Stifel Financial Corp (SF) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Stifel Financial fourth quarter financial results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr Joel Jeffrey, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Stifel Financial 第四季財務業績電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管喬爾傑弗裡先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. I'd like to welcome everyone to Stifel Financial's fourth quarter and full year 2024 conference call. I'm joined on the call today by our Chairman and CEO, Ron Kruszewski, our Co-Presidents, Victor Nesi and Jim Zemlyak; and our CFO, Jim Marischen.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家參加 Stifel Financial 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。今天參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Ron Kruszewski、聯合總裁 Victor Nesi 和 Jim Zemlyak；以及我們的財務長 Jim Marischen。

Earlier this morning, we issued an earnings release and posted a slide deck and financial supplement to our website, which can be found on the investor relations page at www.stifelcom. I would note that some of the numbers that we state throughout our presentation are presented on a non-GAAP basis and I would refer to our reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP as disclosed in our press release.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份收益報告，並在我們的網站上發布了幻燈片和財務補充，可以在投資者關係頁面 www.stifelcom 上找到。我要指出的是，我們在整個演示過程中提出的一些數字都是以非 GAAP 為基礎呈現的，我將參考我們在新聞稿中揭露的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整。

I would also remind listeners to refer to our earnings release, financial supplement and our slide presentation for information forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Stifel Financial Corp and cannot be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without the consent of Stifel Financial Corp.

我還要提醒聽眾參閱我們的收益報告、財務補充資料和幻燈片演示，以獲取有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的資訊。本音訊廣播為 Stifel Financial Corp 的版權資料，未經 Stifel Financial Corp 同意不得複製、影印或轉播。

I will now turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Ron Kruszewski.

現在我將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Ron Kruszewski。

Thanks, Joe. Good morning and thanks to everyone for taking the time to listen to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Before I get into our results and our outlook, I do want to take a minute to send our thoughts and prayers to the people of Los Angeles who have been dealing with the ongoing tragedy. Along with our colleagues and clients, we join everyone in thanking the first responders for their efforts for many of the devastated communities.

謝謝，喬。早安，感謝大家抽出時間聆聽我們 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。在介紹我們的成果和前景之前，我想花一點時間向正在經歷這場悲劇的洛杉磯人民表達我們的慰問和祈禱。我們與同事和客戶一起，感謝第一批救援人員為許多受災社區所做的努力。

Now into our call, as you can see from our results on slide 1, 2024 was an exceptionally strong year at Stifel as we generated record net revenue driven by another record year in global wealth management. And within our institutional segment, we generated our second highest annual revenue as this business continues to rebound from the very difficult operating environment we experienced in 2023.

現在進入我們的電話會議，正如您從幻燈片1 上的結果中看到的那樣，2024 年是Stifel 異常強勁的一年，因為我們創造了創紀錄的淨收入，這得益於全球財富管理又創紀錄的一年。在我們的機構部門內，我們創造了第二高的年收入，因為該業務繼續從 2023 年經歷的非常困難的營運環境中反彈。

The increase in institutional revenue of more than $360 million was an important factor in our ability to realize the operating leverage in our business model as it more than offset the decline of $110 million in net interest income, which was due in large part to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Overall, we generated pre tax margin of more than 20%, a return on tangible common equity of nearly 23%, and a 46% increase in our earnings per share.

機構收入增加 3.6 億美元以上是我們實現業務模式經營槓桿能力的重要因素，因為它抵消了淨利息收入 1.1 億美元的下降，這在很大程度上是由於聯邦央行降息。整體而言，我們的稅前利潤率超過 20%，有形普通股權益報酬率接近 23%，每股盈餘成長 46%。

I am pleased with our 2024 results given the fact that we are still not back to what we believe is a normalized operating environment, particularly in our institutional equities business. I stated on our call last year that we view 2024 as a transition year to 2025 and we were not expecting our institutional group to return to normalized productivity levels. Well, this is pretty much how the year played out. And yet I'd like to highlight a few noteworthy achievements.

考慮到我們仍未恢復到我們所認為的正常化營運環境，尤其是在我們的機構股票業務方面，我對我們的 2024 年業績感到滿意。我在去年的電話會議上表示，我們將 2024 年視為向 2025 年過渡的一年，我們並不期望我們的機構集團恢復到正常的生產力水準。嗯，這一年的情況大致就是這樣的。然而，我想強調一些值得注意的成就。

First, global wealth management recorded another record year as record client assets and growth in transactional activity more than offset declines in net interest income. Second, 2024 was our second strongest year as we had substantial improvement in capital raising, advisory and transactional revenue. Second strongest year for institutional growth.

首先，全球財富管理再創紀錄，客戶資產創紀錄且交易活動成長超過淨利息收入的下降。其次，2024 年是我們表現第二強勁的一年，因為我們在融資、諮詢和交易收入方面都有了大幅提升。機構成長第二強勁的一年。

Third, our 2024 results highlight the strengths of our long-term approach to how we manage our bank. The early implementation of our Smart Rate product, as well as the growth in commercial deposits enabled us to maintain deposit levels and avoid the impact of cash [sorting] that plagued many in our industry.

第三，我們的 2024 年業績凸顯了我們銀行管理長期方法的優勢。我們早期實施的智慧利率產品以及商業存款的成長使我們能夠維持存款水平，並避免困擾我們行業許多企業的現金[分類]的影響。

And finally, by keeping most of our assets and floating rate instruments, we saw our net interest margin stabilize in 2024 and we remain well insulated against further rate changes, which we believe will help us increase NII through balance sheet growth.

最後，透過保留大部分資產和浮動利率工具，我們的淨利差在2024 年趨於穩定，並且能夠很好地抵禦進一步的利率變動，我們相信這將有助於我們透過資產負債表成長來增加NII。

The bottom line is that we exit 2024 in a much stronger position than we entered the year. Looking forward, our global wealth franchise is well positioned to capitalize on the continued optimism in the market and recruiting pipelines are very strong.

最重要的是，我們在 2024 年結束時的地位將比年初強大得多。展望未來，我們的全球財富特許經營業務已做好準備，可以利用市場持續的樂觀情緒，而且招聘管道非常強大。

Our investment bank -- our investment banking pipelines have increased due to improving market conditions and pent up demand for M&A and capital raising. We believe that there are tailwinds for this business particularly as the new administration is focused on growth and deregulation.

由於市場條件改善以及併購和融資需求被壓抑，我們的投資銀行－我們的投資銀行管道增加。我們相信，這項業務將面臨順風，特別是在新政府專注於成長和放鬆管制的情況下。

Unleashing the strength of the US economy will drive increased business investment and the resultant financing requirements, whether debt or equity. Additionally, from a regulatory standpoint, it shouldn't be lost that the new administration will appoint eight new regulators within the FDIC, SEC, OCC and other agencies.

釋放美國經濟的實力將推動企業投資增加以及由此產生的融資需求，無論是債務還是股權。此外，從監管角度來看，新政府將在聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC)、證券交易委員會 (SEC)、貨幣監理署 (OCC) 和其他機構內任命八名新的監管機構，這一點不容忽視。

This should benefit the capital markets and in particular, the M&A environment, especially for banks. With increased levels of wealth management, client cash and commercial deposits, we will look to grow our bank assets which comprise the majority of our consolidated interest earning assets.

這將有利於資本市場，特別是銀行的併購環境。隨著財富管理、客戶現金和商業存款水準的提高，我們將尋求增加占我們合併生息資產大部分的銀行資產。

Frankly, the combination of a favorable regulatory framework, the normalization of the interest rate curve and our outlook for both increased NII and institutional revenue should be a very strong operating environment for Stifel as we enter 2025.

坦白說，有利的監管框架、利率曲線的正常化以及我們對 NII 和機構收入增加的展望，應該會為 Stifel 在進入 2025 年時帶來非常強勁的營運環境。

We will continue to buoy our excess capital with a focus on generating the best risk adjusted returns as we always do. On that note, I want to mention that our board recently authorized a 10% increase on our common stock dividend to a $1.84 per share.

我們將一如既往地繼續增加我們的過剩資本，重點是產生最佳的風險調整回報。關於這一點，我想提一下，我們的董事會最近批准將普通股股息提高 10% 至每股 1.84 美元。

Moving on to slide 2. Stifel has been and always will be a growth company and a growth stock. In this chart, we look at our business performance since the beginning of 2005, which is when we became the diversified financial services company that we are today with the acquisition of Legg Mason Capital Markets. However, from a share price perspective, Stifel has been a growth company going back to the time when I joined the firm, as you can see from our performance compared to the S&P 500 and Microsoft.

轉到投影片 2。Stifel 一直是一家成長型公司，也將永遠是一家成長型股票。在這張圖表中，我們查看了自 2005 年初以來的業務表現，當時我們透過收購 Legg Mason Capital Markets 成為瞭如今的多元化金融服務公司。然而，從股價角度來看，自從我加入公司以來，Stifel 一直是一家成長型公司，從我們與標準普爾 500 指數和微軟的比較表現就可以看出。

Of note, since January of 1997, Stifel share price has increased nearly 7000%, which has well outpaced the growth in the share price of Microsoft at less than 3300% and the S&P 500 at around 660%. And that represents 27 years of growth. But what about the last five years? While the shares of Stifel have increased 163%, this again compares favorably to Microsoft, which is my tech proxy here, which was up 152%; and the S&P 500's 86% increase during this timeframe.

值得注意的是，自 1997 年 1 月以來，Stifel 股價已上漲近 7,000%，遠超過微軟股價上漲的不到 3,300% 和標準普爾 500 指數上漲的約 660%。這代表著27年的成長。但過去五年的情況如何？雖然 Stifel 的股價已經上漲了 163%，但與我看好的科技股代理微軟相比，這一漲幅還是有優勢的，微軟上漲了 152%；標準普爾 500 指數在此期間上漲了 86%。

Look, our strategy of reinvesting in our business and increasing our capabilities through acquisitions have resulted in substantial top and bottom-line growth over the past 20-plus years. It's important to understand our history of successfully executing on our growth strategy to understand our confidence in achieving the longer-term goals we've targeted.

看看吧，我們對業務進行再投資並透過收購來提升自身能力的策略，在過去 20 多年裡帶來了大幅的營收和利潤成長。了解我們成功執行成長策略的歷史對於了解我們實現長期目標的信心非常重要。

Over the past year, I've stated our objective to essentially double both revenue and client assets to 10 billion and 1 trillion, respectfully. So it should come as no surprise that I've received more than a few questions about how we expect to achieve these targets?

在過去的一年裡，我提出了我們的目標是將收入和客戶資產分別翻一番，達到 100 億和 1 兆。因此，當我收到很多關於我們期望如何實現這些目標的問題時，這並不奇怪。

Well, I'll go back to a comment you've probably heard me say quite a few times, when I'm asked about our business and how are we going to achieve these targets, I say, [past this prologue]. And as you can see from the chart on slide 2, we have an impressive history of growing our business. Our revenue over the past 20 years has increased at a compound annual rate of 17% as both our global wealth management and institutional group segments have grown significantly.

