Rayonier Inc (RYN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome, and thank you for joining Rayonier's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    歡迎您,感謝您參加 Rayonier 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。(操作員指示)今天的會議正在錄音。(操作員指令)

  • Now, I will turn the meeting over to Mr. Collin Mings, Vice President, Capital Markets and Strategic Planning.

    現在,我將會議交給資本市場和策略規劃副總裁 Collin Mings 先生。

  • Collin Mings - Vice President, Capital Markets and Strategic Planning

    Collin Mings - Vice President, Capital Markets and Strategic Planning

  • Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Rayonier's investor teleconference covering fourth-quarter earnings. Our earnings statements and financial supplement were released yesterday afternoon and are available on our website at rayonier.com.

    謝謝,早安。歡迎參加 Rayonier 的第四季財報投資者電話會議。我們的收益報表和財務補充報告已於昨天下午發布,可在我們的網站 rayonier.com 上查閱。

  • I would like to remind you that in these presentations, we include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities law. Our earnings release and forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC, list some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements we may make. They are also referenced on page 2 of our financial supplement.

    我想提醒您,在這些演示中,我們包含了根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款所做的前瞻性陳述。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和 10-K 表和 10-Q 表列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們可能做出的前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素。我們的財務增刊第 2 頁也提到了它們。

  • Throughout these presentations, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to the nearest GAAP measures in our earnings release and supplemental materials.

    在這些演示過程中,我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標在我們的收益報告和補充資料中定義並根據最接近的 GAAP 指標進行調整。

  • With that, let's start our teleconference with opening comments from Mark McHugh, our President and CEO. Mark?

    現在,讓我們以總裁兼執行長馬克·麥克休 (Mark McHugh) 的開場白開始我們的電話會議。標記?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Collin. Good morning, everyone. First, I'll make some high-level comments before turning it over to April Tice, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, to review our consolidated financial results. Then Doug Long, Executive Vice President and Chief Resource Officer, will comment on our US and New Zealand timber results. And following the review of our Timber segments, April will discuss our Real estate results and our outlook for 2025.

    謝謝,科林。大家早安。首先,我將發表一些高層評論,然後將其交給資深副總裁兼財務長 April Tice 來審查我們的合併財務結果。然後,執行副總裁兼首席資源長Doug Long 將對我們的美國和紐西蘭木材業績進行評論。在回顧我們的木材部門之後,April 將討論我們的房地產業績和 2025 年的展望。

  • We were pleased to finish 2024 with better-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results, which allowed us to deliver full-year adjusted EBITDA of $299 million, roughly 3% above the high end of our prior guidance range and slightly above the prior year. Full-year pro forma net income was $70 million or $0.47 per share. These full-year results demonstrate our resilience and nimble execution amid persistent market headwinds.

    我們很高興 2024 年第四季的財務表現優於預期,這使我們能夠實現全年調整後的 EBITDA 2.99 億美元,比我們之前預期範圍的高端高出約 3%,略高於上一年。全年預計淨收入為 7,000 萬美元,即每股 0.47 美元。這些全年業績證明了我們在持續的市場逆風中表現出的韌性和靈活的執行力。

  • In the fourth quarter, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $115 million and pro forma net income of $41 million or $0.27 per share. The 23% increase in adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year quarter was driven primarily by significantly improved results in our Real Estate and New Zealand Timber segment.

    第四季度,我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.15 億美元,預計淨收入為 4,100 萬美元,即每股 0.27 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 與去年同期相比成長了 23%,這主要得益於我們的房地產和紐西蘭木材部門的業績大幅改善。

  • Our Real Estate segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $63 million, up $10 million from the prior year period. The increased contribution from our Real Estate business was bolstered by an extraordinarily strong weighted average price per acre of roughly $7,200, excluding improved development and large dispositions, demonstrating our team's ability to optimize the value of our portfolio by generating significant HBU premiums above timberland value.

    我們房地產部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,300 萬美元,比去年同期增加 1,000 萬美元。我們房地產業務貢獻的增加得益於每英畝約 7,200 美元的強勁加權平均價格(不包括改進的開發和大規模處置),這表明我們的團隊能夠透過產生高於林地價值的顯著 HBU 溢價來優化我們投資組合的價值。

  • Shifting to our Timber segment operating results. Our Southern Timber segment generated fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $35 million, up modestly from the prior year period. A significantly higher non-timber income was largely offset by a 3% decline in harvest volumes and 15% lower weighted average net stumpage realizations. The decline in stumpage prices was driven in large part by the impact of salvage volume on the market throughout the quarter following Hurricane Helene.

    轉向我們的木材部門經營業績。我們南方木材部門第四季的調整後 EBITDA 為 3,500 萬美元,較去年同期略有成長。非木材收入的大幅增加在很大程度上被採伐量下降 3% 和加權平均淨木材實現量下降 15% 所抵消。木材價格的下跌很大程度上是受到颶風海倫過後整個季度殘材量對市場的影響。

  • In our Pacific Northwest Timber segment, fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $6 million was flat versus the prior year quarter as a 3% decrease in harvest volumes and a 9% decrease in average delivered log prices were largely offset by lower cost and higher non-timber income.

    在我們的太平洋西北木材部門,第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 600 萬美元,與去年同期持平,因為採伐量下降 3% 和平均交付原木價格下降 9% 在很大程度上被成本下降和非木材收入增加所抵消。

  • Turning to our New Zealand Timber segment. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $20 million increased $8 million versus the prior year quarter. The increase in adjusted EBITDA was driven by favorable foreign exchange impacts, higher volume, higher net stumpage realizations, and lower costs, partially offset by lower carbon credit sales.

    轉向我們的紐西蘭木材部分。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,000 萬美元,較去年同期增加 800 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 的成長主要得益於有利的外匯影響、更高的銷售量、更高的淨木材實現量和更低的成本,但碳信用額銷售額的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

  • In addition to the strong finish to the year operationally, we successfully closed on $495 million of previously announced large dispositions, totaling approximately 200,000 acres during the fourth quarter. As discussed on our November earnings call, these transactions have allowed us to reduce leverage and return capital to shareholders while also generating accretion to CAD per share.

    除了今年營運表現強勁之外,我們還在第四季度成功完成了先前宣布的價值 4.95 億美元的大規模處置,總計約 20 萬英畝。正如我們在 11 月收益電話會議上所討論的那樣,這些交易使我們能夠降低槓桿率並向股東返還資本,同時也為每股加元帶來增值。

  • To date, we've now closed on roughly $737 million of dispositions, approximately 74% of our original $1 billion target, which has allowed us to reduce net leverage to below 3 times and return over $110 million of capital to shareholders in the form of cash, special dividends, and share repurchases, including $15 million of share repurchases in the fourth quarter.

    到目前為止,我們已完成約 7.37 億美元的處置,約占我們最初 10 億美元目標的 74%,這使我們能夠將淨槓桿率降低至 3 倍以下,並以現金、特別股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還超過 1.1 億美元的資本,其中包括第四季度的 1500 萬美元股票回購。

  • Turning to our outlook for 2025. As April will discuss in greater detail later in the call, we are providing full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $270 million to $300 million. The slight decline at the midpoint relative to 2024 adjusted EBITDA reflects the dispositions completed in the fourth quarter as well as modestly lower expectations in our Real Estate segment following the extraordinarily strong results realized last year.

    展望 2025 年。正如 April 稍後將在電話會議中詳細討論的那樣,我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.7 億美元至 3 億美元。相對於 2024 年調整後的 EBITDA,中間點略有下降,反映了第四季度完成的處置,以及繼去年實現異常強勁的業績後,我們房地產部門的預期略有下降。

  • Overall, as we move into the new year, we are cautiously optimistic that timber prices will gradually improve along with end market demand. In addition, we expect another strong contribution from our real estate platform this year, given the continued favorable demand trends for our rural HBU and development properties.

    總體而言,隨著新的一年的到來,我們謹慎樂觀地認為木材價格將隨著終端市場需求而逐步回升。此外,鑑於我們農村 HBU 和開發物業的需求趨勢持續良好,我們預計今年我們的房地產平台將繼續做出強勁貢獻。

  • Lastly, we remain encouraged by the pipeline of opportunities that continue to build on the land-based solutions front, especially as it relates to solar and carbon capture and storage, which we expect will drive meaningful cash flow growth in the coming years.

    最後,我們仍然對陸基解決方案領域不斷湧現的機會感到鼓舞,特別是與太陽能和碳捕獲與儲存相關的機遇,我們預計這些機會將在未來幾年推動有意義的現金流成長。

  • With that, let me turn it over to April for more details on our fourth-quarter financial results.

    接下來,請允許我將時間交給 April,以便我們了解有關第四季度財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

  • April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Mark. Moving to the financial highlights on page 5 of the supplement. For the fourth quarter, sales totaled $726 million, while operating income was $346 million, and net income attributable to Rayonier was $327 million or $2.15 per share.

    謝謝,馬克。前往補充文件第 5 頁的財務要點。第四季度,銷售總額為 7.26 億美元,營業收入為 3.46 億美元,歸屬於 Rayonier 的淨收入為 3.27 億美元,即每股 2.15 美元。

  • On a pro forma basis, net income was $41 million or $0.27 per share. Pro forma items in the fourth quarter included $291 million of income from large dispositions, a $1.6 million gain from a terminated cash flow hedge, $1.6 million of costs associated with legal settlements and $1.1 million of restructuring charges. Our adjusted EBITDA was $115 million in the fourth quarter, up from $94 million in the prior year period.

    根據預測,淨收入為 4,100 萬美元,即每股 0.27 美元。第四季的預測項目包括來自大額處置的收入 2.91 億美元、來自終止現金流對沖的收益 160 萬美元、與法律和解相關的成本 160 萬美元以及重組費用 110 萬美元。我們第四季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.15 億美元,高於去年同期的 9,400 萬美元。

  • Moving on to capital resources and liquidity at the bottom of page 5. Our cash available for distribution, or CAD, for the year was $184 million versus $164 million in the prior year period. The increase was driven by higher adjusted EBITDA, lower net cash interest paid, and lower capital expenditures, partially offset by slightly higher cash taxes paid. A reconciliation of CAD to cash provided by operating activities and other GAAP measures is provided on page 8 of the financial supplement.

    繼續討論第 5 頁底部的資本資源和流動性。我們今年可供分配的現金(CAD)為 1.84 億美元,去年同期為 1.64 億美元。成長的主要原因是調整後 EBITDA 提高、淨現金利息支付降低以及資本支出降低,但被小幅上漲的現金稅款部分抵消。財務補充文件第 8 頁提供了加幣與經營活動提供的現金以及其他 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

  • As a result of the taxable gains arising from the timberland dispositions completed during the fourth quarter, we declared a $1.80 per share special dividend in early December, which was paid on January 30 in a combination of cash and shares. In aggregate, the special dividend resulted in $68 million of cash and 7.7 million common shares and OP units being distributed following year end.

    由於第四季度完成的林地處置產生了應稅收益,我們於 12 月初宣布派發每股 1.80 美元的特別股息,並於 1 月 30 日以現金和股票支付。總體而言,特別股息導致年底分配了 6,800 萬美元現金和 770 萬股普通股和 OP 單位。

  • For modeling purposes, we now have approximately 156.1 million shares and 2.1 million OP units outstanding following the special dividend. By issuing shares to meet, part of our REIT taxable income distribution requirement, we have retained significant flexibility to further reduce debt, execute on share repurchases, or fund other future capital allocation priorities.

