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Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the RYAM Second Quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
早安,歡迎參加 RYAM 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mickey Walsh, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Walsh. You may begin.
現在,我想將電話轉給主持人、財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁米奇·沃爾什先生。謝謝您,沃爾什先生。你可以開始了。
Mickey Walsh - Investor Relations
Mickey Walsh - Investor Relations
Good morning and welcome again to RYAM's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference Call.
早安,再次歡迎參加 RYAM 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。
Joining me on today's call are De Lyle Bloomquist, our President and CEO; and Marcus Moeltner, our CFO and Senior Vice President of Finance.
參加今天電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 De Lyle Bloomquist 和我們的財務長兼財務高級副總裁 Marcus Moeltner。
Last evening, we released our earnings report and accompanying presentation materials, which are available on our website, ryam.com. These materials provide key insights into our financial performance and strategic direction. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
昨晚,我們發布了收益報告及相關簡報資料,可在我們的網站ryam.com上取得。這些材料提供了有關我們財務表現和策略方向的重要見解。在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果大不相同。
These risks are outlined in our earnings release, SEC filings and on slide 2 of the presentation. We will also make reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures to offer additional perspective on our operational performance.
這些風險在我們的收益報告、美國證券交易委員會文件和簡報的第 2 張投影片中都有概述。我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標,以提供對我們的營運績效的更多看法。
Reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found in our presentation on slides 30 to 35. We appreciate your participation today and ongoing interest in RYAM. I'd now like to turn the call over to De Lyle.
在我們投影片 30 至 35 的簡報中可以找到與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳。我們感謝您今天的參與以及對 RYAM 的持續關注。現在我想把電話轉給德萊爾。
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, everyone.
大家早安。
In today's call, I will address, first, our change in 2025 guidance and why we believe the underlying factors were driven by a set of extraordinary and primarily nonrecurring challenges we faced this year. These challenges, both macroeconomic and internal, have certainly impacted our near-term financial results, but we believe they are largely behind us as evidenced by the normalizing cellulose specialty orders, and we believe that such challenges do not alter our long-term trajectory.
在今天的電話會議中,我將首先討論我們對 2025 年指導方針的改變,以及為什麼我們認為其根本因素是由我們今年面臨的一系列非同尋常且主要是非經常性的挑戰所驅動的。這些宏觀經濟和內部挑戰無疑影響了我們的近期財務業績,但我們相信,這些挑戰基本上已經過去,纖維素特種訂單的正常化就是明證,我們相信這些挑戰不會改變我們的長期發展軌跡。
Second, I'll outline why we expect to nearly double our EBITDA over the next 2 years relative to our revised 2025 guidance and walk through the key drivers behind that growth.
其次,我將概述為什麼我們預計未來兩年我們的 EBITDA 將比我們修訂後的 2025 年指引增長近一倍,並介紹這一增長背後的關鍵驅動因素。
And third, I'll discuss our strategy for delivering substantial shareholder value through accelerating revenue growth expanding margins and earning exceptional returns on our strategic growth investments.
第三,我將討論我們的策略,即透過加速收入成長、擴大利潤率和從策略成長投資中獲得豐厚回報,為股東創造可觀的價值。
Before diving into these points, I want to take a step back and emphasize a critical perspective. Isolating and understanding the temporary nature of the headwinds we've encountered this year helps clarify why our long-term value proposition remains intact and in fact, more compelling than ever. These extraordinary impacts do not change the core fundamentals of our business or the powerful opportunities ahead of us. We remain highly confident in the strategy we've set and the unique position we're in to drive meaningful business and shareholder value in the years to come.
在深入探討這些觀點之前,我想先退一步,強調一個批判性的觀點。分離並理解我們今年遇到的逆風的暫時性有助於闡明為什麼我們的長期價值主張保持不變,事實上比以往任何時候都更具吸引力。這些非凡的影響不會改變我們業務的核心基礎或我們面前的強大機會。我們對我們制定的策略以及我們在未來幾年推動有意義的業務和股東價值的獨特地位仍然充滿信心。
Let's now turn to slide 4. In total, we're navigating roughly $59 million in EBITDA headwinds this year, predominantly from issues we believe are onetime in nature. These headwinds, combined with some structural softness in our paperboard and high-yield pulp segments resulted in us lowering our guidance from $215 million to $235 million at the beginning of this year to our current guidance of $150 million to $160 million for 2025.
現在我們來看投影片 4。總體而言,今年我們的 EBITDA 逆風約為 5900 萬美元,主要來自我們認為一次性的問題。這些不利因素,加上我們的紙板和高產量紙漿部門的一些結構性疲軟,導致我們將指導價從今年年初的 2.15 億美元至 2.35 億美元下調至目前的 2025 年指導價 1.5 億美元至 1.6 億美元。
These headwinds include: First, tariff-related uncertainty negatively impacting EBITDA by approximately $21 million. Second, we experienced $8 million of losses from foreign exchange revaluations. Third, operational disruptions accounted for another $18 million impact. Fourth, we incurred $12 million in noncash environmental charges. And finally, our noncore paperboard and high-yield pulp segments experienced higher-than-expected softness.
這些不利因素包括:首先,與關稅相關的不確定性對 EBITDA 產生了約 2,100 萬美元的負面影響。其次,我們因外匯升值而遭受了 800 萬美元的損失。第三,營運中斷又造成了 1,800 萬美元的損失。第四,我們發生了 1200 萬美元的非現金環境費用。最後,我們的非核心紙板和高產量紙漿部門的疲軟程度高於預期。
We have characterized $200 million as 2025 normalized EBITDA, which excludes the isolated items that we do not expect to reoccur in the future. Two other items, the secondary impact of tariffs and the paperboard high-yield pulp weakness, we have excluded from our normalized EBITDA number. But as I will explain, we will continue working to mitigate our exposure in these areas.
我們將 2 億美元定為 2025 年標準化 EBITDA,其中不包括我們預計未來不會再次發生的孤立項目。另外兩個項目,即關稅的次生影響和紙板高產量紙漿的疲軟,我們已從標準化的 EBITDA 數字中排除。但正如我將要解釋的那樣,我們將繼續努力減輕我們在這些領域的風險。
Now let's discuss each of these factors and why we believe that their impact is largely behind us and consequently, why we expect 2025 to be our trough year and Q2 to be our trough quarter with each subsequent quarter and year expected to show accelerating growth and profitability.
現在讓我們討論一下這些因素,以及為什麼我們認為它們的影響基本上已經過去,因此,為什麼我們預計 2025 年將是我們的低谷年,第二季度將是我們的低谷季度,預計隨後的每個季度和年份都將顯示出加速的增長和盈利能力。
Let me provide an update on tariffs, which is detailed on slide 5. First, some context. RYAM is one of the top 50 US exporters. We export about 70% of our US production. So it comes as no surprise that RYAM was impacted by the economic uncertainty caused by the tariff wars. We estimate that the negative impact of uncertainty caused by those tariffs on our 2025 EBITDA is approximately $21 million. Of that, roughly $7 million is tied to direct tariff-related disruptions, issues we anticipate fully recovering from as trade policies stabilize in the coming quarters.
讓我提供有關關稅的最新信息,詳情請參閱幻燈片 5。首先,介紹一些背景。RYAM 是美國 50 大出口商之一。我們約 70% 的產品出口至美國。因此,RYAM 受到關稅戰造成的經濟不確定性的影響也就不足為奇了。我們估計,這些關稅造成的不確定性對我們 2025 年 EBITDA 的負面影響約為 2,100 萬美元。其中,約有 700 萬美元與直接關稅相關的中斷有關,我們預計隨著未來幾季貿易政策的穩定,這些問題將完全恢復。
The remaining $14 million reflects indirect effects, primarily due to the impact tariffs have had on our customers' abilities to access key geographic markets. While we are actively working to mitigate these challenges and regain lost volumes, we are not assuming a recovery of this portion within the current forecast period. It's important to note that the period of uncertainty in April and May following the initial imposition of the 125% Chinese tariff rate had a pronounced short-term impact on order activity. That said, since June, we've seen orders return to more normalized levels, reinforcing our view that the worst of the disruption is now behind us. Even more encouragingly, we see the latest development in the tariff talks providing potential tailwinds as trade policies stabilize.
