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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to The Boston Beer Company second-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
您好,歡迎參加波士頓啤酒公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我很高興介紹您的主持人,副總法律顧問兼公司秘書 Mike Andrews。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Michael Andrews - Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Michael Andrews - Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome. This is Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of The Boston Beer Company. I'm pleased to kick off our 2025 second-quarter earnings call.
謝謝。下午好,歡迎。我是波士頓啤酒公司的副總法律顧問兼公司秘書麥克安德魯斯。我很高興開始我們 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。
Joining the call from Boston Beer are Jim Koch, Founder and Chairman; Michael Spillane, our CEO; and Diego Renato, our CFO.
參加波士頓啤酒電話會議的有創辦人兼董事長 Jim Koch、執行長 Michael Spillane 和財務長 Diego Renato。
Before we discuss our business, I'll start with our disclaimer. As we state in our earnings release, some of the information we discuss and that may come up on this call reflect the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future. Such predictions are forward-looking statements. It's important to note that the company's actual results could differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements.
在我們討論業務之前,我先說一下免責聲明。正如我們在收益報告中所述,我們在本次電話會議上討論的一些資訊以及可能出現的一些資訊反映了公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測。此類預測屬於前瞻性陳述。值得注意的是,該公司的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。
Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company's most recent 10-Q and 10-K. The company does not undertake to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的因素的更多信息,包含在公司最新的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中。本公司不承諾公開更新前瞻性聲明,無論由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。
I will now pass it over to Jim for some introductory comments.
現在我將把它交給吉姆來做一些介紹性的評論。
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
Thanks, Mike. I'll begin my remarks this afternoon with a few introductory comments and then hand over to Michael, who will provide an overview of our operating results. Michael will then turn the call over to Diego, who will focus on the financial details of our second quarter results as well as our updated financial outlook for 2025. Immediately, following Diego's comments, we will open the line for questions.
謝謝,麥克。今天下午我將以幾句介紹評論開始我的發言,然後交給邁克爾,他將概述我們的經營業績。然後,麥可將把電話轉給迭戈,迭戈將重點介紹我們第二季業績的財務細節以及我們對 2025 年的最新財務展望。在 Diego 發表評論後,我們將立即開設問答熱線。
As I mentioned on our last call, we are operating in a challenging and unpredictable macroeconomic environment. There are near-term factors such as economic uncertainty and household budget tightening, along with pressure on Hispanic drinkers that are negatively impacting consumer demand across the overall beer industry. Additionally, the second quarter had especially poor weather in key selling weeks.
正如我在上次電話會議上提到的,我們正處於一個充滿挑戰且難以預測的宏觀經濟環境中。近期因素包括經濟不確定性、家庭預算緊縮以及西班牙裔飲酒者的壓力,這些因素對整個啤酒產業的消費需求產生了負面影響。此外,第二季主要銷售週的天氣尤其惡劣。
Despite these industry headwinds, we see long-term growth opportunities in Beyond Beer, which we often call the fourth category. Beyond Beer represents more than 85% of our volume and is outperforming the legacy three categories of beer, wine, and spirits.
儘管存在這些行業阻力,我們仍然看到了超越啤酒的長期成長機會,我們通常稱之為第四類。Beyond Beer 佔了我們銷售的 85% 以上,並且表現優於傳統的三大類別:啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒。
We have strong brands. And over the last year, one in three beer drinking households in the US have purchased at least one Boston Beer product from our diverse portfolio. We built a culture of innovation for over 40 years, which allows us to quickly move to where consumer demand is going. The latest example is Sun Cruiser, which is one of the top volume gainers in RTD spirits so far this year.
我們擁有強大的品牌。在過去的一年裡,美國有三分之一的啤酒飲用家庭從我們的多樣化產品組合中購買了至少一種波士頓啤酒產品。40 多年來,我們一直致力於創新文化,這使我們能夠快速回應消費者的需求。最新的例子是 Sun Cruiser,它是今年迄今即飲烈酒中銷量漲幅最大的品牌之一。
With that as context, let's move on to our results and our updated 2025 outlook. In the first half, our depletions were down 3%, and we gained share compared to an overall beer industry that we estimate to be down over 4%. In the second quarter, our depletions were down 5%, and as expected, shipments were significantly ahead of depletions at down only 1%.
基於此,讓我們繼續討論我們的成果和更新後的 2025 年展望。上半年,我們的消耗量下降了 3%,而我們估計啤酒行業整體消耗量將下降 4% 以上,相比之下,我們的市場份額有所上升。在第二季度,我們的消耗量下降了 5%,正如預期的那樣,出貨量明顯高於消耗量,僅下降了 1%。
This was mostly driven by the timing of wholesaler demand for our Sun Cruiser and Truly Unruly innovations, along with lower-than-target wholesaler inventory levels last June. Despite a weaker-than-expected volume environment, we delivered strong margin expansion and EPS growth in the quarter. This was driven by continued progress on our productivity initiatives, which Diego will discuss in his remarks. These efforts have allowed us to raise our gross margin guidance for the year, while also absorbing tariff costs.
這主要是由於批發商對我們的 Sun Cruiser 和 Truly Unruly 創新產品的需求時機以及去年 6 月批發商庫存水準低於目標所致。儘管銷售環境弱於預期,但我們在本季度實現了強勁的利潤率成長和每股盈餘成長。這是由我們的生產力計劃的持續進步所推動的,Diego 將在他的演講中討論這一點。這些努力使我們能夠提高今年的毛利率預期,同時也吸收了關稅成本。
Our business generated over $125 million in operating cash flow in the first half, which enables investments in our brands, as well as $111 million in cash returns to shareholders year-to-date. We believe increased brand investments are needed to support the national launch of Sun Cruiser and to ensure our full portfolio is well positioned when the industry improves.
我們的業務在上半年產生了超過 1.25 億美元的經營現金流,這使我們能夠投資品牌,並且今年迄今已為股東帶來了 1.11 億美元的現金回報。我們相信需要增加品牌投資來支持 Sun Cruiser 的全國發布,並確保我們的全部產品組合在行業改善時處於有利地位。
As always, we'll be disciplined in our approach and will only invest as we see clear opportunities. We're encouraged by the strong consumer reception for Sun Cruiser as well as growth in our smaller brands such Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head.
像往常一樣,我們將採取嚴謹的態度,只在看到明確的機會時才進行投資。我們對 Sun Cruiser 受到消費者的熱烈歡迎以及 Angry Orchard 和 Dogfish Head 等小品牌的成長感到鼓舞。
However, as Michael will discuss, industry headwinds are impacting our larger brands in the near-term. As a result, we do expect shipment declines in the second half of the year as shipments rebalance in line with depletion trends.
然而,正如邁克爾所討論的,行業逆風正在短期內影響我們的大品牌。因此,我們確實預計下半年出貨量將下降,因為出貨量將根據消耗趨勢重新平衡。
In summary, while we are confident we have the right strategies and team in place. We're continuing to invest in our brands, we're building a strong innovation pipeline, and we are making progress on our multi-year productivity initiative.
總而言之,我們有信心我們已經擁有正確的策略和團隊。我們將繼續投資我們的品牌,我們正在建立強大的創新管道,並且我們正在多年生產力計劃上取得進展。
Importantly, we're focused on controlling what we can control, we're executing in the marketplace to improve share trends and expand their margins. I'd like to thank our Boston Beer team, our distributors and retailers for their continued support.
重要的是,我們專注於控制我們能夠控制的事情,我們在市場上執行以改善份額趨勢並擴大利潤率。我要感謝我們的波士頓啤酒團隊、經銷商和零售商的持續支持。
I will now pass the call over to Michael.
我現在將電話轉給邁克爾。
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Our strategy to nurture all our core brands, pursue a fewer things better approach to innovation and transform our supply chain is gaining traction. While we still have work to do, this strategy helped us deliver a significant margin expansion and earnings per share growth in the second quarter, while growing depletions on four of our seven brands.
謝謝,吉姆,大家下午好。我們的策略是培育所有核心品牌、追求更少、更好的創新方法以及改造我們的供應鏈,這些正在獲得越來越大的關注。雖然我們仍有工作要做,但這項策略幫助我們在第二季度實現了利潤率的大幅擴張和每股盈餘的成長,同時增加了我們七個品牌中的四個品牌的損耗。
We also hit a record high in customer service levels and reached nearly 50% in gross margin. As Jim noted, the macroeconomic environment is dynamic, and as such, our depletions have softened since the last earnings call. Beginning in May and accelerating into June, we saw higher-than-expected industry declines in the FMB category, which in measured off-premise channels was down 3% in dollar sales year-to-date after growing 7% for the full year in 2024.
我們的客戶服務水準也創下了歷史新高,毛利率也達到了近50%。正如吉姆所指出的,宏觀經濟環境是動態的,因此,自上次收益電話會議以來,我們的消耗已經有所緩解。從 5 月份開始,到 6 月份,我們發現 FMB 類別的行業下滑幅度高於預期,在 2024 年全年增長 7% 之後,今年迄今為止,按非現場渠道衡量的美元銷售額下降了 3%。
Our current assessment is that economic uncertainty is driving lower traffic at retail as well as fewer social occasions. Also, while we remain underpenetrated with Hispanic consumers, they are a sizable portion of the consumer base for alcoholic beverages and do have some impact on our volume performance.
我們目前的評估是,經濟不確定性導致零售客流量下降以及社交場合減少。此外,雖然我們對西班牙裔消費者的滲透率仍然較低,但他們在酒精飲料消費族群中佔了相當大的比例,確實對我們的銷售表現產生了一定的影響。
We've maintained healthy points of distribution for our portfolio and gain shelf space in the spring resets for Twisted Tea, Sun Cruiser, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, and Hard Mountain Dew. However, traffic levels are down across retail channels and consumers have become somewhat more focused on absolute dollar spend.
