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Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and thank you for joining the Second
Quarter 2014 DDR Corp. Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). And as a reminder
we are recording the call for replay. And now I will pass the call over to your
host Ms. Meghan Finneran, Financial Analyst.
Meghan Finneran - Financial Analyst
Thanks, Ryan. Good morning and thank you for joining us. On
today's call, you will hear from CEO, Dan Hurwitz; Senior Executive Vice
President of Leasing and Development, Paul Freddo; and President and CFO, David
Oakes.
Please be aware that certain of our statement may be forward looking. Although we
believe such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, you should
understand that these statement are subject to risk and uncertainties and actual
results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additional
information about such risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to
differ may be found in the press release issued yesterday and filed with the SEC
on Form 8-K and Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013 as amended.
In addition, we will discussing non-GAAP financial measures on today's call
including FFO and operating FFO. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial
measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our
earnings press release issued yesterday. This release and our quarterly financial
supplements are available on our website at www.ddr.com.
Last, we will be observing a one-question limit during the Q&A portion of our
call in order to give everyone the opportunity to participate. If you have
additional questions, please rejoin the queue.
At this time, it's my pleasure to introduce our CEO, Dan Hurwitz.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
Thank you, Meghan. Good morning everyone and thank you for
joining us today. I'd like to start today's call by reiterating that we are very
pleased with the consistency and the strength of the operating results achieved
during the second quarter, and the strategic transactions we announced since our
last earnings release. Our second quarter results mark a pivotal point in the
continued execution of our strategic plan as we closed on the sale of our
investment in Brazil, identified an attractive user proceeds and formed our third
joint venture with Blackstone to acquire prime assets and posted strong operating
results with more than 3 million square feet of leasing completed in the quarter
and new leasing spreads of 19%. While the near-term benefits of these
accomplishments are obvious, the longer-term positive impact of this quarter will
be realized for many years to come and significantly enhances our ability to
focus on our core business.
As the back-to-school season approaches, I'd like to take a moment to address the
significance of this selling season, the impact it has on our retailers and the
trends we are following in the market. Back-to-school was the second largest
retail season of the year at a time when retailers are highly invested in their
inventory level as goods have been purchased for both back-to-school and the
Christmas Holiday by this point in time. Over the past few weeks we have seen a
steady increase in retail sales due to improve weather, pent-up demand and those
increased inventory levels at each of our retailers. As a result, retailers are
beginning back-to-school sales earlier than in past years to further incentivize
consumers to shop and realize gains and market share. Not all sales and
promotional activity however should be viewed as an indicator that retail sales
are in a slump and tenants are getting anxious to simply move product. In fact,
most early promotions are well-planned and margins will be maintained for those
retailers. With the highly promotional 2013 holiday season still lingering, the
consumer's unwillingness to pay full price and the necessity of offering
verifiable value, retailers are carefully planning their sales and product
offerings as promotions remain the primary motivation for consumer spending.
In regard to merchandising trends, we continue to observer strong demand for
branded goods at discount prices further demonstrating our preference for
merchants offering this product type. For example, we are witnessing value-
oriented retailers such as Kohl's offering a much broader assortment of branded
goods this back-to-school season. The back-to-school season is indicative of the
coming holiday season and it will be very important to identify which retails won
consumer dollars and which lost market share. After a long winter and spring and
the slow transition into summer, the next few months will surely be an exciting
time to study retail trends and follow merchandising strategies. Rest assured we
will be spending a lot of time surveying the tenant universe through a variety of
store visits.
As we focus on the delivery of goods to the consumer, it is impossible and
imprudent not to consider the impact of technology and the disruption it has had
on the retail landscape over the past several years. Technology in retail has
been and continues to be a significant topic of discussion, and I'd like to take
a few minutes to address the confluence of technology in the brick-and-mortar
retail operations.
As we continue to observe the lines of distinction between the physical store and
the virtual world blur, the retail industry is steadily undergoing a progressive
transformation that is providing consumers with more convenience and value than
ever before. From innovative mobile technology that continues to drive foot
traffic and sales at bricks-and-mortar locations to buy online pick up in store
and ship from store initiatives, brick-and-mortar retailers are continuously
evolving their operational capacity. To date, retail efforts show real promise as
they not only translate to enhanced operational efficiencies but also
progressively fulfilling shopping expectations of the consumer.
Overall, the impact of technology on our universe of retailers has been
exceedingly positive. As the most successful and profitable retails of the
industry continue to be those that have established both a strong physical and
online presence and are striving to achieve an integrated omni-channel operating
platform. One concept we continue to observe growth and expansion is that of buy
online, pick up in store. Examples of tenants within our portfolio offering and
continuing to roll out the convenience of buy online pick up in store include
Wal-Mart, Target, Bed, Bath and Beyond, PetSmart, Dick's Sporting Goods, Best
Buy, Home Depot, Lowe's, DSW, Nordstrom Rack and Whole Foods.
We are also seeing our retail partners growing their ship-from-store initiatives
which will allow stores to double as distribution facilities and offer retailers
operational efficiencies that were previously unrecognized. Even fast casual
restaurant tenants are realizing the advantages of investing in technology for
the benefit of their brick-and-mortar operations, offering consumers the ability
to place online and mobile orders for convenient pick up, Panera Bread and
Chipotle represent two innovative fast casual operators leading the
transformation within the restaurant sector. We continue to see significant
investment activity from retailers and restaurant operators as they aim to
provide consumers with desirable experiences associated with both the physical
and the virtual realms.
