Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Sunrun's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded and that one hour has been allocated for the call, including the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Sunrun 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議將被錄音，且本次會議（含問答環節）預留一小時。(接線員指示)

I will now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話會議交給 Sunrun 投資人關係主管 Patrick Jobin。請開始。

Thank you, Alicia. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements related to the expected future results of our company, including our Q4 and full year 2026 financial outlook and other statements that are not historical in nature, are predictive in nature and depend upon or refer to events or conditions such as our expectations, estimates, predictions, strategies, beliefs or other statements that may be considered forward-looking.

謝謝你，Alicia。在我們開始之前，請注意，我們在本次電話會議中所做的某些評論構成前瞻性陳述，涉及本公司預期的未來業績，包括我們對 2026 年第四季及 2026 全年的財務展望，以及其他非歷史性陳述；這些陳述具有預測性，並取決於或涉及事件或條件，例如我們的預期、估計、預測、策略、信念或其他可能被視為前瞻性的陳述。

Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements.

儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於目前已知因素所做的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能出現重大且不利的差異。請參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，以獲得更全面的風險及其他因素討論；這些因素可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的預測有所不同。

Please also note these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. Please note, during this earnings call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP measures, including cash generation, creation costs reflected in operating expenses and creation costs reflected in capital expenditures, which are not measures prepared in accordance with US GAAP.

另請注意，這些陳述係截至今日作出，我們不承擔更新或修訂之任何義務。請注意，在本次財報電話會議中，我們可能會提及若干非 GAAP 指標，包括現金產生、反映於營業費用中的創造成本，以及反映於資本支出中的創造成本；這些並非依照美國 GAAP 編製的衡量指標。

These non-GAAP measures are being presented because we believe they provide investors with a means of evaluating and understanding how the company's management evaluates the company's operating performance.

我們呈列這些非 GAAP 指標，是因為我們相信它們可為投資人提供一種評估並理解公司管理層如何評估公司營運表現的方法。

Reconciliation of these measures can be found in our earnings press release and other investor materials available on the company's Investor Relations website and accompanying this webcast. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with US GAAP.

這些指標的調節表可見於我們的財報新聞稿及其他投資人資料，相關資料可於公司投資人關係網站上取得，並隨本次網路直播一併提供。這些非 GAAP 指標不應被孤立看待，亦不應被視為可替代或優於依照美國 GAAP 編製的財務指標。

On the call today is Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; Paul Dickson, Sunrun's President and Chief Revenue Officer; and Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO. The presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website along with supplemental accompanying materials.

今天參與電話會議的有 Sunrun 執行長 Mary Powell；Sunrun 總裁兼首席營收長 Paul Dickson；以及 Sunrun 財務長 Danny Abajian。簡報可於 Sunrun 投資人關係網站取得，並附有補充資料。

An audio replay of today's call, along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcript, including Q&A, will be posted to Sunrun's Investor Relations website shortly after the call. Now let me turn the call over to Mary.

今日電話會議的音訊重播，以及今日預先準備的講稿與逐字稿（含問答），將於會後不久發布於 Sunrun 投資人關係網站。現在讓我把電話會議交給 Mary。

Thank you, Patrick, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm pleased to report Sunrun's direct business is growing. This business results in improving margins, higher customer satisfaction and higher quality assets. We are back to growth in our direct sales activities compared to the prior year in Q3 and most recently in October.

謝謝你，Patrick，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。我很高興報告，Sunrun 的直營業務正在成長。這項業務帶來毛利率改善、更高的客戶滿意度以及更高品質的資產。相較去年，我們在第三季以及最近的 10 月，直銷活動已重回成長。

We expect to exit this year with continued growth. We successfully reset our affiliate business with partners that can meet our rigorous standards and that we are excited to grow with. We achieved a record 75% storage attachment rate in Q3. We increased our upfront net subscriber value margins considerably, expanding from $2,000 per subscriber in Q2 to over $3,700 in Q3.

我們預期今年結束時仍將維持成長動能。我們已成功重整聯盟（affiliate）業務，與能符合我們嚴格標準、且我們期待共同成長的合作夥伴合作。我們在第三季達成創紀錄的 75% 儲能搭載率。我們大幅提升前期淨訂戶價值（net subscriber value）毛利率，從第二季每位訂戶 2,000 美元擴大至第三季超過 3,700 美元。

This represents a margin of about 7% of contracted subscriber value. We also delivered positive cash generation again in Q3, generating $56 million, excluding investments in equipment for safe harbor activities and expect to have robust cash generation in Q4.

這約相當於簽約訂戶價值的 7% 毛利率。我們在第三季也再次實現正向現金產生，產生 5,600 萬美元（不含為安全港（safe harbor）活動所進行的設備投資），並預期第四季將有強勁的現金產生。

We reduced our parent debt further in the quarter, reducing debt by over $100 million year-to-date. Recent increases in interest rates, combined with persistent slightly below expectation sales onboarding has led us to anchor on the low end of our cash generation expectation for the full year. Paul will discuss our sales activities and growth outlook in more detail. Danny will talk through our cash generation outlook.

