StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to StandardAero's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    下午好,歡迎參加 StandardAero 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Rama Bondada, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please proceed.

    現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁拉瑪邦達達。請繼續。

  • R. Rama Bondada - Vice President of Investor Relations

    R. Rama Bondada - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to StandardAero's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. I'm joined today by Russell Ford, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Dan Satterfield, our Chief Financial Officer; and Alex Trapp, our Chief Strategy Officer.

    謝謝大家,大家下午好。歡迎參加 StandardAero 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:我們的董事長兼執行長 Russell Ford;我們的財務長 Dan Satterfield;以及我們的首席策略長 Alex Trapp。

  • Alongside today's call, you can find our earnings release as well as the accompanying presentation on our website at ir.standardaero.com. An audio replay of this call will also be made available, which you can access on our website or by phone. The phone number for the audio replay is included in the press release announcing this call.

    除了今天的電話會議,您還可以在我們的網站 ir.standardaero.com 上找到我們的盈利報告以及相關的簡報。本次電話會議的錄音回放也將提供,您可以透過我們的網站或電話收聽。本次通話的新聞稿中包含了音訊回放的電話號碼。

  • Before we begin, as always, I would like to remind everyone that statements made during this call include forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. Such risks and uncertainties include the factors set forth in the earnings release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

    在開始之前,我想像往常一樣提醒大家,本次電話會議中發表的聲明包括聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。此類風險和不確定性包括獲利公告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所列的因素,包括截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告的「風險因素」部分中所列的因素。除法律要求外,我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio and organic revenue growth. A definition and reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix to the earnings slide presentation on our website. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for GAAP measures.

    此外,在今天的電話會議中,我們將討論一些非GAAP財務指標,例如調整後的EBITDA、調整後的EBITDA利潤率、自由現金流、淨債務與調整後的EBITDA槓桿率以及有機收入成長。這些指標的定義以及與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整,可以在我們的獲利報告和我們網站上的獲利幻燈片簡報的附錄中找到。非公認會計準則財務指標應作為公認會計準則指標的補充訊息,而不是替代指標。

  • With that out of the way, I'd like to now turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Russell Ford. Russ, over to you.

    既然如此,我現在想把電話交給我們的董事長兼執行長羅素福特。Russ,該你了。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Rama, and thanks to everyone for joining our earnings call today. Before we begin, I'd like to take a moment to wish an early Happy Veterans Day to all of those who have served and those currently serving in the armed forces. I'm proud to say that at StandardAero, nearly 20% of our domestic workforce are veterans, and we are immensely grateful for their sacrifices they and their families have made through their service.

    謝謝 Rama,也感謝今天所有參加我們財報電話會議的各位。在正式開始之前,我想藉此機會提前祝所有曾經服役和正在服役的軍人退伍軍人節快樂。我很自豪地說,在 StandardAero,我們近 20% 的國內員工是退伍軍人,我們非常感謝他們及其家人在服役期間所做的犧牲。

  • Now let's turn to our results beginning on slide 3. The third quarter was another strong performance by StandardAero. We delivered revenue of $1.5 billion, growing 20% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA of $196 million, up 16% year-over-year growth. This marks another quarter of double-digit top line and earnings growth driven by demand strength across our end markets and continued operational discipline throughout our business. Within a complex operating environment, our diversified business model across end markets, OEMs and more than 40 platforms we serve continues to provide us with growth opportunities and resilience, enabling us to perform well through industry cycles.

    現在讓我們從第 3 張投影片開始來看結果。StandardAero 第三季表現依然強勁。我們實現了 15 億美元的收入,年增 20%;調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.96 億美元,年增 16%。這標誌著公司營收和獲利連續第二季實現兩位數成長,這得益於終端市場強勁的需求以及公司在整個業務中持續的營運紀律。在複雜的經營環境中,我們面向終端市場、OEM廠商以及我們服務的40多個平台的多元化業務模式,不斷為我們提供成長機會和韌性,使我們能夠在產業週期中保持良好的表現。

  • Now turning to our end market performance in the quarter. Our commercial aerospace revenue grew 18% year-over-year led by a near doubling of LEAP revenues from last quarter and strong contributions from the CF34, CFM56 and Turboprop engine platforms. Our backlog of MRO work remains strong and the MRO supply demand environment remains tight globally. We expect this favorable dynamic to continue for the foreseeable future. Business aviation revenue was up 28% year-over-year driven by growth across mid- and super mid-sized aircraft. We saw strong growth in our HTF7000 program, which should continue, supported by the successful expansion of our Augusta facility. Our military and helicopter revenue grew 21% year-over-year, fueled by AE1107 engine volumes after the V-22 grounding last year ongoing strength of our C-130 transport aircraft programs and the J85 engine, which powers the T-38 trainer as well as the contribution from our Aero Turbine acquisition.

    現在來看我們本季的終端市場表現。我們的商用航空航太營收年增 18%,這主要得益於 LEAP 收入較上季幾乎翻了一番,以及 CF34、CFM56 和渦輪螺旋槳發動機平台的強勁貢獻。我們的MRO(維修、維修和大修)工作積壓依然充足,全球MRO供需環境依然緊張。我們預計這種有利的局面在可預見的未來將持續下去。受中型和超中型飛機成長的推動,公務航空收入年增 28%。我們的 HTF7000 專案取得了強勁成長,隨著奧古斯塔工廠的成功擴建,這一成長勢頭應該會繼續下去。我們的軍用和直升機收入年增 21%,這得益於去年 V-22 停飛後 AE1107 發動機的銷量增長、C-130 運輸機項目的持續強勁勢頭、為 T-38 教練機提供動力的 J85 發動機,以及我們收購 Aero Turbine 的貢獻。

  • From an earnings perspective, we continue to generate strong high-quality growth. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16% year-over-year, driven by volume growth, pricing and mix particularly within component repair services where we delivered another record margin quarter. Even as we invest heavily in ramping our newest programs, we've continued to demonstrate double-digit earnings growth and margin resiliency. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.1%, inclusive of some lower-margin work scopes and the expected short-term impact of the ramps of our LEAP program and the new CFM56 DFW facility, both of which are expanding at a rapid pace while we come down the learning curve as planned. This result underscores the strength of our overall portfolio design. We anticipate these ramping programs will turn profitable in early 2026 and continue to accrete from there.

    從獲利角度來看,我們持續實現強勁的高品質成長。經調整的 EBITDA 年成長 16%,主要得益於銷售成長、價格和產品組合的最佳化,尤其是在零件維修服務領域,我們又實現了創紀錄的季度利潤率。即使我們投入巨資擴大最新專案的規模,我們仍然保持了兩位數的獲利成長和利潤率韌性。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 13.1%,其中包括一些利潤率較低的工作範圍,以及 LEAP 項目和新的 CFM56 DFW 工廠的啟動預計帶來的短期影響,這兩個項目都在快速擴張,而我們也在按計劃逐步適應學習曲線。這項結果凸顯了我們整體投資組合設計的優勢。我們預計這些產能提升計畫將於 2026 年初開始獲利,並從那時起持續成長。

  • Starting on the right side of Page 4. I'll give some updates on the status of our strategic priorities, which we expect to drive long-term compounding value for our shareholders. We continue to be pleased with the progress of our LEAP industrialization and the outlook for this program. LEAP revenues continue to scale rapidly and are a key driver of our commercial growth. Through the end of the third quarter, we've inducted nearly 50 LEAP engines and expect to complete more than 60 LEAP engine inductions this year. LEAP sales in the third quarter nearly doubled sequentially from Q2. Importantly, the long-term demand outlook for LEAP is getting even more robust with multiple wins this quarter and a large number of sizable opportunities in the pipeline. With our recent wins, our planned 2026 slots are rapidly filling up, and we continue to gain even more confidence that our LEAP revenues alone will reach $1 billion annually in the next few years.

