Site Centers Corp (SITC) 2014 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and thank you for joining the Second

  • Quarter 2014 DDR Corp. Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). And as a reminder

  • we are recording the call for replay. And now I will pass the call over to your

  • host Ms. Meghan Finneran, Financial Analyst.

  • Meghan Finneran - Financial Analyst

  • Thanks, Ryan. Good morning and thank you for joining us. On

  • today's call, you will hear from CEO, Dan Hurwitz; Senior Executive Vice

  • President of Leasing and Development, Paul Freddo; and President and CFO, David

  • Oakes.

  • Please be aware that certain of our statement may be forward looking. Although we

  • believe such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, you should

  • understand that these statement are subject to risk and uncertainties and actual

  • results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additional

  • information about such risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to

  • differ may be found in the press release issued yesterday and filed with the SEC

  • on Form 8-K and Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013 as amended.

  • In addition, we will discussing non-GAAP financial measures on today's call

  • including FFO and operating FFO. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial

  • measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our

  • earnings press release issued yesterday. This release and our quarterly financial

  • supplements are available on our website at www.ddr.com.

  • Last, we will be observing a one-question limit during the Q&A portion of our

  • call in order to give everyone the opportunity to participate. If you have

  • additional questions, please rejoin the queue.

  • At this time, it's my pleasure to introduce our CEO, Dan Hurwitz.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • Thank you, Meghan. Good morning everyone and thank you for

  • joining us today. I'd like to start today's call by reiterating that we are very

  • pleased with the consistency and the strength of the operating results achieved

  • during the second quarter, and the strategic transactions we announced since our

  • last earnings release. Our second quarter results mark a pivotal point in the

  • continued execution of our strategic plan as we closed on the sale of our

  • investment in Brazil, identified an attractive user proceeds and formed our third

  • joint venture with Blackstone to acquire prime assets and posted strong operating

  • results with more than 3 million square feet of leasing completed in the quarter

  • and new leasing spreads of 19%. While the near-term benefits of these

  • accomplishments are obvious, the longer-term positive impact of this quarter will

  • be realized for many years to come and significantly enhances our ability to

  • focus on our core business.

  • As the back-to-school season approaches, I'd like to take a moment to address the

  • significance of this selling season, the impact it has on our retailers and the

  • trends we are following in the market. Back-to-school was the second largest

  • retail season of the year at a time when retailers are highly invested in their

  • inventory level as goods have been purchased for both back-to-school and the

  • Christmas Holiday by this point in time. Over the past few weeks we have seen a

  • steady increase in retail sales due to improve weather, pent-up demand and those

  • increased inventory levels at each of our retailers. As a result, retailers are

  • beginning back-to-school sales earlier than in past years to further incentivize

  • consumers to shop and realize gains and market share. Not all sales and

  • promotional activity however should be viewed as an indicator that retail sales

  • are in a slump and tenants are getting anxious to simply move product. In fact,

  • most early promotions are well-planned and margins will be maintained for those

  • retailers. With the highly promotional 2013 holiday season still lingering, the

  • consumer's unwillingness to pay full price and the necessity of offering

  • verifiable value, retailers are carefully planning their sales and product

  • offerings as promotions remain the primary motivation for consumer spending.

  • In regard to merchandising trends, we continue to observer strong demand for

  • branded goods at discount prices further demonstrating our preference for

  • merchants offering this product type. For example, we are witnessing value-

  • oriented retailers such as Kohl's offering a much broader assortment of branded

  • goods this back-to-school season. The back-to-school season is indicative of the

  • coming holiday season and it will be very important to identify which retails won

  • consumer dollars and which lost market share. After a long winter and spring and

  • the slow transition into summer, the next few months will surely be an exciting

  • time to study retail trends and follow merchandising strategies. Rest assured we

  • will be spending a lot of time surveying the tenant universe through a variety of

  • store visits.

  • As we focus on the delivery of goods to the consumer, it is impossible and

  • imprudent not to consider the impact of technology and the disruption it has had

  • on the retail landscape over the past several years. Technology in retail has

  • been and continues to be a significant topic of discussion, and I'd like to take

  • a few minutes to address the confluence of technology in the brick-and-mortar

  • retail operations.

  • As we continue to observe the lines of distinction between the physical store and

  • the virtual world blur, the retail industry is steadily undergoing a progressive

  • transformation that is providing consumers with more convenience and value than

  • ever before. From innovative mobile technology that continues to drive foot

  • traffic and sales at bricks-and-mortar locations to buy online pick up in store

  • and ship from store initiatives, brick-and-mortar retailers are continuously

  • evolving their operational capacity. To date, retail efforts show real promise as

  • they not only translate to enhanced operational efficiencies but also

  • progressively fulfilling shopping expectations of the consumer.

  • Overall, the impact of technology on our universe of retailers has been

  • exceedingly positive. As the most successful and profitable retails of the

  • industry continue to be those that have established both a strong physical and

  • online presence and are striving to achieve an integrated omni-channel operating

  • platform. One concept we continue to observe growth and expansion is that of buy

  • online, pick up in store. Examples of tenants within our portfolio offering and

  • continuing to roll out the convenience of buy online pick up in store include

  • Wal-Mart, Target, Bed, Bath and Beyond, PetSmart, Dick's Sporting Goods, Best

  • Buy, Home Depot, Lowe's, DSW, Nordstrom Rack and Whole Foods.

  • We are also seeing our retail partners growing their ship-from-store initiatives

  • which will allow stores to double as distribution facilities and offer retailers

  • operational efficiencies that were previously unrecognized. Even fast casual

  • restaurant tenants are realizing the advantages of investing in technology for

  • the benefit of their brick-and-mortar operations, offering consumers the ability

  • to place online and mobile orders for convenient pick up, Panera Bread and

  • Chipotle represent two innovative fast casual operators leading the

  • transformation within the restaurant sector. We continue to see significant

  • investment activity from retailers and restaurant operators as they aim to

  • provide consumers with desirable experiences associated with both the physical

  • and the virtual realms.

