RXO Inc (RXO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to RXO Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Lara and I will be your operator for today's call. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 RXO 2023 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我叫勞拉，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

During this call, the company will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Federal Securities Laws, which by their nature involve a number of risks and uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as in its earnings release. You should refer to a copy of the company's earnings release in the Investor Relations section on the company's website for additional important information regarding forward-looking statements and disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that the company uses when discussing its results.

在本次電話會議中，公司將做出聯邦證券法含義內的某些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明本質上涉及許多風險和不確定性，以及可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中的結果存在重大差異的其他因素。尋找陳述。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件及其收益報告中包含了對可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的討論。您應該在公司網站的投資者關係部分參閱公司收益發布的副本，以獲取有關前瞻性陳述以及公司在討論其業績時使用的非公認會計準則財務指標的披露和調節的其他重要資訊。

I will now turn the call over to Drew Wilkerson. Mr. Wilkerson, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給德魯·威爾克森。威爾克森先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today. With me here in Charlotte are Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Harris; and Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld. Before I get into our fourth-quarter results, I want to recap 2023, a historic year for RXO.

大家早安，感謝您今天的加入。和我一起在夏洛特的是財務長傑米哈里斯 (Jamie Harris)；首席策略長賈里德·韋斯菲爾德。在介紹第四季業績之前，我想回顧一下 2023 年，這對 RXO 來說是歷史性的一年。

When we spun from XPO in November of 2022, we created a new public company that is more fit for purpose with the ability to allocate capital even more effectively. While market conditions were difficult when we spun, we viewed this as an opportunity to demonstrate the power of our model.

當我們在 2022 年 11 月從 XPO 剝離時，我們創建了一家新的上市公司，它更適合目標，能夠更有效地分配資本。雖然我們旋轉時的市場條件很困難，但我們認為這是一個展示我們模型力量的機會。

In 2023, we doubled down on our strengths, exceptional customer service, solutions that help our customers solve their toughest transportation challenges, innovation, and deep customer relationships. We also successfully integrated new leaders into our existing long-tenured team. Our model delivered outperformance for 2023 despite the extended soft freight market conditions.

2023 年，我們將加倍發揮我們的優勢、卓越的客戶服務、幫助客戶解決最棘手的運輸挑戰的解決方案、創新和深厚的客戶關係。我們也成功地將新的領導者融入我們現有的長期團隊中。儘管貨運市場狀況持續疲軟，我們的模型在 2023 年仍表現出色。

Brokerage volume grew by 12% year over year, with gross margin of more than 15%. Brokerage cross-border loads grew by 37% year over year. Brokerage productivity, as measured by loads per head per day, increased by over 15%. In maintenance transportation, we significantly grew the synergy loads provided to our other lines of business, largely truck brokerage.

經紀業務量較去年同期成長12%，毛利率超過15%。經紀跨境業務量較去年同期成長37%。以每人每天的負載衡量，經紀商生產力提高了 15% 以上。在維修運輸方面，我們顯著增加了為其他業務（主要是卡車經紀）提供的協同負載。

We also on-boarded several large new customers. We grew last mile adjusted EBITDA year over year. We also generated strong adjusted free cash flow of $49 million, which Jamie will expand on later. We achieved all of this, while making investments for our future, including our people, offices, technology, and services. I couldn't be prouder of what the RXO team delivered in 2023, and I'm looking forward to continuing to outperform this year.

我們也吸引了幾個大型新客戶。我們的最後一哩調整後 EBITDA 逐年成長。我們還產生了 4900 萬美元的強勁調整後自由現金流，傑米稍後將擴大這一規模。我們實現了這一切，同時為我們的未來進行投資，包括我們的人員、辦公室、技術和服務。我對 RXO 團隊在 2023 年交付的成果感到非常自豪，我期待今年繼續表現出色。

Now let's discuss our fourth quarter results. RXO continued to perform well in the quarter despite soft freight market conditions that have persisted. For the third consecutive quarter, we achieved double-digit brokerage volume growth. Total brokerage volume grew by 15%. Full truckload brokerage volume grew by 11%, and less than truckload volume grew by 45% year over year. We again broke records in our brokerage business this quarter. Quarterly loads per day and total volume hit new highs. Full truckload has always been the core of our brokerage business and it represented 84% of volume in the quarter.

現在讓我們討論一下我們第四季的業績。儘管貨運市場狀況持續疲軟，但 RXO 在本季持續表現良好。我們連續第三個季度實現了經紀業務量兩位數的成長。經紀業務總量成長了 15%。整車經紀量年增11%，零擔經紀量較去年同期成長45%。本季我們的經紀業務再次打破了記錄。每季每日負載量和總交易量均創下新高。整車一直是我們經紀業務的核心，佔本季交易量的84%。

Later Jared will talk in more detail about our volume growth by vertical, but all of our major truckload verticals grew year over year. Our cross-border loads also grew by an impressive 28% year over year. Contract volume was again the most important driver of our growth and represented 80% of our mix in the quarter. Securing contractual volume puts us in prime position to win spot volume and project loads when the market inflects.

稍後賈里德將更詳細地討論我們按垂直方向的銷量增長，但我們所有主要的卡車垂直方向都在逐年增長。我們的跨國負載也年增了 28%，令人印象深刻。合約量再次成為我們成長的最重要推動力，佔本季業務總量的 80%。確保合約量使我們處於有利地位，可以在市場變化時贏得現貨量和項目負載。

RXO continues to take profitable market share. Brokerage gross margin was 14.8% in the quarter. In complementary services, Managed Transportation again grew the synergy loads it provided to our other lines of business, mainly truck brokerage. Managed Transportation also secured several key wins including new managed expedite customers solidifying our position as a leading provider of this service.

RXO 繼續佔據有利可圖的市場份額。本季經紀業務毛利率為 14.8%。在補充服務方面，管理運輸再次增加了為我們其他業務（主要是卡車經紀）提供的協同負載。託管運輸也獲得了許多關鍵勝利，包括新的託管加急客戶，鞏固了我們作為該服務領先提供者的地位。

In Last Mile, the focus we placed on improving profitability was successful and we grew adjusted EBITDA both sequentially and year over year for the fourth quarter and for full year 2023. We're pleased with the progress we've made in our Last Mile business, and we have many opportunities ahead. Complementary services gross margin was 20.9% in the quarter, up 90 basis points sequentially and up 40 basis points year-over-year. Our proprietary technology continues to drive many of these results.

在「最後一哩路」中，我們對提高盈利能力的關注取得了成功，第四季度和 2023 年全年的調整後 EBITDA 連續增長和同比增長。我們對「最後一哩路」業務所取得的進展感到滿意，未來還有很多機會。本季補充服務毛利率為 20.9%，季增 90 個基點，較去年同期成長 40 個基點。我們的專有技術持續推動其中許多成果的發展。

In the fourth quarter, 97% of the loads were created or covered digitally, up from 87% a year ago. Our seven-day carrier retention was 76%, up 200 basis points year over year. I'd now like to spend some time giving you an overview of what we're seeing in the market and how that impacted our business in the fourth quarter. The freight market continued to soften during the fourth quarter, primarily due to supply side challenges. The load to truck ratio declined to about 2:1 in the fourth quarter, down from nearly 3:1 in the third quarter.

第四季度，97% 的負載是透過數位方式創建或覆蓋的，高於一年前的 87%。我們的 7 天承運人保留率為 76%，年成長 200 個基點。現在我想花一些時間向您概述我們在市場上看到的情況以及這對我們第四季度業務的影響。第四季貨運市場持續疲軟，主要是由於供應方面的挑戰。載重比從第三季的近 3:1 降至第四季的 2:1 左右。

Industry tender rejections remained steady at just about 4%. The logistics manager’s index dropped sharply in November after three consecutive monthly increases. It rebounded only modestly in December. Carrier exits accelerated, but there's still too much capacity relative to demand. We also experienced a muted peak season. We saw a typical seasonal capacity reduction at the end of Q4 and when combined with inclement weather hitting certain parts of the country, there were limited opportunities to improve our buy rates.

行業投標拒絕率穩定在 4% 左右。物流經理指數在連續三個月上漲後，11 月大幅下降。12 月僅小幅反彈。營運商退出速度加快，但相對於需求而言，運能仍然過多。我們還經歷了淡旺季。我們在第四季末看到了典型的季節性產能減少，再加上該國某些地區遭遇惡劣天氣，提高購買率的機會有限。

This negatively impacted both our brokerage gross margin percentage and gross profit per load throughout the quarter. However, our focus on profitable growth while controlling costs enabled us to increase adjusted EBITDA by approximately 20% sequentially, in line with the expectations that we communicated to you last quarter. I'd like now to discuss our expectations for the first quarter.

這對我們整個季度的經紀毛利率和每次負載毛利產生了負面影響。然而，我們在控製成本的同時注重盈利增長，使我們能夠將調整後的 EBITDA 環比增長約 20%，這符合我們上季度向您傳達的預期。我現在想討論一下我們對第一季的預期。

We expect that our strong brokerage sales pipeline will enable us to deliver year-over-year brokerage volume growth in the first quarter, albeit at a slower pace than in the fourth quarter. Brokerage gross margin compression continued into January and we anticipate that will impact the first quarter. Jamie and Jared will discuss this in more detail later in the call. As we look forward to the rest of the year, we're preparing for multiple scenarios. At this time, our base case is the recovery will begin in the second half of the year. That assumes that the macro economy remains stable and carrier exits continue to accelerate.

我們預計，強大的經紀銷售管道將使我們能夠在第一季實現經紀業務量的同比增長，儘管增長低於第四季度。經紀業務毛利率壓縮持續到一月份，我們預計這將影響第一季。傑米和賈里德將在稍後的電話會議中更詳細地討論這個問題。當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我們正在為多種情況做準備。目前，我們的基本預測是復甦將於今年下半年開始。這是假設宏觀經濟保持穩定並且航空公司退出繼續加速。

In market conditions like these, large companies like RXO, who have financial strength, strong relationships with customers and carriers, and cutting-edge technology will excel and widen the gap with the competition? We have our sights set on the future and are investing for long-term growth and profitability. We also continue to react quickly to changing market dynamics, including by reducing our costs. The actions we're taking now will help drive outsized growth when the market turns.

