Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Shoe Carnival's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's conference call is being recorded and is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this call is expressly prohibited.

早安，歡迎參加 Shoe Carnival 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，也將透過網路直播進行播出。明確禁止複製或重播本次通話的任何部分。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Steve Alexander with Shoe Carnival Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹 Shoe Carnival 投資者關係部門的史蒂夫亞歷山大先生。

Thank you, and good morning. Thanks for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings press release for the third quarter of 2024. If you need a copy of the release, it is available on our website in the Investors section.

謝謝，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2024 年第三季的收益新聞稿。

Joining me on today's call are Mark Worden, President and Chief Executive Officer of Shoe Carnival; Carl Scibetta, Chief Merchandising Officer; and Patrick Edwards, Chief Financial Officer. Management's remarks today may contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risk factors. These risk factors could cause the company's actual results to be materially different from those projected in such statements. Forward-looking statements should also be considered in conjunction with the discussion of risk factors included in the company's SEC filings and today's earnings press release.

參加今天電話會議的還有 Shoe Carnival 總裁兼執行長 Mark Worden；卡爾‧西貝塔 (Carl Scibetta)，首席行銷長；以及財務長派崔克·愛德華茲（Patrick Edwards）。管理階層今天的言論可能包含涉及許多風險因素的前瞻性陳述。這些風險因素可能導致公司的實際結果與這些聲明中的預測有重大差異。前瞻性陳述也應與公司美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件和今天的收益新聞稿中包含的風險因素討論結合起來考慮。

Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date. The company disclaims any obligation to update any of the risk factors or to publicly announce any revisions to the forward-looking statements discussed on today's conference call or contained in today's press release to reflect future events or developments.

敬請投資人不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述，因為這些陳述僅代表截至今日的觀點。本公司不承擔更新任何風險因素或公開宣布對今天的電話會議中討論的或今天的新聞稿中包含的前瞻性陳述的任何修訂以反映未來事件或發展的義務。

Today's call will reference non-GAAP measures. The non-GAAP measures or adjusted results referenced exclude the purchase accounting, merger, integration, and transaction costs related to the acquisition of Rogan Shoes. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is included in this morning's release.

今天的電話會議將參考非公認會計準則指標。引用的非公認會計準則指標或調整後結果不包括與收購 Rogan Shoes 相關的購買會計、合併、整合和交易成本。今天早上的發佈內容包含了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的對帳表。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Mark. Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

說完這些，我會把電話交給馬克。謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Before discussing results for the quarter, I'd like to start today by thanking all our team members for their hard work and tireless dedication. As a result of the devastating hurricanes, Helene and Milton, the lives of both our employees and our customers were dramatically impacted. Importantly, all our team members are now safe and accounted for, and we're fortunate that we did not suffer meaningful damage to our stores. We're grateful for both outcomes, and thank you, team.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。在討論本季的業績之前，我首先要感謝我們團隊成員的辛勤工作和不懈奉獻。由於遭受毀滅性的海倫颶風和米爾頓颶風的襲擊，我們員工和客戶的生活都受到了極大影響。重要的是，我們團隊的所有成員現在都很安全，我們很幸運我們的商店沒有遭受重大損失。我們對這兩種結果都很感激，謝謝團隊。

Moving now to our results. I'm so proud of the profitability the team achieved in the quarter. We delivered third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.71, which was in line with our expectations shared earlier this year. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EPS totaled $2.19, an increase of 3.8% versus prior year. Gross profit margin in the quarter was 36%, exceeding 35% for the 15th consecutive quarter.

現在來看看我們的結果。我為團隊在本季度取得的盈利感到非常自豪。我們第三季的調整後每股收益為 0.71 美元，與我們今年稍早的預期一致。年初至今，調整後的每股收益為 2.19 美元，較上年增長 3.8%。本季毛利率為36%，連續15季超過35%。

We achieved year-to-date net sales of $939.9 million, an increase of 4.9% and year-to-date adjusted operating income of $78.4 million, an increase of 6.6% versus prior year and growing faster than sales. The key drivers of our third quarter profit delivery included a very strong back-to-school performance with comparable store sales growth across our banners, efficiencies in our digital-first marketing approach, the addition of Rogan's in February 2024 and the rapid progress testing our store rebanner strategy, which I will discuss in a few moments.

我們年初至今的淨銷售額為 9.399 億美元，成長 4.9%，年初至今調整後營業收入為 7,840 萬美元，較上年增長 6.6%，且成長速度快於銷售額。我們第三季利潤實現的關鍵驅動因素包括非常強勁的返校業績，所有橫幅廣告的可比門店銷售額增長，我們數位優先行銷方法的效率，2024 年 2 月加入 Rogan's 以及我們門市重塑策略測試的快速進展，我將在稍後討論。

From a top line perspective, Rogan's continued to deliver in line with our expectation. And from a profit perspective, we further accelerated the Rogan's integration timeline and began capturing significant profit synergies in the third quarter, a full six months ahead of our previous schedule, which was to begin capturing synergies in fiscal 2025. The synergy capture in the quarter was primarily corporate and back-office support, where we had the capacity to consolidate functions ahead of schedule. Patrick will go into more details in his comments, but our ability to accelerate the capture of these savings into 2024 demonstrates our team's ability to quickly identify and capture profit synergies while also delivering on our top line expectations for Rogan's.

從營收角度來看，Rogan 的業績持續符合我們的預期。從利潤角度來看，我們進一步加快了Rogan的整合時間表，並在第三季度開始獲得顯著的利潤協同效應，比我們之前的計劃提前了整整六個月，我們之前的計劃是到2025財年開始獲得協同效應。派崔克將在他的評論中詳細介紹，但我們能夠在 2024 年加速實現這些節省，這表明我們的團隊能夠快速識別和獲取利潤協同效應，同時實現我們對 Rogan 的營收預期。

In addition to the profit synergies on Rogan's, we also drove leverage in our SG&A led by our digital-first marketing strategies. As we have previously discussed, our transition to a digital-first approach and away from more traditional forms of media, which began over a year ago, gives us the ability to quickly pivot and adjust spending to invest strategically and maximize engagement when customers are ready to purchase, just as we did during back-to-school in the quarter.

除了與 Rogan 的利潤綜效之外，我們還透過數位優先行銷策略提高了銷售、一般及行政開支的槓桿率。正如我們之前所討論的，我們從一年前開始向數位優先的方式轉變，擺脫了更傳統的媒體形式，這使我們能夠在客戶準備購買時快速調整和調整支出以進行戰略性投資並最大限度地提高參與度，就像我們在本季度開學期間所做的那樣。

Importantly, the inverse is also a key aspect of our digital strategy to be flexible enough to ratchet spending down when consumers are not engaging with advertising investments at a sufficiently profitable level, such as the weeks surrounding Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Our spending flexibility to match the customers' real-time behavior was essential to delivering our profit expectations this quarter.

重要的是，相反的做法也是我們數位策略的關鍵方面，即當消費者沒有參與足夠有利可圖的廣告投資時（例如颶風海倫和米爾頓來襲時的幾週），我們必須足夠靈活地減少支出。我們的支出靈活性以適應客戶的即時行為，對於實現本季的利潤預期至關重要。

Turning to sales in the quarter. Back-to-school was an all-around success led by children's and athletics; we achieved solid comparable store net sales growth. In the back-to-school weeks leading up to Labor Day, we achieved comparable store net sales growth in both Carnival and Station banners, delivered strong product margins, customer traffic growth and transaction size increases versus prior year. And as I mentioned earlier, our flexible digital-first marketing campaigns were very effective, driving increased customer engagement while also delivering continued profit efficiencies as we were able to reach more customers while spending less.

談到本季的銷售情況。返校活動取得了全面的成功，以兒童和體育活動為主導；我們實現了穩健的同店淨銷售額成長。在勞動節前的返校周里，我們在嘉年華和車站橫幅上都實現了可比店淨銷售額的增長，與去年相比，產品利潤率、客流量和交易規模都有所增加。正如我之前提到的，我們靈活的數位優先行銷活動非常有效，推動了客戶參與度的提高，同時也帶來了持續的利潤效率，因為我們能夠以更少的開支接觸到更多的客戶。

After Labor Day, in September and October, sales slowed meaningfully as a result of the two hurricanes and persistently warm weather. While we did not experience major damage to our stores resulting from the hurricanes, our business was significantly disrupted, ranging from some stores being closed for a day or two, all the way to one of our stores in Western North Carolina being closed for nearly a month without electricity or water. From a high-level perspective, about half of our stores were affected to varying degrees by the hurricanes, and our customers' lives were significantly impacted as well. Understandably, shopping for shoes during these storms was simply not a priority for them.