    為了建模目的,我們現在在特別股息後擁有約 1.561 億股和 210 萬 OP 單位的流通股。透過發行股票來滿足部分房地產投資信託應稅收入分配要求,我們保留了很大的靈活性,可以進一步減少債務、執行股票回購或為其他未來資本配置重點提供資金。

  • To this end, we continue to believe that share repurchases represent a compelling use of capital at the current stock price.

    為此,我們仍然相信,在當前股價下,股票回購代表著令人信服的資本使用方式。

  • During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 488,000 shares at an average price of roughly $30 per share. Notably, our fourth-quarter share repurchases occurred prior to the ex-dividend date with respect to $1.80 per share special dividend. In December, our Board approved a new $300 million share repurchase program, which affords us significant capacity to act opportunistically as it relates to share repurchases moving forward.

    第四季度,我們以平均每股約 30 美元的價格回購了 488,000 股。值得注意的是,我們第四季的股票回購發生在除息日之前,每股特別股利為 1.80 美元。12 月份,我們的董事會批准了一項新的 3 億美元股票回購計劃,這為我們在未來的股票回購中採取機會行動提供了巨大的能力。

  • Proceeds from our disposition plan have also allowed us to meaningfully reduce leverage. After paying off a total of $190 million of debt during the quarter, we closed the fourth quarter with $323 million of cash and roughly $1.1 billion of debt. Our net debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA was approximately 2.6 times at quarter end or 2.9 times pro forma for the cash component of the special dividend that we paid last week.

    我們的處置計劃所得收益也使我們能夠大幅降低槓桿率。在本季償還了總計 1.9 億美元的債務後,我們在第四季結束時持有 3.23 億美元現金和約 11 億美元的債務。截至季末,我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 比率約為 2.6 倍,或為我們上週支付的特別股息的現金部分預測的 2.9 倍。

  • At quarter end, our weighted average cost of debt was approximately 2.7% and the weighted average maturity on our debt portfolio was approximately four years, with no significant debt maturities until 2026. Our net debt to enterprise value based on our closing stock price at the end of the quarter was 17%.

    截至季末,我們的加權平均債務成本約為 2.7%,債務組合的加權平均期限約為四年,且在 2026 年之前沒有重大債務到期。根據本季末的收盤價計算,我們的淨債務與企業價值之比為 17%。

  • I will also note that we declared our first-quarter dividend yesterday after the market closed. The 4.4% adjustment in the quarterly dividend to $0.2725 per share from $0.285 per share, reflects the 5.1% increase in shares and units outstanding as a result of the recent special dividend, and is consistent with our previous communications regarding its anticipated impact on our ordinarily quarterly dividend.

    我還要指出的是,我們昨天在市場收盤後宣布了第一季股息。季度股息從每股 0.285 美元調整為每股 0.2725 美元,調整幅度為 4.4%,反映了近期特別股息導致的流通股數和單位數增加 5.1%,與我們之前就其對我們通常的季度股息的預期影響所傳達的信息一致。

  • I'll turn now the call over to Doug to provide a more detailed review of our timber results.

    現在我將把電話轉給 Doug,以便更詳細地審查我們的木材結果。

  • Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

    Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

  • Thanks, April. Let's start on page 9 with our Southern Timber segment. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of $35 million was above the prior year quarter as higher non-timber revenue and lower costs more than offset lower harvest volumes and net stumpage realizations.

    謝謝,April。讓我們從第 9 頁的“南方木材”部分開始。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,500 萬美元,高於去年同期,因為非木材收入的增加和成本的降低超過了採伐量和淨伐木實現量的下降。

  • Total harvest volumes fell 3% versus the prior year quarter due to the disposition of our Oklahoma acreage, as well as production constraints resulting from some contractors temporarily shifting to salvage operations on properties impacted by Hurricane Helene.

    由於我們處置了俄克拉荷馬州的土地,以及一些承包商暫時轉向對受颶風海倫影響的土地進行打撈作業而導致的生產限制,總採伐量與去年同期相比下降了 3%。

  • Meanwhile, non-timber revenue increased $7 million versus prior year period, driven by growth in our Land-Based Solutions business and higher pipeline easement revenues. Average sawlog stumpage pricing was $25 per ton, a 14% decrease compared to the prior year period due to a less favorable geographic mix and the availability of low-priced salvage timber in the Atlantic region.

    同時,非木材收入較去年同期增加了 700 萬美元,這得益於陸基解決方案業務的成長和管道地役權收入的增加。鋸木立木的平均價格為每噸 25 美元,比去年同期下降了 14%,因為地理分佈較不利,且大西洋地區可獲得低價回收木材。

  • Oakwood net stumpage pricing was 9% lower than the prior year quarter at roughly $16 per ton, also due to geographic mix and availability of salvage volume. Overall, weighted average stumpage prices in the fourth quarter decreased 15% versus the prior year quarter to roughly $19 per ton.

    Oakwood 淨立木價格比去年同期下降 9%,約為每噸 16 美元,這也歸因於地理分佈和殘材量的可用性。整體來看,第四季加權平均木材價格較去年同期下降 15% 至約每噸 19 美元。

  • In gray markets, green log demand was relatively soft in the Atlantic region during the quarter with mills shifting their procurement to salvage logs. In our golf markets, dry weather conditions led to ample supply which also weighed on pricing. Encouragingly, Southern Yellow Pine lumber prices ended the fourth quarter on an upward trend and currently sit near their highest levels in three quarters.

    在灰色市場,本季大西洋地區的綠色原木需求相對疲軟,因為工廠將採購轉向回​​收原木。在我們的高爾夫市場,乾燥的天氣條件導致供應充足,這也對價格造成影響。令人鼓舞的是,南方黃松木材價格在第四季度呈上升趨勢,目前接近三個季度以來的最高水準。

  • Overall, we believe the outlook for gray markets will improve as Southern Yellow Pine lumber continues to gain share in the overall North American market and the availability of salvage volume declines in the Atlantic region.

    總體而言,我們相信灰色市場的前景將會改善,因為南方黃松木材在整個北美市場的份額繼續增加,而且大西洋地區的廢料供應量減少。

  • Shifting to pulpwood. While we have been encouraged by sustained improvements in end market demand for our pulp customers, ample supply from hurricane salvage operations in the Atlantic region and dry ground conditions in the Gulf region led to elevated mill inventories and quota implementations during the quarter, which weighed on pulpwood prices.

    轉向紙漿木材。雖然我們對紙漿客戶終端市場需求持續改善感到鼓舞,但大西洋地區颶風打撈作業帶來的充足供應和墨西哥灣地區乾燥的地面條件導致本季度工廠庫存和配額執行增加,這對紙漿木材價格造成壓力。

  • As it relates to salvage operations, the direct impact to our portfolio on the most hurricane season was relatively minor, and our salvage operations are now largely complete. However, the availability of salvage volume in our Atlantic markets has certainly been a headwind over the last several months, and we expect that this dynamic will likely persist through the first half of 2025 which may continue to weigh on pricing.

    就打撈作業而言,大多數颶風季節對我們的投資組合的直接影響相對較小,我們的打撈作業現已基本完成。然而,過去幾個月來,大西洋市場的打撈量供應無疑一直是一大阻力,我們預計這種動態可能會持續到 2025 年上半年,這可能會繼續對定價造成壓力。

  • Moving to our Pacific Northwest Timber segment on page 10. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $6 million was in line with the prior year quarter as lower net stumpage realizations and harvest volumes were largely offset by lower costs and higher non-timber income.

    請前往第 10 頁的太平洋西北木材部分。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 600 萬美元,與去年同期持平,因為淨伐木實現量和採伐量的下降在很大程度上被成本的降低和非木材收入的增加所抵消。

  • Total harvest volumes decreased 3% in the fourth quarter as compared to the prior year period, reflecting the impact of our recent dispositions in Washington. At $89 per ton, average delivered domestic sawlog pricing in the fourth quarter decreased 5% from the prior year period, due to a combination of weaker demand from lumber mills and an unfavorable product mix as a higher proportion of chip-n-saw was harvested in the current year period.

    與去年同期相比,第四季度的總採伐量下降了 3%,反映了我們最近在華盛頓的處置行為的影響。第四季度,國內鋸木平均交貨價格為每噸 89 美元,較去年同期下降 5%,原因是木材廠需求疲軟,以及今年採伐的切片鋸比例較高導致產品結構不利。

  • Meanwhile, at $30 per ton, pulpwood pricing was up 4% versus the prior year quarter. While demand for both domestic lumber mills and export markets remained soft in Pacific Northwest during the fourth quarter, as we look toward 2025, there are indications that market conditions are gradually improving. To this end, lumber prices have begun to show positive momentum with producers in the region well positioned to benefit from potential further reductions in Western SPF supply from Canadian producers.

    同時,紙漿木材價格為每噸 30 美元,較去年同期上漲 4%。儘管第四季度太平洋西北地區國內木材廠和出口市場的需求仍然疲軟,但展望 2025 年,有跡象顯示市場狀況正在逐步改善。為此,木材價格開始呈現積極勢頭,該地區的生產商預計將從加拿大生產商西部 SPF 供應可能進一步減少中獲益。

  • In addition, we are cautiously optimistic attention from the export market will gradually re-emerge in response to signs of stabilization in the Chinese property market and an anticipated recovery in demand of Douglas fir logs in Japan.

    此外,隨著中國房地產市場出現穩定跡像以及日本對花旗松原木需求預計將出現復甦,我們謹慎樂觀地認為出口市場的關注將逐漸恢復。

  • Moving to New Zealand. Page 11 shows our results and key operating metrics for the segment. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of $20 million was $8 million above the prior year quarter. The increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year period was driven by favorable foreign exchange impacts, higher volumes, higher net stumpage realizations, and lower costs, partially offset by lower carbon credit income.

    移居紐西蘭。第 11 頁顯示了該部門的績效和關鍵營運指標。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2,000 萬美元,比去年同期高出 800 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 與去年同期相比有所增加,主要是由於有利的外匯影響、更高的產量、更高的淨木材實現量和更低的成本,但碳信用收入的降低部分抵消了這一影響。

  • Average delivered export sawtimber prices of $108 per ton increased 7% compared to the prior year quarter. However, these pricing gains were largely offset by higher port and freight costs, with net stumpage realizations increasing only 1% versus the prior year quarter.

    平均出口鋸材價格為每噸 108 美元,比去年同期上漲 7%。然而,這些價格上漲在很大程度上被更高的港口和運費成本所抵消,淨木材實現量僅比去年同期增加了 1%。

  • In December, offtake from Chinese ports was approximately 57,000 cubic meters per day. Although up slightly from prior year levels, log demand remains relatively soft. Inventory levels have generally adjusted to the weaker demand environment as China's property sector remains sluggish. At the end of December, softwood log inventories at Chinese ports stood at approximately 2.6 million cubic meters, slightly higher than they were a year ago.

    12月份,中國港口的天然氣供應量約為每天57,000立方公尺。儘管較上年同期水準略有上升,但原木需求仍相對疲軟。由於中國房地產產業依然低迷,庫存水準已普遍適應較弱的需求環境。截至12月底,中國港口軟木原木庫存約260萬立方米,略高於去年同期。

  • Shifting to the New Zealand domestic market. Fourth-quarter average delivered sawlog prices increased 6% from the prior year period. While economic headwinds in New Zealand persist, we are encouraged by signs of property market stabilization and increased consumer confidence as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its official cash rate by 125 basis points since August of last year. The lower interest rate environment is anticipated to contribute to improved demand in the domestic market in 2025.

