Sonic Automotive Inc (SAH) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Sonic Automotive Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. This conference call is being recorded today, Wednesday, February 15, 2023.

早上好，歡迎來到 Sonic Automotive 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。本次電話會議將於今天（2023 年 2 月 15 日，星期三）進行錄製。

Presentation materials, which accompany management's discussion on the conference call can be accessed at the company's website at ir.sonicautomotive.com. At this time, I would like to refer to the safe harbor statement of the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

可在公司網站 ir.sonicautomotive.com 上訪問與管理層在電話會議上的討論相伴的演示材料。此時，我想參考 1995 年私人證券和訴訟改革法案的安全港聲明。

During this conference call, management may discuss financial projections, information or expectations about the company's products or market or otherwise make statements about the future. Such statements are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在此電話會議期間，管理層可能會討論有關公司產品或市場的財務預測、信息或預期，或以其他方式對未來發表聲明。此類陳述具有前瞻性，並受許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所作陳述存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中有詳細說明。

In addition, management may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please refer to the non-GAAP reconciliation tables in the company's current report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier today.

此外，管理層可能會討論美國證券交易委員會定義的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱公司今天早些時候向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格當前報告中的非 GAAP 調節表。

I would now like to introduce Mr. David Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Sonic Automotive. Mr. Smith, you may begin your conference.

我現在想介紹 Sonic Automotive 首席執行官 David Smith 先生。史密斯先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Sonic Automotive Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. As you said, I'm David Smith, the company's Chairman and CEO. Joining me on the call today is our President, Mr. Jeff Dyke; our CFO, Mr. Heath Byrd; our EchoPark Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Tim Keen; our Chief Digital Retail Officer, Mr. Steve Wittman, and our Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Danny Wieland.

非常感謝。大家早上好，歡迎來到 Sonic Automotive 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。正如您所說，我是公司董事長兼首席執行官大衛·史密斯。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁 Jeff Dyke 先生；我們的首席財務官 Heath Byrd 先生；我們的 EchoPark 首席運營官 Tim Keen 先生；我們的首席數字零售官 Steve Wittman 先生和我們的投資者關係副總裁 Danny Wieland 先生。

Today, Sonic reported another period of record financial results, including record fourth quarter and full year revenues. Highlights from our fourth quarter performance include all-time record quarterly revenues of $3.6 billion, up 13% year-over-year and record fourth quarter gross profit of $576 million, up 9% year-over-year.

今天，Sonic 公佈了又一個創紀錄的財務業績，包括創紀錄的第四季度和全年收入。我們第四季度業績的亮點包括創紀錄的季度收入 36 億美元，同比增長 13%，以及創紀錄的第四季度毛利潤 5.76 億美元，同比增長 9%。

Fourth quarter GAAP EPS reflects a $320 million pretax noncash impairment charge -- again, that's a noncash impairment charge, resulting in a net loss of $5.22 per share. Excluding the effects of the noncash impairment charge, and other nonrecurring items, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.61.

第四季度 GAAP 每股收益反映了 3.2 億美元的稅前非現金減值費用——同樣，這是一項非現金減值費用，導致每股淨虧損 5.22 美元。排除非現金減值費用和其他非經常性項目的影響，我們報告的調整後每股收益為 2.61 美元。

For the full year, we reported all-time record annual revenues of $14 billion up 13% year-over-year and all-time record annual gross profit of $2.3 billion, up 21% year-over-year. Full year GAAP EPS was $2.23, including the effects of the previously mentioned noncash impairment charge. Excluding onetime items, adjusted EPS was $9.61, our fourth consecutive year of all-time record annual adjusted EPS.

全年，我們的年收入創歷史新高，達到 140 億美元，同比增長 13%，年度毛利潤創歷史新高，達到 23 億美元，同比增長 21%。全年 GAAP 每股收益為 2.23 美元，包括前面提到的非現金減值費用的影響。不包括一次性項目，調整後的每股收益為 9.61 美元，這是我們連續第四年創下年度調整後每股收益的歷史新高。

I'm extremely proud of our team's performance in the fourth quarter, capping off another incredible year for Sonic Automotive. We could not have achieved these results without the continued support of our guests, teammates, manufacturers, and lending partners. Our team remains committed to delivering a world-class guest experience and executing our long-term strategic plan, and we are excited to carry this momentum into 2023.

我為我們團隊在第四季度的表現感到非常自豪，為 Sonic Automotive 又一個令人難以置信的一年畫上了句號。如果沒有客人、隊友、製造商和貸款合作夥伴的持續支持，我們不可能取得這些成果。我們的團隊將繼續致力於提供世界一流的賓客體驗並執行我們的長期戰略計劃，我們很高興能將這一勢頭延續到 2023 年。

Before looking ahead to 2023, I'd like to add some color on the fourth quarter. During the quarter, we began to see improvement in new vehicle production, which supported higher new vehicle retail sales volume at our franchise dealerships. Outperforming the industry volume change, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. New vehicle gross profit per unit declined quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year but was offset by higher volumes and incremental F&I gross profit, driving growth in overall new vehicle related gross profit despite GPU compression.

在展望 2023 年之前，我想為第四季度添加一些色彩。在本季度，我們開始看到新車生產有所改善，這支持了我們特許經銷商的新車零售銷量增加。環比和同比均優於行業銷量變化。每單位新車毛利潤環比和同比下降，但被銷量增加和 F&I 毛利潤增量所抵消，儘管 GPU 壓縮，但仍推動了新車相關毛利潤的整體增長。

Our used vehicle business similarly outperformed the change in industry volume as a result of our diversified business model despite ongoing affordability concerns for the used vehicle consumer. Used vehicle average selling prices have begun to decline, but still remain well above levels required to return to a monthly payment that is affordable for the average buyer at current interest rates.

儘管二手車消費者的負擔能力持續受到關注，但由於我們多元化的業務模式，我們的二手車業務同樣跑贏了行業銷量的變化。二手車平均售價已開始下降，但仍遠高於恢復到按當前利率普通買家可以負擔的每月付款所需的水平。

Despite a rising interest rate environment, F&I performance continues to be a strength, benefiting from higher retail unit volume and near record F&I per retail unit. Our parts and service or fixed operations business remained strong with stable margins and volume and customer pay being complemented by improvements in warranty repair transaction volume.

儘管利率環境不斷上升，但 F&I 的表現仍然是一個優勢，這得益於較高的零售單位數量和接近創紀錄的零售單位 F&I。我們的零件和服務或固定運營業務保持強勁，利潤率和數量穩定，客戶支付得到保修維修交易量增加的補充。

So far in 2023, we have seen sequential declines in new vehicle GPU and volume due in part to the seasonal nature of our business as a result of our luxury brand weighting. We believe this, coupled with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns around the effect of rising interest rates and elevated inflation on the average consumer could drive volatility in consumer demand and vehicle margins through at least the first half of 2023.

到 2023 年為止，我們已經看到新車 GPU 和銷量的連續下降，部分原因是我們業務的季節性是我們豪華品牌權重的結果。我們認為，這一點，再加上宏觀經濟的持續不確定性，以及對利率上升和通脹上升對普通消費者影響的擔憂，可能會至少在 2023 年上半年推動消費者需求和汽車利潤率的波動。

However, we believe that our diversified automotive retail model positions us favorably to adapt our business to changes in market conditions as we progress through 2023. As vehicle inventory supply demand began to rebalance and new and used vehicle pricing begins to move towards a new normal level, we believe any headwinds we may face in the franchise business should be a tailwind to EchoPark profitability and revenue growth, minimizing the earnings downside to the consolidated results.

然而，我們相信，隨著我們到 2023 年，我們多元化的汽車零售模式使我們有利於使我們的業務適應市場條件的變化。隨著汽車庫存供應需求開始重新平衡，新車和二手車定價開始走向新的常態水平，我們認為我們在特許經營業務中可能面臨的任何逆風都應該是 EchoPark 盈利能力和收入增長的順風，最大限度地減少綜合業績的盈利下滑。

Coupled with our strong balance sheet and commitment to returning capital to stockholders, we believe we are well positioned to continue to generate returns well above pre-pandemic levels.

