Royal Bank of Canada (RY) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the RBC 2016 third-quarter results conference call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Dave Mun, SVP and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Mun.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Presenting this morning are: Dave McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer; Janice Fukakusa, Chief Administrative Officer and Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Hughes, Group Chief Risk Officer.

Following their comments, we will open the call for questions. The call is one hour long and will end at 9 AM. We will post management's remarks on our website shortly after the call. To give everyone a chance to participate, please limit your questions and re-queue.

Joining us for your questions are: Jennifer Tory, Group Head, Personal & Commercial Banking; Doug Guzman, Group Head, Wealth Management and Insurance; Doug McGregor, Group Head, Capital Markets and Investor & Treasury Services; Zabeen Hirji, Chief Human Resource Officer; and Bruce Ross, Group Head, Technology and Operations.

As noted on slide 2, our comments may contain forward-looking statements which involve applying assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these statements.

I'll now turn the call over to Dave.

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. RBC had a record third quarter, with net income of over CAD2.8 billion, up 17% from last year or 7%, excluding the gain from the sale of our home and auto insurance business to Aviva. Compared to the second quarter, earnings were up 13% or 3%, excluding the gain on sale. The sale of our home and auto business was part of our strategy to balance the needs of our clients, while investing in high-return businesses with lower earnings volatility, while optimizing capital for our shareholders.

The sale included a distribution agreement with Aviva which enables us to now provide an expanded offering of products and solutions to our clients. Proceeds from the sale will allow us to invest in other core businesses and initiatives, including accelerating investments in our digital strategy to enhance the client experience and lower operating costs. The gain also contributed to our strong capital position, as we finish the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 10.5%.

Returning capital to shareholders remains a top priority, and I'm pleased that this morning, we announced a CAD0.02 or 2% increase to our quarterly dividend to CAD0.83 a share. In addition, this quarter, we repurchased over CAD290 million of common shares for about 20% of the buyback program, which we announced in late May.

Our results this quarter reflect the strength and diversity of our leading client franchises and geographies that we operate in. We achieved these results particularly as the operating environment continues to present challenges for us and our clients. As you know, the wildfires of Fort McMurray were devastating for many families and the impacted communities, and RBC remains committed to helping our clients. However, I would note the overall financial impact to our third-quarter results net of reInsurance was not significant.

This past quarter, we also saw the UK's decision to leave the EU add further volatility to global markets. As equity markets rebounded from Brexit and credit spreads tightened, our market-sensitive businesses benefited. In fact, Investor & Treasury Services posted one of its strongest quarters yet, due in part to the de-risking measures that we took across our funding and liquidity portfolios in advance of the vote. We also took the opportunity to have active dialogue with many of our asset management clients to discuss the possible impacts on their businesses.

In the weeks following Brexit, we saw central banks globally adding more liquidity into the system, which in turn, helped spur a rally in credit, including high yield, corporate and investment grade. We were committed to helping our clients manage through the uncertainty and volatility, driving, for example, fixed-income trading revenue in Capital Markets to its highest level in over five years. We achieved these results while remaining focused on optimizing the business, including shifting capital from lower risk return businesses. While it's too early to tell what the long-term implications will be, we have a continued commitment to the UK market, and remain well-positioned to support our clients and grow our business in the region.

Turning to Wealth Management, as the TSX and S&P indices were both up 5% sequentially, we saw our clients' confidence improve. RBC Global Asset Management had a record July in Canada, with mutual fund net sales of CAD1 billion. This record month follows a strong calendar second quarter, with RBC capturing approximately 1/3 of industry sales. Wealth Management also continued to benefit from strong results in City National, which contributed earnings of CAD201 million year to date, or CAD338 million excluding the amortization of intangibles and integration costs.

I am very pleased with the progress so far. As you heard at our City National Investor Day in June, we are seeing benefits of referrals and collaboration across our businesses. We have a clear path for long-term growth in the US that I'm confident will deliver value to our shareholders.

Turning to Canadian Banking, we saw solid results, driven by good volume growth and expense control, offset to a degree by pressure from low interest rates and higher year-over-year credit costs due to the challenges in the Alberta economy. As the operating environment continues to weigh on results, effective cost management remains a top priority. Our cost-management capabilities form part of a business-as-usual activities, and year to date, drove positive operating leverage of 1.7%, an efficiency ratio of 43%, an all-time low.

Our bank-wide efficiency ratio has also improved as a result of our cost-management initiatives across the bank. What's more, we achieved these results while increasing our investment in technology and innovation, advancing our journey to digitize the bank and building long-lasting client relationships. And our clients will hear from us on this front over the next few quarters.