好吧，我回到你可能聽過我說過很多次的一句話，當我被問及我們的業務以及我們將如何實現這些目標時，我會說，[過去這篇序言]。正如您從投影片 2 的圖表中看到的，我們的業務發展有著令人矚目的歷史。過去20年來，我們的全球財富管理和機構集團部門均實現了大幅成長，我們的收入以17%的複合年增長率成長。

To minimize the impact of year to year volatility, we illustrated our revenue in five year periods which better demonstrates the consistency of our growth. Over the most recent five years, our average net revenue increased 5.5 times from the 2005 to 2009 time frame and is up nearly 60% from the five years, 2015 to 2019.

為了盡量減少逐年波動的影響，我們以五年為週期來描述我們的收入，以便更好地展示我們成長的一致性。最近五年來，我們的平均淨收入從 2005 年到 2009 年成長了 5.5 倍，從 2015 年到 2019 年的五年間成長了近 60%。

While we've experienced meaningful growth in both our operating segments, our global wealth segment has been the largest consistent historical driver of our business. In fact, the average revenue in global wealth management in the five years -- in the past five years was roughly equal to the average firm wide revenue in the prior period. And this trend is consistent with each of the time periods we highlighted.

雖然我們的兩個營運部門都經歷了有意義的成長，但我們的全球財富部門一直是我們業務最大的歷史驅動力。事實上，過去五年全球財富管理的平均收入大致相當於前一時期整個公司的平均收入。這一趨勢與我們強調的每個時期都是一致的。

This is a function or was a function of successful recruiting as well as offering our financial advisers the highest level of service available, a great culture and combined results in compound annual growth in client assets of 17% which is equal to our overall revenue growth over the same time period.

這是成功招募的成果，也是為我們的財務顧問提供最高水準的服務、良好的文化和綜合成果的成果，客戶資產的複合年增長率達到 17%，這相當於我們 2017 年整體收入的成長。同一時段。

Our average institutional revenue has increased more than 550% over this 20 year period. We've invested heavily in the growth of our investment banking franchise as well as our transactional businesses. The number of investment banking managing directors has increased more than 1300% to 212 and we've made several acquisitions to improve our relevance to clients in both our fixed income and equities franchises.

在這 20 年間，我們的平均機構收入成長了 550% 以上。我們對投資銀行業務以及交易業務的成長投入了大量資金。投資銀行董事總經理的數量增加了 1300% 以上，達到 212 名，並且我們進行了多次收購，以提高我們在固定收益和股票特許經營領域與客戶的相關性。

While the reinvestment to the franchise has been a key factor in our revenue growth, it is equally, if not more important, to highlight our ability to generate increased operating leverage as revenues have grown. Increased depth and breadth of our business is driven efficiencies within our operations that are illustrated by the average pretax margin and return on tangible common equity of 20.5% and 23.4%, respectively, over the past five years. This is an increase of nearly 700 basis points in pretax margin, a 400 basis points in return on tangible common equity from the period 2005 to 2009.

雖然對特許經營權的再投資是我們收入成長的關鍵因素，但同樣重要的是，甚至更重要的是，要凸顯我們在收入成長的同時產生更高經營槓桿的能力。我們業務深度和廣度的提升推動了營運效率的提高，過去五年平均稅前利潤率和有形普通股回報率分別為 20.5% 和 23.4%。這意味著從 2005 年到 2009 年期間，稅前利潤率增加了近 700 個基點，有形普通股權益報酬率增加了 400 個基點。

Given our track record, I am confident in our ability to achieve our growth targets. As such, we will continue to hire or acquire world class talent. We will deploy our substantial excess capital with a focus on risk adjusted returns and we will continue to seek efficiencies within our businesses.

鑑於我們的過往業績，我對我們實現成長目標的能力充滿信心。因此，我們將繼續聘用或獲取世界一流的人才。我們將部署大量的過剩資本，並專注於風險調整後的回報，並將繼續尋求業務效率。

Lastly, to preempt the question I'm sure we'll come up in Q&A, I'm not going to put a specific time frame on our longer term revenue and client asset target. However, I think it's clear from our history of growth and our ability to successfully manage our businesses that we believe these targets are within our reach in a reasonable time frame.

最後，為了搶先回答我們在問答環節中肯定會提出的問題，我不會為我們的長期收入和客戶資產目標設定具體的時間框架。然而，我認為，從我們的發展歷史和成功管理業務的能力來看，我們相信這些目標可以在合理的時間範圍內實現。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Jim Marischen, to go over our quarterly numbers.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Jim Marischen，來討論我們的季度數據。

Thanks, Ron. Looking at our fourth quarter results, we generated record net revenue of $1.36 billion, which surpassed our prior record set in the fourth quarter of 2021 by 5%.

謝謝，羅恩。縱觀我們的第四季業績，我們創造了 13.6 億美元的創紀錄淨收入，比我們在 2021 年第四季創下的紀錄高出 5%。

The strength of our performance was widespread as each of our revenue line items generated meaningful growth from the prior year. Commissions and principal transactions increased 15% as both wealth management and our institutional group once again generated double digit increases. Investment banking increased by nearly 50% driven by strong increases in both capital raising and advisory revenue.

我們的業績表現強勁，因為我們的每項收入都比前一年實現了有意義的成長。由於財富管理和機構集團再次實現兩位數的成長，佣金和本金交易增加了 15%。由於融資和諮詢收入的強勁增長，投資銀行業務增長了近 50%。

Record asset management revenue was up 23%, reflecting organic growth and market appreciation. Net interest income was essentially flat with the same period a year ago, but increased 5% from the third quarter and came in above our quarterly guidance.

資產管理收入創紀錄地增長了23％，反映了有機增長和市場升值。淨利息收入與去年同期基本持平，但比第三季度增長了 5%，並且高於我們的季度預期。

I'd also note that our cash suite balances increased by $1.3 billion during the quarter, which is the second consecutive quarter we've seen these balances grow. Fourth quarter earnings per share totaled $2.23, which increased nearly 50% from the same period last year.

我還要指出的是，本季我們的現金餘額增加了 13 億美元，這是我們連續第二季看到這些餘額成長。第四季每股收益總計2.23美元，較去年同期成長近50％。

On slide 4, you can see our results change from the fourth quarter of 2023 and how they compare to consensus estimates. In terms of net revenue, we beat on every line item as revenue came in nearly $80 million or 6% above the street forecast.

在投影片 4 上，您可以看到我們的結果與 2023 年第四季相比的變化以及與普遍預期的比較。就淨收入而言，我們的每項收入都超出預期，達到近 8,000 萬美元，比華爾街預測高出 6%。

Investment banking revenue was the largest contributor accounting for more than half the total revenue to be. While higher advisory revenue was the primary driver, we also surpassed expectations for both equity and fixed income underwriting revenue.

投資銀行收入是最大的貢獻者，佔總收入的一半以上。雖然更高的諮詢收入是主要推動力，但我們的股票和固定收益承銷收入也超出了預期。

Transactional revenue was 10% ahead of the Street due to a significant beat in fixed income. Asset management revenue was 1% higher than the Street, primarily due to a higher fee capture rate as well as increased third-party sweep deposits. Net interest income was 3% above the Street estimate and above the high end of our guidance as net interest margin came in above expectations.

由於固定收益大幅超出預期，交易收入比華爾街高出 10%。資產管理收入比華爾街高出 1%，主要原因是費用捕獲率更高以及第三方清掃存款增加。由於淨利差超出預期，淨利息收入比華爾街預期高出 3%，也高於我們預期的高端。

On the expense side, our compensation ratio was 58%, which was slightly above the Street and in line with our prior guidance. Non-cmop expenses came at 9% higher than the Street due to higher provision and legal expenses, which I'll touch on later.

在費用方面，我們的薪酬比率為 58%，略高於華爾街的預期，與我們先前的預期一致。非 cmop 費用比華爾街高出 9%，原因是撥備和法律費用較高，我稍後會談到這一點。

The provision for income taxes came in below the consensus number as well as our initial guidance on last quarter's call, which provided a positive variance for our results.

所得稅準備金低於普遍預期數字以及我們上個季度的初步預期，這為我們的業績帶來了正向影響。

Turning to slide 5. Global wealth management revenue was a record $865 million and pre-tax margins totaled 37% on record asset management revenue and was our second highest quarterly transactional revenue.

翻到幻燈片 5。全球財富管理收入達到創紀錄的 8.65 億美元，資產管理收入稅前利潤率達到創紀錄的 37%，是我們第二高的季度交易收入。

We continue to see investors engage in the market, which has led to increased transactional cash. During the quarter, we added eight total advisers. This included four experienced advisers with trailing 12 month production of $8 million.

我們不斷看到投資者參與市場，這導致交易現金增加。本季度，我們總共增加了 8 位顧問。其中包括四位經驗豐富的顧問，過去 12 個月的產值達 800 萬美元。

As we've noted in the past, the fourth quarter is typically seasonally slow for recruiting. However, we entered 2025 with strong pipelines and anticipate continued success recruiting highly productive advisers to our platform.

正如我們過去所指出的，第四季通常是招募的淡季。然而，我們已擁有強大的人才儲備體系，預計在 2025 年繼續成功招募高效的顧問加入我們的平台。

We ended the quarter with record fee-based assets of $193 billion and total client assets of $501 billion. The sequential increases were due to higher equity markets and organic growth as our net new assets grew in the low single digits.

截至本季末，我們的費用資產達到創紀錄的 1,930 億美元，總客戶資產達到 5,010 億美元。由於我們的淨新資產以個位數低速成長，因此連續的成長歸因於股票市場的上漲和有機成長。

Moving on to slide 6. Our wealth management platform generated its 22nd consecutive year of record net revenue. Our long term success has been the result of our ability to attract and retain highly productive advisers and give them the support they need to most effectively manage their business to best serve their clients.

轉到投影片 6。我們的財富管理平台連續22年創下淨收入紀錄。我們的長期成功源於我們能夠吸引和留住高效的顧問，並為他們提供所需的支持，使他們能夠最有效地管理業務，為客戶提供最好的服務。

Over the past five years, we've added more than 450 experienced advisers with cumulative trailing 12 month production of more than $350 million. This has driven our steady revenue growth and has been a significant factor in the shift in our revenues to more recurring sources such as asset management fees and net interest income, which now account for more than 75% of segment revenues.

在過去五年中，我們新增了 450 多名經驗豐富的顧問，過去 12 個月的累積產值超過 3.5 億美元。這推動了我們收入的穩定成長，也是我們收入向資產管理費和淨利息收入等經常性收入來源轉變的重要因素，目前這些收入佔分部收入的75%以上。

On slide 7 I'll discuss our bank results. Client cash levels increased during the quarter led by a $1.3 billion increase in client sweep deposits and an $800 million increase in Smart Rate balances. I'd also note that total third-party deposits available to Stifel Bancorp increased to total $5 billion from $3.1 billion as we continue to see increases in both wealth management and commercial deposits.

