Shyft Group Inc (SHYF) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Shyft Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded at the request of the Shyft Group. And if anyone has any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

早上好，歡迎來到 Shyft Group 的第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次通話是應 Shyft 集團的要求進行錄音的。如果有人有異議，你可以在這個時候斷開連接。

I would now like to introduce Randy Wilson, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury of the Shyft Group. Mr. Wilson, you may proceed.

我現在想介紹 Shyft Group 的投資者關係和財務副總裁 Randy Wilson。威爾遜先生，您可以繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to the Shyft Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Daryl Adams, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Douyard, Chief Financial Officer. Their prepared remarks will be followed by a question-and-answer session.

早上好，歡迎來到 Shyft Group 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是總裁兼首席執行官 Daryl Adams；首席財務官 John Douyard。他們準備好的發言之後將進行問答環節。

For today's call, we've included a presentation deck that's been filed with the SEC, and is also available on our website. Before we start, please turn to Slide 2 of the presentation for our safe harbor statement. Today's conference call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied.

對於今天的電話會議，我們提供了一個已提交給美國證券交易委員會的演示文稿，也可以在我們的網站上找到。在我們開始之前，請轉到演示文稿的幻燈片 2，了解我們的安全港聲明。今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險，可能導致實際結果與明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

All known risks that management believes could materially affect our results are identified in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which are filed with the SEC. We will be discussing non-GAAP information and performance measures we believe, are useful in evaluating the company's operating performance.

管理層認為可能對我們的結果產生重大影響的所有已知風險都在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格中確定。我們將討論我們認為有助於評估公司經營業績的非 GAAP 信息和業績指標。

In addition, the results discussed today will refer to continuing operations unless otherwise noted. During today's call, we will provide a business update before moving on to a more detailed review of the results in our 2023 outlook. We will then open the line for Q&A. Please turn to Slide 3, and I'll turn it over to Daryl Adams.

此外，除非另有說明，否則今天討論的結果將指的是持續經營。在今天的電話會議中，我們將提供業務更新，然後再對我們的 2023 年展望中的結果進行更詳細的審查。然後我們將開通問答熱線。請轉到幻燈片 3，我將把它交給 Daryl Adams。

Thank you, Randy. Good morning, and thank you for joining us, to review our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. This past year presented numerous challenges in our supply chain that impacted our operations, but I'm proud of the team's ability to execute, and close out the year on a high note, with solid year-over-year growth in both sales and adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，蘭迪。早上好，感謝您加入我們，回顧我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績。在過去的一年裡，我們的供應鏈面臨許多影響我們運營的挑戰，但我為團隊的執行能力感到自豪，並以高調結束了這一年，銷售額和調整後的同比增長穩健第四季度的 EBITDA。

We built agility and nimbleness in our approach to operations. Last year, we saw the benefit of this approach, as our team effectively navigated in rapidly evolving operating environment to deliver value to our customers.

我們在運營方法中建立了敏捷性和敏捷性。去年，我們看到了這種方法的好處，因為我們的團隊在快速變化的運營環境中有效地導航，為我們的客戶提供價值。

Turning to Slide 4. I'll update you on our financial summary. The team generated a record $1 billion of sales in the year, up 4%, led by growth across our Specialty Vehicle portfolio. After a challenging first half, chassis supply stabilized, and we saw a significant sequential improvement in profitability, as our teams were able to improve output.

轉到幻燈片 4。我將向您更新我們的財務摘要。該團隊在這一年創造了創紀錄的 10 億美元銷售額，增長 4%，這主要得益於我們特種車輛產品組合的增長。在充滿挑戰的上半年之後，底盤供應穩定下來，我們看到盈利能力環比顯著改善，因為我們的團隊能夠提高產量。

For the full year, profits declined as we made strategic investments in Blue Arc EV and manage through supply chain shortages that impacted operational efficiency. Overall, we achieved adjusted EBITDA of $71 million, which included $27 million of EV-related expenses.

全年，由於我們對 Blue Arc EV 進行了戰略投資，並解決了影響運營效率的供應鏈短缺問題，利潤有所下降。總體而言，我們實現了 7100 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，其中包括 2700 萬美元的電動汽車相關費用。

Turning to Slide 5. I'm excited about our Blue Arc EV program. The team continues to make good progress and remains on track to our original development time line. We continue to receive favorable customer feedback and positive results from our development testing, which gives us confidence that Blue Arc will help lead the evolution of commercial fleets toward zero-emission vehicles in the coming years.

轉到幻燈片 5。我對我們的 Blue Arc EV 計劃感到興奮。該團隊繼續取得良好進展，並保持在我們最初的開發時間表的軌道上。我們繼續從我們的開發測試中收到良好的客戶反饋和積極結果，這使我們相信 Blue Arc 將在未來幾年幫助引領商業車隊向零排放車輛發展。

Let me update you on recent results of the Blue Arc team's efforts, as we prepare to commence production in the second half of 2023. In January, we completed the acquisition of XL Fleet, which enhances our capabilities to accelerate further innovation at Blue Arc with the addition of a highly talented group of engineers and technical experts.

在我們準備在 2023 年下半年開始生產時，讓我向您介紹 Blue Arc 團隊的最新成果。1 月，我們完成了對 XL Fleet 的收購，這增強了我們加速 Blue Arc 進一步創新的能力增加了一批才華橫溢的工程師和技術專家。

We recently announced the selection of Charlotte, Michigan for the initial Blue Arc production site, which includes a planned investment of $12 million for Blue Arc production, and $4 million for other campus enhancements to support future growth. We have received EPA certifications and completed Air Resource Board or ARB testing, with positive results and awaiting final approval.

我們最近宣布選擇密歇根州夏洛特作為最初的 Blue Arc 生產基地，其中包括計劃投資 1200 萬美元用於 Blue Arc 生產，以及 400 萬美元用於其他園區改善以支持未來增長。我們已獲得 EPA 認證並完成了空氣資源委員會或 ARB 測試，結果良好，正在等待最終批准。

We expect the final test results will demonstrate vehicle performance that exceeds the requirements of our customers and differentiates us from our competition. In the coming months, we expect to formally receive ARB certification, qualifying Blue Arc for 0 emission vehicle incentives.

我們預計最終測試結果將展示超出客戶要求的車輛性能，並使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們預計將正式獲得 ARB 認證，使 Blue Arc 有資格獲得零排放車輛獎勵。

We continue to demonstrate sorry -- continued demonstrations of the Blue Arc vehicle with key customers and deliver field testing vehicles to validate performance, expand our national dealer and service network, as we continue to have meaningful discussions with key partners, as we look to support our fleet customers and begin initial pilot and production builds.