Importantly, our clients are recognizing all of this. In July, we ranked highest in customer satisfaction among Canadian five retail banks, as part of the J.D. Power survey. And recently, RBC was once again recognized by Retail Banker International, winning Best Payment Innovation and Best Use of Data Analytics for 2016. RBC focused investment and emerging payment infrastructure and leading edge data analytics has allowed us to become an industry leader and set the standard for secure mobile payment solutions. These achievements demonstrate our success in serving clients where and when they want, enhancing their overall experience and building long-lasting relationships.

Our results this quarter also highlight our disciplined risk management, which is central to driving sustainable earnings growth for RBC. Our credit quality improved quarter over quarter, mainly reflecting lower provisions in our oil and gas wholesale portfolio, which Mark will expand on later. In addition, this past quarter, we acquired a higher amount of portfolio insurance as part of our prudent risk-management practices. We recognize that the environment remains uncertain and could put upward pressure on PCL.

On housing, we continue to closely monitor the Greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. The short supply of single-family homes in both cities, coupled with strong demand fueled by household formation, including net immigration, has driven strong price depreciation. We have prudent underwriting practices in place and the necessary technology to closely monitor these markets and quickly react as situations may materialize. Regulatory bodies are also responding to the combination of rising house prices and record levels of consumer leverage. We support the Canadian federal government's recent action to form a working group to study the housing market and develop appropriate recommendations.

To wrap up, I'm very pleased with our third-quarter results, marking a record first nine months of the year. We finished the quarter with even stronger capital levels, while at the same time delivering industry-leading returns. We had strong performance across most of our client businesses, driven in part by our commitment to discipline, risk and efficiency management, while at the same time evolving our digital capabilities for our clients.

Our size and scale enables us to invest in new capabilities and deliver an exceptional client experience. And I'm confident that we will continue to deliver long-term value to our shareholders, given the strength of our diversified business model.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Janice.

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. We had record third-quarter earnings of over CAD2.8 billion, up CAD420 million or 17% from last year. As Dave mentioned, this quarter, we completed the sale of our home and auto insurance business, which resulted in an after-tax gain of CAD235 million. Excluding this gain, adjusted earnings were up 7% from last year, reflecting strong earnings in Wealth Management and Capital Markets, and higher earnings in Personal & Commercial Banking. These results were partially offset by lower core results in Insurance and in Investor & Treasury Services, as the prior year included an additional month of earnings.

Compared to last quarter, earnings were up 13%, or 3% excluding the gain on sale, reflecting higher results across most of our businesses, and lower PCL. Our performance also reflects benefits from our continued focus on managing costs in this lower-revenue growth environment to drive efficiencies and enable us to increase investments in key areas, including digital initiatives. Our Q3 results also benefited from a lower tax rate, mainly due to the earnings mix and the impact from the sale of our home and auto insurance business. Our tax rate for the first nine months of the year was approximately 21%, and we continue to anticipate that our 2016 tax rate at the enterprise level will be at the low end of our expected range of 22% to 24%.

Turning to capital on slide 7, our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 10.5%, up 20 basis points from last quarter, largely reflecting strong internal capital generation. The sale of our home and auto business also contributed 7 basis points to this increase. These factors were partially offset by the impact of a lower discount rate, increasing our pension obligation, share repurchases, and funding organic business growth, which increased risk-weighted assets.

Moving to the performance of our business segments on slide 8, Personal & Commercial Banking reported earnings of over CAD1.3 billion, up CAD41 million or 3% compared to last year. Canadian Banking had earnings of over CAD1.2 billion, up CAD45 million or 4% from last year. Results were driven by volume growth of 6% and non-interest income growth of 5% year over year, largely reflecting fee-based revenue growth across most businesses. This includes strong deposit growth of 7% and loan growth of 4%, which was driven by continued growth in residential mortgages, business loans and credit cards.

Our net interest margin of 2.63% was down 3 basis points compared to last year, reflecting the continued low interest rate environment and ongoing competitive pressures. Cost management continues to be a focus, with expense growth of only 2% year over year, and positive operating leverage of 1.4% this quarter.

Compared to the prior quarter, Canadian Banking earnings were up 3%. Seasonal factors, including additional days in the quarter, higher fee-based revenue and volume growth, were partially offset by higher costs to support business growth, and lower spreads. Our net interest margin was 2.63%, down 1 basis point from last quarter, and in line with our estimate of 1 to 2 basis points of compression per quarter in this low interest rate environment. Caribbean and US Banking had earnings of CAD38 million, down CAD4 million from last year. Sequentially, earnings were down CAD18 million, partly due to lower foreign exchange revenue.

