Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Smith Douglas Homes fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Thomas, Senior Vice President of Accounting and Finance. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Smith Douglas Homes 2025 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給會計和財務高級副總裁喬·托馬斯。請繼續。

Good morning and welcome to the earnings conference call for Smith Douglas Homes. We issued a press release this morning outlining our results for the fourth quarter of 2024, which we will discuss on today's call and which can be found on our website at investors.smithdouglas.com or by selecting the investor relations link at the bottom of our homepage. Please note this call will be simultaneously webcast on the investor relations section of our website.

早安，歡迎參加 Smith Douglas Homes 的收益電話會議。我們今天早上發布了一份新聞稿，概述了我們 2024 年第四季度的業績，我們將在今天的電話會議上討論該業績，您可以在我們的網站 investors.smithdouglas.com 上找到該業績，也可以透過選擇我們主頁底部的投資者關係連結找到該業績。請注意，本次電話會議將在我們網站的投資者關係部分同時進行網路直播。

Before the call begins, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made on this call, which are not historical facts, including statements concerning future financial and operating goals, outlook, performance, and ability to gain market share, including in uncertain environments are forward-looking statements.

在電話會議開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述並非歷史事實，包括有關未來財務和營運目標、前景、業績和獲得市場份額的能力（包括在不確定的環境下）的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from such statements due to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other important factors as detailed in the company's SEC filings. Except as required by law, the company undertakes no duty to update these forward-looking statements. Additionally, reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this call to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found in our press release located on our website and in our SEC filings. Hosting the call this morning are Greg Bennett, the company's CEO and Vice Chairman; and Russ Devendorf, our Executive Vice President and CFO. I'd now like to turn the call over to Greg.

由於已知和未知的風險、不確定性以及公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細說明的其他重要因素，實際結果可能與此類聲明有重大差異。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。此外，本次電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在我們網站上的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中找到。今天早上的電話會議主持人是該公司執行長兼副董事長 Greg Bennett；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Russ Devendorf。現在我想把電話轉給格雷格。

Thanks, Joe. Good morning to everyone joining us on today's call as we go over results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and provide some insight into the state of our home building operations for the first few months of 2025.

謝謝，喬。大家早安，今天參加電話會議，我們將回顧 2024 年第四季的業績，並對 2025 年前幾個月的房屋建築業務狀況進行一些分析。

Smith Douglas Homes reported pre-tax income of $30 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, capping off a very profitable year for a company in which we generated nearly $117 million in pre-tax income.

Smith Douglas Homes 報告稱，2024 年第四季的稅前收入為 3,000 萬美元，對於一家創造了近 1.17 億美元稅前收入的公司來說，這是一個非常有利可圖的一年。

The 836 homes were delivered in the quarter were well above our stated guidance range and represented a quarterly record for our company. For the full year, Smith Douglas delivered 2,867 homes.

本季交付的 836 套房屋遠高於我們規定的指導範圍，創下了我們公司的季度紀錄。史密斯道格拉斯全年交付了 2,867 套住宅。

Our gross margins for the quarter came in as expected at 25.5%, which was the midpoint of our guidance. For the full year, gross margins on home closings averaged 26.2%. The combination of strong delivery growth, healthy margins, and quick inventory turns resulted in an adjusted return on equity of 29% for 2024, well above the industry average for publicly traded home builders. Overall, we're extremely pleased with our performance in 2024 and look forward to building on successes we've achieved during the year.

本季我們的毛利率達到預期的 25.5%，這是我們預期的中間值。全年房屋交易毛利率平均為 26.2%。強勁的交付成長、健康的利潤率和快速的庫存週轉率相結合，使得 2024 年的調整後股本回報率達到 29%，遠高於上市房屋建築商的行業平均水平。總體而言，我們對 2024 年的表現非常滿意，並期待在這一年取得的成功的基礎上再接再厲。

Here in the fourth quarter, we generated 569 net new orders. Some of the last quarter, price incentives and closing cost support were an important sales tool to all our communities. While this has been an effective way to address affordability issues, it has had a negative impact on our margins.

第四季度，我們創造了 569 個淨新訂單。上個季度，價格激勵和成交成本支援是我們所有社區的重要銷售工具。雖然這是解決負擔能力問題的有效方法，但它對我們的利潤產生了負面影響。

We make further progress on improving the construction efficiency in the fourth quarter. Cycle times coming in approximately 55 working days, excluding our Houston division. Our trade partners and suppliers continue to buy in to the Rteam philosophy, which streamlines the construction process and provides a level of accountability that leads to better cycle times.

第四季我們在提高施工效率方面取得了進一步進展。週期時間約為 55 個工作天（不包括我們的休士頓分會）。我們的貿易夥伴和供應商繼續認同 Rteam 理念，該理念簡化了施工流程並提供了一定程度的責任制，從而縮短了週期。

The adoption of the Rteam system in Houston continues to progress. We expect to see real improvement to their operating efficiency in the coming quarters. Our ability to turn inventory quickly is a key component of our home building strategy, and we remain committed to making incremental improvements across our footprint.