加上我們強大的資產負債表和向股東返還資本的承諾，我們相信我們有能力繼續產生遠高於大流行前水平的回報。

Turning now to our franchise dealership segment for the fourth quarter. Total franchise revenues were an all-time quarterly record of $3 billion, up 14% from the prior year period. Adjusted segment income was $160 million, down 3% year-over-year due to higher interest rates and segment adjusted EBITDA was $213 million which was up 4% from the prior year. On a same-store basis, fourth quarter franchise dealership revenues were up 12% from the prior year while gross profit was up 3%.

現在轉向我們第四季度的特許經銷商部門。特許經營總收入創下 30 億美元的季度歷史新高，比去年同期增長 14%。由於利率上升，調整後的分部收入為 1.6 億美元，同比下降 3%，分部調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.13 億美元，比上年增長 4%。在同店基礎上，第四季度特許經銷商收入比上年同期增長 12%，而毛利潤增長 3%。

New vehicle gross profit was flat with a 5% increase in retail unit volume, offset by a 6% decrease in new retail GPU to $6,301 per unit. Used vehicle gross profit was down 29%, driven by a 33% decrease in used retail GPU to $1,405 per unit, offset partially by a 6% increase in retail unit volume. Parts and service gross profit increased by 12%, with same-store customer pay gross profit up 14% and same-store warranty gross profit up 15%. Same-store F&I gross profit increased 11% on higher retail unit sales volume and fourth quarter record reported franchise dealership segment F&I gross profit per retail unit of $2,421, up 3% from the prior year.

新車毛利持平，零售單位銷量增長 5%，被新零售 GPU 下降 6% 至每單位 6,301 美元所抵消。二手車毛利下降 29%，這是由於二手零售 GPU 下降 33% 至每輛 1,405 美元，部分被零售量增長 6% 所抵消。零件和服務毛利增長 12%，同店客戶支付毛利增長 14%，同店保修毛利增長 15%。同店 F&I 毛利潤增長 11%，原因是零售單位銷量增加，第四季度報告的特許經銷商部門 F&I 毛利潤為每零售單位 2,421 美元，比去年同期增長 3%。

As of December 31st, our franchise dealership segment had approximately 24 days' supply of new vehicle inventory, up from 18 days' supply at the end of the third quarter, but well below the typical pre-pandemic December level of 55 to 60 days' supply. As you are aware, this days' supply figure includes in-transit inventory. Our franchise dealership segment had approximately 26 days' supply of used vehicle inventory down 5 days from the third quarter and in line with our optimal target level heading into the first quarter.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的特許經銷商部門的新車庫存供應量約為 24 天，高於第三季度末的 18 天，但遠低於大流行前 12 月 55 至 60 天的典型水平供應。如您所知，今天的供應數據包括在途庫存。我們的特許經銷商部門的二手車庫存供應量比第三季度減少了 5 天，約為 26 天，符合我們進入第一季度的最佳目標水平。

Given ongoing new vehicle inventory constraints, recent declines in wholesale market pricing, and our current outlook, we continue to be disciplined in managing our used vehicle inventory, volume and pricing in order to optimize gross profit levels as we go through 2023.

鑑於持續的新車庫存限制、近期批發市場定價的下降以及我們目前的展望，我們將繼續嚴格管理二手車庫存、數量和定價，以在 2023 年優化毛利潤水平。

Now let's turn to EchoPark results. We reported record fourth quarter revenues of $589 million for EchoPark, up 2% from the prior year and gross profit of $41 million flat year-over-year. EchoPark retail sales volume for the quarter was 17,435 units, up 14% from the third quarter and 11% year-over-year. EchoPark average used vehicle selling price decreased 12% from the quarter -- from the third quarter, but at $29,500 per unit still remains well above target affordability levels.

現在讓我們來看看 EchoPark 結果。我們報告 EchoPark 第四季度的收入達到創紀錄的 5.89 億美元，比去年同期增長 2%，毛利潤為 4100 萬美元，同比持平。本季度 EchoPark 零售量為 17,435 套，比第三季度增長 14%，同比增長 11%。 EchoPark 二手車平均售價較第三季度下降 12%，但每輛 29,500 美元仍遠高於目標承受能力水平。

We continue to focus on optimizing our inventory sourcing mix and expand our inventory affordability by including 5-plus-year-old vehicles in EchoPark inventory. For the fourth quarter, 5-plus-year-old vehicles represented 19% of EchoPark retail used vehicle unit sales volume, which was flat from the third quarter of 2022, and our nonauction sourcing mix was 28% of sales in the fourth quarter compared to 32% in the third quarter.

我們繼續專注於優化我們的庫存採購組合，並通過在 EchoPark 庫存中包括 5 年以上的車齡來擴大我們的庫存承受能力。第四季度，5 年以上車齡的車輛佔 EchoPark 零售二手車單位銷量的 19%，與 2022 年第三季度持平，我們的非拍賣採購組合佔第四季度銷售額的 28%第三季度增至 32%。

For the fourth quarter, we reported EchoPark segment loss of $33.3 million compared to $31 million in the third quarter and adjusted segment loss of $20.3 million in the prior year. EchoPark reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $25.4 million in the fourth quarter compared to a loss of $23.2 million in the third quarter and a loss of $14.6 million in the year ago period.

第四季度，我們報告 EchoPark 分部虧損 3330 萬美元，而第三季度為 3100 萬美元，去年調整後分部虧損為 2030 萬美元。 EchoPark 報告第四季度調整後 EBITDA 虧損 2540 萬美元，而第三季度虧損 2320 萬美元，去年同期虧損 1460 萬美元。

This sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA losses reflects a steeper-than-anticipated decline in used vehicle pricing during the fourth quarter which resulted in a $533 per unit decrease in front-end used vehicle GPU compared to the third quarter.

調整後 EBITDA 損失的連續增加反映了第四季度二手車價格下降幅度超過預期，導致前端二手車 GPU 與第三季度相比每單位減少 533 美元。

At the end of December, our EchoPark segment had approximately 40 days' supply of used vehicle inventory, which was down from 57 days' supply at the end of the third quarter. We believe maintaining a 5-day supply of used inventory is critical as we proceed through 2023 with the expectation for further declines in used vehicle pricing in the coming months, benefiting overall affordability and consumer demand but potentially pressuring GPUs during the transition period.

截至 12 月底，我們的 EchoPark 部門的二手車庫存供應量約為 40 天，低於第三季度末的 57 天供應量。我們認為，隨著我們進入 2023 年，維持 5 天的二手庫存供應至關重要，預計未來幾個月二手車價格將進一步下降，這有利於整體負擔能力和消費者需求，但在過渡期間可能會給 GPU 帶來壓力。

As discussed on our third quarter call, we are continuing to take a strategic, measured approach to our EchoPark expansion plans as we balance our commitment to long-term growth with our current priority to improve EchoPark profitability and maintain a strong overall liquidity position in light of an uncertain macroeconomic outlook. In the interim, we believe that the continued evolution of our EchoPark e-commerce platform will allow us to expand EchoPark brand reach without investing the capital to open additional store locations.

正如我們在第三季度電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們將繼續對我們的 EchoPark 擴張計劃採取戰略性、慎重的方法，因為我們會在我們對長期增長的承諾與我們當前優先考慮的提高 EchoPark 盈利能力和保持強勁的整體流動性頭寸之間取得平衡不確定的宏觀經濟前景。在此期間，我們相信 EchoPark 電子商務平台的持續發展將使我們能夠擴大 EchoPark 品牌的影響力，而無需投資資金開設更多門店。

For the fourth quarter, omnichannel sales through our new e-commerce platform accounted for 38% of EchoPark's retail unit sales volume compared to 31% in the third quarter. Furthermore, 9% of EchoPark volume during the quarter was sold end-to-end online, up from 7% in the third quarter as guests continue to utilize our enhanced e-commerce purchase experience with out-of-market buyers representing nearly 50% of our e-commerce sales.

第四季度，通過我們新電子商務平台的全渠道銷售額佔 EchoPark 零售單位銷售額的 38%，而第三季度為 31%。此外，本季度 9% 的 EchoPark 銷量是通過端到端在線銷售的，高於第三季度的 7%，因為客人繼續利用我們增強的電子商務購買體驗，場外買家佔近 50%我們的電子商務銷售。

We continue to believe that our omnichannel e-commerce platform, combined with measured expansion of our physical footprint over the next 2 to 3 years, will allow EchoPark to reach 90% of the U.S. population by 2025, supporting our long-term goals for this business.

