Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc (RYAN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today for Ryan Specialty Holdings' first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. In addition to this call, the company filed a press release with the SEC earlier this afternoon, which has also been posted to its website at ryanspecialty.com.

下午好，感謝您今天參加 Ryan Specialty Holdings 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。除了此次電話會議之外，該公司今天下午早些時候向美國證券交易委員會提交了一份新聞稿，該新聞稿也已發佈在其網站 ryanspecialty.com 上。

On today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. Investors should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these discussed today. Listeners are encouraged to review the more detailed discussion of these risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC.

在今天的電話會議上，管理層準備的評論和對您的問題的回答可能包含前瞻性陳述。投資者不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層當前的預期和信念，並受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與今天討論的結果有重大差異。鼓勵聽眾查看公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中對這些風險因素的更詳細討論。

The company assumes no duty to update such forward-looking statements in the future, except as required by law. Additionally, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this call and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

除法律要求外，本公司不承擔將來更新此類前瞻性聲明的義務。此外，本次電話會議將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標不應單獨考慮或取代根據 GAAP 提供的財務資訊。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most closely comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP are included in the earnings release, which is filed with the SEC and available on the company's website.

這些非 GAAP 財務指標與按照 GAAP 編制的最接近可比較指標的對帳表包含在收益報告中，該報告已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 並可在公司網站上查閱。

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to the Founder and Executive Chairman of Ryan Specialty, Pat Ryan.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Ryan Specialty 的創辦人兼執行主席 Pat Ryan。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us to discuss our first-quarter results. With me on today's call is our CEO, Tim Turner; our President, Jeremiah Bickham; our CFO, Janice Hamilton; our CEO of Underwriting Managers, Miles Wuller; and our Head of Investor Relations, Nick Messick.

下午好，感謝您加入我們討論第一季的業績。參加今天電話會議的有我們的執行長 Tim Turner、我們的總裁傑裡邁亞·比克漢 (Jeremiah Bickham)、我們的財務長珍妮絲‧漢密爾頓 (Janice Hamilton)、我們的承銷管理公司執行長 Miles Wuller 以及我們的投資者關係主管尼克‧梅西克 (Nick Messick)。

The first quarter represented a strong start to the year. We grew total revenue 25%, driven by strong organic revenue growth of nearly 13%, and 13 percentage points from M&A. This is our largest contribution from M&A in over three years, partially offset by a slight decline in fiduciary investment income. Adjusted EBITDA grew 27.5% to 201 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points to 29.1%. Adjusted earnings per share grew 11.4% to $0.39, a very good quarter by any measure.

第一季是今年的一個強勁開端。我們的總收入成長了 25%，這得益於近 13% 的強勁有機收入成長以及 13 個百分點的併購收入成長。這是我們三年多來從併購中獲得的最大貢獻，但受託投資收入的輕微下降部分抵消了這一貢獻。調整後EBITDA成長27.5%至2.01億。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 60 個基點至 29.1%。調整後每股收益成長 11.4% 至 0.39 美元，無論以何種標準衡量，這都是一個非常好的季度。

Our growth was driven by strength and casualty across all three of our specialties, and modest growth in property, which is a credit to our ability to deliver value for our clients in a challenging property market.

我們的成長主要得益於我們三大專業領域的實力和意外保險，以及房地產領域的適度成長，這歸功於我們在充滿挑戰的房地產市場中為客戶創造價值的能力。

We also had significant top-line contributions from recent acquisitions, including velocity risk underwriters, which closed at the beginning of February. In April, we announced the acquisition of USQRisk and are very excited to welcome these new teammates into the Ryan Specialty family. Our robust M&A activity over the past two years, and since our founding, has advanced various aspects of our strategy, notably significantly expanded our total addressable market.

近期的收購也為我們帶來了顯著的收入貢獻，其中包括 2 月初完成的速度風險承保人交易。今年 4 月，我們宣布收購 USQRisk，並非常高興地歡迎這些新隊友加入 Ryan Specialty 大家庭。我們自成立以來，過去兩年強勁的併購活動推動了我們策略的各個方面，特別是顯著擴大了我們的整體目標市場。

We added expertise, augmented our capabilities to serve our clients across market segments, and broadened our international footprint. We added many new programs and unique MGUs, which provide us with greater advantages to extend our lead and delegated underwriting authority now, and over the long term.

我們增加了專業知識，增強了我們為各個細分市場客戶提供服務的能力，並擴大了我們的國際影響力。我們增加了許多新計劃和獨特的 MGU，這為我們現在和長期擴大我們的領先和委託承保提供了更大的優勢。

Stepping back, I want to spend a minute on the current environment. There's been an increased level of uncertainty around global trade, and the health of the broader economy. A read-through of this uncertainty into the real economy, inflationary pressures, and capital markets, raise elevated risks in the near and medium term. With our diversified set of businesses, and cycle-tested business model, focused on specialized expertise, and industry-leading talent, we believe we're well-positioned to navigate the challenging near-term environment, and win over the long-term, just as we've done for the past 15 years.

退一步來說，我想花一點時間討論當前的環境。全球貿易和整體經濟健康的不確定性日益增加。這種不確定性反映在實體經濟、通膨壓力和資本市場中，將導致近期和中期內風險上升。憑藉我們多元化的業務、經過週期考驗的商業模式、專注於專業知識和行業領先的人才，我們相信，正如我們過去 15 年所做的那樣，我們完全有能力應對充滿挑戰的短期環境，並贏得長期勝利。

Moving ahead, we expect that we will continue to deliver innovative solutions to our clients, generate industry-leading organic growth, execute our M&A strategy, and increase profitability while investing in our platform. All of this will drive significant additional value for our shareholders, and ensure we remain a top specialty insurance services firm in our industry.

展望未來，我們期望繼續為客戶提供創新解決方案，實現業界領先的有機成長，執行我們的併購策略，並在投資我們的平台的同時提高獲利能力。所有這些都將為我們的股東帶來巨大的附加價值，並確保我們繼續成為行業中頂級的專業保險服務公司。

I'm pleased to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tim Turner. Tim?

我很高興將電話轉給我們的執行長蒂姆·特納。提姆？

Thank you very much, Pat. Before discussing the results, I wanted to expand on Pat's comments and highlight the durability of Ryan Specialty's business model, with three particular points. We operate in the resilient specialty and E&S market. Many of our products are compulsory and we have built a differentiated platform with top-flight specialized talent.

非常感謝，帕特。在討論結果之前，我想擴展 Pat 的評論，並強調 Ryan Specialty 商業模式的持久性，特別指出三點。我們在彈性專業和 E&S 市場開展業務。我們的許多產品都是強制性的，我們已經建立了一個差異化的平台，擁有頂尖的專業人才。

First, insurance premiums have a long track record of growth. It is important to remember that US premium growth turned negative, in aggregate, only once over the past 60-plus years. As the world continues to become riskier and more complex, risks are moving into the specialty and E&S marketplace, which is equipped to offer solutions that would otherwise not be available.