勞動節過後，9 月和 10 月，由於兩次颶風和持續的高溫天氣，銷售明顯放緩。雖然颶風沒有對我們的商店造成重大破壞，但我們的業務受到了嚴重影響，一些商店關閉了一兩天，而我們位於北卡羅來納州西部的一家商店則因斷電斷水而關閉了近一個月。從高層來看，我們大約有一半的商店不同程度地受到了颶風的影響，我們顧客的生活也受到了嚴重影響。可以理解的是，在暴風雨期間買鞋對他們來說根本不是首要任務。

Later in the quarter, the weather remained unseasonably warm into November, which delayed the start of our winter boot season. Carl will go into more details in his remarks, but as a point of reference, boots were down over 35% in the month of October and our sandals assortment, given the very warm weather, continued to deliver sales up double digit in October. All in, the disruption from the hurricanes to our stores and to our customers' lives, combined with the lack of a boot season in the quarter were the primary drivers of sales performing about $10 million below our goals in the back half of the quarter.

本季後期，11 月的天氣依然異常溫暖，這推遲了我們的冬靴季節的開始。卡爾將在他的演講中詳細說明，但作為參考，十月份靴子的銷量下降了 35％ 以上，而由於天氣非常溫暖，我們的涼鞋系列在十月份的銷量繼續實現了兩位數的增長。總而言之，颶風對我們的商店和顧客的生活造成的干擾，加上本季不是開鞋季節，是導致本季後半段銷售額比我們的目標低約 1000 萬美元的主要原因。

Now, shifting to thoughts on the balance of the year. Today, we revised our full year sales guidance given the sales performance in the third quarter. We anticipate customer purchasing behaviors during nonevent periods, which we are in now until the holidays, will continue to be in decline across the industry. And while the winter boot season was delayed out of the third quarter due to the warm weather, I expect trends to improve materially when the weather turns cooler, and we enter the winter holiday event period. Consistent with last quarter, we anticipate the lower side of our guidance range is the most likely outcome considering where we stand today. But if boot trends turn to significant growth once the weather gets cold and strong holiday results are achieved, then the mid- to higher side of the range is a possible outcome.

現在，我們來談談今年的平衡問題。今天，我們根據第三季的銷售業績修改了全年銷售預期。我們預計，在非事件期間（即現在到假期期間），整個行業的客戶購買行為將繼續下降。雖然由於天氣變暖，冬靴銷售季節推遲到了第三季度，但我預計，當天氣轉涼，進入冬季假期活動期時，趨勢將明顯改善。與上一季的情況一致，考慮到我們目前的狀況，我們預計最有可能的結果是我們預期範圍的下限。但如果天氣轉冷後靴子流行趨勢大幅成長，且假期銷售業績強勁，那麼中高階產品系列就是可能的。

As I said, we believe the lower end is most likely as persistent warm weather has continued into early fourth quarter. We also reiterated our fiscal 2024 EPS guidance range based on our strong margins and profit delivery in the third quarter and year-to-date. Patrick will go into more details on guidance, but I'm proud of the team for delivering such strong profit results in the third quarter in the face of many unexpected weather challenges.

正如我所說，我們認為最低端是最有可能的，因為持續的溫暖天氣一直持續到第四季初。我們也根據第三季和年初至今的強勁利潤率和利潤交付，重申了 2024 財年的每股收益指引範圍。帕特里克將詳細介紹指導情況，但我為團隊在面臨許多意外天氣挑戰的情況下在第三季度取得如此強勁的利潤業績而感到自豪。

I would now like to take a few moments to discuss two core growth strategies that support our vision to be the nation's leading family footwear retailer. One of those core strategies is profitable M&A activity. Rogan's, which we acquired in February 2024, continues to deliver top line results in line with our expectation. And as I discussed earlier, we achieved full run rate synergies in the quarter, six months faster than we anticipated. With integration largely complete and full synergies now being captured, the team is turning to building out our Shoe Perks CRM program in the Rogan stores, which we just rolled out and are mining customer data for new growth opportunities in the years ahead.

現在，我想花一點時間討論一下支持我們成為全國領先的家庭鞋類零售商的願景的兩項核心成長策略。這些核心策略之一就是有利可圖的併購活動。我們於 2024 年 2 月收購的 Rogan's 繼續按照我們的預期實現營收業績。正如我之前所討論的，我們在本季度實現了全面的運行率協同效應，比我們預期的快了六個月。隨著整合工作基本上完成，以及協同效應的全面實現，團隊正致力於在 Rogan 商店建立我們剛剛推出的 Shoe Perks CRM 計劃，並正在挖掘客戶數據以尋找未來幾年的新增長機會。

Shoe Station, which we acquired in December 2021, continues to deliver strong sales growth year-over-year since the acquisition, along with profitable results that are accretive to our bottom line. In addition to being a profitable acquisition, the Shoe Station brand, product assortment and in-store shopping experience make Shoe Station a key component of a second core growth strategy, which is to grow our existing business. One of the primary focus areas in this strategy is to evaluate data on community characteristics, purchasing trends, product assortment and mix at a store level.

我們於 2021 年 12 月收購的 Shoe Station 自收購以來繼續實現同比強勁的銷售成長，同時也帶來了可增加我們利潤的獲利業績。除了是一項有利可圖的收購之外，Shoe Station 品牌、產品組合和店內購物體驗也使 Shoe Station 成為第二個核心成長策略的關鍵組成部分，即發展我們現有的業務。該策略的主要關注領域之一是評估社區特徵、購買趨勢、商店層面的產品分類和組合數據。

As part of that analysis, we have defined existing Shoe Carnival locations where the customer and real estate characteristics are better aligned with Shoe Station. As I discussed on our last call, we rebannered three stores from Carnival to Station during the second quarter in the core station markets of Alabama and Mississippi. The results were very encouraging, surpassing our expectations early on and continuing to do so in the third quarter. During the third quarter, we expanded the testing of this strategy by rebannering seven more stores, bringing the total number of rebannered stores to 10. Our focus on this round of testing was to further validate that rebannering stores in core markets is profit accretive and to test expansion into additional southern markets where Shoe Station is present or known, but not the market leader.

作為分析的一部分，我們確定了現有的 Shoe Carnival 地點，這些地點的客戶和房地產特徵與 Shoe Station 更加一致。正如我在上次電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們在第二季度將阿拉巴馬州和密西西比州核心車站市場的三家商店從嘉年華商店轉移到了車站商店。結果非常令人鼓舞，早期就超出了我們的預期，並且在第三季度繼續保持這一勢頭。第三季度，我們擴大了這項策略的測試範圍，重新標榜另外 7 家商店，使重新標榜的商店總數達到 10 家。我們進行此輪測試的重點是進一步驗證在核心市場重塑商店形像是否能夠增加利潤，並測試向 Shoe Station 存在或知名但不是市場領導者的其他南部市場擴張。

With the addition of these seven newly rebannered stores, we entered multiple new station markets in Florida, Alabama and Mississippi, along with the state of Tennessee. It's still early days on these seven stores, but the results are promising. Our success criteria for rebannered stores are plus 3% to 5% sales and profit growth. And based on the first 10 stores, we are very encouraged with the early results. The stores with more than one fiscal month of operating history have delivered a total sales and profit increase of over 10%. We will continue to learn from the rebannered stores during the fourth quarter and the important holiday shopping period, but it is very clear that these stores are significantly outperforming as Shoe Station banner stores compared to their performance prior as Shoe Carnival stores.

隨著這七家新更換品牌的商店的加入，我們進入了佛羅裡達州、阿拉巴馬州、密西西比州以及田納西州的多個新的站點市場。這 7 家商店尚處於初期階段，但結果令人鼓舞。我們對重新命名商店的成功標準是銷售額和利潤成長 3% 至 5%。從前 10 家商店的情況來看，我們對早期業績感到非常鼓舞。營業歷史超過一個財月的門市總銷售額和利潤均成長10%以上。我們將繼續從第四季度和重要的假期購物期間重新命名的商店中學習，但很明顯的是，這些商店作為 Shoe Station 橫幅商店的表現明顯優於之前作為 Shoe Carnival 商店的表現。

As such, we plan to further expand the testing by rebannering an additional 25 stores in the first half of fiscal 2025. The markets currently planned are in the South and include new Shoe Station markets in Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia and possibly Kentucky and the Carolinas. With this round of testing, we plan to further test the success of this strategy by expanding it to markets outside of Alabama and Mississippi into markets further away from where the Shoe Station brand is known. With the additional 25 stores planned in early 2025, the number of rebannered stores will total 35 and represent approximately 10% of Shoe Carnival stores that will have been rebannered during the first phase of our testing.