我們繼續展示遺憾 - 繼續與主要客戶展示 Blue Arc 車輛並交付現場測試車輛以驗證性能，擴大我們的全國經銷商和服務網絡，因為我們繼續與主要合作夥伴進行有意義的討論，因為我們希望支持我們的車隊客戶，並開始初步試點和生產建設。

While the initial development efforts have focused on Class 3, due to the enthusiasm on our vehicle, we've accelerated our product road map. As a result, we have made significant progress on developing a Class V cab chassis with flexible body options. The Class 5 cab chassis will be on display at the NTEA Work Truck Week in March, and the Blue Arc team looks forward to showcasing this important product with you.

雖然最初的開發工作集中在 Class 3，但由於對我們車輛的熱情，我們加快了產品路線圖。因此，我們在開發具有靈活車身選項的 V 級駕駛室底盤方面取得了重大進展。 Class 5 駕駛室底盤將在 3 月的 NTEA 工作卡車週上展出，Blue Arc 團隊期待與您一起展示這一重要產品。

Please turn to Slide 6. I remain confident, in how we have strategically positioned the company in terms of the end markets, that we serve. Given the dynamic operating environment, I want to provide additional perspective on how we are viewing these markets for each of our business segments.

請轉到幻燈片 6。我仍然對我們如何根據我們所服務的終端市場對公司進行戰略定位充滿信心。鑑於動態的運營環境，我想就我們如何看待我們每個業務部門的這些市場提供額外的視角。

Starting with Fleet Vehicles & Services business, long-term favorable demand trends for North America parcel remain intact, as the secular shift to e-commerce continues, according to industry estimates, domestic parcel volumes will continue to drive demand for our delivery vans. As we sit here today, we are cautious in the near-term outlook, as customer feedback and external announcements have been mixed, given macroeconomic conditions. Which may create uncertainty with fleet operators and influence in near-term capital spending plans.

從車隊車輛和服務業務開始，隨著向電子商務的長期轉變繼續，北美包裹的長期有利需求趨勢保持不變，根據行業估計，國內包裹量將繼續推動對我們的送貨車的需求。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對近期前景持謹慎態度，因為考慮到宏觀經濟狀況，客戶反饋和外部公告喜憂參半。這可能會給車隊運營商帶來不確定性，並影響近期的資本支出計劃。

Over time, our expectations are aligned with broader industry reports, that there is an increased level of long-term demand for last mile delivery vehicles, and we like how we are positioned. Entering 2023, our backlog provides good near-term visibility, we are working through orders to reduce lead times towards more sustainable levels, and we will continue to flex our operations as appropriate. Turning to our Specialty Vehicle business. Our strategy to invest in infrastructure-related businesses continues to pay off, as service body and contract manufacturing are performing well. As new construction projects get underway, contractors and service providers invest in their fleets to meet the demand of these projects. The success of our infrastructure strategy is evidenced by their strong '22 performance and improved backlog position entering 2023.

隨著時間的推移，我們的預期與更廣泛的行業報告保持一致，即對最後一英里送貨車輛的長期需求水平不斷提高，我們喜歡我們的定位。進入 2023 年，我們的積壓訂單提供了良好的近期可見性，我們正在通過訂單努力將交貨時間縮短到更可持續的水平，我們將繼續酌情調整我們的運營。轉向我們的特種車輛業務。我們投資於基礎設施相關業務的戰略繼續取得回報，因為服務機構和合同製造表現良好。隨著新的建設項目的進行，承包商和服務提供商投資於他們的車隊以滿足這些項目的需求。我們的基礎設施戰略的成功體現在他們在 22 年的強勁表現和進入 2023 年的改善積壓情況。

Turning to our motor home chassis business, the retail demand in Class A luxury motor coach space that we serve remains more stable than the broader RV market. But unfortunately, after years of robust retail growth, the broader RV industry slowed in 2022, this softening has resulted in elevated dealer inventory levels of smaller motorized and towable units, which has limited the ability of dealers to stock more expensive Class A luxury motor coaches.

談到我們的房車底盤業務，我們所服務的 A 級豪華大客車空間的零售需求仍然比更廣泛的房車市場更穩定。但不幸的是，經過多年的強勁零售增長後，更廣泛的房車行業在 2022 年放緩，這種疲軟導緻小型機動和可拖車的經銷商庫存水平上升，這限制了經銷商庫存更昂貴的 A 級豪華大客車的能力.

As a result, our motorhome chassis backlog has declined year-over-year. We remain excited about our competitive position, as our market share increased again in 2022 to 33%. And in the greater than 400-horsepower diesel class, up 2 points year-over-year. This progress has been driven by continued investment in innovation and aftermarket parts and services and has helped offset the slower industry market conditions.

因此，我們的房車底盤積壓訂單逐年下降。我們仍然對我們的競爭地位感到興奮，因為我們的市場份額在 2022 年再次增加到 33%。而在大於 400 馬力的柴油級別中，同比增長 2 個百分點。這一進步是由對創新和售後零部件和服務的持續投資推動的，並幫助抵消了行業市場狀況放緩的影響。

Overall, we have industry-leading brands that are positioned to win in the markets we serve. We remain confident in our team's ability to manage through uncertainty, we continue to remain cautious about the dynamic macro environment.

總的來說，我們擁有行業領先的品牌，這些品牌能夠在我們服務的市場中取勝。我們對團隊應對不確定性的能力充滿信心，我們繼續對動態的宏觀環境保持謹慎。

With that, I'll turn it over to John to discuss our financial results beginning on Slide 7.

有了這個，我將把它交給約翰討論我們從幻燈片 7 開始的財務結果。

Thank you, Daryl, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8, and I'll provide an overview of our financial results, for the fourth quarter of 2022. Overall, we are pleased with the improvement we experienced in the second half, as well as the performance to close out the year. .

謝謝你，達里爾，大家早上好。請轉到幻燈片 8，我將概述我們 2022 年第四季度的財務業績。總的來說，我們對下半年的改善以及年底的表現感到滿意. .

Our team delivered strong results in the fourth quarter despite the continuation of supply chain delays, inflation pressures, and labor challenges that impacted us in our industry throughout the year.

儘管全年供應鏈延誤、通脹壓力和勞動力挑戰持續影響著我們行業，但我們的團隊在第四季度取得了強勁的業績。

Sales for the fourth quarter were $302 million, up 9% from the year ago quarter. Net income from continuing operations decreased 13% to $17.8 million or $0.50 per share. The year-over-year comparison was impacted by increased EV spending, operational and efficiency driven by supply chain issues and a favorable onetime tax item in 2021.

