Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc (RYAM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the RYAM Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mickey Walsh, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Walsh, you may now begin.

早上好。歡迎參加 RYAM 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。我現在想把電話轉給你的東道主，財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Mickey Walsh 先生。謝謝您，Walsh 先生，您現在可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome again to RYAM's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Joining me on today's call are De Lyle Bloomquist, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Marcus Moeltner, our Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance. Our earnings release and presentation materials were issued last evening and are available on our new website at ryam.com. I'd like to remind you that in today's presentation, we will include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

謝謝大家，早上好。再次歡迎來到 RYAM 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議和網絡直播。與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 De Lyle Bloomquist； Marcus Moeltner，我們的首席財務官兼財務高級副總裁。我們的收益發布和演示材料於昨晚發布，可在我們的新網站 ryam.com 上獲取。我想提醒您，在今天的演講中，我們將包括根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述。

Our earnings release as well as our filings with the SEC list some of the factors which may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements we may make. They are also referenced on Slides 2 and 3 of our presentation material. Today's presentation will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures as noted on Slide 4 of our presentation. We believe non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for management and investors, but non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to GAAP measures.

我們的收益發布以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們可能做出的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素。我們的演示材料的幻燈片 2 和 3 也引用了它們。今天的演示文稿還將參考我們演示文稿幻燈片 4 中提到的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們認為非 GAAP 財務指標為管理層和投資者提供了有用的信息，但不應將非 GAAP 指標視為 GAAP 指標的替代方案。

A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included on Slides 18 through 27 of our presentation. I'd now like to turn the call over to De Lyle.

我們演示文稿的幻燈片 18 至 27 包含這些措施與其最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節。我現在想把電話轉給 De Lyle。

Thank you, Mickey, and good morning. I will start today with financial highlights for 2022 before turning the call to Marcus to provide additional details on each of our businesses. After Marcus's update, I will provide an outlook and guidance for 2023 before opening up the call for questions. Let's start by turning to Slide 5. We finished 2022 with positive momentum on revenue and EBITDA. Revenues increased $309 million or 22% from prior year to $1.7 billion, driven by strong demand and prices across all of our products, including cellulose specialties, which represent half of our revenue and a significant majority of our EBITDA.

謝謝你，米奇，早上好。今天，我將首先介紹 2022 年的財務亮點，然後再致電 Marcus 提供有關我們每項業務的更多詳細信息。在 Marcus 的更新之後，我將在開始提問之前提供 2023 年的展望和指導。讓我們從幻燈片 5 開始。我們以積極的收入和 EBITDA 勢頭結束了 2022 年。在我們所有產品的強勁需求和價格推動下，收入比上年增長 3.09 億美元或 22%，其中包括纖維素特種產品，它們占我們收入的一半和 EBITDA 的絕大部分。

Adjusted EBITDA for the year increased $50 million or 39% to $177 million as the price increases realized more than offset extraordinary cost inflation. The increases from prior year were led by our High Purity Cellulose segment, which delivered $150 million of adjusted EBITDA, up $11 million or nearly 8% from the prior year. Paperboard delivered a solid $53 million of EBITDA, up $25 million or 89%, driven by strong demand for sustainable packaging and higher prices. High-Yield Pulp contributed an additional $19 million of EBITDA as we took advantage of high prices in the fourth quarter to capture significant value for this segment.

本年度調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 5000 萬美元或 39% 至 1.77 億美元，因為價格上漲抵消了異常的成本通脹。與上一年相比的增長是由我們的高純度纖維素部門帶動的，該部門實現了 1.5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，比上一年增加了 1100 萬美元或近 8%。在對可持續包裝的強勁需求和更高價格的推動下，紙板實現了 5300 萬美元的 EBITDA，增長 2500 萬美元或 89%。 High-Yield Pulp 貢獻了額外的 1900 萬美元的 EBITDA，因為我們利用第四季度的高價格為該部門獲取了重要價值。

Corporate expenses improved $5 million from last year to $45 million for the full year, driven by a change in the valuation of the GreenFirst shares and favorable currency impact, which were partially offset by higher variable compensation. Now I'd like to ask Marcus to take us through the financial details for 2022 before I provide an outlook for 2023.

受 GreenFirst 股票估值變化和有利的貨幣影響的推動，全年公司支出比去年增加 500 萬美元至 4500 萬美元，但部分被較高的可變薪酬所抵消。現在我想請 Marcus 在我提供 2023 年展望之前向我們介紹 2022 年的財務細節。

Thank you De Lyle. Starting with the High Purity Cellulose segment on Slide 6. Sales for the year increased $245 million or 22% to $1.3 billion, driven by 19% increase in sales prices for both CS and non-CS products. Sales volumes increased 4% to 918,000 metric tons, driven by improved reliability and logistics. As expected, sales volumes in the fourth quarter of 2022 were 11% higher compared to the same period in 2021, driven by a greater mix of commodity products, which led to a 5% lower average selling price in the current quarter as compared to the third quarter of 2022.

謝謝德萊爾。從幻燈片 6 的高純度纖維素部分開始。由於 CS 和非 CS 產品的銷售價格上漲 19%，全年銷售額增長 2.45 億美元或 22% 至 13 億美元。在可靠性和物流改善的推動下，銷量增長 4% 至 918,000 公噸。正如預期的那樣，2022 年第四季度的銷量與 2021 年同期相比增長了 11%，這主要是由於大宗商品組合的增加，導致本季度的平均售價比上一季度低 5% 2022 年第三季度。

Net sales for the year included $115 million of biomaterial sales, primarily from biomass energy and lignin. Overall, EBITDA for the segment improved $11 million to $150 million, driven by higher prices and sales volumes, partially offset by the impact of significant cost inflation. Turning to Slide 7.