本季我們進一步降低母公司層級負債，今年迄今已減債超過 1 億美元。近期利率上升，加上銷售導入（onboarding）持續略低於預期，使我們將全年現金產生預期錨定在區間低端。Paul 將更詳細說明我們的銷售活動與成長展望。Danny 將說明我們的現金產生展望。

Before turning to those topics, I want to provide a strategic update on our growing distributed power plant operations. Our energy assets are at the center of a power sector that is in need of energy capacity and where speed to power is critical. Sunrun now has over 5 gigawatt hours of storage capacity installed across the country and is the largest residential independent power producer.

在轉到這些主題之前，我想就我們持續成長的分散式電廠營運提供策略更新。我們的能源資產位於電力產業的核心；該產業亟需能源容量，且「快速供電」至關重要。Sunrun 目前在全美已安裝超過 5 吉瓦時的儲能容量，並且是最大的住宅獨立發電業者。

America needs more power, faster than the traditional grid can deliver it, and Sunrun is well situated to meet that need. Sunrun set new records dispatching energy to the grid, achieving 434 megawatts in a single event.

美國需要更多電力，而且速度要快於傳統電網所能提供；Sunrun 具備良好條件以滿足這項需求。Sunrun 在向電網調度能源方面創下新紀錄，單次事件達到 434 兆瓦。

At the end of Q3, we had installed more than 284,000 storage plus solar systems. We own a valuable network of flexible dispatchable power and are growing it at a rapid pace. Sunrun added more than 1.3 gigawatt hours of storage capacity and dispatched more than 1,000 megawatts of power over the last 12 months across the country.

截至第三季末，我們已安裝超過 284,000 套「儲能加太陽能」系統。我們擁有一個具價值、可彈性調度的電力網路，並正以快速步伐擴張。過去 12 個月，Sunrun 在全美新增超過 1.3 吉瓦時的儲能容量，並調度超過 1,000 兆瓦的電力。

We expect to double the amount of capacity we have online by the end of 2028, grow participation rates substantially and increase revenue per enrolled asset, resulting in meaningful and rapidly growing cash generation. We remain in active communication with utilities, energy market coordinators and hyperscalers about how our resources can bring value to the energy system.

我們預期到 2028 年底，線上容量將倍增，大幅提升參與率，並提高每個已加入資產的單位營收，從而帶來可觀且快速成長的現金產生。我們持續與公用事業公司、能源市場協調機構以及超大規模業者（hyperscalers）保持積極溝通，探討我們的資源如何為能源系統帶來價值。

I also want to touch on the historic outcome of yesterday's elections. Sunrun is well positioned to provide the country the power it needs. Our plan is based on policies that are in place today and does not depend on new policies. That said, yesterday's election paves the way to dramatically accelerate work with key state and federal policymakers to unleash the potential of dispatchable power and distributed compute at significant scale.

我也想談談昨日選舉的歷史性結果。Sunrun 已做好充分準備，為國家提供所需電力。我們的計畫係以目前已實施的政策為基礎，並不依賴新的政策。儘管如此，昨日的選舉為我們與關鍵的州與聯邦政策制定者大幅加速合作鋪路，以在顯著規模上釋放可調度電力與分散式運算的潛力。

This includes advancing and scaling the use of distributed resources to participate fully alongside traditional power infrastructure. Sunrun can deliver the speed to power solutions America needs to support AI growth while strengthening energy affordability and reliability and creating new economic opportunities for customers and communities across the country.

這包括推動並擴大分散式資源的使用，使其能與傳統電力基礎設施並行、充分參與。Sunrun 能提供美國所需的快速供電解決方案，以支持 AI 成長，同時提升能源可負擔性與可靠性，並為全國各地的客戶與社區創造新的經濟機會。

Before handing over to Paul, I want to take a moment to celebrate some of our people who truly embrace our best-in-class team. For this quarter, I want to specifically highlight our team in Illinois. In the third quarter, Illinois installations grew by over 30% compared to the prior year with all systems, including storage. I specifically want to thank Jordan LaPlace, Ahmad Zid, and Kennedy Mott from our Illinois-based team.\\

在交給 Paul 之前，我想花點時間表揚一些真正體現我們一流團隊精神的同仁。本季我想特別表揚我們伊利諾伊州的團隊。第三季，伊利諾伊州的安裝量（包含所有系統與儲能）較去年成長超過 30%。我特別要感謝我們伊利諾伊州團隊的 Jordan LaPlace、Ahmad Zid 與 Kennedy Mott。\\

Jordan has been with Sunrun for over a decade. We are so grateful for his commitment and leadership. I also want to congratulate Ahmad and Kennedy, who were our top Illinois installers during the third quarter. To our entire team in Illinois, thank you and keep up the great work. Paul, over to you.

Jordan 在 Sunrun 已服務超過十年。我們非常感謝他的投入與領導。我也要恭喜 Ahmad 與 Kennedy，他們在第三季是伊利諾伊州表現最優異的安裝人員。致伊利諾伊州的全體團隊，謝謝你們，請繼續保持出色表現。Paul，交給你。

Thanks, Mary. Sunrun is in a great position. We're leading the market with high-quality growth and establishing ways to provide our growing base of over one million customers even more value with additional products and services.

謝謝，Mary。Sunrun 目前處於非常有利的位置。我們以高品質成長引領市場，並建立各種方式，透過更多產品與服務為我們超過一百萬名客戶的持續擴大客群創造更高價值。

First, I want to provide an update on what our sales teams are seeing and hearing on the ground with customers. As energy costs and grid reliability continue to disappoint, customers are eager to lock in their energy costs with a predictable monthly bill and reliable backup power.