    從第 4 頁右側開始。我將介紹我們策略重點的最新進展,我們預計這些策略重點將為我們的股東帶來長期的複合價值。我們對 LEAP 產業化進程的進展以及該專案的未來前景感到滿意。LEAP 的營收持續快速成長,是我們商業成長的關鍵驅動力。截至第三季末,我們已經完成了近 50 台 LEAP 引擎的安裝,預計今年將完成 60 多台 LEAP 引擎的安裝。LEAP 第三季的銷售量比第二季幾乎比第二季翻了一番。重要的是,LEAP 的長期需求前景更加強勁,本季已斬獲多個項目,還有大量可觀的機會正在醞釀中。憑藉我們最近的成功,我們計劃在 2026 年獲得的席位正在迅速被填滿,我們越來越有信心,僅 LEAP 項目的收入就將在未來幾年內達到每年 10 億美元。

  • Moving to our other growth platform investments. The CFM56 expansion at our DFW facility is also progressing well with strong bookings momentum, including a significant 3-year award from a major North American carrier during the quarter. Last quarter, we talked about the expansion of our business aviation facility in Augusta, Georgia. That expansion is now operational with the added capacity helping drive significant growth on our HTF7000 program, where we are seeing strong demand for our mid- and super mid-sized business jets and are positioned as the worldwide exclusive independent heavy overhaul provider on this engine platform.

    接下來談談我們其他的成長平台投資。我們位於達拉斯沃斯堡機場的 CFM56 擴建項目也進展順利,預訂勢頭強勁,包括本季度與一家北美主要航空公司簽訂的為期 3 年的重要合約。上個季度,我們討論了位於喬治亞州奧古斯塔的公務航空設施的擴建事宜。該擴建項目現已投入運營,新增產能有助於推動我們的 HTF7000 項目實現顯著增長,我們看到市場對我們的中型和超中型公務機需求強勁,並且我們已成為該發動機平台上全球唯一的獨立大修供應商。

  • We are also pleased to announce today the planned expansion of our MRO facility in Winnipeg, Canada. This facility is home to our CF34 program, where we expanded our license relationship with GE last year. We continue to see outsized demand and share gains on this platform and are adding approximately 70,000 square feet to the facility to capture that growth. This expansion will increase our Winnipeg footprint for both the CF34 and CFM56 programs by more than 40% as well as significantly increase our CRS insourcing opportunities. We broke ground on the expansion in September and expect to complete it in the second half of 2026. The investment is supported by contributions from the government of Manitoba with whom we've been working closely in planning this project, resulting in a total net investment for StandardAero in the high single-digit millions. We view this as an attractive and high-return investment opportunity given the long-term contracts we already have in place to fill a large portion of this capacity.

    今天,我們也很高興地宣布,我們計劃擴建位於加拿大溫尼伯的MRO設施。該設施是我們 CF34 計畫的所在地,去年我們擴大了與 GE 的授權合作關係。我們持續看到該平台的巨大需求和市場份額增長,因此正在為該設施增加約 70,000 平方英尺的面積,以滿足這一增長需求。此次擴張將使我們在溫尼伯的 CF34 和 CFM56 專案規模擴大 40% 以上,並大幅增加我們的 CRS 內部採購機會。我們於 9 月破土動工進行擴建,預計 2026 年下半年完工。這項投資得到了曼尼托巴省政府的資助,我們在規劃這個項目時與該省政府密切合作,最終使 StandardAero 的總淨投資額達到數百萬美元。鑑於我們已經簽訂了長期合約來填補大部分產能空缺,我們認為這是一個有吸引力且高回報的投資機會。

  • Our component repair business continues to execute, delivering record margins this quarter and driving 32% adjusted EBITDA growth year-over-year. The team is performing well on synergy capture from the ATI acquisition, and we've expanded our portfolio of OEM-authorized LEAP repairs to more than 450.

    我們的零件維修業務持續發展,本季實現了創紀錄的利潤率,並推動調整後 EBITDA 年成長 32%。團隊在實現 ATI 收購帶來的綜效方面表現出色,我們已將 OEM 授權的 LEAP 維修組合擴展到 450 多個。

  • Additionally, we're now the first non-OEM provider of source-controlled LEAP-1A and 1B fan blade repairs, including structural edge and coating repairs and have stood up our dedicated LEAP fan blade repair cell at our CRS facility in Cincinnati.

    此外,我們現在是第一個提供源頭可控的 LEAP-1A 和 1B 風扇葉片維修服務的非 OEM 供應商,包括結構邊緣和塗層維修,並且我們在辛辛那提的 CRS 工廠建立了專門的 LEAP 風扇葉片維修單元。

  • Furthermore, our CRS segment was awarded new OEM authorizations on 2 critical source substantiated fan blade repairs on the CF34-8 engine. We are continuing to expand our portfolio of over 20,000 licensed component repairs, which we expect to drive third-party sales growth and strengthen the synergies between our CRS and Engine Services business. As a result of our continuing strong performance and execution on our strategic priorities, we are raising our full year 2025 guidance across all key metrics: revenue, earnings and free cash flow, reflecting our confidence in the fourth quarter and continued strength across both segments. Dan will detail this guidance shortly.

    此外,我們的 CRS 部門獲得了 CF34-8 引擎上 2 個關鍵來源風扇葉片維修的新 OEM 授權。我們正在不斷擴大我們超過 20,000 項授權零件維修業務組合,我們預計這將推動第三方銷售成長,並加強我們的 CRS 和引擎服務業務之間的協同效應。由於我們在策略重點方面持續取得強勁業績和有效執行,我們提高了 2025 年全年所有關鍵指標的預期:收入、盈利和自由現金流,這反映了我們對第四季度的信心以及兩個業務板塊的持續強勁表現。丹稍後會詳細介紹這方面的指導意見。

  • In addition, our balance sheet remains a source of strategic flexibility and gives us ample liquidity for both organic investments and accretive M&A. As we move forward, our priorities are clear: first, continue to ramp our growth platforms efficiently; second, drive productivity and cash conversion across the enterprise; third, continue expanding our CRS repair capabilities; and finally, continue investing organically and through acquisition in programs and capabilities that capitalize on our long-term growth opportunities.

    此外,我們的資產負債表仍然是策略靈活性的來源,並為我們的有機投資和增值併購提供了充足的流動性。展望未來,我們的優先事項很明確:首先,繼續有效率地擴大我們的成長平台;其次,提高整個企業的生產力和現金轉換率;第三,繼續擴大我們的CRS維修能力;最後,繼續透過內部成長和收購投資於能夠把握我們長期成長機會的專案和能力。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Dan to discuss our financial performance and outlook with additional detail. Dan?

    接下來,我將把電話交給丹,讓他更詳細地討論我們的財務表現和前景。擔?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Russ. I will begin on slide 5 with some highlights from our third quarter results. For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, we generated revenue of $1.5 billion, up 20.4% year-over-year, including 19% organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $196 million for the third quarter, representing 16.1% growth with adjusted EBITDA margins of 13.1% compared to 13.5% year-over-year, driven by some lower-margin work scope mix, and the ramp of LEAP and CFM56 DFW programs as those come down the learning curve, partially offset by record CRS margins.