休士頓對 Rteam 系統的採用正在繼續推進。我們預計未來幾季他們的營運效率將得到真正的提高。快速週轉庫存的能力是我們房屋建築策略的關鍵組成部分，我們將繼續致力於逐步改善我們的業務範圍。

We ended the year with 19,522 controlled lots. Of our unstarted controlled lots, 96% were controlled via auction agreement consistent with our asset light strategy. This land light model allows us to control a significant number of lots in a capital efficient manner while offloading much of our risk associated with owning the developing land.

截至今年年底，我們的受控地塊總數為 19,522 個。在我們尚未開工的受控地塊中，96%是透過拍賣協議進行控制的，這與我們的輕資產策略一致。這種輕型土地模式使我們能夠以資本高效的方式控制大量地塊，同時卸下與擁有開發土地相關的大部分風險。

As we look ahead to 2025 and move into the heart of the spring sailing season, there are microeconomic and political uncertainties, particularly around interest rates and tariffs that may cause potential headwinds for the business.

展望 2025 年，我們即將進入春季航行季節，但微觀經濟和政治方面仍存在不確定性，尤其是利率和關稅方面的不確定性，可能會給業務帶來潛在的阻力。

Anticipated relief and mortgage rates after the Fed started cutting in the back half of 2024 never materialized. And in fact, rates increased throughout the fourth quarter of 2024 and into January, where the average 30-year mortgage reached the peak of over 7%. As several of our peers have also reported, January sales started off a bit slow compared to their expectations before picking up through February and early March.

聯準會於 2024 年下半年開始降息後預期的救濟和抵押貸款利率並未實現。事實上，利率在 2024 年第四季至 1 月一直在上升，其中 30 年期抵押貸款平均利率達到了 7% 以上的峰值。正如我們的一些同行所報告的那樣，1 月份的銷售額一開始比他們的預期要慢一些，但在 2 月和 3 月初才有所回升。

Despite seeing some stabilization and inflation, affordability remains a significant challenge for our buyers. Additionally, the lock-in effect where homeowners are reluctant to sell due to their low mortgage rates is keeping housing inventories near historic lows and contributing to home prices remaining higher.

儘管出現了一些穩定和通貨膨脹，但負擔能力對我們的買家來說仍然是一個重大挑戰。此外，由於抵押貸款利率較低，房主不願出售房屋的鎖定效應導致房屋庫存保持在歷史低點附近，並導致房價保持在高位。

While there may be some near term headwinds and additional pressure on margins, longer term, we continue to remain optimistic about the outlook for our industry and especially Smith Douglas. We believe our manufacturing approach to home building, operational efficiency, and land light strategy will serve us well in any environment.

雖然短期內可能會遇到一些阻力，利潤率也面臨額外壓力，但從長遠來看，我們仍然對產業前景，尤其是史密斯道格拉斯的前景保持樂觀。我們相信，我們的房屋建築製造方法、營運效率和輕型土地策略將在任何環境下為我們提供良好的服務。

Our balance sheet remains in excellent shape. We have a real opportunity to gain market share as we expand our operations throughout the Southeast. Before I turn the call over to Russ, I want to thank all of our team members for their contributions to a remarkable year for our company.

我們的資產負債表依然保持良好狀態。隨著我們在東南部地區拓展業務，我們有真正的機會獲得市場份額。在將電話轉給 Russ 之前，我想感謝我們團隊的所有成員為公司這一非凡的一年所做的貢獻。

Smith Douglas has come a long way since we started operating out of Atlanta 17 years ago. A significant expansion throughout the Southeast and Texas over the years, and our highly successful IPO last year is all due to the hard work and commitment. With more than 450 team members, we truly appreciate all of you. And now I turned over to Russ.

自 17 年前開始在亞特蘭大開展業務以來，史密斯道格拉斯公司已經取得了長足的進步。多年來，我們在東南部和德克薩斯州的大規模擴張以及去年我們非常成功的首次公開募股都歸功於我們的辛勤工作和承諾。我們團隊有 450 多名成員，我們衷心感謝你們所有人。現在我把麥克風交給拉斯。

Thanks, Greg. I'm going to highlight some of our results for the fourth quarter and full year and then conclude my remarks with our outlook for the first quarter.

謝謝，格雷格。我將重點介紹我們第四季和全年的一些業績，然後以我們對第一季的展望結束我的演講。

We finished the fourth quarter with $287 million of revenue, a 32% increase over the year ago period. On 836 closings for an average sales price on closed homes of $344,000. Our gross margin was 25.5% and SG&A expense was 14.9% of revenue. Pre-tax income was $30 million with net income of $28.8 million for the quarter.

第四季我們的營收為 2.87 億美元，比去年同期成長 32%。已成交 836 間房子，平均售價為 344,000 美元。我們的毛利率為 25.5%，銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的 14.9%。本季稅前收入為 3000 萬美元，淨收入為 2880 萬美元。

Given the nature of our UPSEA organizational structure, our reported net income reflects an effective tax rate of 4.2% on the face of our income statement. This income tax expense is primarily attributable to income related to the approximate 17.3% economic ownership of our public shareholders that is held by Smith Douglas Homes Corp and Smith Douglas Holdings LLC.

