Signet Jewelers Ltd (SIG) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營收約 14 億美元,same-store sales(同店銷售)年增 3%,調整後營業利益為 3200 萬美元,調整後 EPS 較去年同期成長超過 2.5 倍
    • 上修全年指引:調升全年同店銷售低標至 -0.2%,維持高標 1.75%;全年調整後營業利益低標上修 2000 萬美元至 4.65 億美元,全年調整後 EPS 區間提升至 8.43-9.59 美元
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調 Q3 業績優於預期,並對假期銷售持審慎樂觀態度
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 三大品牌 Kay、Zales、Jared 同店銷售合計年增 6%,聚焦核心品牌帶動成長
      • 商品組合優化,婚嫁、時尚、手錶三大品類皆有成長,特別是 LGD(實驗室培育鑽石)滲透率提升至時尚品類 15%,約為去年兩倍
      • 高毛利服務業務(如延長服務合約)持續高個位數成長,帶動整體毛利率擴張
      • 現代化行銷策略(數位、社群、品牌大使)提升曝光與流量,Jared 與 De Beers 合作新系列、區塊鏈溯源等創新行銷獲初步成效
    • 風險:
      • 美國消費者信心偏弱,特別是中低收入族群品牌流量受壓,假期消費仍具不確定性
      • 印度關稅與金價上漲持續帶來成本壓力,雖已透過供應鏈調整與商品組合優化部分緩解,但仍需密切關注
      • 小型品牌(如 James Allen、Banter)對整體同店銷售有負面拖累,James Allen Q4 仍預期拖累 120 bps
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 同店銷售(comp sales):年增 3%
    • 三大品牌 Kay、Zales、Jared:同店銷售合計年增 6%
    • 時尚品類 AUR(平均單價):年增 8%,主因 LGD 滲透率提升與金價上漲
    • 婚嫁品類 AUR:年增 6%,LGD 婚戒與周年戒佔比提升
    • 服務業務:高個位數成長,延長服務合約(ESA)線上與門市附加率提升 1.5 個百分點
    • 商品毛利率:年增 80 bps,總體毛利率年增 130 bps
    • 庫存:21 億美元,年減 1%,雖金價與關稅大幅上升
    • 門市翻新:Kay、Jared、Zales 翻新店面帶來中個位數銷售提升,投資回收期約兩年
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收未明確揭露,全年同店銷售指引區間 -0.2% 至 1.75%
    • 全年調整後營業利益指引區間 4.65 億至 5.15 億美元,Q4 指引 2.77 億至 3.27 億美元
    • 全年調整後 EPS 指引 8.43-9.59 美元
    • 全年資本支出(CapEx)預估 1.45-1.6 億美元,包含提前進行的門市翻新
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q4 指引考量了哪些外部干擾?感恩節週末表現如何?
      A: 11 月初流量略有疲軟,特別是中低收入族群品牌,但高收入族群品牌表現穩定。黑五到網一對整季影響有限,12 月最後 10 天才是關鍵,現階段審慎看待 Q4,已做好價值主張與促銷規劃。
    • Q: 印度關稅未降,如何成功上修全年指引?
      A: 透過供應鏈調整(如產地轉移、與供應商合作)、設計優化與部分價格調整,有效緩解關稅與金價壓力,團隊展現高度靈活性,這些槓桿未來也能持續發揮。
    • Q: 今年假期商品組合與去年有何不同?如何避免去年最後 10 天的缺貨問題?
      A: 今年在低價位($500、$1,000 以下)庫存深度大幅提升,LGD 滲透率顯著提高,商品組合更貼近消費者需求,促銷節奏也更精準,已針對假期高峰做好準備。
    • Q: 促銷策略與同業相比如何?假期促銷強度預期?
      A: 今年促銷更聚焦、彈性,商品組合覆蓋多價位帶,能因應不同消費力。與同業相比,價格競爭力佳,會持續監控市場並靈活調整,避免過度促銷損害品牌價值。
    • Q: 印度關稅若未來下調,對公司獲利有何影響?
      A: 雖難量化具體金額,但關稅下調將有助於供應鏈穩定與商品組合靈活度,對未來獲利具正面效益。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Signet Jewelers third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call. Please note, this event is being recorded. Joining us on the call today are Rob Ballew, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Capital Markets; JK Symancyk, Chief Executive Officer; Joan Hilson, Chief Operating and Financial Officer.

    早安,歡迎參加 Signet Jewelers 2026 財年第三季財報電話會議。請注意,本次活動正在錄影。今天參加電話會議的有:投資者關係和資本市場高級副總裁 Rob Ballew;執行長 JK Symancyk;營運長兼財務長 Joan Hilson。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Rob. Please go ahead.

    此時,我想把會議交給羅布。請繼續。

  • Rob Ballew - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

    Rob Ballew - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

  • Good morning. Welcome to Signet Jewelers third-quarter fiscal '26 earnings conference call. During today's discussion, we will make certain forward-looking statements. Any statements that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially.

    早安.歡迎參加 Signet Jewelers 2026 財年第三季財報電話會議。在今天的討論中,我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。任何非歷史事實的陳述都存在許多風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與實際情況有重大差異。

  • We urge you to read the risk factors, cautionary language and other disclosures in the annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly update forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. During the call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For further discussion of the non-GAAP financial measures as well as the reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, investors should review the news release we posted on our website at ir.signetjewelers.com.

    我們敦促您閱讀 10-K 表格年度報告、10-Q 表格季度報告和 8-K 表格當前報告中的風險因素、警示性語言和其他揭露資訊。除法律另有規定外,我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而修訂或公開更新前瞻性聲明的義務。在電話會議中,我們將討論一些非GAAP財務指標。有關非GAAP財務指標的進一步討論以及非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP指標的調節,投資者應查看我們在公司網站ir.signetjewelers.com上發布的新聞稿。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to JK.

    接下來,我將把電話交給 JK。

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start the call this morning by thanking our team. Your efforts to date are delivering meaningful progress to this first year of Grow Brand Love while driving near-term momentum in our performance. Thank you for your hard work and commitment to our customers as we enter our critical holiday season. There are three key takeaways I'd like to leave you with today.

    謝謝羅布,大家早安。今天早上,我想先感謝我們的團隊。到目前為止,你們的努力為「提升品牌好感度」計畫的第一年帶來了實質的進展,同時也推動了我們近期業績的成​​長。感謝您在我們即將迎來關鍵的假期季節之際,為我們的客戶付出的辛勤努力和奉獻精神。今天想跟大家分享三個關鍵要點。

  • First, we delivered our third consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales and grew adjusted operating income double Q3 of last year.

    首先,我們連續第三個季度實現了同店銷售額正成長,調整後的營業收入比去年第三季翻了一番。

  • Second, our efforts to expand merchandise margin are delivering meaningful and sustainable results that have worked to drive operating margin expansion and offset pressure from tariffs and commodity pricing.

    其次,我們為擴大商品利潤率所做的努力正在取得有意義且可持續的成果,這些成果有助於擴大營業利潤率,並抵消關稅和商品價格帶來的壓力。

  • Third, we believe we're well positioned for the holiday season with a focused assortment aligned to key categories and price points, supported by a modernized marketing approach. Turning to the quarter. We delivered 3% same-store sales growth to this time last year.

    第三,我們相信,憑藉針對關鍵類別和價格點精心挑選的產品組合,以及現代化的營銷方式,我們已經為假日季做好了充分準備。轉向四分之一。與去年同期相比,我們的同店銷售額成長了3%。

  • Our three largest brands, Kay, Zales and Jared delivered a combined same-store sales performance of 6% to last year. That reflects our intentional focus on the core of our business with growth in both bridal and fashion categories. The results that we delivered this quarter are also a reflection of our brand equity work, assortment strategy and a refined approach to pricing and promotion.

    我們旗下三大品牌 Kay、Zales 和 Jared 的同店銷售額合計比去年成長了 6%。這體現了我們有意專注於業務核心,在婚紗和時裝領域實現成長的策略。本季所取得的業績也反映了我們在品牌資產建立、產品組合策略以及定價和促銷方面的改進。

  • Further, the reorganization under Grow Brand Love has empowered brand leaders to act swiftly on decisions that drive brand equity, fueled by a strengthened center of excellence that leverages our scale. Building on that, I'd like to highlight a few of the more significant factors in our Q3 results.

    此外,在「發展品牌忠誠度」計畫下的重組,賦予了品牌領導者更大的權力,讓他們能夠迅速做出推動品牌資產的決策,而這得益於我們規模優勢的強化卓越中心。在此基礎上,我想重點介紹一下我們第三季業績中幾個比較重要的因素。

  • Within merchandise, we delivered growth across all categories, bridal, fashion and watches. This performance underscores the strength of our assortment architecture and ability to respond to evolving consumer preferences. In bridal, continued focus on differentiated offerings and strategic pricing resonated most from mid-tier consumers with Kay, Zales and Peoples, all delivering high single-digit sales growth or better. This strong growth was led by long-standing brand collections like Neil Lane, Vera Wang and Monique Lhuilllier. In fashion, Jared delivered 10% comp sales growth, reflecting strong performance in diamond, gold and men's jewelry bolstered by strength of recent collections like Italia D'Oro.

    在商品方面,我們所有品類,包括婚紗、時裝和腕錶,都實現了成長。這項績效凸顯了我們產品組合架構的優勢以及應對不斷變化的消費者偏好的能力。在婚紗領域,持續專注於差異化產品和策略定價的做法最能引起中端消費者的共鳴,Kay、Zales 和 Peoples 等品牌均實現了接近兩位數的銷售成長或更高。這一強勁成長是由 Neil Lane、Vera Wang 和 Monique Lhuillier 等歷史悠久的品牌系列引領的。在時尚領域,Jared 實現了 10% 的同店銷售成長,這反映出鑽石、黃金和男士珠寶的強勁表現,而 Italia D'Oro 等近期系列的強勁勢頭也為此提供了助力。

  • Alongside that, we continue to see runway in the fashion category, particularly in lab-grown diamonds or LGDs, which expanded penetration to 15% of fashion sales this quarter, roughly double last year's rate. In marketing this quarter, we are making progress on modernizing our playbook.

    同時,我們繼續看到時尚領域的蓬勃發展,尤其是在實驗室培育鑽石(LGD)領域,本季其在時尚銷售額中的滲透率已擴大至 15%,約為去年同期水平的兩倍。本季度,我們在行銷方面正努力推動策略現代化。

  • This includes a more robust full funnel media strategy, amplified social media and digital first led content as well as brand ambassadors like Antonia Gentry and Chloe Fineman to drive buzzworthy campaigns. We continue to see double-digit growth in impressions off a low to mid-single-digit increase in spend from this updated approach. At Jared, we're using story-led marketing to drive results.