Turning to slide 9, Wealth Management had earnings of CAD388 million, up 36% from last year and 1% from last quarter. City National continues to perform ahead of our expectations, with earnings this quarter of CAD82 million, driven by strong loan and deposit growth. Excluding the amortization of intangibles and integration costs, earnings were CAD123 million, up 14% from the prior quarter. Excluding City National, Wealth Management earnings were up 7% from last year, reflecting the benefits from our efficiency management activities and a favorable change in the fair value of our US share-based compensation plan.

Global Asset Management revenue was relatively flat from last year, reflecting stable assets under management, as capital appreciation was largely offset by net outflows, primarily outside of Canada. Following the weak RRSP season, we saw strong long-term mutual fund sales in Canada, largely offset by net redemption of funds in Europe, reflecting the ongoing market volatility in the region. Canadian Wealth Management revenue was up 4% from last year, mainly due to higher average fee-based client assets, reflecting strong net sales and capital appreciation. In fact, assets under management were up 14% from last year.

Moving to Insurance on slide 10, net income was CAD364 million, up CAD191 million from a year ago. Excluding the gain on sale from our home and auto business, adjusted net income of CAD129 million was down CAD44 million or 25%, mainly due to lower UK annuity contract earnings. The sale of our home and auto business is expected to reduce earnings by CAD10 million to CAD15 million per quarter going forward. This estimate includes earnings from the distribution agreement we have with Aviva. Results also reflect higher claims costs, mainly a CAD10 million impact related to the Fort McMurray wildfires.

I would note that RBC Insurance will have very limited exposure to the Fort McMurray wildfire or flood claims going forward. Effective July 1, the portfolio has been fully assumed by Aviva Canada by way of sale. Sequentially, adjusted net income was down CAD48 million or 27% from the prior quarter, reflecting lower investment-related gains and higher claims costs, mainly related to the Fort McMurray wildfires. In addition, the prior quarter included a tax recovery.

Turning to slide 11, Investor & Treasury Services had strong earnings of CAD157 million, down CAD10 million or 6% from last year, as the prior year included an additional month of earnings in Investor Services of CAD28 million after tax. Excluding the prior year's additional month of earnings, net income was up CAD18 million or 13%.

During the quarter, higher funding and liquidity earnings were partially offset by increased investment in technology initiatives and lower earnings from foreign exchange market execution. Sequentially, net income was up 13%, primarily due to higher funding and liquidity earnings. This was partially offset by higher regulatory costs. We have been in the process of de-risking our funding and liquidity portfolio, and our Q3 results benefited from tightening credit spreads that took place following Brexit.

Turning to slide 12, Capital Markets delivered strong results. Net income of CAD635 million was up CAD90 million or 17% from last year, driven by strong results in Global Markets businesses, lower taxes, and an increase due to foreign exchange translation. These factors were partially offset by lower results in our corporate and investment banking business, mainly reflecting decreased client activity.

Our Capital Markets result reflect more favorable markets driving strong business performance for fixed-income trading. Our fixed-income business in Europe continues to perform well, with both the business and Europe's overall results posting their strongest quarterly revenue in over five years.

Sequentially, earnings were up CAD52 million or 9%, driven by higher fixed-income trading revenue, lower PCL, and growth in debt and equity origination activity. These factors were partially offset by lower equity trading revenue, largely in Canada, higher variable compensation on improved results, and higher taxes. Overall, we had strong underlying results across most of our businesses, despite the challenging market environment.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Mark.

Thank you, Janice, and good morning. Turning to slide 14, total provisions for credit losses of CAD318 million were down CAD142 million or 31% from last quarter. Our PCL ratio of 24 basis points decreased 12 basis points. If we exclude last quarter's CAD50 million increase to the collective allowance, our PCL ratio on impaired loans decreased 8 basis points.

Our portfolios benefited from stable economic conditions, a modest decline in Canada's unemployment rate, and a 28% increase in average oil prices since Q2 2016. Our year-to-date PCL ratio of 30 basis points is within our historical range of 30 to 35 basis points. Our gross impaired loan ratio of 70 basis points is down 1 basis point from the prior quarter.

Let me discuss the credit performance of each segment on slide 15. In Personal & Commercial Banking, provisions of CAD271 million decreased by CAD8 million from last quarter, reflecting lower provisions in our personal lending portfolios in Canadian Banking. Caribbean and US Banking provisions were flat quarter over quarter. Wealth Management provisions of CAD14 million increased by CAD7 million from last quarter, mainly reflecting a modest increase in provisions at City National.

