使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the SCI fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加SCI 2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。
I would now like to turn the conference over to SCI management. Please go ahead.
現在我想把會議交給SCI管理階層。請繼續。
Trey Bocage - Assistant Vice President, Treasury and Investor Relations
Trey Bocage - Assistant Vice President, Treasury and Investor Relations
Good morning. This is Trey Bocage. AVP of Treasury and Investor Relations. I'd like to welcome everyone to our fourth quarter earnings call. We will have some prepared remarks about the quarter from Tom and Eric in just a minute. But before that, let me go over our Safe Harbor Language.
早安.這是特雷·博卡奇。財務及投資者關係副總裁。歡迎各位參加我們第四季財報電話會議。稍後湯姆和埃里克將就本季發表一些準備好的演講。但在此之前,讓我先回顧一下我們的安全港條款。
Any comments made by our management team that state our plans, beliefs, expectations or projections for the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the SEC that are available on our website.
我們的管理團隊發表的任何關於未來計劃、信念、期望或預測的評論都是前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中設想的結果有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於我們在盈利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中列明的因素,這些文件可在我們的網站上查閱。
Today, we might also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the tables at the end of our earnings release and on our website.
今天,我們可能也會討論一些非GAAP財務指標。這些措施的核對情況可以在我們獲利報告末尾的表格以及我們的網站上找到。
I will now turn the call over to Tom Ryan, Chairman and CEO.
現在我將把電話交給董事長兼執行長湯姆·瑞安。
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Trey. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on the call. This morning, I'm going to begin my remarks with some high-level color on our business performance for the quarter, then provide some greater detail around our funeral and cemetery results. I will then close with some thoughts about our 2026 business and financial outlook.
謝謝你,特雷。大家好,感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。今天上午,我將首先概述我們本季的業務表現,然後再詳細介紹我們的殯葬和墓地業務業績。最後,我將談談我們對 2026 年業務和財務前景的一些看法。
For the fourth quarter, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $1.14 and which was an 8% increase compared to $1.06 in the prior year. We saw moderate increases in revenues and gross profit in both the funeral and cemetery segments driven by strength in comparable and noncomparable operations as well as slightly lower adjusted corporate, general and administrative expense which, when combined, resulted in $0.04 of earnings per share growth from operating income.
第四季度,我們調整後的每股收益為 1.14 美元,比去年同期的 1.06 美元成長了 8%。殯葬和墓地業務的收入和毛利均出現溫和增長,這主要得益於可比和非可比業務的強勁增長,以及調整後的公司、一般及行政費用略有下降。這兩項因素共同作用,使營業收入每股收益成長了 0.04 美元。
Below the line, the favorable impact of a lower share count contributed an additional $0.04 of earnings per share growth. For the year, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $3.85, which was a 9% increase compared to $3.53 in the prior year. We saw solid increases in revenue, gross profit and comparable margin percentages in both the funeral and cemetery segments contributing $0.26 to adjusted earnings per share growth from operating income.
在股價下跌的情況下,流通股數量減少的有利影響,使每股盈餘額外增加了 0.04 美元。本年度,我們調整後的每股收益為 3.85 美元,比去年的 3.53 美元增加了 9%。殯葬和墓地業務的收入、毛利和可比利潤率均實現了穩健增長,營業收入為調整後每股收益增長貢獻了 0.26 美元。
Below the line, the favorable impact of a lower share count and slightly lower interest expense was somewhat negated by a higher effective tax rate, resulting in a net $0.06 favorable impact on earnings per share growth for the year. If the effective tax rate had remained constant, we would have had an additional $0.07 in earnings per share for the year resulting in $3.92 or 11% earnings per share growth over the prior year.
在實際層面上,較低的股份數量和略低的利息支出帶來的有利影響被較高的實際稅率在一定程度上抵消,導致當年每股收益增長淨有利影響為 0.06 美元。如果實際稅率保持不變,我們當年的每股盈餘將增加 0.07 美元,每股盈餘將比上一年增長 3.92 美元或 11%。
Now let's take a deeper look into the funeral results for the quarter. Total comparable funeral revenues increased $3 million or just less than 1% over the prior year quarter as growth in core and non-funeral home revenue was somewhat negated by lower core general agency revenue. Comparable core funeral revenue increased by $6 million or just more than 1%, primarily due to a healthy 3.2% growth in the core average revenue per service.
現在讓我們更深入地了解本季的殯葬業績。殯葬業總收入較上年同期增加 300 萬美元,增幅略低於 1%,核心及非殯儀館收入的成長被核心總代理收入的下降部分抵消。可比核心殯葬收入增加了 600 萬美元,增幅略高於 1%,這主要是由於每次服務的核心平均收入實現了 3.2% 的健康增長。
This core average growth was achieved despite a modest increase of 30 basis points in the core commission rate. The favorable impact from the average revenue per service growth was muted by a 1.9% decrease in core funeral services performed for the quarter. For the full year 2025, comparable funeral volume declined less than 1% as we believe the impact of the COVID pull-forward effect continues to diminish.
儘管核心佣金率小幅上漲了 30 個基點,但仍實現了核心平均成長。雖然平均每次服務收入成長帶來的有利影響被本季核心殯葬服務下降 1.9% 所抵消。預計到 2025 年全年,可比喪葬量將下降不到 1%,因為我們認為 COVID 疫情提前結束的影響將繼續減弱。
Non-funeral home revenue increased by $3 million primarily due to a more than 11% increase in the average revenue per service. We expect this impressive growth in the average revenue per service to continue as older preneed contracts that are maturing out of our backlog have higher cumulative trust earnings and more recent preneed contracts written will mature with higher value in the backlog due to our operational decision to no longer deliver preneed merchandise at the time of sale.
非殯儀館收入增加了 300 萬美元,主要是由於每次服務的平均收入增長超過 11%。我們預計,隨著較早的預付合約從我們的積壓訂單中到期,累計信託收益更高,以及由於我們不再在銷售時交付預付商品的營運決策,最近簽訂的預付合約到期時積壓訂單價值更高,每項服務的平均收入將繼續保持這一令人矚目的增長。
Non-funeral home preneed sales revenue increased over $2 million or more than 11%, as increased sales production with a higher percentage underwritten on insurance-funded preneed contracts generated more than an $8 million increase in general agency revenue. This was partially offset by a $6 million reduction in revenue recognized from merchandise deliveries in the prior year quarter.
非殯儀館預售銷售收入成長超過 200 萬美元,增幅超過 11%,原因是保險公司承保的預售合約比例增加,導致一般代理商收入成長超過 800 萬美元。但這部分被上年同期商品交付收入減少 600 萬美元所抵銷。
Core general agency and other revenue declined by $8 million or almost 13%, primarily due to a lower general agency commission rate versus the prior year quarter that was impacted by changes in product mix and higher cancellations resulting from the impact of our insurance partner transition. We believe the general agency commission rate to be stabilized now in the mid-30s percentage range moving forward.
核心總代理和其他收入下降了 800 萬美元,降幅近 13%,主要原因是總代理佣金率較上年同期有所下降,而去年同期又受到產品組合變化和保險合作夥伴過渡影響導致的保單取消率上升的影響。我們認為,一般代理佣金率目前已穩定在 30% 左右,並將持續走高。
Funeral gross profit declined by almost $4 million, while the gross profit percentage declined by 70 basis points to just about 21%. A modest increase in revenue was more than offset by a $5 million increase in recognized selling compensation costs. While the cash rate expended for selling costs was flat versus the prior year, recognized selling costs increased for both the core and non-funeral home segments. For core, we have shifted our sales counselor compensation to more fixed versus variable, resulting in less being deferred for preneed trust sales production.
喪葬業務毛利下降了近 400 萬美元,毛利率下降了 70 個基點,至僅約 21%。收入的少量增長被確認的銷售薪酬成本增加 500 萬美元所抵消。雖然銷售成本的現金支出率與去年持平,但核心業務和非殯儀館業務的已確認銷售成本均有所增加。對於核心業務,我們已將銷售顧問的薪酬從浮動薪酬改為固定薪酬,導致用於預付信託銷售業績的遞延薪酬減少。
On the SCI Direct front, our conversion from trust-funded products to insurance-funded products compels the immediate recognition of the general agency commission and the related selling costs. This has the effect of replacing high-margin merchandise revenues in the prior year with lower margin general agency commissions, therefore, putting downward pressure on SCI Direct's margins as we compare to the prior periods.
在 SCI Direct 方面,我們從信託基金產品轉向保險基金產品,這迫使我們立即確認一般代理佣金和相關的銷售成本。這相當於以利潤率較低的一般代理佣金取代了上一年利潤率較高的商品收入,因此,與前期相比,這將對 SCI Direct 的利潤率造成下行壓力。
The team managed fixed cost growth to less than 1% for the quarter, which had the effect of moderating the impact of the recognized selling cost increase. Preneed sales production increased by $29 million or about 11% over the fourth quarter of 2024. Core preneed funeral sales production increased by $25 million or 12%. Non-funeral home preneed sales production increased by over $4 million or 8% over the prior year quarter.
該團隊將本季的固定成本成長控制在 1% 以下,從而緩解了已確認的銷售成本成長的影響。2024 年第四季預售銷售額增加了 2,900 萬美元,增幅約 11%。核心預付喪葬服務銷售額成長了 2,500 萬美元,增幅達 12%。非殯儀館預售銷售額比去年同期成長超過 400 萬美元,增幅達 8%。
We feel great about our momentum in both channels, now having had the time to work out the kinks of the insurance partner transition in the core segment. And as of the end of 2025, we have now rolled the insurance product into 100% of our SCI Direct locations.
