Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) measure for our insurance operations.

（音訊正在進行）衡量我們的保險業務。

Our 2024 underlying combined ratio, which excludes catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development, was 89.4%, a 90-basis-point improvement from 2023. Standard commercial lines and excess and surplus lines reported to underlying combined ratios in line with 2023, despite actions to increase current year loss cost expectations. The personal lines underlying combined ratio improved 90.6 points in 2024, as we implemented significant price increases, took meaningful underwriting actions to address underperforming business, and continued transitioning to the mass affluent market.

我們 2024 年的基礎綜合比率（不包括巨災損失和前一年的傷亡發展）為 89.4%，比 2023 年提高了 90 個基點。儘管採取了增加當年損失成本預期的措施，但標準商業險種以及超額險種和盈餘險種報告的基礎綜合比率與 2023 年一致。由於我們實施了大幅價格上漲、採取了有意義的承保行動以解決表現不佳的業務並繼續向大眾富裕市場轉型，個人險的基礎綜合成本率在 2024 年改善了 90.6 點。

We remain comfortable with the overall composition and quality of our underwriting portfolio despite the adverse emergence in general liability. While rate increases will continue to be our primary focus for profitability improvement, we also have been making underwriting refinements, including managing limits and coverage grants in challenging jurisdictions; driving improved terms and conditions; and focusing production on better performing classes of business.

儘管一般責任險出現不利表現，我們仍然對承保組合的整體組成和品質感到滿意。雖然費率上調仍將是我們提高盈利能力的主要關注點，但我們也一直在進行承保改進，包括在具有挑戰性的司法管轄區管理限額和承保授予；推動改善條款和條件；並將生產重點放在表現較好的業務類別上。

Consequently, new business growth in commercial lines moderated in the past two quarters. This quarter's commercial lines renewal pure pricing of 8.8%, and retention of 85%, were both in line with last quarter's results. Exposure growth added 3.8 points, contributing to our total renewal premium change of 12.9%. Commercialized pricing, excluding workers' compensation, increased 10.1%. The same as in the third quarter. Renewal pure pricing and commercial property was 11.3%, and commercial auto was 10.7%.

因此，過去兩季商業險新業務成長有所放緩。本季商業險續保純定價為 8.8%，保留率為 85%，均與上一季的業績一致。風險敞口增加了 3.8 個百分點，推動我們的總續保費變化達到 12.9%。不包括工人賠償的商業化價格上漲了 10.1%。與第三季相同。續約純定價及商業房地產為11.3%，商用汽車為10.7%。

General liability renewal, pure pricing was 10.6%, up from 10.2% in the third quarter; 7.6% in the second quarter; and 6.5% in the first quarter. Excess and surplus lines, that will be a strong year with 29% growth, exceeding $500 million of net premiums written for the first time.

一般責任續保，純定價為10.6%，高於第三季的10.2%；第二季成長7.6%；第一季成長6.5%。超額和盈餘線，這將是強勁的一年，成長 29%，淨保費首次超過 5 億美元。

The 2024 combined ratio was 89.7%, including 4 points of prior year reserve strengthening. The underlying combined ratio was 81.1%, in line with last year despite actions to increase current year-loss expectations. We continue to pursue technology and automation investments to increase E&S scalability. While growth has been robust and we continue to see continued market opportunity, we remain mindful of social inflation's broad-based impacts. As a result, we continue to build higher severity increases into our E&S loss picks.

2024 年綜合比率為 89.7%，其中包括上年準備金增加 4 個百分點。儘管採取了增加本年度虧損預期的措施，但基礎綜合成本率為 81.1%，與去年持平。我們將繼續進行技術和自動化投資，以提高 E&S 的可擴展性。儘管成長強勁，我們繼續看到持續的市場機會，但我們仍然警惕社會通膨的廣泛影響。因此，我們繼續在 E&S 損失選擇中增加更高的嚴重程度增幅。

We also achieved strong price changes in recent years. While these higher severity assumptions held up relatively well, $20 million of our prior accident year booking actions were from this segment. Growth in brokerage, our middle market E&S business, along with rate and exposure increases, drove the average E&S account size from 4,600 at the end of 2023 to approximately 5,300 at the end of 2024.

近年來，我們也實現了強勁的價格變動。雖然這些較高嚴重程度的假設相對較好，但我們前幾年事故登記行動中的 2000 萬美元都來自這一部分。經紀業務的成長、我們的中端市場 E&S 業務以及利率和風險敞口的增加，推動平均 E&S 帳戶規模從 2023 年底的 4,600 個增加到 2024 年底的約 5,300 個。

While the average premium size increased, our appetite is generally unchanged and we are comfortable with the pricing, terms and conditions, and mix of business. Our 2025 guidance incorporates strong overall profitability assumptions for the E&S segment. In personal lines, net premiums written increased 4% for the year. However, we saw a 3% decrease in the fourth quarter.

雖然平均保費規模有所增加，但我們的承受能力總體沒有變化，而且我們對定價、條款和條件以及業務組合感到滿意。我們對 2025 年的指引包含了對 E&S 部門強勁的整體獲利能力假設。在個人保險方面，全年淨承保保費增加了 4%。然而，第四季我們看到了3%的下降。

Our strategic repositioning and significant actions to improve personalized profitability contributed to a combined ratio of 91.7% for the quarter, and 109.3% for the year. Both are meaningfully better than the prior year. 2024's underlying combined ratio was 89.3% with the quarter at 86%.

我們的策略重新定位和提高個人化獲利能力的重大舉措使得本季的綜合成本率達到 91.7%，全年的綜合成本率達到 109.3%。兩項數據都比去年有顯著改善。 2024 年的基本綜合比率為 89.3%，本季為 86%。

Renewal pure price increased 27.3% for the quarter, and 20.6% for the year. In states where we have filed and received approval for adequate rates, we are focusing on growth in the mass affluence segment. With the actions we have taken, we expect personal lines will produce an underwriting profit in 2025.

本季續約純價格上漲了 27.3%，全年上漲了 20.6%。在我們已經申請並獲得足夠稅率批准的州，我們專注於大眾富裕階層的成長。透過這些措施，我們預計個人險將在 2025 年產生承保利潤。

In summary, our team responded well to 2024 challenges, improving our position for 2025 in this uncertain environment. We are focused on rate and non-rate actions to drive underwriting profitability, while prudently growing the business.