Capital Market provisions of CAD33 million decreased by CAD90 million from last quarter, largely reflecting fewer provisions in the oil and gas sector. This segment also had a couple of recoveries this quarter, one of which was in the oil and gas sector. As I have mentioned before, wholesale provisions can be lumpy from one quarter to the next.

Turning to slide 16, gross impaired loans of CAD3.7 billion were relatively flat from last quarter. New formations, which were still at elevated levels compared to prior years, were mostly offset by repayments and write-offs. I would also note these new formations were 39% lower than last quarter. Increased impairments in our Capital Markets oil and gas portfolio were mostly offset by lower impaired loans in Caribbean Banking and lower-acquired, credit-impaired loans related to City National. With respect to the increase in oil and gas impairments, our senior position in the debt stack and the value of our collateral give us comfort in our level of provisioning at this time.

Let's now turn to oil and gas on slide 17. With the moderate increase in oil prices over the last quarter, now in the high $40s, has provided some relief to our clients, it remains well-below 2014 levels and continues to challenge the profitability of the sector. A number of our clients took proactive measures to strengthen their financial positions. This included selling assets, reducing expenses, accessing capital markets to raise additional funds, and refreshing hedges at higher oil prices. In particular, we saw an increase in asset sales in the drilling and services sector.

Our drawn exposure decreased by 12% from last quarter, largely due to normal course business drivers, partially offset by the impact of foreign exchange translation. Our undrawn exposures were down by 2% over the same period. Outside of our direct oil and gas portfolio, our wholesale portfolio remains stable.

Let's now turn to our retail exposure on slide 18. The sustained low oil prices and higher unemployment rates continue to impact our retail portfolio in oil-exposed provinces, and we've seen an increase in provisions and delinquencies in these regions. However, it has been more than offset by improvements in economic conditions in other regions such as Ontario and BC, as reflected by reduced delinquencies on a national basis, which demonstrates the benefit of our diversified portfolio. Overall, our Canadian retail portfolio performed well this quarter, with PCL ratios down across most products.

Let me now turn to our mortgage portfolio on slide 19. Our portfolio continues to perform well, as the PCL ratio was unchanged from the previous quarter at 1 basis point. As Dave mentioned, Greater Vancouver and Toronto markets are being closely monitored due to elevated house prices. However, we consistently have the highest customer credit scores in these markets. We also continue to closely monitor our mortgage portfolios in oil-exposed regions.

Overall, we remain comfortable with our exposure to the Canadian housing market for the following reasons. We do not participate in the second-lien market and do not originate sub-prime mortgages. We utilize proprietary channels for mortgage origination, allowing for a centralized credit adjudication process and enhanced monitoring. We are diligent in income verification, which is a key component of our mortgage approval process. Our clients' credit profiles are strong and have remained stable.

In Alberta, customer credit scores remain in line with the national average, and a higher proportion of the portfolio is insured. And finally, I would note 48% of our portfolio is insured, which is up from 46% last quarter. This is due to the additional portfolio insurance that we purchased this quarter, which Dave highlighted in his remarks.

Turning to market risk on slide 20, VaR decreased by CAD8 million from last quarter, due to inventory reductions in equity portfolios, fixed income and securitized products. We had one day of trading loss this quarter, which totaled CAD4 million. The loss was driven by market volatility on our equity derivatives portfolio from hedge positions taken a week in advance of Brexit.

In conclusion, this quarter's strong credit performance shows the strength and resilience of our diversified portfolio. For the remainder of the year, we continue to believe our full year-to-date PCL will fall within the 30- to 35-basis point range, in line with our historical average, given ongoing economic and market headwinds.

With that, we'll open the lines for Q&A, and I would turn it back to the operator.

Thank you, sir.

(Operator Instructions)

Our first question is from Robert Sedran with CIBC.

Hi, good morning. Mark, I appreciate some of the conservative commentary around the outlook, but I'm just curious if that's based on Chief Risk Officer conservatism or it's based on things that you can see, but we cannot. Like, has the deterioration or has the performance of the portfolio stabilized, or is it still trending the way it had been? I understand the formation number, but just curious, the underlying trends.

I guess I still remain cautious. Certainly the oil price has improved, which is very helpful. We do have a higher level of impaired loans from previous years, which you mentioned, so that adds to my caution. I still do see some softness in Alberta.

I would offset both of those with the positive trends we're seeing across the rest of the country, as highlighted by our improved delinquency numbers. And if the oil price can continue in this range, the markets are relatively helpful to our clients in raising further financing and helping themselves, which has had helped. So I remain cautious, but if the market trends continue, I could certainly see us towards the end -- at the bottom of the 30- to 35-basis point range on a full-year basis.

