使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Sabber second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Sean and I will be your operator. As a reminder, please note today's call is being recorded.
早安,歡迎參加 Sabber 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫肖恩,我將擔任您的接線生。提醒一下,請注意今天的通話正在錄音。
I will now turn the call over to the senior Vice President investor relations and treasurer, Brian Evans. Please go ahead, sir.
現在我將把電話轉給高級副總裁投資者關係兼財務主管布萊恩·埃文斯 (Brian Evans)。先生,請繼續。
Brian Evans - Senior VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer
Brian Evans - Senior VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer
Good morning, and welcome to our second-quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, we issued an earnings press release, which is available on our website at investors.sabre.com. A slide presentation, which accompanies today's prepared remarks is also available during this call on the Sabre Investor Relations web page. A replay of today's call will be available on our website later this morning.
早安,歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天上午,我們發布了一份獲利新聞稿,可在我們的網站 investors.sabre.com 上查閱。今天電話會議期間,我們還提供了一份幻燈片演示,其中包含今天的準備好的發言稿,可在 Sabre 投資者關係網頁上查閱。今天上午晚些時候,我們的網站將提供今天電話會議的重播。
We advise you that our comments contain forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events, timing and effects of the agreement to sell our Hospitality Solutions business, including pro forma financial information, results of our growth strategies, transactions and bookings growth, commercial and strategic arrangements and our financial guidance, outlook and expectations, free cash flow, net leverage, liquidity, among others.
我們提醒您,我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述,代表我們對未來事件、出售酒店解決方案業務的協議的時間和影響的信念或期望,包括備考財務信息、我們的增長戰略結果、交易和預訂增長、商業和戰略安排以及我們的財務指導、展望和預期、自由現金流、淨槓桿、流動性等。
All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made on today's conference call. More information on these risks and uncertainties is contained in our earnings release issued this morning and our SEC filings, including our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.
所有前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與今天電話會議上的陳述有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多資訊包含在我們今天早上發布的收益報告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中,包括截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的季度的 10-Q 表。
Throughout today's call, we will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. References during today's call to adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, normalized adjusted EBITDA and normalized adjusted EBITDA margin have been adjusted to exclude certain items.
在今天的電話會議中,我們還將介紹一些非公認會計準則財務指標。今天電話會議中提到的調整後 EBITDA、調整後 EBITDA 利潤率、標準化調整後 EBITDA 和標準化調整後 EBITDA 利潤率均已進行調整,以排除某些項目。
The most directly comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations for non-GAAP measures are available in the earnings release and other documents posted on our website at investors.sabre.com. Normalized amounts have been adjusted for estimated costs historically allocated to our Hospitality Solutions business, which was sold on July 3, 2025.
最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標以及非 GAAP 指標的調整表可在我們網站 investors.sabre.com 上發布的收益報告和其他文件中查閱。標準化金額已根據以往分配給我們酒店解決方案業務的預估成本進行調整,該業務已於 2025 年 7 月 3 日出售。
We are also presenting certain financial information on a pro forma basis to give effect to the sale of the Hospitality Solutions business, and we have removed the impact of the $227 million payment in kind interest that was recorded in conjunction with the refinancing activity in the second quarter of 2025 from pro forma free cash flow. Unless otherwise noted, results presented are based on continuing operations.
我們也以備考形式呈現某些財務信息,以反映酒店解決方案業務的出售,並且我們從備考自由現金流中剔除了與 2025 年第二季度再融資活動一起記錄的 2.27 億美元實物支付利息的影響。除非另有說明,否則呈現的結果均基於持續經營。
Participating with me are Kurt Ekert, President and CEO, and and Mike Randolfi, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I will turn the call over to Kurt.
與我一起參加的還有總裁兼執行長 Kurt Ekert 和財務長 Mike Randolfi。說完這些,我將把電話轉給庫爾特。
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Brian. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we reported Second Quarter results and provide an updated outlook for the remainder of the year. In what has been a dynamic and at times challenging first half of the year, we have remained focused on executing our strategic priorities. These are first to generate free cash flow and delever the balance sheet; and second, to drive sustainable growth by delivering innovative technology solutions for our customers. Through the work of our team members, we believe Sabre is a stronger and better positioned company today versus a year ago.
謝謝,布萊恩。大家好,感謝大家的參與。今天早些時候,我們報告了第二季的業績並對今年剩餘時間提供了最新展望。在充滿活力且有時充滿挑戰的上半年,我們始終專注於執行我們的策略重點。這些措施首先是為了產生自由現金流並降低資產負債表的槓桿率;其次,透過為客戶提供創新的技術解決方案來推動永續成長。透過我們團隊成員的努力,我們相信,與一年前相比,Sabre 如今更加強大,定位也更加明確。
Over the past year, we have taken meaningful steps to strengthen our balance sheet. We have grown adjusted EBITDA, extended debt maturities and paid down debt. Year-to-date, our normalized adjusted EBITDA has grown 4% year-on-year. We have significantly improved our debt maturity profile, extending nearly 60% of our debt to 2029 and beyond. And this year, we have reduced total debt by more than $1 billion or nearly 20%, using a combination of cash from our balance sheet and proceeds from the sale of Hospitality Solutions.
在過去的一年裡,我們採取了有意義的措施來加強我們的資產負債表。我們增加了調整後的 EBITDA、延長了債務期限並償還了債務。年初至今,我們的標準化調整後 EBITDA 年成長 4%。我們大幅改善了債務到期狀況,將近 60% 的債務延長至 2029 年及以後。今年,我們利用資產負債表中的現金和出售飯店解決方案所得的收益,將總債務減少了 10 多億美元,即近 20%。
Taken together, we expect to reduce our year-end 2025 net leverage by approximately 50% versus year-end 2023. At the same time, our commitment to innovation is reshaping the travel landscape as we introduce new and enhanced solutions for our customers. We are making significant progress with the implementation of signed new business, which we expect to accelerate in the back half of 2025. Our solutions are resonating in the marketplace as evidenced by continued commercial momentum.
綜合起來,我們預計 2025 年底的淨槓桿率將比 2023 年底降低約 50%。同時,我們致力於創新,為客戶推出新的、增強的解決方案,進而重塑旅遊業格局。我們在簽署的新業務實施方面取得了重大進展,預計到 2025 年下半年這一進程將加速。我們的解決方案在市場上引起了反響,持續的商業動能就是明證。
The operating environment remains challenging and is pressuring air distribution bookings. As a result, the second quarter came in below expectations, and we are updating our outlook for the remainder of the year. Despite this near-term pressure, we are staying focused on executing and making steady progress against our strategy, which we believe best position Sabre for long-term growth.
營運環境依然充滿挑戰,為航空分銷預訂帶來壓力。因此,第二季的表現低於預期,我們正在更新今年剩餘時間的展望。儘管面臨短期壓力,我們仍將專注於執行並穩步推進我們的策略,我們相信這最有利於 Sabre 的長期成長。
Moving to Slide 5. I will provide some additional details on the second quarter. Air Distribution bookings declined 1% year-on-year, outperforming the broader GDS industry, but falling short of previous expectations, for low single-digit growth that we shared on our Q1 call.