首先，保險費有著長期的成長記錄。值得注意的是，在過去 60 多年裡，美國保費成長率整體上僅出現過一次負成長。隨著世界變得越來越危險和複雜，風險正在轉移到專業和 E&S 市場，而這些市場能夠提供原本無法獲得的解決方案。

This market is better suited to handle a more uncertain loss environment, as it offers significantly more freedom of rate and form, and the ability for insurers and underwriters to adjust more quickly. This has also led to a secular shift in how capital is positioned in the broader insurance market. Carriers that have historically participated only in the admitted market are making significant commitments to E&S, and new capital is also flowing in.

這個市場更適合處理更不確定的損失環境，因為它提供了更多的費率和形式自由，以及保險公司和承保人更快調整的能力。這也導致了更廣泛的保險市場中資本配置方式的長期轉變。過去只參與承認市場的承運商正在對 E&S 做出重大承諾，並且新資本也在流入。

Looking forward, we believe the E&S market will both continue to grow in importance and take share of the overall insurance landscape. Second, our wholesale brokerage and delegated underwriting authority businesses provide largely compulsory insurance products. Many, if not most, businesses must have insurance. And as they grow, their needs become more and more complex.

展望未來，我們相信 E&S 市場的重要性將繼續成長，並在整個保險領域中佔據更大的份額。其次，我們的批發經紀和委託承保授權業務主要提供強制保險產品。許多企業（如果不是大多數的話）都必須購買保險。隨著他們的成長，他們的需求變得越來越複雜。

And third, we've built the best platform in the industry, driven by our world-class talent. Our specialized expertise in wholesale and delegated authority, as well as our alignment within it, provide our clients and trading partners with differentiated value and innovative solutions. As a result, we have created incredible trust and significantly deepened our relationships with these same clients and trading partners, which we believe provides us with a tremendous runway for continued growth for years to come.

第三，我們憑藉著世界一流的人才，打造了業界最佳平台。我們在批發和授權方面的專業知識以及我們在其中的協調能力為我們的客戶和貿易夥伴提供了差異化的價值和創新的解決方案。因此，我們與這些客戶和貿易夥伴建立了令人難以置信的信任，並大大加深了我們的關係，我們相信這為我們未來幾年的持續成長提供了巨大的基礎。

Turning to results, we had an excellent first quarter driven by strong organic growth and significant contributions from our recent acquisitions. Now diving into our specialties, each of which grew their top line by double digits, our wholesale brokerage specialty had another strong quarter. In property, we again executed well and still delivered modest growth despite a very challenging environment. Property pricing declines continued along the same trend that we experienced in the fourth quarter. However, despite the softer pricing, we overcame these trends.

談到業績，我們第一季表現優異，這得益於強勁的有機成長和近期收購帶來的重大貢獻。現在深入研究我們的專業領域，每個領域的營收都實現了兩位數的成長，我們的批發經紀專業領域又迎來了一個強勁的季度。在房地產領域，儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們仍然表現良好，並實現了適度成長。房地產價格下跌延續了第四季的趨勢。然而，儘管價格疲軟，我們還是克服了這些趨勢。

We again took share of the strong flow into the channel, won head-to-head against our competitors, and had another quarter of high renewal retention. This is a testament to our tenacious and ultra-competitive RT brokerage team. We know how to navigate adversity in the marketplace, find new opportunities to grow, and expand our market share, and importantly, find ways to win. It's in our DNA.

我們再次佔據了通路強勁流量的份額，在與競爭對手的正面交鋒中獲勝，並在另一個季度實現了較高的續訂保留率。這證明了我們 RT 經紀團隊的堅韌和極強的競爭力。我們知道如何在市場中應對逆境，尋找新的發展機會，擴大我們的市場份額，更重要的是，找到獲勝的方法。它存在於我們的 DNA 中。

As a reminder, the second quarter is our largest property quarter, and the second quarter of 2024 was the last very strong quarter for property before rates began to decelerate, setting up a challenging comp for the second quarter of 2025. While we expect rates to remain competitive in the near term, we remain very bullish on property as an important contributor to our growth over the long-term.

提醒一下，第二季度是我們房地產市場最大的季度，而 2024 年第二季度是利率開始減速之前房地產市場最後一個非常強勁的季度，這為 2025 年第二季度的競爭帶來了挑戰。雖然我們預計利率在短期內仍將保持競爭力，但我們仍然非常看好房地產，因為它是我們長期成長的重要貢獻者。

Our casualty practice had another excellent quarter with strong new business and high renewal retention. We saw strong growth for habitational risks, transportation, construction, and healthcare. Our transportation practice saw another quarter of strong flow.

我們的意外險業務又度過了一個出色的季度，新業務強勁，續保率高。我們看到居住風險、交通運輸、建築和醫療保健領域強勁成長。我們的運輸業務又經歷了一個強勁的季度。

Difficult loss trends driven by both economic and severe social inflation are driving carriers to increase rates, pull back appetite, and in some cases, exit markets completely. Risks in each of these classes and many others are continuing to move into the specialty and E&S markets. We see the E&S market responding in a disciplined manner, with carriers tightening distribution lines, re-underwriting, changing appetite, raising prices, and focusing on limit management.

在經濟和嚴重社會通膨的雙重影響下，艱難的虧損趨勢正迫使承運商提高費率、減少承運需求，在某些情況下甚至徹底退出市場。這些類別中的各個風險以及許多其他類別的風險正在繼續轉移到專業市場和 E&S 市場。我們看到 E&S 市場以規範的方式做出反應，承運商收緊分銷線、重新承保、改變需求、提高價格並專注於限額管理。

We believe the need for the specialized industry and product-level knowledge that Ryan Specialty offers has never been greater, and our value proposition has never been stronger. We remain confident that casualty will be a strong driver of our growth moving forward, and that we will continue to be a leader in casualty solutions for years to come.

我們相信，對 Ryan Specialty 提供的專業產業和產品級知識的需求從未如此強烈，我們的價值主張也從未如此強大。我們堅信意外險將成為我們未來成長的強大動力，並且在未來幾年內我們仍將是意外險解決方案領域的領導者。

Now turning to our delegated authority specialties, which includes both binding and underwriting management. Our binding authority specialty had a very good start in 2025, driven by our top-tier talent and expanding product set for small, tough-to-place commercial P&C risks. We continue to believe panel consolidation in binding authority remains a long-term growth opportunity, and we are well-positioned to capitalize.

