Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to Sunrun's first quarter earnings conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded, and that one-hour has been allocated for the call, including the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Sunrun 第一季財報電話會議。請注意，本次通話正在錄音，通話時間（包括問答環節）已分配一小時。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Investor Relations Officer.

現在我將電話轉給 Sunrun 的投資者關係官 Patrick Jobin。

Thank you, Alisha. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely.

謝謝你，艾莉莎。在我們開始之前，請注意，我們在本次電話會議上發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些聲明反映了我們根據目前已知的因素做出的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大不利差異。

Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements. Please also note these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

請參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以獲得有關可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的預測不同的風險和其他因素的更全面討論。另請注意，這些聲明均截至今日作出，我們不承擔更新或修改它們的任何義務。

On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; Paul Dickson, Sunrun's President and Chief Revenue Officer; and Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO. A presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website along with supplemental materials. An audio replay of today's call, along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcript including Q&A, will be posted to the Sunrun Investor Relations website shortly after the call.

今天參加電話會議的有 Sunrun 執行長 Mary Powell； Sunrun 總裁兼首席營收長 Paul Dickson；以及 Sunrun 財務長 Danny Abajian。Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上提供了簡報以及補充資料。今天的電話會議的音訊回放以及今天準備好的發言和包括問答在內的記錄副本將在電話會議結束後不久發佈到 Sunrun 投資者關係網站上。

And now let me turn the call to Mary.

現在讓我把電話轉給瑪莉。

Thank you, Patrick, and thank you all for joining us today. In the first quarter, we exceeded our volume and cash generation targets in what is seasonally the slowest quarter of the year. We generated $56 million in cash, our fourth consecutive quarter of positive cash generation.

謝謝你，派崔克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。第一季度，我們超額完成了銷售和現金產生目標，而這一季度是全年業務最淡的一個季度。我們產生了 5,600 萬美元的現金，這是我們連續第四個季度實現正現金產生。

We delivered market share gains and continued delevering, paying down our parent debt by $27 million. We ended Q1 with $605 million in unrestricted cash, a $30 million increase from the prior quarter. At the same time, we are excited about the official announcement of our new product, Flex, which Paul will talk about shortly.

我們實現了市場份額的成長，並繼續去槓桿，償還了母公司 2,700 萬美元的債務。我們第一季末擁有 6.05 億美元的非限制現金，比上一季增加了 3,000 萬美元。同時，我們對新產品 Flex 的正式發布感到非常興奮，Paul 稍後將對此進行介紹。

It is a dynamic environment for tax policy and tariffs. These uncertainties make planning difficult and may require significant adjustments for the business. Like many companies across the country, we are controlling what we can and are ready to adapt to changes that may occur. Sunrun has faced periods of major change over the last few years, and we used it as an opportunity to become even stronger. We believe the tariff outlook is manageable, and we will generate meaningful cash this year.

稅收政策和關稅的環境是動態的。這些不確定性使得規劃變得困難，並且可能需要對業務進行重大調整。與全國許多公司一樣，我們正在控制我們所能控制的事情，並準備好適應可能發生的變化。過去幾年，Sunrun 經歷了重大變革，我們利用這個機會變得更強大。我們相信關稅前景是可控的，今年我們將產生可觀的現金。

We are delivering the best product for customers, underwriting volumes with strong unit margins, optimizing our routes to market and driving cost discipline, including leveraging AI for innovation, creating significant operating efficiencies and quality enhancements. This has allowed us to gain considerable market share in recent periods and produce strong operating and financial results.

我們為客戶提供最好的產品，承保具有高單位利潤率的業務量，優化我們的市場路線並推動成本控制，包括利用人工智慧進行創新，創造顯著的營運效率和品質提升。這使得我們在近期獲得了相當大的市場份額，並取得了強勁的營運和財務業績。

Turning to an update on demand. Demand remains strong. In Q1, total customer additions grew 6% compared to the prior year, and more meaningfully, our aggregate subscriber value grew 23% from last year to more than $1.2 billion. This growth was supported by our higher-valued storage offerings and Flex. Customer additions with storage grew by over 46% from Q1 of last year, hitting a record high of 69% storage attachment rate.

