從海外進入歐洲。我認為我們超越這一點的速度比美國快得多

So I think that's incredibly important. I would note in contrast to last year, we're seeing significantly less inventory in transit, which is good because that gives us the ability to deal with the inventory. Obviously, we're still sitting on some inventory. We'd like to ship on to customers for which they have orders that the integrity of which we feel really good about. But until they clear their own congestion in their own distribution networks, it's tough for us to have the opportunity to do that.

所以我認為這非常重要。我要指出的是，與去年相比，我們看到在途庫存明顯減少，這很好，因為這使我們能夠處理庫存。顯然，我們仍然有一些庫存。我們希望將訂單運送給他們的客戶，而我們對這些訂單的完整性感到非常滿意。但在他們清除自己的分銷網絡中的擁塞之前，我們很難有機會這樣做。

But again, I think we're seeing encouraging signs. We think a flattish inventory quarter-over-quarter is a very good sign. China reopening is a very good sign. We just need to work through where we're at. And that we believe, again, is probably a first half of the year activity.

但同樣，我認為我們看到了令人鼓舞的跡象。我們認為季度庫存持平是一個非常好的跡象。中國重新開放是一個很好的跡象。我們只需要完成我們所處的位置。我們再次相信，這可能是今年上半年的活動。

And our next question is from Jim Duffy with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jim Duffy。

I wanted to start building on Gaby's question on the inventory. Can you speak to how you see the glide path for inventory normalization? And you mentioned perhaps in some recessionary signals. With respect to the inventory, how are you planning receipts on a go-forward basis?

我想開始構建 Gaby 關於清單的問題。您能談談您如何看待庫存正常化的下滑路徑嗎？你可能在一些衰退信號中提到過。關於庫存，您如何計劃未來的收貨？

Yes, I think it's fair to say receipts will slow down. I think in taking the question a draw further to John's point, we were down in the U.S. It's growing internationally. It grew primarily in EMEA, where we had a very strong January because of demand. We had a lot of movement from fourth quarter into first quarter this year because of the backup that happened to some of our consumer base.

是的，我認為可以公平地說收據會放緩。我認為，如果將這個問題進一步引向 John 的觀點，我們在美國的表現不佳。它在國際上正在增長。它主要在歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長，由於需求，我們在 1 月份表現非常強勁。由於我們的一些消費者群體發生了備份，我們從第四季度到今年第一季度有很多變動。

And I think it shows well for some of our operating margins as well. If you think about it, we had a catch up on our stores. The fact that our stores are now full and we've utilized all the cost and filling them up. So shipping them significantly more pairs than they were selling, starting probably in the middle of the second quarter through probably the middle of the fourth quarter, we're now current.

我認為這對我們的一些營業利潤率也有很好的影響。如果您考慮一下，我們趕上了我們的商店。事實上，我們的商店現在已經滿了，我們已經利用了所有的成本來裝滿它們。因此，從第二季度中旬到第四季度中旬，運送的數量遠遠超過銷售量，我們現在是最新的。

So we will have less cost to supply our own stores throughout the first half of the year, and they're doing quite well than we had in the middle of last year. We now have a significant amount of inventory. Basically, what happened last year was a lot of what people thought was going to be delayed and get later and they wanted to increase their purchasing. We now have -- we're helping our customer base both domestically and internationally as best as we can.

因此，我們將在今年上半年以更低的成本供應我們自己的商店，而且他們的表現比我們去年年中的情況要好。我們現在有大量庫存。基本上，去年發生的很多事情都是人們認為會被推遲和推遲的，他們想增加購買量。我們現在已經 - 我們正在盡我們所能幫助我們的國內和國際客戶群。

But we've already paid for all the receipts. We've already gone out of our way to increase the size of our distribution centers so we can hold that. And that cost is already behind us as we fill these orders, it's only a shipping piece. So as wholesale continues to grow and we ship less per week to our retail stores, we'll gain much more efficiency certainly from a financial perspective in the first quarter and going into the first half.

但是我們已經支付了所有的收據。我們已經竭盡全力增加我們的配送中心的規模，以便我們能夠保持這一點。當我們完成這些訂單時，這筆費用已經過去了，這只是一件運費。因此，隨著批發業務的持續增長，我們每周向零售店發貨的數量減少，從財務角度來看，我們在第一季度和上半年肯定會獲得更高的效率。

I'd also like to point out some of the inventory build is normal just from the movement and the change in our business. By and large, our own retail sits on inventory significantly longer than our wholesale partners. They -- we tend to turn wholesale much quicker. We're on a flow with them. We run our flows through, obviously, because of direct-to-consumer. We carry more in our stores and the more stores and the bigger they become, the more we carry so that there's a bigger carry piece in it.