我們仍然相信，我們的全渠道電子商務平台，加上我們在未來 2 到 3 年內實體足蹟的有計劃擴張，將使 EchoPark 到 2025 年覆蓋美國 90% 的人口，支持我們的長期目標商業。

We continue to adapt the EchoPark strategy based on current used vehicle market conditions and remain confident in this segment's long-term growth prospects as the used vehicle market continues to normalize. We are seeing the initial benefits of expanding our inventory offering to include 5-plus-year-old vehicles, and shift our inventory sourcing away from wholesale auctions and expect adjusted EBITDA losses to improve throughout 2023, now targeting breakeven adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2024.

我們繼續根據當前二手車市場狀況調整 EchoPark 戰略，並隨著二手車市場繼續正常化，對該細分市場的長期增長前景充滿信心。我們看到了擴大我們的庫存供應以包括 5 年以上車齡的車輛的初步好處，並將我們的庫存採購從批發拍賣中轉移，並預計調整後的 EBITDA 損失將在整個 2023 年改善，現在的目標是第一季度實現盈虧平衡調整後的 EBITDA 2024 年。

As we gain further visibility on our future used vehicle market conditions and the effects of strategic adjustments we've made at EchoPark, we will provide an updated EchoPark economic model and long-term guidance.

隨著我們對未來二手車市場狀況以及我們在 EchoPark 所做的戰略調整的影響有了進一步了解，我們將提供更新的 EchoPark 經濟模型和長期指導。

As we announced earlier this morning, we are very excited about our newly created Powersports operating segment, which further diversifies Sonic's retail portfolio. We are very optimistic about the growth opportunity in this space and we'd like to welcome the teams from Black Hills Harley-Davidson and Sturgis, South Dakota, Team Mancuso Powersports in Houston, Texas; and Horny Toad Harley-Davidson in Temple, Texas to the Sonic Automotive family.

正如我們今天早上早些時候宣布的那樣，我們對新成立的 Powersports 運營部門感到非常興奮，這進一步豐富了 Sonic 的零售產品組合。我們對這個領域的增長機會非常樂觀，我們歡迎來自南達科他州 Black Hills Harley-Davidson 和 Sturgis 的車隊，德克薩斯州休斯頓的 Mancuso Powersports 車隊；和德克薩斯州坦普爾的 Horny Toad Harley-Davidson 加入 Sonic Automotive 家族。

In partnership with this group of historic Powersports brands, we believe we can realize incremental growth opportunities and expand our reach in this adjacent retail sector worth an estimated $34 billion in the U.S. with significant opportunity for consolidation. In 2023, our Powersports segment is expected to add approximately $200 million in annual revenues and adjusted EBITDA margins between 8% and 10%.

通過與這群具有歷史意義的 Powersports 品牌合作，我們相信我們可以實現增量增長機會，並擴大我們在這個在美國價值約 340 億美元的相鄰零售行業的影響力，並有重要的整合機會。到 2023 年，我們的 Powersports 部門預計將增加約 2 億美元的年收入，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 8% 至 10% 之間。

Now turning to our balance sheet and capital allocation. We ended the fourth quarter with $805 million in available liquidity, including $501 million in cash and floor plan deposits on hand. As an update on our share repurchase activity, since October 1, 2022, we repurchased approximately 700,000 shares of the company's stock for approximately $35.8 million or an average of $48.25 per share.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表和資本配置。我們在第四季度結束時擁有 8.05 億美元的可用流動資金，其中包括 5.01 億美元的現金和手頭的平面圖存款。作為我們股票回購活動的最新消息，自 2022 年 10 月 1 日起，我們以約 3580 萬美元或平均每股 48.25 美元的價格回購了約 700,000 股公司股票。

In total, during 2022, we repurchased 5.6 million shares, representing 14% of shares outstanding as of the end of 2021 for approximately $262 million or an average of $47.8 per share. As of today, we have a total of $455 million in remaining share repurchase authorization, representing approximately 20% or so of Sonic's current market cap.

在 2022 年期間，我們總共回購了 560 萬股股票，佔截至 2021 年底已發行股票的 14%，價格約為 2.62 億美元或平均每股 47.8 美元。截至今天，我們總共擁有 4.55 億美元的剩餘股票回購授權，約佔 Sonic 當前市值的 20% 左右。

Additionally, I'm pleased to report today that our Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share payable on April 14, 2023, to all stockholders of record on March 15, 2023.

此外，我今天很高興地報告，我們的董事會批准於 2023 年 4 月 14 日向 2023 年 3 月 15 日在冊的所有股東派發每股 0.28 美元的季度現金股息。

In closing, our team is prepared to continue to execute at a high level in 2023 while remaining adaptable to changes in the automotive retail environment and macroeconomic backdrop. Further, we continue to operate our business with a long-term view and remain committed to a disciplined return-based balanced capital allocation strategy to maximize long-term stockholder returns.

最後，我們的團隊準備在 2023 年繼續保持高水平執行，同時保持適應汽車零售環境和宏觀經濟背景的變化。此外，我們繼續以長遠眼光經營我們的業務，並繼續致力於嚴格的基於回報的平衡資本配置戰略，以最大限度地提高長期股東回報。

This concludes our opening remarks, and we look forward to answering any questions you may have. Thank you.

我們的開場白到此結束，我們期待著回答您可能提出的任何問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Maybe if I could start with a sort of a quick broad question here. What are your planning assumptions generally for the SAAR for 2023, where you think GPUs will go, and what kind of SG&A leverage that you may have in 2023 roughly?

也許我可以從這裡的一個快速廣泛的問題開始。您對 2023 年 SAAR 的總體規劃假設是什麼，您認為 GPU 將走向何方，以及您在 2023 年可能擁有什麼樣的 SG&A 槓桿？

John, it's Jeff Dyke. Probably a 10% increase over this year, somewhere between 14.5% and 15.1%, 15.2%, 15.3% is what we're projecting in our numbers. Margins is the big -- is going to be the big question. Certainly, they're not going to stay where we saw them north of $6,300 in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, we're seeing that number in the high 5s. We expect that to probably continue in the first quarter. But as we go through the year, that number could dip down into the high 4s, $4,800, somewhere in that ballpark. But at the same time, new car volume will increase.

約翰，我是傑夫·戴克。可能比今年增長 10%，介於 14.5% 和 15.1%、15.2%、15.3% 之間，這是我們在數字中預測的。利潤率很大——將成為一個大問題。當然，它們不會停留在我們在第四季度看到的 6,300 美元以上的位置。在第一季度，我們看到這個數字處於高 5 位。我們預計這種情況可能會在第一季度繼續。但隨著這一年的過去，這個數字可能會下降到 4,800 美元的高點，在那個球場的某個地方。但與此同時，新車銷量也會增加。

So we're projecting that we'll have higher new car volume, lower front-end margin, good sustained F&I profitability. I think our F&I targets for the year are about $30, $25 to $50 somewhere in that ballpark off of where we ran last year, but should be a really healthy new car year from our perspective. The mix is just going to change, more volume, less running gross and we expect that to sustain through the rest of the year.

因此，我們預計我們將擁有更高的新車銷量、更低的前端利潤率、良好的持續 F&I 盈利能力。我認為我們今年的 F&I 目標大約是 30 美元、25 美元到 50 美元，與我們去年跑的地方差不多，但從我們的角度來看，這應該是一個非常健康的新車年。這種組合將發生變化，銷量增加，毛收入減少，我們預計這種情況將持續到今年餘下時間。

You want to comment on SG&A?

您想對 SG&A 發表評論嗎？

Yes, sure. I think if you look at just the franchise business, I think we'll run in the mid-60s from an SG&A perspective. Overall, I expect it to be between 65 and 70, still in the upper 60s as an overall company. So that's where -- we've got a couple of additional investments this year. We'll be talking about branding of EchoPark going forward in certain markets, which we've discussed previously and some investments that we're doing and some technology innovation for the future. So that's driving it up a little bit, but those are our forecast for now.