我們對兩個通路的發展動能都感到非常滿意,現在我們已經有時間解決核心業務領域保險夥伴過渡過程中出現的問題。截至 2025 年底,我們已將該保險產品推廣至我們 100% 的 SCI Direct 分店。
Now shifting to cemetery. Comparable cemetery revenue increased by $5 million or about 1%, primarily due to an $8 million increase in other revenue slightly offset by a $3 million decline in core revenue, the core revenue decline was primarily due to a $3 million decline in atneed revenue. Total recognized preneed revenue was essentially flat as a $6 million increase in preneed merchandise and service revenue was offset by a $6 million decline in recognized preneed property revenue.
現在轉移到墓地。可比墓地收入增加了 500 萬美元,約佔 1%,這主要是由於其他收入增加了 800 萬美元,但核心收入減少了 300 萬美元,這在一定程度上抵消了其他收入的增長。核心收入的下降主要是因為臨時收入減少了 300 萬美元。已確認的預付喪葬收入總額基本持平,因為預付喪葬商品和服務收入增加了 600 萬美元,但已確認的預付喪葬財產收入減少了 600 萬美元,兩者相互抵消。
Preneed merchandise and service sales production was up $15 million over the prior year number, growing the preneed sales backlog by over $9 million. Other revenue was higher by $8 million compared to the prior year quarter primarily from an increase in Endowment Care Trust Fund income. Comparable preneed cemetery sales production increased by $8 million or about 2%.
預售商品和服務銷售額比去年同期成長了 1,500 萬美元,預售訂單積壓增加了 900 多萬美元。其他收入比去年同期增加了 800 萬美元,主要原因是捐贈基金收入增加。可比預售墓地銷售額增加了 800 萬美元,增幅約 2%。
Core sales accounted for a $13 million sales production increase powered by impressive velocity growth, which was slightly offset by a $5 million decline in large property sales, which was comparing against a very strong prior year large property sale quarter. For the full year 2025, preneed cemetery sales production grew by about 4%. We feel very good about the momentum our team carries into 2026.
核心銷售額增長了 1300 萬美元,這主要得益於銷售速度的顯著增長,但大宗房產銷售額下降了 500 萬美元,略微抵消了這一增長。而上一年同期的大宗房產銷售則非常強勁。2025 年全年,預售墓地銷售額成長了約 4%。我們對團隊在2026年保持的良好勢頭感到非常樂觀。
Cemetery gross profit in the quarter grew by $5 million or about 3% and the gross profit percentage increased by 70 basis points, generating an operating margin percentage over 36%. While recognized revenue growth was 1%, high-margin trust income was slightly offset by lesser margin core revenue declines. And when combined with our team managing fixed cost growth slightly higher than 1%, this resulted in gross profit growth and margin percentage expansion.
本季墓園毛利成長了 500 萬美元,增幅約 3%,毛利率提高了 70 個基點,營業利潤率超過 36%。雖然確認的收入成長了 1%,但高利潤率的信託收入被利潤率較低的核心收入下降部分抵消。再加上我們團隊將固定成本成長控制在略高於 1% 的水平,最終帶來了毛利成長和毛利率擴張。
Now let's shift to a discussion about our outlook for 2026. As you saw in our earnings release, we provided a normalized earnings per share range of $4.05 to $4.35 for 2026 or a midpoint of $4.20. The 2026 range is 5% to 13% growth with a 9% growth at the midpoint. Within our funeral segment, we expect flat to slightly down funeral volume compared to 2025 with the average revenue per case growing at inflationary rates, slight negated by the effect of a modest cremation mix increase.
現在讓我們來討論一下我們對 2026 年的展望。正如您在我們的獲利報告中所看到的,我們給出了2026年每股收益正常化範圍為4.05美元至4.35美元,中位數為4.20美元。 2026年的成長範圍為5%至13%,中位數為9%。在我們的殯葬業務領域,我們預計 2025 年的殯葬量將與 2025 年持平或略有下降,每例平均收入將以通貨膨脹率增長,但火葬比例的適度增長將略微抵消這一增長。
We do expect to see higher general agency revenue from increased preneed sales production as well as slightly higher selling costs recognized, not cash, from the effect of the shift to a higher percentage of fixed compensation that does not get deferred.
我們預計,由於預售銷售額的增加,一般代理收入將會提高;同時,由於固定補償比例的提高(不予遞延),銷售成本也會略有增加,但不會以現金形式確認。
Finally, we believe we can continue managing fixed costs slightly below inflationary levels with higher productivity, which all in, should drive profit growth for the funeral segment, increasing the gross market percentage by 20 to 60 basis points. We expect preneed funeral production for both the core and SCI Direct businesses to grow in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range.
最後,我們相信,在維持生產力略高於通膨水準的前提下,我們能夠繼續控制固定成本,而所有這些因素加在一起,應該能夠推動殯葬業的利潤成長,使毛市場份額提高 20 至 60 個基點。我們預期核心業務和 SCI Direct 業務的預付喪葬服務產量將以個位數百分比的低至中等水準成長。
For the cemetery segment, we anticipate that we can grow preneed cemetery sales production in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range, resulting in cemetery revenue growth of about 2% to 5%. This, combined with our continued focus on managing inflationary costs should result in impressive segment profit dollar growth, expanding our gross margin percentages by 30 to 60 basis points as compared to 2025.
對於墓地業務,我們預計預售墓地銷售額可以實現個位數百分比的低到中等增長,從而使墓地收入增長約 2% 至 5%。這一點,再加上我們持續專注於控制通膨成本,應該會帶來令人矚目的部門利潤美元成長,與 2025 年相比,我們的毛利率百分比將提高 30 至 60 個基點。
Below the line, we expect a net favorable impact on earnings per share as the positive effect of a lower share count is slightly offset by higher interest expense and a slightly higher tax rate as compared to 2025. For our shareholders, know that we are laser-focused on growing you're a great company as best we can for the long term, growing revenues, leveraging our scale and deploying capital to its highest and best use.
在實際操作中,我們預期每股盈餘將受到淨有利影響,因為與 2025 年相比,較低的股份數量帶來的正面影響將被較高的利息支出和略高的稅率略微抵銷。對於我們的股東,請放心,我們將全力以赴,盡我們所能,長期發展壯大貴公司,提高收入,利用我們的規模優勢,並將資本用於最高效、最恰當的用途。
In conclusion, I want to acknowledge and thank the entire SDI team for their daily commitment to our customers, our communities and to one another. Your dedication is the foundation of our success. Thank you for making a difference every day. With that, operator, I will now turn it over to Eric.
最後,我要感謝 SDI 團隊全體成員每天對我們的客戶、社區以及彼此的付出和奉獻。你們的奉獻精神是我們成功的基石。感謝你每天都在貢獻。好了,操作員,現在我把麥克風交給艾瑞克。
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Tom. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us today. Before I begin, I'm going to continue Tom's last thought and I want to take a moment to really sincerely thank our more than 25,000 associates at SCI across our entire network. Your dedication, your compassion, your commitment to excellence truly make a difference each and every day.
謝謝你,湯姆。大家早安。感謝您今天收看我們的節目。在開始之前,我想繼續湯姆的最後想法,並藉此機會真誠地感謝SCI遍布我們整個網路的25000多名員工。你的奉獻精神、你的同情心、你對卓越的追求,每一天都真正發揮作用。
We are deeply grateful for the care you provide the families we are honored to serve and the positive impact to continue to have and the communities that we are lucky enough to serve.
我們衷心感謝您為我們有幸服務的家庭提供的關懷,以及您為我們能夠繼續產生的積極影響和我們有幸服務的社區所做的貢獻。
So today, I'm going to start by reviewing our cash flow results and capital investments for the fourth quarter followed by a recap of our full year performance in '25. After that, I'll provide an outlook for our 2026 cash flow and capital investments, and I'll conclude with an update on our overall very positive financial position.
今天,我將首先回顧我們第四季的現金流結果和資本投資情況,然後總結我們2025年的全年業績。之後,我將展望我們 2026 年的現金流和資本投資,最後,我將更新我們整體非常積極的財務狀況。
So in the fourth quarter, we generated strong adjusted operating cash flow of $213 million. This exceeded the high end of our most recent guidance range for the quarter. Compared to the prior year, neutralizing for an expected $21 million increase in cash taxes, our adjusted operating cash flow decreased $34 million.
因此,在第四季度,我們產生了強勁的調整後營運現金流,達到 2.13 億美元。這超過了我們最近給出的季度業績預期範圍的上限。與前一年相比,扣除預計增加的 2,100 萬美元現金稅款後,我們調整後的營運現金流量減少了 3,400 萬美元。
So breaking this down a little further, adjusted operating cash flow was positively impacted by higher adjusted operating income of $8 million, highlighting the strength in our underlying funeral and cemetery operations during the quarter. However, cash interest was higher by $24 million, primarily due to the timing of a lower interest in the prior year quarter due to the bond financing and reduction of our drawn bank credit facility that we completed in September of 2024.
進一步分析,調整後的經營現金流受到調整後經營收入增加 800 萬美元的正面影響,凸顯了本季我們殯葬和墓園業務的強勁勢頭。然而,現金利息增加了 2,400 萬美元,這主要是由於上一季利息較低,原因是我們在 2024 年 9 月完成了債券融資和減少了已提取的銀行信貸額度。
Additionally, during the quarter, with a net $18 million use of other working capital, primarily due to the timing of payroll funded in the current year quarter. For the year, for the full year, we finished 2025 with impressive adjusted operating cash flow of $966 million. Compared to 2024, when you exclude cash taxes and special items in both years, 2025 cash provided by operating activities increased an impressive $108 million or 11%.
