Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Rush Enterprises, Inc. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    美好的一天,感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加 Rush Enterprises, Inc. 2023 年第三季獲利結果電話會議。 (操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Rusty Rush, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

    我現在將會議交給今天的發言人、董事長、總裁兼執行長 Rusty Rush。請繼續,先生。

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings release conference call. On the call are Mike McRoberts, Chief Operating Officer; Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer; Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller; and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

    早上好,歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報發布電話會議。首席營運長 Mike McRoberts 參加了電話會議;史蒂夫凱勒,財務長; Jay Hazelwood,副總裁兼財務長;麥可‧戈德斯通 (Michael Goldstone),資深副總裁、總法律顧問兼公司秘書。

  • Now Steve will say a few words regarding forward-looking statements.

    現在史蒂夫將就前瞻性陳述說幾句話。

  • Steven L. Keller - CFO & Treasurer

    Steven L. Keller - CFO & Treasurer

  • Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include but are not limited to, those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    我們今天所做的某些聲明被視為1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性聲明。由於這些聲明包含風險和不確定性,因此我們的實際結果可能與此類前瞻性聲明所明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的重要因素包括但不限於我們在截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的年度 10-K 表格年度報告中討論的因素,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • As indicated in our news release, we achieved third quarter revenues of $2 billion and net income of $80.3 million or $0.96 per diluted share. We are proud to declare a cash dividend of $0.17 per common share.

    正如我們的新聞稿所示,我們第三季的收入為 20 億美元,淨利潤為 8,030 萬美元,即稀釋後每股收益 0.96 美元。我們很自豪地宣布每股普通股現金股利為 0.17 美元。

  • In the third quarter, we achieved strong financial results due to revenue growth from our expanded service technician workforce. Our support of large national accounts and ongoing pent-up demand for new Class 8 and Class 4-7 trucks following a limited new truck production over the past few years.

    在第三季度,由於我們擴大的服務技術人員隊伍帶來的收入成長,我們取得了強勁的財務表現。由於過去幾年新卡車產量有限,我們對龐大國民帳戶的支持以及對新 8 級和 4-7 級卡車持續被壓抑的需求的支持。

  • Though our largest customer segment, the over-the-road customers are being negatively affected by high interest rates, low freight rates and other [economic parameters], ongoing focus on our strategic initiatives helps us partially offset these challenges and achieved strong financial results in the third quarter.

    儘管我們最大的客戶群,即公路客戶,正受到高利率、低運費和其他[經濟參數]的負面影響,但對我們戰略舉措的持續關注有助於我們部分抵消這些挑戰,並在第三季度。

  • In the aftermarket, our parts, service and body shop revenues were $643.6 million, up 3.5%, for our absorption rate 132.8%. Though our aftermarket revenue has slowed, growth has slowed compared to previous quarters. The diversity of our customer base, our technician workforce and focus on large national accounts fueled our strong aftermarket results this quarter. Looking ahead, we believe aftermarket growth will continue to moderate through the rest of this year, and we are closely monitoring consumer spending and other economic condition which could impact parts and service demand.

    在售後市場,我們的零件、服務和車身修理廠收入為 6.436 億美元,成長 3.5%,吸收率為 132.8%。儘管我們的售後市場收入有所放緩,但與前幾季相比,成長速度有所放緩。我們的客戶群、技術人員隊伍的多樣性以及對大型國民帳戶的關注推動了我們本季強勁的售後市場業績。展望未來,我們認為今年剩餘時間售後市場成長將繼續放緩,我們正在密切關註消費者支出和其他可能影響零件和服務需求的經濟狀況。

  • In the fourth quarter, we believe customer demand for aftermarket services will remain steady and that our aftermarket results will be similar to the third quarter, with slight adjustments caused by normal seasonal softness and fewer working days in the quarter.

    第四季度,我們認為客戶對售後服務的需求將保持穩定,我們的售後業績將與第三季度相似,但由於正常的季節性疲軟和本季工作日減少而略有調整。

  • Turning to truck sales. We sold 4,326 new Class 8 trucks in the quarter, guiding for 6.1% of the total U.S. market and 2.1% in the Canadian market. Low freight rates continue to affect smaller operators, but strong pent-up demand continues to -- continue due to limited to [truck] production over the past few years. While there is still -- there's still new truck supplies that is causing us to still be on allocation from our OEMs, new truck production continued to improve in the third quarter, resulting in significantly shorter lead types for new drugs.

    轉向卡車銷售。本季我們售出了 4,326 輛新 8 級卡車,占美國市場總量的 6.1%,佔加拿大市場總量的 2.1%。低運費持續影響較小的營運商,但由於過去幾年[卡車]產量有限,被壓抑的需求仍然強勁。雖然仍然有新的卡車供應導致我們仍然從原始設備製造商那裡分配,但新卡車的產量在第三季度繼續改善,導致新藥的領先類型顯著縮短。

  • ACT Research forecast U.S. truck sales, Class 8 truck sales be $278,000 in 2023, up 7.2% compared to 2022. We believe pent-up demand for Class 8 trucks will last through the fourth quarter and then our fourth quarter Class 8 truck performance will align with our third quarter results.

    ACT Research 預測2023 年美國卡車銷量,8 級卡車銷售額為278,000 美元,比2022 年增長7.2%。我們相信,對8 級卡車被壓抑的需求將持續到第四季度,然後我們第四季度8 級卡車的業績將保持一致與我們第三季的業績。

  • Our Class 4-7 new truck sales reached 3,244 units in the fourth quarter -- third quarter, accounting for 4.8% of the U.S. market and 2.3% of the Canadian market. We experienced solid demand from a variety of market segments and those truck manufacturers devoting more resources to medium-duty trucks. Production remains limited and unmet demand in the market remains.

    我們的4-7級新卡車銷量在第四季至第三季達到3,244輛,占美國市場的4.8%和加拿大市場的2.3%。我們經歷了來自各個細分市場的強勁需求,以及那些卡車製造商在中型卡車上投入更多資源的情況。產量仍然有限,市場需求仍然未滿足。

  • ACT Research for U.S. Class 4-7 to retail sales to be 253,000 units in 2023, up 8.5% from 2022. We are closely watching consumer spending and other economic factors, which could impact our new Class 4-7 units, but continued pent-up demand with significant (inaudible) we expect our fourth quarter results will align with our third quarter results.