第四季度銷售額為 3.02 億美元，比去年同期增長 9%。來自持續經營業務的淨收入下降 13% 至 1780 萬美元或每股 0.50 美元。同比比較受到供應鏈問題推動的電動汽車支出、運營和效率增加以及 2021 年有利的一次性稅收項目的影響。

Turning to our adjusted financial results on Slide 9. In the fourth quarter, we improved adjusted EBITDA to $30.7 million or 10.2% of sales, up from $26.6 million or 9.6% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2021. These results include EV spend of $7.6 million, up $3.6 million from the prior year.

轉到我們在幻燈片 9 上調整後的財務結果。在第四季度，我們將調整後的 EBITDA 提高到 3070 萬美元或占銷售額的 10.2%，高於 2021 年第四季度的 2660 萬美元或占銷售額的 9.6%。這些結果包括 EV 支出760 萬美元，比上年增加 360 萬美元。

Excluding Blue Arc EV spend, adjusted EBITDA was 12.7%, up over 1.5 points year-over-year. Adjusted net income improved to $20.5 million compared to $20.2 million in the year ago quarter, while adjusted EPS rose to $0.58 per share from $0.56 per share last year.

不包括 Blue Arc EV 支出，調整後的 EBITDA 為 12.7%，同比增長超過 1.5 個百分點。調整後的淨收入從去年同期的 2020 萬美元增至 2050 萬美元，而調整後的每股收益從去年的每股 0.56 美元增至每股 0.58 美元。

I'll now walk through our fourth quarter results by operating segment, beginning with Fleet Vehicles & Services on Slide 10. The FVS team delivered strong growth of 17% and adjusted EBITDA of 6%, as more consistent chassis supply enabled improvements in production output. While overall chassis supply was stable in the second half, we continue to face component shortages, which impacted our schedule, drove inefficiencies, and rework in our operations and pressured working capital. FVS achieved sales of $212.9 million, up 17% compared to $182.6 million a year ago, marking solid sequential and year-over-year growth. FVS adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $27.7 million versus $26.2 million a year ago.

我現在將按運營部門介紹我們第四季度的業績，從幻燈片 10 的車隊車輛和服務開始。FVS 團隊實現了 17% 的強勁增長，調整後的 EBITDA 為 6%，因為更穩定的底盤供應使產量得以提高.雖然下半年總體底盤供應穩定，但我們繼續面臨零部件短缺，這影響了我們的進度，導致效率低下，運營返工，並給營運資金帶來壓力。 FVS 實現銷售額 2.129 億美元，與一年前的 1.826 億美元相比增長 17%，實現了穩健的連續和同比增長。本季度經 FVS 調整後的 EBITDA 為 2770 萬美元，而一年前為 2620 萬美元。

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 13% of sales compared to 14.4% in the fourth quarter last year. Please turn to Slide 11 for the Specialty Vehicles segment overview. SV capped off the year with another fantastic quarter. Our service body and contract manufacturing businesses remained strong, and continued to perform well but overall SV sales were impacted by a softening of demand for luxury motorhome chassis.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為銷售額的 13%，而去年第四季度為 14.4%。請轉到幻燈片 11 了解特種車輛部分概述。 SV 以另一個出色的季度結束了這一年。我們的服務機構和合同製造業務保持強勁，並繼續表現良好，但整體 SV 銷售受到豪華房車底盤需求疲軟的影響。

Fourth quarter sales were $93.2 million, a 2% decrease versus the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $15.9 million or 17.1% of sales compared to $10.3 million or 10.8% of sales in the same period last year, reflecting strong operational performance, and the impact of pricing actions implemented earlier in the year to recover inflationary costs.

第四季度銷售額為 9320 萬美元，比上年下降 2%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1,590 萬美元，佔銷售額的 17.1%，而去年同期為 1,030 萬美元，佔銷售額的 10.8%，反映出強勁的運營業績，以及今年早些時候為收回通貨膨脹成本而實施的定價行動的影響。

Please turn to Slide 12 for our 2023 outlook. As we look forward into 2023, we remain positive on the company's ability to perform, but want to be cautious given the potential impact of near-term macroeconomic headwinds across industries. That said, on the top line, we expect to exceed 2022's record year with continued growth in delivery and service body offsetting softness in luxury motorhome.

請轉到幻燈片 12 了解我們的 2023 年展望。展望 2023 年，我們對公司的業績仍然持樂觀態度，但鑑於近期宏觀經濟逆風對各行業的潛在影響，我們希望保持謹慎。也就是說，最重要的是，我們預計 2022 年將超過創紀錄的一年，交付和服務機構的持續增長抵消了豪華房車的疲軟。

We expect to see strategic growth initiatives pay off with an exciting SV geographic expansion announcement in the coming weeks, as well as the first revenue from Blue Arc later in the year as we go into production. From a profitability perspective we expect strong near term -- we expect strong year-over-year growth despite incurring remaining Class 3 R&D investment and initial start-up costs to support the production launch of our Blue Arc vehicle as well as the incremental expenses driven by the XL Fleet acquisition.

我們希望看到戰略增長計劃在未來幾週內通過令人興奮的 SV 地理擴張公告獲得回報，以及在今年晚些時候我們投入生產時從 Blue Arc 獲得第一筆收入。從盈利能力的角度來看，我們預計短期內會有強勁的增長——儘管產生了剩餘的 3 類研發投資和初始啟動成本以支持我們的 Blue Arc 車輛的生產啟動以及驅動的增量費用，但我們預計仍將實現強勁的同比增長由 XL 艦隊收購。

Given these underlying drivers, our outlook for 2023 is as follows: sales to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion representing 7% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA of $70 million to $100 million, representing 20% growth at the midpoint, adjusted EPS of $0.97 per share to $1.59 per share, which includes an effective tax rate of approximately 25% and shares outstanding of approximately $30 million.

鑑於這些潛在驅動因素，我們對 2023 年的展望如下：銷售額將在 10 億美元至 12 億美元之間，中點同比增長 7%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 7000 萬美元至 1 億美元，中點增長率為 20%，調整後的每股收益為 0.97 美元至每股 1.59 美元，其中包括約 25% 的有效稅率和約 3000 萬美元的已發行股票。

Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $35 million, and free cash flow conversion as a percentage of net income is expected to be greater than 100%, as we work down working capital.

資本支出預計約為 3500 萬美元，隨著我們減少營運資金，自由現金流轉換占淨收入的百分比預計將超過 100%。

Please turn to the capital allocation update on Slide 13. We remain disciplined in our approach to capital allocation with a focus on utilizing internally generated cash to fund our operations and growth initiatives. In the fourth quarter, we generated $19 million in free cash flow. We maintain a robust capital structure with net leverage ratio of just 0.93x adjusted EBITDA, at the end of the year.