我們為我們的投資組合維持了健康的分銷點,並在春季重置中為 Twisted Tea、Sun Cruiser、Samuel Adams、Angry Orchard 和 Hard Mountain Dew 獲得了貨架空間。然而,零售通路的客流量都在下降,消費者也更加關注絕對的美元支出。
This has slowed velocity on our larger brands, Twisted Tea and Truly, which are more exposed to overall economic trends and generate a higher percentage of their sales mix from larger pack sizes. Given these trends, we've lowered our volume forecast for the year as Diego will further discuss in his remarks.
這減緩了我們較大品牌 Twisted Tea 和 Truly 的成長速度,這兩個品牌更容易受到整體經濟趨勢的影響,並且更大包裝尺寸在其銷售組合中所佔的比例更高。鑑於這些趨勢,我們下調了今年的銷售預測,Diego 將在他的演講中進一步討論。
Now I'll provide an update on our brand performance and plans. Twisted Tea held share of the overall FMB category with dollar sales declining 4% in measured channels last quarter. As we expected, Twisted Tea shelf space increased mid-single digits in the spring resets as retailers began trimming their assortments. Twisted Tea brand equities remains strong with a very large organic social following and some of the highest engagement among the top 10 beer brands.
現在我將提供有關我們品牌表現和計劃的最新資訊。Twisted Tea 佔據了整個 FMB 類別的份額,上個季度在測量管道中的美元銷售額下降了 4%。正如我們預期的那樣,隨著零售商開始削減產品種類,Twisted Tea 的貨架空間在春季重置期間增加了中等個位數。Twisted Tea 品牌資產依然強勁,擁有大量自然社交追隨者,並且在十大啤酒品牌中參與度最高。
The Twisted Tea portfolio continues to grow households and has improved its penetration with Hispanic consumers. While that has not provided the growth we initially expected in 2025, it should benefit the brand in the long term. Twisted Tea Lite and Twisted Tea Extreme are growing shelf space and velocities.
Twisted Tea 產品組合繼續擴大家庭規模,並提高了其在西班牙裔消費者中的滲透率。雖然這並沒有帶來我們最初預期的 2025 年的成長,但從長遠來看應該會使該品牌受益。Twisted Tea Lite 和 Twisted Tea Extreme 的貨架空間和銷售速度正在不斷增長。
Our packaging redesign has improved sales per point of Twisted Tea Lite. Twisted Tea Extreme Lemon and Twisted Tea BluRaz are still the top two growth SKUs in the convenience channel among all FMBs. Twisted Tea Lite and Twisted Tea Extreme will be growth drivers for the brand for the remainder of '25 and beyond.
我們重新設計了包裝,並提高了 Twisted Tea Lite 的單品銷量。Twisted Tea Extreme Lemon和Twisted Tea BluRaz依然是所有FMB便利商店通路中成長最快的兩款SKU。Twisted Tea Lite 和 Twisted Tea Extreme 將成為該品牌在 2025 年剩餘時間及以後的成長動力。
We have strong advertising plans for the rest of the summer to position us well when the overall category improves. Campaigns include high-performing tea drop ads and our annual American parties with tea program.
我們為夏季剩餘時間制定了強有力的廣告計劃,以便在整體類別改善時佔據有利地位。活動包括高效的茶葉廣告和我們每年舉辦的美國茶會計劃。
We will also come back in the fall for the fourth year of our college football program. This program now includes in-game advertising, sponsorships with ESPN, and expanded retailer programs with team-specific packages in key markets.
我們還將在秋季回來開展我們的大學橄欖球計畫的第四年。該計劃目前包括遊戲內廣告、與 ESPN 的贊助以及在主要市場提供針對特定球隊的套餐的擴展零售商計劃。
In summary, Twisted Tea is our largest brand, and we're continuing to fully support it with advertising invest and innovation. We continue to believe that despite near-term challenges, these actions, coupled with an improvement in the macro environment will return the brand to growth for the long term.
總而言之,Twisted Tea 是我們最大的品牌,我們將繼續透過廣告投資和創新全力支持它。我們仍然相信,儘管面臨短期挑戰,但這些行動加上宏觀環境的改善將使品牌恢復長期成長。
Moving to Sun Cruiser, which launched last summer and went national in January of this year, Sun Cruiser is a gross margin accretive and has been very well received by wholesalers, retailers, and drinkers. Sun Cruiser has quickly grown to a four share of the RTD spirits category and continues to grow volumes week-over-week as distribution expands. While Sun Cruiser mainly sources from other RTD spirits, it does have some interaction with Twisted Tea.
說到去年夏天推出並於今年 1 月在全國範圍內推廣的 Sun Cruiser,Sun Cruiser 可以增加毛利率,並受到批發商、零售商和飲酒者的一致好評。Sun Cruiser 已迅速成長為 RTD 烈酒類別的四分之一份額,隨著分銷範圍的擴大,銷售量持續逐週成長。雖然 Sun Cruiser 的原料主要來自其他 RTD 烈酒,但它確實與 Twisted Tea 有一些交互作用。
After an initial regional launch focused on independent and on-premise accounts, Sun Cruiser is now on shelf in larger national chain retailers. This has helped us triple our points of distribution this summer compared to earlier in the year.
Sun Cruiser 最初在區域範圍內以獨立客戶和本地客戶為重點推出,現在已在大型全國連鎖零售商上架。與今年早些時候相比,這幫助我們今年夏天的分銷點增加了兩倍。
As these placements drive volume, we expect a greater presence for Sun Cruiser in measured off-premise channel data. It's worth noting that through the first half, only a small portion of Sun Cruiser's total volume was captured and measured off-premise channel data.
由於這些展示位置推動了銷量,我們預計 Sun Cruiser 在測量的場外管道數據中的存在感會更強。值得注意的是,在上半年,Sun Cruiser 總量中只有一小部分是透過場外管道數據捕獲和測量的。
We believe Sun Cruiser will be the next iconic brand for the company and an important growth contributor for the Beyond Beer category. Many consumers discovered it in the on-premise channel, which is a great place to build brands. It is putting up great trial and repeat numbers.
我們相信 Sun Cruiser 將成為該公司的下一個標誌性品牌,並成為 Beyond Beer 類別的重要成長貢獻者。許多消費者在店內通路發現了它,這是一個打造品牌的好地方。它正在進行大量試驗和重複試驗。
It's also showing up on paid social and digital advertising as well as big sports moment television advertising and music and sports venues, sponsorships like the AEG Concert Series and Madison Square Garden.
它也出現在付費社交和數位廣告以及大型體育賽事電視廣告和音樂和體育場館以及 AEG 音樂會系列和麥迪遜廣場花園等贊助商上。
Additionally, Sun Cruiser's presence in the AVP Beach Volleyball and the World Surf League further reinforce its positioning as a brand for sun, sand, and fun.
此外,Sun Cruiser 參加 AVP 沙灘排球和世界衝浪聯盟進一步鞏固了其作為陽光、沙灘和樂趣品牌的定位。
Turning to hard seltzer. The overall hard seltzer category declined 7% in dollars in measured off-premise channels in the second quarter as consumer preferences shift towards more premium RTD spirits-based beverages.
轉向硬蘇打水。由於消費者偏好轉向更優質的即飲烈酒類飲料,第二季度,非現場通路銷售的硬蘇打水整體銷售額下降了 7%。
While Truly continues to be a top two hard seltzer brand and a top four Beyond Beer brand, we're not satisfied with its performance. We're refreshing our marketing strategy and continuing to support the Truly Unruly high ABV innovation as we want to stateside the brand.
儘管 Truly 繼續成為排名前二的硬蘇打水品牌和排名前四的 Beyond 啤酒品牌,但我們對其表現並不滿意。我們正在更新我們的行銷策略,並繼續支持 Truly Unruly 高 ABV 創新,因為我們希望將品牌推向美國市場。
We will be launching a new creative platform with a significant investment in regional media and key markets later in the third quarter. Truly will continue to sponsor US soccer as we begin the year-long lead up to the 2026 World Cup, which will take place in North America for the first time in more than three decades. Truly also will continue to sponsor Barstool Sports podcast, Pardon My Take, and Chicks in the Office, and activate strong retail campaigns.
我們將在第三季稍後推出一個新的創意平台,並對區域媒體和主要市場進行大量投資。在為期一年的 2026 年世界盃準備工作開始之際,Truly 將繼續贊助美國足球,這是 30 多年來美國足球首次在北美舉行。Truly 也將繼續贊助 Barstool Sports 播客、Pardon My Take 和 Chicks in the Office,並進行強大的零售活動。
High ABV offerings continue to be a bright spot in hard seltzer. Truly Unruly has grown to a 3% volume share of hard seltzer, and the Truly Unruly variety pack is the number one dollar-12-pack share gainer in Beyond Beer in the last 12 months.
高酒精度產品持續成為硬蘇打水的一大亮點。Truly Unruly 的銷售份額已增長至硬蘇打水的 3%,而 Truly Unruly 多種包裝是過去 12 個月 Beyond Beer 中 12 美元裝份額增長最多的產品。
Our second variety pack, Truly Unruly Lemonade launched in April and is helping Truly Unruly build momentum and gain shelf space. Our beer brands, Samuel Adams and Dogfish Head, continue to be important parts of our portfolio.
我們的第二個混合裝「Truly Unruly Lemonade」於 4 月推出,它幫助 Truly Unruly 積累了勢頭並獲得了貨架空間。我們的啤酒品牌 Samuel Adams 和 Dogfish Head 繼續成為我們產品組合的重要組成部分。
Samuel Adams American Light launched in glass bottles to support its positioning as the most premium light beer in America. American Light is also featured in our summer patriotic program, along with Samuel Adams Summer Ale. These initiatives have helped the Samuel Adams brand family gain shelf space even while overall craft beer shelf space declines.