    謝謝你,Russ。我將從第 5 張投影片開始,介紹我們第三季業績的一些亮點。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的第三季度,我們創造了 15 億美元的收入,年增 20.4%,其中有機成長 19%。第三季調整後 EBITDA 增至 1.96 億美元,年增 16.1%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 13.1%,去年同期為 13.5%。這主要得益於部分利潤率較低的工作範圍組合,以及 LEAP 和 CFM56 DFW 項目在學習曲線趨於平緩後逐步推進,但部分被創紀錄的 CRS 利潤率所抵消。

  • The prior period, Q3 2024, included the onetime impact of our liability extinguishment that added $9.3 million to revenue and adjusted EBITDA and boosted margins by 60 basis points. Net income was $68 million, an increase of $52 million versus the prior year period, reflecting higher operating income, reduced interest expense and lower nonrecurring costs. Free cash flow was a $4 million use this quarter, a meaningful sequential improvement but still reflective of a challenging supply chain across various platforms that continues to drive record levels of contract assets in our shops due to specific constrained parts.

    上一期間(2024 年第三季)包括我們債務清償的一次性影響,使收入和調整後 EBITDA 增加了 930 萬美元,利潤率提高了 60 個基點。淨收入為 6,800 萬美元,比上年同期增加 5,200 萬美元,這反映了營業收入增加、利息支出減少和非經常性成本降低。本季自由現金流為 400 萬美元,季比顯著改善,但仍反映出各個平台的供應鏈面臨挑戰,由於某些零件供應受限,導致我們車間的合約資產持續達到創紀錄水平。

  • Importantly, this is mainly a timing issue, and we expect a surge in shipping of completed engines in the fourth quarter, which will unwind a substantial portion of the increase in working capital experienced in the first 9 months of 2025. As such, we are confident in raising our free cash flow guidance for 2025. I'll dive a little deeper into cash flow shortly.

    重要的是,這主要是一個時間問題,我們預計第四季度成品引擎的出貨量將大幅增加,這將抵消 2025 年前 9 個月營運資金增加的大部分。因此,我們有信心提高對 2025 年自由現金流的預期。稍後我會更深入地探討現金流問題。

  • Now moving into our two segments, starting with Engine Services on slide 6. Engine Services revenue increased 21% to $1.32 billion in Q3, driven by the LEAP CFM56, CF34 and Turboprop platforms and the HTF7000 business aviation platform. Engine Services adjusted EBITDA increased 12% year-over-year, with margins of 12.5%, consistent with expectations given some lower-margin work scope mix in the quarter and a substantial growth on the LEAP and CFM56 DFW platforms. Keep in mind that in the quarter last year, Q3 2024, we had a liability extinguishment that added $9.3 million to revenue and EBITDA and boosted margins by 70 basis points. Without that onetime gain, Q3 2024 margins would have been 12.8%. So excluding the currently dilutive effect of our growth platforms, we would have had significant year-over-year margin improvement this quarter. As Russ mentioned, we continue to expect both of these programs to become margin positive in early 2026 as we move down the learning curve.

    現在進入我們的兩個部分,首先是幻燈片 6 中的引擎服務。第三季發動機服務收入成長 21% 至 13.2 億美元,主要得益於 LEAP CFM56、CF34 和渦輪螺旋槳平台以及 HTF7000 公務航空平台。引擎服務調整後的 EBITDA 年成長 12%,利潤率為 12.5%,考慮到本季度部分低利潤率的工作範圍組合以及 LEAP 和 CFM56 DFW 平台的顯著增長,這一結果符合預期。請記住,在去年同期(2024 年第三季),我們進行了一項負債清償,為收入和 EBITDA 增加了 930 萬美元,並將利潤率提高了 70 個基點。如果沒有那筆一次性收益,2024 年第三季的利潤率將為 12.8%。因此,如果不考慮我們成長平台目前帶來的稀釋效應,本季我們的利潤率將實現顯著的同比改善。正如 Russ 所提到的,隨著我們逐步適應學習曲線,我們仍然預計這兩個項目將在 2026 年初實現盈利。

  • On to slide 7, CRS. Component Repair Services revenue increased 14% to $154 million in Q3. Notable drivers included select military platforms, continued robust demand in our land and marine business for aeroderivative engines, which is benefiting from growth in applications like data centers and strong performance from our ATI acquisition. This was partly offset by the timing of some commercial volumes that moved to the right.

    接下來是第 7 張投影片,CRS。第三季零件維修服務營收成長 14%,達到 1.54 億美元。顯著的驅動因素包括部分軍用平台的需求、陸地和海洋業務對航空衍生引擎的持續強勁需求(受益於資料中心等應用領域的成長)以及我們收購 ATI 帶來的強勁業績。部分商業書籍的出版時間提前,抵銷了這種影響。

  • CRS segment adjusted EBITDA grew 32% year-over-year, reaching $54 million. Margins continued to see strong improvement and once again marked a record quarter. We did see some favorable mix in Q3 that we expect to normalize in the fourth quarter, which is reflected in our guidance and more on this shortly.

    CRS部門調整後EBITDA年增32%,達5,400萬美元。利潤率持續強勁成長,再次創下季度新高。我們在第三季度看到了一些有利的組合,預計第四季度將趨於正常化,這已反映在我們的業績指引中,稍後會有更多相關說明。

  • Now moving to slide 8. Free cash flow for the quarter was a $4 million use, continuing to reflect the impact of increased working capital, which was up $108 million in the quarter tied to key constrained part delays that persist. A significant amount of this working capital increase is purely timing related, driven by parts availability on a number of our platforms, which has been particularly challenging year-to-date. As a result, we had many engines largely completed and awaiting specific parts before shipment to the customer and invoicing and thus, cash collection. This situation is reflected in our contract assets balance sheet line item, which has increased $300 million over the last 12 months, with a vast majority tied to certain commercial programs.

    現在轉到第8張投影片。本季自由現金流為 400 萬美元,繼續反映出營運資本增加的影響,本季營運資本增加了 1.08 億美元,這與關鍵受限零件的持續延誤有關。這項營運資金增加很大一部分純粹是時間因素造成的,主要受我們多個平台零件供應情況的影響,而今年迄今為止,零件供應一直面臨著特別大的挑戰。因此,我們有很多引擎基本上完成,只待特定零件到貨,然後才能發貨給客戶、開立發票,從而收取貨款。這種情況反映在我們的合約資產負債表項目中,該項目在過去 12 個月中增加了 3 億美元,其中絕大部分與某些商業項目有關。

  • However, the good news is this is purely a matter of timing. The situation is improving, and we expect a significant unwind in Q4. As such, we expect cash flow in Q4 to be exceptionally strong, and we are raising our full year free cash flow outlook by $15 million at the midpoint from our prior guidance as we are now expecting free cash flow for the full year 2025 to be in the range of $170 million to $190 million. Along these lines, we also have some additional positive developments to share that will fundamentally improve the quality and sustainability of our margins and cash flow going forward.

    不過,好消息是,這純粹是時機問題。情況正在好轉,我們預計第四季將大幅回檔。因此,我們預計第四季度現金流將異常強勁,我們將全年自由現金流預期上調1500萬美元(以我們之前的預期中位數為準),因為我們現在預計2025年全年自由現金流將在1.7億美元至1.9億美元之間。基於這些方面,我們還有一些積極的進展要分享,這些進展將從根本上提高我們未來利潤率和現金流的品質和可持續性。

  • Over the past year, we have continued to execute on our goal of negotiating structural changes to several long-term customer contracts within our Engine Services segment. Historically, many of these contracts included a substantial amount of zero or low margin material pass-through revenue. Material that sits in inventory and contract assets consumes significant cash and obscures our true operating performance. We have now made meaningful progress renegotiating several contracts that achieve structural changes to reduce or eliminate this pass-through activity, and we expect to see a clear positive impact in 2026.