因此，我們計劃在 2025 財年上半年重新設立另外 25 家門市，進一步擴大測試範圍。目前計劃的市場位於南部，包括田納西州、佛羅裡達州、阿拉巴馬州、密西西比州、路易斯安那州、喬治亞州以及可能的肯塔基州和卡羅來納州的新 Shoe Station 市場。透過這一輪測試，我們計劃進一步測試該策略的成功性，將其擴展到阿拉巴馬州和密西西比州以外的市場，即遠離 Shoe Station 品牌知名度的市場。加上計劃於 2025 年初新增的 25 家商店，重新啟用橫幅的商店總數將達到 35 家，約占我們測試第一階段重新啟用橫幅的 Shoe Carnival 商店總數的 10%。

We see this strategy as a potential long-term source of growth, and I look forward to providing an update on our next earnings call as well as our expectations for 2025 impact and thoughts on potentially expanding testing further geographically in the years ahead. I'd like to thank our team for their spirit of innovation and reimagining ways to better meet our customers' needs. This new strategy is energizing teams, delighting customers and early days are very profit accretive.

我們將這項策略視為潛在的長期成長源，我期待在下次收益電話會議上提供最新資訊以及我們對 2025 年影響的預期，以及對未來幾年進一步擴大測試地理範圍的想法。我要感謝我們團隊的創新精神以及重新構想更好地滿足客戶需求的方法。這項新策略激勵了團隊、取悅了客戶並且早期帶來了豐厚的利潤。

Before handing it over to Carl, I'll summarize with a few closing thoughts. We delivered a very profitable quarter and EPS that was in line with our expectation, led by a successful back-to-school, strong margins, and continued efficiencies in our successful digital-first marketing approach. Rogan's delivered top line results that were in line with our expectations for the quarter, and we accelerated the integration and delivered full profit synergies in the quarter, six months ahead of schedule. As part of our store rebanner strategy, we expanded testing in the quarter with seven additional stores, bringing the total number of stores to 10. We continue to be encouraged by the early results and currently plan to further expand the strategy by rebannering 25 additional stores in the first half of fiscal 2025.

在將其交給卡爾之前，我將總結幾點結束語。我們實現了一個非常盈利的季度，每股收益符合我們的預期，這得益於成功的返校活動、強勁的利潤率以及我們成功的數位優先行銷方法的持續效率。Rogan 的營收業績符合我們本季的預期，我們加快了整合速度，並在本季提前六個月實現了全面的利潤綜效。作為我們門市重塑策略的一部分，我們在本季度擴大了測試範圍，新增了 7 家門市，使門市總數達到 10 家。早期業績讓我們備受鼓舞，我們目前計劃進一步擴大該策略，在 2025 財年上半年重新開設 25 家門市。

And as we announced in October, Carl Scibetta has decided to retire during the spring of 2025 after over 50 years in the retail industry and over a decade of service to Shoe Carnival. I'd like to thank Carl for his partnership over the last decade as well as his valuable leadership, his friendship and many contributions to Shoe Carnival's successful growth during his tenure. The process to select Carl's successor is underway, and we plan to share further information at the appropriate time in 2025. We are grateful that Carl will remain with the company to close out fiscal 2024 and to facilitate a smooth transition during fiscal 2025.

正如我們在 10 月宣布的那樣，Carl Scibetta 在零售業工作了 50 多年，並為 Shoe Carnival 服務了十多年，他決定在 2025 年春季退休。我要感謝卡爾在過去十年的合作、寶貴的領導力、友誼以及他在任職期間為 Shoe Carnival 的成功發展所做的諸多貢獻。選擇卡爾繼任者的過程正在進行中，我們計劃在 2025 年的適當時間分享更多資訊。我們非常感激卡爾將留在公司完成 2024 財年並促進 2025 財年的順利過渡。

And now I'll hand it over to Carl.

現在我將它交給卡爾。

Thank you, Mark. I appreciate your kind words and have very much enjoyed working with you and the team over the last decade, and I look forward to closing out the year strong.

謝謝你，馬克。我感謝您的善意言辭，並且非常高興在過去十年中與您和團隊合作，我期待著以強勁的勢頭結束新的一年。

As you discussed, we delivered a strong back-to-school season with comparable store sales growth led by mid to high single-digit growth in children's and athletics. In September and October, sales slowed as the two hurricanes disrupted our business and impacted our customers. The weather also remained persistently warm in October, resulting in a boot season that was delayed out of the third quarter.

正如您所討論的，我們迎來了強勁的返校季，同店銷售額實現增長，其中兒童和運動用品的銷售額實現了中高個位數增長。9月和10月，兩場颶風擾亂了我們的業務並影響了我們的客戶，導致銷售放緩。十月份天氣持續溫暖，導致靴子生產季節延後到第三季。

From a category perspective, athletics performed well, growing low single digits in the quarter with growth in women's and children's, partially offset by a decline in men's. Boots in the third quarter, which historically has represented about a third of our entire winter boot season, were down over 35% in the month of October and over 30% in the third quarter with declines in women's, men's and children's.

從類別角度來看，田徑運動表現良好，本季度實現了低個位數增長，其中女子和兒童田徑運動有所增長，但男子田徑運動的下滑部分抵消了這一增長。第三季的靴子銷量歷來占我們整個冬靴季的三分之一，但 10 月份靴子銷量下降超過 35%，第三季靴子銷量下降超過 30%，女靴、男靴和童靴銷量均有所下降。

In the quarter, we again delivered gross profit margin above 35% for the 15th consecutive quarter, and we remain committed to our targeted CRM strategies to continue delivering sustained gross profit margin performance. Our merchandise margins in the quarter increased by approximately 50 basis points versus prior year. And on a year-to-date basis, our merchandise margins were even with the prior year.

本季度，我們連續15個季度實現毛利率超過35％，並且我們將繼續致力於有針對性的CRM策略，以繼續實現持續的毛利率表現。本季我們的商品利潤率比去年同期增加了約 50 個基點。從年初至今，我們的商品利潤率與去年持平。

Inventory at the end of the quarter totaled $406.6 million, an increase of $38.3 million versus prior year, primarily reflecting the impacts of the Rogan's acquisition in February 2024. Excluding the impacts from Rogan's, our merchandise inventory at the end of Q3 was lower by approximately 1% on a dollar basis than prior year. And on a unit basis, merchandise inventory was down approximately 3% versus prior year.

本季末的庫存總額為 4.066 億美元，比上年增加 3,830 萬美元，主要反映了 2024 年 2 月 Rogan 收購的影響。排除 Rogan 的影響，我們第三季末的商品庫存以美元計算比去年同期下降了約 1%。以單位計算，商品庫存較前一年下降約 3%。

Now, moving to sales and categories for the quarter. Total Q3 comp sales were down 4.1%, which reflected weakness in boots that was partially offset by growth in athletics, driven by strong back-to-school performance.

現在，轉向本季的銷售和類別。第三季總銷售額下降 4.1%，反映出靴子銷售額的疲軟，但被運動產品的成長（得益於開學季的強勁表現）部分抵消。

From a category perspective, total adult athletics comp sales increased low single digit in the quarter. Comp sales in women's adult athletics were up high singles, led by court and basketball, partially offset by a decline in skate. Comp sales in men's adult athletics were down low singles with declines in skate and running partially offset by strength in court and walking. Children's comp sales were down low single digit with athletic up low single digit led by court and non-athletics down high single digit. The children's nonathletic performance was primarily due to softness in boots, which were down over 30% in the quarter.

從類別角度來看，本季成人運動用品總銷售額實現了個位數低成長。女子成人運動項目的單打銷售額大幅成長，其中以網球和籃球為主，但滑冰項目的銷售額下降部分抵消了這一增長。男子成人田徑項目的單一銷售額下降，其中滑冰和跑步項目的銷售額下降，但被競走和網球項目的銷售成長部分抵消。兒童用品銷售額下降了低個位數，運動用品銷售額上漲了低個位數，其中球場用品銷售額上漲了低個位數，而非運動用品銷售額則下降了高個位數。兒童運動表現不佳主要是因為靴子太軟，本季靴子柔軟度下降了 30% 以上。

Third quarter comp sales in women's nonathletic footwear were down mid-teens. Dress and casual were both down high teens and sport was down low single digit. Sandals were down high single digit, and boots were down over 35% in the quarter. Men's non-athletic comp sales were down mid-single digit. Dress was down low double digit, and casual was down low single digit. Men's boots were down high single digit.

