Shenandoah Telecommunications Co (SHEN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Shenandoah Telecommunications first quarter 2025. Earnings conference call.

    大家早安。歡迎來到 Shenandoah Telecommunications 2025 年第一季。收益電話會議。

  • Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Kirk Andrews, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis for Shenandoah.

    今天的會議正在錄製中。現在,我將會議交給 Shenandoah 財務規劃和分析總監 Kirk Andrews 先生。

  • Kirk Andrews - Director of Financial Planning and Analysis

    Kirk Andrews - Director of Financial Planning and Analysis

  • Good morning and thank you for joining us. The purpose of today's call is to review Shenandoah's results for first quarter of 2025. Our results were announced in a press release distributed this morning, and the presentation we'll be reviewing is included on the investor page at our Shenandoah.com website.

    早安,感謝您加入我們。今天電話會議的目的是回顧 Shenandoah 2025 年第一季的業績。我們的業績已在今天上午發布的新聞稿中公佈,我們將要審查的簡報包含在我們 Shenandoah.com 網站的投資者頁面上。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • With us on the call today are Chris French, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ed McKay, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Jim Volk, Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO.

    今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長克里斯‧弗倫奇 (Chris French)、執行副總裁兼營運長 Ed McKay 和財務高級副總裁兼財務長吉姆‧沃克 (Jim Volk)。

  • After our prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As always, let me refer you to slide two of the presentation, which contains our safe harbor disclaimer, and remind you that this conference call may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties.

    在我們準備好發言之後,我們將進行問答環節。像往常一樣,請允許我向您推薦簡報的第二張投影片,其中包含我們的安全港免責聲明,並提醒您,本次電話會議可能包含受某些風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述。

  • These may cause our actual results to differ materially from the statements.

    這些可能會導致我們的實際結果與聲明有重大差異。

  • Therefore, we have provided detailed discussion of various risk factors in our SEC filings which you are encouraged to review.

    因此,我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細討論了各種風險因素,並鼓勵您查閱。

  • You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

    請注意不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述,除非法律要求,否則我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Chris. Go ahead, Chris.

    現在,我將把電話轉給克里斯。繼續吧,克里斯。

  • Christopher French - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher French - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Kurt. We appreciate everyone joining us this morning and I hope everyone is well. We're pleased with our results for the first quarter of 2025 with growth or subscriber improvements across all lines of business.

    謝謝,庫爾特。我們感謝今天早上加入我們的各位,我希望大家一切安好。我們對 2025 年第一季的業績感到滿意,所有業務線均實現了成長或用戶數量增加。

  • Highlights for the quarter are listed on slide four.

    第四張幻燈片列出了本季的亮點。

  • First, we had another solid quarter of rapid growth in our glow fiber expansion markets. We added 5,400 new subscribers and 16,600 new passings and increased revenues by 52% over the same period in 2024.

    首先,我們的發光纖維擴張市場又經歷了一個快速成長的穩健季度。與 2024 年同期相比,我們增加了 5,400 名新用戶和 16,600 名新用戶,營收成長了 52%。

  • As we enter the last 20 months of the investment phase of our expansion, we're very excited about the growth prospects these greenfield markets will contribute to shareholder value. While we have reported on our track record of ramping up the number of passings, customers, and revenue for the past few years, we're also very excited about the potential free cash flow generation.

    隨著我們進入擴張投資階段的最後 20 個月,我們對這些綠地市場將為股東價值帶來的成長前景感到非常興奮。雖然我們已經報告了過去幾年來客流量、顧客數量和收入不斷增加的記錄,但我們對潛在的自由現金流產生也感到非常興奮。

  • As an example, our mature market cohorts from Fourth quarter 2019 through Third quarter 2023 represent 51,000 customers with an average penetration rate of 25%.

    例如,從 2019 年第四季到 2023 年第三季度,我們的成熟市場群體代表 51,000 名客戶,平均滲透率為 25%。

  • These mature cohorts generated free cash flow margins of over 40% during the first quarter of 2025 after considering the cost to connect new customers and maintenance cap backs. We expect these free cash flow margins to expand as we approach our average terminal penetration rate of 37%.