  • It is important to note that in the vast majority of cases, technology

  • integration in the retail industry is focused on enhancing the bricks-and-mortar

  • experience, whether synchronizing a website with local store inventory for

  • successful buy online pick up in store fulfillment, investing in an algorithm to

  • launch an efficient ship from store program or developing a mobile application

  • with an array of in-store capabilities, retailers investing in technology are

  • directly investing in their physical presence.

  • As our tenants in the retail industry as a whole continues to adapt and evolve in

  • an ever changing environment, so too has our portfolio of prime power centers. As

  • previously announced, we formed our third joint venture with Blackstone to

  • acquire 76 shopping centers from ARCP for $1.975 billion. The 16.4 million square

  • foot portfolio primarily consist of prime power centers located in large markets

  • like Los Angeles, Houston, Denver, Chicago, Atlanta, Washington DC and Phoenix

  • and is occupied by high-quality retailers including Whole Foods, Trader Joe's,

  • The Fresh Market, Costco, Target, Wal-Mart, Kohl's, PetSmart, Dick's Sporting

  • Goods, Bed, Bath and Beyond, and the TJX Companies. Within an expected closing of

  • mid-September, this transaction further enhances our partnership with a best-of-

  • breed capital partner as we again team up to create value in ways that align with

  • our respective investment philosophies. This transformation showcases our

  • continued ability to efficiently recycle capital and further advance our

  • portfolio transformation.

  • Having an underwriting history that dates back to several months prior to deal

  • announcement, we have identified significant opportunities to enhance the value

  • of the portfolio through active portfolio management. We are confident in our

  • ability to generate outsized asset level growth by leveraging our proven

  • operating platform and have appropriately structured our investment to produce

  • attractive risk-adjusted returns while securing access to acquisition

  • opportunities in the future. We look forward to maximizing value for our

  • shareholders as we capitalize on the many opportunities available to us through

  • the newly announced portfolio, our existing portfolio and the future

  • opportunities that we are currently pursuing in the market. At this point, I'd

  • like to turn the call over to Paul.

  • Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development

  • Thanks, Dan. Strong leasing momentum continued in the second quarter

  • resulting in 364 new deals and renewals for 3.1 million square feet matching the

  • highest quarterly deal volume in Company history. Similarly, spreads were also

  • indicative of the strong leasing environment with an 18.8% pro rata new deal

  • spread and 7.5% pro rata renewal spread. Our 2.4 million square feet of renewals

  • represents that highest quarterly volume in Company history and is further

  • evidence that retailers are focused on securing high-quality locations in prime

  • power centers.

  • While I typically spend some time addressing the supply-and-demand dynamics, we

  • all know that it remains heavily in the landlords' favor as demonstrated by our

  • quarterly results. Instead, I'd like to focus on how we're taking advantage of

  • this environment to continue to grow NOI and improve portfolio quality through

  • our previously announced Project Accelerate initiative as well as ground up

  • development.

  • As we announced in late May and discussed with many of you at NAREIT Project

  • Accelerate is allowing us to collaborate with retailers in the books,

  • electronics, toys, office and traditional department store categories to regain

  • control of locations in advance of natural lease expirations where we can then

  • re-merchandise our assets with market share winning tenants and recognize rental

  • upside of 30% to 40%.

  • As we have discussed before, this is an ongoing multi-year initiative and we

  • continue to work with these retailers on a regular basis to right-size their real

  • estate footprints. As such, in addition to the 21 previously announced recaptured

  • boxes representing 550,000 square feet of prime power center space, we have

  • finalized deals to recapture an additional five boxes totaling 160,000 square

  • feet in prime assets in Boston, Miami, Charleston and Rowley .

  • It's important to remember that while we're finalizing deals in 2014 to

  • proactively recapture space, the benefits of the remerchandising and the mark-to

  • -market opportunities will commence in the second half of 2015. Additionally,

  • with the ability to know for certain which spaces we are recapturing, we have the

  • ability to sign leases in advance of store closings, limiting the impact to our

  • lease rate and resulting in minimal downtime.

  • While we are certainly sensitive to our retail partners who have not yet informed

  • their employees of specific store closing, I would like to provide a few examples

  • of our success with this initiative. In the books category, we have several great

  • examples underway. In one instance at a 530,000 square foot prime power center

  • we're backfilling a 24,000 square foot Barnes & Noble with Ulta and GAP Factory

  • Outlet at a blended comp of 100%. This will enhance the center's overall

  • merchandise mix with two best-in-class retailers, drive NAV and provide enhanced

  • credit quality of cash flow.

  • In a separate 165,000 square foot prime power center, we are replacing a 23,000

  • square foot Barnes with a new Fresh Market at a 20% positive rent comp and

  • introducing a grocery component to the center driving daily traffic. This will

  • result in further upside in adjacent space as those leases come up for renewal

  • and reduce the overall cap rate of the asset due to the market's infatuation with

  • grocers.

  • In a final example, which takes place in a 1 million square foot prime power

  • center we are splitting the 28,000 square foot Barnes box into several units

  • featuring White House Black Market, Five Below and Carter's resulting in a

  • significant positive rent comp of over 130%, adding exciting new retailers to the

  • mix and outperforming the original underwriting assumed at acquisition in 2013.

  • In the office category, we have been strategically partnering with Office Depot

  • as they right size their footprint. One example is the recapturing of a 23,000

  • square foot Office Max box at a 220,000 square foot prime power center acquired

  • in 2013 providing the spark for a larger redevelopment. After recapturing this

  • box, we will proceed with the downsizing of the adjacent and oversized DSW. With

  • the Office Max recaptured and DSW downsized, we can then accommodate a Nordstrom

  • Rack, dramatically improving the merchandise mix, credit quality and traffic at

  • our center. Additionally, the new Nordstrom Rack deal represents an 80% rent comp

  • on the Office Max space and 40% positive comp on DSW space.

