Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc (RYAM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome again to RYAM's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast.

早安，歡迎再次參加 RYAM 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議和網路廣播。

And joining me on today's call are De Lyle Bloomquist, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Marcus Moeltner, our Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance.

與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 De Lyle Bloomquist 以及我們的財務長兼財務高級副總裁 Marcus Moeltner。

Our earnings release and presentation materials were issued last evening are available at our website Ryanair.com. I'd like to remind you that today's presentation will include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

我們昨晚發布的收益報告和簡報資料可在我們的網站 Ryanair.com 上取得。我想提醒您，今天的簡報將包括根據聯邦證券法安全港條款做出的前瞻性聲明。

Our earnings release, as well as our filings with the SEC list some of the factors which may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements we may make.

我們的收益發布以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們可能做出的前瞻性聲明有重大差異的因素。

They are also referenced on Slide 2 of our presentation materials.

我們的簡報資料的幻燈片 2 中也引用了它們。

Today's presentation will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的演示也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

As noted on slide 3 of our presentation, we believe non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for management and investors, but non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to GAAP measures.

正如我們簡報第 3 投影片中所指出的，我們認為非 GAAP 財務指標為管理層和投資者提供了有用的信息，但非 GAAP 指標不應被視為 GAAP 指標的替代品。

A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included on Slides 19 through 24 of our presentation.

我們簡報的投影片 19 至 24 中包含了這些指標與其最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to De Lyle.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給德萊爾。

So thank you, Mickey, and good morning.

謝謝你，米奇，早安。

I'll begin with the financial overview for the fourth quarter and full year 2023.

我將首先介紹 2023 年第四季和全年的財務概覽。

Following that, I'll discuss recent Company actions before handing over to Marcus for additional details on the business segments and our capital structure and liquidity after Mark's is update, I'll return to offer further insights into our 2024 initiatives and guidance, including an update on the sales process for that paperboard and high-yield pulp business before opening the call for questions.

接下來，我將討論最近的公司行動，然後在馬克更新後向馬庫斯提供有關業務部門以及我們的資本結構和流動性的更多詳細信息，我將返回對我們的2024 年計劃和指導提供進一步的見解，包括在開始提問之前，先介紹一下該紙板和高產紙漿業務的銷售流程的最新情況。

Let's now turn to slide 4 to review our performance in the fourth quarter and the full year of 2023.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 4 來回顧我們第四季和 2023 年全年的業績。

The results for both periods fell below expectations, with EBITDA of $37 million for the fourth quarter and $130 million for the full year, reflecting declines of $18 million and $38 million versus 2022, respectively.

兩個時期的業績均低於預期，第四季 EBITDA 為 3,700 萬美元，全年 EBITDA 為 1.3 億美元，較 2022 年分別下降 1,800 萬美元和 3,800 萬美元。

The fourth quarter shortfall can be attributed to weaker than expected demand for paperboard, while the full year results were impacted by persistent weak demand across various product categories.

第四季的短缺可歸因於紙板需求弱於預期，而全年業績則受到各產品類別需求持續疲軟的影響。

Notwithstanding the strong pricing observed in our CS segment, despite the challenges stemming from the weak paperboard results in Q4, I was encouraged by the rebound observed in our core cellulose specialty business.

儘管我們的 CS 業務定價強勁，儘管第四季度紙板業績疲弱帶來了挑戰，但我們核心纖維素特種業務的反彈令我感到鼓舞。

This was principally the result of increased market share accruing to us as a result of the closure of a competitor.

這主要是由於競爭對手的關閉而增加了我們的市場份額。

As we noted in our on our previous calls, we focus our efforts on free cash flow generation in the second half of 2023.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中指出的那樣，我們的重點是在 2023 年下半年產生自由現金流。

Given these macro headwinds, these efforts resulted in $53 million of free cash flow, which was largely driven by a $93 million benefit in working capital.

考慮到這些宏觀不利因素，這些努力帶來了 5,300 萬美元的自由現金流，這主要是由 9,300 萬美元的營運資本收益推動的。

We expect to maintain this benefit in 2024, and we think we can realize an additional $15 million in working capital monetization this year.

我們預計到 2024 年將保持這一效益，我們認為今年可以實現額外 1500 萬美元的營運資金貨幣化。

The challenges encountered in our High Purity Cellulose segment stemmed mainly from declining commodity pricing and decreased volumes in cellulose specialties, particularly in markets that are interest rate sensitive like the construction ethers markets.

我們的高純度纖維素細分市場遇到的挑戰主要源自於商品價格下降和纖維素特種產品銷售下降，特別是在建築醚市場等對利率敏感的市場。

Conversely, our cellulose specialty products maintained strong pricing realizing 11% increase compared to 2022.

相反，我們的纖維素特種產品保持強勁的定價，與 2022 年相比增長了 11%。

This result reflects our focus on prioritizing value over volume for our specialized products.

這一結果反映了我們對專業產品的價值優先於數量的重視。

In the Paperboard segment, EBITDA decreased by $1 million compared to 2022, primarily due to lower sales volumes from customer de-stocking, partially offset by decreased purchased pulp maintenance and logistics costs, along with market-driven downtime taken in response to the weak market conditions, high-yield pulp EBITDA decreased by $20 million versus 2022, driven by lower sales volumes and prices amid weak market demand, increased wood costs and market-driven downtime taken in response to the weak market conditions.

在紙板領域，與2022 年相比，EBITDA 減少了100 萬美元，主要是由於客戶去庫存導致銷量下降，但部分被採購紙漿維護和物流成本的下降以及為應對市場疲軟而採取的市場驅動的停機所抵消在這種情況下，高產紙漿 EBITDA 較 2022 年減少了 2000 萬美元，原因是市場需求疲軟導致銷量和價格下降、木材成本增加以及因市場狀況疲軟而導致的市場驅動的停工。

Corporate segment EBITDA declined by $11 million, primarily due to less favorable foreign exchange rates and discounting and financing fees incurred to support working capital enhancements.

企業部門 EBITDA 下降了 1,100 萬美元，主要是由於外匯匯率不利以及為支持營運資本增強而產生的折現和融資費用。

Next, I would like to offer some high-level commentary on a few significant events that occurred in the fourth quarter, each of which will be elaborated elaborated on by Marcus first, the finance team secured a covenant amendment for our 2027 term loan facility.

接下來，我想對第四季度發生的幾件重大事件提供一些高層評論，馬庫斯將首先詳細闡述每一件事件，財務團隊為我們的 2027 年定期貸款融資達成了契約修正案。

In January, we announced an amendment to expand the net secured debt covenant to 5.25 X.

一月份，我們宣布了一項修正案，將淨擔保債務契約擴大到 5.25 倍。

While we are confident in our ability to manage within the original covenant as evidenced by the results of up to 4.2 X for Q4, we wanted the operational flexibility that the expanded coveted and result looked pretty we grant us so we could continue to execute on our strategic initiatives.