第三季度，女士非運動鞋類銷售額較去年同期下降了 15%。正裝和休閒裝的銷量均下降了十幾歲，而運動裝的銷量則下降了個位數。本季度，涼鞋的銷量下降了個位數，靴子的銷量下降了 35% 以上。男子非運動類商品的銷售額下降了中個位數。正裝服飾價格下降了兩位數，而休閒服飾價格則下降了個位數。男靴價格下跌了個位數。

Coming out of the quarter, inventory content is clean and in good position. Specifically, our boot inventory is over 15% lower than prior year. And with our strong vendor relationships, the team has been able to adjust receipts based on category trends to date, and we are on target to finish the season in line with our boot inventory plan.

本季結束時，庫存內容清晰且狀況良好。具體來說，我們的靴子庫存比去年同期低了 15% 以上。憑藉我們與供應商的牢固關係，團隊能夠根據迄今為止的類別趨勢調整收貨，並且我們的目標是按照我們的靴子庫存計劃完成本季。

In closing, we achieved a strong back-to-school performance led by children's and athletics in the quarter. Sales in September and October slowed due to the impacts of hurricanes on our business and our customers and the persistently warm weather, which resulted in the winter boot season being delayed out of the quarter. Despite these significant impacts to sales after Labor Day, we delivered a very profitable quarter with strong margins, and our inventory is well positioned to continue providing the product assortment, mix and values that our customers want.

最後，本季度，我們以兒童和體育為主導，取得了強勁的開學成績。由於颶風對我們的業務和客戶的影響以及持續的高溫天氣，9 月和 10 月的銷售放緩，導致冬靴季節推遲到本季之外。儘管勞動節後銷售受到重大影響，但我們仍實現了本季的豐厚利潤和強勁的利潤率，而且我們的庫存狀況良好，可以繼續提供客戶想要的產品分類、組合和價值。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Patrick for a review of our financials.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給派崔克，讓他審查我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Carl. Moving on to our financial results. We were pleased to deliver EPS in line with expectations for the quarter and grow our year-to-date top line and EPS compared to the prior year. As a reminder, the 53rd week in fiscal 2023 will not recur in fiscal 2024. And as a result, the retail calendar weeks in each quarter shift in 2024 as compared to prior year. This shift benefited second quarter net sales approximately $20 million and unfavorably impacted our third quarter by approximately $20 million. On a year-to-date basis, comparisons to the prior year now incorporate material elements of the shift between these two quarters.

謝謝，卡爾。接下來介紹我們的財務表現。我們很高興看到本季的每股盈餘符合預期，與去年同期相比，今年迄今的營業收入和每股盈餘都有所成長。提醒一下，2023 財年的第 53 週不會在 2024 財年重複出現。因此，與前一年相比，2024 年每季的零售日曆週都會有所變動。這一轉變使第二季的淨銷售額受益約 2,000 萬美元，但對第三季的淨銷售額造成約 2,000 萬美元的不利影響。從年初至今的數據來看，與去年同期的比較已經包含了這兩個季度之間轉變的重要因素。

In the third quarter, net sales totaled $306.9 million, down $13 million compared to the prior year or 4.1%. This decrease was due to the $20 million retail calendar shift. In the quarter, net sales otherwise increased $7 million or 2.2% compared to Q3 last year. On a year-to-date basis, which now includes the material impacts of the retail calendar shift, net sales totaled $939.9 million, an increase of 4.9% versus prior year.

第三季度，淨銷售額為 3.069 億美元，較上年下降 1,300 萬美元，下降 4.1%。這一下降是由於 2000 萬美元的零售日曆轉變造成的。本季度，淨銷售額與去年第三季度相比增加了 700 萬美元，即 2.2%。從年初至今的數據來看，包括零售日曆轉變的重大影響，淨銷售額總計 9.399 億美元，較前一年成長 4.9%。

Now, going into a little more detail on the top line in the quarter. Net sales were led by strong back-to-school performance and comparable store sales growth across our banners in August. Net sales in the quarter were also favorably impacted by Rogan's, which we acquired in mid-February of this year. I'll discuss Rogan's sales activity and integration successes in more detail in a moment.

現在，讓我們來更詳細地介紹一下本季的營收情況。8 月份，淨銷售額主要得益於強勁的返校銷售業績及各品牌同店銷售額的成長。本季的淨銷售額也受到了我們今年 2 月中旬收購的 Rogan's 的正面影響。稍後我將更詳細地討論 Rogan 的銷售活動和整合成功。

Net sales in September and October were significantly impacted by the two hurricanes that disrupted many of our store operations and customer shopping trends. Net sales were also negatively impacted by persistently warm weather that delayed a meaningful start to the winter boot shopping season out of the third quarter. On a comparable store sale basis, which excludes the impact of the retail calendar shift, Rogan sales and other new store growth, net sales in the third quarter declined 4.1% as impacted by August back-to-school low singles comp growth and the weather-related declines in September and October. Comparable store sales in these two months were down high singles compared to last year's combined September and October, with boots driving about half of the decline.

九月和十月的淨銷售額受到兩次颶風的嚴重影響，兩次颶風擾亂了我們許多商店的營運和顧客購物趨勢。持續的高溫天氣也對淨銷售額產生了負面影響，導致冬季靴子購物季推遲到第三季開始。以可比店鋪銷售額計算，排除零售日曆變化、Rogan 銷售和其他新店增長的影響，第三季度淨銷售額下降 4.1%，原因是受到 8 月份開學季單打銷售額低迷以及 9 月和 10 月天氣相關下降的影響。這兩個月的同店銷售額與去年九月和十月的總和相比下降幅度較大，其中靴子約佔降幅的一半。

For the entire quarter, the slower boot sales also drove about half of the 4.1% comparable store sales decline, partially offset by continued strength in Athletics. Q3 gross profit margin was 36% compared to Q3 2023 gross profit margin of 36.8%, declining 80 basis points compared to last year's third quarter. The decrease was primarily due to BD&O costs, which increased in the quarter on higher occupancy costs from operating more stores and deleverage as impacted by the retail calendar shift. On a year-to-date basis, gross profit margin was even with the prior year, consistent with our expectations and full year guidance.

就整個季度而言，靴子銷售放緩也導致同店銷售額下降 4.1%，但被田徑運動的持續強勁表現部分抵消。第三季毛利率為 36%，而 2023 年第三季毛利率為 36.8%，較去年第三季下降 80 個基點。下降的主要原因是 BD&O 成本，由於經營更多門市導致的入住成本上升以及零售日曆轉變導致的去槓桿化，該成本在本季度有所增加。從年初至今，毛利率與去年持平，符合我們的預期和全年指引。

For the quarter, merchandise margins were up 50 basis points, as Carl discussed. And on a year-to-date basis, merchandise margins were flat to prior year, consistent with our overall gross profit margin and in line with expectations. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A was 28%, reflecting a 10-basis point decrease in the quarter, even with the lower shifted net sales. SG&A in Q3 was $85.9 million, representing a decrease of $3.9 million versus 2023's third quarter, primarily related to lower selling costs at Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station stores. As Mark discussed, these lower selling costs reflect optimized advertising spend driven by our digital-first marketing strategy. These lower selling expenses more than offset the cost of operating Rogan's stores in the quarter.

正如卡爾所說，本季商品利潤率上漲了 50 個基點。從年初至今，商品利潤率與前一年持平，與我們的整體毛利率一致，符合預期。淨銷售額的百分比，銷售、一般及行政費用為 28%，即使淨銷售額下降，本季也下降了 10 個基點。第三季的銷售、一般及行政支出為 8,590 萬美元，較 2023 年第三季減少 390 萬美元，主要因為 Shoe Carnival 和 Shoe Station 商店的銷售成本降低。正如馬克所討論的，這些較低的銷售成本反映了我們的數位優先行銷策略所推動的廣告支出優化。較低的銷售費用抵消了本季營運 Rogan 商店的成本。

Now, going into more detail on Rogan's top line results and accelerated integration. We are very happy with how the Rogan's acquisition has performed with net sales approximating $22.3 million in the quarter and $63.9 million year-to-date, in line with our full year expectation. We continue to expect Rogan's to deliver annual net sales of over $80 million in fiscal 2024. We have completed integration of store operations, marketing, e-commerce platforms, point-of-sale systems, merchandising and back office. With respect to customer-facing technology, Rogan's customers can now participate in Shoe Perks, our customer loyalty program. And toward the end of the third quarter, we integrated the Rogan's e-commerce platform into Shoe Stations. For Rogan's customers, these changes expand merchandise selection and provide access to other new benefits.

