Tanger Inc (SKT) 2010 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning my name is Latoya, and I will be your conference operator today.

I would like to welcome everyone to the call.

I will l now turn the call over to Ms.

Mona Walsh, Director of Corporate Communications.

Thanks, Latoya.

Good morning, and welcome to Tanger Factory Outlet Center's first quarter 2010 conference call.

Please note that during this conference call some of management's comments will be forward-looking statements regarding the Company's property operations, leasing, tenant sales trends, development, acquisition, expansion and disposition activities, as well as their comments regarding the Company's funds from operations, funds available for distribution and dividends.

These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results could differ materially from those projected, due to factors including but not limited to, changes in economic and real estate conditions, the availability and cost of capital, the Company's ongoing ability to lease, develop and acquire properties, as well as potential tenant bankruptcies and competition.

We direct you to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties.

This call is being recorded for rebroadcast for a period of time in the future.

As such it is important to note that management's comments include time-sensitive information that may be accurate only as of today's date, April 28th, 2010.

At this time all participants are in listen-only mode.

Following management's prepared comments, the call will be opened up for your questions.

On the call today will be Steven Tanger, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Frank Marchisello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

I will now turn the call over to Steven Tanger.

Please go ahead, Steve.

Thank you Mona, and good morning everyone.

Our first quarter results came in strong with funds from operations increasing by 17.4%.

The retail sector is growing as we had anticipated when compared to last year.

Benefiting from strong March results and aided by the early Easter holiday shift, our tenant comparable sales for the rolling 12-months ended March 31, 2010 increased 3.1% to $342 per square foot.

Sales for the first quarter increased 10.3% compared to the first quarter of 2009.

We are pleased to announce on April 8th that our Board of Directors approved an increase in our annual cash dividend rate from $1.53 to $1.55 per share.

Our budget for 2010 currently anticipates year end funds available for distribution ratio in the mid-60% range.

That means our existing cash dividend is over 150% covered from operating cash flow, and that we do not use our lines of credit to fund our cash dividend.

We are very proud of the fact that we have raised our cash dividend in each of the 17 years since becoming a public company in 1993.

One of the reasons investors buy REIT stock and Tanger is the expectation of a total return, including a cash dividend.

I will now turn the call over to Frank, who will take you through our financial results for the quarter, and then I will follow with a summary of our operating performance, and our current expectations for the balance of 2010.

Thank you Steve, and good morning everyone.

Total funds from operations, or FFO, for the quarter ended March 31st, 2010 increased approximately 17.4% for the period.

FFO per share decreased approximately 4.5% to $0.63 per share, compared to $0.66 per share in the quarter ended March 31st, 2009.

The decrease in FFO per share was due to the issuance of 8.3 million additional common shares, associated with the two successful equity transactions completed during 2009.

More information on these transactions may be found in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2009.

On a consolidated basis our total market capitalization at March 31st 2010 was approximately $2.7 billion, and our debt to total market capitalization was approximately 21.9%.

We also maintained a strong interest coverage ratio of 4.82 times for the quarter.

As of March 31st, 2010 approximately 84% of our debt was at fixed rates.

Our only floating rate debt was the $93.4 million outstanding on our $325 million in unsecured lines of credit.

Our balance sheet strategy has always been conservative with a manageable debt maturity schedule.

At the end of the first quarter our wholly-owned portfolio of properties was 100% unencumbered, and we had no outstanding debt maturities until June of 2011.

Our FFO payout ratio for the first quarter was approximately 61% and our FAD payout ratio was about 65%.

At these levels our dividend is well-covered and we will generate incremental cash flow over our dividend, which we plan on using to help fund our new development in Mebane, North Carolina, and reduce amounts outstanding on our lines of credit.

I will now turn the call back over to Steve.

Go ahead, Steve.

Thank you, Frank.

I am pleased to report that so far this year we continue to see positive rent spreads on the renewal and releasing of space within our portfolio.

Our average cost of occupancy for 2009 was 8.5% of average tenant sales, which should provide us the opportunity to raise rental rates on the leasing and renewal of space in the near future.

