宣偉 (SHW) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for joining the Sherwin-Williams Company's review of fourth quarter 2022 results and our outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2023. With us on today's call are John Morikis, chairman and CEO; Al Mistysyn, CFO; Heidi Petz, President and COO; Jane Cronin, Senior Vice President, Corporate Controller; and Jim Jaye, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications.

早上好。感謝您加入宣偉公司對 2022 年第四季度業績的審查以及我們對 2023 年第一季度和全年的展望。今天與我們通話的有董事長兼首席執行官 John Morikis； Al Mistysyn，首席財務官； Heidi Petz，總裁兼首席運營官； Jane Cronin，高級副總裁兼公司財務總監；和投資者關係與傳播高級副總裁 Jim Jaye。

This conference call is being webcast simultaneously in listen-only mode by Issuer Direct via the Internet at www.sherwin.com. An archived replay of this webcast will be available at www.sherwin.com beginning approximately 2 hours after this conference call concludes. This conference call will include certain forward-looking statements as defined under the U.S. federal securities laws with respect to sales, earnings and other matters.

此電話會議由 Issuer Direct 通過互聯網在 www.sherwin.com 上以只聽模式同時進行網絡直播。本次電話會議結束約 2 小時後，將在 www.sherwin.com 上提供該網絡廣播的存檔重播。本次電話會議將包括美國聯邦證券法所定義的有關銷售、收益和其他事項的某些前瞻性陳述。

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which the statement is made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A full declaration regarding forward-looking statements is provided in the company's earnings release transmitted earlier this morning. After the company's prepared remarks, we will open this session to questions. I will now turn the call over to Jim Jaye.

任何前瞻性陳述僅在陳述作出之日有效，公司不承擔因新信息、未來事件或其他原因而更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。今天上午早些時候發布的公司收益報告中提供了有關前瞻性陳述的完整聲明。在公司準備好發言後，我們將在本次會議上提問。我現在將把電話轉給 Jim Jaye。

Thank you, and good morning to everyone. Sherwin-Williams delivered strong fourth quarter results compared to the same period a year ago, including high single-digit percentage sales growth, significant year-over-year gross margin improvement, expanded adjusted operating margins in all 3 segments, strong double-digit diluted net income per share growth and strong EBITDA growth.

謝謝大家，早上好。與去年同期相比，宣偉在第四季度取得了強勁的業績，包括高個位數百分比的銷售增長、毛利率同比顯著提高、所有 3 個部門的調整後營業利潤率都有所擴大、強勁的兩位數攤薄每股淨收入增長和強勁的 EBITDA 增長。

Sales in our professional architectural end markets increased by a high-teens percentage. On the industrial side of the business, sales were up by double-digit percentages in North and Latin America, partially offset by softer conditions in Europe and Asia. From a cost perspective, year-over-year inflation remained significant in the quarter, but we are encouraged by a modest sequential decrease in raw material costs for the second quarter in a row.

我們專業建築終端市場的銷售額增長了十幾%。在業務的工業方面，北美和拉丁美洲的銷售額增長了兩位數，部分被歐洲和亞洲的疲軟情況所抵消。從成本的角度來看，本季度同比通脹仍然顯著，但我們對原材料成本連續第二個季度溫和環比下降感到鼓舞。

Additionally, we made solid progress on the targeted restructuring and cost reduction actions we announced on our last call, the results of which we expect to begin benefiting us in the first half of 2023. Throughout the quarter, we remain focused on customer solutions and executing on continuous improvement in business optimization activities. We also identified opportunities and prepared for what we currently expect will be a challenging operating environment in 2023.

此外，我們在上次電話會議上宣布的有針對性的重組和成本削減行動方面取得了穩步進展，我們預計其結果將在 2023 年上半年開始讓我們受益。在整個季度中，我們仍然專注於客戶解決方案和執行持續改進業務優化活動。我們還發現了機會，並為我們目前預期的 2023 年充滿挑戰的運營環境做好了準備。

I'd like to highlight just a few of our consolidated fourth quarter numbers. Comparisons in my comments are to the prior year period unless stated otherwise. Starting with the top line, fourth quarter 2022 consolidated net sales increased 9.8% to $5.23 billion. Consolidated gross margin increased to 42.7%, an improvement of 320 basis points. SG&A expense as a percentage of sales decreased by 40 basis points to 29.8%.

我想強調我們第四季度的一些合併數字。除非另有說明，否則我的評論中的比較是與去年同期進行的。從收入開始，2022 年第四季度綜合淨銷售額增長 9.8% 至 52.3 億美元。綜合毛利率增至 42.7%，提高了 320 個基點。 SG&A 費用佔銷售額的百分比下降 40 個基點至 29.8%。

Excluding onetime costs related to our previously announced restructuring actions, gross margin improved sequentially to 42.9% in the fourth quarter of '22 from 42.8% in the third quarter of '22, and SG&A as a percentage of sales decreased 110 basis points as compared to the prior year. Consolidated profit before tax increased $186 million or 60.2%.

排除與我們先前宣布的重組行動相關的一次性成本，毛利率從 2022 年第三季度的 42.8% 連續提高到 22 年第四季度的 42.9%，SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比與去年相比下降了 110 個基點前一年。綜合稅前利潤增加 1.86 億美元或 60.2%。

Diluted net income per share in the quarter was $1.48 per share versus $1.15 per share a year ago. Excluding Valspar acquisition-related amortization expense and costs related to previously announced restructuring actions, fourth quarter adjusted diluted net income per share increased 41% to $1.89 per share versus $1.34 a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter increased $281 million or 52.7%.

本季度稀釋後每股淨收益為每股 1.48 美元，而去年同期為每股 1.15 美元。不包括 Valspar 收購相關的攤銷費用和與先前宣布的重組行動相關的成本，第四季度調整後的每股攤薄淨收益增長 41% 至每股 1.89 美元，而去年同期為 1.34 美元。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 2.81 億美元或 52.7%。

Let me now turn it over to Heidi, who will provide some commentary on our fourth quarter results by segment. John will follow Heidi with his comments on our full year 2022 results as well as our 2023 outlook before we move on to your questions.

現在讓我把它交給海蒂，她將按部門對我們第四季度的業績發表一些評論。在我們繼續回答您的問題之前，John 將跟隨 Heidi 對我們 2022 年全年業績以及 2023 年展望發表評論。

Thank you, Jim. I'll begin with The Americas Group, where sales increased 15.7% driven by mid-single-digit volume growth and continued effective pricing. Segment profit increased by $126.4 million and segment margin improved 210 basis points to 17.2%. Our PRO architectural sales grew by a high teens percentage of the quarter, led by property management and followed by new residential, commercial and residential repaint, respectively.

謝謝你，吉姆。我將從美洲集團開始，在中個位數銷量增長和持續有效定價的推動下，該集團的銷售額增長了 15.7%。分部利潤增加 1.264 億美元，分部利潤率提高 210 個基點至 17.2%。我們的 PRO 建築銷售額在本季度增長了十幾%，主要是物業管理，其次是新住宅、商業和住宅重新粉刷。

Sales in Protective & Marine, DIY in Latin America all increased by double digits, but were below the TAG segment guided range. From a product perspective, interior and exterior paint sales were both strong, with interior sales growing faster and representing a larger part of the mix. We opened 40 net new stores in the fourth quarter and a total of 72 net new stores in 2022.

拉丁美洲的 Protective & Marine、DIY 銷售額均增長了兩位數，但低於 TAG 細分市場的指導範圍。從產品角度來看，內外牆塗料銷售均表現強勁，其中室內塗料銷售增長更快，佔比更大。我們在第四季度開設了 40 家淨新店，到 2022 年總共開設了 72 家淨新店。

Moving on to our Consumer Brands Group. Sales decreased by 2.4% in the quarter, which was better than our guidance. Sales decreased due to lower volume sales and low single-digit FX headwinds, partially offset by price increases. Sales were slightly positive in North America and Europe but more than offset by significant continued weakness in China due in large part to COVID-related lockdown.

轉到我們的消費品牌集團。本季度銷售額下降 2.4%，好於我們的指引。由於銷量下降和低個位數的外匯逆風，銷售額有所下降，部分被價格上漲所抵消。北美和歐洲的銷售額略有增長，但被中國因 COVID 相關封鎖造成的持續顯著疲軟所抵消。

Customers managed their inventories as inflation continued to pressure DIY paint demand from consumers for this segment. Tightness in alkyd resin also impacted our ability to produce stains and aerosols. Adjusted segment margin was 11.3%, up 500 basis points year-over-year. We also made good progress in the quarter on the China architectural and aerosol restructuring actions that we described last quarter. The actions in the fourth quarter resulted in $25.6 million in onetime restructuring costs and a $15.5 million impairment charge.

由於通貨膨脹繼續對這一細分市場的消費者 DIY 塗料需求造成壓力，因此客戶管理著他們的庫存。醇酸樹脂的密封性也影響了我們產生污漬和氣溶膠的能力。調整後的分部利潤率為 11.3%，同比增長 500 個基點。我們在上一季度描述的中國建築和氣霧劑重組行動方面也在本季度取得了良好進展。第四季度的行動產生了 2560 萬美元的一次性重組成本和 1550 萬美元的減值費用。

Sales in the Performance Coatings Group increased 4.2% and were driven by mid-teens pricing, partially offset by a low double-digit decrease in volume. Mid-single-digit sales from acquisitions were offset by a mid-single-digit unfavorable FX impact. Adjusted segment margin increased 530 basis points to 14.2% of sales. This is the third straight quarter that this team has delivered year-over-year segment margin improvement driven by execution of our strategy, including effective pricing actions.

高性能塗料集團的銷售額增長了 4.2%，這主要是受到中等價位定價的推動，部分被銷量兩位數的低跌幅所抵消。中等個位數的收購銷售額被中等個位數的不利外匯影響所抵消。調整後的部門利潤率增加了 530 個基點，達到銷售額的 14.2%。這是該團隊連續第三個季度在執行我們的戰略（包括有效的定價行動）的推動下實現了分部利潤率的同比增長。

Sales in PCG varied significantly by region. In North America, sales increased double digits against a challenging comp. Latin America sales also increased by double digits against a strong comp. Sales in Europe decreased high single digits against a double-digit comparison and amidst continued economic slowing. Sales decreased by a low teens percentage in Asia against a double-digit comparison and as COVID lockdowns continued to impact demand.

PCG 的銷售額因地區而異。在北美，相對於具有挑戰性的競爭，銷售額增長了兩位數。相對於強勁的競爭，拉丁美洲的銷售額也增長了兩位數。在經濟持續放緩的情況下，與兩位數的比較相比，歐洲的銷售額下降了高個位數。與兩位數的比較相比，亞洲的銷售額下降了十幾歲的低百分比，而且 COVID 封鎖繼續影響需求。

From a division perspective, growth was strongest in Coil, which was up by a low double-digit percentage, followed by Auto Refinish and General Industrial, which were both up mid-single digits. Packaging was down low single digits driven by negative double-digit FX impact in Europe and Asia and against an extremely strong comparison last year of over 30%.

從部門的角度來看，卷材的增長最為強勁，漲幅為低兩位數，其次是汽車修補漆和通用工業，漲幅均為中等個位數。由於歐洲和亞洲兩位數的負面外匯影響，以及與去年超過 30% 的極其強勁的對比，包裝下降了低個位數。

We continue to feel very good about our Packaging position and expect us to be a recession-resilient performer. Industrial Wood was down low teens as the housing slowdown is impacting furniture, flooring and cabinetry market. Similar to Consumer Brands Group, Performance Coatings made good progress on its portion of the targeted restructuring actions that we described on our last call, resulting in $22.2 million in onetime costs in the quarter.

我們繼續對我們的包裝業務感到非常滿意，並期望我們成為一個能夠抵禦衰退的公司。由於房地產市場放緩正在影響家具、地板和櫥櫃市場，工業木材的價格下跌了十幾歲。與 Consumer Brands Group 類似，Performance Coatings 在我們上次電話會議中描述的目標重組行動部分取得了良好進展，導致本季度的一次性成本為 2220 萬美元。

With that, let me turn it to John for his comments on our full year results and our 2023 outlook.

說到這裡，讓我請約翰對我們的全年業績和 2023 年展望發表評論。

Thank you, Heidi, for that color on our fourth quarter segment results. I want to thank our teams for working hard to deliver a strong finish to the year. I'm particularly pleased with the significant adjusted profit margin improvement that all 3 segments delivered compared to the fourth quarter a year ago. Our fourth quarter completed a strong year for Sherwin-Williams, and I'd like to provide just a few high-level comments on our full year performance.

海蒂，謝謝你在我們第四季度的業績中使用了這種顏色。我要感謝我們的團隊努力工作，為今年取得了圓滿的成績。我特別高興的是，與去年第四季度相比，所有 3 個部門都實現了顯著的調整後利潤率改善。我們的第四季度完成了宣偉強勁的一年，我想對我們的全年業績發表一些高水平的評論。

On a consolidated basis, we delivered record sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted net income per share in 2022. We generated these results in a difficult operating environment, including relentless inflation, less-than-optimal raw material availability, a war in Europe and COVID lockdowns in China. Our people refused to be deterred by these challenges and continue to do what they do best: serve our customers.

在綜合基礎上，我們在 2022 年實現了創紀錄的銷售額、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每股攤薄淨收入。我們在困難的經營環境中取得了這些成果，包括無情的通貨膨脹、原材料供應不佳、歐洲戰爭和中國的 COVID 封鎖。我們的員工拒絕被這些挑戰嚇倒，並繼續做他們最擅長的事情：為我們的客戶服務。

Our success stems from executing on our strategy, which remains unchanged. We provide differentiated solutions that enable our customers to increase their productivity and their profitability. These solutions center on industry and application expertise, innovation, value-added services and differentiated distribution. None of this happens without the determination and dedication of our greatest asset: the more than 61,000 employees of Sherwin-Williams.

我們的成功源於執行我們的戰略，該戰略保持不變。我們提供差異化的解決方案，使我們的客戶能夠提高他們的生產力和盈利能力。這些解決方案以行業和應用專業知識、創新、增值服務和差異化分銷為中心。這一切都離不開我們最大資產的決心和奉獻：宣偉的 61,000 多名員工。

Together, this team grew full year consolidated sales by 11.1% to a record $22.1 billion. It was the 12th consecutive year we have grown the business. On a segment basis, The Americas Group delivered 12.9% sales growth and grew profit before tax $197.5 million. Our largest customer segment, residential repaint, grew by a double-digit percentage for the seventh year in a row. Sales in all other customer segments were also up by double digits for the year.

該團隊的全年綜合銷售額增長了 11.1%，達到創紀錄的 221 億美元。這是我們連續第 12 年發展業務。按細分市場劃分，美洲集團銷售額增長 12.9%，稅前利潤增長 1.975 億美元。我們最大的客戶群，住宅重新粉刷，連續第七年以兩位數的百分比增長。本年度所有其他客戶群的銷售額也實現了兩位數的增長。

Consumer Brand sales were down 1.1% for the year. Sales were up mid-single digits in North America, our largest region. This was more than offset by double-digit declines in Europe and China. Although the bottom line results weren't what we expected, 2022 was a transition year for Consumer Brands Group as they completed a number of restructuring and simplification efforts to position the business for long-term success and driving operating margins back to the high teens.

消費品牌銷售額全年下降 1.1%。在我們最大的地區北美，銷售額增長了中個位數。這被歐洲和中國兩位數的下降所抵消。儘管底線結果不符合我們的預期，但 2022 年對 Consumer Brands Group 來說是一個過渡年，因為他們完成了一系列重組和簡化工作，以使業務定位於長期成功並將營業利潤率推回到十幾歲的高水平。

Performance Coating sales were up 13.2% for the year against a 22% comparison. All divisions grew, with the exception of Industrial Wood. It was down less than 1%. Adjusted segment margin expanded 250 basis points to 14.1% for the year as we continue to recover from the highest cost inflation in the company and pursue our high-teens margin target for this segment.