鑑於我們的 UPSEA 組織結構的性質，我們報告的淨收入反映了損益表上的 4.2% 的有效稅率。此所得稅費用主要歸因於與我們的公眾股東（由 Smith Douglas Homes Corp 和 Smith Douglas Holdings LLC 持有的約 17.3% 經濟所有權相關的收入。

Our adjusted net income, which is a non-GAAP measure that we believe is useful in providing a comparison to more traditional C corporations is $22.6 million for the quarter. Adjusted in net income assumes a 24.6% blended federal and state effective tax rate as if we had 100% public ownership operating as a subchapter C corporation.

我們的調整後淨收入為本季 2,260 萬美元，這是一項非 GAAP 指標，我們認為它有助於與更傳統的 C 類公司進行比較。調整後的淨收入假設聯邦和州的混合有效稅率為 24.6%，就好像我們擁有 100% 的公共所有權，作為 C 分章公司運作一樣。

We believe adjusted net income is a useful metric because it allows management and investors to evaluate our results more effectively to industry peers that may have a more traditional tax and organizational structure. You can find more information about our structure and income taxes in the footnotes of our financial statements.

我們認為調整後的淨收入是一個有用的指標，因為它可以讓管理階層和投資者更有效地評估我們的業績，而相較之下，同業可能擁有更傳統的稅收和組織結構。您可以在我們的財務報表的腳註中找到有關我們的結構和所得稅的更多資訊。

For the full year 2024, we closed a record 2,867 homes with corresponding revenue of $975 million a 25% and 28% increase respectively over the prior year. Our gross margin was 26.2% for the full year compared to 28.3% in 2023, primarily driven by an increase in our average lot cost, which was 24.4% of revenue versus 21.3% in 2023.

2024 年全年，我們創紀錄地售出了 2,867 套住房，相應收入達到 9.75 億美元，分別比上一年增長 25% 和 28%。我們的全年毛利率為 26.2%，而 2023 年為 28.3%，主要是由於我們的平均批量成本增加，佔收入的 24.4%，而 2023 年為 21.3%。

Discounts and closing costs were 3.6% compared to 3.4% last year. Our SG&A expense was just under 14% of revenue, including internal and external sales commissions, which were 4% of revenue compared to 3.6% in 2023.

折扣和成交成本為 3.6%，而去年為 3.4%。我們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 佔收入的略低於 14%，其中包括內部和外部銷售佣金，佔收入的 4%，而 2023 年為 3.6%。

Pre-tax income was $116.9 million with net income of $111.8 million for the year, and our adjusted net income, as previously described, was $88.1 million. We were operating out of 78 active selling communities at the end of the year versus 69 at the end of 2023. We finished the year with 694 homes in backlog with an average selling price of 340,000 and an expected gross margin on those homes of just under 24%.

全年稅前收入為 1.169 億美元，淨收入為 1.118 億美元，如前所述，我們的調整後淨收入為 8,810 萬美元。截至 2020 年底，我們擁有 78 個活躍銷售社區，而 2023 年底則為 69 個。今年，我們積壓了 694 間房屋，平均售價為 34 萬美元，預計這些房屋的毛利率略低於 24%。

Looking at our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with approximately $22 million of cash and no borrowings under our $250 million revolving credit facility and $402 million of total members and stockholders' equity.

從我們的資產負債表來看，本季末我們擁有約 2,200 萬美元的現金，在 2.5 億美元的循環信貸額度下沒有借款，會員和股東權益總額為 4.02 億美元。

Our debt-to-book capitalization was 0.8% and our net debt to net book capitalization was 5%. We had approximately$220 million available on our unsecured credit facility and are well positioned to execute on our growth strategy, as Greg previously mentioned.

我們的負債與帳面資本比率為 0.8%，淨負債與帳面資本比率為 5%。正如格雷格之前提到的，我們的無擔保信貸額度約為 2.2 億美元，並且已做好充分準備來執行我們的成長策略。

Before I speak to our guidance for the first quarter, I'll provide a little more color on what we are seeing through the first couple of months this year. As Greg mentioned, sales started a bit slow in January but picked up in February. Our sales pace per community trended higher at 2.4 and 3.3 sales in January and February, respectively, compared to 3.4 sales per community through the first two months of 2024.

在談到我們對第一季的預期之前，我將先稍微介紹一下今年頭幾個月的情況。正如格雷格所提到的，一月份的銷售情況一開始有點慢，但二月有所回升。1 月和 2 月每個社區的銷售速度呈上升趨勢，分別為 2.4 套和 3.3 套，而 2024 年前兩個月每個社區的銷售速度為 3.4 套。

Additionally, we have seen an increase in the closing costs and incentives we offer versus this time last year to the tune of about 75 basis points on a relatively flat average sales price. That said, for the first quarter of 2025, we currently anticipate home closings to finish between 625 and 675 homes, an approximate 15% increase over 2024 at the midpoint, with an average sales price between 330,000 and 335,000, and gross margin in the range of 23.25% and 23.75%.

此外，與去年同期相比，我們在平均銷售價格相對穩定的情況下，提供的成交成本和獎勵增加了約 75 個基點。也就是說，對於 2025 年第一季度，我們目前預計房屋成交量將在 625 至 675 套之間，比 2024 年中位數增加約 15%，平均銷售價格在 330,000 至 335,000 之間，毛利率在 23.25% 至 23.75% 之間。

For the full year, we expect closings to be between 3,000 and 3,200 homes, which is in the range we previously stated on our last call. We believe the primary risks to our projections are around our ability to maintain sales space and bring our new communities and lots online. Macroeconomic factors and uncertainty around jobs, tariffs, inflation, and interest rates could also have unforeseen impacts to our numbers. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for instructions on Q&A.