    在考慮了連接新客戶和維護上限的成本後,這些成熟群體在 2025 年第一季產生了超過 40% 的自由現金流利潤率。我們預計,隨著我們接近 37% 的平均終端滲透率,這些自由現金流利潤率將會擴大。

  • We believe this is an underappreciated value of our business and will be a catalyst for share price appreciation.

    我們認為這是我們業務被低估的價值,並將成為股價上漲的催化劑。

  • We also saw improvement in our incumbent broadband business as we returned to positive data RGU growth driven by 31 basis point reduction in churn to 1.36% and ramping subscriber penetration in our newly constructed passings in unserved areas.

    我們的現有寬頻業務也得到了改善,資料 RGU 成長恢復正成長,這得益於客戶流失率降低了 31 個基點至 1.36%,以及在未服務地區新建線路的用戶滲透率不斷提高。

  • Our customers are reacting favorably to the enhanced rate plans and value propositions we introduced in the past year. Despite the elevated capital expenditures and constructing fiber to unserved homes with various government grant subsidy programs, we expect to generate free cash flow in this mature line of business in 2025.

    我們的客戶對我們在過去一年推出的增強型費率方案和價值主張反應良好。儘管資本支出增加,並利用各種政府補助計劃為未覆蓋家庭建設光纖,但我們預計到 2025 年,這條成熟的業務線將產生自由現金流。

  • Lastly, our commercial sales team had a record quarter for sales bookings of just under 200,000 in monthly recurring revenues.

    最後,我們的商業銷售團隊創下了季度銷售訂單記錄,每月經常性收入接近 200,000。

  • While we still have work to do in accelerating service delivery and improving the quality of service for our carrier customers in our markets, sales bookings are an early indicator of future revenue growth accelerating with that, I'll now turn the call over to Jim and review the details of our financial results.

    雖然我們仍需努力加快服務交付並提高我們市場上的運營商客戶的服務質量,但銷售預訂是未來收入增長加速的早期指標,現在我將把電話轉給吉姆並審查我們的財務結果的細節。

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,克里斯,大家早安。

  • Before I review our financial results, please note that we changed the reporting of promotional discounts and certain revenues across our products and lines of business to better conform with industry practice. These changes are revenue neutral but do impact certain lines of business revenue disclosures and non-gap metrics like average revenue per unit or RPO.

    在我審查我們的財務結果之前,請注意,我們改變了我們產品和業務線的促銷折扣和某些收入的報告方式,以更好地符合行業慣例。這些變化對收入沒有影響,但確實會影響某些業務線的收入揭露和非差距指標,如每單位平均收入或 RPO。

  • We have updated the presentation of prior year revenues, R and RGUs to conform with the reporting changes for comparability purposes.

    我們已更新上一年收入、R 和 RGUs 的呈現方式,以符合報告變化,從而實現可比性。

  • Please see slide 21 and slide 22 in the appendix to the earnings call deck for the last two pages of the earning release that we posted to our investor relations website this morning for 2024 revenue and metrics details under the prior and current reporting.

    請參閱收益電話會議附錄中的投影片 21 和投影片 22,這是我們今天早上發佈到投資者關係網站上的收益報告的最後兩頁,其中介紹了之前和當前報告下的 2024 年收入和指標詳情。

  • I'll now start on slide six for our financial results for the First quarter 2025.

    我現在從第六張投影片開始介紹我們 2025 年第一季的財務表現。

  • Revenues grew 27% to $87.9 million. The former Horizon markets contributed $15.2 million of revenue.

    營收成長 27% 至 8,790 萬美元。前 Horizo​​​​n 市場貢獻了 1520 萬美元的收入。

  • Excluding horizon revenues grew $3.5 million or 5% over the first quarter of 2024. Legacy Globe fiber markets revenue grew $5.6 million, or 47%, driven by an increase in subscribers.

    不包括 Horizo​​n 收入,2024 年第一季成長了 350 萬美元,即 5%。由於用戶數量的增加,Legacy Globe 光纖市場收入增加了 560 萬美元,增幅為 47%。

  • The Legacy glow fiber revenue growth was partially offset by a decline in incumbent broadband markets revenue of $2.2 million, primarily due to 14% decline in video RTUs due to customers switching to streaming video services and lower installation and equipment revenues.