在第 7 張投影片上，我將討論我們的銀行表現。本季客戶現金水準增加，主要原因是客戶清算存款增加了 13 億美元，智慧利率餘額增加了 8 億美元。我還要指出的是，隨著財富管理和商業存款的持續增長，Stifel Bancorp 可用的第三方存款總額從 31 億美元增加到 50 億美元。

Net interest income of $272 million came in above our guidance as firm-wide average interest earning asset levels increased by $1.3 billion and our net interest margin increased by 3 basis points to 3.12%. The increase in NIM was primarily due to lower funding costs.

2.72 億美元的淨利息收入高於我們的預期，因為全公司平均生息資產水準增加了 13 億美元，我們的淨利差增加了 3 個基點，達到 3.12%。淨利差增加主要由於融資成本下降。

As I noted on last quarter's call, our bank balance sheet is relatively rate neutral. However, we could see some modest pressure on our bank NIM in the first quarter of 2025 due to the timing of assets repricing following the last rate cut.

正如我在上個季度的電話會議上指出的那樣，我們的銀行資產負債表相對利率中立。然而，由於上次降息後資產重新定價的時機，我們可能會看到 2025 年第一季我們的銀行淨利差面臨一定壓力。

We anticipate NII in the first quarter to be in the range of 260 million to 270 million as we expect to continue to grow our balance sheet. Our credit metrics and reserve profile remain strong. The non-performing asset ratio stands at 51 basis points.

我們預計第一季的 NII 將在 2.6 億至 2.7 億之間，因為我們預計資產負債表將繼續成長。我們的信用指標和儲備狀況依然強勁。不良資產率為51個基點。

Our credit loss provision totaled $12 million for the quarter and was negatively impacted by the macroeconomic forecast and increased reserves on C&I loans and unfunded commitments. Our consolidated allowance to total loans ratio was 85 basis points.

本季我們的信用損失準備金總額為 1,200 萬美元，受到宏觀經濟預測以及商業和工業貸款及未撥付承諾準備金增加的負面影響。我們的綜合準備撥備與貸款總額比率為85個基點。

Moving on to the institutional group. Total revenue for the segment was $478 million in the quarter, which is up 33% year on year. Full year revenue of $1.6 billion was up 30% led by strong increases in each of our revenue lines.

轉向機構群體。該部門本季總營收為 4.78 億美元，年增 33%。全年營收達 16 億美元，成長 30%，主要得益於各營收項目的強勁成長。

Firm-wide investment banking revenue totaled $304 million as we again experienced sequential and year on year increases in advisory and capital raising revenue. Advisory revenue was 190 million, an increase of 47% from last year and 39% sequentially. We had a strong quarter in our financials, healthcare and consumer verticals.

全公司投資銀行收入總計 3.04 億美元，我們的諮詢和融資收入再次實現連續和同比增長。諮詢收入為1.9億美元，比去年同期成長47%，比上一季成長39%。本季度，我們在金融、醫療保健和消費者垂直領域表現強勁。

We are continuing to see activity levels build in our advisory channel, particularly within financials as the backlog at KBW continues to improve, given the pent up demand for transactions and the market's expectation for more M&A friendly administration. I note that KBW ranked number one in M&A market share in 2024 based on deal value and their announced pipelines are up significantly compared to the same time last year.

我們持續看到諮詢管道中的活動水準不斷提高，尤其是在金融領域，因為 KBW 的積壓訂單不斷改善，這得益於交易的被壓抑的需求和市場對更多併購友好型管理的預期。我注意到，KBW 根據交易價值在 2024 年的併購市場份額中排名第一，而且其宣布的交易管道與去年同期相比大幅增加。

Fixed income underwriting revenue increased 24% sequentially and 53% from the fourth quarter of 2023 driven by strong public finance revenue that increased 40% year on year.

固定收益承銷收入環比增長 24%，環比增長 53%，這得益於強勁的公共財政收入，該收入同比增長 40%。

Stifel's public finance team ranked number one by the number of negotiated issues led as sole or senior manager for the 11th consecutive year and had more than a 15% market share. Equity underwriting of $48 million was up 50% over the same period in 2023 as financials, healthcare and technology were our strongest contributors.

Stifel 的公共融資團隊連續 11 年以唯一或高階經理人領導的談判發行數量排名第一，並擁有超過 15% 的市場份額。股票承銷額為 4,800 萬美元，較 2023 年同期成長 50%，因為金融、醫療保健和科技是我們最強勁的貢獻者。

Equity transactional revenue totaled $59 million, which is up 20% sequentially driven by increased market activity and seasonality. Fixed income transactional revenue of $119 million was up 50% sequentially as we continue to benefit from the rebound in our rate business due to the shift in Fed policy, which is increased customer activity with our depository and credit union clients. I'd also note that we had a roughly $20 million trading gain during the quarter.

股權交易收入總計 5,900 萬美元，受市場活動增加和季節性影響，較上季成長 20%。固定收益交易收入為 1.19 億美元，環比增長 50%，因為我們繼續受益於聯準會政策轉變導致的利率業務反彈，這增加了我們與存款和信用合作社客戶的客戶活動。我還要指出的是，本季我們獲得了約 2000 萬美元的交易收益。

On the next slide, we go through expenses. Our comp to revenue ratio in the fourth quarter was 58%, which was in line with our quarterly guidance that we gave on our third quarter call.

在下一張投影片中，我們將討論費用。我們第四季的同店銷售額與營收比率為 58%，與我們在第三季電話會議上給出的季度指引一致。

Our full year comp ratio was also at 58%, which was at the high end of our full year guidance due to the mix of revenue. As I mentioned earlier in the call, non-comp expenses came in above Street expectations at $291 million. The higher number was the result of higher revenues leading to increased variable costs as well as higher credit provisions and legal costs.

我們的全年營業利潤率也達到了 58%，由於收入結構的原因，這一數字處於全年預期的高點。正如我之前在電話會議中提到的，非營運性支出高於華爾街的預期，達到 2.91 億美元。數字較高的原因是收入增加導致變動成本增加以及信貸準備金和法律成本增加。

Despite the increase, our non-comp operating expense ratio was 19.8% for the quarter. It was 20.6% for the full year, which was down from 21.2% in 2023.

儘管有所成長，但本季我們的非經營性營業費用率仍為 19.8%。全年為 20.6%，低於 2023 年的 21.2%。

Our tax rate for the quarter was 8.3%. As I noted on last quarter's call, we anticipated a lower tax rate in the quarter given the excess tax benefit associated with stock-based compensation. This came in better than our original guidance through the additional share price increase we experienced after the election in November.

我們本季的稅率為 8.3%。正如我在上個季度的電話會議上指出的那樣，考慮到與股票薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠，我們預計本季的稅率將會降低。由於我們在 11 月大選之後經歷了股價的額外上漲，這一結果比我們最初的預期要好。

On slide 10, I'll review our capital position. Our balance sheet continues to be well capitalized. Tier 1 leverage capital increased 10 basis points sequentially to 11.4% and our tier 1 risk-based capital ratio increased by 30 basis points to 18.2%.

在第 10 張投影片上，我將回顧我們的資本狀況。我們的資產負債表繼續保持充足的資本。一級槓桿資本較上月增加 10 個基點，至 11.4%，一級創投比較上季增加 30 個基點，至 18.2%。

Based on a 10% Tier 1 leverage ratio target, we have approximately $525 million of excess capital. We also continue to generate significant levels of additional excess capital as illustrated by the $235 million of GAAP net income that we generated in the fourth quarter. In terms of capital deployment during the quarter, I note that we increased bank assets by a $1 billion to $31.4 billion.

基於 10% 的一級槓桿率目標，我們有大約 5.25 億美元的超額資本。我們也繼續產生大量額外的過剩資本，這一點從第四季度產生的 2.35 億美元的 GAAP 淨收入可以看出。就本季的資本配置而言，我注意到我們增加了 10 億美元，達到 314 億美元。

We repurchased roughly 410,000 shares at an average price of approximately $111 with roughly 10 million shares remaining on our current authorization. As Ron mentioned earlier, our board also authorized a 10% increase in our common stock dividend. Absent any assumption for additional share purchases and assuming a stable stock price, we'd expect the first quarter fully diluted share count to be 111 million shares.

我們以平均約 111 美元的價格回購了約 41 萬股，目前授權剩餘約 1,000 萬股。正如羅恩之前提到的，我們的董事會也批准將普通股股息提高 10%。如果不假設額外股票購買，並且假設股價穩定，我們預期第一季完全稀釋股數將為 1.11 億股。

And with that, let me turn the call back over to Ron.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉回給羅恩。

Thanks, Jim. Let me conclude by going over our guidance for 2025. As I said earlier, we entered 2025 well positioned to capitalize on what appears to be a stronger operating environment than we've had in the past few years.

謝謝，吉姆。最後，我想回顧一下我們對 2025 年的指導。正如我之前所說，進入 2025 年，我們已經做好準備，利用比過去幾年更強勁的營運環境。

In terms of revenue, we are guiding to total net revenue of $5.25 billion to $5.75 billion as we anticipate growth in both operating revenue and net interest income. In terms of operating revenue, we are targeting a range of $4.15 billion to $4.55 billion.

在收入方面，我們預計總淨收入將達到 52.5 億美元至 57.5 億美元，因為我們預計營業收入和淨利息收入都將成長。在營業收入方面，我們的目標是 41.5 億美元至 45.5 億美元。

We expect wealth management revenues to grow as investors continue to redeploy cash into the market and client assets grow through recruiting and market appreciation. Institutional revenues are expected to benefit from increased investment banking activity as well as continued growth in transactional revenues, particularly in our fixed income business.

我們預計，隨著投資者繼續將現金重新部署到市場並且客戶資產透過招募和市場升值而成長，財富管理收入將會成長。機構收入預計將受益於投資銀行活動的增加以及交易收入的持續成長，特別是我們的固定收益業務。

As we stated before, we believe that we are relatively agnostic to further rate changes due to the mix of our assets and deposits. As such, we anticipate net interest income growth will be driven by balance sheet growth.

正如我們之前所說，我們認為，由於我們的資產和存款組合，我們對進一步的利率變化相對不確定。因此，我們預期淨利息收入的成長將受到資產負債表成長的推動。

Our NII guidance for the year is $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. We estimate that every $1 billion of balance sheet growth results in approximately $0.20 to $0.25 of earnings per share. Currently, we are forecasting balance sheet growth of $3 billion to $4 billion in 2025.

