Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd (SHG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Good afternoon. My name is Park Cheol Woo, Head of IR. I would like to thank everyone for taking part in Shinhan Financial Group's 2024 full-year earnings presentation despite your very busy schedules.

    午安.我叫 Park Cheol Woo,是 IR 主管。非常感謝大家在百忙之中抽空參加新韓金融集團2024年全年業績發表會。

  • In today's earnings representation, we're joined by the Group CFO, Chun Sang Yung; Group CSO, Koh Seogheon; the Group CRO, Bang Dong Kwon; and from the Future Strategy Business Development Center, Director Go Yousun; and the newly appointed Shinhan Bank CFO, Lee Jeong Bin; Shinhan Card CFO, Park Hae Chang; Shinhan Security CFO, Jang Jeonghoon; and from Shinhan Life, CFO Joo Sung-hwan is here.

    在今天的收益報告中,我們邀請了集團財務長 Chun Sang Yung 出席;集團首席策略長 Koh Seogheon;集團首席風險長 Bang Dong Kwon;以及未來策略事業發展中心主任高有善;以及新任新韓銀行財務長李正彬(Lee Jeong Bin);新韓卡財務長樸海昌 (Park Hae Chang);新韓安全財務長張正勳;新韓生命金融的 CFO 朱成煥也來到了這裡。

  • Today, as has been the practice, we will first start off with a presentation of our full-year 2024 business results and this will be followed by a Q&A session with those in attendance. I would now like to turn the floor over to Group CFO, Chun Sang Yung, for a presentation on our business performance.

    今天,按照慣例,我們將首先介紹我們的 2024 年全年業務業績,然後與出席者進行問答環節。現在,我想請集團財務長 Chun Sang Yung 介紹我們的業務績效。

  • Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Good afternoon. We would like to thank everyone for taking part in Shinhan Financial Group's 2024 full-year earnings presentation despite your busy schedule.

    午安.感謝大家在百忙之中抽空參加新韓金融集團2024年全年業績發表會。

  • On page 5, let us start with the financial highlights one by one. In 2024, despite the weakness in our non-interest income segment, we realized a net income of KRW4,517.5 billion, up 3.4% YoY due to higher interest income and fall in credit cost. Interest income increased by 5.4% YoY, driven by the bank's strategic loan asset growth and efficient margin management, which continued throughout the year despite the declining market interest rate.

    從第 5 頁開始,讓我們逐一介紹財務亮點。2024年,儘管非利息收入部門表現疲軟,但由於利息收入增加和信貸成本下降,我們實現淨收入45,175億韓元,年增3.4%。利息收入年增5.4%,這得益於該行戰略性的貸款資產增長和有效的保證金管理,儘管市場利率下降,但這一趨勢在全年持續。

  • Non-interest income decreased 5.0% YoY despite an increase in fee income. This was due to the recognition of valuation losses on marketable securities in order to build future loss absorption capacity against market uncertainties, and also due to lower insurance income due to changes in actuarial assumptions and also due to the prior year base effect.

    儘管手續費收入增加,但非利息收入年減 5.0%。這是因為,為了建立未來應對市場不確定性的損失吸收能力,確認了有價證券的估值損失,同時也因為精算假設的變化以及上一年基數效應導致的保險收入下降。

  • Although SG&A expenses increased by 3.7% year on year due to expanded ERP program, the group's full-year CIR was in line with the previous year's level due to well managed SG&A expenses and increasing operating profit before expenses, and posted 41.7%. The full-year credit cost ratio posted 47 bps, down 10 bps YoY, reflecting the asset quality management efforts that have been exerted and the base effect of additional provisions that have been recognized up to the prior year while we continue to build the loss of sovereign capacity related to real estate.

    雖然由於 ERP 專案的擴大,銷售、一般及行政開支較上年同期增加 3.7%,但由於銷售、一般及行政開支管理得當,且費用前營運利潤增加,集團全年營運利潤率與上年水準持平,並錄得 41.7%。全年信貸成本率為 47 個基點,年減 10 個基點,反映了我們在繼續彌補房地產相關主權能力損失的同時,所付出的資產品質管理努力和截至上年已確認的額外撥備的基數效應。

  • The CET1 ratio at year end 2024 was provisionally estimated at 13.03% despite a number of variables, including a year-end high exchange rate that's in line with the group's target of 13% or higher. The Board of Directors today resolved to pay a year-end dividend of KRW540 per share, and share buyback and cancellation totaling KRW500 billion, therefore, the total of KRW400 billion of share buyback and cancellation that we announced in October last year to fulfill our year-round Treasury stock policy.

    儘管存在許多變量,包括年底的高匯率與該集團 13% 或更高的目標一致,但 2024 年底的 CET1 比率暫時估計為 13.03%。董事會今天決議派發每股540韓元的年終股息,併回購和取消總計5000億韓元的股票,因此,我們去年10月宣布的股票回購和取消總額為4000億韓元,以履行我們全年的庫存股政策。

  • If we include the KRW150 billion of share buyback in January 2025, the total amount of Treasury stock that will be canceled by February 2025 is KRW650 billion. Going forward, we will continue to build on our strong financial stability and flexibly respond to capital-related regulatory changes while fulfilling our promise to corporate value of plans through efficient capital ratio management and proactive shareholder return.

    如果加上2025年1月的1,500億韓元股票回購,截至2025年2月將註銷的庫存股總額將達到6,500億韓元。展望未來,我們將繼續鞏固強大的財務穩定性,靈活應對與資本相關的監管變化,同時透過高效的資本比率管理和積極的股東回報來履行我們對規劃企業價值的承諾。

  • Next on page 6, you'll find key profit metrics for the group, so please read through them at your leisure. On page 7, let me explain about the detailed business results of the group. The group's interest income grew 5.4% YoY despite the overall deterioration in profitability due to lower market interest rates. This was due to the fact that interest earning asset growth effect was maintained throughout the year led by the Korean won loans of the bank.

    接下來在第 6 頁,您將看到該集團的關鍵利潤指標,因此請在閒暇時仔細閱讀。在第7頁,我來解釋一下該集團的詳細業務成果。儘管由於市場利率下降導致獲利能力整體惡化,但該集團的利息收入年增5.4%。這是由於該行以韓元貸款為主導的生息資產成長效應全年得以維持。

  • The bank's Korean won loans grew 10.3% annually, driving interest income growth. However, during the fourth quarter, household lending contracted by 0.9% due to regulatory issues, environment and seasonal factors, and corporate loans grew only by 0.9%, as well led by blue-chip companies.

    該銀行韓元貸款年增10.3%,帶動利息收入成長。不過,第四季度,受監管問題、環境和季節性因素影響,家庭貸款收縮了0.9%,企業貸款也僅增加了0.9%,且由藍籌公司領漲。

  • The 2025 year plan is aligned with the group's corporate value enhancement plan, and prioritizing capital efficiency and asset quality through real demand driven qualitative growth. Given the group's planned RWA cap for the year, the bank will manage the portfolio with the view toward enhancing the Group's ROTCE, and, in particular, through the banks of funding-driven growth approach, the bank will continue to focus on efficient growth during periods of falling interest rate while defending profitability to the utmost.