    轉向紐西蘭國內市場。第四季交付鋸木的平均價格較去年同期上漲了 6%。儘管紐西蘭的經濟逆風持續存在,但由於紐西蘭儲備銀行自去年8月以來已將官方現金利率下調了125個基點,房地產市場趨於穩定和消費者信心增強的跡象令我們感到鼓舞。預計較低的利率環境將有助於 2025 年國內市場需求的改善。

  • Fourth-quarter non-timber income in New Zealand of $6 million decreased $2 million relative to the prior year period. The year-over-year decrease primarily reflects a lower volume of carbon credits sold as well as modestly lower pricing as compared to prior year period. Positively, carbon prices in New Zealand have generally stabilized following policy decisions announced in August.

    紐西蘭第四季非木材收入為 600 萬美元,較去年同期減少 200 萬美元。與去年同期相比,碳排放額度的下降主要反映了碳排放額度銷售量的下降以及價格的略微下降。積極的一面是,紐西蘭的碳價自8月宣布政策決定以來總體趨於穩定。

  • Lastly, in our Trading segment, we registered a slight operating loss in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, our Trading activities typically generate low margins and are primarily designed to provide additional economies of scale to our feed timber export business.

    最後,在我們的交易部門,我們在第四季出現了輕微的經營虧損。提醒一下,我們的貿易活動通常會產生較低的利潤,主要是為了為我們的飼料木材出口業務提供額外的規模經濟。

  • I'll now turn it back over to April to cover our Real Estate results.

    現在我將時間轉回四月份,來介紹我們的房地產業績。

  • April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Doug. As detailed on page 12, the contribution from our Real Estate segment during the fourth quarter was considerably above the prior year period. Real estate revenue totaled $567 million on roughly 207,300 acres sold, which included roughly 200,000 acres of large dispositions completed during the quarter. Excluding these transactions, fourth-quarter sales totaled $72 million on roughly 7,800 acres sold at an average price of $8,900 per acre.

    謝謝,道格。如第 12 頁所述,我們第四季房地產部門的貢獻遠高於去年同期。房地產收入總計 5.67 億美元,售出約 207,300 英畝土地,其中包括本季完成的約 20 萬英畝大型土地處置。除這些交易外,第四季度銷售總額為 7,200 萬美元,售出土地約 7,800 英畝,平均價格為每英畝 8,900 美元。

  • The strong average price per acre reflects both a higher proportion of development sales closed during the period as well as the significant premiums above timberland value that our team achieved on rural land sales.

    強勁的每英畝平均價格既反映了該期間完成的開發銷售比例較高,也反映了我們的團隊在農村土地銷售中實現的遠高於林地價值的溢價。

  • Real Estate segment adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $63 million, the strongest quarterly contribution in over three years. Drilling down, sales in the improved development category totaled $14 million, with activity primarily focused in our Heartwood development project south of Savannah, Georgia.

    房地產部門第四季度調整後 EBITDA 為 6,300 萬美元,為三年多來最強勁的季度貢獻。深入研究後,改善開發類別的銷售總額為 1,400 萬美元,活動主要集中在喬治亞州薩凡納南部的 Heartwood 開發案。

  • The largest transaction was a 37-acre build-for-rent residential parcel that sold for $9.1 million or $244,000 per acre. This project will bring more homes to the village center and will enhance Heartwood's diverse mix of industrial, commercial, and residential uses.

    最大一筆交易是一塊佔地 37 英畝的建設出租住宅地塊,售價為 910 萬美元,即每英畝 244,000 美元。該項目將為村莊中心帶來更多的住宅,並將增強 Heartwood 的工業、商業和住宅用途的多樣化組合。

  • In addition, we also closed a 37-acre residential pod for $2 million or $54,000 per acre, as well as a 7-acre industrial parcels for $1.7 million or $240,000 per acre. In our Wildlight development project, we closed a sale of a 0.9-acre commercial parcel for the development of a credit union for roughly $900,000.

    此外,我們還以 200 萬美元或每英畝 54,000 美元的價格收購了一個佔地 37 英畝的住宅區,以及以 170 萬美元或每英畝 24 萬美元的價格收購了一個佔地 7 英畝的工業地塊。在我們的 Wildlight 開發案中,我們以約 90 萬美元的價格出售了一塊 0.9 英畝的商業地塊,用於開發信用合作社。

  • Entering 2025, there continues to be healthy interest from homebuilders in both our Wildlight and Heartwood projects as the pace of residential sales continues to trend favorably. While the timeline for some commercial deals have extended as developers contend with the current interest rate environment, we continue to be pleased with the overall momentum at both projects.

    進入 2025 年,隨著住宅銷售速度繼續呈現良好趨勢,房屋建築商對我們的 Wildlight 和 Heartwood 項目將繼續保持濃厚的興趣。雖然由於開發商應對當前的利率環境,一些商業交易的時間表已經延長,但我們對這兩個項目的整體發展勢頭仍然感到滿意。

  • In our unimproved development category, sales totaled $12.4 million as we sold a 1,100-acre property directly east of Exit 1 of Interstate 95 in St. Marys, Georgia. The buyer plans to construct a highly amenitized master plan community, including a golf course, totaling about 1,300 residential units.

    在我們的未開發類別中,我們出售了位於喬治亞州聖瑪麗斯 95 號州際公路 1 號出口正東的一處佔地 1,100 英畝的土地,銷售總額達到 1,240 萬美元。買家計劃建造一個設施齊全的總體規劃社區,包括一個高爾夫球場,總計約 1,300 個住宅單元。

  • Similar to many of our land sales to homebuilders, we will also benefit from true-up payments based on the final selling price of the homes in the community as they are sold. We expect that this master planned community will catalyze demand for our adjacent land holdings, including over 300 acres nearby with improved entitlements for a mix of commercial and residential uses.

    與我們向房屋建築商出售的許多土地類似,我們還將根據社區房屋的最終售價獲得補償付款。我們預計,這個總體規劃社區將激發對我們鄰近土地持有量的需求,包括附近超過 300 英畝的土地,這些土地具有混合商業和住宅用途的改善權利。

  • Turning to the rural category. Fourth-quarter sales totaled $43 million, consisting of approximately 6,600 acres at an average price of roughly $6,500 per acre. We had an exceptionally strong finish to the year as the conversion of our rural transaction pipeline exceeded our expectations heading into year end.

    轉向農村類別。第四季銷售總額為 4,300 萬美元,約 6,600 英畝,平均價格約為每英畝 6,500 美元。由於我們的農村交易管道的轉換率超出了我們年底的預期,我們在今年取得了異常強勁的成績。

  • Despite interest rates remaining relatively elevated, we have been encouraged by increased buyer interest over the last several months and continue to see favorable demand and pricing for our rural properties. In addition, we continue to see strong interest from conservation-focused buyers, which contributed meaningfully to the sales activity during the fourth quarter.

    儘管利率仍然相對較高,但過去幾個月買家興趣的增加令我們感到鼓舞,我們鄉村房產的需求和價格繼續保持良好。此外,我們繼續看到注重保護的買家的濃厚興趣,這對第四季度的銷售活動做出了重大貢獻。

  • Moving forward, we remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for our real estate business and expect that historically low unemployment, the housing supply shortage, favorable demographic and migration trends, and the prospect of lower interest rates, should spur further demand for both development and rural properties as we progress through 2025.

    展望未來,我們仍然對房地產業務的長期前景持樂觀態度,並預計歷史性低失業率、住房供應短缺、有利的人口和移民趨勢以及較低利率的前景,將刺激對開發和農村房產的進一步需求,直至 2025 年。

  • Now moving on to our outlook for 2025. Page 14 of our supplement shows our financial guidance by segment and Schedule G of our earnings release provides a reconciliation of our guidance from net income attributable to Rayonier to adjusted EBITDA.

    現在我們來談談 2025 年的展望。我們的補充資料第 14 頁顯示了我們按部門劃分的財務指導,而我們收益報告的附表 G 則提供了從歸屬於 Rayonier 的淨收入到調整後 EBITDA 的指導意見的對賬表。

  • For full-year 2025, we expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA of $270 million to $300 million. Net income attributable to Rayonier of $79 million to $100 million and earnings per share of $0.51 to $0.64. Our guidance excludes the potential impact of any additional asset sales as part of our previously announced $1 billion disposition plan.

    到 2025 年全年,我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將達到 2.7 億至 3 億美元。歸屬於Rayonier的淨收入為7,900萬美元至1億美元,每股收益為0.51美元至0.64美元。我們的指引不包括我們先前宣布的 10 億美元處置計畫中任何額外資產出售的潛在影響。

  • With respect to our individual segments, starting with our Southern Timber segment, we expect to achieve full-year harvest volumes of 6.9 million to 7.1 million tons, a modest increase versus the prior year, primarily due to the carryover of some planned 2024 volume into 2025, partially offset by reduced volume from the Oklahoma disposition.

    就我們的各個部門而言,從南方木材部門開始,我們預計全年採伐量將達到 690 萬至 710 萬噸,較上年略有增長,這主要是由於 2024 年部分計劃採伐量結轉至 2025 年,但俄克拉荷馬州處置量減少部分抵消了這一影響。

  • As it relates to pricing, while we expect prime stumpage realizations to trend higher as the year progresses, we anticipate that full-year realizations will be slightly lower versus the prior year, due in part to the continued impact of salvage volume into the market.

    就定價而言,雖然我們預期優質木材實現量將隨著時間的推移呈上升趨勢,但我們預計全年實現量將略低於上年,部分原因是殘材量持續影響市場。

  • Lastly, we expect a modest decrease in non-timber income for full-year 2025 as compared to the prior year, which benefited from significant pipeline easement activity. Overall, we expect full-year adjusted EBITDA of $141 million to $149 million, slightly below full-year 2024 results.

    最後,我們預計,2025 年全年非木材收入將與前一年相比略有下降,這得益於大量的管道地役權活動。整體而言,我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 為 1.41 億美元至 1.49 億美元,略低於 2024 年全年業績。

  • In our Pacific Northwest Timber segment, we expect to achieve full-year harvest volumes of approximately 900,000 tons. The anticipated decrease relative to the prior year reflects the reduction in our Pacific Northwest sustainable yield resulting from the recent dispositions in Washington.

    在我們的太平洋西北木材部門,我們預計全年採伐量將達到約 90 萬噸。與上年相比預期的下降反映了我們最近在華盛頓的處置導致的太平洋西北地區可持續產量的減少。

  • Further, we expect that full-year weighted average log pricing will increase modestly versus the prior year as a result of improving demand conditions. Based on these factors, we expect full-year adjusted EBITDA of $21 million to $26 million comparable to the full-year 2024 results.

    此外,由於需求條件改善,我們預計全年加權平均原木價格將較上年小幅上漲。基於這些因素,我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 為 2,100 萬美元至 2,600 萬美元,與 2024 年全年業績相當。

  • In our New Zealand segment, we expect full-year harvest volumes of 2.5 million to 2.7 million tons. As it relates to pricing, we expect improving supply-demand dynamics to drive modest increases in both domestic and export sawtimber pricing relative to the full-year pricing achieved in 2024.