首先，我想更新一下我們的銷售團隊在第一線從客戶那裡看到與聽到的情況。隨著能源成本與電網可靠性持續令人失望，客戶渴望以可預測的月帳單鎖定能源成本，並獲得可靠的備援電力。

We have built one of the strongest and most well-regarded sales organizations to capture the demand and convert it into satisfied customers. Our sales have increased by high single digits to low double digits every month compared to the prior year from June through October.

我們已建立起最強大且最受推崇的銷售組織之一，以掌握需求並將其轉化為滿意的客戶。相較去年，從 6 月到 10 月，我們每個月的銷售均增加高個位數到低雙位數百分比。

Our affiliate business has been reset. We are working with a group that we're excited to grow with. These partners share our commitment to high-quality originations and a customer-centric approach. We continue to selectively onboard partners that meet our high-quality standards. New customers are just one of the vectors for growth.

我們的聯盟合作業務已重新調整。我們正與一個我們很期待共同成長的團隊合作。這些合作夥伴與我們同樣致力於高品質的案源開發，以及以客戶為中心的方法。我們持續有選擇性地導入符合我們高品質標準的合作夥伴。新客戶只是成長的其中一個向量。

We're also actively growing our offering to existing customers. We're offering add-on batteries for existing customers and service plans for customers in need of a provider to help monitor and service their system. We're also leveraging our growing fleet to increase recurring cash flow streams from grid service partnerships.

我們也正積極擴大對既有客戶的產品與服務供給。我們為既有客戶提供加裝電池，並為需要供應商協助監控與維護其系統的客戶提供服務方案。我們也運用持續擴大的裝機資產組合，透過電網服務合作夥伴關係增加經常性現金流來源。

One of the areas that we're increasingly excited about is the distributed compute opportunity, placing inference compute on customer sites, including for new homes, multifamily properties and even single-family homes, presents a meaningful opportunity to rapidly scale compute resources and overcome the critical limiting factors for building data centers, power and location.

我們愈來愈感到振奮的一個領域是分散式運算的機會：將推論運算部署在客戶場址上，包括新建住宅、多戶型物業，甚至獨棟住宅，這帶來一個重要機會，可快速擴大運算資源，並克服建置資料中心的關鍵限制因素——電力與選址。

Southern is uniquely advantaged given we inherently are co-locating compute with on-site power. We launched a pilot this summer and continue to explore various opportunities to scale. I'll now turn it to Danny for the financial update.

Southern 具備獨特優勢，因為我們本質上是在現場電力旁進行運算共址。我們在今年夏天啟動了一項試點，並持續探索各種擴大規模的機會。接下來我把時間交給 Danny 進行財務更新。

Thank you, Paul. We added over 24,000 customers in Q3 with average system sizes up 2% from Q2. We achieved a record high 75% storage attachment rate in Q3, up 1 point from Q2. Our volume performance in Q3 represents improved traction in our direct business. Direct installation volumes were up by 17% from Q2 and up by 9% compared to the same period last year.

謝謝你，Paul。我們在第三季新增超過 24,000 名客戶，平均系統規模較第二季增加 2%。我們在第三季達成創新高的 75% 儲能搭載率，較第二季提升 1 個百分點。第三季的量能表現顯示我們直營業務的動能有所改善。直營安裝量較第二季成長 17%，較去年同期成長 9%。

Affiliate volume was up nearly 20% in Q3 compared to Q2, but down 67% year-over-year, driven both by our decisions to scale back our affiliate partnerships earlier in the year and by continued challenges in the dealer ecosystem.

第三季聯盟合作量較第二季增加近 20%，但年減 67%，主要受我們年初決定縮減聯盟合作夥伴關係，以及經銷商生態系持續面臨挑戰所影響。

We continue to expect volumes from the affiliate channel to be down by more than 60% for the full year. We expect our direct business volumes to comprise approximately 85% to 90% of our total installation volume mix for the year. Aggregate contracted subscriber value was $1.2 billion in Q3.

我們仍預期聯盟合作通路的全年量能將下滑超過 60%。我們預期今年直營業務量能將約占全年總安裝量組合的 85% 至 90%。第三季整體簽約訂戶價值為 12 億美元。

On a unit basis, contracted subscriber value was approximately $52,500, up 8% year-over-year, driven by larger average system sizes, increased pricing, a higher storage attachment rate and a higher average ITC level, partially offset by a higher discount rate.

以單位計，簽約訂戶價值約為 52,500 美元，年增 8%，主要由平均系統規模更大、價格上調、儲能搭載率提高，以及平均 ITC 水準提高所帶動，但部分被較高的折現率所抵銷。

We estimate upfront proceeds will be approximately 49,600 per subscriber after applying an advance rate of 94% against aggregate contracted subscriber value. We estimate upfront net subscriber value of approximately $3,700, representing a margin as a percentage of contracted subscriber value of approximately 7%. This figure increased by over 3 percentage points from last quarter.

在對整體簽約訂戶價值套用 94% 的預支比率後，我們估計每位訂戶的前期入帳款項約為 49,600 美元。我們估計每位訂戶的前期淨訂戶價值約為 3,700 美元，約相當於簽約訂戶價值的 7% 毛利率。此數字較上季提高超過 3 個百分點。

Cash generation was $6 million in Q3 or $56 million, excluding $50 million of net investment in equipment safe harboring. Cash generation is a non-GAAP metric. Please reference the earnings release and other associated Investor Relations materials published today for a reconciliation to its most directly comparable GAAP measure, cash provided by operating activities.