剩餘的 1400 萬美元反映了間接影響,主要是由於關稅對我們的客戶進入主要地理市場的能力產生了影響。雖然我們正在積極努力緩解這些挑戰並恢復損失的銷售量,但我們並不認為這部分銷售量能夠在當前預測期內恢復。值得注意的是,中國首次實施 125% 關稅稅率後的 4 月和 5 月的不確定時期對訂單活動產生了明顯的短期影響。儘管如此,自六月以來,我們已經看到訂單恢復到更正常的水平,這強化了我們的觀點,即最嚴重的混亂時期已經過去。更令人鼓舞的是,我們看到關稅談判的最新進展為貿易政策的穩定提供了潛在的順風。
To quickly recap, the disruptive Chinese tariffs have largely been resolved. Currently, our cellulose specialty and dissolving wood pulp exports to China are tariff-free and our paperboard imports into the US remain tariff-free under the USMCA free trade agreement.
簡單回顧一下,破壞性的中國關稅問題已基本解決。目前,根據 USMCA 自由貿易協定,我們對中國的特種纖維素和溶解木漿出口免關稅,而我們對美國的紙板進口仍免關稅。
Our only directly tariff product at this point is fluff pulp into China at 10%, and we're actively addressing this by trialing a new dissolving wood pulp fluff product and expanding sales into non-tariff regions.
目前,我們唯一直接徵收關稅的產品是銷往中國的絨毛漿,稅率為 10%,我們正在積極解決這個問題,方法是試用一種新的溶解木漿絨毛產品,並擴大在非關稅地區的銷售。
Importantly, recent US tariffs include a 15% tariff on EU's CS imports, a 10% tariff on Brazilian CS imports and a 50% tariff on Brazilian ethanol imports, all of which will enhance our competitive positioning. Additionally, the ongoing investigations by the USTR against Brazil for unfair trade practices could provide potential upside given that Brazil imports approximately 150,000 metric tons of cellulose specialty acetate annually.
重要的是,美國最近對歐盟的CS進口徵收15%的關稅,對巴西的CS進口徵收10%的關稅,對巴西的乙醇進口徵收50%的關稅,所有這些都將增強我們的競爭地位。此外,鑑於巴西每年進口約 15 萬公噸特種纖維素醋酸酯,美國貿易代表辦公室目前正在對巴西進行不公平貿易行為調查,這可能帶來潛在的好處。
In parallel with these tariff-related dynamics, we also experienced foreign exchange headwinds during the quarter with a negative EBITDA impact of approximately $8 million tied to recent US dollar weakness. Though this is recorded as a short-term negative, the weaker US dollar has lowered our cost of US production relative to our major competitors, which could increase our competitive advantage.
除了這些與關稅相關的動態之外,我們在本季度還經歷了外匯逆風,由於近期美元疲軟,EBITDA 受到了約 800 萬美元的負面影響。儘管這被視為短期負面因素,但美元走弱降低了我們相對於主要競爭對手的美國生產成本,這可能會增加我們的競爭優勢。
In short, the tariff story was clearly a headwind in 2025, is showing strong indications of turning into a potential strategic advantage for us moving forward. However, we are not incorporating any of these potential tailwinds in our outlook.
簡而言之,關稅問題顯然是 2025 年的一個阻力,但有強烈跡象表明,它將轉變為我們未來發展的潛在戰略優勢。然而,我們並沒有將任何這些潛在的順風因素納入我們的展望中。
On slide 6, I'll dive into several operational challenges that significantly impact our 2025 results. These totals about $18 million in EBITDA headwinds and included the following: Labor strikes at Tartas contributed to approximately 20 days of lost or significantly reduced production, compounded by additional 3 days of downtime due to the Iberian Peninsula power outage staffing constraints at Tartas, severe winter disruptions and equipment warranty issues at Jesup and the temporary extended 16-month Fernandina outage interval. These issues have largely been resolved. Tartas currently operates near normalized levels with staffing levels improving. Jesup production is stable and Fernandina will return to a regular 12-month maintenance interval.
在第 6 張投影片上,我將深入探討對我們的 2025 年業績有重大影響的幾個營運挑戰。這些總計約 1800 萬美元的 EBITDA 逆風包括:塔爾塔斯 (Tartas) 的勞工罷工導致大約 20 天的損失或產量大幅下降,此外,由於伊比利亞半島停電、塔爾塔斯的人員配備限制、嚴重的冬季中斷和傑瑟普 (Jesup) 的設備保修問題以及費爾南迪納 (Fernandina) 暫時停電 16 天的停電時間,暫時停工間隔 16 天。這些問題已基本解決。Tartas 目前的營運水準接近正常水平,人員配置水準也不斷提高。傑瑟普核電廠生產穩定,費爾南迪納核電廠將恢復 12 個月的常規維護間隔。
Additionally, as discussed earlier, we also incurred an isolated noncash environmental charge totaling $12 million. This charge was related to legacy site remediation responsibilities, which carry no immediate cash impact.
此外,如前所述,我們還產生了總額為 1200 萬美元的單獨非現金環境費用。這項費用與遺留場地修復責任有關,不會產生直接的現金影響。
Slide 7 addresses the current situation at Temiscaming and our plans for that asset. Our current 2025 guidance for the paperboard and high-yield pulp businesses is roughly breakeven to a slight EBITDA loss due to soft market conditions and custodial site expenses related to the suspended HPC line. We've identified a clear set of actionable opportunities worth approximately $35 million to restore Temiscaming to historical profitability. These include aggressive reduction of custodial site and fixed costs, including labor and outside consultants; improvements in paperboard operating efficiency by increasing planning automation and reducing unplanned maintenance outages and grade changes; launching strategic new products with minimal capital, including freezer board, oil and grease resistant board and specialized high-yield pulp rolled softwood and finally, capturing North American market share from European imports now impacted by a 15% US tariff.
幻燈片 7 介紹了 Temiscaming 的現狀以及我們對該資產的計劃。由於市場疲軟以及與 HPC 生產線暫停相關的託管場地費用,我們目前對紙板和高產量紙漿業務的 2025 年預期大致保持收支平衡,EBITDA 略有虧損。我們已經確定了一系列明確的可行機會,價值約 3500 萬美元,可使 Temiscaming 恢復歷史盈利能力。這些措施包括大幅減少保管場地和固定成本,包括勞動力和外部顧問;透過提高計劃自動化程度和減少計劃外維護停機和等級變化來提高紙板的運作效率;以最少的資本推出戰略性新產品,包括冷凍紙板、耐油和油脂紙板以及專用高產量紙漿壓延軟木,最後,從目前受到 15% 美國市場份額影響的北美市場份額。
Given the strong secular North American paperboard market growth of 4% to 6% annually, our unique market positioning as the only North American 3-ply board producer and our highly achievable initiatives I just outlined, we're confident in restoring Temiscaming to historical EBITDA levels that averaged around $30 million, positioning us favorably to divest these noncore assets. Analyst estimates and public comps indicated a divestiture multiple in the 5 times to 7 times mid-cycle EBITDA range is reasonable.
鑑於北美紙板市場每年 4% 至 6% 的強勁長期增長、我們作為唯一北美三層紙板生產商的獨特市場定位以及我剛才概述的高度可實現的舉措,我們有信心將 Temiscaming 恢復到平均約 3000 萬美元的歷史 EBITDA 水平,從而為我們剝離這些非核心資產做好準備。分析師估計和公開數據顯示,資產剝離倍數在中期 EBITDA 的 5 倍至 7 倍範圍內是合理的。
Now let's discuss what we expect the next couple of years to unfold and why we are so confident and excited about the future of our company, our growth initiatives and the tremendous value creation opportunities that lie ahead. slide 8 shows forecasted growth of our EBITDA from 2026 onwards from our core cellulose specialties and biomaterial businesses and the drivers of that growth.
現在讓我們討論一下我們對未來幾年的預期,以及為什麼我們對公司的未來、我們的成長計劃以及未來巨大的價值創造機會如此有信心和興奮。幻燈片 8 顯示了從 2026 年起我們的核心纖維素特種產品和生物材料業務的 EBITDA 預測增長以及這一增長的驅動因素。
As discussed, we plan to divest of our non-core paperboard and high-yield pulp businesses at Temiscaming, transforming us into a company focused on our core businesses. On this slide, we start with $200 million of EBITDA that our core business would have generated in 2025, but for the headwinds we discussed earlier that we do not anticipate will reoccur in 2026 and moving forward. Then we layer on various key drivers that will dramatically grow that EBITDA in the future years.
