宣偉 (SHW) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for joining the Sherwin-Williams Company's review of fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results and our outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2025. With us on today's call are Heidi Petz, President and CEO; Al Mistysyn, Chief Financial Officer; Paul Lang, Chief Accounting Officer; and Jim Jaye, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. This call is being webcast simultaneously in listen-only mode by Issuer Direct via the internet at www.sherwin.com. An archived replay of this webcast will be available at www.sherwin.com, beginning approximately two hours after this conference call concludes.

早安.感謝您參與宣威公司對 2024 年第四季和全年業績的回顧以及對 2025 年第一季和全年的展望。參加今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Heidi Petz； Al Mistysyn，財務長；保羅‧朗 (Paul Lang)，首席會計官；以及投資者關係和傳播高級副總裁 Jim Jaye。本次電話會議將由 Issuer Direct 透過網際網路（www.sherwin.com）以只聽模式同步進行網路直播。本次網路廣播的存檔重播將在本次電話會議結束後約兩小時在 www.sherwin.com 上提供。

This conference call will include certain forward-looking statements as defined under the US federal securities laws with respect to sales, earnings, and other matters. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. A full declaration regarding forward-looking statements is provided in the company's earnings release transmitted earlier this morning. After the company's prepared remarks, we will open the session to questions.

本次電話會議將包括美國聯邦證券法定義的有關銷售、收益和其他事項的某些前瞻性陳述。任何前瞻性陳述均僅代表該陳述發表之日的觀點，本公司不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論其是否出現新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。該公司今天早上發布的收益報告中提供了有關前瞻性陳述的完整聲明。在公司發表完準備好的發言後，我們將開始回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Jim Jaye.

現在我將電話轉給 Jim Jaye。

Thank you, and good morning to everyone. Sherwin-Williams delivered strong fourth-quarter results that concluded a record year for the company. In what remained a very choppy demand environment, full-year consolidated sales increased slightly driven by our deliberate and targeted investments to gain share and overcome softness in core accounts.

謝謝大家，早安。宣威威廉斯公司第四季業績強勁，為公司創下了歷史新高的一年。在需求環境依然波動較大的情況下，全年綜合銷售額仍小幅增長，這得益於我們為爭取市場份額和克服核心賬戶疲軟而進行的慎重和有針對性的投資。

Our gross profit dollars and margin expanded, EBITDA dollars and margin expanded, and adjusted earnings per share grew by near-double-digit percentage to $11.33 a share. Consolidated sales in the fourth quarter increased by low single-digit percentage and gross margin improved slightly over a very strong level a year ago. As we expected and previously described, year-over-year growth in SG&A moderated to a low single-digit level. Adjusted earnings per share quarter increased by 15.5%.

我們的毛利和利潤率有所擴大，EBITDA 和利潤率也有所擴大，調整後每股盈餘成長近兩位數，達到每股 11.33 美元。第四季度綜合銷售額實現了低個位數百分比成長，毛利率較去年同期的強勁水平略有提高。如我們預期和先前所描述的，銷售、一般及行政開支的年增率放緩至低個位數水準。調整後每股盈餘季度成長15.5%。

In terms of our segments in the fourth quarter, paint stores group sales increased in the range we expected led by high single-digit growth in residential repaint and protective and marine. Consumer brands group sales decreased in the range we expected, all related to unfavorable FX as volume and price mix were slightly positive. Within performance coatings group sales were slightly below expectation as strength in packaging and coil was offset by softness in other divisions. Adjusted margin expanded year over year in all three operating segments. The slide deck accompanying our press release this morning provides more detail on fourth-quarter segment performance.

就我們第四季度的各個部門而言，油漆店集團銷售額在我們預期的範圍內增長，其中住宅重塗、保護和船舶部門的銷售額實現了高個位數增長。消費品牌集團銷售額下降在我們預期的範圍內，均與不利的外匯因素有關，因為銷售和價格組合略有正面。性能塗料集團的銷售額略低於預期，因為包裝和捲材部門的強勢被其他部門的疲軟所抵消。三個營運部門的調整後利潤率較去年同期均有所擴大。我們今天上午新聞稿中的幻燈片提供了有關第四季度分部業績的更多詳細資訊。

Let me now turn it over to Heidi, who will provide a few full-year 2024 highlights before we move on to our 2025 outlook and your questions.

現在，讓我把時間交給海蒂，她將提供一些 2024 年全年的亮點，然後再討論 2025 年的展望並回答您的問題。

Thank you, Jim, and Happy New Year to all of those that are listening. I hope you had a wonderful holiday season and are geared up for the year ahead. I know you're eager to get to our 2025 outlook. But first, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on what our 64,000 dedicated global employees have achieved over the last year.

謝謝你，吉姆，祝所有聽眾新年快樂。我希望您度過了一個美好的假期，並為新的一年做好了準備。我知道您渴望了解我們的 2025 年展望。但首先，我想花點時間來回顧一下我們全球 64,000 名敬業的員工在過去一年裡的成就。

I'm proud of what our team has delivered in 2024. We entered the year amidst an extremely choppy demand environment that, quite frankly, never improved meaningfully. We knew this was a possible scenario, and we doubled down on controlling what we could control.

我為我們團隊在 2024 年所取得的成績感到自豪。今年以來，我們正處於需求環境極不穩定的時期，坦白說，這種狀況從未得到任何有意義的改善。我們知道這是一種可能出現的情況，因此我們加倍努力控制我們能夠控制的事情。

We stayed true to our strategy. We made targeted investments, focused on share gains, and executed on our enterprise priorities. We continue to deliver innovative solutions for our customers and in a disruptive competitive environment certainly stood out by being a consistent, reliable, and dependable partner.

我們堅持我們的戰略。我們進行了有針對性的投資，專注於份額成長，並執行了企業重點任務。我們持續為客戶提供創新的解決方案，並在激烈的競爭環境中脫穎而出，成為始終如一、可靠且值得信賴的合作夥伴。

In addition to the strong margin expansion and earnings growth that Jim described a moment ago, it was another very good year of cash generation which was $3.2 billion or 13.7% of sales. We continued to execute our disciplined approach to capital allocation during the year, including $2.5 billion, which we returned to shareholders for share repurchases and dividends. In terms of CapEx, we invested $1.1 billion, including approximately $532 million for our new headquarters and R&D center, which we expect to begin occupying this year. We ended 2024 with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio at 2.2 times.

除了 Jim 剛剛描述的強勁利潤率擴大和獲利成長之外，今年也是現金創造量非常好的一年，現金創造量達到 32 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.7%。我們在這一年中繼續執行嚴謹的資本配置方法，其中包括向股東返還 25 億美元以用於股票回購和股利。在資本支出方面，我們投資了 11 億美元，其中包括新總部和研發中心的約 5.32 億美元，我們預計今年將開始投入使用。截至 2024 年，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.2 倍。

Looking at our reportable segments on a full-year basis, paint stores grew by a low single-digit percentage. Residential repaint drove this segment growth and increased by a mid single-digit percentage basis. This was strong performance given anemic existing home sale and is the clearest example of a return on our prior investments. New residential and commercial both increased by low single-digit percentages in a challenging rate environment. Flattish year-over-year segment margin reflects our continued growth investments, which we are confident will continue to drive above market sales over the long term.

從全年報告來看，油漆店的銷售額僅成長了個位數。住宅重新粉刷推動了這一細分市場的成長，並以中等個位數的百分比成長。在現有房屋銷售低迷的情況下，這表現十分出色，也是我們先前投資獲得回報的最明顯例子。在充滿挑戰的利率環境下，新建住宅和商業均實現了低個位數的百分比成長。與去年同期相比持平的分部利潤率反映了我們持續的成長投資，我們相信，從長期來看，這將繼續推動市場銷售額的成長。

Consumer brands had a challenging year on the top line with lower sales resulting from soft DIY demand and unfavorable FX. Adjusted segment margin expanded back to our target level due to higher fixed cost absorption in the manufacturing and distribution operations within the segments. At the same time, we maintained our investments to support our customers despite weaker than expected volume in North America. Performance coating sales varied by division and geography. Acquisitions added a low single-digit percentage in the year but was offset by unfavorable price mix and FX. Coil was the strongest performer driven by new account wins.

消費品牌度過了充滿挑戰的一年，由於 DIY 需求疲軟和外匯不利，銷售額下降。由於分部製造和經銷業務中固定成本吸收增加，調整後的分部利潤率重新擴大至我們的目標水準。同時，儘管北美市場的銷售量低於預期，我們仍保持投資以支持客戶。性能塗料的銷售因部門和地區不同而有所差異。收購在當年帶來了低個位數百分比的成長，但卻被不利的價格組合和外匯所抵銷。在新帳戶贏得的推動下，Coil 表現最為強勁。

We're also pleased with packaging which returned to growth as we won new accounts and recaptured the majority of previously lost share just as we indicated we would. Industrial was up mid single digits driven by an acquisition. Accelerated share gains in auto refinish were not enough to overcome softness in core account driven by lower insurance claim. General industrial, our largest division remained under the most pressure during the year with softness in heavy equipment demand. Adjusted segment margin expanded to 18%, the highest level since the Valspar acquisition in 2017.

我們也對包裝業務恢復成長感到滿意，因為我們贏得了新客戶並重新奪回了之前失去的大部分份額，正如我們所預測的那樣。受收購的推動，工業收入出現了中等個位數的成長。汽車修補漆市場份額的加速成長不足以彌補因保險索賠減少而導致的核心帳戶疲軟。我們最大的部門——一般工業，由於重型設備需求疲軟，今年仍承受最大的壓力。調整後分部利潤率擴大至 18%，為 2017 年收購 Valspar 以來的最高水準。

Throughout 2024, we continued to operate from a position of strength. In fact, our confidence in our strategy along with our team's ability to execute led us to increase several of our midterm financial targets at our Investor Day this past August. I am confident we will achieve those targets over time given a more consistent demand environment. As we begin 2025, I'm also highly confident that nobody is better positioned than Sherwin-Williams.

在整個 2024 年，我們將繼續保持實力優勢。事實上，我們對自己的策略以及團隊的執行能力的信心，促使我們在今年 8 月的投資者日上提高了幾個中期財務目標。我相信，在更穩定的需求環境下，我們終將實現這些目標。當我們進入 2025 年時，我也非常有信心，沒有人比宣威威廉斯 (Sherwin-Williams) 處於更有利的位置。

During our October earnings call, we were among the first to describe the demand environment as softer for longer with an expectation that the first half of 2025 will likely remain choppy. Three months later, we have seen little evidence to change that view, and given the indicators that we do see, several end markets may not improve until 2026.

在 10 月的財報電話會議上，我們是第一批將需求環境描述為長期疲軟的人之一，並預計 2025 年上半年可能會繼續波動。三個月後，我們幾乎沒有看到任何證據來改變這種觀點，而且根據我們看到的指標，幾個終端市場可能要到 2026 年才會改善。

On the architectural side of the business, residential repaint demand has become slightly more encouraging as existing home sales have begun to show modest signs of recovery and Harvard's LIRA index shows a return to very [ flat ] growth. Residential repaint remains our single largest share gain opportunity, and we significantly outperformed the market in 2024 given our targeted investments in sales reps, training and digital tools, just to name a few. We would expect similar outperformance in 2025.