It is important to note that in the vast majority of cases, technology
integration in the retail industry is focused on enhancing the bricks-and-mortar
experience, whether synchronizing a website with local store inventory for
successful buy online pick up in store fulfillment, investing in an algorithm to
launch an efficient ship from store program or developing a mobile application
with an array of in-store capabilities, retailers investing in technology are
directly investing in their physical presence.
As our tenants in the retail industry as a whole continues to adapt and evolve in
an ever changing environment, so too has our portfolio of prime power centers. As
previously announced, we formed our third joint venture with Blackstone to
acquire 76 shopping centers from ARCP for $1.975 billion. The 16.4 million square
foot portfolio primarily consist of prime power centers located in large markets
like Los Angeles, Houston, Denver, Chicago, Atlanta, Washington DC and Phoenix
and is occupied by high-quality retailers including Whole Foods, Trader Joe's,
The Fresh Market, Costco, Target, Wal-Mart, Kohl's, PetSmart, Dick's Sporting
Goods, Bed, Bath and Beyond, and the TJX Companies. Within an expected closing of
mid-September, this transaction further enhances our partnership with a best-of-
breed capital partner as we again team up to create value in ways that align with
our respective investment philosophies. This transformation showcases our
continued ability to efficiently recycle capital and further advance our
portfolio transformation.
Having an underwriting history that dates back to several months prior to deal
announcement, we have identified significant opportunities to enhance the value
of the portfolio through active portfolio management. We are confident in our
ability to generate outsized asset level growth by leveraging our proven
operating platform and have appropriately structured our investment to produce
attractive risk-adjusted returns while securing access to acquisition
opportunities in the future. We look forward to maximizing value for our
shareholders as we capitalize on the many opportunities available to us through
the newly announced portfolio, our existing portfolio and the future
opportunities that we are currently pursuing in the market. At this point, I'd
like to turn the call over to Paul.
Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development
Thanks, Dan. Strong leasing momentum continued in the second quarter
resulting in 364 new deals and renewals for 3.1 million square feet matching the
highest quarterly deal volume in Company history. Similarly, spreads were also
indicative of the strong leasing environment with an 18.8% pro rata new deal
spread and 7.5% pro rata renewal spread. Our 2.4 million square feet of renewals
represents that highest quarterly volume in Company history and is further
evidence that retailers are focused on securing high-quality locations in prime
power centers.
While I typically spend some time addressing the supply-and-demand dynamics, we
all know that it remains heavily in the landlords' favor as demonstrated by our
quarterly results. Instead, I'd like to focus on how we're taking advantage of
this environment to continue to grow NOI and improve portfolio quality through
our previously announced Project Accelerate initiative as well as ground up
development.
As we announced in late May and discussed with many of you at NAREIT Project
Accelerate is allowing us to collaborate with retailers in the books,
electronics, toys, office and traditional department store categories to regain
control of locations in advance of natural lease expirations where we can then
re-merchandise our assets with market share winning tenants and recognize rental
upside of 30% to 40%.
As we have discussed before, this is an ongoing multi-year initiative and we
continue to work with these retailers on a regular basis to right-size their real
estate footprints. As such, in addition to the 21 previously announced recaptured
boxes representing 550,000 square feet of prime power center space, we have
finalized deals to recapture an additional five boxes totaling 160,000 square
feet in prime assets in Boston, Miami, Charleston and Rowley .
It's important to remember that while we're finalizing deals in 2014 to
proactively recapture space, the benefits of the remerchandising and the mark-to
-market opportunities will commence in the second half of 2015. Additionally,
with the ability to know for certain which spaces we are recapturing, we have the
ability to sign leases in advance of store closings, limiting the impact to our
lease rate and resulting in minimal downtime.
While we are certainly sensitive to our retail partners who have not yet informed
their employees of specific store closing, I would like to provide a few examples
of our success with this initiative. In the books category, we have several great
examples underway. In one instance at a 530,000 square foot prime power center
we're backfilling a 24,000 square foot Barnes & Noble with Ulta and GAP Factory
Outlet at a blended comp of 100%. This will enhance the center's overall
merchandise mix with two best-in-class retailers, drive NAV and provide enhanced
credit quality of cash flow.
In a separate 165,000 square foot prime power center, we are replacing a 23,000
square foot Barnes with a new Fresh Market at a 20% positive rent comp and
introducing a grocery component to the center driving daily traffic. This will
result in further upside in adjacent space as those leases come up for renewal
and reduce the overall cap rate of the asset due to the market's infatuation with
grocers.
In a final example, which takes place in a 1 million square foot prime power
center we are splitting the 28,000 square foot Barnes box into several units
featuring White House Black Market, Five Below and Carter's resulting in a
significant positive rent comp of over 130%, adding exciting new retailers to the
mix and outperforming the original underwriting assumed at acquisition in 2013.
In the office category, we have been strategically partnering with Office Depot
as they right size their footprint. One example is the recapturing of a 23,000
square foot Office Max box at a 220,000 square foot prime power center acquired
in 2013 providing the spark for a larger redevelopment. After recapturing this
box, we will proceed with the downsizing of the adjacent and oversized DSW. With
the Office Max recaptured and DSW downsized, we can then accommodate a Nordstrom
Rack, dramatically improving the merchandise mix, credit quality and traffic at
our center. Additionally, the new Nordstrom Rack deal represents an 80% rent comp
on the Office Max space and 40% positive comp on DSW space.
