SBA Communications Corp (SBAC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the SBA Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 SBA 第四季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mark DeRussy, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人，財務副總裁 Mark DeRussy。請繼續。

Good evening, and thank you for joining us for SBA's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Here with me today are Jeff Stoops, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brendan Cavanagh, our Chief Financial Officer.

晚上好，感謝您加入我們的 SBA 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jeff Stoops；和我們的首席財務官 Brendan Cavanagh。

Some of the information we will discuss on this call is forward-looking, including, but not limited to, any guidance for 2023 and beyond. In today's press release and in our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, October 31, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we may make.

我們將在本次電話會議上討論的一些信息具有前瞻性，包括但不限於 2023 年及以後的任何指導。在今天的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中，我們詳細說明了可能導致我們未來業績與預期不同的重大風險。我們的聲明截至今天，即 10 月 31 日，我們沒有義務更新我們可能做出的任何前瞻性聲明。

In addition, our comments will include non-GAAP financial measures and other key operating metrics. The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found in our supplemental financial data package, which is located on the landing page of our Investor Relations website. With that, I will now turn the call over to Brendan.

此外，我們的評論將包括非 GAAP 財務指標和其他關鍵運營指標。有關這些項目的調節和其他信息可以在我們的補充財務數據包中找到，該數據包位於我們的投資者關係網站的登錄頁面上。有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給布倫丹。

Thank you, Mark. Good evening. We finished up an outstanding 2022 with another very strong quarter. Our fourth quarter results were ahead of our expectations and allowed us to finish at or near the high end of our full year 2022 outlook for most metrics.

謝謝你，馬克。晚上好。我們以另一個非常強勁的季度結束了出色的 2022 年。我們第四季度的業績超出了我們的預期，使我們能夠在大多數指標上達到或接近我們 2022 年全年展望的高端。

Total GAAP site leasing revenues for the fourth quarter were $609.6 million, and cash site leasing revenues were $600.5 million. Foreign exchange rates represented a benefit of approximately $800,000 when compared with our previously forecasted FX rate estimates for the quarter and a benefit of $2.2 million when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

第四季度 GAAP 場地租賃總收入為 6.096 億美元，現金場地租賃收入為 6.005 億美元。與我們之前預測的本季度匯率估計相比，外匯匯率帶來了約 800,000 美元的收益，與 2021 年第四季度相比帶來了 220 萬美元的收益。

Same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth for the fourth quarter, which is calculated on a constant currency basis, was 5.1% net over the fourth quarter of 2021, including the impact of 4.2% of churn. On a gross basis, same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth was 9.3%. Domestic same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth over the fourth quarter of last year was 8.5% on a gross basis and 5% on a net basis, including 3.5% of churn.

按固定匯率計算，同塔第四季度經常性現金租賃收入增長比 2021 年第四季度淨增長 5.1%，其中包括 4.2% 的流失率影響。按毛額計算，同塔經常性現金租賃收入增長 9.3%。國內同塔經常性現金租賃收入較去年第四季度毛增長 8.5%，淨增長 5%，包括 3.5% 的流失率。

Domestic operational leasing activity or bookings representing new revenue placed under contract during the fourth quarter was not as strong as the third quarter, but still solid. We saw meaningful and balanced contributions from each of our largest customers. Full year organic leasing contributions to domestic site leasing revenue ended up in line with our outlook provided on our prior earnings call.

第四季度代表新合同收入的國內運營租賃活動或預訂不如第三季度強勁，但仍然穩健。我們看到了每個最大客戶的有意義和平衡的貢獻。全年有機租賃對國內場地租賃收入的貢獻最終與我們在之前的財報電話會議上提供的展望一致。

During the fourth quarter, amendment activity and new leases each represented 50% of our domestic bookings. The big 4 carriers of AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon and DISH represented approximately 95% of total incremental domestic leasing revenue signed up during the quarter. Domestically, we again experienced less churn than we had projected due to timing of merger-related decommissionings being later than we had previously estimated. We still expect to incur this churn and have incorporated our reduced 2022 domestic churn amount into our outlook for 2023.

在第四季度，修改活動和新租約各占我們國內預訂的 50%。 AT&T、T-Mobile、Verizon 和 DISH 這四大運營商約佔本季度簽約的國內租賃總收入增量的 95%。在國內，由於與合併相關的退役時間比我們之前估計的要晚，我們的流失率再次低於我們的預期。我們仍然預計會發生這種流失，並將我們減少的 2022 年國內流失量納入我們對 2023 年的展望。

Internationally, on a constant currency basis, same tower cash leasing revenue growth was 5.4% net, including 7.6% of churn or 13% on a gross basis. International leasing activity was very good again with similar results to our strong third quarter. 2022 was one of the strongest years in the company's history for international gross leasing activity or bookings.

在國際上，按固定匯率計算，同塔現金租賃收入淨增長 5.4%，包括 7.6% 的流失率或 13% 的毛利率。國際租賃活動再次非常好，結果與我們強勁的第三季度相似。 2022 年是該公司歷史上國際總租賃活動或預訂量最強勁的年份之一。

In addition to strong customer activity levels across many of our markets, we continue to see healthy contribution from inflation-based escalators. In Brazil, our largest international market, we had another very strong quarter. Same tower organic growth in Brazil was 13.2% on a constant currency basis. Similar to the third quarter and as anticipated, international churn remained elevated in the fourth quarter due primarily carrier consolidations and Digicel's previously announced exit from Panama.

除了我們許多市場的強勁客戶活動水平外，我們繼續看到基於通貨膨脹的自動扶梯的健康貢獻。在我們最大的國際市場巴西，我們有另一個非常強勁的季度。按固定匯率計算，巴西同塔有機增長率為 13.2%。與第三季度類似，正如預期的那樣，國際客戶流失在第四季度仍然居高不下，這主要是由於運營商整合和 Digicel 先前宣布退出巴拿馬。

During the fourth quarter, 78.5% of consolidated cash site leasing revenue was denominated in U.S. dollars. The majority of non-U.S. dollar-denominated revenue was from Brazil. With Brazil representing 15.1% of consolidated cash site leasing revenues during the quarter and 12.1% of cash site leasing revenue, excluding revenues from pass-through expenses. Tower cash flow for the fourth quarter was $485.9 million. Our tower cash flow margins remain very strong as well with a fourth quarter domestic tower cash flow margin of 85% and an international tower cash flow margin of 69.4% or 90.9%, excluding the impact of pass-through reimbursable expenses.

第四季度，78.5% 的綜合現金網站租賃收入以美元計價。大部分非美元計價的收入來自巴西。巴西佔本季度綜合現金場地租賃收入的 15.1% 和現金場地租賃收入的 12.1%，不包括轉嫁費用收入。 Tower 第四季度的現金流為 4.859 億美元。我們的鐵塔現金流利潤率仍然非常強勁，第四季度國內鐵塔現金流利潤率為 85%，國際鐵塔現金流利潤率為 69.4% 或 90.9%，不包括轉嫁可報銷費用的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $460.7 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 68.1% in the quarter, again, impacted slightly by outsized services revenue. Excluding the impact of revenues and pass-through expenses, adjusted EBITDA margin was 73.1%. Approximately 96% of our total adjusted EBITDA was attributable to our tower leasing business in the fourth quarter.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.607 億美元。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 68.1%，再次受到超大服務收入的輕微影響。排除收入和轉嫁費用的影響，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 73.1%。第四季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 總額的約 96% 歸因於我們的鐵塔租賃業務。

During the fourth quarter, our Services business had another very strong quarter with $76.5 million in revenue and $19.3 million of segment operating profit. We finished 2022 with our most successful services year in company history as measured by both revenue and profit by a very wide margin. Services backlogs remain very healthy at year-end, although off the record high hit earlier in 2022. Our fourth quarter services results were again primarily driven by T-Mobile and Verizon.

在第四季度，我們的服務業務又迎來了一個非常強勁的季度，收入為 7650 萬美元，分部營業利潤為 1930 萬美元。我們在 2022 年結束了公司歷史上最成功的服務年度，無論是收入還是利潤都以非常大的利潤來衡量。服務積壓在年底仍然非常健康，儘管低於 2022 年初創下的歷史新高。我們第四季度的服務業績再次主要由 T-Mobile 和 Verizon 推動。

Adjusted funds from operations or AFFO in the fourth quarter was $340.7 million. AFFO per share was $3.12, an increase of 11% over the fourth quarter of 2021. AFFO results finished ahead of our prior outlook, but were still negatively impacted relative to our outlook assumptions by our early refinancing of $640 million of secured tower revenue securities in November at a higher interest rate than the retired debt.

第四季度來自運營或 AFFO 的調整後資金為 3.407 億美元。 AFFO 每股價格為 3.12 美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長 11%。AFFO 的業績超出了我們之前的預期，但相對於我們的前景假設，我們在11 月的利率高於退休債務。

During the fourth quarter, we meaningfully expanded our portfolio acquiring 2,642 communication sites for total cash consideration of $736.7 million, which included 2,632 sites acquired from Grupo TorreSur in Brazil for approximately $725 million.

在第四季度，我們以 7.367 億美元的總現金對價收購了 2,642 個通訊站點，其中包括以大約 7.25 億美元的價格從巴西 Grupo TorreSur 收購的 2,632 個站點。

During the quarter, we also built 162 new sites. Subsequent to quarter end, we have purchased or are under agreement to purchase 31 sites all in our existing markets for an aggregate price of $23.2 million. We anticipate closing on these sites under contract by the end of the second quarter.

本季度，我們還新建了 162 個站點。季度末後，我們已經購買或正在同意購買我們現有市場中的 31 個地點，總價為 2320 萬美元。我們預計在第二季度末之前根據合同關閉這些站點。

In addition to new towers, we also continue to invest in the land under our sites. During the quarter, we spent an aggregate of $15.9 million to buy land and easements and to extend ground lease terms. At the end of the year, we owned or controlled for more than 20 years. The land underneath approximately 70% of our towers, and the average remaining life under our ground leases, including renewal options under our control, is approximately 36 years.

