Rayonier Inc (RYN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining Rayonier's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2022 Teleconference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎並感謝您加入 Rayonier 的第四季度和年終 2022 年電話會議。 （操作員說明）正在錄製今天的會議。如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Mr. Collin Mings, Vice President, Capital Markets and Strategic Planning.

現在我將把會議轉交給負責資本市場和戰略規劃的副總裁 Collin Mings 先生。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Rayonier's investor teleconference covering fourth quarter earnings. Our earnings statements and financial supplement were released yesterday afternoon and are available on our website at rayonier.com. I would like to remind you that in these presentations, we include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

謝謝，早上好。歡迎來到 Rayonier 的投資者電話會議，討論第四季度收益。我們的收益報表和財務補充文件於昨天下午發布，可在我們的網站 rayonier.com 上獲取。我想提醒您，在這些演示文稿中，我們包含了根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述。

Our earnings release and Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC with some of the factors that cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements we may make. They are also referenced on Page 2 of our financial supplement. Throughout these presentations, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to the nearest GAAP measures in our earnings release and supplemental materials.

我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和 10-K 和 10-Q 表格包含一些導致實際結果與我們可能做出的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素。我們的財務增刊第 2 頁也引用了它們。在這些演示文稿中，我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標在我們的收益發布和補充材料中被定義並與最接近的 GAAP 指標相一致。

With that, let's start our teleconference with opening comments from Dave Nunes, our CEO. Dave?

有了這個，讓我們從我們的首席執行官戴夫努內斯的開場評論開始我們的電話會議。戴夫？

Thanks, Colin. Good morning, everyone. First, I'll make some high-level comments before turning it over to Mark McHugh, President and Chief Financial Officer, to review our consolidated financial results. Then we'll ask Doug Long, Executive Vice President and Chief Resource Officer, to comment on our U.S. and New Zealand timber results. And following the review of our timber segments, Mark will discuss our Real Estate results as well as our outlook for 2023.

謝謝，科林。大家，早安。首先，在將其轉交給總裁兼首席財務官 Mark McHugh 審查我們的綜合財務業績之前，我將發表一些高層評論。然後我們將請執行副總裁兼首席資源官 Doug Long 對我們的美國和新西蘭木材結果發表評論。在審查我們的木材部門之後，馬克將討論我們的房地產業績以及我們對 2023 年的展望。

We are pleased with our overall financial performance in '22, particularly given the challenging macroeconomic backdrop that developed during the course of the year. For the full year, we generated GAAP earnings per share of $0.73, pro forma earnings per share of $0.62 and adjusted EBITDA of $314 million. Notably, our 3 timber segments generated total adjusted EBITDA of $275 million, representing the highest ever result for the company and roughly 8% above the previous record achieved in 2021.

我們對 22 年的整體財務表現感到滿意，特別是考慮到這一年中出現的具有挑戰性的宏觀經濟背景。全年，我們的 GAAP 每股收益為 0.73 美元，預計每股收益為 0.62 美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.14 億美元。值得注意的是，我們的 3 個木材部門產生的調整後 EBITDA 總額為 2.75 億美元，是公司有史以來的最高業績，比 2021 年創下的歷史記錄高出約 8%。

Despite deteriorating market conditions towards the end of 2022, in response to rising interest rates, growing macroeconomic uncertainty and a slowing U.S. housing market, we still achieved record full year adjusted EBITDA in both our Southern and Pacific Northwest Timber segments. We believe this underscores the relative strength of our timber markets and the ability of our team to navigate an ever-evolving operating environment.

儘管到 2022 年底市場狀況惡化，但為了應對利率上升、宏觀經濟不確定性增加和美國房地產市場放緩，我們在南部和太平洋西北木材部門的全年調整後 EBITDA 仍然創下歷史新高。我們相信這凸顯了我們木材市場的相對實力以及我們團隊應對不斷變化的經營環境的能力。

The strong full year results in our U.S. timber operations were partially offset by lower adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year in our New Zealand Timber segment, which contended with slower economic activity in China as well as higher operating costs.

我們美國木材業務強勁的全年業績被新西蘭木材部門調整後的 EBITDA 與上一年相比較低所部分抵消，這與中國經濟活動放緩以及運營成本上升相抗衡。

Meanwhile, in our Real Estate segment, we achieved solid results that were generally in line with our expectations entering the year, reflecting our continued focus on optimizing the value of our portfolio through the sale of rural and recreational properties, land entitled for development and nonstrategic holdings.

與此同時，在我們的房地產部門，我們取得了穩健的業績，總體上符合我們今年的預期，反映出我們繼續專注於通過出售農村和休閒物業、有權開發的土地和非戰略性土地來優化我們的投資組合價值持股。

As Mark will discuss in greater detail later in the call, we are providing full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $280 million to $320 million. This is a wider range than we've historically provided for full year adjusted EBITDA guidance, which reflects heightened macroeconomic uncertainty as well as log pricing headwinds entering the year. That said, we've seen some recent signs of end market improvement, including increased wood products pricing, a more stable interest rate environment and improving homebuilder sentiment which suggests that timber market conditions may be poised to rebound to some extent, which is reflected in the higher end of our guidance range.

正如 Mark 稍後將在電話會議中更詳細地討論的那樣，我們將提供 2023 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 指導，範圍為 2.8 億美元至 3.2 億美元。這比我們歷史上為全年調整後的 EBITDA 指導提供的範圍更廣，這反映了宏觀經濟不確定性加劇以及進入今年的對數定價逆風。也就是說，我們最近看到了終端市場改善的一些跡象，包括木材產品價格上漲、利率環境更加穩定以及房屋建築商情緒改善，這表明木材市場狀況可能會在一定程度上反彈，這反映在我們指導範圍的高端。

Stepping back to the fourth quarter, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $68 million and pro forma earnings per share of $0.11. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 36% versus the prior year quarter as stronger results in our Pacific Northwest and New Zealand Timber segments as well as higher -- a higher contribution from our Real Estate segment more than offset a slightly lower contribution from our Southern Timber segment.

回到第四季度，我們產生了 6800 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 0.11 美元的預計每股收益。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 與去年同期相比增長了 36%，這是因為我們太平洋西北地區和新西蘭木材部門的業績更強勁，而且更高——我們房地產部門的貢獻更高，足以抵消我們南部木材部門略低的貢獻.

Drilling down deeper -- further on our operating segments. Our Southern Timber segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $33 million in the fourth quarter, which was 1% below the prior year period. While weighted average net stumpage realizations increased by 7% versus the prior year quarter, this was more than offset by an 11% decrease in harvest volumes. In general, our Southern Timber segment continued to benefit from our concentration in some of the most tensioned log markets across the U.S. South, although both demand and pricing were impacted late in the fourth quarter, as market conditions deteriorated.

更深入地鑽探 - 進一步深入我們的運營部門。我們的南方木材部門在第四季度產生了 3300 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，比去年同期低 1%。雖然加權平均淨立木實現比去年同期增加了 7%，但這被採伐量減少 11% 所抵消。總的來說，我們的南部木材部門繼續受益於我們集中在美國南部一些最緊張的原木市場，儘管隨著市場狀況惡化，需求和定價在第四季度末受到影響。

In our Pacific Northwest Timber segment, we achieved fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $16 million, up 18% from the prior year quarter. The year-over-year increase was attributable to 17% higher weighted average log prices and a 3% increase in harvest volumes. Our operations in the region continued to benefit throughout the fourth quarter from favorable supply-demand dynamics as domestic lumber markets, export markets and pulpwood markets competed for a limited supply of logs.

在我們的太平洋西北木材部門，我們在第四季度實現了 1600 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，比去年同期增長 18%。同比增長歸因於加權平均原木價格上漲 17% 和採伐量增加 3%。由於國內木材市場、出口市場和紙漿木材市場爭奪有限的原木供應，我們在該地區的業務在整個第四季度繼續受益於有利的供需動態。

Turning to our New Zealand Timber segment. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $14 million increased 39% from the prior year period due to increased carbon credit sales and 7% higher harvest volumes, which more than offset lower log pricing amid continued export market headwinds.

轉向我們的新西蘭木材部門。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1400 萬美元，比去年同期增長 39%，原因是碳信用額銷售額增加，採伐量增加 7%，這足以抵消出口市場持續逆風導致原木價格下降的影響。

In our Real Estate segment, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $14 million in the fourth quarter, up significantly from $3 million in the prior year period. The improved results were driven by increased sales in the Wildlight development project north of Jacksonville, Florida, as well as a higher number of rural acres sold and higher per acre value realizations versus the prior year period.

在我們的房地產部門，我們在第四季度產生了 1400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，大大高於去年同期的 300 萬美元。業績改善的原因是佛羅里達州傑克遜維爾北部 Wildlight 開發項目的銷售額增加，以及與去年同期相比，農村土地的銷售量和每英畝價值的實現有所增加。

Despite the increase in interest rates as compared to a year ago, demand for rural land remains strong as we enter 2023, and we continue to be pleased by the favorable momentum in both our Wildlight and Heartwood development projects.