正如所討論的,我們計劃剝離 Temiscaming 的非核心紙板和高產量紙漿業務,將我們轉變為專注於核心業務的公司。在這張投影片上,我們首先要介紹的是 2 億美元的 EBITDA,這是我們的核心業務將在 2025 年產生的,但是,如果沒有我們之前討論過的不利因素,我們預計 2026 年及以後不會再次出現。然後,我們分層分析各種關鍵驅動因素,這些因素將在未來幾年大幅增加 EBITDA。
These drivers include a highly attractive cellulose specialties market with strong supply-demand dynamics supported by meaningful pricing power; our multiyear plan to reduce unit costs and expand year-over-year margins; our unique ownership of the majority of the excess cellulose specialty capacity in the market, strategically positioning us to capture market share growth opportunities; and our biomaterials initiatives, which provide compelling opportunities to recycle capital at exceptionally high investment returns.
這些驅動因素包括:極具吸引力的纖維素特種產品市場,其供需動態強勁,並由強大的定價能力支撐;我們旨在降低單位成本和擴大年同比利潤率的多年計劃;我們擁有市場上大部分過剩纖維素特種產品產能的獨特所有權,這使我們能夠在戰略上抓住市場份額增長的機會;以及我們的生物材料計劃,這些成本
Backed by a strong balance sheet and robust liquidity, we can fund these initiatives internally without shareholder dilution, placing us firmly on a track for a normalized core EBITDA run rate of approximately $308 million by the end of 2027, increasing further to about $338 million with our AGE project in 2028.
在強勁的資產負債表和強勁的流動性的支持下,我們可以在不稀釋股東權益的情況下內部為這些計劃提供資金,使我們在 2027 年底實現約 3.08 億美元的正常化核心 EBITDA 運行率,並在 2028 年通過我們的 AGE 項目進一步增加至約 3.38 億美元。
Now let's discuss each of these initiatives one by one. Turning to slide 9, not only has the cellulose specialty industry become quite attractive after a long time of earning subpar returns, but also RYAM is exceptionally well situated from a competitive standpoint. Poor historical returns and low margins have led to the closure of several plants and the exit of multiple competitors, permanently removing excess capacity from the industry.
現在讓我們逐一討論這些舉措。翻到投影片 9,纖維素特種產業不僅在長期獲得低於標準的回報後變得相當有吸引力,而且從競爭的角度來看,RYAM 也處於非常有利的地位。歷史回報率低和利潤率低導致多家工廠關閉、多家競爭對手退出,永久消除了該行業的過剩產能。
According to third-party analysts, the industry has become highly consolidated with RYAM, Borregaard and Bracell collectively representing roughly 80% of the dissolving wood pulp cellulose specialty market. Industry utilization now hovers around 90% and expected to tighten further. We anticipate that these market dynamics will support a more stable pricing environment with industry analysts forecasting sustained annual price increases of approximately 4% to 6%, which is expected to more than outpace RYAM's all-in cost inflation.
據第三方分析師稱,該行業已高度整合,RYAM、Borregaard 和 Bracell 共佔據溶解木漿纖維素特種市場的約 80%。目前產業利用率徘徊在90%左右,預計還會進一步收緊。我們預計這些市場動態將支持更穩定的定價環境,產業分析師預測年度價格將持續上漲約 4% 至 6%,預計將超過 RYAM 的全部成本通膨。
Recent tariff disruptions have underscored the essential nature of our cellulose specialty products and the lack of alternatives as our offering has emerged largely unscathed from retaliatory tariffs.
最近的關稅中斷凸顯了我們的纖維素特種產品的必要性以及缺乏替代品,因為我們的產品基本上沒有受到報復性關稅的影響。
We are widely recognized as a global leader in producing highly specialized noncommodity products recognized by their superior purity. Our position is supported by proprietary technology and enduring customer relationships that reinforce strong retention and long-term value creation.
我們被廣泛認為是生產高度專業化的非商品產品的全球領導者,這些產品以其卓越的純度而聞名。我們的地位由專有技術和持久的客戶關係所支持,這增強了強大的保留率和長期價值創造。
Additionally, approximately half of our cellulose specialty markets are noncyclical, providing stable demand. In the more cyclical segments, we see meaningful upside potential, particularly in sectors like European construction and industrial markets, which remain depressed and could represent significant opportunity as broader economic conditions improve. Our forecast does not incorporate these upsides.
此外,我們大約一半的纖維素特種市場是非週期性的,從而提供了穩定的需求。在更具週期性的領域,我們看到了顯著的上行潛力,特別是歐洲建築和工業市場等行業,這些行業仍然低迷,但隨著整體經濟狀況的改善,這些行業可能帶來重大機會。我們的預測並未考慮這些好處。
On slide 10, our strong structural cost reduction initiatives are central to expanding margins sustainably. We're targeting around $10 million in corporate expense reductions, primarily through automation and efficiencies gained from our recently implemented ERP system.
在第 10 張投影片上,我們強而有力的結構性成本削減措施對於持續擴大利潤率至關重要。我們的目標是削減約 1000 萬美元的企業開支,主要透過我們最近實施的 ERP 系統實現自動化和提高效率。
Additionally, we anticipate roughly $20 million in operational savings from initiatives, including automation of manufacturing processes, improved material usage efficiency, reduced energy consumption and enhanced asset reliability through targeted capital investments. We plan to invest $24 million to achieve the aforementioned $3 million of annual savings in 2026. Beyond 2026, we have a robust pipeline of cost-saving projects for 2027 and beyond with similarly attractive return profile. These cost-saving initiatives, along with pricing improvements are core pillars of our margin expansion strategy.
此外,我們預計透過有針對性的資本投資等舉措,可以節省約 2,000 萬美元的營運成本,包括實現製造流程自動化、提高材料使用效率、降低能源消耗和增強資產可靠性。我們計劃投資 2,400 萬美元,以實現上述 2026 年每年 300 萬美元的節省。2026 年以後,我們擁有大量針對 2027 年及以後的成本節約項目,並且具有同樣誘人的回報狀況。這些節約成本的舉措以及價格改進是我們利潤擴張策略的核心支柱。
Now turning to slide 11, I want to highlight the substantial EBITDA growth opportunities stemming from our ability to capture the growth within the cellulose specialties market. Third-party market forecasts remain highly favorable, with analysts projecting market growth of approximately 80,000 metric tons over the next 2 years. Given our unique position of controlling most of the excess capacity within the cellulose specialty market, we are exceptionally well positioned to capture a meaningful portion of that growth.
現在翻到第 11 張投影片,我想強調我們抓住纖維素特種市場成長的能力所帶來的巨大 EBITDA 成長機會。第三方市場預測仍然非常樂觀,分析師預計未來兩年市場將成長約 8 萬公噸。鑑於我們在纖維素特種市場中控制大部分過剩產能的獨特地位,我們完全有能力抓住這一成長的重要部分。
Specifically, through the requalification of our Temiscaming production at other facilities and organic market growth, we are projecting incremental EBITDA contributions in the range of $30 million by the end of 2027. This estimate assumes that we will capture volumes in line with our existing market share, though it is likely that we will capture an upsized share of the organic growth due to our outsized share of the industry's excess capacity.
具體而言,透過在其他工廠重新認證 Temiscaming 生產以及有機市場成長,我們預計到 2027 年底 EBITDA 貢獻增量將達到 3000 萬美元。這項估計假設我們將獲得與現有市場佔有率相符的銷量,但由於我們在產業過剩產能中所佔份額過大,我們很可能會獲得更大的有機成長份額。
Beyond these conservative projections, further upside not in our forecast exists, particularly tied to the European ethers market. To frame this clearly, European ethers demand declined approximately 110,000 metric tons between 2022 and 2023 due to broad economic headwinds. Tartas has 20,000 metric tons of excess ethers capacity, which could yield an additional $15 million in EBITDA for RYAM and much more than that if prices increase, which is likely in a recovery scenario. Further upside, also not in our projections, stems from our position as the leading global producer of nitrocellulose for munitions and explosives, particularly given increased global defense spending trends.
除了這些保守的預測之外,還存在著我們預測之外的進一步上漲空間,特別是與歐洲醚市場相關的。為了清楚地表明這一點,由於廣泛的經濟逆風,歐洲醚類需求在 2022 年至 2023 年間下降了約 11 萬公噸。Tartas 擁有 20,000 公噸的過剩醚產能,可以為 RYAM 帶來額外的 1500 萬美元 EBITDA,如果價格上漲(在經濟復甦的情況下很可能上漲),則收益會遠不止於此。進一步的上漲(同樣不在我們的預測範圍內)源於我們作為全球領先的彈藥和炸藥用硝化纖維素生產商的地位,特別是考慮到全球國防開支趨勢的增加。
Turning your attention now to slide 12, I'd like to clearly outline our biomaterial strategy and the exciting opportunities we have to monetize previously underleveraged byproducts stemming from our cellulose specialty production processes. As you know, approximately 60% of the dry portion of the tree is composed of non-cellulose byproducts historically utilized for energy value. Our biomaterials initiative strategically transforms these materials into high-value products like biofuels, bioelectricity, crude tall oil, prebiotics, lignosulfonates, turpentine and biogenic CO2 for sustainable aviation fuels.