我們預計全年成交量將在 3,000 至 3,200 套之間，這與我們在上次電話會議上提出的範圍一致。我們認為，我們預測面臨的主要風險在於我們維持銷售空間以及將新社區和地段上線的能力。宏觀經濟因素以及就業、關稅、通貨膨脹和利率的不確定性也可能對我們的數據產生不可預見的影響。說到這裡，我想把電話轉給接線生，以獲得問答的指示。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）Michael Rehaut，摩根大通。

Hi everyone, this is Andrew Ozzie on for Mike. Thank you for taking the questions. Just maybe I appreciate that guidance. I just wanted to maybe dial into the -- I believe I heard you say the backlog gross margins are to the tune of 24%, and 1Q is a little bit below that. Could we -- what if you could bucket out some of the, dynamics there that would be very helpful.

大家好，我是 Andrew Ozzie，代表 Mike 發言。感謝您回答這些問題。也許我很感激你的指導。我只是想撥通一下——我相信我聽到您說積壓訂單的毛利率為 24%，而第一季的毛利率略低於這個數字。我們可以嗎——如果您可以把其中的一些動態匯總起來，那將會非常有幫助。

Yeah. So backlog margin you heard correctly it’s about 24%. A lot of that is obviously sales that were made in Q4. And so Q4 was definitely -- we saw more incentives pick up where Greg had mentioned. It’s an affordability thing.

是的。因此，您沒聽錯，積壓訂單利潤率約為 24%。其中很多顯然是第四季的銷售額。因此，第四季度肯定是——我們看到了 Greg 提到的更多激勵措施的出現。這是與可負擔性有關的事。

Interest rates, really even with the Fed cutting kind of moved against us. And so we were taking more incentives to try and keep pace. So that’s reflective in backlog. When I look out actually a little bit further beyond what we’re seeing for what’s closing in the first couple of months in terms of our backlog, it looks like it’s creeping up a little bit. So you’re actually seeing it trend a little bit up when I look at kind of our backlog aging through kind of midyear.

即使聯準會降息，利率實際上對我們不利。因此，我們採取了更多的激勵措施來努力跟上腳步。所以這反映在積壓訂單上。當我實際上進一步觀察我們在頭幾個月完成的積壓訂單情況時，我發現它似乎在一點點增加。因此，當我查看我們年中積壓訂單的老化情況時，你實際上會看到它呈現略微上升的趨勢。

So we’re hopeful again sales have picked up in February, but look incentives are still being used to drive volume. So it’s tough. That’s where we see the biggest risk, right? This year is going to be mostly in margin. People are showing up into the sales centers. There’s definitely demand, but it’s an affordability game.

因此，我們對 2 月份的銷量回升充滿希望，但仍需透過激勵措施來推動銷量。所以這很難。我們認為最大的風險就在這裡，對嗎？今年大部分時間都是在保證金方面。人們紛紛湧入銷售中心。肯定有需求，但這是一場可負擔的遊戲。

Thanks, Ross. And then maybe secondly, on the land side, is there some way to -- some framework for kind of lock cost inflation for you guys that you are thinking of currently, that would be very helpful.

謝謝，羅斯。其次，在土地方面，你們目前正在考慮某種方法可以鎖定成本通膨的框架，這將非常有幫助。

Yeah, that’s really outside of incentives, right? And because we’re seeing kind of flat ASP year over year, so you’ve got incentives that are impacting margins. It’s lot cost, right? And we’ve talked about that in the past. I’d say it’s -- it could be 200 to 300 basis points of margin is eroding because of our lot cost rolling through there.

是的，這確實超出了激勵範圍，對嗎？而且由於我們看到平均售價與去年同期持平，因此存在影響利潤率的激勵措施。花費不少，對吧？我們過去也討論過這個問題。我想說的是——由於我們的地塊成本不斷增加，利潤率可能會下降 200 到 300 個基點。

So land is still challenging. It’s competitive. And that’s where we see the biggest challenge. Our vertical costs have actually been in check, but now with kind of what we’re seeing with tariffs and the new administration and a lot of uncertainty, we are seeing some of our subcontractors reach out and look at surcharges or possible increases. But there’s still a lot of uncertainty. We don’t have a real clear picture yet on how that might impact us the rest of the year.

因此土地依然是個挑戰。競爭非常激烈。而這正是我們所面臨的最大挑戰。我們的垂直成本實際上已經得到控制，但是現在我們看到關稅和新政府以及很多不確定性，我們看到一些分包商伸出援手並考慮附加費或可能的增加。但仍存在許多不確定性。我們還不清楚這會對我們今年剩餘時間產生什麼影響。

Thank you, Russ. I'll pass it on.

謝謝你，拉斯。我會傳達的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Awesome, thanks. I actually wanted to piggyback off that last question just to comment on lot cost eroding, 200 to 300 basis points of margin. I mean, is that mostly just waited to 2025 or is there a risk that that erosion kind of persists into 2026 and beyond? Just looking for some context there, given the visibility you have in your out your lot pipeline.