高性能塗料銷售額同比增長 13.2%，而同期為 22%。除工業木材外，所有部門均有所增長。跌幅不到 1%。隨著我們繼續從公司最高的成本通脹中恢復過來，並追求我們該部門的高利潤率目標，調整後的部門利潤率今年擴大了 250 個基點至 14.1%。

Adjusted diluted net income per share increased 7.1% to a record $8.73 per share. Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $3.61 billion or 16.3% of sales. Net operating cash for the year was $1.9 billion or 18.7% of sales. We returned a total of $1.5 billion to our shareholders in the forms of dividends and share buybacks in 2022.

調整後每股攤薄淨收益增長 7.1%，達到創紀錄的每股 8.73 美元。全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 36.1 億美元，佔銷售額的 16.3%。全年淨運營現金為 19 億美元，佔銷售額的 18.7%。 2022 年，我們以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了總計 15 億美元。

We invested $883 million to purchase 3.35 million shares at an average price of $263.64. We distributed $618.5 million in dividends, an increase of 5.4%. We also invested $644.5 million in our business through capital expenditures, including approximately $188 million for our Building Our Future projects.

我們投資 8.83 億美元以平均 263.64 美元的價格購買了 335 萬股股票。我們派發了 6.185 億美元的股息，增長了 5.4%。我們還通過資本支出向我們的業務投資了 6.445 億美元，其中約 1.88 億美元用於建設我們的未來項目。

We ended the year with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.9x. Additionally, we invested $1 billion in acquisitions that accelerated our strategy. I'd also like to mention our ESG efforts where we continue to work toward meeting our longer-term targets. Newsweek, Forbes and other third parties once again recognized various aspects of our program.

年底，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比為 2.9 倍。此外，我們還投資了 10 億美元用於加速我們戰略的收購。我還想提一下我們在 ESG 方面的努力，我們將繼續努力實現我們的長期目標。 《新聞周刊》、《福布斯》和其他第三方再次認可了我們節目的各個方面。

Throughout the year, we continue to execute on continuous improvement initiatives and targeted investments to drive growth, competitiveness, efficiency and profitability. We opened 72 new paint stores and hired 1,400 management trainees. We introduced multiple new products while reducing SKUs and formulations. We expanded production capacity and enhanced procurement and logistics processes.

全年，我們繼續執行持續改進計劃和有針對性的投資，以推動增長、競爭力、效率和盈利能力。我們開設了 72 家新的油漆店，並聘請了 1,400 名管理培訓生。我們推出了多種新產品，同時減少了 SKU 和配方。我們擴大了產能並加強了採購和物流流程。

We also continued on our digital and sustainability journeys, and we executed on our acquisition strategy. I am confident we widened the gap between Sherwin-Williams and our competitors in 2022, and that's just what we intend to do again in 2023.

我們還繼續我們的數字化和可持續發展之旅，並執行我們的收購戰略。我相信我們會在 2022 年擴大宣偉與競爭對手之間的差距，而這正是我們打算在 2023 年再次做的事情。

So turning to our outlook. We enter 2023 with confidence, energy and a commitment to seize profitable growth opportunities wherever we find them. We have clarity of mission. We have the right strategy. We're focused on solutions for our customers. We're spending more time selling products and less time sourcing them, thanks to recovery in the supply chain.

所以轉向我們的前景。我們滿懷信心、活力和承諾進入 2023 年，無論我們在何處發現可盈利的增長機會。我們有明確的使命。我們有正確的策略。我們專注於為客戶提供解決方案。由於供應鏈的恢復，我們花更多的時間銷售產品，減少採購時間。

We're simplifying the business, and we're executing on targeted restructuring actions. We've made the right growth investments and will continue to do so. We also have a portfolio that should be more resilient than in prior recessions. And above all, we've got the right people. We expect to outperform the market just as we have in the past. At the same time, we're not operating with our heads in the sand.

我們正在簡化業務，我們正在執行有針對性的重組行動。我們已經進行了正確的增長投資，並將繼續這樣做。我們的投資組合也應該比之前的衰退更具彈性。最重要的是，我們有合適的人選。我們希望像過去一樣跑贏市場。與此同時，我們並沒有把頭埋在沙子裡。

We currently see a very challenging demand environment in 2023, and visibility beyond our first half is limited. The Fed has also been quite clear about its intention to slow down demand in its effort to tame inflation. These factors have not changed from what we communicated on our third quarter call, and our base case in 2023 remains to prepare for the worst. Based on current indicators, we believe this is the most realistic outlook at this time.

我們目前看到 2023 年的需求環境非常具有挑戰性，上半年之後的能見度有限。美聯儲也非常清楚其打算放慢需求以抑制通貨膨脹。這些因素與我們在第三季度電話會議上傳達的內容沒有改變，我們在 2023 年的基本情況仍然是為最壞的情況做準備。根據目前的指標，我們認為這是目前最現實的前景。

On the architectural side, it's no secret that U.S. housing will be under significant pressure this year. Single-family permits have been down year-over-year for 10 consecutive months, and single-family starts have been down year-over-year for 8 consecutive months. Mortgage rates also remain elevated. As a result, we believe our new residential volume could be down anywhere from 10% to 20% this year.

在建築方面，美國住房今年將承受巨大壓力已不是什麼秘密。單戶住宅許可連續 10 個月同比下降，單戶住宅開工數連續 8 個月同比下降。抵押貸款利率也保持高位。因此，我們認為今年我們的新住宅量可能會下降 10% 至 20%。

We expect our other PRO end markets to be more resilient than this, but there are headwinds in these areas, too. For example, existing home sales, which drive a portion of our repaint business, have declined year-over-year for 16 straight months. Now while we see a backlog of new commercial construction, the Architectural Billings Index has contracted the last 3 months.

我們預計我們的其他 PRO 終端市場將比這更具彈性，但這些領域也存在阻力。例如，推動我們部分重新粉刷業務的成屋銷售已連續 16 個月同比下降。現在，雖然我們看到新商業建築的積壓，但建築賬單指數在過去 3 個月內已經收縮。

On the DIY side, we expect inflation to continue putting pressure on consumer behavior in the U.S. and in Europe. On the industrial side, the PMI numbers for manufacturing in the U.S., Europe, China and Brazil have been negative for multiple months. We have already seen an industrial slowdown in Europe, and the same is beginning to appear in the U.S. across several sectors. In China, COVID remains a wildcard and the trajectory of economic recovery is difficult to map.

在 DIY 方面，我們預計通貨膨脹將繼續對美國和歐洲的消費者行為造成壓力。在工業方面，美國、歐洲、中國和巴西的製造業 PMI 數據連續數月為負值。我們已經看到歐洲的工業放緩，美國的多個行業也開始出現同樣的情況。在中國，COVID 仍然是一個未知數，經濟復甦的軌跡難以描繪。

The U.S. housing slowdown will also impact some of our industrial businesses, namely Industrial Wood where we have already seen pressure in Coil, to some extent. Our team fully understands the importance of winning new accounts and growing share of wallet in this environment, and that is where we will be focused.

美國房地產市場放緩也將影響我們的一些工業業務，即工業木材，我們已經在一定程度上看到了卷材的壓力。我們的團隊充分理解在這種環境下贏得新客戶和增加錢包份額的重要性，這也是我們將關注的重點。

From a cadence standpoint, we expect year-over-year sales and earnings performance will be significantly better in the first half than in our second half, driven by several factors. Our total company comparison will be much more favorable in the first half of 2023, as we delivered a very strong second half performance in 2022, where sales were up 13.8% and adjusted earnings per share grew by over 37%.

從節奏的角度來看，我們預計上半年的同比銷售和盈利表現將明顯好於下半年，這受到多種因素的推動。 2023 年上半年，我們對公司的總體比較將更加有利，因為我們在 2022 年下半年的業績非常強勁，銷售額增長 13.8%，調整後每股收益增長超過 37%。

As we've often said, volume is the key driver for operating leverage in our model. In The Americas Group, which is our largest and most profitable segment, our year-over-year volume comparisons are expected to be meaningfully better in the first half versus in the second half based on the trends we are currently seeing.

正如我們常說的那樣，交易量是我們模型中運營槓桿的關鍵驅動力。在美洲集團，這是我們最大和最賺錢的部門，根據我們目前看到的趨勢，我們預計上半年的同比銷量比下半年要好得多。

We also expect more carryover price in the first half of 2023, which will have the full benefit of our September 6, 2022 price increase in TAG as well as prior price increases in the other 2 segments, all of which will annualize in the back half of this year.

我們還預計 2023 年上半年會有更多結轉價格，這將充分受益於我們 2022 年 9 月 6 日的 TAG 價格上漲以及其他 2 個細分市場之前的價格上漲，所有這些都將在下半年年化今年的。

Additionally, we expect new residential sales will hold up better in our first half before very meaningful deceleration of demand in the back half of the year. Acquisitions will also be a tailwind in our first half as we expect incremental sales of approximately $140 million from transactions which closed after July 1 of last year. Given these factors and the softening demand environment, we believe our expectations for the back half of 2023 are tempered appropriately at this time.

此外，我們預計新住宅銷售將在上半年保持更好的表現，然後在今年下半年需求出現非常顯著的減速。收購也將成為我們上半年的順風，因為我們預計去年 7 月 1 日之後完成的交易將增加約 1.4 億美元的銷售額。鑑於這些因素和疲軟的需求環境，我們認為此時我們對 2023 年下半年的預期會適當下調。

As you would expect, we will gain more clarity as the year progresses, and we will provide a more finally tuned view of our second half outlook during our second quarter conference call. As we said on our last call, we anticipate that the demand environment would be challenging in 2023, leading us to get out ahead on cost management with the targeted restructuring we began in the fourth quarter.

正如您所期望的那樣，隨著時間的推移，我們將變得更加清晰，我們將在第二季度電話會議上提供對下半年展望的最終調整觀點。正如我們在上次電話會議上所說，我們預計 2023 年的需求環境將充滿挑戰，這導致我們通過第四季度開始的有針對性的重組在成本管理方面取得領先。

We estimate the annual savings from this effort to be in the $50 million to $70 million range, with about 75% realized by the end of 2023, and we are reaffirming those estimates today. Our outlook also assumes our raw material costs will be down by a low to mid-single-digit percentage in 2023 compared to 2022. We expect to see the largest benefit occurring in the second and third quarters. We expect to see decreases across many commodity categories, though the ranges likely will vary widely.

我們估計這項工作每年可節省 5000 萬至 7000 萬美元，到 2023 年底實現約 75%，我們今天重申這些估計。我們的展望還假設我們的原材料成本在 2023 年將比 2022 年下降一個中低個位數百分比。我們預計第二和第三季度將出現最大的收益。我們預計許多商品類別都會出現下降，但幅度可能會有很大差異。

From an availability standpoint, certain alkyd resins remain a pain point, impacting stains, aerosols and some industrial products. We expect supply of these resins to continue improving through the first half of the year, in part due to ramping of our own internal production. We expect other costs, including wages, energy and transportation to be up in the mid- to high single-digit range.

從可用性的角度來看，某些醇酸樹脂仍然是一個痛點，影響污漬、氣溶膠和一些工業產品。我們預計這些樹脂的供應將在今年上半年繼續改善，部分原因是我們內部產量的增加。我們預計包括工資、能源和交通在內的其他成本將在中高個位數範圍內上漲。

For the first quarter of 2023, we anticipate our consolidated net sales will be flat to up by a mid-single-digit percentage compared to the first quarter of 2022, inclusive of a mid-single-digit price increase. Our sales expectations for the quarter by segment are included in our slide deck. For the full year 2023, we expect consolidated net sales to be flat to down mid-single digits, inclusive of a mid-single-digit price carryover from 2022. Our sales expectations for the year by segment are included in our slide deck.

對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計我們的綜合淨銷售額與 2022 年第一季度相比將持平至中個位數百分比增長，其中包括中個位數價格上漲。我們按部門劃分的季度銷售預期包含在我們的幻燈片中。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計綜合淨銷售額將持平至下降中個位數，包括從 2022 年開始的中個位數價格結轉。我們對各細分市場的年度銷售預期包含在我們的幻燈片中。

We expect diluted net income per share for 2023 to be in the range of $6.79 to $7.59 per share. Full year 2023 earnings per share guidance includes acquisition-related amortization expense of approximately $0.81 per share and includes expense related to our previously announced targeted restructuring actions of approximately $0.25 to $0.35 per share. On an adjusted basis, we expect full year 2023 earnings per share in the range of $7.95 to $8.65. We provided a GAAP reconciliation in the Reg G table within our press release.

我們預計 2023 年的每股攤薄淨收益將在每股 6.79 美元至 7.59 美元之間。 2023 年全年每股收益指引包括與收購相關的攤銷費用，約為每股 0.81 美元，並包括與我們先前宣布的目標重組行動相關的費用，約為每股 0.25 美元至 0.35 美元。在調整後的基礎上，我們預計 2023 年全年每股收益在 7.95 美元至 8.65 美元之間。我們在新聞稿中的 Reg G 表中提供了 GAAP 調節。

Let me close with some additional data points and an update on our capital allocation priorities. Given carryover pricing, raw material deflation and our ongoing continuous improvement initiatives, we would expect full year gross margin expansion. We expect SG&A as a percent of sales to increase in 2023. This is similar to the slowdown in 2008 and 2009, where we continued to invest in long-term solutions for our customers that allowed us to grow at a multiple of the market when demand normalized.

讓我以一些額外的數據點和我們的資本配置優先事項的最新情況作為結束。考慮到結轉定價、原材料通縮和我們正在進行的持續改進計劃，我們預計全年毛利率將擴大。我們預計 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比將在 2023 年增加。這與 2008 年和 2009 年的放緩類似，我們繼續為客戶投資長期解決方案，使我們能夠在需求增長時以倍數增長歸一化。

We'll also control costs tightly in noncustomer-facing functions and execute on our restructuring initiatives. We have a variety of SG&A levers we can pull depending on a material change to our outlook up or down. We expect operating margin to modestly improve year-over-year, excluding restructuring and impairment costs and acquisition-related amortization expense.

我們還將嚴格控制非面向客戶職能的成本，並執行我們的重組計劃。我們有多種 SG&A 槓桿，我們可以根據我們的前景向上或向下的重大變化來拉動。我們預計營業利潤率同比小幅提高，不包括重組和減值成本以及與收購相關的攤銷費用。

While we don't typically provide this level of color, we believe it is helpful to do so this year given the higher level of nonoperating expenses impacting 2023. We expect to open between 80 to 100 new stores in the U.S. and Canada in 2023. We'll also be focused on sales reps, capacity and productivity improvements as well as systems and product innovation. We expect to complete the targeted restructuring actions we announced on our previous call, including the benefits and onetime costs we have outlined.

雖然我們通常不提供這種級別的顏色，但我們認為今年這樣做會有所幫助，因為 2023 年的非運營支出水平會更高。我們預計 2023 年將在美國和加拿大開設 80 至 100 家新店。我們還將關註銷售代表、產能和生產力改進以及系統和產品創新。我們希望完成我們在上次電話會議上宣布的有針對性的重組行動，包括我們概述的收益和一次性成本。

We will continue to simplify and optimize the organization. The Latin American business of The Americas Group is now being managed and reported within the Consumer Brands Group. The change allows TAG leadership to focus more exclusively on its core U.S. and Canada stores business, while the Latin America architectural demand and service model are trending to be more in line with CBG's strategy.

繼續精簡優化機構。美洲集團的拉丁美洲業務現在由消費者品牌集團管理和報告。這一變化使 TAG 領導層能夠更專注於其核心的美國和加拿大門店業務，而拉丁美洲的建築需求和服務模式正趨向於更符合 CBG 的戰略。

This business had sales of approximately $700 million in 2022. The change will be marginally accretive to TAG and marginally dilutive to CBG. You will see this change when we report first quarter results in April. Prior year segment results will be restated at that time to reflect the change. The first quarter and full year guidance for 2023 we communicated today does not reflect this change.

