Service Corporation International (SCI) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the SCI Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎來到 SCI 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to SCI management. Please go ahead.

請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給 SCI 管理層。請繼續。

Thank you. I appreciate that. Good morning. This is Debbie Young. I'm the Director of Investor Relations. Today, we're going to be providing an overview of business results for our fourth quarter as well as some thoughts about our outlook for 2023, but first, as usual, I'll quickly go over the safe harbor language. Any comments made by our management team that state our plans, beliefs, expectations or projections for the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the SEC that are available on our website. During this call, we'll also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in the tables at the end of our earnings release and also on our website under the Investor Webcast Events section.

謝謝。我很感激。早上好。這是黛比楊。我是投資者關係總監。今天，我們將概述第四季度的業務成果以及對 2023 年展望的一些想法，但首先，像往常一樣，我將快速回顧一下安全港語言。我們的管理團隊發表的任何陳述我們對未來的計劃、信念、期望或預測的評論都是前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預期的結果存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於我們的收益發布和我們網站上向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的那些因素。在這次電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施與適當的 GAAP 措施的協調可以在我們的收益發布末尾的表格中找到，也可以在我們網站的“投資者網絡廣播活動”部分下找到。

With that, let me now turn it over to Tom Ryan, our Chairman and CEO, for opening remarks.

有了這個，現在讓我把它交給我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Tom Ryan 來致開幕詞。

Thanks, Debbie. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Before I begin, I want to express my sincere appreciation to our entire SCI family. Your dedication and commitment to helping our client families gain closure in healing through the process of breathing, remembrance and celebration or what makes our company great. And to our preneed teams, your efforts to provide peace of mind for families, securing file arrangements has never been more important than at times like these. Thank you.

謝謝，黛比。大家好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。在開始之前，我想對我們整個 SCI 大家庭表示衷心的感謝。您的奉獻精神和承諾通過呼吸、紀念和慶祝的過程或使我們公司變得偉大的過程幫助我們的客戶家庭獲得治愈。對於我們的急需團隊，您為讓家人安心、確保文件安排的努力從未像現在這樣重要。謝謝。

This morning, I'm going to begin my remarks with some color on our business performance for the year and for the quarter, with some detail around our funeral and cemetery results. I'll then provide some thoughts about our 2023 financial outlook.

今天早上，我將以一些關於我們今年和本季度的業務表現的顏色開始我的評論，並提供一些關於我們的葬禮和墓地結果的細節。然後我將提供一些關於我們 2023 年財務前景的想法。

First, in terms of the full year '22 results, we are proud to report adjusted earnings per share of $3.80, which was at the high end of our most recent guidance range. While this is below our prior year, that was meaningfully impacted by COVID-19. It's an incredible 26% earnings per share compounded annual growth rate from a pre-COVID 2019 base year of $1.90. This accelerated growth was achieved by a combination of the incremental COVID learnings and efficiencies we highlighted at our Investor Day last May by increased volumes driven by excess deaths and the net positive impact from COVID-19.

首先，就 22 年的全年業績而言，我們很自豪地報告調整後每股收益為 3.80 美元，這是我們最近指導範圍的高端。雖然這低於我們去年的水平，但它受到了 COVID-19 的重大影響。與 COVID 2019 之前的基準年 1.90 美元相比，這是令人難以置信的 26% 的每股收益複合年增長率。這種加速增長是通過我們在去年 5 月的投資者日強調的增量 COVID 學習和效率的結合實現的，這是由過度死亡和 COVID-19 的淨積極影響推動的數量增加。

In the funeral segment, volume was down 4.6% for the year, but well exceeded our expectations and represents a 5% compounded annual growth rate from 2019 levels. We continue to be impacted by excess deaths, which we have consistently defined pre and post COVID as deaths above an approximate 0.5% to 1.5% annual compounded growth. These excess deaths are identified officially as COVID, heart disease and diabetes among other causes. Some percentage of these deaths could be the impact -- early impact of baby boomers, SCI-specific market share gains or temporary fluctuations caused directly by COVID or the ripple effects on health from the pandemic lockdown. Funeral sales averages remained strong for the year, and we experienced some inflationary cost increases associated with labor and energy.

在殯葬領域，全年銷量下降 4.6%，但遠超我們的預期，與 2019 年的水平相比，複合年增長率為 5%。我們繼續受到超額死亡的影響，我們一直將 COVID 前後的死亡定義為年復合增長率超過約 0.5% 至 1.5% 的死亡。這些過多的死亡被官方確定為 COVID、心髒病和糖尿病等原因。這些死亡中有一部分可能是影響——嬰兒潮一代的早期影響、SCI 特定市場份額的增加或 COVID 直接引起的暫時波動或大流行封鎖對健康的連鎖反應。這一年的葬禮銷售平均水平保持強勁，我們經歷了一些與勞動力和能源相關的通貨膨脹成本增加。

In the cemetery segment, revenues were down slightly by $39 million or 2% versus the prior year. Preneed recognized revenues grew primarily due to a 2.4% increase in preneed cemetery sales production, which we had anticipated based upon our incremental COVID learnings around sales and marketing, which we touched upon at Investor Day.

在墓地部分，收入與上一年相比略微下降了 3900 萬美元或 2%。 Preneed 確認的收入增長主要是由於 Preneed 墓地銷售產量增長了 2.4%，這是我們根據我們在投資者日談到的關於銷售和營銷的增量 COVID 知識所預期的。

Our preneed cemetery sales production has grown by an impressive 14.5% compounded annual growth rate from 2019. This preneed growth was offset by a 7% decline in atneed revenues as well as the $31 million decline in merchandise and service and endowment care trust fund income.

自 2019 年以來，我們的墓地銷售產量以令人印象深刻的 14.5% 的複合年增長率增長。這一增長被需求收入下降 7% 以及商品和服務以及養老信託基金收入下降 3100 萬美元所抵消。

Timely, meaningful action in our share repurchase program of over $660 million throughout the year more than offset higher interest expense and a slightly higher tax rate. Just as importantly, we delivered these results while at the same time, making strategic investments in our facilities, our cemetery inventory, our digital platforms, our customer experience and engagement, and most importantly, our people.

我們在全年超過 6.6 億美元的股票回購計劃中採取了及時、有意義的行動，足以抵消更高的利息支出和略高的稅率。同樣重要的是，我們在取得這些成果的同時，對我們的設施、我們的墓地庫存、我們的數字平台、我們的客戶體驗和參與度，以及最重要的是我們的員工進行了戰略投資。

For the fourth quarter, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $0.92, which was ahead of our expectations, but down from prior year, which benefited from a significant pandemic impact.

第四季度，我們的調整後每股收益為 0.92 美元，超出了我們的預期，但低於去年同期的水平，去年同期受益於大流行病的重大影響。

Most of this decline in earnings could be attributable to lower operating results on a reduced impact from COVID, some increased inflationary costs as well as a decrease in trust fund income. Below the line, the favorable impact of lower share count offset higher interest expense and a slightly higher tax rate.

收入下降的主要原因可能是 COVID 影響減弱導致經營業績下降、部分通脹成本增加以及信託基金收入減少。在線下，較低股份數量的有利影響抵消了較高的利息支出和略高的稅率。

Now let's take a deeper look into the funeral results for the quarter. Total comparable funeral revenues declined $30 million or about 5% over the prior year quarter, primarily due to a decline in comparable core funeral revenues. Although comparable core funeral volume declined over 6% during the quarter, volumes were higher than we anticipated and about 12% higher than fourth quarter 2019 levels.

現在讓我們更深入地了解本季度的葬禮結果。可比葬禮總收入比去年同期下降 3000 萬美元或約 5%，這主要是由於可比核心葬禮收入下降。儘管本季度可比較的核心葬禮數量下降了 6% 以上，但數量高於我們的預期，比 2019 年第四季度的水平高出約 12%。

Our core average revenue per service grew over the prior year by about 1%. However, that does not reflect the true success in enhanced value being delivered to our customers. The negative effects of currency translation, trust fund income and cremation mix almost equally diluted the 4.6% organic growth rate into the reported 1%.

我們每項服務的核心平均收入比上一年增長了約 1%。然而，這並不能反映我們在為客戶提供更高價值方面的真正成功。貨幣換算、信託基金收入和火葬組合的負面影響幾乎將 4.6% 的有機增長率稀釋為報告的 1%。

From a profit perspective, funeral gross profit decreased about $35 million while the gross profit percentage declined to about 23%. The revenue decline due to the lower volume versus 2021 accounted for the preponderance of the profit decline. We also experienced increased inflationary growth rates in our employee and energy-related costs.

從盈利角度看，殯儀毛利減少約3,500萬元，毛利率下降至約23%。由於銷量低於 2021 年，收入下降是利潤下降的主要原因。我們還經歷了員工和能源相關成本的通脹增長率上升。

Preneed funeral sales production grew over $13 million or more than 5% over the fourth quarter of 2021. Both the core and the SCI Direct channels showed an impressive growth in contract velocity and increased sales areas.