A second example is in a 435,000 square foot prime power center acquired in 2012
where we will recapture and split an Office Depot box for Ulta and Carter's
achieving a blended comp of 100%, and driving both stability and growth well
beyond our initial underwriting of this asset. While these are just a few
examples of the types of deals we are making, they demonstrate that by
recapturing below-market leases we are driving incremental growth, improving the
credit quality of cash flow, further positioning our asset as dominant shopping
centers, enhancing the merchandise mix offerings and eliminating potential risk
with certain retailers. The list of retailers we are dealing with to back fill
the recaptured space goes well beyond those named above and includes Shoe
Carnival, Cost Plus World Market, Total Wine, Bed, Bath and Beyond, Academy
Sports, Ross, Marshalls, HomeGoods and many more.
The concept of incentivizing our leasing team to create vacancy in highly unusual
in our business, but it speaks to the opportunities presented by the current
supply-demand dynamic and the dramatic transformation of our portfolio quality
over the past several years. Also directly related to strong retail demand, one
of the key takeaways from our 1,000 plus meetings at this year's ICSC in Las
Vegas was that retailers are now willing to commit to new development projects
without requiring a major tenant. As a result, we've made exciting steps towards
effectively monetizing our existing land bank through ground-up development and
I'd like to take a moment to update you on that progress
For those in attendance at our Charlotte Investor Day this past October, you will
recall Belgate Shopping Center which represented our first ground-up development
in over four years. Belgate opened ahead of schedule in May of 2013 and is a 100%
leased, 900,000 square foot power center located in Charlotte anchored by IKEA
and a complimentary line up of junior anchors including Marshalls, Ulta, Old
Navy, PetSmart, Cost Plus World Market, Hobby Lobby, Shoe Carnival. Given the
project's success, we are now finalizing a second phase of this project which
will represent 75,000 square feet of space occupied with other best-in-class
junior anchors while continuing to achieve an unlevered cash on cost return in
excess of 10%.
As you saw earlier this month, we announced the grand opening of Seabrook
Commons, our most recent ground-up development project located Seabrook, New
Hampshire, a northern suburb of Boston. Seabrook Commons is a 96% lease, 380,000
square foot power center anchored by Wal-Mart, Dick's Sporting Goods, PetSmart,
Michael's, Ulta, Famous Footwear and Five Below and includes a complementary
restaurant line of consisting of Panera, Outback Steakhouse and Noodles &
Company. The opening of Seabrook Commons which achieved an 8% unlevered return on
incremental capital results in the second consecutive year that we have added a
fully stabilized prime power center to the portfolio through ground-up
development.
In a few weeks, we will officially break ground on Gilford Commons, a 130,000
square foot power center consisting of three junior anchors including a specialty
grocer and 40,000 square feet of shop and specialty space located just east of
New Haven, Connecticut. With a planned opening in the second half of 2015 and
projected unlevered incremental yield of 8%, this project will represent our
third consecutive year of delivering a new ground-up development project.
Lastly, we will be breaking ground on a multi-phase development project in
Orlando, Florida later this fall with an expected opening of the first phase in
fall of 2015. Once complete Lee Vista will span 450,000 square feet and will be
anchored by theater offer a lineup of best-in-class junior anchor retailers and
consist of an array of high-quality restaurant operators. This mix will take
advantage of an abundance of surrounding office space, dense hotel offerings and
close proximity to Orlando International Airport. Lee Vista will represent our
fourth consecutive year of delivering a new group-up development project and we'
re projecting an 8.5% yield on incremental invested capital. These strategic
development projects enable us to assist the external growth aspirations of our
retail partners, monetize our land bank and achieve attractive returns on
incremental invested capital.
As the supply-and-demand dynamic continues to heavily favor the landlord
community, we are accelerating our efforts to take advantage by being extremely
aware that our industry is cyclical and opportunities are often fleeting. As
highlighted by Project Accelerate, our recent ability to generate new NOI through
ground-up development and our previously discussed $1 billion redevelopment
pipeline, we are continuing to find creative ways to grow NOI, improve
merchandise mix, enhance credit quality of cash flow and expand the overall
market share of our portfolio, all in an effort to not only benefit from the
current landlord favorable environment but also to deliver long-term stability in
any economic environment. And I will now turn the call over to David.
David Oakes - President, CFO
Thanks, Paul. Operating FFO was $101.3 million or $0.28 per share
for the second quarter, including non-operating items FFO for the quarter was
$82.1 million or $0.23 per share. Non-operating items primarily consisted of
impairments related to land held for development that is currently being sold.
The second quarter was again representative of DDR's execution of its strategic
transactional and balance sheet objectives. First, we closed on the acquisition
of four prime power centers, three of which were sourced off market for $265
million. These acquisitions were focused in the top 30 MSAs and included anchors
such as Target, Costco and Whole Foods.
The most significant acquisition was the Maxwell, a 240,000 square foot prime
plus power center locate Chicago South Loop. The Maxwell features an impressive
lineup of junior anchors including Nordstrom Rack, Dick's Sporting Goods and T.J.
Maxx sits directly adjacent to Whole Foods and offers a demographic profile of
household incomes of $105,000 and population of 681,000 people in the trade area.
DDR previously made a $21 million mezzanine loan on the project that was
accompanied by advantageous acquisition rights allowing for a seamless
acquisition prior to completion and stabilization, with additional upside for DDR
given the 90% lease rate. We closed on the acquisition in May for $118 million
and we expect the majority of the NOI to come online in the fourth quarter of
2014. The acquisition was partially financed by the issuance of 1 million OP
units in order to provide tax efficiency and the remainder of the acquisition was
financed through asset sale proceeds.