該業務在 2022 年的銷售額約為 7 億美元。這一變化將略微增加 TAG 的收益，並略微稀釋 CBG 的收益。當我們在 4 月份報告第一季度業績時，您會看到這一變化。屆時將重述前一年的分部業績以反映變化。我們今天發布的 2023 年第一季度和全年指導並未反映這一變化。

Next month, at our Board of Directors meeting, we will recommend an annual dividend increase of 0.8% to $2.42 per share, up from $2.40 last year. If approved, this will mark the 45th consecutive year we've increased our dividend. We expect to continue making opportunistic share repurchases. We do not have any long-term debt maturities due in 2023, however, we will reduce short-term debt to trend our adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio towards the high end of our long-term target of 2 to 2.5x.

下個月，在我們的董事會會議上，我們將建議年度股息增加 0.8% 至每股 2.42 美元，高於去年的 2.40 美元。如果獲得批准，這將是我們連續第 45 年增加股息。我們預計將繼續進行機會性股票回購。我們沒有任何 2023 年到期的長期債務，但是，我們將減少短期債務，使調整後的 EBITDA 槓桿率趨向於 2 至 2.5 倍長期目標的高端。

We'll also continue to evaluate acquisitions that fit our strategy. In addition, I will refer you to the slide deck issued with our press release this morning, which provides guidance on our expectations for currency exchange, effective tax rate, CapEx, depreciation and amortization and interest expense.

我們還將繼續評估符合我們戰略的收購。此外，我將向您推薦我們今天上午發布的新聞稿中發布的幻燈片，其中提供了我們對貨幣兌換、有效稅率、資本支出、折舊和攤銷以及利息支出的預期的指導。

Given the many variables at play, limited visibility beyond the first half and the high level of uncertainty in the global economy, we believe our outlook is a realistic one. Our slide deck further outlines the assumptions underlying our guidance and is based on our current dialogue with customers and suppliers and our reading of numerous macro indicators.

考慮到許多變數、上半年之後的可見度有限以及全球經濟的高度不確定性，我們認為我們的前景是現實的。我們的幻燈片進一步概述了我們指導下的假設，並基於我們當前與客戶和供應商的對話以及我們對眾多宏觀指標的解讀。

As we get through our first half and we see more information, those assumptions could change. If those assumptions change for the better, we would expect to do better than the guidance we are laying out today. While we can't defy gravity, we do expect to outperform the market and our competitors in 2023. I'm highly confident in our leadership team, which is deep and experienced and has been through many previous business cycles.

當我們完成上半年並看到更多信息時，這些假設可能會改變。如果這些假設變得更好，我們預計會比我們今天制定的指導做得更好。雖然我們無法抗拒地心引力，但我們確實希望在 2023 年超越市場和我們的競爭對手。我對我們的領導團隊充滿信心，他們經驗豐富，經歷過許多以前的商業周期。

We've transformed our business in many ways since the last significant downturn, and we are now a stronger and a more resilient company. We also know our guidance is clearly reflective of the market pressure we are experiencing. We anticipated 2023 would be challenging. We've planned accordingly. We have and will continue taking appropriate actions.

自上次經濟低迷以來，我們在很多方面改變了我們的業務，現在我們是一家更強大、更有彈性的公司。我們也知道我們的指引清楚地反映了我們正在經歷的市場壓力。我們預計 2023 年將充滿挑戰。我們已經做出了相應的計劃。我們已經並將繼續採取適當的行動。

We expect strong momentum coming out of this period of uncertainty, similar to prior downturns. That momentum will stem from our strategy of providing innovative solutions that help our customers to be more productive and more profitable. In challenging environments like the current one, we can be an even more valuable partner to our customers while we're also earning new ones.

我們預計這段不確定時期會出現強勁勢頭，類似於之前的低迷期。這種勢頭將源於我們提供創新解決方案的戰略，幫助我們的客戶提高生產力和利潤。在像當前這樣充滿挑戰的環境中，我們可以成為客戶更有價值的合作夥伴，同時我們也可以贏得新客戶。

This concludes our prepared remarks. With that, I'd like to thank you for joining us this morning, and we'll be happy to take your questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。有了這個，我要感謝你今天早上加入我們，我們很樂意回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) our first question is coming from Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Christopher Parkinson。

On Slide 8, you have some pretty helpful framework, specifically on TAG volumes. John, obviously, you've been discussing this for a while, but can you just talk about the differences, obviously, what you're seeing in the new resi side, which is a little bit smaller, but what you're hearing from your team regarding the pent-up demand on the resi repaint side, how you feel about that versus a quarter, 6 months ago and how that shapes up throughout 2023?

在幻燈片 8 上，您有一些非常有用的框架，特別是在 TAG 卷上。約翰，很明顯，你已經討論了一段時間了，但你能不能談談不同之處，很明顯，你在新的 resi 方面看到了什麼，它有點小，但你從中聽到了什麼您的團隊關於 resi 重塗方面被壓抑的需求，與 6 個月前的一個季度相比，您對此有何看法，以及整個 2023 年的情況如何？

Sure, Chris. I'll start with new residential. And what I'll do is I'll talk a little bit about new res and I'll hand it over to Heidi to talk a little bit about her view. She's obviously working closely with her teams, and then I'll pick back up on res repaint, will the same.

當然，克里斯。我將從新住宅開始。我要做的是談談新資源，然後我會把它交給海蒂談談她的觀點。她顯然正在與她的團隊密切合作，然後我會重新開始重新粉刷，同樣如此。

New res, I would start with a very important fact that over the last 10 years, we've had a 10-year compounded growth rate of about 10.5%. So this has been an area of focus for us, and it's one where we have, I think, clearly demonstrated significant success, and we are determined to continue to drive that success.

新資源，我將從一個非常重要的事實開始，即在過去 10 年中，我們的 10 年復合增長率約為 10.5%。因此，這一直是我們關注的一個領域，我認為，這是我們已經取得顯著成功的領域，我們決心繼續推動這一成功。

Permits and starts are down, as we all know, and our relationships with our national builders are strong and getting stronger. There's a lot going on, and we're working closely with them. Heidi, why don't I give that to you? And maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're working on, on the new residential side?

眾所周知，許可證和開工率都在下降，我們與國家建設者的關係很牢固，而且越來越牢固。發生了很多事情，我們正在與他們密切合作。海蒂，我為什麼不把它給你？也許你可以談談你在新住宅方面的工作？

Yes, sure. No, I think the last 10 years that John refers to has really put us in a strong position in new res, and we have every intention of aggressively pursuing share gains, especially during what we will consider to be pretty choppy waters ahead. We're going to continue to focus on growing our exclusive relationships, and I would expect that we're going to add to an already strong percentage of mutually beneficial exclusive relationships.

是的，當然。不，我認為約翰提到的過去 10 年確實讓我們在新資源中處於有利地位，我們完全有意積極追求份額增長，尤其是在我們認為未來波濤洶湧的水域中。我們將繼續專注於發展我們的排他性關係，我希望我們將增加已經很高比例的互利排他性關係。

For example, we look at our partnerships here pretty broadly and these builders that we're working with. It's really allowing us to collaborate on areas such as reducing complexity, simplification and importantly, execution in utilizing our store platform, our technology, our supply chain and also importantly, our technical teams. We're really partnering to help these builders to respond to today's challenges and really helping them to reach their goals.

例如，我們在這裡非常廣泛地看待我們的合作夥伴關係以及我們正在與之合作的這些建設者。它真的讓我們能夠在降低複雜性、簡化等領域進行合作，重要的是，利用我們的商店平台、我們的技術、我們的供應鏈以及我們的技術團隊來執行。我們真正合作幫助這些建設者應對當今的挑戰並真正幫助他們實現目標。

So ultimately, reducing complexity may assist in their efforts to drive efficiency and productivity, and new products really play the key role in that to help assist during some of these challenging times. For example, we're going to be introducing extreme build -- an extreme high build interior latex. And in a segment that's going to be under pressure, you may be asking yourself why we're bringing new products. But to be truthful, this is where we do help our customers win.

因此，最終，降低複雜性可能有助於他們努力提高效率和生產力，而新產品確實在這方面發揮了關鍵作用，有助於在這些充滿挑戰的時期提供幫助。例如，我們將推出 extreme build——一種極高構造的內部乳膠。在一個將面臨壓力的細分市場中，您可能會問自己為什麼我們要推出新產品。但說實話，這正是我們幫助客戶獲勝的地方。

This extreme high build lets the contractor build 8 to 12 mils wet film thickness versus the more conventional 4 to 6 mils. So you can imagine, just minimizing surface imperfections and excellent touch ups, especially in an environment where labor is a challenge and an issue for these drywallers and painters. This product is helping to hide the sins of what I would call maybe less experienced drywallers and really improve the speed for painters.

這種極高的構造使承包商能夠構建 8 至 12 密耳的濕膜厚度，而更傳統的濕膜厚度為 4 至 6 密耳。所以你可以想像，只要盡量減少表面缺陷和出色的修飾，尤其是在勞動力是挑戰和這些石膏板工人和油漆工的問題的環境中。該產品有助於隱藏我稱之為經驗不足的干牆工人的錯誤，並真正提高油漆工的速度。

So essentially, everyone is winning here. So you can kind of ask what to expect. John mentioned this earlier, the rate increases will pressure our builders, and we will grow share, but we were not going to be immune to the impact of these rates. We're going to respond to these changes, and I would expect that our builders will do the same. They might adjust floor plans. Many are looking at standardization, but no one will respond like Sherwin-Williams.

所以基本上，每個人都在這裡贏了。所以你可以問一下會發生什麼。約翰早些時候提到過，加息會給我們的建築商帶來壓力，我們會增加份額，但我們不會免受這些加息的影響。我們將對這些變化做出回應，我希望我們的建設者也會這樣做。他們可能會調整平面圖。許多人都在關注標準化，但沒有人會像宣偉那樣做出回應。

We're going to take this expertise. We're going to aggressively go to builders that may have relationships with some of our competition, and we're going to demonstrate these capabilities in a way that will allow us to grow share. So while in the short term, we'll likely feel pressured. We like the favorable demographics. The existing housing shortage gives us a great deal of confidence that our strong and growing position in new res will benefit our shareholders.

我們將利用這種專業知識。我們將積極尋找可能與我們的一些競爭對手有關係的建築商，我們將以一種能讓我們擴大份額的方式展示這些能力。因此，在短期內，我們可能會感到壓力。我們喜歡有利的人口統計數據。目前的住房短缺讓我們充滿信心，相信我們在新資源方面的強大且不斷增長的地位將使我們的股東受益。

So we look at this strong business through both a short and long-term lens. I would say in the short term, given our success and our position in the market, and we may over-index right now while we're working through some of the short-term choppiness, but in the long term, make no mistake, we do believe that this is in our best interest to continue to pursue these important gallons.

因此，我們從短期和長期的角度來看待這個強大的業務。我會說，在短期內，鑑於我們的成功和我們在市場上的地位，我們現在可能會在克服一些短期動盪時過度指數化，但從長遠來看，請不要誤會，我們確實相信，繼續追求這些重要的加侖燃料符合我們的最佳利益。

I think maybe just 1 more point or 2 points maybe on new res, Chris. To Heidi's point, I think our relationships with the new residential contractors, they're reaching new highs. I mean we're collaborating and working together. She mentioned one of the new products that we're introducing. I think there's a steady stream of introductions of not only products, but services and collaboration that we think really helps us help our customers.

我想也許只有 1 分或 2 分可能在新資源上，克里斯。就海蒂而言，我認為我們與新住宅承包商的關係正在達到新高。我的意思是我們正在合作並一起工作。她提到了我們正在推出的一種新產品。我認為不僅有源源不斷的產品介紹，還有我們認為真正幫助我們幫助客戶的服務和協作。

And the other point Heidi is really driving with her team, Justin Binns, our Group President of our TAG business, is really taking this terrific work in products and services beyond the large national homebuilders and even driving that down further into the regional builders, where there is terrific opportunity for growth. And so while we expect there will be choppiness in the new residential, and I think it's important to say this beyond just new residential.

另一點，Heidi 真正與她的團隊一起推動，我們 TAG 業務的集團總裁 Justin Binns 確實將這項出色的產品和服務工作帶到了大型全國住宅建築商之外，甚至進一步推動了區域建築商的發展，在那裡有很好的增長機會。因此，雖然我們預計新住宅會出現波動，但我認為重要的是說這不僅僅是新住宅。

We're not just reporting things are tough and woe is us. That's not who we are. We expect it's going to be tough, and we're going to come out fighting and swinging aggressively. And so yes, we do well with a lot of the large national homebuilders. We're going to be fighting like crazy after these regionals and other customers that we don't have. We expect new residential, if you look at some of the information that's out there, to be down in the 20% to 30% range. That's not what we're expecting for our business.

我們不只是報告事情很艱難，我們有禍了。那不是我們。我們預計這將是艱難的，我們將出來戰鬥並積極搖擺。所以是的，我們與許多大型全國房屋建築商合作良好。在這些我們沒有的地區和其他客戶之後，我們將瘋狂地戰鬥。我們預計新住宅，如果你看看那裡的一些信息，會下降 20% 到 30% 的範圍。這不是我們對業務的期望。

That's what we see in housing starts. So actually, what we're saying is that the homebuilders are posting some of them in the 20% to 30% range. We expect to outperform that and bring in a much better number than that. But we'll feel the pressure. We get really quick to the res repaint side, and we won't go through each of the segments with such depth.

這就是我們在新屋開工中看到的情況。所以實際上，我們所說的是房屋建築商將其中一些發佈在 20% 到 30% 的範圍內。我們希望能超越它，並帶來比這更好的數字。但我們會感到壓力。我們真的很快就到了 res 重繪方面，我們不會如此深入地遍歷每個片段。

But I do think that, Chris, your point is -- your question is right on point, given the headlines, if you will, that these 2 segments will play for us this year. In residential repaint, we would say that while we continue to grow, and again, another area of focus, over 10 years, our compounded growth here has been 11% -- a little over 11.5%. We do expect to see some deceleration in the annual gains.

但我確實認為，克里斯，你的觀點是 - 你的問題是正確的，考慮到頭條新聞，如果你願意的話，這兩個部分將在今年為我們發揮作用。在住宅重新粉刷方面，我們會說，在我們繼續增長的同時，又是另一個重點領域，10 多年來，我們在這裡的複合增長率為 11%——略高於 11.5%。我們確實預計年度收益會有所放緩。

If you look at the LIRA and the NAHB projections, they are positive, but at a decelerated rate largely tied to existing home sales. But this is also an area where people continue to invest. Painting remains a relatively inexpensive investment but a very impactful project. That, along with the aging housing stock and home price appreciation, we think, will have a positive effect on this business.

如果你看一下 LIRA 和 NAHB 的預測，它們是積極的，但減速主要與現有房屋銷售有關。但這也是人們持續投資的領域。繪畫仍然是一項相對便宜的投資，但卻是一個非常有影響力的項目。我們認為，隨著住房存量老化和房價上漲，這將對這項業務產生積極影響。

But Heidi, maybe you could talk a little bit about res repaint, and some of the work you and your team are driving there.

但是 Heidi，也許你可以談談 res repaint，以及你和你的團隊在那裡進行的一些工作。

Yes. [Apart from] the fact that we've built really strong momentum here, I think this is certainly not by chance, but by design, continuing to develop innovative products. John referenced some of the services, innovative solutions to differentiate ourselves and we couldn't do it without our incredible team. Our managers, our reps, they play an extremely significant role in all segments, but I would argue in the res repaint segment, which really responds well to our high-touch personal service really can help to differentiate our model.