    傳統光纜收入的成長被現有寬頻市場收入下降 220 萬美元部分抵消,這主要是由於客戶轉向串流視訊服務導致視訊 RTU 下降 14%,以及安裝和設備收入下降。

  • Adjusted EBITDA from 43% to $27.6 million. The former Horizon markets contributed $4.4 million of adjusted EBITDA. Excluding Horizon, adjusted EBITDA grew $4 million or 21% from the same period a year ago.

    調整後的 EBITDA 從 43% 增至 2,760 萬美元。前 Horizo​​​​n 市場貢獻了 440 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。不包括 Horizo​​n,調整後的 EBITDA 較去年同期成長 400 萬美元,增幅為 21%。

  • Adjusted EBITDA the margins increased from 28% in the first quarter of 2024 to 31% in the first quarter 2025, driven by the high incremental margins of adding low fiber subscribers and an additional $2.8 million of Horizon synergy savings being realized.

    調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率從 2024 年第一季的 28% 增長至 2025 年第一季的 31%,這得益於增加低光纖用戶的高增量利潤率以及 Horizo​​​​n 協同效應額外節省的 280 萬美元。

  • We expect to realize a total of $8.5 million of incremental synergies in 2025 as previously guided.

    我們預計到 2025 年將實現總計 850 萬美元的增量協同效應,正如之前所預測的那樣。

  • I'd now like to update you on our liquidity and depositions on slide seven.

    現在,我想在第七張投影片上向您介紹我們的流動性和存款情況。

  • Liquidity was $335 million as of March 31, including $88 million in cash, $143 million in available revolver capacity, and $104 million in remaining reimbursements available under government grants.

    截至 3 月 31 日,流動資金為 3.35 億美元,其中包括 8,800 萬美元現金、1.43 億美元可用循環信貸額度以及 1.04 億美元政府補助項下可用的剩餘補償金。

  • As of March 31, we had $516 million of outstanding debt. Earlier this month, we executed an amendment to our credit facility to extend the July 2026 maturities of our revolver and one of our term loans by One year in addition to increasing the net leverage covenant by a half a term to 4.7 times.

    截至 3 月 31 日,我們的未償還債務為 5.16 億美元。本月初,我們對信貸安排進行了修訂,將循環信貸和一筆定期貸款的 2026 年 7 月到期期限延長一年,同時將淨槓桿契約期限延長半倍至 4.7 倍。

  • With the amendment, the first major majority is now July 2027.

    根據該修正案,第一次多數票將於 2027 年 7 月通過。

  • As I noted during our earnings call, our last earnings call, we are planning to refinance our credit facilities. At this time, our preferred path to refinance is to access the asset back securitization or ABS market for our fiber business and enter into a new credit facility for our incumbent broadband business. We believe this hybrid capital structure could provide us a lower cost of that.

    正如我在上次收益電話會議上提到的那樣,我們正計劃為我們的信貸額度進行再融資。目前,我們首選的再融資途徑是進入光纖業務的資產支持證券化或 ABS 市場,並為我們現有的寬頻業務建立新的信貸安排。我們相信這種混合資本結構可以降低我們的成本。

  • The amendment to our credit facility provides us additional time to restructure our lines of business reporting and back office systems to support this hybrid capital structure while lowering the risk that the current term loans will be reclassified as a current liability.

    對我們的信貸安排的修改為我們提供了額外的時間來重組我們的業務報告和後台系統,以支持這種混合資本結構,同時降低當前定期貸款被重新歸類為流動負債的風險。

  • More to come on refinancing details in future quarters and now I'll turn the call over to Ed.

    有關未來幾季的再融資細節將會公佈,現在我將把電話轉給 Ed。

  • Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,吉姆,大家早安。

  • Our integrated broadband network shown on slide nine now passes more than 600,000 homes and businesses with low fiber accounting for over 60% of our total passes.

    第九張投影片展示了我們的綜合寬頻網絡,目前覆蓋超過 60 萬個家庭和企業,其中低光纖佔總覆蓋率的 60% 以上。

  • Our construction teams added almost 400 route miles of fiber in the quarter to explain, expand glow fiber, pass additional homes in government subsidized areas of incumbent broadband markets, and extend service to commercial customers.

    我們的施工團隊在本季增加了近 400 英里的光纖路線,用於解釋、擴展光纖、將光纖覆蓋到現有寬頻市場政府補貼區域的更多家庭,並將服務擴展到商業客戶。

  • Our extensive regional fiber network now spans more than 17,200 route miles across eight states.