我還想指出一些庫存增加是正常的，只是因為我們業務的變動和變化。總的來說，我們自己的零售庫存比我們的批發合作夥伴要長得多。他們——我們傾向於更快地轉向批發。我們和他們在一起。顯然，由於直接面向消費者，我們運行我們的流程。我們在我們的商店裡攜帶更多，商店越多，它們變得越大，我們攜帶的越多，所以里面有一個更大的攜帶件。

So we're looking much better. And we've gotten the inventory early and our receipts are slowing down. So it builds for more efficiencies and more continued sales. I think it's pretty normal that domestic wholesale had a tougher January than our own stores would indicate simply because they took a lot of product in the last quarter of last year coming into this year. And we don't have no overlap of stuff that was shipped in January as opposed to December.

所以我們看起來好多了。而且我們提前拿到了庫存，我們的收貨速度正在放緩。因此，它可以提高效率和持續銷售。我認為國內批發一月份比我們自己的商店所表明的更艱難是很正常的，這僅僅是因為他們在去年最後一個季度進貨了很多產品進入今年。與 12 月相比，我們在 1 月發貨的東西沒有重疊。

The end of January and the first couple of days of February have shown significant increases also in our wholesale deliveries. So everything we see is moving in the right direction and the timing of what we're holding and how it gets to be billable or invoice as it moves out is looking more and more solid as we move into the back half of the first quarter and into the second quarter.

1 月底和 2 月的前幾天，我們的批發交貨量也顯著增加。因此，我們看到的一切都在朝著正確的方向發展，隨著我們進入第一季度的後半部分，我們持有的時間以及它在搬出時如何計費或開具發票看起來越來越穩固進入第二季度。

I wanted to dig in some on the comments on the domestic wholesale situation. Of course, there are difficult compares with Q1 a year ago. But I'm curious that backup, which you speak to of inventory in the channel, is that concentrated with any specific channels or key channel partners? Or is it widespread across your U.S. wholesale base? .

我想挖掘一些關於國內批發情況的評論。當然，與一年前的Q1相比，有困難。但我很好奇你所說的渠道庫存備份是否集中在任何特定渠道或關鍵渠道合作夥伴？還是它在您的美國批發基地普遍存在？ .

Some are obviously worse than others, and we want to talk about specifics. But by and large, everybody took a significant amount of inventory, not necessarily Skechers. Our own inventory, we've cleaned up. So some customers like us ahead of the curve as we are which is why I think our direct-to-consumer will show so strong in January, but everybody is working through it. January, while everybody is showing some increases, we saw some increase, it's not the strongest month, it's a closed out month, it's transition for product. I think as we got through January, which was the toughest comparison for us from year-over-year in the first quarter and why there's going to be pressure on the quarter simply because last year, everything just opened up, and it went into empty shelves. So it really did create quite a distortion.

有些明顯比其他的差，我們想談談具體情況。但總的來說，每個人都持有大量存貨，不一定是 Skechers。我們自己的庫存，我們已經清理乾淨了。因此，一些客戶喜歡我們領先於曲線，這就是為什麼我認為我們的直接面向消費者將在 1 月份表現如此強勁，但每個人都在努力解決這個問題。一月份，雖然每個人都在顯示一些增長，但我們看到了一些增長，這不是最強勁的月份，這是一個封閉的月份，它是產品的過渡期。我認為當我們度過 1 月份時，這對我們來說是第一季度與去年同期相比最艱難的比較，為什麼這個季度會有壓力，僅僅是因為去年，一切都剛剛開放，然後就變成了空無一物貨架。所以它確實造成了相當大的失真。

But I think you won't see the same thing to the same order of magnitude for the balance of the quarter. We just won't catch the first month, but everything is cleaning out, everything is starting. And as we get to new seasonal goods, we find a lot of our customers are starting to get online now to even take more for January, February and getting ready. So if weather doesn't change the sales pattern, we should see that for the most part of February going into March.

但我認為對於本季度的餘額，您不會看到相同數量級的相同情況。我們只是趕不上第一個月，但一切都在清理，一切都在開始。當我們獲得新的季節性商品時，我們發現很多客戶現在開始上網，甚至在 1 月、2 月購買更多商品並做好準備。因此，如果天氣不改變銷售模式，我們應該會看到 2 月的大部分時間進入 3 月。

And our next question is from Rick Patel with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rick Patel 和 Raymond James。

You talked about the wholesale dynamic between the first and second half, but what's the right way to think about units versus price? Because I believe you're taking pricing in wholesale. So I'm just curious if you can contextualize what the pricing tailwind might be that we see in the first half that could help to offset some of the pressure on the unit side? And also as a follow-up, whether you expect to take additional pricing action as we think about the new year as a whole?