是的，當然。我認為如果你只看特許經營業務，我認為從 SG&A 的角度來看，我們將在 60 年代中期運行。總的來說，我預計它會在 65 到 70 之間，作為一家整體公司仍處於 60 歲以上。所以這就是 - 我們今年有一些額外的投資。我們將討論 EchoPark 在某些市場上的品牌推廣，我們之前已經討論過，我們正在進行的一些投資以及未來的一些技術創新。所以這有點推動它，但這些是我們目前的預測。

That's incredibly helpful. Just a second question on the Powersports business. I mean, it seems like you're walking into this, not running into it. It's an interesting sort of adjacency. Just curious where you think that ultimately goes in size and scale inside the company because it sounds interesting? It sounds pretty profitable and relatively fragmented?

這非常有幫助。關於 Powersports 業務的第二個問題。我的意思是，看起來你是在走進這個，而不是碰到它。這是一種有趣的鄰接關係。只是好奇你認為最終在公司內部的規模和規模會在哪裡，因為這聽起來很有趣？聽起來很賺錢而且相對分散？

It's really fragmented. This is Jeff again. I mean, look, we're buying 2x to 5x, which is kind of in and around where we're -- where we're valued. You buy a franchise dealership 6x to 10x. We've gone in our first purchase at Horny Toad Harley-Davidson. We put in some technologies, some pay plans, did a few changes, and they're now setting all-time record volumes and profits, which is great for us. We think we can do that in the rest of the stores that we have.

真的很碎片化。這又是傑夫。我的意思是，看，我們正在購買 2 倍到 5 倍的股票，這是在我們所在的地方和周圍——我們被重視的地方。您以 6 到 10 倍的價格購買了特許經銷權。我們在 Horny Toad Harley-Davidson 進行了第一次購買。我們引入了一些技術，一些薪酬計劃，做了一些改變，他們現在創造了歷史記錄的銷量和利潤，這對我們來說非常好。我們認為我們可以在我們擁有的其他商店中做到這一點。

But we're going to spend the next 12 to 18 months, as you said, walking here. We're going to develop playbooks, processes, technologies. Their technology is far behind what we see in automotive retail. So we think we can help there -- just super, super people, very talented, very bright, as we found in all the acquisitions that we've made. There could be a tuck-in here or there over the next 12 to 18 months. But overall, just the diversity of our portfolio, I think this is a great fit for us. It's adjacent to what we do. And I think we think it's just a really smart move. But again, we'll walk into that.

但是，正如您所說，我們將在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內步行到這裡。我們將開發劇本、流程和技術。他們的技術遠遠落後於我們在汽車零售業看到的技術。所以我們認為我們可以在那裡提供幫助——只有超級、超級的人，非常有才華，非常聰明，正如我們在我們所做的所有收購中發現的那樣。在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡，這里或那裡可能會有所調整。但總的來說，就我們投資組合的多樣性而言，我認為這非常適合我們。它與我們所做的相鄰。而且我認為我們認為這只是一個非常聰明的舉動。但是，我們將再次討論。

And if you look at the diversification and what's going to happen with EchoPark this year, EchoPark is going to get better and better from an EBITDA perspective throughout the year as the franchise business becomes a little more challenged. And as we walk into -- or run into '24 here with EchoPark, we should be EBITDA profitable by the first quarter. So if everything continues to happen, the way it's happening what we're projecting to happen from a depreciation perspective, on preowned cars.

如果你看看 EchoPark 的多元化以及今年會發生什麼，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，EchoPark 將在全年變得越來越好，因為特許經營業務變得更具挑戰性。當我們走進——或與 EchoPark 一起進入 24 世紀時，我們應該在第一季度實現 EBITDA 盈利。因此，如果一切繼續發生，那麼從折舊的角度來看，它的發生方式就是我們預計在二手車上發生的事情。

So we like the idea. We think it's a really good fit, great valuations, but we'll play it by here and see how things go over the next 12 to 18 months.

所以我們喜歡這個主意。我們認為這真的很合適，估值很高，但我們會在這裡玩，看看未來 12 到 18 個月的情況。

And maybe I'll just sneak one last one on used vehicle sourcing. I mean I'm just curious, as you see this year progress, what is your expectation for used vehicle sourcing at the franchise side as well as the EchoPark side? I mean how reliant would be on auctions versus self-sourcing?

也許我會偷偷看最後一篇關於二手車採購的文章。我的意思是我只是好奇，正如您看到今年的進展，您對特許經營方和 EchoPark 方的二手車採購有何期望？我的意思是對拍賣與自採購的依賴程度如何？

John, this is David Smith. I just wanted to finish up on the Powersports. Our team has been very involved, including a big group of us going to Sturgis and seeing what a phenomenal experience that is. It's important to remember that we are -- the acquisitions we made are very, very high quality. We believe that the Sturgis one being a historic acquisition for the Powersports industry.

約翰，這是大衛·史密斯。我只想完成 Powersports。我們的團隊一直非常投入，包括我們中的一大群人前往斯特吉斯，看看那是多麼非凡的經歷。重要的是要記住我們是——我們進行的收購質量非常非常高。我們相信 Sturgis 是 Powersports 行業的歷史性收購。

And so the opportunity is -- they've got 0.5 million or so people go to Sturgis. It's a phenomenon, very amazing profitability, but with huge upside as well that we all saw when we looked at that and with Mancuso and with Horny Toad and Harley-Davidson. So the ones that we've seen have -- we're each and every day, we've had them, we look at the numbers and the opportunity when you talked about what is it. I mean, it's really -- I mean we see new opportunities coming along every week.

所以機會是——他們有 50 萬左右的人去斯特吉斯。這是一個現象，非常驚人的盈利能力，但也有巨大的上升空間，當我們看到曼庫索、角蟾和哈雷戴維森時，我們都看到了這一點。所以我們看到的那些 - 我們每天都有，我們有他們，當你談論它是什麼時，我們會查看數字和機會。我的意思是，這真的——我的意思是我們每週都會看到新的機會出現。

Yes. There's no shortage of opportunities to buy stores. But again, this is new for us. We want to take our time, do this the right way. But it is -- it's nice revenue but great profitability, and we'll see how it goes. Just we're excited about it.

是的。購買商店的機會並不缺乏。但同樣，這對我們來說是新的。我們想慢慢來，以正確的方式做這件事。但它是 - 它的收入不錯，但盈利能力很強，我們會看到它的進展情況。只是我們對此感到興奮。

We're going to be disciplined about where we go from here with it. So -- and then on to your earlier question about...

我們將對我們從這裡去的地方進行紀律處分。所以 - 然後是你之前關於......的問題

Yes, new sourcing mix. Look, we're buying more and more cars off the street. I do think as retail prices drop from a pre-owned perspective, there's going to be more availability of vehicles at the auction. It gets us back into our EchoPark rhythm a bit. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the percentages are a little higher now, drop into the 15% to 20% range.

是的，新的採購組合。看，我們正在街上購買越來越多的汽車。我確實認為，隨著從二手車的角度來看零售價格下降，拍賣會上將有更多的車輛可供使用。它讓我們稍微回到了 EchoPark 的節奏。所以現在看到一些百分比稍微高一點，下降到 15% 到 20% 的範圍內，我不會感到驚訝。

In terms of non -- in terms of sourcing cars outside of the auctions. So we'll see how that goes through the year. But certainly, as prices drop, more cars are going to be available in the 1- to 5-year-old category, and that's going to play right into our hands. This is what we've been predicting. We have predicted it on the third quarter call. The slope of the drop in depreciation was faster than we thought would happen. That's flattened out now, and we think that will flatten out for a couple of months. But as we roll into April and May, that depreciation trend is going to start again.

在非拍賣方面採購汽車方面。因此，我們將看看這一年的情況。但可以肯定的是，隨著價格下降，將有更多 1 至 5 年車齡的汽車可供選擇，而這將恰好落在我們手中。這是我們一直在預測的。我們已經在第三季度電話會議上預測到了。貶值下降的速度比我們想像的要快。現在已經趨於平緩，我們認為這將在幾個月內趨於平緩。但隨著我們進入 4 月和 5 月，這種貶值趨勢將再次開始。

And we think we'll see sub-25,000 prices as we get towards the fourth quarter. When that happens, it's opened the door for EchoPark. That's our diversification model and it's just going to open the door for us to get back to where we were from pre-pandemic levels in terms of profitability. The volume is coming.