    我們廣泛的區域光纖網路目前覆蓋八個州的 17,200 多英里路線。

  • Slide 10 provides additional details on our broadband passings and plans to substantially complete the construction phase of our low fiber expansion project and government grant projects by the end of 2026.

    幻燈片 10 提供了有關我們的寬頻傳輸的更多詳細信息,並計劃在 2026 年底之前基本完成低光纖擴展項目和政府補助項目的建設階段。

  • We started 2025 with 346,000 glow fiber passings, and we added approximately 17,000 passings in the first quarter to bring our total to 363,000.

    2025 年開始,我們的螢光纖維接種量為 346,000 次,第一季又增加了約 17,000 次,總數達到 363,000 次。

  • By the end of 2025, we plan to reach a total of 440,000 homes, and we are targeting approximately 550,000 total glow fiber passings by the end of 2026 as we focus on construction in areas meeting our return criteria.

    到 2025 年底,我們計劃涵蓋總共 440,000 戶家庭,並且我們的目標是到 2026 年底,總共覆蓋約 550,000 個發光光纖,因為我們專注於在符合回報標準的地區進行建設。

  • In our incumbent broadband markets, we started the year with 239,000 passings and added approximately 2000 additional passings in the first quarter, primarily as part of government grant projects to extend fiber to unserved areas.

    在我們現有的寬頻市場中,今年年初我們的用戶量為 239,000 人次,並在第一季度增加了約 2,000 人次,這主要是作為政府補助項目的一部分,旨在將光纖擴展到未服務地區。

  • We plan to reach a total of approximately 254,000 incumbent broadband passings as we complete government grant projects in the remainder of 2025 and 2026. With Glow fiber and incumbent broadband markets combined, we plan to pass more than 800,000 homes and businesses with broadband service by the end of 2026.

    我們計劃在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年完成政府補助專案後,總共實現約 254,000 條現有寬頻存取。結合 Glow 光纖和現有寬頻市場,我們計劃在 2026 年底為超過 80 萬個家庭和企業提供寬頻服務。

  • As we continue to increase our number of low fiber passings, customer net additions have accelerated as shown on slide 11.

    隨著我們持續增加低纖維傳遞的數量,客戶淨增加量也加速成長,如投影片 11 所示。

  • In the first quarter, we added 5,400 new customers and approximately 6,100 total data, video, and voice revenue generating units. Year over year, we grew our customer base by 51% and ended the first quarter with approximately 71,000 GO fiber subscribers.

    第一季度,我們增加了 5,400 名新客戶,數據、視訊和語音創收單位總數約為 6,100 名。與去年同期相比,我們的客戶群成長了 51%,第一季末我們的 GO 光纖用戶數量約為 71,000 人。

  • Our total Glow fiber revenue generating units reached 84,000 at the end of the quarter, up approximately 48% year-over-year. Broadband data penetration in our glow fiber expansion markets climbed to 19.4% at the end of the first quarter, up 18%.

    截至本季末,我們的 Glow 光纖總創收單位達到 84,000 個,較去年同期成長約 48%。我們光纜擴展市場的寬頻數據普及率在第一季末攀升至 19.4%,成長了 18%。

  • From 18% a year earlier. And monthly broadband data churn for the first quarter remained very low at 0.9%. Our broadband data average revenue per user increased slightly to more than $77 in the first quarter, as over 49% of our residential subscribers adopted speed tiers of 1 gig or higher, including approximately 7% that took speeds of 2GB or higher.

    而一年前這一比例為 18%。第一季每月寬頻資料流失率仍維持在非常低的 0.9%。第一季度,我們的寬頻數據每用戶平均收入略有增加,達到 77 美元以上,因為超過 49% 的住宅用戶採用了 1GB 或更高的速度等級,其中約 7% 的用戶採用了 2GB 或更高的速度。

  • On slide 12, we've updated our data penetration rates as markets mature, and we are very pleased with our progress toward our average terminal penetration target of 37%.

    在第 12 張投影片上,隨著市場成熟,我們更新了資料滲透率,我們對實現 37% 的平均終端滲透率目標的進展感到非常滿意。

  • As Chris noted earlier, passings released to sales from Fourth quarter 2019 to Third quarter 2023 ended the first quarter with an average data penetration rate of approximately 25%. Our most mature cohorts launched four or more years ago continue to show strong growth with a weighted average growth rate of more than 1% point in the first quarter.