移至投影片 5。我將提供有關第二季度的一些更多細節。航空分銷預訂量年減 1%,表現優於 GDS 行業整體水平,但未達到先前預期,我們在第一季電話會議上分享了低個位數成長的預期。
During the second quarter, our growth strategies added 8 points of growth to air distribution bookings compared to the prior year. However, this growth was offset by a combined 9-point decline in our base business, 4 points from the GDS industry and 5 points from Sabre mix, resulting in the 1% decrease in Air Distribution bookings for the quarter.
在第二季度,我們的成長策略使航空分銷預訂量與去年同期相比成長了 8 個百分點。然而,這一成長被我們基礎業務的 9 個百分點、GDS 行業的 4 個百分點和 Sabre 業務組合的 5 個百分點的下降所抵消,導致本季度航空分銷預訂量下降 1%。
Regarding the GDS industry, the weakness of corporate bookings relative to leisure and the pullback of government and military travel, which almost exclusively booked through the GDS caused GDS volumes to underperform airline passenger growth. Relative to other GDS competitors, Sabre's mix has a higher exposure to both of these factors.
就 GDS 行業而言,相對於休閒旅遊,企業預訂表現疲軟,政府和軍事旅行的減少(這些旅行幾乎全部透過 GDS 預訂)導致 GDS 的客運量增長不及航空客運量增長。與其他 GDS 競爭對手相比,Sabre 的組合對這兩個因素的暴露程度更高。
We also have more share than our competitors in certain countries that had a disproportionate decline and less share in certain countries that performed better, driving further pressure. While we expected some industry stabilization during the quarter, incremental industry weakness emerged in June and continued into July, which was the driver of our Air Distribution bookings shortfall to expectations.
在某些下滑幅度較大的國家,我們的份額也比競爭對手大,而在某些表現較好的國家,我們的份額卻較小,這進一步帶來了壓力。雖然我們預計本季產業會有所穩定,但 6 月份產業逐漸出現疲軟跡象,並持續到 7 月份,這導致我們的航空分銷訂單量低於預期。
Volumes from our growth strategies are scaling largely as expected. These growth strategies contributed over $2 million of Air Distribution bookings in June and approximately $2.5 million in July, which represents approximately 10 points of growth year-on-year. This momentum supports our path to greater than 30 million incremental air distribution bookings from our growth strategies for full year 2025. Hotel distribution bookings growth continued, up 2% in the quarter, and the attachment rate to air bookings improved 100 basis points to 34%.
我們的成長策略的規模正在如預期般大幅擴大。這些成長策略在 6 月貢獻了超過 200 萬美元的航空配送訂單,在 7 月貢獻了約 250 萬美元的訂單,年增了約 10 個百分點。這一勢頭支持我們透過 2025 年全年的成長策略實現超過 3,000 萬的增量航空分銷預訂量。飯店分銷預訂量持續成長,本季成長了 2%,機票預訂的附加率提高了 100 個基點,達到 34%。
Within IT solutions, passengers boarded increased by 1% year-on-year. Importantly, we continue to stay focused on what is within our control, executing our growth strategies, realizing the benefits of our technology transformation and continued cost management. These actions helped drive Q2 2025 normalized adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% versus prior year and normalized adjusted EBITDA margin improvement of approximately 120 basis points to approximately 19%.
在 IT 解決方案領域,登機乘客數量年增了 1%。重要的是,我們繼續專注於我們能控制的事情,執行我們的成長策略,實現技術轉型和持續成本管理帶來的好處。這些措施有助於推動 2025 年第二季標準化調整後 EBITDA 較上年成長 6%,標準化調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提高約 120 個基點至約 19%。
Moving to Slide 6. We are accelerating the transformation of our platform into a modern, open travel marketplace that seamlessly integrates content and capabilities from a wide range of sources. In multisource content, Sabre continues to demonstrate industry leadership with 38 live NDC connections now operational, among the most in the industry and seamless shopping, booking and workflow integration.
移至幻燈片 6。我們正在加速將我們的平台轉變為一個現代化的、開放的旅遊市場,無縫整合來自廣泛來源的內容和功能。在多源內容領域,Sabre 繼續展現行業領導地位,目前已投入運營 38 個即時 NDC 連接,位居行業前列,並實現了無縫購物、預訂和工作流程整合。
Our distribution expansion strategy is progressing well. For example, Christopherson Business Travel recently selected Sabre as its primary distribution technology partner, building upon numerous wins in 2024 and 2025, and demonstrating continued commercial momentum.
我們的分銷擴張策略進展順利。例如,克里斯多福森商務旅行社 (Christopherson Business Travel) 最近選擇 Sabre 作為其主要分銷技術合作夥伴,在 2024 年和 2025 年取得眾多勝利的基礎上,展現出持續的商業發展勢頭。
Hotel B2B distribution gross booking value transacted through the platform continues with an annualized turnover of $20 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year. Our digital payments business also continues to scale rapidly with Q2 gross spend of $5 billion, up 44% year-on-year.
透過該平台交易的酒店 B2B 分銷總預訂價值繼續保持年化營業額 200 億美元的水平,同比增長 4%。我們的數位支付業務也持續快速擴張,第二季總支出達 50 億美元,較去年同期成長 44%。
We continue to see strong traction with the AI-powered offer management suite of IQ products, a cornerstone of SabreMosaic. These products are well timed to help airlines as they navigate today's shifting demand. During the quarter, we signed an agreement with Avelo Airlines, who will become the first low-cost carrier to adopt ancillary IQ. We now have nine airlines that will be utilizing our SabreMosaic offer management products.
我們繼續看到人工智慧驅動的 IQ 產品優惠管理套件(SabreMosaic 的基石)的強勁成長。這些產品的推出恰逢其時,可以幫助航空公司應對當今不斷變化的需求。本季度,我們與 Avelo Airlines 簽署了一項協議,Avelo Airlines 將成為第一家採用輔助 IQ 的廉價航空公司。目前,我們有九家航空公司將使用我們的 SabreMosaic 優惠來管理產品。
Overall, we are making significant progress against our strategy and transforming the business to capture long-term value in a dynamic and evolving travel marketplace. On to Slide 7. With the weakness we previously discussed in the first half of the year and uncertainty around GDS industry growth for the remainder of 2025, we have revised our outlook for the second half to range from 4% to 10% air distribution bookings growth. Similar to the first half, the drivers of this updated outlook are the GDS industry and Sabre mix as well as timing of growth strategy initiatives. I'll touch briefly on each of these.