現在，我們將更詳細地介紹 Rogan 的營收業績和加速整合。我們對 Rogan 的收購表現非常滿意，本季淨銷售額約為 2,230 萬美元，年初至今淨銷售額為 6,390 萬美元，符合我們的全年預期。我們繼續預計 Rogan 的 2024 財年年淨銷售額將超過 8,000 萬美元。我們已經完成了店鋪營運、行銷、電子商務平台、銷售點系統、商品銷售和後台辦公室的整合。在面向客戶的技術方面，Rogan 的客戶現在可以參與我們的客戶忠誠度計劃 Shoe Perks。在第三季末，我們將 Rogan 的電子商務平台整合到了 Shoe Stations 中。對於 Rogan 的客戶來說，這些變化擴大了商品選擇範圍並提供了其他新好處。

As Mark discussed, we captured significant profit synergies in the quarter, six months ahead of our previously expected schedule, which was to generate savings beginning in fiscal 2025. We currently estimate Rogan's synergy capture of over $1 million in fiscal 2024, with a significant portion of that total banked in the third quarter. Our estimate for total Rogan's profit synergies continues to be approximately $2.5 million, with approximately half of that total now expected to be captured in fiscal 2024.

正如馬克所討論的，我們在本季度實現了顯著的利潤協同效應，比我們之前預期的計劃提前了六個月，即從 2025 財年開始產生節約。我們目前估計，Rogan 在 2024 財年的綜效將超過 100 萬美元，其中很大一部分將在第三季實現。我們對 Rogan 總利潤綜效的估計仍約為 250 萬美元，其中約一半預計將在 2024 財年實現。

Moving back to results in the quarter. Operating income totaled $24.5 million, a decrease of $3.4 million versus prior year on a GAAP basis and a decrease of $3 million on an adjusted basis as impacted by the lower net sales from the retail calendar shift, partially offset by growth, principally from the Rogan's acquisition and related profit synergies as well as lower SG&A. Year-to-date, adjusted operating income totaled $78.4 million, increasing 6.6% versus the prior year.

回顧本季的業績。營業收入總計 2,450 萬美元，按 GAAP 計算較上年減少 340 萬美元，按調整後計算減少 300 萬美元，這主要受到零售日曆轉變導致的淨銷售額下降的影響，但部分被增長所抵消，主要來自 Rogan 的收購和相關的利潤協同效應以及較低的銷售、一般和行政費用。年初至今，調整後的營業收入總計 7,840 萬美元，較前一年成長 6.6%。

On a GAAP basis in the quarter, operating income included approximately $300,000 of merger and integration expenses related to the Rogan's acquisition, of which approximately $200,000 was in cost of sales and $100,000 was in SG&A. Year-to-date, these expenses totaled $1.3 million with approximately $800,000 in cost of sales and $500,000 in SG&A.

依照本季的 GAAP 基礎，營業收入包括與 Rogan 收購相關的約 30 萬美元的合併和整合費用，其中約 20 萬美元為銷售成本，10 萬美元為銷售、一般和行政費用。年初至今，這些費用總計 130 萬美元，其中銷售成本約 80 萬美元，銷售、一般及行政費用 50 萬美元。

Our income tax rate in the quarter was 24.7%, resulting in a headwind to EPS of approximately $0.01 per share versus the prior year third quarter rate of 23.8%. This higher rate primarily reflected discrete benefits that favorably impacted the prior year and did not recur in 2024. Year-to-date, our tax rate is 25.5% in fiscal 2024 compared to 23% last year, a headwind to the year-to-date EPS of approximately $0.07.

本季我們的所得稅率為 24.7%，導致每股盈餘下降約 0.01 美元，而去年同期的稅率為 23.8%。這一較高的利率主要反映了對前一年產生有利影響且在 2024 年不會再次出現的離散福利。年初至今，我們 2024 財年的稅率為 25.5%，而去年為 23%，這對年初至今的每股收益約 0.07 美元造成了阻力。

On a GAAP basis, net income for third quarter 2024 was $19.2 million or $0.70 per diluted share and in line with expectation. On a year-to-date basis, GAAP net income and EPS have increased 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively, versus prior year. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding the Rogan's acquisition-related costs, adjusted net income for the third quarter was $19.5 million or $0.71 per diluted share and in line with expectation.

根據 GAAP 計算，2024 年第三季淨收入為 1,920 萬美元，即每股攤薄收入 0.70 美元，符合預期。從年初至今，GAAP 淨收入和每股盈餘分別較上年成長 2.2% 和 1.9%。以非公認會計準則計算，不包括 Rogan 的收購相關成本，第三季調整後淨收入為 1,950 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.71 美元，符合預期。

On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EPS totaled $2.19, an increase of 3.8% versus prior year, even with the challenging market conditions experienced in September and October. 2023 fiscal year-end marked the 19th consecutive year the company ended the year with no debt. And through the third quarter of 2024, we have continued to fund our operations and growth investments from our operating cash flow and without debt.

從年初至今，調整後的每股盈餘總計 2.19 美元，較上年同期成長 3.8%，儘管 9 月和 10 月的市場環境充滿挑戰。 2023財年末是該公司連續第19年無債務。到 2024 年第三季度，我們將繼續透過經營現金流為我們的營運和成長投資提供資金，並且不承擔任何債務。

At the end of the quarter, we had total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of approximately $91 million, an increase of $20 million versus third quarter 2023, even with the all-cash acquisition of Rogan's earlier this year. Cash flow from operations year-to-date in fiscal 2024 totaled $58.1 million. Our strong balance sheet and history of generating steady operating cash flow are key drivers to internally fund our growth objectives, including our emerging rebanner strategy and profitable M&A as well as to deliver dividends and when desirable share repurchases. During the quarter, we did not repurchase any shares and have $50 million available under our current share repurchase program. Inventory at the end of the quarter totaled $406.6 million, an increase of approximately $38 million versus prior year, primarily reflecting Rogan's acquired inventory.

截至本季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和有價證券總額約為 9,100 萬美元，較 2023 年第三季增加 2,000 萬美元，即使今年稍早全現金收購了 Rogan's。2024 財年迄今的經營現金流總計 5,810 萬美元。我們強勁的資產負債表和產生穩定經營現金流的歷史是我們從內部為成長目標提供資金的關鍵驅動力，包括我們新興的品牌重塑策略和有利可圖的併購，以及派發股息和在適當的時候回購股票。在本季度，我們沒有回購任何股票，根據目前的股票回購計劃，我們有 5000 萬美元可用。本季末的庫存總額為 4.066 億美元，較上年增加約 3,800 萬美元，主要反映了 Rogan 收購的庫存。

As Carl discussed earlier, our inventory content is clean and in good position, including boot inventory. Including the newly rebannered stores in Q3, at the end of the quarter, we operated 431 stores with 361 Shoe Carnival stores, 42 Shoe Station stores and the 28 Rogan's locations. One new Shoe Station store opened in Q3, entering Tennessee, an expansion into a new market for the banner. And as Mark mentioned, we plan to rebanner 25 additional stores in the first half of fiscal 2025.

正如卡爾之前所討論的，我們的庫存內容乾淨且狀況良好，包括引導庫存。包括第三季新更換品牌的商店在內，截至本季末，我們共經營 431 家商店，其中包括 361 家 Shoe Carnival 商店、42 家 Shoe Station 商店和 28 家 Rogan's 商店。第三季開設了一家新的 Shoe Station 商店，進入田納西州，這是該品牌向新市場的擴張。正如馬克所提到的，我們計劃在 2025 財年上半年重新設立 25 家門市。

Moving on to our 2024 outlook. Based on year-to-date results, inclusive of third quarter profitability that was in line with expectation and net sales that was lower than expectation, today, we provided the following fiscal 2024 guidance ranges. We now expect full year 2024 net sales in a range of $1.20 billion to $1.23 billion, reflecting growth of 2% to 4.5% versus fiscal 2023. We continue to expect gross profit margin to be approximately even with fiscal 2023.

接下來是我們對 2024 年的展望。根據年初至今的業績，包括符合預期的第三季獲利能力和低於預期的淨銷售額，今天，我們提供了以下 2024 財年指導範圍。我們現在預計 2024 年全年淨銷售額將在 12 億美元至 12.3 億美元之間，較 2023 財年增長 2% 至 4.5%。我們繼續預期毛利率將與 2023 財年大致持平。

We now expect SG&A as a percent of net sales to be approximately 30 basis points higher than fiscal 2023 compared to our previous guidance of 40 basis points higher. This improved guidance is driven by expected synergy capture and third quarter operating expense management. We now expect our income tax rate to be lower than our previous guidance at approximately 25.6% to 26%. Our previous guidance was a tax rate of 26%. We continue to expect GAAP EPS in a range of $2.55 to $2.70 and adjusted EPS in a range of $2.60 to $2.75.