第三季現金創造為 600 萬美元；若排除 5,000 萬美元用於設備 safe harbor（安全港）安排的淨投資，則為 5,600 萬美元。現金創造為非 GAAP 指標。請參考今日發布的財報新聞稿及其他相關投資人關係資料，以取得與最直接可比 GAAP 指標（營業活動提供之現金）之調節。

We have invested $100 million in our equipment safe harboring activities through the third quarter. In Q4, we expect to increase financing on these assets, resulting in a cash inflow that would reduce our net investment in safe harboring activities to approximately $60 million to $70 million for the full year.

截至第三季，我們在設備 safe harbor 安排上已投資 1 億美元。在第四季，我們預期提高這些資產的融資，帶來現金流入，使全年在 safe harbor 安排上的淨投資降至約 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。

Turning now to our activity in the capital markets. Summer is executing well, and we have built a strong pipeline of transactions. We have seen accelerating demand for tax credits with the vast majority of our 2026 tax credit supply spoken for with closed transactions or advanced discussions and early engagement with potential buyers of 2027 credits has picked up materially. We have seen ITC pricing during the quarter remain relatively stable in the high $0.80s to low $0.90 range.

接著談我們在資本市場的活動。Summer 執行表現良好，我們也建立了強勁的交易管線。我們看到對稅額抵免的需求加速成長，我們 2026 年稅額抵免供給絕大多數已透過已完成交易或深入洽談而被預訂；同時，與 2027 年抵免潛在買方的早期接觸也明顯增加。我們看到本季 ITC 定價大致維持穩定，落在每美元高 0.80 多至低 0.90 多的區間。

As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity or equivalent to fund approximately 980 megawatts of projects for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the third quarter. We also have over $661 million in unused commitments available in our nonrecourse senior revolving warehouse loan to fund over 269 megawatts of projects for retained subscribers as of the end of Q3.

截至今日，已完成交易與已簽署的條款書為我們提供預期的稅務股權（tax equity）額度或同等資金，可用於資助第三季之前已部署量之外、約 980 兆瓦的訂戶專案。此外，截至第三季末，我們在無追索權的優先循環倉儲貸款中仍有超過 6.61 億美元未動用承諾，可用於資助保留訂戶（retained subscribers）約 269 兆瓦的專案。

Year-to-date, we have raised approximately $1.5 billion in nonrecourse asset level debt financing. We have seen credit spreads decline to the low 200 area and continue to see robust demand for our securitizations in the private and public markets.

年初至今，我們已募集約 15 億美元的無追索權資產層級債務融資。我們看到信用利差下降至 200 多個基點的低端區間，且在私募與公募市場對我們證券化產品的需求仍然強勁。

Approximately 46% of our subscriber additions in Q3 were monetized through the non-retained or partially retained model. As a reminder, proceeds from these transactions are equal to or better than our on-balance sheet retained monetization while also providing simpler GAAP treatment and further diversification of capital sources. Under the joint venture structure, we retain a share of long-term cash flows from these assets, along with grid services and the ability to cross-sell customers.

第三季新增訂戶中，約 46% 透過非保留或部分保留模式進行變現。提醒一下，這些交易的資金入帳與（或優於）我們在資產負債表內保留模式的變現，同時也帶來更簡化的 GAAP 會計處理，並進一步分散資金來源。在合資架構下，我們保留這些資產的部分長期現金流，並保有電網服務以及對客戶交叉銷售的能力。

Turning to our outlook on slide 24. We have slightly reduced our volume outlook for the full year, driven by modestly lower pacing than we had forecasted earlier. Our direct sales growth rates in recent months have ranged from high single digits to low double digits year-over-year, but remain a few percentage points lower than we had previously forecasted. In addition to these volume trends, sustained higher interest rates have also modestly impacted our expected full year 2026 results.

接著看第 24 頁投影片的展望。由於近期進度略低於我們先前的預測，我們小幅下調全年量能展望。近幾個月我們直銷成長率介於年增高個位數到低雙位數，但仍比我們先前預測低了幾個百分點。除上述量能趨勢外，利率長期維持較高水準也對我們預期的 2026 全年結果造成些微影響。

Owing to these factors, we are revising our aggregate subscriber value guidance to approximately $4.6 billion for the full year compared to our prior guidance of $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion. We are also revising our cash generation guidance to approximately $200 million for the full year before net investments in safe harbor equipment of $60 million to $70 million.

基於上述因素，我們將全年整體訂戶價值指引修正為約 46 億美元，先前指引為 46 億至 49 億美元。我們也將全年現金創造指引修正為約 2 億美元（在設備 safe harbor 淨投資 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元之前）。

This compares to our prior guidance of $200 million to $375. We expect to produce meaningfully positive cash generation in 2027. There are a few puts and takes as we look out into next year. Given the adjustments we made in the affiliate business earlier this year and the sales growth we are seeing in our direct business, we expect to grow overall installation volumes in 2027.

