Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Boston Beer Company Third-Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded

您好，歡迎參加波士頓啤酒公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式演講後將舉行問答環節。 （操作員說明）溫馨提示，本次會議正在錄音中

It is now my pleasure to introduce you Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Thank you, Mike. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹副總法律顧問兼公司秘書 Mike Andrews。謝謝你，麥克。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome. This is Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of the Boston Beer Company. I'm pleased to kick off our 2024 third quarter earnings call. Joining the call from Boston Beer are Jim Koch, Founder and Chairman; Michael Spillane, our CEO; and Diego Reynoso, our CFO.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎光臨。我是麥克‧安德魯斯 (Mike Andrews)，波士頓啤酒公司副總法律顧問兼公司秘書。我很高興開始我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。加入波士頓啤酒公司電話會議的還有創辦人兼董事長吉姆‧科赫 (Jim Koch)；麥可‧斯皮蘭 (Michael Spillane)，我們的執行長；和我們的財務長迭戈雷諾索。

Before we discuss our business, I'll start with our disclaimer. As we state in our earnings release, some of the information we discuss and that may come up on this call reflect the Company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future. Such predictions are forward-looking statements. It's important to note that the Company's actual results could differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements.

在我們討論我們的業務之前，我將首先聲明我們的免責聲明。正如我們在財報中所述，我們討論的以及本次電話會議中可能出現的一些資訊反映了公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測。此類預測屬於前瞻性陳述。值得注意的是，公司的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。

Additional information concerning facts that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the Company's most recent 10-Q and 10-K. The Company does not undertake to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的事實的更多資訊包含在公司最新的 10-Q 和 10-K 中。本公司不承諾公開更新前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

I will now pass it over to Jim for some introductory comments.

現在我將把它交給吉姆，徵求一些介紹意見。

Thanks, Mike. I'll begin my remarks this afternoon with a few introductory comments, and then hand over to Michael, who will provide his view of the business and the actions we're taking to position the Company for improvement in 2025.

謝謝，麥克。今天下午我將首先進行一些介紹性評論，然後交給邁克爾，他將提供他對業務的看法以及我們為使公司在 2025 年取得改進而採取的行動的看法。

Michael will then turn the call over to Diego, who will focus on the financial details of our third quarter results. As well as our updated outlook for 2024. Immediately following Diego's comments, we'll open up the line for questions.

然後，麥可會將電話轉給迭戈，迭戈將專注於我們第三季業績的財務細節。以及我們對 2024 年的最新展望。

I'd like to begin my remarks with an overview of the market environment. There continues to be noise in month-to-month volume trends in the alcoholic beverage industry. We expect near-term industry volume tends to continue to move around month-to-month given the macroeconomic consumer environment. Importantly, we're seeing the pricing environment remains stable and are achieving price increases of approximately 2% and which was at the high end of our prior guidance range.

我想先概述一下市場環境。酒精飲料行業的月銷售趨勢仍然存在噪音。鑑於宏觀經濟消費環境，我們預期近期產業銷售往往會持續按月變動。重要的是，我們看到定價環境保持穩定，並實現了約 2% 的價格上漲，這處於我們先前指導範圍的高端。

From a Boston Beer perspective, we mentioned on our last call that we under-shipped demand in the second quarter as trends improved late in the quarter, and we were not able fulfill all orders. By the end of the third quarter, our wholesaler inventories normalized at approximately 5.5 weeks and shipments and depletion trends year-to-date are consistent at down 3%. We've narrowed our volume guidance for the full year to reflect three quarters of results and a range of outcomes for the fourth quarter given the near-term consumer environment.

從波士頓啤酒的角度來看，我們在上次電話會議中提到，由於本季末趨勢有所改善，我們第二季的出貨需求不足，我們無法履行所有訂單。到第三季末，我們的批發商庫存恢復正常，約 5.5 週，年初至今的出貨量和消耗趨勢一致下降 3%。考慮到近期的消費環境，我們縮小了全年的銷售指引，以反映三個季度的業績以及第四季度的一系列結果。

From a long-term perspective, we continue to believe that there is a significant opportunity in the fourth category as lines continue to blur beyond the traditional three categories of beer, wine and spirits and consumers seek newness and variety. These fourth category beverages are typically sold in a can, need to be available in the cold box and are closer to beer in terms of pricing and margin structure and production requirements.

從長遠來看，我們仍然相信第四類產品存在重大機遇，因為啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒等傳統三類產品的界限繼續模糊，消費者尋求新穎性和多樣性。這些第四類飲料通常以罐裝形式出售，需要在冷箱中提供，並且在定價、利潤結構和生產要求方面更接近啤酒。

We believe Boston Beer Company is well positioned to take advantage of this growth given our proven track record of creating new products and getting them into the hands of drinkers through both our best-in-class sales force and wholesaler relationships. We have strong core brands and a strong innovation pipeline for 2025, including Sun Cruiser and Samuel Adams American Light.

我們相信，鑑於我們在創造新產品並透過我們一流的銷售隊伍和批發商關係將其送到飲酒者手中的良好記錄，波士頓啤酒公司處於有利地位，可以利用這一增長。我們擁有強大的核心品牌和 2025 年的強大創新管道，包括 Sun Cruiser 和 Samuel Adams American Light。

Our margin initiatives continue to show strong progress, with gross margin up 190 basis points year-to-date. The systems and infrastructure we've built to support a diversified portfolio are showing results and there is significant long-term margin opportunity ahead as we continue to execute on our productivity plans, launching margin-accretive innovation and return to growth.

我們的利潤計畫持續取得強勁進展，今年迄今毛利率成長了 190 個基點。我們為支持多元化投資組合而建構的系統和基礎設施正在顯現成效，隨著我們繼續執行生產力計劃、啟動利潤增值創新和恢復成長，未來將存在巨大的長期利潤機會。

In summary, our priorities are to support our category-leading brands to improve market share, nurture the innovation pipeline in a disciplined manner and improve our execution to unlock revenue opportunities and lower costs. We're focused on responding to and taking advantage of the trends we can control and implementing operating plans to position the company well in 2025.

總而言之，我們的首要任務是支持我們的類別領導品牌提高市場份額，以嚴格的方式培養創新管道，並提高我們的執行力，以釋放收入機會並降低成本。我們專注於回應和利用我們可以控制的趨勢，並實施營運計劃，以確保公司在 2025 年佔據有利地位。

The highly cash-generative nature of our business and our strong balance sheet allows us to invest to return to long-term growth while continuing to return cash to shareholders. We've generated over $200 million in operating cash flow this year and have a cash balance of $256 million at the end of the third quarter with no debt.