太棒了，謝謝。我實際上想利用最後一個問題來評論批次成本的侵蝕，即 200 到 300 個基點的利潤率。我的意思是，這主要是等到 2025 年，還是這種侵蝕現象可能會持續到 2026 年甚至更久？鑑於您在您的批次管道中所具有的可見性，只是想尋找一些背景資訊。

Yeah. I don’t see it -- I see it kind of leveling off based on where our lot costs are. But certainly as we’ve been buying and contracting land over the last couple of years, It’s certainly increased. But I do think it’s leveled off a bit when you -- if you kind of think about ’26 and beyond.

是的。我沒有看到這一點——我認為根據我們的地塊成本，它會趨於平穩。但可以肯定的是，由於過去幾年我們一直在購買和承包土地，這一數字肯定有所增加。但我確實認為，如果你想想 26 年及以後，這種情況會趨於平穩。

But, yeah, we really haven’t -- we haven’t taken a deep dive into it. But just sitting here today, I’d say you’re not going to see the kind of inflation that you’re seeing in the lot costs now. I mean, it’s been -- it’s taken a pretty big bump, and I think you kind of see that leveling off a bit as you look towards the outer years.

但是，是的，我們確實沒有——我們還沒有深入研究過這個問題。但就今天坐在這裡，我想說，你不會看到現在的那種成本通貨膨脹。我的意思是，它已經——經歷了相當大的波動，而且我認為當你展望未來幾年時，你會看到它有所趨於平穩。

Awesome. Thanks, Russ. And then one follow-up, just wanted to touch on community count growth and cadence throughout the year. I know obviously there’s a lot of moving pieces when it comes to community count. But can you just give us some guideposts in terms of how we should think about modeling that over the course of 2025? Obviously, it does have implications on start pay or pays, etc.

驚人的。謝謝，拉斯。然後是後續問題，只是想談談全年社區數量的成長和節奏。我知道，在社區數量方面顯然有很多變動因素。但是您能否為我們提供一些指導，告訴我們應該如何考慮在 2025 年期間進行建模？顯然，它確實對起薪或薪酬等有影響。

Yes. It should be pretty ratable increase throughout the year, and we were just looking at that last week. We can see community count growing low single digits towards kind of 90 by the end of the year, up from what were 78. So, I’d say it’s going to be kind of a ratable increase throughout the year.

是的。全年應該會有相當可觀的成長，我們上週才剛看到這一點。我們可以看到，到今年年底，社區數量將以個位數增長，達到 90 個左右，而之前的數量是 78 個。所以，我認為全年都會出現一個可觀的成長。

That’s helpful, Russ. I’ll pass it on. Thanks.

這很有幫助，拉斯。我會傳達它。謝謝。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to follow-up on gross margin. Previously, you had talked about 2025, perhaps being in the 25% range, give or take. Starting below that here in the first quarter, you’ve got some land inflation that will likely continue to work through in 2025.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想跟進毛利率。之前，您曾談到 2025 年，大概在 25​​% 左右。從第一季開始，土地價格就會出現一定程度的通膨，這種現像很可能會在 2025 年繼續存在。

Can you talk about what the biggest difference is now versus maybe a quarter ago when you were talking about 2025 gross margin perhaps being in that 25% range?

您能否談談現在與一個季度前相比最大的差異是什麼？當時您談到 2025 年的毛利率可能在 25% 左右？

Yeah. It’s really -- it’s the market I think when we had our call looking at where we saw. Rates had started coming down. The Fed was cutting. And then Q4, you saw rates start to increase. And so we’ve definitely had a -- we had a bigger use of incentives in Q4 and certainly at the beginning of this year.

是的。這確實是——我認為當我們打電話時，市場正在觀察我們所看到的情況。利率已開始下降。聯準會正在降息。然後到了第四季度，你會看到利率開始上升。因此，我們在第四季度以及今年年初肯定更多地使用了激勵措施。

Rates peaked. The average 30-year peak in January is starting to come down a little bit. But when you look year over year, I think the rates are almost flat. And so that’s really had an impact for sure on where we see margins going.

利率達到高峰。1 月 30 年來的平均高峰開始略有下降。但當你回顧去年同期時，我認為利率幾乎持平。所以這確實對利潤率的走向產生了影響。

And as you know, our business model, we’re very focused on kind of manufacturing. It’s a pace over price game. And so to steal a line from Lennar, that is that’s kind of our buffer in terms of getting the pace at that gross margin. And so we’ve had to use more incentives to push pace.

如您所知，我們的商業模式非常注重製造業。這是一場速度高於價格的遊戲。因此，借用 Lennar 的話來說，這就是我們在達到該毛利率水準方面的緩衝。因此我們必須採取更多激勵措施來加快步伐。

Yeah, that makes sense. : And then second question on SG&A, closings were really good in the quarter, but SG&A still kind of came in towards the top higher end of your range. How are you thinking about leverage on SG and A as we move into 2025? I appreciate that you guys have spent a lot on growth already. How do you think about levering that?