此外,本季淨使用其他營運資金 1,800 萬美元,主要是由於本年度季度支付工資的時間安排。2025 年全年,我們實現了令人矚目的調整後經營現金流,達到 9.66 億美元。與 2024 年相比,如果排除這兩年的現金稅款和特殊項目,2025 年經營活動產生的現金流量將大幅增加 1.08 億美元,增幅達 11%。
So going back to the fourth quarter, we invested $174 million of capital into our funeral homes and cemeteries, new growth opportunities, business acquisitions and real estate, all of which resulted in our full year capital investment in these categories of $508 million.
回到第四季度,我們向殯儀館和墓地、新的成長機會、業務收購和房地產投資了 1.74 億美元的資金,所有這些使我們全年在這些類別中的資本投資達到了 5.08 億美元。
So in the quarter, we invested $107 million of maintenance capital back into our current businesses with $47 million allocated to high return in cemetery development projects, $51 million into our funeral and cemetery locations and $8 million into our digital strategy and other corporate investments.
因此,本季我們將 1.07 億美元的維護資金重新投入到我們目前的業務中,其中 4700 萬美元分配給了墓地開發項目的高回報項目,5100 萬美元分配給了我們的殯儀館和墓地,800 萬美元分配給了我們的數位化策略和其他公司投資。
For the full year, we invested a total of $328 million in maintenance CapEx, slightly below prior year and ahead of the high end of our guidance range. We dedicated a portion of the strong cash flow from operations during the fourth quarter towards reinvestment into the maintenance of our funeral homes to improve the customer event experience and into cemetery development, creating new tiered options for our customers.
全年,我們在維護資本支出方面總共投入了 3.28 億美元,略低於上年,高於我們預期範圍的上限。我們將第四季度強勁的經營現金流的一部分用於再投資,以改善殯儀館的維護,從而提升客戶體驗,並用於墓地開發,為客戶創造新的分級選擇。
We also invested $31 million of growth capital in the quarter towards the construction of new funeral homes, the expansion of existing funeral homes as well as the purchase of real estate for future new build and expansion opportunities. This brought total 2025 growth capital to $79 million, which is down about $25 million from 2024, which was anticipated.
本季度,我們也投入了 3,100 萬美元的成長資本,用於建造新的殯儀館、擴建現有的殯儀館以及購買房地產,以備未來新建和擴建之需。這使得 2025 年的總成長資本達到 7,900 萬美元,比 2024 年減少了約 2,500 萬美元,這與預期相符。
So turning to acquisitions. We invested $36 million into business acquisitions in the fourth quarter and in locations in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and Canada. In total, we finished the year with $101 million of acquisition spend, which was in the middle of our annual guidance target of $75 million to $125 million. We are really thrilled about these high-quality funeral homes and cemeteries joining our company, and we're happy to welcome all of these new associates to our SCI family.
因此,我們轉向收購。我們在第四季度投資了 3,600 萬美元用於業務收購,投資地點包括北卡羅來納州、亞利桑那州、佛羅裡達州和加拿大。今年我們總共投入了 1.01 億美元用於收購,這在我們年度指導目標 7,500 萬美元至 1.25 億美元的範圍內。我們非常高興這些高品質的殯儀館和墓地加入我們公司,我們也歡迎所有這些新夥伴加入我們的 SCI 大家庭。
So moving on to capital distributions. We returned $107 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter through $59 million of share repurchases and $48 million of dividends. We repurchased just under 1 million shares during the quarter at an average price of about $79 per share. For the year, we returned $645 million to shareholders through $461 million of share repurchases and $184 million of dividends, bringing the number of shares outstanding today to just under 140 million shares.
接下來是資本分配部分。本季度,我們透過5,900萬美元的股票回購和4,800萬美元的股息,向股東返還了1.07億美元的資本。本季我們以每股約 79 美元的平均價格回購了近 100 萬股股票。今年,我們透過 4.61 億美元的股票回購和 1.84 億美元的股息,向股東返還了 6.45 億美元,使目前的流通股數量略低於 1.4 億股。
Subsequent to year-end, we repurchased another 500,000 shares for about a $40 million investment at an average price of about $80 per share. So before we get into our 2026 outlook, I want to make a brief comment about our corporate G&A expense during the quarter. Corporate G&A expense increased $19 million over the prior year quarter to $34 million. This was primarily a result of the prior year quarter having benefited from the reduction of a legal reserve of about $20 million.
年末之後,我們又以每股約 80 美元的平均價格回購了 50 萬股股票,投資額約 4,000 萬美元。在展望 2026 年之前,我想先簡單談談本季的公司一般及行政費用。公司一般及行政費用較上年同期增加 1,900 萬美元,達 3,400 萬美元。這主要是由於上一季受益於法定準備金減少了約 2000 萬美元。
So when you exclude this prior year impact, G&A expenses actually declined about $1 million quarter over quarter. And as we look forward to next year, 2026, I should say, we expect that corporate G&A expense will average around $40 million to $42 million per quarter with, again, a reminder that this rate could be impacted one way or the other by the timing of our accruals related to our short-term and long-term compensation plans.
因此,如果排除上年同期的影響,一般及行政費用實際上環比下降了約 100 萬美元。展望明年,也就是 2026 年,我們預期公司一般及行政費用平均每季約 4,000 萬美元至 4,200 萬美元。再次提醒大家,這一比率可能會受到我們短期和長期薪酬計劃相關應計款項計提時間的影響。
So shifting now to outlook for cash flow. As you saw disclosed in the press release, our 2026 adjusted operating cash flow guidance range consists of a $60 million range from about $1.0 billion to $1.06 billion. Excuse me, the midpoint of this range assumes the following: we expect our cash earnings at the midpoint of our EPS guidance range to grow about $70 million, reflecting growth in our underlying funeral and cemetery operations.
現在轉向現金流展望。正如您在新聞稿中所看到的,我們 2026 年調整後的營運現金流預期範圍為 10 億美元至 10.6 億美元之間,波動幅度為 6,000 萬美元。抱歉,該範圍的中點是基於以下假設:我們預計每股收益指導範圍中點的現金收益將增長約 7000 萬美元,這反映了我們基礎殯葬和墓地業務的增長。
Cash taxes are actually expected to decline by about $20 million, which will result in $120 million of cash taxes as the impact of higher expected earnings on cash taxes are being more than offset by an anticipated tax benefit from an investment in renewal energy projects. As we look beyond 2026, though, we anticipate returning to a normalized cash tax rate of about 24% to 25%, absent additional tax planning strategies or regulatory additional changes.
預計現金稅收實際上將減少約 2000 萬美元,這將導致現金稅收減少 1.2 億美元,因為預期收益增加對現金稅收的影響被可再生能源項目投資帶來的預期稅收優惠所抵消。不過,展望 2026 年以後,如果沒有額外的稅務規劃策略或監管方面的額外變化,我們預計現金稅率將恢復到 24% 至 25% 左右的正常水平。
From an effective tax rate perspective on our income statement, we expect 2026 to really trend in line with 2025, which is about a 25% to 26% effective tax rate. And then lastly, we expect a modest decrease in cash paid for interest this year due to higher average balances being more than offset by lower rates. So now let's talk about capital investment in 2026. We expect maintenance CapEx in 2026 to be about $325 million, which is generally in line and flat with the levels we incurred in 2025.
從損益表上的實際稅率角度來看,我們預期 2026 年的趨勢將與 2025 年基本一致,實際稅率約為 25% 至 26%。最後,我們預計今年支付的利息現金將略有下降,因為較高的平均餘額將被較低的利率所抵銷。現在我們來談談2026年的資本投資。我們預計 2026 年的維護資本支出約為 3.25 億美元,這與 2025 年的支出水準基本持平。
Of this target spend, we expect to invest $135 million into improving our funeral homes and cemeteries, $165 million into cemetery development projects with high rates of return and $25 million into our digital strategy investments and other corporate investments. We expect to invest again an additional $75 million to $125 million towards acquisitions, which is in line with kind of the annual acquisition spend target we've had in the last couple of years.
在這筆目標支出中,我們預計將投入 1.35 億美元用於改善我們的殯儀館和墓地,1.65 億美元用於回報率高的墓地開發項目,2500 萬美元用於我們的數位化策略投資和其他公司投資。我們預計將再次追加投資 7,500 萬美元至 1.25 億美元用於收購,這與我們過去幾年設定的年度收購支出目標基本一致。
In addition to the maintenance CapEx and acquisition spend targets, we also plan to spend roughly $70 million to $80 million of growth capital on a new funeral home construction and real estate opportunities, which together drive low to mid-teen after-tax internal rates of return.
除了維護資本支出和收購支出目標外,我們還計劃投入約 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的成長資本,用於新建殯儀館和房地產投資,這些投資加起來將帶來稅後內部收益率在 10% 到 20% 左右。
Finally, as has been our strategy for many years, we continue -- we plan to continue returning capital to our shareholders through dividends and our share repurchase program in a very consistent and disciplined manner, absent other higher return investment opportunities. So in closing, I'd like to provide some commentary about our current liquidity and our financial position.