Samuel Adams American Light 以玻璃瓶裝推出,以鞏固其作為美國最優質淡啤酒的地位。我們的夏季愛國活動也推出了 American Light 和 Samuel Adams Summer Ale。儘管精釀啤酒的整體貨架空間正在減少,但這些舉措幫助 Samuel Adams 品牌家族獲得了貨架空間。
Dogfish Head grew depletions in the second quarter for the first time in many years behind the successful launch of Grateful Dead Juicy Pale Ale. This is the largest launch in Dogfish Head's 30-year history and continues to build volume and distribution, especially in music venues and other key on-premise accounts.
由於 Grateful Dead Juicy Pale Ale 的成功推出,Dogfish Head 在第二季的銷售額多年來首次出現成長。這是 Dogfish Head 30 年歷史上規模最大的一次發布,並將繼續擴大銷售和分銷,尤其是在音樂場所和其他主要現場帳戶中。
Partnering with the Grateful Dead has allowed our team to gain distribution not only in our core Dogfish markets, but beyond, including the Sphere in Las Vegas for the Company conference. We also developed a limited edition Grateful Dead's 60th anniversary single-serve package that will be sold at the Dead & Company Concert Series in San Francisco next month.
與 Grateful Dead 合作使我們的團隊不僅能夠在核心 Dogfish 市場獲得分銷,而且還能在其他市場獲得分銷,包括在拉斯維加斯的 Sphere 舉辦公司會議。我們還開發了感恩而死樂團 60 週年紀念限量版單份包裝,將於下個月在舊金山的 Dead & Company 音樂會系列中出售。
In cider, Angry Orchard has also returned to growth behind the consumer trend back to more flavorful options. Depletions grew in the second quarter, driven by a higher level of focus for the organization, including increased investment in new sponsorships. The new campaign Don't Get Angry, Get Orchard and our sponsorships of WWE wrestling positively impacted the results and helped the brand gave shelf space.
在蘋果酒方面,隨著消費者回歸更多口味選擇的趨勢,Angry Orchard 也恢復了成長。由於該組織更加重視,包括增加對新贊助商的投資,第二季的消耗增加。新的活動「別生氣,去果園」和我們對 WWE 摔角的贊助對結果產生了積極的影響,並幫助該品牌獲得了貨架空間。
Later this summer, we're launching an exciting program featuring Friday the 13th movie themed advertising, promotions, packaging and displays for Halloween and the peak fall cider season. With respect to Hard Mountain Dew, we're encouraged to see positive depletions for a fourth straight quarter. Hard Mountain Dew Code Red, which was released earlier this year, is now distributed in single-serve.
今年夏天晚些時候,我們將推出一項令人興奮的計劃,以《十三號星期五》電影為主題的廣告、促銷、包裝和展示,以迎接萬聖節和秋季蘋果酒旺季。就硬激浪而言,我們很高興看到其連續第四季度銷售出現正成長。今年稍早推出的 Hard Mountain Dew Code Red 現已以單份形式發售。
Earlier this month, we launched a cross-merchandising partnership with Tostitos that is being utilized to help support further growth. We continue to expect growth for Hard Mountain Dew this year, but it will be a multiyear effort for this product to become a meaningful part of our volume mix.
本月初,我們與 Tostitos 建立了交叉銷售合作夥伴關係,以幫助支持進一步的成長。我們仍然預期今年硬激浪的銷量會有所成長,但要讓該產品成為我們銷量組合中有意義的一部分,還需要多年的努力。
In closing, we continue to make progress as an organization. We're executing our commercial plans to take advantage of the rest of the summer selling season, and we're continuing our longer-term innovation and productivity initiatives. While current industry trends are challenging, we continue to believe we will create long-term value for shareholders through innovation, focused execution, and margin improvement.
最後,作為一個組織,我們不斷地進步。我們正在執行商業計劃,以利用夏季銷售季的剩餘時間,並且我們正在繼續我們的長期創新和生產力計劃。儘管當前的行業趨勢充滿挑戰,但我們仍然相信,透過創新、專注執行和利潤率提高,我們將為股東創造長期價值。
I'd like to thank our team for all their hard work executing the summer season and for remaining agile in a dynamic operating environment.
我要感謝我們的團隊在夏季所做的所有努力以及在動態營運環境中保持敏捷。
I'll now pass the call over to Diego to review our second-quarter financial results and 2025 guidance.
現在我將把電話轉給 Diego,讓他回顧我們的第二季財務表現和 2025 年指引。
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone. Depletions in the second quarter decreased 5% and shipments decreased 0.8% compared to the second quarter of last year, primarily driven by declines in the Truly Hard Seltzer and Sam Adams brands that were only partially offset by growth in the company's Sun Cruiser and Dogfish Head brands.
謝謝你,麥可。大家下午好。與去年同期相比,第二季度消耗量下降 5%,出貨量下降 0.8%,主要原因是 Truly Hard Seltzer 和 Sam Adams 品牌銷量下滑,但該公司的 Sun Cruiser 和 Dogfish Head 品牌銷量增長僅部分抵消了這一下滑。
As Jim noted earlier, shipments were higher than depletions in the quarter due to the timing of wholesaler demand for our Sun Cruiser and Truly Unruly innovations as well as lower than target wholesaler inventory levels last June.
正如 Jim 之前指出的那樣,由於批發商對我們的 Sun Cruiser 和 Truly Unruly 創新產品的需求時機以及去年 6 月批發商庫存水平低於目標,本季度的出貨量高於消耗量。
We believe distributor inventory of 4.5 weeks on hand as of June 28 is an appropriate level for each of our brands. Revenue for the quarter increased 1.5% due to increased pricing and favorable product mix, partially offset by lower volumes.
我們認為,截至 6 月 28 日,分銷商庫存為 4.5 週,對於我們每個品牌來說都是合適的水平。由於價格上漲和產品組合有利,本季營收成長了 1.5%,但銷量下降部分抵消了這一成長。
Our second-quarter gross margin of 49.8% increased 380 basis points year over year. Gross margin primarily benefited from improved brewery efficiencies, procurement savings, price increases, and product mix, which were partially offset by increased inflationary and tariff costs.
我們第二季的毛利率為 49.8%,年增 380 個基點。毛利率主要受益於啤酒廠效率的提高、採購成本的節省、價格的上漲和產品組合的改善,但通貨膨脹和關稅成本的增加部分抵消了這些因素的影響。
Late in the second quarter, we did experience some tariff costs, which negatively impacted gross margin. Advertising, promotional, and selling expenses for the second quarter of 2025 increased $15.5 million, or 10.7% year over year, primarily due to increased brand investment in media.
第二季末,我們確實經歷了一些關稅成本,這對毛利率產生了負面影響。2025 年第二季的廣告、促銷和銷售費用比去年同期增加了 1,550 萬美元,增幅為 10.7%,這主要是由於品牌對媒體的投資增加。
General and administrative expenses for the second quarter decreased $2.3 million or 4.7% year over year, primarily due to a decrease in salaries and benefits costs from lower incentive compensation. We reported EPS of $5.45 per diluted share, an increase of 24.1% compared to the prior year. Our strong EPS performance was driven by higher gross margins and lower share count, partially offset by lower volumes and increased investments in our brands.
第二季的一般和行政費用較去年同期減少 230 萬美元,或 4.7%,主要原因是激勵薪資減少導致薪資和福利成本減少。我們報告的每股收益為 5.45 美元,比上年增長 24.1%。我們強勁的每股盈餘表現得益於更高的毛利率和更低的股票數量,但部分被更低的銷售量和對我們品牌的投資增加所抵消。
For the first half of the year, we grew revenue 3.6%, delivered a 49.1% gross margin and generated $7.58 of EPS. These results reflect shipment growth that was ahead of our depletions. As we discussed in our last call, we expect shipment trends to rebalance with depletions in the second half of the year.
今年上半年,我們的營收成長了 3.6%,毛利率達到 49.1%,每股盈餘為 7.58 美元。這些結果反映出出貨量的成長超過了我們的消耗量。正如我們在上次電話會議中所討論的那樣,我們預計下半年出貨量趨勢將重新平衡。
Post our last earnings calls, depletion trends have softened and we have updated our volume guidance to reflect a more dynamic industry environment. Our depletion trends for the first 29 weeks of 2025 have decreased 3% from 2024.
在我們上次的收益電話會議之後,消耗趨勢已經減弱,我們更新了我們的銷售指導以反映更具活力的行業環境。2025 年前 29 週的消耗趨勢比 2024 年下降了 3%。
We now expect our volume to be down high-single digits to down low-single digits for the year. We're providing a wide volume range as there are still many weeks of the summer selling season ahead of us and the timing of any improvements in the overall beer industry remain uncertain. We continue to expect price increases of between 1% and 2%.
我們現在預計今年的銷量將下降高個位數到低個位數。我們提供多種銷量,因為夏季銷售季仍有許多周的時間,而且整個啤酒行業的改善時間仍不確定。我們繼續預期價格上漲 1% 至 2%。
Our strong gross margin performance year-to-date has enabled us to raise our gross margin guidance for the year to 46% to 47.3%, up from 45% to 47% previously. Our updated guidance now includes the impact of tariffs, which we estimate to be a headwind of 70 to 100 basis points. Significant progress on our ongoing productivity initiatives have been key to raising our gross margin guidance even as we absorb the impact of tariffs.
我們今年迄今強勁的毛利率表現使我們能夠將全年毛利率預期從先前的 45% 至 47% 上調至 46% 至 47.3%。我們更新後的指引現在包括關稅的影響,我們估計關稅將帶來 70 至 100 個基點的阻力。即使我們承受了關稅的影響,我們正在進行的生產力計劃所取得的重大進展也是提高毛利率指引的關鍵。
Now I'll provide an update on our initiatives across our three buckets of multiyear saving projects, which are positioning us to better respond to potential changes in the volume environment, product mix and tariffs. We continue to expect contributions from all three buckets, as I discussed on our last call.