我們對今年的 NII 預期為 11 億至 12 億美元。我們估計，資產負債表每成長10億美元，每股盈餘就會增加約0.20至0.25美元。目前，我們預測 2025 年資產負債表將成長 30 億至 40 億美元。

In terms of expenses, we are keeping the same guidance we had for 2024. We have to make that the compensation ratio to be 56% to 58% and the non-compensation operating revenue to be 19% to 21% in 2024. Our improved pretax margin was the result of a lower non comp operating ratio as the compensation ratio remained flat. Given our assumption that all our revenue line items will increase in 2025, we would anticipate some leverage on the compensation ratio.

在費用方面，我們維持與 2024 年相同的指導方針。我們要把2024年的薪酬比例定為56%到58%，非薪酬營業收入訂為19%到21%。我們的稅前利潤率提高是由於薪資比率維持不變導致非經營性營業比率下降。鑑於我們假設我們所有的收入項目在 2025 年都會增加，我們預期薪酬比率會出現一定幅度的槓桿作用。

So if you do the math, you can see how we can generate $8 of earnings per share, which is a target that we gave all of you a few years ago. Now, the interesting thing about giving guidance is that once you appear to be in reach of your target, everyone wants to know what your next target will be. This is pretty much is what happened to us since we started talking about $8 of earnings per share. Once we appear to be within reach of our target, I started getting questions from all of our investors on this call about how we get to $10 of EPS.

所以，如果你算一下，你就會明白我們如何能夠實現每股 8 美元的收益，這是我們幾年前給你們設定的目標。現在，提供指導的有趣之處在於，一旦你似乎已經達到目標，每個人都想知道你的下一個目標是什麼。自從我們開始談論每股 8 美元的收益以來，這基本上就是我們所發生的事情。當我們似乎即將達到目標時，我開始在電話會議上收到所有投資者的問題，關於我們如何實現 10 美元的每股盈餘。

Look, I don't want this to be perceived as incremental guidance. Let me just say that we view $10 of EPS as a milestone on our way to generating $10 billion of net revenue, much like how we got to $8 of EPS, the math behind it is relatively straightforward. Essentially, we should generate earnings per share of $10 -- with $10 per share with a revenue range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion, pretax margins of around 22%, and some assumption for incremental share repurchases.

聽著，我不希望這被視為漸進式指導。我只想說，我們將每股收益 10 美元視為我們實現 100 億美元淨收入的里程碑，就像我們如何達到每股收益 8 美元一樣，背後的數學計算相對簡單。本質上，我們應該實現每股 10 美元的收益——每股 10 美元，營收範圍為 60 億美元至 65 億美元，稅前利潤率約為 22%，並假設進行增量股票回購。

Now, there are clearly a lot of variables that can impact our performance, but given the track record and our track record is a growth company and our commitment to reinvest in our business, we feel confident in our ability to execute on our long term goals and reaching these types of milestones in the not too distant future.

現在，顯然有很多變數會影響我們的業績，但考慮到我們的業績記錄，以及我們作為一家成長型公司的業績記錄，以及我們對業務再投資的承諾，我們對實現長期目標的能力充滿信心並在不久的將來達到這些里程碑。

So as we start 2025, we believe we're well positioned to capitalize on the improving market environment as we continue to drive growth by reinvesting in our business.

因此，在進入 2025 年之際，我們相信，我們已做好準備，利用不斷改善的市場環境，繼續透過對業務進行再投資來推動成長。

With that operator, let's let's open the line for questions.

有了那位接線員，讓我們開通問答熱線。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Mike Brown, Wells Fargo Securities.

謝謝。（操作員指示） 麥克布朗，富國證券。

Good morning, Mike.

早上好，麥克。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Ron, I wanted to start on the wealth side. I guess organic growth has been a little bit soft in 2024 for the industry. And you guys mentioned that the pipeline is strong. So do you expect the organic growth here to increase in '25 versus '24? And, and I guess what's the catalyst that's going to really get some of these advisers to kind of make the move, what's going to get them off the sidelines?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。羅恩，我想從財富方面開始談。我預計 2024 年該產業的有機成長將會有些疲軟。你們也提到了管道非常強大。那麼，您是否預計 25 年的有機成長率將比 24 年增加？而且，我想，有什麼因素能真正促使這些顧問採取這樣的行動，以及什麼因素能讓他們不再袖手旁觀呢？

Yeah. It's a great question. I think that as I've said many times, recruiting the long-term game, what we've been doing in a long time. And it has ebbs and flows dealing with lots of factors, some of which include compensation, transition packages, client engagement, and frankly, good markets. And in times like this -- and we've seen two years of 20% increases in the markets and fee-based assets increasing, bottom line is that recruiting in my experience generally slows during those times because transition packages are based on trailing 12 and trailing 12 is going up pretty consistently. So that's where it is.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我認為，正如我多次說過的，招募長期人才是我們長期以來一直在做的事情。它有起有落，與許多因素有關，其中包括薪酬、過渡方案、客戶參與度，坦白說，還有良好的市場。在這樣的時期——我們已經看到市場連續兩年增長了 20%，收費資產也在增加，但根據我的經驗，招聘通常會在這些時期放緩，因為過渡方案是基於過去 12 年和後面12 個一直在穩步上升。事實就是這樣的。

But look, as I look forward, I think '25 -- I had to say today, '25 will be a better recruiting year in terms of numbers when I look at our pipeline and the people we're talking to. And so I'm optimistic.

但是，展望未來，我認為 25 年——我今天必須說，當我查看我們的人才管道和我們正在交談的人員時，25 年在數字上將是一個更好的招聘年。因此我很樂觀。

But if you look long term, what the success of the long term and the foundational aspects that we've done to support our recruiting growth are stronger today. So look, I'm confident but there's ebb and flows. That's why we don't give any specific guidance.

但如果從長遠角度看，我們為支持招募成長所做的長期成功和基礎工作在今天更為強大。所以看，我很有信心，但也有起伏。這就是我們不提供任何具體指導的原因。

One thing I'd add to that as you think about 2025, we'll also be closing the B. Riley transaction probably in the first half of the year. And that could add somewhere between 30, 35 advisers somewhere around 18 million to 20 million of T12. So something considered in your forecast as well.

我想補充一點，當你想到 2025 年時，我們大概也會在今年上半年完成 B. Riley 交易。這樣就可以增加 30 到 35 名顧問，大約 1800 萬到 2000 萬 T12。所以您的預測中也考慮了一些因素。

Okay, great. Thanks for that color. I'll just change gears to the 2025 guidance. One of the things that stood out to me is the bottom end of the comp range, the 56%. When I look back, 58% has kind of been the historical spot for Stifel and just given the momentum across the franchise, it does make sense that you could certainly get to that level.

好的，太好了。謝謝你這個顏色。我將把話題轉到 2025 年的指導上。讓我印象深刻的一件事是同類產品範圍的底端，即 56%。當我回顧過去時，58% 已經成為 Stifel 的歷史最高點，考慮到整個特許經營的勢頭，達到這一水平也是有道理的。

I guess, curious what would drive you towards the bottom end of that range in '25? And then if you play this forward and the capital markets recovery continues into the '26 and markets remain supportive, is there enough comp leverage to eventually go below 56%?

我猜，很好奇是什麼促使您在 25 年走向該範圍的底端？然後，如果您繼續這樣發展，資本市場復甦持續到26年，市場仍然保持支持，那麼是否有足夠的競爭槓桿最終降至56％以下？

Yeah, it's a great question. And again, there's a -- I wish it was simple as just putting a couple of numbers in the calculator, right, and giving you the answer. It's not because of various factors that we've discussed numerous times in this call, primarily the need to be competitive in the marketplace.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。再說一次，我希望它很簡單，只需在計算器中輸入幾個數字，然後就可以得到答案了。這並不是因為我們在這次電話會議中多次討論過的各種因素，主要是需要在市場上保持競爭力。

And in times like this, the recruiting and the need to protect our franchise is acute. Alright. It just it is and it has been. But the one factor that I would say, that happened last year is an illustration. We've stayed consistent with our 58% capital revenue. And I feel that that's really managing it because NII, which is a positive contributor to our leverage in the comp ratio actually declined.

在這種時候，招募和保護我們的特許經營權的需要就變得十分迫切。好吧。事實就是如此，而且一直如此。但我想說，去年發生的一個因素就是一個很好的例子。我們的資本收入一直維持在58%的水平。我認為這確實能起到管理作用，因為 NII 對我們的槓桿率產生了積極貢獻，但實際上卻下降了。

As we go forward, we expect NII to grow and as that grows, that provides the ability to have a little more flexibility in our comp ratio. Also productivity will increase. That also helps.

隨著我們不斷前進，我們預計 NII 將會成長，隨著它的成長，這將為我們的薪酬比率提供更多的靈活性。生產效率也將提高。這也有幫助。

We also run our -- a lot of our investments through that number, right? So we've made some significant investments and that's running through. So net-net, I'm comfortable with 56% to 58%. I'm confident as we increase NII, we can see leverage to reduce the comp ratio, but we're always going to be cognizant of our competitive position relative to everything else.

我們的許多投資也是透過這個數字進行的，對嗎？因此，我們進行了一些重大投資，並且正在進行中。因此總體而言，我對 56% 到 58% 的比例感到滿意。我相信，隨著我們增加 NII，我們可以看到降低補償比率的槓桿作用，但我們始終會意識到我們相對於其他一切的競爭地位。

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my question.

好的，太好了。感謝您回答我的問題。

Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

德文·瑞安（Devin Ryan），公民 JMP。

Hey, good morning, Ron, Jim. How are you?

嘿，早上好，羅恩，吉姆。你好嗎？

Good.

好的。

Morning. A question on operating leverage in the institutional segment as the business continues to recover. And I guess tying that to the 2025 guide range for revenues and margins, does that, in that business, reflect kind of that more normalized environment, Ron, where we're recovering toward something quite a bit better than we've been in?

早晨。隨著業務持續復甦，關於機構部門的經營槓桿的問題。我想，將其與 2025 年的收入和利潤指導範圍聯繫起來，是否在那項業務中反映了一種更加正常化的環境，羅恩，我們正在恢復到比以前好得多的水平？

And as we think about your margins specifically in that business here, you were 0% in 2023, 14% this year, 20% in 2020 -- 26% in 2021. So just want to think about kind of, are we -- is 2025 at normalized number of revenues? And then when does the margin get back to you when the business does normalize if it's not in 2025? Thanks.

當我們考慮您在此業務中的具體利潤率時，2023 年的利潤率為 0%，今年為 14%，2020 年為 20%，2021 年為 26%。所以只是想一下，我們——2025 年的收入數量是否達到正常水平？那麼，如果不是在 2025 年，當業務恢復正常時，利潤什麼時候會回到您手中？謝謝。

Not quite sure I -- what do you want me to assume 2025 to be, so I can answer your question.

我不太確定——你想讓我假設 2025 年會是什麼，這樣我就可以回答你的問題了。

Yeah, I'm just getting at is the '25 guidance reflecting kind of a normalized investment or institution segment revenue and margin or are we still normalizing towards that, which would imply that there's still quite a bit of upside even beyond the 2025 number, is really what I'm getting.