雖然我們對我們在原始契約範圍內進行管理的能力充滿信心，第四季度高達4.2 X 的結果證明了這一點，但我們希望擴大後的營運靈活性和我們授予我們的結果看起來相當不錯，以便我們可以繼續執行我們的計劃策略舉措。

We also believe that the enhanced flexibility with also reassure key stakeholders.

我們也相信，靈活性的增強也讓主要利害關係人感到放心。

Second, we conducted a review of our existing assets and determined that impairments were necessary for our Temiscaming HPC. plant and the CN line at our adjusted plan.

其次，我們對現有資產進行了審查，並確定我們的 Temiscaming HPC 有必要進行減損。工廠和 CN 線按照我們調整後的計劃。

Regarding adjusted C line, we have made a strategic commitment to focus his capacity of fluff production going forward.

關於調整後的C線，我們做出了戰略承諾，未來將重點放在其絨毛生產能力上。

And conversely focused suggestive specialty cellulose production on the A. and B lines, the write-off related to the Temiscaming HPC plant reflects the transition of the Temiscaming HBC. facility to viscose production, which we are doing to leverage as low unit variable costs.

相反，將暗示性特種纖維素生產集中在 A. 和 B 生產線上，與 Temiscaming HPC 工廠相關的沖銷反映了 Temiscaming HBC 的轉型。我們正在利用黏膠生產設施來降低單位變動成本。

The total impact of these two non-cash write offs of $62 million.

這兩次非現金註銷的總影響為 6,200 萬美元。

With that, I'd like to pass the meeting over to Marcus to walk us through the financials for the year.

說到這裡，我想把會議交給馬庫斯，讓他向我們介紹今年的財務狀況。

Marcus?

馬庫斯？

Thank you, De Lyle.

謝謝你，德萊爾。

Beginning with our High Purity Cellulose segment on Slide 5.

從投影片 5 上的高純度纖維素部分開始。

Sales for the year decreased by $23 million or 2% to $1.3 billion due to a higher mix of commodity sales and lower market demand in certain specialty markets.

由於商品銷售組合增加以及某些專業市場的市場需求下降，全年銷售額下降 2,300 萬美元或 2%，至 13 億美元。

That decline was primarily driven by a 13% decrease in commodity sales prices, partially offset by an 11% increase in CS pricing, highlighting our commitment to securing fair value for our specialty offerings.

這一下降主要是由於大宗商品銷售價格下降 13%，部分被 CS 定價上漲 11% 所抵消，這凸顯了我們對確保專業產品公允價值的承諾。

Sales volumes increased by 4% to 955,000 metric tons, resulting from the increased sales into commodity markets.

由於商品市場銷量增加，銷量成長 4% 至 955,000 噸。

Commodity sales volumes rose by 39% compared to the prior year, whereas CS volumes decreased by 18%.

與前一年相比，大宗商品銷量成長了 39%，而消費品銷量則下降了 18%。

The decline was associated with lower market demand and substantial customer destocking, primarily in construction markets.

這一下降與市場需求下降和客戶大量去庫存（主要是建築市場）有關。

Other sales for the year were $98 million, which included $49 million of green energy sales.

該年度其他銷售額為 9,800 萬美元，其中包括 4,900 萬美元的綠色能源銷售額。

Ebitda for the segment decreased by $6 million to $144 million, primarily due to a less favorable sales mix, declining commodity prices and increased labor costs due to inflation.

該部門的 Ebitda 減少了 600 萬美元，至 1.44 億美元，主要是由於銷售組合不利、大宗商品價格下跌以及通貨膨脹導致的勞動力成本增加。

These impacts were partially offset by higher CS sales price.

這些影響被較高的 CS 銷售價格部分抵銷。

As Neil mentioned earlier, we undertook a review of our existing assets and concluded that impairments were necessary for our Temiscaming HBC. plant and the GSFC. line, the total non-cash impact on operating income amounts to $62 million.

正如 Neil 先前提到的，我們對現有資產進行了審查，並得出結論認為，我們的 Temiscaming HBC 有必要進行減損。工廠和 GSFC。線，對營業收入的非現金影響總額達 6,200 萬美元。

This will result in a lower annual depreciation expense of approximately $5 million.

這將導致年度折舊費用減少約 500 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

Sales in the paperboard segment experienced a decline of $31 million, mainly due to a 13% reduction in sales volumes due to customer destocking year-over-year sales prices improved slightly, and EBITDA for the segment decreased by $1 million to $52 million, primarily due to lower sales volumes, which more than offset the benefits of reduced purchased pulp maintenance and logistics costs.

紙板部門的銷售額下降了3100萬美元，主要是由於客戶去庫存導致銷量減少13%，銷售價格同比略有改善，該部門的EBITDA下降了100萬美元，至5200萬美元，主要是由於銷售下降，這遠遠抵消了購買紙漿維護和物流成本減少的好處。

Turning to the high-yield pulp segment on slide 7, sales declined by $24 million in comparison to prior year, mainly due to a 12% drop in external sales prices and a 5% reduction in sales volumes.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的高產紙漿部分，銷售額與上年相比下降了 2400 萬美元，主要是由於外部銷售價格下降 12% 和銷量減少 5%。

The reductions were a consequence of weaker market demand.

減少是市場需求疲軟的結果。

Segment EBITDA stood at negative $1 million in contrast to $19 million generated in the prior year.

部門 EBITDA 為負 100 萬美元，而前一年為 1,900 萬美元。

Transitioning to Slide 8, our consolidated operating loss for the year amounted to $65 million, inclusive of the $62 million non-cash asset impairment charge recorded in the fourth quarter.

從投影片 8 來看，我們今年的綜合營運虧損達 6,500 萬美元，其中包括第四季記錄的 6,200 萬美元非現金資產減損費用。

Sales price improvements in CS and paperboard were more than offset by the impact of unfavorable HPC. sales mix, lower sales prices and HPC. commodities and high-yield pulp costs remained relatively stable compared to the previous year, with deflation in certain input costs being offset by increased labor expenses due to inflation.

聚酯纖維和紙板的銷售價格上漲被不利的 HPC 的影響所抵消。銷售組合、較低的銷售價格和 HPC。與前一年相比，大宗商品和高產紙漿成本保持相對穩定，某些投入成本的通貨緊縮被通貨膨脹導致的勞動成本增加所抵銷。

Sg&a and other costs increased by $57 million, mainly due to the $62 million non-cash asset impairment charge, unfavorable foreign exchange rates, discounting and financing fees incurred incurred to support working capital enhancements as well as higher ERP project costs and professional fees.

SG&A 和其他成本增加了 5,700 萬美元，主要是由於 6,200 萬美元的非現金資產減損費用、不利的匯率、支持營運資金增強而產生的折現和融資費用以及較高的 ERP 專案成本和專業費用。

These costs were partially offset by lower variable compensation and onetime severance expenses from the previous year.