在建築業務方面，由於現有房屋銷售開始出現溫和復甦跡象，且哈佛的 LIRA 指數顯示恢復到非常[平穩]的增長，住宅重新粉刷的需求變得略微令人鼓舞。住宅重新粉刷仍然是我們最大的份額成長機會，而且鑑於我們在銷售代表、培訓和數位工具等方面的有針對性的投資，我們在 2024 年的表現遠遠優於市場。我們預期 2025 年的表現將有類似的優異表現。

Looking at new residential, year-over-year growth in single-family starts has been choppy over the last several months. Rate cuts have had little impact and mortgage rates remain well above 6%. We would expect to continue strengthening our homebuilder customer relationships to outperform the market. In commercial, we've been clear that we expect completions to be soft in 2025 as year-over-year multifamily starts have been mostly down by double-digit percentages since the middle of 2023. Even if commercial starts do pick up in 2025, which seems unlikely given a consistently soft architectural billing index, they won't turn into painting and completions until well into 2026.

縱觀新住宅，過去幾個月單戶住宅開建數量的年增率一直不穩定。降息收效甚微，抵押貸款利率仍遠高於6%。我們希望繼續加強與房屋建築商客戶的關係，以超越市場。在商業領域，我們已經明確表示，預計 2025 年的完工量將會疲軟，因為自 2023 年中期以來，多戶型住宅開工量同比大多下降了兩位數的百分比。即使 2025 年商業開工量確實回升，但考慮到建築業帳單指數持續疲軟，這似乎不太可能，但它們要到 2026 年才會轉化為塗裝和竣工量。

Property maintenance spending still appears to be idling and neutral. On the DIY side, we do not currently see a macroeconomic catalyst driving meaningful improvement in consumer demand. On the industrial side, the PMI numbers for manufacturing in the US and Europe have been negative for multiple months, with Brazil and China being slightly positive. We expect coil to grow again driven by significant new account wins over the past year and a continued focus on new accounts this year.

物業維護支出似乎仍然處於閒置和中性狀態。在DIY方面，我們目前尚未看到宏觀經濟催化劑推動消費需求顯著改善。工業方面，美國和歐洲製造業PMI資料已連續數月為負，巴西和中國則略微呈現正值。我們預計，由於過去一年大量新帳戶的贏得以及今年對新帳戶的持續關注，線圈將再次增長。

We're also confident in packaging growth as we gain share and support customers converting to our industry-leading, non-BPA coating by 2026 to comply with European Commission mandates. In protective and marine, the project pipeline remains solid, though the timing of starts remains variable. We expect auto refinish demand to remain choppy driven by continued softness of insurance claims, so our share gains should become more evident. Industrial wood will likely track with new residential, given the furniture, flooring, and cabinetry end markets it serve. We expect general industrial demand to remain soft throughout the year.

隨著我們獲得市場份額並支持客戶在 2026 年前轉換為我們行業領先的非 BPA 塗層以符合歐盟委員會的要求，我們對包裝增長也充滿信心。在防護和海洋領域，儘管啟動時間仍不確定，但專案儲備仍然穩定。我們預計，受保險索賠持續疲軟的影響，汽車修補漆需求將保持波動，因此我們的份額成長應該會更加明顯。鑑於工業木材所服務的家具、地板和櫥櫃終端市場，工業木材很可能會跟上新住宅市場的步伐。我們預計全年總體工業需求將保持疲軟。

In summary, the market is not going to give us a lot of help this year. We'll continue to remain very aggressive with a focus on helping our existing customers grow as well as focusing on targeted share gains. Against this backdrop, we are providing guidance that we believe is very realistic. Should the market be better than we are currently assuming, we would expect to outperform the guidance we are providing to start the year.

總結來說，今年市場不會給我們太多的幫助。我們將繼續保持積極進取的態度，專注於幫助我們現有的客戶成長，並專注於目標份額的成長。在此背景下，我們提供了我們認為非常現實的指導。如果市場表現優於我們目前的預期，我們預期今年年初我們的業績將超過我們所給予的預期。

Moving on to our specific outlook, the slide deck issued with this morning's press release includes our expectations for consolidated and segment sales for the first quarter of 2025. The deck also includes our expectations for the full year, where consolidated sales are expected to be up a low single-digit percentage and diluted net income per share is expected to be in the range of $10.70 to $11.10 per share. Excluding acquisition-related amortization expense of approximately $0.80 per share and restructuring expense of approximately $0.15 per share, adjusted diluted net income per share is expected in the range of $11.65 to $12.05. This is a mid-single-digit percent increase at the midpoint compared to 2024 adjusted diluted net income per share of $11.33.

談到我們的具體展望，今天早上的新聞稿中發布的幻燈片包括我們對 2025 年第一季合併和分部銷售額的預期。該報告還包括我們對全年的預期，預計綜合銷售額將成長低個位數百分比，每股攤薄淨利潤預計在 10.70 美元至 11.10 美元之間。不包括每股約 0.80 美元的收購相關攤銷費用和每股約 0.15 美元的重組費用，調整後每股攤薄淨利潤預計在 11.65 美元至 12.05 美元之間。與 2024 年調整後每股攤薄淨利潤 11.33 美元相比，這是中等個位數的百分比增長。

We've provided a GAAP reconciliation in the Reg G table within our press release. Our slide deck contains several additional data points that provide important context that I'd like to touch on here. Any comparisons described are year over year. From a sales perspective, I'll remind you that the paint stores group implemented a 5% price increase effective January 6. We would expect this to ramp up to typical 50% to 60% effectiveness over the next quarter.

我們在新聞稿中的 Reg G 表中提供了 GAAP 對帳表。我們的幻燈片包含幾個額外的數據點，它們提供了我想在這裡談論的重要背景資訊。所描述的任何比較都是逐年進行的。從銷售角度，我要提醒您，油漆店集團自 1 月 6 日起實施 5% 的價格上漲。我們預計，下個季度的效率將上升至 50% 至 60%。

We also are implementing very targeted price increases in specific areas within our other two reportable segments. We expect the market asset of raw materials to be up a low single-digit percentage in 2025. We expect to overcome these raw material headwinds and deliver full-year gross margin expansion, driven by incremental 2025 pricing, simplification efforts across our supply chain, as well as our paint stores group, which is our largest and highest gross margin segment growing sales faster than the other two segments. We expect SG&A dollars to grow by a low single-digit percentage in 2025. This is a more typical level for us and less than last year's 5% increase.

我們也在另外兩個報告部門的特定領域實施了有針對性的價格上漲。我們預計 2025 年原材料市場資產將實現低個位數百分比成長。我們預計將克服這些原材料方面的不利因素，實現全年毛利率擴張，這得益於2025 年定價的遞增、整個供應鏈的簡化努力以及我們的油漆店集團（這是我們規模最大、毛利率最高的部門，銷售額成長更快）比其他兩個部分我們預計 2025 年銷售、一般及行政開支將以個位數的低百分比成長。對我們來說，這是一個更典型的水平，低於去年 5% 的增幅。

This year's increase includes $80 million of operating expenses for our new building, which will be weighted to our second half. We'll also continue to have some operating expense for our current building until we have fully completed our move. As always, we plan to control costs tightly in noncustomer-facing functions, and we have a variety of levers that we can pull depending on the material change to our outlook, up or down. As we've previously described, interest expense will be up this year. This increase includes $40 million related to refinancing of debt at higher rates, including $850 million in 2024 and approximately $1 billion expected to be refinanced in 2025.

今年的成長包括我們新大樓的8000萬美元營運費用，這筆費用將集中在我們下半年。在徹底完成搬遷之前，我們也將繼續承擔現有辦公大樓的一些營運費用。像往常一樣，我們計劃嚴格控制非面向客戶職能部門的成本，並且我們可以根據前景的重大變化（上升或下降）採取各種措施。正如我們之前所描述的，今年的利息支出將會增加。這一增長包括與以更高利率再融資債務有關的 4,000 萬美元，其中包括 2024 年的 8.5 億美元和預計 2025 年再融資的約 10 億美元。

It also includes $20 million of interest related to financing activities of our new buildings. We expect to end the year within our current long-term target debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio of 2 to 2.5 times. Other general expense items are expected to return to more historic levels in 2025 and increase approximately $75 million due to a gain on sale or disposition of assets of approximately $50 million in 2024 that we do not expect to repeat in 2025, and an increase in our environmental provision of $25 million. We expect to open 80 to 100 new stores in the US and Canada in 2025.

其中還包括與我們新建築融資活動相關的2000萬美元利息。我們預計今年底的債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率將達到目前的長期目標 2 至 2.5 倍。其他一般費用項目預計將在2025 年恢復到歷史水平，並增加約7500 萬美元，原因是2024 年出售或處置資產的收益約為5000 萬美元，我們預計2025 年不會重複這種情況，而且我們的提供 2500 萬美元的環境撥款。我們預計 2025 年將在美國和加拿大開設 80 至 100 家新店。

We'll also be focused on sales reps, capacity and productivity improvements, systems and product innovation. Next month at our Board of Directors meeting, we will recommend an annual dividend increase of 10.5% to $3.16 per share, up from $2.86 last year. If approved, this will mark the 47th consecutive year that we've increased our dividend. We expect to continue making opportunistic share repurchases. We'll also continue to evaluate acquisitions that fit into our strategy.

我們還將關注銷售代表、產能和生產力改進、系統和產品創新。在下個月的董事會會議上，我們將建議將年度股息從去年的每股 2.86 美元提高 10.5% 至每股 3.16 美元。如果獲得批准，這將是我們連續第 47 年增加股息。我們預計將繼續擇機回購股票。我們也將持續評估符合我們策略的收購。

In addition, our slide deck provides guidance on our expectations for currency exchange, effective tax rate, FX, depreciation, and amortization. Finally, I'll remind you that our first quarter is a seasonally smaller one. For that reason, we will not be making any updates to full-year guidance up or down until our second quarter is completed and we have a better view of how the paint and coating season is unfolding.

此外，我們的幻燈片還提供了對貨幣兌換、有效稅率、外匯、折舊和攤銷的預期指引。最後，我要提醒大家，我們的第一季是一個季節性較小的季度。因此，在第二季結束之前，我們不會對全年業績指引做出任何上調或下調的更新，我們會更了解油漆和塗料季節的進展。

Our team is operating with great confidence and accountability as we begin 2025. As we have consistently said, it is only a matter of when the demand environment returns to greater strength, not if, and when that shift occurs, we expect to significantly outperform the market. In the meantime, we are not waiting. We often talk about how we operate, success by design.

在 2025 年即將到來之際，我們的團隊正滿懷信心、肩負起責任。正如我們一直所說的那樣，需求環境恢復強勁只是時間問題，而不是是否會發生的問題，而當這種轉變發生時，我們預計其表現將顯著優於市場。同時，我們不會等待。我們經常談論我們的運作方式，即透過設計獲得成功。

We have a clear and winning strategy. We have the best team in the industry, and we've made the right investments, targeting specific markets and subsegments. We know how to deliver solutions for our customers that will make them more productive and more profitable. We continue to have significant new accounts and share of wallet opportunities in every business and region. We expect to continue winning more than our fair share of these opportunities.

我們有一個明確的勝利策略。我們擁有業內最優秀的團隊，並且針對特定市場和細分市場進行了正確的投資。我們知道如何為客戶提供解決方案，使他們更有效率、更賺錢。我們在每個業務領域和地區繼續擁有大量新客戶和錢包份額機會。我們期望繼續贏得更多應得的份額的機會。

I also am highly confident that our enterprise-wide efforts related to talent, simplification, digitization, supply chain responsiveness, and sustainability will continue to deliver above-market growth. We get rewarded by overcoming obstacles, finding solutions for our customers and delivering results. We are extremely well positioned to continue delivering shareholder value, and that's exactly what we intend to do in 2025.