總體而言,我們在策略實施方面取得了重大進展,並正在轉變業務以在充滿活力和不斷發展的旅遊市場中獲取長期價值。轉到投影片 7。鑑於我們之前討論過的上半年的疲軟以及 2025 年剩餘時間 GDS 行業增長的不確定性,我們已將下半年的預測修改為航空分銷預訂量增長 4% 至 10%。與上半年類似,此次更新展望的驅動因素是 GDS 產業和 Sabre 組合以及成長策略舉措的時機。我將簡要地談一談這些內容。
First, with regard to our updated view of the GDS industry, we do not believe these trends are structural, and expect them to stabilize over time. However, we anticipate the lower mix of corporate bookings versus leisure to continue through the remainder of 2025. Second, looking at bookings mix in the second half of 2025, we expect to continue to be adversely impacted by our greater exposure to corporate travel, military and government travel and our higher share in certain countries that are seeing a disproportionate travel decline.
首先,就我們對 GDS 產業的最新看法而言,我們不認為這些趨勢是結構性的,並預期它們會隨著時間的推移而穩定下來。然而,我們預計,2025 年剩餘時間內,企業預訂量與休閒預訂量的比例仍將持續較低。其次,從 2025 年下半年的預訂組合來看,我們預計,由於公司旅行、軍事和政府旅行的增加以及在某些旅行下降幅度不成比例的國家/地區的較高份額,我們將繼續受到不利影響。
However, we are encouraged by recent commentary from the US airlines indicating their expectations for improving second half trends. Finally, the remainder is related to growth strategy timing due primarily to a temporary delay from technology and connectivity development in the launch of our new multi-source low-cost carrier solution.
然而,美國航空公司最近的評論令我們感到鼓舞,他們表示預計下半年趨勢將有所改善。最後,其餘部分與成長策略時機有關,這主要是因為我們在推出新的多源低成本承運解決方案時技術和連接開發暫時延遲。
This solution is designed to expand access to even more LCC content beyond the 150-plus low-cost carriers already available on our platform today. Our early adopter program is progressing well. connecting content from over 50 additional LCCs to approximately 500 agencies. We had previously expected this new product offering to be in full production launch this summer, driving approximately 5 points of air distribution bookings growth in the second half of 2025, but now anticipate a 6-month delay and early 2026 for launch.
該解決方案旨在擴大對更多 LCC 內容的訪問,除了我們平台上目前已有的 150 多家低成本航空公司之外。我們的早期採用者計畫進展順利,將來自 50 多個其他 LCC 的內容連接到大約 500 個代理商。我們先前預計這款新產品將於今年夏天全面投產,推動 2025 年下半年航空分銷預訂量增長約 5 個百分點,但現在預計將延遲 6 個月並於 2026 年初推出。
Moving to the chart on the right, which represents our air distribution bookings guidance for the third and fourth quarter as well as the full year. We have broken out the drivers for year-on-year quarterly air distribution bookings growth for both actual results in the first half of the year and the expected acceleration in the second half.
轉到右側的圖表,它代表了我們對第三季、第四季以及全年的航空分銷預訂指引。我們列出了推動季度航空分銷預訂量同比增長的因素,包括上半年的實際業績和下半年的預期加速。
The black sections show the positive impacts of our growth strategies, driven primarily by the implementation of bookings from signed new business. This growth is being offset by the weakness previously discussed in the overall GDS industry and Sabre mix as displayed by the gray boxes shown in both the first and second quarter actuals.
黑色部分顯示了我們的成長策略的正面影響,主要由簽署的新業務預訂的實施所推動。這一增長被之前討論過的整體 GDS 行業和 Sabre 產品組合的疲軟所抵消,正如第一季度和第二季度實際數據中灰色框所示。
For the third quarter, we expect 13 points of growth in air distribution bookings from growth strategies, namely the realization of implemented new business. We expect our July exit rate for new business to be greater than 10 points of growth and we have clear line of sight to the new business realization projections for the remainder of the year. We expect this growth will exceed the headwinds I discussed previously, resulting in quarterly air distribution bookings growth of 2% to 6%.
對於第三季度,我們預期航空分銷預訂量將因成長策略(即實施的新業務的實現)而成長 13 個百分點。我們預計 7 月新業務退出率將成長 10 個百分點以上,並且我們對今年剩餘時間的新業務實現預測有清晰的認識。我們預計這一增長將超過我之前討論過的阻力,導致季度航空分銷預訂量增加 2% 至 6%。
In the fourth quarter, we expect to benefit from our growth strategies to accelerate and result in 19 points of growth resulting in total air distribution bookings growth of 6% to 14%. In summary, we are navigating some near-term challenges that we believe are largely transitory, and we are encouraged with the continued scaling of our new business volumes. We remain focused on executing our two strategic priorities, generating free cash flow and delevering the balance sheet, and driving sustainable growth through innovation. Through the team's continued hard work, Sabre is a stronger, better positioned company today than it was a year ago.
在第四季度,我們預計受益於我們的成長策略而加速,並帶來 19 個點的成長,從而使航空分銷預訂總量增加 6% 至 14%。總而言之,我們正在應對一些我們認為基本上是暫時的短期挑戰,並且我們對新業務量的持續擴大感到鼓舞。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的兩大策略重點,即創造自由現金流和降低資產負債表槓桿率,以及透過創新推動永續成長。透過團隊的持續努力,Sabre 如今比一年前更加強大,地位也更加穩固。
Thank you, and now over to Mike.
謝謝,現在交給麥克。
Michael Randolfi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Randolfi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 9. For the second quarter, Sabre reported revenue of $687 million, down 1% year-on-year. Distribution revenue decreased by $5 million, driven primarily by the decrease in air distribution bookings, which was partly offset by an increase in hotel distribution bookings.
謝謝,庫爾特,大家早安。請翻到投影片 9。Sabre 公佈第二季營收為 6.87 億美元,年減 1%。分銷收入減少了 500 萬美元,主要原因是航空分銷預訂量的減少,但酒店分銷預訂量的增加部分抵消了這一減少。
IT Solutions revenue decreased 2% year-on-year, driven primarily by previously disclosed de-migrated carriers, partially offset by an increase in passengers boarded and license fee revenue. Looking forward to the second half for IT Solutions, we anticipate continued passenger boarded growth with quarterly revenue in the $140 million to $145 million range.
IT 解決方案收入年減 2%,主要原因是先前披露的航空公司退出,但被登機乘客數量和許可費收入的增加部分抵消。展望 IT 解決方案下半年,我們預期乘客量將持續成長,季度營收將在 1.4 億美元至 1.45 億美元之間。
On a normalized basis, gross margin decreased 110 basis points in the second quarter versus the prior year. The decrease in gross margin is partially related to the foreign exchange impact of a weaker US dollar where Sabre generates revenue in dollars but pays agency incentives in local currency.
以正常標準計算,第二季毛利率較上年同期下降了 110 個基點。毛利率的下降部分與美元疲軟的外匯影響有關,Sabre 以美元產生收入,但以當地貨幣支付代理商獎勵。
Gross margin was further impacted by a stronger mix of US bookings, which have a lower margin profile relative to other regions. We expect some of this impact to be temporary with higher gross margins in the second half that are roughly in line with the second half of 2024 on a normalized basis. Q2 2025 normalized adjusted EBITDA increased 6% year-on-year with normalized adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 120 basis points. Pro forma free cash flow was negative $2 million, and we ended the quarter with $447 million of cash on the balance sheet.