當年的淨銷售額包括 1.15 億美元的生物材料銷售額，主要來自生物質能源和木質素。總體而言，該部門的 EBITDA 增加了 1100 萬美元至 1.5 億美元，這主要是由於價格和銷量的增加，部分被顯著的成本膨脹的影響所抵消。轉到幻燈片 7。

Paperboard segment sales grew $42 million, driven by a 27% increase in sales prices, partially offset by a 6% decline in sales volumes. EBITDA for this segment grew 89% or $25 million to $53 million as higher sales prices more than offset increased costs for purchased pulp, chemicals, logistics and the impact of lower sales volumes. The slight decline in sales price in the fourth quarter from the third quarter was driven by a weaker sales mix.

紙板部門的銷售額增長了 4200 萬美元，這是由於銷售價格上漲了 27%，部分被銷量下降 6% 所抵消。該部門的 EBITDA 增長了 89% 或 2500 萬美元，達到 5300 萬美元，這是因為更高的銷售價格抵消了購買紙漿、化學品、物流的成本增加以及銷量下降的影響。第四季度銷售價格較第三季度略有下降，這是由於銷售組合疲軟所致。

Turning to the High-Yield Pulp segment on Slide 8. Sales increased by $24 million from prior year, driven by a 25% increase in sales prices, partially offset by a 3% decline in sales volumes. Sales volumes for the year were impacted by logistics and timing. However, as sales prices rose in the fourth quarter amidst strong demand, we were able to increase volumes to deliver a strong quarter to finish the year. Overall, EBITDA for the segment improved $9 million to $19 million for the year, including $13 million in the fourth quarter.

轉到幻燈片 8 中的高得率紙漿部分。銷售額比上一年增加了 2400 萬美元，這是由於銷售價格上漲 25%，部分被銷量下降 3% 所抵消。當年的銷量受到物流和時間安排的影響。然而，隨著第四季度銷售價格在強勁需求的推動下上漲，我們得以增加銷量，以強勁的季度收官。總體而言，該部門全年的 EBITDA 增加了 900 萬美元至 1900 萬美元，其中第四季度為 1300 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 9. On a consolidated basis, 2022 operating income improved $36 million from 2021 to $26 million. Sales price improvements across each segment and volume improvements in HPC, driven by strong demand for CS more than offset $258 million of higher costs driven by persistent inflation throughout the year. SG&A and other expenses increased $12 million, primarily driven by higher severance and variable stock compensation, partially offset by favorable FX rates. Turning to Slide 10. Net debt declined $41 million in the quarter to $707 million as we continue to repay debt.

轉到幻燈片 9。在綜合基礎上，2022 年營業收入從 2021 年增加 3600 萬美元至 2600 萬美元。在對 CS 的強勁需求的推動下，每個細分市場的銷售價格提高和 HPC 銷量的提高抵消了全年持續通貨膨脹導致的 2.58 億美元成本增加。 SG&A 和其他費用增加了 1200 萬美元，這主要是由於更高的遣散費和可變股票補償，部分被有利的匯率所抵消。轉到幻燈片 10。隨著我們繼續償還債務，本季度淨債務減少 4100 萬美元至 7.07 億美元。

The company reduced gross debt by $73 million in 2022, while still preserving solid liquidity. Liquidity ended the year at $301 million, including $152 million of cash. In addition to debt repayments, capital allocation in 2022 focused on increased maintenance CapEx to improve reliability after investments were reduced through the pandemic years. We also invested $34 million on strategic capital, primarily focused on high-return projects, which will provide immediate benefits to the business. Net debt-to-EBITDA ended the year at 4x, an improvement of nearly 1.5x from 2021. With lower debt and improving credit metrics, we continue to monitor capital markets and are prepared to opportunistically refinance our 5.5% senior unsecured notes, which mature in June of 2024. With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to De Lyle.

該公司在 2022 年將總債務減少了 7300 萬美元，同時仍保持穩健的流動性。年末流動資金為 3.01 億美元，其中包括 1.52 億美元現金。除了償還債務外，2022 年的資本配置還側重於增加維護資本支出，以在大流行期間減少投資後提高可靠性。我們還投資了 3400 萬美元用於戰略資本，主要關注高回報項目，這些項目將為企業帶來立竿見影的收益。截至年底，淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 4 倍，比 2021 年提高了近 1.5 倍。隨著債務的減少和信用指標的改善，我們將繼續監控資本市場，並準備適時為我們的 5.5% 高級無抵押票據進行再融資，這些票據到期2024 年 6 月。有了這個，我想把電話轉回給 De Lyle。

Thank you, Marcus. Turning to Slide 11. Our top priority for 2023 is to opportunistically refinance our senior notes, which mature in June 2024. As Marcus noted, our leverage declined to 4x at the end of 2022, and we expect it to further decline to 3.5x while the end of the first quarter. This will position us well to refinance our debt at more attractive terms than we saw earlier this year. Building on the momentum experienced in 2022, we will continue growing our EBITDA in 2023 through 2 key areas. First, we have started to realize the benefits from our investments to improve reliability, including increased sales and lower unit fixed cost.