與 2021 年第四季度相比，預製葬禮銷售額增長超過 1300 萬美元或超過 5%。核心渠道和 SCI 直接渠道在合同速度和銷售區域增加方面均表現出令人矚目的增長。

Now shifting to cemetery. Comparable cemetery revenue was essentially flat in the fourth quarter. In terms of breakdown, core revenues increased $3 million compared to the prior year as recognized preneed revenue growth of about $18 million, which absorbed the $6 million merchandise and service trust fund income decline. It was partially offset by a $15 million decline in atneed cemetery revenue. Other revenue consisting primarily of endowment care trust fund income decreased by about $4 million over the prior year quarter due to lower capital gains.

現在轉移到墓地。第四季度可比墓地收入基本持平。就細目而言，核心收入比上一年增加了 300 萬美元，因為確認的預需要收入增長約 1800 萬美元，吸收了 600 萬美元的商品和服務信託基金收入下降。它被需要的墓地收入下降 1500 萬美元部分抵消。由於資本利得減少，主要由養老護理信託基金收入構成的其他收入較上年同期減少約 400 萬美元。

Preneed cemetery sales production declined by $9 million or 3% in the fourth quarter. This was in line with our expectations for the quarter as the comparison quarter was a very strong one more acutely impacted by COVID-19. To better understand the level at which our sales teams are operating, our fourth quarter preneed sales production was about 28% above our 2019 fourth quarter, representing an 8.6% CAGR over the 3-year period.

Preneed 公墓的銷售額在第四季度下降了 900 萬美元或 3%。這符合我們對該季度的預期，因為比較季度是一個非常強勁的季度，受 COVID-19 的影響更為嚴重。為了更好地了解我們的銷售團隊的運營水平，我們第四季度的銷售前產量比 2019 年第四季度高出約 28%，即 3 年期間的複合年增長率為 8.6%。

Cemetery gross profits in the quarter declined by about $18 million and the gross profit percentage dropped to 33% from 37% in the prior year quarter. While revenues were essentially flat, the $11 million decline in high margin trust fund income from both merchandise to service and endowment care trust had a more pronounced effect on profits. Inflationary increases in merchandise, labor and maintenance expenses also put some downward pressure on the gross profit line.

本季度公墓毛利下降約 1800 萬美元，毛利率從去年同期的 37% 降至 33%。雖然收入基本持平，但從商品到服務和養老護理信託的高利潤信託基金收入下降了 1100 萬美元，對利潤的影響更為明顯。商品、人工和維護費用的通貨膨脹增加也對毛利潤線造成一定的下行壓力。

Now let's shift to the discussion about our outlook for 2023. As you saw in our earnings release, we confirmed our 2023 guidance that we introduced to you last quarter of an adjusted earnings per share range of $3.45 to $3.75 or a midpoint of $3.60. I think the easiest way to understand what we're assuming for 2023 is to compare the $3.60 projected midpoint for '23 to the $3.80 earnings per share result from 2022. While the impact from COVID is not an exact science, we do our best to quantify it for you.

現在讓我們轉而討論我們對 2023 年的展望。正如您在我們的收益發布中看到的那樣，我們確認了上個季度向您介紹的 2023 年調整後每股收益範圍為 3.45 美元至 3.75 美元或 3.60 美元的中點。我認為了解我們對 2023 年假設的最簡單方法是將 23 年 3.60 美元的預計中點與 2022 年每股 3.80 美元的收益進行比較。雖然 COVID 的影響不是一門精確的科學，但我們會盡力給你量化。

We believe there is $0.45 per share attributable to COVID in the 2022 earnings per share, about $0.30 in general and call it, $0.15 in cemetery. That results in an adjusted 2022 base of $3.35 per share. It is our belief that in 2023, we can grow off that adjusted base at the high end of our historical earnings per share growth range of 12%. We expect higher recognized preneed cemetery property revenue from completed inventory projects in 2023, and a lower share count from accelerated share repurchases made in 2022 will more than offset the declining impact from COVID and other excess deaths projected in 2023. This $0.40 per share growth results in a $3.75 per share base for 2023.

我們認為，在 2022 年的每股收益中，COVID 每股收益為 0.45 美元，一般約為 0.30 美元，稱之為墓地 0.15 美元。這導致調整後的 2022 年基數為每股 3.35 美元。我們相信，到 2023 年，我們可以在 12% 的歷史每股收益增長范圍的高端，在調整後的基礎上實現增長。我們預計 2023 年已完成的存貨項目將帶來更高的已確認預購墓地財產收入，而 2022 年加速股票回購帶來的份額減少將足以抵消 2023 年 COVID 和其他超額死亡人數的下降影響。每股 0.40 美元的增長結果2023 年每股收益為 3.75 美元。

Finally, increased interest expense is projected to have a $0.25 negative impact on 2023 earnings per share. While we would typically assume interest expense to grow accordingly with increased debt levels of the company growth, we attribute approximately $0.15 of this increase as a unique year-over-year headwind associated with the aggressive Fed hikes impacting our variable rate debt. Removing this $0.15 from the $3.75, we arrived at our $3.60 midpoint. This $3.60 midpoint is a 17% compounded annual growth rate from a pre-pandemic 2019 base of $1.90. As you think about the cadence of the earnings for the year, we expect a meaningful decline in the first quarter as early last year was still being impacted acutely by COVID. However, this decline is anticipated to be mostly offset by year-over-year growth in each of the remaining quarters.

最後，增加的利息支出預計將對 2023 年每股收益產生 0.25 美元的負面影響。雖然我們通常假設利息支出會隨著公司增長的債務水平的增加而相應增長，但我們將這一增長中的大約 0.15 美元歸因於與美聯儲積極加息影響我們的可變利率債務相關的獨特同比逆風。從 3.75 美元中減去這 0.15 美元，我們到達了 3.60 美元的中點。這個 3.60 美元的中點是 2019 年大流行前基數 1.90 美元的 17% 複合年增長率。當您考慮今年的收益節奏時，我們預計第一季度的顯著下降仍然受到 COVID 的嚴重影響，因為去年初。但是，預計這一下降將大部分被其餘每個季度的同比增長所抵消。

Now as you think about some of the segment assumptions for this year, in our funeral segment, we're anticipating a comparable volume decrease in the mid-single-digit percentage range. This reflects the waning effect from COVID and other excess deaths, which should be more pronounced in the first quarter comparison.

現在，當你考慮今年的一些細分假設時，在我們的葬禮領域，我們預計中個位數百分比範圍內的可比數量下降。這反映出 COVID 和其他額外死亡人數的影響正在減弱，這在第一季度的比較中應該更為明顯。

Meanwhile, we expect the average revenue per case to continue to compare favorably, growing in the low single-digit percentage range. We expect to see inflationary pressures lessen, but still be above our recent historical trends in the 3% to 4% range, resulting in funeral margins of around 20%. Finally, we're forecasting pretty funeral sales production growth in the 3% to 5% range for the year.

同時，我們預計每箱平均收入將繼續保持良好的比較，在較低的個位數百分比範圍內增長。我們預計通脹壓力會減輕，但仍高於我們近期 3% 至 4% 的歷史趨勢，導致葬禮利潤率約為 20%。最後，我們預測今年的葬禮銷售產量增長率在 3% 到 5% 之間。

On the cemetery side of the business, cemetery atneed revenues should correlate some of -- with funeral volumes, and we expect them to be down in the mid- to high-single-digit percentage range. For preneed cemetery, given our success in 2022, creating a new higher base and expected lack of COVID-lead activity in 2023, we expect preneed cemetery sales production to grow a little less than historical trends, but still grow in the low single-digit percentage range.

在業務的墓地方面，墓地需要的收入應該與葬禮數量相關聯，我們預計它們將下降到中高個位數百分比範圍內。對於 preneed 墓地，鑑於我們在 2022 年取得的成功，創造了一個新的更高的基數，並且預計 2023 年將缺乏 COVID-lead 活動，我們預計 preneed 墓地銷售產量的增長將略低於歷史趨勢，但仍將以較低的個位數增長百分比範圍。

We have enjoyed tremendous success during 2022 and selling into unconstructed inventory projects, which should continue into early 2023. As these projects are completed throughout the year, this should result in favorable preneed property revenue when compared to 2022. We expect inflationary pressures to lessen around labor and maintenance, but still exceeds recent historical trends and anticipate margins in the low to mid-30% range. As we look to 2024, we would expect to return to normalized earnings per share growth off of this 2023 base.

我們在 2022 年取得了巨大成功，並出售了未建設的存貨項目，這些項目應該會持續到 2023 年初。由於這些項目全年完工，與 2022 年相比，這應該會帶來有利的預需財產收入。我們預計通脹壓力將在 2023 年左右減輕人工和維護，但仍超過最近的歷史趨勢，預計利潤率在 30% 的中低範圍內。展望 2024 年，我們預計將在 2023 年的基礎上恢復正常的每股收益增長。

Finally, I'd like to thank the entire SCI team for all that you do every day for our families, our communities and each other. You are what makes this company great. With that, operator, I'll now turn the call over to Eric Tanzberger.