在這樣的市場環境下，像RXO這樣擁有雄厚資金實力、與客戶和營運商關係密切、擁有尖端技術的大公司能否脫穎而出，拉大與競爭對手的差距？我們著眼於未來，並為長期成長和獲利能力進行投資。我們也繼續對不斷變化的市場動態做出快速反應，包括降低成本。我們現在採取的行動將有助於在市場轉變時推動大幅成長。

Now, Jamie will discuss our financial results in more detail. Jamie?

現在，傑米將更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。傑米？

Thank you, Drew, and good morning, everyone. I'll review our fourth quarter performance in addition to some highlights for the full year. In the fourth quarter, we generated $1 billion in revenue compared to $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. Gross margin in the quarter was 18%. While gross margin declined 150 basis points year over year, we are pleased with this performance given the current freight environment.

謝謝你，德魯，大家早安。除了全年的一些亮點之外，我還將回顧我們第四季度的業績。第四季我們創造了 10 億美元的收入，而 2022 年第四季的收入為 11 億美元。該季度毛利率為 18%。雖然毛利率年減 150 個基點，但考慮到當前的貨運環境，我們對此業績感到滿意。

Our adjusted EBITDA was $31 million in the quarter, in line with our expectations of 20% sequential growth. This compares to $64 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 3.2%, down 250 basis points year over year. The declines in these metrics were primarily due to lower freight rates and the moderation in brokerage gross margin. Below the line, our interest expense for the quarter was $8 million. Our adjusted effective tax rate of 29% in the quarter was lower than our previous expectations due to discrete tax items. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.06, which includes approximately $0.02 of discrete tax benefits. You can find a bridge to adjusted EPS on slide 7 of the earnings presentation.

本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 3,100 萬美元，符合我們 20% 環比成長的預期。相比之下，2022 年第四季的銷售額為 6,400 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.2%，較去年同期下降 250 個基點。這些指標的下降主要是由於運費下降和經紀毛利率的放緩。在此線之下，本季的利息支出為 800 萬美元。由於稅項離散，本季調整後有效稅率為 29%，低於我們先前的預期。本季調整後攤薄每股收益為 0.06 美元，其中包括約 0.02 美元的離散稅收優惠。您可以在收益簡報的幻燈片 7 上找到調整每股收益的橋樑。

Moving to our lines of business. In the fourth quarter, our brokerage business generated $610 million of revenue, down 8% year over year, primarily due to lower freight rates. Brokerage volume for the quarter increased by 15% year over year. Brokerage gross margin remained strong in the quarter at 14.8%. While gross margin declined 300 basis points year over year against a very tough comp, it only declined by 30 basis points sequentially.

轉向我們的業務範圍。第四季度，我們的經紀業務實現營收6.1億美元，年減8%，主要是因為運價下降。本季經紀業務量較去年同期成長 15%。本季經紀業務毛利率依然強勁，達 14.8%。儘管毛利率年減 300 個基點，但對比非常艱難的情況，僅比上一季下降了 30 個基點。

Complementary services revenue in the quarter of $411 million was down 16% year over year. Revenue was impacted by lower automotive volumes in our managed transportation business and continued weakness in the big and bulky category impacting Last Mile.

該季度補充服務收入為 4.11 億美元，年減 16%。收入受到我們管理的運輸業務中汽車銷量下降以及影響最後一英里的大件類別持續疲軟的影響。

While Last Mile stops were down 9% year over year in the quarter, Last Mile adjusted EBITDA was up year over year, primarily as a result of strategic pricing actions we took earlier in the year combined with continued operational improvements. Our customers recognize the value that our Last Mile business provides and we're excited about the opportunities in this part of our business.

雖然本季「最後一哩路」停靠站年減 9%，但「最後一哩路」調整後 EBITDA 卻較去年同期成長，這主要是由於我們今年稍早採取的策略定價行動以及持續的營運改善。我們的客戶認識到我們最後一哩業務提供的價值，我們對這部分業務的機會感到興奮。

Complementary services gross margin of 20.9% improved by 40 basis points year over year and by 90 basis points sequentially. Fourth quarter seasonality and our Last Mile pricing initiatives were the biggest drivers of our improved gross margin on a sequential and year-over-year basis, respectively.

補充服務毛利率為 20.9%，較去年成長 40 個基點，較上季提高 90 個基點。第四季的季節性因素和最後一哩的定價措施分別是我們毛利率上季和年比改善的最大推動力。

Turning to the full year. In 2023, we generated $3.9 billion in revenue compared to $4.8 billion in 2022. 2023 gross margin of 18.3% was down 130 basis points year over year. Our full year adjusted EBITDA was $132 million compared to $306 million in 2022. Our adjusted EBITDA margin for the year was 3.4% down 300 basis points. The declines in these metrics were primarily due to lower freight rates and the moderation in brokerage gross margin.

轉至全年。2023 年，我們的營收為 39 億美元，而 2022 年為 48 億美元。2023 年毛利率為 18.3%，年減 130 個基點。我們全年調整後 EBITDA 為 1.32 億美元，而 2022 年為 3.06 億美元。我們今年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.4%，下降了 300 個基點。這些指標的下降主要是由於運費下降和經紀毛利率的放緩。

Now I'd like to discuss the full year results for our lines of business. Brokerage revenue for the year was $2.4 billion down 19% year over year, primarily due to lower freight rates. Brokerage volume for the year increased by 12% year over year. Broker’s gross margin remained strong at 15.4%, but declined by 300 basis points year over year. Complementary services revenue was $1.7 billion for the full year, down 15%. Gross margin of 20.8% improved by 80 basis points year over year. For the full year, Last Miles stops were down 9%, but adjusted EBITDA was up year over year, as we mentioned earlier.

現在我想討論一下我們業務部門的全年業績。全年經紀收入為 24 億美元，年減 19%，主要是因為運費下降。全年經紀業務量較去年同期成長12%。經紀商的毛利率仍維持在 15.4% 的強勁水平，但年減了 300 個基點。全年補充服務收入為 17 億美元，下降 15%。毛利率為20.8%，較去年增加80個基點。正如我們之前提到的，全年最後一哩停靠點下降了 9%，但調整後的 EBITDA 年成長。

Please turn to slide 8 as we discuss cash flow. Our adjusted pre-cash flow of negative $2 million over the trailing six months was impacted by lower profitability levels at the bottom of the freight cycle. As we mentioned during last quarter's call, Q3 adjusted pre-cash flow was also negatively impacted by the earlier than expected collections in the second quarter.

請翻到幻燈片 8，我們討論現金流。過去六個月，我們調整後的預現金流為負 200 萬美元，這是受到貨運週期底部盈利水準較低的影響。正如我們在上季度的電話會議中提到的，第三季調整後的預現金流也受到第二季早於預期收款的負面影響。

For the full year, RXO generates strong adjusted free cash flow of $49 million, or approximately 37% of adjusted EBITDA. As we discussed last quarter, our 2023 adjusted free cash flow was impacted by out-of-period cash tax payments in the amount of $15 million. When adjusting for those payments, our 2023 adjusted free cash flow conversion was approximately 48%. This speaks to the power of the RXO model and our ability to generate meaningful cash flow during a down cycle. We remain comfortable with an annual adjusted cash conversion rate between 40% and 60% of adjusted EBITDA over the long term across market cycles.

RXO 全年產生 4,900 萬美元的強勁調整後自由現金流，約佔調整後 EBITDA 的 37%。正如我們上季度所討論的，我們 2023 年調整後的自由現金流受到了 1500 萬美元的期外現金稅支付的影響。在調整這些付款時，我們 2023 年調整後的自由現金流轉換約為 48%。這說明了 RXO 模型的力量以及我們在下行週期中產生有意義的現金流的能力。從長期來看，我們對跨市場週期的調整後 EBITDA 的年度調整後現金轉換率在 40% 至 60% 之間保持滿意。

At the bottom of the cycle, adjusted cash conversion will be negatively impacted by fixed charges such as interest expense in addition to the capital expenditures that we intend to make for long-term growth. As Drew mentioned, at this time our base case is that the freight market recovery will begin in the second half of the year. As a reminder, accelerated growth as the cycle turns will result in the use of working capital. We continue to anticipate using approximately 7% to 9% of each incremental revenue dollar. This could impact short-term cash conversion depending on the pace of the recovery.

在週期的底部，除了我們打算用於長期成長的資本支出之外，調整後的現金轉換還將受到利息支出等固定費用的負面影響。正如德魯所提到的，目前我們的基本情況是貨運市場將在下半年開始復甦。提醒一下，隨著週期的轉變，加速成長將導致營運資本的使用。我們預計將繼續使用每增量收入的約 7% 至 9%。這可能會影響短期現金轉換，具體取決於復甦的速度。

Now let's move to slide 8 where we've included a six-month cash bridge. We ended the quarter with $5 million of cash on the balance sheet, slightly above our expectations due to strong receipts in the quarter. The reduction of our cash balance from the third quarter was principally a function of our $100 million term loan prepayment.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8，其中包含了六個月的現金橋樑。本季末，我們的資產負債表上有 500 萬美元現金，由於本季收入強勁，略高於我們的預期。我們的現金餘額較第三季減少主要是因為我們預付了 1 億美元的定期貸款。

Turning to cost, in 2023 we achieved annualized run rate savings of approximately $32 million with associated restructuring charges of $16 million, a very strong return. While the savings have been masked by the current freight cycle dynamics and the reduction in brokerage gross profit per load, this will create significant operating leverage when the cycle turns.

談到成本，2023 年，我們實現了年化運行率節省約 3,200 萬美元，相關重組費用為 1,600 萬美元，這是一個非常強勁的回報。雖然節省的成本被當前的貨運週期動態和每次裝載的經紀毛利的減少所掩蓋，但這將在周期轉變時產生顯著的營運槓桿。

Our full year 2023 restructuring and spend related costs were $28 million, better than last quarter's estimate of $30 million to $32 million and our initial expectation of approximately $35 million at the beginning of 2023. Additionally, the cash outflows associated with these restructuring and spend related actions were $23 million, also better than the $25 million expectation that we shared with you last quarter and our initial expectation of $30 million at the beginning of 2023.

我們 2023 年全年的重組和支出相關成本為 2,800 萬美元，優於上季預計的 3,000 萬至 3,200 萬美元，以及我們在 2023 年初約 3,500 萬美元的初步預期。此外，與這些重組和支出相關行動相關的現金流出為 2300 萬美元，也好於我們上季度與您分享的 2500 萬美元的預期以及我們在 2023 年初的 3000 萬美元的初步預期。

I want to spend some time discussing our cost optimization efforts for 2024. While we continue to strategically invest in the business, we will always leverage our technology and operate with a continuous improvement mindset. That said, given the current market conditions, we are acting expeditiously to take additional costs out of the business. We currently plan to take out at least $25 million of additional annualized operating expenses.