請轉到幻燈片 13 上的資本配置更新。我們在資本配置方法上保持紀律，重點是利用內部產生的現金為我們的運營和增長計劃提供資金。第四季度，我們產生了 1900 萬美元的自由現金流。我們保持穩健的資本結構，截至年底，淨槓桿率僅為調整後 EBITDA 的 0.93 倍。

We also maintained a line of credit of $400 million, giving us strong access to capital to invest in growth. As we have previously noted, our recent investment focus has been on attractive organic growth opportunities, including Blue Arc EV solutions. In addition, we continue to evaluate M&A opportunities and maintain an active funnel and a disciplined M&A evaluation process.

我們還保持了 4 億美元的信貸額度，使我們能夠獲得強大的資本來投資於增長。正如我們之前所指出的，我們最近的投資重點是有吸引力的有機增長機會，包括 Blue Arc EV 解決方案。此外，我們繼續評估併購機會並保持活躍的渠道和嚴格的併購評估流程。

We remain focused on pursuing efficient capital -- return of capital to our shareholders including a consistent dividend payment and assessing share repurchases as appropriate.

我們仍然專注於追求高效的資本——向我們的股東返還資本，包括持續的股息支付和評估適當的股票回購。

In conclusion, we are committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet, as a foundation to support strategic investments in our future, while taking a disciplined approach to efficiently return cash to our shareholders.

總之，我們致力於維持穩健的資產負債表，以此作為支持未來戰略投資的基礎，同時採取紀律嚴明的方式有效地向股東返還現金。

Now I'll turn the call back to Daryl for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回 Daryl 以作結束語。

Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 14. At the Shyft Group, we have created a compelling industrial growth company. Our priorities start with a culture of customer-focused innovation. We win by delivering market-leading solutions, that address our customers' needs. Operational excellence drives efficiency in our operations, quality in our products and differentiates us from our competition.

謝謝你，約翰。請轉到幻燈片 14。在 Shyft Group，我們創建了一家引人注目的工業成長型公司。我們的優先事項始於以客戶為中心的創新文化。我們通過提供滿足客戶需求的市場領先解決方案來取勝。卓越運營提高了我們的運營效率和產品質量，並使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。

Lastly, our financial strength provides us with the flexibility to invest in long-term growth and strive to deliver returns ahead of our peers. Looking ahead, we are excited about our growth prospects, especially with the beginning of the Blue Arc production later this year with the right people and the right processes in place, to execute on our strategy and deliver for our customers and shareholders.

最後，我們的財務實力為我們提供了投資於長期增長的靈活性，並力爭領先於同行提供回報。展望未來，我們對我們的增長前景感到興奮，特別是今年晚些時候 Blue Arc 的生產開始，合適的人員和合適的流程到位，以執行我們的戰略並為我們的客戶和股東提供服務。

With that, Operator, we are now ready for the Q&A portion of the call.

有了這個，接線員，我們現在準備好進行電話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question comes from Greg Lewis of BTIG. .

我們的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Greg Lewis。 .

My first question was around kind of margin progression. And congratulations on the nice sequential gross margin increase in Q4. Kind of -- as we look at -- as we kind of think about your adjusted EBITDA range guidance for next -- for this year, how should we be maybe thinking about gross margins sequentially going forward? And is there any kind of impact as, I guess, we start delivering Blue Arc later this year?

我的第一個問題是關於保證金進展的。並祝賀第四季度毛利率連續增長。有點 - 正如我們所看到的那樣 - 當我們考慮你調整後的 EBITDA 範圍指導時 - 今年，我們應該如何考慮毛利率的順序？我猜，我們今年晚些時候開始交付 Blue Arc，是否有任何影響？

Yes, Greg, thanks for the question. I think as we look at the overall operating environment, we're expecting something that resembles the second half of next year. And so we're not expecting, any of the operational challenges, some of the inflation and efficiencies that exist to perfectly write themselves as we begin the year here. .

是的，格雷格，謝謝你的提問。我認為，當我們審視整體運營環境時，我們預計會出現類似於明年下半年的情況。因此，我們並不期望任何運營挑戰、一些通貨膨脹和效率會在我們開始新的一年時完美地自我書寫。 .

And so the -- we are expecting to see gross margin improvement. You'll see year-over-year, we do have some margin expansion from an EBITDA perspective. But I think the operating environment is going to continue to remain challenging, as we work through the first half of the year. I think that said, that is where our teams are focused in terms of driving and fixing those inefficiencies and getting better flow, through the supply base. And so we will see progression throughout the year, but it's -- we're not taking sort of an aggressive position here in the guidance on margin expansion.

因此——我們預計毛利率會有所改善。你會看到年復一年，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，我們確實有一些利潤率增長。但我認為，隨著我們在今年上半年的工作，經營環境將繼續充滿挑戰。我認為，這就是我們的團隊關注的重點，通過供應基地推動和解決這些低效率問題並獲得更好的流動。因此，我們將在全年看到進展，但它是——我們在利潤率擴張的指導中並沒有採取某種激進的立場。

Okay. Great. And then, yes, I mean, I guess, rolling out a classified Blue Arc was always part of the plan, since you embarked on the move into EVs. I guess, as we think about that, and I guess, the rollout of that given the existing footprint in Michigan, where that's where we're -- I believe we're building the Blue Arcs over the next few years, how should we think about that now, that we have the classified vehicle that I guess we plan on rolling out over the next couple of years or a year and a half.

好的。偉大的。然後，是的，我的意思是，我猜，推出機密的 Blue Arc 一直是計劃的一部分，因為你開始轉向電動汽車。我想，當我們考慮這個問題時，我想，考慮到密歇根州現有的足跡，這就是我們所在的地方——我相信我們將在未來幾年內建設藍弧，我們應該如何現在想一想，我們擁有機密車輛，我想我們計劃在未來幾年或一年半內推出。

Greg, you broke up a little bit. This is Daryl. The vehicle that will be shown at NTEA was not part of the original plan. Partly original plan was a Class 3, and classified walk-in van. This is something different. It's a cab chassis. So we haven't announced any type of production timing on that. It's still early in the development phase, but we're thinking it's going to -- I don't want to say steal the show, but be pretty exciting on NTEA, once people see it in the opportunities that it would have for municipalities and other, I would say, city type trucks that might need it because it does have a flexible options on the back, whether it's a flatbed, a box truck or even some type of a dump for landscape. And so this part wasn't in the original plan, but we're excited about the enthusiasm we're receiving from customers about it. .

格雷格，你有點分手了。這是達里爾。將在 NTEA 上展示的車輛不在原計劃之內。部分原始計劃是 3 級分類步入式貨車。這是不同的東西。這是駕駛室底盤。所以我們還沒有宣布任何類型的生產時間。它仍處於開發階段的早期階段，但我們認為它會——我不想說搶風頭，但一旦人們看到它為市政當局和其他，我會說，城市型卡車可能需要它，因為它的背面確實有靈活的選擇，無論是平板車、箱式卡車，還是某種類型的景觀垃圾場。所以這部分不在最初的計劃中，但我們對客戶對此的熱情感到興奮。 .