最後，我要感謝整個 SCI 團隊，感謝你們每天為我們的家庭、社區和彼此所做的一切。你是讓這家公司變得偉大的原因。有了這個，接線員，我現在將電話轉給 Eric Tanzberger。

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everybody. Kind of as Tom ended his remarks, before I address the quarter, I think it's most appropriate to first just say thank you to all of our 25,000-plus field and home office associates. This continued hard work and efforts have produced our impressive financial results that we're talking today. The compassion, dedication you always provide to our client families and our communities is second to none in this industry, and we truly appreciate all that you do.

謝謝，湯姆。大家早上好。有點像湯姆結束他的發言，在我談到這個季度之前，我認為最合適的做法是首先向我們所有 25,000 多名現場和家庭辦公室員工表示感謝。這種持續的努力和努力產生了我們今天所說的令人印象深刻的財務成果。您始終為我們的客戶家庭和我們的社區提供的同情心和奉獻精神在這個行業中是首屈一指的，我們非常感謝您所做的一切。

So with that, in my comments today, I will discuss our cash flow results and capital investments for the quarter and for the full year and provide some brief commentary on our trust funds as well as our corporate G&A expenses. I'll then provide some color on our cash flow and capital investment outlook for 2023 as we move forward, and I'll end the call with some comments about our financial position.

因此，在我今天的評論中，我將討論我們本季度和全年的現金流量結果和資本投資，並對我們的信託基金以及我們的公司 G&A 費用提供一些簡短的評論。然後，我將在我們前進的過程中對我們 2023 年的現金流和資本投資前景提供一些顏色，我將結束電話會議，對我們的財務狀況發表一些評論。

So during the quarter, we generated adjusted operating cash flow of $170 million, which is at the high end of our guidance range we talked about last quarter by $20 million lower than the prior year. This decline was driven by a year-over-year $52 million decline in operating income. And again, that's normalized for gains on divestitures and the impact of estimated legal charges as the prior year was impacted by more pronounced COVID activity.

因此，在本季度，我們產生了 1.7 億美元的調整後經營現金流，處於我們上個季度談到的指導範圍的高端，比上一年低 2000 萬美元。這一下降是由於營業收入同比下降 5200 萬美元。同樣，由於前一年受到更明顯的 COVID 活動的影響，資產剝離的收益和估計的法律費用的影響已經正常化。

Additionally, we had a headwind of $21 million of payroll tax payments in the current quarter related to the deferral of about $42 million of payroll taxes under the CARE Acts. The CARES Act For the full year of 2020. And we've talked about this for a couple of quarters, but with this payment, we have repaid all deferred amounts at this time. Cash interest payments were also higher by about $10 million with higher rates driving the predominance of that, driving about $9 million of the increase and the remainder due to anticipated higher debt balances. Somewhat offsetting these headwinds were $60 million of lower cash taxes primarily due to the lower earnings that we just mentioned. So as we sit back and look at the full year of 2022, we generated $826 million in adjusted operating cash flow, which is almost $200 million or 30% higher than our 2019 pre-COVID results. This enabled us to invest capital to grow our company as well as to enhance shareholder value.

此外，我們在本季度支付了 2100 萬美元的工資稅，這與根據 CARE 法案推遲支付約 4200 萬美元的工資稅有關。 2020 年全年的 CARES 法案。我們已經討論了幾個季度，但是通過這筆付款，我們此時已經償還了所有延期付款。現金利息支付也增加了約 1000 萬美元，利率上升推動了現金利息支付的主導地位，推動了約 900 萬美元的增長，其餘部分是由於預期的更高債務餘額。 6000 萬美元的現金稅減少在一定程度上抵消了這些不利因素，這主要是由於我們剛才提到的收入減少。因此，當我們坐下來回顧 2022 年全年時，我們產生了 8.26 億美元的調整後經營現金流，這比我們 2019 年 COVID 前的結果高出近 2 億美元或 30%。這使我們能夠投資資本來發展我們的公司並提高股東價值。

So speaking of capital investment activity. During the quarter, we invested $330 million into our current businesses first, the newbuild opportunities and accretive acquisitions, in addition to continuing to return capital to our shareholders.

所以說到資本投資活動。在本季度，除了繼續向股東返還資本外，我們首先向現有業務、新建機會和增值收購投資了 3.3 億美元。

Specifically during the quarter, we invested $117 million in total capital expenditures, which is $9 million lower than the prior year. The timing of growth projects drove an $8 million decline in growth capital, while our maintenance CapEx was generally flat at about $109 million. For the full year 2022, as it relates to our maintenance CapEx, we invested about $75 million more in '22 compared to 2021. The breakdown of the $75 million consists of 3 components: first, $25 million of the increase is driven in large part by increased technology infrastructure spend as well as capital improvements to maintain our best-in-class locations. This technology infrastructure spend relates to upgrading the hardware, wireless and network capabilities at all of our funeral homes and cemeteries to accommodate current as well as planned digital enhancements. The bulk of this spend now is now complete, which I'll speak to in a moment when I discuss our 2023 outlook.

特別是在本季度，我們的資本支出總額為 1.17 億美元，比上年減少 900 萬美元。增長項目的時機導致增長資本減少 800 萬美元，而我們的維護資本支出總體持平，約為 1.09 億美元。對於 2022 年全年，與我們的維護資本支出相關，與 2021 年相比，我們在 22 年的投資增加了約 7500 萬美元。7500 萬美元的細分包括 3 個部分：首先，增加的 2500 萬美元在很大程度上是驅動的通過增加技術基礎設施支出以及資本改進來維持我們一流的位置。這項技術基礎設施支出涉及升級我們所有殯儀館和墓地的硬件、無線和網絡功能，以適應當前和計劃中的數字增強功能。現在這筆支出的大部分已經完成，我將在稍後討論我們的 2023 年展望時談到這一點。

Second, $30 million of the increase relates to our cemetery development spend as we continue to replenish our cemetery property inventory that our sales team sold during the COVID pandemic. Finally, the remaining $20 million of the increase relates to our digital investments and corporate spend. And we've really been discussing the spin for several years now and have now broken it out separately from field maintenance capital expenditures to really just give better visibility. This spend relates to ongoing support for and enhancements of existing systems like Salesforce, HMIS+, BG and our 2,000-plus websites, which continue to enable sales growth in our preneed and atneed sales areas as well as new digital initiatives to improve our future customer experiences and field operations. From a growth capital perspective, we deployed $16 million during the quarter towards the purchase of real estate, construction on new facilities and expansion of existing funeral homes and cemeteries across our footprint. This brings the total '22 spend on newbuilds and real estate to about $52 million, which will also help drive additional earnings and cash flow growth for the company with low double-digit to mid-teen higher IRRs.

其次，增加的 3000 萬美元與我們的墓地開發支出有關，因為我們繼續補充我們的銷售團隊在 COVID 大流行期間出售的墓地財產庫存。最後，剩下的 2000 萬美元的增長與我們的數字投資和企業支出有關。我們實際上已經討論了幾年的旋轉，現在已經將其與現場維護資本支出分開，以真正提供更好的可見性。這筆支出與對現有系統（如 Salesforce、HMIS+、BG 和我們的 2,000 多個網站）的持續支持和增強有關，這些系統將繼續促進我們需要和需要的銷售領域的銷售增長，以及新的數字計劃，以改善我們未來的客戶體驗和現場操作。從增長資本的角度來看，我們在本季度部署了 1600 萬美元用於購買房地產、建設新設施以及擴建我們業務範圍內的現有殯儀館和墓地。這使 22 年在新建築和房地產上的總支出達到約 5200 萬美元，這也將有助於為公司帶來額外的收益和現金流增長，內部收益率低至兩位數至中等水平。

On the acquisition front, we're excited today to report that we had a very active fourth quarter, invested almost $90 million in acquiring 3 combination operations and 11 standalone funeral loans in 4 separate transactions, bringing our full year spend to just under $105 million. These businesses acquired during the quarter are located in California, Pennsylvania and Ontario, Canada. We are excited to welcome all of our new associates to the SCI family. Finally, we continue returning capital to shareholders with nearly $116 million to be returned this quarter alone through $42 million of dividends and $74 million toward share repurchases. For the full year, we returned an impressive $821 million to shareholders.

在收購方面，我們今天很高興地報告說，我們有一個非常活躍的第四季度，投資近 9000 萬美元用於收購 3 項合併業務和 4 項獨立交易中的 11 項獨立喪葬貸款，使我們全年的支出略低於 1.05 億美元.本季度收購的這些業務位於加利福尼亞州、賓夕法尼亞州和加拿大安大略省。我們很高興歡迎所有新員工加入 SCI 大家庭。最後，我們繼續向股東返還資本，僅本季度就將通過 4200 萬美元的股息和 7400 萬美元的股票回購返還近 1.16 億美元。全年，我們向股東返還了令人印象深刻的 8.21 億美元。

So let's shift here and talk about our trust funds a little bit. We saw some improvements to the value of our trust assets in the fourth quarter, but again, year-to-date, they declined about $800 million to $5.7 billion in total at year-end. Deposits on the new sales that go into the trust funds and withdrawals from maturities generally offset each other during 2022. So the decline is primarily associated with the change in market value of our trust assets really reflected 11.5% decline in trust performance that we've disclosed year-to-date. As of today, our trust assets have increased by just over $250 million in '23. Keep in mind, this market volatility has a muted effect on our near-term earnings as well as our cash flows. And again, I'd also like to reiterate, we have an accounting white paper and a 1-page summary on preneed in the Investors section of our website, which I think will really help illustrate the cash flows associated with these trust funds.