轉向按需更新。需求依然強勁。第一季度，我們的新增客戶總數比上年同期成長了 6%，更有意義的是，我們的總用戶價值比去年同期成長了 23%，達到 12 億美元以上。這一增長得益於我們更高價值的儲存產品和 Flex。新增儲能客戶較去年第一季成長逾46%，儲能附著率達69%，創歷史新高。

We are growing our share of consumers' energy spend and have favorable tailwinds with further electrification, increasing grid instability and utility rate escalations. Americans want affordable and reliable energy. We provide a way for them to lock in predictable energy costs and reliability with no money down. Demand for our offering is strong in good times and during periods of weakening consumer confidence or even a recession as Americans look for ways to control what they can.

我們在消費者能源支出中的份額正在不斷增加，隨著電氣化的進一步發展、電網不穩定性不斷增加以及公用事業費率不斷上漲，我們也獲得了有利的順風。美國人想要負擔得起且可靠的能源。我們為他們提供了一種無需首付即可鎖定可預測的能源成本和可靠性的方法。無論是在經濟繁榮時期，還是在消費者信心減弱甚至經濟衰退時期，我們的產品需求都很強勁，因為美國人正在尋找控制其所能控制的東西的方法。

On slide 5, you can see the strong volume growth we are achieving. Sunrun is now a multiproduct company, primarily providing solar and storage systems nearly quadrupling this business in the last two years. Demand for residential solar and storage is strong, and the industry has only penetrated approximately 6% of households.

在第 5 張投影片上，您可以看到我們實現的強勁銷售成長。Sunrun 現在是一家多產品公司，主要提供太陽能和儲能係統，該業務在過去兩年中成長了近四倍。住宅太陽能和儲能的需求強勁，但該行業僅滲透到約 6% 的家庭。

Our approach has led us to gain considerable market share. As you can see on slide 6, we have steadily increased our share to approximately 19% of new solar installations and about 45% on of new storage installations across the country. Leading with a storage-first offering provides numerous financial benefits. Subscribers with storage have higher upfront margins as we are providing a more sophisticated offering that provides additional value to customers, and because it is more complex to sell, design, install and service.

我們的方法使我們獲得了相當大的市場份額。正如您在投影片 6 上看到的，我們的份額已穩步增加到全國新太陽能裝置的約 19% 和新儲存裝置的約 45%。以儲存優先的產品為主導可以帶來許多經濟利益。由於我們提供的服務更加複雜，可以為客戶提供額外的價值，而且銷售、設計、安裝和服務也更加複雜，因此擁有儲存空間的訂戶可以獲得更高的前期利潤。

Over time, storage systems also unlock additional recurring revenue streams as they present valuable energy resources for the grid. While still a nascent business, and small source of revenue today, this will grow significantly in the years ahead.

隨著時間的推移，儲存系統還可以釋放額外的經常性收入來源，因為它們為電網提供了寶貴的能源資源。儘管目前這仍是一項新興業務，收入來源較小，但未來幾年將大幅成長。

Turning to updates on federal policy and the trade situation. We are encouraged that congressional offices understand the economic benefits of energy tax credits, especially given new electricity demand from trends like artificial intelligence.

轉向聯邦政策和貿易形勢的最新消息。我們很高興看到國會辦公室了解能源稅收抵免的經濟效益，特別是考慮到人工智慧等趨勢帶來的新的電力需求。

Interest in residential solar and storage is bipartisan. Our 1 million customers and their representatives in Congress are politically diverse, and they all want more affordable and reliable energy. A growing number of Republicans in Congress, including 39 overall House members and 4 Senators have publicly expressed support for maintaining energy tax credits through various letters over the past few months.

兩黨對住宅太陽能和儲能的興趣一致。我們的 100 萬客戶和他們在國會的代表來自不同的政治立場，他們都希望獲得更實惠、更可靠的能源。過去幾個月，越來越多的國會共和黨人，包括 39 名眾議員和 4 名參議員，透過各種信件公開表示支持維持能源稅收抵免。

Just last week, an additional letter of support for maintaining the technology neutral credit 48E for the benefit of nuclear power was signed by 24 members. This credit is also the same technology neutral credit we utilize. We expect a range of draft proposals to be issued, possibly including some draconian scenarios, but they are expected to be moderated as negotiations progress.

就在上週，24個成員國簽署了一封額外的支持信，支持維持技術中立信用48E，以造福核電。這種信用也是我們所採用的相同技術中立信用。我們預計將發布一系列提案草案，其中可能包括一些嚴厲的方案，但隨著談判的進展，這些提案草案預計將會得到緩和。

As a reminder, Republicans in the House can only lose three votes to pass legislation, and more than 3 dozen as well as four US Senators have been advocating to maintain energy credits. We are actively working through scenario planning and corresponding actions if there are material changes.