    2025年計畫與集團的企業價值提升計畫一致,透過現實需求驅動的質的成長,優先考慮資本效率和資產品質。考慮到集團今年的計劃 RWA 上限,銀行將以提高集團的 ROTCE 為目標來管理投資組合,特別是透過銀行的資金驅動增長方式,銀行將繼續專注於利率下降期間的高效增長,同時最大限度地維護盈利能力。

  • Through the fourth quarter, the bank's NIM declined only 4 bps QoQ to post 1.52% despite the impact of lower market interest rates. The bank's loan interest rate fell 14 basis points, reflecting lower market rates, but interest expense ratio improved by 10 basis points QoQ, driven by the repricing of time deposits and debt portfolio streamlining. Going forward, based on flexible interest rate policies and the funding environment, strategic ALM operations will be leveraged to proactively defend against the NIM decline.

    第四季度,儘管受到市場利率下降的影響,該銀行的淨利差僅較上季下降 4 個基點至 1.52%。該行貸款利率下降14個基點,反映市場利率下降,但受定期存款重新定價和債務組合精簡的推動,利息支出率環比改善10個基點。未來我們將結合彈性的利率政策和融資環境,透過策略性資產負債管理操作,積極防範淨利差下滑。

  • Next is page 8. The group noninterest income declined only by 5.0% YoY as we cope with the growing volatility in the capital market, backed by the solid growth in fee income. Fee income grew 2.6% YoY despite the lower credit card-related income, owing to the higher marketing expenses. This was due to the continuing inflow of IB deals throughout the year as well as the active financial product sales based on wealth management sales capabilities.

    接下來是第 8 頁。受費用收入穩健成長的支撐,我們有效應對了資本市場波動加劇的影響,集團非利息收入較去年同期僅下降5.0%。儘管信用卡相關收入較低,但由於行銷費用增加,費用收入較去年同期成長2.6%。這是由於全年 IB 交易的持續流入以及基於財富管理銷售能力的積極金融產品銷售。

  • However, gains on securities and derivatives decreased by 7.3% YoY due to increased capital market volatility, impairment of securities recognized during the year to secure future loss absorption capacity and the one-off loss Shinhan securities in the third quarter. Increase of SG&A expense kept at 3.7% YoY. Despite the ERP program scale up and is being well managed and the group CIR posted 41.7% similar to last year with operating income before expenses increasing by 2.9%.

    然而,由於資本市場波動加劇、年內為確保未來損失吸收能力而確認的證券減損以及第三季新韓證券的一次性損失,證券及衍生性商品收益年減 7.3%。銷售、一般及行政開支年增幅維持在3.7%。儘管 ERP 專案規模不斷擴大且管理良好,集團 CIR 與去年同期相比增長了 41.7%,扣除費用前的營業收入增長了 2.9%。

  • The group's NPL ratio for the year improved 10 basis points YoY to post 47 bps despite proactive loss recognition related to real estate financing, among others, driven by preemptive additional provisioning and efforts to improve asset quality.

    儘管在提前提取額外撥備和努力改善資產品質的推動下,該集團主動確認了與房地產融資等相關的損失,但全年不良貸款率仍同比改善了 10 個基點,至 47 個基點。

  • Next, moving on to page 9, in terms of our indicators for asset quality, thanks to proactive write-offs and NPL sales indicators have been stable and under close monitoring. Our bank delinquency ratio has remained flat after improving past the first quarter. Card delinquency maintained downward trends throughout the year, but rose again to a level similar to the end of the prior year. Leading indicator for proved delinquencies is the two months delinquency migration rate for credit cards, and it showed improvement after Q1, but more recently has started to rise again.

    接下來第 9 頁,就我們的資產品質指標而言,由於主動核銷和不良貸款銷售,指標一直保持穩定並受到密切監控。我們的銀行拖欠率在第一季有所改善之後一直保持穩定。信用卡拖欠率全年保持下降趨勢,但又回升至與前一年末相似的水平。已證實拖欠的領先指標是信用卡兩個月拖欠遷移率,該指標在第一季後有所改善,但最近又開始上升。

  • Despite two policy rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2024, interest rates will remain high, and the perceived economic recovery is also quite slow, which is why we will continue to be vigilant, maintaining a conservative stance in the management of asset quality. Please refer to the size for breakdown of net income by affiliate and a status update on real estate PF loans.

    儘管2024年第四季有兩次政策降息,但利率仍將維持在高位,而且預期的經濟復甦也相當緩慢,這就是為什麼我們將繼續保持警惕,在資產品質管理方面保持保守的立場。請參閱附屬公司的淨收入明細規模和房地產 PF 貸款的狀態更新。

  • Next slide, as of the end of 2024, our tentative CET1 ratio is 13.03%, down 14 basis points QoQ. The drop was due a KRW5.8 trillion increase in group RWA due to growth in FX assets driven by depreciation of the won. In 2025, we will continue to manage RWA at appropriate levels and leveraging our stable financial performance, we are targeting a CET1 of 13% or more on a sustained basis. In terms of shareholder returns, we'll explain again in greater detail when we take you through our 2025 outlook.

    下一張投影片,截至 2024 年底,我們的暫定 CET1 比率為 13.03%,季減 14 個基點。下降的原因是韓元貶值導致外匯資產成長,導致集團風險加權資產增加 5.8 兆韓元。2025年,我們將繼續將風險加權資產管理於適當水平,並憑藉穩定的財務表現,將核心一級資本充足率持續維持在13%或以上。在股東回報方面,當我們向您介紹2025年展望時,我們將再次更詳細地解釋。

  • Page 11 shows the current status of our global overseas business. In 2024, overseas net income was KRW758.9 billion, up 38.1% year on year. Net income contribution from overseas reached a record high of 16.8%. This is possible not only due to the impact of FX rates, but also thanks to our long-standing efforts around localized sales and internal control, especially in Vietnam and Japan, which has delivered sustainable results.

    第11頁顯示了我們全球海外業務的現況。2024年海外淨收入為7,589億韓元,年增38.1%。海外淨收入貢獻率達16.8%,創歷史新高。這不僅是由於外匯匯率的影響,而且還歸功於我們長期以來在本地化銷售和內部控制方面的努力,特別是在越南和日本,並取得了可持續的成果。

  • Based on strategy of selective concentration and efficiency-driven growth, we will continue to shape and deliver good performance from global as a new driver for growth.

    我們將本著選擇性集中和效率驅動成長的策略,繼續塑造和創造全球良好業績,作為新的成長動力。

  • Pages 12 and 13 are details of our digital and sustainable management initiatives. So please refer to those slides. Page 14, let me move on to our outlook for 2025. First, I will invite Director Go Yousun from our Future Strategy Research Institute to present our outlook on the business environment.

    第 12 和 13 頁詳細介紹了我們的數位化和永續管理措施。因此請參閱那些幻燈片。第 14 頁,讓我繼續談談我們對 2025 年的展望。首先,請本公司未來策略研究所高有順所長介紹經營環境的展望。

  • Yousun Go - Head of Future Strategy Research

    Yousun Go - Head of Future Strategy Research

  • Yes, good afternoon. In terms of the economic and business management outlook for 2025, I'd like to first touch upon GDP growth. Initially, we had forecast 1.8% growth in 2025. However, with the launch of the Trump administration, trading conditions have deteriorated. As you know, domestic political uncertainty is also escalating and is weighing on the domestic economic conditions very quickly.