    ACT Research 預計2023 年美國4-7 級汽車零售量將達到253,000 輛,比2022 年增長8.5%。我們正在密切關註消費者支出和其他經濟因素,這可能會影響我們新的4-7 級汽車銷量,但仍將繼續關注需求顯著(聽不清)增加,我們預計第四季度的業績將與第三季的業績保持一致。

  • Our used truck sales reached 1,797 units in the third quarter, up 1.9% year-over-year. New truck production, soft freight rates, tight credit conditions led continued -- to continued weak demand in our industry in the third quarter. Used truck values to decline at an accelerated rate, though the rate of decline is slow and values appear to be normalizing. With new truck production continuing to increase with freight rates not expected to improve significantly in the fourth quarter. We expect used truck demand will remain low to the end of this year. We plan to maintain our inventory at lower than normal levels and believe we are well positioned to navigate these challenging market conditions. We expect our fourth quarter used truck results will be consistent again with our third quarter.

    第三季我們的二手卡車銷量達到1,797輛,較去年同期成長1.9%。新卡車產量、疲軟的運費、緊縮的信貸條件導致第三季我們行業的需求持續疲軟。二手卡車價值加速下降,但下降速度緩慢且價值似乎正在正常化。隨著新卡車產量持續增加,預計第四季運費不會顯著改善。我們預計到今年年底二手卡車需求將保持在低點。我們計劃將庫存維持在低於正常水平,並相信我們有能力應對這些充滿挑戰的市場條件。我們預計第四季的二手卡車業績將再次與第三季保持一致。

  • As we look ahead, we believe that the demand for Class 8 trucks will substantially be satisfied by the end of the fourth quarter, and that new truck production has continued to improve. We will continue to monitor our economic factors, which are impacting our customers, especially over-the-road carriers. While we expect typical seasonal softness in the fourth quarter, we believe our financial results will align with the third quarter results and we will close the year strong.

    展望未來,我們相信8級卡車的需求將在第四季末得到基本滿足,新卡車產量將持續改善。我們將繼續監控影響我們客戶的經濟因素,尤其是公路承運人。雖然我們預計第四季度會出現典型的季節性疲軟,但我們相信我們的財務業績將與第三季的業績保持一致,並且我們將以強勁的業績結束這一年。

  • As always, it is important for me to thank our employees for their great work every day and for staying focused on our company's long-term strategic initiatives while providing superior service to our customers.

    一如既往,對我來說,重要的是要感謝我們的員工每天的出色工作,感謝他們在為客戶提供優質服務的同時,始終專注於公司的長期策略舉措。

  • With that, I'll take your questions.

    接下來,我將回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓(Andrew Obin)。

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • Rusty, Steve, team. How are you?

    魯斯蒂,史蒂夫,團隊。你好嗎?

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Very good. Thank you, Andrew.

    非常好。謝謝你,安德魯。

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • So first question is, I think Traton was saying today that they think they're starting to start sales of the new S13 engine and expect to ship on quarter Navistar units in '24. So does this have any impact on your sort of profitability in the Navistar franchise going forward? And can you also remind us how you're positioned on the Cummins engines outside of your vertically integrated model on PACCAR?

    所以第一個問題是,我認為 Traton 今天說他們認為他們開始銷售新的 S13 發動機,並預計在 24 年出貨四分之一的 Navistar 發動機。那麼,這對您未來 Navistar 特許經營業務的盈利能力有什麼影響嗎?您能否提醒我們,在 PACCAR 垂直整合模型之外,您對康明斯引擎的定位如何?

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • You bet. Well, the S13 we're excited about it. We know that Volkswagen is excited about it and Navistar is excited about it. Well, we're going to start a little slower than what we anticipated with the engine getting it here. We were hoping to get a few more this year than what we've gotten. But we're excited, and we'll be showing up in 2024. That said, when it comes to profitability. Remember, typically, the most important thing that you drive, we're excited with what we believe will be a great performance of it. It's the long-term parts profitability that goes with it because it makes parts become more (inaudible) to that brand. So we would expect that over time to definitely have an effect in the profitability of the overall of the Navistar franchises.

    你打賭。嗯,S13 讓我們很興奮。我們知道大眾汽車對此感到興奮,納威司達也對此感到興奮。好吧,我們的啟動速度會比我們預期的引擎慢一點。我們希望今年能得到比我們已經得到的更多的東西。但我們很興奮,我們將在 2024 年出現。也就是說,當談到盈利能力時。請記住,通常情況下,您駕駛的最重要的東西,我們對它的出色表現感到興奮。隨之而來的是零件的長期盈利能力,因為它使零件變得更加適合該品牌(聽不清楚)。因此,我們預計,隨著時間的推移,這肯定會對 Navistar 特許經營權的整體獲利能力產生影響。

  • I'm thinking about trying to understand your comments question. Obviously, because...

    我正在考慮嘗試理解您的評論問題。顯然,因為...

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • Yes, just what's happening with Cummins? And what's your position? What's your relationship with Cummins? Just remind us.

    是的,康明斯到底發生了什麼事?你的立場是什麼?您與康明斯是什麼關係?請提醒我們。

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Sure. Well, our Cummins relationship is great. From an engine perspective, we're the largest distributor of Cummins engines, considering their 2 largest customers or PACCAR and Navistar, we're the largest (inaudible) dealer and we're the largest Navistar dealer, right? So we're probably the largest retail dealer in the world, I would guess, when it comes to retail delivery.

    當然。嗯,我們的康明斯關係非常好。從引擎的角度來看,我們是康明斯引擎最大的經銷商,考慮到他們的兩個最大客戶PACCAR 和Navistar,我們是最大的(聽不清楚)經銷商,我們是最大的Navistar 經銷商,對吧?因此,我猜,在零售交付方面,我們可能是世界上最大的零售經銷商。

  • We also have a very strong relationship across the board. It's much deeper than just that. Remember, we've got our JV, our joint venture, which is -- we call it CCFT because Cummins Clean Fuel Technologies as with them on the natural gas fuel system side because we both believe they bought 50% share in that here January 1, '22, and we have accelerated our investments is what we prepare for what we believe a big opportunity for that market share to increase from what it's always stayed around 2%. We think over the next 2 to 3 years that, that share can increase 7%, 8%, 9% as the -- especially the truckload side, the over-the-road long haul side, has to wrestle with all the pressures -- the environmental pressures that we're dealing with.