我們業務的高度現金產生性質和強大的資產負債表使我們能夠進行投資以恢復長期成長，同時繼續向股東返還現金。今年我們產生了超過 2 億美元的營運現金流，第三季末的現金餘額為 2.56 億美元，沒有債務。

Based on our view of long-term growth prospects for the company and our philosophy of returning excess cash to shareholders, we've repurchased $191 million in shares year-to-date and recently expanded our share repurchase authorization by $400 million. To close, I'd like to thank our Boston Beer team, our distributors and our retailers for their continued support.

基於我們對公司長期成長前景的看法以及向股東返還多餘現金的理念，我們今年迄今已回購了 1.91 億美元的股票，並且最近將股票回購授權擴大了 4 億美元。最後，我要感謝我們的波士頓啤酒團隊、經銷商和零售商的持續支持。

And now, I'll pass the call to Michael.

現在，我將把電話轉給麥可。

Thanks, Jim, and good afternoon, everybody. As Jim just mentioned, we're managing through some headwinds with respect to consumer demand in our categories. In the third quarter, we were focused on rebuilding our inventories, in-market execution for the remainder of the summer season and continuing to refine our internal processes. The work we are doing now to improve end-to-end execution will make us better operators and ultimately lead to more sustainable long-term growth.

謝謝吉姆，大家下午好。正如吉姆剛才所提到的，我們正在克服我們類別中消費者需求方面的一些不利因素。第三季度，我們的重點是重建庫存、夏季剩餘時間的市場執行，並繼續改善我們的內部流程。我們現在正在做的改善端到端執行的工作將使我們成為更好的營運商，並最終帶來更永續的長期成長。

Our strategic priorities that I discussed on our last call remain unchanged. We'll be focused on nurturing our core brands, developing margin-accretive innovation, leveraging the capital investments we have made in our brewers and IT systems and driving efficiency in operating expenses. There is significant opportunity ahead for our company despite the current headwinds. As I've reviewed the business over the last two quarters and worked through our operating plans for next year, with the team, I see multiple opportunities.

我在上次電話會議中討論的我們的策略重點保持不變。我們將專注於培育我們的核心品牌、開發利潤成長型創新、利用我們對釀酒商和 IT 系統的資本投資以及提高營運支出效率。儘管目前面臨阻力，但我們公司仍面臨重大機會。當我回顧過去兩個季度的業務並與團隊一起制定明年的營運計劃時，我看到了很多機會。

First, we will be focused on opportunities to gain market share across the core portfolio. Taking back share will happen over time, but the opportunities are there. Second, we'll continue to adjust the portfolio in certain cases like Truly, we have had too many line extensions. Going forward, we will be more strategic as we add more styles. And third, we will use our powerful innovation engine in a disciplined fewer things better way as I discussed in our last call.

首先，我們將重點放在核心產品組合中獲得市場份額的機會。收回份額將隨著時間的推移而發生，但機會是存在的。其次，我們將在某些情況下繼續調整產品組合，例如確實，我們有太多的產品線延伸。展望未來，我們將更具策略性地添加更多款式。第三，正如我在上次電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們將以一種紀律更少、更好的方式使用我們強大的創新引擎。

And finally, we'll continue to modernize our supply chain and execute on the multiyear productivity initiatives across our three buckets: procurement savings, waste and network optimization and brewery performance. All these efforts together are designed to position the company for improvement in operational and financial performance in 2025 and to drive quality long-term revenue growth and higher profitability.

最後，我們將繼續實現供應鏈現代化，並在三個方面執行多年生產力計劃：採購節約、浪費和網路優化以及啤酒廠績效。所有這些努力旨在使公司在 2025 年改善營運和財務業績，並推動高品質的長期收入成長和更高的獲利能力。

I'll now provide some color on the brand portfolio. And beyond beer, we play in hard tea, where we have the clear number one hard tea brand into Twisted Tea. The number two player in Hard Seltzer and Truly. High-quality premium can cocktail products in the early stages of brand building with Sun Cruiser and Dogfish Head can cocktails and our partner, Hard Mountain Dew. In beer, Samuel Adams has a strong craft legacy, and we continue to focus on our seasonals, adding more on-premise taps and our new light beer innovation, Samuel Adams American Light.

我現在將為品牌組合提供一些顏色。除了啤酒之外，我們還涉足硬茶領域，其中我們擁有排名第一的硬茶品牌 Twisted Tea。 Hard Seltzer 和 Truly 中排名第二的球員。 Sun Cruiser 和 Dogfish Head 罐裝雞尾酒以及我們的合作夥伴 Hard Mountain Dew 在品牌建設的早期階段提供高品質優質罐裝雞尾酒產品。在啤酒方面，塞繆爾·亞當斯(Samuel Adams) 擁有深厚的精釀傳統，我們將繼續專注於我們的季節性啤酒，增加更多的本地啤酒和我們新的淡啤酒創新——塞繆爾·亞當斯美國淡色啤酒(Samuel Adams American Light)。

We continue to see hard tea as attractive category with category volume up 18% and dollars up 20% for the year-to-date through the third quarter in measured channels. Twisted Tea is a brand that was built over many years in a high-quality way and has strong brand equities and an 85% market share. While many competitors have entered the category, the most successful competitive brand only has low single-digit market share.

我們仍認為硬茶是具吸引力的品類，從年初至今到第三季度，在可測通路中，品類銷量成長了 18%，銷售額成長了 20%。 Twisted Tea是一個經過多年高品質打造的品牌，擁有強大的品牌資產和85%的市場份額。儘管許多競爭對手已進入該類別，但最成功的競爭品牌僅擁有較低的個位數市場份額。

Twisted Tea's growth has decelerated somewhat naturally as it must grow off a larger base and contends with the macro consumer environment. But the category remains attractive, and we see multiple areas of growth for the brand. We've increased our investments behind Twisted Tea with our Twisted Tea college football program that continues to generate excitement for the brand through the fourth quarter.

Twisted Tea 的成長自然有所放緩，因為它必須建立更大的基礎並應對宏觀消費環境。但該類別仍然具有吸引力，我們看到該品牌在多個領域都有成長。我們透過 Twisted Tea 大學橄欖球計劃增加了對 Twisted Tea 的投資，該計劃在第四季度繼續為該品牌帶來興奮。

One of the largest opportunity is in points of distribution, particularly for Twisted Tea light, which is like highly incremental, and we are launching more distinct packaging that makes it easier to find on shelf. Additionally, there is still under penetration in certain consumer demographics.

最大的機會之一是在分銷點，特別是對於 Twisted Tea light，這是高度增量的，我們正在推出更獨特的包裝，使其更容易在貨架上找到。此外，某些消費者群體的滲透率仍然較低。

Higher ABV hard tea innovation is always an area of opportunity that is in its early stages with Twisted Tea Extreme performing well in the market with high repeat rates and lots of room for distribution wins. Twisted Tea Extreme fulfills high ABV occasions that drink as previously had to exit the brand to purchase.