現在談談我們的授權專長，其中包括約束管理和承保管理。由於我們頂尖的人才和不斷擴展的針對小型、難以承保的商業財產和意外傷害保險產品組合，我們的約束性授權專業服務在 2025 年取得了良好的開端。我們仍然相信，具有約束力的權威機構的整合仍然是一個長期的成長機會，我們已準備好去利用它。

Meanwhile, our underwriting management specialty had another excellent quarter. Results were driven by strong organic growth, particularly in casualty and transactional liability. We also had meaningful contributions from recent acquisitions, which added over 50 percentage points of growth to the top line of this specialty. Our strategic positioning allows us to capitalize on both organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

同時，我們的核保管理專業又度過了一個出色的季度。業績受到強勁有機的成長所推動，尤其是意外險和交易責任險。最近的收購也為我們帶來了有意義的貢獻，為這項專業的營收成長增加了 50 個百分點以上。我們的策略定位使我們能夠利用有機和無機成長機會。

We believe this combination, paired with our skill and discipline to manage the business through the insurance cycle, ensures our ability to deliver consistently profitable underwriting results, growth, and scale over the long-term. We have repeatedly noted that, in any cycle, as certain lines are perceived to reach pricing adequacy, admitted markets tend to step back in on certain placements. However, this is still not playing out in any meaningful way, and the standard market has not meaningfully impacted the rate or flow in the aggregate.

我們相信，這種結合，加上我們在保險週期內管理業務的技能和紀律，確保了我們能夠長期持續提供盈利的承保業績、成長和規模。我們一再指出，在任何週期中，當某些產品線被認為達到定價充分性時，認可市場往往會在某些配置上退出。然而，這仍然沒有發揮任何有意義的作用，標準市場也沒有對整體速度或流量產生有意義的影響。

As we've said since our IPO, we continue to expect the flow of business into the specialty and E&S market to be a significant driver of Ryan Specialty's growth over the long term, more so than rate. Turning to M&A, today we announced the closing of our acquisition of USQRisk. USQ adds top talent and differentiated intellectual capital to our alternative risk offerings, along with approximately $11 million of incremental annualized revenue to Ryan Specialty.

正如我們自首次公開募股以來所說的那樣，我們繼續預計，流入專業和 E&S 市場的業務將成為 Ryan Specialty 長期成長的重要驅動力，其作用比利率更大。談到併購，今天我們宣布完成對 USQRisk 的收購。USQ 為我們的另類風險產品增添了頂尖人才和差異化智力資本，同時為 Ryan Specialty 帶來了約 1,100 萬美元的增量年收入。

Our new teammates will bolster the capabilities that we bring to our retail broker clients in this highly technical and valued segment of the market. With a focus on non-traditional insurance solutions for risks which the traditional insurance market cannot underwrite efficiently, USQ has carved out a niche in each of the property, casualty, and transportation markets.

我們的新隊友將增強我們為這個技術性很強、價值很高的市場領域的零售經紀客戶帶來的能力。USQ 專注於為傳統保險市場無法有效承保的風險提供非傳統保險解決方案，在財產險、意外險和運輸險市場均佔據一席之地。

Further on the M&A front, our pipeline continues to be robust, including small, midsize, and large deals. That said, we will only move forward when all of our criteria for M&A are met, a strong cultural fit, strategic, and accretive. To sum up, it was another strong quarter for Ryan Specialty. I am proud of our entire team for continuing to deliver outstanding results and adding value for our clients, trading partners, and ultimately our shareholders.

在併購方面，我們的交易管道持續保持強勁，包括小型、中型和大型交易。也就是說，只有當我們的所有併購標準都得到滿足，即強大的文化契合度、策略性和增值性時，我們才會繼續前進。總而言之，對於 Ryan Specialty 來說，這又是一個強勁的季度。我為我們整個團隊繼續提供出色的業績並為我們的客戶、貿易夥伴以及最終的股東創造價值而感到自豪。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Jeremiah. Thank you.

說完這些，我現在將通話交給耶利米。謝謝。

Thank you, Tim. We're pleased with our strong first-quarter performance. On our last call, I noted our unique position to make even larger long-term investments in our platform this year to support our growing business, while also consistently delivering margin improvement. In the quarter, we made great progress on all these fronts. We continued to recruit, train, and develop top-flight talent, advance our operations and integrate numerous recent acquisitions, and lean into new technologies, all while expanding our margin.

謝謝你，提姆。我們對第一季的強勁表現感到滿意。在我們上次電話會議上，我指出，我們的獨特優勢在於今年可以對我們的平台進行更大規模的長期投資，以支持我們不斷成長的業務，同時持續提高利潤率。本季度，我們在所有這些方面都取得了巨大進展。我們持續招募、培訓和培養頂尖人才，推動我們的營運並整合最近的眾多收購，並依靠新技術，同時擴大我們的利潤率。

We continue to be a growth-minded business and remain committed to balancing investments and margin expansion. We believe that these investments in our business today, in talent, in de novos, acquisitions, operations, and technologies that leverage data and AI, will deliver strong, sustainable growth well into the future.

我們將繼續成為一家具有成長意識的企業，並繼續致力於平衡投資和利潤擴張。我們相信，我們目前對業務、人才、創新、收購、營運以及利用數據和人工智慧的技術的投資將在未來帶來強勁、可持續的成長。

With that, I will now turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Janice Hamilton, who will give you more details on our financial results. Janice?

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Janice Hamilton，她將向您提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。珍妮絲？

Thanks, Jeremiah. In Q1, total revenue grew 25% period over period to $690 million. Growth was once again fueled by organic revenue growth of 12.9%, substantial contributions from M&A, which added 13 percentage points, and contingent commissions as we delivered strong underwriting profits for our carrier trading partners and was partially offset by a decline in fiduciary investment income.

謝謝，耶利米。第一季度，總營收年增 25%，達到 6.9 億美元。成長再次受到 12.9% 的有機收入成長、併購帶來的大量貢獻（增加了 13 個百分點）以及或有佣金的推動，因為我們為承運商貿易夥伴帶來了強勁的承保利潤，但受託投資收入的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

Adjusted EBITDAC grew 27.5% to $201 million. Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 60 basis points to 29.1%, driven by another quarter of strong revenue growth and recent acquisitions, partially offset by headwinds from fiduciary investment income, as well as the timing of certain expenses.

調整後的 EBITDAC 成長 27.5%，達到 2.01 億美元。調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大 60 個基點至 29.1%，這得益於又一個季度的強勁收入增長和近期的收購，但受託投資收入的阻力以及某些費用的時間安排部分抵消了這一增長。

Adjusted earnings per share grew 11.4% to $0.39. We had a GAAP net loss of $4 million in the quarter. Similar to our associates transaction in the third quarter of 2023, because we reorganized Velocity from a C-Corp to an LLC upon closing, we incurred a non-recurring, non-cash, deferred tax expense at the public holding company, creating a GAAP net loss of $0.22 per diluted share.