需要提醒的是，眾議院共和黨人只需失去三票即可通過立法，並且有超過 30 名共和黨議員和 4 名美國參議員一直主張維持能源信貸。如果出現重大變化，我們正在積極制定情境規劃並採取相應行動。

Actions could include safe harboring with equipment purchases and carrying back geographies. In the past, we have seen industry-wide customer acquisition cost decreased and end consumer prices increased to absorb compression in margin from regulatory changes, and we have a playbook to enact this. These are in addition to our ongoing efforts to drive further cost reductions and further monetize the value of our existing customer base.

可能採取的措施包括透過購買設備和帶回地理位置進行安全庇護。過去，我們看到全行業的客戶獲取成本下降，最終消費者價格上漲，以吸收監管變化帶來的利潤壓縮，我們有一套方案來實施這一目標。這些都是我們持續努力的補充，旨在進一步降低成本並進一步將現有客戶群的價值貨幣化。

Shifting to the current tariff situation. Hardware costs represent about one third of our total costs, and this cost will increase from tariffs. Near term, the effects are mitigated owing to the advanced purchasing we did at the end of 2024. We are also shifting to use more domestically produced equipment, but supply is limited. Currently, about half of our module supply and 100% of inverter and battery supply is sourced domestically, although with input components sourced globally.

轉向當前的關稅情況。硬體成本約占我們總成本的三分之一，而且這成本還會因關稅而增加。從短期來看，由於我們在 2024 年底進行了提前採購，因此影響有所減輕。我們也正在轉向使用更多國產設備，但供應有限。目前，儘管輸入組件來自全球，但大約一半的模組供應以及 100% 的逆變器和電池供應都來自國內。

We do not directly import any solar equipment from China, although producers in China are important for various upstream components used by our suppliers. Any adverse changes to tax and tariff policy, of course, will also impact utilities and create additional pricing headroom.

儘管中國的生產商對於我們供應商使用的各種上游組件至關重要，但我們並未直接從中國進口任何太陽能設備。當然，稅收和關稅政策的任何不利變化也會對公用事業產生影響並產生額外的定價空間。

Lastly, before I turn the call over to Paul, I want to thank all of our Sunrun teams and our partners that are clearly born to run, driving significant results for our customers and shareholders. This quarter, I also want to highlight our AI team. This team is driving enhanced efficiency and customer experience.

最後，在我將電話轉給保羅之前，我想感謝我們所有的 Sunrun 團隊和合作夥伴，他們天生就是為跑步而生的，為我們的客戶和股東帶來了顯著的成果。本季度，我還想重點介紹一下我們的人工智慧團隊。該團隊正在努力提高效率和客戶體驗。

As an example, one of our recent projects includes our system design tool. We have been able to unlock 30% higher efficiency in the design process, improving turnaround times and accuracy, reducing costs and increasing sales realization.

例如，我們最近的一個專案包括我們的系統設計工具。我們已經能夠將設計流程的效率提高 30%，縮短週轉時間並提高準確性，降低成本並提高銷售實現率。

We are working on over 100 AI initiatives across the company. A big shout out to our Chief Technology Officer, Rachit, and the AI team leads, Chok, Edward, Lakshya, Marko, Parker, Terry, Victor, Yahia, thank you so much.

我們正在全公司範圍內開展 1​​00 多項人工智慧計畫。向我們的技術長 Rachit 和 AI 團隊負責人 Chok、Edward、Lakshya、Marko、Parker、Terry、Victor、Yahia 致以最誠摯的謝意，非常感謝你們。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Paul to discuss Sunrun Flex.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給保羅，討論 Sunrun Flex。

Thanks, Mary. One of the reasons we've been gaining significant market share, generating strong unit margins and producing cash is our innovative new product, Sunrun Flex. Flex is the most important financial product innovation the industry has seen since Sunrun introduced the Residential Power Purchase Agreement in 2007.