高酒精度硬茶創新始終是一個充滿機會的領域，目前還處於早期階段，Twisted Tea Extreme 在市場上表現良好，重複率很高，並且有很大的分銷空間。 Twisted Tea Extreme 滿足了以前必須退出該品牌才能購買的高酒精度場合的飲用需求。

Our vodka-based tea innovation Sun Cruiser, which was launched late in the summer season is performing well in bringing new consumers to our hard tea portfolio. Sun Cruiser launched first in the New England and Atlantic regions and continues to expand to additional regions. Sales per point and the early off-premise regions continue to trend positively and Sun Cruiser is also performing well in the on-premise channel.

我們的伏特加茶創新產品 Sun Cruiser 在夏末推出，在為我們的硬茶產品組合吸引新消費者方面表現良好。 Sun Cruiser 首先在新英格蘭和大西洋地區推出，並繼續擴展到其他地區。每個點和早期場外區域的銷售額持續呈現正面趨勢，Sun Cruiser 在場內通路中也表現良好。

We're encouraged by the feedback from wholesalers, retailers and drinkers and would point out that Sun Cruiser's overall performance trends are not fully reflected in third-party data at this point due to a significant presence in non-measured channels.

我們對批發商、零售商和飲酒者的回饋感到鼓舞，並指出，由於在非測量管道中存在大量存在，Sun Cruiser 的整體績效趨勢目前尚未完全反映在第三方數據中。

We expect Sun Cruiser to be an important addition to the portfolio long term, but note from a timing perspective, we are now entering the lower seasonality months. The large opportunity for distribution wins is in the shelf resets that will occur in the spring of 2025.

我們預計 Sun Cruiser 從長遠來看將成為投資組合的重要補充，但從時間角度來看，我們現在正進入季節性較低的月份。分銷獲勝的巨大機會在於 2025 年春季的貨架重置。

Turning to Hard Seltzer. We are continuing to see declines in the hard seltzer category with Hard Seltzer category declining 11% in category volume in measured channels in the third quarter and truly underperforming the category. As I mentioned on the last call, there's bifurcation with the light flavors performing ahead of bolder flavors, and we'll continue to focus the portfolio to those lighter flavors.

轉向硬蘇打水。我們繼續看到硬蘇打水類別的下滑，在第三季的測量管道中，硬蘇打水類別的銷量下降了 11%，確實表現不佳。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，清淡口味的表現優於更大膽的口味，我們將繼續將產品組合重點放在那些清淡口味上。

As an example, the wild-berry 24-ounce can has grown year-to-date in measured channels with particularly strong growth in convenience stores. We think there is an opportunity to regain share with our lighter flavors and continuing our rotator pack strategy. There is also opportunity in the higher ABV segment, which is resonating with consumers and driving in single-serve.

例如，24 盎司罐裝野生漿果今年以來在可測管道中的成長勢頭尤其強勁，其中便利商店的成長尤其強勁。我們認為，我們有機會透過我們的清淡口味重新獲得市場份額，並繼續我們的旋轉包裝策略。高酒精度細分市場也存在機會，該細分市場與消費者產生共鳴並以單杯形式行駛。

Truly Unruly, our 8% ABV offering is showing promise and is expected to be a contributor in improving the trajectory of Truly. Overall, we are not satisfied with the performance of Truly are taking steps to reposition the product portfolio and adjust our marketing strategy to improve the trajectory of the brand in 2025 and beyond.

Truly Unruly，我們的 8% ABV 產品已顯示出前景，預計將有助於改善 Truly 的發展軌跡。整體而言，我們對信利的表現並不滿意，正在採取措施重新定位產品組合併調整行銷策略，以改善該品牌在 2025 年及以後的發展軌跡。

With respect to Hard Mountain Dew, we saw depletion trends turned positive in the third quarter, although off a small volume base. We're currently selling through our wholesaler network in states where we've transitioned from Blue Cloud and are continuing to work through regulatory approval and distribution agreements in additional states.

至於硬山露，我們看到第三季的消耗趨勢轉為積極，儘管銷售基礎較小。目前，我們正在從 Blue Cloud 轉型的州透過我們的批發商網路進行銷售，並繼續在其他州透過監管批准和分銷協議開展工作。

We continue to believe there is opportunity for Hard Mountain Dew across expanded pack sizes and channels, including convenience stores, but those efforts will take time and have a more positive impact on our 2025 results.

我們仍然相信，Hard Mountain Dew 在擴大包裝尺寸和通路（包括便利商店）方面存在著機會，但這些努力需要時間，並對我們 2025 年的業績產生更積極的影響。

For our Sam Adams brand, we'll support our seasonal offerings in our award-winning nonalcoholic, just the haze while focusing on expanding the successful launch of our distinctly American Graft larger American Light. American Light is made with high-quality American ingredients and recently earned a title of Best Lighter in America in the World Beer Awards. The product is targeted to craft drinkers who want to drink light beer with quality ingredients and is enjoying a promising consumer acceptance in its early markets of New England, Florida and Texas.

對於我們的 Sam Adams 品牌，我們將在屢獲殊榮的非酒精飲料中支持我們的季節性產品，同時專注於擴大我們獨特的 American Graft 更大的 American Light 的成功推出。 American Light 採用優質美國原料製成，最近在世界啤酒獎中榮獲「美國最佳打火機」稱號。該產品面向那些想要飲用優質原料的淡啤酒的精釀啤酒愛好者，並在新英格蘭、佛羅裡達和德克薩斯等早期市場獲得了消費者的認可。

We pursued a measured launch strategy in test markets starting in independence and moving into large format and on-premise. Based on the encouraging early reads, American Light will be expanding nationally in early in 2025.

我們在測試市場中採取了審慎的發布策略，從獨立開始，逐漸轉向大型和本地部署。基於令人鼓舞的早期讀數，American Light 將於 2025 年初在全國擴張。

In summary, we're working hard on supporting our core brands as well as supporting our innovation engine to drive volume and revenue improvements in a disciplined manner. In addition to our plans to improve volumes and market share, and we're also continuing our efforts to modernize our supply chain and expand our margins.

總而言之，我們正在努力支持我們的核心品牌以及支持我們的創新引擎，以有紀律的方式推動銷售和收入的提高。除了提高供應鏈現代化並擴大利潤。

We're seeing good progress on our productivity initiatives across the three buckets of priorities that I have mentioned earlier. Procurement savings, waste and network optimization as well as brew performance. These efforts allow us to realize gross margin expansion in the third quarter despite a soft volume environment.