    我們在各方面也有著非常牢固的關係。它的意義遠不止於此。請記住,我們有我們的合資企業,我們的合資企業,我們稱之為CCFT,因為康明斯清潔燃料技術公司與他們在天然氣燃料系統方面一樣,因為我們都相信他們在1 月1 日購買了50 % 的股份,'22,我們加速了投資,我們相信這是一個巨大的機會,可以使市場份額從一直保持在 2% 左右的水平增加。我們認為,在未來 2 到 3 年裡,這一份額可能會增加 7%、8%、9%,因為——尤其是卡車運輸方面、公路長途運輸方面,必須應對所有壓力—— - 我們正在應對的環境壓力。

  • Right now, fuel cell is still ways away. Hydrogens are ways away. And I don't believe electric is a ways away when it comes to meeting the needs of a 400, 500-mile haul on a daily basis. None of those are set up for that right now. So we believe they're bringing over their new 15-liter engine. And we do believe that the other that partnership is going to be doing really well for us, really as we get into '25, '26, starting to accelerate '24, but in '25, '26 and getting to '27, we believe we've got a lot of opportunity around that from a fuel system side.

    目前,燃料電池距離實現還有很長的路要走。氫離我們還很遙遠。我相信電動車能夠滿足每天 400 至 500 英里的運輸需求。目前這些都還沒準備好。所以我們相信他們會帶來新的 15 升引擎。我們確實相信,當我們進入'25、'26,開始加速'24,但在'25、'26並進入'27時,我們的合作夥伴關係將會為我們帶來非常好的結果,我們相信我們在燃料系統方面有很多機會。

  • So as I said, it's a very broad relationship with them. And we're excited to have that relationship and forward to continue to working with them like we have always.

    正如我所說,我們與他們有著非常廣泛的關係。我們很高興能夠建立這種關係,並期待像往常一樣繼續與他們合作。

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • And just a follow-up question on sort of your -- sort of saying that Q4 is roughly going to be in line with Q3. And sort of I hate to be asked a question about next year. But how sustainable is the sort of quarterly pace, right? We know that you're sort of telegraphing that new unit sales are going to be down but you have your own dynamic and then the aftermarket. How sustainable is the sort of earnings power, I don't know, let's call it around $0.90 going forward?

    只是一個關於您的後續問題 - 有點說第四季度大致將與第三季度保持一致。我有點討厭被問到有關明年的問題。但這種季度成長速度的可持續性有多強,對嗎?我們知道你們在暗示新銷量將會下降,但你們有自己的動力,然後是售後市場。我不知道這種盈利能力的可持續性如何,我們將其稱為 0.90 美元左右吧?

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Well, how about if I stay off of a number, Andrew, as always. I'm not going to change that. But let me talk a little more broadly, a little more in depth about what I see in the fourth quarter and how we view next year.

    好吧,安德魯,我像往常一樣遠離電話號碼怎麼樣?我不會改變這一點。但讓我更廣泛、更深入地談談我對第四季的看法以及我們對明年的看法。

  • As I said in the release in Q4, we expect it to be similar, very similar to Q3. When I say that, there's going to be puts and takes, right? It's different. There's seasonality involved, but there's puts and there's takes. We think when it all washes out from a return perspective, what you see, it won't be exactly the same, but the results should end up around the same based on what we've got. [We are already] into October. We know how October is running and fairly flat, but sequentially. So that gives you some outlook, what you should be delivering from a truck sales perspective. So we -- as I said, we said in the release, Q4 would be about the same, but there'll be some puts and takes.

    正如我在第四季的發布中所說,我們預計它與第三季非常相似。當我這麼說的時候,就會有投入和拿取,對吧?這不一樣。這涉及季節性,但也有看跌和看跌的情況。我們認為,當一切從回報的角度來看時,你所看到的不會完全相同,但根據我們所得到的結果,結果應該大致相同。 [我們已經]進入十月了。我們知道 10 月的情況如何,相當平穩,但順序是這樣的。因此,這給了你一些展望,從卡車銷售的角度來看你應該提供什麼。因此,正如我所說,我們在新聞稿中說過,第四季度的情況大致相同,但會有一些調整和調整。

  • Looking into next year, well, you got to remember that ACT has got the Class 8 market, down 22%, okay? Now we like to believe that we can probably do a little better than that. I'm not going to get into exact in the way of EPS with you, but we like to believe we can do better than that. We do believe, we glad to say market for us, we'll be down. We're hoping, not that dramatically. But what you've got to understand is they just opened up order books in September. You saw the September number. It was like 37,000 units, right? People go, "Oh, my goodness, we've got this big order intake." Well, I think you've got to dive a little deeper into it. Remember, last year, September was like 54,000 or so, if I remember correctly. And -- what's happened is typically the manufacturers used to open their order books up earlier in the year, like around July or so, right?

    展望明年,你必須記住 ACT 的 8 級市場下降了 22%,好嗎?現在我們願意相信我們可以做得更好一點。我不會向您詳細介紹每股收益,但我們相信我們可以做得更好。我們確實相信,我們很高興地說市場對我們來說,我們會下跌。我們希望,情況不要那麼嚴重。但你必須明白的是,他們剛剛在九月開放了訂單。你看到了九月的數字。大約有 37,000 單位,對吧?人們會說,“哦,天哪,我們收到了這麼大的訂單。”好吧,我認為你必須更深入地研究它。請記住,如果我沒記錯的話,去年 9 月的人數約為 54,000 人左右。而且——通常情況下,製造商通常會在今年早些時候開放訂單,例如七月左右,對嗎?

  • Well, when we had all the run-up in inflation from the commodity side a couple of years ago, they got burned pretty bad, right? We had all the surcharges and everything else. So what they've done is push out when they open up their books a couple of 3 months, okay? I mean they take orders back of the day like in June to place an order and stuff like that and count it. But now they have pushed that out to September. So what you had was some pent-up demand, I think some customers had already ordered for '24, but they were not released by the OEMs because they want to make -- get more comfortable with the pricing, with their cost factors and not get burned like they did a couple of years ago, which they got pretty burn. Let me tell you, and that's why you had to come in with all the surcharges, et cetera.