    正如克里斯先前指出的,2019 年第四季至 2023 年第三季發布的銷售數據在第一季結束時的平均數據滲透率約為 25%。我們四年前或更早推出的最成熟的群體繼續呈現強勁成長,第一季的加權平均成長率超過 1%。

  • Moving on to slide 13, we show our operating results for our incumbent broadband markets.

    轉到第 13 張投影片,我們展示了我們現有寬頻市場的經營績效。

  • In the first quarter, we added more than 500 broadband data subscribers with customer additions in our government subsidized markets more than offsetting losses in competitive areas.

    第一季度,我們增加了 500 多名寬頻數據用戶,其中政府補貼市場新增的客戶數量足以彌補競爭領域的損失。

  • We ended the first quarter with approximately 112,000 broadband data customers, up 2.7% year-over-year due to the acquisition of approximately 3,000 broadband data customers from Horizon.

    第一季末,我們擁有約 112,000 名寬頻數據客戶,年增 2.7%,這得益於我們從 Horizo​​n 收購了約 3,000 名寬頻數據客戶。

  • Data voice and video RGU's totaled approximately 163,000 at the end of the first quarter and remained fairly consistent year-over-year with RGUs acquired from Horizon, partially offsetting losses in Sintel incumbent cable markets due to video customers moving to online streaming options.

    截至第一季末,數據語音和視訊 RGU 總數約為 163,000 個,與從 Horizo​​​​n 收購的 RGU 數量同比基本持平,部分抵消了由於視訊客戶轉向線上串流媒體選項而導致的 Sintel 現有有線電視市場的損失。

  • Monthly broadband data churn continued to improve in the first quarter, down more than 30 basis points year-over-year to 1.36%. Our rate cards providing higher speeds and more value for the same price continue to be effective in mitigating churn while preserving broadband data (RPpoop) of more than $83.

    第一季每月寬頻資料流失率持續改善,較去年同期下降超過 30 個基點至 1.36%。我們的費率卡以相同的價格提供更高的速度和更多的價值,繼續有效地減少客戶流失,同時保留超過 83 美元的寬頻資料(RPpoop)。

  • Overall broadband data penetration decreased to 46.5% at the end of the first quarter, down year-over-year due to the addition of acquired passings in the Horizon IEC territory and recently constructed government subsidized passings. We see significant opportunities to drive penetration growth in both of these areas over the next several years.

    第一季末,整體寬頻數據普及率下降至 46.5%,年減是由於 Horizo​​​​n IEC 區域內新增的購買線路以及最近建設的政府補貼線路。我們看到,未來幾年這兩個領域都存在著推動滲透率成長的巨大機會。

  • Slide 14 highlights our commercial fiber business and our record quarter for sales with new contracts for 196,000 in incremental monthly revenue.

    投影片 14 重點介紹了我們的商業光纖業務以及創紀錄的季度銷售情況,新合約的月增量收入為 196,000 份。

  • In the first quarter, our service delivery team installed approximately $221,000 in new monthly revenue, and our remaining installation backlog is $549,000 in monthly revenue.

    在第一季度,我們的服務交付團隊新增了約 221,000 美元的月收入,剩餘的安裝積壓訂單的月收入為 549,000 美元。

  • We expect to install the vast majority of this backlog in 2025.

    我們預計在 2025 年安裝絕大部分積壓產品。

  • Average monthly compression and disconnect churn was up slightly year-over-year to 1.3% due to an expected re-rate of certain T-Mobile circuits in the first quarter.

    由於預計第一季某些 T-Mobile 電路將重新評級,平均每月壓縮和斷開連接流失率同比略有上升,達到 1.3%。

  • This contract was executed in 2021 and included a January 2025 step down in price that remains in effect until early 2031. Capital spending in the First quarter and guidance for the full year are shown on slide 15.

    該合約於 2021 年執行,其中包括 2025 年 1 月降價,該降價將持續到 2031 年初。第一季的資本支出和全年指引顯示在投影片 15 上。

  • We invested $76 million in the first quarter, net of $7 million in government subsidies.

    我們在第一季投資了 7,600 萬美元,扣除 700 萬美元的政府補貼。

  • For the full year, we expect capital investments to be in the $250 million to $280 million dollar range, net of $60 million to $70 million in government subsidies.