儘管利率與一年前相比有所上升，但隨著我們進入 2023 年，對農村土地的需求依然強勁，我們繼續對 Wildlight 和 Heartwood 開發項目的良好勢頭感到高興。

As previously announced, in the fourth quarter, we also completed the acquisition of approximately 137,800 acres of high-quality commercial timberlands located in Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Louisiana for an aggregate purchase price of $454 million from Manulife Investment Management, a leading timberland investment manager. The acquired properties are well stocked in highly productive timberlands located in some of the strongest timber markets in the U.S. South. We are pleased to have successfully integrated these properties into our portfolio and have been encouraged by the customer response to our initial timber sales from these assets. Looking ahead, we're very excited about managing these timberlands for long-term value creation.

正如先前宣布的那樣，在第四季度，我們還完成了對位於德克薩斯州、佐治亞州、阿拉巴馬州和路易斯安那州的約 137,800 英畝優質商業林地的收購，收購總價為 4.54 億美元，來自領先的林地投資公司 Manulife Investment Management經理。收購的資產位於美國南部一些最強大的木材市場的高產林地中，庫存充足。我們很高興成功地將這些資產整合到我們的投資組合中，並且客戶對我們從這些資產進行的初始木材銷售的反應讓我們感到鼓舞。展望未來，我們對管理這些林地以創造長期價值感到非常興奮。

And with that, let me turn it over to Mark for more details on our fourth quarter financial results.

就此，讓我把它交給馬克，了解我們第四季度財務業績的更多細節。

Thanks, Dave. Let's start on Page 5 with our financial highlights.

謝謝，戴夫。讓我們從第 5 頁的財務摘要開始。

Sales for the fourth quarter totaled $245 million, while operating income was $44 million and net income attributable to Rayonier was $33 million or $0.22 per share. On a pro forma basis, net income was $16 million or $0.11 per share. Pro forma items in the fourth quarter included $16.6 million of income from large dispositions and a $0.4 million favorable adjustment to a timber write-off taken in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $68 million in the fourth quarter, up from $50 million in the prior year period.

第四季度銷售額總計 2.45 億美元，營業收入為 4400 萬美元，歸屬於 Rayonier 的淨收入為 3300 萬美元或每股 0.22 美元。在備考基礎上，淨收入為 1600 萬美元或每股 0.11 美元。第四季度的備考項目包括 1660 萬美元的大額處置收入和 40 萬美元的對第三季度木材註銷的有利調整。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6800 萬美元，高於去年同期的 5000 萬美元。

On the bottom of Page 5, we provide an overview of our capital resources and liquidity. Our cash available for distribution, or CAD, for the full year was $189 million versus $208 million in the prior year period. The decrease was primarily driven by lower adjusted EBITDA, higher cash taxes and higher capital expenditures, partially offset by lower cash interest paid. As previously discussed, cash taxes were elevated in 2022 due to the required timing of estimated tax payments for our New Zealand subsidiary, following the full utilization of its NOLs. A reconciliation of CAD to cash provided by operating activities and other GAAP measures is provided on Page 8 of the financial supplement.

在第 5 頁的底部，我們概述了我們的資本資源和流動性。我們全年可供分配的現金或加元為 1.89 億美元，而去年同期為 2.08 億美元。減少的主要原因是調整後的 EBITDA 降低、現金稅增加和資本支出增加，部分被支付的現金利息減少所抵消。如前所述，由於我們的新西蘭子公司在充分利用其 NOL 後需要按規定的時間繳納預估稅款，因此現金稅在 2022 年有所提高。財務補充的第 8 頁提供了 CAD 與經營活動和其他 GAAP 措施提供的現金的對賬。

During the fourth quarter, we closed on the previously announced 5-year $250 million incremental term loan through the farm credit system to partially fund the U.S. South acquisitions that Dave discussed. The company also entered into an interest rate swap agreement to fix $100 million of the term loan at an all-in effective cost of approximately 4.6% net of estimated patronage refunds. Additionally, in the fourth quarter, we replaced our prior aftermarket, or ATM, equity offering program with a new $300 million ATM program.

在第四季度，我們通過農場信貸系統關閉了先前宣布的 5 年 2.5 億美元增量定期貸款，以部分資助 Dave 討論的美國南部收購。該公司還簽訂了一項利率互換協議，確定 1 億美元的定期貸款，總有效成本約為扣除估計贊助退款後的 4.6%。此外，在第四季度，我們用價值 3 億美元的新 ATM 計劃取代了之前的售後市場或 ATM 股權發行計劃。

During the quarter, we raised approximately $30 million through the new ATM program at an average price of $35.51 per share. We continue to view the ATM as a cost-effective tool to opportunistically raise equity capital and fund capital allocation priorities.

本季度，我們通過新的 ATM 計劃以每股 35.51 美元的平均價格籌集了大約 3000 萬美元。我們繼續將 ATM 視為一種具有成本效益的工具，可以機會主義地籌集股本和為資本分配優先事項提供資金。

In sum, we closed the fourth quarter with $114 million of cash and $1.5 billion of debt. At year-end, our weighted average cost of debt was approximately 3% and the weighted average maturity on our debt portfolio was approximately 6 years with no significant debt maturities until 2026. Our net debt of approximately $1.4 billion represented 22% of our enterprise value based on our closing stock price at the end of the year.

總之，我們以 1.14 億美元的現金和 15 億美元的債務結束了第四季度。年底時，我們的加權平均債務成本約為 3%，我們債務組合的加權平均期限約為 6 年，直到 2026 年沒有重大債務到期。我們的淨債務約為 14 億美元，占我們企業價值的 22%基於我們年底的收盤價。

I'll now turn the call over to Doug to provide a more detailed review of our timber results.

我現在將電話轉給道格，以更詳細地審查我們的木材結果。

Thanks, Mark. Good morning. Let's start on Page 9 with the Southern Timber segment. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of $33 million was 1% below the prior year quarter, driven by lower harvest volumes, largely offset by higher net stumpage pricing, lower leased land report station costs and higher non-timber income. Volume decreased 11% versus the prior year quarter as macroeconomic headwinds led to softer demand in certain markets, particularly for pulpwood.

謝謝，馬克。早上好。讓我們從第 9 頁的南方木材部分開始。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 3300 萬美元，比上年同期低 1%，這是由於採伐量下降，這在很大程度上被更高的淨立木定價、更低的租賃土地報告站成本和更高的非木材收入所抵消。由於宏觀經濟逆風導致某些市場需求疲軟，尤其是紙漿木材，銷量與去年同期相比下降了 11%。

Average sawlog stumpage pricing was $34 per ton, an 11% increase compared to the prior year period. The improved pricing reflected healthy demand from sawmills across most of our operating areas, despite a significant decline in lumber prices relative to the prior year period. Meanwhile, pulpwood net stumpage pricing decreased 1% to roughly $21 per ton versus prior year quarter, primarily due to weaker end market demand and an increase in available supply as a result of drier weather conditions.

鋸木立木的平均價格為每噸 34 美元，比去年同期增長 11%。儘管木材價格與去年同期相比大幅下降，但價格的提高反映了我們大部分經營區域鋸木廠的健康需求。與此同時，紙漿木材淨立木價格與去年同期相比下降 1% 至每噸約 21 美元，這主要是由於終端市場需求疲軟以及天氣乾燥導致可用供應增加。

Overall, weighted average stumpage prices in the fourth quarter improved 7% versus the prior year quarter to nearly $26 per ton.

總體而言，第四季度的加權平均立木價格較上年同期上漲 7%，達到每噸近 26 美元。

Entering 2023, we have seen some decline in both sawtimber and pulpwood pricing compared to the fourth quarter as our customers are approaching the New Year cautiously, given the slowdown in residential construction activity and other macroeconomic challenges. Notwithstanding these near-term headwinds, we believe that the longer-term outlook for Southern timber prices remains favorable. Specifically, we expect that lower lumber pricing will lead to additional sawmill curtailment in British Columbia, which should allow the U.S. South to continue to capture a greater market share of North American lumber production. Importantly, we also anticipate that the Southern Timber markets with more favorable supply-demand dynamics and corresponding price elasticity will benefit disproportionately from this transition relative to the U.S. South as a whole.

進入 2023 年，我們發現鋸材和紙漿木材的價格與第四季度相比有所下降，因為我們的客戶在住宅建設活動放緩和其他宏觀經濟挑戰的情況下謹慎地迎接新年。儘管存在這些近期不利因素，但我們認為南方木材價格的長期前景仍然看好。具體而言，我們預計較低的木材價格將導致不列顛哥倫比亞省的鋸木廠進一步減產，這將使美國南部繼續佔據北美木材生產的更大市場份額。重要的是，我們還預計，與整個美國南部相比，具有更有利供需動態和相應價格彈性的南部木材市場將從這一轉變中獲益不成比例。

Moving to our Pacific Northwest Timber segment on Page 10. Adjusted EBITDA of $16 million was 18% higher than the prior year quarter. The year-over-year increase was driven by the sale of a timber reservation to a conservation group. Higher net stumpage realizations, lower costs and higher volumes, partially offset by lower non-timber income. Volume increased 3% in the fourth quarter as compared to the prior year period, primarily due to labor strikes in the region, causing a reduction in supply of pulpwood and residuals on the market.