The next question comes from Felix Boeschen of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Felix Boeschen。

Good morning, everybody. .

大家早上好。 .

Good morning, Felix.

早上好，菲利克斯。

I just want to clear up a couple of things. So you reiterated a 2H production start for Blue Arc. And, I just want to be crystal clear, and maybe I missed this. But is the associated EV revenue included in the guidance? And is it included in the backlog today?

我只想澄清幾件事。所以你重申了 Blue Arc 的 2H 生產開始。而且，我只想說清楚，也許我錯過了這一點。但相關的電動汽車收入是否包含在指南中？它是否包含在今天的積壓工作中？

Just in terms of the backlog, it is not included in the backlog today. I think in terms of the guidance, we're expecting 200, 250 units, which is consistent with what we've previously talked about, and that is in the sales number.

僅就積壓而言，不計入今日積壓。我認為就指導而言，我們預計 200、250 台，這與我們之前談到的一致，這在銷售數字中。

Okay. And then what I'm trying to, I guess, better understand, John, is sort of the implied R&D costs for 2023, can you maybe just walk us through how you're thinking about that bucket between the XL Fleet, between the Class 3, and now it sounds like there might be some incremental R&D associated with the Class 5. Just trying to understand the buckets here, John.

好的。然後我想，我想更好地理解，約翰，某種程度上是 2023 年的隱含研發成本，你能不能給我們介紹一下你是如何考慮 XL 艦隊和 Class 之間的那個桶的？ 3，現在聽起來可能有一些與 5 級相關的增量研發。只是想了解這裡的桶，約翰。

Yes. So I think, if you go back in what we previously talked about was $30 million of spending last year, something in the $10 million to $15 million range this year. I would say, we're trending towards the higher end of that $15 million, as well as having some carryover from 2022 just based on the fact that we ended up spending about $27 million. And so that puts you in the $18 million range. .

是的。所以我認為，如果你回顧一下我們之前談到的，去年的支出是 3000 萬美元，今年的支出在 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元之間。我想說的是，我們正朝著這 1500 萬美元的較高端發展，並且基於我們最終花費了大約 2700 萬美元這一事實，從 2022 年開始有一些結轉。因此，這使您處於 1800 萬美元的範圍內。 .

And then as we noted in the deck, you've got $8 million of incremental spending from the XL Fleet acquisition that is really cost that we contemplated adding throughout '23 and into '24. And so it's more of an acceleration of cost, but we saw that as a great opportunity for us to bring in a talented group of people to really stabilize that business as we like the opportunity, as we've talked about, we view that as a very transformational project for us.

然後正如我們在甲板上指出的那樣，您從 XL Fleet 收購中獲得了 800 萬美元的增量支出，這確實是我們考慮在整個 23 年和 24 年增加的成本。因此，這更像是成本的加速增長，但我們認為這是一個很好的機會，可以讓我們引進一群有才華的人來真正穩定該業務，因為我們喜歡這個機會，正如我們所討論的那樣，我們認為這是對我們來說是一個非常具有變革性的項目。

So I think if you look at the overall impact of EV on us this year, it's in that $25 million to $26 million range, with the biggest sort of variance being the addition of XL Fleet versus what we previously talked about.

所以我認為，如果你看看今年 EV 對我們的總體影響，它在 2500 萬到 2600 萬美元之間，最大的差異是 XL Fleet 的增加與我們之前談到的相比。

Okay. And then I think in the prepared remarks, you mentioned some start-up costs associated with the ramp of the production, and I know at the EV Day last year, we had talked about being sort of around breakeven all in. Can you update us on that? Would it be safe to assume the $8 million XL is an incremental hit to the breakeven, I'm just trying to kind of understand how you're thinking about that earnings potential, relative to what was originally stated last year.

好的。然後我想在準備好的評論中，你提到了一些與產量增加相關的啟動成本，我知道在去年的 EV 日，我們談到了在某種程度上實現盈虧平衡。你能告訴我們最新情況嗎在那？假設 800 萬美元的 XL 是對盈虧平衡的增量打擊是否安全，我只是想了解你是如何考慮這種盈利潛力的，相對於去年最初所說的。

Yes. I mean, I think when you look at that approximately breakeven number. I think, again, we're probably at the higher end of that R&D range versus what we originally contemplated. You've got some carryover investment again, the $3 million, which isn't incremental to the program, but is incremental to 2023 and then you have the XL Fleet cost, on top of that. And so that's how I would bridge that. I think to -- we had always contemplated start-up costs probably coming in a little bit higher than we expected, as well as there is some, call it, incremental R&D costs associated with some of the Class 5 activity that Daryl talked about, but the big drivers are XL Fleet and then just the development being closer to the higher end of the range.

是的。我的意思是，我認為當你看到那個大約盈虧平衡的數字時。我再次認為，與我們最初設想的相比，我們可能處於研發範圍的高端。你又得到了一些結轉投資，300 萬美元，這不是該計劃的增量，而是到 2023 年的增量，然後你還有 XL 艦隊成本，最重要的是。這就是我要彌合的方式。我認為——我們一直在考慮啟動成本可能會比我們預期的要高一點，還有一些，稱之為增量研發成本，與 Daryl 談到的一些第 5 類活動相關，但是最大的驅動力是 XL Fleet，然後是更接近高端的開發。

Okay. Got it. And then can you just talk about the strategic rationale behind the XL Fleet deal? I'm just trying to understand sort of how it fits in, it sounds like a bit of an acceleration, but I'm curious if there's any capabilities that you brought in-house that you didn't have before? Just kind of trying to understand that deal a little bit better.

好的。知道了。然後你能談談 XL Fleet 交易背後的戰略依據嗎？我只是想了解它是如何適應的，這聽起來有點加速，但我很好奇你是否有任何以前沒有的內部能力？只是想更好地理解這筆交易。

Yes. Maybe I'll start Felix, Daryl can jump in. Again, I think we looked at this as a talented group of engineers both on the electrical side, on the battery side, on the telematics and software side, that we were building internally and also using some third parties to support. And so this was really an opportunistic play for us to accelerate talent into the organization that will help us not only get through sort of the last development phase here, but also, again, provide that stable information for us as we move forward. .

是的。也許我會啟動 Felix，Daryl 可以加入。再次，我認為我們將其視為電氣方面、電池方面、遠程信息處理和軟件方面的才華橫溢的工程師團隊，我們正在內部構建，還使用一些第三方來支持。因此，這對我們來說真的是一個機會主義的遊戲，可以加速人才進入組織，這不僅可以幫助我們度過這裡的最後一個發展階段，還可以在我們前進的過程中再次為我們提供穩定的信息。 .