    這包括更強大的全通路媒體策略、加強社交媒體和以數位優先的內容,以及像 Antonia Gentry 和 Chloe Fineman 這樣的品牌大使來推動轟動的行銷活動。透過這種更新後的方法,我們看到廣告展示量持續實現兩位數成長,而廣告支出僅實現了個位數中低水準的成長。在 Jared,我們採用故事驅動行銷來推動績效成長。

  • This quarter, Jared launched its storied diamond collection in partnership with De Beers. This collection uses blockchain technology to track a stone's journey from its origin in Botswana all the way to its final setting in Jared's collection. Alongside this, we premiered A Diamond Is Born, a documentary by Academy Award-winning filmmaker, Luc Jacquet. This documentary details the diamond's journey as well as the lives that it enhances along the way. We look forward to seeing the impact of this campaign over the holiday as early results are driving traffic.

    本季度,Jared 與 De Beers 合作推出了其備受矚目的鑽石系列。該系列作品運用區塊鏈技術追蹤寶石從波札那的原產地到最終被 Jared 收藏的整個旅程。同時,我們也首映了奧斯卡得獎導演呂克·雅克執導的紀錄片《一顆鑽石的誕生》。這部紀錄片詳細記錄了這顆鑽石的旅程,以及它在過程中改善的人們的生活。我們期待在假期期間看到這項活動的影響,因為初步結果顯示流量正在成長。

  • My second key takeaway today relates to our efforts to expand merchandise margin. Year-to-date, we have delivered 50 basis points on merchandise margin expansion with 80 basis points for Q3 despite a significant impact from tariffs and increases in gold costs.

    我今天第二個重要的收穫與我們擴大商品利潤率的努力有關。今年迄今為止,儘管受到關稅和黃金成本上漲的重大影響,我們的商品毛利率仍增加了 50 個基點,第三季更是增加了 80 個基點。

  • We have been carefully rolling out a refined pricing and promotion strategy. While this has included select price increases, it's a much more fulsome playbook. We are carefully turning the dials on how many days our brands are on promo, what items are eligible and depth of discount, particularly the periods where there is no preexisting consumer expectation for value shopping.

    我們一直在精心推行一套完善的定價和促銷策略。雖然這其中包含一些價格上漲,但這套方案要全面得多。我們正謹慎地調整旗下品牌促銷的天數、促銷商品種類和折扣力度,尤其是在消費者對物美價廉的購物沒有預期的時期。

  • Promotion can be an effective traffic driver. But over reliance on it can impact brand equity and ultimately leave money on the table. Brand equity also helps drive margin expansion. Jared is furthest along with its brand identity work and overall pricing and promo strategy, leading to 25% reduced discounting to Q3 last year. Lastly, our high-margin services business is also growing faster than merchandise and helping expand margins.

    促銷可以成為有效的流量驅動因素。但過度依賴它會影響品牌資產,最終導致損失。品牌資產也有助於提高利潤率。Jared 在品牌形象塑造和整體定價及促銷策略方面進展最快,與去年第三季相比,折扣減少了 25%。最後,我們高利潤的服務業務成長速度也超過了商品業務,有助於擴大利潤率。

  • It's the overall combination of these efforts driving year-to-date results despite pressure from tariffs and notable increases to gold costs. With regards to the current tariff landscape and specifically India, we believe that we have mitigated a majority of the higher rates through strategic sourcing and the merchandise margin actions I've detailed and will be the same levers we look to as we set our sights on the year ahead.

    儘管面臨關稅壓力和黃金價格大幅上漲,但正是這些努力的綜合作用推動了今年迄今的表現。就目前的關稅情勢,特別是印度的關稅情勢而言,我們相信,透過策略採購和我詳細介紹的商品利潤率措施,我們已經緩解了大部分較高的關稅,這些也將是我們展望未來一年時所採取的相同手段。

  • Turning to the holiday season. Based on customer insight and preferences as well as learnings from last holiday, we have taken a decisive inventory position in key gifting items at targeted price points. This strategy includes on-trend categories like LGD fashion, men's fashion, gold jewelry and colored stones.

    假期將至。根據客戶洞察和偏好,以及從上個假期中吸取的經驗教訓,我們已在重點禮品方面採取了果斷的庫存策略,並設定了目標價格點。策略涵蓋了LGD時尚、男裝、黃金首飾和彩色寶石等潮流品類。

  • For example, we've made a material investment in LGD fashion at price points below $1,000 compared to last holiday. We're also being strategic in our marketing spend this holiday. More than 70% of adults now stream as a primary way to watch video. So we continue to rebalance the channels we spend into in order to drive efficient reach. This work will be even more important as we navigate a period of lower US consumer confidence.

    例如,與上個假期相比,我們已對價格低於 1000 美元的 LGD 時尚產品進行了實質投資。今年假期季,我們在行銷支出方面也採取了策略性措施。超過70%的成年人現在將串流媒體作為觀看影片的主要方式。因此,我們會不斷調整投入管道,以實現高效率的覆蓋。在我們應對美國消費者信心低迷時期之際,這項工作將顯得更加重要。

  • We've taken action to meet the more pronounced value expectations of consumers this season with a well-balanced assortment and promotional cadence. Delivering on holiday is our highest near-term priority and our Grow Brand Love Strategy continues to set the stage for sustainable long-term growth. Summarizing my key takeaways today. First, we delivered our third consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales and grew adjusted operating income double Q3 of last year.

    為了滿足本季消費者日益增長的價值期望,我們採取了措施,包括提供均衡的產品組合和促銷節奏。確保假日期間的正常營運是我們近期最重要的任務,而我們的「提升品牌喜愛度策略」將繼續為永續的長期成長奠定基礎。今天的主要收穫總結如下。首先,我們連續第三個季度實現了同店銷售額正成長,調整後的營業收入比去年第三季翻了一番。

  • Second, our efforts to expand merchandise margin are delivering meaningful and sustainable results that have worked to drive operating margin expansion and offset pressure from tariffs and commodity pricing. Third, we believe we're well positioned for the holiday season with a focused assortment aligned to key categories and price points and supported by a modernized marketing approach.

    其次,我們為擴大商品利潤率所做的努力正在取得有意義且可持續的成果,這些成果有助於擴大營業利潤率,並抵消關稅和商品價格帶來的壓力。第三,我們相信,憑藉與關鍵類別和價格點相符的精選產品組合以及現代化的營銷方式,我們已經為假期季節做好了充分準備。

  • With that, I'd like to turn it over to Joan.

    接下來,我想把麥克風交給瓊。

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, JK, and good morning, everyone. Revenue for the quarter was approximately $1.4 billion, with comp growth up 3% to last year. This reflects the expansion of average unit retail of 7%. Unit performance improved sequentially, while still down to last year, driven by a better performance at banter and sales. Fashion AUR grew 8%, largely on assortment mix to LGD fashion, which carries a higher AUR as well as higher gold prices.

    謝謝JK,大家早安。本季營收約 14 億美元,年增 3%。這反映了平均單位零售額成長了 7%。部門業績環比有所改善,但仍低於去年同期水平,主要得益於客座率和銷售業績的提升。時尚 AUR 成長了 8%,主要得益於產品組合向 LGD 時尚的轉變,LGD 時尚的 AUR 更高,金價也更高。

  • Bridal AUR grew 6% in the quarter reflecting a growing mix of LGD wedding and anniversary bands, which also carries a higher AUR than other bands. Importantly, services grew high single digits in the quarter with nearly five consecutive years of positive comps. We saw growth in extended service agreements, or ESAs which saw attachment rates up over 1.5 points in the quarter. This reflects higher attachment online for bridal and higher in-store attachment and fashion.

    本季新娘戒指的平均售價成長了 6%,反映出 LGD 結婚戒指和週年紀念戒指的銷量佔比不斷增長,這類戒指的平均售價也高於其他戒指。值得注意的是,服務業在本季實現了接近兩位數的成長,並且連續近五年實現了正成長。我們看到擴展服務協議(ESA)有所成長,該季度附加率上升超過 1.5 個百分點。這反映出消費者對線上婚紗的依賴度更高,對線下實體店時尚產品的依賴度更高。

  • Moving on to gross margin. We delivered a rate expansion of 130 basis points to last year. This was led by merchandise margin expansion of 80 basis points which JK detailed a moment ago. We also delivered 30 basis points of occupancy leverage, reflecting the efficiency within our operating model to expand margins on a slightly positive comp.

    接下來分析毛利率。我們實現了比去年高出130個基點的利率上調。這主要歸功於商品毛利率上升了 80 個基點,JK 剛才詳細介紹了這項數據。我們也實現了 30 個基點的入住率槓桿效應,這反映了我們營運模式的效率,使得在略微正成長的同比基礎上擴大了利潤率。

  • Lastly, we drove a 20-basis point improvement from distribution efficiencies, taking advantage of higher gold prices by accelerating scrap recovery as well as better shrink performance. The SG&A rate for the quarter was nearly flat despite a 70 basis point impact from higher incentive compensation.

    最後,我們透過提高分銷效率,利用金價上漲加快廢料回收,以及改善縮水性能,實現了 20 個基點的改進。儘管更高的激勵性薪酬帶來了 70 個基點的影響,但本季的銷售、一般及行政費用率基本持平。

  • Excluding the incentive compensation, SG&A improvement reflects more efficient marketing spend and store labor planning as well as favorability in transaction fee costs. Adjusted operating income was $32 million for the quarter. This result is ahead of our guidance equally on higher sales and operating efficiencies across gross margin and SG&A. The combination of our capital allocation strategy, further tariff mitigation efforts, the improvements in our operating model and the focus on the 3 largest brands led to a more than 2.5x increase in adjusted EPS. Turning to real estate.

    除激勵性薪酬外,銷售、一般及行政費用的改善反映了行銷支出和門市勞動力規劃的效率提高,以及交易費用成本的降低。本季調整後營業收入為3,200萬美元。這項結果超出了我們的預期,無論是在銷售額提高或毛利率和銷售、管理及行政費用方面,營運效率均有所提升。我們的資本配置策略、進一步的關稅緩解措施、營運模式的改進以及對三大品牌的關注,使得調整後的每股盈餘成長了 2.5 倍以上。轉戰房地產行業。

  • The work to refresh stores this year is already delivering mid-single-digit sales lift to stores recently renovated at Kay, Jared and Zales. Additionally, early results from the reposition in SK stores are also showing positive traction, pacing towards just over a two-year payback as we continue to relocate high-performing doors away from declining venues to better locations in otherwise strong markets.