  • A second example is in a 435,000 square foot prime power center acquired in 2012

  • where we will recapture and split an Office Depot box for Ulta and Carter's

  • achieving a blended comp of 100%, and driving both stability and growth well

  • beyond our initial underwriting of this asset. While these are just a few

  • examples of the types of deals we are making, they demonstrate that by

  • recapturing below-market leases we are driving incremental growth, improving the

  • credit quality of cash flow, further positioning our asset as dominant shopping

  • centers, enhancing the merchandise mix offerings and eliminating potential risk

  • with certain retailers. The list of retailers we are dealing with to back fill

  • the recaptured space goes well beyond those named above and includes Shoe

  • Carnival, Cost Plus World Market, Total Wine, Bed, Bath and Beyond, Academy

  • Sports, Ross, Marshalls, HomeGoods and many more.

  • The concept of incentivizing our leasing team to create vacancy in highly unusual

  • in our business, but it speaks to the opportunities presented by the current

  • supply-demand dynamic and the dramatic transformation of our portfolio quality

  • over the past several years. Also directly related to strong retail demand, one

  • of the key takeaways from our 1,000 plus meetings at this year's ICSC in Las

  • Vegas was that retailers are now willing to commit to new development projects

  • without requiring a major tenant. As a result, we've made exciting steps towards

  • effectively monetizing our existing land bank through ground-up development and

  • I'd like to take a moment to update you on that progress

  • For those in attendance at our Charlotte Investor Day this past October, you will

  • recall Belgate Shopping Center which represented our first ground-up development

  • in over four years. Belgate opened ahead of schedule in May of 2013 and is a 100%

  • leased, 900,000 square foot power center located in Charlotte anchored by IKEA

  • and a complimentary line up of junior anchors including Marshalls, Ulta, Old

  • Navy, PetSmart, Cost Plus World Market, Hobby Lobby, Shoe Carnival. Given the

  • project's success, we are now finalizing a second phase of this project which

  • will represent 75,000 square feet of space occupied with other best-in-class

  • junior anchors while continuing to achieve an unlevered cash on cost return in

  • excess of 10%.

  • As you saw earlier this month, we announced the grand opening of Seabrook

  • Commons, our most recent ground-up development project located Seabrook, New

  • Hampshire, a northern suburb of Boston. Seabrook Commons is a 96% lease, 380,000

  • square foot power center anchored by Wal-Mart, Dick's Sporting Goods, PetSmart,

  • Michael's, Ulta, Famous Footwear and Five Below and includes a complementary

  • restaurant line of consisting of Panera, Outback Steakhouse and Noodles &

  • Company. The opening of Seabrook Commons which achieved an 8% unlevered return on

  • incremental capital results in the second consecutive year that we have added a

  • fully stabilized prime power center to the portfolio through ground-up

  • development.

  • In a few weeks, we will officially break ground on Gilford Commons, a 130,000

  • square foot power center consisting of three junior anchors including a specialty

  • grocer and 40,000 square feet of shop and specialty space located just east of

  • New Haven, Connecticut. With a planned opening in the second half of 2015 and

  • projected unlevered incremental yield of 8%, this project will represent our

  • third consecutive year of delivering a new ground-up development project.

  • Lastly, we will be breaking ground on a multi-phase development project in

  • Orlando, Florida later this fall with an expected opening of the first phase in

  • fall of 2015. Once complete Lee Vista will span 450,000 square feet and will be

  • anchored by theater offer a lineup of best-in-class junior anchor retailers and

  • consist of an array of high-quality restaurant operators. This mix will take

  • advantage of an abundance of surrounding office space, dense hotel offerings and

  • close proximity to Orlando International Airport. Lee Vista will represent our

  • fourth consecutive year of delivering a new group-up development project and we'

  • re projecting an 8.5% yield on incremental invested capital. These strategic

  • development projects enable us to assist the external growth aspirations of our

  • retail partners, monetize our land bank and achieve attractive returns on

  • incremental invested capital.

  • As the supply-and-demand dynamic continues to heavily favor the landlord

  • community, we are accelerating our efforts to take advantage by being extremely

  • aware that our industry is cyclical and opportunities are often fleeting. As

  • highlighted by Project Accelerate, our recent ability to generate new NOI through

  • ground-up development and our previously discussed $1 billion redevelopment

  • pipeline, we are continuing to find creative ways to grow NOI, improve

  • merchandise mix, enhance credit quality of cash flow and expand the overall

  • market share of our portfolio, all in an effort to not only benefit from the

  • current landlord favorable environment but also to deliver long-term stability in

  • any economic environment. And I will now turn the call over to David.

  • David Oakes - President, CFO

  • Thanks, Paul. Operating FFO was $101.3 million or $0.28 per share

  • for the second quarter, including non-operating items FFO for the quarter was

  • $82.1 million or $0.23 per share. Non-operating items primarily consisted of

  • impairments related to land held for development that is currently being sold.

  • The second quarter was again representative of DDR's execution of its strategic

  • transactional and balance sheet objectives. First, we closed on the acquisition

  • of four prime power centers, three of which were sourced off market for $265

  • million. These acquisitions were focused in the top 30 MSAs and included anchors

  • such as Target, Costco and Whole Foods.

  • The most significant acquisition was the Maxwell, a 240,000 square foot prime

  • plus power center locate Chicago South Loop. The Maxwell features an impressive

  • lineup of junior anchors including Nordstrom Rack, Dick's Sporting Goods and T.J.

  • Maxx sits directly adjacent to Whole Foods and offers a demographic profile of

  • household incomes of $105,000 and population of 681,000 people in the trade area.