    在新西蘭分部,我們預計全年收成量將達到 250 萬至 270 萬噸。就定價而言,我們預計供需動態的改善將推動國內和出口鋸木價格相對於 2024 年全年定價出現小幅上漲。

  • We also anticipate a modest increase in carbon credit sales in 2025 as pricing has stabilized following a period of unusual market volatility. Overall, we expect full-year adjusted EBITDA of $54 million to $60 million, up modestly versus full-year 2024 results.

    我們也預計,由於經歷了一段異常市場波動後價格已趨於穩定,2025 年碳信用銷售額將小幅成長。整體而言,我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 為 5,400 萬美元至 6,000 萬美元,較 2024 年全年業績略有成長。

  • Turning to our Real Estate segment. We are encouraged by the continued strong demand and value realizations for our HBU properties. Our current pipeline suggests another solid year for both our rural land sales program as well as our improved development projects.

    轉向我們的房地產部門。我們對我們的 HBU 資產的持續強勁需求和價值實現感到鼓舞。我們目前的籌備工作表明,無論是我們的農村土地銷售計劃還是我們改進的開發項目都將迎來另一個豐收的一年。

  • However, similar to 2024, we anticipate very light closing activity in the first quarter with a correspondingly low adjusted EBITDA of less than $10 million. Overall, we expect full-year adjusted EBITDA of $86 million to $96 million, down modestly from the exceptionally strong full year 2024 results.

    然而,與 2024 年類似,我們預計第一季的成交活動會非常少,相應調整後的 EBITDA 將低於 1,000 萬美元。總體而言,我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 為 8,600 萬美元至 9,600 萬美元,較 2024 年全年異常強勁的業績略有下降。

  • Our 2025 guidance also reflects expected cost savings following recent actions we took to realign our organizational structure and reduce overhead costs in light of recent disposition activity. Since November 2023, we have completed dispositions totaling approximately 255,000 acres, roughly 11% of our total US acreage. This led us to make difficult but necessary adjustments to maintain an efficient overhead structure in light of the reduced scale of the company, while also reallocating resources to focus on important strategic growth initiatives.

    我們的 2025 年指引也反映了我們最近採取行動調整組織結構並根據最近的處置活動降低管理費用後預期的成本節約。自 2023 年 11 月以來,我們已完成總計約 255,000 英畝的處置,約占我們美國總土地面積的 11%。這導致我們做出艱難但必要的調整,以便在公司規模縮小的情況下保持高效的管理結構,同時重新分配資源以專注於重要的策略成長計畫。

  • Overall, these actions translated to a roughly 10% reduction in our US workforce and resulted in $1.1 million of restructuring charges in the fourth quarter, for estimated severance-related expenses.

    總體而言,這些措施導致我們美國員工人數減少約 10%,並導致第四季度產生 110 萬美元的重組費用,用於估計的遣散相關費用。

  • I'll now turn the call back to Mark for closing comments.

    現在我將電話轉回給馬克,請他發表最後評論。

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, April. Before concluding today's call, I'd like to recognize the exceptional effort displayed by our team in advancing several important strategic initiatives throughout 2024, while simultaneously navigating the difficult headwinds facing our timber businesses. On the land-based solutions front, we were pleased to recently announce a new poor space easement agreement with an affiliate of Reliant Carbon Capture & Storage, covering approximately 104,000 acres in Alabama.

    謝謝,April。在結束今天的電話會議之前,我想讚揚我們的團隊在 2024 年推進幾項重要戰略舉措方面所表現出的卓越努力,同時克服了木材業務面臨的困難阻力。在陸地解決方案方面,我們很高興最近宣布與 Reliant Carbon Capture & Storage 的一家附屬公司達成一項新的貧瘠空間地役權協議,涵蓋阿拉巴馬州約 104,000 英畝的土地。

  • More broadly, our team continues to advance discussions with a number of high-quality counterparties and build a strong pipeline of future opportunities given the favorable attributes of our portfolio.

    更廣泛地說,我們的團隊繼續與許多高品質的交易對手推進討論,並利用我們投資組合的有利屬性來建立強大的未來機會管道。

  • In total, as of year end, we had approximately 154,000 acres under carbon capture and storage lease and approximately 39,000 acres under option for solar development. Continuing to grow our Land-Based Solutions business is a key strategic priority for Rayonier, and we are encouraged by the financial contributions that are beginning to materialize as we build toward the 2027 and 2030 adjusted EBITDA targets that we communicated at our Investor Day last February.

    總體而言,截至年底,我們共有約 154,000 英畝土地租賃用於碳捕獲和儲存,約 39,000 英畝土地選擇用於太陽能開發。繼續發展我們的陸基解決方案業務是 Rayonier 的關鍵戰略重點,隨著我們朝著去年 2 月在投資者日上宣布的 2027 年和 2030 年調整後 EBITDA 目標邁進,我們對開始實現的財務貢獻感到鼓舞。

  • As I discussed earlier, we also made tremendous progress on our disposition and capital structure realignment plan in 2024. We've now closed on roughly $737 million of dispositions, capitalizing on the disconnect between public and private timberland values in a manner that has been accretive to both CAD and NAV per share.

    正如我之前所討論的,我們在 2024 年的處置和資本結構調整計畫方面也取得了巨大進展。我們現在已經完成了價值約 7.37 億美元的處置,利用公共和私人林地價值之間的差距,以一種增加加元和每股資產淨值的方式。

  • Looking forward, we continue to advance our evaluation of strategic alternatives with respect to our joint venture interest in New Zealand as well as other potential asset sales with a view toward further streamlining our portfolio, improving our balance sheet positioning, and capitalizing on the public-private disconnect.

    展望未來,我們將繼續推進對我們在新西蘭的合資權益以及其他潛在資產出售的戰略替代方案的評估,以進一步精簡我們的投資組合,改善我們的資產負債表定位,並利用公私脫節的優勢。

  • Throughout 2024, our team demonstrated remarkable agility adjusting to local market dynamics, severe weather events and an ever-evolving macroeconomic environment. Further, as April discussed, we've recently taken actions to realign our organizational structure for our smaller footprint. While such decisions were difficult, they will position us to operate more efficiently while remaining ready to advance our strategic priorities and capture emerging opportunities.

    在整個 2024 年,我們的團隊表現出非凡的靈活性,能夠適應當地市場動態、惡劣天氣事件和不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境。此外,正如 April 所討論的,我們最近採取了一些行動來重新調整我們的組織結構,以縮小我們的足跡。雖然做出這樣的決定很困難,但它們將使我們更有效率地運作,同時隨時準備好推進我們的策略重點並抓住新興機會。

  • Looking ahead, we remain optimistic that an undersupplied US housing market and an expected recovery in repair and remodel demand will translate into improving end market conditions. Further, we anticipate the potential constraints on the supply of Canadian lumber into the US market from continued production cuts, higher duty rates, and the prospect of new tariffs, may likewise translate to improving operating conditions as more North American lumber production shifts into the US.

    展望未來,我們仍然樂觀地認為,美國住房市場供應不足以及維修和改造需求的預期復甦將轉化為終端市場狀況的改善。此外,我們預計,持續的減產、更高的關稅以及可能徵收的新關稅可能會對加拿大木材進入美國市場的供應造成限制,但隨著更多的北美木材生產轉移到美國,也可能轉化為經營條件的改善。

  • Lastly, on the real estate front, as I detailed earlier, we finished the year with an exceptionally strong quarter in terms of both sales volume and premiums achieved to timberland values. Looking ahead, we believe that more favorable financing conditions could further bolster the demand we're seeing across our real estate categories and we are especially encouraged by the positive momentum that continues to build across our improved development platform.

    最後,在房地產方面,正如我之前詳細介紹的那樣,我們在銷售量和林地價值溢價方面都以異常強勁的表現結束了這一季度。展望未來,我們相信更有利的融資條件將進一步提振我們在房地產類別中看到的需求,我們尤其對我們改進的開發平台繼續形成的積極勢頭感到鼓舞。

  • In sum, I'm proud of how our team was able to navigate challenging market conditions throughout the year to deliver strong financial results while also maintaining a relentless focus on driving shareholder value creation. That concludes our prepared remarks, and I'll now turn the call back to the operator for questions.

    總而言之,我為我們的團隊能夠在全年應對充滿挑戰的市場環境並取得強勁的財務業績同時堅持不懈地致力於推動股東價值創造而感到自豪。我們的準備好的演講到此結束,現在我將把電話轉回給接線員以回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Matthew McKellar, RBC.

    (操作員指示) Matthew McKellar,RBC。

  • Matthew McKellar - Analyst

    Matthew McKellar - Analyst

  • Please correct me if I heard this wrong, it sounds like you're wrapping up your own salvage operations, do you expect other salvage volumes in the market to continue to put pressure on price through maybe the first half of the year. Does this imply anything about your own volumes in the salvage through the year? And maybe specifically, should we also be expecting relatively stronger volumes from Rayonier on the salvage in the second half of the year? Is the salvage operations wrap up?

    如果我聽錯了,請糾正我,聽起來你正在完成自己的打撈工作,你是否預計市場上的其他打撈量會在上半年繼續對價格施加壓力。這是否對您全年的打撈量有所暗示?具體來說,我們是否應該預期 Rayonier 在下半年的打撈量會相對較大?打撈工作結束了嗎?

  • Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

    Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

  • Sure. This is Doug. I'll start with that. So yeah, Hurricane Helene obviously, was a large hurricane. It's a Cat 4 coming across from Florida Big Bend and into Georgia, and then all the way to North Carolina. And so we really saw something that I haven't seen in my career. So it's had a significant impact in -- and to your point, it's definitely impacted the stumpage market in that area.

    當然。這是道格。我先從那裡開始。是的,颶風海倫顯然是一場大型颶風。這是一場四級颶風,從佛羅裡達大彎道經過喬治亞州,一直到北卡羅來納州。所以我們確實看到了我職業生涯中從未見過的事情。所以它產生了重大影響——正如你所說,它肯定影響了該地區的木材市場。

  • So over 10 million acres of forest land were impacted in Florida and Georgia. And while we only had a couple of thousand acres and we've pretty much cleaned that up, we're still seeing a lot of other people working through that backlog basically. And so we do expect that that's going to create some headwinds going into the first half of the year.

    佛羅裡達州和喬治亞州有超過 1000 萬英畝的林地受到影響。雖然我們只有幾千英畝的土地,而且我們基本上已經清理完畢,但我們仍然看到很多人在努力處理積壓的工作。因此,我們確實預計這將在今年上半年帶來一些阻力。

  • You can imagine based on that scale, there are a lot of self-operations underway, and most of the crews pivoted that salvage of damaged timber from both within the path and then also neighboring wood baskets. So while the impact to us was small, we're really seeing this influx of unexpected volume that led to a steep drop in pricing in much of our Georgia wood basket as timberland owners were price takers in order to try to clean up the wood that was damaged, so it reduces higher forestation costs.

    你可以想像,基於這個規模,有很多自主作業正在進行中,大多數工作人員都專注於從路徑內部以及周圍的木籃中打撈受損木材。因此,雖然對我們的影響很小,但我們確實看到了這種意外數量的湧入,導致我們喬治亞州大部分木材籃子價格大幅下跌,因為林地所有者為了清理受損的木材而接受價格,從而降低了更高的造林成本。

  • So we contended with that pricing dynamic for the entirety of Q4. And originally thought that it would be winding down sooner, but what we've seen is that there's a lot of wood in the market there from the length of that. And so people continue on with their salvage operations. And so we do see that being a headwind going into at least the first half of 2025 and think it should wrap up sometime in that first half.