    今年門市翻新工作已經為 Kay、Jared 和 Zales 近期翻新的門市帶來了中等個位數的銷售成長。此外,SK 門市重新定位的早期結果也顯示出積極的進展,隨著我們繼續將業績優異的門市從衰落的場所搬遷到其他強勁市場中更好的位置,預計兩年多一點的時間就能收回成本。

  • Now turning to the balance sheet. Inventory ended the quarter at $2.1 billion, down 1% to last year despite a nearly 50% increase in gold costs and higher tariffs. Cash ended the quarter at $235 million with total liquidity of approximately $1.4 billion with an undrawn ABL. Free cash flow improved by more than $100 million for the quarter and by more than $150 million year-to-date from timing of receipts that will shift payment to the fourth quarter and inventory discipline.

    現在來看資產負債表。儘管黃金成本上漲了近 50%,關稅也提高了,但本季末庫存仍為 21 億美元,比去年同期下降了 1%。本季末現金餘額為 2.35 億美元,總流動資金約為 14 億美元,另有一筆未提取的資產抵押貸款。由於收款時間調整(將付款推遲到第四季度)和庫存控制,本季自由現金流增加了 1 億美元以上,年初至今增加了 1.5 億美元以上。

  • We repurchased approximately $28 million or roughly 300,000 shares in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date repurchases to nearly $180 million or 2.8 million shares, which represents more than 6% of the diluted shares outstanding. Our remaining repurchase authorization is approximately $545 million. Turning to guidance. We are modestly updating our expectations.

    本季我們回購了約 2,800 萬美元或約 30 萬股股票,使我們今年迄今的回購額接近 1.8 億美元或 280 萬股,佔稀釋後流通股的 6% 以上。我們剩餘的回購授權額度約為 5.45 億美元。尋求指導。我們正在適度調整預期。

  • This includes raising the low end of our full year guide to reflect our beat in the third quarter, further tariff mitigation efforts and a measured outlook for the fourth quarter. This measured outlook reflects external disruptions since late October and potential continued softness in consumer confidence.

    這包括提高全年業績預期下限以反映我們第三季業績超出預期、進一步採取措施緩解關稅問題以及對第四季度採取謹慎的展望。這項謹慎的展望反映了10月下旬以來的外部幹擾以及消費者信心可能持續疲軟的情況。

  • We believe it's prudent to have a cautious approach to guidance given we've seen softer traffic in the past five weeks, particularly among brands with more exposure to lower to middle income households. We are raising our full year same-store sales low guide to down 0.2% and maintaining our high guide of plus 1.75% and introducing a fourth quarter same-store sales range of plus 0.5% to down 5%. With just over 70% of the quarter to go, we're well within that range.

    鑑於過去五週客流量有所下降,尤其是那些更接觸中低收入家庭的品牌,我們認為採取謹慎的指導方針是明智之舉。我們將全年同店銷售額的低預期上調至下降 0.2%,維持高預期為成長 1.75%,並引入第四季同店銷售額成長 0.5% 至下降 5% 的預期範圍。本季還剩 70% 多一點,我們完全在這個範圍內。

  • Our guidance assumes merchandise margin rate to be roughly flat to a slight increase in the quarter, providing some flexibility for the current macro environment. We are raising our full year adjusted operating income below guide by $20 million to $465 million and maintaining our high guide of $515 million. This translates to an increased adjusted EPS range of $8.43 to $9.59 per diluted share, inclusive of share repurchases to date.

    我們的預期是商品毛利率在本季基本持平或略有上升,這為當前的宏觀環境提供了一定的靈活性。我們將全年調整後營業收入預期上調 2,000 萬美元至 4.65 億美元,低於先前預期,並維持 5.15 億美元的高預期。這意味著調整後的每股盈餘範圍將擴大至每股攤薄收益 8.43 美元至 9.59 美元,其中包括迄今為止的股票回購。

  • Lastly, we're introducing a fourth quarter range of $277 million to $327 million of adjusted operating income. We also continue to expect $145 million to $160 million in capital expenditures for the year inclusive of pulling forward real estate spend to take advantage of the strong returns we've seen to date.

    最後,我們公佈第四季度調整後營業收入預期為 2.77 億美元至 3.27 億美元。我們也繼續預計,今年的資本支出將達到 1.45 億美元至 1.6 億美元,其中包括提前進行房地產支出,以利用我們迄今為止所看到的強勁回報。

  • Before we turn to Q&A, I'd like to thank the team for your dedication, resilience and focus this year. I wish a happy and healthy holiday season to you and to your families. Operator, let's now go to questions.

    在進入問答環節之前,我想感謝團隊今年的奉獻、韌性和專注。祝您和您的家人節日快樂,身體健康。操作員,現在進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Paul Lejuez, Citi.

    Paul Lejuez,花旗銀行。

  • Paul Lejuez - Analyst

    Paul Lejuez - Analyst

  • Hey there, guys. Curious if you could talk about what you've seen quarter-to-date and specifically over the Thanksgiving weekend, how that might have informed your comp guidance for 4Q? And maybe you could just dig in a little bit more about the external disruptions since late October that you referenced, just wanted to understand what you were referring to. If that was the traffic comments that you just made? Or if it was something else? Thanks.

    嘿,大家好。能否請您談談本季至今,特別是感恩節週末期間的觀察情況,以及這些情況如何影響您對第四季業績的預期?或許您可以更深入地探討一下您提到的自十月下旬以來的外部幹擾因素,我只是想了解您指的是什麼。如果你剛才發表的是關於交通的評論就是這個意思?或者,如果是別的事情呢?謝謝。

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Paul, thanks for the question. I think we've been pretty cautious as it relates to Q4 all year long. And our guide, we're maintaining a little bit of softness at the start of November, which, obviously, you've seen everything from consumer confidence surveys to issues with government shutdown Snap, our consumers are dealing with a lot.

    是的,保羅,謝謝你的提問。我認為我們今年對第四季一直都相當謹慎。我們的指南顯示,11 月初市場略顯疲軟,顯然,從消費者信心調查到政府停擺等問題,Snap 的消費者面臨許多挑戰。

  • And what we saw quarter-to-date is really seeing that play out a little bit, most notably in the brands that have a greater density of lower- and middle-income customers. Outside of the US, consistent trends in those brands of ours that have more exposure to high-income customers.

    而我們從本季至今所看到的現象,確實在某種程度上體現了這一點,尤其是在那些擁有較多中低收入客戶的品牌中。在美國以外,我們那些接觸高收入客戶的品牌呈現一致的趨勢。

  • We're still seeing spends be consistent. And so while we've watched a moderation of that and really believe that the holiday is going to happen per normal and that we've got confidence in our plan moving forward. We also didn't feel like that, that prudence around Q4 was wrong. We've been pretty consistent in that guide all year. And I think this is a reflection of that.

    我們看到支出仍然保持穩定。因此,儘管我們已經觀察到這種情況有所緩解,並且真心相信假期會照常進行,我們對未來的計劃也充滿信心。我們當時也不覺得,第四季採取謹慎態度是錯誤的。我們全年都基本上遵循這項指導原則。我認為這正反映了這一點。

  • As far as the weekend, we don't -- I don't know. What I've learned as I've looked through our data and seen play out is, first of all, Black Friday to Cyber Monday is just not as big of a of an impact on our quarter. If you look at the month of November, it's 25% of our total quarter. So for us, December is a whole lot more important. And good Black Friday, bad Black Friday in between really has very little bearing on our results.

    至於週末的事,我們不知道──我不知道。透過查看我們的數據和觀察實際情況,我了解到,首先,黑色星期五到網路星期一對我們季度業績的影響並沒有那麼大。如果只看11月的數據,就占我們整個季度的25%。所以對我們來說,十二月就重要得多。好的黑色星期五和壞的黑色星期五對我們的結果其實影響很小。

  • Our overall performance is so much more tied to those 10 days leading into to Christmas when you look at the volume, those days are more important than the whole month that we just finished. I think we've seen fairly consistent results quarter-to-date from all the way through Black Friday. So no big change there and no call for pessimism, but I think we're right to be guarded. And I do think we've got a customer that is going to be more intently focused on value as they come through the holiday and our guide and our actions are really focused on that.

    從銷售來看,我們的整體業績與聖誕節前那 10 天的業績聯繫更為緊密,那幾天的業績比我們剛結束的整個月的業績都更重要。我認為從本季到黑色星期五,我們已經看到了相當穩定的業績。所以情況沒有太大變化,也不至於悲觀,但我認為我們保持謹慎是正確的。而且我認為,我們的客戶在度假期間會更加重視價值,而我們的指南和行動也正是圍繞著這一點展開的。

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • (multiple speakers) well, I was going to add that the guide that we've given and what we've said in our prepared remarks is that we believe we're well within the top line guide for the fourth quarter, which is important. And to JK's point, we have 70% of the quarter ahead of us. And so at this position, we believe it's prudent to be conservatively positioned and provide for variability in consumer spending.

    (多位發言者)嗯,我本來想補充一點,我們給出的指導意見以及我們在準備好的發言稿中所說的是,我們相信我們第四季度的營收完全符合指導目標,這一點很重要。正如 JK 所說,我們還有 70% 的季度時間。因此,我們認為,在當前情況下,採取保守策略並應對消費者支出的波動是審慎之舉。

  • Paul Lejuez - Analyst

    Paul Lejuez - Analyst

  • Got it. And then I guess just a follow-up on the 10 days leading up to Christmas, obviously, I think you kind of had a miss there last year. So is it your expectation that once we get to that point that you would see an acceleration in sales as we move to that period within the quarter?

    知道了。然後,我想就聖誕節前的十天做個後續跟進,顯然,我認為你們去年在那段時間有點失策。所以您是否預期,一旦我們進入季度末的那個階段,銷售就會加速成長?

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We think we're well positioned for it. I mean I would say the -- if you recall, the opportunity that we had last year was we really were under inventoried relative to the sub-$500 and sub-$1,000 price points, particularly in the fashion side.

    我們認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。我的意思是,如果你還記得的話,我們去年的機會是,相對於 500 美元以下和 1000 美元以下的價格點,我們的庫存確實不足,尤其是在時尚方面。

  • And I mean, depending on what bucket you're looking at and what brand you're looking at, we've got anywhere from 5 to 8 times the inventory there, well positioned on trends, same investment, particularly in LGD fashion at those lower price points that has been driving improvement all year, and we're really ready for the business and I think have the right promotional cadence set up to be able to support what's going to resonate with customers. So we're certainly building towards that.