謝謝你，馬庫斯。轉到幻燈片 11。我們 2023 年的首要任務是機會主義地為 2024 年 6 月到期的高級票據再融資。正如馬庫斯指出的那樣，我們的槓桿率在 2022 年底降至 4 倍，我們預計它會進一步下降至 3.5 倍，同時第一季度結束。這將使我們能夠以比我們今年早些時候看到的更具吸引力的條件為我們的債務再融資。基於 2022 年的勢頭，我們將在 2023 年通過兩個關鍵領域繼續增加我們的 EBITDA。首先，我們已經開始意識到提高可靠性的投資帶來的好處，包括增加銷售額和降低單位固定成本。

Currently, we are experiencing some pockets of softness in demand and as the market leader, we are matching our production to meet market demand. While this may temporarily impact sales volumes, the improvement in reliability will allow us to better control our cost. Second, we are capturing a higher value for our products. As a result of our negotiations, our 2023 cellulose specialties prices are expected to increase by a high single-digit percentage versus 2022 levels, inclusive of the cost surcharge. We also continue to capture value for our fluff and paperboard businesses as demand for sustainable solutions in these markets remain high.

目前，我們正在經歷一些需求疲軟的時期，作為市場領導者，我們正在調整我們的生產以滿足市場需求。雖然這可能會暫時影響銷量，但可靠性的提高將使我們能夠更好地控製成本。其次，我們正在為我們的產品獲取更高的價值。作為我們談判的結果，我們的 2023 年纖維素特種價格預計將比 2022 年的水平高個位數增長，包括成本附加費。我們還繼續為我們的絨毛和紙板業務獲取價值，因為這些市場對可持續解決方案的需求仍然很高。

The new capacity that came into the viscose market in 2021 and 2022, impacted viscose pricing modestly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but given our minimal exposure to this market, we have not experienced a significant impact. The improved EBITDA for 2023 will convert to significantly improved free cash flow, which the forecast will be between $30 million and $60 million. Capital allocation of this free cash flow will be prioritized towards debt reduction and investments in high-return strategic capital projects, which I will discuss in detail shortly. Our free cash flow guidance assumes a $45 million benefit from working cash -- capital in 2023, which we intend to capture by achieving specific targets for inventory, receivables and payables.

2021 年和 2022 年進入粘膠市場的新產能在 2022 年第四季度對粘膠定價產生了溫和影響，但鑑於我們對該市場的敞口很小，我們沒有受到重大影響。 2023 年改善後的 EBITDA 將轉化為顯著改善的自由現金流，預計將在 3000 萬至 6000 萬美元之間。這種自由現金流的資本配置將優先用於減少債務和投資於高回報的戰略資本項目，我將在稍後詳細討論。我們的自由現金流指導假設 2023 年營運現金 - 資本將帶來 4500 萬美元的收益，我們打算通過實現庫存、應收賬款和應付賬款的具體目標來實現這一目標。

We also assume 2023 total CapEx to be in the range of $140 million to $145 million. This includes $15 million to $20 million of catch-up maintenance capital, which was referred during the pandemic, and $30 million to $35 million of discretionary strategic capital net of financing. On Slide 12, we graphically depict how our $200 million to $215 million of adjusted EBITDA guidance converts to free cash flow and supports our capital allocation decisions to either repay debt and/or invest in attractive strategic projects. Our capital allocation decisions will be based on available cash, debt repayment commitments and specific project returns. On Page 13, we summarize our key financial objectives and criteria for strategic projects.

我們還假設 2023 年的總資本支出在 1.4 億美元至 1.45 億美元之間。這包括在大流行期間提交的 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的追趕維護資本，以及扣除融資後的 3000 萬至 3500 萬美元的可自由支配的戰略資本。在幻燈片 12 上，我們以圖形方式描述了 2 億美元至 2.15 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 指導如何轉化為自由現金流，並支持我們的資本分配決策以償還債務和/或投資於有吸引力的戰略項目。我們的資本分配決定將基於可用現金、債務償還承諾和具體項目回報。在第 13 頁，我們總結了戰略項目的主要財務目標和標準。

Our long-term net leverage target remains at 2.5x EBITDA, which we plan to attain by growing EBITDA and repaying debt. We also expect to allocate capital into attractive and high-return strategic projects. We have 3 main criteria that we use to vet strategic projects. First, the payback period should be less than 3 years. Second, the return on equity needs to exceed 20%, though this hurdle rate may be increased depending on the risk associated with the project. To increase our strategic projects ROE, we look for low-cost financing options, including low-cost loans and grants. And three, we review each project for the impact we'd have on our sustainability commitments, including improving the safety for our employees and the impact to our planning, specifically lowering our greenhouse gas emissions.

我們的長期淨槓桿目標仍為 2.5 倍 EBITDA，我們計劃通過增加 EBITDA 和償還債務來實現這一目標。我們還期望將資金分配到有吸引力和高回報的戰略項目中。我們有 3 個主要標準用於審查戰略項目。首先，投資回收期應小於 3 年。其次，股本回報率需要超過 20%，但根據與項目相關的風險，這個門檻可能會提高。為了提高我們的戰略項目的淨資產收益率，我們尋找低成本的融資方案，包括低成本貸款和贈款。第三，我們審查每個項目對我們可持續發展承諾的影響，包括提高我們員工的安全和對我們規劃的影響，特別是降低我們的溫室氣體排放。

For 2023, our strategic capital investments will be focused in 4 key areas. We have previously discussed the Tartas bioethanol project. This is an investment in a world-class fermentation plant that will be initially purposed to produce second-generation bioethanol, which will be sold to a large petrochemical company under a multiyear take-or-pay contract. This RED II certified bioethanol will be used in automobiles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and substitute for traditional ethanol produced from food sources such as corn. The total investment for this project is $39 million, with $28 million financed by low-cost green loans and $4 million of grants.