我們看到我之前提到的三個優先事項中的生產力計劃取得了良好進展。節省採購、浪費和網路優化以及沖泡效能。儘管銷售環境疲軟，這些努力使我們能夠在第三季實現毛利率擴張。

We expect the investments we've made in systems such as planning tools and automated customer ordering systems to enable continued progress on inventory management in 2025. Line efficiencies remain a work in progress and will take some time to achieve consistent and reliable performance, particularly in peak periods. The timing and ultimate amount of volume that we in-source will be dependent on our progress in our own breweries as well as the product and geographic mix of our sales.

我們預計，我們在規劃工具和自動化客戶訂購系統等系統上的投資將能夠在2025 年實現庫存管理的持續進步。 ，特別是在高峰期。我們內購的時間和最終數量將取決於我們自己啤酒廠的進度以及我們銷售的產品和地理組合。

In addition to gross margin, we're focused on investing in our brands. We are focused on improved execution and coordination of our brand investments and sales programs to maximize brand impact through to consumers. With respect to non-advertising selling and brand costs, we're continuing our efforts to better align internal costs with revenue.

除了毛利率之外，我們還專注於對我們的品牌進行投資。我們專注於改善品牌投資和銷售計劃的執行和協調，以最大限度地提高對消費者的品牌影響。在非廣告銷售和品牌成本方面，我們正在繼續努力更好地使內部成本與收入保持一致。

We're committed to supporting all of our brands with appropriate levels of advertising investment for both brand awareness and in-store marketing. Our investments are across the portfolio with a particular emphasis on Twisted Tea, Sun cruiser and Hard Mountain Dew.

我們致力於透過適當程度的廣告投資來支持我們所有的品牌，以提高品牌知名度和店內行銷。我們的投資涵蓋整個投資組合，特別關注 Twisted Tea、Sun Cruiser 和 Hard Mountain Dew。

To summarize, I believe there are multiple areas of opportunity ahead for Boston Beer. I'm pleased with the progress we are making to be more focused and that we have had delivered gross margin expansion despite weaker volumes. We still have work to do in becoming sharper in our execution.

總而言之，我相信波士頓啤酒面臨多個領域的機會。我對我們在更加專注方面取得的進展感到高興，儘管銷量疲軟，但我們仍實現了毛利率的擴張。我們仍然需要努力提高執行力。

We'll be spending the next few months finalizing our plans to position the company for improved performance in 2025 and return to long-term high-quality growth. I look forward to discussing our 2025 operating plans and financial guidance with you in February on our fourth quarter earnings call.

我們將在接下來的幾個月內敲定計劃，以使公司在 2025 年改善業績並恢復長期高品質成長。我期待在 2 月的第四季財報電話會議上與您討論我們的 2025 年營運計畫和財務指引。

I'll now pass the call to Diego for a detailed review of the third quarter and our updated 2024 guidance.

我現在將致電迭戈，詳細回顧第三季和我們更新的 2024 年指引。

Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone. Depletions in the third quarter decreased 3% and shipments decreased 1.9% from the prior year. Primarily due to declines in Truly Hard Seltzer that were partially offset by growth in our Twisted Tea, Sun Cruiser and Hard Mountain Dew brands. We began the quarter with an average of 3.5 weeks of distributor inventories on hand which, as we discussed in our second quarter call, was lower than our target levels.

謝謝你，麥可。大家下午好。第三季消耗量較上年同期下降 3%，出貨量下降 1.9%。主要是由於 Truly Hard Seltzer 的銷量下降，但我們的 Twisted Tea、Sun Cruiser 和 Hard Mountain Dew 品牌的成長部分抵消了下降。本季開始時，我們的經銷商庫存平均為 3.5 週，正如我們在第二季電話會議中所討論的那樣，這低於我們的目標水準。

As of September 28, 2024, distributor inventory was approximately 5.5 weeks on hand, which was slightly higher than our target levels of between four and five weeks. We expect to return to our target levels during the fourth quarter, which will be a slight headwind to our fourth quarter shipment volume.

截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日，經銷商庫存約為 5.5 週，略高於我們四到五週的目標水準。我們預計將在第四季度恢復到我們的目標水平，這將對我們第四季度的出貨量產生輕微的阻力。

Revenue for the quarter increased 0.6% due to price increases and lower returns, partially offset by lower volumes. Our third quarter gross margin of 46.3% and increased 60 basis points from the 45.7% margin realized in the prior year. Gross margin primarily benefited from price increases, procurement savings and lower returns, which more than offset higher inventory obsolescence and increased inflationary costs.

由於價格上漲和回報下降，本季營收成長了 0.6%，但部分被銷量下降所抵消。我們第三季的毛利率為 46.3%，比去年同期的 45.7% 提高了 60 個基點。毛利率主要受益於價格上漲、採購節省和較低的回報，足以抵消較高的庫存報廢和通貨膨脹成本的增加。

Excluding shortfall fees and third-party production prepayments that we have discussed in prior calls, gross margin was 47.4%. Advertising, promotional and selling expenses for the third quarter of 2024 decreased $4.6 million or 3% from the third quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower freight costs as a result of both improved efficiencies and lower volumes. Brand spend in the third quarter was consistent with prior years.

不包括我們在先前的電話會議中討論過的缺口費用和第三方生產預付款，毛利率為 47.4%。 2024 年第三季的廣告、促銷和銷售費用較 2023 年第三季減少 460 萬美元，即 3%，這主要是由於效率提高和銷售下降導致貨運成本下降。第三季的品牌支出與往年一致。

General and administrative expenses increased $1.6 million or 3.7% yearn over year, primarily due to increased professional fees. The third quarter -- in the third quarter, we recorded a $42.6 million noncash impairment charge or $2.49 per diluted share. primarily for the Dogfish Head brand that resulted from the Company's annual impairment analysis.

一般及管理費用較去年同期增加 160 萬美元，或 3.7%，主要是因為專業費用增加。第三季度－第三季度，我們記錄了 4,260 萬美元的非現金減損費用，即稀釋後每股 2.49 美元。主要針對公司年度減損分析所得的角鯊頭品牌。

The impairment determination was primarily based on the latest forecast of brand performance. which were below our earlier projections. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2024, we will be amortizing the remaining intangible Dogfish Head brand asset of $14.4 million over a 10-year life, and we do not expect any future impairments related to the Dogfish Head brand.

減損確定主要基於對品牌績效的最新預測。這低於我們先前的預測。從 2024 年第四季開始，我們將在 10 年壽命內攤銷剩餘的 1,440 萬美元角鯊頭品牌無形資產，我們預計未來不會出現與角鯊頭品牌相關的任何減損。

We reported non-GAAP EPS of $5.35 per diluted share, an increase of $0.68 or 15% compared to the third quarter of the last year. Both periods exclude noncash brand impairments. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher revenue and gross margins and lower freights.