我也非常有信心，我們在人才、簡化、數位化、供應鏈響應能力和永續性方面的企業範圍內的努力將繼續高於市場的成長。我們透過克服困難、為客戶找到解決方案並取得成果而獲得回報。我們已做好準備，繼續為股東創造價值，這正是我們在 2025 年想要實現的目標。

This concludes our prepared remarks. With that, I'd like to thank you all for joining us this morning, and we'll be happy to take your questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。最後，我要感謝大家今天早上的參與，我們很樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Melich, Evercore.

（操作員指示） Gregory Melich，Evercore。

I wanted to follow up on the raw material expense as part of the guidance, expecting that to rise this year. What commodities or areas are driving that? Are tariffs in any way a factor?

我想追蹤原材料費用作為指導的一部分，預計今年原材料費用將會上升。哪些商品或領域推動了這個趨勢？關稅是否是影響因素？

Yeah, good morning, Greg. It's Jim talking. A couple of different things to think about there. Yes, there are some tariffs that are embedded in that. Those are tariffs that are already in place, mainly related to Asian imports of epoxy, which came into effect September and November of last year. We're seeing inflation of low single digits in the raw basket. I would tell you that that is related to industrial resins, TiO2 is up a bit, solvent is up a bit, packaging up a bit.

是的，早上好，格雷格。是吉姆在說話。有幾件不同的事情需要考慮。是的，其中包含一些關稅。這些關稅已經實施，主要與亞洲環氧樹脂進口有關，去年9月和11月生效。我們看到原料籃子中的通膨率處於個位數的低點。我會告訴你，這與工業樹脂有關，TiO2 價格上漲了一點，溶劑價格上漲了一點，包裝價格上漲了一點。

In addition to that tariff that I described, we have potential for others. Those aren't in the guide right now on the raws. We'll see how that unfolds. I think you have to also think about some other factors. You have suppliers with capacity rationalization and decommissioning of their plants, which puts some pressure on price as well, so we'll see.

除了我所描述的關稅之外，我們還有其他潛力。這些目前還未包含在原始指南中。我們將拭目以待事情將如何發展。我認為你還必須考慮一些其他因素。供應商正在進行產能合理化和工廠退役，這也給價格帶來一定壓力，我們拭目以待。

Natural gas is up as well and trending upwards which is another pressure point. So I think up low single digits to start the year, fairly spread out across the year evenly and fairly spread out across the different commodities.

天然氣價格也在上漲，且呈上升趨勢，這是另一個壓力點。因此，我認為今年年初的成長速度會比較低，並且會在全年內平均分佈，並且不同商品的成長速度也會平均分佈。

And Greg, this is Al Mistysyn. One thing I would add is the additional tariffs that we're tracking very closely that are not in our guidance. If those were to occur and they're significant, we would need to go and we're prepared to go out with additional price in specific markets and segments as required.

格雷格，這是艾爾·米斯蒂辛。我想補充的一點是，我們正在密切追蹤的額外關稅並不在我們的指導範圍內。如果這些情況真的發生，而且影響重大，我們就需要採取行動，並準備好根據需要在特定市場和領域提高價格。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Can I ask about a couple of the special items that are in the guidance particularly the $80 million associated with the new headquarters? I know we've talked a lot in the past about the CapEx and the sale leaseback associated with the HQ. But I think this is the first we've talked about there being such a substantial incremental cost to using this new facility. So I'm just curious if you can help us understand what those are. I don't know, in my head, I would think the new facility would be more efficient from an energy and water, all that type of thing.

我能否問一下指導意見中的幾個特殊項目，特別是與新總部相關的 8000 萬美元？我知道我們過去已經討論過很多關於總部的資本支出和售後回租問題。但我認為這是我們第一次談論使用這個新設施會產生如此大的增量成本。所以我很好奇您是否可以幫助我們理解這些是什麼。我不知道，在我看來，我會認為新設施在能源和水等方面的效率會更高。

So what's driving the $80 million? And how much of it is one time in nature versus nonrecurring? And then you also have a step-up in the environmental spending. And I know that can be that can fluctuate year-to-year. So is there something special about the spend this year that may not recur next year? Or is this a new baseline?

那麼，是什麼推動了這8000萬美元的投入呢？其中有多少是自然界中一次性發生的，有多少是非經常性的？然後你還會增加環境支出。我知道這種情況每年都會有所波動。那麼，今年的支出是否存在明年可能不會再發生的特殊情況？或者這是一個新的基線？

Yeah, Vincent. I'll start with the new building. And the way I think about it is this is a transition year for us as a company as we're not moving into -- we're going to start occupying the building as the year goes on. And as we talked about, this is predominantly second half loaded. I thought I'd be remiss if I didn't include some estimate in our cost base to say that as we get better line of sight on the timing of occupying the building, we can refine that estimate on our July call.

是的，文森。我先從新建築開始。我的想法是，對我們公司來說，今年是一個過渡年，因為我們不會搬進來——而是在年內開始佔用這棟大樓。正如我們剛才所說，這主要是下半部的內容。我認為，如果我不在我們的成本基礎中包含一些估算的話，我會感到疏忽，因為隨著我們對入住大樓的時間有了更好的了解，我們可以在7 月份的電話會議上完善這一估算。

About 20 -- I'd say, a quarter of that $80 million are what I call transition costs, whether that is moving costs or decommissioning costs related to our old buildings. And yes, they are more efficient. However, I've got a headquarters building that I've been in for 90 years that is fully depreciated. We've made -- I'd say we made measured repairs to existing building knowing we were going to get out of this building, but if you look at the ongoing service costs, depreciation, and things like that, we'll get a better line of sight of that when we're completely into the building, new buildings we're operating, and we can figure out what's working, what's not working. So these are estimates that need to be refined.

大約 20——我想說，這 8000 萬美元中的四分之一是我所說的過渡成本，無論是搬遷成本還是與我們的舊建築相關的退役成本。是的，它們效率更高。然而，我有一棟使用了 90 年的總部大樓，它已經完全折舊了。我們已經——我想說，我們對現有建築進行了有計劃的維修，知道我們會離開這棟建築，但如果你看看持續的服務成本、折舊和諸如此類的東西，我們會得到一個當我們當我們完全進入建築物，當我們正在運營的新建築物時，我們可以更好地觀察這一點，並弄清楚哪些有效，哪些無效。因此，這些估計值需要進一步完善。

The other comment I would make on the nonoperating. Our assumption is we're going to get back to a more normal environmental costs. These are going to be more first half of an impact because we had credits last year. We don't expect to repeat those. I don't think it -- I would consider it a step-up in environmental provision. I think we've made good progress on remediation and the further we get with remediation, the environmental provisions will get much clearer.

我想提出的另一個評論是關於非操作性的。我們的假設是我們將恢復到更正常的環境成本。由於我們去年已經有了信用，所以這些影響將主要集中在上半年。我們不希望重複這些。我不這麼認為──我認為這是環境保障的進步。我認為我們在補救方面已經取得了良好的進展，補救越深入，環境條款就會變得更加清晰。

So I think it's more of a back to normal expense in environmental versus maybe some credits in 2024 that I don't expect to repeat.

因此，我認為這更像是恢復正常的環境支出，而不是 2024 年的一些信貸，我預計這些信貸不會重複。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Heidi, on the share gain opportunity, can you help frame how that looks to you in terms of relative to the PPG business? And looking back to last year, how much of the Kelly-Moore business did you end up picking up?

海蒂，關於股份成長機會，您能否幫助描述相對於 PPG 業務而言這對您有何影響？回顧去年，您最終獲得了多少 Kelly-Moore 業務？

Let me start with Kelly-Moore just because sequentially, obviously, that's, I would say, large or significantly behind us. I don't know that we would share a number, and I'm certainly not prepared to share a number today, but I would tell you, given how complementary that business model was to us relative to some of the key segments I'll point to res repaint. We were able to, I think, be very well positioned. The team was very aggressive to make sure that we were focused on customer continuity and that we were the health that they wanted to transition to. So we're in a good position there. We expect that to continue into the run rate.

讓我先從凱利摩爾開始，因為按順序來看，顯然，我想說，他們遠遠落後於我們。我不知道我們是否會分享一個數字，我今天當然也不准備分享一個數字，但我會告訴你，考慮到這種商業模式與我們在某些​​關鍵細分市場中的互補性，我將指向res重新繪製。我認為，我們能夠處於非常有利的位置。團隊非常積極地確保我們專注於客戶的連續性，並確保我們是他們想要過渡的健康狀態。因此我們處於有利地位。我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

As I look at the PPG sale, I would first describe that as an opportunity that we just came out of our national sales meeting and was not able to address over 10,000 of our store managers or reps. And I would tell you, ripe with opportunity is the general sentiment. When you think about breaking that down in terms of how we look at the share gain opportunity, I think you have to start by segment and also a little bit by region, the size of contractor. We're largely focused with the crossover between property management, certainly commercial, new residential, so we're going to continue to be very aggressive to make sure that we are best positioned across those segments.

當我回顧 PPG 銷售時，我首先將其描述為一個機會，因為我們剛剛結束了全國銷售會議，並且無法向 10,000 多名商店經理或銷售代表發表講話。我想告訴你們，大家普遍認為機會無限。當您考慮按照我們如何看待份額成長機會來細分這一點時，我認為您必須按細分市場開始，同時也要按地區、承包商的規模開始。我們主要專注於物業管理、商業和新住宅之間的交叉，因此我們將繼續積極進取，確保我們在這些領域處於最佳地位。

I will also tell you, we are very focused on quality sales and making sure that we're targeting the customers that candidly value what it is that we do and what we bring to bear with our reps, our stores, our delivery, our tools, everything that we can put in front of them to make these contractors even more profitable than they are today is where we're going to focus. But there's a bit of a time lag. If you think about the speed in which we're able to pick up a res repaint contractor, while that's not easy and the team is working very hard to do so. You kind of see that return more quickly versus someone more in the property maintenance, commercial space might be working -- we'll be working on projects that just simply have longer lag periods.

我還要告訴你，我們非常注重銷售質量，確保我們瞄準的是那些坦誠評價我們所做的事情以及我們為我們的銷售代表、我們的商店、我們的配送、我們的工具所付出努力的客戶。我們將重點關注的是，我們可以為他們提供一切可能的方法，使這些承包商比現在獲得更多的利潤。但存在一些時間差。如果您想想我們能夠找到重新粉刷承包商的速度，那麼這並不容易，而且團隊正在非常努力地做到這一點。與物業維護、商業領域中的其他人相比，您會看到回報更快——我們將致力於那些滯後期更長的項目。

There could be bigger sized projects in play that are already committed to. So we're working really hard to really try to sync up as the market does recover, we'll see how the back half of '25 goes. But as we look into '26, we want to make sure that we are absolutely best positioned to take that share.

可能已有更大規模的專案正在實施中，並且已經承諾實施。因此，我們正在非常努力地嘗試與市場復甦同步，我們將看看 25 年下半年的情況如何。但當我們展望26年時，我們希望確保我們絕對處於最佳位置來佔據這一份額。

John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO資本市場部的約翰·麥克納爾蒂 (John McNulty) 說。

So I guess you sounded like there was at least a little bit of optimism in some of the paint store group end markets, particularly resi repaint, I guess can you help us to think about what your customers are saying about their backlog. I know it's a seasonally kind of odd time or early time. But where is that optimism coming from? Can you help us to think about that?