謝謝，瑪麗。我們獲得顯著市場份額、產生強勁單位利潤率和產生現金的原因之一是我們的創新新產品 Sunrun Flex。Flex 是自 2007 年 Sunrun 推出住宅購電協議以來業界最重要的金融產品創新。

Currently, there are no solar plus storage offerings, cash, loan or subscription that allow customers to plan for their growing energy needs in a flexible, affordable way. Home solar systems have historically been designed to either match a household's current energy usage or be oversized in anticipation of future needs, likely resulting in either unmet needs as energy usage increases or generating solar energy that is not used immediately.

目前，還沒有太陽能加儲能產品、現金、貸款或訂閱服務，讓客戶以靈活、經濟的方式規劃不斷成長的能源需求。家用太陽能係統歷來都是按照滿足家庭當前的能源使用量或為了滿足未來的需求而設計的，這很可能導致能源使用量增加時無法滿足需求或產生的太陽能不能立即使用。

Flex removes any uncertainty, offering a solution that fits families' needs now and in the future. We do this by identifying the customers current energy usage and contracting with them for that amount of generation like we always have. Then we flex up their system by adding additional panels and contract with the customer to buy that power when they use it.

Flex 消除了任何不確定性，提供了適合家庭現在和將來需求的解決方案。我們透過確定客戶當前的能源使用情況並與他們簽訂合約來確定發電量，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣。然後，我們透過添加額外的面板來擴展他們的系統，並與客戶簽訂合同，在他們使用電力時購買電力。

Over our history, we have observed that homes that go solar on average, increase their electrical consumption by 15% within the first year of getting solar. It's also not uncommon for solar customers to adapt an electric vehicle, which drives up their energy consumption even more. This incremental energy consumption is typically coming from the utility at a high cost, or the customer needs to go through the hassle of getting an additional solar system installed.

在我們的歷史上，我們觀察到使用太陽能的家庭在使用太陽能的第一年內，其電力消耗平均增加了 15%。太陽能客戶改用電動車的情況也並不少見，這會進一步增加他們的能源消耗。這種增量能源消耗通常來自高成本的公用事業，或者客戶需要經歷安裝額外太陽能係統的麻煩。

Our offering allows customers to use more electricity in a locked-in affordable rate as they electrify their lifestyles. This means energy is ready for them as they want it at a low rate. If they don't use more electricity beyond their contracted minimum baseline, they don't pay for it.

我們提供的服務使客戶能夠以鎖定的可負擔價格使用更多的電力，使他們的生活方式更加電氣化。這意味著他們已經準備好以低廉的價格獲得所需的能源。如果他們使用的電力沒有超過合約規定的最低限度，他們就不需要付費。

Assuming 100,000 typical customers with Flex use just 15% more electricity, we would generate approximately $20 million per year in additional customer payments repeating every year. We're actively building out home specific insights and education to help our Flex customers make electrification decisions that fit their lifestyle and enable them to tap into more Flex capacity, which is available to them. This will result in many using significantly more than 15%.

假設 10 萬名使用 Flex 的典型客戶僅多使用 15% 的電力，我們每年將產生約 2000 萬美元的額外客戶付款，並且每年都會重複發生。我們正在積極建立針對家庭的見解和教育，以幫助我們的 Flex 客戶做出適合他們生活方式的電氣化決策，並使他們能夠利用更多可用的 Flex 容量。這將導致許多人的使用量遠遠超過 15%。

We include only the baseline contracted amount in our contracted subscriber value and the Flex upside revenues are additive to strong contracted net subscriber values from the product. Since we launched Flex in several pilot markets over the last few months, we have seen over 10,000 or half of Flex eligible customers select Flex over our non-Flex alternative.

我們的合約用戶價值中僅包括基準合約金額，而 Flex 上行收入則會添加到該產品強勁的合約淨用戶價值中。自從我們在過去幾個月在幾個試點市場推出 Flex 以來，我們已經看到超過 10,000 名（即一半的 Flex 合格客戶）選擇 Flex，而不是我們的非 Flex 替代方案。

Since Flex systems are larger, we benefit from cost efficiencies from installing larger systems and therefore, can earn a similar margin to our standard product. If you assume the customers planned consumption increases, we will earn even higher returns from the recurring cash flows.

由於 Flex 系統更大，我們可以從安裝更大的系統中獲益，從而提高成本效益，並因此獲得與標準產品類似的利潤。如果假設客戶的計畫消費增加，我們將從經常性現金流中獲得更高的回報。

Additionally, larger Flex systems are paired with more batteries and the excess storage capacity creates an even more valuable grid resource allowing these distributed batteries to benefit all ratepayers. Sunrun is playing a different game, leading with storage, generating cash and innovating. Flex is only available through Sunrun.