因此，讓我們轉到這裡談談我們的信託基金。我們在第四季度看到我們的信託資產價值有所改善，但年初至今，它們在年底的總價值下降了約 8 億美元至 57 億美元。進入信託基金的新銷售存款和到期提款通常在 2022 年相互抵消。因此下降主要與我們信託資產市場價值的變化有關，實際上反映了我們信託業績下降 11.5%年初至今披露。截至今天，我們的信託資產在 23 年增加了超過 2.5 億美元。請記住，這種市場波動對我們的近期收益和現金流量影響不大。再一次，我還想重申，我們在我們網站的投資者部分有一份會計白皮書和一份關於 preneed 的一頁摘要，我認為這將真正有助於說明與這些信託基金相關的現金流量。

So now let's talk about corporate G&A. After adjusting for the $64 million pretax estimated charge for certain legal matters, Corporate G&A of $43 million in the current quarter was about $2 million higher than the prior year and slightly higher than our expectation, primarily due to workers' compensation and general liability insurance costs that were a little bit higher than what we expected. As I mentioned on our last call, as we look forward in 2023, we continue to expect corporate G&A to be lower than we experienced in 2022 at approximately $38 million to $40 million per quarter as incentive compensation is expected to be lower than our COVID impact 2022. The actual results within this quarterly range will depend on company performance during the year, which will affect our incentive compensation plans.

那麼現在讓我們談談公司 G&A。在對某些法律事務的 6400 萬美元稅前估計費用進行調整後，本季度 4300 萬美元的公司 G&A 比去年同期高出約 200 萬美元，略高於我們的預期，這主要是由於工傷賠償和一般責任保險費用這比我們預期的要高一點。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們期待 2023 年，我們繼續預計公司 G&A 將低於我們在 2022 年的經歷，每季度約為 3800 萬至 4000 萬美元，因為激勵薪酬預計將低於我們的 COVID 影響2022年，這個季度範圍內的實際結果將取決於公司年內的業績，這將影響我們的激勵薪酬計劃。

So now let's move to a few comments about our cash flow outlook about 2023. In our press release, our guidance for adjusted operating cash flow for full year of '23 is a range of $740 million to $800 million with a midpoint of $770 million. As Tom just mentioned, while we're expecting some nice normalized growth in our businesses in 2023, the headwind from lower expected COVID volumes generally offset this growth and leads to modest growth in 2023 EBITDA.

那麼現在讓我們談談我們對 2023 年現金流量前景的一些評論。在我們的新聞稿中，我們對 23 年全年調整後經營現金流量的指導範圍為 7.4 億美元至 8 億美元，中點為 7.7 億美元。正如湯姆剛才提到的，雖然我們預計我們的業務在 2023 年會出現一些良好的正常化增長，但較低的 COVID 銷量預期帶來的逆風通常抵消了這一增長，並導致 2023 年 EBITDA 的適度增長。

There are a couple of items that I'd like to highlight, though, when thinking about our adjusted cash flow in 2023. First, as we've said previously, we'll have higher interest costs on our floating rate debt. Last quarter, we mentioned it could be a headwind of about $50 million, but I now think it'll be closer to about $55 million, primarily on higher expected rates and somewhat higher balances. Cash tax payments in '23 are anticipated to be about $165 million at the midpoint of our guidance or $15 million lower than 2022 on the lower earnings. And by the way, from an effective tax rate standpoint, we continue to model in the range of 24% to 25% for 2023. From a working capital perspective, we are expecting $20 million to $25 million incremental use of working capital as usage from strong preneed cemetery sales and strong incentive compensation cash payments are partially offset having the no CARES Act payments in '23 that I mentioned before is now behind us. So to look about invested capital in '23, our first investments will be, as usual, back into our businesses. We expect maintenance CapEx will drop from $335 million to $300 million, which is primarily due to the declines in technology infrastructure spend at our field locations that I already mentioned. At the midpoint, investments in our locations make up about $120 million. Cemetery developing CapEx comprises about $130 million and the remaining $50 million is being deployed towards digital investments and corporate needs. In addition to this maintenance CapEx that I just described, we expect to deploy $75 million to $125 million towards acquisitions and roughly $45 million in new funeral home construction and real estate opportunities, which together will drive low to mid-teen after-tax IRRs, which again is well in excess of our cost of capital. We feel we have the financial flexibility and liquidity to continue much of the same successful capital investment strategy in '23, as you've seen us do over the past few years. We will continue to follow a disciplined and balanced approach investing to the highest relative value for our shareholders. And of course, this strategy is predicated on our stable free cash flow, our strong liquidity as well as our favorable debt maturity profile.

不過，在考慮我們 2023 年調整後的現金流量時，我想強調幾個項目。首先，正如我們之前所說，我們的浮動利率債務的利息成本將更高。上個季度，我們提到這可能是大約 5000 萬美元的逆風，但我現在認為它會接近 5500 萬美元左右，主要是由於預期利率更高和余額更高。預計 23 年的現金納稅額在我們指導的中點約為 1.65 億美元，或因收入較低而比 2022 年低 1500 萬美元。順便說一句，從有效稅率的角度來看，我們繼續在 2023 年的 24% 到 25% 的範圍內建模。從營運資金的角度來看，我們預計營運資金的使用將增加 2000 萬到 2500 萬美元，因為從強勁的預售墓地銷售和強勁的激勵補償現金支付部分抵消了我之前提到的 23 年的無 CARES 法案付款現在已經過去了。因此，看看 23 年的投資資本，我們的第一筆投資將像往常一樣回到我們的業務中。我們預計維護資本支出將從 3.35 億美元下降到 3 億美元，這主要是由於我已經提到的我們現場位置的技術基礎設施支出下降。在中點，對我們地點的投資約為 1.2 億美元。公墓開發資本支出約 1.3 億美元，其餘 5000 萬美元用於數字投資和企業需求。除了我剛才描述的維護資本支出外，我們預計將部署 7500 萬至 1.25 億美元用於收購，以及大約 4500 萬美元用於新的殯儀館建設和房地產機會，這些將共同推動低至中等的稅後內部收益率，這又遠遠超過了我們的資本成本。我們認為我們擁有財務靈活性和流動性，可以在 23 年繼續實施大部分相同的成功資本投資策略，正如您在過去幾年中看到的那樣。我們將繼續遵循有紀律和平衡的投資方式，為我們的股東創造最高的相對價值。當然，這一戰略基於我們穩定的自由現金流、強勁的流動性以及有利的債務到期狀況。

So in closing, I'd like to provide some commentary on exactly that, our liquidity and financial position. I'd first like to highlight that in January of this year, we entered into a new $2.175 billion bank credit agreement, which consists of a $675 million term loan and a $1.5 billion revolving credit facility, both maturing now in January 2028. This transaction increased our liquidity by over $600 million. So today, that stands at about $1.2 billion in liquidity, and it also improved our debt maturity profile substantially.

因此，最後，我想就我們的流動性和財務狀況發表一些評論。我首先想強調的是，今年 1 月，我們簽訂了一項新的 21.75 億美元的銀行信貸協議，其中包括 6.75 億美元的定期貸款和 15 億美元的循環信貸額度，均將於 2028 年 1 月到期。這筆交易我們的流動性增加了 6 億多美元。所以今天，流動資金約為 12 億美元，這也大大改善了我們的債務到期狀況。

Finally, our leverage at the end of the quarter was about 3.25% net debt-to-EBITDA. Our EBITDA continues to normalize as COVID activity wanes, and we expect to enter our targeted leverage range of 3.5x to 4x by the end of this year.

最後，我們在本季度末的槓桿率約為 3.25% 的淨債務與 EBITDA 比。隨著 COVID 活動的減弱，我們的 EBITDA 繼續正常化，我們預計到今年年底將進入 3.5 倍至 4 倍的目標槓桿率範圍。

So in conclusion, 2022 was a really great year for us. We began this year with a very strong financial position. Most importantly, I echo Tom's comments that none of this would have been possible without the hard work and compassionate and caring of all of our dedicated frontline associates. We appreciate all of your efforts and again, say, thank you.

所以總而言之，2022 年對我們來說是非常棒的一年。今年伊始，我們的財務狀況非常強勁。最重要的是，我贊同湯姆的評論，如果沒有我們所有敬業的一線員工的辛勤工作、富有同情心和關懷，這一切都不可能實現。我們感謝您的所有努力，並再次說聲謝謝。

So with that, operator, we'll now conclude our prepared remarks, and we'll now open it back to you for questions.

因此，接線員，我們現在將結束我們準備好的評論，現在我們將打開它向您提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And the first question will be from Joanna Gajuk from Bank of America.