毛利率進一步受到美國訂單組合強勁的影響,與其他地區相比,美國訂單的利潤率較低。我們預計,部分影響將是暫時的,下半年的毛利率將有所提高,在正常基礎上與 2024 年下半年的毛利率大致持平。2025 年第二季標準化調整後 EBITDA 年成長 6%,標準化調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 120 個基點。預計自由現金流為負 200 萬美元,本季末我們的資產負債表上有 4.47 億美元的現金。
Notably, after the quarter ended, we closed on the sale of Hospitality Solutions on July 3, the proceeds were primarily used to pay down debt, and we added $135 million to the balance sheet that is not included in the Q2 cash position. At the end of July, our cash on the balance sheet exceeded $600 million. Moving to Slide 10.
值得注意的是,本季結束後,我們於 7 月 3 日完成了 Hospitality Solutions 的出售,所得款項主要用於償還債務,並且我們在資產負債表中增加了 1.35 億美元,這筆資金未包含在第二季度現金狀況中。截至7月底,我們的資產負債表上的現金超過6億美元。移至投影片 10。
As Kurt outlined, second quarter results were impacted by lower-than-expected air distribution bookings, leading to financial performance below the expectations we outlined on May 7. Normalized adjusted EBITDA was $127 million in the quarter. Air Distribution bookings were expected to grow low single digits, but were down 1% year-on-year, resulting in a 3 to 4 point shortfall relative to our expectations.
正如庫爾特所概述的,第二季業績受到低於預期的航空分銷預訂量的影響,導致財務業績低於我們 5 月 7 日概述的預期。本季調整後正常化EBITDA為1.27億美元。預計航空分銷訂單量將成長個位數,但年減 1%,與我們的預期相比下降了 3 到 4 個百分點。
Each point of Air Distribution bookings on a quarterly basis equates to approximately $3 million to $4 million of adjusted EBITDA. Based on the second quarter bookings shortfall, and lower gross margins, adjusted EBITDA was approximately $20 million lower than our expectations, which also impacted free cash flow. Free cash flow on a reported basis of negative $240 million includes a $227 million impact related to refinancing activity in the quarter.
每季每個空中配送預訂點相當於調整後的 EBITDA 約 300 萬至 400 萬美元。由於第二季預訂量不足和毛利率下降,調整後的 EBITDA 比我們的預期低約 2,000 萬美元,這也影響了自由現金流。報告顯示自由現金流為負 2.4 億美元,其中包括與本季再融資活動相關的 2.27 億美元影響。
Upon refinancing the 2028 senior secured term loan, the payment in kind, capitalized interest over the prior two years flows through operating cash flow. We have removed this refinancing impact from our pro forma free cash flow calculations.
在對 2028 年優先擔保定期貸款進行再融資時,前兩年的實物支付、資本化利息將流入營運現金流。我們已經從備考自由現金流計算中剔除了這種再融資影響。
Turning to Slide 11 and details about the progress we have made in strengthening our capital structure. During the quarter, we extended our debt maturities. In addition to the $1.6 billion of debt we extended late last year, we refinanced $1.325 billion in the second quarter. We now have nearly 60% of our debt maturing in 2029 and beyond. We also paid down debt in the second quarter, utilizing cash from the balance sheet to remain nearly $200 million of maturities.
轉到第 11 張投影片,詳細介紹我們在加強資本結構方面的進展。本季度,我們延長了債務期限。除了去年年底我們延長的 16 億美元債務外,我們還在第二季再融資了 13.25 億美元。我們現在有近 60% 的債務將在 2029 年及以後到期。我們也在第二季償還了債務,利用資產負債表中的現金來償還近 2 億美元的到期債務。
We Subsequent to quarter close, we utilized approximately $825 million from our sale of Hospitality Solutions to repay a portion of our Term Loan B senior secured facilities and accounts receivable securitization facility. This year, we have paid down over $1 billion of total debt, reducing our expected year-end pro forma net leverage by approximately 50% and as compared to 2023.
在本季結束後,我們利用出售飯店解決方案所得的約 8.25 億美元償還了部分定期貸款 B 優先擔保額度和應收帳款證券化額度。今年,我們已償還了超過 10 億美元的總債務,與 2023 年相比,預計年底淨槓桿率將降低約 50%。
We will continue to be opportunistic in our efforts to further strengthen our balance sheet. On to Slide 12. Following the completion of the first half of the year, and an updated view on GDS industry growth, we have revised our 2025 outlook to incorporate our latest assumptions. We now expect full year Air Distribution bookings growth to be flat to low single digits.
我們將繼續抓住機會,並努力進一步加強我們的資產負債表。轉到投影片 12。隨著上半年的結束以及對 GDS 產業成長的更新看法,我們修改了 2025 年的展望,以納入我們最新的假設。我們現在預計全年航空分銷預訂量成長將持平至個位數。
Our updated financial outlook reflects three potential scenarios based on varying levels of GDS industry bookings growth. While some recent airline commentary has been encouraging, uncertainty remains around the near-term trajectory of GDS industry volumes. Assuming second half 2025 Air Distribution bookings growth of 4%, 7% or 10%, we project full year 2025 Air Distribution volume growth of approximately 1.5%, 2% or 3.5%, respectively.
我們更新後的財務前景反映了基於不同程度的 GDS 產業預訂成長的三種潛在情境。儘管最近一些航空公司的評論令人鼓舞,但 GDS 行業業務量的近期走勢仍然存在不確定性。假設 2025 年下半年航空分銷預訂量成長 4%、7% 或 10%,我們預期 2025 年全年航空分銷量成長分別約為 1.5%、2% 或 3.5%。
On the slide, we have provided our view on revenue, pro forma adjusted EBITDA and pro forma free cash flow based on these three potential volume scenarios. As a reminder, our 2025 guidance treats revenue and pro forma adjusted EBITDA associated with the Hospitality Solutions business as discontinued operations for the full year and all prior periods beginning this quarter.
在投影片中,我們根據這三種潛在的數量情境提供了對收入、預測調整後 EBITDA 和預測自由現金流的看法。提醒一下,我們的 2025 年指引將與飯店解決方案業務相關的收入和備考調整後 EBITDA 視為從本季度開始的全年及所有前期的終止經營業務。
Full year 2025 revenue is expected to grow flat to low single digits, resulting in pro forma adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $530 million to approximately $570 million depending upon the underlying growth in Air Distribution bookings. We have not made any changes to our assumptions for either CapEx or cash interest. We expect pro forma free cash flow to range from approximately $100 million to approximately $140 million, and we expect to end the year with greater than $750 million in cash.