We have already made good progress on our 2010 renewals throughout our wholly-owned portfolio.

As of the end of March, we obtained executed renewals and renewals in process for 705,000 square feet or about 47.5% of the space coming up for renewal during 2010, with an increase in average base rental rates on the executed renewals of 8.8%.

These results fall in line with what we had anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2009, with the potential for an uptick in leasing spreads in the second half of 2010.

In addition, during the first quarter we re-tenanted approximately 228,000 square feet, with an increase in average base rental rates of 22.5%.

Our low cost of occupancy and increasing sales allow us the opportunity to continue to drive up rents.

Combined re-tenanted and renewed rents are 12.4% higher than last year.

Same center NOI growth during the quarter was 0.7%, compared to 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Our overall occupancy rate for our wholly-owned stabilized properties was 94.8% at the end of the first quarter, compared to 93.5% last year.

In the first quarter of 2010, not a single tenant in our portfolio declared bankruptcy.

Reported tenant comparable sales within our wholly-owned portfolio increased 3.1% for the rolling 12-months, and in March 2010 to $342 per square foot.

Sales for the first quarter increased 10.3% compared to the first quarter of 2009.

As we had anticipated retail sales have come back, inventories are right sized, and the retail sector is growing when compared to last year.

First quarter sales also benefited from an early Easter holiday calendar shift.

Percentage rents, which are paid by tenants once their total sales exceed certain levels, represent less than 3% of our expected total returns, or total revenue during 2010.

Approximately 91% of our total revenues are expected to be derived from contractual base rents and tenant expense reimbursements.

In addition, no single tenant accounts for more than 8.4% of our gross leaseable area, or 5.3% of our base and percentage rents.

Most of our tenants have very strong balance sheets.

For almost 30 years, we have successfully developed factory outlet centers.

We are proud of our track record of delivering long term increasing value for our stakeholders.

In the last quarter of 2009 we began construction of our newest center to be located in Mebane, North Carolina.

The center is scheduled to open in time for the 2010 holiday season, and with the economy improving this timeline has encouraged our retail partners to proceed to sign leases now.

We currently have approximately 77% of the space either leased, or with leases out for signature.

Among the stores that will open at this outlet are a Banana Republic factory store, Saks Fifth Avenue On Fifth, Coach Factory Store, Levies, GAAP Outlet, J Crew, BCBG, Nike Factory Store, and Tommy Hilfiger, and many more.

Our expected initial return on cost is 10% to 10.5%.

Tenant interest continues to be strong, and additional leasing momentum is building for this fabulous site, located on the heavily traveled Interstate 85-40 corridor in North Carolina.

We are also in the process of building our shadow pipeline of potential new developments, should tenant demand continue to escalate.

We remain excited about the growth prospects of our industry.

Demolition has commenced to make way for the redevelopment of one of our two centers in Hilton Head, South Carolina.

Upon completion we will have turned what was a very shopper unfriendly center built in 1987, into a new shopper-centric outlet center, containing approximately 176,000 square feet, plus four restaurant land parcels facing the highway, two of which we have already obtained signed leases from major restaurants food users.

The demolition costs which will be expensed during 2010 amount to approximately $600,000, and the lost net operating income caused by the demolition, will amount to approximately $1.4 million.

Our expected $50 million investment will create the first LEED certified green shopping center in Beaufort County, South Carolina.

The new center is currently scheduled to open in the second half of 2011.

Earlier this year we were proud to announce that Tanger Outlets at the Arches in Deer Park, New York was certified as a LEED Silver Core and Shell project by the US Green Building Council.

This center is the largest and only retail center in the state of New York to achieve a LEED Silver certification for its Core and Shell development.

Recently the Tanger Outlet Center in San Marcos was named the Best Outlet Shopping Mall in Texas by Media World's, USA's Official Best of Texas 2010.

The publication's Best of series ranks the state's best loved attractions in a variety of categories.