調整後每股收益成長11.4%，至0.39美元。本季度，我們根據美國通用會計準則（GAAP）計算的淨虧損為400萬美元。與 2023 年第三季我們的聯營公司交易類似，由於我們在交易完成後將 Velocity 從 C 類公司重組為有限責任公司，因此我們在上市公司產生了非經常性、非現金、遞延稅項支出，造成每股攤薄收益 0.22 美元的 GAAP 淨虧損。

Since we have no plan to sell Velocity, we do not expect the tax expense will ever be realized in cash. This reorganization was the right strategy and will result in an excellent outcome for shareholders, particularly with regard to go-forward tax efficiency. As noted previously, we will continue to pursue a similar strategy with respect to any future acquisitions of C-Corps. Our adjusted effective tax rate was 26% for the quarter. For 2025, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate may move slightly based on geographic mix and tax law changes.

由於我們沒有出售 Velocity 的計劃，因此我們預計稅費不會以現金形式實現。這次重組是正確的策略，將為股東帶來極好的結果，特別是在未來的稅收效率方面。如前所述，我們將在未來收購 C-Corps 時繼續採取類似的策略。本季我們的調整後有效稅率為 26%。到 2025 年，我們預計調整後的有效稅率可能會根據地理分佈和稅法變化而略有變化。

Turning to capital allocation, M&A remains our top priority now and for the foreseeable future. We ended the quarter at 3.8 times total net leverage on a credit basis, which reflects the acquisition of Velocity and seasonal working capital needs in Q1. While this is at the high end of our leveraged comfort corridor of three to four times, we do remain willing to temporarily go above our comfort corridor for M&A that meets our criteria.

談到資本配置，併購仍然是我們現在和可預見的未來的首要任務。本季末，我們的信貸總淨槓桿率為 3.8 倍，這反映了對 Velocity 的收購以及第一季的季節性營運資金需求。雖然這處於我們三至四倍槓桿舒適區間的高端，但對於符合我們標準的併購，我們仍然願意暫時超越我們的舒適區間。

Our strong free cash flow and the strength of our balance sheet provides flexibility to continue executing on strategic M&A opportunities. Based on the current interest rate environment, we expect to record GAAP interest expense, which is net of interest income on our operating funds of approximately $217 million in 2025, with $59 million to be expensed in the second quarter. For the full-year 2025, we are maintaining our guidance for organic revenue growth of between 11% and 13%, and adjusted EBITDAC margin of between 32.5% and 33.5%.

我們強勁的自由現金流和強勁的資產負債表為繼續執行策略併購機會提供了靈活性。根據目前的利率環境，我們預計將記錄 GAAP 利息支出，即扣除我們 2025 年約 2.17 億美元的營運資金利息收入，其中第二季將支出 5,900 萬美元。對於 2025 年全年，我們維持有機收入成長 11% 至 13% 之間的預期，調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率維持在 32.5% 至 33.5% 之間。

Regarding the recent macro uncertainty, we continue to monitor the environment closely for any potential impact on our business. As Pat and Tim noted, we believe our business model is resilient given we operate in the specialty and E&S market, the largely compulsory nature of our product set and the differentiated platform and unparalleled expertise we offer our clients and trading partners.

對於近期宏觀不確定性，我們將繼續密切關注環境，以防其對我們的業務產生任何潛在影響。正如帕特和蒂姆所指出的，我們相信，鑑於我們在專業和 E&S 市場運營、我們的產品組合具有很大的強制性以及我們為客戶和貿易夥伴提供的差異化平台和無與倫比的專業知識，我們的商業模式具有彈性。

With that, we thank you for your time and would like to open up the call for Q&A. Operator?

最後，我們感謝您抽出時間，並希望開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

So I'm looking at that amazing revenue growth that you just put up and it's about -- it's double digit higher than the organic growth. And historically, I was kind of thinking maybe upper single digits, upper mid-single digits. Could you talk a little bit about the pipeline right now and whether, at minimum, upper single digit is sustainable in terms of inorganic revenue growth?

因此，我看到了您剛才提出的驚人的收入成長，它比有機成長高出兩位數。從歷史上看，我以為可能是個位數上段，中個位數上段。您能否談談目前的情況，以及就無機收入成長而言，至少個位數的成長是否可持續？

I would be happy to. Our flow of business into the channel continues to be double digits, strong double digits validated by the stamping offices. We're seeing heavy flow in most of the specialty channels led by casualty, but property was surprising. While we saw continued rate deceleration like the fourth quarter, we were able to manage those headwinds, and we had some modest growth.

我很樂意。我們的通路業務流量持續保持兩位數成長，蓋章辦公室證實了強勁的兩位數成長。我們看到大多數專業管道的流量都很大，以傷亡險為主，但財產險的流量卻令人驚訝。雖然我們看到利率像第四季一樣持續減速，但我們能夠應對這些不利因素，並且實現適度成長。

So, our M&A pipeline in particular is very, very robust. We have tremendous opportunities in small, medium-sized acquisitions and some very large ones as well. So, we remain very optimistic on our opportunities going forward. The market itself is very frothy, and we're excited about the opportunities in '25.

因此，我們的併購管道尤其非常強勁。我們在小型、中型收購以及一些大型收購中擁有巨大的機會。因此，我們對未來的機會仍然非常樂觀。市場本身泡沫很大，我們對 25 年的機會感到興奮。

And maybe following onto that, you mentioned the USQRisk acquisition, and it had $11 million in incremental revenue, which sounds very small to me. And I think what impresses me is Ryan's ability to really scale that up. I mean, is that something that could turn into $50 million or $100 million in revenue and not too long? And how might you do that?

也許接下來，您提到了 USQRisk 收購，它帶來了 1100 萬美元的增量收入，這對我來說聽起來很小。我認為令我印象深刻的是瑞安真正擴大規模的能力。我的意思是，這是否能在短時間內轉化為 5,000 萬美元或 1 億美元的收入？那你該如何做呢？

Well, this is Pat. I'm not going to touch the growth rate you just articulated, but I would say this. This is very strategic. It's very strategic in that, since day one, our investment strategy has been to build a suite of products and services that can yield exceptional organic growth throughout the cycle and over the long-term. And as you know, we've been constantly innovating, launching new products, adding capabilities, all the while expanding our total addressable market or TAM.

嗯，這是帕特。我不會談論您剛才所說的成長率，但我想這麼說。這是非常具有戰略意義的。它具有很強的策略性，因為從第一天起，我們的投資策略就是打造一套能夠在整個週期和長期內實現卓越有機成長的產品和服務。如您所知，我們一直在不斷創新、推出新產品、增強功能，同時擴大我們的總目標市場或 TAM。

So this strategy really has positioned us well, we believe, to sustain our double-digit organic growth and frankly, overcome the challenges of scale, harder to grow the larger you get, or market shifts, which we're experiencing now on property. And we've done this over the last 15 years. So we do this through adding talent, both from within and outside of the industry, and very much through acquisitions that we've made.