除了新的塔樓，我們還繼續投資於我們地盤下的土地。本季度，我們總共花費了 1590 萬美元購買土地和地役權並延長土地租賃期限。到年底，我們擁有或控制超過 20 年。我們大約 70% 的塔下面的土地，以及我們地面租約的平均剩餘壽命，包括我們控制的續約選擇權，約為 36 年。

Looking ahead now, this afternoon's earnings press release includes our initial outlook for full year 2023. Our outlook reflects continued year-over-year growth across our leasing business, including an increase in organic leasing revenue contributions from new leases and amendments largely due to the strong new leasing activity we experienced during 2022. We also forecast significant revenue growth contributions from nonorganic additions, primarily as a result of having the assets acquired from GTS in Brazil in our results for a full year in 2023.

展望未來，今天下午的收益新聞稿包括我們對 2023 年全年的初步展望。我們的展望反映了我們租賃業務的持續同比增長，包括新租賃和修訂的有機租賃收入貢獻的增加，這主要是由於我們在 2022 年經歷了強勁的新租賃活動。我們還預測非有機增加帶來的顯著收入增長貢獻，這主要是由於我們在 2023 年全年的業績中從巴西的 GTS 收購了資產。

In addition, our leasing revenue outlook contemplates increased impacts from customer churn in 2023. Domestically, the increase is mainly in connection with the anticipated Sprint-related decommissioning, some of which we had previously expected in 2022. Due to the timing shifts of some of these decommissionings, including during the fourth quarter, we are now including an estimate of $25 million to $30 million of Sprint-related churn in our full year outlook. Our previously provided estimates of aggregate Sprint-related churn over the next several years remain unchanged.

此外，我們的租賃收入展望預計 2023 年客戶流失的影響會增加。在國內，增長主要與預期的 Sprint 相關退役有關，我們之前預計其中一些將在 2022 年進行。由於一些時間的變化這些退役，包括在第四季度，我們現在在我們的全年展望中包括估計 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的 Sprint 相關流失。我們之前提供的對未來幾年與 Sprint 相關的總流失率的估計保持不變。

Internationally, our outlook includes increased churn as well. Including carryover impacts from Digicel in Panama and carrier consolidations in Central America. In addition, our international churn includes approximately $10 million associated with an agreement we have entered into TIM Brazil, to address their consolidation of a portion of Oi Wireless. This agreement has accelerated certain turn impacts with us in exchange for longer-term business commitments from TIM, and we believe positions us well for a long, mutually beneficial relationship with TIM. Our 2023 outlook does not include any other churn assumptions related to the Oi consolidation. But if during the year, we were to enter into any further agreements with other carriers related to this that have an impact on the current year, we would adjust our outlook accordingly at that time.

在國際上，我們的前景也包括客戶流失率的增加。包括巴拿馬 Digicel 和中美洲運營商整合的結轉影響。此外，我們的國際流失包括約 1000 萬美元，與我們與巴西 TIM 簽訂的協議相關，以解決他們對 Oi Wireless 部分業務的整合問題。該協議加速了與我們的某些轉折影響，以換取 TIM 的長期業務承諾，我們相信我們有能力與 TIM 建立長期互利的關係。我們的 2023 年展望不包括與 Oi 整合相關的任何其他流失假設。但如果在這一年中，我們與其他承運人就此達成任何對本年度產生影響的進一步協議，我們將在那時相應地調整我們的展望。

With regard to our Services business, our full year 2023 outlook reflects the year-over-year decline in revenues and adjusted EBITDA contribution but starts ahead of where our 2022 outlook started. If not for the phenomenal 2022 Services results, our outlook for 2023 would represent the best year for services in our company's history.

關於我們的服務業務，我們的 2023 年全年展望反映了收入和調整後 EBITDA 貢獻的同比下降，但比我們 2022 年展望的開始時間早。如果不是因為 2022 年服務業取得了驚人的成績，我們對 2023 年的展望將是我們公司歷史上服務業最好的一年。

As I mentioned a moment ago, we continue to have very healthy services backlog. And as a result, we expect another very strong year for this business. The outlook does not assume any further acquisitions beyond those under contract today and also does not assume any share repurchases. However, we are likely to invest in additional assets or share repurchases or both during the year. Our outlook for net cash interest expense and for AFFO does not contemplate any further financing activity in 2023, but it does assume we deploy excess cash into repayments of our outstanding revolver balance. Under this assumption, we would end the year with leverage in the mid 6x area, but we project that we would still incur approximately $36 million of increased net cash interest expense compared to 2022. Finally, our outlook for AFFO per share is based on an assumed weighted average number of diluted common shares of 109.6 million, which assumption is influenced in part by estimated future share prices. We are excited about 2023. Our customers remain active, and we expect to produce very strong results as we help them to achieve their network build-out goals.

正如我剛才提到的，我們繼續有非常健康的服務積壓。因此，我們預計該業務將迎來又一個非常強勁的一年。前景不假設任何超出當前合同的進一步收購，也不假設任何股票回購。然而，我們可能會在年內投資於額外的資產或股票回購或兩者兼而有之。我們對淨現金利息支出和 AFFO 的展望並未考慮在 2023 年進行任何進一步的融資活動，但它確實假設我們將多餘的現金用於償還未償還的循環貸款餘額。在此假設下，我們年底的槓桿率將在 6 倍左右，但我們預計與 2022 年相比，我們仍將增加約 3600 萬美元的淨現金利息支出。最後，我們對 AFFO 每股的展望基於假設稀釋普通股的加權平均數為 1.096 億股，該假設部分受到預計未來股價的影響。我們對 2023 年感到興奮。我們的客戶仍然活躍，我們希望在幫助他們實現網絡建設目標時產生非常好的結果。

Before turning the call over to Mark, I would like to take just a moment to discuss the succession plan announced this afternoon. I'm truly honored to have been entrusted with the leadership of this tremendous company. I've had the privilege of spending the last 25 years at SBA and spending all of those years working closely with Jeff as the company has grown significantly under his leadership. Jeff has been a great friend and mentor me, and I look forward to continuing to have his counsel as Chairman of the Board.

在將電話轉給馬克之前，我想花點時間討論一下今天下午宣布的繼任計劃。我真的很榮幸被委任為這家偉大公司的領導。我有幸在 SBA 度過了過去的 25 年，並在所有這些年裡與 Jeff 密切合作，因為公司在他的領導下取得了顯著發展。 Jeff 一直是我的好朋友和導師，我期待著繼續擔任董事會主席的顧問。

I'm very excited about the future of SBA. We have an amazing business that is part of a great and still growing industry. Our financial strength and very talented leadership team position us well to be a critical support to our customers and to capitalize on many future opportunities. I greatly look forward to working with the rest of the SBA team to continue rewarding shareholders and building upon the company's great legacy.

我對 SBA 的未來感到非常興奮。我們擁有一項了不起的業務，它是一個偉大且仍在發展的行業的一部分。我們的財務實力和非常有才華的領導團隊使我們能夠很好地為我們的客戶提供重要的支持，並利用許多未來的機會。我非常期待與 SBA 團隊的其他成員合作，繼續回報股東並發揚公司的偉大遺產。

With that, I'll turn things over to Mark, who will provide an update on the balance sheet.

有了這個，我會把事情交給馬克，他會提供資產負債表的更新。

Thanks, Brendan. We ended the quarter with $13 billion of total debt, and $12.8 billion of net debt. Our net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 6.9x, which is below the low end of our target range, notwithstanding our significant Brazilian GTS acquisition during the fourth quarter. Our fourth quarter net cash interest coverage ratio of adjusted EBITDA to net cash interest expense was a very strong 4.7x.

謝謝，布倫丹。本季度末，我們的總債務為 130 億美元，淨債務為 128 億美元。我們的淨債務與年化調整後 EBITDA 槓桿比率為 6.9 倍，低於我們目標範圍的低端，儘管我們在第四季度對巴西 GTS 進行了大量收購。我們第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 與淨現金利息支出的淨現金利息覆蓋率非常強勁，為 4.7 倍。

During the fourth quarter, the company through an existing trust, issued $850 million of Secured Tower Revenue Securities, which have an anticipated repayment date of January 11, 2028, and a final maturity date of November 9, 2052. The fixed interest rate on these securities is 6.599%. The net proceeds of this offering were used to repay the entire $640 million principal amount of our 2018-1C Tower Securities, which had an anticipated repayment date of March 2023 as well as to pay certain amounts outstanding under the company's revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes. Subsequent to quarter end, we continue to use cash on hand to repay amounts outstanding under the revolver. And as of today, we have $585 million outstanding under our $1.5 billion revolver.

第四季度，公司通過現有信託發行了 8.5 億美元的 Secured Tower Revenue Securities，預計還款日期為 2028 年 1 月 11 日，最終到期日為 2052 年 11 月 9 日。這些證券的固定利率證券為6.599%。本次發行的淨收益用於償還我們 2018-1C Tower 證券的全部 6.4 億美元本金，預計還款日期為 2023 年 3 月，以及支付公司循環信貸額度下的某些未償還款項和一般公司宗旨。季度末後，我們繼續使用手頭現金償還循環貸款下的未償還款項。截至今天，在我們 15 億美元的左輪手槍下，我們有 5.85 億美元未償還。

The current weighted average interest of our total outstanding debt is 3.1% with a weighted average maturity of approximately 4 years. The current rate on our outstanding revolver balance is 6.0%. The interest rate on 93% of our current outstanding debt is fixed. During the quarter, we did not repurchase any shares of our common stock as we allocated capital to repay amounts outstanding under revolver as a result of the GTS acquisition. We currently have $504 million of repurchase authorization remaining under our $1 billion stock repurchase plan.