是的，我只是想說，2025 年的指引是否反映了一種標準化的投資或機構部門收入和利潤率，或者我們是否仍在朝著這個方向標準化，這意味著即使在2025 年之後，仍有相當大的上升空間，確實是我得到的。

Look, Devin, I'll say, and I'll let Jim, he can add color to what I'm about to say. But our -- we've been pretty conservative and even getting to -- talking about $8 and talking about rebounding and what's the earnings power. We talked about a retracement from say $2.2 billion in institutional revenue that dropped to $1.2 billion with no margins, as you said, to about $1.6 billion, which is pretty much what we said -- what we thought would happen.

聽著，德文，我會說，我會讓吉姆，他可以為我要說的話增添色彩。但我們的 — — 我們一直相當保守，甚至討論 8 美元，討論反彈以及盈利能力如何。我們談到了機構收入從 22 億美元回落到 12 億美元（沒有利潤）的回撤，正如您所說，大約為 16 億美元，這基本上就是我們所說的——我們認為會發生的情況。

And we talked about that getting to $1.8 billion that would begin to normalize. 2021 was an extraordinary time, pulled forward a lot of business into that time frame. I didn't view that as a normalized operating environment. I viewed it as having a lot of factors. That doesn't mean it's our ceiling. It just means that that's not necessarily normalized.

我們討論過，達到 18 億美元後，這數字將開始正常化。 2021 年是一個非凡的時期，許多業務都提前到了那個時間段。我並不認為那是正常的操作環境。我認為這是有很多因素的。但這並不意味著這是我們的極限。這只是意味著這不一定是正常化的。

So look, what I would say would be that we're looking toward those margins in institutional which, by the way, the institutional business does not get any credit for NII for the most part. We keep that in the bank and wealth and there are some benefits. But look, I target in my mind as we normalize is that margin should get around 20% and in good markets, it can be higher. The real question is going to be, is how does 2025 play out. We have an economy, we have a set of factors including a normalization of a rate curve, a deregulatory environment, an administration that appears to encourage M&A versus discourage M&A. A huge pent up amount of supply, if you will, of companies and private equity that need to return money to limited partners, that's going to drive capital raising, that's going to drive M&A.

所以，我想說的是，我們正在關注機構的利潤率，順便說一句，機構業務在很大程度上不會為 NII 帶來任何好處。我們將其存入銀行並享受財富，並獲得一些好處。但是，我心中的目標是，隨著我們正常化，利潤率應該達到 20% 左右，而在良好的市場條件下，利潤率可能會更高。真正的問題是 2025 年將會如何發展。我們有經濟，有一系列因素，包括利率曲線的正常化、放鬆管制的環境、似乎鼓勵併購而不是阻止併購的政府。如果你願意的話，大量的公司和私募股權需要向有限合夥人返還資金，這將推動融資，推動併購。

So if this plays out, absent some geopolitical or some extraneous event that certainly can happen, then 2025 would be a pretty good year. And we can exceed what I'm laying out now. But as we forecast, we're having the same conservativeness that we always have.

因此，如果情況順利發展，除非發生某些地緣政治事件或某些必然發生的外部事件，否則 2025 年將會是個相當不錯的年份。我們可以超越我現在所訂定的目標。但正如我們預測的那樣，我們將一如既往地保持保守態度。

As you think about the normalized environment in 2025, in essence, we'd be guiding to, call it, $200 million of additional revenues. And so we'd be able to, theoretically, get to that 20% margin. Any enhancement from there is really going to be a function of some of the efficiencies we're trying to obtain with our international operations both across Europe and Canada.

當您考慮 2025 年的正常化環境時，本質上，我們將引導所謂的 2 億美元的額外收入。因此從理論上講，我們能夠達到 20% 的利潤率。任何改進實際上都將取決於我們試圖透過歐洲和加拿大的國際業務獲得的一些效率。

Obviously, we recently announced the acquisition of Bryan Garnier, which will close at some point in 2025. There's various steps we're taking there to improve profitability and it really take achieving the efficiencies we're talking about there internationally to see any upside to the 20%.

顯然，我們最近宣布了對 Bryan Garnier 的收購，該收購將在 2025 年的某個時候完成。我們正在採取各種措施來提高獲利能力，而且只有達到我們在國際上談論的效率，才能看到 20% 的上升空間。

Yeah. Okay. That's great color, guys. Thank you for that. Appreciate it. And then on the -- and then the net interest income, obviously very good outlook there as well. Relatively resilient NIM outlook, healthy loan demand. Let me just dig into kind of where you're seeing the loan demand come from. And then more broadly, how you would frame this loan demand today? You've obviously widened the funnel within kind of your channels and then just what current capacity looks like for lending as well? Thanks.

是的。好的。夥計們，這顏色真棒。謝謝你。非常感謝。然後是淨利息收入，顯然前景也非常好。淨利差前景相對堅韌，貸款需求健康。讓我深入分析一下貸款需求的來源。那麼更廣泛地說，您今天如何建立這種貸款需求？你們顯然已經拓寬了通路範圍，那麼目前的貸款能力又如何呢？謝謝。

Jim?

吉姆？

So you look back to 2024, we grew loans in a somewhat defensive posture, more than a $1 billion. And I think as we look to 2025, it'd be more of the same. I think you're going to see a focus on both fund banking and venture lending as well as the retail lending. The retail lending is a little harder to predict. We grew several $100 million in our mortgage portfolio in the past year. So I think you can see continued growth there.

回顧 2024 年，我們以某種防禦姿態增加了貸款，超過 10 億美元。我認為展望 2025 年，情況還會大致相同。我認為你會看到人們將專注於基金銀行和風險貸款以及零售貸款。零售貸款有點難以預測。去年，我們的抵押貸款組合增加了數億美元。因此我認為你可以看到那裡持續的成長。

And from an SBL perspective, securities-based lending, we saw some tick up recently and loan growth there. But again, that that was a little bit harder to determine, but those are the areas where we're going to see most of the capital allocated to in terms of loan growth as we look forward to 2025.

從證券借貸的角度來看，我們最近看到證券借貸有所回升，貸款也出現了成長。但同樣，這有點難以確定，但展望 2025 年，我們將看到大部分資本被分配到貸款成長領域。

Loan demand is Strong.

貸款需求強勁。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨（Bill Katz），TD Cowen 公司。

Great. Thank you very much. I appreciate all the -- good morning, everybody, and thank you so much for your guidance and color. Just some of the items that you didn't explicitly forecast. I was just curious, given -- I think you mentioned in your press release that there was a little bit of erosion in the credit book, I wonder if you could talk to how you sort of think about the normalized provision for 2025?

偉大的。非常感謝。我感謝所有人——大家早安，非常感謝你們的指導和貢獻。只是一些您沒有明確預測的項目。我只是很好奇，鑑於——我認為您在新聞稿中提到信用賬簿出現了一些侵蝕，我想知道您是否可以談談您對 2025 年正常化準備金的看法？

And then Jim, I was sort of curious just to how to think about the tax rate for the year. And underneath that, it seems like you're assuming flat share count, but how we think about capital deployment, is it all sort of bank lending at this point or are there other opportunities? Thank you.

然後吉姆，我有點好奇如何考慮今年的稅率。在這之下，您似乎假設了固定的股數，但我們如何考慮資本配置，目前都是銀行貸款嗎，還是有其他機會？謝謝。

Before Jim answers that, you asking us to expand our guidance? I just want to know the tone. But I don't know -- Jim, answer.

在吉姆回答這個問題之前，你要求我們擴大我們的指導範圍嗎？我只是想知道語氣。但我不知道 —— 吉姆，回答。

Well, I'll touch over. We talked about the provision expense during the quarter and that's kind of a guide as you think forward. But in the quarter, the provision was slightly elevated. We referenced the macroeconomic forecast. And so basically, what you're seeing there is a higher interest rate environment for longer. You're also seeing credit spreads widen in later 2025. Those things drive an additional provision expense within the CECL model.

嗯，我來看一下。我們討論了本季的撥備費用，這對您未來思考來說是一種指導。但在本季度，撥備略有增加。我們參考了宏觀經濟預測。因此基本上，你所看到的是一個長期的高利率環境。您還會看到信用利差在 2025 年下半年擴大。這些因素導致了 CECL 模式中額外的撥備費用。

Now, where that forecast is going to go as we think forward into 2025 is very hard to predict. The CECL calculation is somewhat dependent upon that. So we're not going to try to predict where that forecast is going, but that's really what had the impact on the fourth quarter.

現在，當我們展望 2025 年時，很難預測這個預測將會如何。CECL 計算在某種程度上依賴於此。因此，我們不會試圖預測該預測的結果，但這確實對第四季度產生了影響。

In terms of the tax rate, obviously, at a little over 8% the quarter came in, well below where we were originally thinking. If we essentially hold the stock price where it's at today, which again, it's very hard to determine or make an estimate of, we'd have a pretty big benefit next year.

就稅率而言，本季的稅率顯然略高於 8%，遠低於我們最初的預期。如果我們基本上維持今天的股價，這再次很難確定或估計，明年我們將獲得相當大的收益。

So historically, we've talked about 25% to 26% in terms of a full year effective tax rate or quarterly effective tax rate. But again, this year, we're more around 21% and absent a material change in the stock price, I would expect, around, maybe a 20% to 21% effective tax rate. Again, that will be back loaded into the fourth quarter. Just giving how the accounting works for that specific discrete item. But 20%, 21% with the Stifel stock price is a good way to think about it.

從歷史上看，我們討論的全年有效稅率或季度有效稅率是 25% 到 26%。但是，今年我們的有效稅率大約在 21% 左右，如果股價沒有重大變化，我預計有效稅率將大約在 20% 到 21% 左右。再次，這將重新影響到第四季度。僅說明針對特定離散項目的會計工作方式。但是，以 Stifel 的股價來算，20%、21% 是一個不錯的考慮方式。

Bill, and you can just think about it, we don't really disclose. But I will say that the way our stock-based compensation works, we have -- we generally just have a little bit longer. We have five and seven year type deferral. So we're hand -- we're distributing stock for tax purposes that we issued a number of years ago. And so this is -- as long as you have a rise in stock price, this is pretty consistent.

比爾，你可以想一想，我們實際上並沒有透露。但我要說的是，按照我們股票薪酬的運作方式，我們通常會剩下一點點時間。我們有五年和七年的延期。因此，我們正在分發幾年前發行的用於稅收目的的股票。所以只要股價上漲，這種情況就相當一致。

And with our performance in the last year, it was even more significant. So even if we just held here, we have a number of historical stock grants that were issued at lower prices that will deduct for tax purposes at higher prices. And that's why I think what Jim said, at these levels we would look next year and say, oh, this is nice.