現在請大家注意第 12 張投影片,我想清楚地概述我們的生物材料策略以及我們將纖維素特種生產過程中產生的以前未充分利用的副產品貨幣化的激動人心的機會。眾所周知,樹木乾燥部分的約 60% 由非纖維素副產品組成,這些副產品歷來用於產生能量。我們的生物材料計劃將這些材料策略性地轉化為高價值產品,如生物燃料、生物電、粗妥爾油、益生元、木質素磺酸鹽、松節油和生物二氧化碳,用於永續航空燃料。
The contracted cash flows generated from these products justify a high multiple in the marketplace because of their stable characteristics. Our Tartas bioethanol project represents the first step in the execution of this strategy. This initiative required only $5 million in RYAM equity investment due to our leveraging of European green financing at attractive interest rates and securing a stable 5-year take-or-pay contract with ExxonMobil. The single project alone is expected to generate between $8 million to $10 million of EBITDA annually, yielding an exceptional equity ROI of over 10x our initial equity investment based on market valuations. This clearly demonstrates the potential embedded within our biomaterials development strategy, utilizing our existing infrastructure.
由於這些產品具有穩定的特性,其產生的合約現金流在市場上具有較高的倍數。我們的 Tartas 生物乙醇計畫代表了實施此策略的第一步。由於我們利用了具有吸引力利率的歐洲綠色融資,並與埃克森美孚簽訂了穩定的 5 年期照付不議合同,該計劃僅需要 500 萬美元的 RYAM 股權投資。預計光是這個項目每年就能產生 800 萬至 1,000 萬美元的 EBITDA,根據市場估值,其股權投資報酬率將超過我們初始股權投資的 10 倍。這清楚地表明了我們的生物材料開發策略利用現有基礎設施所蘊含的潛力。
We believe we have barely scratched the surface of this opportunity and have a multiyear pipeline of these high-return projects that will be a core driver of our growth going forward.
我們相信,我們才剛剛觸及這個機會的表面,並且擁有多年的高回報項目儲備,這將成為我們未來成長的核心動力。
Our future biomaterials project pipeline is highlighted in slide 13. Our BioNova JV with SWEN Capital is advancing 4 significant Portfolio 1 projects to final investment decisions. Specifically, these include an additional bioethanol plant at Fernandina, prebiotics and CTO facilities at Jesup and an additional CTO facility at Tartas. With committed capital in place, these projects represent a total investment of approximately $110 million and are projected to generate around $39 million in annual EBITDA.
幻燈片 13 重點介紹了我們未來的生物材料專案管道。我們與 SWEN Capital 成立的 BioNova 合資企業正在推進 4 個重要的 Portfolio 1 項目以做出最終投資決策。具體來說,這些包括位於費南迪納的額外生物乙醇工廠、位於傑瑟普的益生元和 CTO 工廠以及位於塔爾塔斯的額外 CTO 工廠。在承諾資本到位的情況下,這些項目的總投資額約為 1.1 億美元,預計每年將產生約 3,900 萬美元的 EBITDA。
Due to strategic financing structures and favorable market valuations, we expect exceptional RYAM equity returns of 7 times ROI. The Altamaha Green Energy or AGE project at Jesup developed in partnership with the Beasley Group further complements our biomaterials portfolio. Scheduled for completion in late 2028, AGE leverages our existing Jesup site infrastructure. RYAM's 49% share of the AGE pretax income is expected to be $30 million annually through a secured 30-year fixed price power purchase agreement with Georgia Power.
由於策略性融資結構和有利的市場估值,我們預期 RYAM 的股權報酬率將達到投資報酬率的 7 倍。與 Beasley Group 合作開發的位於 Jesup 的 Altamaha Green Energy 或 AGE 專案進一步補充了我們的生物材料產品組合。AGE 計劃於 2028 年底完工,它將利用我們現有的 Jesup 站點基礎設施。透過與 Georgia Power 簽訂的為期 30 年的固定價格購電協議,RYAM 預計將獲得 AGE 稅前收入的 49% 份額,每年為 3000 萬美元。
With RYAM's equity contribution of about $40 million towards the $500 million project, we anticipate equity returns ranging from 10 to 12x ROI, clearly demonstrating once again the compelling financial returns achievable through our biomaterials initiatives.
RYAM 為這個價值 5 億美元的項目貢獻了約 4000 萬美元的股權,我們預計股權回報率將達到投資回報率的 10 到 12 倍,這再次清楚地證明了透過我們的生物材料計劃可以實現的令人信服的財務回報。
Now moving to slide 14, I'd like to reinforce the unique competitive advantage that we believe RYAM possesses. Our ability to recycle capital into high-return biomaterial projects driven by our extensive asset base. Illustratively, our Jesup facility alone is estimated to have a replacement cost exceeding $4 billion. This asset base provides us with unmatched flexibility and cost efficiency when launching new initiatives.
現在轉到第 14 張投影片,我想強調我們認為 RYAM 擁有的獨特競爭優勢。我們擁有豐富的資產基礎,能夠將資本循環利用到高回報的生物材料專案中。舉例來說,光是我們的傑瑟普工廠的重置成本就估計超過 40 億美元。這項資產基礎為我們啟動新計畫提供了無與倫比的靈活性和成本效益。
Unlike potential competitors who must start from scratch, we have existing infrastructure and technical know-how already in place, giving us a clear cost advantage over any newcomers.
與必須從頭開始的潛在競爭對手不同,我們已經擁有現有的基礎設施和技術知識,這使我們比任何新來者都有明顯的成本優勢。
These initiatives aren't speculative ventures carrying technical or market validation risks. Their commercial viability has already been clearly validated in markets by competitors such as Borregaard. Our recent signed memorandum of understanding with Verso Energy for exploring eSAF opportunities in both Jesup and Tartas and with GranBio for a pilot-scale ethanol or jet plant at Jesup are validation of the rich pipeline of potential high-return opportunities that leverage our asset base and provide visibility for our growth and value creation for years to come.
這些措施並不是具有技術或市場驗證風險的投機行為。它們的商業可行性已在市場上得到了 Borregaard 等競爭對手的明確驗證。我們最近與 Verso Energy 簽署了諒解備忘錄,將在傑瑟普和塔爾塔斯探索 eSAF 機會,並與 GranBio 簽署了諒解備忘錄,將在傑瑟普建立中試規模的乙醇或噴氣燃料工廠,這證實了我們擁有豐富的潛在高回報機會,這些機會可以利用我們的資產基礎,並為我們未來幾年的增長和價值創造可見性。
Slide 15 highlights our strong solid financial foundation, which remains critical to executing our strategy. As of the end of Q2, RYAM maintained strong liquidity totaling approximately $202 million, including around $71 million of cash on hand.
投影片 15 突顯了我們強大而堅實的財務基礎,這對於執行我們的策略仍然至關重要。截至第二季末,RYAM 保持強勁的流動性,總額約為 2.02 億美元,其中包括約 7,100 萬美元的現金。
Additionally, we continue to operate well below our covenant thresholds. Using a disciplined approach to capital allocation, coupled with strong cash flow management will enable us to fund strategic initiatives internally without shareholder dilution.
此外,我們的營運規模仍遠低於我們的契約門檻。採用嚴謹的資本配置方法,加上強大的現金流量管理,將使我們能夠在不稀釋股東權益的情況下為內部策略計畫提供資金。
Additionally, the potential divestitures of our noncore paperboard and high-yield pulp segments, as discussed earlier, will further materially strengthen our financial position. Anticipated proceeds will significantly improve our leverage profile, further enhancing our strategic flexibility and allowing us to continue funding high-return growth initiatives and explore potential shareholder returns down the road.