    是的,下午好。關於2025年的經濟與企業管理展望,我首先想談談GDP成長。最初,我們預測 2025 年的成長率為 1.8%。然而,隨著川普政府上台,貿易環境開始惡化。眾所周知,國內政治不確定性也不斷升級,並迅速對國內經濟狀況造成壓力。

  • These two factors will potentially weigh on economic growth, which is why we have adjusted our GDP growth projection to mid-1%. Under this outlook, loan or asset growth, the overall environment may be negative. Also in terms of asset quality, we expect a cautious -- more cautious period in terms of managing the quality of our assets.

    這兩個因素可能會對經濟成長造成壓力,這就是我們將GDP成長預測調整至1%中間水準的原因。在這種前景下,貸款或資產成長的整體環境可能為負面。另外,在資產品質方面,我們預期在資產品質管理方面將經歷一個更謹慎的時期。

  • Initially, in 2025, in the FX rates and the household loan issue, we had expected two gradual rate cuts in 2025. But because of the deterioration of the domestic economy, we think that potentially there may be additional rate cut for a total of three. However, the timing and the intensity, the frequency of supplementary budgeting by the authorities can increase monetary policy volatility as well.

    最初,在2025年,在外匯利率和家庭貸款問題上,我們預計2025年將有兩次逐步降息。但由於國內經濟情勢惡化,我們認為可能還會再降息三次。然而,當局補充預算的時機、強度和頻率也會增加貨幣政策的波動性。

  • So we will have to observe developments in terms of the monetary policies. So NIM likely will become squeezed, but then nonbanking and on the asset management side, we do think that there will be more positive drivers supporting stronger performance. In 2024, on the financial markets, FX rates were very unstable. But in 2025, we are expecting more stable FX rate trends.

    因此我們必須觀察貨幣政策方面的發展。因此,淨利差可能會受到擠壓,但在非銀行和資產管理方面,我們確實認為會有更多積極的驅動因素來支持更強勁的績效。2024年,金融市場上的外匯匯率非常不穩定。但在 2025 年,我們預期外匯匯率趨勢將更加穩定。

  • Depending on the monetary policies of the US has led to greater interest rate differential. There are different political risk factors surrounding the presidential elections, et cetera, in 2024. However, these variables have already been played out. So we do not think that they will drive depreciation of the Korean won this year. However, the dollar-won is not likely to stabilize quickly below KRW1,400 given the strength of the dollar.

    依賴美國貨幣政策導致利差擴大。2024 年總統大選等存在不同的政治風險因素。然而,這些變數已經顯現。因此我們認為他們今年不會導致韓元貶值。不過,鑑於美元的強勢,美元兌韓元不太可能迅速穩定在 1,400 韓元以下。

  • The Trump policies -- the US first-type policies are likely to continue to support a strong dollar. So for the time being, we think that the dollar-won will likely trade around the KRW1,400 range. However, what is positive is, as I've said, any dramatic depreciation of the Korean won, I think is unlikely, and this has been played out. Lastly, on the real estate market, by region, we are seeing differentiated trends, and we expect that going forward.

    川普政策—美國第一類政策很可能繼續支撐強勢美元。因此,目前我們認為美元兌韓元可能將在 1,400 韓元左右波動。不過,正面的一面是,正如我所說,我認為韓元大幅貶值的可能性不大,而且這已經發生了。最後,在房地產市場,按地區劃分,我們看到了差異化的趨勢,我們預計未來也會如此。

  • The economy being weak and lending conditions also not increasing, the likelihood of any hike in pricing is low. However, given inflationary pressure and weak supply, the possibility of a significant drop in housing price is also unlikely. Financial institutions struggled with PF loan exposure in 2022 as the construction sector declined and then 2023, '24 saw increase in distress. But I think we're past the peak, and we will be passing through the tunnel this year. The government provided the framework for PF loan restructuring, and this will kick in.

    經濟疲軟,貸款條件也沒有改善,價格上漲的可能性很低。不過,考慮到通膨壓力以及供給疲弱,房價大幅下跌的可能性也不大。由於建築業的衰退,金融機構在 2022 年面臨 PF 貸款風險,而在 2023 年和 2024 年,困境加劇。但我認為我們已經過了高峰,今年我們將走過隧道。政府提供了公共財政貸款重組的框架,並將開始實施。

  • And so we think that gradual restructuring will play out instead of triggering additional distress. So compared to 2024, we think overall, the source of uncertainty will be less in the real estate market than the prior year. So that is my quick outlook on the overall business environment.

    因此我們認為重組將會逐步進行,而不會引發額外的困擾。因此,與 2024 年相比,我們認為整體而言,房地產市場的不確定性來源將比前一年減少。這就是我對整體商業環境的快速看法。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you for the presentation. We'll move on to our earnings outlook on page 16 and also our capital management plans. 2025 will be the first year of executing on our corporate value plan in real terms. And we will place priority on achieving growth around the perspective return on capital. We're enforcing stronger RWA budgeting among subsidiaries as well as tighter penalties to institutionalize more fundamental change.

    感謝您的演講。我們將在第 16 頁討論我們的獲利前景以及我們的資本管理計劃。 2025年將是我們真正執行企業價值計畫的第一年。我們將優先考慮實現圍繞資本回報率的成長。我們正在對子公司實施更嚴格的 RWA 預算以及更嚴厲的處罰,以使更根本的變革製度化。

  • This will mean that our RWA growth path for this year, as you can see on the right, will likely unfold differently than before. There are many variables, but our basic assumption is three policy rates cuts. And we're expecting trend decline in bank NIM and weak interest in comp, but we will be responding strategically.

    這意味著,我們今年的 RWA 成長路徑(如您在右側看到的)可能會與以前有所不同。變數有很多,但我們的基本假設是三次降息。我們預期銀行淨利差將呈下降趨勢,且同店銷售額將呈現疲軟趨勢,但我們將採取策略應對。

  • For non-interest income, our loss absorbing capacity has improved last year, and we're expecting an even more significant improvement this year. During a period of falling interest rates, we expect an increase in gains from securities, our revamped WM business will also boost retail fee income with wholesale fee income from the IB business also starting to gain full scale momentum. Through efficient management of SG&A, we'll continue to strengthen our group-wide cost savings initiatives and maintain group CIR in the low 40% level on a continuous basis.

    對於非利息收入,我們的損失吸收能力去年有所改善,我們預計今年將會有更顯著的改善。在利率下降期間,我們預期證券收益將增加,我們改善的財富管理業務也將提高零售費用收入,而來自 IB 業務的批發費用收入也開始全面成長。透過有效管理銷售、一般及行政費用,我們將繼續加強整個集團的成本節約舉措,並持續將集團成本回報率維持在 40% 以下的水平。

  • Lastly, by maintaining a conservative risk management stance as we have, we seek to manage group credit cost against a target of mid-30 basis points, which is lower versus last year. By pursuing growth that takes into consideration return on capital and RWA and by boosting noninterest income from our wealth management and IB business, we will improve our underlying fundamentals and maintain group CET1 level at stable 13% or more as we have done so far. Now moving on to Page 17, our shareholder return policy. Our shareholder return ratio for 2024 was 39.6%, reflecting KRW1.1 trillion in dividends and KRW700 billion in share buybacks. In 2025, our quarterly cash dividend of KRW571 per share, combined with additional KRW650 billion in share buybacks that were announced means KRW1.75 trillion will be mobilized to fund shareholder returns.