轉到第 10 頁的太平洋西北木材部門。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1600 萬美元，比去年同期增長 18%。同比增長是由向保護組織出售木材保留地推動的。更高的淨立木變現、更低的成本和更高的產量，部分被較低的非木材收入所抵消。與去年同期相比，第四季度的銷量增長了 3%，這主要是由於該地區的罷工導致市場上紙漿木材和殘渣的供應減少。

Turning to pricing. At nearly $112 per ton, our average delivered sawlog price in the fourth quarter was up 14% from the prior year period, primarily driven by strong demand from the rest of the lumber mills as well as a favorable species mix with a higher proportion of [doves per] volume.

轉向定價。我們第四季度的平均交付鋸木價格接近每噸 112 美元，比去年同期上漲 14%，這主要是由於其他木材廠的強勁需求以及有利的物種組合以及更高比例的 [每]卷鴿子。

Meanwhile, fourth quarter pulpwood pricing of $66 per ton increased 80% over the prior year quarter, reflecting strong end-market demand, coupled with supply constraints due to fewer residuals and increased competition from mills for lumber supply of smaller-sized logs. However, similar to the U.S. South, in Pacific Northwest, we have seen declines in both sawtimber and pulpwood pricing in early 2023 as compared to the relatively strong pricing realizations we achieved throughout 2022. A slowdown in residential construction activity has weighted lumber prices and, in turn, sawtimber prices, while pulpwood pricing has retreated from the exceptionally high levels achieved at the end of 2022 due to softening demand as well as the temporary curtailment of a mill in the region.

與此同時，第四季度紙漿木價格為每噸 66 美元，比去年同期上漲 80%，反映出強勁的終端市場需求，以及由於殘材減少導致的供應限制，以及來自工廠對小尺寸原木木材供應的競爭加劇。然而，與美國南部類似，在太平洋西北地區，與我們在整個 2022 年實現的相對強勁的定價實現相比，我們看到 2023 年初鋸材和紙漿木的價格均有所下降。住宅建設活動的放緩對木材價格造成了影響，並且，反過來，由於需求疲軟以及該地區一家工廠的臨時減產，鋸材價格和紙漿木材價格已從 2022 年底達到的異常高水平回落。

Although current market conditions are more challenging, we believe our nimble approach to operational decision-making, the relative strength of our markets and the optionality offered by our export market capabilities position us well to adapt to changes in the operating environment.

儘管當前的市場條件更具挑戰性，但我們相信我們靈活的運營決策方法、我們市場的相對實力以及我們出口市場能力提供的選擇性使我們能夠很好地適應運營環境的變化。

Moving to New Zealand. Page 11 shows results in key operating metrics for our New Zealand Timber segment. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of $14 million was $4 million above the prior year quarter. The increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year quarter was driven by increased carbon credit sales and higher harvest volumes, partially offset by lower net stumpage realizations and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts.

搬到新西蘭。第 11 頁顯示了我們新西蘭木材部門關鍵運營指標的結果。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1400 萬美元，比上年同期增加 400 萬美元。與去年同期相比，調整後的 EBITDA 增加是由於碳信用額銷售額增加和採伐量增加，部分被淨立木變現減少和不利的外匯影響所抵消。

Average delivered export sawtimber prices of $111 per ton declined 16% as compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting reduced demand from China. While our New Zealand export business faced a number of headwinds last year, we're optimistic that the recent relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures and fiscal support of the property sector by the Chinese government will lead to a gradual increase in export log demand and pricing versus the prior year.

鋸材出口平均交付價格為每噸 111 美元，較上年同期下降 16%，反映出中國需求減少。雖然我們的新西蘭出口業務去年面臨諸多不利因素，但我們樂觀地認為，中國政府最近放寬 COVID-19 遏制措施和對房地產行業的財政支持將導致出口原木需求逐漸增加，定價與上一年相比。

In addition, Chinese port inventories were at relatively normalized levels heading into the Lunar New Year, which coupled with ongoing supply side constraints, including a reduced flow of European salvage logs into China and the ongoing Russian log export ban provide us with further optimism that the export market will gradually improve as the year progresses. On the cost side, we expect the decline in freight rates versus the elevated levels seen in 2022 should contribute to improved margins year-over-year.

此外，進入農曆新年，中國港口庫存處於相對正常的水平，再加上供應方面的持續限制，包括歐洲打撈原木流入中國的減少以及俄羅斯原木出口禁令的持續實施，使我們更加樂觀地認為隨著時間的推移，出口市場將逐漸好轉。在成本方面，我們預計運費的下降與 2022 年的高水平相比應該有助於提高利潤率。

Shifting to the New Zealand domestic market. Fourth quarter average delivered sawlog prices declined 20% from the prior year period to $65 per ton, largely driven by a sharp decline in the New Zealand dollar, U.S. dollar exchange rate. Excluding foreign exchange impacts, domestic sawtimber prices decreased 5%, reflecting weaker domestic market demand due to reduced competition from export markets as well as higher mortgage rates negatively impacting the demand for construction materials.

轉向新西蘭國內市場。第四季度平均交付鋸木價格比去年同期下降 20% 至每噸 65 美元，這主要是由於新西蘭元兌美元匯率大幅下跌。排除外匯影響，國內鋸材價格下跌 5%，反映出由於出口市場競爭減少導致國內市場需求疲軟，以及更高的抵押貸款利率對建築材料的需求產生負面影響。

Domestic pulpwood prices in New Zealand were likewise impacted by foreign exchange rates, declined 24% on a U.S. dollar basis compared to the prior year quarter.

新西蘭的國內紙漿木材價格同樣受到匯率的影響，與去年同期相比以美元計算下降了 24%。

Excluding foreign exchange impacts, domestic pulpwood prices declined 9%, reflecting less competition from export markets for lower quality logs. While log markets in the New Zealand remained challenging in the fourth quarter, nontimber income in New Zealand, which primally reflects carbon credit sales, continue to bolster our financial results during $9.1 million of revenue in the quarter. Going forward, we plan to remain a optronics in our sale of carbon credits, depending on carbon credit market conditions and our pricing outlook.

排除外匯影響，國內紙漿木材價格下降了 9%，反映出出口市場對低質量原木的競爭減少。雖然新西蘭的原木市場在第四季度仍然充滿挑戰，但新西蘭的非木材收入（主要反映碳信用銷售）在本季度 910 萬美元的收入中繼續支持我們的財務業績。展望未來，我們計劃根據碳信用市場狀況和我們的定價前景，在我們的碳信用銷售中繼續使用光電產品。

Lastly, in our Trading segment, we posted a slight operating profit in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, our trading activities typically drive low margins and are primarily designed to provide additional economies of scale to our fee timber export business.

最後，在我們的貿易部門，我們在第四季度公佈了輕微的營業利潤。提醒一下，我們的貿易活動通常會帶來低利潤，主要旨在為我們的收費木材出口業務提供額外的規模經濟。

I'll now turn it over to Mark to cover our real estate results.

我現在把它交給馬克來報導我們的房地產結果。

Thanks, Doug. As detailed on Page 12, our Real Estate segment delivered strong results in the fourth quarter. Real estate sales totaled $57 million on roughly 13,100 acres sold, which included a large disposition in Washington, consisting of roughly 11,000 acres sold to a conservation-oriented buyer for approximately $30 million. Excluding this transaction, fourth quarter sales totaled $27 million on roughly 2,100 acres sold at an average price of over $13,700 per acre.

謝謝，道格。如第 12 頁所述，我們的房地產部門在第四季度取得了強勁的業績。售出約 13,100 英畝土地的房地產銷售額總計 5,700 萬美元，其中包括在華盛頓的大量處置，其中約 11,000 英畝土地以約 3,000 萬美元的價格賣給了一位以保護為導向的買家。不計此項交易，第四季度銷售額總計 2,700 萬美元，出售的面積約為 2,100 英畝，平均價格超過每英畝 13,700 美元。

Real Estate segment adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $14 million. Drilling down, sales in the improved development category totaled $17 million, including $15 million of sales from our Wildlight development project north of Jacksonville, Florida; $700,000 for an industrial lease parcel in Kitsap County, Washington; and $400,000 from our Heartwood development project south of Savannah, Georgia.

房地產部門第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1400 萬美元。向下鑽取，改進開發類別的銷售額總計 1700 萬美元，其中包括我們位於佛羅里達州傑克遜維爾北部的 Wildlight 開發項目的 1500 萬美元銷售額； 700,000 美元用於華盛頓州 Kitsap 縣的一個工業租賃地塊； 400,000 美元來自佐治亞州薩凡納南部的 Heartwood 開發項目。

Sales in Wildlight included a $7.3 million sale of 87 acres to an industrial park developer and a $3 million sale of 16 acres for a senior housing community. On the residential side, we also sold a 74 lot residential pod to a national homebuilder for $4.3 million and 13 developed lots for $800,000 at an average base price of $65,000 per lot.