我們現在預計，銷售、一般及行政開支佔淨銷售額的百分比將比 2023 財年高出約 30 個基點，而我們先前預期的是高出 40 個基點。這項改進的指導意見是由預期的協同效應和第三季的營運費用管理所推動的。我們現在預計我們的所得稅率將低於先前的預期，約為 25.6% 至 26%。我們之前的預期稅率為26%。我們繼續預期 GAAP EPS 在 2.55 美元至 2.70 美元之間，調整後 EPS 在 2.60 美元至 2.75 美元之間。

Going into a little more detail on our revised guidance and what it means for the balance of the year. We are currently in a nonevent buying period until we get to the holidays. As Mark discussed, we expect that customer purchasing behavior during nonevent periods will continue to be in decline across the industry. We will continue to monitor customer buying behavior closely during this period before and after the holiday season and pivot accordingly. While we see a path to achieving the higher side of our net sales guidance and the higher side of our EPS guidance, consistent with last quarter, we anticipate the more likely outcome is the lower side of both ranges, unless, as Mark pointed out, we have a record boot season and holiday to close out fiscal 2024.

更詳細地介紹我們修訂後的指引以及它對今年平衡的影響。我們目前正處於一個平淡的購買期，直到假期到來。正如馬克所討論的，我們預計整個行業在非事件期間的客戶購買行為將繼續下降。我們將繼續密切關注節日前後這段時間的顧客購買行為，並做出相應的調整。雖然我們看到了實現淨銷售額預期和每股收益預期更高水平的途徑，與上一季一致，但我們預計更有可能的結果是這兩個範圍的較低水平，除非如馬克指出的那樣，我們在 2024 財年結束時迎來創紀錄的開機季和假期。

Our guidance assumes fourth quarter growth from Rogan's and Shoe Station new stores and a comparable store sale decline led by Shoe Carnival brick-and-mortar stores, consistent with the low to mid-single-digit comparable store sales decrease experienced in the quarter and year-to-date at the lower side of our guidance range. In Q4 2024, the loss of the 53rd week and the retail calendar shift will result in the loss of approximately $20 million in net sales compared to the prior year. We estimate the retail calendar shift and the loss of the 53rd week will be a headwind to EPS of approximately $0.10 in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year fourth quarter when we earned EPS of $0.57.

我們的預期是假設第四季度 Rogan 和 Shoe Station 新店銷售額將實現成長，而 Shoe Carnival 實體店銷售額將領跌，這與本季和年初至今同店銷售額低至個位數的降幅一致，處於我們預期範圍的低端。2024 年第四季度，第 53 週的損失和零售日曆的轉變將導致淨銷售額與前一年相比損失約 2,000 萬美元。我們估計，零售日曆的轉變和第 53 週的損失將對第四季度的每股收益造成約 0.10 美元的阻力，而去年同期的每股收益為 0.57 美元。

To close, we delivered a profitable third quarter and EPS that was in line with the expectations set in our last earnings call. We are very proud of the team and teamwork it took to achieve this for our shareholders. Achievement was driven by a very successful August back-to-school and overcoming subsequent softness in market demand caused by two natural disasters that affected about half our stores and that changed the landscape of consumer spending, in addition to very warm weather that delayed our boot season. Lower boot sales were about half of our comparable store sales decline in the quarter. We pivoted in the quarter to accelerated synergy capture and expense management to offset the slower-than-expected September and October market conditions.

最後，我們在第三季度實現了盈利，每股收益符合我們上次財報電話會議設定的預期。我們為我們的團隊和團隊合作為股東實現這一目標感到非常自豪。我們取得的成績得益於 8 月份非常成功的返校季，以及克服了隨後的市場需求疲軟所帶來的影響。靴子銷售額的下降約佔本季同店銷售額下降的一半。我們在本季採取了加速協同效應和費用管理的舉措，以抵消 9 月和 10 月市場狀況低於預期的影響。

With respect to our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2024, we lowered our sales guidance given the September and October market conditions and reiterated our EPS guidance. We now expect lower SG&A as a percent of net sales given synergy capture and Q3 expense management. And while our tax rate is higher than last year, we are now anticipating it will be lower than originally expected. And we are excited about our product assortment for holiday and our plans to drive traffic and profitability in the fourth quarter.

對於 2024 財年剩餘時間的展望，考慮到 9 月和 10 月的市場狀況，我們下調了銷售預期，並重申了每股收益預期。考慮到綜效和第三季費用管理，我們現在預期銷售、一般及行政開支佔淨銷售額的百分比會下降。雖然我們的稅率高於去年，但我們目前預計它將低於最初的預期。我們對假日產品組合以及第四季度推動流量和盈利的計劃感到非常興奮。

Our strategy to drive long-term growth remains unchanged. Our strong balance sheet and solid steady cash flow put us in a great position to continue to fund internal growth, including our emerging rebanner strategy to execute on desirable M&A opportunities and most importantly, the continued ability to deliver long-term shareholder return.

我們推動長期成長的策略保持不變。我們強勁的資產負債表和穩健的現金流使我們處於有利地位，可以繼續為內部成長提供資金，包括我們新興的重塑策略，以執行理想的併購機會，最重要的是，繼續為股東提供長期回報。

This concludes our financial review. Now, we would like to open up the call for questions.

我們的財務審查到此結束。現在，我們想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Mitch Kummetz, Seaport Research Partners.

（操作員指示） Mitch Kummetz，海港研究合作夥伴。

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. Carl, congrats and best of luck to you. And unfortunately, I'm going to break your rule about one question and one follow-up. I've got maybe a handful here. So let me start just, Mark, on the hurricanes. Is there any way to quantify the sales impact from those two hurricanes? And I'm curious, have you seen any replacement buying kick in off late as far as those impacted markets? That's my first question.

是的。感謝您回答我的問題。卡爾，祝賀你並祝你好運。不幸的是，我將違反你的關於一個問題和一個後續問題的規則。我這裡可能有少數。馬克，我先來談談颶風。有什麼方法可以量化這兩個颶風對銷售造成的影響嗎？我很好奇，就那些受影響的市場而言，您是否看到最近有任何替代購買出現？這是我的第一個問題。

Good morning, Mitch. Thanks for the question. When you look at the losses, I think Patrick summed it up well. About half of our loss came from that persistently warm weather and boot declined with boots down over 35%, specifically in the month of October. The other half, not all of it, but most of the other half would come from the hurricane disruption we had from about half of our fleet during the Hurricane Helene and Milton. So roughly half and half.

早上好，米奇。謝謝你的提問。當你看到損失時，我認為帕特里克總結得很好。我們的損失大約有一半是由於持續的高溫天氣造成的，靴子銷量下降了 35% 以上，尤其是在 10 月。另一半，不是全部，但其中的大部分損失來自海倫颶風和米爾頓颶風期間我們大約一半的船隊遭受的颶風破壞。所以大致是一半一半。

And then how about replacement buying? Anything there? Are you seeing any benefit from that?

那麼替代購買怎麼樣呢？有什麼嗎？你覺得這樣做有什麼好處嗎？

We have not yet. We still believe as the weather turns cold, people will be rethinking about the lost boots, the lost product that they suffered during some of these catastrophic storms in the South. So we remain optimistic that once it gets colder and people really start to pivot from recovery mode, which they've been in for the last six, eight weeks to starting to think about more joyful things, the holiday, time with families together.

我們還沒有。我們仍然相信，隨著天氣轉冷，人們會重新思考在南方一些災難性風暴中失去的靴子和產品。因此，我們仍然樂觀地認為，一旦天氣變冷，人們就會真正開始從過去六到八週以來的恢復模式轉向考慮更快樂的事情，例如假期、與家人在一起的時光。

They'll start to think about repurchasing and things they need to do, whether they lost that dress shoe so they can go to a special Thanksgiving next week or holiday gifting. We think that is ahead of us, and we remain optimistic, as you could see in our guidance that a profitable quarter remains ahead of us.

他們會開始考慮重新購買和需要做的事情，無論他們是否丟失了那雙正裝鞋，以便下周可以去參加一個特別的感恩節或節日禮物。我們認為這是我們未來可期的，而且我們仍然保持樂觀，正如你在我們的指引中所看到的，我們仍將迎來一個盈利的季度。

And then on boots, obviously, a slow start as you've detailed. What is your expectation for the fourth quarter? And Carl, I'm curious, do you see any pent-up demand potentially benefiting you in the fourth quarter, just given the slow start? Or is that just lost business?

然後就靴子而言，顯然，正如您詳細描述的那樣，起步緩慢。您對第四季的預期是什麼？卡爾，我很好奇，考慮到開局緩慢，您是否認為第四季度有被壓抑的需求可能為您帶來好處？或者這只是業務損失？

Hi, Mitch. We believe there's some pent-up demand that's going to come our way in the fourth quarter. However, we don't see any recovery from the lost business in Q3. And while we are planning Q4 in our guidance, we are still planning boots down and managing that boot inventory down in Q4, much less than we did in Q3, but we do not see any recovery nor do we see boots turning positive in the quarter.