With respect to earnings guidance for 2010, based on our current view of market conditions we believe our estimated diluted net income for 2010 will be between $0.82 and $0.92 per share, and our FFO for 2010 will be between $2.57 and $2.67 per share.

In our earnings guidance, we are assuming that same center NOI grows between 0.5% to 1.5%,while tenant sales will remain at the 2009 levels during 2010.

As a result of the 2 successful common equity transactions during 2009, our earnings estimate for 2010 also assumes that there will be 46.2 million diluted weighted average common shares outstanding.

Our 2010 guidance includes the full year impact of the dilution caused by the issuance of 8.3 million common shares, associated with the successful share issuances in 2009.

Our 2010 earnings estimate does not include any additional rent termination fees, the impact of any potential refinancing transactions, the sale of any outparcels of land, or the sale or acquisition of any properties.

We plan to continue to thoughtfully use our resources, and to maintain a conservative financial position.

Our balance sheet with no upcoming debt until June 2011, puts us in a very strong position this year.

I would like to now open the call to any questions you may have.

Operator.

(Operator Instructions).

Your first question comes from Lindsay Schroll.

Your line is how open.

Hi.

Good morning.

I know you talked about tenant demand is increasing.

Where do you think Mebane will open, in terms of occupancy later this year?

It is hard to guess.

Right now we are thrilled to be at 77% pre leased.

We have probably six months before we actually open.

We are getting commitments virtually every day from the tenant community as we get closer to the opening date.

I would hate to give you any sort of guidance on that, but I am comfortable we will continue to sign leases.

Great.

Then shifting to Deer Park, how is the leasing coming and the tenant interest in the collection wing?

Is there any change of strategy there, or any updates?

We still think as luxury brands continue to recover, we are in very fruitful discussions with several luxury brands, and nothing is committed yet, but we continue to have those conversations.

Okay.

Great.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from Christine Mcelroy.

Your line is now open.

Hi good morning guys.

Last quarter you talked about some of the $600,000 of demolition class from Hilton Head potentially being in Q1 numbers.

Was any of that in there, and would you expect the rest to be expenses in Q2?

There was a small amount in Q1, but the majority of them will end up in the second quarter.

That is correct.

Okay.

And then you had projected G&A to be on average about $6 million, but that there would be some choppiness related to incremental expenses associated with strategic initiatives.

Can you provide any additional color on what those strategic initiatives might be, and how we should be thinking about G&A from a timing perspective?

From a timing perspective on the G&A costs, there will be additional incremental costs beyond what was in the first quarter.

The first quarter was kind of light with regard to initiative costs.

We also with the new long term performance based comp plan did not have a full quarter's expense of that in the first quarter, so that will also bump up the G&A slightly.

So I think the $6 million run rate is still applicable for the rest of the year.

Is it a run rate, or is it sort of an average?

So I mean what should he be looking at in terms of second quarter or third quarter?

It is pretty much going to be a run rate from here out.

We kind of came in a little below the $6 million for the Q1.

I don't know that we are going to get caught up, and be beyond $6 million per quarter if that is you are asking.

I think the 6 million is probably a good run rate.

And in terms of the strategic initiatives, any additional color on what they might be, or timing related to those and announcements?

Christy, we are looking at our entire portfolio, and I mean we are going to probably do some things like IT enhancements, to provide Wi-Fi service to our customers, which is not currently in place.

We may look at other enhancements to our properties, but as we conclude and our Board decides and approves our long term strategic plan, which will include some of these initiatives, we will announce them later this year.

Okay.

And then just lastly I am wondering do you currently have any involvement with Prime Outlets at the moment?

We have no involvement with Prime Outlets at the moment.

Okay and then just what is your sense for how the Prime acquisition will impact the competitive landscape for outlet centers in the US?

It is hard to guess.

I honestly don't know.

It would just be sheer speculation.

I think you would probably have to ask the tenants that question.

Right.

Have you had any discussions with tenants regarding their sense?

I have.

Anything you care to share?

Not today.

Okay.

Thanks.

Your next question comes from Quentin Velleley.

Your line is now open.