因此，我們相信，這項策略確實為我們提供了良好的基礎，使我們能夠維持兩位數的有機成長，坦白說，克服規模帶來的挑戰，規模越大，成長就越困難，或者我們現在在房地產方面所經歷的市場轉變。過去 15 年來我們一直這樣做。因此，我們透過從產業內外引進人才以及透過收購來實現這一目標。

And you put your finger on the key one, the acquisition of USQRisk. Here, we are really deepening our strategic alliance with Nationwide Mutual. I think you all understand this is a very unique alliance and relationship they have with Nationwide Mutual. The great thing about this alliance is we both understand what we bring to the equation and what the other brings. And we're very proud, each of us, as to the expertise that we bring. So we've been doing this now on our sixth year and we keep adding top new talent, both from within and outside of the industry.

您指出了關鍵問題，即收購 USQRisk。在這裡，我們確實在深化與 Nationwide Mutual 的策略聯盟。我想大家都明白這是他們與 Nationwide Mutual 之間非常獨特的聯盟和關係。這個聯盟的偉大之處在於，我們都清楚自己能為聯盟帶來什麼，對方又能帶來什麼。我們每個人都對自己所帶來的專業知識感到非常自豪。因此，我們現在已經這樣做了六年，我們不斷引進來自產業內外的頂尖新人才。

And this Nationwide Mutual alliance demands that we invest in new product development and add key talent. So with USQRisk, we brought in 17 highly skilled, sophisticated experts that are underwriters and actuaries. It's a key talent addition through this acquisition to fulfill the opportunities that Nationwide Mutual and we have together agreed that gives us a long runway of organic growth and margin expansion.

與 Nationwide Mutual 的聯盟要求我們投資新產品開發並引進關鍵人才。因此，我們透過 USQRisk 引進了 17 位技術高超、經驗豐富的承保人和精算師專家。此次收購為我們帶來了關鍵的人才補充，有助於我們抓住 Nationwide Mutual 和我們共同商定的機會，從而為我們帶來長期的有機成長和利潤擴張。

Additionally, prior to closing this acquisition today, we had eight other really highly skilled professionals from different walks of life that fit this strategy and bring tremendous intellectual capital differentiation. So by adding this differentiated talent capabilities, we not only expand our TAM, we add a new cylinder of powerful growth to our growth engine. And we very much advance our core mission.

此外，在今天完成此次收購之前，我們還有另外八位來自不同行業的真正高技能專業人士符合這項策略，並帶來巨大的智力資本差異化。因此，透過增加這種差異化的人才能力，我們不僅擴大了我們的 TAM，還為我們的成長引擎增加了一個新的強大成長缸。我們大力推進我們的核心使命。

And I just want to remind everybody, we stuck to this mission from founding. That is to provide innovative services to brokers, agents, and very importantly, insurance carriers. And that's what we're doing here with our strategic alliance partner, Nationwide Mutual. So you can tell from all of this, needless to say, we're pretty very excited about this acquisition and the overall opportunity that it brings. And you'll forgive me if I won't answer the compounding growth rates that you threw out, but we're very enthusiastic.

我只是想提醒大家，我們從創立之初就堅持這項使命。那就是為經紀人、代理人以及非常重要的保險公司提供創新服務。這就是我們與策略聯盟夥伴 Nationwide Mutual 正在做的事情。因此，從這一切中你可以看出，不用說，我們對這次收購及其帶來的整體機會感到非常興奮。如果我不能回答您提出的複合成長率問題，請您原諒，但我們非常熱情。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

The first one I had is on the technology spend and if you could kind of give us a little more color on some of the things you're doing and how that'll contribute to growth and operational efficiency in the future. And just an idea too around whether these will continue or if they were more loaded into the first quarter.

我的第一個問題是關於技術支出，您是否可以向我們詳細介紹您正在做的一些事情，以及這些事情將如何促進未來的成長和營運效率。我也只是想了解這些是否會繼續下去，或者它們是否會在第一季進一步加劇。

Yes. So we are trying to streamline and digitize as much of our workflow processes as possible. We still have system consolidation work to do.

是的。因此，我們正在盡可能地簡化和數位化我們的工作流程。我們還有系統整合工作要做。

There's a lot of efficiencies through investments in our workbenches that we can do. And we are starting to experiment with AI solutions across various business units. So there's nothing individually that moves the needle this year, but what it does in aggregate is continue the trend of reducing cycle time, speeding up answers and insights to clients and processing everything, especially the non-strategic client-facing activities, in the swiftest, most cost-efficient fashion.

透過對工作台的投資，我們可以提高很多效率。我們開始在各個業務部門嘗試人工智慧解決方案。因此，今年沒有任何單一因素能夠帶來顯著變化，但總體而言，它延續了縮短週期時間、加快為客戶提供答案和見解以及以最快捷、最具成本效益的方式處理所有事務（尤其是非戰略性的面向客戶的活動）的趨勢。

So what that does is equip our producers to be as good and as fast as they can and helps us spend money on talent rather than process. And most importantly, we're able to balance those investments with exceptional growth and margin improvement along the way.

這樣做的目的是讓我們的製作人盡可能優秀、快速地完成工作，並幫助我們把錢花在人才上，而不是流程上。最重要的是，我們能夠平衡這些投資與卓越的成長和利潤率的提高。

Oh, that's really helpful. Thank you. Next I have is on 2Q and just having more property-heavy quarter potentially ahead of cat season. Could you frame for us maybe what a normal portion of premiums kind of property versus a heavier 2Q? And I hate to be short term about it. I just want to make sure we have the right expectations heading into potentially a more difficult comp, just given property is sort of the center of the storm here.

噢，這真的很有幫助。謝謝。接下來我要說的是第二季度，在貓咪季節之前，可能會有更多房地產業務繁忙的季度。您能否為我們解釋一下，與第二季相比，正常的保費份額是多少？我不想對此採取短期措施。我只是想確保我們對可能更加困難的競爭有正確的預期，因為房地產是這裡的風暴中心。

Sure, I'll take that, Alex. So, as you noted, Q2 is our largest quarter for property. Tim mentioned in his remarks that it will be a tough comp. That was the last quarter before rates started to accelerate. We've acknowledged from a number of quarters that property for us is continuing to expect modest growth. We've had that the first quarter and we will continue to expect that for the remainder of the year.

當然，我接受，亞歷克斯。因此，正如您所說，第二季度是我們房地產業務最大的季度。蒂姆在演講中提到，這將是一場艱難的比賽。這是利率開始加速之前的最後一個季度。我們從多個方面認識到，我們的房地產業務將繼續保持適度成長。我們在第一季就已經實現了這一目標，我們預計今年剩餘時間也將繼續實現這一目標。

So while we expect property to be a large component of our Q2, Q2 is our largest quarter overall. And so, from that, hopefully we can bring the seasonality elements of property, but we are expecting modest growth for the remainder of the year.