所以我想你聽起來好像在某些油漆店集團終端市場，特別是 resi repaint 中至少有一點樂觀，我想你能幫助我們思考一下你的客戶對他們的積壓訂單有何看法嗎？我知道這是一個季節性的奇怪時間或早期時間。但這種樂觀情緒從何而來？你能幫助我們思考一下嗎？

Yes, John, I'll start here. I think you're right. I mean we did indicate there's moderate optimism, if I could kind of even moderate the word optimism. We're aggressively partnering with these contractors that are in the current environment while the market is still kind of choppy. You've seen, I'm sure, certainly the LIRA indicators that paint's likely going to hold up overall over everything else.

是的，約翰，我從這裡開始。我認為你是對的。我的意思是，我們確實表明存在適度的樂觀情緒，如果我可以稍微緩和一下樂觀這個詞的話。在當前市場環境依然不穩定的情況下，我們正積極與這些承包商合作。我確信，您已經看到，LIRA 指標顯示，總體而言，其走勢很可能優於其他所有指標。

But I would tell you, part of this is making sure that our teams are looking to intercept. As you look at our current res repaint contractors, our existing contractors, helping them growing their business, helping them market their business helping them get more leads, close more leads so that they can become more profitable. And then in terms of pursuing share gains and new customers, there is a lot of disruption out there, and we are going to continue to be consistently in stores, reps, tools, making sure that they're prepared. But I'll hand it over to Al, any additional comments you want to make here relative to some of the indicators?

但我想告訴你，這其中的一部分是確保我們的團隊正在尋求攔截。正如您所看到的，我們目前的重新粉刷承包商、我們現有的承包商，幫助他們發展業務，幫助他們推銷業務，幫助他們獲得更多的潛在客戶，關閉更多的潛在客戶，以便他們能夠獲得更多的利潤。在追求份額成長和新客戶方面，市場上存在著許多幹擾，我們將繼續在商店、銷售代表和工具方面持續努力，確保他們做好準備。但我會把它交給 Al，您想針對某些指標提出任何其他評論嗎？

Yes, John. I think I just reinforce that we do expect that the demand environment will improve as the year goes on. And I'd highlight that as we talked about on our third quarter call, as we talked about on this call, the first half is going to continue to be choppy and a continuation of what we saw in our second half 2024. Our sales guidance to (inaudible) for the first half would be up or down low single digits. And then up low to mid-single digits in the second half with our Paint Stores Group being at or above the high end of those ranges.

是的，約翰。我認為我只是想強調，我們確實預期隨著時間的推移，需求環境將會改善。我想強調的是，正如我們在第三季度電話會議上所討論的那樣，正如我們在這次電話會議上所討論的那樣，上半年將繼續波動，並延續我們在2024 年下半年所看到的情況。我們對上半年的銷售預期（聽不清楚）將會上升或下降個位數。然後在下半年上升到中個位數，我們的油漆店集團處於或超過了這些範圍的高端。

And you're going to -- we do expect some macro improvement as the year goes on. But we also expect to annualize some of the bigger headwinds on our core business that we saw throughout 2024 that we should, with the aggressive new account equity and share of wallet activity that each of the teams to complete, we should start seeing more volume as we go into the second half. And as you would expect, our earnings will flow in a similar fashion. We expect to be up year-over-year in our first half but not nearly as much as we do expect to see in our second half.

而且你將會—我們確實預計隨著時間的推移宏觀情況會有所改善。但我們也希望將我們在 2024 年看到的一些核心業務面臨的較大阻力年度化，隨著每個團隊積極完成新帳戶權益和錢包份額活動，我們應該開始看到更多的交易量我們進入下半場。正如您所期望的，我們的收益也會以類似的方式流動。我們預計上半年的銷售額將年增，但遠不及下半年的預期。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯·帕金森（Chris Parkinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

Great. So in addition to some of the gross spend in terms of stores and sales associates, you've also been spending a decent amount on product breadth and some new products and PSG and kind of getting up on some of the price points. And it sounds like you're pretty enthusiastic on some stuff in PC as well. Can I just ask what are the two to three largest growth or opportunities that you see in '25 and '26 when you step back as CEO, just regardless of what the macro environment does, where are you most excited?

偉大的。因此，除了在商店和銷售人員方面的一些總支出之外，您還在產品廣度和一些新產品以及 PSG 上花費了相當多的資金，並且提高了一些價格點。聽起來你對 PC 中的一些東西也非常熱衷。我可以問一下嗎，當您卸任執行長一職後，您認為 2025 年和 2026 年最大的兩到三個成長或機會是什麼？

Yes, great question. I think there's a number of items I would point to where we see continued strength. We would expect to outperform res repaint, again, I'm going to point to that as an example. You mentioned how we're looking at product introduction. It's a really good call out because when you think about not only the mix benefit that we see from a margin standpoint, but our ability to bring solutions to these contractors that value productivity above all the cost of labor being a significant part of the total cost of the job.

是的，很好的問題。我想指出的是，在很多方面我們都看到了持續的強勢。我們希望表現優於 res repaint，再次，我將以此為例。您提到了我們如何看待產品介紹。這是一個很好的呼籲，因為當你考慮到不僅從利潤角度看到的混合效益，而且我們有能力為這些承包商提供解決方案時，這些承包商重視生產力高於勞動力成本，而勞動力成本是總成本的重要組成部分的工作。

We're able to bring technologies. They are more in the premium because they are absolutely helping these crews to save time, ultimately money on these job sites. And so there's mix favorability, certainly which we love because we want to continue to stay kind of cutting edge as leaders and innovating in that space to help these contractors. So that will be the biggest piece. I think if you look on the performance side, similar to what I mentioned in my prepared remarks as well, I would point to coil and packaging as the two, three there.

我們能夠帶來技術。他們之所以能獲得更多的福利，是因為他們確實幫助了這些施工隊節省了時間，最終節省了施工現場的金錢。因此存在混合有利性，我們當然喜歡它，因為我們希望繼續保持領先地位，並在該領域進行創新，以幫助這些承包商。所以這將是最大的一塊。我認為，如果從性能方面來看，類似於我在準備好的評論中提到的，我會指出線圈和包裝是其中的兩個、三個。

You've got a lot of focus here. Again, the market is not going to help us, but the team has been relentlessly focusing on new accounts, new business wins, fully expect us to continue to do that in both of those segments.

您在此已獲得了極大的關注。再說一次，市場不會幫助我們，但團隊一直在堅持不懈地專注於新帳戶、新業務，完全希望我們能夠在這兩個領域繼續做到這一點。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Do you expect non-resi to be down all 2025? Or do we have easy comps in the back end of the year where you might actually have some positive comps?

您是否預期 2025 年非住宅市場將持續下降？或者我們在今年年底是否有輕鬆的比較，您實際上可能會有一些積極的比較？

Yes. John, it's possible that we could have positive comps. There's obviously a number of macro things that have to improve to help us the biggest being as you get into interest rates, and we've talked about proper maintenance and the CapEx shortfall that we've seen or the lack of investment, I should say that we've seen we're, again, cautiously optimistic as the year goes on, you'll see some of that improve. I think commercial, we've been very clear. We do expect to see that drop in our second half, knowing that, we've been really aggressive at pursuing new opportunities to try to mitigate that.

是的。約翰，我們有可能獲得正面的回報。顯然，有許多宏觀方面需要改進，才能對我們有所幫助，其中最大的就是利率，我們已經討論了適當的維護和我們看到的資本支出短缺，或者說缺乏投資，我應該說我們已經看到，我們再次保持謹慎樂觀的態度，隨著時間的推移，你會看到一些改善。我認為商業方面我們已經非常清楚了。我們確實預計下半年會出現這種下降，知道這一點，我們一直在積極尋找新機會，試圖減輕這種下降趨勢。

As the market goes, we're not immune to that macro slowdown, but we certainly are doing everything we can to mitigate it with these other segments, including P&M and trying to accelerate our res repaint to help minimize that.

隨著市場的發展，我們並不能免受宏觀經濟放緩的影響，但我們肯定會盡一切努力透過包括P&M 在內的其他部門來緩解這種影響，並試圖加快我們的資源重繪，以幫助將這種影響降至最低。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

I wanted to ask on the CapEx guidance. So I mean, a few things there. One, I guess, the $200 million of building spend, is that because the cost of the headquarters is higher? Or are you now doing more or something different there? And then ex that, even $700 million guide is a bit higher than probably the $500 million that we're modeling longer term.

我想問一下資本支出指導。我的意思是，那裡有幾件事。第一，我猜，2 億美元的建設支出，是因為總部的成本更高嗎？或者您現在在那裡做更多或不同的事情？此外，即使 7 億美元的指導價也可能比我們長期預測的 5 億美元高一點。

Is there more growth investments that you're doing that is worth calling out now, or is there some reason why your sustainable CapEx should be higher looking two, three years out?

您所做的成長投資中，是否有值得現在關注的，或者是否有理由認為兩三年後您的永續資本支出應該更高？

Yes, Josh. Let me -- the new buildings, $200 million is just the combination of finishing up our R&D center in our headquarters. As you know, we will get reimbursed for a portion of the headquarters in financing, but it all sits in CapEx. And I'm happy to say this will be the last year you'll hear us talk about CapEx for our new buildings. On the core CapEx, I -- we've targeted 2% of sales.

是的，喬希。讓我——新建築，2 億美元只是我們總部研發中心的總投資。如您所知，我們將獲得總部部分融資的補償，但這些費用均包含在資本支出中。我很高興地說，這將是您最後一次聽到我們談論新建築的資本支出。在核心資本支出方面，我們的目標是佔銷售額的 2%。

I expect to be in that target long term. In 2025, we are investing in additional architectural capacity that we've talked about, about our Statesville factory with our confidence in our long-term growth initiatives within paint stores group, within the consumer brands group, we'll fill that capacity up in a fairly short period of time. And then we're also investing in warehouse automation as we've talked about with labor constrained and manufacturing and distribution, we continue to look for opportunities to automate in those areas to take more weight off the back of our people. So long term, we'll see the benefits of that. But the last thing I'd say is approximately 60% of our CapEx is -- has a return on it.

我希望能夠長期實現這個目標。2025 年，我們將投資於我們討論過的斯泰茨維爾工廠的額外建築產能，我們對油漆店集團、消費品牌集團的長期增長計劃充滿信心，我們將在相當短的一段時間。然後，我們也正在投資倉庫自動化，正如我們所討論的，在勞動力受限、製造和分銷方面，我們將繼續尋找在這些領域實現自動化的機會，以減輕我們員工的負擔。所以從長遠來看，我們會看到它的好處。但我最後要說的是，我們的資本支出中約有 60% 是有回報的。

And we expect to continue to see efficiencies out of our global supply chain related to that.

我們期望繼續看到與此相關的全球供應鏈效率的提高。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲費雪 (Duffy Fischer)。

Question on price. So last year, you asked for 5 in February. This year, you asked for five in January. So can you do the after-action review, how much did you get last year? What was the shape of that kind of throughout the year would be one.

關於價格的問題。所以去年 2 月你要求 5 個。今年，您在一月份要求了五個。那麼你能做一下事後回顧嗎，去年你賺了多少錢？全年都是那種形狀的。

And two, how much of that old price still gets anniversaried this year? And then does the shape of this year's price look different because you asked for it earlier, would you guess?