此外，更大的 Flex 系統與更多的電池配對，過剩的儲存容量創造了更有價值的電網資源，使這些分散式電池使所有納稅人受益。Sunrun 正在玩一場不同的遊戲，在儲存、創造現金和創新方面處於領先地位。Flex 僅可透過 Sunrun 取得。

With that, I'll turn the call to Danny for the financial update and outlook.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給丹尼，讓他報告財務更新和展望。

Thank you, Paul. Turning first to Slide 12. As we discussed last quarter, we made modifications to our key operating metrics. We made these changes to simplify how we communicate our value creation activities. We now report both unit margins and aggregate value starting from the top line gross value of subscribers to present values of expected subscriber cash flows, including noncontracted or upside revenues, present values, including only contracted cash flows and to margins that just reflect proceeds we expect to obtain from financing.

謝謝你，保羅。首先翻到投影片 12。正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們對關鍵營運指標進行了修改。我們做出這些改變是為了簡化我們傳達價值創造活動的方式。我們現在報告單位利潤率和總價值，從訂戶的頂線總價值到預期訂戶現金流的現值，包括非合約或上行收入、現值（僅包括合約現金流）以及僅反映我們預期從融資中獲得收益的利潤率。

We also made several other key modifications to methodologies. First, we moved to measuring subscriber values using a variable discount rate based on observed project-level capital costs each period, instead of using a fixed 6% discount rate. Second, we are now reporting a precise advance rate each period to estimate proceeds based on market terms as opposed to reporting ranges. Third, we simplified how we calculate creation costs, including more costs such as R&D expenses, along with tying the creation costs build up directly to cash flow statement items.

我們也對方法論做了其他幾項關鍵修改。首先，我們開始使用基於每個時期觀察到的項目級資本成本的可變折扣率來衡量用戶價值，而不是使用固定的 6% 折扣率。其次，我們現在每個期間都會報告一個精確的預付率，以根據市場條款而不是報告範圍來估算收益。第三，我們簡化了計算創造成本的方式，包括研發費用等更多成本，並將創造成本直接與現金流量表項目掛鉤。

We did not remove any metrics we previously provided. We have provided a full reconciliation of these metrics in our posted materials and have provided recast, historical metrics, starting with the first quarter of 2023 for comparative purposes.

我們沒有刪除之前提供的任何指標。我們在發布的資料中提供了這些指標的完整對賬，並提供了從 2023 年第一季度開始的重鑄歷史指標，以供比較。

Turning first to the unit level results for the quarter on slide 13. Subscriber value increased to approximately $52,000, a 15% increase compared to the prior year, as we increased our storage attachment rate by 19 percentage points to 69%, grew our Flex deployments and benefited from a 44% weighted average ITC level, an increase of 8 percentage points from Q1 of last year. Subscriber value reflects a 7.5% discount rate this period.

首先來看投影片 13 上本季的單位級結果。用戶價值增加至約 52,000 美元，比上年增長 15%，因為我們將儲存連接率提高了 19 個百分點，達到 69%，增加了 Flex 部署，並受益於 44% 的加權平均 ITC 水平，比去年第一季度增加了 8 個百分點。本期間訂戶價值反映了 7.5% 的折扣率。

We were able to maintain cost discipline with creation costs increasing only 7% from the prior year, a smaller increase than the 15% growth in subscriber value. Creation costs increased due to higher battery hardware and associated installation labor costs from the storage attachment rate increase, though labor productivity and fixed cost absorption offset a portion of these increases. This led to a 66% year-over-year growth in net subscriber value to $10,390.

我們能夠維持成本控制，創作成本僅比前一年增加 7%，低於用戶價值 15% 的成長。由於電池硬體​​成本上升以及儲存附件率增加導致的安裝人工成本增加，導致生產成本增加，但勞動生產率和固定成本吸收抵消了部分增加。這導致淨訂戶價值年增 66%，達到 10,390 美元。

Consistent with prior years, the first quarter of the year is seasonally the lowest margin period of the year, as we are ramping sales activities for the busier summer months and have worse fixed cost absorption from lower in-period installation activities.