我想花一些時間討論我們 2024 年的成本優化工作。在我們繼續對業務進行策略性投資的同時，我們將始終利用我們的技術並以持續改進的心態進行營運。也就是說，考慮到當前的市場狀況，我們正在迅速採取行動，以消除業務中的額外成本。我們目前計劃支出至少 2500 萬美元的額外年度營運費用。

From a capital expenditure perspective, our current projection for 2024 is for capital expenditures in the amount of $40 million to $50 million. This compares to $64 million in 2023 and is more in line with our long-term, cross-cycle target of 1% of revenues. Also remember, 2023 capital expenditures included approximately $12 million of strategic real estate spend.

從資本支出的角度來看，我們目前預測 2024 年的資本支出為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。相較之下，2023 年為 6,400 萬美元，更符合我們佔營收 1% 的長期跨週期目標。另請記住，2023 年的資本支出包括約 1,200 萬美元的策略性房地產支出。

As I mentioned earlier, we are continuing to invest for growth but are mindful of the current operating environment. As you can see on slide 9, our liquidity position remains healthy with $600 million of committed liquidity at the end of the quarter. Growth and net leverage at quarter end were both approximately 2.5 times trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, moving higher from the prior quarter as we cycle through last year's EBITDA.

正如我之前提到的，我們將繼續投資以實現成長，但同時也專注於當前的營運環境。正如您在投影片 9 中看到的，我們的流動性狀況保持健康，截至本季末承諾流動性為 6 億美元。季度末的成長和淨槓桿率均約為過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 2.5 倍，隨著我們循環查看去年的 EBITDA，較上一季上升。

We remain comfortable with our current leverage ratio and given the strong free cash flow characteristics of our business, we will de-lever as the cycle inflects. Our customers want to work with strong partners like RXO that can perform and invest across all market cycles.

我們對當前的槓桿率仍然感到滿意，並且鑑於我們業務強大的自由現金流特徵，我們將隨著週期的變化而去槓桿化。我們的客戶希望與像 RXO 這樣能夠在所有市場週期中執行和投資的強大合作夥伴合作。

Regarding the first quarter, as Drew mentioned earlier, our brokerage business is currently being impacted by market conditions and limited spot opportunities pressuring our gross margin. We therefore are anticipating an above seasonal sequential decline in adjusted EBITDA. Specifically, we expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $12 million to $18 million.

關於第一季度，正如德魯之前提到的，我們的經紀業務目前受到市場狀況的影響，現貨機會有限，對我們的毛利率造成壓力。因此，我們預期調整後 EBITDA 的降幅將高於季節性。具體來說，我們預計第一季調整後 EBITDA 在 1200 萬美元至 1800 萬美元之間。

You can find our 2024 modeling assumptions on slide 13 of the deck. We expect the following: capital expenditures between $40 million and $50 million, depreciation expense between $56 million and $58 million, amortization of intangibles of approximately $12 million, stock-based compensation expense between $24 million and $26 million; restructuring, transaction and integration expenses between $20 million and $25 million; net interest expense between $31 million and $33 million, and we expect our full-year 2024 adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 30%. This assumes no change in the current tax law. You should also model an average diluted share count of approximately 120 million shares. This does not include any impact associated with potential share repurchases.

您可以在投影片 13 上找到我們的 2024 年建模假設。我們預計：資本支出在4000 萬美元到5000 萬美元之間，折舊費用在5600 萬美元到5800 萬美元之間，無形資產攤銷約為1200 萬美元，股票補償費用在2400 萬美元到2600 萬美元之間；重組、交易和整合費用在 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元之間；淨利息支出在 3,100 萬美元至 3,300 萬美元之間，我們預計 2024 年全年調整後的有效稅率約為 30%。這是假設現行稅法沒有變動。您還應該對大約 1.2 億股的平均稀釋股數進行建模。這不包括與潛在股票回購相關的任何影響。

Overall, given the current state of the freight cycle, we're pleased with our execution. We're operating well, investing strategically while remaining disciplined on cost and positioning RXO for the cycle inflection.

總體而言，考慮到貨運週期的當前狀態，我們對我們的執行感到滿意。我們運作良好，進行策略性投資，同時維持成本控制，並針對週期拐點定位 RXO。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld, who will talk more in detail about our results and our outlook.

現在我想將其交給首席策略長 Jared Weisfeld，他將更詳細地談論我們的業績和前景。

Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. We continued to outperform the market in the fourth quarter, growing brokerage volume by 15% year over year with continued substantial profitable market share gains enabled by our people and our technology.

謝謝傑米，大家早安。第四季度，我們的表現持續跑贏市場，經紀業務量年增 15%，我們的員工和技術使我們的市場份額持續大幅成長。

More specifically, we grew our core truckload volumes by 11% year over year and grew LTL volume by 45% year over year. Our full truckload customers continue to award us LTL loads because of our strong service and relationships. LTL represented approximately 16% of brokerage volumes in the fourth quarter.

更具體地說，我們的核心卡車裝載量年增 11%，零擔量年增 45%。由於我們強大的服務和關係，我們的整車客戶繼續向我們提供零擔運輸服務。LTL 約佔第四季經紀業務量的 16%。

In our full truckload business, all of our major verticals grew year over year in the fourth quarter. We believe this speaks to our idiosyncratic profitable market share gains as our results continue to outpace the macroeconomic indicators most closely aligned with these verticals. Retail and e-commerce volumes grew by 12% year over year. Volume from our industrial and manufacturing customers increased by high single digits year on year. This is particularly noteworthy as the ISM manufacturing PMI was in contractionary territory for all of 2023.

在我們的整車業務中，我們所有的主要垂直行業在第四季度都同比增長。我們相信，這說明了我們獨特的獲利性市佔率成長，因為我們的業績持續超過與這些垂直產業最密切相關的宏觀經濟指標。零售和電子商務交易量年增 12%。我們的工業和製造業客戶的銷售量較去年同期出現高個位數成長。這尤其值得注意，因為 ISM 製造業 PMI 在 2023 年全年都處於收縮區間。

From a profitability perspective, we again delivered strong brokerage gross margin of 14.8% in the quarter, down just 30 basis points sequentially, enabled by our technology. The quarter started off strong from a gross margin standpoint. But as Drew discussed earlier, the freight market weakened throughout the entire quarter, we had a muted holiday peak season, and we experienced the capacity squeeze at the end of the quarter. I'll discuss this in more detail shortly.

從獲利能力的角度來看，在我們的技術的推動下，本季我們再次實現了 14.8% 的強勁經紀業務毛利率，僅比上一季下降了 30 個基點。從毛利率的角度來看，本季開局強勁。但正如德魯之前討論的那樣，整個季度貨運市場都在疲軟，我們經歷了一個淡定的假期旺季，並且在季度末經歷了運力緊縮。我很快就會更詳細地討論這個問題。

In the fourth quarter, 97% of our loads were created or covered digitally versus 87% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Seven-day carrier retention was a strong 76% in the quarter compared to 74% in the fourth quarter of 2022. We launched several new technology features in the quarter, including enhanced generative AI capabilities that are helping our sales enablement teams get closer to our customers. We also increased automation within our LTL business and implemented new auto tracking capabilities for cross-border freight. Our technology continues to enable our people to become even more productive.

第四季度，我們 97% 的負載是透過數位方式創建或覆蓋的，而 2022 年第四季為 87%。本季的 7 天承運商保留率高達 76%，而 2022 年第四季為 74%。我們在本季推出了多項新技術功能，包括增強的生成人工智慧功能，幫助我們的銷售支援團隊更接近客戶。我們也提高了零擔業務的自動化程度，並為跨境貨運實施了新的自動追蹤功能。我們的技術繼續使我們的員工更有效率。

In 2023, productivity in our brokerage business as measured by loads per head per day improved by over 15% year over year. In the fourth quarter, contractual volume represented 80% of our business flat sequentially and up 500 basis points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Contract volume grew 23% year over year. Because our LTL business is largely contractual, we thought it would also be helpful to share our contract mix for our truckload business, which was approximately 75% in the quarter.

2023 年，我們經紀業務的生產力（以每人每天的負載衡量）比去年同期提高了 15% 以上。第四季度，合約量占我們業務的 80%，與上一季持平，與 2022 年第四季相比增加了 500 個基點。合約量較去年同期成長23%。由於我們的零擔業務主要是合約性的，因此我們認為分享我們的卡車裝載業務的合約組合也會有所幫助，該比例在本季度約為 75%。

While we have not yet seen meaningful spot opportunities, it's worth noting that line haul spot rates moved higher as the fourth quarter progressed. I'll discuss this in more detail shortly, but if spot rates in industry-wide tender rejections continue to move higher because of our contractual business and our deep customer relationships, RXO will be a prime beneficiary of spot volume.

雖然我們尚未看到有意義的現貨機會，但值得注意的是，隨著第四季度的進展，長途運輸現貨費率有所上升。我很快就會更詳細地討論這個問題，但如果由於我們的合約業務和深厚的客戶關係，全行業拒絕投標的即期價格繼續走高，RXO 將成為現貨量的主要受益者。

I'd like to expand on our current view of the freight cycle, and I'll refer you to slides 10 through 12 of the presentation. Let's start with revenue per load. Revenue per load declines eased again in the fourth quarter and declined by 20% year over year. The year-over-year decline improved by 600 basis points when compared to the third quarter.

我想擴展我們目前對貨運週期的看法，我將向您推薦簡報的投影片 10 到 12。讓我們從每次負載的收入開始。第四季每負載收入降幅再次放緩，年減 20%。與第三季相比，年減幅改善了 600 個基點。

As we discussed last quarter, to get a better view of our consolidated year-over-year price declines on a per load basis, it's important to consider the impacts of length of haul, mix and changes in fuel prices. When normalizing for those items, revenue per load was down at approximately low teen’s percentage on a year-over-year basis, in line with the broader market. This decline also improved versus last quarter's mid-teens year-over-year decline. We generated a strong gross margin percentage across all different parts of the freight cycle by leveraging our proprietary technology and pricing algorithms to procure capacity at better than market rates.