這與我們先前 2 億至 3.75 億美元的指引相比有所下調。我們預期在 2027 年產生顯著為正的現金創造。展望明年，有幾項因素此消彼長。鑑於我們今年稍早對聯盟合作業務所做的調整，以及我們在直營業務看到的銷售成長，我們預期 2027 年整體安裝量將成長。

The industry is facing a few new headwinds, including elevated ITC insurance costs, which impacts proceeds by a point or two. The industry will also incur a property tax in California for new systems deployed starting January 1, which Sunrun has already partially offset with recent price increases.

產業正面臨一些新的逆風，包括 ITC 保險成本居高不下，這會使資金入帳影響約 1 到 2 個百分點。此外，自 1 月 1 日起，加州對新部署系統將課徵財產稅；Sunrun 已透過近期調價部分抵銷其影響。

To the extent interest rates are sustained at current levels, our capital costs would increase from levels realized throughout 2026. We expect to increase prices further in 2027 as utility rates continue to rise. We will provide more details and formal 2027 guidance on our Q4 call in February.

若利率維持在目前水準，我們的資金成本將高於 2026 年期間所實現的水準。隨著公用事業電價持續上升，我們預期在 2027 年進一步提高價格。我們將在 2 月的第四季電話會議中提供更多細節與正式的 2027 年指引。

We expect to continue to allocate cash generation to reduce parent leverage, and we'll provide further updates on this topic on our next call. In the coming quarters, we will evaluate additional value-accretive capital allocation strategies depending on the market environment and our outlook. Operator, you can now open the line for questions.

我們預期將持續把現金創造用於降低母公司槓桿，並會在下次電話會議中就此主題提供進一步更新。在接下來幾季，我們將視市場環境與展望，評估其他可提升價值的資本配置策略。接線員，現在可以開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith，Jefferies。

This is Carter on for Julien. Just thinking about 2027 cash generation, I'm wondering how you think about price elasticity of demand. I know there's a lot of moving pieces here. But thinking through how much room you guys have increased price while still growing volumes in '27, assuming interest rates sustain where they are today, and you have some higher capital costs potentially to offset.

我是 Carter，代 Julien 發問。在思考 2027 年的現金產生能力時，我想請教你們如何看待需求的價格彈性。我知道這裡有很多變動因素。但如果從你們在 2027 年仍能在成長出貨量的同時提高價格的空間來看——假設利率維持在目前水準，且你們可能需要抵銷一些較高的資本成本——你們怎麼評估？

And maybe within that, if you could talk through the response to some of the recent price increases in California, that would be helpful as well.

另外，若你們也能談談近期在加州的一些漲價所引發的反應，那也會很有幫助。

Sure. Great to hear from you. So I mean, we expect our business to grow in 2027, and we are going to be focused on quality and margins. So we continue to see strong demand for the product. As we mentioned, we've already built in some of the pricing adjustments for some of the factors we discussed. But Danny, why don't you go into a little bit more detail?

當然。很高興聽到你的提問。我們預期 2027 年業務會成長，而我們將聚焦在品質與利潤率。因此我們仍持續看到產品的強勁需求。如同我們提到的，我們已經把針對一些我們討論過的因素所做的價格調整納入規劃。不過 Danny，你要不要再補充更詳細一些？

Yes. I think we're taking a kind of a measured approach to the pricing increases, definitely observing utility rates, their trends. Of course, we operate in many geographies, which have individual utility price trends. And like we do have that diversification aspect of being able to also raise price in various geographies as we see those trends play out.

好的。我認為我們對於漲價採取相對審慎、循序漸進的做法，並且確實在觀察公用事業費率及其趨勢。當然，我們在許多地理區域營運，各地的公用事業價格趨勢各不相同。而我們也具備多元化的優勢，能夠在不同地區隨著趨勢發展而調整、提高價格。

So I'd say from a starting standpoint in 2026, we've actioned some pricing increases. I mentioned California, a few other markets as well. I think we're seeing the fastest pace of rate growth in a few East Coast markets as well, and we've taken action there as well. And we continue to watch volume trends, and we'll continue to calibrate to that all year into next year.

所以我會說，以 2026 年作為起點，我們已經採取了一些漲價措施。我提到過加州，還有其他幾個市場也是如此。我認為在一些東岸市場，我們也看到費率成長速度最快，我們也在那裡採取了行動。同時我們會持續觀察量的趨勢，並在今年到明年持續校準調整。

Great. And just a follow-up, more on the policy side. Maybe just on the draft permitting bill, there was some interesting language in there around behind-the-meter distributed energy systems mandating wholesale market access there, which I think got a little bit overlooked at points in this bill. Just curious your thoughts on permitting reform in general, what it can mean for you and maybe just some of this language on behind-the-meter DERs.

很好。再追問一題，偏政策面。關於許可（permitting）法案草案，其中有一些有趣的文字，提到表後（behind-the-meter）的分散式能源系統必須取得批發市場的准入；我覺得這點在法案討論中有時被忽略了。想請教你們對整體許可改革的看法，它對你們可能意味著什麼，以及對這些表後 DER（分散式能源資源）條文的看法。

Yes. We are very supportive as we view it as a durable and structural solution for integrating distributed power plants into demand response. So we see the permitting bill as a very positive development. It serves as a great bridge from state-funded programs where we've demonstrated effectiveness to permanently integrating distributed power plants into, as an example, California's resource adequacy program.