我們未償還債務總額的當前加權平均利率為 3.1%，加權平均期限約為 4 年。我們未償還的左輪手槍餘額的當前利率為 6.0%。我們當前未償還債務中 93% 的利率是固定的。在本季度，我們沒有回購任何普通股，因為我們分配資金以償還因 GTS 收購而在循環貸款項下未償還的金額。根據我們 10 億美元的股票回購計劃，我們目前還有 5.04 億美元的回購授權。

The company's shares outstanding at December 31, 2022, were 108 million compared to 109 million at December 31, 2021, a reduction of 0.9%. In addition, during the fourth quarter, we declared and paid a cash dividend of $76.7 million or $0.71 per share. And today, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a first quarter dividend of $0.85 per share payable on March 24, 2023, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 10, 2023. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 20% over the dividend paid in the fourth quarter.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，公司已發行股票為 1.08 億股，而 2021 年 12 月 31 日為 1.09 億股，減少 0.9%。此外，在第四季度，我們宣布並支付了 7670 萬美元或每股 0.71 美元的現金股息。今天，我們宣布，我們的董事會宣布將於 2023 年 3 月 24 日向截至 2023 年 3 月 10 日營業結束時登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.85 美元的第一季度股息。該股息增加了約 20 % 超過第四季度支付的股息。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

有了這個，我現在把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Mark. And good evening, everyone. The fourth quarter was a strong end to one of the best operational years in our history. For the full year 2022, we beat the midpoint of our original full year guidance for revenue by almost 8% for AFFO per share by 5%. We grew our tower portfolio by over 15%, including entering into a new market in Tanzania, which has gone very well. We had a very strong year for lease-up, including one of the best ever internationally. Our Services business had its best year ever, beating the midpoint of our original outlook for services revenue by 46%. And we grew and expanded our relationships with our largest customers worldwide, setting us up for a bright future.

謝謝，馬克。大家晚上好。第四季度是我們歷史上最好的運營年度之一的強勢結束。對於 2022 年全年，我們將 AFFO 的每股收入提高了近 8%，超出了我們最初的全年收入指導的中點 5%。我們的塔式產品組合增長了 15% 以上，包括進入坦桑尼亞的新市場，進展順利。我們有一個非常強勁的租賃年，包括有史以來最好的國際之一。我們的服務業務取得了有史以來最好的一年，比我們最初的服務收入預期中值高出 46%。我們發展並擴大了與全球最大客戶的關係，為我們創造了光明的未來。

During the fourth quarter, our domestic same tower leasing revenue growth was the highest of the year. All of our largest U.S. customers remain busy during the quarter with relatively balanced contributions from each of them as they continued adding equipment to sites in support of the deployment of new spectrum bands. As evidenced by our full year 2023 outlook, we expect the contribution to revenue growth from domestic leases and amendments to be good again this year. And we expect all of our largest customers to stay relatively busy with additional network deployment during 2023, although perhaps at levels slightly below the peak periods of activity we experienced in 2022. Each of the largest U.S. carriers still have significant remaining network needs. So we are confident we will see solid activity on our domestic power portfolio for years to come.

第四季度，我們國內同塔租賃收入增長是全年最高的。我們所有最大的美國客戶在本季度仍然很忙，他們每個人的貢獻相對平衡，因為他們繼續向站點添加設備以支持新頻段的部署。正如我們的 2023 年全年展望所證明的那樣，我們預計今年國內租賃和修改對收入增長的貢獻將再次良好。我們預計我們所有最大的客戶在 2023 年都將相對忙於額外的網絡部署，儘管其水平可能略低於我們在 2022 年經歷的活動高峰期。美國最大的每家運營商仍然有大量剩餘的網絡需求。因此，我們有信心在未來幾年內看到我們國內電力組合的穩健活動。

Internationally, we ended the year with another very strong organic leasing quarter. During the fourth quarter, 60% of new business signed up in the quarter came from amendments to existing leases and 40% gain through new leases. International leasing activity was ahead of our internal expectations and led by strong contributions from Brazil, South Africa and Tanzania, our largest markets.

在國際上，我們以另一個非常強勁的有機租賃季度結束了這一年。第四季度，本季度簽約的新業務中有 60% 來自對現有租約的修訂，40% 的收益來自新租約。國際租賃活動超出了我們的內部預期，主要得益於我們最大的市場巴西、南非和坦桑尼亞的強勁貢獻。

In 2022, Brazil had, in particular, a very strong year. Lease-up in Brazil for the year was well ahead of internal expectations, and we also had a larger-than-anticipated contribution from CPI-based escalators. We realized material portfolio growth in Brazil, primarily as a result of the GTS acquisition for which the integration is going very smoothly.

2022 年，巴西的表現尤其強勁。巴西今年的租賃量遠超內部預期，我們也從基於 CPI 的自動扶梯中獲得了高於預期的貢獻。我們在巴西實現了重大投資組合增長，這主要是由於 GTS 收購的整合進展非常順利。

The foreign exchange rate fluctuations have stabilized over the last year and were actually a slight tailwind to our 2022 results. As Brendan mentioned, we recently entered into an agreement with 1 of the 3 major carriers in Brazil to address Oi consolidation issues in our broader long-term relationship, and we may do something similar with our other major customers in that market. We believe there are great opportunities for future growth in Brazil, particularly with recent 5G spectrum options as the driver.

外匯匯率波動在去年穩定下來，實際上對我們 2022 年的業績略有助益。正如 Brendan 提到的，我們最近與巴西 3 家主要運營商中的 1 家達成協議，以解決我們更廣泛的長期關係中的 Oi 整合問題，我們可能會與該市場的其他主要客戶做類似的事情。我們相信巴西未來的增長存在巨大機遇，尤其是在最近的 5G 頻譜選擇作為驅動力的情況下。

One item we are watching in Brazil is always recent filing for injunctive relief from some of their debt payments. We currently expect that Oi must and will continue to pay their operational vendors, including rents to tower providers. And to date, we have had no collection issues. Our financial exposure to Oi is much reduced given the recent sale of most of their wireless operations to the other 3 mobile carriers in Brazil, with Oi representing approximately 3.5% of our total international revenue. Our sites are critical to the operation of Oi's network, and we have very long-term leases. As a result, we will likely see a little impact from this latest filing. However, we will, of course, continue to monitor the situation closely.

我們在巴西關注的一個項目總是最近申請禁令減免他們的部分債務。我們目前預計 Oi 必須並且將繼續向其運營供應商付款，包括向鐵塔供應商支付租金。到目前為止，我們沒有遇到任何收集問題。我們對 Oi 的財務風險大大降低，因為他們最近將大部分無線業務出售給了巴西的其他 3 家移動運營商，Oi 約占我們國際總收入的 3.5%。我們的網站對 Oi 網絡的運營至關重要，而且我們有非常長期的租約。因此，我們可能會看到這份最新文件的影響不大。不過，我們當然會繼續密切關注事態發展。

Moving on now to our balance sheet. We remain in a very strong position. During the fourth quarter, in order to address the nearing maturity date, we completed a new 5-year ABS offering. And while the interest rate was higher than we would have liked, we were very pleased with the significant level of demand for our offering. We continue to be a preferred issuer with extremely good access to capital. While we have good access to additional debt capital, we will be very thoughtful this year when considering issuing incremental debt in the current rate environment, which would only be done for a compelling use of capital, similar to our Tanzanian GTS acquisitions 2022. With completion of this refinancing, we now do not have any debt maturities until October of 2024.

現在轉到我們的資產負債表。我們仍然處於非常有利的地位。在第四季度，為了解決即將到期的問題，我們完成了新的 5 年期 ABS 發行。雖然利率高於我們的預期，但我們對我們產品的大量需求感到非常滿意。我們仍然是首選發行人，擁有極佳的融資渠道。雖然我們可以很好地獲得額外的債務資本，但今年我們在考慮在當前利率環境下發行增量債務時會非常慎重，只有在強制使用資本的情況下才會這樣做，類似於我們 2022 年的坦桑尼亞 GTS 收購。完成後在這次再融資中，我們現在沒有任何債務到期，直到 2024 年 10 月。

We finished the year with 93% of our debt fixed, keeping us largely insulated for the time being from significant interest rate fluctuations. Even with the GTS acquisition, we ended the year with a net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 6.9x, below our target range. The strength of our operations and balance sheet and the steady growth in our cash flow allowed us to once again announce an increase of nearly 20% in our quarterly dividend. This increased dividend still represents only approximately 27% of our projected AFFO and our 2023 outlook, leaving us substantial capital for additional investment in portfolio growth, stock repurchases and revolver payments.

我們在年底時固定了 93% 的債務，這使我們暫時基本上不受利率大幅波動的影響。即使收購了 GTS，我們年底的淨債務與年化調整後 EBITDA 槓桿比率仍為 6.9 倍，低於我們的目標範圍。我們的運營和資產負債表的實力以及現金流的穩定增長使我們能夠再次宣布季度股息增加近 20%。增加的股息仍僅占我們預計的 AFFO 和 2023 年展望的約 27%，這使我們有大量資金用於投資組合增長、股票回購和循環支付的額外投資。

The strength of our business and capital structure was recently recognized by the rating agency Standard & Poor's. Since our third quarter earnings release, S&P increased our corporate rating to BB+, only one notch below investment grade. While a good development, we do not, however, have a specific goal of being an investment-grade company. Should we continue to use AFFO to pay down our revolver and reduce leverage, that would be a tactical choice to generate a guaranteed return to the higher interest rate environment compared to other uses of capital and not a change in our long-term views on the use of leverage. We would be building capacity and biding our time for the next opportunity to issue incremental debt at more attractive rates. We believe the stability and financial strength we offer provides shareholders strong opportunities for additional value creation.

我們的業務實力和資本結構最近得到了評級機構標準普爾的認可。自我們發布第三季度財報以來，標準普爾將我們的公司評級上調至 BB+，僅比投資級別低一級。雖然發展良好，但我們並沒有成為投資級公司的具體目標。如果我們繼續使用 AFFO 來償還我們的左輪手槍並降低杠桿率，與其他資本用途相比，這將是一種戰術選擇，可以在更高的利率環境中產生有保證的回報，而不是改變我們對槓桿的使用。我們將建設能力並等待下一次機會以更具吸引力的利率發行增量債務。我們相信，我們提供的穩定性和財務實力為股東提供了創造額外價值的強大機會。

I want to end on our succession news. The Board and I have been working on succession planning for several years. We appropriately considered the pros and cons of an external search versus the appointment of an internal candidate as our next CEO. Brendan has, for many years, been growing as the leading internal candidate to be our next CEO with increasing internal and external responsibilities. We are confident we have made the right call. Brendan is an extremely talented executive, equally adept with internal and our external matters, strategy and shareholder value creation. His knowledge of SBA and our industry are (inaudible). He's well known and respected in the investment community. SBA has an extremely bright future in his hands, and I get to remain very involved and invested in that as the future Chairman of the Board.