這些成本被上一年較低的變動薪酬和一次性遣散費部分抵銷。

Now let's turn to Slide 9.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 9。

Total debt ended the year at $777 million, a reduction of $76 million from the same period in 2022.

年終債務總額為 7.77 億美元，比 2022 年同期減少 7,600 萬美元。

Net secured debt reflected in our financial covenant ratio associated with the term loan ended the year at $698 million.

年末與定期貸款相關的財務契約比率反映的淨擔保債務為 6.98 億美元。

Our primary focus for 2023 was on free cash flow and debt management.

我們 2023 年的主要重點是自由現金流和債務管理。

Consequently, we executed opportunistic downtime at both paperboard and high-yield pulp facilities as well as at our Tartas HPC. facility, all key factors in supporting the impressive $93 million working capital benefit generated during the year.

因此，我們在紙板和高產紙漿設施以及 Tartas HPC 中實施了機會性停機。這些都是支持年內產生 9,300 萬美元營運資本效益的關鍵因素。

In January, management took a prudent and proactive approach and successfully amended the covenant associated with the term loan.

一月份，管理階層採取審慎、主動的態度，成功修改了與定期貸款相關的契約。

While we remain confident in our ability to navigate through the covenants, we believed it was important to ensure the Company maintained operating flexibility to fully implement our strategic initiatives while alleviating any liquidity concerns.

雖然我們對履行這些契約的能力仍然充滿信心，但我們認為，確保公司保持營運靈活性以充分實施我們的策略性舉措，同時緩解任何流動性問題非常重要。

Structurally, the amendment expands the adjusted net net leverage test from 4.5 times 5.25 times gradually stepping down until 4.5 times is reached after Q4 of 2024.

從結構來看，此修訂將調整後淨值槓桿測試範圍從4.5倍擴大到5.25倍，並逐步下調，直到2024年第四季後達到4.5倍。

Net secured leverage closed the year at 4.2 times within the original covenant test liquidity ended the year at $199 million, reflecting $76 million of cash, $118 million available under our ABL facility and $5 million for our French factoring facilities.

年終淨擔保槓桿率為原始契約測試流動性的4.2 倍，年終流動性為1.99 億美元，其中包括7,600 萬美元現金、我們的ABL 設施下的1.18 億美元以及我們的法國保理設施下的500 萬美元。

We remain committed to adhering to the original 4.5 times covenant test, and we'll focus on all levers at our disposal to maintain appropriate liquidity levels and execute the Company's exciting growth opportunities.

我們仍然致力於遵守最初的 4.5 倍契約測試，我們將專注於我們可以使用的所有槓桿，以保持適當的流動性水平並執行公司令人興奮的成長機會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to De Lyle.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉回給德萊爾。

Thank you, Marcus.

謝謝你，馬庫斯。

Please.

請。

Let's now turn our attention to slide 10 where I'll outline our key initiatives for 2024.

現在讓我們將注意力轉向幻燈片 10，我將概述我們 2024 年的主要舉措。

Our top priority for the new year is to refinance the 2026 senior notes before they go current in January 2025 to best position us to execute on this refinancing, we will continue to prioritize debt reduction.

我們新年的首要任務是在 2026 年優先票據於 2025 年 1 月流通之前對其進行再融資，以使我們能夠最好地執行此次再融資，我們將繼續優先考慮債務削減。

We are targeting a gross debt reduction of $70 million in 2024 financed through business generated free cash flows and a potential monetization of $35 million to $40 million in passive assets.

我們的目標是到 2024 年將債務總額減少 7,000 萬美元，資金來源是企業產生的自由現金流量和潛在的 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元被動資產貨幣化。

Additionally, as announced last year, we are exploring the potential sale of our profitable paperboard and high-yield pulp businesses to further reduce the debt before the refinancing.

此外，正如去年宣布的那樣，我們正在探索出售盈利的紙板和高產紙漿業務的可能性，以進一步減少再融資前的債務。

The sales process being is being managed by Houlihan Lokey, and it remains on schedule we received expressions of interest from both strategic parties and financial sponsors, and we'll provide further updates on this project as it develops.

銷售流程由 Houlihan Lokey 管理，一切仍按計劃進行，我們收到了來自策略方和財務贊助商的意向書，我們將在該專案開發過程中提供有關該專案的進一步更新。

We are working hard to implement our asset optimization strategies to address our HPC. commodity exposure.

我們正在努力實施資產優化策略來解決 HPC 問題。商品暴露。

Given the drag this exposure has on our profit margins and earnings stability.

考慮到這種風險對我們的利潤率和獲利穩定性造成的拖累。

To highlight the importance of this effort, our non fluff commodity sales had an EBITDA loss of minus $60 million in 2023.

為了強調這項努力的重要性，我們的非絨毛商品銷售在 2023 年的 EBITDA 損失為負 6,000 萬美元。

And currently, we we project a minus $48 million EBITDA loss in 2024.

目前，我們預計 2024 年 EBITDA 損失為負 4,800 萬美元。

Obviously, this is a strategic imperative to mitigate this exposure to non fluff commodities.

顯然，這是減輕非絨毛商品風險的策略當務之急。

As you know, a key element of our strategy entails transferring a significant portion of our viscose production to our Temiscaming HPC. facility, which benefits from the lowest variable cost among our HPC. lines.

如您所知，我們策略的關鍵要素是將我們黏膠生產的很大一部分轉移到我們的 Temiscaming HPC。設施，受益於我們 HPC 中可變成本最低的設施。線。

I'm pleased to announce the project is progressing according to our initial time line and I will provide updates as we move forward.

我很高興地宣布該專案正在按照我們最初的時間表進行，我將在進展過程中提供最新資訊。

Our final and perhaps most compelling initiatives is to continue realizing the exceptional opportunities within our biomaterials business.

我們最後的、也許也是最引人注目的舉措是繼續實現我們的生物材料業務中的特殊機會。

Our Tartas bioethanol plant is currently going through testing.

我們的 Tartas 生物乙醇工廠目前正在進行測試。

And if all goes well, we expect to begin bioethanol production in March was positive is expected to generate $4 million in EBITDA this year as we ramp up production and then $8 million to $10 million in 2025.

如果一切順利，我們預計將於 3 月開始生物乙醇生產，隨著產量的增加，預計今年將產生 400 萬美元的 EBITDA，然後在 2025 年產生 800 萬至 1000 萬美元。

And thereafter when we achieve steady-state production, this project is the first of several biomaterial projects that we plan to launch over the next couple of years.

此後，當我們實現穩態生產時，該項目是我們計劃在未來幾年推出的幾個生物材料項目中的第一個。

As highlighted during our Investor Day, upcoming projects in the pipeline include a bio ethanol plant at our Fernandina facility.