此外,如前所述,我們非核心紙板和高產量紙漿部門的潛在剝離將進一步增強我們的財務狀況。預期收益將顯著改善我們的槓桿狀況,進一步增強我們的策略靈活性,並使我們能夠繼續為高回報成長計劃提供資金,並探索未來潛在的股東回報。
In addition, our existing term debt becomes callable in 2026, providing a meaningful opportunity to reprice our debt and significantly reduce interest expense, further enhancing free cash flow. Illustratively, if we can lower the interest rate by 400 basis points and use the proceeds from the sale of the Temiscaming asset of $180 million to pay down the debt, the cash interest would be reduced by over $40 million per year.
此外,我們現有的定期債務將於 2026 年到期,這為重新定價債務和大幅降低利息支出提供了有意義的機會,進一步增強了自由現金流。舉例來說,如果我們能將利率降低 400 個基點,並使用出售 Temiscaming 資產所得的 1.8 億美元來償還債務,那麼每年的現金利息將減少 4000 多萬美元。
We anticipate generating exceptional free cash flow as our EBITDA grows. RYAM's targeted 2027 run rate core EBITDA of over $300 million would imply nearly $140 million of free cash flow to be utilized in high-return growth investments, further deleveraging and shareholder returns.
隨著 EBITDA 的成長,我們預計會產生卓越的自由現金流。RYAM 的目標是 2027 年核心 EBITDA 超過 3 億美元,這意味著近 1.4 億美元的自由現金流將用於高回報成長投資、進一步去槓桿和股東回報。
Finally, on slide 16, I'd like to summarize the compelling investment opportunity RYAM represents. We believe our current value significantly understates the intrinsic strengths and growth potential embedded in our business. The temporary 2025 headwinds detailed earlier, tariffs, operational disruptions, environmental charges and foreign exchange impacts appears to be now largely behind us. We enjoy strong competitive positioning in our core business. Our strategic initiatives in cellulose specialties and biomaterials are well on track, and our financial foundation is solid.
最後,在第 16 張投影片上,我想總結一下 RYAM 所代表的引人注目的投資機會。我們認為,我們目前的價值大大低估了我們業務的內在優勢和成長潛力。前面詳述的 2025 年暫時逆風、關稅、營運中斷、環境費用和外匯影響現在似乎已基本成為過去。我們在核心業務中享有強大的競爭地位。我們在纖維素特殊產品和生物材料方面的策略性舉措進展順利,財務基礎穩固。
Applying conservative peer multiples to our forecasted normalized 2027 EBITDA demonstrates a clear valuation upside of approximately 8 times to 10 times our current market valuation. As investors increasingly recognize our compelling strategic positioning, the value of our biomaterials initiatives and the structural improvements we've made across the enterprise, we firmly believe substantial shareholder value creation lies ahead.
將保守的同業倍數應用於我們預測的 2027 年標準化 EBITDA,顯示估值明顯上漲,約為目前市場估值的 8 倍至 10 倍。隨著投資者越來越認識到我們引人注目的策略定位、生物材料計劃的價值以及我們在整個企業中所做的結構性改進,我們堅信未來將為股東創造巨大的價值。
In summary, while 2025 represents a set of extraordinary headwinds, we believe the most significant impacts are now behind us. With strong recovery momentum, a disciplined capital strategy, compelling growth initiatives in cellulose specialties and biomaterials, we believe RYAM is well and uniquely positioned to unlock significant shareholder value.
總而言之,雖然 2025 年將面臨一系列非同尋常的逆風,但我們相信,最重大的影響已經過去。憑藉強勁的復甦勢頭、嚴謹的資本策略以及纖維素特種產品和生物材料領域引人注目的成長計劃,我們相信 RYAM 擁有獨特優勢,能夠釋放巨大的股東價值。
At current valuation levels, we believe there is a disconnect between our market price and underlying fundamentals, presenting a compelling opportunity for investors as our strategy progresses. With that, I'll turn the call now over to Marcus for additional financial and segment level insights. Marcus.
在目前的估值水準下,我們認為我們的市場價格與基本面之間存在脫節,隨著我們的策略進展,這將為投資者提供一個極具吸引力的機會。有了這些,我現在將把電話轉給馬庫斯,以獲得更多財務和細分層面的見解。馬庫斯。
Marcus Moeltner - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance
Marcus Moeltner - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance
Thank you, De Lyle.
謝謝你,德萊爾。
Let's now turn to slide 17, which summarizes our second-quarter 2025 financial highlights. In the second quarter, revenue was $340 million, down $79 million year over year. Operating loss was $1 million, declining by $29 million compared to the prior year. Adjusted free cash flow year-to-date was negative $52 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $28 million, a $40 million decrease compared to the second quarter of last year.
現在讓我們翻到第 17 張投影片,它總結了我們 2025 年第二季的財務亮點。第二季營收為3.4億美元,年減7,900萬美元。營業虧損為 100 萬美元,較前一年減少 2,900 萬美元。年初至今的調整後自由現金流為負 5,200 萬美元,調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,800 萬美元,與去年第二季相比減少了 4,000 萬美元。
As a reminder, the prior year period included a $10 million benefit associated with deferred income from the Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy program known as CEWS. The primary drivers of the EBITDA decline this quarter can be summarized with the following highlights. In CS, earnings decreased by approximately $22 million, driven by lower sales volumes due to tariff-related disruptions and the indefinite suspension of the Temiscaming HPC line, along with higher input costs and operational challenges at our Tartas facility due to the labor strike.
提醒一下,去年同期包括一筆與加拿大緊急工資補貼計劃(稱為 CEWS)遞延收入相關的 1,000 萬美元福利。本季 EBITDA 下降的主要驅動因素可以概括為以下幾點。在 CS 領域,收益減少了約 2,200 萬美元,原因是關稅相關中斷和 Temiscaming HPC 生產線無限期停產導致銷售量下降,以及工人罷工導致投入成本增加和 Tartas 工廠面臨營運挑戰。
The Paperboard segment saw earnings decline by $10 million, reflecting lower sales volumes and prices impacted by indirect tariff effects and increased competitive activity. In high-yield pulp, earnings decreased by approximately $9 million, driven by lower pricing and volumes due to continued oversupply conditions in China and broader macroeconomic headwinds.
紙板部門的收益下降了 1000 萬美元,反映出受間接關稅效應和競爭加劇的影響,銷售量和價格下降。高產量紙漿的收益減少了約 900 萬美元,因為中國持續的供應過剩狀況和更廣泛的宏觀經濟逆風導致價格和產量下降。
Given these results, we have revised our full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $150 million to $160 million, which implies second half EBITDA of approximately $105 million to $115 million. Adjusted free cash flow guidance is estimated at negative $10 million to $25 million for the full year, with positive free cash flow of approximately $35 million anticipated in the second half of the year.
鑑於這些結果,我們已將 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引修訂為 1.5 億美元至 1.6 億美元,這意味著下半年 EBITDA 約為 1.05 億美元至 1.15 億美元。調整後的自由現金流指引預計全年為負 1,000 萬美元至 2,500 萬美元,預計下半年自由現金流為正約 3,500 萬美元。
Let's now review our segment results, beginning with Cellulose Specialties on slide 18. Quarterly net sales for CS decreased $33 million to $208 million. A 3% increase in sales prices was more than offset by a 15% decline in sales volumes, driven by tariff-related order pauses in April and May, elevated prior year sales ahead of the Temiscaming HPC indefinite suspension and the labor strike at Tartas.
現在讓我們回顧一下各部門的業績,從幻燈片 18 上的纖維素特種產品開始。CS 季度淨銷售額下降 3,300 萬美元至 2.08 億美元。銷售價格上漲 3%,但銷量下降 15%,這抵消了價格上漲的負面影響,原因是 4 月和 5 月與關稅相關的訂單暫停,以及 Temiscaming HPC 無限期停產和 Tartas 工人罷工之前上年銷售額的增長。
Operating income declined $21 million year-over-year to $29 million. This decline was mainly due to lower sales volumes, higher input costs and lower production due to the operational challenges and labor strike at Tartas. Adjusted EBITDA margins declined to 22% from 28% a year ago.
營業收入較去年同期下降 2,100 萬美元至 2,900 萬美元。下降的主要原因是銷售量下降、投入成本上升以及 Tartas 的營運挑戰和工人罷工導致產量下降。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率從一年前的 28% 下降至 22%。
On slide 19, in our Biomaterials segment, net sales declined by $2 million year-over-year to $6 million caused by operational challenges and the labor strike at Tartas, which temporarily limited feedstock availability for the bioethanol facility. Operating income was flat at $1 million as reduced higher shared service and ancillary costs were offset by lower production costs. Adjusted EBITDA margin for this segment was 17% compared to 25% in the prior year, reflecting the temporary operational impacts.