我想以我們的繼任新聞結束。董事會和我多年來一直致力於繼任計劃。我們適當地考慮了外部搜索與任命內部候選人作為我們下一任首席執行官的利弊。多年來，布倫丹一直在成長為我們下一任首席執行官的主要內部候選人，並承擔越來越多的內部和外部責任。我們相信我們做出了正確的決定。 Brendan 是一位非常有才華的高管，同樣精通內部和外部事務、戰略和股東價值創造。他對 SBA 和我們行業的了解（聽不清）。他在投資界廣為人知並受人尊敬。 SBA 擁有極其光明的未來，作為未來的董事會主席，我將繼續積極參與並投資於此。

So a little bit about my decision. It's been very difficult, as you can imagine, given my love for involvement with SBA for more than 25 years. But the reasons are very simple. I turned 65 this year. And I've reached a point in life where I want to do some things while I still can, but I can't do while running SBA full time. Things like spending more time with family, a growing number of grandchildren, travel, spending more time at our home in South Carolina and charity work, very basic reasons that I believe we all consider at various times in our life. With these things buying for my time and attention, it became clear that now is the right time to turn over leadership to Brendan and the next generation of our exceptional leaders.

關於我的決定的一點點。考慮到我 25 年來對參與 SBA 的熱愛，這非常困難，您可以想像。但原因很簡單。今年我 65 歲了。我已經到了人生的一個階段，我想在我還能做的時候做一些事情，但我不能在全職運行 SBA 時做。諸如花更多時間陪伴家人、越來越多的孫輩、旅行、花更多時間在南卡羅來納州的家中以及慈善工作，我相信我們在生活的不同時期都會考慮這些非常基本的原因。這些事情佔用了我的時間和注意力，很明顯，現在是將領導權移交給 Brendan 和我們下一代傑出領導者的最佳時機。

As you can see from our fourth quarter results and full year 2023 outlook, I am retiring at a time when SBA's financial help and prospects are extremely strong. I want to thank all of you on this call or otherwise that have played a role in SBA's success over the years. We have accomplished a lot, and it certainly has taken the work of many. I consider myself extremely fortunate have had the opportunity to lead such a talented group of individuals as we have at SBA, and to have been able to interact and build relationships with a much larger group of customers, constituents, friends, business partners and others who have all contributed to our success.

正如您從我們的第四季度業績和 2023 年全年展望中看到的那樣，我在 SBA 的財務幫助和前景非常強勁的時候退休。我要感謝所有參加此次電話會議或以其他方式為 SBA 多年來的成功做出貢獻的人。我們已經取得了很多成就，當然也需要很多人的努力。我認為自己非常幸運，有機會領導像 SBA 這樣一群才華橫溢的人，並能夠與更多的客戶、選民、朋友、業務合作夥伴和其他人進行互動和建立關係。都為我們的成功做出了貢獻。

And with that, Eric, we are now ready for questions.

有了這個，埃里克，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Ric Prentiss with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Ric Prentiss 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

First, Jeff, congrats. Grandbabies are fine. I know you're going to have fun with them as I am. And Brendan, looking forward to working with you in your new role.

首先，傑夫，恭喜。孫子們都很好我知道你會像我一樣和他們一起玩得開心。 Brendan，期待在您的新角色中與您共事。

Thank you, Ric.

謝謝你，里克。

Thanks, Ric.

謝謝，里克。

Two questions, if I could. First, as you think about carrier spending for wireless, obviously, they need to make sure there's revenue and demand out there, what do you all think are the most exciting 5G applications that are coming? And when do customers actually start to get what 5G means? That's the first question.

兩個問題，如果可以的話。首先，當你考慮運營商的無線支出時，顯然，他們需要確保那裡有收入和需求，你們認為即將到來的最令人興奮的 5G 應用是什麼？客戶什麼時候真正開始了解 5G 的含義？這是第一個問題。

Yes, I think that is the seminal question, Ric. And I think, to be honest with you, I can't name a 5G application that exists today that is kind of in the got to have category. And I think that's what the whole ecosystem of wireless is waiting on. And when that happens, and I believe it's a question of when, not if, you're going to see a heightened sense of needing to invest and make sure that the competition doesn't get too far ahead. But until that comes along, I think it's sensible for our customers, particularly ones that have some promises to the Street on free cash flow and things like that, I think, to moderate. And based on all the commentary and what we heard from Ericsson yesterday, I mean that's what's going on.

是的，我認為這是開創性的問題，Ric。而且我認為，老實說，我不能說出今天存在的 5G 應用程序，它屬於必須擁有的類別。我認為這就是整個無線生態系統所期待的。當這種情況發生時，我相信問題是什麼時候，而不是是否，你會看到一種更強烈的投資需求，並確保競爭不會遙遙領先。但在這種情況出現之前，我認為對我們的客戶來說，特別是那些對華爾街承諾自由現金流和類似事情的客戶，我認為，適度是明智的。根據所有評論和我們昨天從愛立信那裡聽到的消息，我的意思是這就是正在發生的事情。

And then more boring question for the second one. How should we think about the site leasing revenue growth pacing into the years in kind of the front-end loaded versus rear-end loaded. And it looked like that have a couple of major revenue bridge items for other, $12 million in the U.S. and $8 million for international. So maybe unpack that a little bit about what those are.

然後是第二個更無聊的問題。我們應該如何考慮前端加載與後端加載的場地租賃收入增長步伐。看起來它有幾個主要的收入橋樑項目，在美國為 1200 萬美元，在國際上為 800 萬美元。因此，也許可以稍微了解一下這些是什麼。

Yes, Ric. So the pacing this year, we would expect will be higher growth in the first half of the year with a slight step down in the second half of the year. That obviously is dependent somewhat on how leasing activity goes in terms of signing up new business here in the first half of the year. But the first half is pretty much locked in for the most part based on the success of the leasing activity we saw at the end of last year. I mean your second part, you were breaking up just a little bit. I think you were asking about the other on international. Is that...

是的，里克。因此，今年的步伐，我們預計上半年將有更高的增長，下半年將略有放緩。這顯然在某種程度上取決於今年上半年在這裡簽約新業務方面的租賃活動情況。但基於我們在去年年底看到的租賃活動的成功，上半年幾乎已經鎖定。我的意思是你的第二部分，你只是分手了一點。我想你問的是關於國際的另一個問題。就是它...

It was like USD 12 million, $8 million international. What should we think those are?

大概是 1200 萬美元，國際 800 萬美元。我們應該認為那些是什麼？

Yes. So it's a variety of things. In the case of international, there are some increases to pass-through expenses, which is the main driver. And then in the U.S., it's a mixed bag. There's some other, what we kind of call, cash basis revenue that we've assumed will come in the first half. So it's things like that. That's really just our estimate of the year-over-year change as opposed to an absolute change as the business gets a little bit bigger, those things tend to grow.

是的。所以這是各種各樣的事情。就國際而言，轉嫁費用有所增加，這是主要驅動因素。然後在美國，它是一個混合包。還有一些我們稱之為現金基礎的收入，我們假設這些收入將在上半年出現。事情就是這樣。這實際上只是我們對同比變化的估計，而不是隨著業務規模的擴大而發生的絕對變化，這些事情往往會增長。

Again, congrats, Jeff, and enjoy the time of the grandbabies.

再次祝賀你，傑夫，享受孫子們的時光吧。

Thanks, Ric.

謝謝，里克。

And our next question comes from the line of Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Cusick。

Congratulations to both of you, Jeff and Brendan. Well deserved.

祝賀你們倆，Jeff 和 Brendan。應得的。

Thanks, Phil.

謝謝，菲爾。

Thank you, Phil.

謝謝你，菲爾。

I wonder if we could just talk about the sort of pace that you assume of either acceleration or deceleration among your carrier customers this year. It seems like through last year, you were sort of looking for somebody to pick up. And maybe they haven't yet, while others sort of expectation will be slowing down this year. What kind of visibility do you have today?

我想知道我們是否可以談談您認為今年您的運營商客戶加速或減速的步伐。似乎從去年開始，你就一直在尋找可以接手的人。也許他們還沒有，而其他人今年的期望將會放緩。你今天有什麼樣的能見度？

Well, we've got decent visibility. As I just mentioned to Ric, generally, we expect things to be declining in terms of the growth rate from the first half of the year into the second half of the year. The mix varies by carriers. We had a couple of carriers that were extremely busy last year. We expect them to still be busy this year, but perhaps not at the same pace. So I think that's probably the main driver, those that are picking up and will really just be dependent on the timing of when we see that accelerate. So I think if you look at last year and you look at the pace at which it increased throughout the year, it's probably a little bit more of a modest decline this year than it was an increase last year.

嗯，我們有不錯的能見度。正如我剛才對 Ric 提到的，一般來說，我們預計從今年上半年到下半年的增長率會下降。混合因運營商而異。去年我們有幾家航空公司非常繁忙。我們預計他們今年仍會很忙，但速度可能會有所不同。所以我認為這可能是主要的驅動因素，那些正在回升的人實際上只取決於我們看到加速的時間。所以我認為，如果你看看去年，看看它全年的增長速度，今年的下降幅度可能比去年的上升幅度要小一些。

And I'm just curious...

我只是好奇...

We still see several or more than one, let's say, picking up. And really, it's just the delta between what decelerates versus what accelerates. But they're not all moving, I think. As you know, they're not all equal in terms of their build-outs and what they've accomplished. So the ones that are furthest ahead are likely to have more on the deceleration side, and the ones that still have a long way to go will be accelerating.

我們仍然看到幾個或不止一個，比方說，在撿拾。實際上，這只是減速與加速之間的差值。但我認為它們並沒有全部移動。如您所知，他們在擴建和取得的成就方面並不完全相同。因此，那些走在最前面的可能在減速方面有更多，而那些還有很長一段路要走的將在加速。

Jeff, we've mentioned a few years in the past where you've been pretty cautious to build in that acceleration in your guidance until you see the orders coming through. Is it fair to say that you're fairly cautious on that acceleration in the current guide?