    過去一年,我們繼續推進我們的目標,即透過談判,對我們引擎服務部門的幾份長期客戶合約進行結構性調整。從歷史上看,這些合約中有很多都包含大量零利潤或低利潤的材料轉嫁收入。庫存和合約資產中的物料會消耗大量現金,並掩蓋我們真實的經營績效。我們目前在重新談判幾份合約方面取得了實質進展,這些合約實現了結構性變革,以減少或消除這種轉嫁活動,我們預計在 2026 年將看到明顯的正面影響。

  • As a result of these contract amendments, we now expect approximately $300 million to $400 million of material pass-through revenue to be eliminated next year. While it will appear to reduce our nominal top line growth rate at the outset, it will have minimal impact on EBITDA or earnings growth, resulting in higher reported margins that better reflect the true operating performance of these programs. Importantly, these changes will improve our working capital efficiency and free cash flow conversion over time as they take effect through 2026. We'll provide full quantitative 2026 guidance incorporating these impacts when we report fourth quarter results early next year.

    由於這些合約修改,我們現在預計明年將減少約 3 億至 4 億美元的實質轉嫁收入。雖然這似乎會在初期降低我們的名目營收成長率,但對 EBITDA 或獲利成長的影響微乎其微,從而帶來更高的報告利潤率,更好地反映這些項目的真實營運績效。重要的是,隨著這些變更在 2026 年逐步生效,它們將提高我們的營運資金效率和自由現金流轉換率。當我們將於明年初公佈第四季業績時,提供包含這些影響在內的 2026 年完整量化指引。

  • Turning to slide 9. Our leverage at the end of the quarter improved to 2.9x net debt to EBITDA and is down 2.4 turns from our leverage at the end of Q3 last year. We expect to continue to delever through organic earnings and cash flow growth with our long-term net leverage target unchanged at between 2 and 3x. At the current level, we have ample balance sheet capacity to conduct organic investments and accretive and strategic M&A.

    翻到第9張投影片。本季末,我們的槓桿率改善至淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.9 倍,比去年第三季末的槓桿率下降了 2.4 倍。我們預計將透過內生利潤和現金流成長繼續降低槓桿率,長期淨槓桿率目標維持在 2 至 3 倍之間。以目前的水平,我們擁有充足的資產負債表能力進行內生性投資以及增值和策略性併購。

  • Now to our guidance on slide 10. As Russ mentioned earlier, we are increasing our outlook ranges across all three of our main metrics from our August earnings call to reflect our continued operational outperformance. When we provided initial guidance for 2025 back in March, we expect a 12% year-over-year revenue growth and 13% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint. Our new guidance calls for 14.5% revenue growth and 16.5% adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint. Expressed differently, we have increased our full year guidance relative to our initial outlook by 350 basis points for adjusted EBITDA growth. This has come about despite the challenging 2025 supply chain environment we have referenced several times on this and prior calls.

    現在就來看看第 10 張投影片的指導說明。正如 Russ 先前所提到的,為了反映我們持續優異的營運業績,我們在 8 月的財報電話會議上提高了所有三個主要指標的預期範圍。早在 3 月份,我們給予 2025 年的初步指引時,我們預期營收年增 12%,調整後 EBITDA 年成長 13%(取中間值)。我們新的業績預期中位數分別為:營收成長 14.5%,調整後 EBITDA 成長 16.5%。換句話說,我們已將全年調整後 EBITDA 成長預期較最初預期提高了 350 個基點。儘管我們在本次及之前的電話會議中多次提到2025年供應鏈環境充滿挑戰,但這一目標仍然實現了。

  • We now expect 2025 Engine Services revenue of $5.27 billion to $5.31 billion, which at the midpoint implies a 14% full year growth rate. For our Component Repair Services segment, we now expect 2025 revenue of $700 million to $720 million, which at the midpoint translates to a 20% growth rate.

    我們現在預計 2025 年發動機服務收入為 52.7 億美元至 53.1 億美元,其中值意味著全年增長率為 14%。對於我們的零件維修服務部門,我們現在預計 2025 年的營收將達到 7 億至 7.2 億美元,以中間值計算,成長率為 20%。

  • On EBITDA, we have adjusted our 2025 Engine Services segment adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 13.2% and are raising our 2025 component repair segment adjusted EBITDA margin from about 28.3% to 29%. This drives an increase to our total company 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $5.97 billion to $6.03 billion. Our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance increases to a range of $795 million to $815 million. As I mentioned before, we are also raising our free cash flow guidance for the year to $170 million to $190 million as we are confident in our Q4 cash generation as earnings continue to grow and working capital unwinds.

    關於 EBITDA,我們將 2025 年引擎服務部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預期調整為 13.2%,並將 2025 年零件維修部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率從約 28.3% 上調至 29%。這將使我們公司 2025 年的總收入預期提高至 59.7 億美元至 60.3 億美元之間。我們預計 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 為 7.95 億美元至 8.15 億美元。正如我之前提到的,由於我們對第四季度的現金流充滿信心,盈利持續增長,營運資本逐步釋放,因此我們將全年自由現金流預期上調至 1.7 億美元至 1.9 億美元。

  • With that, I'll now turn it back over to Russ to wrap things up.

    接下來,我將把發言權交還給 Russ,讓他來總結一下。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Dan. This call marks an important milestone for us as we recently completed our first full year as a publicly traded company last month. We continue to be pleased with the performance of the business, which is well ahead of the targets we set in advance of the IPO. And we're optimistic about the prospects for StandardAero through this year and into the future with a positive market backdrop and the continued relentless focus on execution that's been a hallmark of our business since it was founded 114 years ago.

    謝謝你,丹。這通電話對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑,因為我們上個月剛完成了作為上市公司的第一個完整年度。我們對公司目前的業績表現感到滿意,遠遠超出了我們在IPO之前設定的目標。鑑於積極的市場環境以及自 114 年前公司成立以來一直秉持的對執行力的不懈追求,我們對 StandardAero 今年及未來的發展前景持樂觀態度。

  • That concludes our remarks for Q3. And with that, operator, we're now ready to move to the Q&A session.

    以上就是我們對第三季的發言。好了,操作員,我們現在準備進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

    Michael Ciarmoli,Truist Securities。

  • Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

    Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

  • Hey, good evening, guys. Nice results. Not sure. Russ or Dan, I think I heard this. LEAP, are we now targeting $1 billion in revenues next couple of years? I think the previous target was 2030.

    嘿,晚上好,各位。結果不錯。沒有把握。我好像聽見了Russ或Dan的聲音。LEAP,我們現在的目標是在未來幾年內實現10億美元的營收嗎?我認為之前的目標是2030年。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. In the next few years, meaning towards the end of the late '29, '30 time frame.

    是的。在接下來的幾年裡,也就是 2029 年底、2030 年底這段時間。

  • Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

    Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

  • Okay. So still there, no change.

    好的。還是老樣子,沒有任何改變。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No change but because we approach '26, '29 starts getting a lot closer.

    沒有什麼變化,但是因為我們即將迎來 '26','29' 也越來越近了。

  • Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

    Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

  • Got it. Yes, makes sense. And then just the confidence level on the cash flow, I mean, you mentioned the contract assets with receivables and inventory up $185 million sequentially. What are the parts that are causing the choke points there? Do you already have them in stock? And I mean, raising the free cash flow guidance, I guess you've got good line of sight and confidence there.

    知道了。是的,有道理。然後,關於現金流的信心水平,我的意思是,你提到合約資產,包括應收帳款和庫存,環比增長了 1.85 億美元。造成那裡堵塞點的原因是什麼?你們已經有現貨了嗎?我的意思是,提高自由現金流預期,我想你們在這方面已經有了很好的展望和信心。

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes, we do. Listen, first of all, Q3 would have been at my -- sort of my expectation level if it weren't for about a dozen engines that just slipped into Q4 in terms of shipment. And all of that is really due to the constrained parts, specific constrained parts primarily around forgings and castings. As a result, we have a line of sight on the engines that we'll ship in Q4 and result in that outcome. We're seeing the depth of delay on some of these constrained parts get better. As a matter of fact, that's been the core issue all year is even though on-time delivery might be improving for the OEs, on certain constrained parts, for me, the depth of delay got worse. So as that begins to improve, it's just a few parts on several hundred engines that result in the cash flow improvement quarter-over-quarter.