Yes, Felix, good question. The only thing I would add to, what John mentioned is bringing in engineers that aren't familiar with EV, which they're hard to find, right? Because there's -- it's new technology that everybody is bringing on to grab people, engineers that have that talent already is going to help us leapfrog others in the market, in our opinion, and we thought it was a great opportunity.

是的，菲利克斯，問得好。我唯一要補充的是，John 提到的是引進不熟悉 EV 的工程師，他們很難找到，對吧？因為有——在我們看來，這是每個人都在利用新技術來吸引人才，已經擁有這種才能的工程師將幫助我們在市場上超越其他人，我們認為這是一個很好的機會。

And I'll tell you what, so far, it's absolutely amazing the progress they've made in and how they've helped. So we're really excited about where it's going to take us throughout the year. And like John said, it's accelerated, but we thought the cost benefit was worth it and instead of trying to bring in new people. So it's -- in our opinion, is paying off right now, and we're excited about it.

我會告訴你，到目前為止，他們所取得的進步以及他們提供的幫助絕對令人驚嘆。因此，我們對全年將帶我們去往何處感到非常興奮。就像約翰說的那樣，它正在加速，但我們認為成本效益是值得的，而不是試圖引進新人。所以它 - 在我們看來，現在正在得到回報，我們對此感到興奮。

Okay. Got it. And then just my last one, if I could, and maybe this is better for John, but I appreciate the capital allocation update. I think you noted that your free cash flow conversion as a percent of net income should be higher than 100% this year. I imagine the working capital plays into that. But I'm just curious in the guide, it doesn't seem like you're accounting for necessarily any decreases in share counts, or even interest expense for that matter? So I'm just curious, is there anything baked in from a capital allocation perspective in the guide? And how would you think about deploying that incremental free cash flow?

好的。知道了。然後是我的最後一個，如果可以的話，也許這對約翰來說更好，但我很欣賞資本配置更新。我想你注意到今年你的自由現金流轉換占淨收入的百分比應該高於 100%。我想營運資金會發揮作用。但我只是對指南感到好奇，你似乎並沒有考慮到任何股份數量的減少，甚至是利息支出？所以我很好奇，指南中是否有從資本配置角度考慮的內容？您如何考慮部署這種增量自由現金流？

Yes. No, I think it's a good question. I think, certainly, we have not contemplated any repurchase activity and the share count that we put forward. But given the flexibility we have, we've got $242 million under authorization at this point, which we'll continue to remain flexible on that. I think, from an interest expense standpoint or from a debt standpoint in general, we are levered under return.

是的。不，我認為這是個好問題。我認為，當然，我們沒有考慮任何回購活動和我們提出的股份數量。但考慮到我們的靈活性，我們目前已獲得 2.42 億美元的授權，我們將繼續保持靈活性。我認為，從利息支出的角度或一般的債務角度來看，我們在回報率下處於槓桿狀態。

We're obviously very comfortable with being in that range. And so we'll balance sort of debt pay down with other deployment options. I think the interest expense, in general, I think, is a bit elevated versus where we ended 2022, just based on really interest rate changes. So -- but again, we've got flexibility, and we've got a strong balance sheet to be able to deploy it appropriately.

我們顯然對處於該範圍內感到非常滿意。因此，我們將平衡債務償還與其他部署選項。我認為，總的來說，我認為利息支出與我們 2022 年底的水平相比有點高，只是基於真正的利率變化。所以 - 但同樣，我們有靈活性，我們有強大的資產負債表，能夠適當地部署它。

The next question comes from Steve Dyer of Craig-Hallum.

下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Steve Dyer。

You had talked as it relates to the backlog, you've sort of talked about how you anticipated that sort of coming back down to more normalized levels, maybe a couple of quarters versus a year plus sort of near term, are you seeing any change? Are you seeing any sort of move-outs later into the backlog or cancellations or would you say sort of the burn down right now, is just less order intake for 4 or 5 quarters from now?

你談到了與積壓有關的問題，你已經談到了你如何預期這種情況會回到更正常的水平，可能是幾個季度而不是一年加上近期，你看到任何變化嗎？您是否在稍後看到任何類型的搬遷到積壓或取消，或者您會說現在有點燒毀，只是從現在開始的 4 或 5 個季度的訂單量減少？

Yes. I think -- I mean, the biggest impact, I would say, is the less order intake with also when chassis supply freed up in the second half of the year, obviously, allowing us to produce at an accelerated rate. And so I'd say those are the 2 main drivers. I think as Daryl noted in his comments, there is a ton of uncertainty out there in the environment.

是的。我認為 - 我的意思是，我想說的最大影響是訂單量減少，同時底盤供應在下半年釋放，顯然，這使我們能夠以更快的速度生產。所以我想說這些是兩個主要驅動因素。我認為正如 Daryl 在他的評論中指出的那樣，環境中存在大量不確定性。

We're definitely having this -- I would say, we're having favorable discussions with customers about opportunities from an ordering perspective, and there's some really attractive sort of fleet buys out there. And then we're having conversations with dealers or dealers and customers as well about potentially delaying or moving on orders just given some of the either floor plan or interest rate dynamics that are out there in the marketplace.

我們肯定有這個 - 我會說，我們正在與客戶就訂購的角度進行有利的討論，並且那裡有一些非常有吸引力的機隊購買。然後，我們正在與經銷商或經銷商和客戶進行對話，討論可能會延遲或轉移訂單，只是考慮到市場上存在的一些平面圖或利率動態。

And so, as we look at that collectively, we do remain optimistic certainly to the upside of where we are from a midpoint perspective, but we do want to be cautious just because there is so much uncertainty out there in the environment.

因此，當我們集體看待這一點時，我們確實對中點觀點的上行保持樂觀，但我們確實希望保持謹慎，因為環境中存在太多不確定性。

Yes. So I guess even looking when you normalize this year for XL Fleet those costs and sort of the incremental Blue Arc costs. The guidance, to my math, sort of implies that the core business is maybe even a little softer in 2023 than it was in the second half of '22. So I mean is that just sort of conservatism on your part, given all the moving parts? Or are you seeing something in specific sort of customer conversations recently that gives you pause?

是的。因此，我想即使是在今年為 XL Fleet 標準化這些成本和某種增量的 Blue Arc 成本時，我想也是如此。根據我的計算，該指導有點暗示核心業務在 2023 年甚至可能比 22 年下半年更疲軟。所以我的意思是，考慮到所有移動部件，這只是您的保守主義嗎？還是您最近在特定類型的客戶對話中看到了讓您停頓的內容？

I would say the one piece that is softer than what we would have expected in the fourth quarter is on the motorhome side of the business. And then I would say on the rest of the portfolio, we remain particularly on the fleet side, we remain sort of balanced as we monitor the market.