正如我們在投資者日期間所強調的那樣，即將推出的項目包括我們費爾南迪納工廠的生物乙醇工廠。

The AGE. project at our Jessup facility, which is the production of green energy for sale to Georgia Power, a prebiotics additive plant to also be located at our Jessup facility in crude tall oil projects in France and in the US.

年齡。我們的傑賽普工廠的項目，該項目生產綠色能源，出售給喬治亞電力公司，這是一家益生元添加劑工廠，也位於我們法國和美國的粗妥爾油項目的傑賽普工廠。

As previously disclosed, these projects will primarily be funded by low-cost green project capital and are expected to generate significant margin expansion due to co-product economics economies of scale.

如同先前所揭露的，這些項目將主要由低成本綠色項目資本提供資金，並且由於副產品經濟規模經濟，預計將產生顯著的利潤成長。

Last night, we announced the MOU with First Solar Energy to explore e-fuels, specifically SaaS from renewable resources, including biogenic CO2 at our Tartas plant staff or sustainable aviation fuel would be used by the global airline industry as a drop-in sustainable replacement for current jet fuel, fully working with First Solar Energy to explore the feasibility of capturing the biogenic CO2 for reduced at the Tartas plant to produce the SAF in combination with green hydrogen.

昨晚，我們宣布與First Solar Energy 簽署諒解備忘錄，探索電子燃料，特別是來自可再生資源的SaaS，包括我們Tartas 工廠員工的生物二氧化碳或全球航空業將使用的可持續航空燃料作為直接可持續替代產品對於目前的噴射燃料，與第一太陽能公司充分合作，探索捕獲生物二氧化碳並在塔塔斯工廠還原以與綠色氫結合生產SAF的可行性。

While we are still in the early stages of evaluating this opportunity, the potential impact to rhyme is substantial.

雖然我們仍處於評估這一機會的早期階段，但它對 Rhyme 的潛在影響是巨大的。

We look forward to keeping you updated as this project progresses.

隨著該專案的進展，我們期待為您提供最新資訊。

Let's move to slide 11, where I'll present our EBITDA and free cash flow projections for 2024, we anticipate 2020 for enterprise EBITDA to range between $180 million and $200 million for the year.

讓我們轉到投影片 11，我將在其中介紹 2024 年的 EBITDA 和自由現金流預測，我們預計 2020 年企業 EBITDA 將在 1.8 億美元到 2 億美元之間。

Cash interest expense is expected to be in the [$85 million] range, which is inclusive of $14 million attributed to the timing of interest payments.

現金利息支出預計在[8,500萬美元]範圍內，其中包括因利息支付時間而產生的1,400萬美元。

On a normalized basis, the estimated annual interest France would be around $70 million maintenance expenses is set at $85 million figure.

在正常化的基礎上，法國預計年利息約 7,000 萬美元，維護費用定為 8,500 萬美元。

We consider sufficient this year to maintain the reliability of our assets.

我們認為今年足以維持我們資產的可靠性。

The projected $50 million benefit from working capital and an additional $10 million benefit from tax receivables to be realized during the year with some offsets related to deferred energy payments and other accrued liabilities.

預計年內將實現 5,000 萬美元的營運資金收益和 1,000 萬美元的應收稅款收益，其中包括與遞延能源付款和其他應計負債相關的一些抵銷。

We expect adjusted free cash flow to range between $20 million to $40 million for the year, which will be used to reduce debt and invest in strategic capital projects.

我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流將在 2,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元之間，這將用於減少債務和投資戰略資本項目。

Currently, we forecast such strategic CapEx spending of around $10 million in 2024, mainly to finance the ERP project and pursue high return cost reduction projects at the plants.

目前，我們預計 2024 年此類策略資本支出約為 1,000 萬美元，主要用於為 ERP 專案提供資金並在工廠推行高回報成本降低專案。

This guidance differs from the $225 million EBITDA estimate that I presented during the Investor Day.

該指導意見與我在投資者日期間提出的 2.25 億美元 EBITDA 估計不同。

I believe it's important to emphasize the factors driving this variance.

我認為強調造成這種差異的因素很重要。

Since the Investor Day guidance, we realized a $14 million decrease in paperboard EBITDA versus expectations due to unforeseen levels of destocking towards the end of the year.

自投資者日指導發布以來，由於年底前不可預見的去庫存量，我們發現紙板 EBITDA 比預期減少了 1,400 萬美元。

High-yield pulp experienced rapid price declines post Investor Day as pulp markets encountered weak demand, resulting in a $3 million impact versus expectations.

由於紙漿市場需求疲軟，高收益紙漿的價格在投資者日後經歷了快速下跌，導致比預期損失 300 萬美元。

We also now expect destocking at a couple of large acetate customers, which will impact EBITDA by $23 million in 2024.

我們現在也預計幾個大型醋酸酯客戶的庫存將減少，這將影響 2024 年 EBITDA 2300 萬美元。

Additionally, corporate charges were primarily affected by higher discounting and financing fees incurred to support working capital enhancements due in part to higher interest rates totaling approximately $5 million on slide 12, I delve deeper into the expected performance of each of our businesses for 2024, and we expect to achieve EBITDA in the range of $180 million to $190 million for our HPC. segment.

此外，企業費用主要受到為支持營運資金增強而產生的更高的折現和融資費用的影響，部分原因是幻燈片12 上總計約500 萬美元的更高利率，我更深入地研究了我們每項業務2024 年的預期業績，以及我們預期 HPC 的 EBITDA 將達到 1.8 億至 1.9 億美元。部分。

On average cellulose specialty prices are expected to increase low single digit percentages compared to 2023.

平均而言，與 2023 年相比，特種纖維素價格預計將出現較低的個位數百分比成長。

Specialty sales prices are expected to remain flat in 2024, with increased volumes for market share gain that accrue to us from a competitor's plant closure offset principally by lower shipments due to the stocking to select acetate customers.

預計 2024 年特種產品銷售價格將保持平穩，競爭對手工廠關閉帶來的市場份額增加，主要被部分醋酸酯客戶備貨導致的出貨量下降所抵消。

Demand for OEM cellulose specialties is anticipated to be mixed with improved volumes in construction users, albeit at lower than historical historical levels and relatively stable acetate market.

儘管低於歷史水平且醋酸酯市場相對穩定，但預計對 OEM 纖維素特種產品的需求將與建築用戶銷售的增加混合在一起。

However, as noted, we expect acetate will undergo some level of destocking.

然而，如前所述，我們預期醋酸鹽將進行一定程度的去庫存。

We also anticipate strong demand in the other CS grades.

我們也預期其他 CS 等級的需求強勁。

Additionally, we expect resilient market demand for commodity products, fluff and viscose prices expected to improve from Q4 2023.