    最後,透過保持保守的風險管理立場,我們尋求將集團信貸成本管理在 30 個基點中間的目標水平,這一目標低於去年。透過追求考慮資本回報率和風險加權資產的成長,並透過提高財富管理和 IB 業務的非利息收入,我們將改善基本面,並將集團 CET1 水準維持在穩定的 13% 或以上,就像我們迄今為止所做的那樣。現在請看第 17 頁,我們的股東回報政策。我們 2024 年的股東報酬率為 39.6%,其中股利 1.1 兆韓元,股票回購 7,000 億韓元。2025年,我們的季度現金股利為每股571韓元,加上已宣布的額外6,500億韓元股票回購,意味著將調動1.75兆韓元用於為股東回報提供資金。

  • We'll continue to carry out flexible share buyback policies depending on our capital ratio and expect to deliver stronger shareholder returns versus the prior year. Page 19 shows results our value-up plan assessment. While recovering the most important indicator measuring profitability has not yet materialized, 2025 will mark the groundbreaking year one in terms of our group value-up plan, it will actively mobilize the full capacity of the entire group to improve our key indicators. As of the end of July last year, we preemptively disclosed a proactive corporate value-up program with a high degree of visibility and commitment. We have been taking the initiative to drive value-up momentum on the cost-mix change and among financial stocks.

    我們將繼續根據資本比率實施彈性的股票回購政策,並期望實現比前一年更強勁的股東回報。第 19 頁顯示了我們的增值計畫評估結果。雖然衡量獲利能力的最重要指標的恢復尚未實現,但2025年將是我們集團價值提升計畫的開創性一年,它將積極調動整個集團的全部能力來改善我們的關鍵指標。截至去年7月底,我們已預先揭露了一項具有高度透明度和承諾度的積極主動的企業價值提升計畫。我們一直積極推動成本結構變化和金融股的價值上升勢頭。

  • In terms of implementation, we are committed to producing consistent and exemplary results, and we'll work hard to enhance value for all stakeholders and contribute to advancing Korean's capital markets. Also, we'll be providing a new disclosure sometime after the first quarter to supplement our value-up plan further in terms of detailed implementation plans, proposed improvements to our compensation, valuation schemes, et cetera. Please refer to Page 20 for details on the financial status of other group companies and other business metrics. Thank you for your attention. This concludes our presentation, and we'll move on to the Q&A.

    在實施方面,我們致力於取得一致、示範性的成果,並努力為所有利害關係人提升價值,為推動韓國資本市場的發展做出貢獻。此外,我們將在第一季之後的某個時間提供新的揭露,以進一步補充我們的增值計劃,包括詳細的實施計劃、對我們的薪酬的改進建議、估值方案等。有關其他集團公司的財務狀況和其他業務指標的詳細信息,請參閱第20頁。感謝您的關注。我們的示範到此結束,我們進入問答環節。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • (Event Instructions) Seol Yongjin, SK Securities.

    (事件說明) Seol Yongjin,SK 證券。

  • Yongjin Seol - Analyst

    Yongjin Seol - Analyst

  • So on your performance, the non-bank subsidiary performance I have a question. If you look at our Q4 performance, there was a poor performance, especially I think security and capital as well as trust business, I think, software. What was the reasons for this sluggish performance?

    所以對於你們的表現,非銀行子公司的表現,我有一個疑問。如果你看看我們第四季的業績,你會發現業績表現不佳,尤其是安全和資本以及信託業務,還有軟體。造成這種表現低迷的原因是什麼?

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • While we are preparing to answer to your question, please wait for a few seconds.

    我們正在準備回答您的問題,請等待幾秒鐘。

  • Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • I'm the CFO, Chun Sang Yung. The reason for the sluggish performance of the nonbank subsidiaries for internally. While looking back on the whole year last year, we looked at the performance of the non-banking subsidiaries, we found that quite regrettable, especially among the individual subsidiaries. In the case of asset trust, as we have noted during our quarterly earnings presentation, as the completion guaranteed type of trust, we continue to satisfy provisions, and so losses were incurred. And so the overall provisioning was, as said, at the most conservative level.

    我是財務長 Chun Sang Yung。非銀行子公司業績表現不佳的原因有內部因素。回顧去年全年,我們看非銀行子公司的表現,尤其看個別子公司的表現,確實令人遺憾。就資產信託而言,正如我們在季度收益報告中指出的那樣,作為完成保證類型的信託,我們繼續滿足規定,因此產生了損失。因此,正如所說,整體撥備處於最保守的水平。

  • That was reflected because of that. The performance of the company is as it is. It's about minus KRW300 billion, as we noted in our presentation. But if you look at the details, litigation-related provisioning, on a consolidated basis, there was advancement in provision for litigation and also the tax effect. So actually, if we consider all that, the minus level for the asset trust is about KRW150 billion.

    這是因為那件事而反映出來的。公司的業績就這樣。正如我們在報告中指出的,這個數字約為負 3000 億韓元。但如果你看一下細節,即訴訟相關的準備金,在合併基礎上,訴訟準備金和稅收影響都有所增加。因此實際上,如果我們考慮所有這些因素,資產信託的負數水準約為 1500 億韓元。

  • In the case of capital, there was a provision for real estate that was reflected. And because of the high interest rate, the funding rate has gone up. And also the biggest reason for the capital performance this time is because among all of its assets, about 40% -- it has investment assets for 40%. And among that assets, the investment management results combined with the market situation compared to the prior year, yes, the investment returns have fallen, that was reflected and the real estate PF provision. Unlike these provisions as the market recovers, this can be recovered. In the case of securities, last year, we had one-off losses from ETF LP incident and also among our past investments, alternative investments, those losses were reflected in a conservative manner.

    在資本方面,有一項反映房地產撥備。而且由於利率高,資金利率也上升了。而這次資本表現最好的一個原因,就是因為在其全部資產當中,大概有40%是投資資產,佔40%。在這些資產中,投資管理結果與市場狀況相結合,與前一年相比,投資收益有所下降,這反映在房地產 PF 撥備中。與這些規定不同,隨著市場復甦,這是可以恢復的。就證券而言,去年我們因ETF LP事件遭受了一次性損失,而且在我們過去的投資、另類投資中,這些損失都以保守的方式反映出來。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Mr. Kang Seunggun, KB Securities.

    KB證券的Kang Seunggun先生。

  • Seunggun Kang - Analyst

    Seunggun Kang - Analyst

  • Thank you for the opportunity to ask two questions. First, historically, on average, RWA growth was about 7% or so. This year, you said you want to manage it under 5%. So what -- will there be some parts that decrease? So what parts of the business, the group will see reduced RWA this year?

    感謝您給我這個機會兩個問題。首先,從歷史上看,平均而言,RWA 成長率約為7%左右。今年你說要把成長率控制在5%以下。那麼,會不會有些部分減少呢?那麼,今年集團哪些業務領域的 RWA 會減少呢?

  • ROI, our other capital ratios, we will have to look at them with greater detail. So for insurance, securities and capital, what is the total size of RWA? They are not disclosed at the moment. So as of the end of 2024, could you share the RWA status for the different subsidiaries?

    投資報酬率(ROI)是我們的其他資本比率,我們必須更詳細地研究它們。那麼對於保險、證券和資本來說,RWA的總規模是多少呢?目前尚未披露。那麼截至 2024 年底,您能分享不同子公司的 RWA 狀態嗎?

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you. Please wait just one moment as we prepare to answer.