    好吧,幾年前,當我們從大宗商品方面經歷通貨膨脹時,它們就被燒得很厲害,對吧?我們承擔了所有附加費和其他一切。所以他們所做的就是在三個月後打開書本時推出,好嗎?我的意思是,他們會在六月的當天接受訂單,下訂單之類的東西並進行計數。但現在他們把這個時間延後到了九月。所以你所擁有的是一些被壓抑的需求,我認為一些客戶已經訂購了 24 年的產品,但原始設備製造商沒有發布它們,因為他們想要——對定價、成本因素更加滿意,而不是就像幾年前一樣,他們被燒傷了,而且燒得很厲害。讓我告訴你,這就是為什麼你必須支付所有附加費等等。

  • So there really was -- it wasn't a September number. It may have been a little bit of a head fake, okay? When I say that because there was some pent-up demand, maybe orders have been placed by in June and July, but we're just not released by the manufacturer because they didn't want to open it up because they were protecting their selves from maybe some sudden quick rise in commodity costs, et cetera. So when that 37,000 really wasn't as big, I think, as people -- solve.

    所以確實有——這不是 9 月的數字。這可能有點假,好嗎?當我說因為有一些被壓抑的需求時,也許訂單已經在六月和七月下了,但是製造商沒有釋放我們,因為他們不想開放,因為他們是在保護自己可能是由於商品成本突然快速上漲等等。因此,我認為,當這 37,000 人確實不像人那麼大時,就解決了。

  • So again, we've really only been working for September, 4 weeks on business for next year. So it's a little bit early to say, but I would have to believe that overall, the market is going to be down. It's going to take a breath before -- what you can remember though, with the EPA laws coming in, in '26 -- excuse me, the end of '26 or first to '27. We still expect '25 or '26 to be very robust years. And '24 will be a year that we'll get through it. I don't anticipate us going backwards as far. Why? Because of the diversity of our customer base.

    再說一次,我們實際上只工作了 9 月份,明年只工作 4 週。所以現在說還為時過早,但我不得不相信,整體而言,市場將會下跌。在此之前,你會記得,隨著 EPA 法律的出台,在 26 年,對不起,是 26 年底或 27 年初。我們仍然預計 25 或 26 年將是非常強勁的年份。 24 年將是我們度過難關的一年。我預計我們不會倒退那麼遠。為什麼?因為我們的客戶群具有多樣性。

  • If we were tied totally to the small carrier over-the-road, drive freight, (inaudible) freight that type of stuff. We would be -- we'd be -- I would tell you my number would be closer to that or worse. Again, I don't expect it to be the same. I expect it to be down. But given the diversity, because if you remember all the money is still going to be pumped into the economy on the vocational side, right, from the infrastructure build. That's got to be spent. So -- and there's a lot of other market segments that we plan that should maintain a lot better than just the -- look, we're in a freight recession. I didn't know that. We've been in a freight recession. Just go check the -- check the results, check it all out. We've been one on for a year now. I mean I was just with a lot of customers.

    如果我們完全依賴公路上的小型承運人,那就開貨運,(聽不清楚)貨運之類的東西。我們會——我們會——我會告訴你我的數字會更接近這個數字,甚至更糟。再說一次,我不希望它會是一樣的。我預計它會下降。但考慮到多樣性,因為如果你還記得的話,所有資金仍然會從基礎設施建設中註入職業方面的經濟,對吧。那是必須要花的因此,我們計劃的許多其他細分市場應該比僅僅看起來更好,我們正處於貨運衰退之中。我不知道。我們一直處於貨運衰退之中。只要去檢查-檢查結果,檢查全部。我們已經在一起一年了。我的意思是我只是和很多顧客在一起。

  • Last week at ATA, it was not all beaches and clean everywhere. Well, we still expect that market hopefully sometime maybe April next year. I don't know exactly because I probably missed the date before to pick back up, but it hasn't yet. It's still bobbling along. I hope it's on the bottom. Just check out the spot rates of (inaudible) People are anticipating, at least not taking their still -- people are still taking hits on their contract rates in that side of the business.

    上週在 ATA,這裡並不都是海灘,到處都是乾淨的。好吧,我們仍然預計這個市場預計將在明年四月的某個時候出現。我不太清楚,因為我可能錯過了之前接機的日期,但現在還沒有。它仍然在搖搖欲墜。我希望它在底部。只需查看(聽不清楚)人們預期的即期匯率,至少沒有採取他們的靜止方式——人們仍然在這方面的業務中受到合約利率的打擊。

  • The small guys are still getting pushed out with the rise in fuel prices that were at 90, 120 days there. There's just a lot. We've had a little bit too much supply on the long over-the-road trucks. We just have. So we're trying to -- it's trying to be pushed out, which it will get pushed out, it always does, but that is still the largest piece of the Class 8 truck business, okay?

    由於燃油價格連續 90、120 天上漲,小型企業仍被擠出市場。有很多。我們的長公路卡車供應有點過多。我們剛剛有了。所以我們正在努力 - 它試圖被推出,它會被推出,它總是如此,但這仍然是 8 級卡車業務的最大部分,好嗎?

  • So I'll try to reflect -- I could go on and on, but I think you can get the gist of what I'm saying.

    所以我會嘗試反思——我可以繼續說下去,但我認為你可以明白我所說的要點。

  • Parts of service, you asked about that also. As I would look, the growth rates will slow down, understanding if you look at where we're at now and you go, we're only 3.5%. Well, you got to dive in there a little deeper to really understand it. We were fairly flat at the revenue line, okay?

    服務部分,你也問過這個問題。正如我所看到的,成長率將會放緩,如果你看看我們現在的處境,你會發現我們只有 3.5%。嗯,你必須更深入地研究才能真正理解它。我們的營收線相當平穩,好嗎?

  • Well, the real problem is 30% of our business roughly is still what we call unassigned accounts to small folks. The ones that you don't have dedicated account salesman to or the cash customer, those types. It's still 30% of our business. That business was almost 10%. That is caused by the freight recession, okay? Those are the -- that's the flex piece inside of everything that's out. The big guys are still good. They're not making as much money, but they have great cash positions to write it out. You're big public carriers. But those folks are also a higher-margin piece of our business, right? Okay.