2023 年，我們的戰略資本投資將集中在 4 個關鍵領域。我們之前討論過 Tartas 生物乙醇項目。這是一項對世界級發酵廠的投資，最初將用於生產第二代生物乙醇，然後根據多年照付不議合同將其出售給一家大型石化公司。這種經過 RED II 認證的生物乙醇將用於汽車，以減少溫室氣體排放，並替代從玉米等食物來源生產的傳統乙醇。該項目的總投資為 3900 萬美元，其中 2800 萬美元來自低成本綠色貸款和 400 萬美元的贈款。

The bulk of the spending will be in 2023. The total cash investment from RYAM for this project from 2022 through 2024 is expected to be $7 million and will provide an annual EBITDA benefit of $9 million to $11 million starting in early 2024. This project has already broken ground and is expected to be completed early next year. The second large project will be debottlenecking Jesup's fluff production and finishing capabilities. $10 million of the $14 million investment was made last year, with the remainder being made in 2023. This investment will provide a $7 million annualized benefit to the company starting later this year. We're also focusing investments on production automation and other high investment return projects. This includes a number of smaller investments totaling between $6 million to $11 million that will provide very high returns on investment and expected $5 million to $7 million in annualized EBITDA.

大部分支出將在 2023 年進行。從 2022 年到 2024 年，RYAM 對該項目的總現金投資預計為 700 萬美元，從 2024 年初開始，每年的 EBITDA 收益將達到 900 萬至 1100 萬美元。該項目有已經破土動工，預計明年初完工。第二個大型項目將消除 Jesup 絨毛生產和整理能力的瓶頸。 1400 萬美元的投資中有 1000 萬美元是去年進行的，其餘的是在 2023 年進行的。這項投資將從今年晚些時候開始為公司提供 700 萬美元的年化收益。我們還將投資重點放在生產自動化和其他高投資回報項目上。這包括一些規模較小的投資，總額在 600 萬至 1100 萬美元之間，這些投資將提供非常高的投資回報，預計年化 EBITDA 為 500 萬至 700 萬美元。

Lastly, we will continue investing in our business processes and data infrastructure to increase corporate efficiencies and effectiveness. In 2022, we started the process to get all of the facilities in key processes onto a common ERP platform. Next, I will provide an outlook on each of our businesses. Turning to Page 14. As a result of our negotiations, our 2023 cellulose specialty prices are expected to increase by high single-digit percentages versus 2022. 2023 demand for our high-purity business is currently forecasted to be mixed. We are seeing strength in acetate, casings, filtration and nitrocellulose while there is softness for construction ethers, food additives and MCC and tire cord.

最後，我們將繼續投資於我們的業務流程和數據基礎架構，以提高企業效率和效力。 2022 年，我們開始將關鍵流程中的所有設施整合到一個通用的 ERP 平台上。接下來，我將對我們的每項業務進行展望。翻到第 14 頁。根據我們的談判結果，我們 2023 年的特種纖維素價格預計將比 2022 年高個位數增長。目前預計 2023 年對我們高純度業務的需求喜憂參半。我們看到醋酸纖維、腸衣、過濾材料和硝化纖維表現強勁，而建築醚、食品添加劑、MCC 和輪胎簾子佈表現疲軟。

Fluff demand remains resilient. While fluff prices have fallen off their peak levels experienced in the fourth quarter of 2022, pricing has been slower to decline than the more commoditized pulp markets. Viscose demand started the year soft, but there are signs of improvement since the end of the Chinese New Year. Our customers, which are the viscose staple fiber producers have increased their operating rates back to the 80% range, which is up from 50% at the end of 2022. Cost inflation in our high-purity segment has slowed, but our input prices are expected to remain at elevated levels for the near term.

絨毛需求保持彈性。雖然絨毛價格已從 2022 年第四季度的峰值水平回落，但價格下降速度低於商品化程度更高的紙漿市場。粘膠需求年初疲軟，但自春節結束以來出現好轉跡象。我們的客戶是粘膠短纖維生產商，他們的開工率已從 2022 年底的 50% 提高到 80%。我們高純度部門的成本上漲已經放緩，但我們的投入價格是預計短期內將保持在較高水平。

As I noted, high-purity business will realize some uplift in 2023 and future EBITDA from the investment in strategic projects. Our Biomaterials business will benefit from our strategic investments that are focused on the increasing demand for sustainable products, starting with our investment in the fermentation plant at Tartas that will initially produce RED II certified bioethanol starting in 2024. As demand for sustainable products continues to grow, we will increase our capabilities to meet this global demand. In Paperboard, prices are expected to increase from 2022 levels driven by strong demand for packaging and commercial print products.