    謝謝。請稍等片刻,我們正在準備答案。

  • Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • This is the Group CFO. In terms of asset growth, so you asked about different drivers. And you also asked about RWA for the different subsidiaries. So let me cover the second question first very briefly. So if there are any inaccuracies in the data, I think we can check back with the IR team.

    這是集團財務長。在資產成長方面,您詢問了不同的驅動因素。您也詢問了不同子公司的風險加權資產 (RWA)。因此,讓我先簡要地回答第二個問題。因此,如果數據有任何不準確之處,我認為我們可以與 IR 團隊核對。

  • But for the bank, as of the fourth quarter, RWA balance was about total KRW212 trillion, and then card was KRW40.8 trillion, securities KRW34.9 trillion, capital KRW18.3 trillion. And for further details, if you need more details, I think we can cover that later. I think you mentioned asset growth. In my view, it's not that we want to reduce assets, but it's a matter of shifting our growth path. So we want to follow a different RWA growth trajectory and have a strategy of selective concentration.

    但就該銀行而言,截至第四季度,RWA 餘額總計約為 212 兆韓元,其中卡片餘額為 40.8 兆韓元,證券餘額為 34.9 兆韓元,資本餘額為 18.3 兆韓元。至於更多細節,如果您需要更多細節,我想我們可以稍後介紹。我想您提到了資產成長。我認為,我們並不是想要減少資產,而是要轉變成長路徑。因此,我們希望遵循不同的 RWA 成長軌跡,並採取選擇性集中的策略。

  • So for household and corporate loan due to the regulatory environment and also the macro environment, it will be quite difficult to expect any outsized growth like in the past. So even for corporate loans, because rates will likely go down, I think there will be reduced demand for bank loans, as they can access funding from the capital markets more. So internally, as a policy, the RWA penalties will be tightened and ROTCE and other evaluation metrics will be clarified. And so asset allocation will be done based on ROTCE. And in that case, we can keep RWA under tight control in order to achieve our CET1 target.

    因此,對於家庭和企業貸款而言,由於監管環境和宏觀環境的原因,很難像過去那樣大幅成長。因此,即使對於企業貸款,由於利率可能會下降,我認為對銀行貸款的需求也會減少,因為他們可以更多地從資本市場獲得資金。因此,在內部,作為一項政策,RWA 處罰將會更加嚴厲,ROTCE 和其他評估指標也將更加明確。因此,資產配置將根據 ROTCE 進行。在這種情況下,我們可以嚴格控制 RWA,以實現我們的 CET1 目標。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Won Jaewoong, HSBC.

    匯豐銀行的 Won Jaewoong。

  • Jaewoong Won - Analyst

    Jaewoong Won - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Shareholder return, it is actually more aggressive than was expected. And thank you very much for trying to keep your promise to the market. However, the earnings have fallen. And so the shareholder return ratio has gone up because of that. As earnings go up, then I think it is very important that our shareholder return ratio goes up.

    非常感謝。股東回報實際上比預期的更為激進。非常感謝您努力兌現對市場的承諾。然而,獲利卻下降了。因此股東報酬率也隨之上升。隨著收益的增加,我認為股東報酬率的上升非常重要。

  • In accordance with the growing earnings, during your presentation, the credit cost, you said that you expect your credit cost ratio to fall to the mid 0.3, but the ratio is at 0.47. So about KRW400 billion gain is expected if it goes up by 10 bps.

    隨著盈利的增長,您在介紹信貸成本時表示,預計信貸成本比率將降至 0.3 中間,但目前該比率為 0.47。因此,如果增加 10 個基點,預計將獲得約 4,000 億韓元的收益。

  • So next year earnings outlook, you said that in terms of real estate, there is not much of provisions that needs to be set aside. So in terms of net income, can we have an optimistic view? In terms of NIM, what is your outlook? So I think this will be very helpful now estimating your earnings for next year.

    那麼明年的獲利展望,您說在房地產方面,需要提列的準備金並不多。那麼從淨收入來看,我們能持樂觀態度嗎?就 NIM 而言,您的前景如何?所以我認為這對於估算您明年的收入非常有幫助。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • So please hold while we prepare the answer to your question.

    請稍候,我們正在準備您問題的答案。

  • Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Let me answer the question. You talked about shareholder returns. As you characterize it as aggressive, but we don't really see it as being aggressive. Last year, when we announced our corporate value-up plan, as we have alluded, our plan is very intuitive. It's very visible.

    讓我來回答這個問題。您談到了股東回報。正如你將其描述為具有攻擊性,但我們不認為它具有攻擊性。去年,當我們宣布我們的企業價值提升計劃時,正如我們所提到的,我們的計劃非常直觀。這非常明顯。

  • I've already said that. And if you look at the plan, the target for shareholder return ratio was presented. And separately, a 3-year plan for share cancelation was also presented. So the path that we're taking right now is actually following the trajectory that was outlined in that plan. So as the market is well aware, this year, every year, the size of share cancelation is about KRW1 trillion.

    我已經說過了。如果你看一下該計劃,你會發現其中提出了股東回報率的目標。此外,公司也單獨提出了3年的股權註銷計畫。因此,我們現在所走的路實際上是按照該計劃所概述的軌跡走的。所以正如市場所熟知的,今年,每年的股票取消規模都在1兆韓元左右。

  • I think that is the estimation. So I think we are moving in line with such expectations and plan. With regards to NIM, loan growth, asset growth and credit cost, let me combine that with the outlook for the income. In the fourth quarter in the market, our income was less than the market expectations. And with regards to income potential going forward, I think there were some questions.

    我認為這是估計。所以我認為我們正按照這樣的期望和計劃前進。關於淨利差、貸款成長、資產成長和信貸成本,讓我將其與收入前景結合。在第四季的市場中,我們的收入不如市場預期。關於未來的收入潛力,我認為存在一些問題。

  • But as we have noted during our presentation, starting from Q1, we have constantly maintained that the potential loss burden that we had in the past, we will conservatively reflect that. That refers to overseas real estate and real estate PF, that's what I mean by that. So up until Q4, through external valuation, all-out inspection, we have actually sufficiently reflected all of that in Q4. And because of that, I think the earnings were less than what the market had expected. So this year, going forward, what is your earnings potential going forward? Then 47 bps credit cost ratio coming down 10 bps.

    但正如我們在演示中指出的那樣,從第一季開始,我們始終堅持認為,對於我們過去的潛在損失負擔,我們將保守地反映出來。那是指海外的房地產和房地產PF,我就是這個意思。所以到第四季度為止,透過外部評估、全面檢查,我們實際上已經在第四季度充分反映了所有這些。正因為如此,我認為收益低於市場預期。那麼今年,展望未來,您的獲利潛力有多大?然後47個基點的信貸成本比率下降10個基點。

  • Well, one of the key reasons why our earnings were less than expected was because of asset trust and securities and capital unit was mentioned. And the reason why our earnings were less than expected was because of provisioning. So capital and asset trust is our normalization, not rebound. If there is no large one-off losses, this will create a significant base effect. And also, last year, there was an ELT loss for the bank.

    嗯,我們的獲利低於預期的一個主要原因是資產信託和證券以及資本單位。我們的獲利低於預期的原因是由於撥備。因此,資本和資產信任是我們的常態化,而不是反彈。如果沒有大的一次性損失,這將產生顯著的基數效應。此外,去年該銀行還遭遇了 ELT 損失。

  • If such one-off losses are absent this year, then I think the funnel will come to about KRW1.4 trillion to KRW1.5 trillion. So if that is considered, I think the earnings this year can improve significantly over last year. So in that respect, I think we will be able to more than efficiently manage our CET1 ratio.