    因此,我們在整個第四季都面臨著這種定價動態。原本以為它會很快結束,但我們看到,從那時起市場上有很多木材。於是人們繼續進行打撈行動。因此,我們確實認為這將成為至少在 2025 年上半年的阻力,並認為它應該在上半年的某個時候結束。

  • So to your point, we're staging our volumes and working around that. With the geographic diversity we have, we are able to harvest in other areas. So we're trying not to exacerbate the problem by putting more volume into particular areas, but we will continue to pretty much have a steady run rate as we go because we have the ability to flex across geographic areas as we go forward.

    正如您所說,我們正在分階段處理我們的捲並圍繞這一問題開展工作。由於我們擁有地理多樣性,我們能夠在其他地區收穫。因此,我們試圖不透過將更多數量投入到特定區域來加劇問題,但我們將繼續保持穩定的運行率,因為我們有能力在未來跨地理區域靈活調整。

  • But we do think this is going to weigh on our geographic pricing. So we still do have volume that we're moving in that area to meet commitments that we have with mills and things like that. So it's going to be some headwinds to start the year for us across our southern footprint, but we will move volume around geographically as we can.

    但我們確實認為這會對我們的地理定價產生影響。因此,我們仍有大量貨物在該地區運輸,以履行我們對工廠等的承諾。因此,對於我們南部地區的業務來說,新年伊始我們會遇到一些阻力,但我們會盡可能在地理上調整業務量。

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Matt, I'd just add to that, like Doug said, this was a pretty significant factor in the fourth quarter. And really the biggest driver of that year over year or this quarter relative to the prior year quarter, that decline in overall stumpage pricing. Unfortunately, we expect it's going to be a transitory impact, but we're anticipating -- well, we had one quarter of impact as it relates to 2024, we're anticipating two quarters of impact as it relates to 2025.

    馬特,我只想補充一點,就像道格說的,這是第四季的一個非常重要的因素。而本季與去年同期相比,或與去年同期相比,最大的推動因素是木材整體價格的下降。不幸的是,我們預計這將是暫時的影響,但我們預計 - 嗯,與 2024 年相比,我們有一個季度的影響,我們預計與 2025 年相比,有兩個季度的影響。

  • So again, that's one of the major factors, if not the main factor that's straining our outlook for pricing gains in the US South in 2025. Hopefully, as the market works through that glut of stumpage volume, we'll start to see a pickup in pricing in the back half of the year.

    所以,這又是主要因素之一,即使不是主要因素,也會對我們 2025 年美國南部價格上漲的前景造成壓力。希望隨著市場消化木材供應過剩的問題,我們將在今年下半年看到木材價格的回升。

  • And really, to the extent that that coincides with the pickup in lumber production in the South due to increased duties on Canadian lumber, which I believe everybody is anticipating. We think we could see a pretty nice tailwind in the second half. But again, the ongoing impact that salvage volume has certainly muted our overall expectations for full-year pricing gains in the South.

    事實上,這與由於加拿大木材關稅增加而導致南方木材產量回升相吻合,我相信每個人都在期待這一點。我們認為下半年將會出現相當好的順風。但同樣,打撈量的持續影響無疑削弱了我們對南方全年價格上漲的整體預期。

  • Matthew McKellar - Analyst

    Matthew McKellar - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks very much for that color. Next for me, just in terms of general outlook. What are your expectations for what the timberland M&A market looks like in 2025?

    偉大的。非常感謝那個顏色。接下來我只想談談整體前景。您對 2025 年林業併購市場有何預期?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, this is Mark. I'll take that. Overall, I'd say that the demand on the M&A market has continued to outstrip supply, especially with respect to higher-quality properties. We estimate that there's about $3 billion to $4 billion of capital available for timberland acquisitions. And we think a significant portion of those funds are specifically targeting carbon or climate-focused investments.

    是的,這是馬克。我接受。總體而言,我認為併購市場的需求仍然超過供應,特別是對於高品質房產而言。我們估計,大約有 30 億至 40 億美元的資金可用於林地收購。我們認為,這些基金中很大一部分專門針對碳或氣候重點的投資。

  • With all that said, there hasn't been a whole lot of property on the market recently, but we're still seeing successful transaction outcomes and certainly very strong values being paid for the assets that we have seen come to market, particularly those higher-quality assets. For example, there have been several smaller to medium-sized deals over the past couple of years in the US South, where we've seen value per acre in excess of $3,000.

    儘管如此,最近市場上並沒有大量的房產,但我們仍然看到成功的交易結果,而且我們看到的進入市場的資產,特別是那些高品質資產,肯定獲得了非常高的價值。例如,過去幾年美國南部出現了幾筆小型到中型的交易,每英畝的交易價值超過 3,000 美元。

  • So overall, we think the market is still quite competitive, especially for higher quality assets, as well as, again, assets with that unique carbon angle. But again, relatively limited volume on the market right now. As it relates to our appetite for timberland acquisitions, given our debt financing costs as well as our overall cost of capital, it's really tough to make the math work right now on buying timberland assets.

    因此總體而言,我們認為市場仍然相當有競爭力,特別是對於高品質資產以及具有獨特碳角度的資產。但目前市場交易量相對有限。就我們對林地收購的興趣而言,考慮到我們的債務融資成本以及我們的整體資本成本,現在購買林地資產確實很難計算。

  • Again, the timberland M&A market is highly competitive, especially for those higher-quality assets, which are generally the ones that we would be pursuing. And we've continued to see those per acre values move up. For example, the May Creek South average acre per acre value in the US South currently sits at about $22.40 per acre, which is up roughly 5% from year-end 2023.

    再次強調,林地併購市場競爭激烈,特別是對於那些高品質資產,而這些資產通常正是我們所追求的。我們看到每英畝的價值持續上漲。例如,美國南部 May Creek South 的平均每英畝土地價值目前約為每英畝 22.40 美元,比 2023 年底上漲約 5%。

  • So with all that said, we haven't seen that same value momentum for timberland assets reflected in our share price. So rather than buying assets, as you know, we've been selling assets over the past year with a view towards both improving our balance sheet positioning as well as putting ourselves in a position to take advantage of share buyback opportunities.

    因此,儘管如此,我們並沒有看到林地資產的相同價值動能反映在股價上。因此,如您所知,我們過去一年來一直在出售資產而不是購買資產,目的是改善我們的資產負債表狀況,並讓我們能夠利用股票回購機會。

  • So in short, I'd say that we think the best place and certainly the cheapest place for us to buy timberland assets right now is in the public market by buying back our own stock.

    簡而言之,我認為目前購買林地資產的最佳地點,當然也是最便宜的地方,就是透過公開市場回購我們自己的股票。

  • Matthew McKellar - Analyst

    Matthew McKellar - Analyst

  • Thanks very much. I'll turn it back.

    非常感謝。我會把它轉回去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Weintraub, Seaport.

    馬克溫特勞布,海港。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • I was hoping to get a little bit more color on the very, very strong values you got on some of the rural land sales. How much of that was the specifics of the properties you were selling versus anything that you feel might be happening in the markets where you own these lands more generally?

    我希望能夠更詳細地了解一些農村土地銷售的強勁價值。其中有多少是您所出售的房產的具體情況,以及您認為在您擁有這些土地的市場上可能發生的任何情況?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Mark, this is Mark. I'd start by saying kudos to our real estate team for pulling together what was really an exceptional quarter. We knew entering the year that our pipeline was going to be heavily back-end loaded. The team worked very hard to close several major transactions in the fourth quarter which contributed to those very strong results.

    馬克,我是馬克。首先我要對我們的房地產團隊表示感謝,他們共同創造了一個真正卓越的季度。我們知道,進入新的一年,我們的管道將承擔大量的後端負荷。該團隊非常努力,在第四季度完成了幾筆重大交易,這有助於取得非常強勁的業績。

  • So overall, we've been very pleased with the pricing we've been able to achieve, particularly in the fourth quarter. And we really think that that reflects the quality of our HBU portfolio. We continue to generate what we think are industry-leading pricing and premiums on our HBU real estate transactions. And we also think that this is a big part of our value creation story. It's also part of our story that we don't really think is fully appreciated by the market.

    總體而言,我們對能夠實現的定價非常滿意,特別是在第四季度。我們確實認為這反映了我們的 HBU 產品組合的品質。我們將繼續在 HBU 房地產交易中創造我們認為領先業界的定價和溢價。我們也認為這是我們價值創造故事的重要組成部分。這也是我們故事的一部分,我們認為它尚未得到市場充分重視。

  • Again, for context, as you noted, we sold about 8,000 acres of HBU and unimproved development properties in the fourth quarter, achieved a weighted average price per acre of $7,200. So again, very pleased and impressed with what the team was able to accomplish there, and we continue to see that momentum build within our HBU portfolio.

    再次,正如您所說,我們在第四季度出售了約 8,000 英畝的 HBU 和未開發土地,每英畝的加權平均價格為 7,200 美元。因此,我們再次對團隊在那裡所取得的成就感到非常高興和印象深刻,我們繼續看到這種勢頭在我們的 HBU 產品組合中不斷增強。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • And Mark, what were -- was it a certain portion that was extremely high that took that average up? Or did you see that the averages across the swath of what you were selling tended to be higher?

    馬克,是不是某個部分的比例非常高,導致平均值上升?或者您發現您銷售的所有商品的平均價格趨於更高?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, there were a number of major transactions. Again, as we've said in the past, those real estate results tend to be lumpy. They tend to be heavily driven by one or two transactions that can really move the dial. And that's why ultimately, going into the quarter, we had more muted expectations for real estate in the fourth quarter. We ended up converting on more of those transactions that were in the pipeline than we anticipated.

    嗯,有很多重大交易。再次,正如我們過去所說的那樣,這些房地產的業績往往不穩定。它們往往受一兩筆能夠真正產生影響的交易的驅動。這就是為什麼最終進入本季度,我們對第四季度的房地產預期更加低調。我們最終轉換了比我們預期更多的正在進行的交易。

  • There was one transaction in particular an unimproved development transaction that was in excess of $10,000 per acre. I think that was just over 1,000 acres in total. So again, when you have those types of transactions, that's certainly going to skew the average. And you don't get those every quarter. But again, overall, very pleased with the results we're seeing in our rural HBU business.

    特別是有一筆交易,是未開發交易,其價格超過每英畝 10,000 美元。我認為總面積剛好超過 1,000 英畝。所以,當你有這些類型的交易時,這肯定會扭曲平均值。但你並不是每季都能得到這些。但總體而言,我們對農村 HBU 業務所取得的成果非常滿意。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • Got you. Thank you. And then I appreciated the comments on alternative land and solar in particular. Do you anticipate that you're going to see any meaningful revenue pickup in solar this year? Or are we still thinking it's more a year, two years away? If you could -- any update on expected timelines.

    明白了。謝謝。我特別欣賞關於替代土地和太陽能的評價。您預計今年太陽能領域的營收將顯著成長嗎?或者我們仍認為還需要一年或兩年的時間?如果可以的話——有關預計時間表的任何更新。

  • April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, Mark, I'll take that. So we were really pleased about the financial contribution from Land-Based Solutions in 2024. So as you saw in the supplement, it was almost $15 million this year. And we're happy about the growth that we had in the acres under option for solar and under lease for CCS over the course of the year. We do expect the contribution to grow over time, and that's why we broke that out in the supplement, so you could provide the visibility and see how we're progressing.