總而言之，我們的團隊很好地應對了 2024 年的挑戰，提升了我們在這個不確定的環境中為 2025 年奠定的基礎。我們專注於利率和非利率行動來推動承保獲利能力，同時審慎地發展業務。

I'll now turn the call over to Patrick, who just completed his first full quarter at Selective. His significant insurance experience and deep background in corporate finance has added a new perspective to our executive leadership team, significantly enhancing our ability to manage the challenging environment and restore our profile of strong and consistent underwriting results. Patrick?

現在我將電話轉給帕特里克，他剛剛完成了在 Selective 的第一個完整季度。他在保險領域的豐富經驗和深厚的公司財務背景為我們的執行領導團隊增添了新的視角，大大增強了我們應對充滿挑戰的環境以及恢復強勁和穩定的承保業績的能力。派崔克？

Thanks, John, and good morning.

謝謝，約翰，早安。

We reported a $52 of fully diluted EPS in the fourth quarter and a $62 of non-GAAP operating EPS. This produced a return on equity of 12.7% and an operating return on equity of 13.5%. For the full year, fully diluted EPS was $3.23 and non-GAAP operating EPS was $3.27, down 44% from a year ago. Return on equity was 7.0% and operating return on equity was 7.1%. This was disappointing after 10 consecutive years of double-digit operating ROE.

我們報告第四季的完全攤薄每股收益為 52 美元，非 GAAP 營業每股收益為 62 美元。這使得股本回報率達到 12.7%，營運股本回報率達到 13.5%。全年全面攤薄每股收益為 3.23 美元，非公認會計準則營業每股收益為 3.27 美元，較去年同期下降 44%。股本回報率為7.0%，營運股本回報率為7.1%。在連續 10 年實現兩位數的營運 ROE 之後，這一結果令人失望。

However, we think the actions we've taken in 2024 position us to quickly return to meeting or exceeding our ROE target. Our GAAP combined ratio for the quarter was 98.5%, including 8.8 points of prior year reserve strengthening.

然而，我們認為，我們在 2024 年採取的行動使我們能夠迅速恢復或超越我們的 ROE 目標。我們本季的 GAAP 綜合比率為 98.5%，其中包括去年同期準備金增加 8.8 個百分點。

Catastrophe losses reduced the combined ratio by 90 basis points due to very low event frequency and reduced loss estimates for prior period catastrophes. The third quarter, $85 million Helene estimate has held up well. For the full year, our combined ratio was 103%, 7.5 points higher than our original guidance. Catastrophe losses of 6.5 points exceeded our original guidance by 1.5 points. And prior year reserve strengthening added another 7.1 points to the full year combined ratio.

由於事件發生頻率極低以及前期災難的損失估計減少，災難損失使綜合比率降低了 90 個基點。第三季度，Helene 預計 8,500 萬美元的銷售額仍保持良好。全年而言，我們的綜合比率為 103%，比我們最初的預期高出 7.5 個百分點。災難損失為 6.5 個百分點，比我們最初的預期高出 1.5 個百分點。而去年準備金的增加又使全年綜合成本率增加了 7.1 個百分點。

The 2024 underlying combined ratio of 89.4% was 110 basis points better than our original guidance. The expense ratio and non-CAT property losses were favorable by almost 3 points. But the current accident year casualty loss ratio was unfavorable by 1.9 points. Reserving actions accounted for 2.3 points that were partially offset by business mix changes.

2024 年基礎綜合比率為 89.4%，比我們最初的指引高出 110 個基點。費用率和非巨災財產損失均有利近 3 個百分點。但本事故年度的傷亡損失率卻不利了1.9個百分點。儲備行動佔2.3個百分點，部分被業務組合變化抵銷。

The expense ratio for the year was 30.6%. Our 2025 guidance assumes that the expense ratio will increase to approximately 31.5%, partially due to greater profit-based compensation from expected underwriting improvement. We remain focused on expense discipline while investing to support our strategic objectives.

全年費用率為30.6%。我們的 2025 年指引假設費用率將增加至約 31.5%，部分原因是預期承保改善將帶來更多的基於利潤的補償。我們在進行投資以支持我們的策略目標的同時，仍然注重費用紀律。

Turning to reserves, in the quarter, net prior year casualty reserve strengthening was $100 million. At the line level, $25 million of favorable prior year. Workers' compensation development was more than offset by strengthening of $100 million of general liability, $20 million in E&S, and $5 million in personal auto. There was no commercial auto development in the quarter.

談到儲備金，本季度，去年同期的淨傷亡儲備金增加了 1 億美元。在線上水準上，去年的有利條件為 2500 萬美元。工人賠償的成長被 1 億美元的一般責任險、2000 萬美元的 E&S 險以及 500 萬美元的個人汽車險的增加所抵消。本季沒有商用汽車發展。

We booked $47 million of increased current accident year loss cost in the fourth quarter compared to our original guidance. This included $41 million or 14.4% combined ratio points in general liability and $6 million or 4.2% combined ratio points in E&S. The quarter's $47 million increase builds on the third quarter's $21 million increase. The second quarter's $28 million increase in the first quarter's $4 million increase.

與我們最初的預期相比，第四季度我們計入了增加的本事故年度損失成本 4700 萬美元。其中包括一般責任險 4,100 萬美元或 14.4% 的綜合比率點，以及 E&S 險 600 萬美元或 4.2% 的綜合比率點。本季的 4,700 萬美元增幅是在第三季 2,100 萬美元增幅的基礎上實現的。第二季增加了2800萬美元，而第一季增加了400萬美元。

Our 2024 accident year actions are predominantly in general liability and driven by movement in recent prior accident year severity as 2024 frequency emergence has met our expectations. We believe these actions are prudent considering the elevated uncertainty in the external environment and its impact on our reserving diagnostics. We will continue to respond to emerging information, incorporate our view of risk factors, and book our best estimate.

我們在 2024 年事故年度的行動主要集中在一般責任方面，並受到最近事故年度嚴重程度變動的推動，因為 2024 年的頻率出現符合我們的預期。考慮到外部環境的不確定性增加及其對我們的儲備診斷的影響，我們認為這些行動是謹慎的。我們將繼續回應新出現的訊息，結合我們對風險因素的看法，並做出最佳估計。

The favorable prior year workers' compensation development was primarily driven by results of our annual tail development study, which showed better than expected severity in older accident years. These relatively small factor changes are applied to all accident years, run rate profitability in this line for us. And the industry continue to be impacted by significant negative bureau-filed rate changes even as favorable prior year development benefits results.