傑夫，我們在過去幾年提到過，在你看到訂單通過之前，你一直非常謹慎地在你的指導中建立加速。可以說您對當前指南中的加速相當謹慎嗎？

In the aggregate, yes, with respect to certain individual U.S. carriers, I mean we know that there will be some acceleration in 2023. But again, the guide is to the aggregate, not just an individual carrier.

總體而言，是的，就某些個別美國航空公司而言，我的意思是我們知道 2023 年會有一些加速。但同樣，指南是針對總體的，而不僅僅是個別航空公司。

And then if I can, one more, just how do you think about the math on buybacks now, right? Last quarter, you made clear that borrowing money at the current rates and buying stock where it was then just didn't make a lot of sense in terms of accretion. I thought your comment today about sort of waiting for better opportunities was interesting. Do you think that either the private markets are going to start coming around given where rates are? Or do you anticipate that the sort of ratio between the current stock price and the current borrowing rates will change?

然後，如果可以的話，你現在如何看待回購的數學，對嗎？上個季度，您明確表示，以當前利率借錢併購買當時的股票在增值方面沒有多大意義。我認為您今天關於等待更好機會的評論很有趣。考慮到利率，您是否認為私人市場會開始出現？或者您是否預計當前股價與當前借貸利率之間的比率會發生變化？

Well, with the revolver, you have a guaranteed return of 6%, right, to pay that back. And the corollary to that is a 16x, at least on today's AFFO accretion, a 16x acquisition or stock repurchase. We're always going to be stock repurchases, Phil, and it's really a question of picking the right time against the right cost of debt capital. And that may -- there may be very well opportunities to do that this year, and we will do that.

好吧，有了左輪手槍，你就有 6% 的保證回報率，對吧，來償還這筆錢。其必然結果是 16 倍，至少在今天的 AFFO 增長中，16 倍的收購或股票回購。菲爾，我們總是會進行股票回購，這實際上是一個選擇合適的時間和合適的債務資本成本的問題。這可能 - 今年可能會有很好的機會這樣做，我們將這樣做。

In terms of acquisitions, I do think the market is starting to narrow the gap a little bit, but there's still a gap. And if we see opportunities like we did Tanzania GTS, we'll take a hard look.

在收購方面，我確實認為市場開始稍微縮小差距，但差距仍然存在。如果我們看到像坦桑尼亞 GTS 那樣的機會，我們會認真考慮。

But we're very financially-driven. And something we'll have to look better, short, long, medium term than repaying our revolver. I mean we do think that interest rates will come down over time. We are going to be betting on the side of the Fed that they reduce inflation to 2% over time, and we know what effect that will have on interest rates. And when that plays itself out, we will have put ourselves in a great position to access incremental debt at prices that will be much more accretive to what we're doing, and we're happy to do that and wait for that time.

但我們非常注重經濟。從短期、長期、中期來看，我們必須看起來比償還我們的左輪手槍更好。我的意思是我們確實認為利率會隨著時間的推移而下降。我們將押注美聯儲一方，他們會隨著時間的推移將通脹率降至 2%，我們知道這將對利率產生什麼影響。當這種情況發生時，我們將處於有利地位，可以以對我們正在做的事情更具增值作用的價格獲得增量債務，我們很樂意這樣做並等待那個時候。

And the next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Simon Flannery 與 Morgan Stanley 的對話。

Congrats to you, Jeff and Brendan. On leverage, I think you've noted a couple of times, 6.9%, below the target leverage level. So it sounds like even though you referenced perhaps getting to mid-6s, there's really no change despite the rate environment in your long-term target of 7% to 7.5%. Just wanted to clarify that. And then one of your peers noted on their earnings call in January that they are only seeing the big 3 carriers adding mid-band spectrum to about half of the towers in their portfolio. It would be great if you could just comment on what you're seeing with your activity from those companies.

祝賀你，傑夫和布倫丹。關於槓桿，我想你已經註意到幾次，6.9%，低於目標槓桿水平。所以聽起來即使你提到可能達到 6s 中期，但實際上沒有變化，儘管你的長期目標是 7% 到 7.5% 的利率環境。只是想澄清一下。然後，您的一位同行在 1 月份的財報電話會議上指出，他們只看到三大運營商將中頻頻譜添加到其產品組合中大約一半的發射塔。如果您能就您在這些公司的活動中看到的內容髮表評論，那就太好了。

Yes. You're -- what you said about how we're thinking about leverage is absolutely correct, Simon. This is a period of time that we're tactically steering. And we may not. We may see an acquisition tomorrow that looks much better than paying down the revolver at 6%. And if we do, that's what we will do. But if we don't, the natural result of the cash flows that we generate will be deleveraging, but it will only be temporary until such time as we believe incremental debt at the prices then available will create additional value, and that's what we will do.

是的。你是——你所說的關於我們如何考慮槓桿的說法是絕對正確的，西蒙。這是我們在戰術上指導的一段時間。我們可能不會。明天我們可能會看到一筆收購，看起來比支付 6% 的左輪手槍要好得多。如果我們這樣做，那就是我們會做的。但如果我們不這樣做，我們產生的現金流的自然結果將是去槓桿化，但這只是暫時的，直到我們相信以當時可用價格增加的債務將創造額外價值，這就是我們將要做的做。

Yes. And then on the carriers adding mid-band only half the sites, I can't speak to what the others are talking about. I think it's our belief and expectation that they will add it to the vast majority of their sites. That comment may have been related to where they are today, which parity. And there's still a long way to go, I think, is the overarching message here. A lot of our sites have not been touched yet. But based on backlogs and communications with our customers, we expect that, that will come over the coming years.

是的。然後在運營商上只添加了一半的中頻站點，我不能說其他人在說什麼。我認為這是我們的信念和期望，他們會將其添加到他們的絕大多數網站中。該評論可能與他們今天所處的位置有關，即平價。還有很長的路要走，我認為，這是這裡的首要信息。我們的很多網站還沒有被觸及。但基於積壓和與我們客戶的溝通，我們預計，這將在未來幾年內實現。

Yes. And actually, if you're speaking today, Simon, we actually think that we're a little bit less than that on the aggregate for all 3. So there's a lot of work left to be done. But it ties into the question Ric asked first that is the -- what is going to cause the carriers to really spend everything this year to get there, and I think we have to see the killer 3G app that is going to provide the impetus to do that.

是的。事實上，如果你今天發言，西蒙，我們實際上認為我們比所有 3 個人的總和少一點。所以還有很多工作要做。但這與 Ric 首先提出的問題有關——什麼會導致運營商今年真正花費一切來實現這一目標，我認為我們必須看到殺手級 3G 應用程序，它將提供動力去做。

Sure. And just to clarify...

當然。只是為了澄清......

I said 3G app, 5G app.

我說3G app，5G app。

Right. So this is probably not a year where you necessarily will hit that 5% to 10% portfolio growth. You were strong last year. But if the opportunity is there, you'll do it, but you're not going to just do it to keep up that sort of target.

正確的。因此，今年可能不一定會達到 5% 到 10% 的投資組合增長。去年你很堅強。但如果有機會，你就會去做，但你不會只是為了保持那種目標而去做。

No, no. And if you look at what we've done over the last 10 years on that metric of portfolio growth, I think we're north of 10%. So it's not every year necessarily. This may not be the year that we do that, but we did 15% last year. So I think overall, our views around portfolio growth and leverage have not changed.

不，不。如果你看看過去 10 年我們在投資組合增長指標方面所做的工作，我認為我們超過了 10%。所以不一定每年都有。今年可能不是我們這樣做的一年，但去年我們做了 15%。所以我認為總體而言，我們對投資組合增長和槓桿的看法沒有改變。

And the next question comes from the line of Greg Williams with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Greg Williams 和 Cowen 的對話。

Great. Just echoing the congrats to Jeff and Brendan. Just wanted to revisit the M&A landscape question. I mean there seems to be 2 camps on where multiples are headed in the private assets. One is, some believe private capital is going to -- that's on the sideline is eventually going to dry up and private multiples could come down a bit. The other camp, the scarcity of assets, especially U.S. assets and the tower multiples should stay elevated. It sounds like you're waiting for rates to come down so the multiples will stay higher. I'm just curious to hear your thoughts on those views.

偉大的。只是回應對 Jeff 和 Brendan 的祝賀。只是想重新審視併購格局問題。我的意思是，似乎有兩個陣營在私人資產的倍數走向。一是，一些人認為私人資本將會——旁觀者最終會枯竭，私人資本倍數可能會有所下降。另一個陣營，資產的稀缺性，尤其是美國資產和塔樓市盈率應該保持高位。聽起來您正在等待利率下降，以便倍數保持較高水平。我只是想听聽您對這些觀點的看法。

Second question is just on service margins. I mean your service revenue is coming down understandably from a record levels. But how should we think about the type of service activity and the margins year-over-year?

第二個問題只是關於服務利潤率。我的意思是您的服務收入從創紀錄的水平下降是可以理解的。但是我們應該如何考慮服務活動的類型和同比利潤率呢？

Well, I mean rates versus multiples. If you look at any kind of traditional economic analysis, there should be a relationship between one and the other. We didn't see a lot of that over the last couple of years. As rates have gone up, multiples really did not drop the way they should have had, at least using our math. That's starting to change a little bit, and we'll have to see. We'll have to see whether the amount of private capital on the sidelines will long term push returns down in the acquisition market across the board. We're not prepared to invest with those returns. We've got higher goals, and we pick and choose. And so far, I think we've been pretty pleased with the capital we've invested versus the return that we're seeking, but I think it remains to be seen.

好吧，我的意思是利率與倍數。如果你看任何一種傳統的經濟分析，它們之間應該存在某種關係。在過去的幾年裡，我們並沒有看到很多這樣的事情。隨著利率上升，倍數確實沒有按照應有的方式下降，至少使用我們的數學計算是這樣。這開始有所改變，我們拭目以待。我們必須看看觀望的私人資本數量是否會長期全面壓低收購市場的回報。我們不准備用這些回報進行投資。我們有更高的目標，我們挑挑揀揀。到目前為止，我認為我們對我們投資的資本與我們正在尋求的回報相當滿意，但我認為這還有待觀察。

And then Greg, on your services margin question, our outlook assumes a slightly lower margin for services work this year, and that's based on primarily just a slight shift mix -- sorry, shift in the mix of whether it's construction or site act type of work. So the construction stuff is usually a little bit lower margin, also a mix on the type of work and who we're doing the work for has some impact. But from a big picture standpoint, it's a fairly small drop from what we had last year, and we'll see how it shakes out. If it ends up being the same, we'll have slightly better results than we projected.