    我的意思是,根據你關注的是哪個品類和哪個品牌,我們的庫存量是原來的 5 到 8 倍,緊跟潮流,投資額也相同,尤其是在低價位的 LGD 時尚領域,全年業績都在穩步提升。我們已經做好了充分的準備,我認為我們已經制定了合適的促銷節奏,能夠支援那些能夠引起顧客共鳴的產品。所以我們正在朝著這個方向努力。

  • And I think we're positioned to be able to deliver value to customers during that time period, which also should represent an opportunity for us to drive performance different than last year.

    我認為我們有能力在此期間為客戶創造價值,這也應該為我們帶來與去年不同的業績成長機會。

  • Paul Lejuez - Analyst

    Paul Lejuez - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you for that.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America.

    洛琳‧哈欽森,美國銀行。

  • Lorraine Hutchinson - Analyst

    Lorraine Hutchinson - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. So last quarter, you spoke to the low end of guidance if the India tariffs remained. What were the key mitigating factors that had the biggest impact to allow you to raise that low end today?

    謝謝。早安.所以上個季度,你談到如果印度關稅保持不變,業績指引的下限。今天,哪些關鍵的緩解因素對您提高低端產品價格產生了最大的影響?

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I appreciate the question, Lorraine. And maybe more importantly, I appreciate the work our team has done to deliver it. We've never fully dimensionalized a number as it relates to tariffs in part because it moved around a lot. I think one of our challenges has always been, if I gave you a number on Tuesday, on Wednesday, it might look a little bit different just based off of the volatility there.

    是的。洛琳,感謝你的提問。更重要的是,我感謝我們的團隊為完成這項工作所付出的努力。我們從未對與關稅相關的數字進行完全量化,部分原因是它波動很大。我認為我們面臨的挑戰之一是,如果我在星期二給你一個數字,到了星期三,由於市場波動性,這個數字可能看起來會略有不同。

  • And even though even though we haven't seen the India tariffs pull back through a combination of a number of things, a lot of moves as it relates to country of origin to really partner with our supplier. When I talk about our teams, I'm not just talking about our merchants and supply chain folks who've worked hard, but upstream, our supplier partners have really been nimble. And we've moved some production to the U.S. We've moved some production to other countries. We've found ways to build efficiency in the supply chain.

    儘管由於多種因素,我們尚未看到印度關稅有所回落,但我們採取了許多措施,尤其是在原產國方面,以真正與我們的供應商建立合作關係。當我談到我們的團隊時,我指的不僅是辛勤工作的商家和供應鏈人員,還有上游的供應商合作夥伴,他們都非常靈活。我們已將部分生產轉移到美國,也已將部分生產轉移到其他國家。我們找到了提高供應鏈效率的方法。

  • In this environment, given the commodities, there is a little bit of price that has moved through. And I think we've been able to mitigate that and mute it ultimately to try to protect value for our customers along the way. And given what our team has worked through, particularly over the last couple of months, not only does that position us well for the holiday, but ultimately, these are the same levers that we will use to drive the businesses next year.

    在這種大宗商品環境下,價格出現了一些波動。我認為我們已經能夠減輕並最終消除這種影響,從而在過程中努力保護客戶的價值。鑑於我們的團隊,特別是過去幾個月所取得的成就,這不僅讓我們為假期做好了充分準備,而且最終,這些也是我們明年推動業務發展的相同槓桿。

  • But I'm -- I love you asked the question because I think it really does point to the fact that despite this disruption and moving from effectively a low of 5% tariff to north of 50% tariff in India. Our team has been able to do that, grow the business and actually raise the bottom side of guide and take that downside off of the table which I just think is great work across our business and also puts us in a position of strength as we're moving into this next year.

    但是——我很高興你問了這個問題,因為我認為這確實表明,儘管發生了這種混亂,印度的關稅從實際上較低的 5​​% 飆升至超過 50%。我們的團隊已經能夠做到這一點,發展業務,並實際提高指導方針的下限,消除下行風險,我認為這對我們整個業務來說都是一項了不起的工作,也使我們在邁向明年之際處於有利地位。

  • Lorraine Hutchinson - Analyst

    Lorraine Hutchinson - Analyst

  • Thanks. And then can we just talk a little bit more about pricing. With gold prices and tariffs, it sounds like you are pulling the pricing lever a little bit. How do you tread carefully enough, given that you're seeing that pressure at the low-income consumer, I guess, how do you balance the need to offset some of these cost pressures with the consumer struggles that you're seeing?

    謝謝。那我們能再詳細談談定價問題嗎?從黃金價格和關稅來看,你似乎在稍微影響價格走勢。鑑於低收入消費者面臨的壓力,該如何謹慎行事?我想,您該如何平衡抵銷部分成本壓力與消費者困境的需求?

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. It's -- thank you. I think that's the art and science of running a retail business right now. And for us, I'll break it into two parts. Gold as a straight commodity is -- and when you think about that, think about more go-forward pieces or things like gold chain, for example, that are all about gold.

    是的。是——謝謝。我認為這就是目前零售業經營的藝術和科學所在。至於我們這邊,我會把它分成兩個部分。黃金作為一種純粹的商品——當你想到這一點時,想想那些更具前瞻性的物件,例如金鍊,它們都與黃金有關。

  • I think historically, we've seen that customers understand that's a commodity market. They understand the value associated with it. And as we as we pass along the fluctuations of price on the -- that are purely commodity driven, we generally see customers recognize that value. And we are obviously tethered to a market and look to leverage our scale and strength of supply chain to make sure that we're offering the right value proposition relative to the rest of the market. I think our team does that well.

    我認為從歷史經驗來看,我們已經看到顧客們明白這是一個商品市場。他們明白其中的價值。當我們把純粹由商品價格驅動的價格波動傳遞下去時,我們通常會看到顧客認識到這種價值。我們顯然與市場息息相關,並希望利用我們的規模和供應鏈實力,確保我們相對於市場上的其他參與者提供正確的價值主張。我認為我們團隊在這方面做得很好。

  • And historically, we've -- every time we see what we think may be a ceiling, we recognize the consumer understands that commodity price and tends to be resilient because of the residual value of what they're buying. And so we may see a little bit of a drop off in units in gold as a result of some of those price increases.

    從歷史上看,每當我們看到價格可能達到上限時,我們都會意識到消費者理解商品價格,並且由於他們所購買商品的剩餘價值,他們往往會表現出較強的韌性。因此,由於部分價格上漲,我們可能會看到黃金交易量略有下降。

  • But from that plays out across the market, and we know how to navigate that pretty well. In the case of tariffs and/or other -- the other side of that coin, that's where it really becomes important for us to think about design, all of the elements of a piece of jewelry and how do we leverage design and our supply chain and supplier partner base. to really drive sharp adherence to some of these key price points.

    但這種趨勢會波及整個市場,而我們很擅長應對這種情況。就關稅和/或其他因素而言——也就是硬幣的另一面——這正是我們真正需要考慮設計的地方,一件珠寶的所有元素,以及我們如何利用設計、供應鏈和供應商合作夥伴基礎,來真正推動嚴格遵守一些關鍵價格點。

  • And I think that is more important this time of year than ever. If I look at a business like Kay, for example, sub-$500. We're significantly higher on inventory and positioning than where we were last year because we know that's going to be critically important to that customer. That customer we'll understand those key price points, whether it's that item that I buy for $199 or $299 or $500 and we work hard to engineer a product that still delivers value proposition and carries that emotional value but can stay within the price point ranges that make sense for the holiday.

    我認為在每年的這個時候,這一點比以往任何時候都更重要。例如,如果我看看像 Kay 這樣的企業,年收入低於 500 美元。我們的庫存和貨架擺放位置比去年要高得多,因為我們知道這對客戶來說至關重要。我們會了解客戶的關鍵價格點,無論是我購買的商品價格是 199 美元、299 美元還是 500 美元,我們都會努力設計出既能提供價值主張又能承載情感價值的產品,同時還能保持在適合節日的價格範圍內。

  • Lorraine Hutchinson - Analyst

    Lorraine Hutchinson - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Randy Konik, Jefferies.

    Randy Konik,傑富瑞集團。

  • Randal Konik - Equity Analyst

    Randal Konik - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thanks a lot. I guess, Joan, maybe what would be helpful is to kind of hindsight fourth quarter last year. Maybe give us a little bit more color on, if not quantitatively, more qualitatively how the quarter played out and kind of how you think about that as it pertains to fourth quarter this year, I think you said that the 10 days, 14 days, whatever it was before Christmas last year were pretty difficult, providing opportunity. So it'd just be helpful to kind of get some perspective on how everything kind of played out last year to give some perspective how things should maybe play out this year?

    偉大的。多謝。我想,瓊,或許回顧一下去年第四季的情況會有幫助。或許可以更詳細地介紹一下,即使不能量化,也可以定性地談談本季的情況,以及您如何看待它與今年第四季的關係。我想您說過,去年聖誕節前的 10 天、14 天,不管是多久,都非常艱難,但也帶來了機會。所以,了解去年事情的大致發展情況,對於預測今年事情的發展方向會很有幫助?

  • And then as a follow-up to that, commentary. Maybe JP can give us some perspective of what you're kind of constructing teams to do to execute the holiday season to make it a success. You've done a good job or done work around marketing and merchandising. So just kind of just give us your thoughts on what you're instructing everyone to kind of get done over the next 30 to 60 days. Thanks, guys.

    然後,作為後續評論。或許 JP 可以給我們介紹一下,你們是如何組建團隊來執行假日季活動並確保其成功的。你在行銷和商品銷售方面做得很好。所以,請您簡單介紹一下您打算如何安排大家在接下來的 30 到 60 天內完成的工作。謝謝各位。

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • So thanks, Randy. With respect to last year, I mean, it was clear that we had assortment gaps in key gift-giving price points, particularly under 1,000 and even more so under 500. And we did not have the lab-grown penetration in fashion that, particularly in fashion somewhat in bridal, but we didn't have that penetration last year.

    謝謝你,蘭迪。就去年而言,我的意思是,很明顯,我們在關鍵的送禮價格點上存在產品種類缺口,尤其是在 1000 以下的價格區間,500 以下的價格區間就更是如此。而且,我們在時尚界,特別是婚紗時尚界,還沒有實現實驗室培育產品的滲透,但去年我們還沒有實現這種滲透。

  • This year, lab diamonds are roughly 40% of our bridal business and they're up to 15%, double last year in our lab-grown fashion business. So we've closed that gap and really responded to what the customer is -- was asking for last year that we didn't have, and we've now bridged that gap. So we feel strongly about the assortment architecture that we've been able to put forward.