    我們預計全年資本投資將在 2.5 億美元至 2.8 億美元之間,扣除 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的政府補貼。

  • The timing of government subsidies are factors in our elevated spending in both commercial fiber and incumbent cable markets, and we expect spending to normalize as we receive additional reimbursements in the second half of the year.

    政府補貼的時機是我們在商業光纖和現有有線電視市場支出增加的因素,我們預計隨著下半年收到額外的補償,支出將恢復正常。

  • To date, we have not been impacted by price increases due to tariffs, and we don't expect to see a significant impact on our future construction costs.

    到目前為止,我們尚未受到關稅導致的價格上漲的影響,我們預計不會對我們未來的建築成本產生重大影響。

  • Materials and equipment only account for about 20% of our overall capital investments in 2025. The vast majority of the fiber and associated construction materials we use are manufactured in the United States, and we have about eight months' worth of construction materials in our warehouses.

    到 2025 年,材料和設備僅占我們總資本投資的 20% 左右。我們使用的纖維和相關建築材料絕大多數都是在美國製造的,我們的倉庫裡有大約八個月的建築材料。

  • We could have future tariff exposure with electronic equipment, particularly customer premise equipment like Wi Fi routers, cable modems, and video set-top boxes.

    我們未來可能會面臨電子設備關稅風險,特別是客戶端設備,如 Wi-Fi 路由器、電纜數據機和視訊機上盒。

  • Most of this equipment is manufactured overseas, but we currently have more than six months' worth of equipment, either in our warehouses or already in the US with firm pricing commitments. If this equipment is impacted by tariffs and price increases, we would likely increase monthly equipment rental fees to offset the cost increase.

    大部分的設備都是在海外製造的,但我們目前擁有超過六個月的設備,這些設備要么在我們的倉庫中,要么已經在美國,並有明確定價承諾。如果該設備受到關稅和價格上漲的影響,我們可能會增加每月的設備租賃費以抵消成本增加。

  • Overall, we think we're well positioned to execute on our capital plan this year and substantially complete the construction phase of our low fiber bills and government grant projects by the end of 2026.

    總體而言,我們認為我們已做好準備,在今年執行我們的資本計劃,並在 2026 年底前基本完成低光纖費用和政府補助項目的建設階段。

  • Thank you very much and operator, we're now ready for questions.

    非常感謝接線員,我們現在可以回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

    謝謝。屆時,我們將進行問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Our first question comes from Frank Lutton from Raymond James and Associates. Please go ahead.

    我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James and Associates 公司的 Frank Lutton。請繼續。

  • Frank Lutton - Analyst

    Frank Lutton - Analyst

  • Great thank you just want to talk about the potential for first maybe as securities what rates do you think you can get and do you think you can get it done a deal done this year? And then what is sort of the optimal capital structure for you guys using that capital source and other sources? How do you think about that longer term and then I've got a follow up.

    非常感謝,您只是想談談首先作為證券的潛力,您認為您可以獲得什麼利率,您認為您能在今年完成交易嗎?那麼對你們來說,使用該資本來源和其他來源的最佳資本結構是什麼?您如何看待這項長期影響?我會繼續跟進。

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Sure, good morning, Frank. Yeah, we think ABS is going to save us about 100 basis points, in interest expense. We're planning to only use the investment grade tranches of the ABS, we're not trying to maximize leverage here, we're really just trying to minimize the cost of the debt, we will also put in a revolver, credit facility for the, come to broadband business.

    當然,早上好,弗蘭克。是的,我們認為 ABS 將為我們節省約 100 個基點的利息支出。我們計劃僅使用 ABS 的投資等級部分,我們並不是想在這裡最大化槓桿,我們實際上只是想最小化債務成本,我們還將為寬頻業務提供循環信貸便利。

  • And, as I think long term, most likely that facility, will likely be used in the short term, but in the long term like the, all of the debt will end up on the fiber side of the capital structure.

    而且,我認為從長期來看,最有可能的是,該設施可能會在短期內被使用,但從長遠來看,所有債務最終都將屬於資本結構的光纖方面。

  • Frank Lutton - Analyst

    Frank Lutton - Analyst

  • All right, great. And then can you walk walk us through sort of the tail end plan here of low fiber is when will that, elevated CapEx investment be substantially done? Is that you're in 26 and is that the point where we can expect CapEx to really fall off and then once you're done with the current expansion there, what you know what is ongoing level of capital intensity we should expect going forward?