第二，今年的週年紀念價還能達到多少呢？那麼，由於您之前詢問過，今年的價格形態看起來是否會有所不同，您猜？

Yes, Duffy. I think what we talked about on the price last year, let me start with that. It improved as the year went on, and we had talked about coming into our second half that we'd see a more typical effective rate. So I would say, it probably took us longer than we had planned. I would think learning from that, we really led in with a lot of disciplined training in the field making sure we give our customers enough lead time to get ahead of it.

是的，達菲。我想，我們去年討論過價格問題，讓我從那裡開始。隨著時間的推移，情況有所改善，我們曾談到，進入下半年，我們將看到更典型的有效利率。所以我想說，我們可能花費的時間比計劃的要長。我想，透過吸取這一教訓，我們確實在該領域進行了大量的專業培訓，確保給我們的客戶足夠的準備時間來領先。

And I would expect that our effectiveness and price will be better earlier this year than it was last year. It still will take over the next quarter to get to the effectiveness we want. But you'll see a much better effectiveness in our first half this year than you saw last year and then the annualization, yes, there's some annualization on the increase last year. And obviously, because we went out earlier this year, we'll see more effectiveness in the first quarter.

我預計今年我們的效率和價格將比去年更好。我們仍需要下個季度才能達到我們想要的效果。但你會看到，我們今年上半年的效率比去年好得多，然後是年化，是的，去年的年化率有所增加。顯然，由於我們今年早些時候就開始了，我們將在第一季看到更多的成效。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Heidi, as you kind of think about the 6 verticals within PSG, as your 2025 outlook changed in any material way versus your view when you reported 3Q earnings back in October, especially in commercial maybe?

海蒂，當您思考 PSG 內的 6 個垂直領域時，您的 2025 年展望與您 10 月份報告第三季度收益時的觀點相比是否有重大變化，尤其是在商業領域？

No, it hasn't. And I think I'll characterize that really well just a few minutes ago relative to how we're looking at commercial in general. If the market does far better than we're expecting, we expect to outperform the market. But I think this becomes a softer for longer with eyes towards 2026 at this point, Ghansham.

不，沒有。我認為幾分鐘前我將結合我們對商業的整體看法，對此進行很好的描述。如果市場表現遠好於我們的預期，我們預期會跑贏大盤。但我認為，眼下這個情況會變得更加溫和，預計到 2026 年，Ghansham。

Yes. Ghansham, I would just add, I think maybe the rate cuts effect -- have been doing have not had the effect on the longer-term rates that we were expecting. Mortgage rates are still up in that high 6% range. All things that you're talking nuances related to where we were in October and today. But I think we're in line, if you will, across each of the different segments to say it's plus or minus a little bit, but we're right in line.

是的。甘沙姆，我只想補充一點，我認為降息效應可能並沒有對我們預期的長期利率產生影響。抵押貸款利率仍然高達 6% 左右。您所談論的所有事情都與我們十月和今天的情況有細微的聯繫。但我認為，如果你願意的話，我們在各個不同部分都保持一致，可以說有一點點正向或負向，但我們是完全一致的。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·西森。

I wanted to get a better feel for maybe some of the headwinds in '25 in the sense that it doesn't sound like demand is going to be much better in '25 versus '24. You -- in '24, you generated pretty good EPS growth of 10%. So if you think about '25, SG&A increase is going to be a little bit less year-over-year. Demand [ does ] get much worse. So just curious what else is sort of impeding better EPS growth?

我想更了解 25 年的一些不利因素，因為聽起來 25 年的需求不會比 24 年好多少。在 24 年，您實現了相當不錯的 10% 的每股收益成長。因此，如果你考慮一下 25 年，銷售、一般及行政費用的增幅將會比前一年少一些。需求確實變得更加糟糕。所以只是好奇還有什麼因素阻礙了更好的 EPS 成長？

And maybe hoping your momentum this year would be kind of mirror our guardian so --

也許希望你今年的勢頭能反映出我們的守護者--

Yes. I don't know we're going to be that good as the [ guardian ] but, yes, Mike, I think we do have some headwinds additional to what we maybe would have saw in '24. We tried to call those out, one with higher interest expense with the higher rates. We refinanced the $850 million in third quarter of '24 at a higher rate. Our expectation is the $1 billion we refinanced in third quarter of '25 will be at a higher rate, plus the financing of our new building is a headwind.

是的。我不知道我們是否會成為像《衛報》那麼優秀的人，但是，是的，麥克，我認為我們確實面臨著一些除了24年可能遇到的阻力之外的阻力。我們試圖指出這些問題，即利率越高，利息支出就越高。我們在 24 年第三季以更高的利率對 8.5 億美元進行了再融資。我們預計，25 年第三季再融資的 10 億美元利率將會更高，而且我們新大樓的融資也將面臨阻力。

The nonoperating costs getting back to a more normal level is a headwind. And we're not hiding behind those, Mike. We fully -- we saw it coming. We expect that our performance with price volume, managing our SG&A, to your point, getting on top of the low raw material and other cost basket increases, which year-over-year is going to be a little bit of a headwind. But I think the incremental new building costs in our second half, so I'm carrying that plus I'm carrying my existing buildings.

非營業成本恢復到更正常水準是一個阻力。我們不會躲在這些後面，麥克。我們完全預見了它的發生。我們預計，我們的價格成交量表現、銷售、一般及行政開支的管理，以及您所說、原材料價格低廉和其他成本籃的增加，與去年同期相比，將會有點逆風。但我認為下半年新建築的成本會增加，所以我會把這部分成本加上現有建築的成本。

Granted the existing buildings at a lower level, that $0.30 gets you to $12.15 at the midpoint, up about 7%. So I think that's kind of where we were coming into 2024, and then we saw a little bit better improvement in gross margin. We did manage our SG&A tighter in '24 than what we had planned. So we got a little bit more of a lift in '24. And I think coming into '25, we're in a similar place if you could take out the incremental new building costs.

考慮到現有建築物的水平較低，這 0.30 美元將使中間價達到 12.15 美元，上漲約 7%。所以我認為這就是我們進入 2024 年的情況，然後我們看到毛利率略有改善。我們確實在24年對銷售、一般及行政開支的管理比我們計劃的更加嚴格。因此，我們在 24 年獲得了更大的提升。我認為，進入25年，如果你能消除新增的新建築成本，我們就會處於類似的情況。

And Mike, I would add, just from an operating perspective, I think two of the macro headwinds that certainly weren't immune to single-family housing [ starts ] have been down year over year for three consecutive months and five of that -- the last eight months. So we're managing through that. And then the multifamily housing completes are slowing given some extended periods of soft start. So there are dynamics that we're going to continue to fight through and compete within them. But I think there's certainly no lack of headwinds as we enter the year.

麥克，我想補充一點，僅從營運角度來看，我認為有兩個宏觀不利因素肯定不能免受獨棟住宅（開工）的影響，這兩個因素已連續三個月同比下降，其中五個月——過去八個月。所以我們正在解決這個問題。由於經歷了一段較長的緩慢啟動期，多戶住宅的完工速度正在放緩。因此，我們將繼續努力克服這些動態並在其中競爭。但我認為，進入新的一年，我們肯定不會缺少阻力。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. Some building products companies have talked about adverse weather. And certainly, it's been cold. When you look at your first quarter, you look at January, is that something that's affected you relative to left year? And then for Al, in the Consumer Brands Group, the margins for the first three quarters year-over-year relative to last year were up about 10 percentage points.

非常感謝。一些建築產品公司談到了惡劣天氣。確實，天氣很冷。當您回顧第一季和一月時，這是否會相對於去年對您產生影響？對於消費品牌集團的 Al 來說，前三個季度的利潤率與去年同期相比上升了約 10 個百分點。

And in the final quarter, they were up maybe 2%. Were there LIFO true-ups or some LIFO dynamic that led to the sort of change in margin differential in the fourth quarter?

在最後一個季度，它們的漲幅可能為 2%。是否存在後進先出法調整或某種後進先出法動態，導致了第四季利潤差異的變化？

Yes, Jeff, let me start. The cold weather is -- we expect that in January. It's our smallest quarter of the first quarter. I think where we kind of focus our view is more in our Southeast and Southwest and yes, we have more [ cold ] there, but I think there's time as we ramp through the quarter to get that back to the -- we believe we're within guidance, if you will, right now. I think when you look at consumer and that's a very good point, that we saw in the first three quarters and talked about the fixed cost absorption adjustments that we made between GS, our global supply chain, which is embedded in our consumer to stores and our Performance Coatings Group to true up those costs.

是的，傑夫，讓我開始。我們預計一月份的天氣將會很冷。這是我們第一季中最小的一個季度。我認為我們的重點更多地集中在東南部和西南部，是的，那裡的氣溫更冷，但我認為隨著我們在本季度逐步恢復正常，還有時間——我們相信我們’如果你願意的話，現在就在指導之下。我認為當你看消費者時，這是一個很好的觀點，我們在前三個季度看到了這一點，並談到了我們在GS、我們的全球供應鏈之間所做的固定成本吸收調整，它嵌入到我們的消費者到商店的過程中，我們的高性能塗料集團來調整這些成本。

No impact on gross margin. But yes, that impact of the first three quarters. We annualized those adjustments in our fourth quarter. And if you look at our fourth quarter, the increase was primarily due to good cost control. I think that team has done a nice job managing their costs as the year has gone on to the tighter volumes.

對毛利率沒有影響。但確實，前三個季度確實有影響。我們在第四季將這些調整進行了年度化。如果你看看我們的第四季度，你會發現成長主要歸功於良好的成本控制。我認為，隨著今年業務量的收緊，該團隊在成本管理方面做得很好。

However, without really sacrificing service and options to our customers and partly offset by lower gross profit dollars related to the lower sales, we did still see some benefit in supply chain efficiencies. But going into 2025, our expectation would be those will be incremental improvements because those onetime adjustments, if you will, are no longer happening.

然而，在不真正犧牲為客戶提供的服務和選擇的情況下，並透過與銷售額下降相關的毛利下降部分抵消這一影響，我們仍然看到供應鏈效率的一些好處。但到了 2025 年，我們預計這些將是漸進式的改進，因為那些一次性的調整將不再發生。

Chuck Cerankosky, Northcoast Research.

查克·塞蘭科斯基（Chuck Cerankosky），Northcoast Research。

We've got some very favorable demographic indications for future housing demand. And Al, how might you expect it to evolve on the existing home sales and new housing starts without substantial changes in mortgage rates because they just don't seem to suddenly move? And as you indicated, they have a binding of Fed cuts as expected. So how might -- what might be the scenarios you see that the housing markets could improve on the supply side?

我們已經得到了一些對未來住房需求非常有利的人口統計指標。Al，在抵押貸款利率沒有重大變化的情況下，您認為現有房屋銷售和新屋開工將如何變化，因為它們似乎不會突然變動？正如您所指出的，他們已經按照預期對聯準會降息進行了約束。那麼，您認為房屋市場在供應方面可能出現哪些改善的情況？

Yes, Chuck. I think you're absolutely right in the sense that as existing home turnover has been backwards over 36 months in a row, there's pent-up demand that because household formations continue to be strong, there's still over 1 million, 1.1 million. We've started -- life goes on. People get married, people have children, and that just creates more pent-up demand, which may mean, Chuck, which may mean that interest rates don't need to get back to we were thinking [ you'd ] have to get back to 5% before you start seeing some movement. We saw interest rates drop into that -- our 30-year mortgage drop into that 6%, 6.5% range.