Another acquisition that I would like to highlight is Waterstone Crossing, a
425,000 square foot prime power center in Cincinnati that is anchored by Target
and Costco. DDR sourced the acquisition off market as a result of a strong local
relationship which allowed us to achieve much more attractive pricing than a
marketed sale for a class A center in a large market, providing for significant
net asset value creation before we even plugged the center into our platform. DDR
not only achieved favorable pricing but we will look to increase the yields by
bringing in top tier organic grocer to the asset in the coming months to replace
a weaker merchant.
We also announced that we have formed a 95/5 joint venture with Blackstone to
acquire 76 assets from American Reality Capital Partners for $1.975 billion. The
acquisition is scheduled to close in late 3Q, subject to loan assumptions.
Consistent with previous acquisitions and joint-ventures with Blackstone, DDR
secured acquisition rights to the top tier assets which represent 10 of the 76
assets with over 40% of the total value. As Dan mentioned, this transaction
continues to build on our deep relationship with Blackstone and highlights the
partnership's ability to source off-market opportunities below market pricing.
On the domestic disposition side we sold 11 operating assets and six land parcels
for $51 million at DDR share and we currently have $335 million of operating and
non-producing assets under contract for sale. Additionally, we also completed the
sale of our Brazilian investment for net proceeds of $344 million, a transaction
that dramatically simplifies our Company and decreases our risk profile. The
remaining wholly-owned non-prime assets now consist of only 32 assets, down from
nearly 200 shopping centers at the end of 2009, and all of which are either being
marketed for sale or a subject to either pending leases or anchor rollover in the
short term.
Regarding disposition pricing, for the full year 2014, we estimate a blended cap
rate in the low 7% range comprised of mid-7% pricing on operating assets that we
are selling into a strong market as well non-producing land.
On the capital market side, DDR also announced the closing of a $75 million
nonrecourse mortgage loan secured by Plaza Escorial the 636,000 square foot
shopping center in Puerto Rico. The loan was completed with a leading life
insurance company and included a 7-year term and a fixed interest rate of under
3.6%. The financing highlights the strong property level supply-demand
fundamentals and the attractive financing environment that continues to exist on
the island despite the macroeconomic headwinds.
In July, DDR paid off a $304 million balance of the (Inaudible) loan the
previously secured 27 prime assets and a loan to value in the 30% range further
reinforcing our desire to grow the size of our unencumbered pool, which now
stands at $6.5 billion, up from $3.6 billion in 2009. Disposition proceeds on the
Plaza Escorial loan were immediately utilized to repay the TALF debt. However,
we will look to issue long duration unsecured bonds in the second half of 2014 to
replace the CMBS debt at a comparable rate
Finally, as a result of the significant transactional and capital markets
activity, I would like to address DDR's sources and uses of capital for the
remainder of 2014 and the subsequent impact on operating FFO guidance. As we
currently stand, we are on target to exceed our current guidance for both
acquisitions and disposition activity. Year-to-date, we have closed or are under
contract to acquire $296 million of one off acquisitions plus $384 million
associated with DDR share of the ARCP acquisition totaling $680 million.
Disposition activity including assets under contract includes $548 million
domestically and $344 million in net proceeds associated with the sale of our
Brazilian investment totaling $892 million. This transaction activity highlights
DDR's desire to be a net seller in 2014 given the strong pricing environment and
further reinforces the lack of need for equity issue for either transactional
activity or debt repayment for the remainder of the year.
We have heard some recent commentary that encourages us to remind analysts and
investors that neither investment nor refinancing activity will be funded from
our line of credit for a long period of time. So it is much more appropriate
(Inaudible) long-term debt issuance in the next several quarters. At this point,
I'll stop and turn the call over to Dan for closing remarks.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
Thanks, David. Before turning the call over to questions, I would
like to let you know that we are planning to host a property tour in Atlanta on
November 4th in conjunction with NAREIT. As many of you know, Atlanta represents
our largest market by square footage and second largest market by base rent and
highlights numerous assets that clearly illustrate our investment thesis.
Following the tour, we will host a dinner during which you will have unlimited
access to our senior management team as well as our local management team from
our Atlanta office which is responsible for 116 assets totaling more than 30
million square feet in Georgia, Alabama, the Carolinas, Tennessee and Virginia.
We look forward to a productive day and exchanging thoughts with those of you who
can make the trip to Atlanta and would like to join us.
Again, thank you for joining us today. I'll now turn the call over to the
operator for your questions.
Operator
(Operator instructions) Our first questions comes through from Christy
McElroy with Citi.
Christy McElroy - Analyst
Good morning everyone. As retailers build out online pickup in
store and other incentives to tie e-commerce to brick and mortars, Dan, as you
talk about are you finding any changes in retailer are looking at their space
needs in a specific market as stores become increasingly a method for
distribution?