第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Joanna Gajuk。

So I guess, first, maybe clarify the comment you made on 2024. Did I hear right, you say you expect to grow at a normalized rate off of the earnings base. I don't know, did you mean from off of the $3.60 midpoint or there was another number?

所以我想，首先，也許可以澄清你在 2024 年發表的評論。我沒聽錯嗎，你說你希望在盈利基礎上以正常的速度增長。我不知道，你的意思是從 3.60 美元的中點開始還是有另一個數字？

Yes. Joanna, what I was referencing to is, we think this $3.60 is kind of a level off year for -- with all the COVID impacts and the like. And so based on what we know today, I know '24 still weighs off, we would expect to get back to that growth range of 8% to 12% growing off that $3.60 base. Obviously, we'll update you as the year goes on and be in a better position to talk about that -- a year from now.

是的。喬安娜，我指的是，我們認為這 3.60 美元是一個平穩的年份——包括所有 COVID 影響等。因此，根據我們今天所知道的，我知道 24 年仍然不堪重負，我們預計將從 3.60 美元的基數恢復到 8% 至 12% 的增長范圍。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們會為您提供最新信息，並在一年後更好地討論這個問題。

Okay. That makes good. I just want to clarify that. And I guess, on the quarter, and I guess as it relates to '23 guidance. So clearly, Q4 was stronger, and you said, in funeral services were -- was the area that came in much stronger. So can you -- is there a way to think about how big were this excess that number in Q4? And also, what do you assume in your guidance for '23? And did anything change? How you think about '23 from that angle versus how you were thinking about things 3 months ago?

好的。這很好。我只想澄清一下。我想，在本季度，我想這與 23 年的指導方針有關。很明顯，第四季度更強大，你說，在葬禮服務方面——是一個更強大的領域。那麼你能不能 - 有沒有辦法考慮第四季度這個數字有多大？而且，您在 23 年的指導中假設了什麼？有什麼改變嗎？與 3 個月前你如何看待事物相比，你如何從那個角度看待 23 年？

Yes. I think 3 months ago, Joanna, if you really look at what's happened, we've been able to maintain our guidance and when you compare back to '22. And I'd say, the big upside surprise is the funeral segment is performing more funeral cases than we would have anticipated. That's somewhat being offset by a couple of things like trust fund income, interest expense that's going up. So being able to absorb those things a year ago, we wouldn't have anticipated it being so impactful. So really positive about our funeral volumes and our ability to service those. I think on the excess deaths, I mentioned that what we can do is, we can go to the death certificate and see why somebody's been deceased. And normally, we expect, let's say, a 1% compounded under growth. We're at 5%. So you begin to say, well, what's causing that? And I think some of it could be the beginning of the baby boomers. Some of it could be our market share. And I think, I believe most of it is either COVID related and a lot less of that and more of this concept of excess death. Remember, the concept of excess death is really around, as a society, are we less healthy mentally and physically than we were going into the COVID and the ramifications of that. Lack of access to health care for some period of time. So it's our belief, and I think there's other data supporting this, that those trends will continue albeit to lessen. So as we think about these excess deaths, they'll continue into '23. There'll be less comparatively as you think about 2022 is the way we're thinking about it. But again, not an exact science, just our -- our belief.

是的。我想 3 個月前，喬安娜，如果你真的看看發生了什麼，我們已經能夠保持我們的指導，當你回到 22 年時。而且我想說，最大的驚喜是葬禮部門執行的葬禮案件比我們預期的要多。這在某種程度上被信託基金收入、利息支出等幾項因素所抵消。因此，能夠在一年前吸收這些東西，我們不會預料到它會產生如此大的影響。對我們的葬禮數量和我們提供服務的能力非常積極。我認為關於過度死亡，我提到我們可以做的是，我們可以查看死亡證明，看看為什麼有人已經死亡。通常情況下，我們預計，比方說，在增長下複合 1%。我們是 5%。所以你開始說，嗯，是什麼原因造成的？我認為其中一些可能是嬰兒潮一代的開始。其中一些可能是我們的市場份額。而且我認為，我相信其中大部分要么與 COVID 相關，要么與 COVID 相關，而更多與過度死亡概念相關。請記住，過度死亡的概念確實存在，作為一個社會，我們的身心健康是否不如我們進入 COVID 及其後果時那麼健康。一段時間內無法獲得醫療保健。所以我們相信，我認為還有其他數據支持這一點，即這些趨勢將繼續，儘管會減弱。因此，當我們考慮這些過量死亡時，它們將持續到 23 年。相對而言，您認為 2022 年是我們考慮的方式。但同樣，這不是一門精確的科學，只是我們的——我們的信念。

So we should say, it's like 1%, 2% of funeral services being above where they would have been otherwise.

所以我們應該說，大概有 1%、2% 的葬禮服務超出了原本應該達到的水平。

Yes. We would expect that base to grow somewhere around, call it, rounded 1%, 2%. And again, I'd say that based for a variety of reasons. It's going a little bit more. And again, compared to 2022, we expect '23 to go down, but I still think we'll be operating at elevated levels if you compound growth off that 2019 number. So we feel good about the revenue streams that we're projecting for 2023.

是的。我們預計該基數會增長大約 1%、2%。再一次，我會說基於各種原因。它會多一點。再一次，與 2022 年相比，我們預計 23 年會下降，但我仍然認為，如果你在 2019 年的數字基礎上實現複合增長，我們將在更高的水平上運營。因此，我們對 2023 年預計的收入流感到滿意。

Okay. That's helpful. Understood. And I guess another topic you mentioned, the settlement. That almost $65 million that was excluding G&A and you excluded from the cash flow outlook. So can you give us more details on on this amount? It's quite sizable, actually. So what exactly is being elected? Are these the same cases really in those 2 states because you mentioned Florida and California or those are 2 different things? And I guess, was that -- should we think about this any indication that similar issues happening in other states?

好的。這很有幫助。明白了。我想你提到的另一個話題是和解。將近 6500 萬美元不包括 G&A，您將其排除在現金流量前景之外。那麼你能給我們更多關於這個數額的細節嗎？實際上，它相當大。那麼究竟是什麼被選舉出來呢？因為您提到佛羅里達和加利福尼亞，還是因為您提到了佛羅里達和加利福尼亞，或者它們是兩個不同的事物，所以這兩個州真的存在相同的案例嗎？我想，那是——我們是否應該考慮其他州發生類似問題的任何跡象？

Joanna, I'll take that. This is Eric. It's already -- these are 2 cases in California and Florida that have been previously disclosed, as we said in the press release as well. The first thing I'd try to give a little bit of color on is to say, this relates to our SCI Direct segment that is delivering to the direct cremation consumer products and services and are doing it very well. That's a segment of ours. It's just over about $200 million of revenues on our total of about $4 billion in revenues, just to give you kind of a relative size perspective. What's really unique about this business is what we love about this business though is, we're really delivering exactly what a direct consumer wants in terms of products and services. This is one of our segments that has some of the highest customer satisfaction surveys that we receive. Google stars as well as we measure it. I think it's something like almost 90% of the Google star feedback we get are actually 5 stars as it relates to it. So it's a great business. It's high customer satisfaction, and we really like to continue serving that consumer in such a positive way as we have done. We've said in the press release, we've kind of broken it out for you. It's a pretax charge. It's very much estimated at this point in time. About 2/3 of that relates to customer cancellations and 1/3 of it relates to some investigative costs and other legal expenses in California. When someone cancels one of these contracts, first of all, any consumer has the ability to cancel anything that we've done that has been undelivered. So the undelivered service offerings could always be canceled. These specific cancellations though relate to what some products and services such as merchandise, such as an earned kit that have already been delivered. And in those situations, we're going to go ahead and open that up for a certain period of time and allow these customers, if they choose to do it, to cancel it. And that's our best estimate at this time. It could be bigger than this. It could actually be a lot smaller than this, but this is our estimate for now in terms of customer cancellations. When you think about the business then going forward, I think we may -- we think some of the things that we do to deliver prior to the atneed event in this particular line of business as we move forward. In doing that, it could have an effect on some of the revenue recognition. It could have some of the effect where we trust more monies as we move forward. But again, just to put that in perspective, as we move forward, those are not very material. I think that's probably worth maybe $0.05 to $0.07 a share in the total $3.60 guidance, and that's included in that, including them all. So going forward, we may tweak our policies or how we interact with consumer a little bit going forward in terms of the predelivery of merchandise and such. But again, a very happy customer is what you have to get from this, and we want to continue delivering to a very satisfied customer that finds value in the products and services that this particular segment delivers.