    如果今年沒有這樣的一次性損失,那麼我認為損失總額將達到約1.4兆至1.5兆韓元。所以如果考慮到這一點,我認為今年的收益可以比去年有顯著提高。因此從這個方面來看,我認為我們將能夠更有效地管理我們的 CET1 比率。

  • And also through conservative growth, if we also manage the RWA as well, then starting from 2023, we have made a commitment that we will maintain the CET1 ratio to 13% and higher. I think we will be able to more than keep that promise this year. CET1 ratio is 13%, but last year there was the exchange rate issues as well as other variables. So internally, we are targeting a 13.1% going forward internally.

    而且透過保守的成長,如果我們也管理 RWA,那麼從 2023 年開始,我們承諾將把 CET1 比率維持在 13% 及以上。我認為今年我們能夠超額兌現這項承諾。CET1比率是13%,但去年存在匯率問題以及其他變數。因此從內部來看,我們的目標是未來達到 13.1%。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Doha Kim, Hanwha Investment Securities.

    韓華投資證券的 Doha Kim。

  • Doha Kim - Analyst

    Doha Kim - Analyst

  • Mostly about the bank side. So according to -- well, I want to ask about something that was noted on your presentation and then the fact sheets. So on the presentation, you mentioned some one-off items, so some impairment losses, KRW250 billion on some investments. I think mostly it was on the banking side. So noninterest side, well, there was a decrease in some one-off costs, mostly from overseas alternative or derivative-type investments.

    主要是有關銀行方面。所以根據——好吧,我想問一下您在演講和事實說明書中提到的一些事情。所以在示範中,您提到了一些一次性項目,即一些減損損失,一些投資的減損損失為 2500 億韓元。我認為主要還是發生在銀行方面。因此,非利息方面,一些一次性成本有所減少,主要來自海外替代或衍生性商品類型的投資。

  • So my question is fee income. Usually, we see from the nonbanking side, but I think this time it's noted under the bank side. So is there anything in particular that we should know about? And RWA, you said that the depreciating Korean won led to an increase in FX-related assets and the overall impact was around KRW9 trillion or so. So I think that also pertains mostly to the bank side.

    我的問題是費用收入。通常,我們從非銀行方面來看,但我認為這次是從銀行方面來看。那麼有什麼特別的事情是我們該了解的嗎?還有RWA,您說韓元貶值導致外匯相關資產增加,整體影響大概在9兆韓元左右。所以我認為這也主要與銀行方面有關。

  • So the FX-related exposure of the bank, I thought it was not that big. But going forward, the level of sensitivity to FX rates, do you think it will remain at this type of elevated level? Or is there any other factor that can explain?

    因此,我認為該銀行的外匯相關風險敞口並沒有那麼大。但展望未來,您認為對外匯匯率的敏感度水準會維持在這種較高水準嗎?或有其他因素可以解釋嗎?

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Please hold as we prepare the answer. So I think you asked about one-off loss items from security investments by the bank. So the bank CFO will cover that question first. Regarding the bank RWA, I and the CRO will follow up with some comments.

    請稍候,我們正在準備答案。所以我認為您問的是銀行證券投資的一次性損失項目。因此,銀行財務長將首先解答這個問題。關於銀行RWA,我和CRO將會跟進一些評論。

  • Jeong Bin Lee - Chief Financial Officer - Shinhan Bank

    Jeong Bin Lee - Chief Financial Officer - Shinhan Bank

  • Thank you for the good question. My name is Lee Jeong-bin, I'm the bank's CFO. Relative to the third quarter, in the fourth quarter, securities and derivative investments on the bank side did lead to some loss that you asked about overall relative to noninterest income in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, there was a significant drop on a QoQ basis for the bank. In terms of FX rates, before we had issued CVA -- regarding CVA provisioning with depreciation of the loan, there was about KRW100 billion increase in provisioning for past-through securities, and there were some FPPL-related contracts still in effect.

    感謝您提出的這個好問題。我叫李正彬,是這家銀行的財務長。相對於第三季來說,第四季銀行方面證券及衍生性投資確實導致了你問到的第三季整體上相對於非利息收入出現了一些損失。第四季,該行營業收入較上季下降明顯。就外匯匯率而言,在我們發布 CVA 之前——關於貸款折舊的 CVA 撥備,直通證券的撥備增加了約 1000 億韓元,並且一些 FPPL 相關合約仍然有效。

  • So that also led to some exposure. So as FX rates went up overall, the size of gains on the derivative side actually did increase from -- for about KRW100 billion or so. Now impairment loss in terms of principal protected trust contracts, so regarding noninterest income, so when I say securities, it's not our investments, but in the process of accounting for principal-protected trust compared to the prior quarter, there was an increase in impairment loss. So it was more of a one-off rather than being a recurring issue. In the fourth quarter, certain market indicators were weak.

    所以這也導致了一些曝光。因此,隨著外匯匯率整體上升,衍生性商品的收益規模實際上確實增加了約 1,000 億韓元左右。現在,就本金保護信託合約而言,即就非利息收入而言,減損損失,因此當我說證券時,它不是我們的投資,但是在核算本金保護信託的過程中,與上一季度相比,減損損失有所增加。因此,這更像是一個一次性問題,而不是一個反覆出現的問題。第四季度,一些市場指標疲軟。

  • And so security in the FPPL side did see a QoQ decrease. But on a cumulative full year level for securities and dividends, overall gains increased slightly year-on-year. On a full year basis, because of FX rates, there was a drop on the derivative side. So overall, the volatility in noninterest income for the bank is more muted versus elsewhere, but that's per usual. But in the fourth quarter, it was a little bit unusual that we had more volatility because of the FX rates.

    因此,FPPL 方面的安全性確實出現環比下降。但從全年累計證券和股利來看,整體收益較去年同期略有增加。從全年來看,由於外匯匯率的原因,衍生性商品方面有所下降。因此總體而言,該銀行的非利息收入波動性相對於其他銀行而言較小,但這是正常現象。但在第四季度,由於外匯匯率的原因,我們的波動性增加,這有點不尋常。

  • Regarding RWA, for currency assets compared to other banks, it's not significantly more or less than other banks. But as we expand our overall global business, our foreign assets have gradually increased. So due to the rapid rise in FX rates in the fourth quarter, RWA did increase in a more pronounced way. But with rising FX rates, despite the increase in RWA, there's a plus effect from the translation gains on FX investments. So there is an offsetting effect as well.

    至於 RWA,對於貨幣資產與其他銀行相比,並沒有明顯多於或少於其他銀行。但隨著我們整體全球業務的擴大,我們的海外資產也逐漸增加。因此,由於第四季外匯匯率的快速上升,風險加權資產確實出現了更明顯的成長。但隨著外匯匯率上升,儘管風險加權資產增加,翻譯收益對外匯投資仍有利作用。因此也存在抵消效應。

  • Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Regarding RWA, well, let me just supplement the comments by the CFO. Derivative loss, as the bank's CFO mentioned, basically, so grew regarding foreign currency assets and liabilities or losses to hedge. So impairment loss or gain are not sizable from any changes in FX rates. However, there were some one-off losses booked in the fourth quarter.