    是的,我們有。首先,如果不是因為大約有十幾台引擎的交付推遲到了第四季度,那麼第三季度的業績本來應該達到我的預期水準。而這一切實際上都是由於受限部件造成的,特別是鍛件和鑄件周圍的特定受限部件。因此,我們對將在第四季度交付的引擎有了清晰的了解,並最終實現了這一目標。我們看到,在某些受限部分,延遲深度正在改善。事實上,今年的核心問題是,儘管對於原始設備製造商 (OEM) 而言,某些受限部件的準時交付情況可能有所改善,但對我來說,延誤的程度卻加重了。因此,隨著情況開始好轉,光是幾百台引擎上的幾個零件就能帶來季度環比現金流的改善。

  • Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

    Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

  • Got it. Helpful. Thanks guys. I'll jump back in the queue.

    知道了。很有幫助。謝謝各位。我重新排隊。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sounds good. Thanks Mike.

    聽起來不錯。謝謝你,麥克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

    肯‧赫伯特,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

    Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

  • Yeah, hey, good afternoon, Nice results. Maybe, Dan or Russ, the adjustments you've made in some of your long-term contracts, which, obviously, I think you called out $300 million to $400 million of revenues eliminated next year at 0 margin, do you see all of that benefit in 2026? Or how much of that maybe then bleeds into 2027 as well?

    是啊,下午好,結果不錯。丹或拉斯,你們對一些長期合約所做的調整,顯然,我認為你們提到明年將損失 3 億至 4 億美元的收入,利潤率為 0,你們認為所有這些好處在 2026 年都能實現嗎?或者說,其中有多少會延續到 2027 年?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. Most of it happens in 2026. So it starts to feather in. First of all, the contracts change. I've also got to burn down existing inventory, but we believe, over these contracts, the $300 million to $400 million accrues as a reduction of revenue year-over-year in 2026.

    是的。大部分事件發生在2026年。於是它開始慢慢變淡。首先,合約發生了變化。我還得清理現有庫存,但我們相信,根據這些合同,到 2026 年,這 3 億至 4 億美元的損失將導致收入逐年減少。

  • Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

    Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

  • Okay. That's great. And can you remind us what's the backlog on your LEAP business? I know you've called that out in the more recent quarters. And is there a reason maybe you're not giving it now? Can you give us an update on that?

    好的。那太棒了。您能否提醒我們一下,您的 LEAP 業務目前已經積壓了多少訂單?我知道你在最近幾季都提到過這一點。你現在不說有什麼原因嗎?您能為我們提供一下最新進展嗎?

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. During the quarter, Ken, I think we reported last time that we were a little over $1 billion in backlog, and we're seeing about 5% growth this quarter.

    是的。肯,我想我們上次報告說,本季度我們的積壓訂單略高於 10 億美元,而本季度我們看到了約 5% 的增長。

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Great thanks Russ. I'll pass it back there.

    非常感謝Russ。我會把它遞回去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gavin Parsons with UBS.

    瑞銀集團的加文·帕森斯。

  • Gavin Eric Parsons - Analyst

    Gavin Eric Parsons - Analyst

  • Hey Gavin. I just want to go back to supply chain for a second. What unlocked there? Is your sense that that's sustainable? Or was that just kind of a surge or a reallocation of parts maybe amongst customers?

    嘿,加文。我想再回到供應鏈的話題上來一下。那裡解鎖了什麼?你認為這種做法可持續嗎?或者那隻是客戶之間的一種需求激增或零件重新分配?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • I don't think it's going to be a surge of parts. During the year, I had this depth of delay on the constrained parts. That really got bad over the summer. We're seeing these constrained parts and they really are the smallest part of our supply chain that's holding up these very large dollar values of, in particular, contract assets. So you'll see that the contract assets unwind as these come in.

    我不認為會出現零件供應激增的情況。在這一年中,我在受限部分出現瞭如此嚴重的延誤。夏天的時候情況變得非常糟糕。我們看到這些受限零件,它們實際上是我們供應鏈中最小的一部分,卻支撐著價值巨大的合約資產。所以你會看到,隨著這些資金的流入,合約資產會逐漸解除。

  • It's forgings and castings. It's the same characters. And so it is true that the supply chain overall is getting somewhat better. But if it doesn't get better on my constrained parts for StandardAero engines sitting in the shop, those engines don't ship. We are seeing that occurring now. As a matter of fact, there's a discrete list of engines with ship dates on them that makes us pretty confident that all of this will unwind.

    它是鍛件和鑄件。角色沒變。因此,供應鏈整體上確實有所改善。但是,如果我車間裡存放的 StandardAero 引擎的受限零件的情況沒有改善,這些引擎就無法出貨。我們現在就看到了這種情況。事實上,有一份標明船舶建造日期的引擎清單,這讓我們相當有信心,這一切最終都會得到解決。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • This is an important part of our measurement system because people tend to focus on the measurement of on-time delivery, but on-time delivery only tells part of the story. You really do have to look at a second order measure, which is we call depth of delay. A lot of other companies use that same terminology. And the reason for that is because if you are 2 days late versus 2 months late, that's a big difference. But in the on-time delivery measure, they both count the same.

    這是我們衡量體系的重要組成部分,因為人們往往只專注於準時交付的衡量,但準時交付只能說明部分問題。你確實需要考慮二階指標,我們稱之為延遲深度。很多其他公司也使用同樣的術語。原因在於,遲交兩天和遲交兩個月之間有很大的差別。但在準時交貨率方面,兩者權重相同。

  • So your on-time delivery may not be changing or may move 1 point, so you have to look to the next -- the second order, which is your depth of delay. And if you see the delays that were 30 days now becoming 7 days and 5 days, then that gives you confidence. You know that the supply chain, in fact, is getting closer to supporting the actual line flow that we need that we use for our forecasting.

    因此,您的準時交貨率可能不會改變,或者可能只會提高 1 個百分點,所以您必須考慮下一個因素——第二個因素,即您的延遲深度。如果你看到原本需要 30 天的延誤現在縮短到 7 天甚至 5 天,那麼你就會充滿信心。你知道,實際上,供應鏈正越來越接近支持我們進行預測所需的實際生產線流程。

  • So that's what gives us confidence. We saw the depth of delay actually increase over the summer, and then it started drawing back. So we feel comfortable that the supply chain is, in fact, improving, even though we've not seen all of those parts flush completely through to us, we have good line of sight.

    這就是我們信心的來源。我們看到,夏季期間延誤的程度實際上有所增加,然後開始緩解。因此,我們感到有信心,供應鏈實際上正在改善,儘管我們還沒有看到所有零件完全輸送到我們這裡,但我們對其發展趨勢有很好的了解。

  • Gavin Eric Parsons - Analyst

    Gavin Eric Parsons - Analyst

  • I appreciate the detail. I guess speaking of days, when you think about long-term cash flow conversion, do you guys have a target DSO? And how much cash is this 1 day?

    我很欣賞這種細緻的觀察。我想說的是,在考慮長期現金流量轉換率時,你們有目標應收帳款週轉天數(DSO)嗎?一天之內能賺多少錢?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. I mean we're going to -- we've said before, we're going to be a 80% to 90% free cash flow conversion company on net income, and that hasn't changed. The DSO, if that's what you're referring to, is not the driver. We get paid on time. DSOs are great. Our terms are typically what you'd expect in this industry. That's not the issue. It really is related to the supply chain on a ton of demand but supply chain as it relates to some specific constrained parts. That's what the -- as that gets better over time, that will be the trigger for sustainable cash flows at the levels I'm talking about.