我想說的是，比我們在第四季度預期的要軟的一塊是房車業務。然後我會說在投資組合的其餘部分，我們仍然特別是在機隊方面，我們在監控市場時保持平衡。

Like we talked about in the prepared remarks, the service body business, as well as contract manufacturing continues to be fantastic growth for us. And so we do feel like we're balanced. But again, cautious as we look at all the -- call it, noise that's out there in the system right now.

就像我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，服務機構業務以及合同製造對我們來說仍然是驚人的增長。所以我們確實覺得我們很平衡。但同樣，當我們審視所有 - 稱其為系統中目前存在的噪音時，請再次保持謹慎。

Yes. Got it. I guess, along those lines, we've been talking about supply chain disruption for so long. Are we kind of to the point where, I guess, near term maybe demand uncertainty is a little bit more of the challenge right now, or supply chain still less than ideal?

是的。知道了。我想，沿著這些思路，我們一直在談論供應鏈中斷。我想，我們是否已經到了這樣的地步，短期內需求的不確定性可能是目前的挑戰，或者供應鏈仍然不理想？

I mean I think it's a little bit of both. But I think they're -- 12 months ago, I don't think we would have been talking about sort of demand problems. So I think some of it just might be some of the headlines and those types of things that are out there that people are in customers and the industry is reacting to in general.

我的意思是我認為兩者都有一點。但我認為他們 - 12 個月前，我認為我們不會討論某種需求問題。所以我認為其中一些可能只是一些頭條新聞和人們在客戶中的那些類型的東西，整個行業正在對此做出反應。

But I'd say demand is maybe a little bit more prevalent than it was a year ago. But again, we've always said that we'd like being -- we like the markets that we're playing in. We know growth is in a straight line. But we think over the long term, we're positioned very well for -- to meet the needs of our customers.

但我想說需求可能比一年前更為普遍。但同樣，我們總是說我們希望成為——我們喜歡我們正在參與的市場。我們知道增長是直線的。但我們認為，從長遠來看，我們處於非常有利的位置——滿足客戶的需求。

The next question comes from Mike Shlisky of D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Mike Shlisky。戴維森。

I want to start off with a question on FVS. Maybe I wanted to hone in on to details of your comments and outlook there. I guess, first is on the pricing. Do you anticipate having a positive price year-over-year in 2023? And then secondly, I mean, -- it feels to me like FVS was already behind on its replacement and growth schedule before the pandemic even started, and of course, only got more and more dire during the pandemic itself. And given what happened in '22, I don't think we've caught up on what fleets are looking to put on the road.

我想從一個關於 FVS 的問題開始。也許我想深入了解您在那裡的評論和前景的細節。我想，首先是定價。您預計 2023 年的價格會同比上漲嗎？其次，我的意思是，在我看來，FVS 在大流行開始之前就已經落後於其更換和增長計劃，當然，在大流行期間只會變得越來越可怕。考慮到 22 年發生的事情，我認為我們還沒有了解車隊希望上路的情況。

So I'm curious, if this is not the strongest year here in '23, is it just because the fleets are kind of pushing out the inevitable and there will be all these new trucks on the road eventually, if not this year then following '24.

所以我很好奇，如果這不是 23 年最強勁的一年，是否僅僅是因為車隊有點推出不可避免的事情，最終會有所有這些新卡車上路，如果不是今年，那麼接下來'24。

Yes, Mike, I think you answered your question. And I think we had it in prepared remarks, right, we're still -- like where we're at positioned. We just think it's the macroeconomic issues, to your point, and we have not caught up on the vehicles, but I think it's just maybe -- I don't want to say a pause, but there's a slip out.

是的，邁克，我想你回答了你的問題。而且我認為我們在準備好的評論中已經有了它，對，我們仍然 - 就像我們所處的位置一樣。我們只是認為這是宏觀經濟問題，就你的觀點而言，我們還沒有趕上這些車輛，但我認為這可能 - 我不想說暫停，但有一個失誤。

We still see the demands. We see parcel packages moving in the right direction. I think, it's just being cautious on the macroeconomic issues that everyone was talking about, FedEx, UPS. They all had their earnings out and we're reading those and talking with themselves. So unless something changes, I think you're right, it's going to be pushed out a little bit, but it's still a great business to be in.

我們仍然看到需求。我們看到包裹正朝著正確的方向發展。我認為，這只是對每個人都在談論的宏觀經濟問題持謹慎態度，FedEx、UPS。他們都拿出了收入，我們正在閱讀這些收入並與自己交談。所以除非有什麼改變，我認為你是對的，它會被推遲一點，但它仍然是一個很好的行業。

And I think just on the price comment, Mike, I think, sorry go ahead.

我想就價格評論而言，邁克，我想，對不起，請繼續。

Yes. On the price question, please.

是的。關於價格問題，請。

Yes, just on price. I mean our expectation right now is we've taken solid pricing, over the last 18 months as inflation came through. Our expectations will be positive from a pricing standpoint in '23.

是的，只是價格。我的意思是，我們現在的預期是，在過去 18 個月裡，隨著通貨膨脹的到來，我們已經採取了穩定的定價。從 23 年的定價角度來看，我們的期望是積極的。

Okay. Great. Moving on to the other kinds of EVs. We saw some announcements that there's going to be a -- and EV Sprinters are coming out at some point in 2023, that's a Class 2, actually nothing to do with the Blue Arc main products there, but curious whether you're ready from an upfit perspective, when that comes to your facilities, do you have the design and people in place to start doing the EV sprinter going forward?

好的。偉大的。轉向其他類型的電動汽車。我們看到一些公告稱，EV Sprinters 將在 2023 年的某個時候推出，這是 2 級，實際上與那裡的 Blue Arc 主要產品無關，但很好奇你是否準備好從upfit 的角度來看，當涉及到您的設施時，您是否有適當的設計和人員來開始進行 EV 短跑比賽？

Yes, Mike, I think like any EV vehicle, we're always working with our customers, whether it's in this case, Mercedes, whether it's Stellantis, right, or Ford. We're working with all of them on packages. We like the upfit business. And if our customers, whether it's direct to them or through a fleet management company, and we are prepared to build the vehicles and obviously, right, quote those orders and try to win the business. So yes, we're -- like the transit, e-transit and like the (inaudible) auto Stellantis, this is just another opportunity to gain some more upfit business.

是的，邁克，我認為就像任何電動汽車一樣，我們一直在與我們的客戶合作，無論是在這種情況下，梅賽德斯，還是 Stellantis，對，還是福特。我們正在與他們所有人合作開發軟件包。我們喜歡裝修業務。如果我們的客戶，無論是直接面向他們還是通過車隊管理公司，我們都準備好製造車輛，顯然，正確地，引用這些訂單並試圖贏得業務。所以是的，我們是 - 就像交通、電子交通和（聽不清）汽車 Stellantis，這只是獲得更多業務的另一個機會。

Okay. Got it. Can you just maybe touch on some sort of detail on the guidance here, John, on the cadence, do you feel well supply in chassis for the first quarter? And just know about some challenges in the first quarter on margins, just stating of how things might play out at the start of the year here, would be appreciated.