    是的,馬克,我接受。因此,我們對 Land-Based Solutions 在 2024 年所做的財務貢獻感到非常高興。正如您在補充資料中看到的,今年的金額已接近 1500 萬美元。我們很高興看到,在過去一年中,太陽能選擇權土地面積和 CCS 租賃土地面積均有所增加。我們確實預計貢獻會隨著時間的推移而增長,這就是我們在補充資料中將其分解的原因,這樣您就可以提供可見性並了解我們的進展。

  • The bulk of our land sales solution revenue is in the solar option payments and the base rents for CCS leases. And so we're growing those revenues right now off a small base. We still have a relatively limited number of counterparties, and they are inherently going to be churn in the portfolio as it ramps up.

    我們的土地銷售解決方案收入大部分來自太陽能選擇權付款和 CCS 租賃的基本租金。因此,我們現在正在從小規模的基礎上增加收入。我們的交易對手數量仍然相對有限,而且隨著投資組合的擴大,他們必然會不斷流失。

  • So at this point, at least not yet. We're at a point where we'd be fair to assume a run rate for any quarter or a year going forward, especially given some of the NDAs associated with the agreement. We really can't get into the impact of any particular lease or individual moving pieces. But overall, I would say that we believe that we're on the trajectory that we communicated in the Investor Day of about $30 million of EBITDA by 2027.

    因此,至少就目前而言,還不是。我們現在可以公平地假設未來任何季度或一年的運行率,特別是考慮到與該協議相關的一些保密協議。我們確實無法了解任何特定租約或個別移動部件的影響。但總的來說,我想說,我們相信我們正朝著投資者日傳達的方向發展,到 2027 年,EBITDA 達到約 3,000 萬美元。

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Again, Mark, I just reiterated that as we discussed at Investor Day, we really anticipate that that pickup in contribution from Land-Based Solutions will occur beyond 2027. I recognize that essentially all of the major contributors to our Land-Based Solutions pipeline right now, most of them are certainly in that CCS and solar arena. Those tend to be -- there tend to be fairly long permitting timetables associated with those projects. so call it, three, four years in solar, probably more like four to six years in CCS.

    馬克,我再次重申,正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣,我們確實預計陸基解決方案的貢獻將在 2027 年以後增加。我認識到,目前我們陸基解決方案管道的主要貢獻者基本上大部分都在 CCS 和太陽能領域。這些項目往往有相當長的許可時間表。可以這麼說,在太陽能領域需要三、四年時間,而在 CCS 領域則可能需要四到六年時間。

  • And so the last two years has been the bulk of activity in really building up that pipeline. And I think it's probably two years from now where you really start to see that converting over solar options into leases and CCS leases into injection royalties converting over with some higher degree of regularity.

    因此,過去兩年的主要活動是真正建立這個管道。我認為可能要到兩年後,你才能真正開始看到太陽能選擇權轉換為租賃,CCS租賃轉換為注入特許權使用費,而這種轉換會以更高的規律性進行。

  • But where we'd like to get to is that you have kind of a stabilized base of options in the solar arena where there -- some portion of that is converting into leases annually, and that becomes a more predictable source of cash flow growth.

    但我們希望在太陽能領域擁有穩定的選擇基礎,其中一部分每年轉化為租賃,並成為更可預測的現金流成長來源。

  • CCS is going to be more binary around those injection permits, which again can be fairly complex to achieve. But again, very happy with how that pipeline is building, but we really expect to see that ramp start to occur in a more significant way a couple of years out.

    CCS 將圍繞這些注入許可證變得更加二元化,而這同樣會相當複雜。但是,我們再次對管道的建設感到非常高興,但我們真的希望看到這種增長在幾年後以更顯著的方式開始出現。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. I'll get back to you if I have a follow up, but I'll let others jump on first. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。如果有後續事宜,我會回覆您,但我會讓其他人先行動起來。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Roxland, Truist.

    麥克·羅克克蘭,Truist。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Thank you, Mark, April, for taking my questions. Just at this point, are you finished with your corporate realignment? Or is there more to come? And are you continuing to pursue -- I guess that's the first question. Second question would be, are there other ways that you're looking to drive efficiency throughout your portfolio?

    謝謝馬克、艾普瑞爾回答我的問題。到目前為止,你們的公司重組完成了嗎?或者還有更多嗎?您是否會繼續追求——我想這是第一個問題。第二個問題是,您是否希望透過其他方式來提高整個投資組合的效率?

  • April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    April Tice - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, I'll take that. So at this point, we've done the realignment, but I would say from a corporate examination, we're always looking at ways to keep a close eye on expenses in general, particularly given our current operating environment. And so we do anticipate looking at that.

    是的,我接受。所以在這一點上,我們已經完成了重新調整,但我想說,從公司審查的角度來看,我們一直在尋找密切關注整體開支的方法,特別是考慮到我們目前的營運環境。因此我們確實期待看到這一點。

  • I mean, recall that over the last 18 months, the large dispositions have reduced our asset base by almost 11%. And so of course, we took a fresh look at how we were organized our OP field operations in both the US South and the Pacific Northwest.

    我的意思是,回想一下,在過去的 18 個月裡,大規模的處置使我們的資產基礎減少了近 11%。因此,我們當然重新審視瞭如何組織我們在美國南部和太平洋西北地區的 OP 實地行動。

  • I would say that that's a continuous effort. We're always looking for ways to be efficient. We not only did that in our operations, but we also did that in the corporate. We looked at ways to reduce our overhead cost and streamline our processes and really looking at how we were allocating our resources and making sure that we were putting it to the areas where we wanted to grow and particularly Land-Based Solutions.

    我想說,這是一項持續的努力。我們一直在尋找提高效率的方法。我們不僅在營運中這樣做,而且在公司內部也這樣做。我們研究了降低管理費用和簡化流程的方法,並認真研究如何分配資源,並確保將資源投入到我們想要發展的領域,尤其是陸基解決方案。

  • And so that's not a one and done. We're always looking for ways to be more efficient. But from this point, that we've taken those actions and the impact for this year.

    所以這不是一次性的事情。我們一直在尋找提高效率的方法。但從這一點來看,我們已經採取了這些行動,並產生了對今年的影響。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you, April. And then just secondly, it looks like US Gypsum is going to make use of IP's closed site in Orange, Texas. I think you had some simple and acreage around there. So can you talk about any potential benefit from Rayonier as US chips in, takes over the property, and starts to bring up operations?

    知道了。謝謝你,April。其次,美國石膏公司似乎將利用 IP 公司位於德克薩斯州奧蘭治的關閉工廠。我認為你那裡有一些簡單的土地和土地。那麼,您能否談談隨著美國出資、接管財產並開始運營,Rayonier 可能帶來的任何好處?

  • Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

    Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

  • Sure. This is Doug. I'll answer that. Yeah, we are happy to see that announcement about chips in that mill. We're still waiting to learn more about their plans for that mill. Understand that they intend to use some recycled fiber, and we're not -- haven't been basically broaden the loop yet to understand what percent will be recycled fiber versus would be virgin fiber. So it's a little too early yet to be able to address that question. So we're actually waiting to find out once they've completed that and where this goes.

    當然。這是道格。我來回答這個問題。是的,我們很高興看到有關該工廠晶片的公告。我們仍在等待了解他們對該工廠的更多計劃。了解他們打算使用一些再生纖維,而我們還沒有——基本上還沒有擴大範圍來了解再生纖維和原生纖維的百分比。因此現在回答這個問題還為時過早。所以我們實際上在等待他們完成這項工作後看看會取得什麼進展。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Got it. But Doug, we say there could be some upside regard -- they probably will use some real fiber is your sense?

    知道了。但是道格,我們說可能會有一些好處——他們可能會使用一些真正的纖維,你是這麼認為的嗎?

  • Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

    Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

  • Right now, it's just too early for me to know at this point in time. If they do use virgin fiber, that would be definitely positive for that market, but we're not sure yet what the plans are.

    目前,對我來說知道這一點還為時過早。如果他們確實使用原生光纖,那麼這對該市場來說肯定是有利的,但我們還不確定計劃是什麼。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. Appreciate that. And then one last question before turning over. Just on Land-Based Solutions. Obviously, a lot of momentum, kudos to you for driving that. Just any concerns about the new administration and their -- what they're looking to do in terms of curbing disbursements from the IRA. And obviously, you guys got that intense bump in the credits to $80, $85 a ton from $50 a ton.

    知道了。謝謝。非常感謝。在翻頁之前,我還有最後一個問題。僅討論陸基解決方案。顯然,這是一個很大的勢頭,向您致敬,推動了這一勢頭。只是對新政府以及他們在控制愛爾蘭共和軍支出方面所採取的措施的任何擔憂。顯然,你們的信貸額度從每噸 50 美元大幅增加到了每噸 80、85 美元。

  • And so if the new administration curtails disbursement from the IRA if they, let's say, suspend approvals for certain things like they've suspended approvals from wind, both onshore and offshore. I think New Jersey just stopped one project they were looking to do. So any concern reservations you have about the new administration and what they're doing around ESG led Land-Based Solutions.

    因此,如果新政府削減 IRA 的支出,例如暫停某些項目的批准,例如暫停陸上和離岸風電項目的批准。我認為新澤西州剛剛停止了他們想要開展的一個項目。那麼,您對新政府以及他們在 ESG 主導的陸基解決方案所做的事情有任何擔憂嗎?

  • Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

    Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

  • Sure, it's Doug again. Yeah, it's still early days for the new administration. And I think we all know every day, there's a lot of unknowns as how it relates to how or how is it going to play out. Some go in, some come out within 24 hours. So we're watching how that goes. But that said, it's been well documented that the initiatives you mentioned related to like electric vehicles and offshore wind are not favored. That's been pretty clear.

    當然,又是 Doug。是的,新政府上任還為時過早。我想我們每天都知道,有很多未知數,例如它與什麼相關或它將如何發揮作用。有些進去,有些在 24 小時內出來。我們正在觀察事態發展。但話雖如此,有充分的證據表明,您提到的與電動車和離岸風電相關的舉措並不受歡迎。這已經非常清楚了。

  • We continue to think that it would be very complex and unpopular to repeal the IRA in its entirety or to really meaningfully roll back some of the key provisions that are driving growth in our Land-Based Solutions business, particularly given the impact that the legislation has had on job duration and particularly in a lot of those rural southern states.

    我們仍然認為,徹底廢除 IRA 或真正有意義地撤銷一些推動我們陸基解決方案業務成長的關鍵條款將是非常複雜和不受歡迎的,特別是考慮到該立法對工作持續時間的影響,特別是在許多南部農村州。

  • From what I've read recently, approximately 85% of the IRA investments and 68% of the newly created jobs were in Republican congressional districts based on the state we read about last year. So a lot of that money is flowing into the South and the Rural South in particular.

    根據我最近讀到的內容,根據我們去年讀到的資料,大約 85% 的 IRA 投資和 68% 的新創造的就業機會都位於共和黨國會選區。因此,大量資金流入南方,特別是南方農村。

  • And focusing on carbon capture and storage, in particular, you mentioned about some of those credits. President Trump signed the USE IT Act in the law during his first term that extended the 45Q tax credits for carbon capture storage, including Class VI wells and made CO2 pipelines eligible for streamlined permitting via his FAST Act. And a lot of multinational oil and gas companies have made significant investments in this technology, under the IRA, but also going forward, and look to promote the expansion of the fossil fuels, it does align with that.