正如我們上季度討論的那樣，為了更好地了解按負載計算的綜合價格同比下降情況，重要的是要考慮運輸距離、組合和燃油價格變化的影響。當這些項目正常化時，每次負載的收入比去年同期下降了大約青少年的百分比，與更廣泛的市場一致。與上季十幾歲左右的同比下降相比，這一下降也有所改善。透過利用我們的專有技術和定價演算法以高於市場價格的價格採購運力，我們在貨運週期的所有不同部分都產生了強勁的毛利率。

Let's move to slide 11 and discuss brokerage monthly gross margin trends. There are points in the cycle, including the current environment where market conditions limit our ability to bring down transportation costs. While we leverage our proprietary best-in-class technology and our people to generate a strong gross margin, our actions cannot fully offset changing market conditions. In fact, transportation costs have recently moved higher given that, in many cases, carrier operating costs are at or above current spot rates. This is best demonstrated through the continuation of carrier exits in the industry, which have occurred every month since October of 2022.

讓我們轉到投影片 11，討論經紀業務的每月毛利率趨勢。這個週期中有一些要點，包括目前的市場環境限制了我們降低運輸成本的能力。雖然我們利用專有的一流技術和員工創造了強勁的毛利率，但我們的行動無法完全抵消不斷變化的市場條件。事實上，由於在許多情況下承運人的營運成本等於或高於目前的即期費率，運輸成本最近已經上升。自 2022 年 10 月以來，該行業每月都有運營商退出，這最能證明這一點。

The carrier exit rate accelerated at the end of December, and we anticipate the acceleration to continue throughout 2024. In fact, in the month of January, the average weekly carrier exit rate was approximately 30% above full year 2023 levels. To give you some additional color, RXO active network carriers declined approximately 5% sequentially. While these carriers hauled less than 1% of our volume over the last 90 days, it serves as a good proxy for broader market conditions.

12 月底，營運商退出率加速，我們預計這種加速趨勢將持續到 2024 年。事實上，1 月份業者平均每週退出率比 2023 年全年水準高出約 30%。為了給您一些額外的信息，RXO 活躍網路營運商環比下降了約 5%。雖然這些承運人在過去 90 天內的運輸量不到我們的 1%，但它可以很好地反映更廣泛的市場狀況。

Moving to brokerage gross margin trends in the quarter. As we discussed last quarter, we saw some softening during the month of October, but our gross profit per load remained resilient. However, margin decreased as the quarter progressed as weakness in the freight market persisted. The national load-to-truck ratio averaged 2:1 during the quarter and for many weeks, it was below 2:1, levels not seen since earlier in 2023.

轉向本季經紀毛利率趨勢。正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們在 10 月看到了一些疲軟，但我們的每負載毛利潤仍然保持彈性。然而，隨著本季的進展，由於貨運市場持續疲軟，利潤率有所下降。本季全國裝載卡車比平均為 2:1，並且連續多周低於 2:1，這是自 2023 年初以來的最高水準。

For context, the load-to-truck ratio has averaged approximately 4:1 for the last five years, and spot volumes typically emerge around 6:1 to 7:1. Tensor rejection rates were relatively unchanged at about 4% in the quarter, special projects wound down into November and December, and it was a muted peak season.

就背景而言，過去五年的平均裝載與卡車比率約為 4:1，現貨量通常約為 6:1 至 7:1。本季張量拒絕率相對保持不變，約 4​​%，特殊項目逐漸減少到 11 月和 12 月，這是一個淡季的旺季。

Market conditions also limited our ability to bring down the buy side, and we saw the typical seasonal capacity squeeze at the end of Q4. This margin pressure worsened in January when compared to December and was further amplified by inclement weather in certain regions.

市場狀況也限制了我們打壓買方的能力，我們在第四季末看到了典型的季節性產能緊張。與 12 月相比，1 月的利潤率壓力進一步惡化，並且因某些地區的惡劣天氣而進一步加劇。

The load-to-truck ratio sharply increased above 3:1 at the end of December and sustain the move higher into January. To help put that in perspective, when comparing January to December, our gross profit per load percentage decline in weather impacted states was 2 to 3 times the amount when compared to volumes in states not impacted by weather, entirely driven by an increase in cost of purchase transportation.

12 月底，載車比大幅升至 3:1 以上，並在 1 月繼續保持這一上升趨勢。為了幫助人們正確看待這一點，在比較1 月和12 月時，我們在受天氣影響的州的每負載百分比下降的毛利是不受天氣影響的州的2 到3 倍，這完全是由於成本增加所致。購買交通。

The declines in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the country were the most acute. While our book of business is by design largely contractual, we can pivot quickly to changing market conditions. This model has worked well for us for more than a decade, delivering above industry growth and profitability. During the previous freight market recovery, RXO was able to quickly respond to service our customers' needs and our spot mix increased significantly in just one quarter.

該國中西部和東南部地區的下降最為嚴重。雖然我們的業務在設計上主要是合約性的，但我們可以快速適應不斷變化的市場條件。十多年來，這種模式一直運作良好，實現了高於行業的成長和獲利能力。在先前的貨運市場復甦期間，RXO 能夠快速回應客戶的服務需求，並且我們的現貨組合在短短一個季度內大幅增加。

Let's go to slide 12 and briefly look at RXO's brokerage gross profit per load on a quarterly basis. Given the strong month of October, RXO's Q4 2023 gross profit per load increased sequentially despite the gross margin squeeze in the quarter.

讓我們轉到投影片 12，簡要了解 RXO 每季的經紀毛利潤。鑑於 10 月的強勁表現，儘管本季毛利率受到擠壓，但 RXO 2023 年第四季每負載毛利仍較上季成長。

I'd now like to look forward and give you some more color on the first quarter outlook that Jamie provided. Given recent volatile market conditions, I'll be giving a more granular view of our Q1 expectations, which is typically our seasonally weakest quarter.

現在，我想展望未來，並為您提供有關傑米提供的第一季前景的更多資訊。考慮到最近波動的市場狀況，我將對我們第一季的預期給出更具體的看法，這通常是我們季節性最弱的季度。

Let's start with volume. Our brokerage sales pipeline remains robust. More specifically, our late-stage pipeline is up 24% year over year and up 90% on a two-year stack. This gives us confidence that we will again grow brokerage volume on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. While January brokerage volumes still increased on a year-over-year basis, we did see year-over-year volume growth moderate when compared to the fourth quarter. More specifically, we grew January brokerage volumes by approximately 8% year over year.

讓我們從音量開始。我們的經紀銷售管道仍然強勁。更具體地說，我們的後期研發管線年增 24%，兩年內成長 90%。這讓我們有信心第一季的經紀業務量將再次年增。儘管 1 月的經紀交易量仍同比增長，但我們確實看到與第四季度相比，同比交易量增長放緩。更具體地說，我們 1 月的經紀業務量比去年同期成長了約 8%。

We're assuming first quarter year-over-year brokerage volumes will grow, but at a slower pace than the fourth quarter. Brokerage revenue per load trends are encouraging, and we expect the moderation in year-over-year revenue per load declines in the first quarter. The first quarter will be the third consecutive quarter where revenue per load declines have improved on a year-over-year basis.

我們假設第一季的經紀業務量將年增，但成長速度將慢於第四季。每負載經紀收入趨勢令人鼓舞，我們預期第一季每負載收入年減幅度將放緩。第一季將是連續第三個季度每負載收入較去年同期下降有所改善。

Moving to brokerage gross margin, which I mentioned moved lower throughout the fourth quarter. We expect Q1 brokerage gross margin to be approximately 12% to 14%, solid performance given the difficult market dynamics at this part of the freight cycle. While gross profit per load declines have eased over the last few weeks, we're continuing to monitor market conditions. From a complementary services perspective, we expect typical negative Q1 seasonality, including an absorption of fixed costs on a lower revenue base in Last Mile.

轉向經紀毛利率，我提到整個第四季都在下降。我們預計第一季經紀毛利率約為 12% 至 14%，考慮到貨運週期這一部分的市場動態困難，業績穩健。雖然過去幾週每負載毛利的下降有所放緩，但我們仍在繼續監控市場狀況。從補充服務的角度來看，我們預計第一季會出現典型的負季節性，包括在最後一哩較低的收入基礎上吸收固定成本。

Putting it all together, we expect RXO's first quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $12 million and $18 million in the first quarter. If buy rates cool as weather patterns normalize, and the business seasonally improves into February and March, we are likely to come in at the midpoint or high end of our adjusted EBITDA range. If the recent margin squeeze within brokerage persists, we are likely to come in at the lower end of the range. Based on our current view of the broader macroeconomic data, industry-wide carrier exit rates and what we are hearing from our customers, our current base case is a market recovery in the second half of the year.

綜上所述，我們預計 RXO 第一季調整後 EBITDA 將在 1,200 萬美元至 1,800 萬美元之間。如果隨著天氣模式正常化，購買率下降，且業務在 2 月和 3 月季節性改善，我們可能會處於調整後 EBITDA 範圍的中點或高端。如果近期券商內部的利潤緊縮持續存在，我們可能會處於該區間的下限。根據我們目前對更廣泛的宏觀經濟數據、全行業運營商退出率以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的信息的看法，我們目前的基本情況是市場在下半年復甦。

It's important to differentiate between the macro economy, which remains reasonably healthy in the freight cycle. Consumer confidence is increasing, inflation is moderating and goods demand relative to services has stabilized. However, there is still too much trucking capacity relative to demand negatively impacting the freight market. We believe the rate of carrier exits is the largest variable affecting the timing of the freight recovery.

區分宏觀經濟很重要，宏觀經濟在貨運週期中仍然相當健康。消費者信心正在增強，通貨膨脹正在放緩，相對於服務的商品需求已經穩定。然而，相對於需求而言，貨運能力仍然過多，對貨運市場產生負面影響。我們認為承運商退出率是影響貨運恢復時間的最大變數。

In summary, we're continuing to gain market share profitably with another quarter of strong brokerage volume growth and gross margin. We're optimizing our cost structure while strategically investing in the business and have a playbook to deliver rapid earnings growth when the market inflects. We're operating in a prolonged soft rate market, but we're making the right strategic moves to position us well for the long term.