現在,我將介紹我們三個多年期節省項目中的最新舉措,這些舉措使我們能夠更好地應對產量環境、產品組合和關稅的潛在變化。正如我在上次電話會議上討論的那樣,我們繼續期待所有三個方面的貢獻。
In brewery performance, second-quarter performance was better than we expected, driven by benefits from higher line efficiencies. Our brewery performance targets for the full year of 2025 include continued improvements in OEE, driven by process improvements on our breweries and continue to increase our internal production.
在啤酒廠業績方面,第二季的業績好於我們的預期,這得益於生產線效率的提升。我們 2025 年全年的啤酒廠績效目標包括繼續提高 OEE,這得益於我們啤酒廠的製程改進,並繼續提高我們的內部產量。
In the second quarter, we increased our domestic internal production to 76% of our volume compared to 69% in the second quarter of last year. In our procurement savings bucket, we continue to see opportunities on packaging and ingredients, primarily due to price negotiations and recipe optimization. Our second-quarter results benefited from lower negotiated pricing on certain packaging and ingredients, which we expect will continue throughout 2025.
第二季度,我們的國內內部產量從去年第二季的 69% 提高到 76%。在我們的採購節省桶中,我們繼續看到包裝和成分的機會,這主要歸功於價格談判和配方優化。我們第二季的業績受益於某些包裝和成分的較低協商價格,我們預計這種狀況將持續到 2025 年。
In waste and network optimization, we're continuing our efforts to improve our processes and systems. The automated customer ordering and inventory management system that we implemented last year continues to help us further reduce waste and optimize our network.
在廢棄物和網路優化方面,我們正在繼續努力改進我們的流程和系統。我們去年實施的自動化客戶訂購和庫存管理系統繼續幫助我們進一步減少浪費並優化我們的網路。
Turning to our advertising spend and EPS guidance. We continue to expect increases in advertising, promotional and selling expenses to range from $30 million to $50 million. Most of the increase occurred in the first half of the year.
轉向我們的廣告支出和每股收益指引。我們繼續預期廣告、促銷和銷售費用將增加 3,000 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元。大部分增幅發生在上半年。
This does not include any change in freight costs for shipments of our products to our distributors. Exclusive of our estimated impact of tariffs, we are reiterating our full-year 2025 earnings per diluted share of between $8 and $10.50.
這不包括將我們的產品運送給分銷商的運費的任何變化。不包括關稅的預期影響,我們重申 2025 年全年每股攤薄收益在 8 美元至 10.50 美元之間。
Including tariffs, full-year 2025 earnings per diluted share is expected to be between $67 and $9.54. Based on the information currently available and based on tariff programs announced year-to-date, we estimate that tariffs will have an unfavorable 2025 cost impact of approximately $15 million to $20 million, or $0.96 to $1.28 earnings per diluted share. These estimates include an unfavorable gross margin impact of between 70 to 100 basis points for the full year, giving expected buying patterns and inventory currently on hand.
包含關稅後,預計2025年全年稀釋每股收益在67美元至9.54美元之間。根據目前掌握的資訊以及年初至今公佈的關稅計劃,我們估計關稅將對2025年的成本造成約1500萬至2000萬美元的不利影響,或稀釋每股收益0.96至1.28美元。根據預期的購買模式和目前的庫存,這些估計包括全年 70 至 100 個基點的不利毛利率影響。
We expect most of the negative impact from tariffs in the second half of the year. We'll continue to closely monitor the tariff environment and are looking across our operations for opportunities to mitigate some of the tariff headwinds.
我們預計關稅的大部分負面影響將在今年下半年顯現。我們將繼續密切關注關稅環境,並在我們的營運中尋找機會減輕一些關稅阻力。
As you model out the year, please keep in mind the following factors. Our business is impacted by seasonal volume changes. For the fourth quarter, typically our lowest absolute gross margin rate of the year. Shipments were ahead of depletion trends for the first half, which we expect to reverse in the second half. The third quarter is a much larger volume quarter than the fourth quarter given the seasonality of our business.
在製定年度模型時,請記住以下因素。我們的業務受到季節性銷售變化的影響。第四季通常是我們全年最低的絕對毛利率。上半年出貨量超出了消耗趨勢,我們預計下半年這一趨勢將會逆轉。考慮到我們業務的季節性,第三季的銷量比第四季大得多。
As you may recall, in the prior year, we were not able to fully ship to meet demand in the second quarter and caught up in the third quarter as a result of seasonality and the comparison to prior year we expect most of the 2025 shipment reversal to occur in the third quarter, with shipments declined as expected to be in the low to mid-teens.
您可能還記得,在去年,由於季節性原因,我們未能完全滿足第二季度的需求,並在第三季度趕上了需求,與去年相比,我們預計 2025 年大部分出貨量逆轉將發生在第三季度,出貨量預計將下降到十幾歲到十幾歲之間。
As I mentioned earlier, the increase in brand investment has occurred mostly in the first half of the year. Our reinvestment in brand spend began in the fourth quarter of 2024. So as a reminder, the fourth quarter of 2025 will be lapping a high base of prior year brand investments.
我剛才提到,品牌投入的增加主要發生在上半年。我們對品牌支出的再投資始於 2024 年第四季。因此需要提醒的是,2025 年第四季的品牌投資將超過前一年的水平。
Turning to capital allocation. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $212.4 million and an unused credit line of $150 million, which provides us with the flexibility to continue to invest in our base business, fund future growth initiatives, and return cash to our shareholders through our share buyback program.
轉向資本配置。本季結束時,我們的現金餘額為 2.124 億美元,未使用的信用額度為 1.5 億美元,這使我們能夠靈活地繼續投資於我們的基礎業務,資助未來的成長計劃,並透過我們的股票回購計劃向股東返還現金。
For the full year of 2025, we are lowering our capital expenditure guidance range by $20 million to between $70 million and $90 million and are focusing our spend on supporting our productivity program.
對於 2025 年全年,我們將資本支出指導範圍下調 2000 萬美元至 7000 萬至 9000 萬美元之間,並將重點投入支持我們的生產力計劃。
During the 13-week period ended June 28, 2025, and the period from June 29, 2025, through July 18, 20 2025, we repurchased shares in the amount of $50 million and $11.3 million. As of July 18, 2025, we had approximately $317 million remaining on the $1.6 billion share repurchase authorization.
在截至 2025 年 6 月 28 日的 13 週期間以及從 2025 年 6 月 29 日至 2025 年 7 月 18 日期間,我們回購了價值分別為 5000 萬美元和 1130 萬美元的股票。截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日,我們在 16 億美元的股票回購授權中還剩餘約 3.17 億美元。
This concludes our prepared remarks. And now we'll open the lines for questions.
我們的準備好的演講到此結束。現在我們開始回答問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Filippo Falorni, Citi.
(操作員指示)花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。
Filippo Falorni - Analyst
Filippo Falorni - Analyst
Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. So obviously, the summer was off to a pretty soft start in the beer category. And it does seem like that the July, the early July data continues to be soft. So maybe can you give us an update on the actual rate of your business? What are your thoughts as you enter to your point into the key Q3 quarter from a depletion standpoint?
嘿。大家下午好。顯然,今年夏天啤酒市場的開局相當疲軟。七月份,七月初的數據似乎持續疲軟。那麼,您能否向我們介紹一下您業務的實際費率?從消耗的角度來看,進入關鍵的第三季時您有何想法?
And then from a brand standpoint, obviously, the biggest slowdown we've seen is in Twisted Tea net of the contribution from Sun Cruiser. So can you help us understand how you see the evolution of the two, like in terms of the decline of Twister net of some of the distribution gains and contribution from Sun Cruiser going forward? Thank you.
然後從品牌的角度來看,顯然,我們看到的最大放緩是 Twisted Tea 扣除 Sun Cruiser 的貢獻。那麼,您能否幫助我們了解您如何看待這兩者的發展,例如,在扣除部分分銷收益和 Sun Cruiser 的貢獻後,Twister 的衰落程度如何?謝謝。
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
Yeah. Let me answer that one. Your instincts are right that the start of the summer was quite slow through the whole industry. It looks like the industry is off 4% or 5%, us a little bit less. So we have gained volume and dollar share this year.
是的。讓我來回答這個問題。你的直覺是正確的,整個產業在夏季開始時都表現得相當緩慢。看起來整個產業下降了 4% 或 5%,我們的下降幅度稍微小一些。因此,今年我們的銷量和美元份額都有所增加。
My take on it is we started this year thinking it was going to be down 1%, 2%. And there were some drivers behind that, the moderation, health concerns, sociability, a little less cannabis through D9 and just the overall macroeconomic uncertainty.
我的看法是,我們今年年初就認為它會下降 1% 或 2%。這背後有一些驅動因素,包括適度消費、健康問題、社交性、透過 D9 減少大麻消費以及整體宏觀經濟的不確定性。
I think things got a little worse in the second quarter because, on top of those factors, the weather was just bad. In the Northeast, there were 13 consecutive weekends that had some rain. And then there was also added pressure on the Hispanic community and people going out last and both of those increased the pressures on the beer business.
我認為第二季的情況會變得更糟,因為除了這些因素之外,天氣也很糟糕。東北地區已連續13個週末出現降雨。此外,西班牙裔社區和最後出門的人也面臨額外的壓力,這兩者都增加了啤酒業務的壓力。
So the second quarter was worse for us than the first. As you can see from our nine-week results versus the 26, we're still down the same 3%. So you can do the arithmetic on that. But the added three weeks didn't not push down our year-to-date number. So that's how I would look at the industry.
因此,第二季度對我們來說比第一季更糟。從我們前九週的結果與前 26 週的結果相比可以看出,我們仍然下降了 3%。所以你可以對此進行算術運算。但增加的三週並沒有降低我們年初至今的數字。這就是我對這個行業的看法。
You asked about Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser and the interaction there. Broadly speaking, we're about flat for the hard tea category. Twisted Tea tends to respond as the rest of the FMB category does to consumers, Sun Cruiser's a premiumization of the tea category.