我們公佈的非公認會計準則每股攤薄每股收益為 5.35 美元，與去年第三季相比增加了 0.68 美元，即 15%。這兩個時期均不包括非現金品牌損害。同比增長是由收入和毛利率上升以及運費下降所推動的。

Now I'll discuss our 2024 guidance. Our fiscal week depletion trends for the first 42 weeks of 2024 have decreased 2% from 2023. As Jim mentioned in his remarks, we are narrowing our 2024 volume guidance to reflect the first nine months performance and a range of outcomes for the remaining fourth quarter.

現在我將討論我們的 2024 年指導。我們2024 年前42 週的財週消耗趨勢較2023 年下降了2%。季度的一系列結果。

As you model out the remainder of the year, please keep in mind that the fourth quarter is typically our lowest absolute gross margin rate of the year. We now expect 2024 depletions and shipments to decrease low single digits versus our prior guidance of a decrease of low single digits to flat.

當您對今年剩餘時間進行建模時，請記住，第四季度通常是我們今年絕對毛利率最低的季度。我們現在預計 2024 年的消耗量和出貨量將減少到低個位數，而我們先前的指引是低個位數減少到持平。

We now estimate price increases of approximately 2%, which is at the high end of our prior guidance. Gross margin of between 44% and 45% versus prior guidance of 43% to 45%, reflecting the progress we have made on delivering productivity.

我們現在估計價格上漲約 2%，這是我們之前指導的上限。毛利率在 44% 到 45% 之間，而先前的指導值為 43% 到 45%，反映了我們在提高生產力方面取得的進展。

Contractual short sell fees and production prepayment amortization that we've discussed on previous calls will have a negative impact on full year 2024 gross margins of between 160 and 180 basis points. As these contractual terms expire, we will reassess our capacity needs and commitments with our third-party production partners.

我們在先前的電話會議中討論過的合約賣空費用和生產預付款攤銷將對 2024 年全年毛利率產生 160 至 180 個基點的負面影響。隨著這些合約條款到期，我們將重新評估我們的產能需求以及與第三方生產合作夥伴的承諾。

Our investments in advertising, promotional and selling expenses will range from a decrease of $5 million to an increase of $15 million. This does not include any changes in freight costs for the shipment of products to our distributors. Our estimated tax rate will be 30%, which is higher than our prior estimate of 28.5%. And is due to the impact of the third quarter noncash brand impairment charge, which decreases estimated full year pretax income but did not significantly change our estimated full year nondeductible expenses.

我們在廣告、促銷和銷售費用方面的投資將從減少 500 萬美元到增加 1500 萬美元不等。這不包括向我們的經銷商運送產品的運費的任何變化。我們預計稅率為30%，高於我們先前預期的28.5%。這是由於第三季非現金品牌減損費用的影響，這減少了預計的全年稅前收入，但並沒有顯著改變我們預期的全年不可扣除費用。

Our non-GAAP earnings per share guidance of $8 to $10 excludes the impact of the noncash brand impairment charge of $42.6 million or $2.49 per diluted share. This projection is highly sensitive to changes in volume projections and supply chain performance.

我們的非 GAAP 每股盈餘指引為 8 至 10 美元，不包括 4,260 萬美元或稀釋後每股 2.49 美元的非現金品牌減損費用的影響。此預測對產量預測和供應鏈績效的變化高度敏感。

In summary, the changes to our guidance reflect a somewhat softer volume environment, offset by strong gross margin performance. We've been able to maintain the midpoint of our prior EPS guidance while investing in our brands and absorbing a higher tax rate.

總而言之，我們指導意見的變化反映出銷售環境有所疲軟，但被強勁的毛利率表現所抵銷。我們能夠維持先前每股收益指引的中點，同時投資我們的品牌並吸收更高的稅率。

Turning to capital allocation. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $255.6 million and unused credit line of $150 million, which provides us with the flexibility to continue to invest in our base business, fund future growth initiatives and return cash to shareholders through our share buyback program.

轉向資本配置。本季結束時，我們的現金餘額為2.556 億美元，未使用的信貸額度為1.5 億美元，這使我們能夠靈活地繼續投資於我們的基礎業務，為未來的成長計畫提供資金，並透過我們的股票回購計畫向股東返還現金。

For the full year 2024, primarily due to the timing of spend on current projects, we expect capital expenditures of between $80 million and $95 million, a decrease from our prior estimate of between $90 million and $110 million. These investments will be directed primarily to our own breweries to build capabilities and improve efficiencies.

對於 2024 年全年，主要由於當前項目的支出時間安排，我們預計資本支出在 8000 萬美元至 9500 萬美元之間，比我們之前估計的 9000 萬美元至 1.1 億美元有所減少。這些投資將主要針對我們自己的啤酒廠，以增強能力並提高效率。

During the 39-week period ended September 28, 2024, and the period of September 30, 2024, through October 18, 2024, and we repurchased shares in the amount of $176 million and $15 million. We recently increased our share repurchase authorization to $1.6 billion which is an increase of $400 million. As of October 18, 2024, we had approximately $476 million remaining on the authorization.

在截至2024年9月28日的39週期間以及2024年9月30日至2024年10月18日期間，我們回購了價值1.76億美元和1500萬美元的股票。我們最近將股票回購授權增加至 16 億美元，增加了 4 億美元。截至 2024 年 10 月 18 日，我們的授權餘額約為 4.76 億美元。

This concludes our prepared remarks, and now we'll open the lines for questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束，現在我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可萊弗里、派珀桑德勒。

Thank you. Good evening. Just wanted to come back to how to think about 4Q. I know you've got the full year volume guidance that gives us a good -- some guardrails on how to think about it. But you have been talking about some new distribution pipeline fill for Hard Mountain Dew driving some potential upside against sell-through it sounds like the inventory build in 3Q more than makes up for that and maybe some of the other new innovation getting ready to go out in early 2025. Is that the right way to think about it? And can you just talk about some of the puts and takes besides just the current inventory level?

謝謝。晚安.只是想回到如何思考第四季。我知道你們已經得到了全年的銷售指導，這為我們提供了一些關於如何思考它的良好指導。但你一直在談論硬山露的一些新的分銷管道填充，這對銷售帶來了一些潛在的上行，聽起來第三季度的庫存增加足以彌補這一點，也許其他一些新的創新正準備推出2025年初。除了目前的庫存水準之外，您能否談談一些看跌期權和賣出期權？

Yes. I think as we've laid out before, Q4 is our smallest quarter and therefore, is very sensitive to volume moves. So we're currently on our 2025 plan right now, we'll come back and talk about it next quarter. But as we look at that, we're looking at what are the dates that we're launching in different markets, Hard Mountain Dew, what the growth of Sun Cruiser is at the beginning of the year.