    今年,實驗室培育鑽石約占我們婚禮業務的 40%,而在我們實驗室培育時尚業務中,這一比例上升至 15%,是去年的兩倍。所以我們已經彌合了這一差距,真正回應了客戶的需求——去年客戶提出了我們沒有提出的要求,現在我們已經彌補了這一差距。因此,我們對我們提出的產品組合架構充滿信心。

  • Importantly, Randy, the next step of that is our -- we need to be in depth position in key price points in key styles. The team has worked very diligently to ensure that as we progress through the holiday selling period and we approach the last 10 days before Christmas, which we know is critically important, we're in stock in the key items that the customer is responding to.

    蘭迪,重要的是,下一步是——我們需要在關鍵價位和關鍵款式上佔據深入的市場地位。團隊一直非常努力地工作,以確保在假日銷售期臨近,以及聖誕節前最後 10 天(我們知道這至關重要)之際,我們能夠保證顧客關注的關鍵商品庫存充足。

  • One of the things that we're seeing that gives us confidence is that our conversion from quarter-to-quarter has been relatively consistent. So we believe as we get closer to the holiday selling period, we're seeing strength in our traffic in brick-and-mortar.

    令我們充滿信心的一點是,我們的季度轉換率一直相對穩定。因此,我們相信隨著假日銷售季的臨近,實體店的客流量會越來越強勁。

  • It's stronger, that, that will bode well for us on top of the conversion metric that has remained relatively consistent. So that speaks to for us, the strength of our assortment and closing that gap. We also have fortified post holiday selling -- it's -- as you'll recall, we lead up to Valentine's Day in the month of January. It's not as big of a holiday for us, but it's an important holiday for us. And we've ensured that we are in stock and have received flow post the holiday selling season, which will bode well for the first quarter of next year.

    它的強度更高,這對我們來說是個好兆頭,再加上轉換率指標一直保持相對穩定。這說明我們產品組合的優勢,以及我們縮小差距的能力。我們也加強了節後銷售——正如您所知,我們在一月份就開始為情人節做準備。對我們來說,這雖然不是什麼盛大的節日,但卻是一個很重要的節日。我們已確保庫存充足,並在假日銷售季後實現了良好的供貨,這對明年第一季來說是個好兆頭。

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think as far as the next 30 to 60 days, I mean Joan touched on it. December is a critically important month, and it is particularly important because that's when customers who shop our category really do come more into the mindset of making a purchase. And we are a great last-minute option, whether that's because people save for it or because it's a simple solution at the end. I think it's incumbent on us to make sure that we make that as frictionless for customers as possible. And I think if -- of anything, this category can be a little bit intimidating to customers.

    至於接下來的 30 到 60 天,我的意思是,瓊已經提到過了。十二月是至關重要的月份,尤其重要,因為在這個月份,我們這個類別的顧客更有可能產生購買意願。我們是一個很好的臨時選擇,無論是因為人們存錢購買,還是因為最終這是一個簡單的解決方案。我認為我們有責任確保盡可能為客戶簡化流程,並減少摩擦。而且我認為,如果有什麼的話,那就是這個類別可能會讓顧客感到有些畏懼。

  • And at a time period where I think there's a little bit more going on with a little bit more uncertainty in our lives leading up to the holiday as consumers the more we can simplify and focus our message for them, I think the better off we are.

    在假期臨近之際,我認為生活中會有更多的事情發生,也有更多的不確定性,因此,作為消費者,我們越能簡化和集中我們的訊息,對他們就越有利。

  • And to Joan's point, that really does mean honing in on simple value propositions, trying to really streamline promotions so that it's less complex, and we're much more straightforward with customers around what the value proposition is. I think that's a risk. And one of the things we've learned as we've looked at the consumer response this month is simpler is better. And so the more we can simplify that and be straightforward the better off we are.

    正如瓊所說,這確實意味著要專注於簡單的價值主張,努力簡化促銷活動,使其不那麼複雜,我們要更直接地向客戶說明價值主張是什麼。我認為這是一種風險。本月我們觀察消費者回饋後發現,越簡單越好。因此,我們越能簡化問題、越直截了當,對我們就越有利。

  • And then from an operational standpoint, it is about making sure we've got inventory in the right place that we maintain depth and in particular, have product available, not only for shipment online, particularly in the first half of the month. But as we move towards the end of the month, it's about having product available in store so that we can focus on the biggest opportunity we have, which is conversion. What we're seeing is some modest improvements in conversion. So if we -- and that was really -- that was the opportunity last year. If we're really honest about our shortfall, particularly in those 10 days.

    從營運角度來看,關鍵在於確保庫存充足,保持庫存深度,尤其是在上半月,不僅要確保線上出貨,還要確保產品供應。但隨著月底臨近,關鍵在於確保店內有貨,這樣我們才能專注於我們最大的機會——轉換率。我們看到轉換率略有提高。所以如果我們——而那確實是——那是去年的機會。如果我們真的誠實地面對我們的不足,尤其是在那10天裡。

  • It was not a traffic opportunity for us. It was a conversion opportunity. There was a very clear message from customers that we were not as good at delivering the merchandise that they needed to solve that the gift that they were looking for, we're much better positioned today to do that. I think you see that playing out and in our Q3 results when you look at strength across all categories.

    對我們來說,這不是一個交通運輸機會。這是一個轉化機會。顧客們非常明確地表示,我們過去在提供他們需要的商品以解決他們正在尋找的禮物問題方面做得不夠好,而現在我們在這方面已經做好了更充分的準備。我認為這一點在我們第三季的業績中得到了體現,當你查看所有類別的業績時,你會發現我們各類別都表現出了強勁的勢頭。

  • And so now it really is about making sure that we get that message in front of people simply. We're executing tightly and have that inventory we've invested in available at the point of purchase. And then ultimately, we're doing what we can from an operational standpoint within all the brands to convert and get them on their way to celebrate the holiday with their love ones.

    所以現在真正的重點在於確保我們能夠以最簡單的方式將這個訊息傳達給人們。我們執行得非常嚴格,並且我們投資的庫存可以在購買點提供。最終,我們將從營運的角度出發,盡我們所能地在所有品牌中促成轉化,讓他們能夠與親人一起慶祝節日。

  • Randal Konik - Equity Analyst

    Randal Konik - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And then when you think about the bridal category versus the fashion category, just as an industry, how do you think -- how do you feel about those two different sectors? And then when you think about architecting the business over the next -- and changes to it over the next 12 to 24 months, are you thinking about changing the balance between bridal and fashion at all any changes you're contemplating thoughts on the portfolio? You keep talking to a distortion of capital towards the mega brands of Kay, Zales and Jared, just kind of curious on how you're thinking about the next 12 to 24 months moving things around the chessboard?

    偉大的。那麼,當你從行業角度來考慮婚紗類別和時尚類別時,你對這兩個不同的領域有什麼看法?那麼,當您考慮未來 12 至 24 個月的業務架構和變化時,您是否考慮過改變婚紗和時尚之間的平衡?您是否正在考慮對產品組合進行任何更改?你一直在談論資本向 Kay、Zales 和 Jared 等超級品牌的傾斜,我很好奇你如何看待未來 12 到 24 個月內市場格局的變動?

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it's a great question. I'll answer part of it and probably push part of it until after the holiday because I -- the last thing I want to do is introduce a lot of hypotheticals to our team as we should be really focused on closing with customers and really delivering the holiday. To your point, we love the balance of the two, honestly. And I mean given the share we have in bridal, we want to maintain that dominance. But we recognize that, that it is harder to gain outsized growth there because we do set in a position of dominance.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我會回答一部分,可能會把另一部分推遲到假期之後再回答,因為我——我最不想做的就是向我們的團隊引入很多假設性的問題,我們應該真正專注於與客戶達成交易,真正做好假期的交付工作。你說得對,說實話,我們很喜歡這兩者之間的平衡。我的意思是,鑑於我們在婚紗市場的份額,我們希望保持這種主導地位。但我們認識到,在那裡獲得超額成長比較困難,因為我們處於主導地位。

  • We certainly don't want to see that. We love that balance within our business. We love being there for customers with that important point in their life, and we're going to continue to be dominant and bridal across the business. No question about that. We talk a lot about fashion just because it's underdeveloped relative to our business, and that's where the opportunity for outsized growth is.

    我們當然不希望看到這種情況。我們喜歡公司內部這種平衡。我們很榮幸能陪伴顧客度過人生中這個重要的時刻,我們將繼續在婚禮產業中保持領先地位。這點毋庸置疑。我們經常談論時尚,是因為相對於我們的業務而言,時尚產業發展不足,而時尚產業蘊藏著巨大的成長機會。

  • So mathematically, that may change the mix over time. It isn't about a pivot away from fashion, and it's absolutely about a pivot -- or excuse me, a pivot away from bridal. It's more about a pivot into the opportunity that fashion presents for our business and the overall lift that can provide to the total portfolio.

    從數學角度來看,隨著時間的推移,這種組合可能會改變。這不是要放棄時尚,而是要徹底放棄──或者更確切地說,要放棄婚紗。更重要的是,我們要抓住時尚產業為我們業務帶來的機遇,並藉此提升整體業務組合。

  • And I think the work we're doing to further delineate and position our brands to be complementary in that regard, give us degrees of freedom to lean a little more heavily in some brands into fashion and also stay a little more staunchly in the bridal focused area for other brands. As far as the portfolio is concerned and capital, I think once we get through the holidays, it's a great time for us to talk about some of the other strategic opportunities that we have.

    我認為,我們正在努力進一步明確和定位我們的品牌,使它們在這方面互補,這給了我們一定的自由度,讓我們能夠在某些品牌中更加側重於時尚領域,同時在其他品牌中更加堅定地專注於婚紗領域。就投資組合和資本而言,我認為一旦我們度過假期,就是我們討論其他一些策略機會的好時機。

  • We've alluded to a few of them. And I think given -- as we've said all along with some of the other non-core brand decisions once we get through Q4, we'll be in a position to lay out thoughts. But I think the focus we've had on our core brands to really reignite growth across our business is what gives us not only confidence, but the degrees of freedom to really think a little more aggressively around how we deploy capital strategically across the business to continue to generate growth.

    我們已經提到過其中一些。我認為,正如我們一直以來所說的那樣,一旦我們度過了第四季度,我們將能夠闡述一些其他非核心品牌決策,屆時我們將能夠闡述我們的想法。但我認為,我們專注於核心品牌,真正重振業務成長,這不僅給了我們信心,也給了我們更大的自由度,讓我們能夠更積極地思考如何策略性地在整個業務中部署資本,從而繼續創造成長。

  • Randal Konik - Equity Analyst

    Randal Konik - Equity Analyst

  • Super helpful. Thanks, guys.