您詢問了有關 Twisted Tea 和 Sun Cruiser 以及它們之間的互動。整體而言,硬茶類別的銷售量基本持平。Twisted Tea 的回應方式與 FMB 類別中的其他產品對消費者的回應方式相同,而 Sun Cruiser 則是茶類別的高端化產品。
So to the extent, we're swapping some Twisted Tea drinkers for Sun Cruiser drinkers, it's margin and revenue accretive. We would hope that, as the year goes on, the momentum that we have behind Sun Cruiser will more than make up for what's going on with Twisted Tea.
因此,從某種程度上來說,我們將一些 Twisted Tea 飲用者換成了 Sun Cruiser 飲用者,這可以增加利潤和收入。我們希望,隨著時間的推移,Sun Cruiser 背後的發展勢頭將足以彌補 Twisted Tea 所遭遇的損失。
And there isn't that much interaction between the two. When we run numerator data, it looks like Twisted Tea is about 20% of the drop in Twisted Tea is attributable to the vodka tea category, which is not just Sun Cruiser but also some high noon, surfside, some smaller Happy Dad kind of things, a Good Boy, smaller entrants. So our efforts are really trying to evaluate what's going with Twisted Tea.
而兩者之間的互動並不多。當我們運行分子數據時,看起來 Twisted Tea 的銷量下降了約 20%,這歸因於伏特加茶類別,其中不僅有 Sun Cruiser,還有一些正午、衝浪、一些較小的 Happy Dad 之類的東西、Good Boy,以及較小的進入者。因此,我們的努力實際上是為了評估 Twisted Tea 的現狀。
It's a brand that's grown for several decades, and we think some of the decline is fixable through -- there are places where the gap between Twisted Tea and mass domestics has gotten significantly bigger over the last four years, so we may have push the price up during COVID and the preceding couple of years, higher than sustainable. So we may have to make some adjustments there.
這是一個已經成長了幾十年的品牌,我們認為部分下滑是可以解決的——在過去四年中,Twisted Tea 和大眾國產茶之間的差距明顯擴大,因此我們可能在新冠疫情期間和前幾年將價格推高至高於可持續的水平。所以我們可能需要做一些調整。
And the Hispanic component of Twisted Tea is the highest of anything in our portfolio. Our data suggests about 20%. So we think some of that loss is not permanent. And as things normalize, some of that will come back.
Twisted Tea 的西班牙裔成分是我們投資組合中最高的。我們的數據顯示約為 20%。因此我們認為部分損失並不是永久性的。隨著情況恢復正常,其中一些將會恢復。
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
We've also seen increases in Twisted Tea Light and Twisted Tea Extreme has been successful. And as we stated on the last call, we expect it to pick up additional points of distribution in shelf space as last year was a big year for smaller competitors to come in.
我們也看到 Twisted Tea Light 和 Twisted Tea Extreme 的銷量有所成長,並且取得了成功。正如我們在上次電話會議上所說的那樣,我們預計它將在貨架空間中獲得額外的分銷點,因為去年是小型競爭對手進入的重要一年。
The good news is we held them off, and we were getting that space back. And again, net-net, we basically held market share so despite the decline. So there's -- as we spoke to, we will continue to invest heavily in Twisted Tea and make adjustments and continue to drive innovation through the family.
好消息是我們阻止了他們,並且奪回了那塊空間。再說一遍,儘管市佔率有所下降,但我們基本上還是保持著淨利。因此,正如我們所說的那樣,我們將繼續大力投資 Twisted Tea,做出調整,並繼續透過家族推動創新。
Filippo Falorni - Analyst
Filippo Falorni - Analyst
Great. Thank you. Very helpful. I'll pass it on.
偉大的。謝謝。非常有幫助。我會傳達的。
Operator
Operator
Peter Grom, UBS.
瑞銀的 Peter Grom。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
Thanks, operator. Good evening, guys. I wanted to just follow up on Filippo's question. And I guess, recognizing that summer has not been off to the best start from a category standpoint, but you alluded to it in the release, year-to-date depletions are 3%. So -- what I'm trying to understand is the updated guide seems to imply trends get a lot worse sequentially.
謝謝,接線生。大家晚上好。我只是想繼續回答菲利波的問題。我想,從類別的角度來看,夏季的開局並不是最好的,但您在發布中提到了這一點,今年迄今為止的消耗量為 3%。所以——我想理解的是,更新後的指南似乎意味著趨勢會逐漸惡化。
So can you maybe just help us understand why that may be the underlying assumptions embedded in that? Is that simply being conservative? Or is there a reason that you would expect depletion to decelerate further from here?
那麼,您能否幫助我們理解其中可能蘊含的潛在假設呢?這僅僅是保守嗎?或者,您有理由預期資源消耗速度將從現在起進一步減緩?
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well -- So the reality is we started from the beginning of the year and saying, look, we want to be ready to support our brands in the summer. This is even before the slowdown in depletion. And from that, we accelerated our production versus last year. We shipped a little bit ahead of last year and we said, look, eventually, the shipment and depletions will come back in balance in the back end of the year.
嗯——事實上,我們從年初就開始說,看,我們希望準備好在夏天支持我們的品牌。這甚至是在資源消耗減緩之前。從那時起,我們的產量就比去年有所加速。我們的出貨量比去年略有增加,我們說,看,最終,出貨量和消耗量將在年底恢復平衡。
Now, what has changed from the last conversation to now as we just discussed, the depletion started a lot softer for the industry in the second quarter than we expected. And therefore, that rebalance is going to be a little bit harder than we saw at the same depletion forecast.
現在,正如我們剛才討論的那樣,與上次談話相比,現在的情況發生了變化,第二季度該行業的消耗比我們預期的要弱得多。因此,重新平衡將比我們在相同的消耗預測中看到的要困難一些。
So it's not necessarily that the forecast changes per se. But because we have a softer Q2, then that means it's going to be -- the rebalancing, it's going to be a little bit bigger as we went into Q3 and Q4. So that's the biggest driver of the piece. It's the knock on effect that the Q2 depletions more than anything else.
因此預測本身並不一定會改變。但由於第二季經濟較為疲軟,這意味著,進入第三季和第四季後,再平衡的規模將會更大一些。所以這是作品最大的驅動力。這是第二季比其他任何因素造成的最嚴重的連鎖反應。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
Okay. And then, Jim, I was maybe hoping to get -- to go back to your response and just in terms of how category growth has evolved. You pointed to the structural headwinds that led to your view that the category would be down 1% to 2% this year.
好的。然後,吉姆,我可能希望——回到你的回答,並了解類別成長是如何演變的。您指出,結構性逆風導致您認為今年該類別的銷售額將下降 1% 至 2%。
And you touched on the weakening trends year-to-date. I think you mostly alluded to unfavorable weather, what's been going on with the Hispanic consumer. And this may be hard to parse that.
您還提到了今年迄今為止的疲軟趨勢。我認為您主要提到了不利的天氣以及西班牙裔消費者的狀況。這可能很難解析。
But when you look at what's happening from a category perspective, are the impacts related to moderation or the structural headwinds. Are those playing out as you would have anticipated? Or are they actually maybe worse or having a bigger impact on the category than what you thought entering this year?
但是,當你從類別角度看待正在發生的事情時,其影響是否與緩和或結構性逆風有關。這一切是否如您所預期的發展呢?或者它們實際上可能比您今年想像的更糟或對該類別的影響更大?
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
I would say playing out about as I expected maybe D9, the THC has become a bigger thing, but the GLP scare that we all had, I think, has mitigated. It turns out that 70%, 80% of the people who take it regain all the weight back in the 12 months after they stop. But basic answer is those long-term structural headwinds have been about what I thought.
我想說,正如我所預料的那樣,D9 可能已經變得越來越嚴重,但我認為我們所有人對 GLP 的恐懼已經減輕了。事實證明,70% 到 80% 的服用者在停止服用後的 12 個月內體重會全部反彈。但基本答案是,這些長期結構性阻力與我所想的一致。
And the greater decline has come from, I think, from the weather and the pressure on the Hispanic community. And we've had better weather for the last three or four weeks. So I think that's actually improved things by a point or two.
我認為,更大的下降是由於天氣和西班牙裔社區的壓力。過去三四周來,我們的天氣一直比較好。所以我認為這實際上使情況改善了一兩個百分點。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
Got it. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.
知道了。太感謝了。我會傳達的。
Operator
Operator
Nadine Sarwat, Bernstein.
納丁·薩瓦特,伯恩斯坦。
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Hi. Good evening, everybody. Two for me. One straightforward, I know you called out lowering the estimate for the dollar impact of tariffs. Could you just give us the moving parts on that? And then maybe a second bigger picture question on Sun Cruiser. You called out the belief that it will be the next big growth driver for the business. The RTD space is already quite crowded, though, still growing strongly. And we've seen boom-and-bust cycles in the past in Beyond Beer in the fourth category space.
你好。大家晚上好。對我來說是兩個。直截了當的一點是,我知道您呼籲降低對關稅對美元影響的估計。可以跟我們講一下其中的具體細節嗎?然後也許還有關於 Sun Cruiser 的第二個更大的問題。您表示相信它將成為業務的下一個重大成長動力。RTD 領域已經相當擁擠,但仍在強勁成長。過去,我們已經看到第四類領域中超越啤酒產業的繁榮與蕭條的循環。
So, all this to say, it's really great to see the strong performance of Sun Cruiser and another brand offering up some real growth for the group. But how do you think of the brand's long-term room for growth given those considerations and what we can learn from history in these categories?
所以,總而言之,看到 Sun Cruiser 和另一個品牌的強勁表現為集團帶來真正的成長,真是太好了。但考慮到這些因素,您如何看待該品牌的長期成長空間?我們可以從這些類別的歷史中學到什麼?
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Let me take the second part of that, and then I'll pass it back to Diego. So I think one of the things, as a company, Jim talked about Twisted Tea and that was a 20-year overnight sensation, where it was a long, steady, healthy growth trajectory, and it's got a solid foundation, because we make Truly and we experienced the Truly spike, and that was built very differently because that was built with a lot of brand extensions. It came down, and it's still -- we're still trying to find balance in that portfolio.