是的。我認為正如我們之前所指出的，第四季度是我們最小的季度，因此對成交量變動非常敏感。因此，我們目前正在製定 2025 年計劃，我們將在下個季度回來討論它。但當我們審視這一點時，我們正在關注我們在不同市場推出的日期，《Hard Mountain Dew》，《Sun Cruiser》在年初的成長情況。

So, those would be the two branded driven pieces that might change the volume between Q4 and Q1 a little bit. And then the third one is the one you mentioned, our inventories are a little bit long, not a lot, but that can drive a handful of points up and down. So those three things are the reason why you see a little bit of a bigger -- kind of a bigger range in Q4 just because of the relative size of Q4 versus those three things.

因此，這兩個品牌驅動的產品可能會稍微改變第四季和第一季之間的銷售量。第三個就是你提到的，我們的庫存有點長，不是很多，但這可以帶動一些點的上下波動。因此，這三件事就是為什麼你會在第四季看到更大的範圍，只是因為第四季與這三件事的相對規模。

Okay. That's helpful. That makes sense. And can I just follow up on Twisted Extreme and Truly Unruly. You've got a few things that are going from a 5% to an 8% ABV with some of these extensions I think you mentioned some competitive offerings that drove some of the thinking there. But is that also just a consumer that's seeking value and wants the bang for the buck or how do you think about just where the consumer's head is and how they approach that and what the initial read is on traction?

好的。這很有幫助。這是有道理的。我可以跟進《Twisted Extreme》和《Truly Unruly》嗎？你已經有了一些從 5% 到 8% 的酒精度以及其中一些擴展的東西，我認為你提到了一些有競爭力的產品，這些產品推動了一些思考。但這是否也是一個追求價值並希望物有所值的消費者，或者您如何看待消費者的想法以及他們如何處理這個問題以及最初的解釋是什麼？

We're very pleased with the results of the product that we have in the market and the consumer is reacting in a very positive way. And so it's probably a little bit of everything, but then we see that definitely as an important part of our growth as we go forward.

我們對市場上產品的結果感到非常滿意，消費者的反應也非常正面。因此，這可能是所有事情的一部分，但我們認為這絕對是我們前進過程中成長的重要組成部分。

Okay. Thanks. I'll pass on.

好的。謝謝。我會繼續。

Rob Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

羅布·奧滕斯坦，Evercore ISI。

Great. Two questions. One, just wonder if you could give us any kind of early sense of how October looks things getting a little bit better. I understand some pricing came into the market in certain areas. Any reactions to that?

偉大的。兩個問題。第一，想知道您能否讓我們初步了解 10 月情況會如何改善。據我了解，某些地區已進入市場定價。對此有何反應？

And then second, if you kind of go into Twisted Tea in a little bit more depth, at least in the scanner data, it's slowed a bit, velocities seem to be down, and wondered what you're kind of diagnostic is for that and maybe we're not reading the data right, but that's what we're seeing. And how do you think about the momentum of the brand going into 2025?

其次，如果你更深入地了解 Twisted Tea，至少在掃描器數據中，它會變慢一點，速度似乎下降，並想知道你對此的診斷是什麼，也許我們沒有正確讀取數據，但這就是我們所看到的。您如何看待該品牌進入 2025 年的勢頭？

Perfect. So, on the first part, I think as we laid out the last 42-week number has a 2%. So, it's a little bit better than the year-to-date at the end of the quarter. That being said, just given, again, the relative seasonality in the low side of Q4, I think it's a little bit too soon to tell, but it's a little bit better if you look at the two numbers we've laid out.

完美的。因此，在第一部分中，我認為我們列出的最後 42 週的數字為 2%。因此，本季末的情況比年初至今要好一些。話雖如此，再次考慮到第四季度低端的相對季節性，我認為現在下結論還為時過早，但如果你看看我們列出的兩個數字，情況會好一點。

Yes. And on the second part of the question regarding Twisted Tea. One, we're on we're working off a much larger base this year. But secondly, it was a year that a fair amount of competition came into the space, seeing the great success that we've had, and we've built this brand over a long period of time. It's built in a very sustainable way. We feel like what's the head for us is to claw back that long tail that had kind of come in. there was a lot of trial in moving on. So, we feel confident that going into next year, we'll be on track with Twist Tea growth.

是的。關於扭曲茶問題的第二部分。第一，今年我們正在建立一個更大的基礎。但其次，這一年該領域出現了相當多的競爭，看到了我們取得的巨大成功，我們已經在很長一段時間內建立了這個品牌。它是以非常永續的方式建造的。我們覺得我們的首要任務是挽回已經出現的長尾巴。因此，我們有信心進入明年，我們將走上 Twist Tea 成長的軌道。

Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

艾瑞克‧塞羅塔，摩根士丹利。

Yes, good afternoon, everyone. Hoping, you could talk a bit about Sun Cruiser, maybe talk a bit about what your expectations are in terms of shelf space for next year? And where do you expect that space to come from in accounts that are able to sell small based and spirits based?

是的，大家下午好。希望您能談談太陽巡洋艦，也許談談您對明年貨架空間的期望？您認為能夠銷售小額基酒和烈酒的帳戶中的空間來自哪裡？

And then at the consumer level, what are you seeing in terms of interaction between Sun Cruiser and Twisted? Obviously, significantly incremental, but for the part that does overlap, what do you -- what kind of trade-offs are you seeing at the consumer level? And then a quick follow-up.

那麼在消費者層面，您對 Sun Cruiser 和 Twisted 的互動有何看法？顯然，顯著增量，但對於重疊的部分，您在消費者層面看到了什麼樣的權衡？然後快速跟進。

So, we see it as an incremental proposition to Twisted. We haven't seen any really cannibalization of that franchise with it. We're looking at both from a product standpoint, it's a higher-margin product for us, which is, as we've talked about in past calls, we're looking to introduce innovation that's margin accretive, which it is. It's part of a highly focused canned cocktail strategy.

因此，我們將其視為 Twisted 的增量提議。我們還沒有看到該特許經營權受到任何真正的蠶食。我們從產品的角度來看待這兩種產品，這對我們來說是一種利潤率更高的產品，正如我們在過去的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們希望引入能夠增加利潤的創新，事實也確實如此。這是高度集中的罐裝雞尾酒策略的一部分。

And so, we're looking at this as taking from other vodka-based canned beverages. So, as you look around the store, you can see who the dominant players there are, and we feel confident that we can grow our business at the expense of others versus ourselves.

因此，我們認為這是從其他伏特加罐裝飲料中汲取的。因此，當你環顧商店時，你可以看到誰是主導者，我們有信心以犧牲他人和我們自己為代價來發展我們的業務。

Great. And then just a quick follow-up for Diego or housekeeping item. I think you called out higher obsolescence cost, what was that related to in terms of product and brand? And what's your picture on that going forward?