Hi guys it is [Manney] here with Quentin.

Going back to Deer Park for a second, the 81% occupancy rate that you give in your supplemental, is that all rent paying?

Are you asking if anybody has free rent?

The answer would be no.

Okay.

And then looking at the NOI yields for that asset, I seem to be getting a little bit closer to 5.5% versus your target of 8.5%.

Could you help me bridge the GAP between your target, and where we are now?

I mean it really just comes down to occupancy levels.

Every square foot that we increase occupancy level that goes right to the bottom line.

So I think as the occupancy increases in Deer Park, and we hope that it will throughout the year, you should see the NOI and the return percentage increase.

But to get to that kind of 8.5% mark, it looks like you're going to have to have rents that are significantly above where they are now.

Is that what you are seeing, or is there something I am missing?

Well it is not only rents, but you are going to increase your recovery rate and other items throughout the property that are going to add incremental values.

So it is not just a base rent number.

It is extra charges that right now the joint venture is seeing quite a bit of leakage with that regard.

So as occupancy increases, you will see that improve as well.

Okay.

Thanks.

Manney, I just want to add to that, we have been successful in the first quarter of this year in increasing traffic in Deer Park by close to 20% compared to last year.

Sales in March were up significantly.

We don't announce sales per shopping center, but they were up double-digit compared to March of last year.

So we are starting to see our marketing programs generate substantial traffic.

Last year in our first full year in a very bad economy 7.25 million shopping visits went to Deer Park, and we are on track to increase that by double-digits this year.

So we continue to have very robust conversations with our tenants, and as traffic increases and sales increase, we expect additional leases to be signed in the next six to mean months.

I think on the last call you guys had several LOIs out.

Any progress on those?

We would be happy to let you know when the leases are signed.

Okay.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from Michael Mueller.

Your line is now open.

Yes.

Hi.

I guess following up on that prior question, do you think, are we likely to see a mix of tenants coming into Deer Park where it is maybe bigger space users, like a department store, larger format tenant, as well as smaller, or does it seem like it is going to be skewed to one type more than another at this point?

I think you are probably going to see a mix, which will be reflective of the market.

Okay.

And can you just quantify to some degree the shadow pipeline, in terms of over the near term for example, I know we are heading into ICSC, a lot of people tend to announce new projects at this point in time.

Is this something that we should or could hear coming out of you, and how many other projects are you considering that could start over the next couple of years?

We have identified, Mike, a shadow pipeline, including 17 markets around the country that we have determined are either underserved, or not served at all by outlet centers.

We have our folks traveling around the country trying to identify specific locations, specific sites, and get them under control.

We are also working with the tenant community to get their point of view on the sites that we identify, and it is an organized process that has been going on for probably the last three to six months.

ICSC is not a magic date for us to announce anything.

If we are prepared and have the site under control, we will announce it, but we have very close communication with our lead magnet tenants on what we are doing, and they will, when we announce a site, it will be with their support.

Okay.

Okay.

Appreciate it.

Thank you.

Next question comes from Nathan Isbee, your line is now open.

Hi.

It is Dave Fick, also here with Nate Isbee.

Steve, I know you have already said you are not involved in the Prime retail transaction.

I am also aware that you are probably still under a confidentiality agreement with respect to that transaction, but I am just wondering given that it is very material to the industry, and will probably impact you no matter who it end up with, can you give us any insight as to what you are hearing about why that may not have closed yet?

Dave, thank you for respecting the fact that we are under a confidentiality agreement.

I have no first hand knowledge as to why it has not closed.

I think you would have to ask the folks involved with that transaction.

I candidly don't know.

Okay.

Great.

Nate has a question.

Yes.

Hi.

Good morning.

You just talked a little bit about Deer Park.

Can you just turn to Wisconsin Dells and Pittsburgh.

Talk a little bit about, I mean occupancy is clearly up at those two properties.

How sales are performing relative to your expectations?

Good morning, Nate.

Sales are very robust in those two sites.