    嗯,真正的問題是我們大約 30% 的業務仍然是我們所說的小規模未分配帳戶。那些你沒有專門的客戶銷售員或現金客戶的類型。這仍然占我們業務的 30%。該業務幾乎佔 10%。這是貨運衰退造成的,好嗎?這些是——這是所有產品內部的彈性部分。大佬們還是不錯的。他們賺的錢沒有那麼多,但他們有大量的現金部位可以用來支出。你們是大型公共航空公司。但這些人也是我們業務中利潤率較高的部分,對吧?好的。

  • So fortunately, for us, we've had some real -- done some really nice stuff around going after dedicated people going out for national account business, and that business is up quite dramatically. So that helps to offset, but it's in our cost too, okay? It's not as high a margin business. It's that small business, but we've had a lot of success around it, and we'll continue to focus on that because that should be a steadier pace going forward.

    所以幸運的是,對我們來說,我們已經做了一些真正的——做了一些非常好的事情,圍繞著追求國民帳戶業務的專門人員,而且這項業務增長得相當快。所以這有助於抵消,但這也包含在我們的成本中,好嗎?這不是一個利潤率那麼高的業務。這是一家小型企業,但我們已經取得了很多成功,我們將繼續關注這一點,因為這應該是一個更穩定的前進步伐。

  • So we'll just have to see how next year plays out. It's a little bit early. But we still feel good pretty good about our business model, but it's going to be a tougher year. You might then think it is wrong, okay? But I think what we've done with the company over the last few years. Let's look at the results in the last 3 years. That's all I can tell you. And we believe very strongly in the results going forward. Even with '24 not being as good as '23 and probably not as good as '25 or '26, but it's not going to be terrible, okay?

    所以我們只需要看看明年的情況如何。時間有點早了。但我們仍然對我們的商業模式感覺很好,但這將是更加艱難的一年。然後你可能會認為這是錯的,好嗎?但我認為過去幾年我們對公司所做的事情。讓我們看看過去3年的結果。我只能告訴你這些。我們對未來的結果充滿信心。即使 '24 不如 '23 好,也可能不如 '25 或 '26 好,但也不會很糟糕,好嗎?

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • So the last question for me, and I think you set it up for me, and I bet you know the question I'm going to ask. You keep delivering earnings well ahead of consensus, even as things are slowing. I think if you look at the fourth quarter, your message seems you're coming up -- coming out versus consensus, excellent SG&A control, you're doing everything you're supposed to do. You know that the next year is not going to be good. You also know what '25 and '26 is going to look like, you know what the company is going to deliver. What's the Board's thinking about sort of stepping up share buyback in this environment, particularly on a day like today when stock is down 8% on very solid numbers?

    這是我的最後一個問題,我想你已經為我設定了這個問題,我打賭你知道我要問的問題。即使事情正在放緩,你仍然能夠遠遠領先共識。我認為,如果你看看第四季度,你會發現你的訊息似乎正在出現——與共識相對,出色的銷售管理及行政管理控制,你正在做你應該做的一切。你知道明年不會有好日子。您還知道“25”和“26”會是什麼樣子,您知道公司將提供什麼。在這種環境下,尤其是在像今天這樣股價因非常可靠的數據而下跌 8% 的日子裡,董事會對加強股票回購有何想法?

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Good question, right? I just finished the Board meeting, yesterday afternoon. In fact, Andrew. We look at it as a great value. We wouldn't have been doing what we've been doing. We stepped it up 50% this year. We're going to return -- we've got a pretty detail what we want to do, and we particularly -- we've said and stated, we want to return 35% to 40% shareholder return between a combination of dividend and stock buyback. That said, free cash flow, excuse me. That said, we're going to return 55% this year, okay?

    好問題,對吧?昨天下午我剛結束董事會。事實上,安德魯.我們認為它具有巨大的價值。我們不會一直在做我們一直在做的事情。今年我們將其提高了 50%。我們將回報 - 我們已經非常詳細地了解了我們想要做什麼,特別是 - 我們已經說過並聲明過,我們希望在股息和股息的組合之間回報 35% 至 40% 的股東回報股票回購。也就是說,自由現金流,請原諒。也就是說,今年我們將回報 55%,好嗎?

  • I don't see us returning whatever the FCS is next year. I don't see us returning much more than 55%. I think you like to build in a cushion, I want to make sure I've got some money in case of M&A comes along. You know, I don't have any great M&A right now, but I have a feeling with the downturn, typically, some M&A might show up, right? And so we want to be positioned to be able to do everything. We're not going backwards, okay. We're going to spend the whole $150 million this year, and I would anticipate us -- we'll make that decision. We have a call by nNovember the 28th Board call, if you want to know the truth, to make that determination as we get a little further on another few weeks never helps, so you're trying to look in the crystal ball. So we've got a Board calls up because they have no when they left for November 28 announced for December 1 because that's when we announce every year is December 1 is what our buyback will be. So stay tuned about that.

    我不認為明年我們會回歸 FCS。我認為我們的回報率不會超過 55%。我認為你喜歡建立一個緩衝,我想確保我有一些錢,以防併購發生。你知道,我現在沒有任何偉大的併購,但我對經濟低迷有一種感覺,通常情況下,可能會出現一些併購,對嗎?因此,我們希望能夠做到一切。我們不會走回頭路,好。今年我們將花費全部 1.5 億美元,我預計我們會做出這個決定。我們在11 月第28 屆董事會電話會議上接到電話,如果你想知道真相,那麼在我們再過幾週再取得進一步進展時做出決定是沒有幫助的,所以你要試著看看水晶球。因此,我們接到了董事會的電話,因為他們在 11 月 28 日離開時沒有宣布 12 月 1 日的回購計劃,因為我們每年都會在 12 月 1 日宣布回購。所以請繼續關注這一點。

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • Well, you know what I feel about it. Great quarter.

    嗯,你知道我對此的感受。很棒的季度。

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • You bet. I know, Andrew, there's a balancing act, as I said, possibly some M&A might show up and I want to make sure I'm prepared and I don't want to take debt and I don't have to go, but we just want to be able to take care of everything we need to [while still] we believe it is the best investment we can make. I'm totally in agreement with you.

    你打賭。我知道,安德魯,正如我所說,有一個平衡的行為,可能會出現一些併購,我想確保我做好了準備,我不想承擔債務,我也不必離開,但我們只是希望能夠照顧到我們需要的一切,[同時]我們相信這是我們能做出的最好的投資。我完全同意你的看法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗(Justin Long)和斯蒂芬斯(Stephens)的線路。

  • Justin Trennon Long - MD & Research Analyst

    Justin Trennon Long - MD & Research Analyst

  • Well, I wanted to start with a question on customer mix, going back to some things you were saying earlier. Do you feel like the small customers that are unassigned, do you feel like the activity there has bottomed down 10% this quarter? And then can you share on the other side of the coin, how your national accounts are performing right now just so we understand the relative trends?