我們認為，隨著第四季度的臨近，我們將看到低於 25,000 的價格。當這種情況發生時，它就為 EchoPark 打開了大門。這就是我們的多元化模式，它只會為我們打開大門，讓我們在盈利能力方面回到大流行前的水平。量來了。

We had a nice fourth quarter with EchoPark and growth. January was up 30% in volume. February is tracking the same. February's margins are getting a little bit better, which we would expect with flattening out of the market, but the prices are still too high. The gap is not big enough between new and used car pricing yet, but it's getting there. And as that happens, all those things play right into our hands. And as we've been projecting, EchoPark will come rolling back from an EBIT perspective.

我們在 EchoPark 和增長方面度過了一個不錯的第四季度。 1 月份的銷量增長了 30%。 2 月也是如此。 2 月份的利潤率略有好轉，我們預計隨著市場趨於平緩，但價格仍然過高。新車和二手車定價之間的差距還不夠大，但已經接近了。當這種情況發生時，所有這些事情都會落入我們的手中。正如我們一直在預測的那樣，EchoPark 將從息稅前利潤的角度回滾。

Jeff, I'm sorry, in the self-sourcing also -- thank you for that in the franchise business. I mean, I mean as far as the used business and franchise dealers?

傑夫，我很抱歉，在自採購方面也是如此 - 感謝您在特許經營業務中的表現。我的意思是，就二手企業和特許經銷商而言？

We are -- we're buying a lot more cars off the street than we ever have right now. But we are starting to buy some more cars at auction. Let's just say in the third and fourth quarter, that number was running 500 cars a month. It's probably running in the 1,200 to 1,500 cars a month now. And that will probably hold steady through the rest of the year. We are sourcing a lot more cars off the street and that's helping our margins and where we are from franchise.

我們是 - 我們在街上購買的汽車比我們現在擁有的要多得多。但是我們開始在拍賣會上購買更多的汽車。假設在第三和第四季度，這個數字是每月運行 500 輛汽車。它現在可能每月運行 1,200 到 1,500 輛汽車。在今年餘下的時間裡，這可能會保持穩定。我們正在從街上採購更多的汽車，這有助於我們的利潤和我們從特許經營中獲得的收益。

And we're in such a low day supply that if any tweaks in the marketplace, we can outrun real quickly. I think we've got a 26-day supply there. Our EchoPark supply is actually a 30-day supply. When you add Northwest Motorsport from the RFJ acquisition, that puts us up to 40. So both our day supplies at both EchoPark and the franchise stores are in impeccable shape and we'll keep it that way as we move through 2023.

而且我們的日供應量如此之低，以至於如果市場有任何調整，我們可以迅速超越。我想我們那裡有 26 天的供應量。我們的 EchoPark 供應量實際上是 30 天的供應量。如果加上收購 RFJ 的 Northwest Motorsport，我們的人數將達到 40 人。因此，我們在 EchoPark 和特許經營店的日常用品都處於無可挑剔的狀態，我們將在 2023 年保持這種狀態。

And one more please. (inaudible) will actually help that as well. We don't expect that to be very large in the beginning of the year. But as that increases, that's going to help us sourcing at the franchise as well.

還有一個請。 （聽不清）實際上也會有所幫助。我們預計今年年初的規模不會很大。但隨著數量的增加，這也將幫助我們在特許經營權方面進行採購。

Our next questions come from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Daniel Imbro 與 Stephens 的對話。

I just want to start following up on that prior answer. I think you said January demand if I heard you right, was up 30% at EchoPark. I'm curious what you think -- is it just that prices have fallen enough to spur demand? Is it early tax refund season? What's driving that notable pickup? And do you think this is a head fake? Or have you seen enough data to say maybe we've seen a bottoming from a used car demand standpoint at EchoPark?

我只想開始跟進之前的答案。我想你說過，如果我沒聽錯的話，EchoPark 的 1 月份需求增長了 30%。我很好奇您的想法 - 僅僅是價格下跌足以刺激需求嗎？退稅季提前了嗎？是什麼推動了那輛引人注目的皮卡？你認為這是假的嗎？或者您是否看到了足夠的數據來說明，從 EchoPark 的二手車需求角度來看，我們可能已經觸底？

And Jeff answered this a minute ago, so I'll jump in on this one, is that we -- because I think it's really fantastic. If you were in some of our internal meetings, it's played out exactly how we thought other than some of the -- what became a historic price drop in used vehicles. Other than the speed at which that happened, it's played out exactly how our EchoPark team thought it would as far as the values of used vehicles.

傑夫一分鐘前回答了這個問題，所以我會加入這個問題，因為我認為這真的很棒。如果你參加了我們的一些內部會議，那麼它就完全按照我們的想法進行了——除了一些——什麼成為二手車的歷史性價格下跌。除了發生這種情況的速度之外，就二手車的價值而言，它完全符合我們 EchoPark 團隊的預期。

Yes, 100%. Don't think it's a head fake. It's flattened out now in the first quarter. 100% is the average retail selling price dropping. That's the difference.

是的，100%。別以為是假頭。現在在第一季度已經趨於平緩。 100% 是平均零售價下降。這就是區別。

It's all about the payment.

一切都與付款有關。

We've gone from $31,500 down EchoPark non-Northwest Motorsports somewhere in the $27,000 range and that will continue to drop. It's going to flatten out until the end of March, maybe the end of April, but no more than that, and then it will start dropping again. And as that continues, you're going to see this kind of growth rate. It's what we expect.

我們已經從 EchoPark 非 Northwest Motorsports 的 31,500 美元降到了 27,000 美元的範圍內，而且還會繼續下降。它會在三月底之前趨於平緩，也許是四月底，但僅此而已，然後它會再次開始下降。隨著這種情況的繼續，你會看到這種增長率。這是我們所期望的。

We sold 5,700 -- 5,600 cars in January. We'll do a little better than that in February. But we're projecting 9,000 and 10,000 cars per month by the end of the year and that puts us in the positive range from an EBIT perspective or at least breaking even there and getting positive in the fourth quarter, so -- or in the first quarter of '24.

我們在 1 月份售出了 5,700 - 5,600 輛汽車。我們會比 2 月份做得更好。但我們計劃到今年年底每月生產 9,000 輛和 10,000 輛汽車，從息稅前利潤的角度來看，這使我們處於積極的範圍內，或者至少在第四季度實現收支平衡並取得積極進展，所以 - 或者在第一季度24 年四分之一。

So we're well on our way as long as this trend continues, and I don't think it's a head fake. Look, new car inventory is coming back, the supplies are increasing. Domestic supplies are increasing. We're going to see that across the board. And as that happens, you just can't help but have a drop in used vehicle valuations. It's going to happen. We've been saying it's going to happen.

因此，只要這種趨勢繼續下去，我們就一直在前進，我不認為這是假的。看，新車庫存回來了，供應量增加了。國內供應正在增加。我們將全面看到這一點。當這種情況發生時，你會情不自禁地看到二手車估值下降。它會發生的。我們一直在說它會發生。

But that's also why you run a really tight day supply. If you're caught up with a 40-, 50-, 60-day supply right now, you've got problems coming your way. And we just don't have that. We've been very disciplined as we have in the past, probably as disciplined today as we've ever been and we're ready for this. And it's exciting times for EchoPark.

但這也是您每天供應非常緊張的原因。如果您現在遇到 40 天、50 天、60 天的供應量，您就會遇到問題。而我們只是沒有那個。我們一如既往地紀律嚴明，今天可能和以往一樣紀律嚴明，我們已經為此做好了準備。對於 EchoPark 來說，這是激動人心的時刻。

And that's a great update. And as you've learned more about that demand, it's picking up, what do you think the long-term mix of these older vehicles? Last few years, the 5% to 8% was kind of a plug to meet that affordability headwind. I guess as you see your core coming back, what have you learned about where that 5% to 8% mix could fit? And then what it means ultimately for long-term economics given the higher profitability on those units?