是的，查克。我認為您說的完全正確，由於現有住房成交量連續 36 個月出現下滑，存在被壓抑的需求，由於新屋組建持續強勁，目前仍有超過 100 萬、110 萬套住房。我們已開始--生活還要繼續。人們結婚，生孩子，這只會創造更多被壓抑的需求，這可能意味著，查克，這可能意味著利率不需要回到我們想像的水平。我們看到利率下降了——我們的 30 年期抵押貸款下降到了 6%、6.5% 的區間。

And we saw a nice uptick in existing home turnover. So I think we might see a different view of the world a slightly higher interest mortgage rate gets people to move, start moving and turn over homes more, which would really impact res repaint, industrial wood, our coil business on the appliances side of things of that nature. I just think as we see -- as we've put it out in our guidance, more second half kind of impacts. We just -- it just takes even when an exiting home starts to turn or to sell or new residential except it just takes time to filter through to the painting side of that.

我們看到現有房屋成交量大幅上升。因此，我認為我們可能會看到一個不同的世界觀，略高的抵押貸款利率會促使人們搬家、開始搬家和更多地轉手房屋，這將真正影響到住宅重新粉刷、工業木材、家電方面的線圈業務屬於那種性質。我只是認為，正如我們在指導中提到的那樣，下半年會產生更多影響。我們只是 — — 即使現有的房屋開始轉手或出售或新住宅，也需要時間來過濾到繪畫方面。

In the meantime, I think what's really important in terms of kind of what we can control in this environment, I'll take you back to the -- where we started last year with this -- it's when, not if. In the meantime, as we focus on partnering from an existing home sales repaint contractors and they'll take you to our national builders or regional builders on the new res side, making sure that we are partnering with them in new and innovative and creative ways to really help them solve for their biggest pain point, obviously, which is affordability as we all know. But I do think that there's -- it's masked now because the market hasn't moved. But when the market does move, Chuck, I'm very confident that we're going to be able to demonstrate a different level of partnership with these builders as a result of the team's efforts.

同時，我認為就我們在這個環境下能夠控制什麼而言，真正重要的是——我們去年開始討論這個問題——問題是何時發生，而不是是否會發生。同時，我們專注於與現有房屋銷售重新粉刷承包商合作，他們會帶你去見我們新住宅方面的全國建築商或地區建築商，確保我們以新的、創新的和創造性的方式與他們合作真正幫助他們解決最大的痛點，顯然也就是我們所知的負擔能力。但我確實認為——現在它被掩蓋了，因為市場還沒有動。但當市場發生變化時，查克，我非常有信心，透過團隊的努力，我們將能夠與這些建築商展示出不同層次的合作。

Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

麥克‧哈里森（Mike Harrison），海港研究夥伴。

We haven't really talked at all about labor costs yet today. I was wondering if you can comment on how changes in immigration policy could impact your business as well as that of your pain contractor customers to the extent that changes in policies could lead to some impact on labor availability.

我們今天還沒有真正談論勞動成本的問題。我想知道您是否可以評論一下移民政策的變化會對您的業務以及您的疼痛承包商客戶產生怎樣的影響，以至於政策的變化會對勞動力的可用性產生一定的影響。

Yes. I'd tell you that it's not a new topic for us. I think 150-year-old company, we've certainly seen a lot of administrations. And I do think with what we're seeing here we've been looking at solving for helping our contractors work through some of these challenges that might be -- it's too early to tell how this is going to impact the country, let alone our industry and our company. But I would tell you what's most important for us, regardless of where that does go is we're going to continue to stay laser-focused on helping our customers be productive.

是的。我可以告訴你，這對我們來說不是一個新話題。我認為，作為一家擁有 150 年歷史的公司，我們當然見證了許多管理變革。我確實認為，根據目前的情況，我們一直在尋求解決方案，幫助我們的承包商解決一些可能的挑戰——現在判斷這將如何影響這個國家還為時過早，更不用說我們的行業和我們的公司。但我想告訴你，對我們來說最重要的是，無論結果如何，我們都將繼續專注於幫助客戶提高工作效率。

And so if I take you to a job site, and you think about a constrained labor, we've got the crew on site. Our number one job is to get these contractors and applicators on and off the job site as quickly as possible. So that impacts everything from application to touch up avoiding having to come back on the job site. And so the controllables, again, what we are already doing and we'll continue to do are focusing on the rate technologies that help these contractors be efficient. We are investing, of course, in our delivery and in our service so that we can be accurate and precise in terms of delivery timing, so we're not putting contractors in a position where their crews are idle and waiting.

因此，如果我帶您去一個工作現場，並且您想到了受限勞動力，那麼我們就在現場安排了工作人員。我們的首要任務是讓這些承包商和施工人員盡快進入和離開施工現場。因此，這會影響從應用到修飾的所有流程，避免不得不返回工作現場。因此，可控制的，我們已經在做的事情以及我們將繼續做的是專注於幫助這些承包商提高效率的速率技術。當然，我們正在對交付和服務進行投資，以便我們能夠準確、精確地完成交付時間，這樣我們就不會讓承包商的工作人員處於等待的境地。

Certainly, our field reps that we've laid in. This is really critical in terms of problem solving real time, contractors having access, again, so that they're not [ waiting idly ] and have crews waiting. So there's a whole host of investments that we've been putting behind this. Now if and when and how this impacts us, again, too early to tell. But we're going to make sure that we're best positioned to help our contractors to be prepared and for them to win in this environment.

當然，我們已經投入了現場代表。這對於即時解決問題來說真的很重要，承包商可以再次訪問，這樣他們就不會[無所事事地等待]，也不會讓工作人員等待。因此，我們為此投入了大量的投資。現在，這是否會對我們產生影響、何時產生影響、如何影響我們，目前還無法確定。但我們將確保我們處於最佳位置，幫助我們的承包商做好準備，並讓他們在這個環境中獲勝。

Mike Leithead, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的麥克萊特黑德。

Great. I just wanted to drill into the Paint Stores 2025 sales guidance of up low to mid-single, is it fair to think of price at sort of the higher end of that low single digits and then maybe volume probably at the lower end of the low single digits? And then within that volume, is there a meaningful dispersion in your expectations between, say, the five or six different verticals within the segment?

偉大的。我只是想深入了解 Paint Stores 2025 年的銷售指導，即上漲到中個位數，是否可以將價格視為低個位數的高端，然後可能將銷量視為低端個位數？那麼，在這個數量範圍內，您的預期在該細分市場中的五到六個不同垂直領域之間是否存在有意義的差異？

Yes, Mike, I think you're correct. I think price will be stronger than volume especially as you ramp up going through the year. I would say res repaint, we'd expect to be at or above the high end of that range, continuing the market share gains and the momentum we experienced in the second half of 2024, which was actually up a high single-digit number. I think Heidi talked about the other verticals. We do think new res maintains a positive momentum -- and throughout the year.

是的，麥克，我認為你是對的。我認為價格將比銷量更強勁，特別是隨著您全年的銷售成長。我想說的是，我們預計將達到或超過該範圍的高端，繼續保持市場份額的增長和我們在 2024 年下半年經歷的勢頭，這一數字實際上上升了一個高個位數。我認為海蒂談論了其他垂直領域。我們確實認為新資源將保持積極的勢頭——並將持續全年。

And then I think commercial property maintenance, she touched on both of those. The two -- I would also touch on P&M within our paint stores group, I do think up low to mid. And then DIY, I mean, I think it's going to be flattish in the first half and then to possibly improve as existing home turnover improves.

然後我認為商業地產維護，她提到了這兩點。這兩個 — — 我也會談談我們油漆商店集團內的 P&M，我認為確實處於低到中等水平。然後是 DIY，我的意思是，我認為它在上半年將保持平穩，然後隨著現有房屋成交量的提高而可能改善。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Just curious, if you think about Q1, obviously, impacted by weather, maybe do you expect kind of the Q2 to Q4 kind of sales growth to be above Q1 levels? And if so, would that be the same for all of the segments or mostly for PSG?

只是好奇，如果您考慮第一季度，顯然受到天氣的影響，您是否預計第二季度至第四季度的銷售增長將高於第一季的水平？如果是這樣，那麼對於所有細分市場來說都是如此嗎？

Yes, Arun. I would say it's not -- I wouldn't point to the weather in our first quarter. Our first quarter is a small quarter. I think it's a continuation of the choppiness we saw in our fourth quarter. And then as the year unfolds, you're going to see varying degrees across the segments.

是的，阿倫。我想說不是——我不會指出第一季的天氣問題。我們的第一季是一個小季度。我認為這是我們第四季波動的延續。隨著時間的推移，您將看到各個部分呈現不同程度的變化。

Let's be clear, res repaint, we are very confident you're going to see consistent mid single-digit growth, if not improving. I think between the other Paint Stores Group segments, I think we just touched on those that new res, I think is pretty consistent, and the others will improve except for commercial as the year goes on. I think within our industrial businesses, we're very excited about our packaging group. And the improvements we saw in our fourth quarter and the continuation of that, not to mention the European standard and regulation that goes in the first half of '26. So we were going to see customers converting to our non-BPA epoxy which we believe is first in class.

讓我們明確一點，我們非常有信心，您將會看到持續的中等個位數成長，甚至有所改善。我認為，在油漆店集團的其他部門之間，我們剛剛談到的新部門，我認為是相當一致的，而且隨著時間的推移，除了商業之外，其他部門都會有所改善。我認為，在我們的工業業務中，我們對我們的包裝集團感到非常興奮。我們在第四季看到的改進和延續，更不用說26年上半年的歐洲標準和監管。因此，我們將看到客戶轉向我們的無 BPA 環氧樹脂，我們相信這是同類產品中的首創。

I think we've talked about auto refinish and our optimism, and we talk about claims being down double digits. I think when you look at North America in our fourth quarter, you're seeing the new account wins that got us into a low single-digit improvement, and we expect that to improve as the year goes on in '25 as you annualize some of this claims data, you'll see improvement in that area. We're also -- we've talked about coil, but new win gains there and that consistency of that team, and that's going to continue in 2025. And then Industrial Wood, we talked -- as new residential improves existing home turnover improves, it really impacts cabinets, flooring, furniture and the expectation is that improves as the year goes on. I think general industrial, and seeing the biggest headwinds, they take longer to come out of that, and I'm not expecting that we'll see improvement throughout 2025.

我想我們已經討論過汽車修補和我們的樂觀態度，我們也討論過索賠金額下降了兩位數。我認為，當你看看我們第四季度的北美業務時，你會看到新帳戶的勝利讓我們實現了低個位數的增長，我們預計，隨著25 年的到來，隨著年化，這一情況將會改善。我們也 - 我們已經討論了線圈，但那裡的新勝利以及該團隊的一致性，這將在 2025 年繼續。然後是工業木材，我們談到——隨著新住宅的改善和現有住宅週轉率的提高，它確實對櫥櫃、地板、家具產生了影響，並且預計隨著時間的推移，這種情況會有所改善。我認為，對於一般工業來說，面對最大的阻力，它們需要更長的時間才能擺脫困境，而且我預計我們不會在 2025 年看到改善。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Well, hopefully, sales and demand improve in 2026 or perhaps later, can you tell us what kind of demand improvement can you incur into footprint of stores and associates accommodate before you need to ramp up SG&A investments. So would it be 5%, 10% and then you need to ramp SG&A or perhaps a higher number?