正如我所指出的，高純度業務將在 2023 年和未來的 EBITDA 中實現戰略項目投資帶來的一些提升。我們的生物材料業務將受益於我們的戰略投資，這些投資側重於對可持續產品不斷增長的需求，首先是我們對 Tartas 發酵廠的投資，該工廠將從 2024 年開始生產經 RED II 認證的生物乙醇。隨著對可持續產品的需求持續增長，我們將提高我們的能力以滿足這一全球需求。在紙板方面，由於對包裝和商業印刷產品的強勁需求，預計價格將從 2022 年的水平上漲。

Volumes are expected to increase as a result of improved productivity and logistics, while costs are expected to improve as pulp prices decline. In High-Yield Pulp, prices are expected to decline as the global economy slows. Sales volumes are expected to improve with improved logistics and productivity, a reopening of the Chinese economy may provide a catalyst for improved pricing later this year. Corporate expenses are expected to be higher than 2022 due to expenses associated with the ERP implementation and FX benefits that are not expected to repeat in 2023. Overall, we expect to deliver $200 million to $215 million of EBITDA in 2023, an increase of 13% to 21% over prior year. On Slide 15, we highlight the key sensitivities that can impact our EBITDA guidance.

由於生產力和物流的改善，產量預計會增加，而成本預計會隨著紙漿價格下降而改善。在高得率紙漿中，隨著全球經濟放緩，價格預計會下降。隨著物流和生產力的改善，預計銷量將有所改善，中國經濟的重新開放可能會在今年晚些時候為價格上漲提供催化劑。由於與 ERP 實施和外匯收益相關的費用預計不會在 2023 年重複出現，公司費用預計將高於 2022 年。總體而言，我們預計 2023 年將實現 2 億至 2.15 億美元的 EBITDA，增長 13%比上年增長 21%。在幻燈片 15 中，我們強調了可能影響我們的 EBITDA 指南的關鍵敏感性。

EBITDA is highly leveraged to our cellulose specialty prices. However, these prices are mostly negotiated on an annual basis. In addition, we successfully negotiated pricing flexibility in our cellulose specialty contracts in the event of renewed cost inflation. Thus, we believe that pricing and cost risk in our cellulose specialty business should have little impact on the 2023 guidance. Pricing changes on non-cellulose specialty products have a smaller impact on EBITDA for the same 1% change in price. Paperboard products are sold under a mix of fixed prices and variable index pricing with approximately 2/3 fixed for the year, thus providing further stability for the 2023 guidance. We believe our diverse exposure to end markets and strong linkage to the sustainability megatrends such as paperboard for renewable packaging and fluff for the growing global middle class and aging populations, coupled with our annual contracted business helped insulate us from the impact of a possible recession.

EBITDA 高度依賴於我們的纖維素專業價格。然而，這些價格大多是按年協商的。此外，我們成功地在我們的纖維素專業合同中談判了定價靈活性，以防再次出現成本上漲。因此，我們認為我們纖維素專業業務的定價和成本風險對 2023 年的指導影響不大。對於同樣 1% 的價格變化，非纖維素特種產品的定價變化對 EBITDA 的影響較小。紙板產品以固定價格和可變指數定價混合銷售，其中約 2/3 為全年固定價格，從而為 2023 年的指導提供了進一步的穩定性。我們相信，我們對終端市場的多元化敞口和與可持續發展大趨勢的緊密聯繫，例如用於可再生包裝的紙板和麵向不斷增長的全球中產階級和老齡化人口的絨毛，再加上我們的年度合同業務幫助我們免受可能的經濟衰退的影響。

We also have opportunities to improve margins with improved productivity and sales volumes, which we would realize as we maintain our market share when demand growth resumes. Turning to Slide 16. Our outlook for 2023 reflects improved EBITDA margins to the 11% to 12% range, as we capture both the improved value for our products and drive operational efficiencies and reliability. Debt will continue to decline as we generate free cash flow and optimize our balance sheet. As a result, we expect net leverage to decline to approximately 3.5x in 2023 and keep us on track toward our goal of 2.5x over the next 3 to 5 years. And with that, operator, please open the call to questions.

我們也有機會通過提高生產力和銷量來提高利潤率，當需求增長恢復時，我們會保持我們的市場份額，我們會意識到這一點。轉到幻燈片 16。我們對 2023 年的展望反映了 EBITDA 利潤率提高到 11% 到 12% 的範圍，因為我們既獲得了產品價值的提高，又提高了運營效率和可靠性。隨著我們產生自由現金流並優化資產負債表，債務將繼續下降。因此，我們預計淨槓桿率將在 2023 年下降至約 3.5 倍，並使我們在未來 3 至 5 年內朝著 2.5 倍的目標邁進。有了這個，接線員，請打開問題電話。

We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Roger Spitz with Bank of America.

我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Roger Spitz。

So wanted to start, could you elaborate on the potential headwinds in Q1 '23? You mentioned, I think, in the prepared remarks, some pockets of softer demand and may have actually called out 1 or 2 areas, but I thought maybe you could delve into a little more. And also, what do you expect the cadence of the working capital inflow over the year, in particular, in Q1?

所以想開始，您能否詳細說明 23 年第一季度的潛在不利因素？我認為，你在準備好的發言中提到了一些需求疲軟的領域，實際上可能已經提到了 1 或 2 個領域，但我認為你可以深入研究更多。此外，您預計全年（尤其是第一季度）營運資金流入的節奏如何？

Roger, this is De Lyle. To attack your question on demand first what we're seeing -- I'll first talk a little bit about what's going on in Europe, which is really what's affecting our demand for our construction ethers and maybe a little bit of the food additives business on the MCC side. I think as everybody knows, the macroeconomic conditions in Europe aren't great, though they are -- we do expect that they will improve through the year. Because we're seeing higher interest rates in Europe, that's obviously had an impact on the construction market, and that -- therefore, it had an impact on our demand for our construction ethers.