您談到了上半年和下半年之間的批發動態，但是考慮單位與價格的正確方法是什麼？因為我相信你在批發定價。所以我很好奇你是否可以將我們在上半年看到的定價順風可能有助於抵消單位方面的一些壓力？另外作為後續行動，您是否希望在我們考慮整個新年時採取額外的定價行動？

Yes. I mean -- so we won't talk about the pricing increases that we had announced previously, but we're waiting to materialize. You saw that in the gross margin performance this quarter, kind of quarter-over-quarter being up, those benefits will continue near to our P&L particularly over the first couple of quarters.

是的。我的意思是 - 所以我們不會談論我們之前宣布的價格上漲，但我們正在等待實現。你看到在本季度的毛利率表現中，有點環比上升，這些好處將繼續接近我們的損益表，特別是在前幾個季度。

So a lot of what you're seeing kind of to the commentary David just provided is a unit issue, and that speaks to congestion. So there's nothing in -- we see the envelope of pricing action that's actually going to change the dynamic. No matter what price we sell, if they can't take the goods from a physical congestion perspective, they can't take the goods. So that should help, and that is part of what will continue to help support our gross margins certainly in the first half of the year. But in the domestic wholesale marketplace in particular, it's mostly a units-driven headwind.

因此，您在 David 剛剛提供的評論中看到的很多內容都是單位問題，這說明了擁塞。所以沒有什麼——我們看到定價行動的範圍實際上會改變動態。不管我們賣什麼價錢，如果他們從物理擁堵的角度拿不走貨，他們就拿不走貨。所以這應該有所幫助，這肯定會在今年上半年繼續幫助支持我們的毛利率。但尤其是在國內批發市場，這主要是單位驅動的逆風。

And as we think about the back half, what do you see is driving the recovery in the wholesale channel? Does that -- I'm curious like, is it inventory just being in better shape and your customers returning to a more normal cadence of taking in product? Or do you have innovation or demand creation in the pipeline that you think gets better traction in the back half?

當我們考慮後半部分時，您認為推動批發渠道復甦的因素是什麼？這是否 - 我很好奇，它是否只是處於更好的狀態並且您的客戶恢復到更正常的產品接收節奏？或者您認為在後半部分獲得更好牽引力的管道中是否有創新或需求創造？

Well, Rick, you could not tease us up any better than that. I mean the answer ultimately is both. There's definitely -- I said a lot of this is congestion, congestion gets resolved and then product will flow. And to David's commentary, we're already seeing a little bit of that loosen up, which is an encouraging sign. But we also have, obviously, some continuing product introduction activity that's going to, I think, really propel where the market goes for Skechers in the back half of the year, most notably our slip-in products. that's really when they begin to hit in full force in the market. Early indications have been nothing but incredibly strong from a consumer perspective. So those will start to hit. But I would also point out, a lot of our other comfort features continue to perform really well. Arch Fit continues to be a very solid franchise for us.

好吧，瑞克，你沒有比這更好的取笑我們了。我的意思是答案最終是兩者兼而有之。肯定有 - 我說過很多都是擁塞，擁塞得到解決，然後產品就會流動。對於大衛的評論，我們已經看到了一點點放鬆，這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象。但顯然，我們也有一些持續的產品推出活動，我認為，這將在今年下半年真正推動 Skechers 的市場走向，最顯著的是我們的滑入式產品。那是他們真正開始全力衝擊市場的時候。從消費者的角度來看，早期跡像不過是非常強烈。所以那些將開始受到打擊。但我還要指出，我們的許多其他舒適功能繼續表現得非常好。 Arch Fit 對我們來說仍然是一個非常穩固的特許經營權。

So to answer your question, cleanly, it's both. We're going to see less congestion and that's going to help things. We're going to see the product really take hold. And you're going to see us also get behind that from a marketing perspective. So that'll also be a propellant in kind of the back half of the year.

因此，要乾淨利落地回答您的問題，兩者都是。我們將看到更少的擁堵，這將有所幫助。我們將看到產品真正站穩腳跟。你會看到我們也從營銷的角度支持這一點。因此，這也將成為今年下半年的一種推進劑。

And our next question is from Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alex Straton。

Great. I know in the last year, we've talked a lot about shelf-space opportunities for Skechers as peers have pulled back from wholesale and shifted into DTC. I know now that's a little bit bundled just with so many being over inventory and now kind of reverting back to wholesale. So is there anything you can provide us or any observations as it relates to the competitive dynamic and how you're thinking about shelf-space opportunities now?