去年工人賠償金的良好發展主要得益於我們年度尾部發展研究的結果，該研究顯示，過去幾年的事故嚴重程度比預期好。這些相對較小的因素變化適用於所有事故年份，對我們來說，這方面的運行率獲利能力。儘管前幾年的發展效益不錯，但該行業仍受到備案稅率大幅負面變動的影響。

After tax net investment income for the fourth quarter was $97 million, up 24% from a year ago. For the year, after tax net investment income was $363 million, slightly above our 2024 guidance of $360 million, and up 17% from 2023. We invested $683 million of new money during the quarter at an average pre-tax yield of 6.1%. As a result, the average pre-tax book yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.9% at year end. We expect this embedded book yield will provide durable elevated investment income.

第四季稅後淨投資收益為 9,700 萬美元，年增 24%。全年稅後淨投資收入為 3.63 億美元，略高於我們預期的 2024 年 3.6 億美元，比 2023 年成長 17%。我們在本季投資了 6.83 億美元新資金，平均稅前收益率為 6.1%。因此，年末平均稅前帳面收益率上升了 3 個基點，達到 4.9%。我們預期該內含帳面收益率將帶來持久的高投資收益。

In 2024, investments generated 12.8 points of return on equity, up 40 basis points from 12.4% in 2023. The portfolio remains conservatively positioned. Total fixed income and short-term investments represented 92% of the portfolio at year end, with an average credit quality of A-plus and a duration of 4.0 years.

2024 年，投資產生了 12.8 個基點的股本回報率，比 2023 年的 12.4% 上升了 40 個基點。投資組合仍維持保守立場。截至年底，固定收益和短期投資總額佔投資組合的 92%，平均信用品質為 A+，期限為 4.0 年。

Alternative investments, which report on a one-quarter lag, generated $8.4 million of after tax income in the quarter, and $29.3 million for the year, up 38% from full year 2023. We successfully renewed our property catastrophe reinsurance program effective January 1, maintaining our $100 million retention while increasing our coverage exhaustion point to $1.4 billion from $1.2 billion.

另類投資報告落後一個季度，本季創造了 840 萬美元的稅後收入，全年創造了 2,930 萬美元，較 2023 年全年增長 38%。我們成功續簽了我們的財產巨災再保險計劃，該計劃於 1 月 1 日生效，維持了 1 億美元的自留額，同時將承保耗盡點從 12 億美元提高到 14 億美元。

The increased limit reflects the growth in our books' total insured value. The top layer of our program is 75% collateralized and provides $600 million of coverage in excess of an $800 million retention. With attractive market conditions, we completed the renewal with risk adjusted price decreases and improved terms and conditions.

限額的增加反映了我們書籍的總保險價值的成長。我們計劃的最頂層有 75% 的抵押，並在 8 億美元的留存額之外提供 6 億美元的保額。在極具吸引力的市場條件下，我們透過降低風險調整後的價格以及改善條款和條件完成了續約。

We also supplemented our main tower with a new personal line-only buy down layer. This coverage attaches at a slightly lower return period than our broader catastrophe program, providing additional protection as we transition to the mass affluent market. Our peak peril US hurricane is well within our risk tolerance at 4% of GAAP equity for a one-in-250-year-net probable maximum loss.

我們還在主塔上增設了一條新的個人線路專用買斷層。與我們更廣泛的災難計劃相比，此保險的回報期略短，可在我們向大眾富裕市場過渡時提供額外的保障。對於風險最高的美國颶風，其造成的 250 年一遇的淨可能最大損失為 GAAP 權益的 4%，完全在我們的風險承受能力範圍內。

Our reinsurance program includes casualty access and property per risk treaties that renew on July 1. The treaty retentions are currently at $2 million per occurrence for casualty, and $5 million per risk for property.

我們的再保險計劃包括 7 月 1 日續約的意外險和財產險條約。目前，意外事故的條約留存額為每起事故 200 萬美元，財產事故的條約留存額為每次風險 500 萬美元。

Turning to capital, our capital remains strong with $3.1 billion of GAAP equity and $2.9 billion of statutory surplus at year end. Book value per share decreased 2% in the fourth quarter, with increased after-tax unrealized losses for fixed income securities, offsetting profitable results. For the year, book value per share increased 6% and adjusted book value per share was up 4%.

談到資本，我們的資本依然強勁，年底的 GAAP 股本為 31 億美元，法定盈餘為 29 億美元。第四季每股帳面價值下降 2%，固定收益證券的稅後未實現損失增加，抵銷了獲利結果。全年每股帳面價值成長 6%，調整後每股帳面價值成長 4%。

Our debt-to-capital ratio of 14% and strong operating cash flow provide ample financial flexibility to support organic growth plans and execute our strategic initiatives. We did not repurchase any shares during the quarter, so our authorization had $75.5 million in remaining capacity at year end. We currently view our organic growth within our insurance operations as the most attractive opportunity to deploy capital.

我們的債務資本比率為 14%，並且強勁的營運現金流提供了充足的財務靈活性，以支持有機成長計劃並執行我們的策略計劃。我們在本季沒有回購任何股票，因此截至年底，我們的授權剩餘容量為 7,550 萬美元。我們目前將保險業務的有機成長視為部署資本最具吸引力的機會。

Turning to 2025 guidance, we expect our GAAP-combined ratio to be 96% to 97%, including 6 points of catastrophe losses with no personal lines or standard commercial exposure. In California, we expect the devastating Los Angeles and Southern California wildfires will not significantly impact our first quarter results. As always, we assume no prior accident year reserve development.

展望 2025 年的指引，我們預期我們的 GAAP 綜合比率為 96% 至 97%，其中包括 6 個點的災難損失，沒有個人風險或標準商業風險。在加州，我們預計洛杉磯和南加州毀滅性的山火不會對我們的第一季業績產生重大影響。像往常一樣，我們假設事故發生年份之前沒有儲備金開發。

After tax net investment income is expected to be $405 million. This is a 12% increase over 2024, reflecting growth in our invested asset base and slightly higher book yields as we prudently manage the portfolio. Our guidance includes an overall effective tax rate of approximately 21%. Weighted average shares are estimated to be $61.5 million on a fully diluted basis without any share repurchase assumptions under our existing authorization.

稅後淨投資收益預計為4.05億美元。這比 2024 年增長了 12%，反映了我們投資資產基礎的成長和由於我們審慎管理投資組合而略高的帳面收益率。我們的指導包括約 21% 的總體有效稅率。根據我們現有的授權，在沒有任何股票回購假設的情況下，完全稀釋後的加權平均股份估計為 6,150 萬美元。

Now, I'll turn the call back to John.