好吧，希望銷售和需求在2026 年或更晚的時候有所改善，您能告訴我們在需要增加銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A) 投資之前，您可以在商店和員工規模中實現何種需求改善嗎？那麼，是否應該是 5% 或 10%，然後您需要增加銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 或更高的數字？

I'll start and I'll ask Al to comment. I would tell you we have the capacity. I think the fact that, again, the market is not going to help us -- we're aggressively focused on taking share. We've got the capacity relative to stores. Having said that, we're going to continue as part of our capital allocation that Al laid out, laying in 80 to 100 new stores throughout the year, and that will be largely focused on geographies where we know we have opportunity to grow and win.

我先開始，然後請 Al 發表評論。我想告訴你我們有能力。我認為事實是，市場不會再幫助我們——我們過於注重搶佔市場份額。我們有相對於商店的容量。話雖如此，我們將繼續按照 Al 提出的資本配置，全年開設 80 到 100 家新店，主要集中在我們知道有機會增長和獲勝的地區。

But by and large, I don't know that there's a magic number per se. I mean we've -- our ability to help these contractors to grow is within our capacity, our ability to help our contractors travel from store to store as well within our capacity.

但總的來說，我並不知道是否存在一個神奇的數字。我的意思是，我們有能力幫助這些承包商成長，我們也有能力幫助我們的承包商從一家商店到另一家商店旅行。

Yes, thing I would add to that, Aleksey, think of it as from a rep standpoint, it's a really variable kind of cost that we can ramp up as we see volume improving one, two quarters out with our forecasting models. I think Heidi said that we're adding 80 to 100 stores a year, that gives us great capacity to handle any res repaint or other segment increases.

是的，我想補充一點，阿列克謝，從代表的角度來看，這是一種真正可變的成本，隨著我們根據預測模型看到一兩個季度的銷量提高，我們可以增加這種成本。我認為海蒂說過，我們每年都會增加 80 到 100 家門市，這使我們有能力處理任何重新粉刷或其他細分市場的成長。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），垂直研究夥伴。

I have two questions, one for Heidi and one for Al. Maybe to start off with Heidi. On the subject to pricing, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you're pursuing increases in consumer and performance coatings in addition to the Paint Store hikes that we already talked about. How would you -- can you elaborate on that? How would you characterize prospects for positive pricing contributions from those two segments in 2025?

我有兩個問題，一個問海蒂，一個問艾爾。也許應該從海蒂 (Heidi) 開始。關於定價問題，我想您在準備好的發言中提到過，除了我們已經討論過的油漆店價格上漲之外，您還在追求消費者和性能塗料的價格上漲。您會怎樣—您能詳細闡述嗎？您如何描述 2025 年這兩個部門對定價有正面貢獻的前景？

And then for Al, what is the level of foreign exchange drag that you're baking into your guide in light of the recent dollar strength?

那麼對於 Al 來說，鑑於近期美元走強，您在指南中考慮的外匯拖累程度是多少？

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. I'll start. The comment that I shared relative to pricing for the segment is that it would be very targeted within this segment. And so you look at that through the lens of regions and geography.

是的。謝謝，凱文。我先開始。我對這一細分市場的定價的看法是，它在這一細分市場中非常具有針對性。所以您可以從地區和地理的角度來看待這個問題。

Obviously, we're not going to announce here today what those specific actions are, but where we know we need to get price, we're going to be very aggressive and make sure that we do it well.

顯然，我們今天不會在這裡宣布這些具體行動是什麼，但我們知道我們需要獲得價格，我們會非常積極地採取行動，並確保我們能做得很好。

Yes, Kevin, I think on a consolidated basis, FX, we expect to be a headwind of about 1%. But when you really break that out, it's more pronounced in our Latin America teams and in which case, you'll see maybe mid-teens impact on Latin America, which translates to about a mid-single-digit impact on consumer and then roughly a 2% impact on our Performance Coatings Group.

是的，凱文，我認為從綜合來看，外匯方面我們預計逆風幅度將達到 1% 左右。但當你真正將其分解時，你會發現它在我們的拉丁美洲團隊中更為明顯，在這種情況下，你會看到對拉丁美洲的影響可能是十幾歲的中段，這相當於對消費者的影響約為個位數的中段，然後大致對我們的高效能塗料集團產生2%的影響。

Kevin, I would just add, you asked about the specific pricing. I'd point out in the slide deck, there's a slide that may be very helpful in there that the year breaks out volume price, FX by segment. So you might want to use that as a guide.

凱文，我想補充一下，你問的是具體的價格。我想指出的是，在幻燈片中，有一張幻燈片可能非常有用，其中按年份列出了按細分市場劃分的成交量價格和外匯。因此您可能想用它作為指南。

Adam Baumgarten, Zelman & Associates.

亞當‧鮑姆加登 (Adam Baumgarten)，澤爾曼及合夥人。

You talked about gross margin expansion in '25. Can you maybe put a finer point on the magnitude you're anticipating and that's embedded in your guidance? And also, should we think about that as relatively even across the quarters or more second half weighted?

您談到了'25年的毛利率擴大。您能否更詳細地說明您所預期的規模以及它在您的指導中所體現的內容？此外，我們是否應該認為這在各個季度中相對均勻，還是在下半年更為突出？

Yes, Adam, we'll not give you an exact number, but you would expect our gross margin expansion to be -- let me put it this way. It will be less than it was than we saw in 2024 on a year-over-year basis. As the year progresses, I would expect to see our gross margin gets stronger in our second half versus our first half because of the expectation that volume improves. The price increases are meant to offset raw material cost inflation of the low single digits. Other cost basket increases of low single digits.

是的，亞當，我們不會給你一個確切的數字，但你會預期我們的毛利率會擴大——讓我這樣說吧。與去年同期相比，這一數字將低於 2024 年的水準。隨著時間的推移，我預計下半年我們的毛利率將比上半年更高，因為我們預計銷量會有所提高。此次價格上漲是為了抵銷原物料成本的個位數低通膨。其他成本籃的增幅均為個位數。

And I view that as probably about 75% of the increase. We're also continuing, as we've talked about, self-help initiatives with simplification. We expect acquisition synergies to continue to progress both sales synergies, but also on cost synergies. And then we do expect low single-digit production volume increases that with the cost controls that our supply chain teams have put in place that we get some efficiencies out of that and get some small improvements and a tailwind on supply chain efficiencies in '25. Those wrapped together, probably about 1/4 of the improvement.

我認為這大概佔增幅的75%左右。正如我們之前談到的，我們也將繼續推行簡化的自助措施。我們預期收購綜效將持續促進銷售綜效和成本綜效。然後，我們確實預計生產量將有一個低個位數的成長，透過我們的供應鏈團隊實施的成本控制，我們將從中獲得一些效率，並獲得一些小的改進，並在'25年提高供應鏈效率。那些包裹在一起的，大概有1/4的改善。

Garik Shmois, Loop Capital Markets.

Garik Shmois，Loop Capital Markets。

In Consumer Brands, just wondering if you could speak to how DIY and PRO paint volumes were in the fourth quarter? And any color on how you expect them to trend in 2025 would be great.

在消費品牌方面，您能談談第四季 DIY 和 PRO 塗料的銷售量如何嗎？如果您預計它們在 2025 年的趨勢如何，歡迎提供。

So I'll start with DIY. I think we've covered this earlier, certainly weaker than expected. I will share given from a CBG standpoint, the importance of these customers' strategic partnership that we have, continuing to invest in making sure that we are taking their success and our success. And this is really important that we're laser-focused on ensuring that as the market does recover, that we and they are best positioned on that rep. In terms of PRO paints, I'm going to jump -- leave it over to Al here.

因此我將從 DIY 開始。我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題，當然比預期的還要弱。我將從 CBG 的角度分享我們與這些客戶建立策略夥伴關係的重要性，並持續投資以確保我們能夠實現他們的成功和我們的成功。這確實非常重要，我們要全神貫注地確保隨著市場復甦，我們和他們都能處於最佳地位。就 PRO 塗料而言，我要跳轉 - 把它留給 Al。

Yes. I think the PRO paints, we are under pressure in our fourth quarter. I think that being said, we've maintained our investments in the PRO paint understanding that we don't react to a short-term headwind. We stay focused on the longer term and fully expect as, think about it as the paint stores or -- sorry, as the existing home turnover improved, we ought to see pro paint improvements in that segment and also DIY improvements in that segment as your design. And that's kind of how we laid out the plan from a top line standpoint for consumer brands.

是的。我認為 PRO 繪畫，我們在第四節面臨壓力。我認為，話雖如此，我們仍然保持對 PRO 塗料的投資，因為我們明白我們不會對短期逆風做出反應。我們專注於長期發展，並充分預期，隨著油漆店或現有房屋週轉率的提高，我們應該看到該細分市場的專業油漆改進以及該細分市場中的 DIY 改進，因為您的設計。這就是我們從消費品牌的頂線角度所製定的計畫。

really similar to how we're looking at Paint Stores Group first half, second half.

與我們對 Paint Stores Group 上半年和下半年的看法非常相似。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi Investment Research.

花旗投資研究部的 Patrick Cunningham。

I'm curious on the latest thoughts on the M&A pipeline. Should we maybe expect less of a focus on M&A this year, given some elevated capital spend, end markets relatively challenging. Any update to your thinking on some of the more sizable coatings businesses that are coming to market?

我對併購通路的最新想法很好奇。鑑於資本支出增加，終端市場相對具有挑戰性，我們是否應該預期今年對併購的關注度會降低？您對一些即將上市的規模較大的塗料企業有何看法？

This is a really consistent approach that we take here. We're always going to be looking. I don't know that I would characterize this as more or less within the year. I think it would be a very steady hand at understand where our portfolios are, where we want to drive growth within the portfolio by segment. And if there is opportunity to accelerate our strategy, whether it's a technology, a brand or a region, we're always looking, but we will go back to our capital allocation policy in general, absent all the items that I'll walk through, we'll look at that, but we absolutely do not need M&A to grow.

這是我們採取的真正一致的方法。我們將一直尋找。我不知道我是否會將其描述為在一年內或多或少。我認為，這將幫助我們了解我們的投資組合在哪裡，以及我們希望在哪些細分領域推動投資組合的成長。如果有機會加速我們的策略，無論是技術、品牌還是地區，我們都會一直在尋找，但除了我將要介紹的所有項目外，我們將總體上回到我們的資本配置政策，我們會考慮這一點，但我們絕對不需要透過併購來實現發展。

We're going to continue to focus on putting our foot on the gas where we know we have a right to win today. But should something attractive come along, you can assume that we're going to take a look at that.

我們將繼續集中精力，全力以赴，因為我們知道今天我們有權贏得勝利。但如果出現了一些有吸引力的事情，你可以假設我們會考慮它。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

I had a follow-up on the labor pool. Just curious whether you're hearing from your paint store customers anywhere in the country in particular, where they're already seeing an impact of the deportation initiative on their labor pool, and if this is a realistic impact this year, do you think that it might be more impactful on the pros that paints and maybe shift more to the paint stores business? Or might it shift more to DIY? Any thoughts on that and/or regional impacts in your view?

我對勞動力庫進行了追蹤調查。我很好奇，你是否聽到全國各地油漆店顧客的消息，他們已經看到了驅逐計劃對他們勞動力的影響，如果今年真的產生了影響，你認為它可能對油漆專業人士的影響更大，並且可能會更多地轉向油漆店業務？或者可能會更多地轉向 DIY？您對此和/或區域影響有何看法？

Steve, I think it's too early to tell. We're not hearing -- by and large, we're not hearing, frankly, a lot of commentary about this impacting contractors on the store side or the Pros Who Paint side relative to their labor pools. It does certainly reinforce, I think, our position in the market to be able to get ahead of these issues and focus on productivity. I think this just continues to put us in a leadership position there. In fact, I can tell you, I've been out with over a dozen customers since the start of the year.