    好的,太好了。然後,您能否向我們介紹低光纖的尾端計劃,即何時才能實質完成高額的資本支出投資?您現在處於 26 歲,這是我們可以預期資本支出真正下降的點嗎?然後,一旦您完成當前的擴張,您知道我們未來應該預期的資本密集度水準是多少嗎?

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah, Frank, we expect to complete the construction to get to the 550,000 passings through the end of '26, so beginning in 2027, we think, the capital intensity should drop to about 20% to 25% of our revenues. And we will, we expect to be free cash flow positive, in '27 and with meaningful amounts of growth in '28 and beyond, as we, continue to execute, there will still be plenty of growth left, from the lo fiber business as we continue to add customers there.

    是的,弗蘭克,我們預計到 26 年底,該工程將完成,屆時將有 55 萬人次通過,因此,我們認為,從 2027 年開始,資本密集度應該會下降到我們收入的 20% 到 25% 左右。我們預計,2027 年我們的自由現金流將為正,2028 年及以後也將實現有意義的成長,隨著我們繼續執行,隨著我們繼續增加客戶,低纖維業務仍將有很大的成長空間。

  • Frank Lutton - Analyst

    Frank Lutton - Analyst

  • Why would it still be that high? That seems very elevated to me relative to the industry and kind of historic norms. Is that still sort of, running drops to houses and things like that for a couple of years? I mean, if we think about it long term, you settle in at a decent penetration rate, why wouldn't capital intensity be in the mid-teens?

    為什麼它仍然那麼高?相對於產業和歷史規範而言,這對我來說似乎非常高尚。這幾年來,這種現像是否還會持續下去,向家庭和類似場所投放廣告?我的意思是,如果我們從長遠考慮,你以一個不錯的滲透率安頓下來,那麼資本密集度為什麼不會達到十幾歲呢?

  • Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Frank, this is Ed, what you mentioned about installing drops to homes, that's a big factor here. As we install more drops and have those drops in place, that capital intensity does come down.

    是的,弗蘭克,我是艾德,你提到的安裝家用滴水管,這是一個重要因素。隨著我們安裝更多的滴管並將這些滴管安裝到位,資本強度確實會下降。

  • Frank Lutton - Analyst

    Frank Lutton - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And one last question just on, impressive on the EBITDA side, is this the new normal here for the level of EBITDA we should think about going forward, or is there anything kind of one time that that helped the margin or any seasonal cost coming up later this year that might walk that margin back a little bit? How should we think about the ongoing level of EBITDA?

    好的,太好了。最後一個問題,EBITDA 方面令人印象深刻,這是我們未來應該考慮的 EBITDA 水準的新常態嗎?或者是否有某種一次性因素對利潤率有幫助,或者今年稍後出現的任何季節性成本可能會使利潤率略有回落?我們該如何看待 EBITDA 的持續水準?

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah, Frank, this is, I was using your words, the new normal. We do expect revenue and EBITDA to continue to grow as we've talked about in the past, and that we expect the margins, even the margins, each year to probably grow 300 basis points to 400 basis points a year as we continue to add customers on the low fiber side, very high incremental margins when we're adding a low fiber customer.

    是的,弗蘭克,這就是,用你的話來說,新常態。我們確實預期營收和 EBITDA 將繼續成長,正如我們過去談到的那樣,並且我們預期利潤率,甚至利潤率,每年可能會成長 300 個基點到 400 個基點,因為我們繼續在低光纖方面增加客戶,當我們增加一個低光纖客戶時,增量利潤率會非常高。

  • Frank Lutton - Analyst

    Frank Lutton - Analyst

  • So, 300 basis points to 400 basis points for the whole company kind of you its top margin growth each year.

    因此,整個公司每年的最高利潤率成長率為 300 個基點到 400 個基點。

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Frank Lutton - Analyst

    Frank Lutton - Analyst

  • Okay great thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. One moment for our next question.