最後,正如我們多年來的策略一樣,我們將繼續——在沒有其他更高回報的投資機會的情況下,我們計劃繼續以非常一致和自律的方式透過股息和股票回購計劃向股東返還資本。最後,我想就我們目前的流動性和財務狀況做一些說明。
I'd first like to note that in November, we entered into a new $2.5 billion bank credit facility, which consists of a funded $750 million term loan and a $1.7 billion revolving credit facility both now maturing in November of 2030. This transaction increased our liquidity by over $350 million and our current liquidity today is about $1.7 billion. Our leverage ended 2025 generally in line with prior year-end just above 3.65 times, which is at the lower end of our long-term net debt-to-EBITDA leverage target range of 3.5 to 4 times.
首先我想指出,去年 11 月,我們簽訂了一份新的 25 億美元銀行信貸協議,其中包括一筆 7.5 億美元的定期貸款和一筆 17 億美元的循環信貸,這兩筆貸款和信貸均將於 2030 年 11 月到期。這項交易使我們的流動資金增加了 3.5 億美元以上,目前我們的流動資金約為 17 億美元。截至 2025 年底,我們的槓桿率與上年末基本持平,略高於 3.65 倍,處於我們長期淨負債與 EBITDA 槓桿率目標範圍 3.5 至 4 倍的下限。
So our strong balance sheet, this enhanced liquidity position that I just mentioned, and consistent and predictable cash flows continue to support our capital deployment program, which gives us remarkable flexibility as we enter 2026 to invest opportunistically for the long-term benefit of SCI, our associates and our shareholders.
因此,我們強勁的資產負債表、我剛才提到的增強的流動性狀況以及持續穩定的現金流繼續支持我們的資本部署計劃,這使我們在進入 2026 年時擁有極大的靈活性,可以抓住機會進行投資,從而為 SCI、我們的員工和股東帶來長期利益。
So with that, operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. And so I'm now going to turn it back to you to open the call for questions.
好了,操作員,我們準備好的發言就到此結束了。現在我將把時間交還給你們,請大家提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Joanna Gajuk, Bank of America.
(操作員說明)Joanna Gajuk,美國銀行。
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
So first, on the cemetery preneed sales production, it sounds like you expect low to mid-single-digit growth for '26. So can you kind of break down your assumptions in there for the large sales versus the core? I mean, it sounds like in Q4 large sales decline year over year because of the comp, but it sounds like the number must have been good so if you can give us a sense of the magnitude of the amount for the year for '25? And then what do you assume for '26, I guess?
首先,關於墓地預售銷售額,聽起來您預計 2026 年將實現個位數低到中等的成長。那麼,您能否具體分析一下您針對大宗銷售和核心銷售所做的假設?我的意思是,聽起來第四季度銷售額同比大幅下降是因為同店銷售額較低,但聽起來這個數字應該還不錯,所以您能否讓我們了解一下2025年全年的銷售額規模?那麼,你對2026年有什麼設想呢?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Joanna. Thank you. So on that, you're right. In the fourth quarter, we were slightly down comparing against a tougher number. I think for the year, we're slightly up around 2% or so on the large sales, maybe 3% for year over year.
當然可以,喬安娜。謝謝。所以,在這點上,你是對的。第四季度,與更嚴峻的情況相比,我們的業績略有下滑。我認為今年以來,我們的大宗銷售額略微增長了 2% 左右,同比增長可能達到 3%。
And as we think about next year, I'd tell you, I feel very confident about the momentum we carry into 2026. We feel really good about our start and both on the large sale and on the core sales.
展望明年,我可以告訴大家,我對我們延續到 2026 年的勢頭非常有信心。我們對目前的開局非常滿意,無論是大宗銷售還是核心銷售都取得了不錯的成績。
So I think, again, as you think about large sales, it's always really hard to predict, as you can imagine. But think of that as being slightly lower, so maybe a 2% to 3% increase there and then maybe a more robust increase as you think about the core customer. But as you well know, large sales are tough to predict. It could be -- that's the piece that can be a little bit volatile to the upside. And in times of stress may be something that isn't there.
所以我覺得,再說一遍,當你考慮大額銷售時,總是很難預測,你可以想像。但你可以把這個數字想像成略低一些,例如成長 2% 到 3%,然後考慮到核心客戶,成長幅度可能會更大一些。但正如您所知,大額銷售額很難預測。有可能-這部分價格可能會有上漲的波動。而在壓力大的時候,某些東西可能就不存在了。
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
If I may, in the, I guess, current period, any indications, how things are tracking so far this year, specifically in your broad field location and maybe elsewhere, if you can comment any disruption to the sales process and such because of the -- some winter storms in some of the markets.
如果可以的話,我想,就目前的情況而言,能否提供一些跡象,說明今年到目前為止,特別是您所在的廣闊領域以及其他地方的情況,例如,由於一些市場的冬季風暴,銷售過程是否受到了乾擾等等。
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, we continue to see very positive trends on both preneed cemetery sales and on funeral sales. We've had a real focus. Our sales team is really focused around three things this year, and this plays a little bit into something we've talked about. We've shifted more compensation to fix from variable that we talked a little bit about in my comments. And that was a strategic decision to focus on people power, focus on retention of our key employees by giving them the stability of that higher guaranteed pay.
是的,我們持續看到預售墓地和殯葬服務銷售都呈現非常正面的趨勢。我們一直非常重視這一點。今年我們的銷售團隊主要專注於三件事,這與我們之前討論過的一些事情也有一定關係。我們已經將更多補償金從浮動補償金轉向固定補償金,這一點我在之前的評論中稍微提到過。這是一個策略決策,旨在集中精力於人才,透過提供更高的保障性薪酬來留住我們的關鍵員工。
So the four things we're working on are people power are: call it, people retention, we believe if we can increase the number of preneed seminars that are out there, it's going to increase the number of good leads. And then once we have those leads, a real focus on the lead to sale rate, which is really the conversion of the leads. And then finally, really focused big time on large sales, making sure we have the inventory, making sure that we've the presentations right, that we're finding people that could be customers in this category. So those four things really drive our sales, and we're laser-focused. Jay has got everybody laser-focused on those things, and we're seeing great results.
所以,我們正在努力的四件事是:利用人力,也就是提高人員留任率。我們相信,如果我們能夠增加預售研討會的數量,就能增加優質潛在客戶的數量。一旦我們有了這些銷售線索,就要真正專注於銷售線索轉換率,也就是銷售線索的轉換率。最後,我們真正把重心放在了大宗銷售上,確保我們有足夠的庫存,確保我們的展示方式正確,確保我們能找到這個類別中的潛在客戶。所以這四件事真正推動了我們的銷售,我們對此高度重視。Jay讓每個人都全神貫注於這些事情,我們看到了很好的結果。
We're seeing both at the high end and at the core level on funeral and cemetery.
我們在殯葬和墓地的高端市場和普通市場都看到了這種情況。
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
Any color on Rose Hill activities so far?
目前羅斯山的活動有進展嗎?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, again, I don't want to give percentages, but as you think about January, two things to keep in mind. One is funeral volume last year was pretty strong. So we're comparing against a pretty tough number. We've not seen -- it's been a bit sluggish when you think about volume. But on the sales side, we're seeing tremendous out-of-the-gate results, both on funeral and cemetery, particularly cemetery.
嗯,我不想給出具體的百分比,但是當你考慮一月份的事情時,有兩件事需要記住。一是去年的喪葬數量相當可觀。所以我們是在和一個相當高的標準比較。我們沒有看到——從成交量來看,市場一直有些低迷。但在銷售方面,我們看到了巨大的開局成果,無論是殯葬服務還是墓地,尤其是墓地。
But again, one month is not a year make. So we're excited about it. We love -- I think the team is focused on the right things, and we feel very good about our opportunities for 2026.
但話說回來,一個月的時間並不能代表一年的時間。所以我們對此感到很興奮。我們很喜歡——我認為團隊專注於正確的事情,我們對 2026 年的機會感到非常樂觀。
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
Joanna Gajuk - Analyst
First case, last one, I guess, staying on the cemetery side. Can you talk a little bit more about the opportunities to grow cementery for cremation customers. So you noted the shift to cremation is slowing down, but it's 65% of services are cremations. And I guess you kind of talk last time about opportunities to grow cemetery, I guess, sales for the cremation customers. So can you give us an update of where things there on kind of what are your goals for this year?
我想,第一個案子,也是最後一個案子,都發生在墓園那邊。能否再詳細談談為火葬顧客提供墓地服務的發展機會?您注意到轉向火葬的趨勢正在放緩,但目前仍有 65% 的服務是火葬。我想你上次也談到了發展墓地業務的機會,我想,也就是為火葬客戶提供的銷售額。那麼,您能否向我們介紹目前的情況,以及您今年的目標是什麼?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Joanna. We actually have piloted in a few markets now in the process of rolling out to more a specific focus on that cremation consumer. And some of that is putting videos into our locations that can show the opportunities to the cremation customer and just making it more visible to our visitors and to the clients that we're serving.
當然可以,喬安娜。我們目前已經在幾個市場進行了試點,正在逐步推廣,並更加專注於火葬消費者。其中一部分工作是在我們的場所播放視頻,向火葬客戶展示各種機會,並讓我們的訪客和客戶更容易看到這些機會。
So, yes, we're doing a lot of things as it relates to media and the like to create that awareness and hopefully drive some opportunities in that market. I'd say early days, we feel very good about it. And it's going to take a while to roll it out to the entire network, but we're in the beginnings of doing that now and are excited about the results to come.