    嗯,我想從一個關於客戶組合的問題開始,回到你之前所說的一些事情。您是否感覺像那些未分配的小客戶,您是否感覺本季那裡的活動已經觸底下降了10%?然後您能否分享一下硬幣的另一面,您的國民帳戶目前的表現如何,以便我們了解相對趨勢?

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Sure. No, you -- I'll get the numbers, like I said, down 10%. I don't have that answer, but the comps are going to get easier. So I got to tell you, if you're going to year-over-year comp, yes. They're probably right there, okay? Sequentially, I don't know if there might be another couple or 3 points left in there buddy. I don't know that we've -- the market has not totally been cleansed yet, okay? There's still folks out there that are hauling freight for basically barely breakeven and can pay my fuel, okay? I mean I heard some numbers that people were only free for last week when I was up. I met with a lot of customers at ATA. And I heard some of the slashing that was going on out there. So it's (inaudible) to continue for another 6 months here, okay? So that means you're going to keep flushing some out.

    當然。不,你——我會得到數字,就像我說的,下降 10%。我沒有答案,但比賽會變得更容易。所以我必須告訴你,如果你要逐年比較,是的。他們可能就在那裡,好嗎?接下來,我不知道是否還會剩下幾分或三分,老兄。我不知道我們──市場還沒有完全淨化,好嗎?仍然有人在運輸貨物,基本上勉強收支平衡,並且可以支付我的燃油費,好嗎?我的意思是我聽到一些數字說人們只有在上週我起床的時候才有空。我在 ATA 會見了很多客戶。我聽到了外面發生的一些砍伐聲。所以(聽不清楚)要在這裡再繼續 6 個月,好嗎?所以這意味著你將繼續沖掉一些。

  • But I would expect the year-over-year comps with that market to be around the same. Sequentially, it may have a little bit more, knowing that it wasn't as bad Q1 and Q2 last year, right? Okay. So it depends on how you want me to talk about it. But I would suggest that it will stay similar on a year-over-year basis, I guess, would be what I would tell you because it got worse in the year went on.

    但我預計該市場的年比情況將大致相同。接下來,可能會多一點,知道去年第一季和第二季的情況沒有那麼糟糕,對嗎?好的。所以這取決於你希望我如何談論它。但我建議,我想,每年的情況都會保持相似,這就是我要告訴你的,因為隨著時間的推移,情況變得更糟。

  • When it comes to the national account business, we're really proud of the efforts because we put in a lot of dedicated people. I spent some money on that. That's all inside our G&A and focused on it because our ability to grow that piece of our business is directly tied with the second most valuable piece of this company. My people are always first, first and foremost.

    當談到國民帳戶業務時,我們對所做的努力感到非常自豪,因為我們投入了許多敬業的人員。我為此花了一些錢。這一切都在我們的一般管理費用中,並重點關注它,因為我們發展該業務的能力與該公司第二大有價值的部分直接相關。我的人民永遠是第一位的。

  • But the second piece is my map. My map is bigger or our map is bigger than anybody else's map. And when you can provide consistency of service, and I can take you to interview many people, many large companies that we can do that with. When you can provide that consistency, your opportunities to me or analysts, I mean -- I mean they're not endless, but I sure feel like it for us. We've got plenty of conquest out there that we don't do business with or a large national accounts as consolidation has continued around this industry for years and will continue and that ability to go out and capture some folks, and I'm not going to get any name the names on an earnings call. But we know there's still plenty of opportunity. I sat meetings with folks last week, almost begging us to come over to do business with somewhat.

    但第二塊是我的地圖。我的地圖更大或我們的地圖比其他人的地圖更大。當你能夠提供一致的服務時,我可以帶你訪問很多人,很多我們可以合作的大公司。當你能夠為我或分析師提供這種一致性和機會時,我的意思是——我的意思是它們不是無窮無盡的,但我確實覺得我們很喜歡這樣。我們已經征服了很多我們不與之做生意的地方,或者是一個龐大的國民帳戶,因為這個行業的整合已經持續了很多年,並且將繼續下去,而且有能力走出去並捕獲一些人,而我不是會在財報電話會議上得到任何名字。但我們知道仍然有很多機會。上週我和人們開會,幾乎是在懇求我們過來做點生意。

  • Regardless of where the business is up or down, I can't change the environment. But what I can do is provide a different solution, understanding your competition and differentiating yourself is what it's all about. And we know that, that kind of growth -- we grew 19%. I'm talking about being down 10%, but it's a little -- it's at a lower margin, but it's still really good business, right?

    無論生意好或不好,我都無法改變環境。但我能做的就是提供不同的解決方案,了解你的競爭對手並讓自己脫穎而出才是最重要的。我們知道,這種成長——我們成長了 19%。我說的是下降 10%,但這有點——利潤率較低,但仍然是一筆不錯的生意,對吧?

  • And the other piece you got to keep into account is our service business. We expect our service business to be up next year. We may take a hit in some parts business, but we expect our service business to grow. Why? Because we brought 150 technicians this year, many of them mobile. We have a goal to get to asked me a year ago, we were 500 and something we're 650 now. We've got to go to get to 1,000, okay? And those kind of -- the demand for that type of thing is out there, plus it's just providing an array of services on a consistent basis on a larger map, that doesn't mean our competition is great. So we're all listening right now.

    您需要考慮的另一部分是我們的服務業務。我們預計明年我們的服務業務將會成長。我們的某些零件業務可能會受到打擊,但我們預計我們的服務業務將會成長。為什麼?因為今年我們帶來了 150 位技術人員,其中許多都是流動的。我們有一個目標,一年前問我,我們是 500 人,現在是 650 人。我們必須達到 1,000 名,好嗎?對此類事物的需求是存在的,而且它只是在更大的地圖上一致地提供一系列服務,這並不意味著我們的競爭很大。所以我們現在都在聽。

  • But at the same time, (inaudible) replay. And that's good but there's -- we try to differentiate by having a larger map and being able to tie it all together, regardless of brand.