With that comment about the markets being available to some of your borrowers, should we be more concerned about the Canadian Banking segment or about the Capital Markets segment, when it comes to loan losses related to oil & gas?

I would say, on the Canadian Banking side, it's a matter of two halves a little bit. We have Alberta, which does see continued softness, as the unemployment rate in Alberta is certainly higher. But in the rest of Canada, particularly Ontario and BC, we continue to see very strong growth, and that is performing well.

The wholesale portfolio in Capital Markets, as I mentioned in my remarks, can be lumpy. We still have sizeable impaired loans in that group. They are being resolved quite well through, as we've mentioned before, the security of our position and the seniority within our debt stack. But they can be lumpy.

Thank you. I'll re-queue.

Thank you. Our next question is from John Aiken with Barclays.

Good morning. Janice, thanks for the guidance on the insurance impact from the sale, but I'm assuming that you are not basing that off of the adjusted number for this quarter, but more of a run rate we've seen over the last few quarters?

Yes, that's the run rate, and it also is net of the fees that we'll be getting from Aviva in marketing. And we expect those fees to ramp up, as we are carrying additional products and offering fuller service.

So if the sales do beat your expectations, that CAD10 to CAD15 million could actually be reduced a couple quarters out or a couple years out?

Yes, that's what we are hoping.

Okay. And if I could do a follow on, on the Investor & Treasury Services, obviously the tightening credit spreads, as you mentioned, were beneficial. But the actions taken ahead of the quarter -- I'm assuming you're referring to the declining deposits that you had. What can we expect to see the impact of that going forward in terms earnings, assuming that the market stabilizes where we are at present?

I'll start with that, and Doug, you may have additional color at the detailed business level. But the actions that we're talking about were the fact that we had increased our liquidity portfolios in anticipation or reacting to what might happen in the US market. And we also were taking risk down as a function of what could possibly happen with respect to Brexit. And so that you saw a lot of activity in I&TS, but net, on a liquidity basis, you saw where our liquidity coverage ratio is -- we are down well-within any buffer that we have for regulatory purposes. But we have a lower liquidity portfolio.

Yes, I don't think there was any -- there was no strategy around reducing deposits. The strategy that Janice was referring to in her remarks was really the liquidity portfolio, the CAD50 billion plus or minus. We just reduced term, reduced tenure in that book, and reduced credit risk in that book going into Brexit. We had a mark immediately after Brexit that was negative, but it turned quite positive as credit gapped in when the central banks started buying credit.

Great, thanks for the color, appreciate it.

Thank you. Our next question is from Sumit Molhotra with Scotia Capital.

Thanks, good morning.

My questions are for Mark, and come back to your commentary on all bank provisioning. So the 30- to 35-basis point ratio that you've talked about for 2016 since the start of the year -- as you look at some of the moving parts and where you are in your provisioning cycle for energy, I guess part A would be, do you feel that, that's still a reasonable range that investors should be thinking about for 2017?

And perhaps relatedly, some of your counterparts have talked about a cumulative loss rate on the energy producer portfolio. And by my math you're at about 4.2%. Are you in a position to help us think through what's a reasonable level for that number to end up as the cycle plays out, given some of the positives you've talked about, like the ability of your clients to access the equity markets?

Thank you for the question.

2017 is obviously hard to give too much guidance on. A lot can -- as you said, moving parts. The oil price can certainly have a big impact on that. I think we still feel comfortable with the 30 to 35 basis points being the average normalized experience that we've had over the years. Whether we're at the bottom of that range or the top of that range, I think, will depend on how oil prices go, economic conditions, et cetera.

With respect to the cumulative ratio, the 4.2% that you're quoting is around the numbers that we would calculate as well. I would note that is over a seven-quarter period, going back, I think, to the beginning of 2015, to date. And so if you extrapolated that into next year, assuming the prices stay -- the oil prices stay down, then certainly the cumulative impact would continue to be higher.

I would contrast that with, say, the 1986 period, when some commentators obviously have talked to at around a 600-basis point level for the cumulative impact. But that was actually over a four-quarter period, because it was a much steeper, but very narrow type of crisis. This is now a more sustained crisis. So I think you do have to take into account how the period of time is changing with the various comparisons of the crisis.

Over next year, we will certainly see a number of our clients benefit from the markets, assuming they continue to be positive. We still believe our security and collateral positions will help us. We may have impaired loans, we may take PCL, but we should see recoveries as the companies work their way through them.

We've also seen companies that went into bankrupt earlier in the year, have come out with much stronger balance sheets, and they've been able to continue to move forward. So there's a lot of moving parts, as you mentioned. I think we remain cautious while the prices are where they are. But it has been a bit more of a sustained crisis than the previous one.