喬安娜，我會接受的。這是埃里克。已經 - 正如我們在新聞稿中所說，這些是加利福尼亞州和佛羅里達州的 2 起案件，之前已經披露過。我要嘗試給出一點顏色的第一件事就是說，這與我們的 SCI Direct 部分有關，該部分正在向直接火化消費者產品和服務提供服務，並且做得很好。那是我們的一部分。在我們約 40 億美元的總收入中，它的收入剛剛超過 2 億美元，只是為了給你一個相對規模的視角。這項業務的真正獨特之處在於我們對這項業務的熱愛，儘管如此，我們確實提供了直接消費者在產品和服務方面想要的東西。這是我們收到的一些最高客戶滿意度調查的細分市場之一。谷歌星級以及我們衡量它。我認為我們收到的 Google 星級反饋中幾乎有 90% 實際上是與之相關的 5 星。所以這是一項偉大的事業。這是很高的客戶滿意度，我們真的很想像我們所做的那樣以積極的方式繼續為消費者服務。我們在新聞稿中說過，我們已經為你打破了它。這是稅前費用。在這個時間點估計非常多。其中約 2/3 與客戶取消有關，1/3 與加州的一些調查費用和其他法律費用有關。當有人取消其中一份合同時，首先，任何消費者都可以取消我們已經完成但尚未交付的任何東西。因此，始終可以取消未交付的服務產品。這些特定的取消雖然與某些產品和服務有關，例如商品，例如已經交付的賺取的工具包。在這些情況下，我們將繼續開放一段時間，並允許這些客戶（如果他們選擇這樣做）取消它。這是我們目前最好的估計。它可能比這更大。它實際上可能比這小得多，但這是我們目前對客戶取消的估計。當你考慮業務然後向前發展時，我認為我們可能會 - 我們會考慮在我們前進的過程中在這個特定業務線的需要事件之前我們所做的一些事情。在這樣做時，它可能會對一些收入確認產生影響。當我們向前邁進時，它可能會產生一些影響，讓我們相信更多的錢。但同樣，從長遠來看，隨著我們的前進，這些並不是很重要。我認為在總計 3.60 美元的指導中，這可能價值每股 0.05 美元到 0.07 美元，而且包括在內，包括所有這些。因此，展望未來，我們可能會在商品預交付等方面調整我們的政策或我們與消費者的互動方式。但同樣，一個非常滿意的客戶是你必須從中得到的，我們希望繼續為一個非常滿意的客戶提供服務，讓他們在這個特定細分市場提供的產品和服務中找到價值。

In terms of the cash flow. In '23, the outflows, this is still a moving target. We don't have the settlement -- one of the settlements in Florida has not been completely approved yet. We're still in discussions with the state of California on a settlement and the other ones as well. So just in terms of timing, that's why we chose not to include it. And again, the cancellations is our best guess at this point. It could be a little bit heavier. It could be a lot lighter than this as well. But for all of those reasons, we'll keep you informed, but we don't think this is ultimately going to have a material effect. It's a really good business, and we look forward to providing great service to that customer that appreciates it moving forward.

在現金流方面。 23年流出，這還是一個移動的目標。我們還沒有和解協議——佛羅里達州的一個和解協議尚未完全獲得批准。我們仍在與加利福尼亞州就解決方案和其他問題進行討論。所以就時間而言，這就是我們選擇不包括它的原因。再一次，取消是我們目前最好的猜測。它可能會重一點。它也可能比這輕得多。但出於所有這些原因，我們會隨時通知您，但我們認為這最終不會產生實質性影響。這是一項非常好的業務，我們期待為欣賞它的客戶提供優質的服務。

And our next question will be from John Ransom from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Raymond James 的 John Ransom。

Maybe an unfair question because it would involve math, and I know that's challenging for the team. If you were to look at 2019 to 2023. Obviously, if we compounded 2019, 10% versus where your $3.60 is, we're a lot lower than $3.60. Did you give your best guess as to how much of that is just elevated volumes on the funeral side? How much of that is cost? And then how much of that is preneed cemetery and other? And just trying to get a sense of kind of detailing out the outperformance versus controllable versus just higher-than-expected volumes.

這可能是一個不公平的問題，因為它涉及數學，而且我知道這對團隊來說很有挑戰性。如果你看一下 2019 年到 2023 年。顯然，如果我們將 2019 年復利，10% 與你的 3.60 美元相比，我們比 3.60 美元低很多。您是否給出了最好的猜測，其中有多少只是葬禮方面的增加量？其中的成本是多少？然後其中有多少是需要墓地和其他的？並且只是試圖了解一種詳細說明表現優於可控與高於預期的數量。

Yes, John, I think when you go to the $3.60, there's not a lot of higher-than-expected volumes left. Obviously, the $3.80, there's still some. So as we think about it, if you remember at the Investor Day last year, we have that slide that shows $0.65 of improvement, the new base that we're operating on. 75% of that was tied to cemetery sales related to marketing and sales improvement, and then we had another 10% and 15%, which related to cost efficiencies and related to share -- accelerated share buyback. So as we sit here, I'd say, that's the preponderance of the improvement combined with that, to your point, there's probably another $0.10 or $0.15 worth of, I'll call it, excess death impact. And that's where I go back to, I don't know if that whole $0.10 or $0.15 goes away one day because it's all related to ripple effects of COVID. And how much of it stays because it's our market share gain or it's the baby boomers beginning to impact the projection. So most of it, I think we'd identified before, you're right. There's a little bit of excess death still in that 2023 projection, but not as much as we saw in '22 or as much as we saw in '21.

是的，約翰，我認為當你達到 3.60 美元時，已經沒有多少高於預期的成交量了。顯然，3.80 美元，還有一些。所以當我們考慮它時，如果你還記得去年的投資者日，我們有一張幻燈片顯示 0.65 美元的改進，這是我們正在運營的新基礎。其中 75% 與與營銷和銷售改善相關的墓地銷售有關，然後我們還有 10% 和 15%，這與成本效率和股票相關——加速股票回購。因此，當我們坐在這裡時，我會說，這就是改進的優勢，就您的觀點而言，可能還有另外 0.10 美元或 0.15 美元的價值，我稱之為額外的死亡影響。這就是我要回到的地方，我不知道那整整 0.10 美元或 0.15 美元是否有一天會消失，因為這都與 COVID 的連鎖反應有關。其中有多少是因為我們的市場份額增加或者嬰兒潮一代開始影響預測。所以大部分，我想我們之前已經確定，你是對的。在 2023 年的預測中仍有一點過度死亡，但沒有我們在 22 年或 21 年看到的那麼多。

Well, I mean it's kind of remarkable because you would also add in the higher interest expense, which was been contemplated. So it's really the base is even a little better than that. Okay. And then just a squishy question on the consumer. I mean preneed cemetery is the ultimate fairly large ticket item that can be deferred. So are you seeing kind of as you went through '22 with the ebbs and flows of the stock market? In 2023, you mentioned the lower end consumer, some changes, but what are you seeing in your core kind of 73-year-old boomer relatively affluent when you approach [Shimmer Herr] about a -- big ticket screening cemetery. What are you seeing in terms of behavior changes, if any, from the peak?

嗯，我的意思是這有點值得注意，因為你還會增加更高的利息費用，這是預期的。所以它的基礎真的比那好一點。好的。然後只是一個關於消費者的問題。我的意思是 preneed 墓地是可以推遲的最終相當大的門票項目。那麼，當您經歷 22 年股市的潮起潮落時，您是否看到了某種情況？在 2023 年，你提到了低端消費者，一些變化，但是當你接近 [Shimmer Herr] 關於一個 - 大票篩選墓地時，你在你的核心類型 73 歲的嬰兒潮一代中看到了什麼相對富裕。從峰值的行為變化（如果有）來看，您看到了什麼？

I'd say, generally, John, seeing very favorable. I mean we're still seeing good stuff at the high end. We're seeing good stuff in -- generally in the core. And you test upon it, I'd say, we're still seeing kind of that lower entry point sale, a little more difficulty and give people to, like you said, sign on the guideline versus differ. So that segment continues to be a little bit challenging, but I think by the results you're seeing, we're overcoming it with a lot of other things, which are more political leads, more effective leads as we take these marketing leads and have learnings and be able to test. So -- and then leveraging the utilization of our technology to enhance kind of real-time training and productivity. So I think a lot of those were overcoming and still feel very strong about it. And my thought is, if we don't enter into a recession and inflation begins to tamper back down, we'll see that customer come back and feel really good about back half of '23, and particularly, as we get into '24.

我會說，一般來說，約翰，看到非常有利。我的意思是我們仍然在高端看到好東西。我們看到了好東西——通常是在核心。你測試它，我會說，我們仍然看到那種較低的入口點銷售，有點困難，讓人們像你說的那樣，在指南上簽名而不是不同。所以這個部分仍然有點挑戰，但我認為從你看到的結果來看，我們正在用很多其他的東西來克服它，這些是更多的政治線索，更有效的線索，因為我們採取了這些營銷線索和有學習並能夠測試。所以 - 然後利用我們的技術來增強實時培訓和生產力。所以我認為很多人都克服了並且仍然對此感到非常強烈。我的想法是，如果我們不進入衰退並且通貨膨脹率開始回落，我們將看到客戶回來並對 23 世紀後半段感覺非常好，特別是當我們進入 24 世紀時.

And then you've touched in the past on sales productivity. So in short, you're selling more stuff with fewer people, but you have like -- again, take a point in time, 2019 maybe is our pre baseline. What's a useful way just to think about the average productivity per salesperson today versus pre-COVID? And how much of that would you say is just using more modern tools like contact management and moving inventory online and streamlining your product flows versus just good old-fashioned kind of more rigorous kind of top-down management?