結合我們去年的表現，這一點就顯得更加重要。因此，即使我們只是在這裡持有，我們也有一些以較低價格發行的歷史股票贈與，這些股票贈與將在更高的價格下扣除稅金。這就是為什麼我認為正如吉姆所說，在這些層面上，我們會展望明年並說，哦，這很好。

Okay. I was just wondering if you might come in on. So how do you think about capital allocation, seems like maybe bank growth is the primary focus for '25 and maybe I'm incorrect on that. And then relatedly as a follow up, just sort of curious you mentioned that client cash has improved a little bit. I think wanted to unpack the seasonal dynamic that until the end of the year and how things are trending in the early part of '25 in terms of cash -- client cash trends? Thanks.

好的。我只是想知道你是否可以加入。那麼您如何看待資本配置？然後作為後續問題，我很好奇您提到客戶現金有所改善。我想解開到年底的季節性動態，以及 25 年初現金（顧客現金趨勢）的趨勢如何？謝謝。

Yeah, I'll give -- I'll let Jim hit the trends and maybe a little more detail. Like, the first part of that question. Yeah. (multiple speakers) Well, look, I think if you do the numbers and you talk about balance sheet growth and put capital to that, and then you look at our increase in our dividend of of 10%.

是的，我會讓吉姆了解趨勢，也許會提供更詳細的資訊。就像這個問題的第一部分。是的。（多位發言者）嗯，你看，我認為如果你看一下數字，並談論資產負債表的增長並投入資本，然後你就會看到我們的股息增加了 10%。

And then you put in some stock repurchase, so you will conclude that we're building capital. Meaning that we have some excess capital that we will be thinking about how best to deploy that based upon the opportunities that present themselves to us.

然後你進行一些股票回購，所以你會得出結論，我們正在累積資本。這意味著我們有一些多餘的資本，我們將考慮如何根據目前出現的機會來最佳配置這些資本。

As it relates to the capital build, I've been pleased with really -- I can go back a few years and Jim, tell me when, but I'll say even four or five years ago, we really had no commercial deposits or very few.

至於資本建設，我對此感到非常高興——我可以回溯到幾年前，吉姆，告訴我什麼時候，但我要說的是，即使在四五年前，我們真的沒有商業存款或非常少。

And now today, because of the investments we've made in venture lending, we've seen significant growth and I think we're just getting started in our commercial deposits relating to our venture business. Well, that trend if you want to pick up from here, Jim, but it's -- I wouldn't say it was anything really seasonal, it's more that we're getting that business going.

現在，由於我們在風險貸款方面的投資，我們已經看到了顯著的成長，我認為我們才剛開始開展與創投業務相關的商業存款業務。好吧，吉姆，如果你想從這裡了解這個趨勢，但它是——我不會說它真的是季節性的，更多的是我們正在進行這項業務。

You think about the growth in the fourth quarter. Obviously, we talked about the increase in the Suite program and that was nice to see for a second consecutive quarter. We have seen that pull back a little bit in the last week or two.

你想想第四季的成長。顯然，我們談論了 Suite 計劃的成長，很高興看到連續第二個季度實現這一成長。在過去一兩周里，我們看到這種趨勢有所回落。

Some of that kind of moves around from a day-to-day basis. You could see $100 million swings in and out on a day to day basis there, but it has pulled back some. We have seen continued strong growth as Ron mentioned within the venture deposits. If you go back to the fourth quarter, we had over 700 million of additional venture deposits we brought on to the platform during the quarter.

有些這樣的事每天都在發生。你可以看到那裡每天都有 1 億美元的波動，但現在已經回落了一些。正如羅恩所提到的，我們看到風險存款持續強勁成長。如果回顧第四季度，我們在該季度為該平台帶來了超過 7 億美元的額外風險投資存款。

We've been more in the lines of call it, $300 million or $400 million a quarter, I think as we look forward, if you're trying to run rate that $300 million to $400 million might be a slightly better number. But we just had a strong end of the year in terms of bringing deposits on. So I think that kind of gives you an update kind of through at least yesterday of where we stand in terms of cash balances.

我們更多的是將其稱為每季 3 億美元或 4 億美元，我認為，展望未來，如果你想要以這個速度運行，那麼 3 億到 4 億美元可能是一個更好的數字。但我們今年底的存款成長表現強勁。所以我認為這可以讓你了解至少截至昨天我們的現金餘額的最新情況。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the question. I mean, I think it's pretty widely expected for the capital markets dynamics to improve in 2025 and into the '26 we've talked about for a little while. I guess if you look at your investment banking business and definitely not asking you to put an explicit number on this. But if you look at where that peak back in 2021 with the forces in play, how do you think about the peak revenues for this business in this current cycle? Any KPIs you can provide us to think about either in terms of Senior MDs in the banking division or anything else to kind of help us frame the opportunity set in this business for the next couple of years.

嘿，大家早安。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，我認為人們普遍預計資本市場動態將在 2025 年以及我們之前談論的 2026 年得到改善。我想，如果你看看你的投資銀行業務，絕對不會要求你給出一個明確的數字。但是，如果您回顧 2021 年的峰值，並考慮各種因素的影響，您如何看待當前週期中該業務的峰值收入？您能否提供任何 KPI 供我們考慮，無論是從銀行部門的高級董事總經理的角度還是其他任何方面，以幫助我們在未來幾年內建立這個業務中的機會。

Yeah, you got to start at maybe the product level and then the segment level and what we're expecting and as we look at it today. So first, I think the environment is going to be a lot better. You got to remember, I said you had this for a lot of the banks our side, you had the SPAC phenomenon on that that drove a lot of business that was sort of a backwards IPO as we all know. So, I'd like to -- one of the things I'd like to do is see the administration make capital raising, the Jobs Act if you will, which I think has a good chance of re-energizing the markets.

是的，你可能要從產品層面開始，然後再從細分層面開始，看看我們今天所期待的是什麼。所以首先，我認為環境將會變得更好。你得記住，我說過，我們這邊很多銀行都有這種情況，有 SPAC 現象，推動了很多業務，這有點像我們都知道的倒退的 IPO。所以，我想——我想做的事情之一就是看到政府籌集資金，如果你願意的話可以稱之為《就業法案》，我認為這很有機會重新激發市場活力。

So, what I would say, I'm not really going to try and Jim can talk about what he thinks about our numbers. I'm not going to put a cap in any of our numbers. It's going to be driven though by where we really have seen a growth and that is in financials, healthcare, consumer and tech.

所以，我想說的是，我不會真正嘗試，吉姆可以談談他對我們的數字的看法。我不會對我們的人數設限。然而，它將受到我們真正看到成長的領域的推動，即金融、醫療保健、消費和科技。

If you ask me today, I would say, the -- certainly, the financial looks -- markets look strong, consumer and industrial looks strong. Healthcare is taking a little bit of a breath here trying to understand what's going to happen with the new secretary and et cetera. But all together, it's, as you said, Alex, it's going to be a good environment. We feel that we have more capability than we had in 2021. But I'm reluctant to put some numbers on that, albeit to say, I think it's going to be a better year than '24.

如果你今天問我，我會說——當然，金融市場看起來很強勁，消費和工業看起來很強勁。醫療保健部門正在稍事休息，試圖了解新部長會發生什麼事等等。但總而言之，正如你所說，亞歷克斯，這將是一個良好的環境。我們覺得我們的能力比 2021 年更強。但我不願意給出具體的數字，儘管我認為今年會比24年更好。

So specifically, to some of your questions related to MDs, we did disclose the number at 212 in terms of MDs as at the end of the year. And with the Bryan Garnier transaction, we'll be bringing on an additional 33. But I would just say, Ron talked about ECM and facts and whatnot leading to some of the pretty substantial level of revenues for banking in 2021, but we've made a lot of investments in M&A bankers.

具體來說，對於您提出的一些與 MD 相關的問題，我們確實揭露了截至年底的 MD 數量為 212。隨著 Bryan Garnier 的交易，我們將新增 33 名員工。但我只想說，羅恩談到了 ECM 和事實等，這些導致了 2021 年銀行業收入的相當可觀的水平，但我們在併購銀行家方面進行了大量投資。

And I think as we sit here today, we do see the M&A levels reaching similar to what we saw in 2021, given all those investments we've made across our platform, across various different industries. As we sit here today and think about the financial vertical, our announced pipeline is three times what it was a year ago. So it gives you some idea of what we're looking at.

我認為，考慮到我們在整個平台、跨不同行業進行的所有投資，我們今天在這裡確實看到併購水準達到與 2021 年類似的水平。今天，當我們坐在這裡思考財務垂直領域時，我們宣布的管道數量是一年前的三倍。這可以讓您了解我們正在看什麼。

Announced.

已公佈。

Announced.

已公佈。

And I think that's a fair point that that -- I focus on the EC and the capital raising of 2021. But I think what Jim just said, I want to just underline, which is that that was a little bit more market driven, capability driven. When you look at our team, we're putting on the field, you can look at M&A and M&A is reaching those levels of peak market. So that's just underscoring what Jim just said. And look Alex, I do think it's going to be a good environment for us.

我認為這是一個公平的觀點——我關注的是 EC 和 2021 年的融資。但我認為，我想強調的是，正如吉姆剛才所說，這更多的是由市場和能力所驅動的。當你看到我們的團隊，看到我們正在投入這個領域時，你可以看到併購，而併購正在達到市場的巔峰水平。這只是強調了吉姆剛才所說的話。亞歷克斯，我確實認為這對我們來說將是一個良好的環境。

Yeah, that's really helpful color. Thank you. Second question just around non-comp expense growth. When you normalize for investment banking growth ups and loan reserves, it looks like you guys have been pretty consistently in sort of 10%-ish year over year growth for the last couple of years and non-comp expense.

是的，這顏色真的很有幫助。謝謝。第二個問題是關於非經營性支出成長。當您將投資銀行成長和貸款儲備標準化時，看起來你們在過去幾年和非營利支出方面一直保持著 10% 左右的同比增長。

Your guidance implies, I think, something similar to that for 2025. Any framework to think about how you can sort of bend this cost curve a little, what's driving sort of this pace of expense growth. So any anything else you guys could provide to help us think through sort of the longer-term expectations for that expense?

我認為，您的指導意見與 2025 年的情況類似。有沒有任何框架可以思考如何稍微改變這個成本曲線，是什麼推動了這種費用成長的速度。那麼你們還能提供什麼其他資訊來幫助我們思考這筆費用的長期預期嗎？

Well, look, in many ways, non-comp up, there is some leverage in the fact that you know that the fixed components of non comp around some of the communications and quotes and some of that is there. But the big items also are the variable components which we believe drives revenue and drives future revenue. So we're always pretty consistent. We look at it hard in that.

嗯，你看，在很多方面，非薪酬都有一些槓桿作用，因為你知道非薪酬的固定組成部分圍繞著一些溝通和報價，而其中的一些就在那裡。但我們認為，大件商品也是推動收入和未來收入的可變因素。因此我們總是非常一致。我們對此進行了認真的審視。

But where we really saw the curve bent was during the pandemic when no one was traveling and no one was doing conferences and doing all that. And we're not -- we could do that and you'd really see a bend for a year, but you might see some bend in revenues going the wrong way as well.