Wildlight 的銷售額包括以 730 萬美元的價格向一家工業園區開發商出售 87 英畝的土地，以及以 300 萬美元的價格向一個高級住宅社區出售 16 英畝的土地。在住宅方面，我們還以 430 萬美元的價格向一家全國住宅建築商出售了一個 74 塊住宅區，並以 800,000 美元的價格將 13 個開發地塊出售給了一家國家住宅建築商，平均底價為每塊地 65,000 美元。

Sales in our Heartwood development project consisted of 10 developed residential lots at an average base price of roughly $43,000 per lot. While Heartwood is still in its early stages, we are excited about the 2 new Hyundai facilities that have been announced in Bryan County, Georgia. With an estimated 9,500 jobs being created within a 30-minute drive from Heartwood, we believe the project is well situated to capture incremental demand from these facilities as well as the ancillary suppliers they are likely to attract.

我們的 Heartwood 開發項目的銷售額包括 10 個開發的住宅地塊，平均底價約為每地塊 43,000 美元。雖然 Heartwood 仍處於早期階段，但我們對在佐治亞州布賴恩縣宣布的 2 個新的現代工廠感到興奮。據估計，從 Heartwood 出發 30 分鐘車程內將創造 9,500 個工作崗位，我們相信該項目的位置非常適合捕捉這些設施以及它們可能吸引的輔助供應商的增量需求。

Overall, our Wildlight and Heartwood development projects continue to benefit from favorable migration and demographic trends, relatively affordable price points and a diverse mix of residential, commercial and industrial -- uses that each help to catalyze demand for one another.

總體而言，我們的 Wildlight 和 Heartwood 開發項目繼續受益於有利的移民和人口趨勢、相對實惠的價格點以及住宅、商業和工業的多樣化組合——每一種用途都有助於促進對彼此的需求。

Turning to the rural category. Fourth quarter sales totaled $12 million, consisting of approximately 2,000 acres at an average price of roughly $6,200 per acre. Key transactions included the sale of 615 acres in Nassau County, Florida for $3.8 million or roughly $6,300 per acre and the sale of 290 acres of former pulp Resources property in Jefferson County, Washington for $4.1 million or $14,200 per acre.

轉向農村類別。第四季度銷售額總計 1200 萬美元，佔地約 2,000 英畝，平均價格約為每英畝 6,200 美元。主要交易包括以 380 萬美元或每英畝約 6,300 美元的價格出售位於佛羅里達州拿騷縣的 615 英畝土地，以及以 410 萬美元或每英畝 14,200 美元的價格出售位於華盛頓州杰斐遜縣的 290 英畝前紙漿資源資產。

Now moving on to our outlook for 2023. Page 14 shows our financial guidance by segment and Schedule G of our earnings release provides a reconciliation of our guidance from net income attributable to Rayonier to adjusted EBITDA. For full year 2023, we expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $320 million. Net income attributable to Rayonier of $52 million to $73 million and EPS of $0.36 to $0.50.

現在轉向我們對 2023 年的展望。第 14 頁顯示了我們按部門劃分的財務指導，我們的收益發布的附表 G 提供了我們從歸屬於 Rayonier 的淨收入與調整後 EBITDA 的指導的對賬。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將達到 2.8 億美元至 3.2 億美元。歸屬於 Rayonier 的淨收入為 5200 萬美元至 7300 萬美元，每股收益為 0.36 美元至 0.50 美元。

As noted in our earnings release, we generally expect the results in the first half of the year will be meaningfully lower than results in the second half of the year as end market demand continues to normalize following the rapid rise in interest rates and associated market volatility. We further expect the year-over-year net income attributable to Rayonier and EPS will be impacted by increased depletion rates in our Southern Timber segment following the completion of the U.S. South acquisition that Dave discussed earlier.

正如我們在收益發布中指出的那樣，我們普遍預計上半年的業績將顯著低於下半年的業績，因為在利率快速上升和相關市場波動之後，終端市場需求繼續正常化.我們進一步預計，在 Dave 之前討論的美國南部收購完成後，歸屬於 Rayonier 和 EPS 的同比淨收入將受到我們南部木材部門損耗率上升的影響。

With respect to our individual segments, in our Southern Timber segment, we expect full year harvest volumes of 6.7 million to 7 million tons. The anticipated increase relative to the prior year reflects the additional volume associated with the acquisition of 137,800 acres in Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Louisiana. We also anticipate higher non-timber income for the full year 2023 as compared to 2022. However, we expect that these positive variances will be largely offset by lower weighted average stumpage realizations in 2023, relative to 2022 due to softer demand as well as higher cut and haul costs. Overall, we expect full year adjusted EBITDA in our Southern Timber segment of $145 million to $160 million.

關於我們的各個部門，在我們的南方木材部門，我們預計全年採伐量為 670 萬噸至 700 萬噸。與上一年相比的預期增長反映了與在德克薩斯州、佐治亞州、阿拉巴馬州和路易斯安那州收購 137,800 英畝土地相關的額外數量。我們還預計 2023 年全年的非木材收入將高於 2022 年。但是，我們預計這些積極的差異將在很大程度上被 2023 年相對於 2022 年較低的加權平均立木實現所抵消，原因是需求疲軟以及更高的削減和運輸成本。總體而言，我們預計南方木材部門全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.45 億至 1.6 億美元。

In our Pacific Northwest Timber segment, we expect full year harvest volumes of 1.5 million to 1.6 million tons. The anticipated decrease relative to the prior year reflects recent land sales activity, a more muted domestic demand outlook and an ongoing mix shift towards Douglas fir, which has a lower MBF to ton conversion ratio. Furthermore, we expect weighted average pricing in 2023 to decline relative to full year 2022 due to weaker macroeconomic conditions and lower lumber prices. Overall, we expect full year adjusted EBITDA in our Pacific Northwest Timber segment of $42 million to $52 million.

在我們的太平洋西北木材部門，我們預計全年採伐量為 150 萬噸至 160 萬噸。與上一年相比的預期下降反映了最近的土地銷售活動、更加低迷的國內需求前景以及向花旗鬆的持續混合轉變，花旗鬆的 MBF 與噸轉換率較低。此外，由於宏觀經濟狀況疲軟和木材價格下跌，我們預計 2023 年的加權平均價格將相對於 2022 年全年下降。總體而言，我們預計太平洋西北木材部門全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 4200 萬至 5200 萬美元。

In our New Zealand Timber segment, we expect full year harvest volumes of 2.5 million to 2.7 million tons. As Doug discussed, we are optimistic that export market conditions will continue to improve as the operating environment in China normalizes following the COVID-related disruptions that persisted throughout 2022. We further expect that favorable carbon credit pricing and volumes will contribute to improved results in 2023. Overall, we expect full year adjusted EBITDA in our New Zealand Timber segment of $58 million to $64 million.

在我們的新西蘭木材部門，我們預計全年採伐量為 250 萬噸至 270 萬噸。正如 Doug 所討論的那樣，我們樂觀地認為，隨著 2022 年持續存在的與 COVID 相關的中斷之後中國的運營環境正常化，出口市場狀況將繼續改善。我們進一步預計，有利的碳信用額度定價和數量將有助於在 2023 年取得更好的成績. 總體而言，我們預計新西蘭木材部門全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 5800 萬至 6400 萬美元。

In our Real Estate segment, we are encouraged by the continued interest in both our development projects and rural properties despite the higher interest rate environment. Overall, we expect full year adjusted EBITDA of $68 million to $77 million. We anticipate the real estate activity in 2023 will be significantly weighted to the second half of the year with the first quarter in particular being relatively light.

在我們的房地產部門，儘管利率環境較高，但我們對開發項目和農村物業的持續興趣令我們感到鼓舞。總體而言，我們預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 6800 萬至 7700 萬美元。我們預計 2023 年的房地產活動將明顯偏重於下半年，尤其是第一季度相對清淡。

I'll now turn the call back to Dave for closing comments.

我現在將電話轉回 Dave 以徵求結束意見。

Thanks, Mark. As I reflect on 2022, I'm pleased with how our team was able to work together to deliver strong financial performance while contending with considerable challenges during the year. These challenges included significant inflationary pressures, which were exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, a slowdown in U.S. housing activity driven by a dramatic increase in interest rates and a challenging export environment due to COVID-related disruptions in China. Nevertheless, our team was able to adapt quickly amid a very volatile business environment to deliver strong results throughout the year.