是的。 [除了]我們在這裡建立了非常強勁的勢頭這一事實，我認為這當然不是偶然的，而是通過設計，繼續開發創新產品。 John 引用了一些服務和創新解決方案來區分我們自己，如果沒有我們令人難以置信的團隊，我們無法做到這一點。我們的經理，我們的代表，他們在所有領域都發揮著極其重要的作用，但我認為在重新粉刷領域，它對我們的高接觸個人服務反應很好，確實有助於使我們的模型脫穎而出。

We often talk about our secret weapon is our people, and I think clearly on display is we're helping our customers navigate through unprecedented challenges for them as well and challenges such as labor, with res repaint, our full product line really allows contractors to step up in quality, helping to compensate for some less experienced applicators.

我們經常談論我們的秘密武器是我們的員工，我想清楚地展示了我們正在幫助我們的客戶應對他們面臨的前所未有的挑戰以及勞動力等挑戰，通過重新粉刷，我們的完整產品線確實允許承包商提高質量，幫助彌補一些經驗不足的塗抹器。

And as we continue to see our customers do step up in quality, the results are clear that they are becoming more successful. And we're helping them prepare for some choppiness ahead, I would say, in addition to the whole product line, preparing for some new substrates.

隨著我們繼續看到我們的客戶確實提高了質量，結果很明顯他們正在變得更加成功。我們正在幫助他們為未來的一些動盪做準備，我想說，除了整個產品線之外，還要為一些新的基板做準備。

I'll give you an example here. In homes where our res repainters are painting, we're in the midst of rolling out a new kitchen cabinet refinish paint product. So if you think of the homeowners that are affected by certainly higher costs and not willing to replace entire cabinet systems but willing to refinish their existing cabinets, we're helping contractors to serve these clients with some profitable solutions.

我在這裡給你舉個例子。在我們的 res 油漆工正在油漆的房屋中，我們正在推出一種新的廚櫃修補漆產品。因此，如果您認為房主肯定會受到更高成本的影響，並且不願意更換整個櫥櫃系統但願意重新裝修他們現有的櫥櫃，那麼我們正在幫助承包商為這些客戶提供一些有利可圖的解決方案。

So amongst our new products, we're going to be introducing a self-cleaning exterior WoodScapes stain as well for the exterior, which I just mentioned. So each and every rain will have a home looking freshly painted. So literally, the dirt will wash away with every rain, which is a pretty incredible technology, and will look like a newly painted home.

因此，在我們的新產品中，我們將推出一種自清潔外部 WoodScapes 污漬以及我剛才提到的外部。因此，每場雨都會讓房屋看起來煥然一新。所以從字面上看，每次下雨都會沖走污垢，這是一項非常不可思議的技術，而且看起來就像新粉刷過的房子。

So our position in res repaint continues to improve. In fact, we continue to not only grow share but accelerate some of these share gains. So while the bid activity has adjusted, overall, it's still strong. Our average job size is increasing, and our focus continues to be and will be on new accounts and share of wallet.

所以我們在res repaint的地位不斷提高。事實上，我們不僅繼續增加份額，而且還在加速其中一些份額的增長。因此，雖然出價活動有所調整，但總體而言，它仍然很強勁。我們的平均工作規模正在增加，我們的重點將繼續並將放在新賬戶和錢包份額上。

Just picking up the last point there is a good one. The quality of the leads in the bids, it seems like listening to a majority of our customers that while some of the bid activity may have tempered down a bit, the quality of the leads are actually increasing and the scope is actually increasing. So they're doing more there.

只要拿起最後一點，就有一個很好的。投標中潛在客戶的質量，似乎聽取了我們大多數客戶的意見，雖然一些投標活動可能有所緩和，但潛在客戶的質量實際上在提高，範圍實際上在增加。所以他們在那裡做得更多。

And as she mentioned, we're trying to help them with projects like expanding into cabinets, introducing opportunities in garage floors and a lot of different areas. So even taking some of those new residential contractors that may have been primarily focused on new residential and helping them get into residential repaint. So we're really partnering very well with our customers to help drive their success and their profitability.

正如她所提到的，我們正在努力幫助他們開展諸如擴展到櫥櫃、在車庫地板和許多不同領域引入機會等項目。因此，甚至聘請了一些可能主要專注於新住宅的新住宅承包商，並幫助他們進行住宅重新粉刷。因此，我們確實與客戶建立了良好的合作夥伴關係，以幫助推動他們的成功和盈利能力。

So Chris, great question on those 2 segments. We think those are 2 really important segments for us going into 2023.

所以克里斯，關於這兩個部分的好問題。我們認為這對我們進入 2023 年來說是兩個非常重要的部分。

Your next question is coming from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

So you're expecting raw materials to decline in the low to mid-single-digit range in '23. Is this based off of spot pricing for petrochems as you see it today? Does this incorporate expectations for some incremental deflation in spot prices as we move through the year? I'm just asking because the petrochem futures are kind of bouncing around right now, and I'm just trying to understand how you expect the spot market to play out and what's embedded in the guidance.

因此，您預計原材料在 23 年將下降到中低個位數範圍。這是基於您今天看到的石化產品的現貨定價嗎？這是否包含了隨著我們今年的推移，現貨價格會出現一些增量通貨緊縮的預期？我只是問，因為石化期貨現在有點反彈，我只是想了解您對現貨市場的預期如何發揮作用以及指導中包含的內容。

Yes. Truman, I'd begin by telling you that we called out here, we've seen a sequential decrease in our third quarter into our fourth quarter and we're expecting that trend to continue. In our first quarter, we're kind of expecting the basket to be flat to slightly up, and you'll see a bigger benefit as the year goes on.

是的。杜魯門，我首先要告訴你，我們在這裡呼籲，我們已經看到第三季度到第四季度的連續下降，我們預計這種趨勢將繼續下去。在我們的第一季度，我們有點期待籃子持平到略有上升，隨著時間的推移，你會看到更大的好處。

To your point, key feedstocks like propylene, they have started to come down pretty meaningfully significantly. And eventually, it's going to find its way even more into the resins and the solvents that we buy. And that's starting to happen. We buy some of our raw materials on spot prices, so we can take advantage of that where it makes sense, and we have some on contract.

就您的觀點而言，像丙烯這樣的主要原料，它們已經開始大幅下降。最終，它將更多地用於我們購買的樹脂和溶劑中。這正在開始發生。我們以現貨價格購買一些原材料，因此我們可以在有意義的地方利用它，而且我們有一些合同。

I think what you also have to look at, though, is that as we look across the entire basket, each commodity really has some dynamics associated with it. So while we're expecting down low singles to mid-singles for the basket, there's really a wide range across those different products that we buy. Some are better than that range and some are worse.

不過，我認為你還必須注意的是，當我們審視整個籃子時，每種商品確實都有一些與之相關的動態。因此，雖然我們期望籃子中的低單打到中單打，但我們購買的這些不同產品的範圍確實很廣。有些好於該範圍，有些則更差。

And I think you're also seeing -- in addition to that, you're seeing input costs like energy and wages, which are very volatile. Those are also putting some pressure right now. So I think the takeaway would be you can expect us to continue working very closely with our suppliers to bring those costs in line with the industry demand levels, and that also reflects our position in the marketplace.

而且我認為你也看到了——除此之外，你還看到了能源和工資等投入成本，這些成本非常不穩定。這些現在也施加了一些壓力。所以我認為外賣是你可以期望我們繼續與我們的供應商密切合作，使這些成本符合行業需求水平，這也反映了我們在市場中的地位。

Okay. And then when you mentioned the lead demand indicators, could you just -- what are those? Could you run through some of those? And then you mentioned that you have a little bit less visibility into the back half of the year. I guess how is today maybe a little bit different than prior periods outside of just general uncertainty in the economy?

好的。然後當你提到領先需求指標時，你能不能——那些是什麼？你能通過其中的一些嗎？然後你提到你對今年下半年的了解有點少。我想除了經濟的普遍不確定性之外，今天可能與以往有何不同？

Well, I'll talk about the indicators that you mentioned, Truman. They're the ones that we've cited for many, many years on our analyst days and our calls, so you heard a couple of them here on the res repaint side, the LIRA remodeling index, existing home sales on the new res, obviously, it's permits and starts. Commercial, there's a couple of different ones.

那麼，我將談談你提到的指標，杜魯門。它們是我們在分析師日和電話會議上引用了很多很多年的數據，所以你在這裡聽到了一些關於重新粉刷、LIRA 重塑指數、新 res 的現有房屋銷售，顯然，它是許可和啟動。商業的，有幾個不同的。

If you look on the industrial side, John, in his remarks, cited the PMI numbers, which have not been trending very well at all. So it's those kind of external indicators married with obviously the real-time feedback we have from our customers and our -- it's one of the advantages of our direct distribution model.

如果你看看工業方面，John 在他的評論中引用了 PMI 數據，這些數據的趨勢根本不是很好。因此，這些外部指標顯然與我們從客戶和我們那裡獲得的實時反饋結合在一起——這是我們直接分銷模式的優勢之一。

And on the second half, Truman, I would say that the view of the first quarter, first half versus the back half, I think it's -- you can attribute that to a very fluid and changing market. Interest rates are moving up. Housing starts are adjusting accordingly. Quite honestly, in times like this, the flux in the market, and this is my 38 years of experience talking here as well is that the contractors vary in their ability to anticipate what's happening.

在下半場，杜魯門，我想說的是第一季度的觀點，上半場與後半場，我認為 - 你可以將其歸因於一個非常流動和變化的市場。利率正在上升。房屋開工率正在相應調整。老實說，在這樣的時候，市場的變化，這也是我在這裡談論 38 年的經驗，是承包商預測正在發生的事情的能力各不相同。

Some of them will look at their short-term book and believe that everything is okay. We're working with those contractors to help them understand some of the pressures that are coming down the pipe. So some of what we leverage, our own controlled CRM that we have developed, the fact that we've got almost 5,000 store managers and nearly 4,000 sales reps that feed a great deal of our understanding of the market.

他們中的一些人會看著他們的短期書，並相信一切都很好。我們正在與這些承包商合作，幫助他們了解正在下降的一些壓力。因此，我們利用的一些東西，我們自己開發的受控 CRM，事實上我們有近 5,000 名商店經理和近 4,000 名銷售代表，這些都豐富了我們對市場的了解。

At this time, there's a little bit of a disconnect in that because some of our customers are feeling perhaps more bullish than we think that they should feel. Others are tied to other areas such as new residential, and they understand what the pipeline looks like. So when we talk about the visibility that we have in the first half, it's tied more towards the bids and contracts that our customers have in hand. It gives us more confidence.

目前，這有點脫節，因為我們的一些客戶感覺可能比我們認為他們應該感覺到的更樂觀。其他人與新住宅等其他領域有聯繫，他們了解管道的樣子。因此，當我們談論上半年的知名度時，它更多地與我們客戶手頭的投標和合同有關。它給了我們更多的信心。

And that's why, as we mentioned in my prepared remarks, as we get through the first half, we'll reevaluate. I want to be very clear, we won't be adjusting our earnings forecast after the first quarter. We expect to have a very good first quarter, but we're going to wait and see as we get through the second quarter what the balance of the year looks like. Once we have that better visibility, we'll speak to our investors as to what to expect going forward.

這就是為什麼，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的，當我們度過上半年時，我們將重新評估。我想非常清楚，我們不會在第一季度後調整我們的盈利預測。我們預計第一季度會有一個非常好的結果，但我們將拭目以待，等我們度過第二季度後，今年的餘額會是什麼樣子。一旦我們有了更好的知名度，我們就會與我們的投資者討論未來會發生什麼。

But I would also add is, as we've come through COVID and some of the shortages that we've had in the market, we've become much closer with our customers. It was one of the benefits of the challenges that we've had. And so we believe we'll come out of this with a better line of sight as that relationship has improved dramatically, and it was already strong. But I think that as we get through the second quarter, we'll have a better line of sight.

但我還要補充的是，隨著我們經歷了 COVID 和市場上的一些短缺，我們與客戶的關係變得更加緊密。這是我們所面臨的挑戰的好處之一。因此，我們相信，隨著這種關係得到顯著改善，並且已經很牢固，我們會以更好的視角擺脫困境。但我認為當我們度過第二季度時，我們會有更好的視線。

Your next question is coming from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess on Performance Coatings Group, can you just give us a sense as to what you're embedding for volume expectations by the subsegments, Auto Refinish, all the way through? That would be super helpful.

我想在 Performance Coatings Group 上，您能告訴我們您為子細分市場、汽車修補漆，一直以來的體積預期嵌入了什麼嗎？那將非常有幫助。

Well, on refinish, I'd say there's a high demand here, coupled with a shortage of [body types] and parts contributed to shot backlogs. We're working through a backlog of demand ourselves as we're securing more and more raw materials. As you work through some of these challenges, Ghansham, as you know, when there's a shortage of raw materials, the bottleneck moves through the process.

好吧，關於修補，我想說這裡的需求很高，加上[車身類型]和零件的短缺導致了鏡頭積壓。隨著我們獲得越來越多的原材料，我們正在努力解決積壓的需求。正如你所知，當你克服其中一些挑戰時，Ghansham，當原材料短缺時，瓶頸就會在整個過程中移動。

So as we do get, which is a team effort at Sherwin, we're squeezing more and more raw materials and availability, that's improving, and we're trying to get more and more of the product out as a result of that. But as you look at automotive refinish, we're really pleased with the gains that we've gained, and we expect that to continue.

因此，正如我們所做的那樣，這是 Sherwin 的團隊努力，我們正在擠壓越來越多的原材料和可用性，這正在改善，因此我們正試圖獲得越來越多的產品。但是當你看汽車修補漆時，我們對我們所獲得的收益感到非常滿意，我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。

I'd say our Packaging had a terrific year. Year-to-date, we finished the year in the mid-teens. That was on top of a year last year in the high 20s, so tough comparisons. We're gaining a lot of share here. We're investing in capacity as fast as we've added capacity and add capacity. It's sold out. So the faster we can get that capacity up and running, the business will grow at an even faster rate.

我想說我們的包裝度過了非常棒的一年。年初至今，我們在十幾歲的時候結束了這一年。這是去年高出 20 多歲的一年，所以很難比較。我們在這裡獲得了很多份額。我們投資產能的速度與我們增加產能和增加產能的速度一樣快。賣完了。因此，我們越快啟動和運行該容量，業務就會以更快的速度增長。

Our Coil business, this is 7 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth here. Insight here that you're asking for, I'd say our North America end markets seem to be softening a bit. APAC, soft demand. And real estate market is limiting our extrusion business there, and EMEA, some pretty substantial declines as major coaters in EMEA have shut down lines as a result of the demand.

我們的線圈業務，這是連續 7 個季度實現兩位數增長。你在這裡要求的洞察力，我會說我們的北美終端市場似乎有點疲軟。亞太地區，需求疲軟。房地產市場限制了我們在那里和 EMEA 的擠壓業務，由於 EMEA 的主要塗層商因需求而關閉生產線，因此出現了相當大的下滑。

Our General Industrial business, another strong year. And again, here, there are terrific opportunities within these segments. The heavy equipment market is very strong, and we expect that to continue into 2023, particularly in the ag and construction. Appliance manufacturers are appearing to slow down production as inventories get reset.

我們的通用工業業務又是一個強勁的一年。同樣，在這裡，這些細分市場中存在著巨大的機會。重型設備市場非常強勁，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年，尤其是在農業和建築領域。隨著庫存重置，家電製造商似乎正在放慢生產速度。

Transportation and building products, I would say, are slowing down a bit. The Industrial Wood -- our Industrial Wood business is one that is tied to housing in many ways. If you look at kitchen cabinets, flooring, furniture, as I mentioned, they had a tougher quarter and were down slightly for the year.