因此，雖然我們預計房地產將成為我們第二季業務的重要組成部分，但第二季是我們整體業務規模最大的季度。因此，我們希望能夠帶來房地產的季節性因素，但我們預計今年剩餘時間將出現溫和成長。

Tim, is there anything you'd want to add to that?

提姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's very accurate. We do have headwinds, rate deceleration in property, but we're winning new business. We're retaining our renewals. The new business coming into the channel is strong and we're winning frequently in head-to-head competition. So we're confident that we can maintain our growth, modest in property and much heavier in casualty.

不，我認為這非常準確。我們確實面臨阻力，房地產利率下降，但我們正在贏得新業務。我們保留續約權。進入通路的新業務勢頭強勁，我們在正面競爭中屢屢獲勝。因此，我們有信心能維持成長，在財產保險方面保持適度成長，在意外險方面則保持較大成長。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

You've mentioned, I think maybe this is best for Jeremiah or Janice, some timing-related issues on investments. And I think that probably goes to explain why the G&A ratio went up. Is there anything unusual in the compensation ratio declining on a year-over-year basis, or is that just the typical operating leverage that we should expect?

您提到過，我認為這對 Jeremiah 或 Janice 來說可能是最好的，一些與投資時間相關的問題。我認為這可能解釋了為什麼 G&A 比率上升了。薪酬比率年減有什麼不尋常之處嗎？或者這只是我們應該預期的典型經營槓桿？

So, Meyer, I'll take that one. So, you are correct. First of all, I'll just note that we had our 60 basis points of margin improvement in the quarter, which we were very pleased about.

所以，邁耶，我接受這個。所以，你是對的。首先，我要指出的是，本季我們的利潤率提高了 60 個基點，我們對此感到非常高興。

We highlighted within our remarks that there were some timing differences there from an overall full-year margin perspective. Those timing differences actually relate to the timing of certain benefits and other related expenses coming through in the first quarter, as well as some other teaming and professional services. Jeremiah touched on some of the beginnings of the initiatives that we have, but also professional services that are driven by revenue-generating activities.

我們在評論中強調，從全年整體利潤率的角度來看，存在一些時間差異。這些時間差異實際上與第一季某些福利和其他相關費用以及一些其他團隊和專業服務的時間有關。傑裡邁亞談到了我們的一些舉措的開始，以及由創收活動驅動的專業服務。

I think what you're thinking about or what you're seeing is the G&A ratio worsening effectively relative to last year, but comp benefits expanding significantly. And that is really coming from where we have US Assure earning in and think about the timing of US Assure continuing to earn in over the next two quarters, well, first quarter, second quarter, and a little bit of the third quarter. That margin expansion is really all dropping to comp.

我認為您所想到的或看到的是，與去年相比，G&A 比率實際上在惡化，但同公司福利卻在大幅增加。這實際上來自於我們對 US Assure 盈利的了解，並思考 US Assure 在接下來的兩個季度（第一季、第二季和第三季的一小部分）繼續獲利的時間。利潤率的擴大實際上全部下降到了可比水平。

So, there's a little bit of accelerate 2025 in there from last year continuing to earn through, but really think about that into US Assure. And then on the G&A side, that would continue as we have the investments that Jeremiah alluded to our ops and technology. So, we would expect G&A to continue on a similar trajectory in comp and benefits, the margin expansion that I highlighted.

因此，從去年開始，2025 年的加速計畫將繼續實施，但真正考慮將其納入 US Assure 計畫。然後在 G&A 方面，這種情況將繼續下去，因為我們有 Jeremiah 提到的對營運和技術的投資。因此，我們預期 G&A 在薪資和福利方面將繼續呈現類似的軌跡，即我所強調的利潤率擴張。

Okay, perfect. That's very helpful. Taking a step back, we are hearing sort of generalized grumbling from a lot of carriers about MGAs. And I'm wondering whether the fact that you've got the underwriting management business, does that pose any challenges to the relationship you have with carriers in the wholesale specialty?

好的，完美。這非常有幫助。退一步來說，我們聽到很多航空公司對 MGAs 普遍存在抱怨。我想知道，你們擁有核保管理業務，這是否會對你們與批發專業承運商的關係構成挑戰？

No, actually, it's been well-received by majority, vast majority of our partners. They understand the parallel to the brokerage side of it, the importance of the delegated underwriting authority space, not just in MGUs, but in the program space, the binding authority space. So, it's very, very much aligned with these carriers.

不，實際上，它受到了我們大多數、絕大多數合作夥伴的歡迎。他們了解與經紀業務相似之處，即委託承保權空間的重要性，不僅在 MGU 中，而且在計劃空間、約束權限空間中。因此，它與這些運營商非常一致。

Sure, we hear an occasional question or grumbling about it, but I would say that's the minority by far. Most of the E&S carriers, 110 of them now that are dedicated to the wholesale distribution channel, have a specific delegated underwriting authority department. So we're engaging with them, we're strengthening our trading relationships with them, and they have a lot to gain and a lot to win from the partnership. So it's very much positive and well-received today.

當然，我們偶爾會聽到一些質疑或抱怨，但我想說，這絕對是少數。大多數 E&S 承運商（其中現有 110 家專注於批發分銷管道）都設有特定的授權承保部門。因此，我們正在與他們接觸，加強與他們的貿易關係，他們將從這種合作中獲益良多。因此，今天它非常積極並且受到好評。

(Operator Instructions) Robert Cox, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的羅伯特·考克斯。

Yeah, I was hoping you could just give us a sense of what you've seen through April and maybe in April from an economic perspective. I know some other brokers have called out construction as an area of some economic pressure. So I was hoping, wondering if you saw that, and if you did, if you could remind us of your exposure there and just broadly what you're seeing.

是的，我希望您能從經濟角度向我們介紹四月份以及未來四月份的情況。我知道其他一些經紀人已經指出建築業是一個面臨經濟壓力的領域。所以我希望，想知道您是否看到了這一點，如果您看到了，您是否可以提醒我們您在那裡的經歷以及您所看到的情況。

We're continuing to experience very strong construction results. We're not seeing any real change, noticeable change in the market thus far this year. The infrastructure roll-up space is strong. Obviously, subs, GCs and artisans are very strong across the country, and even residential construction remains strong. So we really haven't seen any indication of a slowdown.

我們的建設成果持續強勁。今年到目前為止，我們還沒有看到市場發生任何真正的、明顯的變化。基礎設施捲起空間強勁。顯然，全國各地的潛水艇、總承包商和工匠都非常強大，甚至住宅建築也仍然強勁。所以我們確實沒有看到任何放緩的跡象。

Awesome. Thanks, Tim. And Tim, I wanted to go back to your comments on the submission flow. Sounds like you guys are taking share of the submission flow. I think you called out property in particular in light of the pricing pressure there. Do you have a sense generally like where you're taking share of the flow? I assume it's not primarily from your large wholesale peers, but I was just wondering if you could provide some color.