這是一個很棒的更新。隨著您對這種需求的了解越來越多，它正在回升，您如何看待這些舊車的長期組合？過去幾年，5% 到 8% 是一種解決負擔能力逆風的方法。我想當你看到你的核心回歸時，你對 5% 到 8% 的組合適合的地方有什麼了解？那麼，考慮到這些單位的盈利能力更高，這對長期經濟最終意味著什麼？

Yes. Look, it's going to be 15%, maybe 20%. We -- our EchoPark model is 1- to 5-year-old cars, and it works. And we've proven that. The 5- to 8-year-old brings a lot more complexity and they're a lot harder to get, great margin. We agree with you, and we sell them every day in our franchise business, and we're selling a lot of them now at the EchoPark stores. But it's a whole lot easier to sell 1- to 5-year-old cars in our model. And as that inventory comes back, I think you'll see a drop in the overall mix. It won't go away, it will be higher than it's ever been historically because we like the margin, it's there, but it's just not going to be as big a percent of the mix as it is today. So I'd call it 15% to 20%, somewhere in that ballpark.

是的。看，它會是 15%，也許是 20%。我們 - 我們的 EchoPark 模型是 1 到 5 年的汽車，它可以工作。我們已經證明了這一點。 5 到 8 歲的孩子帶來了更多的複雜性，而且他們更難獲得，利潤率很高。我們同意你的看法，我們每天都在我們的特許經營業務中銷售它們，我們現在在 EchoPark 商店銷售很多。但在我們的模型中銷售 1 至 5 年車齡的汽車要容易得多。隨著庫存恢復，我認為你會看到整體組合有所下降。它不會消失，它會比歷史上任何時候都高，因為我們喜歡利潤率，它就在那裡，但它不會像今天那樣佔組合的百分比。所以我稱之為 15% 到 20%，在那個球場的某個地方。

Got it. And then last one for me. Just maybe on the franchise side of EchoPark. Trying to understand the long-term impacts to your business from the big decline in lease penetration in the last few years. Given the high luxury mix, I'm guessing your lease penetration was higher. We've seen that fall, which means less -- fewer lease returns in the coming years. Does that hamper your parts and service business, as that customer comes back to you fewer times? Does it hamper sourcing at EchoPark? Just trying to think through what are the year 2, 3 and 4 impacts from this big decline in leases underwritten the last couple of years?

知道了。然後最後一個給我。也許只是在 EchoPark 的特許經營方面。試圖了解過去幾年租賃滲透率大幅下降對您的業務的長期影響。考慮到高奢侈品組合，我猜你的租賃滲透率更高。我們已經看到了那個秋天，這意味著未來幾年的租賃回報會更少。這是否會妨礙您的零件和服務業務，因為該客戶回訪您的次數減少了？它會妨礙 EchoPark 的採購嗎？只是想想想過去幾年承保的租約大幅下降對第 2、3 和 4 年的影響是什麼？

Yes, it hurts. Just you can't say it any other way. I think we'll see 12% to 18% increases in leases this year, something of that nature. It will be primarily in the big lease markets that are driving that but it certainly hurt the business. That's a big chunk of our overall used car inventory for franchises. It usually represents around 30% to 35% of our overall volume. And the high line stores could be higher than that. And they're auction lane cars too for EchoPark. So it certainly hurt us.

是的，很痛。只是你不能用任何其他方式說出來。我認為我們今年會看到租賃量增加 12% 到 18%，就是這種性質的。推動這一趨勢的將主要是大型租賃市場，但它肯定會損害業務。這是我們特許經營二手車庫存的很大一部分。它通常占我們總交易量的 30% 到 35% 左右。而高端商店的價格可能更高。他們也是 EchoPark 的拍賣車道汽車。所以它肯定傷害了我們。

But with the decline in pricing and inventory coming back, we can find that inventory elsewhere and we're showing that. We're buying more cars today than we bought in a long time at EchoPark and we'll continue to be able to do that as the prices come down. So most important thing is the gap between the payment that you make on a used vehicle and the payments being made on a new vehicle. That gap is why the new vehicle payments are going up, prices have increased, MSRPs are going up, used vehicle prices are coming down. That gap needs to be between 55% and 58% that of a new vehicle payment. And when that happens, it's game on for us.

但隨著價格下降和庫存回升，我們可以在其他地方找到庫存，我們正在展示這一點。我們今天購買的汽車比我們長期以來在 EchoPark 購買的汽車還多，而且隨著價格下降，我們將繼續這樣做。因此，最重要的是您在二手車上支付的款項與在新車上支付的款項之間的差距。這種差距就是為什麼新車付款增加，價格上漲，廠商建議零售價上漲，二手車價格下降的原因。這個差距需要在新車付款的 55% 到 58% 之間。當這種情況發生時，對我們來說就是遊戲了。

Got it. And so to be clear, you're not thinking the lack of lease returns will be a hindrance to the core franchise used volume going forward? You can overcome that headwind?

知道了。所以要明確一點，你不認為缺乏租賃回報會阻礙核心特許經營使用量的發展嗎？你能克服逆風嗎？

Not any more than it has been in the last 12 months. I mean, it's already been a hindrance, and we expect that to continue. But we're doing a good job in going and sourcing that inventory from the customer that's buying that lease out. The car is not gone. It's there with a customer. They still have the car, and we're sourcing that inventory and buying it from them. So it's just moving from off lease to buy off the street. And as leasing comes back, then that's just a big help to the industry, not a hindrance.

與過去 12 個月一樣。我的意思是，這已經成為一個障礙，我們希望這種情況會繼續下去。但是我們在從購買租賃的客戶那裡採購庫存方面做得很好。車沒有走。它和客戶在一起。他們仍然有車，我們正在採購庫存並從他們那裡購買。所以它只是從租賃轉移到街上購買。隨著租賃的回歸，這對這個行業來說只是一個很大的幫助，而不是障礙。

Yes. You said -- this is David. You said before the call, Jeff, about how our team is -- our business and our team, they adapt to the changing market. And I think they've become better than ever about following up. It's our traffic management, our emphasis on that. It's been unprecedented and how we reach our customer base to acquire those cars.

是的。你說——這是大衛。傑夫，你在通話前說過我們的團隊如何——我們的業務和我們的團隊，他們適應不斷變化的市場。我認為他們在跟進方面比以往任何時候都做得更好。這是我們的交通管理，我們對此很重視。這是前所未有的，我們如何接觸我們的客戶群來購買這些汽車。

Our next questions come from the line of Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Great. Just following up on EchoPark. The last time you were profitable in that business was at a much lower level of volume, like 6,000 to 7,000 cars per month. You're not suggesting it's close -- it should be closer to 9,000 to 10,000. Is the difference there primarily because of higher fixed expenses in the base or more stores? Just trying to understand the bridge there. And I have a couple of follow-ups.

偉大的。只是跟進 EchoPark。上一次你在該業務中盈利的數量要低得多，比如每月 6,000 到 7,000 輛汽車。你並不是說它很接近——它應該接近 9,000 到 10,000。差異主要是因為基地或更多商店的固定費用較高嗎？只是想了解那裡的橋樑。我有幾個後續行動。

Yes. It's all of the above. I mean we've built EchoPark for growth. And so our corporate expenses are significantly higher than they were when we were breaking even or making money in the 6,000 to 7,000 month range. It's more like 9,000 -- it gets us to the breakeven number, which we expect to be at before the year is over with.

是的。以上都是。我的意思是我們建立 EchoPark 是為了增長。因此，我們的公司開支明顯高於我們在 6,000 至 7,000 個月範圍內收支平衡或盈利時的水平。它更像是 9,000——它讓我們達到收支平衡的數字，我們預計在今年結束之前達到這個數字。

And then the front-end margin plays a big role in that. As the prices get down below $25,000 towards the $24,000 mark and then the depreciation flattens out to a more normalized depreciation schedule, that's going to make a huge difference for us. We're just built to do real heavy volume. It doesn't mean that if something changes or goes awry, we can't pull triggers to reduce that overhead. But we didn't think it was the right thing to do. The model works, and we're very excited about that. We've got a very strong franchise business that can pull us along here with great maturity. So hopefully, that answers your question.