總而言之，我們將繼續以有利可圖的方式贏得市場份額，經紀業務量和毛利率又一個季度強勁增長。我們正在優化成本結構，同時對業務進行策略性投資，並制定了在市場變化時實現盈利快速增長的策略。我們在長期的軟利率市場中運營，但我們正在採取正確的策略舉措，以使我們在長期內處於有利地位。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

這樣，我會將其轉交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

Great, good morning. Jamie, I think you said you ended the year with $5 million cash on hand, and that was slightly above target. Just wondering why you're running on such thin cash? And then just thinking about what Jared just talked about and Drew mentioned for the first quarter, $12 million to $18 million of adjusted EBITDA implies maybe another $8 million of operating cash flow and your CapEx seems to be on $10 million to $15 million. So it looks like you might be negative on cash again. Can you maybe walk us through the rollout there and then the thoughts on cash?

太好了，早安。傑米，我想你說過你年底手頭上有 500 萬美元現金，這略高於目標。只是想知道為什麼你的現金這麼少？然後想想Jared 剛才談到的和Drew 提到的第一季的內容，1200 萬至1800 萬美元的調整後EBITDA 意味著可能還有800 萬美元的營運現金流，而你的資本支出似乎為1000萬至1500 萬美元。所以看起來你可能再次對現金持負面態度。您能否向我們介紹那裡的推廣以及對現金的想法？

Yes. Ken, this is Jamie. Yes, so cash, remember in the quarter, in November, we paid down our term loan. So we used $100 million of our cash is on the balance sheet of Q4 to pay down term loans. So that was the big use of cash. From an operational standpoint, we finished the six-month trailing at about a negative $2 million adjusted free cash flow.

是的。肯，這是傑米。是的，所以現金，請記住在 11 月的季度中，我們還清了定期貸款。因此，我們使用了第四季度資產負債表上的 1 億美元現金來償還定期貸款。這就是現金的大量用途。從營運角度來看，我們六個月的調整後自由現金流約為負 200 萬美元。

If you remember, in second quarter, we had a large approximately $15 million early receipt that really bumped up our conversion rate in the first half of the year that really calls the third quarter and therefore, the six-month period to be a little bit lower. If you take that into account, we're at about a 22% conversion. We actually -- the cash balance of $5 million, we had a $5 million cash balance, $5 million usage of the revolver, that was actually slightly better than we had anticipated being based on our outlook 90 days ago. So we were actually pleased with where we landed for the quarter.

如果您還記得，在第二季度，我們收到了大約1500 萬美元的大筆提前收款，這確實提高了我們上半年的轉換率，這實際上稱為第三季度，因此，六個月期間會有點降低。如果考慮到這一點，我們的轉換率約為 22%。實際上，我們的現金餘額為 500 萬美元，我們有 500 萬美元的現金餘額，左輪手槍的使用量為 500 萬美元，這實際上比我們根據 90 天前的前景所預期的要好一些。因此，我們實際上對本季的業績感到滿意。

If you look at lifetime to date, Ken, going back to the spin, we're over 50% conversion rate of EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow. For year to date, we're about 48%. So both of those metrics fall right in line with our 40% to 60% target that we believe is our long-term cross-cycle conversion. If you kind of go over to the first quarter, to your question about where we think we'll land a $12 million to $18 million range should put us somewhere in the neighborhood of a usage of cash of about $2 million to $3 million on an adjusted free cash flow basis, taking into account all other cash items, primarily, which will be some restructuring costs there. We should be in the $10 million to maybe $15 million usage in the first quarter.

如果你看看迄今為止的生命週期，肯，回到旋轉，我們的 EBITDA 到調整後自由現金流的轉換率超過 50%。今年迄今為止，我們的比例約為 48%。因此，這兩個指標都符合我們 40% 至 60% 的目標，我們認為這是我們的長期跨週期轉換率。如果你回顧一下第一季度，關於我們認為我們將在哪裡獲得 1200 萬至 1800 萬美元的範圍的問題，應該會讓我們在大約 200 萬至 300 萬美元的現金使用量附近的某個位置。調整後來的自由現金流基礎上，主要考慮到所有其他現金項目，這裡面會有一些重組成本。第一季我們的使用量應該在 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元之間。

To your point about CapEx, we are spending -- we guided to about $40 million to $50 million of CapEx. That's more in line with our long-term target of just over -- just at or over 1% of our revenues. So overall, we actually felt really good about our cash flow for the quarter. As we outlook, the first quarter based on that range, we see cash being in that ballpark.

就您對資本支出的觀點而言，我們正在支出——我們指導資本支出約為 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元。這更符合我們略高於收入的 1% 的長期目標。總的來說，我們實際上對本季的現金流感覺非常好。正如我們對基於該範圍的第一季的展望，我們認為現金處於該範圍內。

If I could -- a follow-up. I guess just talking about your gross margin, Drew, looking at the steep drop-off of margins, I guess, is there something that is accelerating downward in the business in the first quarter from where you ended. I know you talked about a lot of things, weather and everything in the fourth quarter, lack of peak, but it seems like the step down is beyond economic and seasonal press, is there increased competition that you're seeing that's accelerating that? Maybe just talk about that outlook a little bit. Thanks.

如果可以的話——後續行動。我想只是談論你的毛利率，德魯，看看利潤率的急劇下降，我想，第一季的業務是否比你結束時加速下滑。我知道您談到了很多事情，包括天氣和第四季度的所有事情，缺乏高峰，但似乎下降超出了經濟和季節性新聞的範圍，您是否看到競爭加劇而加速了這種情況？也許只是談談這個前景。謝謝。

Yes. No, absolutely. Thank you, Ken. This is Drew. So if you look at what we saw in the first quarter, typically, the first two weeks of January, you see pressure on your gross profit per load and your gross profit percentage. We saw that, but it actually was worse than what we anticipated due to whether Jared hit on in his prepared commentary, that the Midwest and the Southeast, specifically those gross profit percentages were down 2 to 3 times more than what the rest of the country was. So this was largely driven by weather. There is also the cost of purchase trends.

是的。不，絕對是。謝謝你，肯。這是德魯。因此，如果你看看我們在第一季（通常是一月的前兩週）看到的情況，你會發現每次負載的毛利和毛利百分比面臨壓力。我們看到了這一點，但實際上比我們預期的更糟糕，因為賈里德是否在他準備好的評論中提到，中西部和東南部，特別是這些毛利潤百分比比全國其他地區下降了2到3 倍曾是。所以這很大程度是由天氣驅動的。還有購買成本的趨勢。

We had hit the bottom of where the carriers were operating at, so there was no room to pull down carrier costs, and we're operating in what is largely a contractual volume. There's not a lot of spot loads out there in the market today to where spot gross profit per load can help offset that.

我們已經觸及承運商營運的谷底，因此沒有空間降低承運商成本，而且我們的營運量基本上是合約量。目前市場上沒有太多現貨裝載，每批現貨毛利可以幫助抵消這一點。

But again, if you look at where we finished for the quarter, I think our gross margin percentage stacks up well for where we finished in the industry. And I think that we'll continue to see best-in-class gross margins because of the investments that we've made in our technology.

但同樣，如果你看看我們本季的業績，我認為我們的毛利率百分比與我們在行業中的業績相當。我認為，由於我們對技術的投資，我們將繼續看到一流的毛利率。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yes, hi. I was wondering you sort of talked about expectation for a second half recovery. Can you maybe give us some thoughts on the cycle recovery? How is it going to look? What still has to happen? Will -- does that include net revenue or gross margins starting to expand again? Just some color on that and sort of the comfort level in the second half. Thanks.

是的，嗨。我想知道您是否談到了對下半年復甦的期望。您能給我們一些關於週期恢復的想法嗎？看起來怎麼樣？還需要發生什麼事？這是否包括淨收入或毛利率開始再次擴大？只是一些顏色和下半場的舒適度。謝謝。

Yes. So Jordan, two big things have to happen for the back half recovery. The first is the overall macro. If you look at what's happened in the macro, GDP sitting around 3.3%. Inflation continues to ease. The job market reports have been good. So we need the market to continue to be in a stable environment.

是的。所以喬丹，為了後半場的恢復必定會發生兩件大事。首先是整體宏觀。如果你看看宏觀發生的事情，GDP 約為 3.3%。通貨膨脹繼續緩解。就業市場報告表現良好。所以我們需要市場繼續處於穩定的環境。

The second thing and the biggest thing that we're watching right now is capacity exits. And as Jared said, we've seen capacities exit the market every month since October of 2022. And in the month of January, we saw them run at 30% higher than what all of 2023 came out at. So we need to continue to see capacity exits across. There's still a good bit more capacity in the market than what there was even at pre-COVID. So those two big things have to happen for the back half of the recovery. That is our base case. That's what we're anticipating happening. And when you look at that, what the base case implies is that you start to see revenue, gross profit per load EBITDA turning positive during that time frame.

我們現在關注的第二件事也是最重要的事情是產能退出。正如 Jared 所說，自 2022 年 10 月以來，我們每個月都會看到產能退出市場。1 月份，我們看到它們的運行速度比 2023 年全年的運行速度高出 30%。因此，我們需要繼續看到產能退出。市場上的容量仍然比新冠疫情爆發前要多一些。因此，在復甦的後半段，這兩件大事必定發生。這是我們的基本情況。這就是我們期待發生的事情。當你看到這一點時，基本情況意味著你開始看到收入、每負載毛利 EBITDA 在此時間範圍內轉為正數。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Maybe following up on Ken's question to start. Could you talk a little bit about even seasonality in the first quarter? Maybe what you see from January to March, I know March can be a pretty big inflection? So maybe just talk about kind of thoughts on normal seasonality and what the quarter and how that relates to your guidance?

也許可以從跟進肯的問題開始。您能否談談第一季的季節性因素？也許你從一月到三月看到的情況，我知道三月可能是一個相當大的轉折？因此，也許只是談談對正常季節性的想法以及季度是什麼以及這與您的指導有何關係？

Yes. So typically, you do see Q1 get better throughout the month -- I mean, throughout the quarter. And that's what we're anticipating in the guide that we gave you from $12 million to $18 million in EBITDA for Q1. January, there was pressure on gross profit per load. As we've gotten into February, we've seen in this first little bit of February, we've started to see gross profit per load trend better than what it was in the month of January. It's not back to where it was in October and November, but it has started the path to recovery, which is why we were able to give you the range that we did of $12 million to $18 million.