驚人的。謝謝，蒂姆。提姆，我想回到你對提交流程的評論。聽起來你們正在佔據提交流程的份額。我認為您特別提到了房地產，因為那裡存在價格壓力。您是否大致了解自己佔據了多少流量份額？我認為這主要不是來自您的大型批發同行，但我只是想知道您是否可以提供一些資訊。

Sure. Well, there's this double-digit increase in flow that's coming into the channel. So that's one of them. But another phenomenon that is nowhere near coming to the end of the line would be the consolidation of the use of brokerage intermediaries. Jeremiah talks about it a lot. We're really in probably the middle stages on the brokerage side of it in the top 100 retail broker community. Lots more opportunities in tier two and tier three, tens of thousands of retail brokers yet to consolidate brokerage.

當然。嗯，進入通路的流量出現了兩位數的成長。這就是其中之一。但另一個遠未結束的現像是經紀中介機構所使用的整合。耶利米多次談論此事。在前 100 名零售經紀商社群中，我們的經紀業務可能確實處於中間階段。二級和三級市場存在更多機會，數以萬計的零售經紀商尚未整合經紀業務。

And in the delegated underwriting authority space, this is the exciting part -- that's the MGU, again, programs and binding authorities -- we're in the early stages of the consolidation. So tremendous opportunity to really grow exponentially there over just the consolidation of that business. So we're out RFP-ing, we're out presenting, we're out using all of our tools, our digital trading platform, our strong deep bench and binding authorities. And we're very optimistic about growing that with panel consolidation.

在委託核保權限領域，這是令人興奮的部分 - 即 MGU，再次，計劃和約束性權限 - 我們正處於整合的早期階段。因此，透過整合該業務，可以實現真正指數級成長的巨大機會。因此，我們正在進行 RFP，我們正在進行演示，我們正在使用我們所有的工具、我們的數位交易平台、我們強大的後備力量和具有約束力的權威。我們對透過面板整合實現的成長非常樂觀。

Elyse Greenspan.

伊莉絲‧葛林斯潘。

So I guess what I was going to ask upon, I think, I mean, Alex did touch on, but I want to come back just to the seasonality. Is it fair to assume within the guidance, I guess, just from a quarterly perspective, that Q2 and then I guess also Q4, right, would be lower growth quarters because of the higher property concentration?

所以我想我要問的是，我想，我的意思是，亞歷克斯確實提到了，但我只想回到季節性問題。我猜，僅從季度角度來看，是否可以在指導範圍內假設，由於房地產集中度較高，第二季以及第四季將是成長較低的季度？

And then I guess I'll throw in a second part to that question. It sounds like you guys are, in the guidance, you're assuming, right, some continued growth in property this year. So are you assuming that rates don't continue to decelerate from where they are today as we go through the rest of the year?

然後我想我會提出這個問題的第二部分。聽起來你們在指導中假設今年房地產市場將繼續成長。那麼，您是否認為，在今年剩餘時間內，利率不會繼續從目前的水平下降？

Okay, Elyse. I'll take that one. And then if there's anything, Tim, you want to add to it, please go ahead.

好的，伊莉絲。我要那個。然後，提姆，如果你想添加任何內容，請繼續。

So, I mentioned, and I think we've said before, we don't guide by quarter. So the seasonality point that I made earlier just around property being the largest in Q2 and Q4, those are also our largest quarters. Q2 is a tough comp against last year just because we did have one more quarter of rates being harder in the second quarter last year. That deceleration started in the third and fourth quarter. So I think from a comp perspective, Q2 will certainly be the toughest. I also mentioned that in the first quarter, we continue to see modest growth and we have that expectation in our guidance for the whole year. And that's really a continuation of the trends that we've seen from Q4 through the first quarter.

所以，我提到過，我想我們之前也說過，我們不按季度提供指導。因此，我之前提到的季節性點是關於房地產在第二季和第四季表現最強勁，這兩個季度也是我們表現最強勁的季度。與去年相比，第二季的利率更加嚴格，因為去年第二季的利率比去年同期高出一個季度。這種減速始於第三季和第四季。因此我認為從競爭角度來看，第二季肯定是最艱難的。我還提到，在第一季度，我們繼續看到溫和的成長，我們對全年的預期也抱持這樣的預期。這實際上是我們從第四季度到第一季看到的趨勢的延續。

So, yes, Elyse, from a comp perspective related to property, things do get better as the year goes on just as a function of math. But our underpinning assumptions for guidance don't assume like materially improved conditions in property. We're just expecting to modestly grow through that, just to clarify.

所以，是的，伊莉絲，從與財產相關的補償角度來看，隨著時間的推移，情況確實會變得更好，就像數學函數一樣。但我們指導的基本假設並不認為房地產狀況會有實質改善。我們只是期望透過這種方式實現適度成長，這只是澄清一下。

Thanks. And then on the M&A side, right, I mean, you guys had previously told us, right, you're coming up towards the top of your leverage corridor, right? And you've obviously said that you would go above, depending upon deals out there.

謝謝。然後在併購方面，對吧，我的意思是，你們之前告訴過我們，對吧，你們正在接近槓桿走廊的頂端，對吧？而且您顯然已經說過，您會按照現有的交易價格支付更高的價格。

I think you guys said like the pipeline has small, mid and large size deals. Can you just give us a sense of the pipeline today relative to transactions, where you guys are focusing on, and what we could see, I guess in the near to intermediate term on the M&A side?

我想你們說過，管道有小型、中型和大型交易。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下目前與交易相關的管道、您關注的重點以及我們在近期至中期內在併購方面可以看到的情況？

Well, we have, as Tim outlined, robust opportunity. We're clearly evaluating those opportunities as to the greatest strategic ability to multiply that acquisition into strong organic growth year after. We are going to maintain our ratio of debt, which was, I think, probably, Janice, you ought to pick up on that part of it.

嗯，正如蒂姆所概述的，我們擁有強大的機會。我們正在明確評估這些機會，以獲得最大的策略能力，將收購轉化為明年強勁的有機成長。我們將維持我們的債務比率，我想，珍妮絲，你可能應該注意到這一部分。

But it is a more of a buyer's market than we've had. Certainly, PEs, you're all aware of whatever talent they have. We got an aggressive new competitor on M&A with (inaudible) with CRC. But it's much more of a buyer's market today than it has been.