偉大的。然後快速跟進迭戈或家務用品。我認為您提出了更高的過時成本，這與產品和品牌有何關係？您對未來有何看法？

Yes. So, if you look at quarter-by-quarter, we're still kind of in line to what we think. So, it's not a key driver. I think as we are moving some of the innovation to have a lower piece. It's not a branded piece. So, from a branded point of view, we're kind of where we want. Now the only specific thing in the quarter that we called out was hops obsolescence then that's very specific of us just looking at the types of beers going forward and rebalancing our hops portfolio. So that's -- it's not brand related, it's hops related.

是的。因此，如果你按季度查看，我們仍然與我們的想法一致。因此，它不是關鍵驅動因素。我認為我們正在將一些創新轉移到較低的部分。這不是一件品牌單品。因此，從品牌的角度來看，我們已經達到了我們想要的目標。現在，我們在本季提出的唯一具體問題是啤酒花過時，那麼我們只是專注於未來的啤酒類型並重新平衡我們的啤酒花組合。所以這與品牌無關，而是與啤酒花有關。

Great. Very helpful. I'll pass it on and come back in queue. Thank you.

偉大的。非常有幫助。我會把它傳遞出去然後再回來排隊。謝謝。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛。

Thank you. Hi, everyone. I had a question on Truly. You mentioned you're not satisfied overall with Truly's performance. So, I guess I'm hoping for some more color on some of your initiatives. First, you mentioned adjusting your marketing strategy. So, I'd love to hear maybe some of the changes you might be making. And then second, you mentioned success with lighter flavors. So, could you give us a sense of what percentage of Chili's mix is lighter right now? And then, I guess, finally, you also talked about possible pruning. So again, hoping maybe for a little bit more color on that? And what percentage of Truly's volume you might consider discontinuing?

謝謝。大家好。我有一個關於 Truly 的問題。您提到您對 Truly 的整體表現不滿意。所以，我想我希望你們的一些舉措能有更多的色彩。首先，您提到調整行銷策略。所以，我很想聽聽您可能會做出的一些改變。其次，您提到了清淡口味的成功。那麼，您能否讓我們了解 Chili 的混合物現在的清淡比例是多少？然後，我想，最後，您還談到了可能的修剪。再說一次，希望能有更多的色彩嗎？您可能會考慮停止購買 Truly 銷售的百分之幾？

Yes. Thanks, Bonnie. I think one, we've basically taken '24 as a year to reassort the flavor profile of what's in front of the consumer, and we're driving more lighter flavor. We're also seeing, as we've mentioned, the higher Truly Unruly has some nice momentum. We're looking to drive those as well as really focusing on the convenience store channel.

是的。謝謝，邦妮。我認為，我們基本上將“24”作為一年來重新組合消費者面前的口味，並且我們正在推動更清淡的口味。正如我們所提到的，我們也看到，更高的「真正不守規矩」有一些不錯的動力。我們希望推動這些發展，並真正專注於便利商店通路。

In terms of -- I wouldn't necessarily break down the numbers in terms of where we are. I would say we're heading in the right direction. And in terms of the marketing spend, we're elevating our spend, and we also have -- we won't announce yet. It will probably be for fourth quarter, but some kind of dynamic part that we think can help charge the business.

就我們而言，我不一定會根據我們所處的位置來細分這些數字。我想說我們正朝著正確的方向前進。在行銷支出方面，我們正在增加支出，而且我們還不會宣布。這可能會發生在第四季度，但我們認為某種動態部分可以幫助業務成長。

Okay. And then maybe a quick follow-up. If you're -- I guess, [indiscernible], if you're unable to stabilize or revive it, do you think Twisted and then possibly Sun Cruiser next year will be enough to offset and your volumes can return to growth? Is that I'm just trying to think through this if some of these efforts aren't successful on Truly?

好的。然後也許是快速跟進。如果你——我想，[音頻不清晰]，如果你無法穩定或恢復它，你認為 Twisted 和明年可能的 Sun Cruiser 足以抵消並且你的銷量可以恢復增長嗎？如果其中一些努力在 Truly 上沒有成功，我是否只是在嘗試思考這個問題？

Well, I mean our expectation is that we're going to be successful with Truly. And our expectation is for all of our businesses to grow. One of the things we've been talking about is all of our businesses reaching their potential and really driving our full portfolio. And we think there's opportunity across our entire business.

嗯，我的意思是我們的期望是我們能夠透過 Truly 取得成功。我們的期望是我們所有的業務都能成長。我們一直在談論的一件事是我們所有的業務都發揮了潛力並真正推動了我們的整個投資組合。我們認為我們的整個業務都存在機會。

Okay. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

好的。我會把它傳遞下去。謝謝。

Filipo Falorni, Citi.

菲利波·法洛尼，花旗銀行。

I wanted to ask a broader question about the beer industry. We've clearly seen some softness this year into the summer, particularly a bit of an improvement if you include the fourth category, as you guys talked about. How are you seeing the evolution for the balance of the year and into next year? You think this was like more of a temporary headwind in '24 that might lap it to '25? Or do you see any more structural headwinds that might continue into next year?

我想問一個有關啤酒行業的更廣泛的問題。我們清楚地看到今年到夏天的一些疲軟，特別是如果你包括第四類，就像你們談到的那樣，會有一點改善。您如何看待今年剩餘時間和明年的演變？你認為這更像是 24 年的暫時逆風，可能會導致 25 年結束？或者您認為更多的結構性阻力可能會持續到明年？

Yes, there are structural headwinds to the beer industry. None of them is very big. It's hard to isolate and measure any one of them, but you've got things like cannabis, Ozempic, moderation, health concerns and pricing over the last four years that has been in excess of inflation.

是的，啤酒產業存在結構性阻力。它們都不是很大。很難孤立和衡量其中任何一個，但你可以看到大麻、臭氧、節制、健康問題以及過去四年超過通貨膨脹的定價等因素。

None of them is big enough, but you put them all together and you've got a beer industry that's down 2%, maybe 2.5% whatever the number of the week happens to be, but it's between two and three, and that's about where our depletions have been for the year. I don't see any of those necessarily going away, except the pricing.

它們都不夠大，但你把它們放在一起，你會發現啤酒行業下降了2%，也許是2.5%，無論一周有多少天，但都在兩到三週之間，這就是大概的情況。除了定價之外，我認為這些都不會消失。

At this point, beer pricing looks like it's actually at least for us, and it's been below inflation even at 2%. So, we've been able to recover our cost increases and also have our price come down in real terms. I believe that the beer industry will get disproportionate volume from the fourth category.