在投影片 19 中,在我們的生物材料部門,淨銷售額年減 200 萬美元至 600 萬美元,因為營運挑戰和 Tartas 的勞工罷工暫時限制了生物乙醇工廠的原料供應。由於共享服務和輔助成本的增加被生產成本的降低所抵消,營業收入持平於 100 萬美元。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 17%,而上年為 25%,反映了暫時的營運影響。
Turning to Cellulose Commodities on slide 20, net sales decreased by $26 million to $59 million, driven by a 33% decline in sales volumes due to lower non-fluff commodity sales and the labor strike at Tartas, partially offset by a 7% increase in sales prices, driven by market supply dynamics for fluff. Operating results improved by $12 million compared to last year, reducing the operating loss to $9 million. This improvement reflects lower non-fluff commodity losses, reduced indefinite suspension charges and favorable input costs, partially offset by the lower production volumes related to operational challenges.
再來看幻燈片 20 上的纖維素商品,淨銷售額減少了 2,600 萬美元,降至 5,900 萬美元,原因是非絨毛商品銷售額下降和 Tartas 工人罷工導致銷售額下降 33%,但受絨毛市場供應動態的影響,銷售價格上漲 7%,部分抵消了這一影響。經營業績較去年同期成長1,200萬美元,經營虧損減少至900萬美元。這項改善反映了非絨毛商品損失的減少、無限期暫停費用的減少和有利的投入成本,但與營運挑戰相關的產量下降部分抵消了這項改善。
Our paperboard results are detailed on slide 21. Net sales declined by $13 million year-over-year to $47 million, reflecting a 23% decline in sales volumes and a 3% decrease in prices impacted by product mix, shifting customer dynamics tied to tariff uncertainty and increased competitive activity due to higher EU imports and new US capacity. Operating income declined $12 million year over year, primarily due to lower sales volumes and pricing and Temiscaming custodial site costs. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $5 million, with margins declining to 11% from 25% in the prior year quarter.
我們的紙板結果詳見投影片 21。淨銷售額年減 1,300 萬美元至 4,700 萬美元,反映出銷售量下降 23% 以及受產品組合影響的價格下降 3%、與關稅不確定性相關的客戶動態變化以及由於歐盟進口增加和美國新產能導致的競爭活動加劇。營業收入較去年同期下降 1,200 萬美元,主要原因是銷售量和定價下降以及 Temiscaming 託管站點成本下降。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 500 萬美元,利潤率從去年同期的 25% 下降至 11%。
Lastly, slide 22 covers our High-yield Pulp segment. Net sales decreased $4 million year-over-year to $29 million driven by an 11% decline in sales prices and a 7% reduction in sales volumes, reflecting continued oversupply conditions in China and shipment timing delays to customers in India. Operating loss increased by $8 million to $7 million, primarily due to lower pricing, reduced volumes, higher logistics costs and Temiscaming custodial site costs.
最後,第 22 張幻燈片介紹了我們的高產量紙漿部分。淨銷售額年減 400 萬美元至 2,900 萬美元,原因是銷售價格下降 11% 且銷售量減少 7%,反映出中國持續的供應過剩狀況以及對印度客戶的發貨時間延遲。營業虧損增加了 800 萬美元,達到 700 萬美元,主要原因是價格下降、銷售減少、物流成本上升以及 Temiscaming 託管站點成本增加。
With that, operator, please open the call to questions.
接線員,請開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.
(操作員指示) Matthew McKellar,RBC Capital Markets。
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
First, I'd just like to ask, what kind of time line are you anticipating for having this dissolving wood pulp fluff product approved for sale in China at 0 tariffs and qualified with the Chinese customers? And how should we think about the potential pickup in EBITDA that would be associated to this in the context of any changes in cost to produce the product versus the traditional fluff and the volumes that you then expect to sell into China?
首先,我想問一下,您預計這種溶解木漿絨毛產品需要多長時間才能獲准在中國以零關稅銷售並獲得中國客戶的認可?那麼,在生產該產品相對於傳統產品的成本變化以及您預計銷往中國的銷量增加的背景下,我們應該如何看待與此相關的 EBITDA 的潛在回升?
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Matt, this is De Lyle. The question on fluff and our product development around the new dissolving wood pulp fluff. We have -- where we are with that right now is that we have sent and are sending material to our customers in China as we speak for their trials and qualifications. And if those go well, then the expectation is as we approach 2026, that we'll be able to commercialize those going forward.
馬特,這是德萊爾。關於絨毛的問題以及我們圍繞新型溶解木漿絨毛的產品開發。我們目前的情況是,我們已經並正在向中國的客戶發送材料,以供他們進行試驗和獲得資格。如果一切進展順利,那麼預計到 2026 年,我們將能夠實現這些技術的商業化。
In terms of impact on EBITDA, a little harder to say other than to suggest that the increase in cost to make the dissolving wood pulp fluff versus our standard fluff is a little bit higher than it would be otherwise. And that's fully to be expected given that the purity level will be higher. But at the end of the day, we do expect that as we introduce that product that we'll recapture most, if not all, of our share loss as a result of the 10% tariff that we have right now going into China.
就對 EBITDA 的影響而言,除了顯示製造溶解木漿絨毛與標準絨毛相比的成本增加比其他情況要高一點之外,很難說。由於純度水平會更高,這是完全可以預料到的。但最終,我們確實希望,隨著我們推出該產品,我們將收回因目前對中國徵收 10% 關稅而造成的大部分(如果不是全部)份額損失。
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Next for me, just on the structural cost reduction initiatives. Is the $24 million of capital you've mentioned to be spent entirely in 2026? Or does that incorporate any spending in 2025? And then should we think about that $30 million target is what you capture in '26 or your exit rate?
接下來我要談談結構性成本削減措施。您提到的2400萬美元資金會在2026年全部花完嗎?或者這是否包括了 2025 年的任何支出?那麼我們是否應該考慮一下 3000 萬美元的目標是您在 26 年實現的還是您的退出率?
And just last, the initiatives at Temiscaming, how should we think about the timing of execution there? Is that also effectively a run rate to exit '26?
最後,關於 Temiscaming 的舉措,我們應該如何考慮在那裡執行的時間?這是否也是 26 年退出的有效運行率?
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So addressing the cost savings that was mentioned, the $30 million that we had mentioned in the presentation and the $24 million of capital we spent, most of that $24 million in capital will be spent in '25. And the $30 million of value that we noted will be realized as we expect to realize that in 2026. So we'll be positioned as we enter '26 to realize those savings.
好的。因此,談到提到的成本節約,我們在演示中提到的 3000 萬美元和我們花費的 2400 萬美元資本,其中大部分將在 2400 萬美元資本中花費。我們所指出的 3000 萬美元的價值預計將在 2026 年實現。因此,當我們進入 26 年時,我們將實現這些節省。
With respect to what Temiscaming and the turnaround there, we were somewhat fortunate in that we are well positioned coming into '25 with introducing a number of the new products that was noted. And as a consequence as we go into '26, we believe that we'll be well along our way in terms of getting those products qualified and introduced into the market in '26.
就 Temiscaming 及其轉型而言,我們很幸運,因為我們在 2025 年已經做好了準備,推出了一些值得關注的新產品。因此,當我們進入 26 年時,我們相信,我們將在使這些產品獲得認證並在 26 年推向市場方面取得良好的進展。
So the freezer board, which has now been fully certified and is the customers for trials now, the oil and grease board, which is passed through our production trials and is now going to our customers for their work to do to qualify the product. Again, we believe that those products will be well positioned to commercialize in '25 -- in '26.
因此,冷凍板現已完全通過認證,正在供客戶試用,油脂板也已通過我們的生產試驗,現在正交給我們的客戶進行產品認證。我們再次相信,這些產品將在 2025 年至 2026 年實現商業化。
The high-yield pulp softwood rolls product that would go -- which is a brand-new product for us in high yield, is targeted to go into China as a low-grade absorptive product to -- for bed pads and for pet pads and things like that. There was a number of steps we had to get through. And the first step, which was to show that we could make a softwood pulp off of one of our high-yield pulp lines, which historically has been hardwood. And that trial has -- we've just completed and was largely successful.