謝謝，馬克。當我回顧 2022 年時，我很高興我們的團隊能夠在這一年中共同努力以提供強勁的財務業績，同時應對相當大的挑戰。這些挑戰包括顯著的通脹壓力，俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭加劇了這種壓力，利率急劇上升導緻美國房地產活動放緩，以及中國因 COVID 相關中斷而導致的具有挑戰性的出口環境。儘管如此，我們的團隊能夠在瞬息萬變的商業環境中迅速適應，並在全年取得了強勁的業績。

While our products and markets are certainly not immune from the macroeconomic headwinds facing the broader economy, I believe that the dedication of our talented employees, the geographic diversity of our portfolio and the tensioned log markets in which we operate position us well to build long-term value for our shareholders across economic cycles.

雖然我們的產品和市場肯定不能免受更廣泛經濟面臨的宏觀經濟逆風的影響，但我相信，我們才華橫溢的員工的奉獻精神、我們產品組合的地域多樣性以及我們經營所在的緊張的原木市場使我們能夠很好地建立長期我們股東在整個經濟周期的長期價值。

On the capital markets strength, following a very active 2021, we entered 2022 with our balance sheet in an excellent position to deploy capital if the right growth opportunities emerged. To this end, we were pleased to close on 7 transactions totaling 140,000 acres for $458 million during the year, which was primarily driven by the large acquisition in the U.S. South that we closed in the fourth quarter.

在資本市場強勁的情況下，在經歷了非常活躍的 2021 年之後，我們進入 2022 年，如果出現合適的增長機會，我們的資產負債表將處於部署資本的絕佳位置。為此，我們很高興在這一年以 4.58 億美元的價格完成了 7 筆交易，總面積 140,000 英畝，這主要是由於我們在第四季度完成的美國南部的大型收購。

While we are very excited about these acquisitions, our active portfolio management strategy also remained focused on addition through subtraction as we completed a large disposition of nearly 11,000 acres of less strategic holdings during the fourth quarter for over $30 million.

雖然我們對這些收購感到非常興奮，但我們積極的投資組合管理戰略也仍然專注於通過減法來增加，因為我們在第四季度以超過 3000 萬美元的價格完成了近 11,000 英畝的非戰略性資產的大規模處置。

In sum, over the past year, we improved our portfolio through acquisitions that will further bolster our competitive positioning, recycled less productive capital toward uses with a better risk return profile and opportunistically raised capital through our ATM program to fund growth opportunities.

總而言之，在過去的一年裡，我們通過收購改善了我們的投資組合，這將進一步鞏固我們的競爭地位，將生產率較低的資本回收到具有更好風險回報狀況的用途，並通過我們的 ATM 計劃機會性地籌集資金，為增長機會提供資金。

In addition to our focus on achieving important financial goals and ongoing portfolio management objectives, we also continued to advance initiatives related to nature-based solutions throughout the year. We made great strides in advancing various opportunities in solar energy, carbon capture and storage and voluntary carbon markets. As we move forward, we believe we are well positioned to capitalize on these nascent business opportunities, and we'll continue allocating resources as these markets develop. All said, I'm confident that the operational flexibility afforded by our pure play timber REIT model, the ongoing improvements to our portfolio and the resiliency of our team will enable us to stay focused on long-term value creation as we continue to navigate the uncertainty facing the U.S. housing market and broader economy in 2023.

除了我們專注於實現重要的財務目標和持續的投資組合管理目標外，我們還在全年繼續推進與基於自然的解決方案相關的舉措。我們在推進太陽能、碳捕獲和儲存以及自願碳市場方面的各種機會方面取得了長足進步。隨著我們向前邁進，我們相信我們已做好充分準備利用這些新生的商機，並且我們將隨著這些市場的發展繼續分配資源。總而言之，我相信我們的純木材房地產投資信託模型提供的運營靈活性、我們投資組合的持續改進以及我們團隊的彈性將使我們能夠在繼續探索的同時專注於長期價值創造2023 年美國房地產市場和更廣泛的經濟面臨的不確定性。

Before turning the call back over to the operator, I'd also like to congratulate Mark and Doug on their recent promotions. In late January, we announced that Mark has been appointed to the additional position of President. Mark has been a valued partner to me over the last several years, and we are pleased to be expanding his leadership role within the company. In addition to his current duties as CFO, Mark will be taking on a greater role in leading our strategic planning efforts as well as participating in broader operational and personnel decision-making.

在將電話轉回接線員之前，我還要祝賀 Mark 和 Doug 最近的晉升。一月下旬，我們宣布馬克已被任命為總裁的額外職位。在過去的幾年裡，馬克一直是我重要的合作夥伴，我們很高興能夠擴大他在公司內的領導角色。除了目前擔任首席財務官的職責外，Mark 還將在領導我們的戰略規劃工作以及參與更廣泛的運營和人事決策方面發揮更大的作用。

Additionally, we announced that Doug has been promoted to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Resource Officer. In this expanded role, Doug will continue to oversee our global forestry operations while also devoting more time toward developing business opportunities around nature-based solutions. We believe these announcements underscore our commitment to continuously developing talent, including our senior leaders, our thoughtful approach to succession planning and our continued focus on allocating resources to the emerging opportunities for timberland owners in a low carbon economy.

此外，我們還宣布 Doug 已晉升為執行副總裁兼首席資源官。在這一擴大的角色中，道格將繼續監督我們的全球林業業務，同時還將投入更多時間圍繞基於自然的解決方案開發商機。我們相信，這些公告強調了我們對不斷培養人才（包括我們的高級領導）的承諾、我們深思熟慮的繼任計劃方法以及我們繼續專注於為林地所有者在低碳經濟中的新機會分配資源。

This concludes our prepared remarks, and I'll now turn it back over to the operator for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束，我現在將其轉回給接線員提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mark Weintraub。

Thanks for the details, Dave, mark. So first, just a couple of questions, if I could. One, so the more tensioned wood baskets in the South, which help you when things are good. Does that mean that things soften a bit more when things are weak and then you get more upside when they tighten again in the future kind of similar to how in the Pacific Northwest, there's a bit more volatility or not necessarily? What's your view on that?

感謝您提供詳細信息，戴夫，馬克。首先，如果可以的話，我只想問幾個問題。一，所以南方的木籃子更緊，當事情好的時候它會幫助你。這是否意味著當事物疲軟時，事物會更加軟化，然後當它們在未來再次收緊時，你會獲得更多的上行空間，有點類似於太平洋西北地區，波動性更大或不一定？你對此有何看法？

Yes. This is Doug. I'll take a swing at that one first. Yes, I think you've kind of categorized that correctly. For example, some of the highest-priced baskets that we saw the biggest year-over-year improvements in 2022, and while we're seeing some decline relative to those levels reached last year, the absolute pricing level in major of our markets is still very favorable compared to the South as a whole and we're still seeing weighted average total pricing exceeding '20 '21 levels. But I think that price elasticity, you point out, is exactly right that when there's tension, we see prices really ramp up, but then we also can see them slowly come back down off this sometimes.

是的。這是道格。我先試試看那個。是的，我認為您的分類是正確的。例如，我們看到一些價格最高的籃子在 2022 年同比漲幅最大，雖然我們看到相對於去年達到的水平有所下降，但我們主要市場的絕對定價水平是與整個南方相比仍然非常有利，我們仍然看到加權平均總定價超過 '20'21 水平。但我認為，你指出的價格彈性是完全正確的，當存在緊張局勢時，我們看到價格確實上漲，但有時我們也可以看到它們慢慢回落。

I think it's also worth noting, Mark, that the overall pricing is quite a bit higher in those tension markets. And so again, we saw very significant lifts in '21 and then again in 2022 in some of those more tensioned markets, whereas bottom quartile markets really saw a relatively flat pricing or very modest increases. And so again, while we have seen prices come off, those extraordinary highs that we saw in 2022, the absolute pricing level in those markets is still considerably higher.

馬克，我認為同樣值得注意的是，在那些緊張的市場中，整體定價要高得多。因此，我們再次看到 21 年和 2022 年在一些更加緊張的市場中出現了非常顯著的提升，而底部四分之一市場確實看到了相對平穩的定價或非常適度的增長。因此，雖然我們看到價格下跌，我們在 2022 年看到的那些非常高的價格，但這些市場的絕對價格水平仍然高得多。

Understood. And then second, in New Zealand, if I could kind of look back the last since 7, 8 years, EBITDA range from $55 million, I think, to $100 million plus. And your guidance for next year is obviously towards the low end of what we've seen. Can you talk about kind of what you think the medium to longer term right type of normalized level is? And how important is China to where -- when we start seeing higher profitability there? And then any more color you can provide about the changes in the China property market initiatives and -- et cetera, as to how that might factor into the timing of when the improvement might develop?

明白了。其次，在新西蘭，如果我能回顧一下 7、8 年來的最後一次，我認為 EBITDA 的範圍從 5500 萬美元到 1 億美元以上。你對明年的指導顯然是我們所看到的低端。你能談談你認為正常化水平的中長期正確類型是什麼嗎？當我們開始看到那裡更高的盈利能力時，中國對哪裡有多重要？然後，關於中國房地產市場舉措的變化，您可以提供更多顏色，以及 - 等等，關於這可能如何影響改善可能發展的時間？

Yes, sure, Mark. This is Mark. I'll take that. I mean in terms of a normalized EBITDA there, again, we -- to your point, I mean, we've seen EBITDA as low as the 30s back a number of years ago and sort of peaking probably in the '90s. And so New Zealand has always been more volatile, and that's really driven by the much more heavy reliance on export markets, just the cost structure there. A lot of the land is leased. You've got a much higher cost component in terms of delivering wood in the export market.