    但同時,(聽不清楚)重播。這很好,但我們試圖透過擁有更大的地圖並將其整合在一起來實現差異化,無論品牌如何。

  • There's still a lot of proprietary. It's not all vertical. It's not all proprietary. So -- and we're able to take care of folks. That's really the best definition I could give you. We got a lot of runway left in there. When the market goes up or the market goes down, we think we can grow it consistently on a year-over-year quarterly basis. We don't look for that to change either as we go forward.

    還有很多專有的。並不全是垂直的。這並不全是專有的。所以——我們能夠照顧人。這確實是我能給你的最好的定義。我們那裡還剩下很多跑道。當市場上漲或下跌時,我們認為我們可以按季度逐年持續成長。在我們前進的過程中,我們也不希望這一點改變。

  • Justin Trennon Long - MD & Research Analyst

    Justin Trennon Long - MD & Research Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And you mentioned earlier the act numbers for next year have continued to trend lower, and now they're expecting it a 22% decline in Class 8 truck sales. If that plays out, if reality is pretty close to that, how should we think about your ability to grow parts and service? Do you feel like you can still grow it? And if so, any thoughts on the order of magnitude?

    知道了。這很有幫助。您之前提到明年的銷售數據繼續呈下降趨勢,現在他們預計 8 級卡車銷量將下降 22%。如果這種情況發生,如果現實與此非常接近,我們應該如何考慮您增加零件和服務的能力?你覺得還能種嗎?如果是這樣,對數量級有什麼想法嗎?

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Sure. I think our year-over-year comps will start to get a little better because we -- when we get into Q2 and Q3 because it's flat out some this year, right? Remember, when I was speaking earlier, that shift in the small guy that's got more margin towards that national account. Yes, that made it a little tougher. You can see it. You can see it in the numbers and parts of service profit. We expected that. We do expect it to be a little better next quarter. We think Q3 was like a trough wheel. But I would tell you -- it would have some effect. There's no question, but we think we can overcome that or at least maintain. We're not going to have -- like first quarter this year, we had a 17% growth rate. We're not going to do that next year.

    當然。我認為我們的同比比較將開始變得更好一些,因為當我們進入第二季和第三季時,因為今年的情況有些平淡,對吧?請記住,當我早些時候講話時,小型企業的轉變為國民帳戶帶來了更多利潤。是的,這讓事情變得有點困難。你可以看到。你可以從服務利潤的數字和部分中看到這一點。我們預料到了。我們確實預計下個季度情況會好一點。我們認為第三季就像一個槽輪。但我會告訴你——它會有一些效果。毫無疑問,但我們認為我們可以克服或至少維持這一點。我們不會像今年第一季那樣實現 17% 的成長率。明年我們不會這樣做。

  • We were 3.5% in Q3, and we're probably going to bobble around that in (inaudible) and I would expect that probably to continue in Q1 with the same dynamics that we're dealing right now. Q3 will probably have the same type of dynamics. We do not see -- hoping I do not (inaudible). I'm not -- I can't guarantee the future because it's been pretty volatile at times out there. But I don't use any big, huge market decline based on what I'm watching right now.

    第三季我們的成長率為 3.5%,我們可能會在(聽不清楚)中徘徊,我預期第一季這種情況可能會持續,與我們現在正在處理的動態相同。第三季可能會有相同類型的動態。我們沒有看到──希望我沒有看到(聽不清楚)。我不是——我不能保證未來,因為它有時非常不穩定。但根據我現在所看到的情況,我並沒有使用任何巨大的市場下跌。

  • We think we can overcome what obstacles are out there with a less truck sales get a little less internal work, got it. But we really believe in our growth strategy around our service arena and around our dedication to the larger customers. Will it have an effect? Yes, we think we could keep where we've got it by picking up in other areas that are available to us, I think. So I mean, is it somewhat of a headwind, of course, it is. I can't sit here (inaudible) we're going to sell less trucks because we do a lot of internal work to on trucks getting it ready.

    我們認為,透過減少卡車銷量,減少內部工作,我們可以克服現有的障礙,明白了。但我們確實相信我們圍繞著服務領域和對大客戶的奉獻的成長策略。會有效果嗎?是的,我認為我們可以透過在我們可以利用的其他領域進行學習來保持現有的水平。所以我的意思是,這是否有點逆風,當然,確實如此。我不能坐在這裡(聽不清楚),我們將減少銷售卡車,因為我們在卡車上做了很多內部工作,以做好準備。

  • But we believe that probably I think in Q3 was indicative outside of truck sales, but I'm thinking that parts and service side, we'll keep pounding it out even if we're having a shift in a little -- some up, some down puts and takes.

    但我們相信,我認為第三季可能是卡車銷售之外的指標,但我認為零件和服務方面,我們將繼續努力,即使我們有一點轉變——一些上升,一些失望和需要。

  • But giving -- remember, our diversification is not just the over the road I talk about. Remember, we're so embedded in so many other market segments that we're committed to, and that's -- if we were just -- I'd be getting crushed like a lot of my customers are, if I was just in the over-the-road business. And we were just tied to that. We'd look just like this when it comes to comps year-over-year from '22 to '23, but we're not, and our numbers speak for themselves. We are diversified into so many other market segments.

    但請記住,我們的多元化不僅僅是我談論的那條路。請記住,我們如此深入地融入了我們所致力於的許多其他細分市場,如果我們只是在這個市場中,我就會像我的許多客戶一樣被壓垮。公路業務。我們只是與此連結在一起。從22年到23年的逐年比較來看,我們看起來就像這樣,但我們不是,我們的數字不言而喻。我們多元化進入許多其他細分市場。

  • Justin Trennon Long - MD & Research Analyst

    Justin Trennon Long - MD & Research Analyst

  • Got it. And last question for me is on the used truck market. You talked about that a little bit earlier. But I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color in terms of what you're expecting for the trend in used truck pricing as we move into year-end and early 2024?

    知道了。我的最後一個問題是關於二手卡車市場的。你早些時候談到過這一點。但我想知道,隨著我們進入年底和 2024 年初,您是否可以就您對二手卡車定價趨勢的預期提供更多資訊?