預計 2025 年全年營收將持平至低個位數成長,導致調整後的 EBITDA 在約 5.3 億美元至約 5.7 億美元之間,具體取決於航空分銷預訂量的潛在增長。我們沒有對資本支出或現金利息的假設做出任何改變。我們預計,預計自由現金流將在約 1 億美元至約 1.4 億美元之間,並且我們預計今年年底的現金將超過 7.5 億美元。
Moving to Slide 13 and the third quarter. Again, we are outlining three possible scenarios. These scenarios incorporate our expectations for accelerating bookings from our growth strategies through the remainder of 2025 offset by impacts related to the GDS industry and Sabre mix. For the third quarter, we forecast a range of Air Distribution bookings growth from 2% to 6% which would result in year-on-year revenue growth of low to mid-single digits. We expect pro forma adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $140 million to approximately $150 million.
轉到投影片 13 和第三季。再次,我們概述了三種可能的情況。這些情境反映了我們對 2025 年剩餘時間內透過成長策略加速預訂的預期,但這些預期將被 GDS 產業和 Sabre 組合相關的影響所抵消。對於第三季度,我們預測航空分銷預訂量將成長 2% 至 6%,這將導致年比收入成長低至中等個位數。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 約為 1.4 億美元至 1.5 億美元。
We expect to generate positive free cash flow in the third quarter on a pro forma basis in a range of approximately $40 million to approximately $50 million. In closing, we are making progress on our strategy to generate free cash flow and delever the balance sheet and drive sustainable growth through renovation. We continue to anticipate an acceleration in volumes during the second half of the year with momentum into 2020.
我們預計第三季將產生約 4,000 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元的正自由現金流。最後,我們正在推進我們的策略,以產生自由現金流、降低資產負債表槓桿率並透過革新推動永續成長。我們繼續預計今年下半年銷售將加速成長,並將在 2020 年保持成長動能。
And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.
接線員,請打開熱線來回答問題。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
謝謝。屆時,我們將進行問答環節。(操作員指示)
Josh Baer, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的喬希貝爾。
Josh Baer - Analyst
Josh Baer - Analyst
Yeah, thank you for the question. If I'm looking on Slide 7, in Q1, I see the 4% headwind from Sabre mix and a 4% headwind from GDS industry. And if I look at Q2, it's pretty much the same. So I'm wondering, why was your prior guidance so optimistic as far as the rest of the year?
是的,謝謝你的提問。如果我看幻燈片 7,在第一季度,我會看到來自 Sabre 組合的 4% 逆風和來自 GDS 行業的 4% 逆風。如果我看第二季度,情況幾乎是一樣的。所以我想知道,為什麼您之前對今年剩餘時間的預測如此樂觀?
It looks like sort of now just assuming those trends that you saw through the first five months continue, when that -- I would have thought would have been sort of the base case plus in May, we knew dose was impacting the government, you're calling out government and military, like we already knew that. We knew all the tariff uncertainty is impacting the macro and corporate travel.
現在看起來只是假設你在前五個月看到的趨勢繼續下去,而那——我原本以為會是基本情況,再加上在五月份,我們知道劑量正在影響政府,你在呼籲政府和軍隊,就像我們已經知道的那樣。我們知道所有關稅的不確定性都會影響宏觀和商務旅行。
So just having a hard time, like I see the reconciliation, but I'm having a hard time reconciling what happened like why last guidance was so optimistic and now maybe more realistic, if you can help give some commentary there.
所以只是很難,就像我看到了和解,但我很難調和發生的事情,例如為什麼最後的指導如此樂觀,而現在可能更加現實,如果你能幫忙給出一些評論。
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh, thank you. Important to note that the impact of our growth strategies remains relatively constant to what we previously communicated. But notwithstanding the turbulence in the travel market, based on what we could see in May and before then, we were confident in our path towards achieving the prior full year 2025 outlook.
喬希,謝謝你。值得注意的是,我們的成長策略的影響與我們之前傳達的相比保持相對穩定。儘管旅遊市場動盪,但根據我們 5 月及之前的情況,我們對實現前 2025 年全年預期充滿信心。
Since that time, the market has continued to change. For example, airlines have pared back capacity. And ultimately, as we shared in our prepared comments today, we saw incremental industry weakness in June and into July. The current outlook or scenarios that we have provided today represent our view of where we believe the market is going for the balance of this year.
自那時起,市場不斷變化。例如,航空公司削減了運力。最終,正如我們今天在準備好的評論中所分享的那樣,我們看到 6 月和 7 月行業逐漸疲軟。我們今天提供的當前前景或情景代表了我們對今年剩餘時間市場走向的看法。
Josh Baer - Analyst
Josh Baer - Analyst
Okay. Got it. And so would you say as far as the way that you're -- I mean, I guess the guidance philosophy has changed just now we have like these different scenarios. But I mean, is the middle scenario sort of how you're thinking about like your base case or most likely in the middle? I'm guessing?
好的。知道了。那麼,就您的方式而言,您認為——我的意思是,我想指導理念已經發生了改變,現在我們有了這些不同的場景。但我的意思是,中間情景是否有點像您所考慮的基本情況,或者最有可能處於中間?我猜?
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh, you have not provided a waiting on those three, we think that gives you a range of potential outcomes. The current trading environment would orient more towards the middle, we believe there's upside potential versus that.
喬希,你沒有提供對這三個的等待,我們認為這會為你帶來一系列潛在的結果。當前的貿易環境將更傾向於中間,我們認為與此相比還有上行潛力。
Josh Baer - Analyst
Josh Baer - Analyst
Okay. Got it. All right, thank you. I'll hop back in.
好的。知道了。好的,謝謝。我會跳回去。
Operator
Operator
Jed Kelly, Oppenheimer & Company.
傑德凱利(Jed Kelly),奧本海默公司。
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Hey, great. Thank, thanks for taking my question. Just kind of circling back, is there anything that's changed with the -- I get the uncertainty around the macro. But -- is there anything like technology-wise, it's changed with the GDS rather impact from NDC or more direct bookings that's sort of causing industry bookings to be down? Is there anything you can share there?
嘿,太棒了。謝謝,感謝您回答我的問題。回到正題,有什麼改變嗎?我了解宏觀的不確定性。但是——從技術角度來看,GDS 是否會發生變化,而不是受到 NDC 或更多直接預訂的影響,從而導致行業預訂量下降?能分享些什麼嗎?
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jed. You have to look at two components here. One is the GDS market at large. And as we indicated in our remarks, and I'll just hit back on that, you have a few factors. One is that corporate impact was relatively higher than leisure impact. Corporate books disproportionately through the GDS as compared to leisure, which books more so through airline direct. -- government military is down substantially. That impacts the GDS industry more so than it does for indirect -- or excuse me, direct distribution.