史蒂夫，我認為現在說還為時過早。我們沒有聽到——總的來說，坦白說，我們沒有聽到很多關於此事對商店承包商或專業人士油漆工勞動力資源產生影響的評論。我認為，它確實鞏固了我們在市場上的地位，使我們能夠領先於這些問題並專注於提高生產力。我認為這只會讓我們繼續保持領導地位。事實上，我可以告訴你，自今年年初以來，我已經接待過十幾位顧客了。

And if there's one theme that's consistent, it's an acknowledgment that you guys are -- you're there when you say you're going to be there. Who would have thought simply doing what you say you would do would be a differentiator. But the fact that we're staying true to our focus on solving for their profitability and their productivity. I think that positions us very nicely to be able to help when -- if and when and how this does impact them. In terms of any kind of toggling or switch between stores and consumer and Pros Who Paint, I don't see that happening or in any material way.

如果有一個主題是一致的，那就是對你們的承認——當你們說要去的時候，你們就會去。誰會想到，只要實踐自己說過的承諾就能帶來差異化呢？但事實上，我們始終專注於解決他們的獲利能力和生產力問題。我認為這使我們能夠在他們受到影響時（如果、何時、以及如何）提供幫助。就商店、消費者和專業人士之間的任何切換或轉換而言，我並沒有看到這種情況發生或以任何實質的方式發生。

I think that, that's going to be a dynamic that will impact everybody kind of equally.

我認為，這將是對每個人都產生同等影響的動態。

Yes. Steve, the only thing I would add to that, to think that there'd be a shift back to DIY, it's just hard to see that when you look at over a long period of time, the trend from do-it-yourself to do-it-for-me because of some of the macroeconomic situation we have in the US with an aging demographic, the average age of a home in the US is 40 years old, which makes for a more complex type of renovations or projects, there's a lot of equity in homes that allow people to view it as an investment to improve their homes for future value and there's this trend of baby boomers staying in place longer and doing upgrades to their home because they know they're going to be there longer and typically there -- got more equity that they can hire out a contractor. So it's hard to be a flip from back to do-it-yourself over the longer term.

是的。史蒂夫，我唯一想補充的是，人們會重新轉向 DIY，但從很長一段時間來看，很難看出從 DIY 到由於美國人口老齡化的宏觀經濟形勢，美國房屋的平均使用年限為40年，因此需要進行更複雜的翻修或項目，房屋淨值很高，人們可以將其視為一項投資，以改善房屋的未來價值，嬰兒潮一代的居住時間更長，並對房屋進行升級，因為他們知道他們會住在那裡更長的時間，通常有更多的股權，他們可以僱用承包商。因此，從長遠來看，很難再從「自己動手」轉變為「自己動手做」。

Aron Ceccarelli, Berenberg.

貝倫貝格的阿隆·塞卡雷利 (Aron Ceccarelli)。

Perhaps can you elaborate a little bit on the level of profitability of your market share gains? Would it be fair to assume that these new accounts come at least at the beginning at the lower level of margins?

也許您可以稍微詳細說明一下您的市佔率成長的獲利水準？是否可以公平地假設，這些新帳戶至少在開始時的利潤水平較低？

Yes, Aron, I wouldn't classify -- I wouldn't make a broad statement like that. I think there's a lot of different activities around new account activation and depending on where that account is in their maturity level. And they may come in from a competitor and want a similar price point until they understand all the benefits, services, quality, delivery, that ecosystem that we talk about, our PRO PLUS app, and then those are the accounts that we're able to move up because they begin to sense and value what we have to offer. But I would not make a blanket statement, say all new accounts for that way.

是的，阿隆，我不會進行分類——我不會做出那麼廣泛的聲明。我認為新帳戶啟動有很多不同的活動，具體取決於該帳戶的成熟度。他們可能會從競爭對手那裡進來，想要一個類似的價格點，直到他們了解所有的好處、服務、品質、交付、我們談論的生態系統、我們的 PRO PLUS 應用程序，然後這些就是我們能夠因為他們開始感知並重視我們所提供的東西。但我不會做出一概而論，說所有新帳戶都是這樣。

In fact, I would go so far as to say, Al made a great point on the maturity of the contractor. Residential repaint being a great example where oftentimes coming in new, trying to learn and our teams are able to intercept them early in that maturity curve even all the way through to helping them present themselves a professional bid. Making sure they've got the yard signed, they're marketing their business and they see the value of everything that Al talked about. Our focus on selling them and putting them into better product and technology that they're going to make them even more efficient certainly benefits everybody as well.

事實上，我甚至可以說，艾爾對承包商的成熟度提出了很高的評價。住宅重新粉刷就是一個很好的例子，很多時候新人會嘗試學習，而我們的團隊能夠在成熟度曲線的早期攔截他們，甚至幫助他們提出專業的投標。確保他們已經與院子簽約，他們正在行銷他們的業務，並且他們看到了 Al 所說的一切的價值。我們專注於銷售它們，並將它們投入到更好的產品和技術中，使它們變得更加高效，這無疑也會讓每個人受益。

Eric Bosshard, Cleveland Research Company.

艾瑞克‧博薩德（Eric Bosshard），克里夫蘭研究公司。

Two things. First of all, I'm curious in terms of price mix, if you're seeing any sensitivity across the architectural business on the pro side or on the consumer side, trading down or anything you're doing in an environment where there's greater price sensitivity. I know that people pay for value and productivity, that's a given with Sherwin. Anything different you're observing or planning for in that area?

兩件事。首先，我對價格組合感到好奇，如果你看到建築業在專業方面或消費者方面的任何敏感性，交易量下降或你在價格上漲的環境中所做的任何事情敏感度。我知道人們是為了價值和生產力付錢，對 Sherwin 來說這就是必然的。您在該地區觀察到或計劃了哪些不同的事情？

No, Eric, I would tell you, if anything, it's the opposite. And you said it really well, the value and productivity as we continue to launch new products as we continue to focus on getting our contractors on and off job sites. I think it works candidly, the other way. And I would say that's true certainly on the PRO side, Pro Who Paints and the consumer side.

不，艾瑞克，我會告訴你，如果有的話，情況恰恰相反。您說得很好，隨著我們繼續推出新產品，隨著我們繼續專注於讓我們的承包商進出工作現場，價值和生產力也不斷提高。坦白說，我認為從另一方面來說，它是有效的。我想說，從專業人士、Pro Who Paints 和消費者的角度來看，這確實是正確的。

And then the second. In terms of the incremental spend on reps and on the selling effort, helpful to see that, that's moderating a bit in '25. In terms of the payback, any sense or guidance you can give us in terms of the payback curve as you've added and invested in them. Are they up full impact in '24 effort, which (inaudible) shows up in '25? Any thoughts about how you think about the return dynamic from that investment?

然後是第二個。就銷售代表和銷售努力的增量支出而言，有助於看到這一點，在'25年有所緩和。就回報而言，您能否就您在其中添加和投資的回報曲線給我們任何建議或指導。他們是否在 24 年的努力中發揮了全部影響力，並且（聽不清楚）在 25 年顯現出來？您對於這項投資的回報動態有何看法？

Yes, Eric, you kind of broke up, but I think what you're asking is the timeliness of getting a return on our reps. And as you know, they're predominantly res repaint reps. And I think we get a return on those in one to two quarters as -- and I think about a density within a market because what we're able to do in our densest markets is take an existing res repaint territory that gets up to a high number of accounts, high level of sales, terrifically successful. We're able to split that territory seed some of those accounts that maybe weren't getting the attention that, quite honestly, they deserved. We put a new rep in there and they both go quickly back to where they were at a higher level.

是的，埃里克，你有點崩潰了，但我認為你問的是我們獲得代表回報的及時性。而且正如您所知，他們主要是重新粉刷代表。我認為我們會在一到兩個季度內獲得回報——我會考慮市場內的密度，因為我們在最密集的市場中能夠做的是利用現有的資源重新粉刷區域，使其達到帳戶數量多，銷售量高，非常成功。我們可以分割該領土，為那些可能沒有得到應有關注的帳戶播下種子。我們在那裡安排了一位新代表，他們倆都很快回到了原來的更高水平。

So the return on our rep, especially res repaint rep is really short. And we are getting a return, and we expect to see those returns continue into 2025.

因此我們的聲譽回報，尤其是 res 重繪聲譽回報非常短暫。我們獲得了回報，我們預計這些回報將持續到 2025 年。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大（Laurence Alexander），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

This is [Carol Cheung] on for Laurence Alexander. Maybe just come back to a more general question for the full year '25. What has to go right for you to hit the high end of the guidance and what might go wrong, given the softer for longer environment. So we look at the lower end of the guidance.

我是 [Carol Cheung]，代表 Laurence Alexander 發言。也許只是回到 25 年全年的一個更普遍的問題。在較長期較為溫和的環境下，你需要做哪些事情才能達到指導的高端，又可能做哪些事情出錯。因此，我們看一下指導的下限。

Yes. I think where we're going to be within the guidance is going to be dependent on where Paint Stores Group volume is within our high and low end of the range. And I could say that also about the other segments, but really Paint Stores Group is our fastest-growing segment, our most profitable segment and where they are in that volume range will dictate where we are from an EPS standpoint.

是的。我認為，我們在指導範圍內的位置將取決於油漆商店集團的銷量在我們的範圍的高端和低端。我也可以這麼說其他部門，但實際上油漆商店集團是我們成長最快的部門，也是我們最賺錢的部門，他們在這個銷售範圍內的位置將決定我們從每股收益的角度所處的位置。

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Jim Jaye for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給 Jim Jaye 並請他作結束語。請繼續。

Yes. Thank you, Matthew. As we outlined today, we expect the macroeconomic environment to remain choppy in 2025. No surprise there. But at the same time, and I think Heidi said it very well at the beginning, we're not waiting.

是的。謝謝你，馬修。正如我們今天所概述的，我們預計 2025 年宏觀經濟環境仍將波動。這並不奇怪。但同時，我認為海蒂一開始就說得很好，我們不會等待。

We're relentlessly pursuing those opportunities that we do see. It's all about success by design. And we have a very proven track record here. We got a clear and winning strategy, the best team. We've made the right investments, and we know how to deliver the solutions for our customers that are going to make them more productive, more profitable, which is really important in this environment.

我們正在不懈地追求我們所看到的那些機會。一切都取決於設計的成功。我們在這方面有著非常成功的業績記錄。我們有明確的勝利策略和最好的團隊。我們進行了正確的投資，我們知道如何為客戶提供解決方案，使他們更有效率、更有利可圖，這在當前環境下非常重要。

Nobody is better positioned than Sherwin-Williams to win in the marketplace and deliver that consistent shareholder value, and that's exactly what we plan to do here in 2025. As always, we'll be available for your follow-up calls, and thank you again for your interest in Sherwin-Williams. Have a great day.

沒有人比宣威威廉斯更有能力贏得市場並為股東帶來持續的價值，而這正是我們計劃在 2025 年實現的目標。像往常一樣，我們將隨時接聽您的後續電話，再次感謝您對宣威的關注。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。各位，今天的活動就到此結束了。您此時斷開連接，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。