目前來看，啤酒定價看起來至少對我們來說是實際的，而且甚至低於 2% 的通貨膨脹率。因此，我們已經能夠收回成本的增加，價格也實際上下降。我相信啤酒業將從第四類中獲得不成比例的銷售。

I think the fourth category is kind of in the wheelhouse of beer for a bunch of reasons that I talked about. So, I see that coming back. I can -- the rhythms of our volume over 2024. In the beginning of the year, the first three or four months was pretty good. And then the industry went into a slump kind of after Easter.

我認為由於我談到的一系列原因，第四類屬於啤酒的駕駛室。所以，我看到這種情況又回來了。我可以－2024 年我們的銷售節奏。然後該行業在復活節後陷入低迷。

And you look at the same syndicated data I do, it's come back over the last six weeks. These aren't huge movements, a point or two. But we are, at this point on an upswing over the last six weeks. And as Diego mentioned, our shipments year-to-date going backwards from today are a little bit higher than they were at the end of the third quarter.

你看我做的同樣的聯合數據，它是在過去六週內返回的。這些並不是巨大的變動，一、兩點。但在過去的六週裡，我們目前正處於上升階段。正如迭戈所提到的，從今天開始，我們今年迄今為止的出貨量比第三季末略高。

So almost mathematical necessity, our October numbers are coming in better. I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know whether that will continue. There are headwinds. They're not major for the beer industry, and I'm hoping that as an industry, we can pick up share of alcohol as the fourth category becomes more important. And if we can outcompete wine and spirits for that volume.

因此，幾乎是數學上的必然，我們 10 月的數據會更好。我沒有水晶球。我不知道這種情況是否會持續下去。也有逆風。它們對於啤酒行業來說並不重要，我希望作為一個行業，隨著第四類變得更加重要，我們可以提高酒精的份額。如果我們能夠在這一數量上擊敗葡萄酒和烈酒。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Bill Kirk, Ross Capital.

比爾·柯克，羅斯資本。

Hi. So, I'm trying to understand the earnings outlook a bit better. I have year-to-date adjusted EPS at $10.76 and so at the midpoint of the 8 to 10 guided range, that would imply almost negative $2 in EPS for 4Q. Looking back at the model, that's one of the lowest 4Qs I can see.

你好。因此，我試圖更了解獲利前景。我的年初至今調整後每股收益為 10.76 美元，因此在 8 至 10 指導範圍的中點，這意味著第四季度每股收益幾乎為負 2 美元。回顧這個模型，這是我能看到的最低 4Q 之一。

Is that math right? Am I missing something in the comparable or something? Or if it is right, can you help us better understand the details that would drive such a loss in 4Q?

這個數學正確嗎？我是否遺漏了可比較的內容或其他內容？或者如果這是正確的，您能否幫助我們更好地了解導致第四季度如此損失的細節？

So first of all, the reason we have a range is, again, as I mentioned before, Q4 is relatively small and therefore, very susceptible to movements -- short-term movements back and forth, right? That's why we tend not -- we don't love seeing our business in a Q-by-Q point of view because any movements in between inventory, orders, loading and products, yes or no, makes a big difference. And we're still laying out when we're going to ship out some of the innovation next year, for example, what pieces we're going to move. That's one.

首先，我們有一個範圍的原因是，正如我之前提到的，第四季度相對較小，因此非常容易受到波動的影響——短期來回波動，對嗎？這就是為什麼我們不喜歡從逐季的角度看待我們的業務，因為庫存、訂單、裝載和產品之間的任何變動，無論是或否，都會產生很大的差異。我們仍在計劃明年何時推出一些創新，例如，我們將移動哪些部分。這是一個。

The second one is, Q4 is usually when we have our shortfall fees. And therefore, that is a direct shift to the margin profile of Q4 versus the rest of the quarters. And that's something that consistently will happen because that's where we tend to fill in our factories instead of using some of our external capacity.

第二個是，第四季通常是我們收到差額費用的時候。因此，與其他季度相比，第四季度的利潤率狀況發生了直接變化。這種情況將會持續發生，因為我們傾向於填充我們的工廠，而不是使用我們的一些外部產能。

So, there's no underlying reason that changes either the trends of the brands or any specific onetime things coming in. It's more of the sensitivity to the volume, the full fees either doing the margin and just how sensitive it is to those pieces.

因此，沒有任何根本原因會改變品牌的趨勢或任何特定的一次性產品。

And on that external capacity comment, year-to-date, it shows that 68% of your needs have been in heat production. I think the full year goal was 76% in-house production. So, is there a big step-up in production in 4Q? Or is 76% or I guess, ask differently, 76% still capable?

從今年迄今的外部產能評論來看，您 68% 的需求都用於加熱。我認為全年目標是 76% 是內部生產。那麼，第四季產量是否會有大幅提升？或者說 76% 或者我猜，換個角度問，76% 還有能力？

So, two pieces. So first of all is, again -- and I think I said it last in the last call, we adjust what we want to do internally and externally, partially where the orders come. So, we might have a goal, but given our forecast, but if we have more volume, for example, in California that where we don't have our own facilities, we'll move product into the out facility. So, the goal -- missing the goal is not necessarily good or bad. It's just that we made an adjustment.

所以，兩塊。首先，我想我在上次電話會議中最後說過，我們在內部和外部調整我們想要做的事情，部分是根據訂單來的。因此，我們可能有一個目標，但根據我們的預測，但如果我們有更多的產量，例如在加州，我們沒有自己的設施，我們會將產品轉移到外部設施。所以，目標－未達到目標不一定是好或壞。只是我們做了一個調整。

The second part of the answer is yes, we have a significant piece of the volume in Q4 in our facilities. Because that's when we have kind of a lower volume, and therefore, we can do a bigger percentage of that volume. So yes, the answer, but the fact that we're off the gold doesn't necessarily mean it's a good thing. It just means that our regional mix has changed.

答案的第二部分是肯定的，我們的工廠在第四季有很大一部分產量。因為那時我們的產量較低，因此我們可以做更大比例的產量。所以是的，答案是，但我們脫離黃金的事實並不一定意味著這是一件好事。這只是意味著我們的區域結構發生了變化。

The other piece is, as we've grown international, like that is a piece that's also a little bit separate. Because it grows and we're doing it outside our facility. So that growth also kind of distorts a little bit the internal versus internal. So overall, we're very happy with our plan.

另一部分是，隨著我們的國際化，這也是一個有點獨立的部分。因為它會成長，而且我們是在我們的工廠外進行的。因此，這種成長也有點扭曲了內在與內在的關係。總的來說，我們對我們的計劃非常滿意。

There are no further questions at this time. And now, I would like to turn the floor back over to Jim Koch for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。現在，我想將發言權交還給吉姆·科赫（Jim Koch），請他發表結束語。

Thank you all for joining us this afternoon, and we look forward to telling you how the year closed out in February.

感謝大家今天下午加入我們，我們期待向您介紹今年二月的收官情況。

And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝你們，女士們先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。