是的。因此，通常情況下，您確實會看到第一季整個月都在變得更好——我的意思是，整個季度。這就是我們在指南中預計的第一季 EBITDA 為 1200 萬美元到 1800 萬美元的預期。1月份，單位負荷毛利面臨壓力。隨著進入二月，我們在二月的前一點點看到，我們開始看到每負載毛利的趨勢比一月份更好。雖然還沒有回到 10 月和 11 月的水平，但已經開始復甦，這就是為什麼我們能夠為您提供 1200 萬至 1800 萬美元的範圍。

That's helpful. Appreciate it. And then I think you noted and have shown that in the past, you are able to adapt very quickly on the cycle turns and move your mix between contracts and spot. Given the cycle has really been probably not like any cycle we've seen before. Can you talk about your ability either to not be able to move from contract to spot as quickly as you have in the past? Or what might limit your ability to move as quickly, potentially if this is a slower recovery or faster recovery? Just how should we think about how the environment could possibly inflect?

這很有幫助。欣賞它。然後我認為您注意到並已經表明，在過去，您能夠非常快速地適應週期變化，並在合約和現貨之間移動您的組合。鑑於這個週期確實可能與我們之前見過的任何週期都不一樣。你能否談談你是否無法像過去那樣快速地從合約轉到位置？或者，如果恢復較慢或較快，什麼可能會限制您快速行動的能力？我們該如何思考環境可能如何改變？

Yes. So the recovery will largely depend on the spot market, it will largely depend on what's happening in the overall market. That's not something you can -- as a business, it's harder to shift from spot to contract, is more of looking at what's going on in the market and making sure that you're in the pole position as spot loads as project as many bids start to happen, you're in the pole position for customers to reach out to you, and we're confident that we're in the pole position. If you look at the market, I mean, in Q4 load-to-truck ratio went down to around 2:1.

是的。因此，復甦將在很大程度上取決於現貨市場，也將在很大程度上取決於整個市場的情況。這不是你能做到的——作為一家企業，從現貨轉向合約更困難，更多的是關注市場上正在發生的事情，並確保你在現貨負載和項目盡可能多的投標中處於領先地位當當這種情況開始發生時，您就處於客戶與您聯繫的最佳位置，我們有信心處於領先位置。如果你看看市場，我的意思是，第四季的裝載與卡車比率下降到 2:1 左右。

Tender rejections were around 4%. That's not a market that's conducive to being a heavy spot market. Now did we see spot loads go up sequentially? Yes, but it was minimal. Our spot gross profit per load was trending ahead of our contractual gross profit per load. But it's not a robust spot market and the measures that we watch are load-to-truck ratio, tender rejections, carrier exits and what we're hearing from our customers. And our customers are still telling us that they will lean on us for projects. They'll lean on us for spot loads as the market does start to tighten.

投標拒絕率約為 4%。這不是一個有利於成為大量現貨市場的市場。現在我們看到現貨負載依序上升了嗎？是的，但這是最小的。我們的每批現貨毛利潤趨勢領先每批合約毛利。但這並不是一個強勁的現貨市場，我們關注的指標是裝載卡車比、投標拒絕、承運人退出以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的情況。我們的客戶仍然告訴我們，他們將在專案上依賴我們。當市場確實開始收緊時，他們將依靠我們來獲得現貨負載。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

Hey good morning guys. And thanks for taking my question. And I hope this doesn't come off the wrong way, but you referenced numerous times in the presentation this quarter and I think in past quarters, too, about continued profitable growth in the brokerage business. But obviously, like the bottom line is adjusted EBITDA keep coming in lower. I mean, I think we're back to maybe the lowest even approach where we were in early 2020. So help put in context that comment about growing profitable loads relative to consolidated results. I appreciate that.

嘿大家早安。感謝您提出我的問題。我希望這不會出現錯誤，但您在本季度的演示中多次提到，我認為在過去的幾個季度中，經紀業務的持續盈利增長也是如此。但顯然，隨著底線調整，息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 持續走低。我的意思是，我認為我們可能回到了 2020 年初的最低水準。因此，請協助將有關相對於合併業績不斷增長的獲利負載的評論放在上下文中。我很感激。

Yes. Absolutely, Bran. The biggest thing that we're looking at is how we're operating versus the industry versus in the environment that we're in. And so when you look at what we're seeing right now, we're putting up best-in-class volume growth, and we're doing that with best-in-class margins. Now in the bottom part of the cycle, you do feel pressure on your gross profit per load. Gross profit per load is one of the biggest levers that we watch for where we're going to go long-term.

是的。當然，布蘭。我們關注的最重要的事情是我們如何在產業和我們所處的環境中運作。因此，當你看看我們現在所看到的情況時，我們正在實現一流的銷售成長，並且我們正在以一流的利潤率做到這一點。現在，在周期的底部，您確實感受到了每次負載毛利的壓力。每次負荷的毛利是我們長期關注的最大槓桿之一。

So the pressure that you see on the downward -- you see the good side of that on the upswing that gross profit per load can bring to you. So for us, we're confident that we're making the right investments that allow us to operate at the best gross margin percentage with strong volume growth.

因此，您在下行壓力中看到的壓力 - 您在每次負載毛利可以給您帶來的上升中看到了好的一面。因此，對我們來說，我們相信我們正在做出正確的投資，使我們能夠以最佳的毛利率百分比運作並實現強勁的銷售成長。

Okay. Appreciate that, Drew. And then, Jamie, on the cost side, I think you talked about continuing to optimize the cost structure, maybe Jared made that comment, but what's your objective for cost in 2024? And if you could provide any directional guidance, that would be helpful.

好的。很欣賞這一點，德魯。然後，Jamie，在成本方面，我認為您談到了繼續優化成本結構，也許 Jared 發表了這樣的評論，但是您 2024 年的成本目標是什麼？如果您能提供任何方向性指導，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. So we expect to take out at least $25 million in 2024. Last year, we were able to take out about $32 million of annualized savings on OpEx, not all of that has found its way into the P&L because some of that was the latter part of the year. So you'll see some pickup from the animalization of that this year. But $25 million -- at least $25 million for this year. Since then, we've been working very aggressively to optimize our cost structure throughout. We've looked at all processes.

是的。因此，我們預計 2024 年至少拿出 2500 萬美元。去年，我們在營運支出上節省了約 3,200 萬美元的年化成本，但並非所有這些都計入了損益表，因為其中一些是在今年下半年節省的。所以你會看到今年動物化的一些進展。但 2500 萬美元——今年至少 2500 萬美元。從那時起，我們一直非常積極地努力優化我們的成本結構。我們已經查看了所有流程。

We've looked at all the roles of vendor relationships to make sure that we're running as effectively and efficiently as possible. From a cost standpoint, we really want to set ourselves up so that we are optimally structured cost-wise. So when we see a market inflection, it just gives us significant operating leverage and flow through to the bottom line when gross profit per load recovers.

我們研究了供應商關係的所有角色，以確保我們盡可能有效和有效率地運作。從成本的角度來看，我們確實希望自己能夠在成本上達到最佳結構。因此，當我們看到市場轉折點時，它只會為我們帶來巨大的營運槓桿，並在每負載毛利恢復時流向利潤。

Allison Poliniak, Wells Fargo.

艾莉森‧波利尼亞克，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning. Just on the cost side of it, what I'm implying is -- or what I'm hearing is it sounds like it's a more structural cost reduction there versus variable? Or is it a bit of a mix? Just trying to understand those costs out for 2024.

早安.就成本方面而言，我的意思是——或者我聽到的是，與可變成本相比，這聽起來像是一種更具結構性的成本削減？還是有點混合？只是想了解 2024 年的這些成本。

Yes. It's primarily structural. There will be some variable, but it's predominantly structural, Allison. I mean, obviously, as the market grows and we continue to grow, we'll have to invest in the right places around the structure, but that $25 million is predominantly structural.

是的。它主要是結構性的。會有一些變量，但主要是結構性的，艾利森。我的意思是，顯然，隨著市場的成長和我們的持續成長，我們必須在結構周圍的正確位置進行投資，但這 2500 萬美元主要是結構性的。

Got it. And then, Drew, you had talked about the contracts and the profitability of those contracts when it accelerate. Could you talk about the profitability of those adds versus maybe, say, a year ago? Is it better, the same? Just any thoughts there. Thanks.

知道了。然後，德魯，您談到了合約以及這些合約在加速時的盈利能力。您能談談這些新增產品與一年前相比的獲利能力嗎？一樣嗎，更好嗎？只是有任何想法。謝謝。

Yes. So if you look at it, the gross profit per load is down from where it was a year ago which is what gives -- again, what you see in the $12 million to $18 million number is the impact that gross profit per load has on the business. And you'll see or feel the upside of that as the market starts to recover. For every dollar the gross profit per load recovers is a meaningful impact to the P&L.

是的。因此，如果你看一下，你會發現每次裝載的毛利比一年前有所下降，這就是為什麼——同樣，你在1200 萬美元到1800 萬美元的數字中看到的是每次裝載的毛利對這生意。當市場開始復甦時，你會看到或感受到它的好處。每次恢復的每一美元毛利都會對損益產生重大影響。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

史考特‧施內伯格，奧本海默。

Thanks very much. Good morning. I guess if we could start out managed transportation, it sounds like a lot of the softness there was in automotive. So I'm curious if you could just talk managed transportation and brokerage about the end markets, what you're seeing across the end markets. If you could elaborate on the automotive weakness. And then you mentioned some wins in managed transportation synergistic with brokerage that will impact 2024 or onboard in 2024, if you could touch on that, too, please?

非常感謝。早安.我想如果我們可以開始管理運輸，聽起來汽車領域有很多軟性。因此，我很好奇您是否可以談論終端市場的管理運輸和經紀業務，以及您在終端市場上看到的情況。如果您能詳細說明汽車的弱點。然後您提到了託管運輸與經紀業務協同方面取得的一些成果，這些成果將影響 2024 年或 2024 年的船上情況，您是否也能談談這一點？

Yes. So obviously, we're impacted by the strikes with the UAW. And I would say that things came back online slower than what we would have anticipated. The major OEMs did a fantastic job of preplanning how they were routing shipments to make sure that they had enough inventory at sites as they were starting back. So there wasn't as many of the expedite just-in-time shipments is what we would expect going in.

是的。顯然，我們受到了美國汽車工人聯合會罷工的影響。我想說的是，事情恢復正常的速度比我們預期的要慢。主要的原始設備製造商在預先規劃如何運送貨物方面做得非常出色，以確保他們在重新開始時在現場有足夠的庫存。因此，並沒有像我們預期的那樣進行如此多的加急準時發貨。

As far as the wins that we're having in managed transportation, we've had a number of wins in the three specifically in the managed transportation expedite business. That's been a leading position for us for a long time. Customers know that we understand the importance of time-critical freight and what it does to their supply chains. We've been a trusted partner in that for more than two decades. So we think that we'll continue to take share there. The overall managed transportation business, that pipeline is strong. We've got a number of large deals that are in the works right now that can potentially move the ball forward in a big way.