是的，當然，馬克。這是馬克。我會接受的。我的意思是，就標準化的 EBITDA 而言，我們 - 就你的觀點而言，我的意思是，我們已經看到 EBITDA 低至多年前的 30 年代，並且可能在 90 年代達到頂峰。因此，新西蘭的波動性一直比較大，這實際上是由於對出口市場的依賴程度更高，這就是那裡的成本結構。很多土地是租來的。在出口市場交付木材方面，你的成本要高得多。

So obviously, headline price volatility translates to greater margin volatility in New Zealand, certainly relative to, say, the U.S. South where we're -- a lot of our sales are stumpage. And so it's a very high EBITDA margin on the stumpage sales. I certainly don't think that New Zealand is going to retreat to levels that we saw in '13, '14, '15. But obviously, we've normalized kind of off of the levels that we saw 3, 4 years ago as well.

很明顯，總體價格波動轉化為新西蘭更大的利潤率波動，當然相對於我們所在的美國南部——我們的很多銷售都是立木。因此，立木銷售的 EBITDA 利潤率非常高。我當然不認為新西蘭會退回到我們在 13 年、14 年和 15 年看到的水平。但顯然，我們也已經將 3、4 年前的水平正常化了。

I think -- as it relates to China, obviously, China was very challenged in 2022, given the COVID containment measures as well as some challenges in the property sector there. I'd say we're very optimistic that now that China is reopening. We've already seen some bounce back in export pricing there. As the supply chain in general has loosened up, we've seen some relaxation of export freight costs there. And obviously, carbon has been a bright spot in New Zealand as well. So a lot of moving pieces, I'd be reluctant to kind of characterize what we see as a normalized EBITDA. But certainly, we're hopefully trending back towards that type of level here as we move into 2023.

我認為——就中國而言，顯然，考慮到 COVID 遏制措施以及那裡房地產行業的一些挑戰，中國在 2022 年面臨著非常大的挑戰。我想說的是，現在中國正在重新開放，我們對此非常樂觀。我們已經看到那裡的出口價格有所反彈。由於供應鏈總體上已經放鬆，我們已經看到那裡的出口運費有所下降。顯然，碳在新西蘭也是一個亮點。所以有很多動人的部分，我不願意描述我們所看到的標準化 EBITDA 的特徵。但可以肯定的是，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們有望回到這種水平。

Mark, this is Dave. I'd add just a couple of things I'd add to that is keep in mind that a lot of the drivers are also around relative supply from other regions, and you've had historically, a lot of wood going into China from Russia as well as Australia. Those 2 sources are essentially done. And what really overwhelmed the last number of years was flow of salvage wood from Europe, which took Europe's market share from essentially next to nothing to right behind New Zealand.

馬克，這是戴夫。我想補充幾件事，請記住，很多驅動因素也來自其他地區的相對供應，而且從歷史上看，有很多木材從俄羅斯進入中國以及澳大利亞。這兩個來源基本上已經完成。過去幾年真正壓倒一切的是來自歐洲的回收木材流，這使歐洲的市場份額從幾乎為零到僅次於新西蘭。

And so I think where we have a lot of optimism is that is tapering off as they've essentially gone through that wood. And we feel like New Zealand is very well positioned going forward, and we expect to see less volatility certainly than we had over the last year in things like shipping costs. And so notwithstanding some of the headwinds in 2022, we remain pretty optimistic about how that's positioned. And it shows in our cash flow generation on a per acre basis is superior to all of our other regions.

因此，我認為我們非常樂觀的地方是，隨著他們基本上已經穿過那片樹林，這種樂觀情緒正在逐漸減弱。我們覺得新西蘭在未來的發展中處於非常有利的地位，我們預計在運輸成本等方面的波動肯定會比去年少。因此，儘管 2022 年會遇到一些不利因素，但我們對其定位仍然非常樂觀。它表明我們每英畝產生的現金流量優於我們所有其他地區。

Right. And I guess -- and I recognize you're juggling lots of variables coming up with your various outlooks by regions. But I know it's kind of the range you had for New Zealand is actually maybe less wide than you had it for some of the U.S. regions, which I guess surprised me a little bit given the uncertainties of exactly when and how China plays out as well as the historical greater volatility. And I don't know if that's communicating something specific? Or again, it's really just a function of your juggling lots of variables and coming up with your best assessments and that's the way it came out? Any color on that?

正確的。我想——我知道你在根據地區的不同前景來處理很多變量。但我知道你對新西蘭的範圍實際上可能比你對美國某些地區的範圍要小，考慮到中國在何時以及如何發揮作用的不確定性，我想這讓我有點吃驚由於歷史波動較大。我不知道那是否傳達了特定的信息？或者，這真的只是你處理大量變量並提出最佳評估的結果，結果就是這樣嗎？上面有顏色嗎？

Yes. This is Doug again. I'll take the start this one. I think what that shows is we really are having some optimism around what's happening in China as they come out their COVID restrictions. Prior to the Lunar New Year, we saw demand really pick up. The headline numbers only averaged 55,000 cubes per day, which doesn't sound that amazing. But really, what we saw is a real pickup towards the right before the Lunar New Year. And as mentioned by, I think it was Mark, we've seen a trend where the long brokers have additional confidence now to hold inventories because they're forecasting higher demand and pricing after the holidays. So we're foreseeing some potential really green shoots in that area.

是的。這又是道格。我將從這個開始。我認為這表明我們真的對中國正在發生的事情持樂觀態度，因為他們出台了 COVID 限制。在農曆新年前，我們看到需求真正回升。標題數字平均每天只有 55,000 個立方體，這聽起來並不那麼驚人。但實際上，我們看到的是在農曆新年前向右移動的真正回升。正如馬克所提到的，我認為是馬克，我們看到了一種趨勢，即多頭經紀人現在更有信心持有庫存，因為他們預測假期後需求和定價會更高。因此，我們預見到該地區可能會出現一些真正的綠芽。

And then with -- I think you mentioned there that the property markets, and we've seen quite a bit -- policymakers and all governments have pledged quite a bit of money to restart construction in the areas, and we're seeing that start to flow back through into demand also. So the People's Bank of China have recently launched a CNY 200 billion relending program and quite a few regional banks have also kind of matched that.

然後——我想你在那裡提到了房地產市場，我們已經看到了很多——政策制定者和所有政府都承諾提供相當多的資金來重啟這些地區的建設，我們正在看到這個開始也流回需求。因此，中國人民銀行最近啟動了一項 2000 億元人民幣的再貸款計劃，不少地區性銀行也相應地進行了相應的配合。

And so kind of what we're hearing kind of on the ground is that expecting property sales to stabilize at lower levels, obviously, in these coming months, but then to rebound gradually from the second quarter onward. And that's really being help with that reopening of China.

因此，我們在實地聽到的是，預計房地產銷售在未來幾個月內顯然會穩定在較低水平，但隨後會從第二季度開始逐漸反彈。這確實有助於中國的重新開放。

Okay. I promise you, last one just on the same thing. So I guess what I'm trying to understand is, if things play out as you are kind of seeing, is that particular -- New Zealand, is that one region where maybe if we look into next year, you can really get an outsized increase relative to what one might expect in North America? Or is that not necessarily a right avenue to be thinking about at this point? Again, I apologize because that's looking quite far out.

好的。我向你保證，最後一個只是在同一件事上。所以我想我想了解的是，如果事情像你所看到的那樣發展，那麼新西蘭是那個特別的地區，也許如果我們明年看看，你真的可以得到一個超大的相對於北美人的預期有所增加？還是這不一定是此時要考慮的正確途徑？再次，我很抱歉，因為這看起來很遙遠。

I mean, it's certainly possible, Mark. Again, if you look at where New Zealand EBITDA has been last year and kind of what we're forecasting for 2023, it's generally kind of below the level that we've averaged for the last 5 years. And so '22 is obviously very challenging. We're expecting to see some recovery in 2023. And to your point, if that trajectory continues, we're obviously not providing 2024 guidance, but you could certainly see some outsized gains there.

我的意思是，這當然有可能，馬克。同樣，如果您查看新西蘭去年的 EBITDA 以及我們對 2023 年的預測，它通常會低於我們過去 5 年的平均水平。因此，'22 顯然非常具有挑戰性。我們預計 2023 年會出現一些復甦。就你的觀點而言，如果這種軌跡繼續下去，我們顯然不會提供 2024 年的指導，但你肯定會在那裡看到一些巨大的收益。

I would just add one more thing that's kind of probably not appreciated a little more in the details. But due to some few mega issues that we've had being banned in New Zealand, the India market has not been an option for us for most of last year. And we're seeing discussions between India and the New Zealand official is basically around that. And so we think that, that market to India could also open up for us in this current year and the next year. So some more optimism around that.