是的，這很有道理。 ：第二個問題是關於銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的，本季度的收盤業績非常好，但銷售、一般及行政費用仍然處於您預期範圍的高端。當我們邁入 2025 年時，您如何看待 SG 和 A 的槓桿作用？我很感激你們已經為成長投入了很多。您認為該如何利用這一點？

Yeah. SG&A was elevated in Q4. We actually -- so we over closed from our guidance and then we hit a lot of our operational metrics that bonuses are based on. And so we probably had over 100 basis points of SG&A, just an additional bonus accrual that if we knew we were going to hit the numbers like we did for the year, would have been accrued more evenly throughout the year.

是的。第四季銷售、一般及行政開支增加。實際上，我們超出了我們的預期，然後我們達到了許多獎金所基於的營運指標。因此，我們的銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 可能有超過 100 個基點，這只是額外的獎金應計項目，如果我們知道我們將達到今年的數字，那麼全年的累積就會更加均勻。

So we -- probably that 14.9% would have been probably just south of 14% if we had taken those accruals throughout the year. So that was a big part of it. But yeah, we would expect ourselves to get some good SG&A leverage as we continue to grow the top line.

因此，如果我們全年都採用這些應計項目，那麼 14.9% 的利率可能會略低於 14%。這是其中很重要的一部分。但是的，隨著我們繼續增加營業收入，我們預計自己將獲得一些良好的銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿。

We’ve got the team in place from a back-office perspective. We’ve got we’re pretty set from that standpoint as a public company. So we would expect that SG&A number to continue to trend down below 14%. Our goal would be, certainly, to improve that year over year.

從後台角度來看，我們已經組建了一個團隊。從這個角度來看，作為一家上市公司，我們已經做好了充分的準備。因此，我們預計銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 比率將繼續下降至 14% 以下。我們的目標當然是逐年提升。

Thank you for all the color and good luck moving forward.

感謝您帶來的所有色彩並祝您未來一切順利。

Sure.

當然。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

Hey, guys. Good morning. You’ve actually got Steven Ma on for Mike this morning. I wanted to ask about the market assumptions and kind of the outlook you have embedded within the full-year guide and whether or not you have any improvement baked in there? Or if it’s kind of flashing here, just kind of your thoughts on how you think about that in making the outlook? Thanks.

嘿，大家好。早安.今天早上你實際上已經讓馬曉軼事代替麥克了。我想問您在全年指南中嵌入的市場假設和展望，以及其中是否有任何改進？或者如果它在這裡閃爍，您如何看待它並做出展望？謝謝。

Yeah. We’ve got the communities in place to hit our 3,000 to 3,200 guide on closings. So a lot of it’s going to depend. Again, February picked up from a sales pace perspective. We’re seeing March has been pretty consistent with February.

是的。我們已經讓各個社區達到了 3,000 至 3,200 個關閉目標。所以這很大程度取決於。從銷售速度的角度來看，二月的銷售速度再次回升。我們發現三月的情況與二月相當一致。

But look, there’s definitely still a lot of uncertainty going into the balance of the year. But most of that we feel is around margins. We definitely think -- people are showing up to the sales centers. Traffic has been pretty good. So it really for us, I think it’s just a matter of finding that right price, right?

但看看吧，今年餘下的時間肯定仍然存在著許多不確定性。但我們認為，其中大部分都與利潤有關。我們確實認為——人們正在湧向銷售中心。交通狀況相當良好。所以對我們來說，我認為這只是找到合適價格的問題，對嗎？

It’s an affordability game as I’ve mentioned. So it’s -- the biggest risk is certainly on the margin side. I think we can get volume, but the big question is at what margin, what price is it going to come. And that remains to be seen. So still there’s a lot -- like I just mentioned before, there’s a lot relative to vertical construction costs because of what’s happening with tariffs and how that’s going to impact us.

正如我所提到的，這是一場可負擔的遊戲。所以，最大的風險一定是在保證金方面。我認為我們可以獲得產量，但最大的問題是利潤率是多少，價格是多少。這還有待觀察。所以仍然有很多——就像我之前提到的，由於關稅的變化以及這將如何影響我們，有很多與垂直建設成本相關的因素。

And so that is just a lot of uncertainty there. But we feel -- sitting here today, we feel pretty good about getting volume. Again, barring some sort of major recession or a big shift in employment. I’ve always said, we can kind of cure a payment for folks, and so that impacts margin. But if people start losing jobs, that’s the part we can’t fix.

因此，那裡存在著許多不確定性。但我們感覺——今天坐在這裡，我們對獲得的數量感到非常滿意。再說一遍，除非出現嚴重的經濟衰退或就業狀況發生重大轉變。我一直說，我們可以為人們解決付款問題，這會影響利潤。但如果人們開始失業，那就是我們無法解決的問題了。

No, it’s super helpful. Thanks for all the color there. And then I guess one more kind of piggybacking off the previous tariff questions and margin questions. I think Trevor had said, the first quarter margin kind of coming in a little lower mainly as given the market weaknesses.

不，它非常有用。感謝那裡的所有色彩。然後我想這又是一種對之前的關稅問題和利潤問題的重複。我認為特雷弗曾說過，第一季的利潤率略有下降，主要是因為市場疲軟。

As you think about margin through the balance of the year, is there -- just for a higher level kind of given there’s so many moving pieces around tariffs, how are you kind of thinking about taking that into the guide?