運輸和建築產品，我想說，正在放緩一點。工業木材——我們的工業木材業務在很多方面都與住房息息相關。如果你看看廚櫃、地板、家具，正如我提到的那樣，它們有一個更艱難的季度，並且全年略有下降。

We've been investing in this business because we believe in our strategy. We've made a couple of acquisitions and have been open with the investors I've met with to tell them exactly that when we see these opportunities, we're a 156-year-old company. We're investing in this accordingly. We're not trying to win a week or a month or a quarter. We're investing long term.

我們一直在投資這項業務，因為我們相信我們的戰略。我們進行了幾次收購，並向我會見的投資者坦誠地告訴他們，當我們看到這些機會時，我們是一家擁有 156 年曆史的公司。我們正在相應地投資於此。我們並不想贏得一周、一個月或一個季度的勝利。我們正在長期投資。

That confidence in our teams in each one of these segments, terrific leadership at the group level, Karl Jorgenrud, and we've got a lot of confidence that this is going to be a key driver for our business coming out of the choppiness and that we'll grow share during these choppy times. So it's really what we expect in the market. And again, we don't report. We influence. We're going to outperform the market in each of these segments, we believe.

對我們在每個細分市場中的團隊的信心，在集團層面的出色領導，Karl Jorgenrud，我們非常有信心這將成為我們業務擺脫動蕩的關鍵驅動力，而且在這些動盪時期，我們將增加份額。所以這確實是我們在市場上所期望的。再一次，我們不報告。我們影響。我們相信，我們將在每個細分市場中跑贏市場。

Terrific. And then as it relates to TAG and kind of going back to your prepared comments and your characterization of the world we have today. I mean, obviously, interest rates, having spiked over the last year, are having an impact on the housing ecosystem, including you.

了不起。然後，因為它與 TAG 相關，並且有點回到您準備好的評論和您對我們今天所擁有的世界的描述。我的意思是，很明顯，利率在去年飆升，正在對包括您在內的住房生態系統產生影響。

What would change the calculus of that? Is it just as simple as the reversal of interest rates? And I'm just trying to reconcile the fact that interest rates have pulled back pretty substantially since October.

什麼會改變它的演算？是不是就跟利率反轉一樣簡單？我只是想調和利率自 10 月以來大幅回落的事實。

Yes, it's a good question. I think you should expect us, first -- I want to be very clear, not waiting for the market to lift all the boats. I mean we're going to go really aggressively here, Ghansham. I would say that -- let me be careful in the words that I choose, but I would say I wouldn't want to compete with our team. These people are really well focused on the opportunities that we have. Yes, it will be impacted by housing starts, resale. We've got a terrific business in our property maintenance.

是的，這是個好問題。我認為你應該首先期待我們——我想非常清楚，而不是等待市場解除所有船隻。我的意思是我們要在這裡非常積極地去，Ghansham。我要說的是——讓我謹慎選擇措詞，但我會說我不想與我們的團隊競爭。這些人非常關注我們所擁有的機會。是的，它會受到房屋開工、轉售的影響。我們的財產維護業務非常棒。

We've always talked about kind of the table preparing from a strategic standpoint or which whatever way the table will tilt, and here in this environment, as the rates work their way through, if it's in residential repaint, you're going to see us outperform in residential repaint. If it's in property maintenance where people are going into multifamily homes as opposed to building homes, we're the leader there.

我們一直在討論從戰略角度準備的桌子類型，或者桌子將以何種方式傾斜，在這種環境下，隨著費率的提高，如果是住宅重新粉刷，你會看到我們在住宅重新粉刷方面表現出色。如果是在人們進入多戶住宅而不是建造房屋的財產維護領域，我們就是那裡的領導者。

And the same point on property maintenance as new res. We've done exceptionally well on a national standpoint. We're really cranking in after the regionals. This is the opportunity we have. We have competitors that are backing off because of some of the pressure in some of these segments. And we're going to go -- we're going to be aggressive. I'll just leave it there. We're going to be very aggressive in the regional pieces as well.

與新資源的物業維護相同。從國家的角度來看，我們做得非常好。我們真的在追趕地區性賽事。這是我們的機會。由於某些細分市場的壓力，我們的競爭對手正在退縮。我們要走了——我們要積極進取。我會把它留在那裡。我們也將在區域部分非常積極。

Ghansham, this is Al Mistysyn. The only thing I would add to that, to your point, interest rates bounced around. And just like we talked about, as interest rates rose, it takes time to filter through the market and specifically into paint. So if you think about paint, we're always at the end of the project.

Ghansham，我是 Al Mistysyn。對於你的觀點，我唯一要補充的是，利率反彈。就像我們談到的那樣，隨著利率上升，需要時間來過濾市場，特別是油漆。所以如果你考慮油漆，我們總是在項目的最後。

So even if starts flip today, you're talking 3 to 4 months out, assuming no supply chain challenges before we get to our part of that project. And those are the things that we'll keep monitoring and pushing on with our teams to make sure we're gaining an outsized portion of the share as it returns.

因此，即使今天開始翻轉，假設在我們進入該項目的一部分之前沒有供應鏈挑戰，您也需要 3 到 4 個月的時間。這些是我們將繼續監控並與我們的團隊一起推動的事情，以確保我們在回報時獲得很大一部分份額。

One additional point. I'll go back to Heidi's comment about our over-indexing a bit in new residential. We've done very well here. And so as those points that Al just made, as housing starts begin, while there will be a lag, we'll see the benefit of that in a considerable way. And when it's down, we'll feel it perhaps a little bit more.

加一分。我會回到海蒂關於我們在新住宅中過度索引的評論。我們在這裡做得很好。因此，正如 Al 剛剛提出的那些觀點，隨著房屋開工的開始，雖然會有滯後，但我們將在很大程度上看到它的好處。當它下降時，我們可能會感覺到更多一點。

Your next question is coming from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

John, in TAG, are you thinking about additional price increases this year?

TAG 的 John，您是否考慮今年進一步提價？

Why don't I start with that, and Al, if I miss anything, jump in here. I'd say that, David, our view as it relates to pricing is always looking at total cost of the basket, not just raw materials, but everything from labor, transportation, containers, everything that goes into that.

為什麼我不從這裡開始呢？Al，如果我遺漏了什麼，請跳到這裡。我要說的是，大衛，我們對定價的看法總是著眼於籃子的總成本，不僅僅是原材料，還有從勞動力、運輸、集裝箱到其中的一切。

And right now, I would say, we've not announced any additional pricing. I think we've demonstrated the ability, desire and conviction to stay on top of that and the willingness to do that. So if, in fact, we find ourselves in that situation where we need additional pricing, the first people that will hear about it will be our customers, and then we'll quickly advise The Street of our actions.

現在，我想說，我們還沒有宣布任何額外的定價。我認為我們已經展示了保持領先地位的能力、願望和信念，以及這樣做的意願。因此，如果實際上我們發現自己處於需要額外定價的情況，那麼首先會聽到的人將是我們的客戶，然後我們會迅速將我們的行動告知華爾街。

Yes. David, the only thing I would add, just to put some color around 2023 on pricing in general. We talked about on our third quarter call that if we had no additional pricing, we'd expect a mid-single-digit impact on our full year '23. Obviously, that would be a little bit higher in our first quarter.

是的。大衛，我唯一要補充的是，只是為了在 2023 年左右為一般定價添加一些顏色。我們在第三季度的電話會議上談到，如果我們沒有額外的定價，我們預計對 23 年全年的影響將達到中個位數。顯然，在我們的第一季度，這個數字會高一點。

Our expectation is we're going to maintain the majority of our price like we've seen in the past. We think we've gotten past the margin contraction portion of that cycle. We're starting to see margin improvement sequentially and year-over-year, and we expect that to continue going into 2023.

我們的期望是我們將像過去看到的那樣維持大部分價格。我們認為我們已經度過了那個週期的利潤率收縮部分。我們開始看到利潤率環比和同比有所改善，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年。

Very good. And Al, do you still expect production this year to be below volume sell-through? And so how much -- what's the dollar impact on earnings here?

非常好。還有 Al，您是否仍預計今年的產量會低於銷量？那麼有多少 - 美元對這裡的收益有什麼影響？

Yes. I don't know we're going to quantify the dollar impact, but because we had to build so much inventory in 2022 to get back to more historic levels, and we are going to see a negative impact, and you could think about -- and I talked about this. We'd expect a 5% to 7% decline in production gallons specifically on architectural.

是的。我不知道我們要量化美元的影響，但因為我們必須在 2022 年建立如此多的庫存才能回到更多的歷史水平，我們將看到負面影響，你可以考慮 - - 我談到了這個。我們預計生產加侖數將下降 5% 至 7%，特別是在建築方面。

We are definitely expecting to see that. And that will have a drag when we look at Consumer Brands Group because that's where our global supply chain is embedded. So you're not going to see as much margin dollar improvement just for that very fact, all else being equal.

我們絕對期待看到這一點。當我們審視 Consumer Brands Group 時，這將受到拖累，因為這是我們全球供應鏈的嵌入地。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，您不會僅僅因為這個事實而看到那麼多的保證金美元改善。

Your next question is coming from Adam Baumgarten from Zelman.

你的下一個問題來自 Zelman 的 Adam Baumgarten。

I'm just curious. You mentioned in the slides some inventory destocking in the North America retail channel, it seems like. Are you seeing any destocking outside of that channel, perhaps maybe some of your OEM customers?

我只是好奇。你在幻燈片中提到了北美零售渠道的一些庫存去庫存，看起來是這樣。您是否看到該渠道以外的任何去庫存，也許是您的一些 OEM 客戶？

No. Most of our OEM customers operate on a very low min/max level. So they're leaning on us to be responsive for them. So while some would have inventory, I'd say that they lean on us, and we support that as a means of helping them to be successful.

沒有。我們的大多數 OEM 客戶都在非常低的最小/最大水平上運行。所以他們依靠我們對他們做出回應。因此，雖然有些人會有庫存，但我會說他們依賴我們，我們支持將其作為幫助他們取得成功的一種方式。

Yes. And the only thing I would add to that, on the retail channel side, I think coming out of the third quarter, you heard some of our peers talk about destocking. We did not see that. So we were probably a quarter later anticipated some of that. And as a result, you saw Consumer do a little bit better in the fourth quarter than we had planned.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，在零售渠道方面，我認為從第三季度開始，你會聽到我們的一些同行談論去庫存。我們沒有看到。所以我們可能在四分之一之後就預料到了其中的一些。結果，您看到消費者在第四季度的表現比我們計劃的要好一些。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just in the past, you've touched on some pretty positive trends in the Pros Who Paint business. Maybe an update there. Has that also seen a slowdown as you move through the fourth quarter and into this year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後就在過去，您談到了 Pros Who Paint 業務中的一些非常積極的趨勢。也許那裡有更新。隨著您進入第四季度和今年，這種情況是否也有所放緩？

Well, it's an important -- very important initiative for us. That's in our Consumer Brands Group, for those of you that may not be familiar with it. Todd Rea, our President there, is working closely with our teams to really capture a terrific opportunity. If you think about what we call the Pros Who Paints, it's someone that might be involved in either house flipping or remodeling.

好吧，這對我們來說是一個重要的——非常重要的舉措。對於那些可能不熟悉的人來說，這是在我們的消費者品牌集團中。我們在那裡的總裁 Todd Rea 正在與我們的團隊密切合作，以真正抓住一個絕佳的機會。如果您想想我們所說的“Pros Who Paints”，他們可能會參與房屋翻新或改建。

And while we're very focused on the painting contractor through our store, there are customers who enjoy the wide breadth of assortment and availability of products that they get through a different format like a home center. We're really excited about getting after this market, because they prefer that type of a setting and we've got great relationships with customers that are interested in that.

雖然我們通過我們的商店非常關注油漆承包商，但有些客戶喜歡通過家庭中心等不同形式獲得的產品種類繁多且可用性高。我們很高興能夠進入這個市場，因為他們更喜歡那種類型的環境，而且我們與對此感興趣的客戶建立了良好的關係。

So I would say that in Sherwin, we're not a complacent company. There's good momentum here. But along with our customers, we want to go faster. We think some in the market have been enjoying an unencumbered run at this business, and we enjoy disrupting that and helping our customers to be more successful, and we're intent on doing that. Good momentum. A lot of opportunity ahead.

所以我想說，在宣威，我們不是一家自滿的公司。這裡有很好的勢頭。但與我們的客戶一起，我們希望走得更快。我們認為市場上的一些人一直在享受這項業務的暢通無阻，我們喜歡打破這種局面並幫助我們的客戶取得更大的成功，我們打算這樣做。勢頭不錯。未來有很多機會。

Your next question is coming from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

As you move the Latin American business over to Consumer, can you help us understand what the associated margin uplift might be to Consumer from that repositioning?

當您將拉丁美洲業務轉移到消費者業務時，您能否幫助我們了解重新定位對消費者業務的相關利潤率提升可能是多少？

Yes, Kevin. It's really not a material change when you restate all of the factor -- all the income statement. It might give it a little bit of a lift on the TAG side because, as you well know, Latin America has been dilutive of TAG.

是的，凱文。當你重申所有因素——所有損益表時，這真的不是一個實質性的變化。它可能會給 TAG 方面帶來一點提升，因為眾所周知，拉丁美洲一直在稀釋 TAG。

But on the Consumer side, where we're at today versus where Latin America is -- and I'll give Latin America a shout-out. They've done a lot of hard lifting and rightsizing their business and are now back to focusing on growth, where before it was about cost management and that type of thing.

但在消費者方面，我們今天所處的位置與拉丁美洲所處的位置——我會大聲疾呼拉丁美洲。他們已經做了很多艱難的提升和調整他們的業務，現在又回到了增長上，以前是關於成本管理和類似的事情。

So now that team is externally focused and really going after market share growth. So I don't think you're going to see a material change on either segment because of this. But I think from a strategic standpoint, a focus standpoint and where the market trends are, it's the right decision at this time.

所以現在該團隊專注於外部並真正追求市場份額增長。因此，我認為您不會因此而在這兩個細分市場上看到重大變化。但我認為從戰略的角度、重點的角度和市場趨勢所在，這個時候是正確的決定。

Yes. Kevin, I know you didn't ask specifically about -- I know you asked about the margin piece of it, but I do want to expand that to include it does have a positive impact on our TAG business. The focus on North America, we've got, as Al mentioned, a terrific leader, Alberto Benavidez, down in Latin America that leads a wonderful team, and there's a shift in what's happening down there more towards what best aligns with our Consumer Brands Group.

是的。凱文，我知道你沒有具體詢問 - 我知道你問過它的利潤部分，但我確實想擴大它以包括它確實對我們的 TAG 業務產生積極影響。專注於北美，正如 Al 提到的那樣，我們在拉丁美洲擁有一位了不起的領導者 Alberto Benavidez，他領導著一支出色的團隊，那裡發生的事情正在發生轉變，更傾向於與我們的消費品牌最相符的事情團體。

So it is a terrific opportunity from a best practice standpoint to align those 2 businesses. We think it's going to help our TAG business focus, and we do think that it will allow our businesses to share information. We'll take information out of Latin America that we'll bring up to North America and vice versa as well.

因此，從最佳實踐的角度來看，這是一個很好的機會來協調這兩個業務。我們認為這將有助於我們的 TAG 業務集中，我們確實認為它將允許我們的業務共享信息。我們將從拉丁美洲獲取信息，並將其帶到北美，反之亦然。

Okay. And then secondly, I wanted to ask for your updated thoughts on alkyd resins. It sounded like that was a meaningful constraint in the fourth quarter. Is there a way to size that? And is the availability beginning to improve yet as we talk today in the first quarter?