Pittsburgh we announced recently that we have signed a Saks Off Fifth deal, which we are moving rapidly as are they, to try to open by Memorial Day.

The traffic in Pittsburgh and in Wisconsin is up significantly, and we expect that sales to continue to follow traffic, and as we continue to lease up.

Pittsburgh we are hopeful that it will be at or above our company average by the end of the year.

And how about the Dells?

The Dells is already above our company average.

So it continues to do well.

It is a relatively small property and it does well.

Okay.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from [Shane Buckner].

Your line is now open.

Hi.

This is Shane Buckner with Wells Capital Management.

You mentioned the low occupancy costs.

I think you said it was about 8.5% of retail sales, which did not allow for rental increases.

At what level does that get too high, and caps the built in rent growth?

And also one other question.

I think at some point last year Frank mentioned that you guys were seeing some new, some interest from retailer and outlet center, from retailers who had traditionally shunned the outlet center, and just wondering if you were still seeing interest from possibly new tenants?

Let me take the questions in reverse order.

Sure.

Yes, we continue to see interest from new tenants.

As sales recovered and have recovered, and the economy appears to be recovering, most of our tenants are going from defense to offense.

Most of the folks that run these businesses are paid to grow the business.

The outlet is a distribution channel, historically it has been the most or one of the most profitable business units of the companies that have outlets.

So people that, or companies that either have changed managements, who are familiar with the outlets as a distribution channel, or are now comfortable that the economy has turned, and that the outlets will enhance their brand, are coming to us to open new stores.

And that continues almost on a weekly basis.

It is very exciting for us to see the economy recover this way.

And it does build more demand for space in our properties.

With regard to your question as to rents being to a point where they are too high, I don't really know how to answer that.

Our cost of occupancy is about half of the cost of occupancy of some of the regional mall folks, and we as I have mentioned in our presentation earlier have continued to drive rents.

So far the blended rent spread is over 12%, which is pretty extraordinary, and we were able to do that because we keep our costs down, and because the tenants have increasing sales in our distribution channel.

So I don't think we are anywhere near the cost of occupancy number that would bump up against what tenants would consider to be excessive.

Okay.

Great.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from Carol Kemple.

Your line is now open.

Good morning.

At what point in the year do you expect to start having talks with the bank about your credit line for next year?

Every day.

Every week.

We constantly monitor the credit markets.

We have very close deep and longstanding relationships with our commercial and our investment banks that we do business with.

We are planning some time this year to refinance both our lines of credit and the outstanding term loan.

And at this point do you think you can get a loan for the same value that you have currently without a problem?

On the line of credit commitment?

Yes.

Yes.

Okay.

And then my other question, I know you have talked about this before in the call, but you have talked about your Commerce Georgia, the number one site there.

Do you have any plans for that property?

As far as selling it, or any changes to it?

We are currently operating the property as if we are going to own it forever.

Okay.

We entertain from time to time offers to buy the property, and if someone comes to us with a transaction and the financing to be able to complete it, we will certainly listen to it.

Okay.

Thanks.

Your next question comes from Ben Yang.

Your line is now open.

Hi.

Good morning, just going back to that last question on Commerce Georgia.

What is the story there I mean, obviously occupancy fell pretty significantly compared to year end.

I have never been there, but I am kind of curious what is happening at that center that is leading to that big occupancy decline?

Ben, this was a property built as a first generation outlet in 1988.

It is about half a mile off the Interstate and the interchange on the Interstate, so we have been transitioning this from an outlet center, actually it is called a town center now.

It is not even called an outlet center.

And we have just replaced the theater operator.

There is a movie theater there, and with the new operator sales in the theater are up 25%, but we are transitioning from outlet tenants to more value oriented tenants, that may not be outlet stores.

Okay.

Very helpful.

And then when you look at the occupancy levels of some of our other centers, you had some pretty big swings in occupancy, I think more than what can be explained by typical seasonality after the holidays.

Is there anything unusual happening at some of the centers that have lost say 300 to 600 basis point over the past three months?