此外，我們預計大宗商品的市場需求將充滿彈性，絨毛和黏膠價格預計將從 2023 年第四季開始有所改善。

Moreover, we foresee modest tailwinds from eased raw material and logistics input costs in 2024 as part of our growth strategy, we are actively pursuing strategic investments in our biomaterials business to capitalize on the increasing demand for sustainable products.

此外，作為我們成長策略的一部分，我們預計2024 年原材料和物流投入成本的緩解將帶來適度的推動力，我們正在積極尋求對生物材料業務的策略性投資，以利用對永續產品不斷增長的需求。

The Taurus bioethanol plant is set to begin commercial production in the first quarter of this year with an expected EBITDA contribution of $4 million in 2024, which is expected to reach $8 million to $10 million upon full production expected in 2025.

Taurus 生物乙醇工廠將於今年第一季開始商業生產，預計 2024 年 EBITDA 貢獻為 400 萬美元，預計 2025 年全面投產後將達到 800 萬至 1,000 萬美元。

Regarding paperboard, we expect to achieve EBITDA in the range of $50 million to $60 million in 2024.

對於紙板，我們預計 2024 年將實現 EBITDA 在 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元之間。

Prices are expected to decrease slightly as compared to 2023 Q4 levels, while sales volumes are expected to improve as destocking eases and production scales up to meet the improved demand, raw material prices are expected to see a slight uptick as pulp markets rebound.

預計價格將較 2023 年第四季小幅下降，而隨著去庫存的緩解和擴大生產規模以滿足需求的改善，銷量預計將有所改善，隨著紙漿市場的反彈，原材料價格預計將小幅上漲。

We expect to achieve EBITDA in the range of $5 million to $10 million in 2024 for our high-yield pulp business high-yield pulp prices are expected to increase in the first quarter as we realize higher index pricing observed in the later part of 2023 Q4.

我們預計到2024 年，我們的高產紙漿業務將實現EBITDA 在500 萬至1000 萬美元之間。價格將上漲。

However, we are beginning to see pricing pressure related to the Chinese pulp markets, thus expect pricing pressure in late Q2 and possibly Q3.

然而，我們開始看到與中國紙漿市場相關的定價壓力，因此預計第二季末甚至第三季可能會面臨定價壓力。

We are diversifying our portfolio globally to mitigate this exposure.

我們正在全球範圍內實現投資組合多元化，以減輕這種風險。

Additionally, sales volumes are projected to improve in Q1 as production ramps up to meet improved customer demand.

此外，隨著產量的增加以滿足不斷增長的客戶需求，第一季的銷售量預計將有所改善。

For 2024, we expect corporate costs in the range of $55 million to $60 million flat to up slightly versus 2023 as we are in the final year of our multiyear ERP implementation.

對於 2024 年，我們預計企業成本將在 5,500 萬美元至 6,000 萬美元之間，與 2023 年相比略有上升，因為我們正處於多年 ERP 實施的最後一年。

As ERP project concludes, we anticipate annual cost reductions of $3 million to $5 million starting in 2025.

隨著 ERP 計畫的結束，我們預計從 2025 年開始，每年成本將減少 300 萬至 500 萬美元。

It's important to note that these costs may vary due to factors like currency fluctuations, environmental charges and other noncash Francis, we illustrate the trajectory of our EBITDA margin growth and net leverage decline.

值得注意的是，這些成本可能會因貨幣波動、環境費用和其他非現金弗朗西斯等因素而有所不同，我們說明了 EBITDA 利潤率成長和淨槓桿率下降的軌跡。

On page 13.

在第 13 頁。

In 2024, we anticipate our margins to be in the 10% to 11% range, reflecting a weighted average of the strong margins in our cellulose specialty and paperboard segments, counterbalanced by low positive high-yield margins and the anticipated negative margins in our non fluff commodity sales forecast for net secured leverage at the end of the year stands at 3.3 times covenant EBITDA.

到2024 年，我們預計我們的利潤率將在10% 至11% 範圍內，反映了我們的纖維素特種和紙板細分市場強勁利潤率的加權平均數，並被低正高收益利潤率和非營利領域預期的負利潤率所抵銷。

Our commitment remains resolute in achieving our target net debt leverage ratio of 2.5 times by 2027.

我們仍然堅定地承諾在 2027 年實現淨債務槓桿率 2.5 倍的目標。

With that, operator, please open the call to questions here.

那麼，接線員，請在此處開啟提問電話。

If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.

如果您想提問，請按電話鍵盤上的星號一。

A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue, you may press star two.

確認音將表示您的線路已在問題佇列中，您可以按星號二。

If you would like to remove your question from the queue For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.

如果您想從佇列中刪除您的問題 對於使用揚聲器裝置的參與者，可能需要在按星號鍵之前拿起聽筒。

Our first question is from Daniel Harriman with Sidoti & Company.

我們的第一個問題來自 Sidoti & Company 的 Daniel Harriman。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早安。

I just wanted to talk about kind of the transition from 2023 to 2024.

我只是想談談從 2023 年到 2024 年的過渡。

And obviously, 23 was a tough year and the fourth quarter was certainly weaker than than than what you expected.

顯然，23 年是艱難的一年，第四季的表現肯定弱於您的預期。

Would you mind providing just more color to us on why you're confident that 2024 will be better, particularly in the first half of the year such that you can kind of prove and show some earnings power within that within the core business to potentially refinance by the end of the year?

您是否介意向我們提供更多信息，說明為什麼您有信心 2024 年會更好，尤其是上半年，以便您可以證明並展示核心業務中的一些盈利能力，以進行潛在的再融資到今年年底？

And then what do you see right now is the biggest risks, two are not meeting your guidance for the year?

那麼您現在認為最大的風險是什麼，有兩個風險沒有達到您今年的指導？

Hey, good morning, Daniel.

嘿，早上好，丹尼爾。

This is Lyle.

這是萊爾。

Two things to answer your question with respect to the transition from 23 to 24.

關於從 23 歲到 24 歲的過渡，有兩件事可以回答你的問題。

And the big or the biggest driver is is around our core business, our CS business and the expectation is that the CSO business is going to improve roughly $30 million to $35 million relative to last year.

最大的驅動力是我們的核心業務，即我們的 CS 業務，預計 CSO 業務將比去年增加約 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元。

And what's really driving that is a couple of things that gives us confidence that we'll see this improvement.

真正推動這一趨勢的是有幾件事讓我們相信我們會看到這種改進。

One is some of the gains that we saw in market share relative to the fully closure.

一是我們看到相對於完全關閉而言，市場佔有率有所增加。

And we expect in total of total gain of market share around 50,000 tonnes.

我們預計市佔率總計將增加 5 萬噸左右。

And the value of north of the $35 million that we had guided to is, let's say, something north of $40 million-plus of value over the over the period.