    非常有用。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo.

    艾克·博魯喬夫,富國銀行。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning, everyone. To the first question is really just about promo. Maybe JK or Joan, could you talk about the Black Friday week, what your strategies were. Did you deviate from those at all? And then kind of how does promo play into comment -- the cautious commentary. So understanding that the comp guide, just kind of curious how your markdown strategy is planned for the holiday today?

    嘿。各位早安。第一個問題其實只是關於促銷的。JK或Joan,你們能不能談談黑色星期五那一週的狀況,你們的策略是什麼?你是否完全偏離了這些規定?然後,宣傳是如何融入評論的——謹慎的評論。了解了促銷指南後,我只是有點好奇你們今天假期的降價策略是什麼?

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • So over the weekend, Cyber 5, we stayed on plan. We were -- in terms of our promotional strategy, we were pleased with how we were able to lean out some discount in the appropriate places within our business. And really believe that, that strategy served us well from -- particularly from a margin perspective. As we head into the holiday selling season, I would say that we are into peak selling, we are -- we have a plan that gives us flexibility. I noted that our guide for the fourth quarter is -- gives us some allows for some variability in consumer spending.

    所以,在週末的 Cyber​​ 5 活動中,我們按計劃進行。就我們的促銷策略而言,我們很高興能夠在業務的適當方面提供一些折扣。而且我真的相信,這項策略對我們非常有效,尤其是在利潤率方面。隨著假日銷售季的臨近,我認為我們已經進入了銷售高峰期,我們制定了一個讓我們能夠靈活應對的計劃。我注意到,我們對第四季的指導意見是——這允許消費者支出出現一些波動。

  • And I believe and we believe as a team that, that's a prudent measure, just as we navigate our way through the next 70% of business in our quarter. So it's important that we retain that flexibility. The discounting, as we think about it, one of the things from an earlier question, is our assortment architecture that we've created for the fourth quarter gives us those price points buckets like that really allow us to serve customers at different levels under $1,000, and it provides for the variability in consumer household incomes that our portfolio spans in terms of the mid-market.

    而且我相信,我們團隊也相信,這是一個審慎的措施,就像我們努力完成本季接下來 70% 的業務一樣。所以保持這種靈活性很重要。我們認為,折扣(正如先前問題中提到的)是我們為第四季度創建的產品組合架構,它使我們能夠以低於 1000 美元的價格區間為不同層次的客戶提供服務,並滿足了我們產品組合在中端市場所涵蓋的消費者家庭收入的差異。

  • So our strategy allows for that not only in promotion, but in assortment architecture. We believe that's just as important. We have a nice assortment in what we would consider wild price points in -- with depth in those styles that can serve customers under $1,000 and under $100. So it's really about understanding the customer for each of the brands.

    因此,我們的策略不僅體現在促銷方面,也體現在產品組合架構方面。我們認為這一點同樣重要。我們有很多款式,價格範圍很廣——其中既有價格低於 1000 美元的,也有價格低於 100 美元的。所以關鍵在於了解每個品牌的客戶。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Got it. And then within that, Joan, could you maybe for 4Q specifically, the gross margin plan? And could you kind of intertwine your promo plan along with whatever the tariff headwind is? Like basically, you stack the puts and takes for 4Q gross margin that's embedded in the EBIT guide?

    知道了。那麼,瓊,你能否具體談談第四季的毛利率計畫?你能不能把你的促銷計劃和關稅方面的不利因素結合起來考慮?基本上,你把第四季毛利率的買賣盤疊起來,而這個毛利率已經包含在息稅前利潤預期中了?

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • So for the fourth quarter, our GMM rate, our gross merchandise margin rate considered flat to flat to a slightly up view. And that's what's giving us the flexibility that we may need depending on those consumer spending patterns. You'll recall like leading into the third quarter, we had an expansion of 50 basis points. And again, you heard our results this quarter were very good in terms of margin expansion. Some of that came from pricing and a large part of it also came from architecture within the assortment.

    因此,對於第四季度,我們的商品毛利率預計會持平或略有上升。正是這一點賦予了我們根據消費者支出模式可能需要的靈活性。您可能還記得,在進入第三季時,我們的經濟擴張了 50 個基點。再次強調,你們也聽到了,我們本季的利潤率擴張非常好。部分原因在於定價,很大一部分原因在於產品系列的設計。

  • So we're continuing through that but giving our continue with the architecture, but giving ourselves that pricing flexibility. So that's the overall view of a GMM. As you know, and we've said in the past that our gross margin, we're able to leverage gross margin on a slightly positive comp. And so that considers just some of the work that we've been doing in our operating model efficiency within our distribution centers, we actually took advantage of and will continue to do so in the fourth quarter.

    所以我們正在繼續推進這項工作,在維持現有架構的同時,也為自己提供定價方面的彈性。以上就是GMM的整體概覽。如您所知,我們過去也說過,我們的毛利率,我們能夠利用略微正向的同店銷售額來提高毛利率。因此,這只是我們為提高配送中心的營運模式效率所做的一些工作,我們在第四季度已經充分利用了這些工作,並將繼續這樣做。

  • We took advantage of the gold price and accelerated some planned (inaudible) recovery that we typically do in our business, but we accelerated it to take advantage of the pricing. So we're taking all of those measures in hand and bringing those forward into the fourth quarter as well.

    我們利用金價上漲的機會,加快了我們通常在業務中開展的一些計劃內的(聽不清楚)復甦工作,但我們加快了復甦速度,以便利用金價上漲的優勢。因此,我們正在採取所有這些措施,並將這些措施推進到第四季。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Just so I'm clear. So the merchant margin flat to up, but the comp is negative, would gross margin be down due to deleverage on fixed costs within cards?

    我確認一下。因此,商家利潤率持平或上升,但同店銷售額為負,毛利率是否會因為信用卡固定成本槓桿化而下降?

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, that's accurate.

    是的,沒錯。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. Thanks, guys.

    好的。好的。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dana Telsey, Telsey Group.

    Dana Telsey,Telsey集團。

  • Dana Telsey - Analyst

    Dana Telsey - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Nice to see the progress. I think you had mentioned about some of the smaller banners like James Allen or Banter for the second half of the year, a guide towards the 60 to 90 basis point margin drag. Is that still in place? Or has anything changed there?

    嘿,大家早安。很高興看到取得進展。我認為你曾經提到過一些規模較小的廣告公司,例如 James Allen 或 Banter,它們在下半年可能會出現 60 到 90 個基點的利潤率下滑。這項規定仍然有效嗎?或者情況有什麼變化嗎?

  • And two other things, given the upcoming holiday season and the opportunity for this year, what is the percentage of newness that you're thinking about in the assortment, whether for bridal or fashion for this fourth quarter? And Joan, any updates on the real estate optimization plans? Thank you.

    還有兩件事,考慮到即將到來的假期季節和今年的機會,您認為第四季度婚紗或時裝系列的新品比例是多少?瓊,房地產優化計畫有什麼最新進展嗎?謝謝。

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • So I'll start with James Allen. Right now, our guide would assume that we are -- it would negatively impact comps by 120 basis points. It's been relatively consistent throughout the back half. We've seen some slight improvement in certain periods of time. But overall, that's the negative impact that we would see on overall comp in the -- we saw it in this quarter, and we would expect the same in the fourth quarter.

    那我就先從詹姆斯艾倫說起吧。目前,我們的指南會假設我們正處於這種情況——這將對同業競爭產生 120 個基點的負面影響。下半季整體表現相對穩定。在某些時期,我們看到情況略有改善。但總的來說,這就是我們將在本季度看到的整體薪酬受到的負面影響——我們在本季度看到了這一點,我們預計第四季度也會出現同樣的情況。

  • With respect to newness, we target roughly 30%, Dana. The most important part of that is what is the content of the newness and the depth in styles. And so in the past, we may -- as we saw last year, we had a breadth of assortment, but weren't deep enough in styles that we're resonating with the customers. So while the factor -- the percentage is important, it's the content and depth of the key item that's most important. And then the real estate update, I mentioned it in my prepared remarks, but we're very pleased with the results in our refresh program.

    就新品率而言,我們的目標大約是 30%,達娜。其中最重要的是新穎性和風格的深度體現在哪些方面。因此,過去我們可能——就像我們去年看到的那樣——我們擁有廣泛的產品種類,但款式不夠豐富,無法引起顧客的共鳴。所以,雖然百分比這個因素很重要,但關鍵項目的內容和深度才是最重要的。關於房地產的最新進展,我在事先準備好的演講稿中提到過,我們對翻新計畫的成果非常滿意。

  • And it's up mid-single-digit comps from the brands that we've refreshed and largely our largest brands. And the renovations have been particularly strong for us, just over a two-year payback. And you can really see the results of that within our Jared business. The team has done a terrific job in bringing to the customer a more modern view of that brand and upscale the interior to meet the product assortment that has been leveled up from an offering perspective. But obviously, while maintaining the right assortment architecture to cover a wide range of price points.

    而且,我們更新的品牌,尤其是我們最大的品牌,其銷售額實現了中等個位數的成長。而且,翻新工程對我們來說效益尤其可觀,兩年多一點的時間就回本了。而這確實在我們 Jared 的業務中得到了體現。團隊出色地完成了工作,為顧客帶來了更現代化的品牌形象,並提升了內部裝潢,以匹配產品系列從供應角度來看已經升級的水平。但顯然,同時也要保持正確的產品組合架構,以涵蓋廣泛的價格範圍。

  • So really pleased with that. We still intend to close up to 100 stores this year over the next two years, we think it's roughly 150 stores. Several of those, Dana, are in Banter which are -- have been in declining malls and we'll understand if there's a repositioned strategy for those locations. Banter is a highly productive brand for us, and it has a strong four-wall contribution. And so we'll really evaluate where that -- the future might be in terms of newer locations for that brand.

    對此我非常滿意。我們仍然計劃在未來兩年內關閉多達 100 家門市,我們認為大約是 150 家。達娜,其中幾家店位於 Banter,而 Banter 所在的商場正在衰落,如果這些門市有重新定位的策略,我們會理解的。Banter 對我們來說是一個非常有效率的品牌,它在實體店中發揮著重要作用。因此,我們將認真評估品牌未來在新地點的發展方向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Lick, Stephens.

    傑夫·利克,史蒂芬斯。

  • Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I was wondering if you could maybe unpack a little bit more. I think those of us have been following the story. We've all looked at Q4 as this kind of this battle between the consumer versus the improvements you're making.