    是的。我的意思是,我們之前說過,我們將成為一家淨收入中自由現金流轉換率達到 80% 到 90% 的公司,這一點沒有改變。如果您指的是DSO,那麼它並不是驅動程式。我們按時拿到工資。數位示波器很棒。我們的條款通常符合業內慣例。那不是問題所在。這確實與大量需求的供應鏈有關,但供應鏈又與某些特定的受限部分有關。隨著時間的推移,情況會逐漸好轉,這將成為我所說的可持續現金流水準的觸發因素。

  • Gavin Eric Parsons - Analyst

    Gavin Eric Parsons - Analyst

  • Okay, I appreciate the.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

    Myles Walton,來自 Wolfe Research。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

  • Hey, good evening. I was wondering, Miles, if you could start with CRS and the revenue outlook with was, trimmed at the top end. Was that an internalization?

    嘿,晚上好。Miles,我想知道你是否可以先從 CRS 和收入前景說起,其中高端部分有所削減。那是一種內化過程嗎?

  • I was wondering if you could start with CRS. And the revenue outlook was trimmed at the top end. Was that an internalization of the sales? Is that any deterioration in the core outlook?

    我想知道您是否可以先從CRS開始。營收預期上限下調。那是銷售的內部化嗎?核心經濟前景是否惡化?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • I didn't understand the first part. There's not a deterioration of the core outlook. If you're asking about in-sourcing...

    第一部分我沒看懂。核心前景並未惡化。如果你問的是內部採購…

  • Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

  • The $700 million to $720 million.

    7億至7.2億美元。

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Right. No, I mean, it's a lumpy business. We're really excited about a lot of the growth we're getting in particular from the ATI acquisition. Land & Marine had a fantastic quarter. So did the GTF. LEAP revenues were up really strong as a lot of that work is getting in-sourced. And the military platforms are great.

    正確的。不,我的意思是,這行生意不好做。我們對取得的許多成長感到非常興奮,尤其是從收購 ATI 中獲得的成長。陸地與海洋業務本季表現出色。GTF也是如此。由於許多工作都轉移到了公司內部,LEAP 的營收成長非常強勁。軍用平台也很棒。

  • On the accessory side and the commercial side, it's lumpy. And it's kind of the same issue that we have on the MRO side of our house. Remember, my customer -- my third-party customers for CRS business are MRO operators themselves. And when they see constrained parts issues, that bleeds into their demand for component repair services as well. So a lot of the dynamics that my MRO customers are having with supply chain issues are the same issues that flow through to CRS.

    從配件方面和商業方面來看,情況都不盡相同。這和我們公司 MRO 部門遇到的問題有點類似。請記住,我的客戶—我的 CRS 業務的第三方客戶本身就是 MRO 營運商。當他們發現零件供應緊張時,這也會影響到他們對零件維修服務的需求。因此,我的MRO客戶在供應鏈問題上遇到的許多動態,也是CRS面臨的問題。

  • But no, we're very bullish about the business. It grows strongly. In-sourcing activity's up. Like I said, a lot of the -- this business has 20,000 authorized repairs, and to Russ' point, that's growing rapidly. No concerns here over the medium term.

    不,我們對這項業務非常看好。它生長旺盛。內部採購活動增加。正如我所說,很多——這家公司有 20,000 家授權維修點,而且正如 Russ 所說,這個數字還在快速增長。中期內無需擔憂。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

  • Okay. And the $300 million to $400 million reduction in sales from not having to pass through, can you translate that to a benefit explicit on cash that you don't have to hold or maintain? Is there a direct working capital liquidation that you have in 2026 as a result?

    好的。由於無需轉嫁成本,銷售額減少了 3 億至 4 億美元,您能否將其轉化為無需持有或維護的現金所帶來的明確收益?因此,您是否需要在 2026 年進行直接的營運資金清算?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes, it does have a free cash flow benefit. And by the way, like personally, I'm super excited that we're making progress on this. We've been talking about this for a long time. The material pass-through overhang depressing our margins, and now we're beginning to show the true underlying margins of the ES segment.

    是的,它確實能帶來自由現金流收益。順便說一句,就我個人而言,我非常興奮我們在這方面取得了進展。我們已經討論這個問題很久了。材料傳遞成本過高壓垮了我們的利潤率,現在我們開始展現 ES 業務的真實潛在利潤率。

  • How does it benefit cash flow? It will feather into 2026 as the existing inventory winds down. And then the real benefit we'll see -- the significant benefit we'll see is in 2027.

    它如何改善現金流?隨著現有庫存逐漸減少,這種情況將持續到 2026 年。而真正的好處——我們將在 2027 年看到顯著的好處。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • There was a fair amount of discussion about this during the run-up to the IPO, Myles. And we view this as -- we talk about this. And in my opinion, this has promises made, promises kept. We said we were going to do this. And in fact, we've made very good progress. And like Dan said, moving this kind of revenue away from the balance sheet, it helps to illuminate the true financial and operational performance of the underlying business, and that's exactly why we've done it.

    邁爾斯,在IPO之前,這方面有過不少討論。我們認為──我們討論這個問題。在我看來,這是承諾兌現的結果。我們說過我們會做這件事。事實上,我們已經取得了非常好的進展。正如丹所說,將這類收入從資產負債表中轉移出去,有助於揭示企業的真實財務和營運業績,而這正是我們這樣做的原因。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - Analyst

  • Yes. No, I completely concur makes a ton of sense. Is there platforms or customers specifically who are more interested in this than not?

    是的。不,我完全同意,這很有道理。是否有某些平台或客戶對此類內容特別感興趣?

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I wouldn't say that. It's been a theme in a lot of the contracts that have been put in place over the last 15 years. And so really, there's application for this as these contracts come up for renegotiation and renewal, and we're viewing this as something that we can pursue across all of our various customers. It's not just limited to 1 or 2.

    我不會這麼說。在過去15年簽訂的許多合約中,這都是一個共同的主題。因此,當這些合約需要重新談判和續約時,這項技術確實具有應用價值,我們認為我們可以對所有不同的客戶採取這種做法。不僅限於 1 或 2 個。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的克里斯汀‧利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag)。

  • Kristine T. Liwag - Analyst

    Kristine T. Liwag - Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow up on your discussion on the supply-constrained parts. So regarding your visibility, like how much visibility do you have that you're going to get these parts available to you this year and also, look, next year when we look at the industry, demand from the OEs continue to go up. Aftermarket's also very strong. Are you looking at your procurement process a little differently to make sure that you can have access to these parts?

    我只是想就您之前關於供應受限零件的討論做個後續說明。所以關於您的供貨情況,例如今年您能拿到這些零件的供貨情況有多大把握?還有,明年我們來看整個產業,OEM廠商的需求還會持續上升。售後市場也非常強勁。您是否正在以不同的方式審視您的採購流程,以確保您能夠獲得這些零件?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • First of all, visibility is strong for Q4. Otherwise, I wouldn't be raising my -- raising guidance on cash flow. So we feel really good about those engines shipping. What will we do differently in the future? Yes. You should -- we are making some supply chain changes as it relates to constrained parts, ordering those differently.

    首先,第四季前景十分樂觀。否則,我就不會提高我的——提高現金流預期。所以我們對這些引擎的交付情況非常有信心。未來我們會做出哪些改變?是的。你應該這樣做——我們正在對供應鏈進行一些調整,以應對供應緊張的零件,並改變這些零件的訂購方式。

  • However, I'll tell you, Kristine, these constrained parts can change quarter-to-quarter. If you've looked into it -- into these forgings and casting suppliers, it can change quarter-to-quarter what exactly the constraint is. But I'm confident that we'll have our Q4 cash flow improvement, and we will have strong cash flow next year.