我只想再添加一件在細節上可能不太受歡迎的東西。但由於我們在新西蘭被禁止的一些大問題，去年大部分時間印度市場都不是我們的選擇。我們看到印度和新西蘭官員之間的討論基本上就是圍繞這個展開的。因此我們認為，印度市場也可以在今年和明年為我們開放。所以對此更加樂觀。

I think another -- lastly, Mark, I think another thing to think about is, historically, carbon credit sales have not been a very big factor in New Zealand, and that market has really evolved to a point where it's making meaningful contributions last year, and we expect that's going to play a role going forward as well.

我認為另一個 - 最後，馬克，我認為另一件需要考慮的事情是，從歷史上看，碳信用銷售在新西蘭並不是一個非常重要的因素，而且這個市場確實已經發展到去年做出有意義貢獻的程度，我們預計這也會在未來發揮作用。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Paul Quinn。

Just following on update on your comment on carbon markets. I saw that $21 million in sales in New Zealand in '22 versus kind of just over the $1 million that you did in '21. Maybe you could give us a background of what those -- How you achieved that and what your expectation is for '23?

剛剛更新了您對碳市場的評論。我看到 22 年新西蘭的銷售額為 2100 萬美元，而 21 年的銷售額略高於 100 萬美元。也許你可以給我們介紹一下那些 - 你是如何實現的以及你對'23的期望是什麼？

I'll start on that, and I'll let Doug provide a little bit more color. Keep in mind that historically, the carbon credit market there had been at a fairly low pricing level. And so we had sort of taken a very opportunistic approach. It was one of the reasons that we really didn't have much in the way of sales a couple of years ago, but that market really took off. And they conduct quarterly auctions by the government where they release carbon credits out onto the market, and we watch that pretty carefully. And that started giving us confidence that that the market was going to head up.

我將從那裡開始，我會讓 Doug 提供更多顏色。請記住，從歷史上看，那裡的碳信用市場一直處於相當低的定價水平。所以我們採取了一種非常機會主義的方法。這是幾年前我們確實沒有太多銷售方式的原因之一，但那個市場真的起飛了。他們通過政府進行季度拍賣，將碳信用額度釋放到市場上，我們非常仔細地觀察。這開始讓我們相信市場將會上漲。

And some of that's also predicated on prices that the government sets where they will release incremental carbon credits onto the market. And those prices tended to lead the market up. And so it gave us a lot of confidence to bring more volume forward last year of our credits. And Doug can provide a little bit more color as to as to where we stand on the credits as we enter this year, but it's definitely playing a bigger role in how we think about those -- that region.

其中一些還取決於政府設定的價格，他們將向市場釋放增量碳信用額度。這些價格往往會引領市場上漲。因此，它給了我們很大的信心，使我們去年的信用額度增加。當我們進入今年時，道格可以提供更多關於我們在學分上的立場的顏色，但它肯定在我們如何看待那些 - 那個地區方面發揮更大的作用。

Yes. Thanks, Dave. I think as Dave mentioned, with those actions, the government does set these cost containment reserve prices that basically at that point, if the price is reached, they'll release some more credits into the market. And so they often kind of do tend to set I wouldn't say a floor, but that's where targeting seems to be towards. And so we saw -- the current one is around $80. And so we saw pricing last year in the $70 to $80 range. And as Dave said, it's markedly up from years before where it's been as low as single digits to probably more recently in the $30 to $40 range. So we saw a pretty drastic step-up and the opportunity to execute on those as we said, the opportunistic around that.

是的。謝謝，戴夫。我認為正如戴夫提到的那樣，通過這些行動，政府確實設定了這些成本控制底價，基本上在那個時候，如果達到這個價格，他們將向市場釋放更多的信貸。因此，他們通常確實傾向於設定我不會說底線，但這就是目標似乎指向的地方。所以我們看到 - 目前的價格約為 80 美元。所以我們看到去年的定價在 70 美元到 80 美元之間。正如戴夫所說，它從幾年前的低至個位數明顯上升到最近可能在 30 到 40 美元的範圍內。因此，我們看到了一個非常大的進步，並有機會像我們所說的那樣執行那些，圍繞它的機會主義。

Those are all New Zealand dollars?

都是新西蘭元嗎？

Sorry, all New Zealand dollars. Yes, thanks, Dave for correction on that. And as we go into this year, we're building new units as we go, growing them up, but we also come in with roughly around 1.6 million in -- then use that we had. We do have to surrender units as we harvest and then we also gain units as we grow timber. And so as we go through the year, we have the opportunity to sell some more and can be somewhere. I don't want to give out our exact -- what our plans are to the market but exceeded at the end of the year over 2 million units type of thing and potentially more than that, just depends on how we see the pricing flow through year and how -- which side to execute.

抱歉，所有新西蘭元。是的，謝謝 Dave 的更正。隨著我們進入今年，我們正在建造新的單位，不斷發展壯大，但我們也帶來了大約 160 萬——然後使用我們擁有的。我們確實必須在收穫時交出單位，然後在種植木材時也獲得單位。因此，當我們度過這一年時，我們有機會賣出更多的東西並且可以在某個地方。我不想給出我們確切的 - 我們對市場的計劃是什麼，但在年底超過 200 萬件類型的東西，可能更多，只取決於我們如何看待定價流程年份和方式——執行哪一方。

Okay. And if I could compare that to what you're seeing in North American markets on the carbon side?

好的。如果我可以將其與您在北美市場上看到的碳方面進行比較？

Yes, the North American markets, those are still voluntary. So basically, not -- and they still have a lot of standardization, I guess, what I would say, So we -- and there are a few obviously firms that are basically focused on getting that standardization. But we've seen as everyone is seeing some issues around people talking about green washing and different things. And so what I think is happening now is that the buyers are starting to figure out what is a valuable credit to them and looking for those. And so we've really seen pricing move around in the single digits to $20, $30 a ton depending on how it's being produced.

是的，北美市場仍然是自願的。所以基本上，不是 - 他們仍然有很多標準化，我想，我會說，所以我們 - 顯然有一些公司基本上專注於獲得標準化。但我們已經看到，每個人都看到圍繞人們談論綠色洗滌和不同事物的一些問題。因此，我認為現在正在發生的事情是，買家開始弄清楚什麼對他們來說是有價值的信用，並正在尋找這些信用。因此，我們確實看到價格以個位數波動，達到每噸 20 美元、30 美元，具體取決於其生產方式。

And so I think what we're still waiting on in that market is for more standardization and for the market to realize what the value is and to possibly get rid of some of these lower value credits that are out there right now. So we've got some projects in our back pockets, but we haven't actually registered those yet because we feel like there's still opportunity in that market -- yet before we do that.

所以我認為我們在那個市場上仍在等待的是更多的標準化，讓市場意識到價值是什麼，並可能擺脫目前存在的一些低價值信用。所以我們有一些項目在我們的口袋裡，但我們還沒有真正註冊這些項目，因為我們覺得那個市場仍然有機會——但在我們這樣做之前。

Okay. And then just turning over overall, it looks like with your '23 guidance, you're expecting to slow down in North mark on the timberland side, that percentage of real estate of EBITDA -- of your total EBITDA is kind of holding up a lot better than the new timberlands business. Just wondering if that's a lag and you expect a slowdown in '24 as a result? Or maybe you could comment on that.

好的。然後總體上看，根據你的 23 年指導，你預計林地一側的 North mark 會放緩，EBITDA 的房地產百分比 - 在你的總 EBITDA 中有點支撐比新的林地生意好多了。只是想知道這是否是一個滯後，你預計 24 年會因此放緩？或者你可以對此發表評論。

I think some of what you're seeing, Paul, is that we have these 2 big projects, one that's in the Jacksonville, Florida area, the other in Savannah, Georgia. And as they kind of pick up heads of steam, they have been running at more kind of regular levels. And so over the past number of years, we've seen that Wildlight project here in Florida growing larger and larger. And meanwhile, the project in Savannah is really just getting started, but we're very encouraged by the developments that we've seen there and we're leveraging a lot of the learnings that we've had here.

保羅，我想你看到的一些是我們有這兩個大項目，一個在佛羅里達州傑克遜維爾地區，另一個在佐治亞州薩凡納。隨著他們開始加速，他們一直在以更正常的水平運行。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們看到佛羅里達州的 Wildlight 項目越來越大。與此同時，薩凡納的項目才剛剛開始，但我們對那裡的發展感到非常鼓舞，我們正在利用我們在這裡學到的很多知識。

And one of the things that we're particularly excited about, there's a large investment being made by Hyundai around electric vehicles and other aspects that's going to bring substantial employment into the area right adjacent to our project. And we think that's going to translate into further demand. And one of the things that we've done in both our Florida and our Georgia projects is we've got a really nice mix of product types from developed lots to residential pods, to build-for-sale, to multifamily. All of those things, I think, are helping to propel the momentum on those 2 projects. And so I think that those 2 projects, as they exit kind of their beginning stages, are going to supply a more stable stream of cash flow going forward.