  • DDR previously made a $21 million mezzanine loan on the project that was

  • accompanied by advantageous acquisition rights allowing for a seamless

  • acquisition prior to completion and stabilization, with additional upside for DDR

  • given the 90% lease rate. We closed on the acquisition in May for $118 million

  • and we expect the majority of the NOI to come online in the fourth quarter of

  • 2014. The acquisition was partially financed by the issuance of 1 million OP

  • units in order to provide tax efficiency and the remainder of the acquisition was

  • financed through asset sale proceeds.

  • Another acquisition that I would like to highlight is Waterstone Crossing, a

  • 425,000 square foot prime power center in Cincinnati that is anchored by Target

  • and Costco. DDR sourced the acquisition off market as a result of a strong local

  • relationship which allowed us to achieve much more attractive pricing than a

  • marketed sale for a class A center in a large market, providing for significant

  • net asset value creation before we even plugged the center into our platform. DDR

  • not only achieved favorable pricing but we will look to increase the yields by

  • bringing in top tier organic grocer to the asset in the coming months to replace

  • a weaker merchant.

  • We also announced that we have formed a 95/5 joint venture with Blackstone to

  • acquire 76 assets from American Reality Capital Partners for $1.975 billion. The

  • acquisition is scheduled to close in late 3Q, subject to loan assumptions.

  • Consistent with previous acquisitions and joint-ventures with Blackstone, DDR

  • secured acquisition rights to the top tier assets which represent 10 of the 76

  • assets with over 40% of the total value. As Dan mentioned, this transaction

  • continues to build on our deep relationship with Blackstone and highlights the

  • partnership's ability to source off-market opportunities below market pricing.

  • On the domestic disposition side we sold 11 operating assets and six land parcels

  • for $51 million at DDR share and we currently have $335 million of operating and

  • non-producing assets under contract for sale. Additionally, we also completed the

  • sale of our Brazilian investment for net proceeds of $344 million, a transaction

  • that dramatically simplifies our Company and decreases our risk profile. The

  • remaining wholly-owned non-prime assets now consist of only 32 assets, down from

  • nearly 200 shopping centers at the end of 2009, and all of which are either being

  • marketed for sale or a subject to either pending leases or anchor rollover in the

  • short term.

  • Regarding disposition pricing, for the full year 2014, we estimate a blended cap

  • rate in the low 7% range comprised of mid-7% pricing on operating assets that we

  • are selling into a strong market as well non-producing land.

  • On the capital market side, DDR also announced the closing of a $75 million

  • nonrecourse mortgage loan secured by Plaza Escorial the 636,000 square foot

  • shopping center in Puerto Rico. The loan was completed with a leading life

  • insurance company and included a 7-year term and a fixed interest rate of under

  • 3.6%. The financing highlights the strong property level supply-demand

  • fundamentals and the attractive financing environment that continues to exist on

  • the island despite the macroeconomic headwinds.

  • In July, DDR paid off a $304 million balance of the (Inaudible) loan the

  • previously secured 27 prime assets and a loan to value in the 30% range further

  • reinforcing our desire to grow the size of our unencumbered pool, which now

  • stands at $6.5 billion, up from $3.6 billion in 2009. Disposition proceeds on the

  • Plaza Escorial loan were immediately utilized to repay the TALF debt. However,

  • we will look to issue long duration unsecured bonds in the second half of 2014 to

  • replace the CMBS debt at a comparable rate

  • Finally, as a result of the significant transactional and capital markets

  • activity, I would like to address DDR's sources and uses of capital for the

  • remainder of 2014 and the subsequent impact on operating FFO guidance. As we

  • currently stand, we are on target to exceed our current guidance for both

  • acquisitions and disposition activity. Year-to-date, we have closed or are under

  • contract to acquire $296 million of one off acquisitions plus $384 million

  • associated with DDR share of the ARCP acquisition totaling $680 million.

  • Disposition activity including assets under contract includes $548 million

  • domestically and $344 million in net proceeds associated with the sale of our

  • Brazilian investment totaling $892 million. This transaction activity highlights

  • DDR's desire to be a net seller in 2014 given the strong pricing environment and

  • further reinforces the lack of need for equity issue for either transactional

  • activity or debt repayment for the remainder of the year.

  • We have heard some recent commentary that encourages us to remind analysts and

  • investors that neither investment nor refinancing activity will be funded from

  • our line of credit for a long period of time. So it is much more appropriate

  • (Inaudible) long-term debt issuance in the next several quarters. At this point,

  • I'll stop and turn the call over to Dan for closing remarks.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • Thanks, David. Before turning the call over to questions, I would

  • like to let you know that we are planning to host a property tour in Atlanta on

  • November 4th in conjunction with NAREIT. As many of you know, Atlanta represents

  • our largest market by square footage and second largest market by base rent and

  • highlights numerous assets that clearly illustrate our investment thesis.

  • Following the tour, we will host a dinner during which you will have unlimited

  • access to our senior management team as well as our local management team from

  • our Atlanta office which is responsible for 116 assets totaling more than 30

  • million square feet in Georgia, Alabama, the Carolinas, Tennessee and Virginia.

  • We look forward to a productive day and exchanging thoughts with those of you who

  • can make the trip to Atlanta and would like to join us.

  • Again, thank you for joining us today. I'll now turn the call over to the

  • operator for your questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator instructions) Our first questions comes through from Christy

  • McElroy with Citi.

  • Christy McElroy - Analyst

  • Good morning everyone. As retailers build out online pickup in

  • store and other incentives to tie e-commerce to brick and mortars, Dan, as you

  • talk about are you finding any changes in retailer are looking at their space

  • needs in a specific market as stores become increasingly a method for

  • distribution?