謝謝,傑德。您必須查看這裡的兩個組件。一是整個GDS市場。正如我們在評論中所指出的,我只想反駁這一點,你提出了幾個因素。一是企業影響相對高於休閒影響。企業透過 GDS 預訂的比例過高,而休閒遊客則更多地透過航空公司直銷進行預訂。 ——政府軍方大幅下降。這對 GDS 產業的影響比對間接(或不好意思,是直接分銷)的影響更大。
So I don't believe that those are structural issues. I think those are interim issues. And then Sabre is being disproportionately impacted by the GDS market changes, one, because we have very significant exposure to corporate and TMC to our exposure to government military. Then number three, unfortunately, on a year-to-date basis, markets where we have relatively stronger share have underperformed and markets where we have relatively lighter share have outperformed, and so that has worked against us. over time, that can go either way. That just happens to be going against us right now.
所以我不認為這些都是結構性問題。我認為這些都是暫時的問題。然後,Sabre 受到 GDS 市場變化的不成比例的影響,一方面,因為我們在企業和 TMC 方面的業務與政府軍方業務的接觸非常密切。第三,不幸的是,從年初至今,我們佔有相對較大份額的市場表現不佳,而我們佔有相對較小份額的市場表現優異,這對我們不利。隨著時間的推移,情況可能會有所不同。而現在,情況恰恰對我們不利。
I'll give you some examples. Markets where we have very significant share would include markets like Mexico, Australia, Korea, they're underperforming the global travel in GDS markets right now, markets where we have relatively lower share that are performing better, are markets like the U.K. or Greece or Norway, that will disproportionately benefit our competitors versus us for the time being, but we do not believe there's anything structural here, Jed.
我給你舉幾個例子。我們佔有非常大份額的市場包括墨西哥、澳洲、韓國等市場,這些市場目前在 GDS 市場中的表現不如全球旅遊市場,而我們佔有相對較低份額但表現較好的市場是英國、希臘或挪威等市場,這些市場暫時會給我們的競爭對手帶來不成比例的好處,但我們認為這裡不存在任何結構性因素,傑德。
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Got it. And then as a follow-up, you're seeing some momentum with some of these call it, newer type travel agents, maybe more self-service that are seeing some good growth. However, a large percentage of their bookings are still done through the GDS. So is that an opportunity for you to claw some share back? Or is that a headwind? Can you just kind of help us how we should think about some of these newer types of travel management companies that are growing?
知道了。然後作為後續行動,你會看到一些所謂的新型旅行社的發展勢頭,也許更多的自助服務正在實現良好的成長。然而,他們的很大一部分預訂仍然是透過 GDS 完成的。那麼,這對您來說是一個奪回部分份額的機會嗎?還是這是逆風?您能否幫助我們思考這些正在成長的新型態旅遊管理公司?
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Jed, within the corporate space, we're seeing both A lot of well entrenched or more traditional TMCs are, in fact, performing well. I think GBT was out with results this week and had pretty good numbers. And then there's, as you indicate, new entrants we're well positioned with the new entrants and the predominant share bookings that they produce are through the GDS, and we're capturing our fair share of wallet there. So we believe that's a significant growth opportunity for the industry and for Sabre.
是的。傑德,在企業領域,我們看到很多根深蒂固或更傳統的 TMC 實際上表現良好。我認為 GBT 本週已經公佈了結果,數字相當不錯。然後,正如您所說,對於新進入者,我們處於有利地位,他們的主要股份預訂是透過 GDS 進行的,我們在那裡獲得了相當大的份額。因此我們相信這對產業和 Sabre 來說都是一個重大的成長機會。
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Got it. And then I know you -- I appreciate the back half guidance. As we kind of look throughout the next, call it, 18 months, can you talk about just any operating cost efficiencies you can get from AI or how we should be thinking about the cost structure over the next 18 months? Thanks.
知道了。然後我認識你——我很感謝後半部分的指導。當我們展望未來 18 個月時,您能否談談可以從 AI 中獲得的任何營運成本效率,或者我們應該如何考慮未來 18 個月的成本結構?謝謝。
Michael Randolfi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Randolfi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Thanks for the question, Jed. And first, let me just highlight, if you look over the last two to three years. And you look at the cost reductions we've done, plus the combination of our tech transformation initiatives, collectively, that's reduced our annual run rate expenses by somewhere around the range of $400 million. What I would tell you is, going forward, we're going to be very mindful of expenses, as I look at our key expense lines, we talked about this on our last earnings call, as I look at technology expenses, for example, we have the benefit of our tech transformation initiative.
是的。謝謝你的提問,傑德。首先,讓我強調一下,如果你回顧一下過去兩三年的情況。看看我們所做的成本削減,加上我們的技術轉型舉措,總共將我們的年度運行費用減少了約 4 億美元。我想告訴你們的是,展望未來,我們將非常注意開支,當我查看我們的主要開支項目時,我們在上次收益電話會議上談到了這一點,例如,當我查看技術開支時,我們會受益於我們的技術轉型計劃。
We articulated this year, there'd be roughly $100 million benefit that wouldn't be the net benefit of the line because there's also some investment for growth strategies as well as higher hosting costs with the volumes. But net-net, technology costs still should be down pretty measurably for the year.
我們今年明確表示,大約會有 1 億美元的收益,但這不會是該線路的淨收益,因為還有一些用於成長策略的投資以及更高的託管成本。但總體而言,今年的技術成本仍將大幅下降。
And I would just say, our original expectations on SG&A were that we'd be up slightly. I would say now it's more likely we're down slightly. We've been just very, very measured on incremental costs coming into the organization and actually would expect the cost to be -- start to bend a little lower in the third and fourth quarter. with that, as you think to 2026, look, we're going to continue to maintain very strong cost discipline. And our goal would be as we grow in distribution bookings and you can tell from the guidance, we expect to go into 2026 with good momentum, we'd look for a good portion of that gross profit to fall to the bottom line as a result of the cost discipline that we continue to have.
我只想說,我們最初對銷售、一般和行政費用的預期是會略有上升。我想說,現在更有可能的是,我們的業績略有下降。我們一直非常謹慎地衡量進入組織的增量成本,實際上我們預計成本將在第三季和第四季開始略微下降。因此,正如你所想到的 2026 年,我們將繼續保持非常嚴格的成本紀律。我們的目標是,隨著分銷訂單的成長,您可以從指引中看到,我們預計 2026 年將保持良好勢頭,我們希望透過持續的成本控制,將很大一部分毛利降至底線。
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Jed Kelly - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Deepak Mathivanan, Cantor Fitzgerald.
迪帕克·馬蒂瓦南,坎托·菲茨杰拉德。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. This is Jack on for Deepak. I had a question on the multisource platform, the strategy there. Can you kind of talk about the progress you're seeing in signing more of these NDC agreements? I think the number was 38 live this quarter, just similar to last quarter. kind of what's the strategy to continue to bring supply online there? And then second, like kind of related, I think you mentioned a six-month delay in the multisource LCC solution. Can you just talk a little bit more about what's driving that delay? Thanks.