然後你在過去觸及了銷售效率。所以簡而言之，你用更少的人賣了更多的東西，但你喜歡 - 再一次，採取一個時間點，2019 年可能是我們的前基線。僅考慮與 COVID 之前相比，今天每個銷售人員的平均生產力有什麼有用的方法？你會說其中有多少只是使用更現代的工具，如聯繫人管理和在線移動庫存以及簡化你的產品流程，而不是僅僅使用老式的更嚴格的自上而下的管理？

So as far as head count of salespeople, I'd say, we're down about 300 or 400 headcount from '19 pre-COVID. And if you look at the productivity, I think I referenced, we're 28% higher than we were back then. So we're able to be 28% higher with, call it, 7% to 8% less headcount. So quite a bit of efficiency. I would tell you that quite a bit of that, the majority of that is probably being able to leverage the tools we've invested in, be it Beacon, be it Salesforce and the way we utilize those things. And then combining that with I think the marketing leads growth, if you look at the lead sources, we've had the traditional channels that generally follow a pretty predictable pattern, and the real increase in lead has been through the digital leads to the marketing leads and those have become more plentiful and more effective. So I give -- and again, Gerry Heard knows better than me, but I'd say, over 50% is -- probably, approaching 60 or 70 is the productivity of these tools. And the rest of it, better leads and good old fashioned, like you said, great sales teams that execute.

因此，就銷售人員的人數而言，我想說，我們比 19 年 COVID 之前的人數減少了大約 300 或 400 人。如果你看一下生產力，我想我提到過，我們比當時高了 28%。因此，我們可以將員工人數減少 7% 到 8%，提高 28%。所以相當有效率。我會告訴你其中相當一部分，其中大部分可能是能夠利用我們投資的工具，無論是 Beacon，還是 Salesforce 以及我們利用這些東西的方式。然後將其與我認為營銷引領增長相結合，如果你看一下潛在客戶來源，我們的傳統渠道通常遵循相當可預測的模式，而真正的增長是通過數字導致營銷線索，而且這些線索變得更加豐富和有效。所以我再說一遍，Gerry Heard 比我更清楚，但我想說，超過 50% 是這些工具的生產力可能接近 60 或 70。其餘的，更好的領導和良好的老式，就像你說的，執行力強的銷售團隊。

I just want you to know I keep getting mailers from you guys. I'm a little young. I just want to point that out. You take me off your list for a few years.

我只想讓你知道我一直收到你們的郵件。我有點年輕。我只想指出這一點。你把我從你的名單上剔除幾年。

You're actually our target customer.

您實際上是我們的目標客戶。

And our next question is from Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Scott Schneeberger。

It's Daniel on for Scott. Could you guys please elaborate a little bit on the center preneed sales production expectation for '23 as it comes to the cadence as well as how you think about velocity versus sales average and large sales activity?

丹尼爾替斯科特上場。你們能否詳細說明中心對 23 年銷售生產的預期，因為它涉及節奏，以及您如何看待速度與銷售平均值和大型銷售活動？

Sure. So as you look at our -- the way we're guiding on here is, we believe that, again, we're back up and running and growing at what you'd expect us to do. So on a normalized basis, we'd say, mid-single-digit growth is what we would expect. What's slightly different about '23 is, recall particularly in the first quarter, there was a lot of COVID activity. And when you have COVID activity, there's a lot of atneed arrangements or variables that are taking place, and that's a pretty productive preneed sale because it would be a companion sales. So when we think about the cadence in the first quarter, while we think about the cadence in the first quarter, while we expect the first quarter to be great. It's not going to look as favorable compared to the first quarter of 2022 because of that COVID activity. So as we think about it, that's the toughest sales productivity quarter, I should say, sales production quarter. And then as you get to the rest of the year, the comparisons become a little more normalized. So overall, instead of thinking about it growing in the mid-single digit, we're projecting it to be in the low single digit, and that's the slight difference being that -- that first quarter comparison.

當然。因此，當您查看我們的 - 我們在這裡的指導方式時，我們相信，我們再次恢復運行並按照您期望我們做的事情發展。因此，在正常化的基礎上，我們會說，中個位數增長是我們所期望的。 23 年略有不同的是，特別是在第一季度，有很多 COVID 活動。當你有 COVID 活動時，會發生很多需要的安排或變量，這是一個非常有成效的預需要銷售，因為它將是一個伴隨銷售。因此，當我們考慮第一季度的節奏時，我們會考慮第一季度的節奏，同時我們預計第一季度會很棒。由於 COVID 活動，與 2022 年第一季度相比，它看起來不會那麼有利。因此，正如我們所考慮的那樣，這是最艱難的銷售生產率季度，我應該說，銷售生產季度。然後到了今年剩下的時間，比較會變得更加規範化。所以總的來說，我們沒有考慮它以中個位數增長，而是預測它處於低個位數，這就是第一季度比較的細微差別。

Got it. And on the average funeral per service -- average revenue for service, how do you think about the components of that as we look into 2023?

知道了。關於每項服務的平均葬禮——服務的平均收入，在我們展望 2023 年時，您如何看待其中的組成部分？

And you're talking about particularly cemetery, correct?

你說的特別是墓地，對嗎？

No. On the funeral side, the average revenue per service. The post cemetery as we look into '23?

不。在葬禮方面，每項服務的平均收入。我們調查 23 年時的後墓地？

Yes. I think on the average revenue side, we expect that to be in the low single digits. We had kind of an unusual thing happened towards the end where we had currency translation issues as it relates to Canadian operations. Obviously, the trust performance on the trust then income was down in 2022. And so those types of things, as you think about 2023, I think our expectations are -- income is still going to have some challenges because of the carryover impacts of what happened in 2022. And who knows on the translation side, but we feel very comfortable after that, that we're going to grow at the organic level in the low single digits and feel really good about pricing. We're not seeing really any pushback at all and passing along some of these inflationary impacts that we're seeing in our business.

是的。我認為在平均收入方面，我們預計會保持在較低的個位數。我們在最後發生了一件不尋常的事情，我們遇到了與加拿大業務相關的貨幣換算問題。顯然，2022 年信託的信託業績然後收入下降了。所以這些類型的事情，正如你對 2023 年的看法，我認為我們的預期是——由於什麼的結轉影響，收入仍將面臨一些挑戰發生在 2022 年。誰知道在翻譯方面，但在那之後我們感到非常自在，我們將以低個位數的有機水平增長，並且對定價感覺非常好。我們根本沒有看到任何阻力，也沒有傳遞我們在業務中看到的一些通脹影響。

Got it. That's helpful. And final one from us. I mean for the last couple of years, Siemens had a funeral assistance program, and it sounds like that's going to come to an end now in May, following the end of the public health emergency declaration. Have you seen any impact on this program?

知道了。這很有幫助。最後一個來自我們。我的意思是，在過去的幾年裡，西門子有一個葬禮援助計劃，聽起來該計劃將在公共衛生緊急聲明結束後於 5 月結束。你看到這個程序有什麼影響嗎？

Not in a material way. I'm sure we've seen some, but I couldn't even tell you collectively what that number is. We're not seeing that in a material fashion.

不是以物質的方式。我敢肯定我們已經看到了一些，但我什至不能告訴你這個數字是多少。我們沒有以物質方式看到這一點。

The next question is from Tobey Sommer from Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tobey Sommer。

This is Jasper Bibb on for Tobey. Just one clarification on the trust income assumptions in your EPS guidance. Obviously, it's been a pretty decent start to the year for equity returns. So are you assuming any higher trust returns now relative to the initial rating you gave back in November? Or will you say no change there?

這是托比的 Jasper Bibb。僅對您的 EPS 指南中的信託收入假設進行一次澄清。顯然，今年的股票回報率開局相當不錯。那麼，相對於您在 11 月份給出的初始評級，您是否假設現在的信任回報率更高？或者你會說那裡沒有變化嗎？

No. I'd say, it's a great start, but it's too early to think anything right now. So we've said from the beginning that we think there'll be a rebound, and we think they will be high single digits. Maybe we can get to about 10% in terms of return. It's a great start in January, but we haven't changed anything at this point in time.

不，我會說，這是一個很好的開始，但現在考慮任何事情還為時過早。所以我們從一開始就說我們認為會有反彈，我們認為它們將是高個位數。也許我們可以在回報方面達到 10% 左右。一月份的開局不錯，但目前我們還沒有做出任何改變。

Jasper, just to clarify, we think the -- we think we will have positive results in 2023. But as you think about trust income and its impact, because of the cadence of the market declining last year, we're going to have some tough first half year comparisons when you think about it. So to Eric's point, we're going to earn well in the first quarter, but still anticipate trust income to be down because you've got the last 9 months of last year you got to overcome.

Jasper，澄清一下，我們認為 - 我們認為我們將在 2023 年取得積極成果。但是當你考慮信託收入及其影響時，由於去年市場下滑的節奏，我們將有一些當你想到它時，上半年的艱難比較。因此，對於 Eric 的觀點，我們將在第一季度獲得良好的收入，但仍預計信託收入會下降，因為你必須克服去年的最後 9 個月。

Right. That makes sense. And then I want to ask about some of the cost inflation pressure you cited in the prepared remarks. Are you seeing any kind of easing of wage inflation or other input costs early this year? And how are you thinking about kind of managing those inflationary trends in the guidance?