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • That's a great question, Christy, because it is something we

  • discussed with a number of our retail partners now. And it's really not a

  • function of space needs. It's how they're going to configure the space to make

  • the experience pleasant for the customer. Right now, as many of you know, in

  • order to pick up goods or to experience the shop online pick up in store program,

  • you either have to go into the store specifically and at which point there's

  • someone to assist you to your car with whatever good it is which is not really

  • convenient or you have to go to the back of the store where the dock is and

  • unpleasant things like dumpster and bailers and things of that nature. So the

  • actual physical presence of the store is in question and how they layout the

  • store and how they make a customer pick up experience pleasant is a topic of

  • conversation for sure. And there's no great answer yet to how to do that,

  • although, one of the things that we are seeing is for those of you who are old

  • enough to remember the Sears catalog and JCPenny catalog and Montgomery Ward

  • catalog, et cetera, where they had specific areas for catalog people to pick up

  • goods at the store, that does give you a clue as to probably we're going back to

  • the future if you will in a lot of those types of environment.

  • So I do think that we're going to continue dialog with retailers on this. I don't

  • think there's an easy answer to it. But I think there will be not necessarily

  • square-footage reductions or expansions, but there will be different space layout

  • to try to create an environment that is exceedingly convenient for the consumer

  • to come to the site, go to the store, pick up the goods, get in and get out

  • quickly with the merchandise. And I think it will require us to make physical

  • changes to some of our shopping centers and physical changes to the overall

  • experience in the near future.

  • Christy McElroy - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes through from Ross Nussbaum with UBS.

  • Jeremy Metz - Analyst

  • Good morning. Jeremy Metz on with Ross. You guys talked about a

  • number of developments you have going on. Can you just talk about what sort of

  • spreads versus acquisitions you are underwriting today? Is that tighter than say

  • a year ago? And then just more broadly where institutional assets are trading on

  • a cap rate basis today and if that's compressed further?

  • David Oakes - President, CFO

  • Sure. As we referenced a little bit in the opening commentary and

  • certainly hopefully shows up in our actual transaction activity, the private

  • market for quality shopping centers is extremely hot, it's extremely competitive.

  • There is a reasonable amount of product being listed, but it's being overwhelmed

  • by the amount of capital that's looking at the space. And so the acquisition

  • environment is very competitive, very challenging, that's why you saw our

  • activity for this quarter dramatically more focused on off market opportunities,

  • more opportunities where we had some sort of advantage on the deal and that's why

  • we were pleased with the acquisitions that we were able to complete this quarter.

  • That's why you don't see us out actively winning a great majority of the deals

  • that we looked at. We'd say at this point, quality power centers are clearly

  • trading no higher than the low six cap range and seeing many, many more deals not

  • just in the beloved coastal markets but in a broader list of markets and that

  • trading below 6% cap rate. And so an extremely competitive environment for

  • acquisitions.

  • We have sought other places to invest our capital. In some cases, it just means a

  • timing issue where we're patient and we're disciplined and we'll wait to put that

  • capital out where we do find opportunities. In other cases it means that capital

  • gets redeployed in a redevelopment activity which we've talked about quite a bit

  • or some of the new development activity that Paul referenced where I think

  • consistently we are talking about getting 250 basis points or more of expected

  • return beyond where we think those assets would trade in the private market.

  • Obviously, there is some development risk in the projects we're talking about,

  • but we're more discussing projects where we already own the land, is already

  • entitled land, we think you're talking about a considerable development spread

  • there where you're only taking a fraction of the traditional development risk if

  • we were to be going out and buying unentitled land to work that to the process

  • where we think we would need an even wider spread for that sort of activity.

  • Jeremy Metz - Analyst

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb with Sandler O'Neill.

  • Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst

  • Good morning out there. Just a question, if you look at a

  • number of the expanding concept like SoulCycle and the ballet concept and yoga,

  • et cetera. And then you also see that expanding dental chains and things of that

  • sort. Are retailers more accepting of those sorts of concepts co-locating at the

  • shopping centers or are they still resistant because of legacy parking concerns

  • or other issues like that.

  • Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development

  • It's gotten better Alex in terms of the retailer's acceptance. You

  • mentioned a couple of different concepts, so I would have a separate dental from

  • fitness especially some of the smaller fitness users like SoulCycle. The

  • retailers have gotten to accept the L.A. Fitness of the world certainly not some

  • of the huge, lifetime fitness type units. But fitness in general has become very

  • common in a lot of shopping centers, well-planned and well-positioned is the key.

  • That's the comment we get back a lot of the time when we're asking for consent

  • for some of the ready to wear merchants or other anchors in our centers. As long

  • as they are positioned properly, seemed to have their own parking, not a terrible

  • influence on the parking right in front of the store, they're accepting.

  • Dental, medical, that' a different thing you're going to have some centers where

  • there is some small shops base, or some outline space that makes sense for. But

  • we're not excited about putting that in line with our traditional retail centers

  • anywhere and then we'd like to keep it in an off location if you will. And again,

  • I don't think you can compare the two uses.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • Yes, I think the short answer, Alex, is yes. People are more --

  • the retailers are more accepting. But particularly for the medical use, we're not

  • more accepting. And while certainly there are certain centers where that maybe

  • appropriate, in most cases we've determined that those are centers that are non-

  • prime and those are centers that we should sell. And so we are not actively in

  • that market because once you go non-retail for a shopping -- obviously there are

  • certain services fitness is one and there's other spaces that are difficult to

  • lease that may be appropriate. But once you go to the medical field and that

  • becomes a major priority for a shopping center, it's going to be very difficult

  • to maintain the retail presence and the market share gains and achieve market

  • share gains that you like. And we typically put those centers on the sale list

  • and we've had success obviously selling them. And as you can tell by our leasing

  • numbers without doing those deals, we're doing just fine. Leasing to the people

  • that we want to lease to. So we really haven't needed to go to that level. And I

  • don't suspect that we will anytime soon.

  • Operator

  • And our next question comes through from Craig Schmidt, Bank of

  • America.

  • Craig Schmidt - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. The top national retailers continue to

  • grow its market share of the total sales, I'm just wondering what this means by

  • shopping center format and particularly what that might mean for small shops in

  • shopping centers.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • Well, you want to see in our case anyway, Craig, where the small

  • shops are becoming less relevant. The power center format, let me start with

  • that, we don't have a lot of small shop space as we think about it in small

  • grocery anchor or community centers. So we've been very focused on taking it to

  • the point you're talking about where we're consolidating shops space, bringing in

  • some of the national anchors, converting 3,000 foot units to one 9,000 foot unit.