可以說，我們指導的 3500 萬美元以上的價值在這段時間內超過了 4000 萬美元以上。

We would also expect to see some improvement, as noted in the in the call that in ethers, we expect that destocking is largely it runs its course.

我們也預計會看到一些改善，正如在電話會議中指出的那樣，在以太坊中，我們預計去庫存基本上會順利進行。

But that demand continues to be muted because of the construction market in the high interest rate market.

但由於高利率市場的建築市場，這種需求持續低迷。

There may be some risk to that number, but we do think that we will see improvement because we do think destocking has has largely concluded.

這個數字可能存在一些風險，但我們確實認為我們會看到改善，因為我們確實認為去庫存基本上已經結束。

There noted that there is some destocking going on at acetate.

有人指出，醋酸鹽正在減少庫存。

I would say that this is a onetime yet.

我想說，這還是一次性的。

I don't think that is going to be beyond the impact is noted, and this is driven by, you know, the congestion that we saw in the supply chains in 22 and 23 and the uncertainties on Express.com or held by our Asian customers, given the long supply chain that that was in place.

我認為這不會超出所注意到的影響，這是由我們在 22 和 23 年看到的供應鏈擁堵以及 Express.com 或我們的亞洲公司所持有的不確定性所驅動的。有的長供應鏈，客戶。

And I would I would think that given that on the more of these customers got comfortable as as the supply chain demonstrated that things were things that normalize.

我認為，考慮到越來越多的客戶感到舒服，因為供應鏈表明事情正在正常化。

So that at the acetate de-stocking roughly cost us $23 million on relative to our expectations and to come and do what we were expecting, it should should be a pretty pretty close to the number for the year on high yield, if you were to ask about, you know, we're some risk.

因此，相對於我們的預期，醋酸鹽去庫存大約花費了 2300 萬美元，並且按照我們的預期進行，它應該非常接近今年高收益的數字，如果你詢問一下，你知道，我們有一些風險。

It would likely be in the high yield space.

它可能屬於高收益領域。

There is some activity going on in China right now that some of some concern.

中國目前正在發生一些令人擔憂的活動。

And there's quite a bit of unused underutilized capacity of new paperboard, some plants in that that have are fully integrated back to their pulping operations.

還有相當多未充分利用的新紙板產能，其中一些工廠已完全整合回其製漿業務。

These facilities to generate any kind of cash are running their pulping operations and selling that pulp at a substantial discount to the imported material that we would that we're bringing in.

這些產生任何現金的設施正在運營其製漿業務，並以比我們希望引進的進口材料大幅折扣的價格出售紙漿。

And so there are some risks to come to the pulp pulp forecast, but we're doing all we can to mitigate that by moving the product into other regions that are less impacted by that dynamic paperboard.

因此，紙漿預測存在一些風險，但我們正在盡一切努力透過將產品轉移到受動態紙板影響較小的其他地區來減輕風險。

We believe the destocking has ended.

我們認為去庫存已經結束。

We got some higher confidence that the numbers that we're projecting will be realized with our with our customers.

我們更有信心與我們的客戶一起實現我們所預測的數字。

And then finally, the corporate charges I would suggest to them again are going to be relatively flat and that's certainly that's an area that we have a tight control on So I hope that answers your question.

最後，我再次向他們建議的企業收費將相對平坦，這當然是我們嚴格控制的領域，所以我希望這能回答您的問題。

Yes, thanks so much De Lyle.

是的，非常感謝德萊爾。

I'll get back in the queue.

我會回到隊列中。

Our next question is from Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Matthew McKellar。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Firstly, could you maybe give a little bit of color on when you might expect destocking by your acetate customers to fade and confirm if the strong finish to 24 for the CS business you described is based on acetate markets improving.

首先，您能否透露一下您預計醋酸鹽客戶去庫存何時會消退的情況，並確認您所描述的 CS 業務 24 日的強勁表現是否是基於醋酸鹽市場的改善。

So first off.

所以首先。

Good morning, Matthew.

早上好，馬修。

I know it's early for you the with respect to, you know, sequentially looking into a 24 for the next couple of quarters with respect to the de-stocking for acetate sloshing, they play out in Q1 and Q2.

我知道對於您來說，就醋酸鹽晃動的去庫存而言，順序研究未來幾個季度的 24 還為時過早，它們將在第一季度和第二季度發揮作用。

So let's say the first half and the market should get stronger as we as the year progresses.

因此，假設上半年市場應該會隨著今年的進展而變得更加強勁。

But the largest impact should be should be felt in the first half.

但最大的影響應該是在上半年感受到的。

With respect to go sequentially holiday, our RCS businesses to participate expected term will essentially be in line with what we saw in the fourth quarter for the first quarter.

就連續假期而言，我們的RCS業務參與預期期限將與我們在第四季度看到的第一季基本一致。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks very much for that color.

非常感謝那種顏色。

I think also for the HPC business, you mentioned you expect raw material inputs and logistics costs to be lower in 24.

我認為對於 HPC 業務，您提到您預計 24 年內原材料投入和物流成本會更低。

Can you maybe just provide a little bit more color on what you're expecting across different input costs and the magnitude of the cost relief you're expecting?

您能否就不同投入成本的預期以及您預期的成本減輕幅度提供更多資訊？

A lot of puts and takes with respect to that as you expect.

正如您所期望的那樣，有很多關於這一點的看法。

I mean, labor costs, of course, are up and up significantly, particularly here in North America, but that's been offset by lower chemical costs, wood costs, logistics costs, and I would say, net on net, we're expecting a lower manufacturing slash on logistics costs to the tune of roughly $7 million.

我的意思是，勞動成本當然在大幅上升，特別是在北美，但這已被較低的化學品成本、木材成本、物流成本所抵消，我想說，淨值計算，我們預計製造業物流成本削減約700 萬美元。

Right now, we're forecasting.

現在，我們正在預測。

So overall, I'm expecting cost to come down by that by about them enough amounts.

總的來說，我預計成本會下降足夠的量。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then maybe last one for me.

然後也許是我的最後一個。

Are you able to give a sense of where discussions are at with respect to developing a second bioethanol plant in Florida?

能否介紹一下在佛羅裡達州開發第二家生物乙醇工廠的討論進度？

We're going through the permitting process in the U.S. both with the community as well as with the state.

我們正在美國與社區和州政府一起辦理許可程序。

Obviously, though on top of that, we're going through, call it the final detailed engineering on that project.

顯然，除此之外，我們正在經歷，稱其為該專案的最終詳細工程。

And I expect that as everything moves along down as expected, that hopefully that will start to construction later in 24 and maybe early 25.

我預計，隨著一切按預期進行，希望在 24 月晚些時候甚至 25 年初開始施工。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

I'll hop back in the queue.

我會跳回到隊列中。

Our next question is from Dmitry Silversteyn with Water Tower Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Water Tower Research 的 Dmitry Silversteyn。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Good morning, gentlemen.