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
That's a great question, Christy, because it is something we
discussed with a number of our retail partners now. And it's really not a
function of space needs. It's how they're going to configure the space to make
the experience pleasant for the customer. Right now, as many of you know, in
order to pick up goods or to experience the shop online pick up in store program,
you either have to go into the store specifically and at which point there's
someone to assist you to your car with whatever good it is which is not really
convenient or you have to go to the back of the store where the dock is and
unpleasant things like dumpster and bailers and things of that nature. So the
actual physical presence of the store is in question and how they layout the
store and how they make a customer pick up experience pleasant is a topic of
conversation for sure. And there's no great answer yet to how to do that,
although, one of the things that we are seeing is for those of you who are old
enough to remember the Sears catalog and JCPenny catalog and Montgomery Ward
catalog, et cetera, where they had specific areas for catalog people to pick up
goods at the store, that does give you a clue as to probably we're going back to
the future if you will in a lot of those types of environment.
So I do think that we're going to continue dialog with retailers on this. I don't
think there's an easy answer to it. But I think there will be not necessarily
square-footage reductions or expansions, but there will be different space layout
to try to create an environment that is exceedingly convenient for the consumer
to come to the site, go to the store, pick up the goods, get in and get out
quickly with the merchandise. And I think it will require us to make physical
changes to some of our shopping centers and physical changes to the overall
experience in the near future.
Christy McElroy - Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes through from Ross Nussbaum with UBS.
Jeremy Metz - Analyst
Good morning. Jeremy Metz on with Ross. You guys talked about a
number of developments you have going on. Can you just talk about what sort of
spreads versus acquisitions you are underwriting today? Is that tighter than say
a year ago? And then just more broadly where institutional assets are trading on
a cap rate basis today and if that's compressed further?
David Oakes - President, CFO
Sure. As we referenced a little bit in the opening commentary and
certainly hopefully shows up in our actual transaction activity, the private
market for quality shopping centers is extremely hot, it's extremely competitive.
There is a reasonable amount of product being listed, but it's being overwhelmed
by the amount of capital that's looking at the space. And so the acquisition
environment is very competitive, very challenging, that's why you saw our
activity for this quarter dramatically more focused on off market opportunities,
more opportunities where we had some sort of advantage on the deal and that's why
we were pleased with the acquisitions that we were able to complete this quarter.
That's why you don't see us out actively winning a great majority of the deals
that we looked at. We'd say at this point, quality power centers are clearly
trading no higher than the low six cap range and seeing many, many more deals not
just in the beloved coastal markets but in a broader list of markets and that
trading below 6% cap rate. And so an extremely competitive environment for
acquisitions.
We have sought other places to invest our capital. In some cases, it just means a
timing issue where we're patient and we're disciplined and we'll wait to put that
capital out where we do find opportunities. In other cases it means that capital
gets redeployed in a redevelopment activity which we've talked about quite a bit
or some of the new development activity that Paul referenced where I think
consistently we are talking about getting 250 basis points or more of expected
return beyond where we think those assets would trade in the private market.
Obviously, there is some development risk in the projects we're talking about,
but we're more discussing projects where we already own the land, is already
entitled land, we think you're talking about a considerable development spread
there where you're only taking a fraction of the traditional development risk if
we were to be going out and buying unentitled land to work that to the process
where we think we would need an even wider spread for that sort of activity.
Jeremy Metz - Analyst
Thanks.
Operator
Our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb with Sandler O'Neill.
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Good morning out there. Just a question, if you look at a
number of the expanding concept like SoulCycle and the ballet concept and yoga,
et cetera. And then you also see that expanding dental chains and things of that
sort. Are retailers more accepting of those sorts of concepts co-locating at the
shopping centers or are they still resistant because of legacy parking concerns
or other issues like that.
Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development
It's gotten better Alex in terms of the retailer's acceptance. You
mentioned a couple of different concepts, so I would have a separate dental from
fitness especially some of the smaller fitness users like SoulCycle. The
retailers have gotten to accept the L.A. Fitness of the world certainly not some
of the huge, lifetime fitness type units. But fitness in general has become very
common in a lot of shopping centers, well-planned and well-positioned is the key.
That's the comment we get back a lot of the time when we're asking for consent
for some of the ready to wear merchants or other anchors in our centers. As long
as they are positioned properly, seemed to have their own parking, not a terrible
influence on the parking right in front of the store, they're accepting.
Dental, medical, that' a different thing you're going to have some centers where
there is some small shops base, or some outline space that makes sense for. But
we're not excited about putting that in line with our traditional retail centers
anywhere and then we'd like to keep it in an off location if you will. And again,
I don't think you can compare the two uses.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
Yes, I think the short answer, Alex, is yes. People are more --
the retailers are more accepting. But particularly for the medical use, we're not
more accepting. And while certainly there are certain centers where that maybe
appropriate, in most cases we've determined that those are centers that are non-
prime and those are centers that we should sell. And so we are not actively in
that market because once you go non-retail for a shopping -- obviously there are
certain services fitness is one and there's other spaces that are difficult to
lease that may be appropriate. But once you go to the medical field and that
becomes a major priority for a shopping center, it's going to be very difficult
to maintain the retail presence and the market share gains and achieve market
share gains that you like. And we typically put those centers on the sale list
and we've had success obviously selling them. And as you can tell by our leasing
numbers without doing those deals, we're doing just fine. Leasing to the people
that we want to lease to. So we really haven't needed to go to that level. And I
don't suspect that we will anytime soon.
Operator
And our next question comes through from Craig Schmidt, Bank of
America.
Craig Schmidt - Analyst
Thank you. Good morning. The top national retailers continue to
grow its market share of the total sales, I'm just wondering what this means by
shopping center format and particularly what that might mean for small shops in
shopping centers.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
Well, you want to see in our case anyway, Craig, where the small
shops are becoming less relevant. The power center format, let me start with
that, we don't have a lot of small shop space as we think about it in small
grocery anchor or community centers. So we've been very focused on taking it to
the point you're talking about where we're consolidating shops space, bringing in
some of the national anchors, converting 3,000 foot units to one 9,000 foot unit.