讓我來談談第二部分,然後我會把它交還給迭戈。因此,我認為,作為一家公司,吉姆談到 Twisted Tea 時說,它是 20 年來的一次一夜爆紅,有著長期、穩定、健康的增長軌跡,並且有著堅實的基礎,因為我們生產 Truly,我們經歷了 Truly 的巔峰,它的建立方式非常不同,因為它是通過大量的品牌延伸而建立起來的。它下降了,而且仍然——我們仍在努力尋找投資組合的平衡。
So we've taken those lessons with Sun Cruiser. And the most important thing we did here was we built this on-premise to start, as Jim noted, that there's a lot of great exposure to consumers and they, therefore, go out and purchase it off-premise as they enjoy the product.
因此我們從 Sun Cruiser 中吸取了這些教訓。我們在這裡做的最重要的事情就是在現場建立了這個系統,正如吉姆所說,它給消費者帶來了很多很好的曝光機會,因此,當他們喜歡這個產品時,他們會去場外購買。
So we've started really strong there, and we've rolled it responsibly across the country. It hasn't been a spike. It is -- we're just getting into measured channels now. And it is the fastest ramping product we've ever done, but we're doing it in a very measured, controlled way.
因此,我們在那裡打下了堅實的基礎,並負責任地將其推廣到全國。這並不是一個高峰。是的──我們現在才剛進入測量管道。這是我們迄今為止生產速度最快的產品,但我們的生產方式非常謹慎且可控。
So we've learned a lot of lessons here. We've done a lot of things right. We've certainly made all the mistakes in the world as well, but we're building this on a strong foundation. And I think for the people that taste the product, it comes back as best-in-class. And so typically, that is what has always worked for Boston Beer is that we make the best product and tell great stories around it and the consumer finds it.
所以我們在這裡學到了很多教訓。我們做了很多正確的事。我們當然也犯過各種各樣的錯誤,但我們正在堅實的基礎上繼續前進。我認為對於品嚐過該產品的人來說,它都是同類產品中最好的。通常來說,波士頓啤酒一直行之有效的方法是生產最好的產品,並圍繞它講述精彩的故事,讓消費者發現它。
So we're confident. We know it's a long run. We will continue to invest heavily, and you heard some of that, but we're going to stay on-premise as well as in arenas and around music and sports. So this will be a long-term play for us. And we like what we see so far. So I'll pass it to Diego.
所以我們有信心。我們知道這是一個漫長的過程。我們將繼續大力投資,你們也聽到了一些,但我們將繼續在現場、競技場以及音樂和體育領域開展業務。所以這對我們來說將是一個長期的行動。我們對目前所看到的情況感到滿意。所以我會把它傳給 Diego。
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Thank you, Michael. On a tariffs point of view, as you know, the tariffs have multiple elements. So it's the tariff assets currently announced, it's also the timing of when the products are coming in. And the third piece is some of the mitigating actions.
謝謝你,麥可。從關稅的角度來看,如你所知,關稅有多種要素。因此,這是目前公佈的關稅資產,也是產品進入的時間。第三部分是一些緩解措施。
So if you look at where we were a quarter ago to now, a few things have changed. Aluminum actually went the other way. But for example, our POS material estimates on tariffs went down significantly with some of the changes in the tariffs in the last few months. So it's a constant up and down depending on the different countries and different pieces.
因此,如果你回顧一個季度前到現在的情況,你會發現有些事情已經改變了。鋁實際上卻走向了另一條路。但例如,隨著過去幾個月關稅的一些變化,我們對關稅的 POS 材料估計大幅下降。因此,它會根據不同的國家和不同的部分不斷上下波動。
The third piece is we've actually worked with some of our suppliers, especially around POS to mitigate some of the POS impact for this year. So that's the third reason why we made the adjustment. So it's a combination of up, downs, and timings of the announcements.
第三點是我們實際上已經與一些供應商合作,特別是在 POS 方面,以減輕今年的一些 POS 影響。這就是我們做出調整的第三個原因。因此,這是公告上漲、下跌和時間的結合。
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Understood. And just to confirm, you said that tariff impact is net of mitigation?
明白了。只是為了確認一下,您說關稅影響是扣除緩解措施後的結果嗎?
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Yes. That is net of mitigation.
是的。這是減免後的淨額。
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Perfect. Thank you very much.
完美的。非常感謝。
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Let me be very specific. It's net of mitigation within our suppliers. Now, there's a lot of things we're doing in our gross margin and other things that are going to provide savings and that's why we're taking our gross margin guidance up. But direct mitigation, it's net of mitigation.
讓我說得更具體一點。這是我們供應商內部的緩解淨額。現在,我們在提高毛利率和其他方面做了很多努力,這些努力可以帶來節約,這就是我們提高毛利率指引的原因。但直接緩解是緩解的淨值。
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst
Understood. That's very helpful and clear. Thank you. I will pass it on.
明白了。這非常有幫助,而且很清晰。謝謝。我會傳達它。
Operator
Operator
Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的 Eric Serotta。
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. I want to come back to gross margins a bit. It's been a long time coming that you guys have been driving to get back to the high 40%s, low 50%s and you did it one quarter doesn't -- nobody is declaring victory after one quarter, but I have to give you credit. So the question then becomes where to from here?
偉大的。非常感謝您回答這個問題。我想稍微回到毛利率的話題。你們花了很長時間才將銷售額恢復到 40% 以上、50% 以下,而且你們在一個季度內就做到了——沒有人在一個季度後就宣布勝利,但我必須給你們打分數。那麼問題就變成下一步該去哪裡了?
How are you thinking about the next year midterm gross margin potential with the productivity improvements that you've made to date? And then I just wanted to clarify, are current margins benefiting at all from any hedges in aluminum or Midwest premium, if we mark-to-market with where input costs are today, would there be more pressure? Thanks.
考慮到您迄今為止所取得的生產力改進,您如何看待明年中期的毛利率潛力?然後我只是想澄清一下,目前的利潤率是否會從鋁或中西部溢價的任何對沖中受益,如果我們根據今天的投入成本進行按市價計價,是否會有更大的壓力?謝謝。
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No problem. Yes, we're -- I'll start by saying I think our operations team in our procurement team has done a great job in gross margin. So we appreciate your comments. I think the challenge that we're seeing is, as well as all the initiatives that we're doing are going, we're also having headwinds with tariffs, we're having headwinds with some of the volume reductions we've taken.
沒問題。是的,首先我想說,我認為我們的採購團隊的營運團隊在毛利率方面做得很好。因此我們很感謝您的評論。我認為,我們所面臨的挑戰是,除了我們正在採取的所有措施之外,我們還面臨關稅方面的阻力,以及我們所採取的一些減量措施所帶來的阻力。
So I think, overall, we're still very happy with the guidance that we're giving that will take us to that high 40%s number. Now if that changes in the future, and we have to see a reduction in tariffs, we can -- we see some of the incremental volumes that we think we'll get in the future, then we'll revise our midterm target. But right now, I think we're very happy with the performance, not only that, but it's allowed us to offset some of the tariffs that we've seen so far.
因此我認為,總體而言,我們仍然對我們給予的指導感到非常滿意,這將使我們達到 40% 的高數字。現在,如果這種情況在未來發生變化,我們必須看到關稅降低,我們可以——我們看到一些我們認為未來會獲得的增量,那麼我們就會修改我們的中期目標。但目前,我認為我們對業績非常滿意,不僅如此,它還使我們能夠抵消迄今為止所看到的一些關稅。
And I think the third piece that I'd add through that process is -- we're also getting a little bit of benefit from mix from Sun Cruiser, which is something that we really like. So, again, I think as we go into 2026, those are the three things that we're going to be looking at when we come back at the end of the year and give us -- and give you, guys, the guidance for 2026, is how all those things come together for our gross margin target for next year.
我認為透過這個過程我要補充的第三點是——我們也從 Sun Cruiser 的混合中獲得了一點好處,這是我們真正喜歡的東西。因此,我再次認為,當我們進入 2026 年時,這些是我們在年底回來時要關注的三件事,並為我們提供 2026 年的指導,即所有這些因素如何結合起來實現我們明年的毛利率目標。
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Great. And then a question on Twisted. You've seen a bit more tentative than I can remember in terms of Twisted potential and figuring out exactly what's going on. I know this year has been clearly disappointing.
偉大的。然後是關於 Twisted 的一個問題。在 Twisted 潛力和弄清楚到底發生了什麼方面,你所看到的比我記得的更具嘗試性。我知道今年顯然令人失望。
But as you diagnose the issue, how are you handicapping the prospects of getting back to the historical low double-digit rates? Reading between the lines, we sound pretty confident earlier this year. But on this call, you've recognized more interaction with Sun Cruiser, and overall, seemed a bit more tentative.
但是,當您診斷問題時,您如何阻礙恢復到歷史最低兩位數利率的前景?從字裡行間可以看出,我們今年早些時候聽起來相當有信心。但在這次通話中,您意識到與 Sun Cruiser 的互動更多了,而且總體而言,似乎更加謹慎。
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So I'll start here, and then I think I'll pass it to Jim. But I think one of the things that we've said here as a company all along is regardless of what happens in the macro environment, we see ourselves holding or gaining market share. So that regardless of what happens, we feel like we're going to compete.
是的。所以我將從這裡開始,然後我想我會把它傳遞給吉姆。但我認為,我們公司一直在說的一件事是,無論宏觀環境如何變化,我們都認為自己能夠保持或獲得市場份額。因此,無論發生什麼,我們都感覺我們要參加比賽。
The bigger the business is for us, the more likely we are to track to the overall macro situation. And traffic is down across most of the channels we sell in. So there are bright spots in there, as we said, both light and extreme are performing better than the balance of the portfolio.