現在，我將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Patrick. We entered 2024 with an expected loss trend of 7%, including 4% for property and 8% for casualty. Our renewal pure price last year, excluding exposure change, was 9.5%. Nonetheless, we increased our loss picks because of the unfavorable emergence in recent accident years. These actions reflected further elevated severities, primarily attributable to general liability and excess and surplus lines.

謝謝，派崔克。進入 2024 年，預計損失趨勢為 7%，其中財產險為 4%，意外險為 8%。我們去年的續約純價格（不包括風險敞口變動）為 9.5%。儘管如此，由於最近幾年事故發生率較低，我們還是增加了損失選擇。這些行動反映了進一步加劇的嚴重性，主要歸因於一般責任以及超額和剩餘線。

Our 2025 guidance implies an underlying combined ratio in the 90% to 91% range, up from the 89.4% we reported in 2024. We expect our expense ratio to increase about 1 point to approximately 31.5%. The guidance reflects elevated uncertainty in the external environment and embeds an overall expected loss trend of approximately 7% in line with last year. It assumes an expected loss trend of approximately 3.5% for property and 8.5% for casualty.

我們的 2025 年指引意味著基礎綜合比率將在 90% 至 91% 範圍內，高於我們在 2024 年報告的 89.4%。我們預計費用率將增加約 1 個百分點至 31.5% 左右。該指引反映出外部環境的不確定性增加，預計整體損失趨勢將與去年持平，約 7%。預計財產險損失趨勢約 3.5%，意外險損失趨勢約 8.5%。

Our reserving actions, pricing response, and progress on our strategic priorities in 2024 have us well-positioned to quickly return to delivering operating ROEs at or better than our 12% target. Our 2025 guidance implies an operating ROE of approximately 15%.

我們的儲備行動、定價反應以及 2024 年策略重點的進展使我們有能力迅速恢復到實現 12% 或更好的經營 ROE 的目標。我們的 2025 年指引意味著營業 ROE 約為 15%。

I'll now ask the operator to begin our question-and-answer session.

我現在請接線生開始我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer & Co.

（操作員指示）邁克爾·菲利普斯（Michael Phillips），奧本海默公司（Oppenheimer & Co.）

Hey. Good morning. Thanks.

嘿。早安.謝謝。

John, first question is a basic one on reserving methods. It's been a couple of decades since I sat in the seat of a reserve and x-ray row, but I think the mechanics haven't changed that much. Look at a bunch of reserving methods, get a range, do some weighted averages, come up with the best estimate or a point estimate, and then book something.

約翰，第一個問題是關於保留方法的基本問題。距離我上次坐在後備座位和 X 光排已經有幾十年了，但我認為機制並沒有太大的變化。查看一堆預留方法，獲得一個範圍，進行一些加權平均值，得出最佳估計或點估計，然後預訂一些東西。

I guess, sometimes when we hear a company take a fairly significant reserve charge, we sometimes hear comments about how the book amount is different than what that embedded point estimate is, and, therefore, some margin may be built in. Let me -- can you speak to that? And on your GL book, for the current calendar year, you have $300 million-plus. What embedded extra margin might there be in that relative to either your own best estimate or maybe the external afterwards if that's happened already?

我想，有時當我們聽到一家公司收取相當大的準備金費用時，我們有時會聽到這樣的評論：帳面金額與嵌入點估計值有何不同，因此，可能會內建一些保證金。讓我——你能談談這個嗎？在您的總帳簿上，當前日曆年，您的餘額有 3 億多美元。與您自己的最佳估計或之後的外部估計（如果已經發生）相比，其中可能存在哪些額外的利潤？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Mike.

是的。謝謝，麥克。

So just a comment relative to the reserving process. And while the fundamentals haven't changed, I think the level of detail and insight and the expansion of methods has continued to evolve and be refined. So yeah, the underlying approach is very similar, but I think the depth of analysis and the insights we have are much better than they were a couple of decades ago. So that's the -- just with regard to your first question.

所以這只是與預訂過程相關的評論。雖然基本原理沒有改變，但我認為細節和洞察力的水平以及方法的擴展不斷發展和改進。是的，底層方法非常相似，但我認為分析的深度和洞察力比幾十年前要好得多。這就是—僅關於您的第一個問題。

On the second point, we have consistently had a process whereby we carry a position or a risk margin above the actuarial best estimate. And that position and the magnitude of that position is always determined by our view of the risk factors that we observe. And what I can tell you is that risk margin has been very consistent over time and would be consistent with what we've seen in more recent years, if you were to look at the position at year end 2024.

關於第二點，我們始終有一個流程，即將部位或風險裕度保持在精算最佳估計之上。而該位置以及該位置的大小始終由我們對所觀察到的風險因素的看法決定。我可以告訴你的是，風險保證金在一段時間內一直非常穩定，如果你看看 2024 年底的情況，它會與我們近年來看到的情況一致。

Okay, John. Thank you. Second question, if I heard you right, on -- right at the end of your comments about the casualty loss ratio that went into your guidance for 2025, I think you said 8.5%. I feel like that's a little bit lower than what you said last quarter, 9%. I want to make sure that's right and what's behind that.

好的，約翰。謝謝。第二個問題，如果我沒聽錯的話，在您對 2025 年指引中的傷亡損失率的評論結束時，我認為您說的是 8.5%。我覺得比你上個季度說的 9% 低一點。我想確保這是正確的，並且了解背後的原因。

Yes. So the 9% we've been talking about is for GL and that continues to be where we have GL on a forward trend basis. We've given you a casualty trend number, which is all including workers' comp and commercial auto. But yeah, the GL trend that we were citing more specifically at around 9%, actually a little bit north of 9% from a severity perspective, is what we continue to embed in our '25 expected loss ratios.

是的。因此，我們一直在談論的 9% 是針對 GL 的，而這仍然是我們未來趨勢基礎上的 GL。我們為您提供了傷亡趨勢數字，其中包括工傷補償和商業汽車。但是的，我們更具體地提到的 GL 趨勢在 9% 左右，實際上從嚴重程度的角度來看略高於 9%，這是我們繼續嵌入 25 年預期損失率中的。

Okay. Perfect. And then last one, a numbers question. Your primary casualty versus your excess and commercial umbrella, I think that's about a two-thirds and third split on a premium basis. Can you say how much of your GL calendar 2024 charge? What -- how much of that was primary versus excess and umbrella on commercial lines?