正確的。這就說得通了。然後我想問一下你在準備好的發言中提到的一些成本通脹壓力。您是否看到今年年初工資通脹或其他投入成本有所緩解？您如何考慮在指南中管理這些通脹趨勢？

Sure. I mean the primary ones we saw last year were wages and then energy related, predominantly utilities, some fuel. So take the easier one first. On the utilities and fuel side, I think things are trending better. Obviously, we saw a lot of increases in 2022. We've seen a dampening effect. That should begin to show up in the comparison. And on the wage front, we definitely are seeing some pressure going away. We did experience probably about a 5% wage inflation when you think about what we encountered in 2022. And so as we think about '23, we'd expect that to lessen. And like I said, I don't think it's back to 1% to 2% inflationary cost, though. It's probably more 3%, 4%. But again, I did make the passing grade in economics, but -- okay, it was an adding parallel.

當然。我的意思是我們去年看到的主要是工資，然後是與能源相關的，主要是公用事業和一些燃料。所以先拿容易的那個。在公用事業和燃料方面，我認為情況正在好轉。顯然，我們在 2022 年看到了很多增長。我們看到了抑制效應。這應該開始出現在比較中。在工資方面，我們肯定看到一些壓力正在消失。考慮到我們在 2022 年遇到的情況，我們確實經歷了大約 5% 的工資通脹。因此，當我們考慮 23 年時，我們預計這種情況會減輕。就像我說的，我不認為它會回到 1% 到 2% 的通貨膨脹成本。大概是3%、4%。但同樣，我確實在經濟學上取得了及格分數，但是——好吧，這是一個平行的補充。

Next question is from A.J. Rice from Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 A.J.來自 Crédit Suisse 的大米。

Just a couple of questions, if I could. Cremation rate up 150 basis points year-to-year this quarter. It's been running sort of at that pace for a while. Do you think that's sort of the new normal? I know you typically had a range of 100 to 150, 50 to 150. Any thoughts on what you're seeing out there with respect to cremations?

只是幾個問題，如果可以的話。本季度火化率同比上升 150 個基點。它已經以這種速度運行了一段時間。你認為這是一種新常態嗎？我知道你通常有 100 到 150、50 到 150 的範圍。你對火葬有什麼想法嗎？

A.J., I think you're right. I think probably 120 to 150 is a fair way to think about it. It will ebb and flow, but obviously, COVID time period was a little unique. But I'd say, based upon what we're seeing, we'd expect in that 120 to 150 range.

A.J.，我認為你是對的。我認為 120 到 150 可能是一個合理的思考方式。它會潮起潮落，但顯然，COVID 時期有點獨特。但我會說，根據我們所看到的，我們預計在 120 到 150 的範圍內。

Okay. It seems like the larger cases, higher end of the market and the cemetery side has come back. Do you think we're sort of at a normal pace? Or are we seeing some reflection of pent-up demand that makes it sort of above average at this point?

好的。似乎更大的案例、更高端的市場和墓地方面又回來了。你認為我們的節奏是正常的嗎？或者我們是否看到一些被壓抑的需求反映，使其在這一點上高於平均水平？

I don't know that it's pent-up demand because we saw pretty strong throughout. I think it could be a combination of 2 things. One, we've built a lot of fabulous inventory out there and really across the entire country, and so having more availability is going to lead to more higher-end sales. So I think some of our continued growth when you think about the markets being down 20% and all that, and all the things you'd expect to happen, some of that could be the fact that, hey, look, we've got it in more places than it was up there, maybe more spectacular stuff than we had before, and that's going to entice people into that high-end category. So we feel good. There's a lot of available inventory. We're going to -- as we mentioned, flip a few of those projects, bigger projects across the country and would anticipate selling into those projects at a higher rate.

我不知道這是被壓抑的需求，因為我們看到整個市場都非常強勁。我認為這可能是兩件事的結合。第一，我們在那裡建立了很多很棒的庫存，實際上遍布整個國家，因此擁有更多的可用性將帶來更多的高端銷售。所以我認為，當你想到市場下跌 20% 以及所有你期望發生的事情時，我們的一些持續增長，其中一些可能是這樣的事實，嘿，看，我們有它在比它在上面更多的地方，也許比我們以前擁有的更壯觀的東西，這將吸引人們進入那個高端類別。所以我們感覺很好。有很多可用的庫存。我們將——正如我們提到的那樣，在全國范圍內翻轉其中一些項目，更大的項目，並預計以更高的速度出售這些項目。

Okay. Obviously, like the last couple of years, you ended up on a strong note with the acquisitions in the fourth quarter. Is that the way you think acquisitions is just going to be really skewed to the fourth quarter, getting ahead of the year-end taxes? And maybe just comment on your pipeline that you're seeing now?

好的。顯然，就像過去幾年一樣，你在第四季度的收購中表現出色。您是否認為收購真的會偏向第四季度，提前於年終稅收？也許只是評論你現在看到的管道？

There's definitely people trying to get year-end, and I think there's some facts associated with that. The pipeline looks good. We don't -- there's not a lot of huge, huge deals, but I'd say, the deal activity is very good. We're seeing a lot of people that we're talking to, and so we expect to have a really good 2023, and hopefully, get a few more in the first 3 quarters of the year. But it is pretty typical, like I said, for people. They really don't want to cross that year-end threshold. So there's a real mad rush to continue A.J., you're right. So a good year coming up, we believe, and a lot of things going on.

肯定有人想過年，我認為有一些與此相關的事實。管道看起來不錯。我們沒有 - 沒有很多巨大的交易，但我會說，交易活動非常好。我們看到很多人正在與之交談，因此我們預計 2023 年會非常好，並希望在今年的前 3 個季度能有更多的人。但就像我說的，對於人們來說，這是非常典型的。他們真的不想越過那個年底的門檻。所以真的很急於繼續 A.J.，你是對的。因此，我們相信，美好的一年即將到來，並且會發生很多事情。

Anything different on pricing for deals that you're seeing?

您看到的交易定價有什麼不同嗎？

Not really. I think the whole -- what your normalized volume discussion was always interesting. And I think that's actually getting more clarity as we get into this year versus, let's say, 2 years ago, where you're arguing about was 2021 a good base year to grow off of? which we never believed. So I'd say, that part is getting easier. And I'd say, the pricing expectations are still a little higher than they were 3 or 4 years ago, but manageable.

並不真地。我認為整體 - 你的標準化卷討論總是很有趣。而且我認為，隨著我們進入今年，這實際上變得更加清晰，而比方說，2 年前，你爭論的是 2021 年是一個良好的增長基準年嗎？我們從不相信。所以我想說，這部分變得越來越容易了。我要說的是，定價預期仍然比 3 或 4 年前高一點，但在可控範圍內。

Okay. Maybe last question. Any update on the discussions around the funeral rule? What you're hearing from the FTC or otherwise? Any commentary there?

好的。也許是最後一個問題。關於葬禮規則的討論有任何更新嗎？你從聯邦貿易委員會或其他方面聽到了什麼？那裡有評論嗎？

We -- the comment period was up in January this year. We submitted a very similar response to reiterate our position, but we had about 700, 750 responses that they think they have to go through at this point in time. So A.J., the timing is just open. We really don't know. I mean this started 3 years ago that we started talking about it. I think someone said the last time that we had a change 20 years ago or so. It took 8 to 10 years to even make that change. So I think the timing is very uncertain. I think you can read the papers. Yesterday and today, the FTC has got a lot on their plate. I'm not sure that with the quality of the industry in total, dealing with its customer and getting very, very high marks, I'm not sure this is any type of burning platform for the FTC to deal with sooner or later. So we'll just have to wait and see.

我們——今年 1 月的評論期結束了。我們提交了非常相似的回復來重申我們的立場，但我們收到了大約 700、750 份他們認為此時必須通過的回复。所以 A.J.，時機剛剛好。我們真的不知道。我的意思是這始於 3 年前我們開始談論它。我想有人上次說我們在 20 年前左右發生了變化。甚至花了 8 到 10 年才做出這種改變。所以我認為時機非常不確定。我想你可以看看報紙。昨天和今天，聯邦貿易委員會有很多事情要做。我不確定整個行業的質量，與客戶打交道並獲得非常非常高的分數，我不確定這是 FTC 遲早要處理的任何類型的燃燒平台。所以我們只能拭目以待。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to SCI management for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 SCI 管理層，聽取任何閉幕詞。

We want to thank everybody for being on the call today. We look forward to speaking to you again on our earnings call. I believe, it's on May 1, April 30. Early May. So we'll talk to you then, everybody, to be careful. Thanks.

我們要感謝大家今天的電話會議。我們期待在我們的財報電話會議上再次與您交談。我相信，是在 5 月 1 日，4 月 30 日。5 月初。所以我們會和大家談談，大家要小心。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。