然後 Greg，關於你的服務利潤率問題，我們的展望假設今年服務工作的利潤率略低，這主要是基於輕微的轉變組合——抱歉，無論是建築還是現場行為類型的轉變工作。因此，建築材料的利潤率通常會略低一些，同時也會對工作類型和我們為誰做這項工作產生一些影響。但從大局的角度來看，與去年相比，下降幅度很小，我們將拭目以待。如果它最終是一樣的，我們會得到比我們預期的更好的結果。

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克爾羅林斯。

For the first question, I'll preface this by saying that I realize it hasn't even been 2 hours since you've given the full year 2023 guidance. But a question that keeps coming up is if the second half of 2023 in the U.S. business decelerates, what does that mean for growth in 2024? And Jeff, I realized you made some comments both in the release and on today's call about some of those prospects. But just wondering if you could put more color on how you'd like investors to feel about this multiyear transition and leasing opportunity, if you could put some guardrails around it.

對於第一個問題，我首先要說的是，我意識到距離您給出 2023 年全年指導還不到 2 個小時。但一個不斷出現的問題是，如果 2023 年下半年美國企業減速，這對 2024 年的增長意味著什麼？傑夫，我意識到你在發布會上和今天的電話會議上都對其中一些前景發表了一些評論。但只是想知道你是否可以在你希望投資者如何看待這個多年的過渡和租賃機會上添加更多顏色，如果你可以在它周圍設置一些護欄。

And then just secondly, if you can give us an update on what the build-to-suit opportunities might look like more broadly over the next few years. And is there a way to accelerate that program to get greater portfolio growth?

其次，如果你能向我們介紹一下未來幾年更廣泛的定制機會的最新情況。有沒有辦法加快該計劃以獲得更大的投資組合增長？

Yes. I think the way we think about leasing, Michael, is there is a lot of work left to be done on our assets domestically and internationally to deploy 5G, multiple years' worth of work. But ultimately, whether -- how far that goes and at what pace will depend on how much and how fast carriers want to spend money. So we -- it's going to -- we're confident it's going to occur. It's just a question of when and at what pace. But the physical work that is yet to be done is tremendous. There's just a lot left to be done. Now I guess you could take the -- because if you were a naysayer, you could take the position that, well, they're just never going to deploy all that spectrum that they spend all that money on, but that seems to be a bit forward. So those are the guardrails that we're looking at. And right now, and this could certainly change based on pickups in activity, that we're going to have a very strong 2023, where the first half is weighted more heavily than the back half.

是的。邁克爾，我認為我們對租賃的看法是，我們在國內和國際上的資產還有很多工作要做，以部署 5G，需要多年的工作。但最終，是否——能走多遠以及速度將取決於運營商想要花錢的數量和速度。所以我們——它會——我們相信它會發生。這只是時間和速度的問題。但是尚未完成的體力勞動是巨大的。還有很多事情要做。現在我想你可以接受——因為如果你是一個反對者，你可以採取這樣的立場，好吧，他們永遠不會部署他們花了所有錢購買的所有頻譜，但這似乎是向前一點。所以這些就是我們正在研究的護欄。而現在，這肯定會根據活動的增加而改變，我們將有一個非常強勁的 2023 年，上半年比後半部分的權重更大。

And in terms of build-to-suits, we're pushing that business line, both in the U.S. and internationally. We continue to be financially-driven in the investments that we make in that area. So not every build-to-suit is necessarily, at least in our view, an appropriate return on capital. But we're going to seek out and try and take all the ones that we think do fit those goals.

在定制方面，我們正在美國和國際上推動這條業務線。我們在該領域的投資中繼續受到財務驅動。因此，至少在我們看來，並非每一次定制都必然具有適當的資本回報率。但我們將尋找並嘗試採用所有我們認為符合這些目標的方法。

And just a curiosity, where are year 1 returns for the build-to-suit program?

只是出於好奇，定制項目的第一年回報在哪裡？

But we're looking for 9%, 10%, 11% cash-on-cash returns, and that's not every opportunity that's out there.

但我們正在尋找 9%、10%、11% 的現金回報率，這並不是所有的機會。

Yes. And that's a multiyear. Year 1 will obviously vary depending on the specific situation. And frankly, Mike, that is the analysis around new build opportunities is not that different than it is for M&A, where a lot of these opportunities are competitively bid like the M&A deals are. They're just competitively bid with typically with carriers handing out those opportunities. So we do our best when we're able to find strategic opportunities to build, but the volume there is obviously less.

是的。那是多年。第一年顯然會根據具體情況而有所不同。坦率地說，邁克，圍繞新建機會的分析與併購並沒有什麼不同，其中很多機會都像併購交易一樣具有競爭力。他們只是與通常提供這些機會的運營商競爭競標。因此，當我們能夠找到建設的戰略機會時，我們會盡力而為，但那裡的數量顯然更少。

On the build-to-suit opportunities, we're making a financial decision. So we would certainly like to continue to boost our portfolio numbers, but it's all about the financial returns, and so we'll be selective there just like we are on the M&A market.

關於定制機會，我們正在做出財務決定。因此，我們當然希望繼續增加我們的投資組合數量，但這全都與財務回報有關，因此我們會像在併購市場上一樣有選擇性。

And next, we'll go to Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將與高盛一起去布雷特費爾德曼。

And I'll just echo everyone else's congrats both, Jeff and Brendan. Two questions. One, the SG&A looked a little higher than we thought. I wasn't sure if that's a step up related to some of the assets you acquired in the quarter, if maybe there's any inflationary pressures that are flowing through the P&L that we need to be thoughtful about as we model out next year or this year.

Jeff 和 Brendan，我將重複其他所有人的祝賀。兩個問題。第一，SG&A 看起來比我們想像的要高一點。我不確定這是否與您在本季度收購的某些資產有關，是否有任何通貨膨脹壓力正在流經我們在明年或今年建模時需要考慮的損益表.

And then you pointed out that the dividend payout is still a very low percentage of your AFFO. I'm just wondering where are you in terms of the payout relative to your taxable income? And do you anticipate that the payout is going to be able to remain at a relatively low portion of your AFFO? Or could something on the tax component of that change quickly over the next few years?

然後你指出股息支付在你的 AFFO 中所佔的比例仍然很低。我只是想知道相對於您的應稅收入而言，您的支出在哪裡？您是否預計支出將能夠保持在您的 AFFO 中相對較低的部分？或者在未來幾年內，稅收部分的某些內容會迅速發生變化嗎？

Yes. Just -- so on the -- I'll do the dividend one first. We have pretty significant NOL still. I believe the number is somewhere around $585 million of NOLs as of the end of the year. So that gives us a decent runway, and we should be able to keep our or percentage of AFFO at a manageable level. And although it will grow certainly each year, if we continue to grow our dividend at the same pace we have been, I still think we've got many, many years left based on how we model it out.

是的。只是 - 所以 - 我會先做股息。我們仍然有相當可觀的 NOL。我相信截至今年年底，這個數字約為 5.85 億美元的 NOL。因此，這為我們提供了一條不錯的跑道，我們應該能夠將我們或 AFFO 的百分比保持在可管理的水平。儘管它每年肯定會增長，但如果我們繼續以與以往相同的速度增長股息，我仍然認為根據我們的建模方式，我們還有很多很多年。

On the SG&A side, going forward, we did include certain bigger increases in our outlook that are largely around inflationary-type costs. Most of our SG&A is people-related costs. And on average, we're giving bigger increases to people this year than we have in past years, just cost of living is increasing, and also to be competitive in the marketplaces that we're in. So it's mostly that. There's nothing in particular, I think, to call out otherwise.

在 SG&A 方面，展望未來，我們確實在我們的前景中包含了一些更大的增長，這些增長主要圍繞通貨膨脹型成本。我們的大部分 SG&A 都是與人員相關的成本。平均而言，今年我們給人們帶來的增長比過去幾年要多，只是生活成本在增加，而且在我們所處的市場中也具有競爭力。所以主要是這樣。我認為沒有什麼特別需要指出的。

Yes. But I would echo you ought not assume that that's going to be the same pace of increase over a multiyear period, Brett.

是的。但我會同意你不應該假設這將是多年期間相同的增長速度，布雷特。

And the next question comes from the line of Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題來自 Nick Del Deo 與 SVB MoffettNathanson 的對話。

Jeff and Brendan, again, I also want to echo the other's comments and congratulate both of you on the upcoming changes. I guess, first, you noted in your prepared remarks that revenue placed under contract in Q4 wasn't quite as strong as in Q3 and your backlogs have ticked down a bit. Are these changes of the magnitude you consider kind of typical in the course of business and to be expected? And can you share anything about what you've seen year-to-date in '23 along those lines?

Jeff 和 Brendan，我也想附和對方的意見，並祝賀你們即將到來的變化。我想，首先，您在準備好的評論中指出，第四季度合同收入不如第三季度那麼強勁，並且您的積壓訂單有所下降。您認為這些變化在業務過程中是典型的並且是可以預期的嗎？你能分享一下你在 23 年迄今為止所看到的任何東西嗎？

I mean they're clearly part of the cycle of wireless deployments over the last 20 years, Nick. We actually -- we're looking at charts -- internal charts today about the pace of activities on a quarterly basis, and this period of time really was some -- one of the longest that we've seen going back to before the 3G to 4G upgrades. So it's not unusual. And deep down, there's 2 things that our customers really care about. Are they losing ground because there's some kind of great competitive pressure coming from somewhere? And what's their free cash flow? And what did they promise the investment community? And what I think is going on now is simply a balance of that. But I would steer people to the comments we made earlier about this being a temporal thing because the physical amount of work yet to be done to bring 5G, at least to our assets, there's still a lot left.