是的。我們非常支持，因為我們認為這是把分散式電廠整合進需求反應（demand response）的長期且結構性的解方。因此我們把這項許可法案視為非常正面的發展。它在州政府資助的計畫（我們已在其中證明成效）與將分散式電廠永久整合進例如加州的資源充足性（resource adequacy）計畫之間，扮演了很好的橋樑。

So in terms of impact, it's too early to know exactly, but we are very pleased directionally with what it means for the business.

至於影響程度，現在要精確判斷還太早，但就方向而言，我們對它對業務的意義感到非常滿意。

Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.

Brian Lee，高盛。

I guess on the Tesla Renew consortium, I'd be curious, I know it's only 1.5 quarters old, but any updates or even customer engagement data points you can share on how that's going, maybe high level, how we should also be thinking about how it will play into your growth and potentially cash generation for 2027?

我想就 Tesla Renew 聯盟（consortium）來問一下。我知道它才成立大約 1.5 個季度，但你們是否有任何更新，或能分享一些客戶互動的數據點，說明目前進展如何？也想請你們從較高層次談談，我們應該如何看待它對你們 2027 年成長以及可能的現金產生能力的影響？

Yes. We're really pleased with it. We're already, as we cited, having many conversations about ways to deploy our resources together. And in fact, in this quarter, we also had that proof point with the PG&E Google deal, where the Tesla Renew Sunrun partnership was a key part of that announcement and a part of a Google-funded proof of concept. So we saw that as very powerful. So yes, we're very bullish on it. We're having some really good conversations that will bear fruit.

是的。我們對此非常滿意。如同我們提到的，我們已經在進行許多對話，討論如何共同部署我們的資源。事實上，在本季度我們也有一個實證案例：PG&E 與 Google 的合作案，其中 Tesla Renew 與 Sunrun 的合作夥伴關係是該公告的關鍵部分，也是由 Google 出資的概念驗證（proof of concept）的一部分。因此我們認為那非常有力。所以是的，我們對此非常看多。我們正在進行一些非常好的對話，之後會開花結果。

All right. Fair enough. We'll keep tracking the progress. Maybe switching gears to the core business here. It sounds like you're very encouraged and there's positive momentum behind the direct business. And now you've kind of gotten to a reset point on the affiliate channel segment that you seem happy with. Is there any decision tree here where you decide to maybe fully exit the affiliate business?

好的。了解。我們會持續追蹤進展。接著把焦點轉回核心業務。聽起來你們對直營業務非常受鼓舞，且有正向動能。而你們似乎也已經把加盟（affiliate）通路那一塊調整到一個你們滿意的重置點。這裡是否有任何決策樹，讓你們可能決定完全退出加盟業務？

Or maybe the strategic rationale to keep some base level of exposure there as we think about kind of the growth pathway into '27? And then just in relation to that, is it fair to assume that you said 2027, you're expecting customer additions to grow year-on-year. Is the first quarter where we kind of see year-on-year growth between both affiliate and direct be up year-on-year? Maybe that's a 2Q event where we start to see the overall business go back into growth mode given that's about the time you reset the affiliate business this year?

或者，從策略角度來看，為什麼要保留某個基礎程度的曝險，以便我們思考到 2027 年的成長路徑？另外，關於你們提到 2027 年預期客戶新增數會年增，是否可以合理假設：第一個能看到加盟與直營合計都呈現年增的季度會是哪一季？也就是說，第一季會看到兩者合計年增嗎？還是要到第二季才會看到整體業務回到成長模式，因為你們今年大約就是在那個時間點重置了加盟業務？

I would say, when we did the reset, we were very clear that it was about working with partners that could meet our rigorous standards in delivering high-quality assets and a high-quality customer experience. So we're pleased like we've done that reset.

我會說，當我們進行重置時，我們非常清楚地表明，重點在於與能符合我們嚴格標準的合作夥伴合作，以交付高品質資產與高品質的客戶體驗。因此我們很高興已完成這次重置。

We've got some great partners that we want to grow with, and we're looking forward to growing with them. Yes, we also do expect to see year-over-year growth. And Paul, why don't you talk a little bit specifically about that?

我們有一些很棒的合作夥伴，我們希望與他們一起成長，也很期待與他們共同成長。是的，我們也確實預期會看到年增成長。Paul，你要不要更具體談一下？

So I think, we're seeing some really exciting pockets, markets like Illinois, Texas, New Jersey are growing greater than 25% year-over-year right now. And so we're picking up a lot of momentum in several of our most key markets. And I think on the affiliate side, as Mary said, it's a model that we like.

我認為我們在一些非常令人振奮的區塊看到成長，例如伊利諾伊、德州、新澤西等市場，目前年增都超過 25%。因此我們在幾個最關鍵的市場正累積很大的動能。至於加盟端，如 Mary 所說，這是我們喜歡的一種模式。

But as the energy rate markets got more complex and our focus around customer compliance and delivering an excellent customer experience as we transitioned into being this independent power producer and playing in that broader scale became more important to us, our standards for that increased as well.

但隨著能源費率市場變得更複雜，以及當我們轉型成為獨立電力生產商（independent power producer）並在更大規模的市場中運作時，我們對客戶合規與提供卓越客戶體驗的重視程度提高，對合作夥伴的標準也隨之提高。

And so no, there is no plan to exit the affiliate business altogether. We are really excited about the group of partners we're working with. There's a few of people that are under evaluation to add as well, and we're seeing some really good momentum out of that business with partners who have made the necessary adjustments to align to the standard of quality that we need. It's likely that in Q2, all routes will be growing.