好的。其次，我想詢問您對醇酸樹脂的最新想法。這聽起來像是第四季度的一個有意義的限制。有沒有辦法調整大小？正如我們今天所說的第一季度，可用性是否開始改善？

Yes, Kevin. I would tell you that the availability -- and not a surprise that alkyd resin does remain an industry-wide challenge. I give our technical teams and commercial teams a lot of credit for working through some very thoughtful and, in some cases, upgraded substitutions during this challenge. And we've really isolated the (inaudible) very few and are seeing sequential improvements already into our production. So I think you could expect over the next few quarters that we're going to be in a much, much better position.

是的，凱文。我會告訴你可用性 - 醇酸樹脂確實仍然是整個行業的挑戰並不奇怪。我非常感謝我們的技術團隊和商業團隊，他們在這次挑戰中完成了一些非常周到且在某些情況下升級的替代品。而且我們確實隔離了（聽不清）極少數，並且已經看到我們的生產已經連續改進。所以我認為你可以期待在接下來的幾個季度裡我們會處於一個非常非常好的位置。

And the only thing I'd add to that is we haven't called it out. It's -- so it's not material to the consolidated results. And as you know, it's split kind of between Consumer Products, it's split in Industrial. Within each of those segments, it's not material. So that's why we haven't called it out.

我唯一要補充的是我們還沒有宣布。它是 - 所以它對綜合結果並不重要。如您所知，它在消費品之間進行了拆分，在工業中進行了拆分。在每個細分市場中，它都不重要。所以這就是為什麼我們沒有大聲疾呼。

Yes, just sensitive to those that are affected by it, it's very material. If you think of our sales teams or our customers, Al was exactly right on a consolidated basis. But there have been many of our people that have been forced to work through some pretty challenging times and customers that have been working with us on that. So the materiality on a consolidated basis may not be as impactful as what it is to some of those that are truly impacted by it.

是的，只是對那些受它影響的人敏感，它非常重要。如果你想到我們的銷售團隊或我們的客戶，Al 在合併的基礎上是完全正確的。但是我們有許多人被迫度過了一些非常具有挑戰性的時期，而客戶也一直在與我們合作。因此，合併後的重要性可能不如對某些真正受其影響的人影響大。

Your next question is coming from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I was looking at your midrange assumptions on Slide 8, and in it, you assume that prices are, call it, up 5%, which is about $1.1 billion. And if volumes are down 5%, maybe the detriment is [$550 million]. And SG&A up mid-single digits is about $300 million, FX is maybe another $100 million, but that would be offset by a raw material decrease of 4%. So with these assumptions, why shouldn't your EBITDA be up $400 million rather than down $150 million at the midpoint? What is it in here that's really pulling the returns down if prices are really going to be up 5%?

我在看你在幻燈片 8 上的中檔假設，在其中，你假設價格上漲 5%，約為 11 億美元。如果銷量下降 5%，損失可能是 [5.5 億美元]。中個位數的 SG&A 約為 3 億美元，外匯可能還有 1 億美元，但這將被 4% 的原材料減少所抵消。那麼根據這些假設，為什麼您的 EBITDA 在中間點不應該增加 4 億美元而不是減少 1.5 億美元？如果價格真的要上漲 5%，這裡到底是什麼因素真正拉低了回報率？

Yes, Jeff, I think what -- we went round and round in this about mid-single-digit range, because you're talking at a mid-single-digit range. You've got a pretty wide margin. So I would say at the midpoint, we're thinking maybe a little bit lighter on the price impact and a little heavier than what you mentioned on the demand side and the volume side.

是的，傑夫，我想什麼——我們在這個大約中等個位數範圍內走來走去，因為你在中等個位數範圍內說話。你有相當大的餘地。所以我想說，在中點，我們認為價格影響可能比你在需求方面和數量方面提到的要輕一些。

So I think there's nuance in that, and this is why, to be honest with you, I struggled with laying this out that way because you can interpret it just as you have. If you go to the high end of each of those that are positive and the low end of each of those that are negative, I can get significantly different results. So to clarify, that's why I'm saying in the range in the midpoint, we do expect EBITDA margin expansion and EBITDA growth. It's just not going to be as significant as you're talking about.

所以我認為這其中存在細微差別，這就是為什麼老實說，我很難以這種方式進行佈局，因為您可以按照自己的方式進行解釋。如果你去每個積極的高端和每個消極的低端，我會得到截然不同的結果。所以澄清一下，這就是為什麼我說在中點範圍內，我們確實預計 EBITDA 利潤率擴張和 EBITDA 增長。它不會像你說的那麼重要。

And then for a follow-up, I think you had aspired to a 45% gross margin in the fourth quarter, and maybe you came in closer to 43%. Was it that volumes weren't as strong as you expected? Or was there a different factor?

然後對於後續行動，我認為您希望第四季度的毛利率達到 45%，也許您接近 43%。是不是成交量沒有你預期的那麼強勁？還是有其他因素？

No, I think you're exactly right. And you're dead on. Excluding onetime items and acquisitions, we're probably 43.1%. And it's really by the miss in TAG. It's our highest margin business. It came in below the bottom end of our range. And as John talked about, some of the other segments, P&M, DIY were double digit but below our range.

不，我認為你完全正確。你已經死定了。不包括一次性物品和收購，我們可能是 43.1%。而且真的是TAG裡的miss。這是我們利潤率最高的業務。它低於我們範圍的底端。正如約翰所說，其他一些細分市場、P&M、DIY 都是兩位數，但低於我們的範圍。

And we also I hate to throw a weather out there, but the last -- that snowstorm around Christmas really felt like a lot of people took the whole rest of the year off. Now that being said, we are seeing those sales back in our first quarter in January, and our first quarter -- start to the first quarter is where our outlook is currently...

而且我也討厭在那裡拋出天氣，但最後一次 - 聖誕節前後的暴風雪真的感覺很多人在今年剩下的時間裡都休息了。話雖如此，我們在 1 月份的第一季度看到了這些銷售，而我們的第一季度 - 從第一季度開始就是我們目前的展望......

Yes, the last couple of weeks, it's really dampened down and contractors pretty much checked out throughout that. And to Al's point, as January started, you see them back in the store in activities right back where we expected it to be.

是的，在過去的幾周里，它確實減弱了，承包商在整個過程中幾乎都進行了檢查。就 Al 的觀點而言，隨著 1 月的開始，您會看到他們回到商店中的活動就在我們預期的地方。

Your next question is coming from Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Sison。

Yes. Just one quick question. When you look at the midpoint of your guidance, I think you all said that the first half will be better than second half. So any help in terms of -- is volumes kind of flattish in the first half and down a lot more in the second half? And how does that sort of split up in terms of the $8.30. How much more front-end loaded is it than the second half?

是的。只是一個簡單的問題。看你們指導的中點，我想你們都說上半場會比下半場好。那麼，在這方面有什麼幫助嗎？上半年的交易量是否持平，而下半年的交易量下降更多？以及如何以 8.30 美元的價格進行拆分。前端負載比後半段多多少？

Yes, Jeff -- Mike. I would say from a volume standpoint, we're expecting -- and I'll start with architectural volume. We're expecting architectural volume and TAG specifically to be up low single digits in the first half and then moderate certainly in the back half.

是的，傑夫——邁克。我想說，從體積的角度來看，我們期待——我將從建築體積開始。我們預計建築體積和 TAG 在上半年特別是低個位數，然後在後半部分肯定會適度。

Because when we think about the cadence of new residential and how I have had it built into our plan, we'll start seeing a material slowdown as you get midway through the second quarter. That would accelerate into our third quarter. And then even if it's a shallow slowdown and it starts coming back, like I talked earlier, starts start coming back, we're not going to see the impact of that until 3 or 4 months out.

因為當我們考慮新住宅的節奏以及我如何將其納入我們的計劃時，我們將在第二季度中期開始看到實質性放緩。這將加速進入我們的第三季度。然後即使是輕微的放緩並開始恢復，就像我之前說過的那樣，開始恢復，我們要到 3 或 4 個月後才能看到它的影響。

So that's why it's a bigger negative impact on our second half than our first half. And as we've talked about, as volume goes, our operating margin and operating leverage is driven mostly by that. We expect to see more price in our first half than our second half. As we annualize the price increases throughout the year, we'll see those moderate.

所以這就是為什麼它對我們下半年的負面影響比我們上半年更大。正如我們所說，隨著銷量的增長，我們的營業利潤率和營業槓桿率主要受此驅動。我們預計上半年的價格會高於下半年。當我們對全年的價格上漲進行年度化時，我們會看到這些漲幅是溫和的。

And then we also expect to see more of the acquisitions in Performance Coatings in our first half and the sales and EBITDA incremental improvements there. And then as the July 1 acquisitions annualize, that will be more muted, and then a little bit offset by the way raw materials rolled out. Jim talked about the 4% low to mid-single-digit benefit. It's a little heavier on our back half than our front half just because even the first quarter, we might be flat or up or down slightly.

然後我們還希望在上半年看到更多的高性能塗料收購，以及那裡的銷售額和 EBITDA 增量改進。然後隨著 7 月 1 日的收購年度化，這將更加溫和，然後一點點被原材料推出的方式所抵消。 Jim 談到了 4% 的中低個位數收益。我們的後半場比前半場重一點，因為即使是第一節，我們也可能持平或略有上升或下降。

Okay. And any help on the EPS cadence or...

好的。以及對 EPS 節奏的任何幫助或...

Well, going back to the volume, as the first half volume is there, it will flow through.

好吧，回到卷，因為前半卷在那裡，它會流過。

Your next question is coming from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

If I could just ask, if you think about the 2 halves of the year, and it's well understood that you've got some visibility in 1 half and you don't in the back half, and it's also well understood now what the key macro drivers are and so forth.

如果我可以問一下，如果你考慮一年的下半年，並且很清楚你在上半年有一些可見性而在後半年沒有，而且現在也很清楚關鍵是什麼宏驅動程序等等。

If you think about the back half of the year and the back half of the year winds up coming in worse than you anticipated in the different segments, what do you think the key risks are in those segments that we really need to be watchful of, to sort of be on guard in case that back half wounds up actually being worse than what you anticipated to be?

如果您考慮今年下半年，而今年下半年在不同領域的表現將比您預期的更糟，您認為我們真正需要注意的那些領域的主要風險是什麼，有點警惕，以防後半部分最終比你預期的更糟？

I think, Vincent, the thing that -- I would say it this way. The thing that we're watching specifically is within TAG and within new residential, and it's not an exact science when you look at the timing of a potential slowdown. As John talked about in the macro, headlines of single-family starts slowing, you see some of the national homebuilders talking about the lower orders, but it's really as the homes get to completion is what impacts our sales the most, and there's variability in that.

我想，文森特，我會這樣說。我們特別關注的是 TAG 和新住宅，當您查看潛在放緩的時間時，這並不是一門精確的科學。正如約翰在宏觀中所說的那樣，單戶住宅的頭條新聞開始放緩，你看到一些全國性的房屋建築商在談論訂單減少，但真正影響我們銷售的是房屋完工，並且存在可變性那。

So as we continue to work with our national homebuilders and get a clean line of sight of that and the impacts that not only has on our new residential and TAG, but also kitchen cabinets, flooring and furniture on our Performance Coatings businesses, that's going to be the main driver of whether the second half is stronger or less strong than what our current outlook is.

因此，當我們繼續與我們的國家住宅建築商合作並清楚地了解這一點以及它不僅對我們的新住宅和 TAG，而且對我們的高性能塗料業務的廚櫃、地板和家具產生的影響時，這將成為下半年強於或弱於我們當前展望的主要驅動力。

And can I just ask, one quick follow-up would be in Consumer Brands and in Performance Coatings. In Consumer Brands, are there any shelf space issues that we should know about? And likewise, are there any share gains or losses in Performance Coatings?

我可以問一下，一個快速的後續行動是消費品牌和高性能塗料。在消費品品牌中，是否有任何我們應該了解的貨架空間問題？同樣，高性能塗料是否有任何股票收益或損失？

I think there's no impact on the shelf restriction on consumer, but I think there's a huge amount of market share gain opportunities within our industrial businesses, and that's all of them. As John talked about, we do not have 100% market share in any of our businesses, segments or regions and that's the way we're going into 2023.

我認為對消費者的貨架限制沒有影響，但我認為在我們的工業企業中有大量的市場份額獲得機會，僅此而已。正如約翰所說，我們在任何業務、細分市場或地區都沒有 100% 的市場份額，這就是我們進入 2023 年的方式。

We're marching aggressively. So there are terrific opportunities that we're going to be pursuing. And we often talk about the coiled spring. As this business comes back and we grow share, grow customers and it returns, it's going to spring.

我們正在積極進軍。因此，我們將尋求極好的機會。我們經常談論螺旋彈簧。隨著這項業務的回歸，我們增加了份額，增加了客戶，它又回來了，它將迎來春天。

Your next question is coming from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Arun Viswanathan。

There's been a lot of discussion here on the new housing market. Obviously, we've seen a slowdown there. We did see that permits are also down 40% year-on-year. I guess my question is, there has been a greater correlation though with architectural gallons sold in existing home sales, and there's probably a lag between starts in existing home sales as well.

這裡有很多關於新房市場的討論。顯然，我們在那裡看到了放緩。我們確實看到許可也同比下降了 40%。我想我的問題是，儘管與現有房屋銷售中售出的建築加侖數之間存在更大的相關性，但現有房屋銷售的開工之間也可能存在滯後。

So could you comment on what's your outlook for existing home sales and how that ties into your guidance? Do you see any risk that maybe the low end is not low enough if the existing market gets worse from here?

那麼，您能否評論一下您對現有房屋銷售的展望以及這與您的指導有何联系？如果現有市場從這裡變得更糟，您是否看到低端不夠低的風險？

Arun, on the existing home sales, I'd remind you that drives a portion of our res repaint, but there's other factors as well that drive that repaint business. And I think, as John said in his comments, that's an area we've been investing in. More stores, more reps to go after res repaint.

阿倫，關於現有房屋銷售，我想提醒你，這推動了我們重新粉刷的一部分，但還有其他因素也推動了重新粉刷業務。而且我認為，正如約翰在他的評論中所說，這是我們一直在投資的領域。更多的商店，更多的代表在重新粉刷後去。

So I mean if you look at existing home sales, they've been down for 16 straight months, but you've got other things that might offset that. Home price appreciation is still up year-over-year. You got the aging housing stock. You've got the baby boomers aging in place, all these things we've often spoken of.

所以我的意思是，如果你看看現有房屋的銷售情況，它們已經連續 16 個月下降，但你還有其他因素可能會抵消這一影響。房價升值仍在同比上升。你得到了老化的住房存量。你已經讓嬰兒潮一代老去，所有這些我們經常談到的事情。

So while that will be a headwind, there's other things that will help drive that repaint. And along with the share gains that John is talking about, we think got a good outlook and high expectations for res repaint next year.

因此，儘管這將是一個不利因素，但還有其他因素將有助於推動重繪。除了約翰所說的股票收益，我們認為明年對 res repaint 有良好的前景和很高的期望。

Yes, Arun. The only thing I would add to that is, as you know, res repaint is our fastest-growing segment. It's our largest segment, and it's our largest opportunity for market share growth. And I think that's what the focus of our TAG team is on with the specific investments in dedicated new res repaint stores and dedicated res repaint reps.

是的，阿倫。我唯一要補充的是，如你所知，res repaint 是我們增長最快的部分。這是我們最大的細分市場，也是我們市場份額增長的最大機會。我認為這就是我們 TAG 團隊的重點，具體投資於專門的新 res 重繪商店和專門的 res 重繪代表。

As part of what gives us the confidence as we compare this to the last slowdown, we came out of the last slowdown determined to grow that residential repaint business to help offset, we call it, almost a resilient segment, having the growth that we have had. And we continue to invest, I think -- I don't know what the number is now, what the number of stores that we have now versus the last slowdown were up, how many?