羅傑，這是德萊爾。首先根據我們所看到的來解決您的需求問題——我將首先談談歐洲正在發生的事情，這確實影響了我們對建築醚的需求，也許還有一點食品添加劑業務在MCC這邊。我認為眾所周知，歐洲的宏觀經濟狀況並不好，但我們確實預計它們會在今年有所改善。因為我們看到歐洲利率上升，這顯然對建築市場產生了影響，因此，它對我們對建築醚的需求產生了影響。

We also saw with a couple of customers that we sell our ether-grade products to that they are correcting their working capital. They over -- may have overbought a little bit in '22. And so they're going through a correction on their working capital. Again, I think that's going to be a relatively short-term issue. And we should see, again, once we get past that correction, we should start seeing demand normalize again, probably in the second half of this year. With respect to the other areas in terms of softness, the -- can you help me on that a little bit?

我們還看到，我們向一些客戶出售我們的以太級產品，他們正在調整營運資金。他們結束了——可能在 22 年有點超買。因此，他們正在對營運資金進行調整。同樣，我認為這將是一個相對短期的問題。我們應該再次看到，一旦我們度過了修正期，我們應該會開始看到需求再次正常化，這可能是在今年下半年。關於柔軟度的其他方面，你能幫我一下嗎？

Yes. Areas of softness. We had a little bit in tire cord...

是的。柔軟的地方。我們有一點輪胎簾子線......

Yes. So tire cord, obviously, is tied to the automobile industry. And obviously, they continue to be a little afforded by the access to chips but also, I think, just because of the increase in interest rates is beginning to dampen the demand for automobiles as well. So that's something that we're a little concerned about. Otherwise, a lot of the other businesses that we are selling to seem to be holding in there at, I would call, very resilient levels of demand. The second question that we -- the second question was on working capital. I think really, your question was around how does that -- how is that going to calendarize through the year? Is that correct, Roger?

是的。因此，輪胎簾子線顯然與汽車行業息息相關。顯然，他們繼續獲得芯片的一些支持，但我認為，僅僅因為利率的上升也開始抑制對汽車的需求。所以這是我們有點擔心的事情。否則，我們正在出售的許多其他業務似乎都保持在那裡，我稱之為非常有彈性的需求水平。我們的第二個問題 - 第二個問題是關於營運資金。我想真的，你的問題是關於如何 - 這將如何在一年中進行日曆化？是這樣嗎，羅傑？

That's right, particularly the Q1 because Q1 is usually -- for most businesses is an outflow, but things are going on here. But -- so it's both particularly in Q1, but also how does the cadence go to getting that, I think, $45 million?

沒錯，尤其是第一季度，因為對於大多數企業而言，第一季度通常是資金流出，但這裡的情況正在發生。但是 - 所以它特別是在第一季度，而且節奏如何才能獲得 4500 萬美元？

Roger, it's Marcus. So as you mentioned, the $45 million that we set out as an objective, certainly, Q1 is a use of working capital for us. So as we get through Q1 and then the balance of the year, we should start to realize that. Over 50% of that target is inventory related and then it's balanced across AR and AP. So as we execute through the year, we should start to harvest that working capital and realize that benefit.

羅傑，是馬庫斯。所以正如你提到的，我們設定的 4500 萬美元作為目標，當然，第一季度是我們的營運資金的使用。因此，當我們度過第一季度和今年餘下的時間時，我們應該開始意識到這一點。該目標的 50% 以上與庫存相關，然後在 AR 和 AP 之間進行平衡。因此，當我們執行這一年時，我們應該開始收穫營運資金並實現收益。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Paul Quinn 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

Just trying to understand, it sounds like your cellulose specialty prices, you expect them to be up high single digit. Just looking at the commodity side, though, I'm trying to understand sort of your guidance, I guess, on fluff pulp, do you expect fluff pulp to stay in and viscose price weakening? Could you give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing in that market?

只是想了解一下，這聽起來像是您的纖維素專業價格，您希望它們上漲個位數。不過，就商品方面而言，我想了解您對絨毛漿的某種指導，您是否預計絨毛漿會繼續存在並且粘膠價格會走軟？你能給我們更多關於你在那個市場上看到的東西的顏色嗎？

Paul, this is De Lyle. With respect to fluff pricing, again, we're assuming that they're going to follow generally with the indices that are out there on fluff, but what we're noticing is that it's going down slower than expected. And in fact we've seen a couple of our competitors actually announced some recent price increases. So we think we may actually be troughing out here relatively soon. Viscose pricing, similar situation, just as recently as the -- a couple of days ago, there was a slight uptick in the pricing for softwood going into the viscose market.

保羅，這是德萊爾。關於絨毛定價，我們再次假設他們將普遍跟隨絨毛上的指數，但我們注意到它的下降速度比預期的要慢。事實上，我們已經看到我們的幾個競爭對手實際上宣布了最近的一些價格上漲。所以我們認為我們實際上可能很快就會在這裡低谷。粘膠定價，類似的情況，就在幾天前，進入粘膠市場的軟木價格略有上漲。

Again, what we're forecasting is per the indices, but we're seeing that because of the increase in capacity utilization in China that, again, that there may be some upside potential with respect to viscose pricing. But right now, the forecast and the guidance we've given is essentially based on the indices that have been published.