因此，不，我們沒有計畫完全退出加盟業務。我們對目前合作的夥伴群非常興奮。另外也有幾位正在評估中、可能加入的夥伴；而對於那些已做出必要調整、以符合我們所需品質標準的夥伴，我們看到該業務有很好的動能。很可能在第二季，所有路徑都會成長。

So from affiliate across all of our direct routes. And that's kind of what I would expect from a year-over-year perspective going into and through 2027.

也就是從加盟端到我們所有直營路徑都會成長。這大致就是我對年增角度、進入並貫穿 2027 年的預期。

Philip Shen, ROTH Capital Partners.

Philip Shen，ROTH Capital Partners。

First one, with the election and the Blue Wave. I wanted to just check in with you on your thoughts on the potential for an ITC extension and with the new Congress. Do you see a reasonable chance that, that could happen? And I know you've safe harbored a lot of volumes.

第一題，關於選舉以及「藍潮」（Blue Wave）。我想跟你們確認一下，你們對於在新一屆國會下投資稅額抵免（ITC）延長的可能性有何看法。你們認為這有合理機會發生嗎？我也知道你們已經以 safe harbor 方式鎖定了不少量。

So maybe from your standpoint, it actually doesn't matter, or at least maybe it doesn't impact your near-term '27, '28. But if there were an ITC extension, what do you think that could do for your business in the near term and medium term?

所以也許從你們的角度看，這其實無關緊要，或至少對你們短期的 2027、2028 影響不大。但如果 ITC 真的延長，你認為這在短期與中期可能會對你們的業務帶來什麼影響？

Yes. Great question. I mean, as I mentioned, we're excited about the opportunity to find ways to accelerate our business. I think there will be key opportunities with the election results to really accelerate the work we're already doing to unlock distributed power plant activities across the country. And that really is significant when you think about the shorter and longer-term cash generation opportunity for Sunrun.

是的。問得很好。我的意思是，如我提到的，我們對於尋找加速業務的方法所帶來的機會感到振奮。我認為，隨著選舉結果出爐，將會出現一些關鍵機會，真正加速我們已在推動的工作，以在全國各地釋放分散式電廠（DPP）活動。當你想到 Sunrun 在短期與長期的現金創造機會時，這確實非常重要。

So I would say that is first and foremost. As you also know, like we've built the business to operate strong with existing policies, and we're very prepared for that. From a logical perspective, does the kind of historic event we had last night suggest that things like that extension grow in likelihood, I would say the answer is yes.

所以我會說，這是首要重點。如你也知道，我們建立這項業務時就已能在既有政策下強健運作，我們也為此做好了充分準備。從邏輯角度來看，昨晚那種歷史性事件是否意味著像延長這類事情的可能性提高？我會說答案是肯定的。

From a Sunrun perspective, we're sitting in a great spot. We're working with existing policies. We have a strong plan. We have ways to create additional cash generation through our distributed power plant activities and other activities we're doing. So I would say we're in a strong position no matter what happens. But that's not illogical for some to be making that kind of conclusion.

就 Sunrun 而言，我們目前處於非常有利的位置。我們是在既有政策下運作。我們有一個強而有力的計畫。我們也有方法透過分散式電廠活動以及我們正在進行的其他活動來創造額外的現金。所以我會說，不論發生什麼事，我們都處於強勢地位。但對某些人而言得出那樣的結論，也並非不合邏輯。

Great. And then back on cash generation, I think you said in your prepared remarks that there could be meaningful growth or meaningful cash generation, not necessarily growth. But with the '27 outlook of having some growth, would you expect the rate of cash gen in '27 to mirror your subscriber growth in '27? Or do you think there could be some operating leverage or leverage in general to drive that cash gen growth higher, faster than the subscriber growth?

很好。接著回到現金創造，我想你在事先準備的發言中提到，可能會有顯著的成長或顯著的現金創造，不一定是成長。但在你們對 2027 年展望有一些成長的情況下，你是否預期 2027 年的現金創造速度會與 2027 年的訂戶成長相呼應？或者你認為可能會有一些營運槓桿或一般性的槓桿，使現金創造的成長高於、快於訂戶成長？

Yes. I think there's a balance of factors outlined a few of them on the call. From a headline kind of unit volume growth perspective, operating cost leverage and just extra margin from more installation units is helpful.

是的。我認為這之間有多項因素的平衡，我在電話會議上概述了其中幾項。從較醒目的單位量成長角度來看，營運成本槓桿，以及因安裝單位增加而帶來的額外毛利，都是有幫助的。

Of course, we're also balancing that with what's going on with interest rates, some of the more nuanced factors relating to ITC insurance in that market going through a moment of repricing and then we talked a little bit about on the earlier part of the call as well about continued kind of further pricing increases as we roll through the period.

當然，我們也在權衡利率走勢、與投資稅額抵免（ITC）保險相關的一些較細緻因素（該市場正經歷一段重新定價的時期），以及我們在本次電話會議較早部分也稍微談到的，隨著時間推進持續進一步的價格上調。

So I would say in terms of like more specifics on the magnitude, we'd like to reserve on that until we can come with a range on the next call, which we plan to do. But those are a few factors we're looking at, at the moment. Distributed power plants would be another factor next year as well.