好的。完美的。最後一個問題，是數字問題。您的主要傷亡與您的超額和商業保護，我認為這是在保費基礎上的三分之二和三分之一的分割。可以說一下你的 GL 日曆 2024 收費多少嗎？其中，有多少是商業線路的主要部分，有多少是超額部分和保護部分？

Yeah, it was predominantly GL. There was some umbrella movement, but it was predominantly GL in the --predominantly in the '22 and '23 accident years. And remember, I think it's important, the difference with us, not for -- against all competitors but against many, is our umbrella book is entirely written on a supported basis. So that gives us an earlier indication of frequency because we have the underlying auto and/or GL that's triggering those umbrella losses.

是的，主要是 GL。有一些保護傘運動，但主要是在 '22 和 '23 年事故多發年份，主要是 GL。請記住，我認為重要的是，我們的不同之處（不是與所有競爭對手相比，而是與許多競爭對手相比）在於，我們的總括書完全是在支援的基礎上編寫的。因此，這為我們提供了頻率的早期指示，因為我們有觸發這些總體損失的底層汽車和/或 GL。

Okay. So again, to confirm your GL -- your excess commercial didn't see much reserve charge. It was more the primary, yes?

好的。因此，再次確認您的 GL — — 您的超額商業沒有看到太多的儲備費用。這更像是初級階段，對嗎？

We did see some, but it was predominantly GL.

我們確實看到了一些，但主要是 GL。

Okay. Cool. Thanks, John. Appreciate it.

好的。涼爽的。謝謝，約翰。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John (sic - Paul) Newsome, Piper Sandler.

約翰（原文如此 - 保羅）紐瑟姆，派珀桑德勒。

Good morning. It's Paul. That's my actual first name.

早安.是保羅。這是我的真實名字。

I wanted to see if you could give us just a few more comments to make us comfortable about the potential for just higher accent year loss ratio picks as we go forward. Remarkably, in general, the underlying combined ratio was pretty good, very good.

我想看看您是否可以給我們更多評論，以便讓我們對未來可能出現的更高重音年份損失率選擇感到放心。值得注意的是，整體而言，基礎綜合比率相當好，非常好。

But with all of these casualty charges and workers' comp are turning a little bit things of that nature. You would think you have pretty substantial higher aspects? I realize there's some conservativeness in your guidance, but if you could just give us a little bit more as to why those lost picks in your view are the right lost picks as you report in the next year.

但隨著所有這些傷亡費用和工人補償的增加，事情也逐漸變得類似。您是否認為您具有相當高階的層面？我知道您的指導有些保守，但如果您能告訴我們更多，為什麼您認為這些失敗的選擇在明年的報告中是正確的。

Yeah, Paul. Thank you for the question.

是的，保羅。感謝您的提問。

So I guess the most important piece is to unpack this between property and casualty. And the current year movements in 2024 impacted the total combined ratio that the '24 -- underlying by a total of 2.3 points and 2.6 points in commercial lines. So that increases the starting point. And as you look forward to 2025, on an overall basis, you have casualty expected loss ratios moving a little bit higher despite strong rate but we have that higher trend assumption.

因此，我認為最重要的部分是解開財產險和意外險之間的謎團。2024 年的年度變動對 24 年的總綜合比率產生了影響，其中商業險的綜合比率共下降 2.3 個百分點，為 2.6 個百分點。這樣就提高了起點。展望 2025 年，總體而言，儘管損失率很高，但預期損失率將會略有上升，但我們有更高的趨勢假設。

And you've got property continuing to improve because, as we've cited, the property trend has been running in the 3% to 4% range, whereas rate on the property lines have been running in the 10% to 12% range. So that's giving some positive influence on a go-forward basis.

而且房地產市場持續向好，因為正如我們所提到的，房地產趨勢一直徘徊在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內，而房地產利率一直徘徊在 10% 到 12% 的範圍內。因此，這將對未來產生一些正面的影響。

But from a casualty perspective, year over year, we have been increasing our severity trend assumption and that is all baked into the 2025 guidance of a 90% to 91% underlying. And then you also had the expense ratio change year over year, which also needs to be incorporated in there.

但從傷亡角度來看，我們每年都在增加嚴重程度趨勢假設，而這一切都已納入 2025 年 90% 至 91% 的潛在損失預測中。然後你的費用率也會逐年變化，這也需要納入其中。

But we -- I guess the key point from my perspective to highlight is we've reacted quickly to an increase in severity trends in relatively immature accident years. And our '25 casualty loss ratios assume that severity increase continues at a similar pace in 2025. And you could describe that however you'd like. You could call it conservative. I will call it prudent.

但是我們—我想從我的角度來看要強調的關鍵點是我們對事故發生相對不成熟的年份中嚴重程度上升的趨勢做出了快速反應。我們的 25 年傷亡損失率假設嚴重程度在 2025 年將繼續以類似的速度成長。你可以用任何你喜歡的方式來描述它。你可以稱之為保守的。我稱之為謹慎。

But I think that's an important fact that underlies our guidance. And I hope would give most of you comfort that we have an appropriate level of severity increase baked into our 2025 expected loss ratios for the casualty lines of business and GL in particular.

但我認為這是我們指導的一個重要事實。我希望能讓大多數人感到安心，因為我們對 2025 年意外險業務和 GL 的預期損失率已經考慮了適當的嚴重程度成長。

That makes a lot of sense. Just a little bit more to beat the dead horse. Sequentially, we've seen additions to reserves. And I guess the -- just to make sure I get this correct, essentially, are we seeing sequentially elevated levels of casualty exposure or losses coming through each quarter and that's triggering it?

這很有道理。再多打一下死馬就好了。隨後，我們看到儲備量增加。我想——只是為了確保我理解正確，本質上，我們是否看到每個季度的傷亡風險或損失水平連續上升，而這是否引發了這種情況？

Because, I think, you are selected is a little bit different than others and that there's no year-end true up thing. It's a full, if I recall, a full analysis of the quarter. So what we saw in the quarter would potentially be just a reaction to -- what we saw from a casual reserve charge would be just a reaction to what you saw in the quarter, if I got that right.

因為，我認為，你被選中與其他人有點不同，而且沒有年終結算的事情。如果我沒記錯的話，這是對本季的全面分析。因此，如果我沒記錯的話，我們在本季度看到的情況可能只是對您在本季度看到的情況的反應——我們從臨時儲備費用中看到的只是對您在本季度看到的情況的反應。

So you are right. We do a full reserve review for each major line of business each quarter. There's no big year end process that differs from what we see in the quarters for GL. Patrick mentioned the workers' comp tail study. That is one of the areas we do an annual review on.