    不過,克里斯汀,我可以告訴你,這些受限部分每季都會改變。如果你調查過這些鍛造和鑄造供應商,你會發現限制因素的具體情況每季都在變化。但我相信我們第四季的現金流會有所改善,明年的現金流也會很強勁。

  • Kristine T. Liwag - Analyst

    Kristine T. Liwag - Analyst

  • Great. And following up on the LEAP engine. You've now done quite a few of these engines going through your shop. Can you provide some qualitative or any sort of quantitative information regarding what you've learned so far, how -- the processes versus what you had planned? And when you think about the potential cost reduction you could have over time in servicing these engines, are there areas that have stood out to you so far?

    偉大的。接下來將介紹 LEAP 引擎。現在你的店裡已經維修過不少這樣的引擎了。你能提供一些定性或定量的信息,說明你目前為止學到了什麼,以及實際操作過程與你原計劃的對比情況嗎?當您考慮隨著時間的推移,在維護這些引擎方面可能實現的潛在成本降低時,到目前為止,有哪些方面讓您印象深刻?

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thanks. Good question, Kristine. Still, we're still in low rate initial production. We're kind of in our first year of full production, so we're coming down the learning curve very quickly. We are learning lots of things. At the front end of the business, the backlog is really strong. The RFP environment is very busy. We're getting more than our fair share of wins here. And what we're beginning to see is more PRSV, full performance shop visits versus the -- early on, it was very heavily biased towards CTEM, hospital visits, lower work scope visits. So the fuller work scopes are now beginning to come through. That's important because it's really those engines that advance us down the learning curve and give us the full cycles of learning.

    是的。謝謝。問得好,克里斯汀。不過,我們目前仍處於低速初期生產階段。我們目前還處於全面投產的第一年,所以我們的學習曲線下降得非常快。我們正在學習很多東西。業務前端的訂單儲備非常充足。RFP(徵求建議書)環境非常繁忙。我們在這裡獲得的勝利遠遠超過了我們應得的份額。我們現在看到的是,PRSV(全面性能維修店)訪問量有所增加,而早期則嚴重偏向 CTEM(維修、醫院訪問)和工作範圍較小的訪問。所以更完整的工作範圍現在開始逐漸明朗起來。這很重要,因為正是這些引擎推動我們沿著學習曲線前進,並讓我們完成完整的學習週期。

  • Early on, we said that our experience with a new platform like this, typically, we start reaching an equilibrium state after about 3 years. And we are 1 year into it, and we are coming down the learning curve exactly as anticipated. And that's why the second year, which will be next year, you'll see these things become margin positive. And then in the third year, you'll see these things start approaching accretive levels at the enterprise or at the company level.

    我們之前就說過,根據我們使用這類新平台的經驗,通常情況下,大約 3 年後我們會開始達到平衡狀態。一年過去了,我們的學習曲線也如預期的逐漸下降。所以,到了第二年,也就是明年,你會看到這些項目開始獲利。到了第三年,你會看到這些事情開始在企業或公司層級達到增值水準。

  • So we're happy with the progress that we're making. As we come down the learning curve, the other impact that has is it creates more capacity for us. We're not -- we don't have to spend as many hours on a set work scope, and that gives us essentially free capacity. So no surprises. We're actually quite happy with how this program is progressing.

    我們對目前的進展感到滿意。隨著我們學習曲線的下降,另一個影響是它為我們創造了更大的能力。我們不需要在既定的工作範圍內花那麼多時間,這實際上給了我們空閒的產能。所以,這並不令人意外。我們對這個專案的進展相當滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Analyst

  • I wanted to check in on the Engine Services. Is there anything you could say with regard to the mix in Q4? It looks like we'll see the margin rate step kind of back above 13% but fairly big revenue quarter. Based on your comments on LEAP, it seems like LEAP is growing pretty quickly. So just in terms of the ability to kind of see that uptick in the sequential margin, is there any kind of mix element to that you'd point out?

    我想了解一下引擎服務的情況。關於第四季的業績組合,您有什麼想說的嗎?看起來利潤率會回升到 13% 以上,但本季營收也會相當可觀。根據你對 LEAP 的評論,LEAP 的發展速度似乎相當快。所以,就能夠看到連續利潤率上升這一點而言,您認為其中是否存在某種混合因素?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. Thanks, Seth. First of all, great quarter for Engine Services. If you look at -- excluding that prior period item and excluding the effect of the ramp, margins at ES actually accreted 70 basis points year-over-year in the quarter, so fantastic. In Q4, we're going to see better mix out of some of our platforms, primarily on the BizAv side and some of the military programs. LEAP is LEAP and CFM56, both those programs, as they grow, they're growing at 0% margins. And that will be the case until early 2026. And we feel really good about those turning into positive margins in '26 and then marching their way up the learning curve, so super excited about that. But quarter-over-quarter, we're going to see benefit and like I said, some of the mix on some of our platforms in military BizAv.

    是的。謝謝你,塞思。首先,引擎服務部門本季業績優異。如果排除前期專案和爬坡的影響,ES 的利潤率實際上在本季度同比增長了 70 個基點,這真是太棒了。第四季度,我們將看到一些平台組合更加均衡,主要集中在商務航空領域和一些軍事項目。LEAP 和 CFM56 這兩個項目,隨著它們的發展,利潤率為 0%。這種情況將持續到2026年初。我們對這些在 2026 年轉化為正利潤,然後逐步提升學習曲線感到非常樂觀,對此我們感到非常興奮。但從季度環比來看,我們將看到收益,就像我所說,我們在軍事商務航空領域的一些平台上的一些組合。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. Great. And then really, just more of a clarification on the last part. I think you said earlier that you expect to see just about all of the $300 million to $400 million impact of changes in contract terms in '26 but also that they would feather in as inventory on those particular contracts and as your work on the existing contract winds down. Does that mean there's a stub that's left to affect 2027 revenue and margin?

    好的。好的。偉大的。最後,還要對最後一部分做一些澄清。我認為你之前說過,你預計合約條款變更帶來的 3 億至 4 億美元的影響將在 2026 年顯現,但同時也表示,隨著你現有合約的工作逐步結束,這些影響將作為特定合約的庫存逐步顯現。這是否意味著還有殘餘因素會影響 2027 年的收入和利潤率?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes, right. So what happens is the cash impact doesn't come as fast as the earnings -- revenue impact because I've got different turns on each of these engine platforms. They all turn differently. So that's one. Two, I'm going to burn down my current inventory on hand, and so you'll see the cash impact begin in '26 and get really strong at '27.

    沒錯。因此,現金流的影響不會像收益或收入的影響那樣迅速顯現,因為我在每個引擎平台上的運作情況都不同。它們轉向各不相同。這是其中之一。第二,我打算把現有的庫存全部清空,所以你會看到現金流的影響從 2026 年開始,並在 2027 年變得非常強勁。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Analyst

  • Okay. But no more revenue and margin impact beyond 2027?

    好的。但2027年後不會再對營收和利潤率產生影響?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Great question. No, thanks for clearing that up. It is a onetime impact. So you reset the level with these particular contracts to lower material pass-through, and then you're done. Then you go forward on a normalized run rate.

    問得好。不,謝謝你解釋清楚。這是一次性影響。所以,你透過這些特定的合約重置水平,以降低材料傳遞成本,然後就完成了。然後你按照標準化的運行速度繼續前進。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, you don't recreate that in your forward contract.