所以,是的,我們正在媒體等方面做很多事情來提高人們的意識,並希望能夠在這個市場中創造一些機會。我覺得現在還處於早期階段,但我們對此感覺非常好。將其推廣到整個網路還需要一段時間,但我們現在正處於起步階段,並對即將到來的結果感到興奮。
Operator
Operator
AJ Rice, UBS.
AJ Rice,瑞銀集團。
AJ Rice - Analyst
AJ Rice - Analyst
First of all, just on the comments that Eric made on G&A. You explained the 4Q's impact. But I think your 4Q of '24, the comp. But 4Q of '25, you're only at about $34 million. I think we had been thinking being more like $38 million to $40 million based on the third quarter call.
首先,僅就 Eric 在 G&A 上發表的評論而言。你解釋了第四季的影響。但我認為你的 2024 年第四季度,比較。但到 2025 年第四季度,你們的業績只有大約 3,400 萬美元。根據第三季財報電話會議的情況,我們之前預計的金額應該在 3,800 萬美元到 4,000 萬美元之間。
What drove the better performance on G&A?
是什麼因素推動了一般及行政費用的良好表現?
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Two things, really, A.J. The first one is that we have short-term and long-term ICP accruals, and this is primarily a long-term situation, an LTIP situation. And just to remind you, we have some performance units that get compared to the S&P MidCap 400. And that's going to move quarter to quarter, which is what I was trying to say during my conference call remarks. Sometimes you have a $2 million, $3 million, $4 million headwind and sometimes you have a $2 million, $3 million, $4 million tailwind. And that's what occurred during the fourth quarter.
A.J.,其實有兩件事。第一件事是我們有短期和長期 ICP 累積,而這主要是一種長期情況,一種 LTIP 情況。另外提醒一下,我們有一些業績指標是與標普中型股 400 指數進行比較的。這種情況會逐季度變化,這正是我在電話會議中想表達的意思。有時你會面臨 200 萬美元、300 萬美元、400 萬美元的逆風,有時你會面臨 200 萬美元、300 萬美元、400 萬美元的順風。這就是第四季發生的事情。
Absent that kind of volatility on LTIP, you should see a $40-ish, $42 million-ish per quarter G&A expense as we move forward. That's kind of the middle-of-the-road expectations as we move forward. The other thing that can move it that you kind of have seen us talk about in the last few quarters, sometimes you have some positives and negatives related to some of the insurance being self-insured. This primarily could be Workers' Comp, sometimes general liabilities, sometimes auto liability, sometimes even the health care accruals. Generally, those aren't moving as much as we've seen kind of the LTIP accruals move in.
如果沒有長期激勵計劃 (LTIP) 的那種波動,那麼隨著時間的推移,每季度的一般及行政費用應該在 4000 萬美元到 4200 萬美元左右。這算是我們未來發展方向的中等預期。還有一點可能會影響到它,正如我們在過去幾個季度所談到的,那就是某些保險業務的自保有時既有利也有弊。這主要可能是工傷賠償,有時也可能是一般責任險、汽車責任險,甚至有時是醫療保健費用。總的來說,這些資金的流動幅度不如我們看到的長期激勵計畫 (LTIP) 的資金流動幅度那麼大。
But any of those at any point in time can do that, and we'll explain that to you. But in terms of modeling, I think I'm pretty comfortable with that $40 million to $42 million a quarter right now.
但任何一個人在任何時候都有可能做到這一點,我們會向你解釋這一點。但就模型而言,我認為目前每季 4,000 萬至 4,200 萬美元的收入水準相當令人滿意。
AJ Rice - Analyst
AJ Rice - Analyst
Okay. When you think about the changeover toward more insurance, you've got -- you've called out commission normalization and then you also talk about the impact of SCI Direct. Are we pretty much going to have more straightforward going forward? And what are the implications on the commission run rate? It sounds like it's a little lower in the back half of '25%.
好的。當你思考轉向更多保險產品時,你會想到——你已經提到了佣金正常化,然後你也談到了 SCI Direct 的影響。今後情況會變得更直接嗎?那對佣金率有何影響?聽起來好像在 '25' 的後半部稍微低一些。
Do we have to annualize that in the first half of '26 or something else and then SCI Direct going forward from here, it sounds like the restructuring of that is done, and we should have more normalized trends, but I just want to make sure of that.
我們是否需要在 2026 年上半年進行年度化調整,或採取其他措施,然後從現在開始 SCI Direct 的發展?聽起來重組已經完成,我們應該會有更正常的趨勢,但我只是想確認一下。
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, that's correct, A.J. Answering the SCI Direct piece, we are 100% implemented in having the insurance product in those markets. There will still be some trust sales because some people aren't insurable. But I would say over 90% of the sales are going to be insurance and therefore, generate a commission and generate the associated selling costs. So as we think about SCI Direct, it's going to trend in a positive direction year over year and it's been a while since that's happened. So we're excited about it.
是的,沒錯,A.J.。關於SCI Direct的問題,我們已100%在這些市場實施了保險產品。仍會有一些信託資產出售,因為有些人無法投保。但我認為超過 90% 的銷售額將來自保險,因此產生佣金和相關的銷售成本。所以,當我們考慮 SCI Direct 時,它將會逐年朝著正面的方向發展,而這種情況已經很久沒有發生了。所以我們對此感到很興奮。
On the other commission front, as you think about selling costs and you look at the -- what we talked about -- when you looked at funeral, remember, we had 11% preneed sales production growth. So part of our selling cost increase is the fact that we're selling a lot more that's driving that cost up. We also saw a slight bit of transition to a fixed cost plan that I mentioned before as opposed to variable. And so as you think about the trust product that we sell, not the insurance, less is getting deferred and more is getting recognized. No cash increase, just the type of compensation that occurs.
在佣金方面,當你考慮銷售成本,並回顧我們之前討論過的殯葬業務時,請記住,我們的預售銷售額增長了 11%。因此,我們銷售成本增加的部分原因是銷售量大幅成長,推高了成本。我們也看到,正如我之前提到的,成本方案略微從浮動方案過渡到了固定成本方案。因此,當你思考我們銷售的信託產品(而不是保險)時,你會發現被延緩的資金越來越少,而得到確認的資金越來越多。沒有現金成長,只是補償方式改變了。
And yes, I think as you think about SCI Direct, like I said, positive from here as you think about trend wise.
是的,我認為,就 SCI Direct 而言,就像我之前說的,從趨勢上看,前景是積極的。
AJ Rice - Analyst
AJ Rice - Analyst
Okay. And you also called out -- I think this may be the second straight quarter of the improvement in velocity you're seeing in the cemetery production area. Can you just maybe drill down a little bit more about what you're seeing there and what's driving that and what might implications of that be?
好的。而且你還指出——我認為這可能是墓地生產區域速度連續第二季有所提高。您能否更深入地分析一下您觀察到的現象、背後的驅動因素以及可能產生的影響?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think I do a lot of that's back to those four metrics or particularly the first three, having won the aim to try to have higher retention of our good people and getting them quality leads and then really focusing on the training to take that lead and convert it to a sale. And so as I think about our success in being able to do that and focusing on those types of things, we're seeing, again, trends that we really like. And so we are seeing velocity drive our success as we think about the core cemetery sales.
是的。我認為我所做的很多事情都與這四個指標,或者特別是前三個指標有關,我們的目標是努力提高優秀員工的留任率,並為他們提供高品質的銷售線索,然後真正專注於培訓,讓他們能夠抓住這些線索並將其轉化為銷售。所以,當我思考我們能夠做到這一點並專注於這些事情所取得的成功時,我們再次看到了我們非常喜歡的趨勢。因此,當我們考慮核心墓地銷售時,我們看到速度推動了我們的成功。
So I just attribute that to focus. You mentioned the cremation consumer before. We are seeing a higher lift of people, cremation consumers choosing to buy into our cemeteries. So all those cumulatively bode very well as we think about cemetery production going forward.
所以我認為這歸功於專注。你之前提到過火葬消費者。我們看到越來越多的人,尤其是選擇火葬的消費者,選擇購買我們墓園的墓位。因此,所有這些因素加在一起,對於我們展望未來的墓地建設而言,都是非常有利的。
Operator
Operator
Tobey Sommer, Truist.
Tobey Sommer,Truist。
Tobey Sommer - Equity Analyst
Tobey Sommer - Equity Analyst
I was wondering if you could talk about the drivers of lower than inflation expense growth that's pretty impressive, particularly if you think that your ability to achieve that has legs?
我想請您談談是什麼因素促成了低於通膨水準的支出成長,這非常令人印象深刻,特別是如果您認為您能夠持續實現這一目標的話?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Some of the things that are happening within the current year 2025 is our focus on the products that we sell. And the things that we're selling, the types of products we sell, we were buying from. And so our supply chain team, led by Michael Johnson have done a lot of great things as we think about the products that we retail to consumers and how we price those and how, again, where -- what types of products we're buying and selling.
當然。2025 年的一些發展方向是,我們將重點放在我們銷售的產品上。而我們所銷售的商品,我們所銷售的產品類型,都是我們之前從其他地方採購的。因此,在麥可約翰遜的領導下,我們的供應鏈團隊做了很多很棒的事情,我們思考著向消費者零售的產品、如何定價,以及在哪裡購買和銷售哪些類型的產品。
So we've seen on that really on the merchandising cost side, some enhancements as we think about it. The other thing that I think is probably the most powerful and it gets back to kind of labor efficiency, so we utilize -- we empower our operators really to proactively managing staffing levels and giving them the tools to do it as you think about overtime, part-time roles, they're using metrics. They've got daily dashboards. And so what it allows us to do with those labor efficiency metrics is manage that, and then as a team, we're taking best practices and sharing those across the entire portfolio.