你好，米奇。我們相信，一些被壓抑的需求將在第四季湧現。然而，我們並未看到第三季業務損失有任何復甦跡象。雖然我們在指引中計劃了第四季度，但我們仍計劃減少靴子數量，並在第四季度減少靴子庫存，比第三季度少得多，但我們沒有看到任何復蘇，也沒有看到靴子在本季度轉為正數。

Mitch to build on that real quick, we're only a couple of weeks in, so I can't share how the holiday is going to play out. But that persistent warm weather I spoke about, it continued to now. So boots have not started to turn to that positive place.

米奇，我們很快就能講完這個消息，我們才剛開始幾個星期，所以我無法分享假期將如何度過。但我所說的持續溫暖天氣一直持續到現在。因此，靴子還沒有開始轉向那個積極的地方。

We expect it coming. And while we're no weather forecasters, cold weather is coming. Winter is coming, and we do anticipate growth then. But as you all know, the highly accretive margin capture was not made in these early weeks. And so that's going to make it very unlikely it's a record boot season. It will be strong, but it's getting shorter by the week before it kicks in.

我們期待它的到來。雖然我們不是天氣預報員，但寒冷天氣即將來臨。冬天即將來臨，我們確實期待經濟成長。但眾所周知，在最初幾週內，我們並沒有實現大幅增值的利潤。因此，今年的開鞋季不太可能創下紀錄。它將很強大，但是在它開始發揮作用之前的一周內，它會變得越來越短。

And it sounds like your boot inventory coming out of 3Q is in pretty good shape. And I'm guessing that as we're early in 4Q, you've been able to continue to work down those receipts as the weather hasn't cooperated.

聽起來您第三季的庫存狀況相當不錯。而且我猜測，由於我們正處於第四季度初期，由於天氣狀況不佳，您仍能夠繼續減少這些收入。

Sure, Mitch. The team did a great job planning the boot season out, holding back on some Q4 receipts so they can get a good glimpse at what was going to happen. That on top of the fact that our partners have really come to the table and helped us. We believe we're going to be in great boot position coming out of the quarter. And we're in a great boot position to take advantage of what's remaining in the season right now. So very pleased with the way the team managed this. They did an outstanding job handling the boot season this year.

當然，米奇。球隊在規劃新賽季方面做得非常出色，他們保留了一些第四季度的收據，以便能夠很好地了解即將發生的情況。最重要的是我們的合作夥伴確實來到我們面前並給了我們幫助。我們相信，我們在本季將處於良好的開局地位。現在我們處於非常有利的位置，可以利用本賽季剩餘的時間。我對團隊的處理方式非常滿意。他們在今年的開船季處理上做得非常出色。

And then a couple of last ones. Maybe sort of big picture on the sales guide. It looks like the low end of the range is down $30 million, and that would seem to factor in 3Q coming in about $13 million below plan, which would suggest that maybe the fourth quarter is looking about $17 million worse than prior expectations. First of all, I don't know if you want to confirm my math, but I guess more so, what's changed in terms of your outlook for 4Q versus prior expectations? And how much of that is what you're seeing quarter-to-date with boots?

還有最後幾個。也許是銷售指南上的全景圖。看起來該範圍的低端下降了 3000 萬美元，而且這似乎考慮到第三季度的銷售額比計劃低約 1300 萬美元，這可能意味著第四季度的銷售額比之前的預期低約 1700 萬美元。首先，我不知道您是否想確認我的計算，但我想更重要的是，與先前的預期相比，您對第四季的展望有何變化？其中，截至本季度，您看到的靴子銷量有多少？

As I said in my speech, we anticipate mid to low side of the guidance being likely. The big change, you've characterized it accurately. We're building into the lower side of the revenue forecast that persistently warm weather has continued through today as we speak. And so, the boot season is getting shorter and shorter for positive impacts and revenue impacts.

正如我在演講中所說，我們預計指導值可能處於中低。對於巨大的變化，您對其的描述非常準確。我們正在將收入預測的較低水平納入考慮，因為我們談話的時候持續的溫暖天氣一直持續到今天。因此，就正面影響和收入影響而言，開機季節越來越短。

We've built that in to say it turns, but it hasn't turned yet. But I want to reiterate, if boots really kick in next week when the holiday season starts in earnest, the mid to upper side of our guide remains squarely in reach. And if we have a great holiday, we have great confidence that we have in our sights the profit delivery.

我們已經將其內置為可以轉動，但它還沒有轉動。但我想重申，如果下週假期真正開始時靴子真的開始發揮作用，那麼我們的指南的中上端仍然可以觸及。如果我們度過了一個愉快的假期，我們就非常有信心實現利潤。

And then, Mark, maybe lastly, on the rebannering. I know you're still super early in the process. But is there anything that you're seeing now that you've moved outside of Alabama in terms of the performance of the rebannered stores, Alabama versus non-Alabama?

然後，馬克，也許最後要談談重新設計橫幅。我知道你還處於這個過程的早期階段。但是，從阿拉巴馬州和非阿拉巴馬州相比，現在您已經搬到了阿拉巴馬州以外，重新命名的商店的業績有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. Thank you. We are very excited about this for a long-term growth strategy. The first test, inclusive of the 10 stores, it showed us explosive results in markets where the Shoe Station brand is known, and we were operating a Shoe Carnival, far stronger than plus 10% sales and profit. As we get further away and we're building brand awareness, we're still seeing very strong results with over 10% sales and profit. But now we're starting to enter new markets like the state of Tennessee. We're very excited. We've just rebannered two stores in the state of Tennessee and opened a new one and progressing in earnest in 2025 with rebannering in Tennessee. They're still showing promising results as well.

是的。謝謝。我們對這項長期成長策略感到非常興奮。第一次測試包括10家商店，在Shoe Station品牌知名的市場中，我們取得了爆炸性的結果，我們舉辦了一場鞋業嘉年華，銷售額和利潤都遠超10%。隨著我們不斷走遠並建立品牌知名度，我們仍然看到非常強勁的業績，銷售額和利潤超過 10%。但現在我們開始進入田納西州等新市場。我們非常興奮。我們剛剛在田納西州重新命名了兩家商店，並開設了一家新商店，並將在 2025 年認真推進田納西州的重新命名工作。它們仍舊展現出令人欣喜的成果。

But our expectation is as we get further and further away from the mothership of core Alabama, we get closer and closer to our success criteria, which is in that plus 3% to 5% sales and profit range. We're still doing better than that now. But as we branch further and further into those new states I mentioned, we would anticipate things get incredibly profitable, strong leverage and a significant outperform compared to, say, the Shoe Carnival low to mid-single comp declines. We're flipping that dramatically. But I would set the stage as we're in these early learnings, the 3% to 5% range is probably a more likely anticipation. We hope to beat it. A lot more to learn when we rebanner 25 more in all these new markets during Q1, but it is a big winner so far.

但我們的預期是，隨著我們離核心阿拉巴馬母艦越來越遠，我們就會越來越接近我們的成功標準，也就是銷售額和利潤增加 3% 到 5% 的範圍。我們現在做得仍然比那時更好。但是，隨著我們的業務不斷深入我所提到的這些新州，我們預計，與鞋業嘉年華 (Shoe Carnival) 低至中等的單一同類產品下滑相比，我們的利潤將非常可觀，槓桿率也將非常強勁，而且業績將有顯著提升。我們正在徹底改變這一現狀。但我將在這些早期學習中做好準備，3% 到 5% 的範圍可能是更有可能的預期。我們希望能戰勝它。當我們在第一季在所有這些新市場重新定位另外 25 家公司時，還有很多東西需要學習，但到目前為止，它是一個最大的贏家。

Great. Thanks and good luck for the holiday.

偉大的。謝謝並祝你節日快樂。

Sam Poser, Williams Trading.

薩姆·波瑟（Sam Poser），威廉斯貿易公司。

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just want to verify one thing and then ask another question. Did you say on the prior earnings calls that Rogan's was expected to $84 million. Has Rogan's guidance changed? Or are you wording it differently?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想驗證一件事，然後再問另一個問題。您是否在先前的財報電話會議上說過，Rogan 的預期營收為 8,400 萬美元？羅根的指導方針發生了改變嗎？或是您用不同的方式表達？

Sam, good morning. We have said that. There's no change. It's still over 80. We still expect it to deliver that.