偉大的。我知道在去年，我們就 Skechers 的貨架空間機會談了很多，因為同行已經退出批發並轉向 DTC。我現在知道這有點與這麼多庫存過剩捆綁在一起，現在有點恢復批發。那麼，您是否可以向我們提供任何與競爭動態相關的觀察結果，以及您現在如何考慮貨架空間機會？

I would tell you, from our perspective, we haven't seen a significant change. Again, the major issue, as we've already, I think, beating the dead on this is it's a supply chain and logistics issue. We haven't seen a dramatic turnaround and approach from any of the brands that have previously been out of an account going into an account. So there's really -- from our perspective, there's still abundant opportunity to take more shelf space to bring more product forward to bring some of our new innovation for our slip-in technology, Arch Fit, et cetera. .

我會告訴你，從我們的角度來看，我們沒有看到重大變化。同樣，我認為，主要問題是我們已經解決了這個問題，這是一個供應鍊和物流問題。我們還沒有看到任何以前從帳戶中轉入帳戶的品牌出現戲劇性的轉變和方法。所以真的 - 從我們的角度來看，仍然有很多機會佔用更多的貨架空間來推出更多產品，為我們的滑入式技術 Arch Fit 等帶來一些新的創新。 .

So we still feel very good about those opportunities. Again, the biggest headwind that we continue to face is kind of on the logistics side, pure physical logistics. I would also just note because we watch the sell-through rates we see at our accounts, and we measure those against last year, a normalized year of 2019 and the metrics there continue to be very positive for the brand.

所以我們仍然對這些機會感覺很好。同樣，我們繼續面臨的最大逆風是在物流方面，純物理物流。我還要指出的是，因為我們觀察了我們在賬戶中看到的銷售率，並且我們將這些銷售率與去年（正常化的 2019 年）進行了比較，那裡的指標對品牌來說仍然非常積極。

Great. That's super helpful. Maybe just one more quick one. Can you just help me understand -- I want to make sure I'm understanding your wholesale order book commentary and how it relates to the guide because it feels like you're building in this ramp in the back half. So does that mean you've seen kind of the order book improve in the back half? Or is there still maybe some caution you're observing similar to the first half? I just want to make sure I have that right.

偉大的。這非常有幫助。也許只是一個更快的。你能幫我理解嗎——我想確保我理解你的批發訂單評論以及它與指南的關係，因為感覺就像你在後半部分的斜坡上建造。那麼這是否意味著您已經看到後半部分的訂單有所改善？或者你是否仍然觀察到類似於上半年的一些警告？我只是想確保我有那個權利。

I would say that relative to last year and probably the year before, we've seen and actually quite frankly, we've solicited less long-term bookings. I think that's part of the reason, quite frankly, we got into the situation as an industry, we did with the shipments all coming in the last couple of quarters. With the normalization of kind of the production cycle and the transit cycle, we've been able to pull booking windows back to a more normalized sense. So as we sit here today, we have really good visibility into the first couple of quarters. But just because of the order cycles haven't yet triggered, we're not at a point where we have a ton of bookings for Q3 or Q4, which is entirely normal. So there, obviously, we're giving our best guess.

我想說的是，相對於去年和前一年，我們已經看到並且坦率地說，我們徵求了更少的長期預訂。我認為這是部分原因，坦率地說，我們作為一個行業進入了這種情況，我們對過去幾個季度的出貨量進行了處理。隨著生產週期和運輸週期的正常化，我們已經能夠將預訂窗口拉回到更正常的意義上。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對前幾個季度的了解非常好。但僅僅因為訂單週期尚未觸發，我們還沒有達到第三季度或第四季度大量預訂的地步，這是完全正常的。所以，很明顯，我們給出了最好的猜測。

I would say we certainly didn't feel the need to be overly aggressive relative to those expectations. We think they're measured, we think they're appropriate. But I wouldn't tell you today that we're sitting on this back half hockey stick on the domestic wholesale side because we want to see some of that evidenced in the bookings, and that's what will come over the next quarter or 1.5 quarters. So we're still waiting for a lot of that activity to come through. The indications we have had -- particularly for the product that will populate those order windows has been very strong. And so that's one of the evidentiary points we take and when we build that back half expectation. But ultimately, we'll have to wait and see how the bookings unfold. And as a result of that, we don't think, from our perspective, we've been overly aggressive in setting kind of those early indications of where we think, in particular, the domestic wholesale market going to come.

我想說的是，相對於這些期望，我們當然沒有必要過於激進。我們認為它們是經過衡量的，我們認為它們是合適的。但我今天不會告訴你我們正坐在國內批發方面的後半曲棍球棒上，因為我們希望看到預訂中的一些證據，而這將在下一個季度或 1.5 個季度出現。所以我們仍在等待很多這樣的活動通過。我們得到的跡象——特別是對於將填充這些訂單窗口的產品來說非常強烈。所以這是我們採取的證據點之一，當我們建立後半部分期望時。但最終，我們將不得不拭目以待，看看預訂情況如何展開。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們並不認為我們在設定我們認為的那些早期跡象方面過於激進，特別是國內批發市場將會到來。

There are no further questions at this time. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。