當您考慮全年的利潤率時，是否存在更高層次的利潤率，考慮到關稅方面有如此多的變動因素，您如何考慮將其納入指南？

And if I could sneak an extra one in here, are you guys hearing anything on the ground given kind of the recent headlines on immigration and labor as well too? Thanks a lot, guys.

如果我可以在這裡偷偷問一句的話，你們是否也聽到了有關最近移民和勞工方面的消息？非常感謝大家。

Yeah. From a margin perspective, like I said earlier, we are seeing -- it’s interesting. Our backlog when I look at the aging, it looks like backlog margin is picking up. So I think, again, some of our early backlog that’s going to be closing this quarter is reflective of probably incentives and discounting we were given on inventory in Q4.

是的。從利潤率的角度來看，就像我之前說的，我們看到了——這很有趣。當我查看我們的積壓訂單時，我發現積壓訂單的利潤率正在上升。因此，我認為，我們本季將要結清的一些早期積壓訂單可能反映了我們在第四季度獲得的庫存激勵和折扣。

But look, it’s -- I’d be guessing if I told you which way margins are going to go from here. I think like I said that’s the biggest risk. But we are seeing kind of that low to mid margins right now on what we’re selling. But in order to keep pace, that’s just going to shift based on where the market goes and a lot of that’s interest rates and what happens just more macro level. And then from a tariff perspective, I don’t know, Greg, if you got some color on what we’re seeing from the subs.

但你看，如果我告訴你利潤率從現在開始會如何變化，那我只能猜測。我認為就像我說的，這是最大的風險。但我們現在看到，我們銷售的產品的利潤率處於較低到中等水平。但為了跟上步伐，這將根據市場走向、利率以及更宏觀層面的情況而改變。然後從關稅的角度來看，格雷格，我不知道你是否了解我們從潛艇上看到的情況。

Yeah. I’d say currently we’re not seeing any impact, but you know we don’t have our head in the sand either. We are following a list of items daily, weekly with all of our supply chain vendors and staying alert to those things. But really from immigration tariff, all those things, there’s -- as of today there’s not been any impact.

是的。我想說，目前我們還沒有看到任何影響，但你知道我們也沒有把頭埋在沙子裡。我們每天、每週都會與所有供應鏈供應商一起追蹤貨物清單，並對這些事項保持警惕。但實際上，從移民關稅等所有這些因素來看，截至今天還沒有任何影響。

Yes. And you want to touch on the cycle times have actually come down and it hasn’t been an issue?

是的。您想談談週期時間實際上已經縮短並且這不再是一個問題嗎？

Yeah. We were just visiting our earlier cycle times year over year. We’ve taken two weeks. So we ended '23 at 65. days. We’re into ’24 at around 55 days. So that helps to shrink backlog, but it also helps with the efficiency and cycle and all the things that we’re striving for here. So, in light of those things going on, we’re still seeing some operational efficiencies.

是的。我們只是逐年回顧我們早期的周期時間。我們花了兩週的時間。因此我們在 65 天後結束了 23 年的工作。我們進入 24 年後大約還有 55 天。這有助於減少積壓，同時也有助於提高效率和週期以及我們在這裡努力追求的所有目標。因此，鑑於這些事情的發生，我們仍然看到一些營運效率。

No, that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for all the color you guys. I'll pass it on.

不，這很有道理。謝謝你們帶來的所有色彩。我會傳達的。

(Operator Instructions) Jay McCandless, Wedbush.

（操作員指示）Jay McCandless，韋德布希。

Good morning, guys. I guess my first question, Russ, is what have you all been seeing to reduce the community count guide? I think you've given an initial fiscal '25 guide for 15%-plus and now you're saying low single digits. Maybe bridge that delta for us.

大家早安。我想我的第一個問題是，拉斯，你們都看到了什麼來減少社區計數指南？我認為您給出的 25 財年初始指導值為 15% 以上，但現在您說是低個位數。也許可以為我們彌補這一差距。

I think it's going to be low double digits. I think it's like a 12% because we were at 78 and we'll get close to 90. So 12 -- so it should be 12%. So we’ll get close. I mean some of that could just be timing. I mean, this was just kind of the numbers that we looked at, but just last week, some of that is just --

我認為這個數字將會是兩位數以下。我認為大概是 12%，因為我們之前是 78%，現在我們會接近 90。所以 12——應該是 12%。這樣我們就會接近。我的意思是其中一些可能只是時間問題。我的意思是，這只是我們看到的數字，但就在上週，其中一些只是--

We may get a couple of communities over. It’s just how quickly can we get lots. And I didn’t mention on our prepared remarks, but it’s definitely still challenging in some of our municipalities and just getting through approvals. So there’s always that risk, but I think we can get close to that 15% increase.

我們可能會獲得幾個社區的支持。問題只是我們能多快獲得大量數據。我在準備好的發言中沒有提到，但在我們的一些城市，獲得審批肯定仍然具有挑戰性。因此總是存在這種風險，但我認為我們可以接近 15% 的增幅。

And then that's actually -- my second question was going to be, what's the path for growth this year? Is it going to be mostly organic? Are you guys still evaluating some potential M&A?