  • So you will see a reduction in it. I think the key in our business and certainly

  • the way I look at it is, how much shop space should any center have, right? And

  • it's not going to be a big component when you talk about the power center format.

  • So we're going to focus on the national retailers. We're going to focus on the

  • large 10,000 and up primarily. Certainly there'll be some smaller that complement

  • the mix. But we will see less and less shop space. And that is a little bit of a

  • function of what's happening with the business. There's always going to be room

  • for service and food, fast food particularly, some of the cell phone operators.

  • So you will see shop space in those sort of categories. But in what we're doing

  • and what we're focused on, we're not going to see a heavy concentration of the

  • shop space as we used to know it.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs

  • Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. As Dollar Tree is on your list of largest

  • tenants and I'm sure you also have exposure to Family Dollar. Could you talk

  • about any impact you expect the merge of those two companies to have on their

  • square-footage plans?

  • David Oakes - President, CFO

  • Yes, Dollar Tree is quite a large player in our portfolio. But there

  • is only one Family Dollar, so impact in terms of the merger. And we think it's a

  • great idea. In fact we'd like to see this growth exposure in some of our markets.

  • Eighty-six is the number of Dollar Trees we have today. So again, just with one

  • Family Dollar, we're up to 87. And again, no impact on the merger in terms of

  • closing.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • And we think the merger is a positive thing. When you have

  • multiple retailers in the similar category with a similar pricing strategy, it

  • makes sense for them to join forces. We've seen it with Office Max and Office

  • Depot. We thought that was a good idea. And we certainly think that this is a

  • good idea as well. We think that in general, though, one of the reasons why these

  • events occur is because if you look at the companies individually, both of them

  • had very, very high aspirational new store GLA growth strategies. Both of which

  • were going to be extremely difficult to achieve on an independent basis

  • particularly as we have rising occupancy rates. We have nothing new being built.

  • And finding the square footage necessary to sustain those growth aspirations was

  • going to be very, very difficult and I think near impossible.

  • So I think as the combined chain looks for its growth opportunities, it is more

  • likely to succeed in the guided square footage that they have planned than they

  • would individually. And I think that was a big part of the conversation that

  • leads to the merger because retailers as you know have to grow internally or

  • externally. But internally is tough. Internally is tough in a non-inflationary

  • environment. So external growth is actually critical for a successful retailer

  • and growing market shares is absolutely critical. And independently when very

  • little is being built and the supply-demand dynamic is they heavily favor the

  • landlord a joining of the forces in that effort makes a lot of sense.

  • Operator

  • Next is Jonathan Pong with Robert Baird.

  • Jonathan Pong - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys. Dave, S&P has a positive outlook on your

  • credit rating. Can you share anything about how those discussions are going is it

  • considering an upgrade to BBB and then what's the biggest hurdle to getting that

  • done?

  • David Oakes - President, CFO

  • Yes, I mean the outlook is obviously very important to where their

  • head is at in terms of their bent to continue to have the rating more positively

  • reflect our credit. They do very clearly their own research. We try to be as open

  • in front of them as possible with our disclosure that we share with everyone as

  • well as with specific rating agency business and disclosures. So have no secret

  • intel as to what their plans are, but obviously I think we keep making

  • considerable progress, de-risking the Company. That includes lowering debt to

  • EBITDA, but a much broader list of de-risking activities like the Brazilian exit.

  • And so we think as we continue to make progress, the rating agencies have

  • recognized that we think they'll continue to recognize that maybe even more

  • importantly, I think if you look at where our bonds trade the fixed income

  • investment community has certainly been supported of our name that I think

  • positions as well when we choose to return to the bond market.

  • Operator

  • Next comes through from Albert Lin with Morgan Stanley.

  • Albert Lin - Analyst

  • Good morning guys. Year-to-date, I think you guys are attracting

  • around 3.2% same stores NOI growth which is slightly towards the higher end of

  • your full year guidance, 2.5% to 3.5%. I'm curious what your thoughts are for the

  • back half of the year. And how long do you think you can sustain this level of

  • plus 3% NOI growth?

  • David Oakes - President, CFO

  • We're please with that activity for the first half of the year. I

  • would call it very consistent to modestly ahead of that guidance range. And we

  • think it continues to be achievable for the second half of the year. I think

  • everything we talked about for years with the upgrade of the portfolio quality

  • with the upgrade of the underlying tenant base was meant to create a portfolio

  • that could deliver this. And while there is much debate in the past as to whether

  • our portfolio quality warranted pricing on par with the other shopping center

  • companies, I think as results show up, it becomes harder and harder to justify

  • the discounted which we trade.

  • When you see that the underlying cash flow does not only grow on part and better

  • than peers, but also I think represented the sort of consistency that is

  • important to us and we think important to what stocks get attracted multiples or

  • NAV premiums or small NAV discounts over time. And so we're pleased with the

  • activity to date. We think everything that we put in place with the portfolio as

  • well as the leasing team not only the caliber of the people we have but the

  • mandate that they very clearly have from all of us to continue to drive growth to

  • focus on project to accelerate, to find those opportunities where we can create

  • additional rental spreads, creating near-term lease roll over, improve the

  • quality and value of the portfolio, but also absolutely push same store NOI. Now

  • counter intuitively, it may have a slight negative impact in 2014 where we're

  • creating vacancy or at least in the first half of 2015. But we think even with

  • that, we can maintain very attractive same store NOI growth on an absolute basis

  • in this 2.5% to 3.5% range and I think very attractive same store NOI growth

  • relative to the peer group.

  • Operator

  • Next question comes from Jason White from Green Street Advisors.