    早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。我想問您能否再詳細解釋一下。我認為我們這些一直在關注這件事的人都明白這一點。我們都把第四季看作是消費者與你所做的改進之間的一場較量。

  • If I use last year's EBITDA of [$394 million] and then the high end of your EBITDA this year at [$374 million] it kind of implies that almost no matter what the consumer element is a bigger factor than the improvements that you're making. It kind of seems like your improvements are whether it's a fashion or just the lab in diamonds we have.

    如果我使用去年的 EBITDA [3.94 億美元],然後使用今年 EBITDA 的上限 [3.74 億美元],這似乎意味著,無論如何,消費者因素比你所做的改進更為重要。看起來你們的改進似乎與時尚有關,或者只是我們擁有的實驗室鑽石有關。

  • Could you maybe just unpack? Are we -- is that how it should be read? Or is it possible that things could come in much better because from the get-go, it seems like the consumer element seems to be a much bigger factor than the -- what was thought to be pretty sizable improvements potential for Q4 this year?

    您能先把行李收拾一下嗎?我們──是這樣理解的嗎?或者,情況有可能好轉得多,因為從一開始,消費者因素似乎比——人們認為今年第四季會有相當大的改進潛力——要重要得多?

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Jeff, maybe Joan and I can tag team this one. I think there's two things to unpack there. As far as any sort of guardedness on Q4. I do think from day one of this year, we have -- despite the opportunity for improvement in top line for Q4, we've been a little bit guarded just knowing that -- some of the consumer uncertainty, what that may mean to the competitive landscape, we want to retain the flexibility to be responsive in the market to their needs as well as some of the curve balls as it relates to costs, not just on the commodity side, but especially with tariffs. Those have all been considerations and led to what has been actually a pretty consistent guide for Q4 from day one.

    傑夫,或許我和瓊可以聯手完成這件事。我認為這裡有兩件事需要分析。至於第四季是否存在任何形式的謹慎態度。我認為從今年的第一天起,儘管第四季度營收有機會提升,但我們一直保持謹慎,因為我們知道消費者存在一些不確定性,這可能會對競爭格局產生影響。我們希望保持靈活性,以便能夠對市場需求做出快速反應,並應對與成本相關的各種突發情況,不僅是商品成本,尤其是關稅方面。這些都是需要考慮的因素,並且從一開始就形成了相當一致的第四季業績指引。

  • When you're looking at EBIT for that quarter, incentive comp is a pretty big factor when you start thinking about the reload of incentive comp and how that plays out. And so it's -- you've got a little bit of apples and oranges that may be going into the comparison there. But listen, I think this is an environment where we also want to retain the ability to be responsive to the consumer at a time period where they have been dealing with a lot. And we feel like maintaining that flexibility to continue to drive momentum is really important for us. And I think our guide reflects that.

    在計算該季度的息稅前利潤時,激勵性薪酬是一個相當大的因素,因為你需要考慮激勵性薪酬的重新調整以及它如何發揮作用。所以,這就有點像是拿蘋果和橘子做比較,兩者之間可能存在一些不恰當的關聯。但是,我認為在當前這種消費者承受著巨大壓力的時期,我們也需要維持對消費者需求的快速反應能力。我們認為保持這種靈活性以繼續推動發展勢頭對我們來說非常重要。我認為我們的指南也體現了這一點。

  • And so I don't know, Joan, if there's anything you want to add to it. But that's -- if I were trying to summarize or give you a synopsis of maybe how to square up those two parts of the story, that's the intersection that makes sense to me.

    所以,瓊,我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。但是──如果我要概括或給你一個概要,說明如何將故事的這兩個部分連結起來,那就是我認為有意義的交集。

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • The only thing I'd add is that our Q3 momentum, we feel the business had momentum, has momentum. We are seeing a stronger we're seeing a slightly increase -- a slight increase in conversion rate, which, to us, speaks to the architecture and the assortment that we're bringing forward, we are able to reset some of the -- with respect to tariffs, we've been able to offset those while driving in the assortment architecture that continues to aid us in merchandise margins. So that's a positive, Jeff.

    我唯一要補充的是,我們感覺到公司第三季的發展勢頭良好,而且這種勢頭依然強勁。我們看到轉換率略有上升,這對我們來說表明我們正在推進的架構和產品組合,我們能夠重新調整一些——就關稅而言,我們已經能夠抵消這些影響,同時推進產品組合架構,這將繼續幫助我們提高商品利潤率。所以這是個好消息,傑夫。

  • And then I think some deleverage on fixed costs that the lower end of our guide is part of that. But to JK's point, almost at the high, we expect deleverage in SG&A. But it's entirely related to the incentive comp reset, much of what we saw in third quarter. And at the low end of the guide, it's really, to a lesser degree, incentive comp, but also that fixed cost to leverage. So we'd like the assortment. We like the position and just responding to what might happen at the range of our guide.

    我認為,固定成本的去槓桿化也是我們指南中較低價格部分的原因之一。但正如 JK 所指出的,幾乎在高位,我們預計 SG&A 的槓桿率會下降。但這完全與激勵薪酬重置有關,也就是我們在第三季看到的大部分情況。而從指引的低端來看,激勵性薪酬在較小程度上是主要因素,但固定成本也是槓桿作用的體現。所以我們想要各種各樣的商品。我們喜歡這種位置,只需根據嚮導的指示做出反應即可。

  • Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, don't misunderstand the question. I think it's prudent to get the guidance that you gave. We're just trying to handicap those two kind of opposing forces. One quick question on the Indian tariffs. Is there any chance you can give us a sense of the dollar amount if, let's say, tariffs were to go back to, say, 25%, 20%, which is kind of what the other countries are getting? How much of an eventual obviously, it won't be instant because of the way inventory turns? But how much of a get back -- or how much dollars have you absorbed or could you get back?

    是的,別誤解了我的問題。我認為採納您提供的指導意見是明智之舉。我們只是想削弱這兩種對立的力量。關於印度關稅,我有個問題想問一下。如果關稅恢復到例如 25% 或 20%(其他國家目前面臨的關稅水準),您能否大致估算一下美元金額?最終能達到多少?顯然不會立即實現,因為庫存週轉速度很快。但是你能拿回多少?或者說,你已經損失了多少錢,或者你能拿回多少錢?

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That is -- in this world, that is a what should be a simple question, but is actually much harder only because in some cases, we made decisions around relocating to a different country of origin or even potentially changing design and what we would buy to maintain not just assortment architecture but margin architecture in some of those things.

    也就是說——在這個世界上,這本應是一個簡單的問題,但實際上卻困難得多,因為在某些情況下,我們必須做出一些決定,例如搬遷到不同的原產國,甚至改變設計和採購方式,以維持某些產品的品類結構和利潤率結構。

  • So it's -- I would say the -- gosh, it's -- because we haven't dimensionalized a headwind, I can't as easily articulate what the giveback may be, I would say, the plus of that pullback would be the range of product and the predictability of supply chain relative to really being able to lean into top line driving performance is greatly aided by a reduction in tariffs.

    所以——我想說——哎呀,因為我們還沒有量化逆風的影響,所以我無法輕易地闡明可能帶來的回報是什麼,我想說,這種回落的好處在於產品範圍和供應鏈的可預測性,相對於真正能夠依靠營收成長來提升業績而言,關稅的降低將大有裨益。

  • I think one of the challenges that many retailers, not just us are facing as it relates to the timing of some of the tariff announcements is literally running out of runway relative to Q4 and having to make decisions on what do you pass on, what do you absorb, what do you not do that maybe you would have considered before.

    我認為,許多零售商(不僅僅是我們)面臨的挑戰之一是,由於一些關稅公告的時機,距離第四季度結束已經非常緊迫,我們不得不決定哪些成本應該轉嫁給消費者,哪些成本應該自行承擔,哪些成本應該放棄,而這些決定以前可能考慮過。

  • And so above all, I mean listen, I think our team has done a an exceptional job of navigating that uncertainty and positioning us to be there for the consumer, not just for Q4, but delivering this performance throughout the year. And honestly, some of what we've had to develop in terms of nimbleness and responsiveness within the supply chain.

    所以最重要的是,我的意思是,我認為我們的團隊在應對這種不確定性方面做得非常出色,讓我們能夠更好地服務消費者,不僅是在第四季度,而且是在全年都保持這樣的業績。說實話,我們在供應鏈的靈活性和反應能力方面,有些東西是我們必須努力培養的。

  • That's going to carry a benefit for us moving forward. I mean, the better we are controlling our inventory and really mastering all of the input costs that come along with the supply chain for a scale player like us gives us a competitive advantage. And so in the classic sense of that which does not kill you makes you stronger.

    這將對我們未來的發展大有裨益。我的意思是,對於像我們這樣的規模企業來說,我們越能控制庫存,越能真正掌握供應鏈中所有投入成本,就越能獲得競爭優勢。所以,從經典意義上講,那些殺不死你的會讓你更強大。

  • Like this is one of those things that we're finding the blessing in it and going to leverage that to our benefit moving forward. But that uncertainty and the short runway leading up to Q4, certainly hamstrings some of the degrees of freedom relative to assortment planning and would only benefit from stability, particularly if that stability comes with a more moderate tariff than what we've been dealing with.

    這就像是我們在這件事中發現了某種幸運,並將利用它來為我們未來的發展做出貢獻。但這種不確定性以及距離第四季度開始的短暫時間,無疑限制了產品組合規劃方面的一些自由度,只有保持穩定才能帶來益處,特別是如果這種穩定伴隨著比我們目前所面臨的更溫和的關稅的話。

  • And so I know I didn't answer your question relative to the dollar amount. It's hard because we never gave you a dollar amount on the front side, but I at least want to convey to you that we're thoughtful around what levers there are for us to pull that can be accretive to the business ultimately when we land at a little more normalized state relative to the tariff environment.

    所以我知道我沒有回答你關於金額的問題。這很難,因為我們一開始從未向您透露具體的金額,但我至少想向您傳達,我們正在認真考慮有哪些措施可以最終為公司帶來收益,尤其是在關稅環境趨於正常化之後。

  • Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

  • So I guess to close that, from a qualitative basis, if the only thing in the tariff landscape that changes next year is that the Indian tariffs go down, obviously, because the other tariffs seem to be a little more set at this point, so you can kind of have an idea of the landscape. But if the Indian tariffs go down, all things being equal, that's going to be a positive for 2027 and beyond.

    所以我想總結一下,從定性角度來看,如果明年關稅格局中唯一變化的是印度關稅下降,那顯然是因為其他關稅目前似乎已經比較穩定了,所以你可以大致了解一下整體格局。但如果印度關稅下降,在其他條件不變的情況下,這對 2027 年及以後將是一個利好消息。

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it should. I mean, I think inherently, quantifying the overall dollar impact, I think it's a little bit harder thing to do. But absolutely, that gives you more opportunity to play offense.