我們的業務越大,我們就越有可能追蹤整體宏觀情勢。我們銷售的大多數通路的流量都在下降。因此,正如我們所說,其中也有亮點,輕型和極端型的表現都優於投資組合的平衡。
So Jim constantly reminds us is that we're controlling what we can control. Twisted Tea is a large investment. It will remain strong. We are leaning into it. We think it's really important to convert the consumers that are shopping and give them a great proposition when they are in the store. So we're staying strong and aggressive there. But the macro environment is something that we can't control.
所以吉姆不斷提醒我們,我們正在控制我們能夠控制的事情。Twisted Tea 是一項大投資。它將保持強勁。我們正傾向於此。我們認為,轉變購物消費者並在他們進入商店時為他們提供很好的建議非常重要。因此,我們在那裡保持強勢和積極進取。但宏觀環境是我們無法控制的。
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
Yeah. I would break the problem down. I'd start with, the brand looks healthy. And I say that because our singles, which is a big part of the volume is flat to slightly up. And the issue is in 12 packs. And that is a bunch of things going on there.
是的。我會把這個問題分解開來。首先,該品牌看起來很健康。我之所以這麼說,是因為我們的單曲銷售佔了很大一部分,目前持平或略有上升。本期雜誌共有 12 份。那裡發生了許多事。
I did allude to one of them for maybe one-third of that volume we push the price up close to the price of Sam Adams. So it was -- and historically, it's been in between a regular domestic beer, where it has a lot of interaction, and craft beer and we pushed it up closer to craft. So we may have been overly aggressive in a piece of that volume.
我確實提到了其中之一,也許其中三分之一的交易量我們將價格推高至接近薩姆亞當斯的價格。所以 — — 從歷史上看,它介於普通國產啤酒和精釀啤酒之間,普通國產啤酒與精釀啤酒有很多互動,而我們將其推向了更接近精釀啤酒的水平。因此,我們可能在該卷的某個部分錶現得過於激進了。
So -- and we're also -- we don't have a really good handle on it yet, but we lost a lot of display space in the last few months between Memorial Day and today, because we got pushed off the floors. I was really surprised when I've been out in the market to see how the retailers have swung towards RTD displays, which would be things like big displays of Sun Cruiser.
所以——而且我們——我們還沒有很好地處理這個問題,但是從陣亡將士紀念日至今天的幾個月裡,我們失去了很多展示空間,因為我們被推下了樓層。當我走進市場,看到零售商紛紛轉向 RTD 展示(例如 Sun Cruiser 的大型展示)時,我感到非常驚訝。
But also of things like -- well, Gallo, who we never really thought we were competing for beer display space, with Gallo had big high noon displays and big displays for their new vodka lemonade, Lucky One. So displays that, last year, went to Twisted Tea didn't go there, and that may correct itself going forward.
還有像嘉露(Gallo)這樣的品牌,我們從來沒想過我們會在啤酒展示空間上競爭,嘉露在正午時分有大型展示區,他們的新款伏特加檸檬水“幸運一號”(Lucky One)也有大型展示區。所以,去年在Twisted Tea的展示區沒有在那裡,這種情況未來可能會得到糾正。
So that gives me some optimism. We've got a healthy brand, and we will continue to support it at very high levels and continue -- and we got an increase in our distribution this year. So those retailers still have confidence in it. It's a big brand for our wholesalers. So we're continuing to get support from them. So I feel more comfortable about the long term than the last few months.
這給了我一些樂觀的感覺。我們擁有一個健康的品牌,我們將繼續以非常高的水平支持它並繼續——今年我們的分銷量有所增加。所以那些零售商對此還是有信心的。對於我們的批發商來說,這是一個大品牌。因此我們將繼續得到他們的支持。因此,與過去幾個月相比,我對長期前景感到更加放心。
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Very helpful. Thanks, Jim.
非常有幫助。謝謝,吉姆。
Operator
Operator
Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
All right. Thank you. Hi, everyone. I wanted to circle back with a few questions just on your shipment and depletion guidance. I guess, first, I'd be curious to hear why you've widened the ranges so much, especially considering only five months left in the year. I understand everything you talked about and the pressures that are out there, but what has changed with your visibilit? -
好的。謝謝。大家好。我想再次問幾個有關您的裝運和消耗指導的問題。我想,首先,我很好奇為什麼你要把範圍擴大這麼多,尤其是考慮到今年只剩下五個月了。我理解您談論的一切以及存在的壓力,但是您的知名度有什麼變化嗎?-
And then trying to understand your shipment guidance, which does imply shipments will be down low double-digits at the midpoint in the second half. So why so negative, especially when you suggest wholesaler inventories are in a pretty good place?
然後嘗試了解您的出貨量指導,這確實意味著下半年中期出貨量將下降兩位數。那麼為什麼會如此消極,特別是當您認為批發商庫存狀況相當良好時?
And then finally, I might have missed this, but I assume you no longer expect Twisted to grow low single-digits this year? And should we expect a decline of low single digits for Twisted? Is that what's implied in your guidance? Thanks.
最後,我可能錯過了這一點,但我認為您不再期望 Twisted 今年將達到低於個位數的成長?我們是否應該預期 Twisted 的銷量將出現個位數的低幅下滑?這是您的指導中所暗示的嗎?謝謝。
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Diego Reynoso - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Okay. Perfect. So thank you for your question. So I'll take the first one, and then I'll pass it on if anybody wants to add something. So the first piece is, I think we've talked a lot on the questions and on the call of how drastically depletions changed over the last eight, nine weeks.
好的。完美的。感謝您的提問。因此,我將選擇第一個,然後如果有人想添加某些內容,我就會將其傳遞下去。因此,第一點是,我認為我們已經就這些問題以及過去八、九週內資源消耗如何發生巨大變化的問題進行了大量討論。
And, therefore, I think right now, nobody in the industry can accurately tell you what the market is going to do. And I think -- for that reason, I think, we've widened our range of the depletion targets because we know what we can control, but we're still -- again, there's the weather. There's a bunch of other things that have been happening that are outside our control. So I think it's the prudent thing to do is to expand our range in a more volatile environment.
因此,我認為目前業內沒有人能夠準確地告訴你市場將會如何改變。我認為——出於這個原因,我認為我們擴大了消耗目標的範圍,因為我們知道我們能夠控制什麼,但我們仍然——再說一次,還有天氣。還有很多事情發生,是我們無法控制的。因此我認為,在更動盪的環境中擴大我們的範圍是明智之舉。
But the shipments is a direct consequence of the depletion range. Because at the end of the day, we want to make sure that we maintain the right level of inventories. So if our depletions improve in the second half of the year, our shipments will improve in the second half of the year. But what we don't want to do is set a shipment target that will increase our year-end inventories if the depletions don't actually improve.
但出貨量減少的直接後果是射程枯竭。因為歸根結底,我們希望確保維持適當的庫存水準。因此,如果我們的消耗情況在下半年有所改善,那麼我們的出貨量也會在下半年有所改善。但我們不想做的是設定一個出貨目標,如果庫存消耗實際上沒有改善,就會增加我們的年終庫存。
So, again, for me, the prudent thing is we're doing everything we can to be on the higher end of our range. And I think the actions we're taking from a brand investment point of view, from an execution point of view are great.
因此,對我來說,謹慎的做法是盡一切努力將產品範圍擴大到更高的水平。我認為,從品牌投資和執行的角度來看,我們所採取的行動非常棒。
What I -- what we do not have is a key visibility of how the market is going to behave in the next 12 weeks. And although you're right, we're in the middle of the year, the highest piece of our selling season in July and August are still to come. So we'll know more in the next few weeks when we see the July results and see when August comes in. But right now, I think the prudent thing is to expand that range. Do you want to add --
我所缺乏的是,我們對未來 12 週市場趨勢缺乏關鍵的預見性。雖然您說得對,但現在已經是年中了,7 月和 8 月的銷售旺季還沒到來。因此,當我們看到 7 月的結果並知道 8 月何時到來時,我們將在接下來的幾週內了解更多資訊。但現在,我認為謹慎的做法是擴大這個範圍。你想添加--
Sorry, I'll say, we don't usually give guidance by brand, but I'll look to Michael and Jim and see if they want to add something on to Twisted Tea.
抱歉,我想說,我們通常不會根據品牌提供指導,但我會向邁克爾和吉姆尋求建議,看看他們是否想在 Twisted Tea 上添加一些東西。
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. I would just anticipate that we continue to maintain our market share and grow where the opportunity presents itself. But given the macro headwinds, it's really hard to predict.
不。我只是希望我們能夠繼續保持我們的市場份額,並在機會出現時實現成長。但考慮到宏觀不利因素,這確實很難預測。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Okay. Thank you. I'll pass it on.
好的。謝謝。我會傳達的。
Operator
Operator
Rob Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.
Rob Ottenstein,Evercore ISI。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Great. Thank you very much. I have a two-part question. Your beer depletion have been weak for a while (technical difficulty)
偉大的。非常感謝。我有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。你的啤酒消耗量已經減弱了一段時間(技術難度)
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
We have a little trouble hearing you, Rob, you're breaking up. You sound a little robotic.
羅布,我們聽不清楚你說什麼,你要分手了。你的聲音聽起來有點像機器人。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Is this a little better?
這樣是不是好一點了?
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
A lot better. Thank you. Appreciate that.
好多了。謝謝。非常感謝。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Right, right. So beer depletions have been weak for a number of years now. They seem to be getting worse -- and we can throw out the weather, the Hispanic consumer. I mean it's a long litany. So the question is, number one, in terms of the industry, how much longer can this go without more strategic actions, consolidation, given the high fixed costs of large parts of the industry?
對,對。因此,啤酒消耗量多年來一直處於低位。他們的情況似乎越來越糟——我們可以拋開天氣和西班牙裔消費者不談。我的意思是,這是一長串的禱文。因此,首先的問題是,就產業而言,考慮到產業大部分環節的固定成本很高,如果不採取更多策略行動和整合,這種情況還能持續多久?