然後前端保證金在其中起著重要作用。隨著價格跌至 25,000 美元以下，接近 24,000 美元大關，然後折舊趨於平緩到更正常的折舊時間表，這將對我們產生巨大影響。我們只是為了做真正的大容量而建立的。這並不意味著如果某事發生變化或出現問題，我們就不能拉動觸發器來減少開銷。但我們不認為這是正確的做法。該模型有效，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們有一個非常強大的特許經營業務，可以讓我們以非常成熟的方式來到這裡。希望這能回答您的問題。

Yes, this is David. In addition to that, we look at EchoPark as a long-term investment. We're making that investment in our EchoPark teams, training, hiring and we're seeing it in the -- in the numbers. We're seeing it in -- and we've got a world-class guest experience. You can see it in the feedback. We're building our e-commerce -- continue to build out our e-commerce platform. It's a long-term investment. It's not quarter-to-quarter.

是的，這是大衛。除此之外，我們將 EchoPark 視為一項長期投資。我們正在對我們的 EchoPark 團隊、培訓、招聘進行投資，我們在數字中看到了這一點。我們看到了——我們擁有世界一流的賓客體驗。你可以在反饋中看到它。我們正在建設我們的電子商務——繼續建設我們的電子商務平台。這是一項長期投資。這不是按季度計算的。

And Rajat, this is Danny. One more point to add there. We've got probably $10 million to $15 million of floor plan interest headwind at EchoPark this year with the higher volumes, to anticipate higher volumes on top of the higher rates that we've experienced and seen come about over the last 3 to 5 months. So that's another piece of what has helped us or caused us to raise that overall breakeven volume targets.

拉賈特，這是丹尼。還有一點要補充。今年我們在 EchoPark 可能遇到 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元的平面圖利息逆風，因為交易量增加，預計在過去 3 到 5 個月我們經歷和看到的更高利率之外還會有更高的交易量.所以這是幫助我們或導致我們提高整體盈虧平衡目標的另一部分。

And the branding.

還有品牌。

Yes. We'll launch the EchoPark brand in Houston, Texas starting in this month in March. And so there will be some incremental expense that goes along with launching that brand. It's something that we did in Denver at our Thornton location, which is a store that's really almost returned back to pre-COVID levels from a profit perspective and a volume perspective. And we just expect to start seeing that across the entire enterprise as we move through this year.

是的。我們將於 3 月本月在得克薩斯州休斯敦推出 EchoPark 品牌。因此，推出該品牌會帶來一些增量費用。這是我們在丹佛 Thornton 門店所做的事情，從利潤和銷量的角度來看，這家商店幾乎已經恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。隨著我們今年的發展，我們只是希望在整個企業中開始看到這一點。

Got it. And on the franchise side, it was 60% in '22, you said mid-60s for '23. Is that just primarily the gross -- the GPU -- GPUs moderating? Or -- is there anything else driving that increase? Or any other buckets that you would point out in terms of investments?

知道了。在特許經營權方面，22 年是 60%，你說 23 年是 60 年代中期。這主要是總的——GPU——GPU 調節嗎？或者 - 是否還有其他因素推動了這種增長？或者您會在投資方面指出任何其他方面？

It's really a couple of things. The only incremental investment is going to be in the IT innovation that we're doing that we spread across EchoPark and the franchise as the biggest driver is your denominator -- decrease in growth.

這真的是兩件事。唯一的增量投資將是我們正在進行的 IT 創新，我們將其擴展到 EchoPark 和特許經營權，因為最大的驅動力是你的分母——增長下降。

Got it. Got it. Just as in parts and services. Any color you can give in terms of puts and takes for 2023 maybe across different segments? Obviously, very strong trends here exiting the year. But how do you see 2023 playing out there?

知道了。知道了。就像零件和服務一樣。您可以就 2023 年不同細分市場的看跌期權給出任何顏色嗎？顯然，今年的趨勢非常強勁。但是您如何看待 2023 年的發展呢？

Yes. This is Jeff. Mid- to high single-digit growth, if not a little better. We saw a 12% growth, I think, in January. And we couldn't be more excited about where we are from a fixed perspective. We've got a lot of internal projects going on there, including sourcing technicians, which is really important piece of this overall mix. And so it should be a fantastic year from a fixed perspective.

是的。這是傑夫。中高個位數增長，如果不是更好的話。我認為，1 月份我們看到了 12% 的增長。從固定的角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到非常興奮。我們在那裡進行了很多內部項目，包括採購技術人員，這是整個組合中非常重要的一部分。因此，從固定的角度來看，這應該是美妙的一年。

And to be honest, these internal projects is really the first time that we're putting a focus on traffic management as it relates to service marketing, even at the upside level, some innovative things that the manufacturer is helping us with. So there's a lot more focus on bringing customers in and retaining them than we really have done in the past. So I think we'll see that pay off as well.

老實說，這些內部項目確實是我們第一次將重點放在與服務營銷相關的流量管理上，即使在上層，製造商正在幫助我們進行一些創新。因此，與過去相比，我們更加註重吸引客戶並留住他們。所以我認為我們也會看到回報。

Our next questions come from the line of Bret Jordan with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Bret Jordan。

Could you give a little more color on the Powersports segment, sort of ASP and GPU ranges for new and used? And maybe what does the service business look like in that space?

您能否在 Powersports 部分提供更多顏色，新的和二手的 ASP 和 GPU 範圍？也許服務業務在那個領域是什麼樣子的？

You know, amazingly, the margins in the Powersports business are fantastic. I mean we're averaging front-end margin. It's a little different from Black Hills to Mancuso, the front-end margins are in the $3,000 to $3,500 range, back in margins around $1,000, somewhere in that ballpark. And we think we can help there in a big way with warranties and other things of that nature that we're working on.

你知道，令人驚訝的是，Powersports 業務的利潤率非常高。我的意思是我們平均前端保證金。從 Black Hills 到 Mancuso 有點不同，前端利潤在 3,000 美元到 3,500 美元之間，回到 1,000 美元左右，在那個球場的某個地方。我們認為我們可以通過保證和我們正在處理的其他類似性質的事情在很大程度上幫助那裡。

In the volumes, it depends. I mean, if you're talking about Harley or we're talking about metric, which is everything else. But in Mancuso, we sell Sea-Doos, we sell Polaris. We sell all kinds of different items. And the volume is solid, and it's been solid since the data purchase. So we expect that to continue. I don't know that I would call it pent-up demand, but there are certainly a lot of desire for that product.

在數量上，這取決於。我的意思是，如果你在談論哈雷，或者我們在談論公制，那就是其他一切。但在曼庫索，我們出售 Sea-Doos，我們出售北極星。我們出售各種不同的物品。而且音量很穩定，自購買數據以來一直很穩定。所以我們希望這種情況繼續下去。我不知道我會稱之為被壓抑的需求，但肯定有很多對該產品的需求。

The same kind of idea that you see on the new car sales last year, where we just didn't have the product to sell because the manufacturers haven't been able to get it to us. That's loosening up a little bit, just like we see on new cars, but great margins, great volume, great profitability, and great multiples. So just -- we think it's an opportunity.

你在去年的新車銷售中看到了同樣的想法，我們只是沒有產品可以銷售，因為製造商無法將其提供給我們。這有點鬆動，就像我們在新車上看到的那樣，但利潤率高，銷量大，盈利能力高，倍數也高。所以 - 我們認為這是一個機會。

Again, we're walking into this, as we said earlier. But we've got 13 locations now. And we'll spend again in the next 12 to 18 months developing our playbooks, our processes, our technology, get those all installed, and then we'll see what the future holds for us.

同樣，正如我們之前所說，我們正在走進這個領域。但我們現在有 13 個地點。我們將在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內再次花時間開發我們的劇本、我們的流程、我們的技術，將它們全部安裝好，然後我們將看到我們的未來。

I would just add to that, that -- this is David, that we -- we did our research. I mentioned earlier, we also met with Harley-Davidson. We love the team there, their leadership, and we love where they're headed. And the brand loyalty and the customer loyalty, it's absolutely incredible. So there's -- we tried -- again, we tried to get into it with buying really the top notch, the best of the best, and we think we did that with the stores that we bought so far.