所以你是對的。我們每季都會對每條主要業務線進行全面的儲備審查。與我們在 GL 各季度看到的相比，年終流程沒有什麼重大不同。帕特里克提到了工人補償尾部研究。這是我們進行年度審查的領域之一。

But there's no question, we're reacting to the data that comes through the reserve analysis in the quarter. But we're also using that data to project ultimate loss ratios for those lines of business and we're reacting to what we're seeing. So you've got case and incurred activity that happens over the course of the quarter. And then, obviously, on immature accident years, you're projecting those changes that happened in the quarter to [all of it].

但毫無疑問，我們正在對本季儲備分析得出的數據做出反應。但我們也在使用這些數據來預測這些業務線的最終損失率，並對看到的情況做出反應。因此，您得到了本季發生的案例和發生的活動。然後，顯然，在事故發生年尚未成熟時，你預測的是該季度發生的變化[全部]。

And we think it's appropriate to be reacting more quickly based on what we've seen historically. And if you look, and I know there's been a lot of focus on the 2016 to 2019 accident years for the industry. Most of that emergence, that was social inflation and severity driven by all accounts. Wasn't recognized until 2022 and 2023.

我們認為，根據歷史經驗，採取更快的反應是適當的。如果你看一下，我知道大家非常關注 2016 年至 2019 年的產業事故年。出現這種情況的大部分原因是，社會通貨膨脹和嚴重性由各種因素推動。直到 2022 年和 2023 年才被認可。

And we're sitting here now saying, based on the elevated trends we're seeing early, we're reacting very quickly to the '22 and '23 accident years. And more importantly, despite frequencies behaving well in 2024, we thought it was proven to boost the '24 year with very little reported claim activity, which then incorporates into our 2025 expected loss ratios.

我們現在坐在這裡說，基於我們早期看到的上升趨勢，我們對 22 年和 23 年的事故年做出了非常迅速的反應。更重要的是，儘管 2024 年的頻率表現良好，但我們認為這已被證明可以推動 24 年的索賠活動很少，然後將其納入我們 2025 年的預期損失率。

Got it. Thank. Thank you. As always much appreciate the help.

知道了。感謝。謝謝。一如既往，非常感謝您的幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jing Li, KBW.

李靜，KBW。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to go back to the GL commercial reserve charge. I'm just wondering, can you add more colors on what you see behind the data that comes in? Because some of the peers are saying that some state that used to be more co-friendly have changed. Are you seeing the same trend or anything you can add to the drivers behind the data that you saw this quarter that made you decide to be more prudent? Thank you.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想回到 GL 商業儲備費用。我只是想知道，您能否在所看到的輸入資料背後添加更多顏色？因為一些同行說，一些過去更友善的州已經發生了變化。您是否看到了相同的趨勢，或者您可以添加任何內容來解釋本季數據背後的驅動因素，讓您決定採取更謹慎的態度？謝謝。

Sure. So just a couple of comments. Number one is I think our commentary on this question in the past is consistent to how I view the question currently, which is social inflation is broad-based in nature. It impacts all jurisdictions. And from a -- where on the GL front, it impacts more significantly is with regard to bodily injury, accidents, not property damage liability. So that's the first thing, but we do view this and see this as broad-based.

當然。僅提出幾點評論。第一，我認為我們過去對這個問題的評論與我現在對這個問題的看法是一致的，即社會通膨本質上是廣泛的。它影響所有司法管轄區。從 GL 方面來看，它對人身傷害、事故的影響更為顯著，而不是財產損失責任。這是第一件事，但我們確實認為這是廣泛的。

Now that said, and I pointed this out a few quarters back, there are certain jurisdictions that either, because of statute or because of case law, see a higher, a more exacerbated impact of social inflation. And I cited some of those states and some of them are in our footprint. A state like Georgia is a state that we have taken significant action to curtail growth because there's been some recent challenging case law and some challenging statutes there that exacerbate the impact of social inflation.

話雖如此，我在幾個季度前就指出了這一點，某些司法管轄區由於法規或判例法，社會通膨的影響更為嚴重。我列舉了其中一些州，其中一些州已經在我們的足跡之內。我們已經在喬治亞州等州採取了重大行動來抑制經濟成長，因為那裡最近出現的一些具有挑戰性的判例法和法規加劇了社會通膨的影響。

But those are widespread and I did see one of my peers who, I think, is very accurate in his commentary, point to other states like Texas that have been less of a hotspot that have more recently become a hotspot. Now, a state like Texas and Texas, and Florida, California, Louisiana are the states that are driving more than nuclear verdicts. Those states are not in our commercial and commercialized footprint.

但這些情況很普遍，我確實看到我的一位同事的評論非常準確，他指出其他州，例如德克薩斯州，以前熱點較少，但最近卻成為了熱點。現在，德克薩斯州、德克薩斯州、佛羅裡達州、加利福尼亞州、路易斯安那州等州正在推動不僅僅是核裁決。這些州不在我們的商業和商業化足跡之內。

So yes, it's widespread. Yes, it is exacerbated based on individual state statute and/or case law. But it -- those states that are hotspots are fairly widespread. Some are in our footprint; some are not in our footprint.

是的，它很普遍。是的，根據各州的法規和/或判例法，情況會變得更加嚴重。但這些熱點州分佈相當廣泛。有些就在我們的足跡之內；有些不在我們的足跡之內。

Got it. Makes sense. I also have a follow up on the category reserve charge of $20 million. It seems to indicate some emerging large trend. Are you addressing the writing appetite and pricing in this segment going forward?

知道了。有道理。我還對 2000 萬美元的類別儲備費用進行了跟進。這似乎預示著某種正在出現的大趨勢。您今後會解決這領域的寫作需求和定價問題嗎？

Yeah, thank you. A couple of additional comments on E&S because we've made these points in the past and I think they continue to hold. First of all, what we've said to this point on E&S is the same social inflationary trends have been evident in E&S casualty like they've been in standard insurance ops or admitted casualty.

是的，謝謝。關於 E&S 我還有一些補充評論，因為我們過去曾提出過這些觀點，而且我認為它們仍然成立。首先，到目前為止，我們就 E&S 所說的情況是，在 E&S 傷亡事故中也出現了與在標準保險業務或承認的傷亡事故中相同的社會通膨趨勢。

The difference has been on a couple of fronts. Number one for us, in our book, there's been a much more pronounced decline in frequency over the last several years, in part, because of underwriting mix changes that we have proactively implemented to improve profitability.