就我們在管理運輸方面取得的勝利而言，我們在三個方面取得了許多勝利，特別是在管理運輸加急業務方面。長期以來，這一直是我們的領先地位。客戶知道我們了解時間緊迫的貨運的重要性及其對供應鏈的影響。二十多年來，我們一直是這方面值得信賴的合作夥伴。因此，我們認為我們將繼續在那裡佔據份額。整體管理的運輸業務，管道業務強勁。我們目前正在進行許多大型交易，這些交易有可能大幅推動進展。

It is just kind of along the lines of the cost question theme that's been going. But you mentioned some investments to cross-border capabilities, GenAI in sales, increased protection, maybe just touch on those. But I think the bigger question is, how are -- in this environment, how are you weighing your investments as it's not an optimal time, but you guys perpetually push the business forward with your IT and others. So just curious how you're looking at the investments in this time period? Thanks.

這有點符合一直以來的成本問題主題。但您提到了對跨境能力的一些投資、GenAI 的銷售、增強的保護，也許只是觸及這些。但我認為更大的問題是，在這種環境下，您如何權衡自己的投資，因為這不是最佳時機，但您將與 IT 和其他人一起推動業務向前發展。那麼只是好奇您如何看待這段時期的投資呢？謝謝。

Yes, I'll start with that, the second part of your question, Scott, with how we look at it. The first thing is we look at ROIC and what's the return on invested capital that we're putting in. The second thing that I would say is for everything that we do, we look at how it will impact volume, how it will impact our overall margins and how it will impact us as employees? Will it make us more productive and allow us to do more loads per day per head? And that's a metric that we've continued to move forward. So we look at the business for the long-term. We're not -- while we're optimizing our costs right now, we look at the business at where we're headed for the long term.

是的，我將從你問題的第二部分開始，斯科特，我們如何看待它。首先，我們查看投資報酬率以及我們投入的投資資本的報酬率是多少。我要說的第二件事是，對於我們所做的一切，我們都會考慮它將如何影響銷量，它將如何影響我們的整體利潤以及它將如何影響我們作為員工？它會提高我們的工作效率並讓我們每人每天完成更多的工作量嗎？這是我們不斷推進的一個指標。因此，我們著眼於長期業務。我們不是——雖然我們現在正在優化成本，但我們著眼於業務的長期發展方向。

You mentioned some of the specific investments that we've had down at the border, down at Laredo that was a huge deal for us. If you look at where we're positioned at Laredo, we're right at the World Trade Bridge. There's a lot of freight that goes through there. It's the largest crossing for cross-border shipments north and south bound. And if you look at -- most recently, we announced a GenAI tool that allows our customers to move loads more efficiently on cross-border freight and it allows our carriers to have complete tracking of where their trailers are at, at our different facilities.

您提到了我們在邊境、拉雷多的一些具體投資，這對我們來說意義重大。如果您看看我們在拉雷多的位置，您會發現我們就在世界貿易大橋上。有大量貨物經過那裡。它是南北向跨境貨運的最大過境點。如果你看一下——最近，我們發布了一款 GenAI 工具，它使我們的客戶能夠更有效地進行跨境貨運，並且使我們的承運商能夠完全追蹤他們的拖車在我們不同設施中的位置。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

Good morning everyone. I think you said in the press release that you're seeing a strong pipeline of new business. Can you give us a little more detail there, kind of which end markets, what kind of customers? And also, where is this pipeline coming from? Are these customers who are ramping up and kind of getting revved up to start restocking soon? Or kind of what's the message you're hearing from them?

大家，早安。我想您在新聞稿中說過，您看到了強大的新業務管道。您能給我們更多詳細資訊嗎？終端市場是什麼樣的，客戶是什麼樣的？另外，這條管道從哪裡來？這些客戶是否正在加速並準備很快開始補貨？還是你從他們那裡聽到了什麼訊息？

Hey Ravi, good morning. It's Jared. So to your point, the pipeline does remain quite strong, up late-stage pipeline, specifically within brokerage is up about over 20% year over year and on a two-year stack, it's up almost 90%. So I think that speaks to just the broad-based idiosyncratic share gains that we are having with strong margins as a company by that. It's pretty broad-based in nature in terms of what we're seeing within brokerage in the quarter. All of our major verticals grew on a year-over-year basis, including retail and e-commerce and industrial despite being in a broader industrial economy recession.

嘿拉維，早安。是賈里德。因此，就您而言，管道確實仍然相當強勁，後期管道，特別是在經紀業務中，同比增長約 20% 以上，在兩年的堆疊中，增長了近 90%。因此，我認為這恰恰說明了我們作為一家公司所擁有的廣泛的特殊股票收益，並且利潤率很高。就我們本季在經紀業務中看到的情況而言，它本質上是相當廣泛的。儘管處於更廣泛的工業經濟衰退之中，但我們所有的主要垂直行業都實現了同比增長，包括零售、電子商務和工業。

So I think that it speaks to -- you look at RXO post-spin, us being even more focused on our customers, us allocating capital more effectively, really using this time to ensure that we're delivering the services that our customers want. It's pretty broad-based in nature, and I think it's coming through in the pipeline.

所以我認為這說明了——你看看 RXO 分拆後，我們更加關注我們的客戶，我們更有效地分配資本，真正利用這段時間來確保我們提供客戶想要的服務。它本質上具有相當廣泛的基礎，我認為它正在醞釀中。

Got it. And maybe as a follow-up, kind of going back to your previous response on investments. So are you saying the [Indiscernible] that your CapEx plans are reasonably locked? Or is there much flexibility there? I'm just wondering if the downturn lasts longer or deeper than you guys think, especially in the first half of this year. Or can you push back some of that CapEx to the back half of the year to preserved equity?

知道了。也許作為後續行動，有點回到你之前對投資的回應。那麼您是說[音訊不清晰]您的資本支出計劃已合理鎖定嗎？或者那裡有很大的靈活性嗎？我只是想知道經濟低迷是否會比你們想像的持續更長或更嚴重，特別是在今年上半年。或者您可以將部分資本支出推遲到今年下半年以保留股本嗎？

Yes, Ravi, this is Jamie. That CapEx for the majority of the spend is always flexible. We've got a plan. We're working to plan. But for the most part, it's very flexible. So we could defer if needed.

是的，拉維，這是傑米。大部分支出的資本支出始終是靈活的。我們有一個計劃。我們正在努力製定計劃。但在大多數情況下，它非常靈活。所以如果需要的話我們可以延後。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey thanks good morning. So it sounds like 1Q is more about weather than the real inflection in the market, and you're assuming that's more of a second half recovery. Sort of in that backdrop as your base case assumption, what's a typical ballpark of how to think about 1Q as a percentage of a year? I'm just trying to sort of understand are we -- do we think EBITDA grows this year or not? Any color?

嘿謝謝早上好。因此，聽起來第一季更多的是天氣因素，而不是市場的真正轉折點，你認為這更像是下半年的復甦。在這種背景下，作為您的基本案例假設，如何將第一季視為一年的百分比的典型大概是什麼？我只是想了解一下我們是否認為今年 EBITDA 會成長？任何顏色？

Hey Scott, it's Jared good morning. So when you look at the ongoing market dynamics, to your point, weather has had an acute impact in the month of January, and that's impacting Q1 as we said in the prepared remarks, you look at some of the regions in the country is severely impacted by weather. Gross margin per load was impacted by 2x to 3x that of other regions.

嘿，史考特，我是賈里德，早安。因此，當您查看當前的市場動態時，就您的觀點而言，天氣對1 月份產生了嚴重影響，這對第一季產生了影響，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，您會看到該國的一些地區受到嚴重影響受天氣影響。每負載毛利率受到的影響是其他地區的 2 至 3 倍。

So I think that was acute when you talk about how the quarter progressed, we're expecting to progress, as Drew just mentioned in one of the other responses, we have seen some relief in the last week or so in terms of gross profit per load. It's still early. We want to see whether or not buy rates cool. When you look at the full year, our base case right now is for a second half recovery.

So I think that was acute when you talk about how the quarter progressed, we're expecting to progress, as Drew just mentioned in one of the other responses, we have seen some relief in the last week or so in terms of gross profit per載入.現在還早。我們想看看購買價格是否涼爽。當你審視全年時，我們現在的基本預測是下半年復甦。

And assuming that the second half recovery does play out that would lead to second half growth year on year. In terms of Q1 as a percentage of the full year, just given the dynamics that we're seeing right now, I think that's probably not a great way to look at things just given how acute the squeeze has been as impacted by weather.

假設下半年復甦確實發生，這將導致下半年同比增長。就第一季佔全年的百分比而言，考慮到我們現在所看到的動態，我認為考慮到受天氣影響的擠壓程度有多嚴重，這可能不是一個看待事物的好方法。

So the hope would be an inflection in EBITDA in the second half of the year?

那麼，希望下半年 EBITDA 能有好轉嗎？

I wouldn't say hope, I would say that our base case recovery is for second half and the largest variable impacting that would be the rate of capacity exits. We've seen capacity exit the industry every month since October of 2022 that accelerated in December. It accelerated in January to the point of 30% above 2023 levels. And it just comes back to economics at the -- with respect to where spot line haul rates are relative to the cost of the carrier. So we expect that to continue to accelerate throughout 2024.

我不會說希望，我會說我們的基本情況復甦是下半年，影響最大的變數將是產能退出率。自 2022 年 10 月以來，我們每個月都看到產能退出該行業，並在 12 月加速退出。1 月加速成長，比 2023 年的水準高出 30%。這又回到了經濟學問題——現貨線路運輸費率與承運人成本的相對關係。因此，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2024 年繼續加速。

Okay. And then just one follow-up. So if I think about the contract mix today, the cash balance today, the working capital drag, whenever the up cycle will come. Do all those factors combined, does that in any way limit in your mind how quickly or how much of a recovery you'll see?

好的。然後只有一個後續行動。因此，如果我考慮一下今天的合約組合、今天的現金餘額、營運資金的拖累，無論上升週期何時到來。所有這些因素加在一起，是否會以任何方式限制您看到的恢復速度或程度？

Scott, I want to make sure that I'm understanding the question right. Are you saying like the recovery in cash or gross profit per load? I'm not sure I followed you completely.