    是的,你不需要在遠期合約中重現這一點。

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • But the margin, of course, the margin benefit is ongoing.

    當然,利潤率,利潤率帶來的好處是持續存在的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

    Sheila Kahyaoglu 與 Jefferies 合作。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Maybe if you could talk about business aviation. It just drove some of the guidance revenue increase across end markets. How do we think about what's surprise to the upside? How much of the HTF7000 capacity is now at full run rate? And how do you think about the growth of that business going forward in '26?

    或許你可以談談公務航空。它只是推動了終端市場部分指導收入的成長。我們如何看待意外的利多因素?目前HTF7000的產能有多少處於滿載運轉狀態?您如何看待該業務在 2026 年的發展前景?

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Sheila. We're actually quite excited about that particular end market. If you look at flight hours for BizAv, they continue to increase. And if you look at the concentration of where those flying hours are, they're in the larger aircraft, which is where we're at on many of the engines that we work on, in particular, the HTF7000, where we've got the best possible position as being the worldwide independent holder of that license along with Honeywell. And we're seeing those aircraft platforms are just as fast as they can be built and the flying hours are continuing to go up. So that's why -- we saw that coming, and we've experienced that over the last couple of years as the embedded base for the HTF7000 continues to grow.

    是的。謝謝你,希拉。我們對這個終端市場其實相當興奮。如果你查看商務航空的飛行小時數,你會發現它們持續增加。如果你觀察這些飛行小時的集中情況,你會發現它們都集中在大型飛機上,而這正是我們許多發動機的研發重點,特別是 HTF7000 發動機,我們與霍尼韋爾一起,作為該發動機在全球範圍內的獨立許可證持有者,擁有最佳的地位。我們看到這些飛機平台的建造速度與日俱增,飛行小時數也持續增加。所以這就是為什麼——我們預見了這一點,並且在過去幾年中,隨著 HTF7000 的嵌入式基礎不斷增長,我們也經歷了這種情況。

  • And that's why we made the investment, developed program with the state of Georgia and the Economic Development Council to expand the facility there in Augusta, where our HTF7000 engine shop is at primary one. And we opened that new facility just a couple of months ago, and it's pretty much full already. So it's allowed us to take on more aircraft and bigger aircraft, which generally have bigger work scopes as well as more of those HTF7000 engines. And this engine is going to be the predominant BizAv engine that you're going to see in the market for the next 20 or 30 years. So we're excited that we're on the front end of this thing. We move quickly. We have a really strong, unique, exclusive position on this program.

    因此,我們進行了投資,與喬治亞州和經濟發展委員會共同製定了計劃,以擴大我們在奧古斯塔的工廠,我們的 HTF7000 發動機車間就位於那裡。我們幾個月前才啟用了那個新設施,現在幾乎已經全部滿了。因此,我們能夠承接更多飛機和更大的飛機,這些飛機通常工作範圍更大,而且配備的 HTF7000 發動機也更多。未來 20 到 30 年,這款引擎將成為市場上主要的公務航空引擎。所以我們很高興能站在這個專案的前端。我們行動迅速。我們在這個項目上擁有非常強大、獨特、獨家的地位。

  • And overall, our business aviation group is out in front of this, and the relationships we have with our customers are excellent. We're able to bring in new customers on the larger aircraft like Gulfstream class aircraft that we really just -- we had limited access to before because of the facilities. But now that we've opened up that additional capacity, gives us access to the fastest growing portion of that end market.

    總的來說,我們的公務航空團隊在這方面處於領先地位,我們與客戶的關係也非常好。我們現在能夠吸引更多新客戶乘坐像灣流級飛機這樣的大型飛機,在此之前,由於設施的限制,我們很難接觸到這類飛機。但現在我們已經開放了額外的產能,這使我們能夠進入終端市場中成長最快的部分。

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. Just to clarify, we were just down in the Augusta facility just a couple of weeks ago. So the airframe shop is full, right? It's full of these super midsized jets. The engine shop is ramping, right? So that's what's going to provide the strong revenue growth in '26 and beyond, is the engine shop ramping up. So there's a lot of pent-up demand there that we're now going to be able to fully take advantage of.

    是的。澄清一下,我們幾週前才去過奧古斯塔的訓練基地。所以機身維修車間已經滿了,對吧?那裡停滿了這種超中型噴射機。引擎維修車間正在加緊運轉,對吧?因此,引擎車間的擴建將為 2026 年及以後帶來強勁的收入成長。因此,那裡存在著大量的潛在需求,我們現在將能夠充分利用這些需求。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Can I just ask one more follow-up on the cash flow if that is possible just to better understand the contract adjustment? Why would an airline engine OEM agree to this change? And how does that like pass-through change work, I guess, and impact the free cash flow?

    如果可以的話,我能否再問一個關於現金流的後續問題,以便更好地了解合約調整?為什麼航空公司發動機製造商會同意這種改變?那麼,這種類似轉嫁的變動是如何運作的呢?它又會對自由現金流產生什麼影響呢?

  • Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Daniel Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Sure. So it's really no difference, if not, some advantage to the operator. So the operator today purchases the material from the OE through StandardAero with a small handling fee. And we talked about that before, right, low single-digit margins on this. So that will go away, that incremental profit that I'm getting, and they will work directly with DOE, which really for the end customer is no change to a positive impact for them. So it's -- it hasn't been -- it's a long negotiation, but it's not -- it is value accretive to the end customer for sure.

    當然。所以實際上並沒有什麼區別,甚至對操作員來說還有一些優勢。因此,如今營運商透過 StandardAero 從 OE 購買材料,並支付少量手續費。我們之前也討論過這個問題,沒錯,利潤率只有個位數。所以,我獲得的這部分額外利潤將會消失,他們將直接與美國能源部合作,這對最終用戶來說實際上沒有任何改變,反而會對他們產生正面的影響。所以,這——雖然談判過程很長,但肯定能為最終客戶創造價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jordan Lyonnais with Bank of America.

    Jordan Lyonnais就職於美國銀行。

  • Jordan J Lyonnais - Analyst

    Jordan J Lyonnais - Analyst

  • I wanted to just touch on the M&A pipeline. I know you guys have said it's robust. So where are you looking to supplement the portfolio now? And what are you seeing for valuations?

    我只想簡單談談併購流程。我知道你們都說過它很穩定。那麼,您現在打算從哪些方面來補充投資組合呢?那麼,您對估值有何看法?

  • Alex Trapp - Chief Strategy Officer

    Alex Trapp - Chief Strategy Officer

  • This is Alex by the way. The same as in past quarters where there's a lot out there and we're evaluating everything we see and just waiting for the right one to jump on. So no change really. There continues to be quite a few things out there. There's just a very fragmented industry with a lot of different opportunities and not everyone is a perfect fit.

    對了,這位是亞歷克斯。就像過去幾季一樣,市場上有很多機會,我們正在評估我們所看到的一切,並等待合適的時機抓住它。所以實際上並沒有什麼變化。市面上仍然有很多東西。這個行業非常分散,有很多不同的機會,但並不是每個人都能完美契合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to pass the call back over to Russell for any closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題了。我想把電話轉回給羅素,請他作總結發言。

  • Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Russell Ford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Alicia. I appreciate everybody's continued support. We're real happy with the progress. Looking forward to a strong full year here and real happy to be part of your public market coverage, and StandardAero will continue to deliver as promised. So thanks, everyone. Appreciate your continued support. That is all.

    謝謝你,艾莉西亞。感謝大家一直以來的支持。我們對目前的進展非常滿意。期待今年能取得豐碩的成果,非常高興能參與到你們的公開市場報道中,StandardAero 將繼續履行承諾。謝謝大家。感謝您一直以來的支持。就這些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。