    是的,應該是如此。我的意思是,我認為從本質上講,量化美元的整體影響是一件比較困難的事情。但毫無疑問,這會給你更多進攻的機會。

  • Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Lick - Equity Analyst

  • Awesome. Well, best of luck with the fourth quarter. Hope to catch up with you soon.

    驚人的。祝你第四季一切順利。希望很快能見到你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mauricio Serna, UBS.

    Mauricio Serna,瑞銀集團。

  • Mauricio Serna - Analyst

    Mauricio Serna - Analyst

  • Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a point of clarification on the Q4 guidance. When you said that you are within -- well within the range, does that mean you're at the top end, midpoint? I'm just trying to understand that part of the guidance.

    偉大的。早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。關於第四季業績指引,我需要澄清一點。你說你完全在範圍內,那是不是代表你處於上限還是中點?我只是想弄清楚這部分指導意見。

  • And then also in Q4, thinking about the promotional environment, can you talk about what you've seen so far in terms of like at an industry level, what you've seen in promotions? And do you expect that to maybe year-over-year be more intense, be in line? Just any thoughts on what you're thinking about that the promotional environment would be great.

    另外,在第四季度,考慮到促銷環境,您能否談談您在行業層面上看到的促銷情況?您是否預期這種情況會逐年加劇,或者說會持續下去?你對推廣環境有什麼想法嗎?我覺得這樣的環境會很棒。

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • So we articulated that we were well within the range of our top line guidance, Mauricio. And the reason that we can position ourselves with that statement is that historically, when you think about the fact that the Black Friday weekend is a very small piece of the overall quarter and that from the run rate of the November month-to-date into the holiday selling period even last year as well with some of the assortment gaps that we've had, we see improved run rate historically from November to December as historical and we've seen over the last several years.

    因此,我們明確表示,我們的營收完全在預期範圍內,毛里西奧。我們之所以能夠做出這樣的表態,是因為從歷史數據來看,黑色星期五週末在整個季度中所佔的比例非常小,而且從 11 月份至今到假日銷售期的銷售速度來看,即使去年我們也遇到了一些商品種類上的不足,但從歷史數據來看,11 月到 12 月的銷售速度有所提高,這在過去幾年中一直如此。

  • So it's really -- it's more pertinent to think about the overall guide and understanding the variability in the range is just giving us a range of outcome that gives flexibility for some of the pricing actions, particularly with the EBIT. So without being specific, we feel that our business has momentum. And as we look into December, based on our assortment, we are cautious optimistic about the outcome.

    所以,更重要的是考慮整體指導原則,了解範圍的變化,這能為我們提供一個結果範圍,從而為一些定價措施提供靈活性,特別是息稅前利潤 (EBIT)。所以,雖然不能說得具體,但我們感覺我們的業務發展勢頭良好。展望十二月,根據我們的產品組合,我們對結果持謹慎樂觀態度。

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I think as far as promotion is concerned, I just think in this kind of consumer environment, it's wise for us to be prepared for it. We've seen a little bit more promotional response, I think, with some of the consumer confidence questions that have emerged in November. And I think we're well positioned to be able to deliver on the right value propositions as we get into the real crunch time for our business.

    至於促銷方面,我認為在這種消費環境下,我們做好準備是明智之舉。我認為,針對 11 月出現的一些消費者信心問題,我們已經看到了一些促銷方面的回應。我認為,隨著業務進入真正的關鍵時期,我們已經做好充分準備,能夠提供正確的價值主張。

  • So nothing exceptional that I would quantify at this point, Mauricio. But I think any time you've got a consumer that's dealing with uncertainty, it's wise for us to plan for it and to remain flexible to be responsive so that we can drive top line during a really important time of the year.

    所以目前沒有什麼特別值得量化的,毛里西奧。但我認為,當消費者面臨不確定性時,我們最好提前做好計劃,保持靈活應對,以便在一年中這個非常重要的時期推動營收成長。

  • Mauricio Serna - Analyst

    Mauricio Serna - Analyst

  • Thanks so much and good luck in Q4.

    非常感謝,祝您第四季一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Sanderson, Northcoast Research.

    吉姆·桑德森,北海岸研究公司。

  • Jim Sanderson - Analyst

    Jim Sanderson - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for the questions and congratulations on the great third quarter. I wanted to dig in a little bit more to the fourth quarter guidance, the lower range, the negative 5%. Given the strength you've had in average unit revenues to date, what would it take with respect to average unit volume declines to get to that negative 5% in fourth quarter, both in bridal and in fashion? Just trying to get a sense of where the greatest risk or weakness can emerge for the fourth quarter.

    嘿,謝謝你的提問,也恭喜你第三季取得了優異的成績。我想更深入探討第四季業績預期,也就是下限區間,負 5%。鑑於迄今為止你們的平均單位收入表現強勁,那麼在第四季度,無論是婚紗還是時裝,平均單位銷量需要下降多少才能達到-5%的降幅?我只是想了解一下第四季可能出現的最大風險或弱點在哪裡。

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • I'll take that, Jim. With respect to the low end of our guide, bridal units would be down roughly mid-single digit and -- which would also -- fashion units would also be down similarly. So that's the view of units. We feel that even at the high end of the guide, bridal can be down low single digit in Q4 and achieve our guidance. And so we feel very good about the performance that we're seeing in bridal, particularly in our large brands.

    我接受,吉姆。就我們指南的低端部分而言,婚紗銷量將下降個位數中段,時裝銷量也將出現類似下降。以上就是單位的視圖。我們認為,即使按照指導方針的上限計算,第四季度婚紗銷售額也可能下降到個位數,從而實現我們的指導目標。因此,我們對婚紗市場的表現感到非常滿意,尤其是我們的大品牌。

  • We're seeing a high single-digit comp in bridal, in Kay and Peoples, which is not on the larger brands, but it's doing quite nicely. So I feel good about the positioning of where the guidance is positioned relative to bridal and to fashion.

    我們看到婚紗類產品,例如 Kay 和 Peoples,實現了接近兩位數的同店銷售額增長,雖然它們不是大品牌,但表現相當不錯。因此,我對指導方針在婚紗和時尚領域的定位感到滿意。

  • Jim Sanderson - Analyst

    Jim Sanderson - Analyst

  • All right. So -- but to make sure I understand it, even at the higher end, you would expect units to be down, let's say, low single digits for the bridal category? That's the kind of way to look at it?

    好的。所以——但為了確保我理解正確,即使是高端市場,你也會預期婚紗類產品的銷售下降,比如說,個位數嗎?原來可以這樣看待這個問題?

  • Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

    Joan Hilson - Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer, Chief Operating Officer

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • Jim Sanderson - Analyst

    Jim Sanderson - Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. Thank you. And just a question on the promotional environment. Are you satisfied with your price position, promotional price position relative to peers as you entered into the December holiday season?

    好的。明白了。謝謝。還有一點關於推廣環境的問題。進入12月假期季節之際,您對自身相對於同業的價格定位與促銷價格定位是否滿意?

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it's a great question. We are. But I would also tell you, this is a time period where as people adjust, we also scrape the market and make sure that we're really well positioned. I think the dynamic nature of this environment and just given the, not only what we've talked about relative to consumer, but just the compression that happens between now and the holiday, I think we're focused on staying vigilant.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我們是。但我還要告訴你們,在這個時期,隨著人們做出調整,我們也會仔細檢視市場,確保我們處於非常有利的地位。我認為,鑑於當前環境的動態性,以及我們之前討論過的與消費者相關的問題,再加上從現在到假期之間的時間緊迫,我認為我們應該保持警惕。

  • And particularly when everybody is dealing with some input cost changes, I think that creates a little more focus, certainly on our part to make sure that in these commodity-based categories or in any of the key price point offerings that we really maintain the kind of competitive positioning that makes sense.

    尤其是在大家都在應對投入成本變化的時候,我認為這會讓我們更加關注,確保在這些以商品為基礎的類別或任何關鍵價格點的產品中,我們能夠真正保持合理的競爭地位。

  • And so we've -- I think we balance that really nicely over the course of the year being less promotional, more broadly, focusing promotion where it makes sense, but also not being gratuitous and eroding brand equity in the process. And I think the other benefit of that is it enables us to really focus our value messaging to customers in a stronger way.

    因此,我認為我們在這一年中很好地平衡了這一點,減少了促銷活動,擴大了宣傳範圍,將宣傳重點放在合理的地方,但同時也避免了無謂的宣傳,以免在此過程中損害品牌資產。我認為這樣做的另一個好處是,它使我們能夠以更有力的方式真正集中精力向客戶傳遞我們的價值訊息。

  • We obviously watch the landscape and want to make sure we're maintaining that momentum as we go into such a critical time period, also not losing the progress that we've made relative to some of the discipline around pricing architecture that's paying dividends for us. So that's where we're focused. I think more than not. We feel like we're in the right position. And win or if we have found any categories or subcategories within a brand where we don't like, then we've got the flexibility to also remix and manage it accordingly. So we're delivering the right value.

    我們當然會關注市場動態,並希望確保在進入如此關鍵的時期之際保持這種勢頭,同時也不會失去我們在定價架構方面取得的一些進展,這些進展正在為我們帶來回報。所以這就是我們關注的重點。我覺得很有可能。我們感覺自己處於正確的位置。如果我們發現某個品牌中存在我們不喜歡的類別或子類別,我們也可以靈活地重新組合和管理。所以,我們所提供的價值正是我們所期望的。

  • Jim Sanderson - Analyst

    Jim Sanderson - Analyst

  • All right. Thank you very much.

    好的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to JK Symancyk for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話交給 JK Symancyk,請他作總結發言。

  • J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    J.K. Symancyk - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your interest in our business. We are fully focused on the critical holiday selling period, and we're confident in our strategy and our team's commitment to deliver results. However, you celebrate, I want to wish everyone, our employees, partners, shareholders, all of you holiday season full of joy piece and, of course, love. Look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

    好的。感謝各位今天蒞臨現場,也感謝大家對我們業務的關注。我們正全力以赴迎接關鍵的假日銷售旺季,我們對我們的策略和團隊的敬業精神充滿信心,相信我們能夠取得理想的業績。無論你們如何慶祝,我都想祝福我們所有人,我們的員工、合作夥伴、股東,以及所有在場的各位,節日快樂,平安喜樂,當然,還有愛。期待下個季度與您交流。

  • Goodbye.

    再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,請您斷開線路。