好的。知道了。約翰，你能不能在這裡談談指導的一些細節，你覺得第一季度的底盤供應情況好嗎？並且只知道第一季度在利潤率方面的一些挑戰，只是說明今年年初事情可能會如何發展，我們將不勝感激。

Yes. I think as you know, Q1 is typically seasonally low for us just given some of the model year changes from the chassis supply perspective, we would expect Q1 is probably in the low to mid-single-digit range from a margin perspective before ramping up in midyear like we typically do. So obviously we're not guiding quarters here, but it's probably something like 30% in the first half, as you look at the full year guide.

是的。正如你所知，我認為第一季度對我們來說通常是季節性低的，只是從底盤供應的角度考慮了一些車型年份的變化，我們預計第一季度從利潤率的角度來看可能處於低至中個位數範圍內，然後才會上升像我們通常做的那樣在年中。所以很明顯我們在這裡沒有指導季度，但當你看全年指南時，上半年可能大約是 30%。

Got it. I appreciate the color. .

知道了。我很欣賞這種顏色。 .

The next question comes from Matt Koranda of ROTH MKM. .

下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Matt Koranda。 .

So I just want to make sure I understand the EBITDA bridge embedded in the guidance from -- versus last year. So take the $71 million from $22 million, roughly $15 million unwinds from Blue Arc spend, but then you got $8 million of incremental spend from XL, the $7 million to $8 million would be embedded in the guidance, excluding any benefit from the segment growth.

所以我只是想確保我理解嵌入在指南中的 EBITDA 橋樑 - 與去年相比。因此，從 2200 萬美元中減去 7100 萬美元，大約 1500 萬美元來自 Blue Arc 支出，但隨後你從 XL 獲得了 800 萬美元的增量支出，這 700 萬至 800 萬美元將包含在指導中，不包括細分市場增長帶來的任何好處.

So maybe $7 million of sort of segment growth contribution embedded in the guidance. Just curious, is SV adding to growth? Or is that a headwind? I just want to understand the moving pieces in the segment underneath the overall guidance.

因此，指導中可能包含 700 萬美元的細分市場增長貢獻。只是好奇，SV 是否有助於增長？或者這是逆風？我只想了解總體指導下該部分中的移動部分。

I think, as you look at the SV business, sorry, we do expect to see positive growth in that business year-over-year. I think you obviously do have some motorhome headwinds that we talked about that need to be offset, but the opportunities that we have from a service body and contract manufacturing perspective will offset those. So probably growing at a slower pace operationally, but still growth year-over-year.

我認為，當你看 SV 業務時，抱歉，我們確實希望看到該業務同比增長。我認為你顯然確實有一些我們談到的需要抵消的房車逆風，但我們從服務機構和合同製造的角度來看的機會將抵消這些。因此，在運營方面可能會以較慢的速度增長，但仍會同比增長。

Okay. All right. That makes sense. And then just digging into the FVS backlog a bit more. So obviously, you guys have talked about sort of reticence among fleet customers, maybe a little bit of caution around the macro. But one thing that we found in speaking with some dealers is that chassis order books seem like they're closed this year. And so how much is the implied order flow or the weakness there is just given that fleets can't really get chassis for the rest of this year and the -- they just essentially be indicating for new vehicles, kind of early to middle of next year or if they're going to put an order in. So that longer lead time just throttles back their ordering behavior versus like macro reticence. I'm just curious if you guys have any sense for that.

好的。好的。這就說得通了。然後再深入研究 FVS 積壓工作。很明顯，你們談到了車隊客戶的某種沉默，也許對宏觀有一點謹慎。但我們在與一些經銷商交談時發現的一件事是，底盤訂單似乎今年已經關閉。因此，鑑於車隊在今年餘下時間無法真正獲得底盤，因此隱含的訂單流量或弱點有多少——它們基本上只是在指示新車，有點像明年的早期到中期一年或者他們是否要下訂單。因此，與宏觀沉默相比，更長的交貨時間只會抑制他們的訂購行為。我只是很好奇你們是否對此有任何感覺。

Yes. I mean, I think much of -- we're specifically hearing the same thing. I think, as you look at some of the Class 2 vehicles, I think the -- as the OEMs allocate those vehicles historically, the commercial capacity has been absorbed, pretty quickly. And so there's certainly that aspect, I'm not sure we're hearing anything .

是的。我的意思是，我想很多——我們特別聽到了同樣的事情。我認為，當你看一些 2 類車輛時，我認為——隨著原始設備製造商在歷史上分配這些車輛，商業能力很快就被吸收了。所以肯定有那個方面，我不確定我們聽到了什麼。

Yes, I would agree with John, Matt. I think it's more in a Class 2 because what we've heard is Ford is now allocating quarterly. So that might be some of the adjustment that people are trying to understand and make, in the past, it would let you book for the whole year, and now they're forcing you to book quarterly. So it has shortened up some of the view in the Class 2 space. But, I and John, we're not hearing any of that in the Class 3 and above. .

是的，我同意約翰、馬特的觀點。我認為它更屬於 2 類，因為我們聽說福特現在每季度分配一次。所以這可能是人們試圖理解和做出的一些調整，過去，它會讓你預訂一整年，現在他們強迫你每季度預訂一次。所以它縮短了 2 類空間中的一些視圖。但是，我和約翰，我們在 3 級及以上的班級中沒有聽到任何這樣的聲音。 .

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Randy Wilson for any closing remarks. .

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Randy Wilson 作閉幕詞。 .

I'd like to thank you for participating in today's conference call. As Daryl and John mentioned in their prepared remarks, we look forward to hosting investors at the NTEA Work Truck week taking place in Minneapolis, on March 7 through 9.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。正如 Daryl 和 John 在他們準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們期待著在 3 月 7 日至 9 日在明尼阿波利斯舉行的 NTEA 工作卡車週上接待投資者。

In addition, we will be hosting one-on-one investor meetings and fireside chats in March, at the Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference on March 6, and the 35th Annual ROTH Capital Conference on March 13 and 14.

此外，我們將在 3 月、3 月 6 日的 Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference 和 3 月 13 日至 14 日的第 35 屆年度 ROTH Capital 會議上舉辦一對一的投資者會議和爐邊談話。

We thank you for your interest in the Shyft Group. And with that, operator, please disconnect the call.

感謝您對 Shyft Group 的關注。有了這個，接線員，請掛斷電話。

Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講，您現在可以斷開連接了。