嘿夥計們,謝謝你們回答我的問題。這是傑克 (Jack) 為迪帕克 (Deepak) 表演的。我對多源平台及其策略有疑問。您能否談談在簽署更多 NDC 協議方面取得的進展?我認為本季的線上數量是 38 個,與上一季相似。繼續在那裡提供供應的策略是什麼?其次,類似地,我認為您提到了多源 LCC 解決方案延遲了六個月。您能否再多談一下造成這種延遲的原因?謝謝。
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jack. First, with respect to NDC, I think among our competitive set, we have the most fulsome amount of NDC content in our portfolio. So we have 38 live NDC, we have a number of other signed agreements that are in the development pipeline, and we'll continue to meet the demand of carriers to bring that demand online. Importantly, when you look at our solution, it's not just connecting nodes to the network, we've built a lot of functionality that faces the buyer or the travel agency around shopping, cashing, workflow integration, to make it as seamless as possible regardless of the source of content, whether it's NDC or fact or different types of LCC connectivity.
謝謝,傑克。首先,關於 NDC,我認為在我們的競爭對手中,我們的產品組合中擁有最豐富的 NDC 內容。因此,我們擁有 38 個即時 NDC,還有許多其他已簽署的協議正在開發中,我們將繼續滿足營運商的需求,以實現這一需求。重要的是,當您查看我們的解決方案時,它不僅僅是將節點連接到網絡,我們還構建了許多面向買家或旅行社的功能,包括購物、兌現、工作流程集成,以使其盡可能無縫,無論內容來源如何,無論是 NDC 還是事實或不同類型的 LCC 連接。
I believe that our solution, which we call our multisource offering is the best in the marketplace today. It's one of the primary reasons we're having great success in signing and implementing new business on the agency side. Regarding the multisource opportunity, that's really thinking about the world beyond artifact and NDC while we have 150-plus low-cost carriers in the Sabre distribution system today, what we aim to do there, as I've talked about previously, is to add a long tail of LCC content that is not available in any of the GDS, the proxy for that would be Travelfusion, which is a Chinese company.
我相信我們的解決方案(我們稱之為多源產品)是當今市場上最好的。這是我們在代理商方面簽署和實施新業務方面取得巨大成功的主要原因之一。關於多源機會,這實際上是在考慮超越人工製品和 NDC 的世界,而我們目前在 Sabre 分銷系統中擁有 150 多家低成本航空公司,正如我之前談到的,我們的目標是添加任何 GDS 中都沒有的 LCC 長尾內容,而 Travelfusion 是一家中國公司。
And what we've done basically is develop a solution that seamlessly integrates that content with our defect and NDC content. We think it will be the most efficient way for agencies or buyers to access that type of inventory going forward. The six-month delay is simply an execution delay on our side from a tech standpoint. We're doing a lot of things to reinvent and transform this business. And I think overall, I'd give us a green light on our product execution. This is one where we're just a bit behind on what we anticipated six months or three months ago.
我們所做的基本上是開發一個解決方案,將該內容與我們的缺陷和 NDC 內容無縫整合。我們認為這將是未來代理商或買家獲取此類庫存的最有效方式。從技術角度來看,六個月的延遲只是我們執行上的延遲。我們正在做很多事情來重塑和改變這個業務。我認為總體而言,我會對我們的產品執行綠燈。這與六個月或三個月前的預期相比略有落後。
Josh Baer - Analyst
Josh Baer - Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Alex Irving, Bernstein.
亞歷克斯歐文、伯恩斯坦。
Alex Irving - Analyst
Alex Irving - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon, gentlemen. You say you expect the reduction in bookings to be transitory for the underlying market. What gives you the confidence that it is transitory? And how much of that 9% underlying decline for GDS industry and your mix would you expect to reverse in 2026, please?
嗨,先生們,下午好。您說您預計預訂量的減少對於基礎市場來說只是暫時的。是什麼讓您確信它是暫時的?您預計到 2026 年,GDS 產業和您的產品組合的 9% 潛在下滑幅度會逆轉多少?
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thank you very much, Alex. And first of all, let me -- we have not provided 2026 guidance per se. We have very good line of sight to the ramp that we showed on Slide number 7, which was the top or the black bar, which shows that we project the incremental impact of new business that we're bringing on to be 13 points in Q3, 19 points in Q4.
是的。非常感謝,亞歷克斯。首先,我們本身並沒有提供 2026 年的指導。我們對幻燈片 7 上顯示的坡道有很好的視線,這是頂部或黑色條,顯示我們預計我們帶來的新業務的增量影響在第三季度為 13 點,在第四季度為 19 點。
Our exit rate coming out of July was above 10% or above 10 points. So we've got pretty good visibility and line of sight towards that outcome. What is more uncertain for the balance of the year is, as you referenced, the GDS marketplace and the relative impact to Sabre. Assuming a flattish GDS market beyond 2025, we would project our 2026 Air Distribution volume growth to be high single digit, simply based on the realization of what we're already executing against.
我們七月的退出率超過了 10% 或 10 個百分點。因此,我們對這結果有相當好的預見性和視線。正如您所提到的,今年剩餘時間更不確定的是 GDS 市場及其對 Sabre 的相對影響。假設 2025 年後 GDS 市場將趨於平穩,我們預計 2026 年航空分銷量成長率將達到高個位數,這僅基於我們已經執行的目標的實現。
And coming back to your question with respect to the base business. The GDS market is down basically 300 to 400 basis points year-on-year. Again, that's largely attributable to the impact on what's down proportionately being on corporate travel and military and government travel. Those two sectors book almost entirely or exclusively through the GDS, whereas leisure books predominantly through supplier direct far less in the intermediary channel. And so I think what you have is an industry mix issue I do not believe that's structural. I think corporate travel is a healthy sector and will perform over time. And military and government is due to a lot of the turbulence you've seen year-to-date.
回到你關於基礎業務的問題。GDS市場年比基本下降了300至400個基點。再一次,這在很大程度上歸因於商務旅行、軍事和政府旅行比例下降的影響。這兩個行業的預訂幾乎全部或專門透過 GDS 進行,而休閒產業的預訂主要透過供應商直接進行,透過中介管道的預訂則少得多。因此我認為你們面臨的是產業組合問題,我不認為這是結構性問題。我認為商務旅行是一個健康的行業,並且會隨著時間的推移而表現良好。而軍事和政府則是造成今年迄今諸多動盪的原因。
The Sabre impact specifically is because of our higher proportional exposure, again to corporate travel, where we have a significant majority portion of TMC bookings globally as well as military and government. And then as I mentioned, our relative geographic mix is working against us now. I don't believe that's structural. I think that's transitory based on what you're seeing around the world.
Sabre 的影響具體來說是由於我們在商務旅行方面有更高的比例曝光,我們在全球 TMC 預訂以及軍隊和政府預訂中佔有相當大的份額。正如我所提到的,我們的相對地理組合現在對我們不利。我不相信這是結構性的。根據世界各地所見的情況,我認為這只是暫時的。
If you look at the aviation industry, and we often track the health of the aviation industry, capacity growth is down very low single digit sort of nominal growth. The airlines have paired back capacity intelligently and their yield environment seems a bit more settled today than it was 90 days ago. Remember that we don't benefit from that.