當我們將這次放緩與上次放緩進行比較時，作為讓我們充滿信心的一部分，我們從上次放緩中走出來，決心發展住宅重新粉刷業務，以幫助抵消，我們稱之為幾乎是一個有彈性的部分，我們有增長有。我們繼續投資，我想——我不知道現在的數字是多少，我們現在擁有的商店數量與上次放緩相比增加了多少，有多少？

A little over 1,200 stores since 2010.

自 2010 年以來，已有 1,200 多家門店。

1,200 more stores now versus the last slowdown, probably a near-similar number of reps focused on this area. And so it shouldn't be a surprise that we're growing the last 10 years over 11.5% and the conviction and determination that we have, I think, is at an all-time high. And we expect, as we work through these challenging times, to grow more share that we'll enjoy as the business -- through this as well as when the business comes back.

與上次放緩相比，現在增加了 1,200 家商店，專注於該領域的銷售代表數量可能接近相似。因此，我們在過去 10 年的增長率超過 11.5% 並且我認為我們擁有的信念和決心處於歷史最高水平也就不足為奇了。我們希望，在我們度過這些充滿挑戰的時期時，我們將在業務中獲得更多的份額——通過這個以及當業務恢復時。

So I would add to that, too. I think over the last 10 years, I think while the marketing dynamics certainly are similar to back 2008, 2009, I would say it's almost even better now. There's so much change in the market. I think as you mentioned, our incremental store count, we've been aggressively adding stores. Our competition, I would say, has been aggressively closing down stores.

所以我也要補充一點。我認為在過去的 10 年裡，雖然營銷動態肯定與 2008 年、2009 年相似，但我想說現在幾乎更好。市場變化太大了。我想正如你提到的，我們的增量商店數量，我們一直在積極增加商店。我想說，我們的競爭對手一直在積極關閉商店。

So with these changes, there's been some confusion in the marketplace that we believe is our opportunity. So we're adding a new store about, on average, every 4 days. And I think we'd all agree we're confident in our long-term strategy with our near-term ability to execute.

因此，隨著這些變化，市場出現了一些混亂，我們認為這是我們的機會。因此，我們平均每 4 天新增一家商店。而且我認為我們都同意我們對我們的長期戰略和近期執行能力充滿信心。

Okay. And just another follow-up, I guess, was given that a lot of your growth, your investing is mainly on the organic side. Are there inorganic opportunities as well that may present themselves in a downturn like this? What are some of the areas within the portfolio that you'd need to buttress, if at all? I know you made the bolt-ons in some of the raw material and technology areas, but anything -- would it be more like in those areas? Or is it industrial? Or what are you looking at for potential M&A?

好的。我猜，另一個後續行動是考慮到你的很多增長，你的投資主要是在有機方面。在這樣的低迷時期，是否也存在無機機會？如果有的話，您需要支持投資組合中的哪些領域？我知道你在一些原材料和技術領域進行了補強，但任何東西——它會更像那些領域嗎？還是工業品？或者您在尋找潛在的併購機會？

Well, we've been investing in a number of transactions that we think are terrific. We've been investing primarily on our Performance Coatings side. We've invested in industrial businesses, General Industrial in Germany, Industrial Wood business in Italy. We've got a number of flooring businesses that we've welcomed into the family.

好吧，我們一直在投資一些我們認為很棒的交易。我們一直主要投資於我們的高性能塗料方面。我們投資了工業企業，德國的通用工業，意大利的工業木材企業。我們有許多地板業務，我們歡迎他們加入我們的大家庭。

And our goal here is not -- we're not portfolio managers. We don't bring them in and run independent businesses. These are going to be contributors on a much grander scale to the overall business. So technology that we acquire in some part of the world, we're immediately looking at how we leverage that across the entire platform.

我們的目標不是——我們不是投資組合經理。我們不會讓他們進來經營獨立的業務。這些將在更大範圍內為整體業務做出貢獻。因此，我們在世界某些地方獲得的技術，我們會立即研究如何在整個平台上利用它。

So as you're watching and absorbing the acquisitions that we're making, I hope everyone understands we're really not interested in buying small positions in different parts of the world. We're making these acquisitions, and we'll leverage them across the entire platform around the world. So these have been good investments, we think, and there's still a considerable amount of opportunity ahead to better leverage them going forward.

因此，當您關注和吸收我們正在進行的收購時，我希望每個人都明白我們真的對在世界不同地區購買小倉位不感興趣。我們正在進行這些收購，我們將在全球的整個平台上利用它們。因此，我們認為這些都是很好的投資，未來仍有大量機會可以更好地利用它們。

Your next question is coming from John McNulty from BMO Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 John McNulty。

Just one kind of cleanup question on pricing. So in the deck that you showed on Slide 8 where it showed consolidated pricing carryover and there was a range, low single digits to mid-single digits, I guess what drives the range there? Because it sounds like it's just a carryover from kind of where you ended 4Q. So I guess what would make it go to the low end versus the mid-single-digit side? I guess how should we think about that?

只是一種關於定價的清理問題。因此，在您在幻燈片 8 上展示的平台中，它顯示了綜合定價結轉並且有一個範圍，低個位數到中個位數，我猜是什麼驅動了這個範圍？因為這聽起來像是您在第四季度結束時的結轉。所以我想是什麼讓它進入低端而不是中個位數？我想我們應該如何考慮？

Yes, John. I think it's somewhat similar, I would think, as when we talk about a range on raw material costs. There's a lot of different market dynamics from demand and other things that might cause that range to move.

是的，約翰。當我們談論原材料成本的範圍時，我認為這有點相似。需求和其他可能導致該範圍移動的因素有很多不同的市場動態。

The point I would (technical difficulty) TAG 5 different price increases over 2 years. We fully expect to maintain the majority of that price. So even a slight decrease, increase or movement within that range doesn't impact the overall fact that we're going to maintain the majority of that price as we've done in similar environments in the past.

我會（技術難度）在 2 年內標記 5 種不同的價格上漲。我們完全希望維持該價格的大部分。因此，即使在該範圍內略有下降、增加或移動，也不會影響我們將像過去在類似環境中所做的那樣維持大部分價格的總體事實。

And I think that's similar across the Industrial businesses and Consumer because we are looking at the total input cost basket that's affecting what price increases we've gone out with and what continued investments we've been able to make as we bring our gross margin back towards that long-term rate of 45% to 48%.

而且我認為這在工業企業和消費者中是相似的，因為我們正在研究總投入成本籃子，這會影響我們已經採取的價格上漲以及我們在恢復毛利率時能夠進行的持續投資朝著 45% 到 48% 的長期增長率邁進。

So just to be clear, we kept investing when we're taking margin contraction through the cycle, and now that margins start improving again, we can continue those investments to drive growth, both through our retail partners, through our own stores and help our industrial partners drive growth as well.

所以要明確一點，當我們在整個週期中利潤率收縮時，我們繼續投資，現在利潤率再次開始提高，我們可以繼續這些投資來推動增長，無論是通過我們的零售合作夥伴，還是通過我們自己的商店，並幫助我們工業合作夥伴也推動增長。

Yes. I'd add, too. Pricing isn't just a quick 30-minute discussion with our customers. It's the result of adding value everyday that's allowing us to be effective with them. So when you think of the value that we're bringing, it goes well beyond the product, but you talked earlier about services, project health, digital convenience. So we're really confident we're going to be able to hold on to this. We're not just talking about price as kind of a stand-alone discussion, so confident we're going to be able to hold on to that.

是的。我也要補充。定價不僅僅是與我們的客戶進行 30 分鐘的快速討論。這是每天增加價值的結果，這使我們能夠與他們一起工作。所以當你想到我們帶來的價值時，它遠遠超出了產品，但你之前談到了服務、項目健康、數字便利。所以我們真的很有信心我們能夠堅持下去。我們不僅僅是在談論價格作為一種獨立的討論，所以我們有信心能夠堅持下去。

Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up. So your stores tend to have a higher service component to it than maybe some of the competitors out there, and that's helped you on the share front. But I guess our concern would be with labor inflation as big as it is and labor being a bigger component of your cost, I guess do you have enough levers that you can pull to offset that beyond price? Because your competitors may not actually have to raise price as much to deal with kind of wage inflation. So I guess how should we think about that?

知道了。然後也許只是一個後續行動。所以你的商店往往比那裡的一些競爭對手有更高的服務成分，這對你在份額方面有幫助。但我想我們擔心的是勞動力通脹如此之大，勞動力在成本中所佔比例更大，我想你是否有足夠的槓桿來抵消價格以外的影響？因為您的競爭對手實際上可能不必提高價格來應對某種工資上漲。所以我想我們應該如何考慮？

Yes, John, it's about driving higher quality products that make our companion contractors more efficient, allows them to get more jobs done with the same number of painters and it drives their bottom line. And I think when you look at it in an inflationary environment, and we've talked about this in the past, you tend to see more, and I'll use res repainters, move up to a higher quality product because they're going to pay more for that gallon of paint. The gallon of paint is a small relative proportion to the overall cost of a project.

是的，約翰，這是關於推動更高質量的產品，使我們的合作承包商更有效率，讓他們用同樣數量的油漆工完成更多的工作，並提高他們的利潤。而且我認為當你在通貨膨脹的環境中看它時，我們過去討論過這個，你往往會看到更多，我會使用 res 重繪器，升級到更高質量的產品，因為它們正在為那加侖油漆支付更多的錢。一加侖油漆在項目總成本中所佔的比例很小。

So as we get those higher quality products in their hands and show the efficiencies they can get, it drives higher -- as you imagine, higher quality products, higher margins. And that's how our strategy is when we innovate new products, and I've said this many times before. You always innovate the high end of the good, better, best continuum, and over time, that good gets replaced. So I think that's a big lever for us and a big driver of how we can continue to expand our margins.

因此，當我們將這些更高質量的產品交到他們手中並展示他們可以獲得的效率時，它會推動更高——正如你想像的那樣，更高質量的產品，更高的利潤。這就是我們創新新產品時的戰略，我之前已經說過很多次了。你總是在好的、更好的、最好的連續體的高端進行創新，隨著時間的推移，好的會被取代。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個重要的槓桿，也是我們如何繼續擴大利潤率的重要推動力。

Your next question is coming from John Roberts from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰羅伯茨。

Great. The DIY paint historically is not price elastic, but do you think that some of the demand weakness here is that prices just got too high?

偉大的。 DIY 塗料歷史上沒有價格彈性，但您認為這裡的一些需求疲軟是因為價格太高了嗎？

Well, I'd say that our residential repaint business is strong, and it's as (inaudible) even more in times to have a contractor apply to paint, John.

好吧，我想說我們的住宅重新粉刷業務很強大，而且（聽不清）甚至更多的時候讓承包商申請油漆，約翰。

I was asking DIY consumer. Sorry.

我問的是 DIY 消費者。對不起。

No, I understand that, but I'm saying that in the market, we are having customers that are continuing to invest in their homes as prices have gone up. And in the breadth of product that we offer, while there's a wide platform of price points, we continue, as I mentioned, to see stickiness in the higher quality products.

不，我明白這一點，但我是說在市場上，隨著價格上漲，我們有客戶繼續投資他們的房屋。在我們提供的產品範圍內，雖然有廣泛的價格點平台，但正如我提到的，我們繼續看到更高質量產品的粘性。

So I don't know that it's we've reached a point of demand destruction, if that's your question. I think the consumers are very well aware of inflation in the market, and I think that they're making decisions right now. No question. That filling up your tank has been more expensive than it has been in the past.

所以我不知道我們是否已經達到需求破壞的程度，如果這是你的問題。我認為消費者非常清楚市場上的通貨膨脹，我認為他們現在正在做出決定。沒有問題。加滿油箱比過去貴多了。

But I'll go back to the point that we made earlier, which is that it's a -- amongst all the opportunities to influence the environment, which is most important to most of us, where you live, relative -- still a relatively inexpensive but highly impactful investment in your home.

但我要回到我們之前提出的觀點，即它是 - 在所有影響環境的機會中，這對我們大多數人來說最重要，你住的地方，相對 - 仍然是一個相對便宜的但對您的房屋進行極具影響力的投資。

John, the only thing I would add to that is, and we saw this in our second quarter, and I think if you segment our DIY customers between what we see in the retail channels versus what we see in our stores, certainly, with the inflation of energy and food, we saw a bigger impact on demand in our retail channel versus our stores channel. So there may be that nuance that you're seeing.

約翰，我唯一要補充的是，我們在第二季度看到了這一點，我認為如果你將我們的 DIY 客戶分為我們在零售渠道中看到的客戶和我們在商店中看到的客戶，當然，能源和食品的通貨膨脹，我們發現零售渠道的需求比商店渠道受到更大的影響。所以可能會有你看到的細微差別。

One piece I would add to that, too. In terms of just elasticity, I think there's also the dynamic with the consumer DIY segment to Al's point, where they're purchasing less frequently. You're going to have some that are more value conscious. But we have introduced and innovated so many different products that have brought trading up to be more attractive, whether it's one coat, increased durability. And so that consumer that's paying every 5 to 7 years has demonstrated a willingness to pay for that as well.

我也會添加一件。就彈性而言，我認為消費者 DIY 細分市場也存在動態，以 Al 的觀點，他們購買的頻率較低。您將擁有一些更具價值意識的產品。但我們已經推出和創新了許多不同的產品，使交易變得更具吸引力，無論是一件外套，還是增加了耐用性。因此，每 5 到 7 年支付一次費用的消費者也表現出了為此支付的意願。

Okay. And then, Heidi, I think you mentioned that Coil was one of the stronger end markets. Isn't that appliances and sheet metal for construction? What's going on there that, that outperformed?

好的。然後，Heidi，我想你提到過 Coil 是更強大的終端市場之一。那不是建築用的電器和鈑金嗎？那是怎麼回事，那表現出色？

So John, you might have misunderstood my voice versus Heidi, because it was my voice that talked to Coil. We have a nice business in our Coil business that is impacted by our appliance business. And as I mentioned in my remarks, we do see some settling, if you will, in the appliance business as there's kind of a reset to inventory level. So it has impacted our Coil business.

所以 John，你可能誤解了我的聲音和 Heidi，因為是我的聲音和 Coil 說話。我們的線圈業務受到家電業務的影響，業務不錯。正如我在發言中提到的那樣，如果你願意的話，我們確實看到了家電業務的一些解決方案，因為庫存水平有所重置。所以它影響了我們的線圈業務。

Your next question is coming from Josh Spector from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

A question on the China and the aerosol restructuring. I guess it's a pretty significant amount of sales you may be walking away from or rationalizing. I guess are we past the point of having any ability to monetize that?

關於中國和氣霧劑重組的問題。我想這是您可能正在放棄或合理化的相當可觀的銷售額。我想我們是不是已經沒有能力將其貨幣化了？

I'm sorry, Josh, when you say past the point of ability to monetize it, no. I think we have consistently taken a review of our portfolio of businesses, brands, customer programs, and I think we look at it both midterm, on their ability to get significant market share growth and return on sales and cash flow, but we also take a longer-term view of it to say, if there are opportunities to monetize the business, we'll work to reorg to get it in position and pursue that option, among other options.

對不起，喬希，當你說超越了將其貨幣化的能力時，不。我認為我們一直在對我們的業務組合、品牌、客戶計劃進行審查，我認為我們從中期來看，看它們獲得顯著市場份額增長以及銷售和現金流回報的能力，但我們也考慮從長遠來看，如果有機會通過業務獲利，我們將努力重組以使其就位並尋求該選項以及其他選項。

You can run it for cash, you can run it as a growth business or you can monetize it, like you're talking about. So each of those options are being evaluated, and we'll update The Street as we get to that. The short-term reality though is that market, in particular, China, architectural is under heavy pressure, and we have to and did take appropriate significant actions to adjust to that market conditions.