  • Jason White - Analyst

  • Good morning guys. Just a follow up on the previous discussion over

  • (Inaudible) SoulCycle and some of those tenants in your centers. How easy it to

  • add the specialty grocers with the parking they demand, is it difficult to find

  • the place to fit them in your centers or is it pretty easy to restructure some of

  • the other retailer's expectation?

  • Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development

  • It's actually been quite easy Jason to fit them in. Most of the

  • specialty grocers we've done have been takeovers of existing space. Like the one

  • example I gave with a Fresh Market will be taking a Barnes location, fit into the

  • exact footprint, no expansion, no reduction necessary. And Barnes and some of the

  • other spaces we have recaptured, they were very demanding in the amount of

  • parking in front of their stores initially. So we've got plenty of parking and

  • then we're anxious to fill those slots with folks like the specialty grocers. But

  • we don't see any issue in terms of the parking demand at all. In fact, many of

  • the centers we've built, we're probably over parked and now coming in with

  • somebody who's going to use up a little bit of that parking is a great add to the

  • center.

  • Operator

  • Next we have Todd Thomas from KeyBanc.

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks, good morning. Dan, in light of your comments around the

  • retail environment, you noted that you're spending a lot of time analyzing

  • retailers promotional campaigns and inventory levels and merchandising. And we've

  • seen a modest uptick in bankruptcies and closures this year relative to prior

  • years. Your comment seems to be focused more on the importance of this back-to-

  • school and holiday season. I was just wondering, do you feel that this season is

  • more important than in recent years for many retailers, maybe a tipping point of

  • sorts or a situation where things shake loose a bit with regard to closure or

  • even bankruptcies. I was just curious if you could elaborate a bit on your

  • comments.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • Sure. I don't think this season is any more important than any

  • other season from that perspective. Particularly because I think in general, if

  • you look at the bulk of our cash flow and the credit quality of our cash flow,

  • the tenants are going into this holiday season in good shape. Balance sheets are

  • in good shape. I think they've figured out obviously, over the last several

  • years, regardless of the news we heard yesterday, they figured out how to operate

  • in a low GDP environment with modest wage growth and modest employment growth.

  • And I think they're well prepared for the holiday season and well prepared for

  • back to school.

  • I think what's interesting though and we did a property tour up in New England

  • the last two days. And one of the things you are seeing is that inventory levels

  • and promotional activity in retailers is early. It was early for back-to-school

  • and I suspect we'll see the same thing now for the holiday season. We've always

  • waited sort of for after Thanksgiving and then everything moved to before

  • Thanksgiving and I think everything is accelerating a week early or two early.

  • And I think that's a result of the inventory levels. I think it's a result of the

  • cooperation between the vendor and the retailer and the fact that the consumer

  • isn't skittish. The consumer smart and the consumer doesn't like to pay full

  • price and they need to be incentivized to shop and the retailers are figuring out

  • how to do that.

  • So I don't really think this is any more important than any other important

  • selling season. But I do think that you will see some changes in inventory

  • levels. You will see some changes in promotional activity. I also think that we

  • saw some changes in merchandise mix because of the importance of branded goods

  • off price. And that's just something to watch, to see if it works quite frankly.

  • To see if it's the right move and to see if that's what the consumer is looking

  • for as we head into the two most important shopping seasons which obviously are

  • back to school and holiday.

  • Operator

  • Next is Tayo Okusanya with Jefferies.

  • Tayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • Good morning everyone. I just want to go back to follow your

  • comments about project accelerate. I appreciate the details and some of the

  • examples you shared. I was just curious though, if we take a step back and think

  • about 21 recaptured boxes and the five that are being recaptured. Of those, how

  • many are released at this point and how many have you actually physically taken

  • back at this point.

  • Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development

  • Physically we've only taken back one but they're happening, they

  • will be staggered events and that's part of the beauty of this. Part of our deals

  • on the 26 now are controlling exactly when we will we get the space back and made

  • the point that we want to be in a position where we're signing leases with the

  • replacement tenant prior to physically getting the space back. There will be a

  • few more in the third quarter, several more by the end of this year. Pretty

  • decent wave of recaptures early in 2015. And David mentioned, obviously, there

  • will be a little bit of a hit with that.

  • The stuff we haven't captured, we have certainly concrete ideas on every one.

  • Deals are not done with all 26 but we're recapturing for a reason. We want that

  • space. And so in many cases -- and if I just had to give a percentage I'd tell

  • you 50%. We've got deals soon to be executed and the others are in LOI and

  • negotiation stages but very comfortable with the space. We won't trigger the

  • recapture until we ready, minimizing downtime, obviously getting a replacement

  • tenant open as soon as possible. But then the upside is very dramatic, and as

  • you could probably tell from the script and what talk about NAREIT and at other

  • times this is a program that the entire leasing team is unbelievably excited

  • about. This is creating space in occupied centers and bringing in those best in

  • class retailers that we want to complement the mix and to grow the portfolio. I

  • will give you an example that just occurred to me yesterday. One of the examples

  • I gave where we were recapturing an Office Max downsizing the DSW and bringing in

  • Nordstrom Rack. We have an automotive use in that center that doesn't fit and

  • very low rent. And we went to them very recently just to downsize and

  • (Inaudible) make us an offer to take us out and we absolutely will. They adjacent

  • to Whole Foods. The upside potential in a space like that not one of the original

  • 90 boxes we targeted, but that is what is going to happen with this initiative.

  • We are going to find other opportunities we haven't even though of, so extremely

  • exciting

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • I think it's very important to note to Paul's point though is

  • that we will stagger the take-backs. And in most cases, we will have signed

  • leases before we actually take back the space because our agreements with these

  • retailers give us the optionality of when we can take it back, obviously giving

  • consideration to their peak sales times et cetera. So we will stagger it out to

  • minimize the downtime as much as possible or maximize the cash flow as much as

  • possible. But we're in a good shape from a documents standpoint. So our

  • optionality on these spaces is what's really creating enormous value. So as we

  • announce these deals and as these deals come through, you will actually see deals

  • that are signed, ready to go but we might not have taken back the space yet. And

  • we still have some time before we do that.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Ki Bin Kim from SunTrust.