我的意思是，它們顯然是過去 20 年無線部署週期的一部分，尼克。我們實際上——我們正在查看圖表——今天關於每季度活動速度的內部圖表，這段時間確實是一些——我們在 3G 之前看到的最長的時間之一到4G升級。所以這並不罕見。在內心深處，有兩件事是我們的客戶真正關心的。他們是否因為來自某個地方的某種巨大的競爭壓力而失去了優勢？他們的自由現金流是多少？他們向投資界承諾了什麼？我認為現在正在發生的事情只是其中的一種平衡。但我會引導人們接受我們之前發表的關於這是暫時的事情的評論，因為要實現 5G，至少對我們的資產來說，還有很多工作要做。

Okay, okay. And then I also wanted to drill down a little bit into the agreement you reached with TIM. I think you said there would be about $10 million in churn from that in 2023. Does that take care of all of your expected Oi churn from TIM. Are there any benefits to SBA aside from the term extension?

好吧好吧。然後我還想深入了解一下您與 TIM 達成的協議。我想你說過到 2023 年會有大約 1000 萬美元的流失。這是否考慮了你預期的來自 TIM 的所有 Oi 流失。除了期限延長之外，SBA 有什麼好處嗎？

And just think about Oi more generally. I think in the past, you said you expected about $20 million to $30 million in total churn. With this deal done, should we assume, call it, $10 million to $20 million from the other acquirers? Or are you now able to tighten that up some?

更廣泛地考慮 Oi。我想在過去，你說過你預計總流失量約為 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元。完成這筆交易後，我們是否應該假設從其他收購方那裡獲得 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元？或者你現在能收緊一些嗎？

Yes. First, yes. this would account for all of the Oi consolidation-related churn with TIM. There should not be any more based on the agreement that we struck. The total remaining would be in the ballpark, I would say that it's a little bit higher because of the GTS acquisition if you recall. So I would call it $23 million to $33 million is -- I'm sorry, that's a total $23 million to $33 million, minus the $10 million. So yes. I mean, I think we're -- we'll see where things go with the other carriers down there as we have conversations. So those are to be seen, but for TIM, this would be it.

是的。首先，是的。這將解釋所有與 TIM 的 Oi 整合相關的流失。不應該再有基於我們達成的協議。剩餘的總數將在大概範圍內，如果您還記得的話，我會說由於 GTS 的收購，它會稍微高一些。所以我會稱之為 2300 萬到 3300 萬美元——對不起，總計 2300 萬到 3300 萬美元，減去 1000 萬美元。所以是的。我的意思是，我認為我們是——我們會在對話時看看其他運營商的情況。所以這些都是有待觀察的，但對於 TIM 來說，就是這樣。

Yes, sorry. And then aside from the term extension, nothing else to consider from our side of the deal?

是的，對不起。那麼除了延期之外，我們這邊的交易還有什麼要考慮的嗎？

Yes. I mean there are some other things. There are some other business commitments that are part of the agreement as well, and there's a variety of smaller things. But the main gist of this is some accelerated discount to their leases, long-term commitments across the entire portfolio, including non-Oi-related agreements and some future business commitments.

是的。我的意思是還有一些其他的東西。還有一些其他業務承諾也是協議的一部分，還有各種較小的事情。但這的主要要點是他們的租賃、整個投資組合的長期承諾（包括與 Oi 無關的協議和一些未來的業務承諾）的一些加速折扣。

And our next question comes from the line of David Barden with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 David Barden。

This is Alex on for Dave. First off, I just want to send our congratulations to you both Jeff and Brendan. Maybe just first on the international new leasing just flat year-over-year. Does the expected cadence for that? Should that -- should we see that kind of ramp up through the year and exiting 2023? And then I know you just kind of touched on some of the carrier dynamics in Brazil. Could you maybe just touch on the spectrum auction as well as the recent presidential election last year?

這是戴夫的亞歷克斯。首先，我只想向 Jeff 和 Brendan 表示祝賀。也許首先是國際新租賃同比持平。預期的節奏嗎？那——我們是否應該在今年看到這種增長並在 2023 年結束？然後我知道你剛剛談到了巴西的一些承運人動態。您能否談談頻譜拍賣以及去年最近的總統選舉？

Yes. The international leasing revenue cadence should be fairly balanced throughout the year, unlike in the U.S. When we talked about a decline, that's really U.S.-related. Internationally, we'd expect it to be pretty steady throughout the year.

是的。國際租賃收入的節奏全年應該相當平衡，這與美國不同。當我們談到下降時，這實際上與美國有關。在國際上，我們預計它全年都會相當穩定。

And then on the other -- I'm sorry, the other carriers in the 5G auctions. Yes. I mean we're -- those auctions have put spectrum into the hands of these carriers. With the consolidation now of Oi, it's going to -- we believe it's going to actually be positive long term. Once they kind of get beyond these synergies, there's some work to be done here in this first year or 2 post merger. But I think as they get beyond that in order to compete as we believe they will now much more on network quality and 5G services. We expect that to be a big driver of leasing growth going forward. And just as it happens here in the U.S. and in other markets, the need to put that spectrum to work is the only way to get that investment to pay off. So we believe there's a lot of opportunity longer term now in Brazil as a result.

然後在另一方面——對不起，5G 拍賣中的其他運營商。是的。我的意思是我們 - 那些拍賣已將頻譜交到這些運營商手中。隨著 Oi 的整合，我們相信它會長期保持積極。一旦他們超越了這些協同作用，在合併後的第一年或第二年就需要做一些工作。但我認為，隨著他們超越這一點，為了競爭，我們相信他們現在將更多地關注網絡質量和 5G 服務。我們預計這將成為未來租賃增長的重要推動力。就像在美國和其他市場發生的那樣，讓該頻譜發揮作用的必要性是讓投資獲得回報的唯一途徑。因此，我們認為從長遠來看，巴西現在有很多機會。

And in terms of the political landscape, Lula obviously took the presidency, but the Bolsonaro group took the rest of Congress. So you have what you have similar to the United States, which is a split Congress. And when that typically happens, it's the same that occurs here, which is it's very hard to get anything done there materially. And that ultimately, I think, endures to the benefit of existing businesses. So we don't -- in the current landscape, where you have that kind of a split representation, we don't anticipate anything material coming out.

就政治格局而言，盧拉顯然當選總統，但博爾索納羅集團佔據了國會的其餘席位。所以你擁有與美國相似的東西，即分裂的國會。當這種情況通常發生時，與這裡發生的情況相同，那就是很難在那裡做任何實質性的事情。我認為，這最終會持續到現有企業的利益。所以我們不——在當前的情況下，你有那種分裂的代表，我們預計不會出現任何材料。

Our next question comes from the line of Brendan Lynch with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brendan Lynch 與 Barclays 的對話。

Great. And congrats to Jeff and Brendan on the new developments. There was a lot of questions on M&A. Maybe you could discuss potential new markets and give us an update on the Philippines and Tanzania. And then secondly, Brendan, if I heard you correctly, there weren't any collections issues related to Oi, but accounts receivable did tick up about $67 million quarter-over-quarter. Maybe you could provide some color what's behind that.

偉大的。並祝賀 Jeff 和 Brendan 的新進展。關於併購有很多問題。也許你可以討論潛在的新市場，並向我們介紹菲律賓和坦桑尼亞的最新情況。其次，布倫丹，如果我沒聽錯的話，沒有任何與 Oi 相關的收款問題，但應收賬款確實比上一季度增加了約 6700 萬美元。也許你可以提供一些顏色背後的東西。

Yes. On the last one, the tick-up is really actually just a timing issue in terms of collections because of the year-end. It's as simple as where the holidays fall and where payments were made, plus there was some services-related AR that we expect will actually come down over time.

是的。在最後一個問題上，由於年底的緣故，上調實際上只是收款方面的一個時間問題。就像假期在哪里和在哪裡付款一樣簡單，再加上我們預計一些與服務相關的 AR 實際上會隨著時間的推移而下降。

Yes. In terms of M&A, I mean we continue to take an opportunistic approach to new markets. We will go into a new market based on our demographic and operational analysis as well as country stability, risk, taxation, currency. So with certainly some exceptions that we would never look to go into under current circumstances, any country that we're not in today is a potential opportunity. And Tanzania is doing very well. Tanzania is ahead of our internal projections and the modeling that we did at the time of the acquisition. It is a dynamic country that is growing, and we're very optimistic about the future in Tanzania.

是的。在併購方面，我的意思是我們繼續對新市場採取機會主義的方法。我們將根據我們的人口和運營分析以及國家穩定性、風險、稅收和貨幣進入一個新市場。因此，除了一些我們在當前情況下永遠不會考慮的例外情況，我們今天不在的任何國家都是一個潛在的機會。坦桑尼亞做得很好。坦桑尼亞領先於我們的內部預測和我們在收購時所做的建模。這是一個充滿活力的國家，正在成長，我們對坦桑尼亞的未來非常樂觀。

Next question comes from the line of Batya Levi with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Batya Levi。

Congrats to both. A couple of questions. First, on the domestic churn. You've been pushing it out throughout the last year or so. Is it truly just timing? Or do you think that some of that decommissioning activity that the carrier anticipated is actually not going to pan out? Or is it a mixture of both? And to the extent that you see activity from carriers where they support fixed wireless service, have you started to see some incremental amendment activity in that region? Or is it too early to tell?

祝賀雙方。幾個問題。首先，關於國內客戶流失。在過去一年左右的時間裡，你一直在推動它。真的只是時機嗎？還是您認為承運人預期的某些退役活動實際上不會成功？還是兩者兼而有之？就您看到支持固定無線服務的運營商的活動而言，您是否開始看到該地區的一些增量修正活動？還是現在說還為時過早？

On the domestic churn, the timing, which is all Sprint/T-Mobile merger-related is truly just timing. We expect that the total amount that we'll incur will be the same as what we've kind of guided to in the past. We just -- we just think it takes a little bit longer to get some of that done, but we don't expect any changes.