但我們真正看到曲線彎曲的時候是在疫情期間，當時沒有人旅行，也沒有人開會等等。我們不會——我們可能會這樣做，你確實會看到一年的彎路，但你也可能會看到收入也朝著錯誤的方向彎曲。

So I think we've been pretty consistent. I think we've done a really good job over years of managing margins and non-comp relative to the balance between investing and client acquisition revenues. It's an important mix in something that we look at.

所以我認為我們一直都非常一致。我認為，多年來，我們在管理利潤和損益方面做得非常好，在投資和客戶獲取收入之間取得了平衡。這是我們所看到的事物中的重要組合。

And if you drill down into the 4Q numbers in what we reported, we had call it $12 million of legal expenses. Those are very episodic. They're very hard to predict if you exclude that from that number and you look at that from an op ratio perspective, you'd be right at 19.0%.

如果您深入研究我們報告的第四季度數字，您會發現法律費用為 1200 萬美元。這些都是非常偶然的。如果將其從該數字中排除，並從營運比率的角度來看，則很難預測，結果將正好是 19.0%。

And so again, it's hard to predict when those types of costs are going to hit our P&L and over time they periodically show up. But if you look at the core kind of operating expenses, it essentially was at the bottom of our range in the fourth quarter and that shows some of the potential ops leverage, absent some of those episodic costs.

因此，再次強調，很難預測這些類型的成本何時會影響我們的損益表，並且隨著時間的推移，它們會定期出現。但如果你看一下核心營運費用，它基本上處於第四季度的範圍底部，這表明了一些潛在的營運槓桿，沒有一些偶發成本。

Awesome, great. Thank you, guys.

太棒了，太棒了。謝謝你們。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Hi, good morning, Ron. Good morning, Jim. Hope you're both well.

嗨，早上好，羅恩。早安，吉姆。祝你們一切都好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wanted to ask on the FIC business. The performance has really started to improve, that full year revenue number of $390 million. It's approaching a previous record. And as we look at an environment with the recent steeping in the curve potentially sparking some increased engagement from the depositories in particular, just how you're thinking about the revenue potential for the FIC business, especially since we haven't seen a normal environment with the contribution from Vining Sparks and just what it can generate in the absence of further trading gains.

我想問一下關於FIC業務的問題。業績確實開始好轉，全年收入達到 3.9 億美元。它正在接近之前的記錄。我們看到，近期曲線陡峭化的環境可能會引發存管機構的更多參與，您如何看待 FIC 業務的收入潛力，尤其是因為我們還沒有看到正常的環境加上Vining Sparks 的貢獻以及在沒有進一步交易收益的情況下所能產生的影響。

I'll let Jim give some color. But I think he said in his remarks that he saw growth in that business. I think your words were especially in fixed income, what you said, you didn't put any numbers to it. So look, we made some investments, we've made some investments in our structure business, our securitization business, we made hires in the SBA business.

我會讓吉姆給一些顏色。但我認為他在講話中說過他看到了該業務的成長。我認為你的話特別是在固定收益方面，你所說的話並沒有給出任何數字。所以看，我們做了一些投資，我們對我們的結構業務，我們的證券化業務做了一些投資，我們在 SBA 業務中招募了一些員工。

And then the [Jenny] type business, all of which are on the origination side of products that go into the so-called Vining Sparksv and our depository business. And you're seeing an environment with the normalization of the yield curve and some of the credit spread and a number of things coming together that I think bodes well up for fixed income.

然後是 [Jenny] 類型的業務，所有這些都屬於所謂的 Vining Sparksv 和我們的存管業務的產品發起方面。而且，您會看到殖利率曲線和部分信用利差正常化，以及許多因素共同作用的環境，我認為這對固定收益來說是個好兆頭。

In many ways, our timing on Vining Sparks was a little challenged relative to what happened with rates and bank balance sheets. But the good news is we had a great integration. We kept all the talent and now we're reaping the benefits of that.

從很多方面來看，相對於利率和銀行資產負債表的狀況而言，我們對 Vining Sparks 的時機把握有點困難。但好消息是我們實現了很好的整合。我們保留了所有的人才，現在我們正在收穫由此帶來的利益。

So look, I think part of it is a good environment and part of it is is that we put some capabilities in place that's in the market, didn't allow us to show you what those capabilities would be able to do in a better environment. And I think you'll see that.

所以，我認為部分原因是環境良好，部分原因是我們在市場上部署了一些能力，但無法向你展示這些能力在更好的環境中能做什麼。我想你會看到這一點。

I'd just supplement that by saying, obviously, the rate is our biggest business, right? And if you see banks start to engage in trading activity, I think that bodes well for an environment for us. The other thing I would say, just generally speaking, is we did have some trading gains throughout this past year. And so as you think about the growth potential, I think we're talking about the core business, but the -- some of those lumpier trading gains are a little episodic in nature. And I wouldn't necessarily run rate those.

我想補充一下，顯然利率是我們最大的業務，對吧？如果您發現銀行開始參與交易活動，我認為這對我們的環境來說是一個好兆頭。我想說的另一件事是，一般來說，我們在過去的一年裡確實取得了一些交易收益。因此，當您考慮成長潛力時，我認為我們談論的是核心業務，但其中一些不穩定的交易收益在本質上有點偶發性。而且我不一定會對這些進行評分。

Yeah, and importantly, when you get to -- when you look at our businesses and how we manage business, importantly, how we manage risk, I just want to just reiterate that we're seeing a lot of this but you don't see us taking on risk on our balance sheet. You don't see us getting transactions done because we're taking a slice of something and putting it on our balance sheet.

是的，重要的是，當你看到我們的業務以及我們如何管理業務，重要的是，我們如何管理風險時，我只想重申，我們看到了很多這樣的情況，但你沒有看到我們在資產負債表上承擔風險。你看不到我們完成交易，因為我們正在分得一部分並將其放在我們的資產負債表上。

So the principal risk and the risk adjusted return on our fixed income business are quite high. And I would be remiss if I didn't also mention that within fixed income, we just had a phenomenal year in public winning.

因此，我們的固定收益業務的本金風險和風險調整後的報酬都相當高。如果我不提及，那我就是失職了，在固定收益領域，我們剛剛度過了非凡的一年，獲得了公眾的青睞。

All right. And our public finance team deserves a call out on this call as to -- being number one in market share and number of transactions. We've become really relevant, maybe not in the biggest deal but across America when you're talking about financing schools and housing and all of those things. Our team has done a phenomenal job. And that -- our look forward in that segment is also very positive.

好的。我們的公共財政團隊在這次會議上值得稱讚——在市場份額和交易數量方面名列第一。我們已經變得非常重要，也許不是在最大的交易中，而是在全美國，當你談論資助學校和住房以及所有這些事情時。我們的團隊做出了非凡的工作。而且，我們對該領域的展望也非常積極。

That's really great color. And for my follow up, I have to ask on Sweep Cash, Jim, and I'm really trying to help you here since you noted that Sweep Cash balances so far in January are down just given the magnitude of the growth that we saw in 4Q. I was hoping you could explicitly quantify the reduction that you've seen in January. And what level of Sweep deposit growth is actually underpinning the NII guidance for the coming year.

這顏色真是棒極了。我要跟進的是，我必須問一下 Sweep Cash 的問題，Jim，我真的想在這裡幫助你，因為你注意到，考慮到 1 月份的增長幅度，Sweep Cash 餘額到目前為止有所下降。 4Q。我希望您能明確量化一月的減幅。而 Sweep 存款成長的水平實際上支撐了來年的 NII 指導方針。

So in terms of -- I won't give you an exact number, but the num -- the Sweep balances are down probably a couple $100 million in January. Again, two weeks ago, they were up a couple $100 million. That number moves around a lot. I'm not going to sit here and try to predict where they'll be reported at the end of January. But generally speaking, we feel good about a linear step up in some of those balances over 2025.

因此就——我不會給你一個確切的數字，但數字——1 月份 Sweep 餘額可能下降了幾百萬美元。再說了，兩週前，他們就獲利了數億美元。該數字波動很大。我不會坐在這裡試圖預測一月底他們會在哪裡報告。但總體而言，我們對 2025 年部分餘額的線性提升感到滿意。

Jim, January, in my experience is -- for investor dynamics, a number of things that happen reallocation, people re-getting into the market if they did tax loss selling. January generally is -- sees a decline in balances as investors start engaging in the new year. So I wouldn't put too much into that.

吉姆，根據我的經驗，一月份對於投資者動態而言，會發生許多事情進行重新分配，如果人們進行了​​稅收損失出售，他們就會重新進入市場。一月份通常情況是——隨著投資者開始進入新的一年，餘額會下降。所以我不會投入太多精力在這上面。

And the other question you talked about is kind of the underpinning for the '25 forecast. And I'll just say, we are including in our forecast that all of the loan growth we're talking about of $3 billion to $4 billion is fully funded by Smart Rate and venture deposits. If we were to see more of a build across the suite balances, that would be incremental performance in terms of NII that we could produce.

您談到的另一個問題是 25 年預測的基礎。我只想說，我們預測的所有貸款成長（30億至40億美元）都完全由智慧利率和風險存款資助。如果我們看到套件餘額的更多構建，那將是我們可以產生的 NII 方面的增量性能。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

瑞銀的布倫南‧霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

Good morning, Ron and Jim. Thanks for taking my question. Ron, you referenced the expectation of comp leverage moving forward, which makes a lot of sense given your outlook for revenue growth. I'm hoping you could maybe help me unpack what happened though in the fourth quarter because both segments actually sort of beat us on the comp ratio but the firm wide missed by a bit. So could you maybe unpack what caused that disconnect?

早上好，羅恩和吉姆。感謝您回答我的問題。羅恩，您提到了對未來公司槓桿率的預期，考慮到您對收入成長的前景，這很有意義。我希望您能幫助我解釋一下第四季度發生的事情，因為這兩個部門實際上在同行業比率上都擊敗了我們，但整個公司的情況略有不同。那麼你能解釋一下導致這種斷開的原因是什麼嗎？

I could jump in there, Ron, and jump in if you want to supplement that. But generally speaking, you see more of a fill of the admin accrual late in the year, right? So you're filling the buckets across the models for the commission based, the formulaic more based institutional folks, and a good portion of that kind of what's left over fills the admin in that pool. And that just historically is back end loaded in the year and that's what's reflected in that segment.

羅恩，如果你想補充這一點的話，我可以插話。但一般來說，您會看到更多的管理費用在年底得到填補，對嗎？因此，您要為基於佣金的、基於公式的機構人員填充整個模型中的資金，而剩餘資金的很大一部分將用於填補該池中的管理資金。從歷史上看，這只是年度後端負載，而這正是該部分所反映的。

So Jim is saying that our senior bonuses finally got funded. (multiple speakers) I asked the same question myself. Okay. So -- but look, I think it's -- we had forecast, I thought we signaled that we'd be at 58%. And so it's hard to look at that linear. I appreciate the question.