所以,從商品銷售成本的角度來看,我們已經看到了一些改進措施。我認為另一項可能最強大的措施是提高勞動效率,所以我們利用——我們賦予我們的操作員主動管理人員配置水平的權力,並為他們提供相應的工具,例如加班、兼職崗位,他們正在使用指標。他們有每日數據看板。因此,它使我們能夠利用這些勞動效率指標進行管理,然後作為一個團隊,我們將最佳實踐分享給整個投資組合。
So think of it that way, and then at the very top, we've got a cross-functional margin improvement committee that's been in place for a number of years now that really focus on dissemination of these best practices. So we think we've got a pretty good grip as we think about, volumes aren't as high as we thought they were. We're going to manage the variable cost, particularly around staffing. So really a testament to our great operations management team and how they're utilizing those tools to manage costs effectively.
所以你可以這樣理解,然後在最高層,我們有一個跨職能的利潤率改進委員會,該委員會已經成立多年,真正專注於傳播這些最佳實踐。所以我們認為我們已經很好地控制住了局面,而且交易量並沒有我們想像的那麼高。我們將控制變動成本,尤其是在人員配備方面。這充分證明了我們優秀的營運管理團隊以及他們如何有效地利用這些工具來控製成本。
Tobey Sommer - Equity Analyst
Tobey Sommer - Equity Analyst
So would you say that you think that this sort of spread could be achieved beyond 2026? Or take it one year at a time at this stage?
那麼,您認為這種規模的擴張在2026年以後還能實現嗎?或是現階段採取一年一年來的方式?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think it's kind of a one year at a time. I do believe that's true, but it kind of gets back to volume, right? If we begin to see volumes ticking up, it becomes a little more complicated as you think about staffing costs. You're going to see some rises in that because, again, these are variable costs. But at the same time, I think it really allows us in the challenging volume periods to manage costs as low as you see us do it.
我覺得應該一年一年來。我相信這是真的,但歸根結底還是音量的問題,對吧?如果銷售量開始上升,考慮到人員配備成本,情況就會變得稍微複雜一些。你會看到這些成本上漲,因為這些都是變動成本。但同時,我認為這確實使我們能夠在業務量大的挑戰時期將成本控制在你們看到的最低水平。
But I'd expect those to get trend back up as volumes begin to increase as we anticipate over the coming years.
但我預計,隨著未來幾年銷量開始成長,這些趨勢將會回升,正如我們預期的那樣。
Tobey Sommer - Equity Analyst
Tobey Sommer - Equity Analyst
If I could sneak one more in from an acquisition perspective, you closed out the year and right down the fairway for your total capital deployed. When you look at the pipeline, is there any change in the composition such that something might be a little bit bigger this year?
如果我能從收購的角度再補充一點,那麼你今年的總投資金額已經達到了預期目標。從管道結構來看,今年的管道組成是否有任何變化,導致某些管道的規模今年可能會更大一些?
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think we're seeing a similar type pipeline, Tobey. I think we're very excited about it. As I've said before, it's generally going to be more of larger independent type transactions that are both funeral and cemetery. And the best that we could do in those situations were places that we already exist and already have local scale. And that's the best of both opportunities for our company as well as those independent funeral homes that are decided to join our company, and we can continue the great service and the way they're treating their consumer in those markets that we are already in and guarantee that really.
托比,我認為我們看到的是類似的人才培育模式。我們對此感到非常興奮。正如我之前所說,這通常更多的是規模較大的獨立交易,既包括殯葬服務也包括墓地服務。在那種情況下,我們所能做的最好的事情就是在我們已經存在且已經具有本地規模的地方開展工作。對於我們公司以及決定加入我們公司的獨立殯儀館來說,這是最好的機會。我們可以繼續提供優質的服務,並保證他們在我們已進入的市場中對待消費者的方式。
But the pipeline is good.
但這條管道狀況良好。
The pipeline is healthy. We're very busy. I think I've been saying that for a couple of quarters now. And I think I'm going to still say the same thing. I think it's pretty good and pretty busy, and we're excited about it.
管道狀況良好。我們非常忙。我想我過去幾個季度一直在這麼說。我想我還是會說同樣的話。我覺得這裡很不錯,生意也很紅火,我們對此感到很興奮。
Operator
Operator
Tomohiko Sano, JPMorgan Chase.
佐野智彥,摩根大通。
Tomohiko Sano - Analyst
Tomohiko Sano - Analyst
This is Tom from JPMorgan. Could you talk about the plans for developing selling premium cemetery inventory and your outlook for recognition rates? And could you talk about how do you view price elasticity as well, please?
我是摩根大通的湯姆。您能否談談開發銷售高端墓地資源的計劃以及您對認購率的預期?能否也談談您如何看待價格彈性?
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
We're going to deploy capital, which is the first part of your question, similar to last year, which our metric right now is about $165 million of very high return on opportunities. As you're describing as you saw Memorial Oaks during your tour we're going to invest in tiered type inventory at each of our cemeteries that are going to give offerings all the way to the higher end in terms of families that want like private estates and such, then you go all the way down to the semiprivate areas, and then you get to some of the initial more lower-tier type offerings. I think that it continues, coupled with our sales force to be the best value opportunity that we can get and the highest return opportunities we can get for that type of capital. In terms of the cemeteries themselves, there's relatively high barriers to entry. We're very lucky to have this 35,000 acres that we had that were built over many, many decades by really the founder of this company over a long period of time where metropolitan areas have grown around these cemeteries, but yet we still have a tremendous amount of capacity in years left within these cemeteries.
我們將投入資金,這是你問題的第一部分,與去年類似,我們目前的指標是約 1.65 億美元的非常高回報機會。正如您在參觀紀念橡樹公墓時所描述的那樣,我們將在每個公墓投資建設分級墓地,從高端的私人莊園等高端墓地,到半私人墓地,再到一些入門級的低端墓地,應有盡有。我認為,結合我們的銷售團隊,這將是我們能夠獲得的最佳價值機會,也是我們能夠獲得的最高回報機會。就墓地本身而言,進入門檻相對較高。我們非常幸運地擁有這 35,000 英畝的土地,這是這家公司的創始人經過幾十年的時間精心打造的。雖然大都市地區已經圍繞著這些墓地發展起來,但我們的墓地仍然擁有巨大的剩餘容量。
What you saw in Memorial Oaks, which Houston has now grown out and surrounded still has many years left, many decades left in terms of inventory.
你在紀念橡樹園看到的景象,休士頓現在已經將其包圍,但就庫存而言,它仍然有很多年、幾十年的時間可以保留。
For those of you on the call have been to Rose Hill, that's a similar situation where L.A. has grown around it and many years left in that. So we're very lucky to have it. We have good barriers to entry. We're going to price it based on the tiering effect and type the value proposition that exists that we've always had.
對於參加電話會議的各位來說,如果你們去過羅斯希爾,那裡的情況與洛杉磯類似,洛杉磯已經圍繞著它發展起來,這種情況還會持續很多年。所以我們很幸運能擁有它。我們設定了良好的准入門檻。我們將根據分級效應來定價,並反映我們一直以來所秉持的價值主張。
We feel that there's a lot of opportunity with a strong cemetery consumer, especially as the demographics over the long term turn our way over a period of time.
我們認為,隨著墓園消費群日益壯大,蘊藏著巨大的商機,尤其是隨著時間的推移,人口結構將逐漸向我們有利的方向轉變。
Tomohiko Sano - Analyst
Tomohiko Sano - Analyst
Very helpful. Just one follow-up on the M&A pipeline in 2026. Could you talk about prioritization for expansion, especially what drove the recent acquisition in locations of North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and Canada? And are you continuing to target these locations or more broader-based in mandate?
很有幫助。2026 年併購專案進度僅需一次跟進。您能否談談擴張的優先事項,特別是最近在北卡羅來納州、亞利桑那州、佛羅裡達州和加拿大進行收購的驅動因素?你們的行動範圍是繼續針對這些地區,還是擴大到更廣泛的地區?
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
No. It's going to continue to be, as I said, we want to be in markets that we already exist in as the first stack ranking because we already have -- we carry the national scale anywhere that we're buying. But when we already have that local scale, it can really make two plus two equal five, so to speak, when we have these larger really nice independents joining our company. So we'll continue to know we have a broad base across the United States. We also have a wonderful business in Canada really from anchored in the west all the way over to the East, especially in Toronto.
不。正如我所說,我們將繼續在我們已經存在的市場中保持第一排名,因為我們已經擁有——無論我們在哪裡採購,我們都能達到全國規模。但是,當我們已經擁有了這種本地規模時,可以說,當這些規模更大、非常優秀的獨立企業加入我們公司時,二加二就真的等於五了。因此,我們將繼續知道我們在美國擁有廣泛的客戶基礎。我們在加拿大也擁有非常成功的業務,業務範圍從西部一直延伸到東部,尤其是在多倫多。
And you'll continue to -- for us to develop very long-term relationships with a valuable pipeline that we have with those relationships and as those individual businesses and their owners and their families kind of raised their hand and are interested in discussing the next step and discussing liquidity event, we have the advantage of having tremendous liquidity and speed and really making it a win-win situation with our independent partners.