高產量紙漿軟木捲產品——這對我們來說是一種全新的高產量產品,目標是作為低檔吸收產品進入中國——用於床墊和寵物墊等產品。我們必須完成許多步驟。第一步是證明我們可以利用我們的一條高產量紙漿生產線生產軟木紙漿,而這條生產線過去一直是用硬木生產的。我們剛剛完成該試驗,並且取得了巨大成功。
The next is to pass that pulp through our idled HPC machine and roll line, which we plan to do in the next few weeks. And then we'll ship that to our customers in September, October for their trials, again, expecting that we would get those trials completed in the fourth quarter so that we can introduce that product in the first quarter of 2026.
下一步是將紙漿通過我們閒置的 HPC 機器和軋製線,我們計劃在接下來的幾週內完成。然後,我們會在 9 月、10 月將其發送給客戶進行試用,同樣,我們期望在第四季度完成這些試用,以便我們可以在 2026 年第一季推出該產品。
And why I mentioned all that is because a large share of the $35 million benefit is tied to new product development. And so it's important for us. And I would call that actually our critical path elements to achieve that $35 million of benefit. The rest of the benefit is really around cost reduction and improving the operating efficiencies of the paperboard line through automation, better planning, reducing grade changes, those kind of things, which, again, utilizing an outside resource. We brought in FTI Global to help us out on identifying those opportunities and helping us to execute that again, as we enter into 2026.
我之所以提到這些,是因為 3500 萬美元收益中的很大一部分與新產品開發有關。所以這對我們很重要。我實際上將其稱為實現 3500 萬美元收益的關鍵路徑要素。其餘的好處實際上是透過自動化、更好的規劃、減少等級變化等來降低成本並提高紙板生產線的營運效率,這些都再次利用了外部資源。我們引入了 FTI Global 來幫助我們識別這些機會,並在我們進入 2026 年時幫助我們再次執行這些機會。
Expect that we may not get the full $35 million of benefit in '26, but we should get a lion's share of that in that year.
預計我們可能無法在 26 年獲得全部 3500 萬美元的福利,但我們應該在那一年獲得其中的最大份額。
Operator
Operator
Daniel Harriman, Sidoti.
丹尼爾·哈里曼,西多蒂。
Daniel Harriman - Equity Analyst
Daniel Harriman - Equity Analyst
Just a couple of quick ones to start off. You're conservatively forecasting $30 million in incremental EBITDA within cellulose specialties through '27. Understanding that's conservative, can you kind of go into what would need to go right to outperform that number?
首先介紹幾個簡單的問題。您保守預測,到 27 年,纖維素特種產品的 EBITDA 增量將達到 3,000 萬美元。了解到這是保守的,您能否詳細說明需要採取哪些措施才能超越這個數字?
And then on your 2027 core business run rate EBITDA, you're looking to generate $140 million in annual free cash flow. At that stage, obviously, right now, even considering the issues you've had, your balance sheet remains in really good shape.
然後,根據您 2027 年的核心業務運作率 EBITDA,您希望產生 1.4 億美元的年度自由現金流。在那個階段,顯然,現在,即使考慮到您遇到的問題,您的資產負債表仍然狀況良好。
So how should we think about capital deployment in 2027? Would you continue to work down the debt and invest in some of these high-return capital projects? Or does that open the door for potential share repurchases or other mechanisms that you could use?
那麼,我們該如何思考2027年的資本配置呢?您會繼續償還債務並投資一些高回報的資本項目嗎?或者這是否為潛在的股票回購或其他您可以使用的機制打開了大門?
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Let me try to address each one of your questions in sequence. First, the $30 million of additional cellulose specialty margin growth through 2027. That's really tied to the substitution of cellulose specialties in exchange for the commodities. So what's really driving is the organic growth we expect of CS over the next couple of years. And then as that grows, we will then replace the CC or the commodity production that we currently have.
讓我嘗試按順序回答您的每一個問題。首先,到 2027 年,纖維素特種產品利潤將額外增加 3,000 萬美元。這其實與用纖維素特種產品取代商品有關。因此,真正推動CS發展的是我們預期未來幾年的有機成長。然後隨著其成長,我們將取代目前擁有的 CC 或商品生產。
So the underlying assumption is that we will grow and increase our volumes roughly 15,000 tons per year, so 30,000 tons in total during those two years. And the pricing differential of roughly $1,000 per ton of specialty versus commodity is really how you go about calculating that margin improvement. Does that make sense?
因此,基本的假設是,我們的產量每年將增加約 15,000 噸,因此在這兩年內總產量將達到 30,000 噸。特種產品和普通產品每噸約 1,000 美元的定價差異實際上是計算利潤率提高的方法。這樣有道理嗎?
Daniel Harriman - Equity Analyst
Daniel Harriman - Equity Analyst
Yes, it does.
是的。
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. With respect --
好的。尊敬--
Marcus Moeltner - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance
Marcus Moeltner - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance
Capital allocation, second question, right, Dan?
資本配置,第二個問題,對吧,丹?
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Dan, can you repeat the --
是的,丹,你能重複一下--
Daniel Harriman - Equity Analyst
Daniel Harriman - Equity Analyst
Sure. Just looking at '27, your run rate core business EBITDA, you're assuming that will generate $140 million in free cash flow. And your balance sheet right now remains in good shape despite the issues you've had through the first 6 months. So I'm just wondering how we should think about capital allocation over the horizon there in terms of continued debt repayment or more geared towards investment in high-return capital projects.
當然。僅看一下 27 年,您的運行率核心業務 EBITDA,您假設它將產生 1.4 億美元的自由現金流。儘管您在前六個月遇到了一些問題,但您的資產負債表目前仍然狀況良好。所以我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮未來的資本配置,是繼續償還債務還是更多地投資於高回報的資本項目。
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So with respect to how we use the capital as we go forward, particularly the free cash flow, the focus will be on generating and executing on high-return projects as we plan through 2027. We believe that there are a number of those projects, both on the cost reduction side as well as on revenue growth opportunities. We kind of outlined a couple of them in the presentation, which are around eSAF and bioethanol to jet opportunities.
好的。因此,關於我們未來如何使用資本,特別是自由現金流,重點將放在 2027 年計劃的生成和執行高回報項目上。我們相信,有許多這樣的項目,既可以降低成本,又可以增加收入。我們在演示中概述了其中的幾個,涉及 eSAF 和生物乙醇到噴射機的機會。
So we think that there will continue to be projects that will provide substantial equity returns for us for the next few years. There will always be a desire to pay down debt. I've stated time and again that we'd like to pay down debt around 5% of the principal per year. In '25, we were restricted on doing that given our new debt agreement. But again, that will be something that we would look to do with some of the capital going forward.
因此我們認為,未來幾年將繼續有專案為我們提供可觀的股權回報。人們總是有償還債務的願望。我曾多次表示,我們希望每年償還約 5% 的本金。1925 年,由於新的債務協議,我們受到限制這樣做。但同樣,這將是我們希望利用部分資金來做的事情。
As projects dry up or if the return on those projects get to a certain level that is no longer -- would be no longer attractive to our shareholders, of course, we would then consider possibly returning capital back to the shareholders. But I would say that's probably a little further down the list given the, I would say, rich library of opportunities we have to invest the capital in the business.
當專案枯竭或這些專案的回報達到某個水平,不再對我們的股東具有吸引力時,我們當然會考慮將資本回饋給股東。但我想說,考慮到我們擁有大量投資業務資本的機會,這可能會排在後面一點。
Marcus Moeltner - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance
Marcus Moeltner - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance
And, Dan, (inaudible) right? The amortization is around $22 million that De Lyle mentioned, so roughly 3%. So we're close to 5%. And a natural place to allocate capital that De Lyle covered in his deck was the AGE investment, right, because that's outside of BioNova.
還有,丹,(聽不清楚)對吧?德萊爾提到的攤銷額約為 2,200 萬美元,約 3%。因此我們接近5%。德萊爾在他的演講中提到的一個自然的資本配置地點是 AGE 投資,對吧,因為它在 BioNova 之外。
Operator
Operator
Dmitry Silversteyn, Water Tower Research.
德米特里·西爾弗斯泰恩,水塔研究。
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
I want to go back a little bit to your cost reduction, $30 million of cost reduction that you're looking to get out of corporate and operations. How fast do you think that you can get to that run rate given that some of these things, particularly the noncorporate portions will require some time as far as automation and things like that, that you're targeting to get these cost savings?
我想稍微回顧一下你們的成本削減問題,你們希望從公司和營運中削減 3000 萬美元的成本。考慮到其中一些事情,特別是非企業部分,在自動化等方面需要一些時間,您認為您能多快達到這個運行率,而您的目標是實現這些成本節約?