同樣，我們的預測是根據指數得出的，但我們看到，由於中國產能利用率的提高，粘膠定價可能存在一些上行潛力。但現在，我們給出的預測和指導基本上是基於已發布的指數。

Okay. And then you guys mentioned higher corporate costs in '23 here. That was $45 million in '22 or we talking to in the $50 million to $55 million range?

好的。然後你們在這裡提到了 23 年更高的公司成本。那是 22 年的 4500 萬美元，還是我們在 5000 萬到 5500 萬美元的範圍內交談？

Yes, that's correct, Paul. That's about the right range. Again, the increase in spending is tied to the ERP implementation and the fact that we don't think -- right now, we're not forecasting raising in FX benefit this year.

是的，沒錯，保羅。這大約是正確的範圍。同樣，支出的增加與 ERP 的實施以及我們不認為的事實有關——目前，我們預計今年的外匯收益不會增加。

Okay. And then just earlier this year, you attempted to rebuy the senior unsecureds and didn't conclude that deal. Can you give us a little bit more color on that process and the timing of when you expect that to try that again?

好的。然後就在今年早些時候，你試圖重新購買高級無抵押債券，但沒有完成這筆交易。你能給我們更多關於這個過程的顏色以及你期望再次嘗試的時間嗎？

Well, in January, we just see it turned out that the market conditions just weren't conducive for us. I get a deal that we felt was 1 indicative of what we consider to be a fairly strong business. So looking forward, we think actually time is on our side and that we think our financial metrics will improve with time, and so we're patient. And we want to get past at least Q1 earnings because again, we think that will confirm the guidance we just gave you. And with that, we think we'll be looking at that point to look at the markets and possibly enter at that point.

好吧，在 1 月份，我們發現市場條件對我們不利。我得到了一筆交易，我們認為這表明我們認為這是一家相當強大的企業。所以展望未來，我們認為實際上時間站在我們這邊，我們認為我們的財務指標會隨著時間的推移而改善，所以我們很有耐心。我們希望至少超過第一季度的收益，因為我們認為這將再次證實我們剛剛給你的指導。有了這個，我們認為我們會關注那個點來觀察市場並可能在那個點進入。

Okay. And then just lastly, just back on debottlenecking project, you've got adjusted to get more volume, I guess, on the fluff line. What's the volume increase do you think you're going to get through that process? And what's involved?

好的。最後，剛剛回到去瓶頸項目，你已經調整以獲得更多的體積，我猜，在絨毛線上。您認為您將通過該過程獲得多少數量增加？涉及什麼？

Yes. That's a great question. I'm not an engineer, so I can't really get into the specifics about what we did. But at the end of the day, I believe the increase is 40,000 to 50,000 tons additional capacity that we get from that investment. And it really came down to essentially putting in additional dryer cans to allow us to speed up the line while allowing it for enough drying capacity to get the right specifications on the product. So -- and then on the finishing side, when you obviously speed up the capability of the line, you've got to also increase the capability of our ability to package it appropriately for our competitors -- for our customers. And so we've put some investment also in the finishing line as well.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我不是工程師，所以我無法真正了解我們所做的細節。但歸根結底，我相信我們從這項投資中獲得了 40,000 至 50,000 噸的額外產能。這實際上歸結為基本上放入額外的干燥罐，讓我們加快生產線速度，同時允許它有足夠的干燥能力來獲得正確的產品規格。所以 - 然後在精加工方面，當你明顯加快生產線的能力時，你還必須提高我們為我們的競爭對手 - 為我們的客戶適當包裝它的能力。因此，我們也在終點線上進行了一些投資。

Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Roger Spitz with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題是 Roger Spitz 與美國銀行的後續問題。

A few others. So can you talk any more guidance on the High-Yield Pulp segment in 2023, does that reverse back to the last few years kind of level? How should we think about that?

還有幾個。那麼，您能否談談 2023 年高產紙漿領域的更多指導，這是否會回到過去幾年的水平？我們應該如何考慮？

That's a great question, Roger. It's obviously -- it's -- we're seeing pricing decline right now, but we're going to see some offset on that -- on the volumes in 2023, given the increased productivity that we're expecting after the investments we made last year. So in terms of overall EBITDA for high purity, we're expecting it -- I'm looking at some numbers. I'm seeing if I can find the actual number for you here. It's going to be about the same, as we experienced in 2022 versus 2023, even though we see lower pricing, but it should be offset by the increased productivity and the increased sales volumes later this year.

這是一個很好的問題，羅傑。很明顯——我們現在看到價格下降，但我們將看到一些抵消——在 2023 年的數量上，考慮到我們在上次投資後預期的生產力提高年。因此，就高純度的整體 EBITDA 而言，我們期待它——我正在看一些數字。我看看能不能在這裡找到你的實際號碼。這將與我們在 2022 年和 2023 年經歷的情況大致相同，儘管我們看到價格較低，但它應該被今年晚些時候生產力的提高和銷量的增加所抵消。

Got it. And just to be clear, I was asking on High-Yield Pulp and I think you were answering that, but you said high purity.

知道了。需要說明的是，我問的是高產紙漿，我想你是在回答這個問題，但你說的是高純度。

I'm sorry. I meant high purity. Yes, high purity. I'm still new.

對不起。我的意思是高純度。是的，純度高。我還是新人。

Okay. And I was asking High-Yield Pulp. How do you see High-Yield Pulp EBITDA in 2023 where you lower pricing...