而且,我們將繼續與這些合作夥伴建立長期的合作關係,並利用這些寶貴的管道,隨著各個企業及其所有者和家庭主動提出並有興趣討論下一步以及流動性事件,我們擁有巨大的流動性和速度優勢,真正與我們的獨立合作夥伴實現雙贏。
Operator
Operator
Parker Snure, Raymond James.
Parker Snure,Raymond James。
Parker Snure - Equity Analyst
Parker Snure - Equity Analyst
Just wanted to drill down on the GA revenue in the funeral segment a little bit more. With your core preneed funeral production up 12%, but the GA commissions were down just a bit. Maybe just talk us through some of the drivers there. I know there were some comments on the commission rate. I know you previously made some comments on a Flex product that comes in with lower commission, maybe just drill down on some of the dynamics driving that.
我想更深入地了解殯葬業的普通股收入情況。核心預付喪葬業務的業績成長了 12%,但一般事務佣金略有下降。或許您可以跟我們介紹一下那裡的幾位司機。我知道有人對佣金率提出了一些意見。我知道你之前對佣金較低的 Flex 產品發表過一些評論,也許可以深入探討一下導致這種情況發生的一些因素。
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Parker. I'll take that. So as you think about the timing of all this, the fourth quarter of 2024, we're relatively new into the new contract with our new insurance partner. And so at the time, we're really hesitant to talk about what we think the rate is going to be because there are so many factors that play into that. Any kind of new plans going to have new pricing, new learning, new forms, new processes, new rules.
當然可以,帕克。我接受。所以,考慮到這一切發生的時間,2024 年第四季度,我們與新的保險合作夥伴簽訂的新合約還相對較新。因此,目前我們真的不願意談論我們認為利率會是多少,因為有許多因素會影響利率。任何新計劃都會有新的定價、新的學習方式、新的形式、新的流程和新的規則。
So there's just a lot of change management engaging in there.
所以這裡面有很多變革管理方面的工作要做。
So the two things I mentioned on the call, Parker, were product. And so as you think about that, you rightly pointed out that we opened up the flex product in the mid part of 2025 that we didn't offer at the end of '24. So some of this is we're offering a flex product with a dramatically lower commission rate than the traditional insurance. That's a little piece. Another one is kind of what we call early payoffs.
所以,帕克,我在電話裡提到的兩件事都是產品。所以,當你思考這個問題時,你正確地指出,我們在 2025 年年中推出了 flex 產品,而我們在 2024 年底還沒有推出該產品。因此,我們提供的產品具有靈活的費率,遠低於傳統保險的費率。這只是一小塊。另一種情況就是我們所說的早期回報。
You try to predict who's going to sign up for these things and then pay off within a year, with the early payoff rates slightly higher, and that again would drive it down.
你試圖預測誰會報名參加這些活動,然後在一年內支付費用,早期支付率略高,但這又會拉低最終價格。
The other factor is, if someone pays a single pay upfront versus a multi-pay over time, there's different commission rates there. So we're trying to predict how many people are going to buy a single pay, how many people are going to buy a multi-pay. So those are the three things that kind of impacted the product piece. And then the other thing we mentioned was cancellation rate.
另一個因素是,如果有人一次預付全款,而不是分期付款,佣金率也會有所不同。所以我們正在嘗試預測有多少人會購買單次付款,有多少人會購買多次付款。所以,以上三點對產品部分產生了影響。然後我們也提到了取消率。
And again, two things there. One is you've got cancellation rate from the old insurance provider in that business. And we saw an increase of older contracts from the previous supplier that, again, kind of happens from time to time and is it as predictable. And I don't think that's going to continue at those rates.
還有兩點要注意。一是你在這家企業中從之前的保險公司獲得的取消率。我們也發現,來自前供應商的舊合約增加,這種情況時有發生,而且是可以預測的。我認為這種情況不會繼續以這樣的速度發展下去。
And then finally, we're seeing a slightly higher cancellation rate than we used to experience with the previous insurance provider. I would attribute that to, again, the new plan learning. We're learning how what are the points where customers are frustrated with processes, rules, forms. And so I think we'll get better at that as time goes on.
最後,我們發現目前的取消率比之前使用保險公司時略高。我認為這再次歸功於新計劃的實施。我們正在了解客戶在流程、規則、表格方面感到沮喪的點在哪裡。所以我認為隨著時間的推移,我們會在這方面做得越來越好。
So we came out and said, let's look for kind of a mid-30s type of percentage rate going forward. We think that's probably a fair way to think about it as you model '26, '27. Hopefully, we'll get a little better over time at some of these things like cancellation. But we're very comfortable that now we're in a place that we understand it. and we should try to improve from here.
所以我們公開表示,讓我們把未來的利率目標定在 30% 左右。我們認為,在模擬 2026 年和 2027 年的車型時,這可能是合理的思考方式。希望隨著時間的推移,我們在取消預訂等一些方面能夠有所改進。但我們現在對它有了很深的理解,這讓我們感到非常安心。我們應該在此基礎上繼續努力改進。
Parker Snure - Equity Analyst
Parker Snure - Equity Analyst
Okay. Great. That's super helpful. And yes, just a follow-up on that. On the -- it sounds like there was almost like a bad debt accrual for the cancellation rate is maybe if you could just help us like give us a number for the magnitude of that?
好的。偉大的。這太有幫助了。是的,我只是想就此補充一點。關於-聽起來好像取消率導致了大量壞帳累積,您能否幫我們估算一下壞帳的規模?
And is that expected to be a onetime item? Or is that going to be kind of an ongoing accrual that's constantly flowing through the numbers?
而且這預計只是一次性事件嗎?或者說,這將是一個持續累積的過程,不斷地體現在各項數據中?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think it's -- like you said, the cancellation rate experience we're having is a little higher than we thought, which requires us to under -- when you're making estimations to catch up. So maybe think about 200 bps as being the impact of catching up this quarter, which again, we've factored into going forward, what we think about 2026. So as you model, I'd just go back to that kind of mid-30s and that would encompass any catch-up that we think we need to have. And like I said, I hope operationally over time, and I believe this is true, we're going to get better at this because there's typically a reason.
嗯,我覺得──就像你說的,我們遇到的取消率比我們預想的要高一些,這就要求我們在進行估算時要有所調整才能趕上進度。所以,或許可以把 200 個基點看作是本季追趕上來的影響,而我們也已經把這一點考慮進了我們對 2026 年的展望中。所以,在建模時,我會回到30歲中期左右的年齡,這樣就能涵蓋我們認為需要追趕的任何階段。正如我所說,我希望隨著時間的推移,我們在營運方面會越來越好,我相信這是真的,因為通常情況下,事情的發生是有原因的。
And again, this gets back to new product forms, processes, people, us getting used to them. So I expect this over a period of time to get better. It's just the part of change management that's tough. But look, at the end of the day, we've got a better product for our customers. We're generating higher commission rates.
而這又回到了新產品形式、流程、人員以及我們對它們的適應問題。所以我認為隨著時間的推移,情況會好轉。這只是變革管理中最困難的部分。但說到底,我們最終還是為顧客提供了更好的產品。我們正在創造更高的佣金率。
So we're very, very pleased with our partnership and expect it to continue to trend to the positive.
因此,我們對雙方的合作關係非常滿意,並期待這種關係繼續朝著正面的方向發展。
Parker Snure - Equity Analyst
Parker Snure - Equity Analyst
Yes, absolutely. Understood. And then just if I can squeeze in one more. On the Perpetual Care Trust, that was up $8 million year over year. I think for the full year, it's up about $16 million.
是的,絕對的。明白了。如果我能再擠出一個就好了。永久護理信託基金的收益比去年同期增加了 800 萬美元。我認為全年來看,成長了約 1,600 萬美元。
Maybe just help us with what is expected in your guidance for 2026 for Perpetual Care Trust revenue? And maybe just remind us on the accounting treatment of how that portfolio is accounted for?
能否請您告知我們您對2026年永久照護信託收入的預期?或許可以提醒我們該投資組合的會計處理方法?
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Eric Tanzberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. We had a great year across all the trust funds, as you saw Parker, at a 15% return. We normally expect and model kind of about half that, kind of about a 7%-ish type market return in the trust funds. That's true for the Internal Care Funds just like it's true for the MST funds. The Internal Care Fund is really split into two components.
是的。正如你所看到的,帕克,我們所有信託基金今年都取得了非常好的成績,回報率達到了 15%。我們通常預期和模擬的收益大約是這個數字的一半,也就是信託基金大約 7% 左右的市場回報率。內部護理基金的情況也是如此,就像 MST 基金的情況一樣。內部護理基金其實分為兩個部分。
One is a prudent person approach, which is the same 60% equity, 30% fixed income, 10% alternatives type mix that you would expect from that type of portfolio.
一種方法是謹慎之人的策略,即採用與該類型投資組合相同的 60% 股票、30% 固定收益、10% 另類投資的組合。
There's still though a few states in the Internal Care Fund, which don't follow that method and primarily are invested in fixed income securities. When that occurs, when there are gains or losses from those portfolios, that flow through that particular line. The issue was not during the fourth quarter of '25, but in the fourth quarter of '24, we had a liquidation related to a portfolio manager, and that created a $4 million, $5 million, $6 million loss that came through. So it's not that the portfolio looks so much better than last year is that last year was pressured by that particular event in the Internal Care Funds.