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Sure. Well, we'd probably come down same like-for-like 4-, 5-year-old trucks year-over-year September, October, let's say, around that time frame, 35% in value. There may be another 10% to take out or so, I'm guessing? I don't -- it'd be hard for me to see it go much more because what happens is that spread between new and used gets -- I guess, too large as all of a sudden, you can go by 3 late model [trucks] for the price of 1 new. So that eventually, when I say that it yes, but whatever that spread creates a value proposition on use when it gets so low.

    當然。好吧,我們可能會在 9 月、10 月期間同比減少 4、5 年車齡的卡車,比方說,在那個時間範圍內,價值下降 35%。我猜可能還有 10% 左右可以拿出來?我不——我很難看到它走得更多,因為發生的情況是新的和二手的之間的差距——我想,突然間太大了,你可以用 3 個後期型號[卡車] 1輛新車的價格。所以最終,當我說是的,但是當它變得如此之低時,無論這種傳播都會創造一個使用價值主張。

  • The problem is, is that the used truck buyers typically the small person, right? Well, they're getting crushed. So you got to have demand, too, okay? You can take price as cheap as you want. Now let's (inaudible) spread looks really enticing. But if you don't have demand because you don't have any market to go lease a truck on some place, it makes it difficult. So eventually, it just takes time.

    問題是,二手卡車買家通常都是小個子,對吧?好吧,他們快被壓垮了。所以你也必須有需求,好嗎?您可以根據需要選擇便宜的價格。現在讓我們(聽不清楚)傳播看起來真的很誘人。但如果你沒有需求,因為你沒有任何市場可以在某個地方租賃卡車,那就會變得很困難。所以最終,這只是需要時間。

  • So right now, we're -- it's a little to higher. Like I said, depreciation is accelerating not as dramatically as it was, but it's still over what I would call typical depreciation by percentage on a monthly basis. Typically, you don't see it like historically, we're not there yet. It's still a little accelerated. It's that demand piece that we're going to have to get back. So I just -- I don't see anything changing around that until we get maybe -- that we saw out in the spring. And hopefully, we'll do it seasonally, we always do a little better than once we get through winter time.

    所以現在,我們的水平有點高了。就像我說的那樣,折舊的加速速度沒有以前那麼快,但仍然超過了我所說的按月計算的典型折舊率。通常情況下,你不會像歷史上那樣看到它,我們還沒有到達那裡。還是有點加速了。這就是我們必須要拿回的需求部分。所以我只是 - 我沒有看到任何改變,直到我們得到可能 - 我們在春天看到了這一點。希望我們能按季節進行,我們總是比冬季過後做得更好一點。

  • So that's -- I would hope that we would have -- by the time we get through that we would be on a normal depreciation cycle in, say, 4 to 6 months, 6 months from now, something like that. That's what I'm hoping because it's been so accelerated before. But the reason was to accelerate they got way too high when you couldn't get new trucks, right? The money people were paying for used trucks, 1.5 years and 2 years ago is crazy. And so we've had to take all of that back out as we continue to -- now meaning the demand with (inaudible). So used demand is down and used values still down. It's just -- it's a little bit of a business cycle but it should straighten itself out sometime second quarter next year, late for second -- second quarter next year to be safe conservatively.

    所以,我希望我們能夠做到這一點,當我們度過這個時期時,我們將處於正常的折舊週期,比如說,從現在起 4 到 6 個月,6 個月後,類似的情況。這就是我所希望的,因為它之前已經加速了。但原因是加速,當你無法獲得新卡車時,它們就太高了,對嗎? 1.5 年前和 2 年前,人們購買二手卡車的錢太瘋狂了。因此,我們必須繼續取消所有這些內容——現在意味著需求(聽不清楚)。因此,二手需求下降,二手價值仍下降。這只是 - 這是一個商業週期,但它應該會在明年第二季的某個時候自行調整,保守地說,明年第二季會較晚。

  • But we're in good shape. We've got this lower used truck inventory. The upside for us is probably a little less because we're carrying less inventory. But the downside is, okay, we're trying to get our turns. It's always about turns and your turns have to be in line with what demand is. And we feel like we've pretty much got our used truck inventory what we know we do. Our margins were back to typical margins in Q2 and Q3. So we're just going to stay on top of it and be cognizant of the demand that's out there. And we still trade for trucks every day. It's just -- we just have to make sure that we can turn them fast enough because they're not like fine wine, they don't get better with age. So -- but we're -- we're doing a good job of dealing with it right now, but it comes with a tighter controlled inventory because demand is not sometimes, we would have inventories upwards of 2,500 units. I got inventories of 1,300 to 1,500 right now because I don't have the demand to turn a 2,500 unit inventory fast is just out there.

    但我們的狀態很好。我們的二手卡車庫存較低。對我們來說,上行空間可能會小一些,因為我們的庫存較少。但缺點是,好吧,我們正在努力輪到我們。這始終與轉彎有關,而您的轉彎必須符合需求。我們覺得我們已經擁有了我們所知道的二手卡車庫存。我們的利潤率回到了第二季和第三季的典型利潤率。因此,我們將繼續關注並了解那裡的需求。我們仍然每天交易卡車。只是——我們必須確保我們能夠足夠快地轉動它們,因為它們不像優質葡萄酒,它們不會隨著年齡的增長而變得更好。所以,但我們現在處理得很好,但庫存控制更嚴格,因為有時需求不足,我們的庫存將超過 2,500 件。我現在有 1,300 到 1,500 件的庫存,因為我沒有快速週轉 2,500 件庫存的需求。

  • So -- but that allows us to still maintain a decent margin, and we'll monitor the market closely. And as it was to start picking up, we'll try to increase in our used truck inventory. But again, it goes back to not just pricing, not just what valuations, it goes back to demand.

    所以——但這使我們仍然可以保持可觀的利潤,並且我們將密切監控市場。隨著情況開始好轉,我們將嘗試增加二手卡車庫存。但同樣,這不僅僅是定價,不僅僅是估值,而是需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Rush for closing remarks.

    謝謝您的提問。現在我想請拉什先生致閉幕詞。

  • W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

    W. Marvin Rush - Chairman of the Board, CEO & President

  • Folks, we appreciate it. Thank you very much. I'd like to wish everyone a very happy holidays and we will speak to you early to mid-February with our Q4 results. So again, thank you very much.

    夥計們,我們很感激。非常感謝。我祝大家假期愉快,我們將在二月初至二月中旬向您介紹我們第四季的結果。再次非常感謝您。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有美好的一天。