所以我會說，就幅度等更具體的細節而言，我們希望先保留，等到下一次電話會議我們能提供一個區間時再說明，我們也計畫那時提供。但以上是我們目前正在觀察的幾個因素。分散式電廠明年也會是另一個因素。

Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

Colin Rusch，Oppenheimer。

Can you talk a little bit about the shifts that you've seen in the last month or so in the financing market, just given all the exposure in the data center market and lack of capital availability due to the demand for data centers and how that might shift here given what you're seeing with some of the moratoriums that passed yesterday?

鑑於資料中心市場的曝險，以及因資料中心需求導致資本可得性不足，能否談談你們在過去一個月左右於融資市場看到的一些變化？以及考量到你們看到昨天通過的一些暫停令（moratoriums），這裡可能會如何轉變？

Yes. The asset level capital markets, just covering that, I would say, putting aside the change in base interest rates. I think we've actually seen a directional improvement throughout the year. And I'd say that spans the debt capital markets, mostly the private and public securitization market for us and the tax equity market and specifically the ITC transfer market. So all have directionally improved throughout the year. Again, cost of capital also being offset by higher base rates.

是的。就資產層級資本市場而言，先撇開基準利率的變動不談。我認為我們其實在全年看到方向性的改善。我會說這涵蓋了債務資本市場（對我們而言主要是私募與公開的證券化市場）、稅務股權市場，以及特別是 ITC 轉讓市場。所以這些市場全年都呈現方向性的改善。當然，資金成本也同時受到較高基準利率的抵銷影響。

But from a demand perspective, things have looked quite good. The trailing area in the mix has been on the ITC transfer side, where we've noted kind of consistently, there has been a flow of activity. It has been going back to last year, second half of last year, slower first quarter picked up. Second quarter more noticeably picked up.

但從需求面來看，情況相當不錯。在組合中相對落後的部分是 ITC 轉讓端；我們也一再提到，那裡一直有活動流量。回到去年、去年下半年，第一季較慢但後來回升。第二季回升更為明顯。

Third and fourth quarter, we're seeing a lot of buyer activity with very good engagement and lots of desire and appetite for people on their 2026 tax credit planning and lots of conversations around 2027 as well. So that has been looking like as you would expect, if you pick up some of the external broker research covering that market as well. The guidance is still out there.

第三季與第四季，我們看到很多買方活動，互動非常良好，且大家對於 2026 年稅額抵免規劃有很強的意願與胃納，也有許多關於 2027 年的討論。所以這看起來符合你的預期；如果你參考一些外部券商研究對該市場的覆蓋，也會是同樣的結論。指引仍然存在。

We think at this point, there's ample supply in the market that would generate more appetite for tax equity once that uncertainty clears up on the segment of buyers within the market that are impacted from it.

我們認為在此時點，市場上有充足的供給；一旦不確定性在市場中受其影響的那部分買方族群上消除，就會帶動對稅務股權更高的需求。

Excellent. And then now that you've seen a number of years of performance of the energy storage systems and incremental power management as folks get more comfortable with the distributed power plant model.

非常好。接著，現在你們已經看到能源儲存系統與增量電力管理在多年的表現，且隨著大家對分散式電廠模式越來越熟悉。

Can you talk about shifts or needs that you're seeing from a hardware perspective to meet those needs more effectively or vendors that you might want to get more leverage to because performance is advantaged and you can do a few other things out with the portfolio level impacts?

能否談談從硬體角度，你們看到哪些變化或需求，能更有效地滿足這些需求？或是有哪些供應商你們可能希望取得更多槓桿，因為其效能具優勢，且你們也能在投資組合層級影響方面做一些其他事情？

Yes. So one of the investments that we made pretty early on as we entered the distributed power plant space was to build our own connectivity and enter really thoughtful agreements with hardware providers, ensuring that we have the ability to deploy hardware and control the hardware in a way that would meet the needs of utility companies requesting the power.

是的。我們在很早期進入分散式電廠領域時所做的一項投資，就是建立我們自己的連線能力，並與硬體供應商簽訂非常周全的協議，確保我們有能力部署硬體並以能滿足公用事業公司（電力公司）調度用電需求的方式來控制硬體。

And so we actually feel like we have a very well structured and nimble access to dispatch our power based on the varying needs of different off takers.

Yes. So we're really well positioned to, again, act as the nation's largest residential independent power producer. So like any IPP, we've built systems and structures so that we can respond in the grid requirements of different parts of the country in terms of speed, whether it's x minutes that you need to dispatch, et cetera. So we're really in a good position with the hardware we have, as Paul described.

And I think it even goes with our investment in partnership with Lunar, a lot of connectivity and collaboration there, great relationship with Tesla. So the battery providers are really great partners in shared vision on accelerating the outcomes here with distributed power plants.

Vikram Bagri, Citi.

It's Ted on for Vik. Just in terms of the cash generation guidance this year in terms of the reduction, are you able just to parse out a little bit more how much of the reduction was from the lower volume outlook versus due to the higher rates? We would have expected a little bit of a larger impact from rates just based on the disclosed sensitivities. But any additional color there would be helpful.

Yes. I would say going back to where we started out the year. The predominant factor here is on the change in volume outlook, much more so than rates. Rates did have an impact, but the impact was gradual through the year, probably a bit more sudden when you look at Q3, but we're weighting that to partial year periods. So rates become a lesser impact. Again, the vast majority driver at this point would be volume.

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.