所以吉姆說我們的高級獎金終於得到了資助。（多位發言者）我自己也問過同樣的問題。好的。所以 — — 但看，我認為 — — 我們已經預測過了，我認為我們暗示我們將達到 58%。因此，很難以線性方式看待這個問題。我很感謝你提出這個問題。

I think you pointed something out, but it is -- it's kind of normal. Historically though, we have seen a little more comp leverage in the fourth quarter. That's a fair question. I wouldn't try to discern any future trend into that.

我認為你指出了一些問題，但這很正常。不過，從歷史上看，我們在第四季看到了略高的競爭槓桿。這是一個合理的問題。我不會試圖從中辨別任何未來的趨勢。

Fair enough and cheers on that accrual. Okay.

足夠公平，並為這一累積而歡呼。好的。

I thought -- I was saying to Jim, what if we had a bad December and he kind of frowned at me. So I'm not sure what he was saying. Okay. But fair enough.

我想──我對吉姆說，如果我們度過了一個糟糕的十二月，而他卻對我皺起眉頭，那該怎麼辦呢？所以我不確定他在說什麼。好的。但夠公平。

Great. For my second, I'd love to ask a little about institutional. So one of the things, number one, your fourth quarter advisory was just a lot stronger than the public data normally suggests. So was there a lot more private or smaller deals represented in the advisory this quarter and do you think that's going to continue based upon the pipeline that you have today? And we've also heard some concerns from investors about recent poor performance of IPOs, a couple of them have broken price. What do you think the implications of that could be? I think that it might be.

偉大的。第二個問題，我想問一些關於機構的問題。因此，第一點是，你們第四季的預測比公開數據通常顯示的要強勁得多。那麼，本季的顧問報告中是否包含更多私人交易或小型交易？我們也聽到一些投資人對於近期 IPO 表現不佳的擔憂，其中一些公司的股價已經突破。您認為這可能產生什麼影響？我認為有可能。

I think, well, first of all, I think I always try to not only track our -- see the correlation between our reported results or what I see coming in and what gets reported as activity. And in times for us, we do -- we're more middle market and I just don't feel that those services that you're relying on to try to generate will tend to undershoot our actual performance in good times.

我認為，首先，我認為我總是試圖不僅追蹤我們的——查看我們報告的結果或我看到的內容與報告的活動之間的相關性。對我們來說，我們確實更屬於中端市場，我只是不覺得您所依賴的那些服務在經濟繁榮時期會低於我們的實際表現。

We're just doing a lot of transactions, some of them don't get picked up. I'm not sure I know the answer to that, but that's -- that doesn't surprise me because I do the same thing. I'm trying to understand and I'm trying to understand the market and I look at reported results and I say, where do these numbers come from? So I'm not sure if that answers your question, but I don't see a lot of correlation. Again, the tenth --

我們正在進行大量的交易，其中一些沒有被採納。我不確定我知道答案，但這並不讓我感到驚訝，因為我也做同樣的事情。我試著去理解，我試著去理解市場，我看著報告的結果，我說，這些數字是從哪裡來的？所以我不確定這是否回答了你的問題，但我沒有看到太多的關聯。再一次，第十--

It's under the radar, right? Like, just -- got it. Fair enough.

它沒有被發現，對吧？就像，剛剛--得到它了。很公平。

We also do more private deals, which tend not to get picked up.

我們也進行過更多私人交易，但這些交易往往不會被採納。

Yeah, that's what I meant by that. So that makes a lot of sense. There has been -- any thoughts on implications of the broken IPOs?

是的，我就是這個意思。這很有道理。有沒有什麼想法，關於 IPO 失敗的影響？

In the what?

在什麼？

The IPOs that have broken price recently and whether or not that might have an impact.

最近股價暴跌的 IPO 是否會產生影響。

Well, it's on balance, it's not relatively positive. I think it's the -- there's a lot of things that some errors may be being taken out of some of the valuations here and I think it's a natural progression. It can be healthy, it's price discovery. You'd rather see positive performance. But the fact remains that there is a tremendous amount of business that has to be done in the private equity side and a lot of capital that needs to be raised into an environment that's encouraging capital raising and M&A.

嗯，總的來說，這不是相對積極的。我認為這是——這裡的許多事情可能會從一些估值中消除一些錯誤，我認為這是自然的進展。它可以是健康的，它是價格發現。您更希望看到正面的表現。但事實上，私募股權方面有大量業務要做，需要籌集大量資金才能形成一個鼓勵融資和併購的環境。

So I view it as something that we need to keep an eye on, but I do not sit here with any particular concern about a few deals that are broken price. I don't -- maybe I should but I don't.

因此我認為這是我們需要關注的事情，但我並不特別擔心幾筆破價的交易。我沒有——也許我應該這樣做，但我沒有。

And it could make M&A a more viable option if it's a sponsor looking to sell versus the public--?

如果贊助商希望出售而非公開出售，這是否會使併購成為更可行的選擇？

Yeah. Well, I hope not though I want for -- I want the overall -- the entire process of being able to raise capital for young companies to grow into big companies and investors to participate in the IPO market. I think at the highest level for the United States and our government and our capital markets that issue has to be dealt with. I'm [not sure] now, but I want to see that.

是的。嗯，我希望不是，但我希望——我希望整個過程能夠籌集資金，讓年輕公司成長為大公司，讓投資者參與 IPO 市場。我認為，美國政府和資本市場的最高層級都必須解決這個問題。我現在[不確定]，但我想看到這一點。

Michael Cho, JP Morgan.

摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 的 Michael Cho。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question and squeezing me in here. Yeah, I just wanted to touch on advisory code activity, just to follow up. But I think you referenced MD count of 212, excluding Bryan Garnier. I think that's just a little bit down from what you disclosed prior. So I think anything to call out in terms of what areas might have saw some change there.

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題並給我時間來到這裡。是的，我只是想談談諮詢代碼活動，只是為了跟進。但我認為您引用的 MD 數量是 212，不包括 Bryan Garnier。我認為這比你之前披露的要低一點。因此我認為應該指出哪些地區可能已經發生了一些變化。

And then when we think about improvement in MD productivity into '25, I think you called out 21 M&A levels or M&A levels reaching 21. Like is that the benchmark at this point when we think about MD productivity into 25?

然後，當我們考慮將 MD 生產力提高到 25 歲時，我認為您提到了 21 個 M&A 水平或 M&A 水平達到 21。當我們考慮將 MD 生產力提高到 25 時，這就是基準嗎？

I think it's fair. I think part of it counts of us managing productivity levels frankly without getting too specific, but I think the second part of your question contain the answer in it. Okay.

我認為這是公平的。我認為其中一部分取決於我們管理生產力水平，坦白說，不必太具體，但我認為你問題的第二部分包含了答案。好的。

Fair enough. And then -- yeah, no, it does. And then just in terms of recruiting -- and you cited strong pipeline again. You gave us kind of a relative comparison when we talk about -- think about the banking pipeline. But is there some relative metric that you can help us with when we think about the recruiting pipeline that you're seeing today maybe versus where you are at the start of 24? And how would you envision the recruiting packages to evolve with markets continuing to reach higher levels and then potentially higher for longer rate environment as well?

很公平。然後——是的，不，確實如此。然後就招聘而言 - 您再次提到了強大的人才儲備。當我們談論—考慮銀行管道時，您給了我們相對的比較。但是，當我們考慮您今天看到的招募管道與您在 24 歲時的情況相比時，您是否可以幫助我們提供一些相對指標？隨著市場繼續達到更高的水平，長期利率環境也可能進一步走高，您認為招募方案將如何發展？

Yeah, look, I think I would characterize -- over time, okay, I feel that that the competitive landscape right now is very competitive, meaning things are very high. We look at almost every recruiting situation as what is our return on investment -- how does it impact our return on invested capital so that we're very disciplined on that?

是的，看，我想我會描述 - 隨著時間的推移，好吧，我覺得現在的競爭格局非常激烈，這意味著事情非常激烈。我們將幾乎每個招募情況都視為我們的投資回報——它對我們的投資資本回報有何影響，以便我們對此非常嚴謹？

And at times where people get really competitive, we may lose the marginal deal because ultimately, we don't want to dilute our return on tangible equity by -- at the alter of just having revenue growth on these. These are like CapEx, so you're putting fixed costs down and I don't like putting into some Excel spreadsheet perennial 20% increases in the market. That just ain't going to happen. So we look at it over time and I would say today, if there's sort of a governor, it's a very competitive environment right now. And we tend to not adjust our base, if you will, transition deals much with markets. So if markets moderate or maybe have a little bit of a pullback, we tend to overperform in terms of record.

當人們的競爭變得非常激烈時，我們可能會失去邊際交易，因為最終我們不想透過僅僅實現收入成長來稀釋我們的有形資產回報率。這些就像資本支出，所以你要把固定成本降低，而且我不喜歡把市場上每年 20% 的成長率放進 Excel 試算表中。這是不會發生的。所以我們從時間角度來看，我想說，今天如果有一位州長，那麼現在的環境競爭非常激烈。如果你願意的話，我們傾向於不調整我們的基礎，轉型與市場有很大關係。因此，如果市場溫和或可能出現小幅回調，我們往往在記錄方面表現出色。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. Mr. Kruszewski, I will turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。克魯舍夫斯基先生，我將把會議交還給您，請您作結束語。

Well, I want to compliment all of the analysts, and all of the questions were very thorough and long and we might have -- no, I mean good. Okay. And we -- I don't think we've ever exceeded an hour on this call. We just did.

好吧，我想讚揚所有的分析師，所有的問題都非常透徹和冗長，我們可能——不，我的意思是很好。好的。而且我們 — — 我認為我們這次通話的時間從未超過一個小時。我們剛剛這麼做了。

But I appreciate. I appreciate the interest. I feel that I'm looking forward to the next few calls and then into 2025 and maybe even 2026. We have a good environment and we have the -- we, as do all my competitive peers, we sit at the fulcrum between people that have savings and people that need capital and the investment environment and the corporate activity and M&A and capital raising environment are all going to improve and we intend to get not only our fair market share, but we intend to increase our market share. And with that, I look forward to reporting to you next quarter. Thank you everyone for your time and attention.

但我很感激。我很感激您的關注。我期待著接下來的幾次通話，然後進入 2025 年，甚至 2026 年。我們擁有良好的環境，我們和所有競爭對手一樣，處於有儲蓄的人和需要資本的人之間的支點，投資環境、企業活動、併購和融資環境都一切都會改善，我們不僅打算獲得公平的市場份額，而且打算增加我們的市場份額。因此，我期待下個季度向您報告。感謝大家的時間和關注。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。