我只想補充一點，這是大衛，我們做了我們的研究。我之前提到過，我們還遇到了哈雷戴維森。我們喜歡那裡的團隊，他們的領導能力，我們喜歡他們的前進方向。以及品牌忠誠度和客戶忠誠度，這絕對令人難以置信。所以有——我們嘗試過——再次，我們試圖通過購買真正一流的、最好的中的最好的來進入它，我們認為我們通過我們迄今為止購買的商店做到了這一點。

Okay. Great. And then a question on incentives. Obviously, you're not big in Ford and Stellantis, but one of your peers was talking about increasing promotional activity. Are you seeing that more broadly across other brands now as supply comes back? Or is it really pretty localized?

好的。偉大的。然後是關於激勵的問題。顯然，您在福特和 Stellantis 的規模不大，但您的一位同行正在談論增加促銷活動。隨著供應恢復，您現在是否在其他品牌中更廣泛地看到了這一點？或者它真的很本地化？

It's localized. We're certainly not seeing that on the High line brands. It may be just a little bit to incentivize leasing. We do have one very large Chrysler store and Dave Smith Motors, which is the largest Chrysler store in the world. And where that service is really just to stop sales on 2,500 and 3,500 trucks.

它是本地化的。我們當然不會在高線品牌上看到這一點。激勵租賃可能只是一點點。我們確實有一家非常大的克萊斯勒商店和 Dave Smith Motors，這是世界上最大的克萊斯勒商店。而這項服務實際上只是為了停止銷售 2,500 和 3,500 輛卡車。

Incentives are going to come back as inventory comes back. And as that starts rising and they've got to turn out of inventory, that's going to happen and margins are going to fall. We're working with our manufacturer partners to make sure they understand keeping that they supply at a reasonable level, call that 25 to 35 days instead of pre-pandemic 60 to 80 days is the right way to run this business. And I think they all agree with that. I haven't heard one of them say that they don't because profits are at all-time high.

隨著庫存恢復，激勵措施將恢復。隨著價格開始上漲，他們必須清空庫存，這種情況將會發生，利潤率將會下降。我們正在與我們的製造商合作夥伴合作，以確保他們了解將他們的供應保持在合理的水平，稱 25 至 35 天而不是大流行前的 60 至 80 天是開展這項業務的正確方法。我認為他們都同意這一點。我還沒有聽到他們中的任何一個說他們不這樣做是因為利潤處於歷史最高水平。

And the only way to screw that up is ourselves. And so I think the manufacturers recognize that, and they'll do a good job of trying to keep incentives down which will keep pricing somewhere in the MSRP range as we move forward.

而搞砸的唯一方法就是我們自己。因此，我認為製造商認識到這一點，他們會在努力降低激勵措施方面做得很好，這將在我們前進的過程中將定價保持在建議零售價範圍內的某個位置。

Okay. And then one last question. I know historically, you were not moving inventory from franchise dealerships to help feed EchoPark. Is that still the case? Or -- is there an opportunity to internally source some of the EchoPark inventories you're getting to older cars that maybe you don't want to sell at a franchise dealership?

好的。然後是最後一個問題。我知道從歷史上看，您並沒有從特許經銷店轉移庫存來幫助滿足 EchoPark 的需求。現在還是這樣嗎？或者 - 是否有機會在內部採購一些 EchoPark 庫存，用於您可能不想在特許經銷店出售的舊車？

No, that's still the case. We sell everything at the franchise dealerships unless we have to push it to an auction. So that's still the case. We typically don't move inventory around between the 2. We did that [Tonkin] and I did that in a different life and that really didn't work. And so we've tried to stay away from that.

不，還是那樣。我們在特許經銷商處出售所有東西，除非我們必須將其推向拍賣。所以還是這樣。我們通常不會在兩者之間移動庫存。我們[Tonkin]做了那個，我在不同的生活中做了那個，但確實沒有用。所以我們試圖遠離它。

It's a great idea. But what you end up doing is the franchise stores lose out on volume and you mess up their rhythm. And so we prefer not to do that unless it's just absolutely necessary.

這是個好主意。但你最終做的是特許經營店失去了銷量，你打亂了他們的節奏。因此，除非絕對必要，否則我們寧願不這樣做。

Yes. We wanted the EchoPark stores to be able to survive on their own, eat what they can.

是的。我們希望 EchoPark 商店能夠獨立生存，吃他們能吃的東西。

(Operator Instructions) Our next questions come from the line of Diego Ortega with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自迭戈奧爾特加與摩根士丹利的合作。

I'm here on behalf of Adam Jonas. So I have a quick question. ABS data is showing that the auto borrowers are starting to feel some pressure. I'm curious on your view on the consumer and demand going into 2023. You mentioned that volumes should be higher and especially with increasing affordability of the monthly payment, but I was just curious on your consumer views going into the year.

我代表 Adam Jonas 來到這裡。所以我有一個快速的問題。 ABS 數據顯示，汽車借款人開始感到一些壓力。我很好奇您對 2023 年消費者和需求的看法。您提到銷量應該更高，尤其是隨著每月付款的負擔能力提高，但我只是對您對今年消費者的看法感到好奇。

I mean we haven't seen anything yet that would tell us that consumer demand is just dropping way off. I think it has a lot more to do with the average retail selling price of the vehicle than it does at this point, the interest rate, depending on what happens with rates as we move forward.

我的意思是我們還沒有看到任何可以告訴我們消費者需求正在下降的跡象。我認為這與車輛的平均零售價有很大關係，而不是此時利率，這取決於我們前進時利率的變化。

It certainly can cause some volatility and certainly can cause floor plan issues because our floor plan number is going to be hell a lot higher this year than it has been in recent years. But overall, we've just not seen that. The demand for pre-owned cars is there. And as that average retail price starts dropping, there's pent-up demand there, and we'll see that both on our franchise and EchoPark business.

它肯定會導致一些波動，並且肯定會導致平面圖問題，因為今年我們的平面圖數量將比近年來高得多。但總的來說，我們還沒有看到。對二手車的需求就在那裡。隨著平均零售價開始下降，那裡存在被壓抑的需求，我們將在我們的特許經營權和 EchoPark 業務中看到這一點。

Certainly, it can play a role if you're financing an $80,000 high line car or a luxury vehicle, that certainly can play a role. We just haven't seen it yet.

當然，如果您為一輛價值 80,000 美元的高端汽車或豪華車融資，它肯定會發揮作用。我們只是還沒有看到它。

And if you look at general industry media, definitely credit is tightening. And this is (inaudible) way. If I look in my one concern going into 2023 is affordability. It's the economy. And as rates go up, I do think that it has a potential of impacting finance penetration. People shop around a little bit more and so the affordability is absolutely concerned. We haven't seen it materially impact us at this point, but it is one of our concerns going into the year.

如果你看看一般的行業媒體，肯定會發現信貸正在收緊。這是（聽不清）方式。如果我考慮進入 2023 年的一個問題，那就是負擔能力。是經濟。隨著利率上升，我確實認為它有可能影響金融滲透率。人們貨比三家，所以購買能力絕對是個問題。目前我們還沒有看到它對我們產生重大影響，但這是我們進入這一年的擔憂之一。

And you've got to imagine that people who have been -- people have been waiting for that used car price to come down, right, as we've been saying. And as soon as it does, they're going to jump in the market and buy the car that they've been waiting to buy.

你必須想像那些一直在等待二手車價格下降的人，就像我們一直在說的那樣。一旦成功，他們就會跳入市場併購買他們一直在等待購買的汽車。

And we're seeing that now. I mean you look at our EchoPark volume, it's up, like I said, in January, 30% trending the same in February, if not even a little better. And the franchise business is really strong as well used business is really strong. That will continue to get stronger as the prices drop because there's definitely pent-up demand there.

我們現在看到了。我的意思是你看一下我們的 EchoPark 數量，就像我說的那樣，1 月份增加了 30%，與 2 月份的趨勢相同，甚至更好一點。特許經營業務非常強大，二手業務也非常強大。隨著價格下跌，這種情況將繼續走強，因為那里肯定存在被壓抑的需求。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the call back over to David Smith for any closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 David Smith 以徵求任何結束意見。

Great. Thank you, everyone. We appreciate you being on the call. Have a great day.

偉大的。謝謝大家。感謝您的來電。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路並享受接下來的一天。