Ben, this is Frank, and Steve chime in as well if you would like, but if you compare the occupancy in Q1 in 2010 and Q1 of 2009, I don't think you will see the swings that you might think you are seeing.

So there is really nothing unusual that has occurred other than temp tenants closing typically happening.

And you include that temp tenant number in the occupancy figure?

At year end, yes.

Okay.

Great.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from Cedrik Lachance, your line is now open.

Thank you.

How many more properties do you think you could redevelop, or you could reposition the way you are doing right now in Commerce, or the way you are doing at Hilton Head?

We don't think there are any other ones in our portfolio that would fall under those categories.

Okay.

In regards to Deer Park I know a loan is only maturing about a year from now, but at this point what are the plans for refinancing, and do you expect to have to inject more equity into the venture?

We are in close communications with the banks that hold the mortgage, and we don't have a resolution to that question yet.

As you mentioned, we do have time before the loan matures, but we are planning far in advance, and are having very fruitful and very good conversations with the bank lending group.

There is also a one-year extension on that loan from mid-2011 to mid-2012.

Okay.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from Rich Moore your line is now open.

Yes.

Hello good morning, guys.

Maybe it is my imagination, but it seems, Steve, that on the last call you said Hilton Head was I think 223,000 square feet, the new center, or the redeveloped center, and on this one you said 175,000.

Could you maybe reconcile that for me?

Sure.

Your memory is pretty good.

Actually I had it written down so it is not that good.

The difference is we have now broken it out, and I think it was one of your questions when we were together.

The outlet center itself is in the 175,000 square foot range, and the square footage permitted for the four outparcels with restaurants makes up the difference.

I got you.

That makes sense.

Great.

So it is still 223,000 roughly?

In total including the outparcels.

Got you.

Okay.

And then on the Seymour Indiana property the impairments that you guys had in the quarter I guess I didn't exactly understand.

You sold the center in 2005, but I guess must have still retained some interest in the outparcels, is that how that with worked?

Yes that is correct.

And do you have any more of those there, or is that sort of done?

We have one parcel left, Rich.

We had land with a book value of about $1 million remaining after we sold the property.

We have sold some parcels recently, and that provided us more of a market price, so we determined that we should take a write-down on the remaining parcel.

It is about 23 acres and we only have it on the books for a couple hundred thousand dollars at this point, so that is all that is left in Seymour.

Okay.

Great.

Thanks Frank.

That is helpful.

And then Steve, do you have any thoughts on traffic?

I know that you have mentioned in passing the traffic for the first three months of the year, and I guess March at the time wasn't finished, but any thoughts on how traffic for March went, and maybe what you are seeing for April?

We are very pleased with traffic in March.

We don't announce it per month, but it was up double-digits.

We are seeing the traffic, and we include March through the 31st of March, it did not include Easter weekend.

April traffic continues to trends up, and we again are driving traffic, consumers are out now shopping in greater numbers than they were a year ago, and although we don't have April sales yet, normally sales follow traffic.

Okay.

Good.

That makes sense.

Yes.

Thank you.

And then, Frank, last thing.

On the recovery ratio it was down this quarter versus first quarter of last year, fourth quarter of last year however you want to look at it.

Anything special going on in there?

Not really, I think some of it is timing related.

We do allocate some of our termination fees between base rent and recovery revenue, and I think in the previous periods that may have been a little higher, and then we probably had additional non-recoverable expenses that may have hit in some of those previous quarters.

Okay.

So going forward we kind of go back to where we were you think?

I think we are at what we were for Q1, should be fairly close to a run rate.

Okay.

All right.

Very good.

Thank you, guys.

(Operator Instructions).

There are no further questions in the queue.

I turn the call back over to you.

I want to just take a moment to thank you all of you for participating today, and your interest in our Company.

I am also happy to tell you that we went X dividend, and so far as of ten-forty this morning, we had already made back the dividend and are up a little bit.

So we are always, Frank and I and our team are always available to answer any of your other questions.

Please give us a call, and have a great day.

Thank you.

This construction costs today's conference call.

You may now disconnect.