不過,國內護理基金中仍有一些州不遵循此方法,主要投資於固定收益證券。當這種情況發生時,當這些投資組合出現收益或損失時,這些收益或損失就會透過該特定線路傳遞。問題不在於 2025 年第四季度,而在於 2024 年第四季度,當時我們與一位投資組合經理進行了清算,造成了 400 萬、500 萬、600 萬美元的損失。所以,並不是說今年的投資組合比去年好很多,而是因為去年受到了內部護理基金那件特殊事件的壓力。
Operator
Operator
Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.
史考特‧施內伯格,奧本海默。
Scott Schneeberger - Analyst
Scott Schneeberger - Analyst
I have probably a total of three questions. I'm going to ask the first two upfront. We heard a lot about the flu in the fourth quarter, certainly carry over into the first quarter. But funeral volumes were pretty light in the fourth quarter. Just kind of curious what you're seeing on the flu front.
我大概總共有三個問題。我先問前兩個問題。第四季我們聽到了很多關於流感的消息,而且影響也延續到了第一季。但第四季的喪葬數量相當少。我只是有點好奇你那邊流感疫情的狀況。
And then the second part of the question is the guide for 2026 on funeral volumes, flat to slightly down. When are we going to see that? I mean that's kind of been the trend, but is there a conservatism in there? Or is that the trend? I was thinking we might be seeing that start to improve a bit.
問題的第二部分是關於 2026 年喪葬數量的預測,預計持平或略有下降。我們什麼時候才能看到呢?我的意思是,這似乎已經成為一種趨勢,但這其中是否蘊含著保守主義呢?還是說這是一種趨勢?我當時覺得這種情況可能會開始有所改善。
So just thoughts on those.
以上僅是我的一些想法。
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
You bet, Scott. So as it relates to flu, you're correct. We did -- you hear about the cases. I think as it relates to creating funeral volume that we're not seeing any of that. We're not hearing any of that.
當然,斯科特。所以就流感而言,你的說法是正確的。確實如此——你會聽到這些案件的報導。我認為就喪葬用品的製作而言,我們還沒有看到任何這方面的變化。我們沒聽到任何相關消息。
And as we think about trends in volume, it's probably good to take a step back for a second. So we know that the COVID impact occurred. We knew that we were going to have the COVID pull-forward effect, and we've modeled that. And we think we've got a little bit of diminishment there, but less year over year.
當我們思考銷售趨勢時,或許該退後一步,冷靜思考一下。所以我們知道新冠疫情的影響確實發生了。我們知道會有新冠疫情帶來的提前爆發效應,我們也對此進行了建模。我們認為這方面略有下降,但較去年同期下降幅度較小。
The other thing just to point out that we don't talk about as much, but you'll recall us talking about it during COVID, was the term excess deaths. And what did that mean? And we said that was kind of the ripple effect of COVID. We saw increases in drug overdose, suicide, traffic fatalities, murders, lack of cancer screenings. And so we couldn't explain this excess volume that has occurred even beyond COVID.
還有一點要指出,我們不太常談論,但你們應該記得我們在新冠疫情期間談論過,那就是「超額死亡」這個術語。那又意味著什麼呢?我們當時就說,這就是新冠疫情帶來的連鎖反應。我們看到藥物過量、自殺、交通事故死亡、謀殺、癌症篩檢不足等情況增加。因此,我們無法解釋即使在新冠疫情之後也出現的這種交易量過剩現象。
And I think as you look at the statistics now, and this is a positive for us as a society, I think goodness, right, drug overdose down, suicide down, traffic fatalities down, murders down, cancer screenings back to levels, and you're seeing deaths from cancer trend down.
我認為,從目前的統計數據來看,這對我們社會來說是一個積極的信號,藥物過量減少、自殺減少、交通事故死亡人數減少、謀殺案減少、癌症篩檢恢復到正常水平,而且癌症死亡人數也呈下降趨勢。
So as you look at the national data and again, it's not perfect, as a country, volumes were down in 2024. Preliminary '25, they're down. So I think what we're going through is a little bit of a trying to normalize out of this strange period. The other thing that we do is we go back and look at the CAGR of the 2019 numbers.
所以,當你查看全國數據時(當然,數據並不完美),作為一個國家,2024 年的銷售量有所下降。2025 年初步結果,他們落後了。所以我覺得我們現在正在經歷的,是努力從這段奇怪的時期中恢復正常。我們也會回顧 2019 年的數據,並查看其複合年增長率 (CAGR)。
So if you go back and look at pre-COVID and you said, let's expect volumes to increase 1% over the next few years. If you do that and look at our current volumes, you'd be very pleased about where we stand. As you think about market share, as you think about demographics, so it's very confusing, and I understand why it is. It's frustrating for us sometimes, too. And look, we're paranoid.
所以,如果你回顧新冠疫情之前的情況,然後說,預計未來幾年銷量將成長 1%。如果你這樣做,再看看我們目前的銷量,你就會對我們目前的處境感到非常滿意。當你考慮市場份額,當你考慮人口統計數據時,這非常令人困惑,我理解為什麼會這樣。有時這也會讓我們感到沮喪。你看,我們有點疑神疑鬼。
We're going to fight for volume for market share.
我們將為銷量和市場份額而戰。
Are there markets we could do better as you think of cremation pricing? Maybe and we're doing that every day and trying to fix it. But I think if you really take a step back and do the compounded impact of '19, you feel very good about the volumes that we're experiencing today. We still believe the demographics of this business, just the pure aging of society is going to have an impact, and it's just challenging to understand exactly when you're going to be able to see that. It isn't being clouded by some of these other trends.
在考慮火葬定價時,我們是否有其他可以做得更好的市場?也許吧,我們每天都在努力解決這個問題。但我認為,如果你真正退後一步,考慮到 2019 年的累積影響,你會對我們今天所經歷的交易量感到非常滿意。我們仍然相信,這個行業的人口結構,特別是社會老化,將會產生影響,只是很難確切地知道何時才能看到這種影響。它並未受到其他一些趨勢的影響。
But again, we're going to manage our costs. We're ready to take care of that.
但是,我們還是要控製成本。我們已準備好處理此事。
On the good news front, so as I think about '26, yes, we think it's probably going to be flat to slightly down. January is a little soft, as we mentioned earlier, but we'd expect it to trend back towards flat. I think as you get out to '27, '28, '29, we expect to see funeral volumes increase is the way our models are working. So we think we're close. We're poised and ready to do it.
好消息是,就2026年而言,我們認為經濟可能會持平或略有下降。正如我們之前提到的,1 月市場表現略顯疲軟,但我們預期市場將趨於穩定。我認為,隨著時間推移到 2027 年、2028 年、2029 年,我們預計葬禮數量將會增加,這是我們的模型預測的結果。所以我們認為我們快要成功了。我們已經做好準備,隨時可以行動。
I'd say on the positive front, on the cemetery side, we're seeing a lot of great things in our sales activity, both in large sales and in core. So still feeling good about '26, volumes could be slightly down to flat, like we said.
就積極的一面而言,在墓地業務方面,我們在銷售活動中看到了許多好兆頭,無論是大宗銷售還是核心銷售。所以,我對 2026 年仍然感覺良好,銷量可能會略微下降到持平,就像我們之前說的那樣。
Scott Schneeberger - Analyst
Scott Schneeberger - Analyst
Great. Appreciate that color, Tom. And then the last question, it kind of dovetails off all that. The guide for 2026 EPS is growth of 5% to 13%. That certainly encompasses your 8% to 12% midpoint kind of in the bottom half of that.
偉大的。湯姆,好好欣賞這顏色。最後一個問題,其實和前面提到的所有內容都密切相關。2026 年每股收益預期成長 5% 至 13%。這當然涵蓋了你所說的 8% 到 12% 的中間值,也就是下半部。
It feels about right, but just curious what has you concerned that, that could put you at the lower end? What are the drivers that could put you up at the higher end or above?
感覺差不多,但我很好奇是什麼讓你擔心這會讓你處於較低的水平?哪些因素能讓你躋身高端或更高水準?
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So I think at the lower end right now, I think we think that would be continued soft funeral volumes. If we saw volumes that came in at down and down, let's say, 200 basis points or something, that's tough to overcome. If we get flat, I think we feel very good about the higher end because, again, what we're seeing in our through the windshield is a lot of sales activity and feeling really, really good about it.
是的。所以我認為,目前來看,葬禮數量可能會繼續保持疲軟態勢。如果成交量持續下降,比如說下降 200 個基點左右,那就很難克服了。如果價格持平,我認為我們對高端市場充滿信心,因為我們從市場回饋來看,銷售活動非常活躍,對此我們感到非常非常樂觀。
I think we feel good about SCI Direct trending the other direction. I think we feel good about our arms around the expense category. So to me, the part that would put you challenging to the lower end would be a continued year-over-year decline in volumes. And again, we're going to do everything we can to push you towards the higher end of that EPS guidance. But that's probably the most difficult one for us to overcome if it's not there.
我認為我們對SCI Direct的趨勢持樂觀態度。我認為我們對支出類別的控制情況比較樂觀。所以在我看來,真正會讓你處於不利地位的因素是銷量持續較去年同期下降。我們再次強調,我們將竭盡全力,爭取實現每股盈餘預期上限的目標。但如果它不存在,這可能是我們最難克服的障礙。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to SCI management for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給SCI管理階層,請他們作閉幕致詞。
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We want to thank everybody for being on the call today. We look forward to speaking to you again soon. I guess, next call will be at the end of April. So everybody be safe out there. Thanks again.
感謝今天所有參加電話會議的人。我們期待盡快再次與您聯繫。我猜下次通話會在四月底。所以大家出門在外一定要注意安全。再次感謝。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。