那麼這其實是──我的第二個問題是，今年的成長路徑是什麼？它主要是有機的嗎？你們還在評估一些潛在的併購嗎？

Yeah, it’s all -- so all of our closing growth this year is I’d say organic. We are in Chattanooga. We did -- that’s being run out of our Atlanta operations. But we’ve got -- I think it’s close to about 1,000 lots under control in Chattanooga. So that’s a big part where we push pretty far north in Atlanta.

是的，所以我認為我們今年的所有收盤增長都是有機的。我們在查塔努加。我們確實這麼做了——這是我們在亞特蘭大的業務。但我認為我們已經控制了查塔努加大約 1,000 個停車場。所以這是我們在亞特蘭大向北推進的一個重要部分。

And then we did open Central Georgia. So that Middle Georgia, Central Georgia area might deliver about 100 closings. But again, that’s kind of just an extension of Atlanta growing so big that we’ve divisionalized that.

然後我們確實開放了中央喬治亞州。因此，喬治亞州中部地區可能會有大約 100 家門市關閉。但同樣，這只是亞特蘭大業務不斷擴張的一個延伸，因此我們將其劃分為多個部門。

As we mentioned before, we opened a division in Greenville. We won’t get any -- we don’t think we’re going to get any sales and closings this year, although our division president there is doing an excellent job of getting things going.

正如我們之前提到的，我們在格林維爾開設了一個分部。我們不會取得任何——我們認為今年我們不會取得任何銷售和成交，儘管我們那裡的部門總裁在推動事情發展方面做得非常出色。

We may have a small opportunity to do something. So everything is organic. We are definitely looking at opportunities. The M&A -- there’s still M&A going on. We’ve seen some deals happen in the industry.

我們可能有一點機會去做一些事情。所以一切都是有機的。我們確實在尋找機會。併購－併購仍在進行中。我們已經看到該行業發生了一些交易。

We’re seeing some packages. But as we’ve always said, we’ll be opportunistic. We’re looking at filling in some spots throughout the Southeast and expanding. But if we see something we like, we’ll look at it. But we’re certainly not going to overpay. We’re comfortable doing greenfield startups if we like the market, but nothing immediate.

我們看到了一些包裹。但正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們會抓住機會。我們正在考慮填補東南部的一些地區並進行擴張。但如果我們看到喜歡的東西，我們就會看它。但我們肯定不會支付過高的價格。如果我們喜歡這個市場，我們很樂意進行綠地創業，但不會立即採取行動。

Got it. And then the last one I had, just thinking about average closing price for '25. You initially or you said last quarter [$335,000 to $345,000], is that still a good range or how should we modeling that through the year?

知道了。然後我最後一個只是考慮 25 年的平均收盤價。您最初或您上個季度說的是 [335,000 美元到 345,000 美元]，這仍然是一個不錯的範圍嗎，或者我們應該如何在全年對其進行建模？

Yeah, I think that's still a good range. I think our backlog is right now at [$340,000]. And so some of the ASP for this first quarter. It's just really the way our backlog is falling out. And it's -- it could be mixed across different divisions. But yeah, I still think kind of that [$340,000] numbers is, as we sit here today is still pretty good.

是的，我認為這仍然是一個很好的範圍。我認為我們現在的積壓工作是[34萬美元]。這是第一季的一些平均售價。這實際上就是我們的積壓工作正在減少的方式。而且它可以在不同的部門之間混合使用。但是的，我仍然認為，就我們今天所處的位置而言，這個 [340,000 美元] 數字仍然相當不錯。

Okay, sounds great. Thank you.

好的，聽起來不錯。謝謝。

Sure, thanks.

當然，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

（操作員指示）住房研究中心亞歷克斯·巴倫。

Yeah, thank you. I was wondering, in terms of the incentives you guys are offering, are they mainly in the way of rate buy downs or in closing costs? Or are you guys starting to see the need to do price cuts?

是的，謝謝。我想知道，就你們提供的激勵措施而言，主要是以利率降低還是成交成本的方式？或者你們開始意識到降價的必要性了嗎？

It is primarily in closing costs, which also -- which include rate buy downs. And most of our buyers there is some level of rate buy down in there. We are discounting as well, so it's a mix. But I'd say it's more geared towards closing cost incentives.

這主要涉及成交成本，其中還包括利率降低。我們的大多數買家都在某種程度上降低了利率。我們也在打折，所以情況多種多樣。但我想說的是，它更傾向於降低成本。

And what about broker commissions? Are you guys, maintaining whatever your standard rate is or are you having to feel the need to add bonuses or something like that

那麼經紀人佣金又如何呢？你們是否維持標準工資率，或者是否覺得有必要增加獎金或類似的東西

No, it's the same as what we've been doing in the past. We haven't changed. So we're still offering incentives but nothing out of the ordinary.

不，這和我們過去所做的一樣。我們沒有改變。因此我們仍然提供激勵措施，但並沒有什麼特別的。

And that will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call back over to Greg Bennett for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我會把電話轉回給 Greg Bennett 來做最後一次演講。

Thank you everyone for joining us today. As always, we're accessible. Give us a call and look forward to chatting again next quarter.

感謝大家今天的參與。像往常一樣，我們可以聯繫。打電話給我們並期待下個季度再次聊天。

This concludes today's meeting. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。