如果你觀察航空業,我們經常追蹤航空業的健康狀況,你會發現運力成長下降到了非常低的個位數名目成長率。航空公司已明智地削減了運力,目前其收益環境似乎比 90 天前更加穩定。請記住,我們不會從中受益。
So when you hear the airlines saying things are improving, they're really improving relative to the prior yield expectations, volumes are roughly where they thought they would be whenever almost freak out maybe 90 days ago. So I look at the fact that the GDS is down and Sabre is down in our base before the implementation of new business, I certainly don't like that, but I do not think that, that is structural in nature. I think it is based on the relative mix of channel and the relative geographic mix.
因此,當您聽到航空公司說情況正在好轉時,相對於先前的收益預期,他們的收益確實在改善,運量大致處於他們在 90 天前幾乎崩潰時所認為的水平。因此,我看到在實施新業務之前,GDS 和 Sabre 在我們的基礎上處於下滑狀態,我當然不喜歡這樣,但我不認為這是結構性的。我認為這是基於通路的相對組合和相對地理組合。
Alex Irving - Analyst
Alex Irving - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Victor Cheng, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Victor Cheng。
Victor Cheng - Analyst
Victor Cheng - Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions. If I start with NDC, obviously, you have 38 live connections now. Why have we not seen a higher mix of NDC growth, I think some of your peers talk about very strong mix in there relative to maybe you -- so you can -- I know you have a higher corporate mix and all that, but still just trying to make sense of when should we expect NDC volumes to be growing a bit faster from your end?
感謝您回答我的問題。如果我從 NDC 開始,顯然,您現在有 38 個即時連線。為什麼我們沒有看到更高的 NDC 增長組合,我認為您的一些同行談到了相對於您的非常強勁的組合 - 所以您可以 - 我知道您的企業組合更高等等,但仍然只是想弄清楚我們什麼時候應該預期您的 NDC 數量會增長得更快一些?
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thank you very much, Victor. I'll take that. So first of all, NDC as a proportion of our distribution for us remains low single digit as a percentage. If you compare that against our largest competitor, and I think they're quoting a number than that, we believe that is almost entirely attributable to the reintermediation of certain former Direct Connect NDC volumes by certain large -- one or two large OTAs that have now put that volume through that competitor of ours.
是的。非常感謝,維克多。我會接受的。首先,NDC 在我們的分銷中所佔的比例仍然保持在較低的個位數百分比。如果將其與我們最大的競爭對手進行比較,我認為他們引用的數字要比這高,我們認為這幾乎完全歸因於某些大型 OTA 對某些以前的 Direct Connect NDC 交易量的重新中介——一兩家大型 OTA 現在已將這些交易量通過我們的競爭對手進行處理。
When you normalize in, say, in the brick-and-mortar space and in the TMC space, we believe their NDC adoption is in the same range as ours. So we do expect going forward that NDC will scale and scale very well. It's not going to be the majority portion of our booking anytime in the near future, but it's becoming an ever more important part of the distribution landscape.
當你在實體空間和 TMC 空間中實現正常化時,我們相信他們的 NDC 採用率與我們處於同一範圍內。因此,我們確實預計未來 NDC 將會擴大規模,並且擴大得非常好。在不久的將來,它不會成為我們預訂的主要部分,但它將成為分銷領域中越來越重要的一部分。
Victor Cheng - Analyst
Victor Cheng - Analyst
Got it. And if I look at the GDS industry, I think you said it's down 300 bps to 400 bps year-on-year in the first half. And if I look at what your peers are reporting as well, I struggle a bit to reconcile the numbers. I'm not sure what piece am I missing here if you can set some light on that as well?
知道了。如果我看一下 GDS 行業,我想您說過,上半年該行業同比下降了 300 個基點到 400 個基點。如果我看一下你的同儕所報告的內容,我會很難核對這些數字。我不確定我在這裡遺漏了什麼,您是否也可以對此進行一些說明?
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. As we've indicated before, our visibility to market does not include -- not all of our competitors disclose their NDC volumes. So when you look at effect and our assumption of NDC. That's where we get to being down 300 basis points to 400 basis points on a year-to-date basis. Why did we trade where we traded at negative 1% versus, I think Amadeus came out slightly positive.
當然。正如我們之前所指出的,我們的市場知名度並不包括——並非所有競爭對手都披露他們的 NDC 數量。因此,當您查看效果和我們對 NDC 的假設時。這就是今年迄今下降 300 個基點至 400 個基點的原因。為什麼我們的交易價格為負 1%,而我認為 Amadeus 的交易價格略為正值。
Two things. One is they have, as I indicated, we believe the reintermediation of certain Expedia NDC direct connect volumes and perhaps one other OTA. And then number two, the geographic and the channel mix that I talked about, actually both would work in favor of Amadeus because they are disproportionately much higher leisure than corporate shop and their footprint benefits inversely to ours.
兩件事。一是,正如我所指出的,我們相信某些 Expedia NDC 直接連接量以及可能另一個 OTA 的重新中介化。然後,第二點,我談到的地理和管道組合,實際上兩者都對 Amadeus 有利,因為它們的休閒性遠高於企業商店,而且它們的足跡效益與我們相反。
Victor Cheng - Analyst
Victor Cheng - Analyst
I got it. And if I can squeeze in my last question on revenue per booking, I think your peer seem to manage grow a bit stronger on renewals and pricing effects. Just wondering to what extent do you see that happening or the potential of that happening on your end as well as we go into H2?
我得到了它。如果我可以擠出最後一個問題問您每次預訂的收入,我認為您的同行似乎在續約和定價效應方面取得了一些增長。我只是想知道,當我們進入 H2 時,您在多大程度上認為這種情況會發生,或者在您看來發生這種情況的可能性有多大?
Michael Randolfi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Randolfi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. What I would say is we look at our average booking fee, I would expect it to perform similarly as it has generally so far this year. I would expect -- if you look at booking fee in Q3, Q4, I would expect it to be pretty close to what it was in Q3 and Q4 last year. And if I take that a little further to gross margin, I talked a little bit about on the call, I would expect the gross margin to improve slightly in the second half of the year and being nearly in line with Q3 and Q4 last year.
是的。我想說的是,我們看看我們的平均預訂費,我預計它的表現將與今年迄今為止的整體表現相似。我預計——如果你看一下第三季和第四季的預訂費,我預計它會非常接近去年第三季和第四季的水平。如果我進一步討論毛利率,我在電話會議上談到了這一點,我預計今年下半年毛利率將略有提高,幾乎與去年第三季和第四季持平。
Victor Cheng - Analyst
Victor Cheng - Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Kurt Ekert for closing remarks.
問答環節到此結束。現在我想請 Kurt Ekert 致最後總結。
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kurt Ekert - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for your participation today. We look forward to updating you in forward quarters, and we're focused on running a great business here at Sabre. Thank you.
謝謝大家,也謝謝大家今天的參與。我們期待在未來幾季向您更新最新情況,我們專注於在 Sabre 經營出色的業務。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。