在國內客戶流失方面，與 Sprint/T-Mobile 合併相關的時機確實恰到好處。我們預計我們將承擔的總金額將與我們過去所指導的金額相同。我們只是 - 我們只是認為完成其中一些需要更長的時間，但我們預計不會有任何變化。

Yes. And in terms of the fixed wireless, we believe what our customers say that it basically is a product that results from excess capacity that currently exists in the network after at least where they have deployed a lot of mid-band spectrum. That really just works off the existing macros back yet, so we haven't seen anything that we would clearly and particularly identify as incremental. Although there have been some reports where microwave, millimeter wave spectrum would be broadcast off the macro sites to help with the fixed wireless initiative. We hope that comes to pass, obviously, but we haven't seen that happen just yet.

是的。在固定無線方面，我們相信我們的客戶所說的，它基本上是一種產品，是由於至少在他們部署了大量中頻帶頻譜之後，目前網絡中存在的容量過剩。這實際上只是對現有的宏起作用，所以我們還沒有看到任何我們可以明確和特別確定為增量的東西。儘管有一些報導稱，微波、毫米波頻譜將在宏站點之外廣播，以幫助實施固定無線計劃。顯然，我們希望這會發生，但我們還沒有看到這種情況發生。

And our next question comes from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Brandon Nispel。

Brendan, a question for you. The guidance for leasing, I'm afraid I'm going to ask this just a different way than everybody else has it. But the guidance for leasing for $72 million, you exited at about $21 million this quarter on my numbers. So it seems to imply an exit rate in '23 and $15 million to $16 million. I guess is that right?

布倫丹，問你一個問題。租賃指南，恐怕我會以與其他人不同的方式提出這個問題。但是根據我的數據，根據 7200 萬美元的租賃指導，你本季度的退出價格約為 2100 萬美元。所以這似乎意味著 23 年的退出率和 1500 萬至 1600 萬美元。我想是這樣嗎？

And then as we think about building our forecast for '24 if you're exiting around that level, historically, you guys have grown new leasing by the $40 million to $50 million cap. What would be the swing factors in terms of keeping that $15 million to $16 million exit rate holding steady in '24 versus maybe trending lower?

然後當我們考慮建立我們對 24 年的預測時，如果你在那個水平附近退出，從歷史上看，你們已經增加了 4000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元的新租賃上限。在 24 年保持 1500 萬至 1600 萬美元的退出率穩定而不是可能趨於下降的情況下，搖擺因素是什麼？

Yes, that's in the right ballpark, Brandon, in terms of where we would think that we'll exit that sort of what's assumed in our $72 million number. That is in that range. What would swing it in terms of what happens after that is really dependent on what happens in terms of new bookings signed up during the second half of this year, the pace of that. If it's ahead of our pace, it's not going to have much impact on our assumed pace, it's not going to have much impact on 2023, but obviously, it will drive what happens in 2024. So it's a little early to be able to talk about that, obviously, but the biggest impact is going to be based on what's happening in terms of new business we're signing up the second half of this year.

是的，布蘭登，就我們認為我們將退出我們 7200 萬美元數字中假設的那種情況而言，這是在正確的範圍內。那是在那個範圍內。在那之後發生的事情會發生什麼變化，實際上取決於今年下半年簽署的新預訂方面發生的情況，以及速度。如果它超前於我們的步伐，它不會對我們假設的步伐產生太大影響，不會對 2023 年產生太大影響，但顯然，它將推動 2024 年發生的事情。所以現在談論還為時過早顯然，關於這一點，但最大的影響將基於我們今年下半年簽署的新業務方面的情況。

I guess just a follow-up on that. Two of your larger customers have sort of guided us to lower capital spending in '23 and '24. So I'm curious what would drive the leasing number to ever be better than $72 million. Do we need to see another spectrum auction? Is there going to be another sort of massive ground of densification of the existing spectrum bands? Is it a new customer? It's going to be a new 5G use case? Just trying to get a sense of sort of your thoughts around 5G more holistically in that regard.

我想只是對此的後續行動。您的兩個大客戶在某種程度上引導我們降低了 23 年和 24 年的資本支出。所以我很好奇什麼會推動租賃數量超過 7200 萬美元。我們是否需要再進行一次頻譜拍賣？是否會存在另一種現有頻譜帶緻密化的大規模基礎？是新客戶嗎？這將是一個新的 5G 用例？只是想在這方面更全面地了解您對 5G 的看法。

Yes. I think that it's really a function of how many of our customers are hitting on all cylinders at the same time. It's usually just concentration more than it is anything else. Our biggest lease-up periods throughout our history have come when all of our customers have been busy at the same time. Usually, that's the biggest driver. If you have them do it over time, it just basically spreads it out more, but it doesn't necessarily change the total. So that's probably the biggest answer.

是的。我認為這實際上取決於我們有多少客戶同時在所有氣缸上工作。通常只是注意力比其他任何東西都重要。我們歷史上最大的租賃期是在我們所有的客戶同時忙碌的時候到來的。通常，這是最大的驅動因素。如果你讓他們隨著時間的推移這樣做，它基本上只會分散更多，但不一定會改變總數。所以這可能是最大的答案。

I mean, obviously, there are other things that are out there that are more specific. I mean DISH has certain obligations in 2025. That, of course, could be a driver to activity levels with them. T-Mobile's got C-band spectrum that's clearing at the end of this year as well as 3.45. They haven't really deployed any of that. So there's a variety of specific things that you could point to by carrier that could be drivers of accelerated activity at a given point in time, but that's really to be seen in terms of the timing. Ultimately, though, we expect all of those things to drive incremental business to our site. It's just a question of when that happens.

我的意思是，顯然，還有其他更具體的東西。我的意思是 DISH 在 2025 年有一定的義務。當然，這可能會推動他們的活動水平。 T-Mobile 的 C 波段頻譜和 3.45 將於今年年底清理。他們還沒有真正部署任何這些。因此，運營商可以指出各種具體的事情，這些事情可能是給定時間點加速活動的驅動因素，但這真的要從時間的角度來看。不過，最終，我們希望所有這些都能為我們的網站帶來更多業務。這只是何時發生的問題。

Yes. And I would just add, and this comment goes throughout all the comments. We've been careful with our guidance and with our commentary not to get ahead of our customers. I mean ultimately, the answer to your question is how much money they decide that they're going to -- we're not going to change the amount of money they're going to spend. They're going to spend what they decide they need to spend under the current competitive capital and other dynamics.

是的。我只想補充一點，這條評論貫穿所有評論。我們一直對我們的指導和評論保持謹慎，不要超越我們的客戶。我的意思是，最終，你的問題的答案是他們決定要花多少錢——我們不會改變他們要花的錢。在當前的競爭資本和其他動態下，他們將花費他們決定需要花費的錢。

Our last question comes from the line of David Guarino with Green Street.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Green Street 的 David Guarino。

Two questions on your guidance. I'll ask on both upfront. The first one on the escalation guidance for your international markets. I was wondering if you could just comment on why given the higher CPI last year, why we're seeing flat growth in that number year-over-year. And then on your discretionary CapEx guidance, I'm assuming there's no acquisitions included in there, but it looks like it's going to be up pretty significantly versus last year. Is that some data center investments? Or is there any other type of CapEx that's driving that higher in '23?

關於您的指導的兩個問題。我會提前詢問這兩個問題。第一個關於您的國際市場升級指南。我想知道你是否可以評論為什麼去年 CPI 較高，為什麼我們看到這個數字同比增長持平。然後根據您的自由裁量資本支出指導，我假設其中不包括收購，但看起來與去年相比會大幅上升。那是一些數據中心投資嗎？或者是否有任何其他類型的資本支出在 23 年推動更高？

Yes. So on the international escalations, the dollar amount is flat. The CPI was certainly elevated during 2022. We are projecting it to be lower in Brazil, which is our -- by far, our largest international market in 2023. But it's -- while it's lower next year, the timing of when those escalations take place has an impact. So some of the higher escalations of '22, some of that benefit carries over into 2023, and our assumed lower rate obviously then offset some of that benefit. Plus, we have a little bit bigger base of business, of course, with the GTS acquisition in particular. So when you put it all together, we ended up with basically about the same dollar amount of growth impact, but we are assuming that the CPI rates come down year-over-year. So that's offsetting what you might otherwise see as an increase.

是的。因此，在國際局勢升級時，美元數量持平。 CPI 在 2022 年肯定會升高。我們預計巴西的 CPI 會更低，這是我們 - 迄今為止，我們 2023 年最大的國際市場。但是它 - 雖然明年會降低，但這些升級的時機地方有影響。因此，22 年的一些更高的升級，其中一些好處會延續到 2023 年，而我們假設的較低利率顯然會抵消部分好處。另外，我們有更大的業務基礎，當然，特別是對 GTS 的收購。所以當你把它們放在一起時，我們最終得到的增長影響基本上是相同的美元數額，但我們假設 CPI 利率同比下降。因此，這抵消了您可能會看到的增長。

And on the discretionary CapEx, there is a small amount of contracted M&A in there, which we actually disclosed how much is under contract in our press release. But the balance of that is made up of assumptions we've made around new builds, around data center upgrades, around some DAS networks that we're investing in, basically everything else. The only thing that we don't included in there is an assumption around M&A because it's obviously lumpier and hard to identify what that's going to be sitting here today. But the rest of our discretionary investment plans, the guidance kind of reflects those assumptions.

在可自由支配的資本支出中，有少量合同併購，我們實際上在新聞稿中披露了合同中有多少。但其平衡是由我們圍繞新構建、圍繞數據中心升級、圍繞我們正在投資的一些 DAS 網絡所做的假設組成的，基本上是其他一切。我們唯一沒有包括在其中的是關於併購的假設，因為它顯然更加笨拙，而且很難確定今天會坐在這裡的是什麼。但我們的其他可自由支配的投資計劃，指導類型反映了這些假設。

And we have no other questions in queue. I'll turn the conference back over to you.

我們沒有其他問題在排隊。我會把會議轉回給你。

Thank you, Eric. And thank you, everyone, for joining us. We look forward to advising you on our progress in 2023 as we move through the year.

謝謝你，埃里克。感謝大家加入我們。我們期待著在 2023 年為您提供有關我們在這一年中取得的進展的建議。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T conferencing service. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。