    謝謝。請稍等片刻,回答我們的下一個問題。

  • Our next question comes from Hamed Korson from DWS Financial. Please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自 DWS Financial 的 Hamed Korson。請繼續。

  • Hamed Korson - Analyst

    Hamed Korson - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. First off, just want to talk about, the amount of subscriber growth you're seeing, on the gold fiber side. Is it becoming difficult in adding that incremental one subscriber each quarter, or you're not at that point yet?

    嗨,早安。首先,我想談談您在金光纖方面看到的用戶成長數量。每個季度增加一名用戶是否變得越來越困難,或者你們還沒有達到那個程度?

  • Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Frank, this is, excuse me, Hamed, this is Ed, really, we're not at that point yet. Even our most mature markets that we launched, four+ years ago, we saw, 1% point growth in the past quarter. So, we're continuing to add customers, two, three, four years after we launch a market.

    是的,弗蘭克,對不起,這是哈米德,這是艾德,真的,我們還沒到那一步。即使是我們四年多前推出的最成熟的市場,我們也看到上個季度的成長率為 1%。因此,在我們推出市場兩年、三年、四年後,我們還在持續增加客戶。

  • Hamed Korson - Analyst

    Hamed Korson - Analyst

  • And are you seeing any competitive pressures in any of these markets yet?

    您是否已經看到這些市場中存在競爭壓力?

  • Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • We have a small overlap with bright speed, roughly 5% of our passings. We have seen them, deploy fiber. Other than that, we haven't seen any, significant fiber deployments, in our glow fiber markets.

    我們的傳球速度與明亮速度重疊很小,約佔傳球速度的 5%。我們已經看到他們部署光纖。除此之外,我們還沒有看到在我們的光纖市場有任何重大的光纖部署。

  • Hamed Korson - Analyst

    Hamed Korson - Analyst

  • Are you changing your CapEx strategy based upon competition, or you just don't think that's a factor?

    您會根據競爭情況改變資本支出策略,或者您只是認為這不是一個因素?

  • Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Edward McKay - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No, we, when we're building out into a new area, we consider the competition. For example, if we're in a market and Horizon has already built files into a neighborhood, we avoid that neighborhood. So we are targeting passings where we are the only fiber provider and really the only wired broadband competitor is the cable, the cable company.

    不,當我們拓展新領域時,我們會考慮競爭。例如,如果我們在某個市場,而 Horizo​​​​n 已經在某個社區建立了文件,我們就會避開該社區。因此,我們的目標是成為唯一的光纖供應商,而唯一的有線寬頻競爭對手是有線電視公司。

  • Hamed Korson - Analyst

    Hamed Korson - Analyst

  • And then I'm just trying to understand on the the refinancing topic.

    然後我只是想了解再融資的話題。

  • It sounds like you were going through this integration process with the horizon, but now it sounds like you're going through a, on integration standpoint, if that's even a work, process just to get this refinancing done. And, yeah, is that, I'm just trying to understand the cost basis here. I know you're trying to save on interest rates, but then isn't there a cost factor as far as this kind of restructuring is concerned?

    聽起來您正在經歷與 Horizo​​​​n 的整合過程,但現在聽起來您正在經歷一個,從整合的角度來看,如果這甚至是一個工作過程,只是為了完成這次再融資。是的,我只是想了解這裡的成本基礎。我知道您想節省利率,但就這種重組而言,難道不存在成本因素嗎?

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Ahmed, just internal, projects, more than anything here, but, for us to be able to save 100 basis points on roughly $700 million of, funded debt, is pretty meaningful to us. So the internal work that we're doing on this. It's going to take several months. We expect to, likely access, the ABS market in the second half of the year, but we think it's well worth it to save, roughly $7 million of interest expense a year.

    艾哈邁德,這裡的重點只是內部項目,但是,對我們來說,能夠在約 7 億美元的融資債務上節省 100 個基點,這對我們來說意義重大。我們正在就此進行內部工作。這需要幾個月的時間。我們預計可能會在今年下半年進入 ABS 市場,但我們認為每年節省約 700 萬美元的利息支出是值得的。

  • Hamed Korson - Analyst

    Hamed Korson - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn it back to Jim Volk for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言時間交還給吉姆沃克 (Jim Volk) 來做最後發言。

  • James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Volk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Thank you everyone for joining. We look forward to updating you on our progress, in future quarters. Have a great day.

    感謝大家的參與。我們期待在未來幾季向您通報我們的進展。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。