You gave some very interesting tidbits there. And the point that really caught my attention was, you did 600 basis points in 1986, was over four quarters. Right now, you've done about 400 basis points over seven quarters. But if we are hovering in this CAD50-ish range, certainly going through 2017, getting up and over that 600 level doesn't sound like it's out of the realm of possibility, based on what you're seeing. Is that a fair assessment?

I think certainly the math could suggest that on an average, once you start adding those numbers together, we could get up to that 600 level again. It will, of course, be dependent upon how the recoveries then start to net off against the PCL that we've taken in previous quarters.

Thank you for that. This is a very quick one for Janice on the numbers in the corporate support segment. We usually don't talk about that one very much, but just wanted ask you on net interest income. That line has consistently been CAD100 million and CAD150 million drag on NII, but it improved significantly this quarter. Was there anything in particular going on that caused that to drop, and is it sustainable?

It's always episodic, depending on where the marks are on our hedges. So with the little bit of the volatility, that's why we have a negative as opposed to a positive. But I would say that, treat it the way you've treated it in the past. There's nothing that's going to be systemically done differently today. It's more mark-to-market on hedges.

Thanks for your time.

Okay.

Thank you. Our next question is from Gabriel Dechaine with Canaccord Genuity.

Hi, good morning. Look, I got what was probably the 20th short Canada Housing report in my career yesterday, and Global Mail has another story on Vancouver housing today. What do you view as the main risks from housing in Vancouver, some of the recent pricing trends? Because I've become a little bit de-sensitized over the past few years, but it's still something I think about, something I get asked about. And I'm curious about your perspective.

And Mark, I think it was you or Dave who mentioned that if something happens, you've got a contingency plan in place. So what are you thinking there?

It's Mark here. I'll start. Certainly from our view of Vancouver, and/or Toronto is the same, obviously with the house price appreciation that we've seen over previous quarters, we are monitoring it quite closely. Vancouver has actually cooled off a little bit in recent weeks. But I think in our case, it's just really about continuing to maintain our discipline and risk posture as to how we approve loans and the type of origination that we put on.

We're quite pleased with the clients and the credit quality of the clients that we have there. We're quite pleased with our portfolio. But it is just because of external factors that are going on there, we do have to continue to monitor it quite closely.

Are you more concerned about decreased economic activity if the housing market slows down, and higher unemployment in BC potentially? As opposed to the housing market itself is going to have something bad happen to it?

I would say that it's one of the factors we include in our monitoring. At this point, I wouldn't place any greater emphasis on that.

This is Dave here. The only thing I would add: according to the numbers that we can obtain externally, our growth rate in Vancouver would be under-indexed to the market, from what we can see.

Thank you. Our next question is from Sohrab Movahedi with BMO Capital Markets.

Thanks. Just a couple of quickies here. Mark, the portfolio insurance, was that for risk management purposes, you would say, you bought this quarter?

Yes, it was opportunity, which we took advantage of.

Okay. And then maybe for Doug and Mark. Trading revenue obviously very good. You talked about the fixed income. But the foreign currency is also running at well-above trend rates, and VaR was down throughout the quarter. Just trying to get a feel for lower VaR, market-risk VaR. What's the outlook for trading at these types of VaR levels versus, let's say, last quarter's VaR levels? Is it repeatable at these VaR levels, or we have to add risk?

I think it's repeatable. I think it's really much more dependent on market circumstances. On the FIC trading numbers. It's really -- those numbers improved the most in Europe, and we're seeing better market share after a long restructuring of our European operations. Our rates business is producing well, our European credit business is doing extremely well, actually, in terms of especially very high market share in sterling. So that business is just doing more customer business; it's not about putting risk on.

And I think on the North American trading businesses -- Canada, fixed income, fine. Equity is a little slower in Canada and the US because the new issue environment has been slower, but hopefully, that will come back as markets come back. So I think after Labor Day, we'll see whether or not we get more activity.

On the FX, there's a line in the sup that has a very big number in it. Some of that -- that's futures activity in Investor & Treasury Services. A lot of customers are repositioning around Brexit, so we had a pretty good quarter in that space. And we're just doing more FX in Canada and Europe.

Okay. So all I'm trying to get a feel for here -- we may be coming now back to Janice -- is, you don't think that you will have to add to the RWAs, maybe through the market risk RWAs, in the future to maintain this, such that it becomes a tax on the CET1 ratio?

That's a good question, Sohrab, and the answer is no, we don't feel we have to add to the RWA to maintain this sort of trajectory on that line.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is from Peter Routledge with National Bank Financial.