早安，先生們。

Thank you for taking my call.

感謝您接聽我的電話。

I just wanted to follow up on your memorandum of understanding with Bursa energy.

我只是想跟進你們與布爾薩能源公司的諒解備忘錄。

So the idea is that you will work jointly to see if you can produce of the SAP, the aviation fuel on substitute, how does that fit in with your bioethanol plant in touch for us in Asia or it's harder.

因此，我們的想法是，你們將共同努力，看看是否可以生產 SAP（航空燃料替代品），它如何與我們在亞洲的生物乙醇工廠相適應，否則會更困難。

And as you're looking at that on the production, at least are you going to be putting this if it does go forward, you're going to putting this in the Tartas plant or the Florida plant, are we going to have to build a new facility?

當你在生產中看到這一點時，至少你會在它繼續前進時把它放在塔塔斯工廠或佛羅裡達工廠，我們是否必須建造一個新設施？

Good morning, Dmitry.

早安，德米特里。

With respect to SAF., which is the acronym stands for sustainable AC aviation fuel.

SAF.是可持續AC航空燃料的縮寫。

And it is a direct substitute, the drop-in replacement for and the current kerosene that goes into that makes up aviation fuel today on the the deal with Verso is on is to jointly develop on the feasibility study on this opportunity.

今天與 Verso 的交易是在這次機會上共同開發可行性研究，它是構成航空燃料的直接替代品、直接替代品和現有煤油。

The size of this opportunity for us for us is can be very significant.

對我們來說，這個機會的規模可能非常重大。

And but it largely depends on how we decide to participate in this on this opportunity and really the opportunity what it is for us in Tartas, it is to capture and the biogenic CO2 that we produce right now is just emitted into the atmosphere that would be to capture that.

但這很大程度上取決於我們決定如何利用這個機會參與其中，而實際上這個機會對我們塔爾塔斯來說意味著捕獲，我們現在產生的生物二氧化碳只是排放到大氣中，捕捉到這一點。

And then with green hydrogen convert that into a peak hydrocarbon, sustainable aviation fuel hydrocarbon that will then be sold to commercial airlines, for example.

然後，用綠色氫將其轉化為峰值碳氫化合物、可持續航空燃料碳氫化合物，然後將其出售給商業航空公司等。

So we don't have to, barring any additional raw materials, anything we're actually I would just use a a byproduct of our current process to get to participate in this, it would likely include the construction of carbon capture and other to other facilities to make this happen.

所以我們不必這樣做，除非有任何額外的原材料，我們實際上的任何東西我都只會使用我們當前流程的副產品來參與其中，它可能包括碳捕獲和其他設施的建設為了實現這一目標。

But Tartas has the land of water is available locally.

但塔爾塔斯當地有水源。

And um, again, I had the demand of debt for this product is not only on something that the airline industries I think would be interested in.

嗯，再說一次，我對該產品的債務需求不僅是我認為航空業感興趣的。

But it's being required by the regulatory agencies in France and the EU for the commercial airline industry to increase over the course of the next 15 to 20 years.

但法國和歐盟的監管機構要求商業航空業在未來 15 到 20 年內持續成長。

So on top of that.

除此之外。

The last thing just like with the bioenergy or the bioethanol plant that we have in Tartas, the regulatory agencies in the state are willing to participate and help fund both the study as well as potentially the project itself going forward, sort of really that's why our initial focus is in is in the EU.

最後一件事就像我們在塔爾塔斯擁有的生物能源或生物乙醇工廠一樣，該州的監管機構願意參與並幫助資助這項研究以及潛在的項目本身，這就是我們的原因最初的重點是歐盟。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

I'm so glad to follow up on your comments around jockey for market recovery.

我很高興跟進您對騎師市場復甦的評論。

Can you kind of delve a little bit deeper into why you think the market will recover now that they've gotten through hopefully majority of the of the destocking, but the market for us, but particularly for construction, is still not particularly strong.

您能否更深入地探討為什麼您認為市場將會復甦，因為他們已經完成了大部分去庫存，但我們的市場，特別是建築市場，仍然不是特別強勁。

So what will be driving the recovery efforts other than easier comps as you get into the back end of the year and you're not comping against some inventory reductions by your customers?

那麼，當您進入年底並且您沒有應對客戶的一些庫存削減時，除了更容易的補償之外，還有什麼會推動復甦工作呢？

Yes, that's a great question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

And it's actually a question.

這實際上是一個問題。

We continue to wrestle with a little bit here at the Company about how strong ethers is going to rebound.

我們在公司繼續努力思考以太幣的反彈強度如何。

But we do because at the end of the day, you're absolutely right.

但我們這樣做是因為歸根結底，你是絕對正確的。

The demand continues to be muted and weak in the construction markets there there in Europe.

歐洲建築市場的需求持續低迷和疲軟。

The why we got some confidence in the increase in demand is because the destocking has ended right and bottomed out.

我們之所以對需求成長有一定信心，是因為去庫存已經結束並觸底。

And as a consequence of your the overlying, the underlying demand now becomes revealed.

由於你的覆蓋，潛在的需求現在被揭示出來。

And as a consequence, we expect that level of the orders we'll see in 24 will be greater than what we saw in 23.

因此，我們預計 24 年的訂單水準將高於 23 年。

But the demand continues to be somewhat muted, continues to be muted.

但需求仍有些低迷，繼續低迷。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the U.S. just to make sure I understand what's going on in China so that there's there as well underutilized capacity in Honeycomb, high-yield pulp and paperboard that produces more high-yield pulp and then therefore makes your product less appealing from the price perspective as you're importing this product into China.

然後是美國，只是為了確保我了解中國正在發生的事情，以便蜂窩、高得率紙漿和紙板的產能未得到充分利用，從而生產出更多的高得率紙漿，從而使您的產品對中國的吸引力降低當您將該產品進口到中國時，請考慮價格角度。

Do I understand that correctly?

我的理解正確嗎？

And if that's the case how long do you think that the underutilized capacity will be underutilized?

如果是這種情況，您認為未充分利用的產能將被充分利用多久？

In other words, what needs to happen in the Chinese market for that capacity to become absorbed?

換句話說，中國市場需要做什麼才能吸收這些產能？

So your import products can have a better footing in terms of competition with the local producers.

因此，您的進口產品可以在與當地生產商的競爭中擁有更好的立足點。

Dmitry, your description of what's going on is largely correct.

德米特里，你對正在發生的事情的描述基本上是正確的。

What's half what's happened is the paperboard industry in China just overbuilt, and they've got a lot of unused capacity now.

一半的情況是中國的紙板產業過度建設，現在有大量閒置產能。

And this new capacity is fully integrated back to back through a pump manufacturer.

這種新能力是透過泵浦製造商背對背完全整合的。

In other words, these paperboard plants can also make their own on pulp similar to what we do on Temiscaming and to get to to realize any kind of cash on these.