山姆，早安。我們已經說過了。沒有變化。現在還是80多啊。我們仍然期望它能夠實現這一目標。

Thank you. And then your inventory levels are higher than I anticipated going into the quarter, taking Rogan into account. When we get to the end of the year, what's it going to look like? And have any of the inventory receipts or planned receipts going forward impacted by the potential for tariffs? And I also want to know what your thoughts are about tariffs within your mix and how you're thinking about that going into 2025?

謝謝。考慮到 Rogan 的因素，您的庫存水準高於我預期的本季水準。當我們進入年底時，情況會是什麼樣子呢？未來的庫存收貨或計劃收貨是否會受到關稅可能性的影響？我還想知道您對關稅組合有何看法，以及您對 2025 年關稅的看法如何？

Hey, Sam. It's Patrick. I'll take the first part of your question about our inventory balances, and then I'll pass it off to Carl to talk about tariffs. Our inventory balance, we expect it's -- right now, it's 3% down on a unit basis, 1% down on a dollar basis. We do see currently reductions in that by the time we get to the end of the year. But that balance reduction won't be as great as previously disclosed. This rebanner strategy that we're very excited about requires us to carry a little bit more inventory and investing in those hot brands that Shoe Station sales and having them ready for rebannering these 25 stores in the first quarter requires us to carry a little bit more inventory at year-end.

嘿，山姆。是派崔克。我將回答您問題的第一部分，關於我們的庫存餘額，然後我將把它交給卡爾，讓他討論關稅問題。我們預計，我們的庫存餘額——目前，按單位計算下降了 3%，以美元計算下降了 1%。我們確實看到，到今年年底，這一數字將會減少。但餘額減少的幅度不會像之前揭露的那麼大。我們對這項重新佈告策略感到非常興奮，這要求我們持有更多的庫存，並投資於 Shoe Station 銷售的熱門品牌，並讓它們準備好在第一季度重新佈告這 25 家商店，這要求我們在年底持有更多的庫存。

Sam, on the tariff front, seems to be the topic of conversation with every vendor appointment we have. We're watching it closely. We direct import ourselves a very small percentage of our own inventory. So we'll see how that gets affected and how the vendors, if indeed the tariffs come across at whatever they come, we'll have to be very careful about pricing to our consumer and certainly look at where products are being made and how we can best provide the value that our consumers are used to at this point. But at this point, we're like everybody else, we're watching it very carefully, and we will adjust where we need to, but most importantly, continue to deliver value to our customers.

就關稅方面而言，Sam 似乎是我們與每個供應商約談時討論的主題。我們正在密切關注。我們直接進口自有庫存的一小部分。因此，我們將觀察這會受到怎樣的影響，以及對供應商的影響。但在這一點上，我們和其他人一樣，我們正在密切關注，並將在需要的地方進行調整，但最重要的是，繼續為我們的客戶提供價值。

What percent exposure of your purchases or sales, however you want to talk about it, do you have to China right now?

不管您怎麼談論，您現在在中國的採購或銷售佔比是多少？

The percentage of our own imports from China --

我們從中國進口的百分比--

I'm talking about total, like from the brand.

我談論的是總體，例如從品牌角度而言。

Sam, I don't have that number. I would say it's less than 50% because the majority of the athletic product is coming out of countries other than China. And I would say on the nonathletic side, it's probably 60-40 in China. But as you put it all together, it will be less than 50%.

山姆，我沒有這個號碼。我認為這個比例應該不到 50%，因為大多數運動產品都來自中國以外的國家。而我想說，從非體育方面來說，中國的比例大概是60%比40%。但當你把它們加在一起時，它將小於 50%。

Congratulations. Carl, we're going to miss you.

恭喜。卡爾，我們會想念你的。

Jim Chartier, Monness Crespi Hardt.

吉姆·查蒂爾、蒙內斯克雷斯皮·哈特。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So it looks like SG&A is coming down about $5 million from where it had it previously. In addition to the Rogan synergies and some advertising savings, what are the other key components of that?

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。因此看起來銷售、一般及行政開支比之前減少了約 500 萬美元。除了 Rogan 協同效應和一些廣告節省之外，其他關鍵因素是什麼？

Hey, Jim. It's Patrick Edwards. You're spot on the spot on the synergy concepts and you're spot on, on the digital-first marketing strategy, the flexibility that it brings. Those are the two and really only variables that we were able to press on in the quarter in order to do that expense management, synergy capture to bring our EPS in line with our expectations.

嘿，吉姆。我是派崔克‧愛德華茲。您對協同概念的理解非常準確，您對數位優先行銷策略以及其帶來的靈活性的理解也非常準確。為了進行費用管理、實現綜效，使我們的每股盈餘符合我們的預期，這兩個也是我們本季能夠堅持的唯一變數。

And that's the same component for fourth quarter. Any SG&A savings in fourth quarter would be those two components as well?

這與第四季的情況相同。第四季的銷售、一般及行政開支節省也包括這兩個部分嗎？

Sure, Jim. In the fourth quarter, obviously, there's a wide range on sales, plus or minus $30 million, I believe. So we are able to manage those two levers reasonably well, especially the advertising spend. When demand is there, we're going to ramp that up. And if we see weak demand during nonevent periods, like we did this quarter, we'll be less in the market with our advertising.

當然，吉姆。顯然，第四季的銷售額變化幅度很大，我認為上下浮動 3,000 萬美元。因此，我們能夠合理地管理這兩個槓桿，尤其是廣告支出。當有需求時，我們就會加大力度。如果我們看到非事件時期需求疲軟，就像本季的情況一樣，我們就會減少在市場上投放的廣告。

Okay. And then in terms of the rebanner opportunity, how many stores fit the Shoe Station profile from a demographic and store size standpoint?

好的。那麼，就重新推廣橫幅的機會而言，從人口統計和商店規模的角度來看，有多少商店符合 Shoe Station 的形象？

Hey, Jim. It's Mark. We don't know how wide the legs to the strategy go yet. We know it's resonating across the South, and now we're going to push that limit further into these new states further and further where the brand is not known. The next 25 stores that we complete in the first half of next year are going to help us answer that question.

嘿，吉姆。是馬克。我們還不知道該戰略能發揮多大的作用。我們知道這個品牌在南方引起了共鳴，現在我們要把這個限制進一步擴大到這些新州，這些州這個品牌還不為人所知。我們明年上半年即將開業的 25 家門市將幫助我們回答這個問題。

I can give you one thing. We're very confident that we're going to have over 100 Shoe Station stores near term and ahead of what we previously disclosed as a 2028 objective. The rebannering is rapidly accelerating that expectation. And as we get into guidance next year, we'll be able to be far more explicit when we get into these new states.

我可以給你一件事。我們非常有信心，我們將在近期擁有超過 100 家 Shoe Station 商店，並提前實現我們先前披露的 2028 年目標。此次重新定位正快速加速這一預期。當我們明年開始製定指導方針時，我們將能夠在進入這些新狀態時更加明確。

But we see the opportunity is significant. We see the opportunity has potential to go beyond just Alabama and Mississippi profitably. And we're going to learn by early next year if this thing has legs to go beyond those core markets into new places like Kentucky, the Carolinas, Atlanta and even further beyond that. We don't have those answers yet, but we're excited with what it is delivering so far.

但我們看到這個機會是巨大的。我們認為這一機會的獲利潛力不僅限於阿拉巴馬州和密西西比州。到明年年初，我們將知道這項業務是否能夠超越這些核心市場，進入肯塔基州、卡羅來納州、亞特蘭大等新地區，甚至更遠的地方。我們還沒有答案，但我們對目前的成果感到興奮。

Great. Thank you. And Carl, best of luck to you.

偉大的。謝謝。卡爾，祝你好運。

At this time, there are no other questions. So I will hand the call back over to Steve Alexander for closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題。因此，我將把電話交還給史蒂夫·亞歷山大，讓他作最後發言。

Thanks for joining the call today. We're available all day to have any follow-up questions, and I'd like to quickly hand it over to Mark as well.

感謝您今天的電話會議。我們全天都可以回答任何後續問題，我也想很快將其交給馬克。

As we wrap up 2024, I just want to take a moment to wish all of you, your families, a happy holiday. I hope you have a safe and enjoyable time ahead. And we thank you so much for your time spent getting to know Shoe Carnival, spending time with us in person in NDRs on the road or wherever we may have joined you. It's just been a call. Best wishes from Shoe Carnival to all of you.

在 2024 年即將結束之際，我只想花點時間祝大家和你們的家人節日快樂。祝您未來生活安全愉快。我們非常感謝您花時間了解 Shoe Carnival，在路上的 NDR 中或在我們可能加入您的任何地方與我們共度時光。這只是一通電話。鞋子嘉年華向大家致以最美好的祝福。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。