斯科特，我想確保我正確理解了這個問題。您是說現金回收還是每批貨物的毛利？我不確定我是否完全跟隨了你。

Yes, ultimately, your recovery in earnings, EBITDA, everything, Yes.

是的，最終，你的收入、息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 等一切都會恢復，是的。

Yes. No. So we're very confident in the long-term. As you look at different parts of the cycle, whether it was in 2017 when the market was down, 2015 when the market was down, in 2020 at the beginning parts of COVID. You've seen that customers -- as tender rejection start to go, customers come to us and we're their go-to choice for spot loads, for projects, for many bids. We've got a proven history of showing that the gross profit per load does recover in the up part of the cycle. So we're extremely confident in that.

是的。不。所以長遠來看我們非常有信心。當你觀察週期的不同部分時，無論是 2017 年市場下跌時，2015 年市場下跌時，還是 2020 年新冠疫情初期。您已經看到，隨著投標被拒絕的開始，客戶來找我們，我們是他們現貨裝貨、項目和許多投標的首選。我們有一個經過驗證的歷史表明，每次裝載的毛利確實會在周期的上升部分恢復。所以我們對此非常有信心。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯·陳，斯蒂菲爾。

Thank you operator. And good morning everyone. Maybe just to follow up on a couple of things. Specifically, Scott's questions there on the customer adds and the contract mix. To what extent is that going to be a headwind to gross margins if we do see a recovery in buy rates increase in the back half? Is the expectation that gross margins are going to continue to be under pressure in 2025? Or does your base case kind of anticipate that you can pivot into the spot market fast enough to offset that?

謝謝運營商。大家早安。也許只是為了跟進一些事情。具體來說，斯科特對客戶補充和合約組合提出了問題。如果我們確實看到下半年購買率有所回升，那麼這將在多大程度上對毛利率產生不利影響？預計2025年毛利率將繼續承壓？或者您的基本情況是否預計您可以足夠快地轉向現貨市場來抵消這一影響？

Bruce, I think that we've shown in the past that we can absolutely pivot to be able to do that. You've seen our mix shift as close to 1,000 basis points on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Again, it goes back to what I told Scott. When the market turns, when people are rejecting loads, when there's projects, customers are going to come to the people that they know best. They're going to go to who they've had long-term relationships with, who's got technology that's integrated within their business. Somebody who has delivered results for their supply chain and their transportation needs. And if you look at our largest customers, they've been with us for 16 years on average. So we're highly confident that as the market inflects, you will see a big movement in gross profit per load and overall profitability.

布魯斯，我認為我們過去已經證明我們絕對可以做到這一點。您已經看到我們的結構環比變化接近 1,000 個基點。這又回到了我告訴史考特的話。當市場轉變時，當人們拒絕裝載時，當有專案時，客戶就會去找他們最了解的人。他們會去找那些與他們有長期合作關係、擁有整合到他們業務中的技術的人。為供應鏈和運輸需求交付成果的人。如果你看看我們最大的客戶，他們平均已經與我們合作了 16 年。因此，我們非常有信心，隨著市場的變化，您將看到每次負載的毛利和整體獲利能力發生重大變化。

That makes a lot of sense. I guess what I'm getting at to a little bit more is the timing. Is that going to be more of a 2025 event? And I guess what I'm really trying to get at is, if I think about annual EBITDA, you've got a 60% guide down for Q1 here. I know you've got that second half expectation for an inflection here, but is the thought that you can grow EBITDA in 2024? Or are we likely to see another flat year?

這很有意義。我想我要講的更多的是時機。這會更像是 2025 年的事件嗎？我想我真正想要了解的是，如果我考慮年度 EBITDA，您會發現第一季的指導值下降了 60%。我知道您對下半年的拐點有預期，但您是否認為 2024 年 EBITDA 可以成長？或者我們可能會看到另一個平淡的一年？

Yes, this is Jamie. As we look at 2024, I mean, clearly, Q1 is below where we expected it to be. As we look to the back half, it really depends on the timing and the shape of the recovery. Our base case is for that recovery to hit in the second half. If that hits, we're very confident we'll grow that EBITDA in the back half of the year. But I think it really depends on the timing and the shape of the recovery. We're positioning ourselves well from a cost standpoint and from a customer relationship point to be able to take those spot loads and to service well. And we'll get significant flow through when the market does inflect.

是的，這是傑米。當我們展望 2024 年時，我的意思是，很明顯，第一季低於我們的預期。當我們展望後半段時，這實際上取決於復甦的時間和形式。我們的基本期望是下半年實現復甦。如果這一點成功，我們非常有信心在今年下半年實現 EBITDA 的成長。但我認為這實際上取決於復甦的時間和形式。從成本的角度和客戶關係的角度來看，我們對自己進行了很好的定位，以便能夠承擔這些現貨負載並提供良好的服務。當市場確實發生變化時，我們將獲得大量流量。

Jack Atkins, Stephens.

傑克·阿特金斯、史蒂芬斯。

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my question guys. Really appreciate it. So I guess, Drew, going back to your comment earlier about when the cycle turns, customers are going to want to -- shippers are going to all go up to capacity providers that they know really well. I guess as I think about the brokerage market, oftentimes, it's perceived as being highly commoditized. So I guess, in that type of market inflection, why wouldn't shippers try to find the best possible price in addition to looking for good service as well? I just -- I think there's just some worry that these market share gains may not be -- stick with you once the cycle does inflect.

好的，太好了。謝謝你們回答我的問題。真的很感激。所以我想，德魯，回到你之前的評論，當週期轉變時，客戶會想要——托運人都會轉向他們非常了解的運力提供者。我想，當我想到經紀市場時，它通常被認為是高度商品化的。所以我想，在這種市場變化中，托運人除了尋求良好的服務之外，為什麼不嘗試找到最好的價格呢？我只是——我認為有人擔心，一旦週期確實發生變化，這些市場份額的成長可能不會——堅持下去。

Jack, I think that one thing that you could go back and look at is the history and they have stuck with us. The growing volume isn't something that has been unusual to us or onetime on a yearly basis. I think that what you would look for is the best price. Customers look for best price, best solution, best service.

傑克，我認為你可以回顧一下歷史，他們一直與我們同在。數量的成長對我們來說並不是什麼不尋常的事情，也不是每年一次。我認為您要尋找的是最優惠的價格。客戶尋求最優惠的價格、最好的解決方案和最好的服務。

Service is really important to our customers. And the fact that we can flex our capacity up and down with them, the fact that we're delivering when we say we're going to deliver, we've got great communication. We've got technology that helps deliver results into their business. We can help customers decide when they're going to ship something, what mode of transportation they're going to use. We've helped them optimize their freight. So in that sense, you do see them lean on us more to create solutions in a tighter market than what you see in a looser market.

服務對我們的客戶來說非常重要。事實上，我們可以與他們一起上下調整我們的能力，事實上，當我們說我們要交付時，我們就交付了，我們有很好的溝通。我們擁有有助於為他們的業務帶來成果的技術。我們可以幫助客戶決定何時運送物品以及使用哪種運輸方式。我們幫他們優化了貨運。因此，從這個意義上說，與在寬鬆的市場中看到的相比，您確實看到他們更依賴我們在緊張的市場中創建解決方案。

Okay. Got it. And then I guess my last question, going back to sort of, Jamie, your comments around working capital needs, what the cycle does inflect. I guess you're kind of run rating now somewhere at or above 3 times debt to EBITDA leverage. As you sort of think about the working capital needs, once the cycle does turn, I guess, how much leverage are you comfortable adding to the balance sheet perhaps temporarily to fund business growth there before you're able to start collecting cash and pay that down?

好的。知道了。然後我想我的最後一個問題，回到傑米，你對營運資金需求的評論，週期的影響。我猜你現在的運行評級是債務與 EBITDA 槓桿的 3 倍或以上。當你考慮營運資金需求時，一旦週期確實轉變，我猜你願意在資產負債表上增加多少槓桿，也許暫時為那裡的業務增長提供資金，然後你才能開始收取現金並支付這筆費用向下？

Yes. So at year-end, we were about 2.5, Jack. If you project forward into Q1 at both ends of the range. We're in the 2.9 to 3 range ballpark. We use about a 7% to 9% factor on the growth on the top line. That being said, we have actually a very quick turnaround on our DSO. So we collect -- we begin to collect money fairly quickly. And as we do that, we repeat that business through that second and third and fourth cycle, we become cash flow positive very quickly. And so we feel very comfortable that we've got the balance sheet strength to support the growth plan that we have in place. And when the cycle inflects, I think we'll be in really good shape to accommodate that.

是的。所以到年底，我們的人數大約是 2.5，傑克。如果您向前投射到範圍兩端的 Q1。我們的範圍是 2.9 到 3。我們對營收成長使用大約 7% 到 9% 的係數。話雖如此，實際上我們的 DSO 週轉速度非常快。所以我們收集——我們開始相當快地收集資金。當我們這樣做時，我們在第二個、第三個和第四個週期中重複這項業務，我們很快就變得正現金流。因此，我們感到非常放心，我們的資產負債表實力足以支持我們現有的成長計畫。當週期發生變化時，我認為我們將處於非常好的狀態來適應這一點。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Wilkerson for final closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給威爾克森先生以徵求最後的總結意見。

Thank you, Lara. RXO continued to deliver significant brokerage volume growth and strong margins in the fourth quarter despite the freight market that has been solved for a significant amount of time. We're taking the right actions today to deliver long-term results, including deepening our customer relationships, having a disciplined approach to cost and making the right investments for future growth. I'm proud of all that RXO delivered in 2023, and I'm looking forward to continuing to deliver for shareholders, customers, employees and the carriers that we partner with again in 2024. Thank you all for your time today, and I look forward to seeing a lot of you over the next few weeks.

謝謝你，拉拉。儘管貨運市場已經解決了很長時間，但 RXO 在第四季度繼續實現經紀業務量的顯著增長和強勁的利潤率。我們今天正在採取正確的行動來實現長期成果，包括深化我們的客戶關係、嚴格控製成本以及為未來成長進行正確的投資。我對 RXO 在 2023 年交付的一切感到自豪，我期待在 2024 年繼續為股東、客戶、員工和我們再次合作的營運商提供服務。感謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間，我期待在接下來的幾週內見到你們。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a lovely day.

謝謝你，先生。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝你愉快。