我們特別興奮的一件事是，現代汽車圍繞電動汽車和其他方面進行了大量投資，這將為我們項目附近的地區帶來大量就業機會。我們認為這將轉化為進一步的需求。我們在佛羅里達州和佐治亞州的項目中所做的其中一件事是，我們擁有非常好的產品類型組合，從開發地塊到住宅吊艙，再到待售建築，再到多戶家庭。我認為，所有這些都有助於推動這兩個項目的發展勢頭。因此，我認為這兩個項目在退出初期階段後，將提供更穩定的現金流。

And then shifting to our more rural product mix. That's one that's always been relatively stable. And I think as we've seen pressures on land values. You've seen that translate in terms of the types of values that we're getting. And we're really focused on selling lands where we can get a good premium. And so we've been happy with the progress that we've seen on the real estate side and don't see that kind of tailing off as we go down the road.

然後轉向我們更多的農村產品組合。那是一個一直相對穩定的人。我認為我們已經看到了土地價值的壓力。您已經看到根據我們獲得的值類型進行轉換。我們真的專注於出售我們可以獲得高溢價的土地。因此，我們對我們在房地產方面看到的進展感到滿意，並且在我們前進的過程中沒有看到那種拖尾。

Okay. That's great. And then just overall, I mean, one of your competitors mentioned that their expectation for 2023 timberland sales was more muted than what we saw in '22. Do you have the same expectation? Or what is your view of the future on M&A?

好的。那太棒了。然後總的來說，我的意思是，您的一位競爭對手提到他們對 2023 年林地銷售的預期比我們在 22 年看到的要低。你有同樣的期待嗎？或者您對併購的未來有何看法？

Yes, I wouldn't -- I'm not sure I agree with that. And -- but having said that, it's a hard thing to peg. And so you have -- increasingly, you have situations where a lot of the -- a lot of the TMO downstream investment clients are controlling exits of sales and forcing that to occur through separate accounts. And as that occurs, you really have to kind of get into the mindset of those ultimate owners of those properties, and they're all over the board.

是的，我不會——我不確定我是否同意這一點。而且 - 但話雖如此，這很難確定。因此，你有 - 越來越多的情況 - 許多 TMO 下游投資客戶正在控制銷售退出並迫使其通過單獨的賬戶進行。當這種情況發生時，你真的必須了解這些財產的最終所有者的心態，他們無處不在。

You've got some people that had desire to sell during COVID that weren't able to because you really couldn't do much due diligence. And I think that contributed to some of the outsized volume that we saw last year, and I suspect there's still maybe some of that at play.

你有一些人希望在 COVID 期間出售，但由於你真的不能做太多的盡職調查而無法出售。我認為這促成了我們去年看到的一些超大數量，我懷疑其中一些可能仍在發揮作用。

I think another thing to keep in mind is as we've seen stronger pricing, we've seen the NCREIF Index is now over $2,000 an acre in the South and certainly on the higher-quality properties like the one that we completed in Q4, where you're seeing really outsized cash flow generation, those are generating large values. And I think that's going to have the potential of spurring additional volume on the market as the ultimate owners of those properties decide they want to cash in.

我認為另一件要記住的事情是，我們已經看到更強勁的定價，我們已經看到 NCREIF 指數現在在南部每英畝超過 2,000 美元，當然還有我們在第四季度完成的更高質量的房產，在你看到真正超大的現金流產生的地方，那些產生了巨大的價值。而且我認為這將有可能刺激市場上的額外交易量，因為這些房產的最終所有者決定他們想要兌現。

The flip side of that, I think, is there's a greater recognition that you've got optionality around ESG and carbon-related values. And I think some -- there will be some owners that want to stick around and see if they can see that translate into their properties. As we look across the 3 geographies that we're in, I think we see more potential for strong -- stronger activity in the U.S. South than we do in the Northwest and New Zealand. I think we've seen much more tepid volume of offerings in those 2 geographies, and we expect that to continue.

我認為，另一方面，人們更加認識到您在 ESG 和碳相關價值方面具有選擇性。我認為有些 - 會有一些所有者想要留下來，看看他們是否可以看到這會轉化為他們的財產。當我們審視我們所處的三個地區時，我認為我們看到美國南部比西北部和新西蘭更有可能進行更強勁的活動。我認為我們在這兩個地區看到了更多不溫不火的產品，我們希望這種情況會繼續下去。

Our last question will come from [Kelsley Hide] with Raymond James.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 [Kelsley Hide] 和 Raymond James。

Mark and Doug, congratulations on the new roles.

Mark 和 Doug，祝賀您擔任新角色。

Look at the 2023 outlook for the sell and Timber segment. I was hoping you could provide some additional class to what your demand picture kind of looks like right now? And how much of an impact are you expecting that to have on log pricing? And also if there's been any changes to the assumptions for the recent acquisition?

看看 2023 年銷售和木材部門的前景。我希望你能為你現在的需求圖片提供一些額外的類？您預計這會對原木定價產生多大影響？另外，最近收購的假設是否有任何變化？

Yes. There are always moving pieces in kind of terms of our geographic mix and other factors, and we're looking at it kind of year-over-year comparisons. And we have seen some decline for demand and particularly along the East Coast here of the U.S. And a lot of that -- we're in a drought situation right now, so there's plentiful wood out there. But also, I think given the kind of macroeconomic uncertainty at the end of 2022, we have our customers, we're trying to manage inventories quite closely, and they were reluctant to secure log volume by locking and pricing beyond Q1.

是的。就我們的地理組合和其他因素而言，總是有一些變化，我們正在研究它的年復一年比較。我們看到需求有所下降，尤其是在美國東海岸。其中很多——我們現在處於乾旱狀態，所以那裡有豐富的木材。而且，我認為考慮到 2022 年底宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們有我們的客戶，我們正試圖非常密切地管理庫存，他們不願意通過鎖定和定價超過第一季度來確保原木量。

But as we progress through the month of January, and we see more positive news on lumber pricing and homebuilder sentiment and things like that, we start to see increased interest by mills to secure forward volume. So I think we're cautiously optimistic that things are starting to move around and turn around in the market and those things. But we did factor that in as we thought about our guidance.

但隨著 1 月份的進展，我們看到更多關於木材定價和房屋建築商情緒等方面的積極消息，我們開始看到鋼廠對確保遠期成交量的興趣增加。所以我認為我們對市場和那些事情開始發生變化持謹慎樂觀態度。但我們在考慮我們的指南時確實考慮到了這一點。

With respect to Project D, the new acquisitions that we talked about we take the combined acquisitions with our overall harvest plans. And then there's always some changes we look to stay nimble with our operations based on how we see the current market conditions. And so we're working those in as we think about them and basically take into account how we think about the market and where we should harvest and where we should maybe pull back and allow markets to regain strength.

關於項目 D，我們談到的新收購我們將合併收購與我們的整體收穫計劃結合起來。然後總會有一些變化，我們希望根據我們對當前市場狀況的看法來保持運營的敏捷性。因此，我們在考慮這些問題時正在處理這些問題，並且基本上考慮了我們如何看待市場以及我們應該收穫的地方以及我們應該撤回並讓市場恢復實力的地方。

But overall, I'd say our estimates for that acquisition are largely intact. I don't think anything has changed in terms of our 10-year outlook or certainly our harvest flows that we provided when we announced that acquisition.

但總的來說，我想說我們對該收購的估計基本不變。我認為我們的 10 年展望或我們在宣布收購時提供的收穫流量方面沒有任何變化。

Absolutely correct.

完全正確。

Okay. That's pretty helpful. And just to follow-up on that. You noted that you're seeing increases in cost. I'm just trying to get a little bit of gauge as to how significant increases may be. Should we expect something similar to give your growth in 2022? Or do you think it's going to come out a little higher?

好的。這很有幫助。只是為了跟進。你注意到你看到成本增加了。我只是想稍微了解一下增長的顯著程度。我們是否應該期待類似的東西來促進您在 2022 年的增長？或者你認為它會更高一點？

We've actually seen costs moderate over the last couple of quarters. So really, while there really more folks are on diesel now. Labor seems to have settled down and equipment is starting to work through the process -- through the chain, supply chain, things like that. So I would say that we still see increased costs, but they're not near what they were kind of going from '21 into '22.

我們實際上已經看到過去幾個季度的成本適中。所以真的，雖然現在真的有更多的人在使用柴油。勞動力似乎已經安定下來，設備開始在整個過程中發揮作用——通過鏈條、供應鍊等。所以我想說我們仍然看到成本增加，但它們並不接近從 21 年到 22 年的水平。

We are showing no further questions at this time.

我們目前沒有進一步的問題。

Thank you. This is Collin Mings. I'd like to thank everybody for joining us. Please contact us with any follow-up questions.

謝謝。這是科林·明斯。我要感謝大家加入我們。如有任何後續問題，請聯繫我們。

That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。