    關於 RWA,好吧,讓我補充一下財務長的評論。衍生性商品損失,正如該銀行的財務長所提到的,基本上,都是外幣資產與負債或對沖損失的成長。因此,外匯匯率的任何變動都不會導致減損損失或收益的大幅增加。不過,第四季出現了一些一次性損失。

  • And regarding foreign currency or FX-related RWA, we have said that sensitivity of FX, we've always been talking about that, the sensitive 6 basis points or KRW100. And based on our account closing, we found that last year, there are different currencies. And relative to all currencies, if the Korean won is weaker, the impact from changes to the FX rates becomes ever more amplified. So actually, the sensitivity is more pronounced at 10 basis points per KRW100. If you look at flows actively in the fourth quarter, the KRW4.8 trillion increase in RWA mostly is due to the impact of higher FX rates and then other changes to other assets actually were largely flat in the fourth quarter QoQ.

    關於外幣或與外匯相關的 RWA,我們說過外匯的敏感性,我們一直在談論這個,敏感的 6 個基點或 100 韓元。並且根據我們的帳戶結清情況,我們發現去年有不同的貨幣。相對於所有貨幣,如果韓元貶值,匯率變動的影響就會變得更加明顯。因此實際上,每100韓元10個基點的敏感度更加明顯。如果從活躍資金流動來看,風險加權資產增加 4.8 兆韓元主要是受外匯匯率上漲的影響,而其他資產的其他變化實際上在第四季度環比基本持平。

  • CET1 compared to 13.1% was slightly lower than that because we had to provision more against different losses, more so in the fourth quarter than other orders.

    CET1 與 13.1% 相比略低,因為我們必須針對不同的損失提列更多準備金,第四季度的準備金比其他訂單更多。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • At present, we don't have any questions in the queue. (Operator Instructions) Do Ha Kim, the floor is yours.

    目前,我們隊列中沒有任何問題。(操作員指示)請金道夏 (Do Ha Kim) 發言。

  • Doha Kim - Analyst

    Doha Kim - Analyst

  • So let me ask just 1 more question. Flexible treasury stock policy was indicated, but let me just confirm. So KRW500 billion of share buyback on a half year basis. I think that's quite sizable. Then in the second half, can the quarterly amount be reduced depending on the earnings, should we take such a flexible approach to this?

    因此我再問一個問題。雖然指明了靈活的庫存股政策,但讓我確認一下。因此,每半年回購 5,000 億韓元的股票。我認為這個數字相當大。那麼下半年,可以根據獲利情況來減少季度金額,是否應該採取這樣靈活的方式來處理這個問題?

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you very much for the question. While we prepare the answer, please hold for a few seconds.

    非常感謝您的提問。我們正在準備答案,請稍等幾秒鐘。

  • Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Thank you very much for that question. In the case of the treasury stock, the treasury stock policy was KRW150 billion in January and KRW500 billion this time. So in the first half, it's going to be KRW650 billion. And as I said, on a yearly basis, it's going to be about KRW1 trillion. So we started this approach in last year.

    非常感謝您提出這個問題。就庫存股而言,1月庫存股政策為1,500億韓元,此次為5,000億韓元。因此上半年的營收將達到 6,500 億韓元。正如我所說,每年的金額大約是 1 兆韓元。因此我們從去年就開始採用這種方法。

  • And next year as well, without any gap, we're going to cancel our treasury stock in the early part of the year. That's going to be our approach. So on a half yearly basis, we're going to announce our canceling policies. So in the first half, the second half, the January and February plans will also be included in those announcements. When it is underpinned by strong earnings and when RWA is managed as planned, then I think we will be able to follow the trend that we are seeing right now.

    明年也一樣,我們會在年初毫不留情地取消庫存股。這就是我們的方法。因此,每半年我們就會宣布一次我們的取消政策。所以上半年、下半年、一月和二月的計畫也會包含在這些公告中。當它有強勁的獲利支撐,並且 RWA 按計劃進行管理時,我認為我們將能夠遵循目前看到的趨勢。

  • In our view, with regards to treasury stock, every year, we had a target of canceling KRW1 trillion. But depending on the market situation, stock prices, there can be slight variances and our VOD will be discussing these matters and then resolving them.

    我們認為,關於庫存股,我們每年的目標是取消 1 兆韓元。但根據市場狀況、股票價格,可能會​​有細微的差異,我們的 VOD 將討論這些問題並解決它們。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Mr. Tejkiran --, Whiteoak Capital.

    Tejkiran先生-Whiteoak Capital。

  • Tejkiran Magesh - Analyst

    Tejkiran Magesh - Analyst

  • I have two questions, if I may. One is regarding the life subsidiary. Could you help us understand what is the risk of rates affecting the income over there. Do we have a guaranteed yield annuities book, which might get affected if rates go down through spreads compressing or negative spreads? That's question number one.

    如果可以的話,我有兩個問題。一是關於人壽保險。您能否幫助我們了解利率影響那裡收入的風險是什麼?我們是否有保證收益年金帳簿,如果利率因利差壓縮或負利差而下降,該年金帳簿可能會受到影響?這是第一個問題。

  • What is the outlook for the Life subsidiary as rates go down? And the se cond question is to help us understand whether property trading happens at all within the group? And if it does, in what subsidiaries should we expect that in the bank or the securities business? And what would be the sources of funding for this book? Those are my two questions.

    隨著利率下降,人壽子公司的前景如何?第二個問題是為了幫助我們了解集團內部是否有產權交易?如果確實如此,那麼銀行或證券業務的哪些子公司可以實現這一目標?這本書的資金來源是什麼?這是我的兩個問題。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you for the question. Please hold while we prepare the answer. So I think there were two questions. So it did take us a little bit of time to clarify the question. I'm sorry about that.

    感謝您的提問。請稍等,我們正在準備答案。所以我認為有兩個問題。因此我們確實花了一點時間來澄清這個問題。我很抱歉。

  • Regarding the Life subsidiary, the CEO for Shinhan Life will answer. And you asked about the property trading in the second question. So to the extent that I know, I will provide an answer. And if required, we will try to follow up with additional answers. First, I will ask the Life CFO to answer.

    關於人壽子公司的問題,新韓生命保險的執行長將會回答。你在第二個問題中問到的是房地產交易的問題。因此,只要我了解,我就會提供答案。如果需要的話,我們會盡力提供更多答案。首先,我請人壽財務長來回答。

  • Sung-hwan Joo - Chief Financial Officer - Shinhan Life

    Sung-hwan Joo - Chief Financial Officer - Shinhan Life

  • My name is Joo Sung-hwan. Thank you for your question. As you said, in terms of guaranteed yield annuity products, we do not have a big book of those types of products. So almost no impact from lower interest rates. Even if there is a temporary rate cut, because we mostly are invested in fixed income or bonds, I think it will hold steady.

    我的名字是朱成煥。感謝您的提問。正如您所說,就保證收益年金產品而言,我們沒有大量此類產品。因此較低的利率幾乎沒有影響。即使暫時降息,由於我們主要投資固定收益或債券,我認為利率將保持穩定。

  • But then the liability cost, if anything, will go down. So typically, when interest rates go down, actually, we see a slight increase, if anything, in terms of our earnings. And then you asked about the earnings outlook for Life this year, there will be some institutional change that led to a slight drop in P&L this year, but that will fade out next year. So overall, we think that there will be improved earnings versus the prior year. And then regarding the trading question, as a group overall, FPPL bonds, we have KRW37.3 trillion in holdings.