你可以用現金來經營它，你可以把它作為一個成長型企業來經營，或者你可以將它貨幣化，就像你在談論的那樣。所以這些選項中的每一個都在評估中，我們將在到達時更新 The Street。但短期的現實是，市場，尤其是中國，建築業承受著沉重的壓力，我們必須並且確實採取了適當的重大行動來適應這種市場狀況。

Okay. Appreciate that. If I could ask one just to follow up on raws. I mean it's obviously down low to mid-single, puts a small dent in the 30% plus you guys have absorbed in terms of increases. I guess is this where raw materials stabilize, in your view? And I guess if you have a weaker view on volume in the second half, do you have any visibility to either longer-term contracts or anything else becoming a relief point for raw materials into the next year?

好的。感謝。如果我可以請一個人跟進原料。我的意思是，它顯然下降到中等水平，對 30% 加上你們在增加方面吸收的部分進行了小幅調整。在您看來，我想這是原材料穩定的地方嗎？而且我想如果你對下半年的數量有較弱的看法，你是否對長期合同或其他任何成為明年原材料緩解點的因素有任何看法？

Yes, Josh. I think you hit it. I mean if demand continues to deteriorate, we would -- or more so than what we expect in the back half, you'd expect raw material costs to drop with that. And there's not long-term contracts or agreements that lock us into to not participate in those kinds of actions.

是的，喬希。我想你成功了。我的意思是，如果需求繼續惡化，我們會——或者比我們對下半年的預期更多，你會預計原材料成本會隨之下降。並且沒有長期合同或協議來限制我們不參與這些類型的行動。

These principles of supply demand, we've dealt with for decades.

這些供求原則，我們已經處理了幾十年。

Your next question is coming from Greg Melich from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Greg Melich。

Two questions. One, thanks for the helpful CAGRs on new resi versus resi repaint. Could you remind us as to how much bigger the resi repaint business is compared to new residential?

兩個問題。第一，感謝新 resi 與 resi 重繪的有用複合年增長率。您能否提醒我們，與新住宅相比，resi 重新粉刷業務要大多少？

Yes. It's -- Greg, it's today, 2:1 res repaint versus new residential. Back -- prior to '08 and '09, it was 1:1. So John talked about the tremendous low double-digit growth in both segments since 2010. It's just that new res repaint was starting from a much higher base.

是的。這是——格雷格，今天是 2:1 重新粉刷與新住宅。回來——在 08 年和 09 年之前，是 1:1。所以 John 談到了自 2010 年以來這兩個細分市場的巨大低兩位數增長。只是新的 res repaint 從更高的基數開始。

So repaint is 2x new res today?

那麼今天重繪是 2 倍新分辨率嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Perfect. And then the second is more about understanding the gross margin progression. It sounds like 45% to 48% is still the right goal. I think, John, you talked about getting that in a couple of years in a normalized environment. So I guess my question is, if volume this year ended up being flat or slightly up as opposed to down, would we be back in that 45% to 48% range this year? Or is there something else going on that is impacting...

完美的。然後第二個更多是關於了解毛利率的進展。聽起來 45% 到 48% 仍然是正確的目標。我想，約翰，你談到在幾年內在一個標準化的環境中實現這一點。所以我想我的問題是，如果今年的銷量最終持平或略有上升而不是下降，我們今年會回到 45% 到 48% 的範圍嗎？還是有其他事情正在影響...

No, I think that's a fair -- that's directionally fair. I think if the volume is better, and in particular, the volume is better in TAG, because it's our highest gross margin segment. And yes, with the pricing that we would maintain, the majority of monitoring raw materials, the continuous improvement mindset that we have across our manufacturing and distribution facilities all play into driving that margin to that 45% to 48%. But to your point, Greg, it's always about volume, and it's about volume through TAG that's going to help lift that gross margin.

不，我認為這是公平的——這是方向性的公平。我認為如果銷量更好，特別是 TAG 的銷量更好，因為它是我們毛利率最高的部分。是的，根據我們將維持的定價，大部分監控原材料，我們在製造和分銷設施中的持續改進心態都將利潤率推高至 45% 至 48%。但就你的觀點而言，格雷格，這始終與銷量有關，而這與通過 TAG 的銷量有關，這將有助於提高毛利率。

Fair enough. Would it be fair to use the fourth quarter as a proxy to get an idea of that operating leverage? In other words, it looks like volume was maybe 300 or 400 bps lower than you thought it was going to be and gross margin end up being 200 basis points lower. Or am I thinking about that the wrong way?

很公平。使用第四季度作為代理來了解該運營槓桿是否公平？換句話說，看起來成交量可能比你想像的低 300 或 400 個基點，毛利率最終低 200 個基點。還是我想錯了？

No, I think you're -- I would say you're directionally accurate here.

不，我認為你是——我會說你在這裡的方向是準確的。

Your next question is coming from Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Just following up on the comment, John, you made earlier about your home center partners or you're helping them as they requested for the Pros Who Paint. And I was just curious whether any of your home center partners within Consumer are trying to do what you can do through your stores, like delivery of large volumes to the job sites on a digital access. Are you seeing any of them do that? And does that have any impact on your stores in the area?

只是跟進評論，約翰，你早些時候對你的家庭中心合作夥伴發表了看法，或者你正在幫助他們，因為他們要求繪畫專家。我很好奇，您在 Consumer 中的任何家庭中心合作夥伴是否正在嘗試做您可以通過您的商店做的事情，例如通過數字訪問將大量產品運送到工作地點。你看到他們中有人這樣做了嗎？這對您在該地區的商店有什麼影響嗎？

Yes, Steve, I want to be really clear here that we're supporting our customers in their efforts to apply and execute on the strategies that will help them grow in this business. I think what you're trying to get after is cannibalization between the home centers and our stores. And we've looked at this in great depth. There would be very little. There might be a few accounts here.

是的，史蒂夫，我想在這裡非常清楚，我們正在支持我們的客戶努力應用和執行有助於他們在這項業務中發展的戰略。我認為你想要得到的是家庭中心和我們商店之間的蠶食。我們已經深入研究了這一點。會很少。這裡可能有幾個帳戶。

They are a small amount, but we would gladly put those on the table to expand into a virtually untapped market for us. And the painter that's in our stores every day has expectations that are likely best filled through a specialty paint store. Some of them find their way into home centers, and we want to support those that find their way in there.

它們的數量很少，但我們很樂意將它們放在桌面上，以便為我們擴展到一個幾乎尚未開發的市場。每天在我們店裡的油漆工都有可能通過專業油漆店最好地滿足他們的期望。他們中的一些人找到了進入家庭中心的路，我們希望支持那些在那裡找到路的人。

But I would say that the target here and the higher level of success is going to be attracting those customers into the home centers that prefer the home center experience, largely because of the breadth of the product lines. And so we're not bashful about it. There'll be a little bit of cannibalization, very little compared to the opportunity that collectively we can pursue with our partners.

但我要說的是，這裡的目標和更高水平的成功將吸引那些喜歡家庭中心體驗的客戶進入家庭中心，這主要是因為產品線的廣度。所以我們對此並不害羞。會有一點蠶食，與我們可以與合作夥伴共同追求的機會相比，這種情況微乎其微。

Okay. And I wanted to ask you how much visibility do you have to the backlog that your contractors have? And do you have a view on how much do they have, whether it's residential repaint versus commercial and property management? Are those meaningfully different right now? And was there a big change recently? We had some dialogue with some contractors where there was a significant change like in the last month.

好的。我想問你，你對你的承包商的積壓工作有多了解？您是否了解他們有多少，無論是住宅粉刷還是商業和物業管理？現在那些有意義的不同嗎？最近有什麼大的變化嗎？我們與一些承包商進行了一些對話，這些承包商在上個月發生了重大變化。

Yes, there's been some change. I referenced that earlier that the pipeline of bidding has tempered down a bit. The quality of those bids seems to be improving and the scope of the projects continue to actually grow. I'd also say -- so the answer is yes. We do work closely with our customers.

是的，發生了一些變化。我之前提到過，投標渠道有所緩和。這些投標的質量似乎在提高，項目的範圍實際上在繼續擴大。我還要說——所以答案是肯定的。我們確實與客戶密切合作。

And as I mentioned previously, we, I think, are working much closer with them than ever in my career, partially because of the experience that we've had over the last couple of years. And so I'd say there's a wide spectrum. If you look at the one end, the commercial painting contractor and the industrial painting contractor, they generally have a longer view of what's happening because of the scope of the project.

正如我之前提到的，我認為，在我的職業生涯中，我們與他們的合作比以往任何時候都更加密切，部分原因是我們在過去幾年的經驗。所以我想說的範圍很廣。如果你看一端，商業塗裝承包商和工業塗裝承包商，由於項目的範圍，他們通常對正在發生的事情有更長遠的看法。

On the commercial side, something might be coming out of the ground and that project may be in a couple of years in the making. Industrial side, when they're talking about the protection of assets, there's usually a plan that they're following. That would be on the far right side. And on the other side, a shorter line of sight would be the residential repaint side. And in between would be property maintenance and new residential where there are varying lengths of view, if you will.

在商業方面，可能會出現一些東西，並且該項目可能會在幾年後進行。工業方面，當他們談論資產保護時，他們通常會遵循一個計劃。那將在最右邊。而在另一邊，較短的視線將是住宅重新粉刷的一面。如果您願意的話，介於兩者之間的是物業維護和新住宅，那裡有不同的視野。

So we work with our customers, all of them, to have a good understanding. There have been some shifts that's reflected in our guidance that we've given. But again, I want to reiterate, I want to -- this is really important. I apologize for repeating it so often here. We're not sitting here on our back saying, oh, bad things are happening to us. We're aggressively pursuing any one of these segments we can talk to, what we think the market is going to perform in it and how much better we expect to perform in that market.

因此，我們與所有客戶合作，以便更好地理解。我們給出的指導中反映了一些變化。但我想再次重申，我想——這真的很重要。我為在這裡經常重複它而道歉。我們不是坐在這裡說，哦，不好的事情發生在我們身上。我們正在積極追求我們可以與之交談的這些細分市場中的任何一個，我們認為市場將在其中表現如何以及我們期望在該市場上表現得更好。

So whilst even some of the bidding might have tempered down, again, we're not sitting here with 100% market share. We're aggressively pursuing and we expect our competitors, as they pull back, we're going to take advantage of those opportunities as well as the new products. Heidi mentioned a couple of those, the services, the new stores. We're going to be very aggressive during these times. And we expect as we go through this, to grow share, and as we come out of it, that coiled spring is going to pop.

因此，雖然甚至有些出價可能已經緩和，但我們並沒有坐在這裡擁有 100% 的市場份額。我們正在積極追求，我們希望我們的競爭對手在他們撤退時，我們將利用這些機會和新產品。海蒂提到了其中的幾個，服務，新店。在這些時候我們會非常積極。我們期望隨著我們經歷這一切，增加份額，當我們走出困境時，螺旋彈簧將會彈出。

The other thing I would add is, I think everything that John just covered across segments, I would say that in general, our customers like we have become better planners. And together, we are creating not just that stickiness we always talk about, but becoming better business partners and business planners together.

我要補充的另一件事是，我認為約翰剛剛涵蓋的所有內容，我想說的是，總的來說，我們的客戶像我們一樣已經成為更好的計劃者。在一起，我們不僅創造了我們一直談論的粘性，而且還一起成為更好的業務合作夥伴和業務規劃者。

Your next question is coming from Garik Shmois from Loop Capital.

你的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Garik Shmois。

I just wanted to ask on the SG&A guidance range. What are some of the factors that you're going to be looking at when you decide to pull the trigger on some of the growth initiatives versus pulling back some? Is just a function of how demand is tracking this year? And maybe when do you have to make that decision, just given the range is down low single digits to anywhere to up mid-single digits through the year?

我只是想問一下 SG&A 指導範圍。當您決定啟動一些增長計劃而不是撤回一些增長計劃時，您將考慮哪些因素？只是今年需求追踪的一個函數嗎？也許你什麼時候必須做出這個決定，只是考慮到全年範圍從低個位數到任何地方到中個位數？

Yes, Garik, I think we look at it as we progress through the first half and get a better outlook coming into the second half, I would tell you that from a G&A standpoint, we are going to maintain our G&A tightly through the first half. I think you're going to see us -- I'll use the term pedaling clutch like one of our predecessors here have used, where we'll spend merchandising, advertising, things of that nature that are not committed and they are discretionary.

是的，加里克，我認為我們會在上半年取得進展並在下半年獲得更好的前景時看待它，我會告訴你，從 G＆A 的角度來看，我們將在上半年保持我們的 G＆A 緊密.我想你會看到我們——我會使用踏板離合器這個詞，就像我們這裡的一位前輩使用的那樣，我們將在這裡進行商品推銷、廣告，以及那些沒有承諾的性質的東西，它們是自由裁量的。

We'll manage those to how demand outlook we feel like. And it's on the long-term growth investments that you can expect us to continue to push those through stores, reps. We just talked about the Pros Who Paint. Because we have confidence and we have a lot of strong outlooks for the long term when it comes to architectural demand.

我們將根據我們的需求前景來管理這些。你可以期待我們繼續通過商店、銷售代表推動這些長期增長投資。我們剛剛談到了繪畫專家。因為在建築需求方面，我們有信心並且對長期前景有很多強烈的看法。

We talked about Packaging, we talked about any number of market share opportunities we have across all our businesses. So the confidence we have in the long-term outlook makes you say that we're going to continue to invest in these long-term growth opportunities. These other noncustomer-facing type of spending, we're going to maintain very closely.

我們談到了包裝，我們談到了我們在所有業務中擁有的任何數量的市場份額機會。因此，我們對長期前景的信心讓你說我們將繼續投資於這些長期增長機會。這些其他非面向客戶的支出類型，我們將非常密切地保持。

Okay. Follow-up question is just on the pace of new store openings for '23. Just given that it picked up quite a bit in the fourth quarter, should we expect it to revert to maybe kind of a more linear pacing? Or any color on how that looks?

好的。後續問題只是關於 23 年新店開張的速度。鑑於它在第四季度有所回升，我們是否應該期望它恢復到更線性的節奏？或外觀上的任何顏色？

Garik, we've been trying to spread those out more evenly for 38 years that I've been with the company. For a lot of reasons, they get back loaded as the year unfolds. We've got a good line of sight on the number and the locations, but I would say they're likely going to be -- I hope not as backloaded as last year, but they're going to lean in the back half of the year again in 2023.

Garik，我在公司工作了 38 年，我們一直在努力更均勻地分配這些。由於很多原因，隨著時間的推移，他們會重新加載。我們對數量和地點有很好的了解，但我想說他們很可能會——我希望不會像去年那樣後退，但他們會在後半段傾斜2023 年又是一年。

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Jim Jaye for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝你。我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在將會議交還給 Jim Jaye 作閉幕詞。請繼續。

Thank you, and thanks, everybody, for joining our call today. As we went through our comments, I believe you heard that we're very confident in our strategy going forward. I'm very confident in our people. It's a very deep and experienced team. But at the same time, given what we see today, our outlook, I think, is a very realistic one starting off this year.

謝謝大家，感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。當我們回顧我們的評論時，我相信你聽說我們對我們未來的戰略非常有信心。我對我們的人民非常有信心。這是一個非常有深度和經驗豐富的團隊。但與此同時，鑑於我們今天所看到的情況，我認為從今年開始我們的前景是非常現實的。

Even in that outlook, we're going to continue to gain share. We're going to continue investing in the business to grow. You heard Al say we're going to control the G&A very tightly, and I think John said it multiple times that we really expect to outperform the market just as we have in the past. So thank you for joining us today. As always, I'll be available along with Eric Swanson for follow-up calls. Have a great day. Thank you.

即使在這種前景下，我們也將繼續獲得份額。我們將繼續投資業務以實現增長。你聽到 Al 說我們將非常嚴格地控制 G&A，我認為 John 多次說過我們真的希望像過去一樣跑贏市場。感謝您今天加入我們。與往常一樣，我將與 Eric Swanson 一起接聽後續電話。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝你。

Thank you. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可能會斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。