So you will see a reduction in it. I think the key in our business and certainly
the way I look at it is, how much shop space should any center have, right? And
it's not going to be a big component when you talk about the power center format.
So we're going to focus on the national retailers. We're going to focus on the
large 10,000 and up primarily. Certainly there'll be some smaller that complement
the mix. But we will see less and less shop space. And that is a little bit of a
function of what's happening with the business. There's always going to be room
for service and food, fast food particularly, some of the cell phone operators.
So you will see shop space in those sort of categories. But in what we're doing
and what we're focused on, we're not going to see a heavy concentration of the
shop space as we used to know it.
Operator
Next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs
Caitlin Burrows - Analyst
Hi, good morning. As Dollar Tree is on your list of largest
tenants and I'm sure you also have exposure to Family Dollar. Could you talk
about any impact you expect the merge of those two companies to have on their
square-footage plans?
David Oakes - President, CFO
Yes, Dollar Tree is quite a large player in our portfolio. But there
is only one Family Dollar, so impact in terms of the merger. And we think it's a
great idea. In fact we'd like to see this growth exposure in some of our markets.
Eighty-six is the number of Dollar Trees we have today. So again, just with one
Family Dollar, we're up to 87. And again, no impact on the merger in terms of
closing.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
And we think the merger is a positive thing. When you have
multiple retailers in the similar category with a similar pricing strategy, it
makes sense for them to join forces. We've seen it with Office Max and Office
Depot. We thought that was a good idea. And we certainly think that this is a
good idea as well. We think that in general, though, one of the reasons why these
events occur is because if you look at the companies individually, both of them
had very, very high aspirational new store GLA growth strategies. Both of which
were going to be extremely difficult to achieve on an independent basis
particularly as we have rising occupancy rates. We have nothing new being built.
And finding the square footage necessary to sustain those growth aspirations was
going to be very, very difficult and I think near impossible.
So I think as the combined chain looks for its growth opportunities, it is more
likely to succeed in the guided square footage that they have planned than they
would individually. And I think that was a big part of the conversation that
leads to the merger because retailers as you know have to grow internally or
externally. But internally is tough. Internally is tough in a non-inflationary
environment. So external growth is actually critical for a successful retailer
and growing market shares is absolutely critical. And independently when very
little is being built and the supply-demand dynamic is they heavily favor the
landlord a joining of the forces in that effort makes a lot of sense.
Operator
Next is Jonathan Pong with Robert Baird.
Jonathan Pong - Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys. Dave, S&P has a positive outlook on your
credit rating. Can you share anything about how those discussions are going is it
considering an upgrade to BBB and then what's the biggest hurdle to getting that
done?
David Oakes - President, CFO
Yes, I mean the outlook is obviously very important to where their
head is at in terms of their bent to continue to have the rating more positively
reflect our credit. They do very clearly their own research. We try to be as open
in front of them as possible with our disclosure that we share with everyone as
well as with specific rating agency business and disclosures. So have no secret
intel as to what their plans are, but obviously I think we keep making
considerable progress, de-risking the Company. That includes lowering debt to
EBITDA, but a much broader list of de-risking activities like the Brazilian exit.
And so we think as we continue to make progress, the rating agencies have
recognized that we think they'll continue to recognize that maybe even more
importantly, I think if you look at where our bonds trade the fixed income
investment community has certainly been supported of our name that I think
positions as well when we choose to return to the bond market.
Operator
Next comes through from Albert Lin with Morgan Stanley.
Albert Lin - Analyst
Good morning guys. Year-to-date, I think you guys are attracting
around 3.2% same stores NOI growth which is slightly towards the higher end of
your full year guidance, 2.5% to 3.5%. I'm curious what your thoughts are for the
back half of the year. And how long do you think you can sustain this level of
plus 3% NOI growth?
David Oakes - President, CFO
We're please with that activity for the first half of the year. I
would call it very consistent to modestly ahead of that guidance range. And we
think it continues to be achievable for the second half of the year. I think
everything we talked about for years with the upgrade of the portfolio quality
with the upgrade of the underlying tenant base was meant to create a portfolio
that could deliver this. And while there is much debate in the past as to whether
our portfolio quality warranted pricing on par with the other shopping center
companies, I think as results show up, it becomes harder and harder to justify
the discounted which we trade.
When you see that the underlying cash flow does not only grow on part and better
than peers, but also I think represented the sort of consistency that is
important to us and we think important to what stocks get attracted multiples or
NAV premiums or small NAV discounts over time. And so we're pleased with the
activity to date. We think everything that we put in place with the portfolio as
well as the leasing team not only the caliber of the people we have but the
mandate that they very clearly have from all of us to continue to drive growth to
focus on project to accelerate, to find those opportunities where we can create
additional rental spreads, creating near-term lease roll over, improve the
quality and value of the portfolio, but also absolutely push same store NOI. Now
counter intuitively, it may have a slight negative impact in 2014 where we're
creating vacancy or at least in the first half of 2015. But we think even with
that, we can maintain very attractive same store NOI growth on an absolute basis
in this 2.5% to 3.5% range and I think very attractive same store NOI growth
relative to the peer group.
Operator
Next question comes from Jason White from Green Street Advisors.