And then tied to that, Jim, are you thinking any differently now about more strategic moves like whether to get into energy drinks or do anything fundamentally different you have been doing given these headwinds, structural headwinds that seem to keep getting greater and greater?
然後與此相關,吉姆,考慮到這些不利因素,這些結構性不利因素似乎越來越大,你現在對更具策略性的舉措有什麼不同的看法嗎?例如是否要進入能量飲料領域,或做任何與你一直在做的事情根本不同的事?
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
Let me take that one. We are always looking for opportunities. And to be honest, yes, three years ago, we probably didn't look at anything outside of alcohol. Now, our innovation team is starting to poke at opportunities there, and we certainly haven't found anything that we think is attractive and that we're good at, and we recognize that in the non-alc space or some of the best marketing -- and best marketing companies in the world and best innovators.
讓我來拿那個。我們一直在尋找機會。老實說,是的,三年前,我們可能除了酒精之外什麼都沒關注。現在,我們的創新團隊開始在那裡尋找機會,但我們還沒有發現任何我們認為有吸引力的、我們擅長的東西,我們認識到在非酒精領域或一些最好的行銷——以及世界上最好的行銷公司和最好的創新者。
Lord knows how many energy drinks come out every year. It's beyond dozens. So it's super competitive. So we're just looking at it not knowing whether it's the right place for us. But we are always looking at innovations.
天知道每年有多少種能量飲料問世。已逾數十。所以競爭非常激烈。所以我們只是看看它,不知道它是否適合我們。但我們始終在關注創新。
And in terms of M&A, that's above my pay grade. There's lots of investment bankers thinking very diligently about who should buy whom and that's really not in the cards for us.
就併購而言,這超出了我的職權範圍。許多投資銀行家都在認真思考誰該收購誰,但這對我們來說確實不切實際。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
But do you think we will see some of that -- not naming names, but do you think the industry will see some consolidation either on the beer side, beverage alcohol, or beverages in general?
但您認為我們會看到其中的一些嗎——不點名,但是您認為該行業會在啤酒、酒精飲料或一般飲料方面出現一些整合嗎?
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
I'd have to say my opinion is uninformed and nonchalant. I mean, I don't know what Miller is going to buy, or is somebody at Gallo, Coca-Cola, or Keurig. The people on this call are much smarter than I am about that. So I wouldn't even venture an opinion.
我不得不說我的觀點是無知且冷漠的。我的意思是,我不知道米勒會買什麼,或者 Gallo、可口可樂或 Keurig 的某個人會買什麼。在這一點上,參加這次電話會議的人比我聰明得多。所以我什至不敢發表任何意見。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Much too humble. But thank you.
太謙虛了。但謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Bill Kirk, ROTH Capital Partners.
(操作員指示)比爾柯克 (Bill Kirk),羅仕資本合夥公司 (ROTH Capital Partners)。
William Kirk - Analyst
William Kirk - Analyst
Hey. Thank you. Good afternoon. I want to round out that guidance range conversation just because year-to-date EPS is already above the low end of the full-year range. So is negative earnings, is that really a possibility for the back half of the year?
嘿。謝謝。午安.我想完善一下指導範圍討論,因為年初至今的每股收益已經高於全年範圍的低端。那麼,今年下半年真的有可能出現負收益嗎?
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Spillane - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So look, fourth quarter is always our lowest quarter and that's definitely a possibility. I think in Q3, it really is going to depend on the depletions of July and August. So if the market continues to be down 10% for the summer, yeah, the math would say that is a possibility.
所以看,第四季始終是我們最低的季度,這絕對是有可能的。我認為在第三季度,這確實將取決於七月和八月的消耗。因此,如果市場在夏季繼續下跌 10%,那麼從數學上講,這是可能的。
Now, we've seen some changes in the trends in July. We haven't seen the final July numbers, but I'm hopeful that, that's a low probability. But it's still a chance if we don't see a change in the industry trends.
現在,我們看到七月的趨勢發生了一些變化。我們還沒有看到七月的最終數據,但我希望,這種可能性很小。但如果我們沒有看到行業趨勢發生變化,這仍然是一個機會。
William Kirk - Analyst
William Kirk - Analyst
Okay. And then, Jim, you mentioned D9 maybe being bigger than you initially expected. And you obviously have a history of being very quick with innovation as these adjacent segments materialize. So do you have any D9 plans for the US market?
好的。然後,吉姆,你提到 D9 可能比你最初預期的要大。隨著這些鄰近領域的實現,你們顯然有著快速創新的歷史。那麼,你們有針對美國市場的 D9 計畫嗎?
And separately, given your comment on displays at retail, are you seeing the D9 folks buy and like slot for shelf space at retailer and pay the retailers, which obviously alcohol can't do. Are you seeing any of that?
另外,鑑於您對零售展示的評論,您是否看到 D9 消費者購買並喜歡在零售商處佔據貨架空間並向零售商付款,而這顯然是酒精飲料無法做到的。你看到這些了嗎?
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
Let's see, I'll break it in half. We do have a cannabis business in Canada. So it's something that we dipped our toe in with the idea of being ready if something developed in the United States. And until hemp-based THC, we didn't really see a lot of opportunity in the US, and nobody is really making a lot of money in that business. Consumers don't go to dispensaries.
我看看,我把它掰成兩半。我們在加拿大確實有大麻生意。因此,我們嘗試了一下,希望為美國出現的新情況做好準備。在大麻基 THC 出現之前,我們在美國並沒有看到太多機會,而且沒有人真正在該行業賺到大錢。消費者不會去藥局。
So now the hemp-based THC currently in a handful of states is a different proposition. It's basically selling in the beer cooler. So you don't have to go to a dispensary to get it. It's right there in front of you as an alternative to beer. And it's getting real traction in a very small percentage of the country.
因此,目前在少數幾個州,以大麻為基礎的 THC 是不同的主張。它基本上是在啤酒櫃裡銷售的。因此您不必去藥房購買。它就在您面前,是啤酒的替代品。但它只在全國很小一部分地區獲得了真正的支持。
You're talking about Minnesota, recently, Tennessee in the last 12 months, Louisiana, places where there is some kind of regulatory framework around it. My overall assessment of the opportunity is it was created by the farm bill. And the politics of it are a mass completely volatile, change from day to day if anybody is following like what's going on in Texas.
您談論的是最近的明尼蘇達州、過去 12 個月的田納西州、路易斯安那州,這些地方都有某種監管框架。我對這個機會的總體評估是,它是由農業法案創造的。如果有人關注的話,就會發現那裡的政治局勢非常動盪,每天都在變化,就像德州發生的事情一樣。
So we don't even know if that's going to be a business in six months. There's people handicapping it, and one of my distributors said, their information was 50-50 that it will get killed, that McConnell and like-minded people who never intended to create this loop hole will shut it down completely.
所以我們甚至不知道六個月後這是否會成為一門生意。有人對此進行阻撓,我的一位經銷商說,他們得到的信息是,該計劃將被取消的可能性是 50%,而麥康奈爾和那些從未打算製造這個漏洞的志同道合的人將徹底關閉該計劃。
So given how subject all of this is to a political process that is extremely volatile and is sorting itself out and takes place at a state level, at a federal level. If you poke at it, the FDA could shut it down. They have a regulatory authority over the ingredients and beverages, so you don't just have the farm bill as a threat.
因此,考慮到這一切都受到極不穩定的政治過程的影響,並且正在州一級和聯邦一級進行自我整理。如果你戳它,FDA 可能會將其關閉。他們對原料和飲料擁有監管權,因此你不會只是受到農業法案的威脅。
So it's too volatile right now for us. But to your point, we have been pretty quick to capitalize on opportunities. So -- and we have experience in it and capabilities that we could apply to it. But right now, I wouldn't put us down for any volume this year. And that could change tomorrow.
所以現在對我們來說波動太大了。但正如您所說,我們已經很快抓住了機會。所以——我們在這方面有經驗,也有能力可以應用。但就目前而言,我不會對我們今年的任何銷量給予任何評價。而這種情況明天就可能改變。
William Kirk - Analyst
William Kirk - Analyst
Thank you. And are they paying slotting fees at retail? Like are those beverages buying cooler space, the D9 guys?
謝謝。他們在零售店支付上架費嗎?就像那些飲料在購買冷藏空間一樣,D9 夥計們?
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
That's a really good point, and the current regulatory -- suggested regulatory practices from our friends and our trade organizations, the BA, the BI, even the general MBWA position have not really focused on trade practices as a regulatory requirement.
這是一個非常好的觀點,而當前的監管——我們的朋友和貿易組織、BA、BI,甚至一般 MBWA 立場所建議的監管實踐並沒有真正將貿易實踐作為監管要求。
I think they ought to be, it would be really a bad thing if they were allowed to buy all the shelf space they want and bring in refrigerators and coolers and buy doors, and so forth. I have not seen that. The players that you find out there, it's very fragmented, very fragmented and nobody is making a lot of money to go out and spend away a Red Bull or Monster would in sucking up all that shelf space.
我認為他們應該這樣做,如果允許他們購買他們想要的所有貨架空間、引入冰箱和冷藏機、購買門等等,那將是一件非常糟糕的事情。我還沒見過。你會發現,這些參與者非常分散,沒有人能賺到很多錢,去花掉像紅牛或怪獸那樣的錢來佔據所有的貨架空間。
William Kirk - Analyst
William Kirk - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back to Jim Koch for closing remarks.
謝謝。問答環節已結束。我想請吉姆·科赫作最後發言。
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
C. James Koch - Chairman of the Board
Well, thank you all, and I hope you enjoy and drink a lot of beer in the remaining months of summer, and we'll talk to you after the third quarter closes.
好吧,謝謝大家,我希望你們在夏天剩下的幾個月裡玩得開心,喝很多啤酒,我們會在第三季結束後再與你們交談。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束,大家可以斷開連線了。我們感謝您的參與。