換句話說，這些紙板廠也可以像我們在 Temiscaming 上所做的那樣，用紙漿生產自己的紙漿，並利用這些紙漿來賺取任何形式的現金。

These plants are running their pipelines relatively hard and generating excess pulp, which they then ship to a regionally to upon other paperboard producers to use to make paperboard.

這些工廠的管道運作相對困難，產生多餘的紙漿，然後將其運送到區域內的其他紙板生產商，用於製造紙板。

And this the offset there is there is less less imports from other parts of the world, including potentially us coming out of Canada.

從世界其他地區進口的產品減少了，包括我們從加拿大進口的產品。

And there are there are offering these this of this locally produce pulp at substantially price discounts relative to what we're currently have been seeing in the fourth quarter and going into the first quarter for our pulp products.

相對於我們目前在第四季和第一季看到的紙漿產品，有些公司以大幅價格折扣提供本地生產的紙漿。

So that's the threat and the concern on your question about how long this is going to last.

這就是你對這種情況會持續多久的問題的威脅和擔憂。

I feel that that's a question that we're still trying to get our hands around.

我覺得這是一個我們仍在努力解決的問題。

I think that this problem is going to last through a likely to Q3 at average point, the expectation is that we'll start seeing that reduce either because this new call it this new high purity pulp capacity will get itself sold out and therefore will no longer be a problem or paperboard demand picks up and begins to satisfy that, that supply.

我認為這個問題可能會持續到第三季度，預計我們將開始看到這種情況的減少，因為這個新的高純度紙漿產能將被售空，因此不會不再是一個問題，或者紙板需求回升並開始滿足供應。

So and that's currently what our thinking is.

這就是我們目前的想法。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That's all the questions I have.

這就是我的所有問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

As a reminder, this star one on your telephone keypad.

提醒一下，您的電話鍵盤上有一顆星號。

If you would like to ask a question.

如果您想問問題。

Our next question comes from [Andy] Burns with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 [Andy] Burns 和 Stifel。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Hi, good morning, everyone, and thanks for all the detail about 2024.

大家早安，感謝您提供有關 2024 年的所有詳細資訊。

Maybe just to talk a little bit about the HPC. business.

也許只是談談 HPC。商業。

First, maybe just to clarify, the volume pickup from the Foley closure, is that all in specialties or is some of that in on the commodity side also.

首先，也許只是為了澄清一下，Foley 關閉帶來的銷售回升，是全部在特種產品方面，還是其中一些也在商品方面。

And that was all in specialties on the animals across the three different grades, but primarily the other SI.

這都是關於三個不同等級的動物的專業知識，但主要是其他 SI。

Okay.

好的。

And then just wanted to see if you could elaborate a little more on the comment you made in terms of bridging the 24 that 23 had a favorable customer contract term that's not repeated anything more you could say was that just on the volume side and or also pricing?

然後只是想看看您是否可以詳細說明您在彌合 24 方面所做的評論，23 擁有有利的客戶合約條款，沒有重複任何您可以說的只是在數量方面和/或也價錢？

And if it was more on volume, is there the opportunity to regain those volumes sometime this year?

如果銷售量更大，今年是否有機會恢復這些銷售量？

Or 2025?

還是2025年？

Yes, I know that was a little confusing, Sandy, on the big change in equal terms really was going from, let's say, a CIF. for deliberate terms to more of an FOP ship point term ROI.

是的，我知道這有點令人困惑，桑迪，同等條件下的巨大變化實際上是來自，比方說，到岸價格。對於更多 FOP 船舶點術語 ROI 的深思熟慮的術語。

And that allowed us to realize revenues sooner than than what we had historically at some of our accounts.

這使我們能夠比某些帳戶歷史上更快地實現收入。

What happened in 23 is when we negotiated that that change, we had some deferred sales volumes that were delayed at a 22 to Asia, that because of this change when it did ship in 23, and we were able to realize immediately on.

23 年發生的事情是，當我們協商這項變更時，我們有一些延遲的銷售量在 22 日延遲到亞洲，由於這一變化，當它在 23 日發貨時，我們能夠立即意識到。

And so really with the the increase in volume and sales really was capturing the deferred sales that we had coming out of 22.

因此，隨著銷量和銷售額的增加，我們確實獲得了 22 家公司的遞延銷售額。

But also because of those change in those those income terms, we didn't have a similar impact of deferrals coming out of 23 into 24 and as I come in.

但也因為這些收入方面的變化，我們並沒有受到類似的延期從 23 到 24 的影響，就像我進來的那樣。

So we won't capture that kind of deferrals that that we experienced coming out of 22.

因此，我們不會記錄 22 年來所經歷的那種延期。

The total volumes of roughly 22,000 tons.

總產量約22,000噸。

It's roughly equivalent to about $7 million in EBITDA.

約相當於 700 萬美元的 EBITDA。

And really it was a one-time impact.

這確實是一次性的影響。

Shouldn't expect any changes going forward.

不應期望未來會發生任何變化。

Right.

正確的。

But I guess importantly, it doesn't sound like it was a customer loss or?

但我想重要的是，這聽起來不像是客戶流失，還是？

No, not at all.

一點都不。

And it was just it was just a change in essentially the equal terms of the law that allowed us to to recognize revenue earlier.

只是法律的基本平等條款發生了變化，使我們能夠更早確認收入。

Great.

偉大的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you and good luck this year.

謝謝你，祝你今年好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bloomquist for closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回給布魯姆奎斯特先生致閉幕詞。

Well, thank you all once again for joining us today.

好的，再次感謝大家今天加入我們。

I do sincerely appreciate your interest and your support of Orion.

我衷心感謝您對 Orion 的關注與支持。

I do want to note that I'm incredibly proud of all the collective efforts made by our team, particularly during the difficult 23 year -- 2023 a year, and I'm also express it.

我確實想指出，我對我們團隊所做的所有集體努力感到無比自豪，特別是在艱難的 23 年——2023 年，我也表達了這一點。

I'm fully confident that we will continue to focus on enhancing our profitability and work diligently to reduce our debt and our leverage.

我完全有信心，我們將繼續專注於提高獲利能力，並努力減少債務和槓桿。

I look forward to providing further updates on all of our ongoing projects and initiatives, and we hear it, Ryan can continue to value your support and look forward to delivering to long-term success and growth of the business.

我期待著提供有關我們所有正在進行的項目和計劃的進一步更新，我們聽說，Ryan 可以繼續重視您的支持，並期待實現業務的長期成功和成長。

We are committed to our transparency and open communication.

我們致力於透明度和開放的溝通。

So if you have any questions or if you require further information, please reach out to us at any time.

因此，如果您有任何疑問或需要更多信息，請隨時與我們聯繫。

Thank you again for your participation.

再次感謝您的參與。