    特別是您提到了關於碳捕獲和儲存的一些信用額。川普總統在第一任期內簽署了《USE IT 法案》,該法案延長了碳捕獲儲存的 45Q 稅收抵免,包括 VI 級井,並且使二氧化碳管道有資格通過他的《FAST 法案》獲得簡化的許可。許多跨國石油和天然氣公司在 IRA 的指導下對這項技術進行了大量投資,同時也展望未來,並希望促進化石燃料的擴張,這確實與此相符。

  • So the ability, as you think about the multinationals have made commitments that are outside the US, it fits well with cut of the mantra we've heard from drill baby drill. So by capturing carbon capture storage, it continues to allow the use of those fossil fuels.

    所以,當你想到跨國公司在美國以外所做的承諾時,它的能力與我們從「鑽探寶貝鑽探」中聽到的咒語非常吻合。因此,透過捕獲碳捕獲來儲存,它可以繼續允許使用這些化石燃料。

  • So we still think that carbon capture storage is still well positioned in the current political landscape and we closed on the Reliant one that Mark mentioned post the election. So we've had good comments and feedback from people we're working with.

    因此,我們仍然認為,碳捕獲儲存在當前的政治格局中仍處於有利地位,並且我們最終選擇了馬克在選舉後提到的 Reliant 項目。我們從合作夥伴那裡得到了很好的評價和回饋。

  • And on solar, there's no doubt that our incentives amplified solar developments as we laid out at our Investor Day last year, solar development was already on a steep growth curve even before the IRA, particularly given the strong and growing demand we're seeing from clean energy hungry tech industry, we see a lot of interest from them. So we expect solar energy remain on favorable growth trajectory over the coming years.

    至於太陽能,毫無疑問,我們的激勵措施促進了太陽能的發展,正如我們在去年投資者日所指出的那樣,在 IRA 出台之前,太陽能發展就已經呈現了陡峭的增長曲線,特別是考慮到我們看到的來自清潔能源需求旺盛的科技行業的強勁且不斷增長的需求,我們看到他們對此有很大的興趣。因此,我們預計未來幾年太陽能將保持良好的成長軌跡。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you, Doug. Appreciate all the color, and good luck in '25

    知道了。謝謝你,道格。欣賞所有的色彩,祝你 25 年好運

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

    花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Just looking at the guide for Pacific Northwest, I think you're expecting kind of EBITDA to be relatively flattish to down a little bit despite kind of a much larger reduction in harvest I think kind of modest price appreciation. Is there anything kind of bridging the gap there, whether it's non-timber activity or something with costs?

    僅看太平洋西北地區的指南,我認為儘管收成大幅減少,但 EBITDA 預計會相對持平或略有下降,我認為價格會適度上漲。有什麼方法可以彌補這個差距,無論是非木材活動還是有成本的活動?

  • Or -- and then can you just talk about kind of plans to export out of the Pacific Northwest and 25? And any kind of quantification of the impact of the Washington disposition on kind of the average Pacific Northwest Sawtimber pricing maybe that we'll see this year?

    或 —— 然後您能談談從太平洋西北地區和 25 地區出口的計劃嗎?我們今年可能會看到華盛頓的處置對太平洋西北部鋸木平均價格的影響有任何量化嗎?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Anthony, we couldn't hear the first part of that question. So I'm sorry, could you repeat it? It was just really muted?

    安東尼,我們聽不清楚這個問題的前半部。很抱歉,您能再說一次嗎?它真的只是靜音嗎?

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Sorry. Just in terms of Pacific Northwest, I think you're expecting EBITDA to be kind of flattish to down modestly year over year despite what looks like a pretty big reduction in harvest and maybe modest price appreciation. So just wanted to understand if there's anything else there that is bridging the gap.

    對不起。就太平洋西北地區而言,我認為儘管收成看似大幅減少且價格可能略有上漲,但 EBITDA 將與去年同期相比持平或略有下降。所以只是想了解是否有其他方法可以彌補差距。

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I really think it's a function of expectation of some improvement in pricing. I don't think that we're underwriting any material growth there in non-timber income, which tends to be a relatively small contributor in the Pacific Northwest.

    不,我確實認為這是對價格改善的預期作用。我認為我們並沒有保證非木材收入有任何實質的成長,因為這部分收入對太平洋西北地區的貢獻相對較小。

  • So yes, despite -- again, even though that guide is relatively flat to 2023 recognize that -- I'm sorry, 2024, recognized that we sold about 25% of our overall asset base there. So that certainly implies expectation of higher pricing in 2025 relative to '24?

    所以是的,儘管 - 再說一次,儘管該指南到 2023 年相對持平,但請認識到 - 對不起,2024 年,我們已在那裡出售了約 25% 的整體資產基礎。那麼這肯定意味著 2025 年的價格預期將高於 2024 年的價格?

  • Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

    Douglas Long - Executive Vice President, Chief Resource Officer

  • Yeah. The only thing I'd add to that is that based on the dispositions we have had, we do expect to have some lower cost with respect to our logging operations. So we sold some of the higher steeper ground some of the further out. So we will, in addition to seeing that price increase that Mark mentioned, we also are looking at cost savings based on the residual footprint that we had post the dispositions.

    是的。我唯一想補充的是,根據我們已有的安排,我們確實預期伐木作業的成本會降低一些。因此,我們出售了一些較高、較陡的地段和一些較遠的地段。因此,除了看到馬克提到的價格上漲之外,我們還將根據處置後的剩餘足跡來考慮成本節約。

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So certainly, if you look at that on an EBITDA per acre basis, we're anticipating a pretty material pick up again, on EBITDA per acre given the reduced acreage relative to last year?

    是的。因此,如果以每英畝 EBITDA 為基礎來看,考慮到種植面積與去年相比有所減少,我們預計每英畝 EBITDA 將再次大幅回升,對嗎?

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • And the disposition in terms of sort of average sawtimber pricing versus the regional average? Was it pretty close? Or how much of a mix impact is there?

    鋸材平均價格與地區平均價格有何差異?很接近嗎?或是混合影響有多大?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean those properties that we sold were a bit heavier to hemlock than the portfolio average. And like Doug said, they generally had a higher operating cost just given the topography and so as we discussed at the time that we announced those dispositions, we felt as though those dispositions were improving the overall quality of our Pacific Northwest portfolio, given both that percentage of Douglas fir, which is going to trade at a premium to hemlock as well as just the overall operating cost across the portfolio.

    我的意思是,我們出售的那些房產的鐵杉含量比投資組合的平均水平要高一些。而且正如道格所說的那樣,由於地形原因,它們的運營成本通常較高,因此,正如我們在宣布這些處置時所討論的那樣,我們覺得這些處置正在改善我們太平洋西北地區投資組合的整體質量,因為花旗鬆的比例將高於鐵杉,而且整個投資組合的整體運營成本也較高。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then, Mark, in your prepared remarks, I think you mentioned tariffs. I'm just wondering if you could -- any kind of finer point on maybe direct or maybe indirect impact of tariffs on your three regions?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後,馬克,在你的準備好的演講中,我想你提到了關稅。我只是想知道您是否可以更詳細地談談關稅對貴三個地區造成的直接或間接影響?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean we're certainly not anticipating any direct impact given that we're not manufacturing lumber. Look, like a lot of other companies, we're closely monitoring the tariff situation right now. Clearly, a 25% universal tariff on Canadian goods into the US would likely lead to higher lumber prices as well as incremental lumber production shifting to the US at least in the short term. The prevailing view is that this would certainly be a positive for lumber producers, and there would be a corollary to being a positive for timberland owners.

    我的意思是,鑑於我們不生產木材,我們當然不會預期任何直接影響。你看,和許多其他公司一樣,我們現在正在密切關注關稅情況。顯然,對加拿大產品徵收 25% 的普遍關稅可能會導致木材價格上漲,並至少在短期內導致木材生產增量轉移到美國。普遍的觀點是,這對木材生產商來說肯定是一件好事,並且必然會對林地所有者產生積極的影響。

  • That said, it's worth noting that whether or not new tariffs come into play, the existing duty rates currently being assessed on lumber from Canada are expected to reset significantly higher in the latter half of this year. So assuming this occurs, we would expect that it would similarly translate to both higher lumber prices as well as higher operating rates at US mills, which would likewise benefit sawlog pricing in the US.

    儘管如此,值得注意的是,無論是否實施新的關稅,目前對加拿大木材徵收的現行關稅稅率預計將在今年下半年大幅調高。因此,假設這種情況發生,我們預計這將同樣導致木材價格上漲以及美國工廠的運作率上升,這同樣將有利於美國的鋸木定價。

  • This dynamic is certainly a contributing factor to kind of how we think about that improvement in log prices as we move through the year, especially in the Pacific Northwest, which more directly competes with Western SPF from Canada.

    這種動態無疑是我們對全年原木價格上漲的看法的影響因素,特別是在太平洋西北地區,該地區與加拿大西部 SPF 的競爭更為直接。

  • With all that said, I think we also need to be mindful of the potential knock-on effects that could counteract this phenomenon. For example, it increased prices for building products, or interest rate increases, further strained housing affordability, this could potentially translate to a broader pullback of demand, both in new home construction as well as repair and remodel.

    綜上所述,我認為我們還需要注意可能抵消這種現象的連鎖反應。例如,它提高了建築產品的價格,或提高了利率,進一步加劇了住房負擔能力,這可能會導致更大範圍的需求回落,包括新房屋建設以及維修和改造。

  • So again, overall, we expect there could be some puts and takes here as it relates to tariffs, but on balance, kind of a net short-term positive, certainly for lumber producers as well as timberland owners like Rayonier.

    因此,總體而言,我們預計關稅可能會帶來一些利弊,但總的來說,這對木材生產商以及像 Rayonier 這樣的林地所有者來說無疑是一種短期利好。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

    好的。這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

    (操作員指示) Ketan Mamtora,BMO 資本市場。

  • Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

    Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

  • First question on the asset disposition program. Clearly, you've made a lot of progress on the balance sheet side with the net leverage. As we sit here today, do you think you'll need to do more from a balance sheet standpoint? Or any further sales will be focused more on kind of what kind of values you can capture on the disparity that you guys talked about?

    第一個問題關於資產處置計劃。顯然,您在資產負債表方面的淨槓桿方面已經取得了很大進展。今天我們坐在這裡,您認為從資產負債表的角度來看您需要做更多的事情嗎?或者進一步的銷售將更專注於你們能夠從你們談到的差距中捕捉到什麼樣的價值?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Ketan, this is Mark. As we discussed on prior calls, we're very pleased with what we've been able to achieve on the disposition front to date. When we first announced the plan 15 months ago, recall that we had two objectives. First was reduce our net leverage to 3 times net debt to EBITDA or lower. And the second was to capitalize on this public-private disconnect that we saw in the market by monetizing assets at private market values and returning a portion of that capital to shareholders.

    是的,Ketan,這是馬克。正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣,我們對迄今為止在處置方面所取得的成就感到非常滿意。回想一下,當我們 15 個月前首次宣布該計劃時,我們有兩個目標。首先是將我們的淨槓桿率降低至淨債務與 EBITDA 的 3 倍或更低。第二是利用我們在市場上看到的這種公私脫節,以私人市場價值將資產貨幣化,並將部分資本回饋給股東。

  • Since then, we've completed almost $740 million of timberland dispositions at a weighted average EBITDA multiple of about 45 times. And our current pro forma net debt to EBITDA is around 2.9 times or pro forma for the recent special dividend -- I'm sorry, 2.6 times at year end. Pro forma for the special dividend, I believe it's about 2.9 times. So putting all that together, I'd say we've gone a very long way towards achieving what we set out to do with the plan. And we think we've generated significant value accretion for our shareholders along the way.