Jason White - Analyst
Good morning guys. Just a follow up on the previous discussion over
(Inaudible) SoulCycle and some of those tenants in your centers. How easy it to
add the specialty grocers with the parking they demand, is it difficult to find
the place to fit them in your centers or is it pretty easy to restructure some of
the other retailer's expectation?
Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development
It's actually been quite easy Jason to fit them in. Most of the
specialty grocers we've done have been takeovers of existing space. Like the one
example I gave with a Fresh Market will be taking a Barnes location, fit into the
exact footprint, no expansion, no reduction necessary. And Barnes and some of the
other spaces we have recaptured, they were very demanding in the amount of
parking in front of their stores initially. So we've got plenty of parking and
then we're anxious to fill those slots with folks like the specialty grocers. But
we don't see any issue in terms of the parking demand at all. In fact, many of
the centers we've built, we're probably over parked and now coming in with
somebody who's going to use up a little bit of that parking is a great add to the
center.
Operator
Next we have Todd Thomas from KeyBanc.
Todd Thomas - Analyst
Hi. Thanks, good morning. Dan, in light of your comments around the
retail environment, you noted that you're spending a lot of time analyzing
retailers promotional campaigns and inventory levels and merchandising. And we've
seen a modest uptick in bankruptcies and closures this year relative to prior
years. Your comment seems to be focused more on the importance of this back-to-
school and holiday season. I was just wondering, do you feel that this season is
more important than in recent years for many retailers, maybe a tipping point of
sorts or a situation where things shake loose a bit with regard to closure or
even bankruptcies. I was just curious if you could elaborate a bit on your
comments.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
Sure. I don't think this season is any more important than any
other season from that perspective. Particularly because I think in general, if
you look at the bulk of our cash flow and the credit quality of our cash flow,
the tenants are going into this holiday season in good shape. Balance sheets are
in good shape. I think they've figured out obviously, over the last several
years, regardless of the news we heard yesterday, they figured out how to operate
in a low GDP environment with modest wage growth and modest employment growth.
And I think they're well prepared for the holiday season and well prepared for
back to school.
I think what's interesting though and we did a property tour up in New England
the last two days. And one of the things you are seeing is that inventory levels
and promotional activity in retailers is early. It was early for back-to-school
and I suspect we'll see the same thing now for the holiday season. We've always
waited sort of for after Thanksgiving and then everything moved to before
Thanksgiving and I think everything is accelerating a week early or two early.
And I think that's a result of the inventory levels. I think it's a result of the
cooperation between the vendor and the retailer and the fact that the consumer
isn't skittish. The consumer smart and the consumer doesn't like to pay full
price and they need to be incentivized to shop and the retailers are figuring out
how to do that.
So I don't really think this is any more important than any other important
selling season. But I do think that you will see some changes in inventory
levels. You will see some changes in promotional activity. I also think that we
saw some changes in merchandise mix because of the importance of branded goods
off price. And that's just something to watch, to see if it works quite frankly.
To see if it's the right move and to see if that's what the consumer is looking
for as we head into the two most important shopping seasons which obviously are
back to school and holiday.
Operator
Next is Tayo Okusanya with Jefferies.
Tayo Okusanya - Analyst
Good morning everyone. I just want to go back to follow your
comments about project accelerate. I appreciate the details and some of the
examples you shared. I was just curious though, if we take a step back and think
about 21 recaptured boxes and the five that are being recaptured. Of those, how
many are released at this point and how many have you actually physically taken
back at this point.
Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development
Physically we've only taken back one but they're happening, they
will be staggered events and that's part of the beauty of this. Part of our deals
on the 26 now are controlling exactly when we will we get the space back and made
the point that we want to be in a position where we're signing leases with the
replacement tenant prior to physically getting the space back. There will be a
few more in the third quarter, several more by the end of this year. Pretty
decent wave of recaptures early in 2015. And David mentioned, obviously, there
will be a little bit of a hit with that.
The stuff we haven't captured, we have certainly concrete ideas on every one.
Deals are not done with all 26 but we're recapturing for a reason. We want that
space. And so in many cases -- and if I just had to give a percentage I'd tell
you 50%. We've got deals soon to be executed and the others are in LOI and
negotiation stages but very comfortable with the space. We won't trigger the
recapture until we ready, minimizing downtime, obviously getting a replacement
tenant open as soon as possible. But then the upside is very dramatic, and as
you could probably tell from the script and what talk about NAREIT and at other
times this is a program that the entire leasing team is unbelievably excited
about. This is creating space in occupied centers and bringing in those best in
class retailers that we want to complement the mix and to grow the portfolio. I
will give you an example that just occurred to me yesterday. One of the examples
I gave where we were recapturing an Office Max downsizing the DSW and bringing in
Nordstrom Rack. We have an automotive use in that center that doesn't fit and
very low rent. And we went to them very recently just to downsize and
(Inaudible) make us an offer to take us out and we absolutely will. They adjacent
to Whole Foods. The upside potential in a space like that not one of the original
90 boxes we targeted, but that is what is going to happen with this initiative.
We are going to find other opportunities we haven't even though of, so extremely
exciting
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
I think it's very important to note to Paul's point though is
that we will stagger the take-backs. And in most cases, we will have signed
leases before we actually take back the space because our agreements with these
retailers give us the optionality of when we can take it back, obviously giving
consideration to their peak sales times et cetera. So we will stagger it out to
minimize the downtime as much as possible or maximize the cash flow as much as
possible. But we're in a good shape from a documents standpoint. So our
optionality on these spaces is what's really creating enormous value. So as we
announce these deals and as these deals come through, you will actually see deals
that are signed, ready to go but we might not have taken back the space yet. And
we still have some time before we do that.