差異體現在幾個方面。首先，在我們的記錄中，過去幾年中頻率出現了更加明顯的下降，部分原因是我們為提高盈利能力而主動實施的承保組合變化。

Second thing is we've been embedding much higher assumed severities in our expected loss ratios for E&S for the more recent accident years. And then the third piece would be, the pricing has been a lot stronger in E&S casualty than it's been in admitted casualty for us in the market broadly. And I would say our updated view of that year end would be the frequency trends continue to remain favorable. The casualty pricing environment continues to remain favorable.

第二件事是，對於最近幾年的事故，我們在 E&S 的預期損失率中嵌入了更高的假設嚴重程度。第三點是，對於我們整個市場而言，E&S 意外險的定價比已承認的意外險的定價高得多。我想說，我們對那年底的最新看法是頻率趨勢繼續保持有利。傷亡保險定價環境持續保持有利。

But we thought it made sense for us to top up some of our severity assumptions across a number of more recent accident years. And the impact in any given accident year is not all that significant. And let's also remember that we're talking about a segment that's generating a slightly under 90% all-in combined ratio.

但我們認為，根據最近幾年發生的事故情況，補充一些嚴重程度假設是有意義的。而且任何一個事故年份的影響都不是那麼重大。我們還要記住，我們討論的是一個綜合成本率略低於 90% 的細分市場。

So we're reacting quickly. It's not a substantial move, but we think it's an appropriate one, based on what we've been seeing in other segments of our business.

因此我們迅速做出反應。這不是一個實質的舉措，但根據我們在其他業務領域看到的情況，我們認為這是一個適當的舉措。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Zaremski, BMO.

（操作員指示）Michael Zaremski，BMO。

Good morning. Thanks. This is Dan on for Mike. I guess, just first on your reserve review process. Would you say there's something structural in the way you're reviewing your reserves every quarter that would lead it to where these small bites of the apple occur versus maybe just like a one-time ground up? We're just looking at the cadence of editions where last quarter took a pause relative to what we thought, maybe, would have been closer to a kitchen sink-type charge in two Q. Thanks.

早安.謝謝。這是丹代替麥克。我想，首先要討論的是你的儲備審查流程。您是否認為，您在每個季度審查儲備的方式中存在某種結構性因素，從而導致這些小規模的儲備發生，而不是像一次性的儲備那樣？我們只是在關注版本的節奏，上個季度相對於我們認為的可能更接近兩個季度的廚房水槽式收費暫停了。謝謝。

Yeah. So again, I think there's always recency bias and obviously, in 2024 we've acted in a way that we think is timely and prudent. But I think it's important to look back over time, especially to more mature accident years to see how our reserving process and, equally important, our planning process has held up over time.

是的。所以，我認為總是存在近期偏差，顯然，在 2024 年，我們採取了我們認為及時和謹慎的行動。但我認為回顧過去很重要，特別是回顧事故較為成熟的年份，看看我們的儲備流程，以及同樣重要的規劃流程是如何隨著時間的推移而保持下去的。

And I know many of you subscribe to the Dowling publications. I think there's a really interesting analysis by Dowling that's been published that shows the 2016 to 2019 accident years by major writer of general liability and for the overall industry.

我知道你們當中有很多人訂閱了道林的出版品。我認為 Dowling 發表了一篇非常有趣的分析文章，該分析顯示了 2016 年至 2019 年主要責任險作家和整個行業的事故情況。

And it shows for that group of challenged accident years, 2016 to 2019, when we first started to see social inflation spike. And then you look at the initial loss ratios to where they are currently viewed. And again, I'll say these are largely mature accident years at this point. Our average increase in loss ratio from initial to current over those four years is 2.5 points, up 2.5 points. That same four-year period across the entire industry, those accident years are up on average about 8 points.

從 2016 年至 2019 年這幾年的事故多發年份來看，我們首次看到社會通膨飆升。然後，您查看目前的初始損失率。我再說一遍，現在正是事故多發的成熟期。這四年來，我們的損失率從最初到現在的平均成長率為2.5個百分點，上升了2.5個百分點。同一四年期間，整個產業的事故發生率平均上升了約 8 個百分點。

And if you look at a number of individual peers, you'll see very similar movements. And I point to those because they're more mature accident years. And I think they speak to that how well our process, in terms of both setting expected loss ratios and our reserve review process to update those views of expected loss ratios, has held up well against the test of time.

如果你觀察一些同齡人，你會看到非常相似的動向。我之所以指出這些，是因為這些都是事故發生較成熟的年份。我認為他們說了我們的流程，包括設定預期損失率和儲備審查流程以更新預期損失率的觀點，經受住了時間的考驗。

And I think it's a relevant period to compare to because it's the same driver. It's social inflation that started to manifest itself in those accident years that we think we're still reacting to. Now, we think our process of reviewing reserves from a ground up basis on a quarterly basis is appropriate, and it's prudent.

我認為這是一個值得比較的相關時期，因為驅動因素是相同的。我們認為，我們仍在對此作出反應，這是在那些事故多發的年份開始顯現的社會通貨膨脹。現在，我們認為按季度從頭開始審查儲備的流程是恰當的，也是審慎的。

You could do a more high-level review and just look at actual versus expected claim emergence. I think the concern that you would have by just reacting to actual versus expected claim emergence is you ultimately need to project that activity to what you think it does to your ultimate loss ratios. And we think doing that on a quarterly basis gives us more insight and allows us to more quickly respond with regard to pricing and underwriting actions when we see something change in the underlying data.

您可以進行更高層次的審查，只查看實際索賠與預期索賠的出現。我認為，您所擔心的只是對實際索賠與預期索賠做出反應，您最終需要將該活動預測到您認為對您的最終損失率的影響。我們認為，按季度進行此操作可以讓我們獲得更多洞察力，並且當我們看到基礎數據發生變化時，我們可以更快地對定價和承保行動做出反應。

Great. Thank you for that. And then maybe just switching gears to auto a little bit, maybe, for Patrick. Given you've been in the seat for three months now, you're coming from a major commercial auto writer. What are your view of the commercial auto reserves today? And just given it's the epicenter of social inflation. And what gives you confidence that the issues in GL necessarily don't bleed into the commercial auto reserves?

偉大的。謝謝你。然後也許只是將檔位稍微切換到自動，也許，對於帕特里克來說。鑑於您已經擔任這個職位三個月了，您是一位主要的商業汽車作家。您對今天的商用汽車儲備有何看法？鑑於它是社會通膨的中心。那麼，您如何確信 GL 的問題一定不會影響商用汽車儲備呢？

Yeah, I'll hit on a few things there. Thanks for the question.