Hi. Just a question, Dave, on your remarks. You made a point that things look pretty good right now in Vancouver and Toronto housing, but you also talked about reacting quickly to changes in those housing markets. And I wonder if you could give us a little more color on how the bank might react?

I can start, and maybe Jennifer can add a few words. I think Mark covered it off well in his comments, so I don't want to reiterate what we've already said. But certainly we watch the markets very carefully. We've got strong adjudication processes, we watch how we're performing against other market players. And from what we can tell, we're under-indexed to the growth in that marketplace right now.

So I think that's the best proof-point that we're being careful in the deals that we select and the business that we do, which would be tangible evidence that we are reacting to potentially a heated housing-price market. Where, as Mark pointed out, higher unemployment rates would have a harsher impact on a potential portfolio. Jennifer, did you want to add anything from what you're seeing?

The only thing I would add to that is, as Mark covered off, the cycle scores of the clients that were originating it there are actually above the national average, the loan to value is below, and the portfolio continues to perform very well. We also have very good ability to actually isolate our monitoring that we described before, by postal code, and watch for any early signs that there's any kind of issues with our portfolio. So as Mark very-well covered off, our proprietary salesforce, as well, gives us the comfort that we have good controls over our lending practices and our adjudication practices.

Would you -- do you have the ability to and would you revoke revocable unsecured household lending commitments in a particular region that you were worried about?

We obviously have the ability to do that, but we have not had to deploy that in the current situation.

And you didn't do it in Alberta?

Well, as we've said about our Alberta portfolio, is, we're continuing to monitor it very closely, and if there are signs of deterioration we can adjust. And I think we've adjusted some of our origination practices and made had adjustments to that in the last year.

Great, thanks for taking my question.

Thank you. Our next question is from Doug Young with Desjardins Capital Markets. Mr. Young, your line is now open.

Sorry about that. A question on your CET1. Just wondering what was the impact on the portfolio insurance on the CET1 in the quarter? And then Janice, the new rules are coming for mortgages come November 1, and I'm wondering if you have a best guess of what that impact could be on your CET1 ratio?

Thank you.

Thanks, Doug.

On the first question, impact on the CET1 ratio from the margins insurance is pretty small. It was -- we did that insurance more as a risk management tool. With respect to the new rules, first of all, we don't know precisely what the new rules are going to be. But we have looked at and spoke to the regulator about the extent of how these new rules will be implemented. And with respect to the impact, we have had a discussion, as has the industry, around the fact that they will be prospective. And the view would be that the banking system will be in a position to earn into the ratio.

So while we have looked at them and modeled some of the worse case or reasonable case, we think that whatever the rules are, we will have the ability to manage our capital and optimize our capital to fully accommodate them within the rollout schedule envisaged by the regulators.

And do you have a sense of what period that would be at this point?

I think that it could be out to 2020, 2021. The period is under discussion right now at Basel, because of the fact that this involves the whole world, including Europe and the US. And so they're having discussions around, for example, what's happening in Europe, and the potential impact on banks in Europe. So we're looking at the impact of that, and that is having in pushing out some of the deadlines, we think.

Doug, it's Mark here. I think your question was specifically about the November 1 OSFI change. And then Janice started with her answer there, and then broadened the answer to the Basel IV capital implications. I would just add with respect to the specific November 1, the comment that Janice made about it, it really applies to new originations, I think, is really the key point. It's not affecting the entire portfolio. It applies to new originations. That does include renewals, but our view of the impact for the 2017 is still relatively minor.

Okay, great, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is from Meny Grauman with Cormark Securities.

Hi, good morning.

Dave, you've been pretty clear about the Company's philosophy in terms of managing expenses. But I'm wondering, more broadly, under what circumstances would you consider taking a broader restructuring charge? And just on a related note, does what your peers do impact your thinking on this issue? Or would you say it's not a factor at all in what you decide to do?

I would say it's not really a factor. We're pretty clear on our map forward. We have a real focus on cost. I think we're really happy to see where our cost control comes in, with the 1% growth in NIE net of City National. I think that's -- without having taken any one-time charges to manage that, I think that seems to compare very favorably, based on the work we see in the marketplace by others, as a cost control number.

So we absolutely benchmark. We like to see where we are. But we were very focused on an overall program. We're down in a number of our businesses in FTE. We planned that, trying to manage that with a minimal amount of customer impact, which is a big part of our journey. We have the best productivity ratio in the industry, and we're very proud of that, but that doesn't mean we're complacent. So benchmarking is a big part of it.