    但不管怎樣,責任成本都會下降。因此通常當利率下降時,我們的收入實際上會略有增加。然後你問到今年人壽的獲利前景,會有一些機構變化導致今年的損益略有下降,但明年這種影響將會逐漸消失。因此總體而言,我們認為獲利將比去年同期有所提高。然後關於交易問題,作為一個整體,我們持有 37.3 兆韓元的 FPPL 債券。

  • So for FPPL, the Shinhan Bank and Shinhan Securities hold about half-half each. And FVOCI, the total is KRW78.1 trillion. Shinhan Bank holds KRW41 trillion, Life holds about KRW34 trillion. If you look at interest rate sensitivity, dropped by 10 basis points for FPPL, there's a movement of KRW90.8 billion. And in OCI, the valuation on bonds is about KRW511.6 billion. In terms of duration, for FPPL, the duration is about 0.53 years; for OCI, about 6.5 years. And if you have any further questions, perhaps you can ask, and we will follow up to supplement the answer.

    因此,對於 FPPL 而言,新韓銀行和新韓證券各持有約一半的股份。而FVOCI總額為78.1兆韓元。新韓銀行持有 41 兆韓元,人壽持有約 34 兆韓元。如果你看一下利率敏感度,FPPL 下降了 10 個基點,則變動額為 908 億韓元。而在OCI,債券估值約為5116億韓元。期限方面,FPPL的期限約為0.53年;對OCI來說,大約需要6.5年。如果您還有其他問題,您可以提出,我們會跟進補充答案。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • We thank you very much for the answer. We'll wait for further questions to come in. So I think we have received all the questions -- rather. It is from CTA Securities, Yumi-san is online.

    我們非常感謝您的回答。我們將等待更多問題的提出。所以我認為我們已經收到了所有問題——相反。是CTA證券的,Yumi先生在線。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Can you hear me well?

    你聽得清楚我說話嗎?

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Yes, please ask your question.

    是的,請提出您的問題。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • I have a question. 13.03% is the CET1 ratio. The bear case scenario is a chance deteriorate further would be the impact on our RWA. So are you coming up with any plans to more effectively manage the RWA? And what is the size of the buffer to RWA? That was my question.

    我有一個問題。 13.03% 為 CET1 比率。悲觀的情況是,情況進一步惡化的可能性將對我們的 RWA 產生影響。那麼,您是否有什麼計劃來更有效地管理 RWA?那麼 RWA 的緩衝區大小是多少呢?這就是我的問題。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Well, we are preparing to answer to your question. Please hold for a few seconds.

    嗯,我們正在準備回答您的問題。請保持幾秒鐘。

  • Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Sang Yeong Cheon - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • I'm sorry, I was not able to hear your question. Well, the CET1 ratio is rather tight. And so or you're asking whether we have measures in place to manage our RWA in this context. In the case of CET1 ratio, we are making estimations by quarter, so our earnings and also plans for RWA management. I do believe that by the quarter, we will be able to achieve the 13.1% level of CET1 ratio.

    抱歉,我聽不到您的問題。嗯,CET1 比率相當嚴格。所以或者你問我們是否有措施在這種情況下管理我們的 RWA。就 CET1 比率而言,我們按季度進行估算,因此我們的收益以及 RWA 管理計劃也是如此。我確實相信,到本季度,我們將能夠實現 13.1% 的 CET1 比率。

  • Other than CET1 -- other than RWA, there are some plans that will allow us to put the capital on the surplus, especially in the first quarter bad PF, because of bad PF, equity securities will lead to a temporary increase. And these will be some of the factors that will lead to a plus for our capital. And also in our view, if the RWA situation becomes tight, then the sell-down of IB and sales are included in our contingency plans, and we can lever them. And our CRO will add to this answer.

    除了 CET1 - 除了 RWA 之外,還有一些計劃可以讓我們將資本放在盈餘上,特別是在第一季的不良 PF,由於不良 PF,股權證券會導致暫時增加。這些都是會為我們的資本帶來好處的一些因素。而且我們認為,如果 RWA 情況變得緊張,那麼 IB 的拋售和銷售也包含在我們的應急計劃中,我們可以利用它們。我們的 CRO 將對此答案進行補充。

  • Dong Gwon Bahng - Chief Risk Officer, Vice President

    Dong Gwon Bahng - Chief Risk Officer, Vice President

  • So I'm CRO. As the CFO had mentioned. So with regards to RWA management optimization of PF capital ratio from that perspective, high-quality growth will be the focus. Already in the fourth quarter, we have experienced already portfolio changes were affected and the risk weight of each assets fell, we experienced that already. So we're going to continue with the same approach.

    所以我是 CRO。正如首席財務官所提到的。因此,從這個角度來看,對於 PF 資本比率的 RWA 管理最佳化,高品質成長將是重點。早在第四季度,我們就已經經歷了投資組合變化受到影響以及各項資產的風險權重下降,我們已經經歷了這一點。因此我們將繼續採用同樣的方法。

  • And for distressed PF, we will be addressing them very promptly and in a speedy manner. And RWA transfer or reduction approaches for these goals, the sell-down that was mentioned by the CFO and the asset securitization and also what we are considering is risk participation, credit transfer transactions are some of the options that we are considering RWA transfer or RWA reduction for this, we are preparing several tools. And if RWA is managed in this manner, then as we have noted the previous year, what we have experienced -- sorry, from what we have explained then, we do believe that we will be able to undertake additional reduction of the RWA. I hope this has provided a sufficient answer to your question.

    對於陷入困境的 PF,我們將迅速、及時地予以解決。為了實現這些目標,風險加權資產轉移或削減方法包括財務長提到的減持和資產證券化,以及我們正在考慮的風險參與和信用轉移交易,這些都是我們正在考慮的風險加權資產轉移或削減的一些選項,為此,我們正在準備幾種工具。如果以這種方式管理 RWA,那麼正如我們在前一年所指出的那樣,我們的經歷 - 抱歉,從我們當時的解釋來看,我們確實相信我們將能夠進一步減少 RWA。我希望這能充分回答您的問題。

  • Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

    Cheol Wu Park - IR Contact Officer

  • Our time is almost up. We don't have any further questions in the queue. So if you don't have any additional questions, then with this we would like to conclude the 2024 full year earnings presentation for Shinhan Financial Group. So with this, the 2024 full year earnings presentation of Shinhan Financial Group is concluded.

    我們的時間快到了。我們沒有其他問題了。因此,如果您沒有其他問題,那麼我們想就此結束新韓金融集團 2024 年全年獲利報告。至此,新韓金融集團2024年全年獲利報告結束。

  • Not only the earnings presentation, but through various routes, we will be communicating with investors, shareholders and the market participants in order to further your understanding of our group. What has been presented today will be uploaded to our homepage as well as our IR YouTube. Thank you very much.

    除了獲利報告外,我們還將透過各種途徑與投資者、股東和市場參與者進行溝通,以進一步加深您對我們集團的了解。今天展示的內容將上傳到我們的主頁以及 IR YouTube。非常感謝。

  • Editor

    Editor

  • Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.

    本記錄中的英文陳述是由現場翻譯說出的。翻譯由贊助此活動的公司提供。