好的。我問的是 High-Yield Pulp。您如何看待 2023 年高收益紙漿的 EBITDA 降低定價...

And that's what I was talking to you, High-Yield Pulp should be equivalent to what we saw in '22 right around that $15 million, $16 million level.

這就是我跟你說的，高產紙漿應該相當於我們在 22 年看到的大約 1500 萬美元、1600 萬美元的水平。

And Roger, as you're following the market, high yield, think of, if you look at it year-over-year, right, given where we are in the pricing cycle, it will probably be the reverse of last year, where it's a stronger first half, and then everybody is seeing pricing is coming off over time for that product.

羅傑，當你關注市場時，高收益，想想看，如果你逐年看，對吧，考慮到我們在定價週期中所處的位置，它可能會與去年相反，在那裡上半年表現強勁，然後每個人都看到該產品的定價隨著時間的推移而下降。

And then in the press release, you talked about the strength in acetate CS. Now is that -- are you looking at there? Or you're looking at the -- whatever it is 20%, 25% of the specialty -- I call it acetate CS the non-filter tow demand that you were pointing to?

然後在新聞稿中，您談到了醋酸 CS 的優勢。現在是——你在看那裡嗎？或者你正在看——不管它是 20%，還是 25% 的專業——我稱之為醋酸鹽 CS，你指的是非過濾器絲束需求？

So Roger, just to reiterate your question, you're saying, are we seeing strength in acetate in the tow and other applications, right? Plastics, you're saying.

所以羅傑，只是重申你的問題，你是說，我們在絲束和其他應用中看到了醋酸纖維的優勢，對嗎？你說的是塑料。

Right, which areas -- which applications in acetate CS did the press release referred to when I talked about strength in 2023 in acetate?

是的，當我談到 2023 年醋酸鹽的強度時，新聞稿提到了醋酸鹽 CS 的哪些應用？

Yes. Really, we're seeing it both in tow and plastics. Tow's being driven -- we're seeing significant growth in the heat not burn applications with -- and products that are being sold outside the United States, which require 2x the amount of tow that is used in a typical cigarette. And that's, I think, largely mitigated the decline in smoking in much of the developed world. I would say that tow applications or the use -- demand in China has been pretty darn steady. So -- and then on the plastic side, things continue to be very strong.

是的。真的，我們在拖車和塑料中都看到了它。絲束正在被驅動——我們看到加熱不燃燒應用的顯著增長——以及在美國以外銷售的產品，這些產品需要的絲束數量是普通香煙的兩倍。我認為，這在很大程度上緩解了大部分發達國家吸煙率的下降。我想說的是，拖曳應用或使用——中國的需求一直非常穩定。所以——然後在塑料方面，事情繼續非常強勁。

And then last one, and I want to talk about the 3- to 5-year target EBITDA margins going to 13% to 15%. You laid out on Slide, I guess, 13, a number of projects, and I presume that's 1 or 1 component of that. Is that the main component of that increase in the EBITDA margin? Or are there other big picture things, whether it be pricing or volumes or cost savings that you're also looking to get that EBITDA margin up to 13% to 15% in 3 to 5 years?

然後是最後一個，我想談談 3 到 5 年的目標 EBITDA 利潤率將達到 13% 到 15%。我猜你在 Slide 上佈置了 13 個項目，我認為這是其中的 1 或 1 個組成部分。這是 EBITDA 利潤率增長的主要組成部分嗎？或者還有其他大局，無論是定價、銷量還是成本節約，您是否也希望在 3 到 5 年內將 EBITDA 利潤率提高到 13% 到 15%？

I want to use all the levers, Roger. So just be the strategic projects, which, at the end of the day, is an important component of it. We see that there's significant value to be had in terms of becoming much more efficient and productive. And some of that's going to take some capital. But we also see that there's an opportunity to continue to capture additional value for our products. And I call it fair value, get the pricing up to a point that would reward us to reinvest into new capacity as demand grows. And finally, the issues around just better efficiencies on logistics and maybe even some cost deflation sometime in the near future.

我想使用所有的槓桿，羅傑。戰略項目也是如此，歸根結底，戰略項目是其中的重要組成部分。我們看到，在提高效率和生產力方面具有重要價值。其中一些將需要一些資金。但我們也看到有機會繼續為我們的產品獲取額外價值。我稱之為公允價值，將定價提高到可以獎勵我們隨著需求增長重新投資於新產能的程度。最後，圍繞物流效率提高的問題，甚至可能在不久的將來某個時候出現一些成本緊縮。

Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to De Lyle Bloomquist for closing remarks.

謝謝。至此，我們的問答環節已經結束。我將把發言權轉回 De Lyle Bloomquist 的閉幕詞。

Well, again, thank you all for your time today. I'm very proud of the accomplishments that we have made and very confident that we will continue to execute on our initiatives to improve the profitability of the business, reduce our debt and improve our leverage. And I look forward to our next update in the next few -- in the next couple of months. So if you have any questions or anything that we can help you out with, please feel free to reach out to us.

好吧，再次感謝大家今天的時間。我為我們取得的成就感到非常自豪，並且非常有信心我們將繼續執行我們的計劃，以提高企業的盈利能力，減少我們的債務並提高我們的槓桿率。我期待著我們在接下來的幾個月內——在接下來的幾個月裡進行下一次更新。因此，如果您有任何問題或我們可以幫助您解決的任何問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。

This will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。