Operator
Next question is from Ki Bin Kim from SunTrust.
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
Thanks. Just a couple of quick follow-ups. Along that similar lines.
If I look at your portfolio there's still maybe 25% of space that's not owned by
you. What are your plans on those types of spaces. And does that make sense for
you to take some of those back into the owned portfolio.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
The unowned you're looking at is typically where you have a
shadow anchor whether it's a Target or a Lowe's or Wal-Mart. And we have looked
in certain cases where it makes sense to convert to lease. But that's not
typically the preference of those larger retailers.
Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development
You think about some of the costly capital standpoint as much as our
positioning has dramatically improved and cost of capital has decreased, it's a
real struggle to say that are our cost of capital could compete with the Costco
or a Wal-Mart who have consistently wanted to own a larger portion of their store
base. At least for Wal-Mart's large format stores.
Operator
Next question is from Michael Mueller with JPMorgan.
Michael Mueller - Analyst
Hi. I was wondering for the Blackstone JV, did you consider
taking, I guess, a higher ownership stake initially or not really because you
have access to the top 10 centers that you wanted anyway?
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
I think the importance for us is the risk-adjusted return. And so
to be able to get a very low-risk return on a preferred equity piece for a period
of time during which we'll be doing the extremely detailed underwriting above and
beyond what you do in an acquisition process but what you do when you truly own
and manage a center to see what would make sense. Assuming we can figure out
another transaction with Blackstone to take several of those assets on a wholly
owned basis. I think it speaks to our focus on risk overall. Our focus on
portfolio quality overall where we didn't have an interest to take on 100% of
these 76 assets. But we think we have a very attractive structure here where we
absolutely expect to help our good partners at Blackstone on this transaction and
end up at the end of day with something that works extremely well for them and
very well for us where we can achieve a good return and a consistent return up
front. And potentially, an ownership interest of 100% of the smaller pool of
highest quality prime assets that we want longer term. So there's a structure
that's worked well. They are a partner that has worked extremely well, and so
we're excited to another one with them. And hopefully, we see it progress over
the next several years the way that the first one has.
Operator
Next we have Christopher Lucas with Capital One Securities.
Christopher Lucas - Analyst
Good morning everyone. Just wanted to follow up on the last
question which is, David, maybe you could give us sense as to aspirates between
(Inaudible) and the best quality assets (Inaudible) in that ARCP portfolio.
David Oakes - President, CFO
I think there is a relatively widespread when you simply say there
are 76 assets. When you truly look at where the value is focused, I think it's
pretty tightly focused on high quality shopping centers in major market. But to
answer the most extreme thought of your question, I think there are high quality,
major, major market asset that recent transactional activity would tell us our
five caps or sub five cap sort of assets in the Los Angeles area. And on the
other end, there are some smaller market, single kind of assets with less
attractive demographics are underlying tenancy that would probably be in the mid
-eights. And so I think you do have a wide range of cap rates by that broadest
definition of thinking about each one of the 76 assets. But when you truly look
at where the value is, it is highly concentrated in the high quality major market
prime, large scale power centers.
Operator
Next we have Rich Moore with RBC Capital Markets.
Rich Moore - Analyst
Hi guys. Good morning. I'm curious, now that development seems to be
making its way back into the conversation not just with you guys but with others
as well, where you are in terms of your development platform, in terms of your
staff, your expertise, which of course you've had before. And I'm wondering where
that is today post recession from a development standpoint.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
We're in good shape, Rich. And we had the redevelopment platform
and we were very careful as we went in to the recession and during the recession.
We knew we needed the development folks in the department and we kept a couple of
key ones and we've added since. And we continue to look by the way. We're always
looking for quality people in that area, construction and development but we've
kept enough of a pool of activity, if you will, going with the redevelopment
pipeline and the occasional development that we feel good about where we are,
continue to look. We certainly don't feel that we're in a position where we're
short on quality staff for the extent of the pipeline we have laid out for you.
Operator
And it looks like we have some follow-up coming through from Ki Bin Kim
with SunTrust Robinson.
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
Thanks. Just a quick question, a follow up on Rich's. What do you
think -- have you guys looked at your total portfolio and just maybe put some
parameters around what you think the total redevelopment opportunity is maybe
within the next three years or so?
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
Yes, we have. There is quite a bit that's active today. I will
tell you that we'll be north for bringing about $100 million plus online in 2014.
And that number should be right around $150 million in 2015. That's kind of the
run rate we're looking at. It could obviously vary from year to year based upon
when projects are brought into service. But we've got several hundred million in
progress right now, different stages. That just means we're not just thinking
about it. We're actually doing something about it whether it's entitlements or
consents or working deals. But a good run rate would be about $150 million to
$200 million a year of activity and probably bringing in around $150 million a
year for the next few years.
Operator
And we have no further questions in queue, so I'll pass it back to DDR
CEO, Dan Hurwitz, for any final remarks.
Daniel Hurwitz - CEO
I just want to thank you all once again for joining us for our
update on what was a very busy second quarter. And hope that you will be able to
join us in Atlanta on November 4th in conjunction with NAREIT. So thanks again.
Have a good day.
Operator
Wonderful. Thank everyone for your time and your participation. And
have a great rest of the day.