但現在的買方市場比我們以往經歷過的還要多。當然，PE們，你們都知道他們有什麼才能。我們在併購方面遇到了一個咄咄逼人的新競爭對手（聽不清楚），即 CRC。但如今的買方市場比以前更加活躍。

That doesn't mean that multiples will come down dramatically at all. We buy quality firms, and quality firms tend to come out of a higher multiple, but we've been quite successful in cost synergies, particularly revenue synergies, where, if we have to pay a multiple that's a bit higher than we would like, we've been able to buy those down pretty quickly.

這並不意味著倍數會大幅下降。我們收購優質公司，優質公司的本益比通常較高，但我們在成本協同效應，特別是收入協同效應方面相當成功，如果我們必須支付比我們希望的略高的本益比，我們能夠很快將其降低。

Do you want to pick up on the ratios at the top?

您想了解頂部的比例嗎？

Yes, happy to. Elyse, in my prepared remarks, I noted that we ended the quarter at 3.8 times our net leverage on a credit basis, and that was consistent with what we had expected. We said that we would end the first quarter at the higher end as a result of Velocity in our seasonal working capital trend, which we did see. Absent a significant amount of further M&A, we would expect to significantly delever by the end of the year, almost a full turn. Q1, as a reminder, is still a heavy working capital quarter for us, so we would expect that to kick back down in Q1 of next year.

是的，很高興。伊莉絲，在我準備好的發言中，我指出，本季末我們的信用淨槓桿率為 3.8 倍，這與我們的預期一致。我們說過，由於季節性營運資本趨勢的速度加快，第一季的業績將以較高水準結束，這一點我們確實看到了。在沒有大量進一步的併購的情況下，我們預計到今年年底槓桿率將大幅下降，幾乎是全面下降。提醒一下，第一季對我們來說仍然是營運資金緊張的一個季度，因此我們預計明年第一季營運資金將會減少。

But overall, we have ample capacity to execute on significant M&A opportunities, and we said that we would be willing to go above four times temporarily for the right field. But in light of the fact of expecting significant deleverage based on our strong growth and free cash flow, we have significant amounts of financial flexibility in order to meet the pipeline needs.

但總體而言，我們有足夠的能力執行重大的併購機會，我們表示，為了合適的領域，我們願意暫時付出四倍以上的代價。但考慮到我們強勁的成長和自由現金流預計將大幅去槓桿，我們擁有相當大的財務靈活性來滿足管道需求。

I think the other point that we'd like to make on that is, this is a repeated past statement, but very much this year's M&A is next year and the following year's organic growth, and so we've just done Velocity. Velocity underwriters is performing very well and has a very significant potential to expand our property book. We all believe that the property decline will reverse itself, just because of all the external forces.

我認為我們想提出的另一點是，這是重複過去的聲明，但今年的併購很大程度上是為了明年和後年的有機增長，所以我們剛剛完成了 Velocity。Velocity 承銷商表現非常出色，並且具有很大的潛力來擴大我們的財產承銷範圍。我們都相信房地產的下跌趨勢會逆轉，只是因為所有的外部力量。

We don't know when or how fast it will reverse, but it will, we believe. And so adding that M&A that we added last year in the first part of this year, and now adding USQ, we believe really sets us up for strong organic growth 6 to 12 months out.

我們不知道它何時會逆轉、逆轉的速度有多快，但我們相信它會逆轉。因此，加上我們去年上半年進行的併購，現在又增加了 USQ，我們相信這將為我們在未來 6 到 12 個月內實現強勁的有機成長奠定基礎。

Thanks. And then I'll throw one last one in there. We saw a few of the big states provide staffing capacity, and that data did come out today, which showed -- I mean, it's for April, right, a bit of a slowdown. I know, right, it's only three states. But have you guys, I guess, any color on that or anything that you want to say relative to -- you might be willing to say relative to April growth, just for the company, or just in relation to just E&S and just continued flow, which you seem pretty positive about?

謝謝。然後我再說最後一個。我們看到一些大州提供了人員配備能力，今天公佈的數據也顯示——我的意思是，四月份的數據有點放緩。我知道，對，只有三個州。但是我想，你們對此有什麼看法，或者想說些什麼呢——你們可能願意說的是相對於 4 月份的增長，僅針對公司而言，或者僅與 E&S 和持續流動有關，你們對此似乎非常樂觀？

Yes. We've been very, very enthusiastic about the stamping results that we see, just some really sizable increases in the state of California and a few others. We believe that's a trend. We believe there's going to be continued dumping and shedding from the admitted markets, loss leaders and trends like transportation, areas that we've focused on and have built strong broking teams around the country and built MGUs and made acquisitions to strengthen that practice group vertical is an illustration of how we do it.

是的。我們對所看到的沖壓結果感到非常非常興奮，加州和其他一些州的沖壓效果確實有顯著的成長。我們相信這是一種趨勢。我們相信，在已認可的市場、虧損領先企業和運輸等趨勢中，將會繼續出現傾銷和剝離，這些是我們一直關注的領域，我們在全國建立了強大的經紀團隊，建立了 MGU，並進行了收購以加強該業務集團的垂直發展，這就是我們如何做到這一點的一個例子。

We knew transportation would continue to drive more dumping and shedding, and we're prepared for it. High net worth, same thing, capturing a lot of that new business today. And we expect that to grow exponentially. But lots of others, lots of loss leaders that cause the admitted standard markets to non-renew. And we try to be right up in those spaces and, again, have the broking talent, leading broking talent and underwriting platforms to strengthen our value proposition. That strategy is working very well for us.

我們知道運輸將繼續導致更多的傾倒和丟棄，我們已經準備好了。高淨值，同樣如此，如今捕獲了許多新業務。我們預計這一數字將呈指數級增長。但還有很多其他的、很多虧本銷售的產品導致公認的標準市場無法更新。我們試圖在這些領域佔據領先地位，並再次擁有經紀人才、領先的經紀人才和承保平台來加強我們的價值主張。這一策略對我們來說非常有效。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to management for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話交還給管理階層，請他們作最後發言。

Okay. Well, thanks for your great questions. As the coach of this team of outstanding professionals, I'd like to reiterate how proud I am, extremely proud, of our industry leading nearly 13% organic revenue growth and 25% total revenue growth Q1. We really are proud of that. I'm proud as the coach of this outstanding team.

好的。好的，感謝您提出的這個很棒的問題。身為這支優秀專業團隊的教練，我想重申一下，我為我們在第一季領先產業、實現近 13% 的有機收入成長和 25% 的總收入成長感到無比自豪。我們對此感到非常自豪。身為這支優秀球隊的教練，我感到很自豪。

So we appreciate you taking the time to join us today and for your continued support of our firm. And we look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you all for your interest in joining us today. Have a nice evening.

因此，我們感謝您今天抽出時間加入我們，並感謝您對我們公司的持續支持。我們期待下個季度向您通報我們的進展。感謝大家今天有興趣加入我們。祝你今晚愉快。

This concludes the call. Thank you.

通話到此結束。謝謝。