    自那時起,我們已完成價值近 7.4 億美元的林地處置,加權平均 EBITDA 倍數約為 45 倍。我們目前的預期淨債務與 EBITDA 比率約為最近特別股息的 2.9 倍——抱歉,年底時為 2.6 倍。對於特別股息的預測,我認為大約是 2.9 倍。所以,綜合考慮所有這些,我想說我們已經在實現計劃的道路上取得了很大進展。我們認為,我們在過程中為股東創造了顯著的價值增值。

  • In terms of where we go from here, I'd say that we're still focused on getting to that $1 billion disposition target. But I think we have the luxury of being very patient and opportunistic in our approach. We're sitting in a very advantageous position right now in terms of our capital structure and our debt profile. So again, we can afford to be patient here.

    對於我們下一步的目標,我想說我們仍然專注於實現 10 億美元的處置目標。但我認為,我們有足夠的耐心和機會採取我們的方法。就資本結構和債務狀況而言,我們目前處於非常有利的地位。因此,我們可以再一次保持耐心。

  • Ultimately, we're only going to pursue additional dispositions if we think they enhance our strategic positioning and maximize value for our shareholders. We still think that that opportunity exists. But again, we're going to be opportunistic as we assess options going forward.

    最終,只有當我們認為額外處置能夠增強我們的策略定位並為我們的股東實現價值最大化時,我們才會進行此類處置。我們仍然認為這個機會是存在的。但是,我們再次強調,在評估未來選擇時,我們將抓住機會。

  • Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

    Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

  • Understood, Mark. That's helpful. But there's nothing in this where $1 billion is kind of a sort of a cap, right? If you find something where you get exceptionally strong values, would you be open to overshooting that $1 billion number that you all have kind of targeted?

    明白,馬克。這很有幫助。但是,這其中 10 億美元並沒有什麼上限,對吧?如果您發現某些東西具有異常高的價值,您是否願意超過您所設定的 10 億美元目標?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Look, again, we're not deliberately looking to overshoot the $1 billion target, but we're certainly not averse to doing so if we're able to achieve compelling values on the various assets that we're still considering.

    是的。再說一次,我們並不是故意想要超過 10 億美元的目標,但如果我們能夠在我們仍在考慮的各種資產上實現令人信服的價值,我們當然不會反對這樣做。

  • And if we were to exceed that target, we have some flexibility to redeploy those proceeds into other growth opportunities or timberland acquisitions, in particular, potentially through like-kind exchange transactions, which would give us some more flexibility around the potential distribution.

    如果我們超出該目標,我們可以靈活地將這些收益重新部署到其他成長機會或林地收購中,特別是透過同類交換交易,這將為我們在潛在分配方面提供更多的靈活性。

  • Alternatively, we could look to further delever and return capital to shareholders, especially if we see a compelling buyback opportunity, which I certainly think that's how we feel right now, kind of given where the stock is.

    或者,我們可以考慮進一步去槓桿,將資本返還給股東,特別是如果我們看到一個引人注目的回購機會,考慮到股票的現狀,我當然認為這就是我們現在的感受。

  • We've always operated with that mindset of nimble capital allocation and active portfolio management. really with a view towards building long-term value per share. And so we're going to continue to adhere to that mindset as we consider additional dispositions.

    我們始終以靈活的資本配置和積極的投資組合管理的思維方式進行營運。真正著眼於創造每股長期價值。因此,在考慮其他處置方式時,我們將繼續堅持這種思維方式。

  • Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

    Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

  • Understood. And then one other question, and perhaps Doug can chime in here as well. If you look at US South, over the last 10 years, we've seen significant increase in lumber production in the US South, right, call it from 15 billion board feet to 22 billion board feet roughly.

    明白了。還有一個問題,也許 Doug 也可以參與其中。如果你看看美國南部,在過去的 10 年裡,我們看到美國南部的木材產量顯著增加,從 150 億板英尺增加到大約 220 億板英尺。

  • Yet, if you look at Southern log prices and pulp wood prices during the same sort of 10 years, they are actually down, not just the southern average, but also in some of the coastal markets like Florida and Georgia.

    然而,如果你看看這十年間南方的原木價格和紙漿木材價格,你會發現它們實際上是下降的,不僅是南方的平均價格,而且佛羅裡達和喬治亞等一些沿海市場的價格也在下降。

  • So I'm curious, as you look at that sort of 10-year period and as we sit here today, what gives you confidence that as more lumber production comes in the US South that we will see increase in Southern log prices?

    所以我很好奇,當您回顧這 10 年時期,當我們今天坐在這裡時,是什麼讓您有信心隨著美國南部木材產量的增加,我們會看到南部原木價格上漲?

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. There's a lot to unpack in that question, Ketan. Look, I think there have been a lot of dynamics and shifting dynamics over the last several years that have caused lumber -- I'm sorry, timber prices in the south and not move higher as much as had been anticipated.

    是的。這個問題有很多值得探討的地方,Ketan。看,我認為過去幾年中出現了很多動態和不斷變化的動態,導致木材——對不起,南方的木材價格沒有像預期的那樣上漲。

  • One of those dynamics right now and certainly over the last, call it, 18 months has been this disconnect that we've seen develop between Southern Yellow Pine lumber prices and SPF lumber prices. And again, I think that there's been a fair amount of discussion around why that exists and why that's persisted here recently, some of that is driven by just the preferred end use for those different types of lumber.

    目前的動態之一,當然在過去的 18 個月裡,就是我們看到南方黃松木材價格與 SPF 木材價格之間出現的脫節。而且,我認為最近已經對為什麼會出現這種情況以及為什麼這種情況會持續存在進行了大量討論,其中一些討論僅僅是由這些不同類型木材的最終用途所驅動。

  • So for example, SPF tends to have a preferred use in single-family construction, Southern Yellow Pine tends to have a preferred use in repair and remodel. And so with the pullback in our repair and remodel activity, we think that, that's really been one of the big drivers of that disconnect that's developed between SPF lumber SYP lumber.

    例如,SPF 往往優先用於單戶住宅建築,而南方黃松則往往優先用於修繕和改造。因此,隨著修復和改造活動的減少,我們認為,這確實是導致 SPF 木材和 SYP 木材之間出現脫節的主要原因之一。

  • So yes, the thesis had been historically that as we continue to see capacity come out of Canada and more of that production shifted to the US South or the thought was it more of that production would shift to the US South, that that would translate to higher prices for sawlogs. But the issue that we have right now or that I'd say the market has right now is that given that disconnect between SPF and SYP, Southern mills just haven't been as profitable as would have been expected in this type of demand environment.

    所以是的,歷史上的論點是,隨著我們繼續看到產能來自加拿大,並且更多的生產轉移到美國南部,或者人們認為更多的生產將轉移到美國南部,這將導致鋸木價格上漲。但我們現在面臨的問題或我認為市場現在面臨的問題是,鑑於 SPF 和 SYP 之間的脫節,南方工廠的獲利能力在這種需求環境下並沒有達到預期。

  • Again, we think that some of these issues are transitory. I do think that we expect or the market expects the repair and remodel should pick up. We've kind of been suffering from this lock-in effect of the -- following the rapid rise in mortgage rates where essentially people couldn't afford to move. And really, it's that resale activity that drives R&R spending. People tend to remodel a home, either right before they sell it or right after they buy it. And again, that resale activity has been pretty limited.

    我們再次認為,其中一些問題是暫時的。我確實認為,我們預計或市場預計修復和改造將會增加。我們一直受到這種鎖定效應的影響——隨著抵押貸款利率的快速上升,人們基本上無法搬家。事實上,正是轉售活動推動了 R&R 支出。人們往往會在出售房屋之前或購買房屋之後對其進行改造。而且,轉售活動再次非常有限。

  • So we think the market is starting to normalize. We think we're going to see a pickup in R&R activity. We think we should see some more normalization of SYP lumber prices relative to SPF. And on balance, we think that, that should drive both SYP lumber prices as well as southern sawlog prices higher.

    因此我們認為市場正在開始正常化。我們認為我們將會看到 R&R 活動的回升。我們認為,我們應該會看到 SYP 木材價格相對於 SPF 更加正常化。總的來說,我們認為,這將推動敘利亞木材價格以及南方鋸木價格上漲。

  • And again, I think if you couple that with what's anticipated to be a pretty meaningful uptick in lumber duties after midyear, kind of irrespective of any new tariffs that could come into play. Again, we think that that could create a pretty meaningful tailwind for sawlog pricing in the South.

    而且我認為,如果再加上預計年中之後木材關稅將大幅上調,那麼無論是否推出新關稅,都會產生影響。再次,我們認為這可能為南方的鋸木定價創造相當有意義的順風。

  • But here your point that it hasn't materialized on the timetable that many would have expected at different points in time over the last five, 10 years, but it does feel as though we're kind of entering an inflection point here in the coming years.

    但您要指出的是,它並沒有按照許多人在過去五到十年的不同時間點預期的時間表實現,但感覺我們好像在未來幾年將進入一個轉折點。

  • Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

    Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

  • Thanks, Mark. That's very helpful. I appreciate that perspective.

    謝謝,馬克。這非常有幫助。我很欣賞這種觀點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Weintraub, Seaport.

    馬克溫特勞布,海港。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • I hope this is a fair question. I'll try to keep it really short. So a year ago, you hired a financial adviser to help evaluate the strategic alternatives for New Zealand. Has that process largely played out at this point? Or is there anything -- any color you can give us how we should be thinking about that given that that was a year ago when that was announced or almost a year ago.

    我希望這是一個公平的問題。我會盡量簡短地說。所以一年前,你聘請了一位財務顧問來幫助評估紐西蘭的策略替代方案。目前這個過程是否已基本結束?或者有什麼——您能告訴我們我們應該如何考慮這個問題嗎,因為那是在一年前或將近一年前宣布的。

  • Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Mchugh - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. We don't have anything specific to report on New Zealand at this point other than to say that we are still actively engaged in that evaluation of strategic alternatives there. That process has not concluded. Recall that when we initially announced that review of strategic alternatives for New Zealand, we indicated that we expected that process could be a very lengthy process given some of the complexities of our joint venture structure there. So again, we're still working through it, but we're not in a position to comment further at this point.

    是的。目前,我們還沒有關於紐西蘭的具體報告,只能說我們仍在積極評估那裡的策略替代方案。該進程尚未結束。回想一下,當我們最初宣布審查紐西蘭的戰略替代方案時,我們表示,考慮到我們在那裡的合資企業結構的一些複雜性,我們預計這個過程可能會是一個非常漫長的過程。所以,我們仍在努力解決這個問題,但目前我們還不能發表進一步的評論。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • Very good, and thank you.

    非常好,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, I am showing no further questions, sir.

    先生,目前我沒有其他問題。

  • Collin Mings - Vice President, Capital Markets and Strategic Planning

    Collin Mings - Vice President, Capital Markets and Strategic Planning

  • All right. This is Collin Mings. I'd like to thank everybody for joining us. Please contact us with any follow-up questions.

    好的。這是 Collin Mings。我想感謝大家的參與。如果還有任何後續問題,請與我們聯絡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以繼續並斷開連接。