  • Ki Bin Kim - Analyst

  • Thanks. Just a couple of quick follow-ups. Along that similar lines.

  • If I look at your portfolio there's still maybe 25% of space that's not owned by

  • you. What are your plans on those types of spaces. And does that make sense for

  • you to take some of those back into the owned portfolio.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • The unowned you're looking at is typically where you have a

  • shadow anchor whether it's a Target or a Lowe's or Wal-Mart. And we have looked

  • in certain cases where it makes sense to convert to lease. But that's not

  • typically the preference of those larger retailers.

  • Paul Freddo - SVP of Leasing and Development

  • You think about some of the costly capital standpoint as much as our

  • positioning has dramatically improved and cost of capital has decreased, it's a

  • real struggle to say that are our cost of capital could compete with the Costco

  • or a Wal-Mart who have consistently wanted to own a larger portion of their store

  • base. At least for Wal-Mart's large format stores.

  • Operator

  • Next question is from Michael Mueller with JPMorgan.

  • Michael Mueller - Analyst

  • Hi. I was wondering for the Blackstone JV, did you consider

  • taking, I guess, a higher ownership stake initially or not really because you

  • have access to the top 10 centers that you wanted anyway?

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • I think the importance for us is the risk-adjusted return. And so

  • to be able to get a very low-risk return on a preferred equity piece for a period

  • of time during which we'll be doing the extremely detailed underwriting above and

  • beyond what you do in an acquisition process but what you do when you truly own

  • and manage a center to see what would make sense. Assuming we can figure out

  • another transaction with Blackstone to take several of those assets on a wholly

  • owned basis. I think it speaks to our focus on risk overall. Our focus on

  • portfolio quality overall where we didn't have an interest to take on 100% of

  • these 76 assets. But we think we have a very attractive structure here where we

  • absolutely expect to help our good partners at Blackstone on this transaction and

  • end up at the end of day with something that works extremely well for them and

  • very well for us where we can achieve a good return and a consistent return up

  • front. And potentially, an ownership interest of 100% of the smaller pool of

  • highest quality prime assets that we want longer term. So there's a structure

  • that's worked well. They are a partner that has worked extremely well, and so

  • we're excited to another one with them. And hopefully, we see it progress over

  • the next several years the way that the first one has.

  • Operator

  • Next we have Christopher Lucas with Capital One Securities.

  • Christopher Lucas - Analyst

  • Good morning everyone. Just wanted to follow up on the last

  • question which is, David, maybe you could give us sense as to aspirates between

  • (Inaudible) and the best quality assets (Inaudible) in that ARCP portfolio.

  • David Oakes - President, CFO

  • I think there is a relatively widespread when you simply say there

  • are 76 assets. When you truly look at where the value is focused, I think it's

  • pretty tightly focused on high quality shopping centers in major market. But to

  • answer the most extreme thought of your question, I think there are high quality,

  • major, major market asset that recent transactional activity would tell us our

  • five caps or sub five cap sort of assets in the Los Angeles area. And on the

  • other end, there are some smaller market, single kind of assets with less

  • attractive demographics are underlying tenancy that would probably be in the mid

  • -eights. And so I think you do have a wide range of cap rates by that broadest

  • definition of thinking about each one of the 76 assets. But when you truly look

  • at where the value is, it is highly concentrated in the high quality major market

  • prime, large scale power centers.

  • Operator

  • Next we have Rich Moore with RBC Capital Markets.

  • Rich Moore - Analyst

  • Hi guys. Good morning. I'm curious, now that development seems to be

  • making its way back into the conversation not just with you guys but with others

  • as well, where you are in terms of your development platform, in terms of your

  • staff, your expertise, which of course you've had before. And I'm wondering where

  • that is today post recession from a development standpoint.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • We're in good shape, Rich. And we had the redevelopment platform

  • and we were very careful as we went in to the recession and during the recession.

  • We knew we needed the development folks in the department and we kept a couple of

  • key ones and we've added since. And we continue to look by the way. We're always

  • looking for quality people in that area, construction and development but we've

  • kept enough of a pool of activity, if you will, going with the redevelopment

  • pipeline and the occasional development that we feel good about where we are,

  • continue to look. We certainly don't feel that we're in a position where we're

  • short on quality staff for the extent of the pipeline we have laid out for you.

  • Operator

  • And it looks like we have some follow-up coming through from Ki Bin Kim

  • with SunTrust Robinson.

  • Ki Bin Kim - Analyst

  • Thanks. Just a quick question, a follow up on Rich's. What do you

  • think -- have you guys looked at your total portfolio and just maybe put some

  • parameters around what you think the total redevelopment opportunity is maybe

  • within the next three years or so?

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • Yes, we have. There is quite a bit that's active today. I will

  • tell you that we'll be north for bringing about $100 million plus online in 2014.

  • And that number should be right around $150 million in 2015. That's kind of the

  • run rate we're looking at. It could obviously vary from year to year based upon

  • when projects are brought into service. But we've got several hundred million in

  • progress right now, different stages. That just means we're not just thinking

  • about it. We're actually doing something about it whether it's entitlements or

  • consents or working deals. But a good run rate would be about $150 million to

  • $200 million a year of activity and probably bringing in around $150 million a

  • year for the next few years.

  • Operator

  • And we have no further questions in queue, so I'll pass it back to DDR

  • CEO, Dan Hurwitz, for any final remarks.

  • Daniel Hurwitz - CEO

  • I just want to thank you all once again for joining us for our

  • update on what was a very busy second quarter. And hope that you will be able to

  • join us in Atlanta on November 4th in conjunction with NAREIT. So thanks again.

  • Have a good day.

  • Operator

  • Wonderful. Thank everyone for your time and your participation. And

  • have a great rest of the day.