But overall, we continue to look for opportunity, and we have very defined programs to take out costs, digitize our bank, and to move forward creating shareholder value. So it's a core part of our DNA. And I think as we've mentioned on other calls, that the cost of managing down our expense base is embedded in our run rates. And therefore, it's a continuous activity that doesn't necessarily require a one-time charge.

That doesn't mean we won't come to a junction where we have to make a more significant change to the Organization. And we're always open to that, so it would not prohibit us from doing it. But our current methodology seems to be performing very well.

Thanks for that. And then if I could switch gears and ask about the impact of Brexit on the capital markets business in Europe going forward? And wondering if you have any visibility in terms of any changes that you would have to make to your existing structure related to that vote?

I'll start, and maybe I'll hand it over to Doug. It's obviously premature to comment on what changes we would have to make. The current structure that we have gives us enormous flexibility, particularly with a bank in Luxembourg, to adapt to any changes. But it would be premature to say right now. There's a lot that has to happen obviously, with the invoking of the treaty, and then the negotiation over a two-year period, and the passporting rule. So, like all market participants, we're sitting back and we're watching.

But we're committed to this market. It's a large market, in the UK. We've got a very strong business there, and we're committed to that business. And we see an opportunity to serve clients in a bigger way going forward. And our focus right now is to win one client at a time.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Good morning. I have a question for Janice in terms of, you talked about the risk-weighted assets. If you can talk about the other side, are there any additional actions that you can take to further optimize the asset base from a CET1 perspective?

We're constantly doing that in terms of -- mostly it's about RWA. It's also about looking at how we can, to some degree, contain areas like pension volatility, and what we're doing around estimation there. But it is basically about us going forward and always looking at supporting our clients, and making sure that for our shareholders, we're earning a good return on every piece of capital that we put against the businesses. So it's an ongoing activity that's a day-to-day activity.

Understood. And tied to capital in terms of when you think about buybacks, the stocks had a good run. How should we think about in terms of you going through the buyback authorization relative to the stock price? Or should we expect to complete the authorization over a set period of time?

I think that you have seen us do about CAD300 million of buybacks this past quarter because we had some capacity, and that was after funding all of our organic growth and also insuring that we could support a dividend increase this quarter. And so, as we have pretty solid earnings accretion levels and our growth is pretty solid also, you should see us continuing on our program. And as you know, we will -- we review it once a year, and we just put it in place last quarter.

Understood. And a separate question, if I can ask Mark. I think you mentioned about the prolonged crisis. What's the price of oil that we need where we get out of the crisis environment and where we actually see a rebound in sort of your borrower activities in the energy sector?

Well, if I could answer that, I might not actually be sitting in this chair, I would be doing something else. But certainly from I think what we can see, once you get to 50 or above, you'll start to see, I think, some of the American production start to come back. So that will have a bit of an impact on the marketplace. But really, I think you would need to see it a little bit higher than that to start getting some of the re-investment that we would have been seeing two or three years ago.

The chances of us getting back to 100 in the foreseeable future, I think, would be fairly slim, unless there is a change in some of the producers globally, in their attempts to maintain their production levels. But 40 to 60 level I would have thought would be the range we would expect to see. If it goes below 40, it's a tougher environment. If it goes above 60, it's maybe a bit more of a positive environment.

Understood. Thank you very much.

Thank you. We have a question from Gabriel Dechaine with Canaccord Genuity.

Oh, I didn't expect the follow-up to come up. Just asking, similar to the last one actually -- the decline in market risk RWAs has been pretty steep. You peaked out at around CAD46 billion in market risk RWAs, and now in 2014, now you're at CAD26 billion. So, massive decrease. FX was playing a part in that, I assume. But I just want to know, what kind of revenue were you generating off the assets that you've shed from your balance sheet? And how much of this reduction has been deliberate in advance of some inflation coming from the fundamental review with the trading book?

First of all, the most dramatic reduction is in the asset-backed securities trading in the US. And so it's just -- it's a business that has become really illiquid in the trading environment, because dealers just have to hold so much RWA against those assets -- RMBS, CMBS, in particular. And so we have taken that book almost down to zero, and the biggest reduction is there. I would say that the revenues were not particularly great in that business, since that's why you aren't seeing a significant change.

And just across all the other inventories, the next biggest change would probably be in credit and high-yield inventories. And given the credit markets we've had the last nine months, we just haven't had much on. We got very light last fall, and that's the other big reduction you would see.

In terms of the fundamental review of the trading book, we're obviously have our eye on that. And to Janice's remarks, we're really just trying to get as efficient on RWA in those trading books and in the loan book as we can be. And that's where you're seeing the reductions.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. McKay.

I'd like to thank everybody for participating in our Q3 call, and we'll see you in three months. Thank you very much.

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.