是的，我會談一些事情。謝謝你的提問。

In terms of confidence in that the -- we may not have this bleed over into commercial auto. I think we've said in previous conference calls that we think commercial auto was actually the first shoe to drop as it relates to commercial, to social inflation. And what gives me confidence is, what John just outlined, is our process. We have a very strong reserving process.

就信心而言－我們可能不會將這種影響蔓延到商用汽車領域。我想我們在之前的電話會議中已經說過，我們認為商用汽車實際上是與商業和社會通膨相關的第一個受到影響的鞋子。讓我有信心的是約翰剛才概述的我們的流程。我們擁有非常強大的預訂流程。

I had the opportunity to see it on my very first day on October 1. I was right in the middle of it just to see what that looked like and how that operated. And then, obviously more recently, being in it with a lot more context and background. So I have a lot of confidence in our process and our ability to react to new information as we get it and incorporate that into how we view our underlying profitability and our go-forward pricing and actions that we need to take.

10 月 1 日第一天我就有機會看到它。我當時就在其中，只是想看看它是什麼樣子的，以及它是如何運作的。然後，顯然最近我們對其有了更多的背景和脈絡。因此，我對我們的流程和對新資訊做出反應的能力非常有信心，並將其融入我們如何看待我們的潛在盈利能力以及我們的未來定價和我們需要採取的行動中。

In terms of coming from progressive and then being a big commercial auto writer, they absolutely are. They're the number one in the industry. I just want to help people understand, contextually, that the type of business that we write here is not -- at least similar to the type of business in the P&L that I ran when I was a product manager there.

從他們來自進步派，然後成為大型商業汽車作家的角度來看，他們絕對是。他們是這個行業的佼佼者。我只是想幫助人們從上下文上理解，我們在這裡寫的業務類型並不至少與我在那裡擔任產品經理時經營的損益表中的業務類型相似。

We were just about every policy that we write here has an additional line of coverage attached to it. And as you know, progressive has historically been much more focused on monoline business. And so, that factors into how we price the business and how we operate with agents and other third parties.

我們在這裡制定的幾乎每項政策都附帶額外的保障。如您所知，進步集團歷來更注重單一險種業務。所以，這影響了我們如何為業務定價以及如何與代理商和其他第三方合作。

So I think, contextually, I understand the commercial auto business pretty well. From my experience, I feel good about our process and, more specifically, the behaviors we have around seeing new information and reacting to it in a way that we think is prudent and helps us continue to achieve our long-term goals of profitable growth and [mid-teens], excuse me, 12% are we?

所以我認為，從背景來看，我非常了解商用汽車業務。根據我的經驗，我對我們的流程感到滿意，更具體地說，我們在看到新資訊並以我們認為審慎的方式對其做出反應的行為，有助於我們繼續實現我們的長期盈利增長目標和[十幾歲]，對不起，12％是嗎？

And if I can just add a couple of additional points. This is John, and I appreciate Patrick's comments. And I think they're spot on and I -- but I want to come back to the point he started with because I know there's this concern out there that commercial auto is the next shoe to drop. And as Patrick said, we believe it was the first shoe to drop.

我還可以補充幾點。我是約翰，我很感謝派崔克的評論。我認為他們說得對，但我想回到他開始提到的話題，因為我知道大家擔心商用汽車是下一個要面臨的危機。正如派崔克所說，我們相信這是第一隻掉下來的鞋子。

And I think this is an important distinction for everybody to understand. First thing is the commercial auto BI, bodily injury, has a short tail; has a shorter reporting tail than GL and has a shorter disposal tail than GL, which means that the ultimate severities are known sooner than the ultimate severities are known in general liability. So that's point number one.

我認為這是每個人都應該理解的重要區別。首先是商用汽車BI，人身傷害，尾巴很短；具有比 GL 更短的報告尾部和比 GL 更短的處置尾部，這意味著與一般責任相比，最終嚴重性可以更快地為人所知。這是第一點。

As a result of that, if you look back, our reaction was more quick to increase expected loss trends for the commercial auto bodily injury line, dating back to 2021. So if you look at the '21 through '24 accident years, our assumed loss ratio trend across all of those years on average was 8%.

因此，如果回顧一下，我們會發現自 2021 年以來，我們的反應更快，即增加商業汽車人身傷害保險的預期損失趨勢。因此，如果您查看 21 年至 24 年的事故年份，我們假設這些年份的損失率趨勢平均為 8%。

Whereas in general liability, as I mentioned, it takes longer to recognize a change in severity patterns. We and others in the industry that disclose their forward loss trend assumptions, we're sitting on loss trend assumptions in the 5% range. So you've got a big difference in the assumed loss ratio trends in the more recent accident years.

而在一般責任中，正如我所提到的，需要更長的時間才能認識到嚴重程度模式的變化。我們和業內其他揭露遠期損失趨勢假設的機構都基於 5% 左右的損失趨勢假設。因此，在最近幾年的事故中，假設的損失率趨勢存在很大差異。

And then equally important, our average commercial auto BI price over the last four years, '21 through '24, is 10.3%. So you've got earned rate per year of a little over 10% on lost trends that we assume to be around 8% and those have held up. And we've now seen GL historical trends settle into that level. So I think this was recognized more quickly.

同樣重要的是，過去四年（21 年至 24 年）我們商用汽車 BI 的平均價格為 10.3%。因此，您每年獲得的收益率略高於 10%，而虧損趨勢則我們認為約為 8%，並且一直保持下去。現在我們已經看到 GL 歷史趨勢穩定在該水平。所以我認為這很快就被認識到了。

We assume that elevated loss trends and our expected loss ratios more quickly. And our pricing adjusted accordingly and has been running above that historical trend level on a consistent basis. And that, I think, all supports the idea that we view it was the first shoe to drop, not the second shoe to drop.

我們假設損失趨勢和預期損失率會更快上升。我們的定價也進行了相應調整，並持續高於歷史趨勢水準。我認為，所有這些都支持了我們的觀點，即我們認為這是第一隻掉下來的鞋子，而不是第二隻掉下來的鞋子。

Thank you. And I would now like to hand the conference back over to John Marchioni for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想將會議交還給約翰·馬爾基奧尼，請他作結束語。

Well, thank you all for participating. We appreciate your engagement this morning. And as always, please feel free to follow up with Brad with any additional questions. Thank you.

好吧，謝謝大家的參與。我們感謝您今天上午的參與。像往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與布拉德聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。

Portions of this transcript marked (audio in progress) indicate audio problems. The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.

本記錄中標記為（音訊正在進行）的部分錶示音訊有問題。如果有重播的話，將會補充缺少的文字。