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The -- how fast we can get to the $30 million run rate is that we expect that we'll be at that run rate as we enter 2026. A lot of the investments needed to achieve that run rate outside of corporate have already been invested or are being invested and the expectation of those projects will be completed as we exit this year.
我們能夠多快達到 3000 萬美元的運行率,我們預計在進入 2026 年時我們將達到這一運行率。實現該運行率所需的大量公司外部投資已經完成或正在投入,預計這些項目將在今年退出時完成。
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
Okay. So you will see a gradual improvement in the back end of the year and you hit that run rate going into 2026.
好的。因此,您將在年底看到逐步改善,並在 2026 年達到此運行率。
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And it will be relatively minor because most of these projects will largely be completed in like the fourth quarter.
而且影響相對較小,因為大多數項目將在第四季度左右基本完工。
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
Got it, De Lyle.
明白了,德萊爾。
And then you mentioned the sort of the positive impact of tariffs as you get into the second half of the year into 2026, specifically the 15% and the 50% tariffs are on EU and Brazil imports. Clearly, you will benefit from that. So I'm kind of interested in how you're thinking about this. Are you going to benefit from it in terms of gaining market share being a lower-cost producer than the Europeans and the Brazilians plus the tariff or do you see that as an opportunity to be able to continue to raise prices in these markets as they are, as you mentioned, with 90% capacity utilization in the industry clearly are set up for continuing price increases.
然後您提到了進入 2026 年下半年關稅的正面影響,特別是對歐盟和巴西進口產品徵收 15% 和 50% 的關稅。顯然,你會從中受益。所以我對你如何看待這個問題很感興趣。作為比歐洲和巴西更低成本的生產商,您是否會從中獲得市場份額,再加上關稅,或者您是否認為這是一個繼續提高這些市場價格的機會,因為正如您所提到的,該行業的產能利用率為 90%,顯然已經為持續的價格上漲做好了準備。
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good question.
好問題。
And I could spend a long time talking about how we internally have been gaining that -- those scenarios about what the tariffs would mean to us, the -- call them the tailwind tariffs, the tariffs on EU imports and the tariffs on Brazilian imports. When I look at pricing, and we've talked about this for the last couple of years, we believe in a value versus volume strategy when it comes to our CS business. So we will continue to look for inflation plus pricing on our CS business so that pricing goes up at least more than inflation and a little higher than inflation to capture what we believe is the intrinsic value of our product offering. So we will continue to do that.
我可以花很長時間來談論我們內部是如何獲得這些關稅對我們意味著什麼的,這些關稅被稱為順風關稅、對歐盟進口產品的關稅和巴西進口產品的關稅。當我考慮定價時,我們在過去幾年中也討論過這個問題,我們相信,對於我們的 CS 業務來說,價值與數量的策略是一致的。因此,我們將繼續尋求通貨膨脹加上我們 CS 業務的定價,以便定價至少比通貨膨脹率高出一點,以捕捉我們認為的產品的內在價值。因此我們將繼續這樣做。
The 15% tariff obviously gives us -- will increase our headroom with respect to our competitive positioning relative to our competition. That may allow us to be a little bit more aggressive in defending our share in our home market here in the United States. So -- and maybe at the end of the day, we end up having that realized as increased margin going forward in terms of -- if it translates into a lower US dollar relative to other currencies. So I'm not going to -- the plan is not to use this as a club on our customers.
15% 的關稅顯然會為我們帶來——增加我們相對於競爭對手的競爭定位空間。這也許可以讓我們更積極地捍衛我們在美國本土市場的份額。因此,也許到最後,我們最終會意識到,如果美元相對於其他貨幣貶值,那麼利潤率就會提高。所以我不會——我們的計劃不是利用這個來對付我們的客戶。
But at the same time, we want to make sure that we completely lever it to strengthen our comparative advantage to -- relative to our competition here in our home market.
但同時,我們希望確保充分利用它來增強我們的比較優勢——相對於我們在本土市場的競爭。
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
Dmitry Silversteyn - Analyst
Understood. That's helpful.
明白了。這很有幫助。
And then final question. When you look at -- when you look at your biomaterials business, you're getting into new markets for you, but they're not brand-new markets. There are existing players there, including SAF, including tall oil.
接下來是最後一個問題。當你審視你的生物材料業務時,你會發現你正在進入新的市場,但它們並不是全新的市場。那裡有現有的參與者,包括 SAF,還有妥爾油。
Is your confidence of being able to ramp up your biomaterials business as rapidly through 2028 based on the fact that you see these markets growing fast enough to allow for new entrants such as yourself to gain market share without having to sacrifice price? Or do you intend to, as a new market entrant, use price to gain share?
您是否有信心在 2028 年之前迅速提升您的生物材料業務,因為您認為這些市場增長速度足夠快,足以讓像您這樣的新進入者獲得市場份額,而無需犧牲價格?或者,作為新進入市場的企業,您是否打算利用價格來獲取份額?
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay.
好的。
To just reemphasize, we're highly confident that we're going to be able to ramp up the construction of these facilities and commercialize them over the course of the next few years. We've gone through a lot of effort to get the engineering completed, working on the permitting to get that behind us, making sure the projects will achieve the investment hurdle thresholds that we've stated that we want to -- that we're enforcing. All that work is coming to a head here. And as we said, we expect to get the final investment decisions on the Portfolio 1 projects as well as AGE project by the end of this year.
再次強調,我們非常有信心在未來幾年內加快這些設施的建設並實現商業化。我們付出了很多努力來完成工程,並努力獲得許可,確保專案能夠達到我們所說的、我們正在執行的投資門檻。所有這些工作都在這裡進入尾聲。正如我們所說,我們預計將在今年年底前對 Portfolio 1 項目以及 AGE 項目做出最終投資決策。
So the confidence of being able to pull this off in terms of constructing the plants is very, very high. With respect to the strategy to enter the markets that we're pursuing, whether it be CTO or bioethanol or, call it, green electricity, we're a drop in the bucket. So our new supply isn't going to materially change the marketplace in any significant degree. We believe that as we -- as part of the financial -- as a result, as part of the financial investment decision, we will have in hand commercial agreements. That's one of the stipulations of getting to a financial investment decision is actually having a commercial agreement in hand that we will have the ability and already have the agreement to move that material before we even produce the first drop of any of those products.
因此,我們對能夠完成工廠建設的信心非常高。對於我們進入所追求的市場的策略而言,無論是 CTO 還是生物乙醇,或者我們稱之為綠色電力,我們都只是杯水車薪。因此,我們的新供應不會對市場產生任何重大的實質改變。我們相信,作為金融投資決策的一部分,我們將手握商業協議。這是做出金融投資決策的規定之一,實際上是手頭上有一份商業協議,即我們有能力並且已經達成協議,在生產出第一批產品之前就運輸這些材料。
Operator
Operator
At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to De Lyle Bloomquist for closing remarks.
現在,我想請德萊爾·布魯姆奎斯特 (De Lyle Bloomquist) 致閉幕詞。
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
DeLyle Bloomquist - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay.
好的。
Well, in summary, we believe 2025's temporary headwinds are largely behind us. We look forward to delivering strong sequential and year-over-year growth. Our entire team is enthusiastic about the future, and I feel fortunate to lead a company with strong competitive positioning and a robust pipeline of high-return growth projects.
總而言之,我們相信 2025 年的暫時逆風基本上已經過去了。我們期待實現強勁的連續和同比增長。我們整個團隊都對未來充滿熱情,我很幸運能夠領導一家擁有強大競爭優勢和強大高回報成長專案儲備的公司。
We believe we are well positioned for significant margin expansion, accelerating cash flow growth and disciplined capital deployment opportunities that can generate compelling returns, some with the potential to exceed 10x ROI based on current assumptions and market conditions. It is our job to execute as flawlessly as possible on this opportunity and to educate you, the investors, on our unique value proposition, and we intend to do that job well. Again, thank you for joining us this morning. If you have any questions, please reach out to us. We'll make ourselves available.
我們相信,我們已做好準備,大幅提高利潤率,加速現金流成長,並實現有紀律的資本配置機會,從而產生可觀的回報,根據目前的假設和市場條件,有些回報有可能超過 10 倍的投資回報率。我們的工作是盡可能完美地利用這個機會,並向投資者介紹我們獨特的價值主張,我們打算做好這項工作。再次感謝您今天早上加入我們。如果您有任何疑問,請與我們聯絡。我們將竭誠為您服務。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a great day.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路,並享受美好的一天。