與往年一致，今年第一季是全年利潤率最低的時期，因為我們在繁忙的夏季加大了銷售活動，而且期內安裝活動減少導致固定成本吸收能力下降。

Turning now to aggregate results on slide 14. These results are the average unit margins multiplied by the number of units. First, on the top line, aggregate subscriber value was $1.2 billion in the first quarter, a 23% increase from the prior year. Aggregate costs were $991 million, which includes all CapEx and asset origination OpEx, including overhead expenses. This resulted in net value creation of $246 million or approximately $1.09 per share.

現在轉到投影片 14 上的總結果。這些結果是平均單位利潤乘以單位數。首先，就營收而言，第一季總用戶價值為 12 億美元，比上年成長 23%。總成本為 9.91 億美元，其中包括所有資本支出和資產發起營運支出，以及管理費用。這導致淨值創造 2.46 億美元或每股約 1.09 美元。

Excluding the expected present value from noncontracted or upside cash flows, contracted net value creation was $164 million, a 104% increase from last year and about $0.72 per share. This level of value creation reflects a net margin of approximately 14% of contracted subscriber value. Slide 15 breaks down the unit level economics and aggregate economics on a contracted only basis along with the main underlying drivers for the increases.

不包括非合約或上行現金流的預期現值，合約淨值創造為 1.64 億美元，比去年增長 104%，每股約 0.72 美元。這一價值創造水準反映了合約用戶價值約 14% 的淨利潤。投影片 15 按合約細分了單位級經濟和總體經濟，以及成長的主要潛在驅動因素。

Turning now to slide 16. Sunrun raises nonrecourse capital against the value of the systems we originate each period from tax equity, which monetizes the tax credits and a share of cash flows, and asset-backed debt, along with receiving cash from subscribers opting for prepaid leases and from governments and utilities under incentive programs.

現在翻到第 16 張投影片。Sunrun 根據我們每個時期從稅收權益中發起的系統的價值籌集無追索權資本，將稅收抵免和部分現金流以及資產支持債務貨幣化，同時從選擇預付租賃的用戶以及根據激勵計劃從政府和公用事業公司獲得現金。

We estimate these upfront sources of cash will be approximately $1 billion for subscriber additions in Q1, representing approximately 87% of the aggregate contracted subscriber value or what we call the advance rate.

我們估計，這些預付現金來源將為第一季新增用戶帶來約 10 億美元，約佔合約用戶總價值或我們所謂的預付率的 87%。

When we deduct our aggregate creation cost of $991 million, we are left with an expected upfront net value creation of approximately $12 million. This represents our estimate for the expected net cash to Sunrun from subscriber additions in the period, after raising nonrecourse capital and receiving upfront cash from subscribers and incentive programs. It conservatively excludes any value from our equity position and the assets over time, including potential asset refinancing proceeds and cash flows from noncontracted sources such as grid services, repowering or renewals or upside from Flex electricity consumption above the contracted minimum.

當我們扣除 9.91 億美元的總創造成本時，我們預期前期淨值創造約 1,200 萬美元。這是我們對 Sunrun 在籌集無追索權資本以及收到來自用戶和激勵計劃的預付現金後，預計在此期間從用戶增加中獲得的淨現金的估計。它保守地排除了我們的股權地位和資產隨時間推移的任何價值，包括潛在的資產再融資收益和來自非合約來源的現金流，例如電網服務、重新供電或更新，或超過合約最低限度的 Flex 電力消耗帶來的上漲。

Actual realized proceeds in the quarter were just over $1 billion, with $256 million from tax equity, $755 million from nonrecourse debt and $53 million from customer prepayments and upfront incentives. Aggregate upfront proceeds differ from proceeds realized due to the former being an estimate for subscriber additions in the period, and the latter being the proceeds received against subscriber additions that may have occurred in a different period.

本季實際實現收益略高於 10 億美元，其中 2.56 億美元來自稅收股權，7.55 億美元來自無追索權債務，5,300 萬美元來自客戶預付款和前期激勵。總預付收益與實際收益不同，因為前者是對該期間新增訂戶的估計，而後者是針對不同期間可能發生的新增訂戶而收到的收益。

Cash generation, which reflects realized proceeds and is after other working capital changes and parent interest expense, was $56 million in Q1. We expect upfront net value creation and cash generation to correlate over time. These value and cash-based metrics clearly articulate how we create net value, finance our growth and ultimately generate cash.

第一季的現金產生額為 5,600 萬美元，反映了已實現的收益，並扣除了其他營運資本變動和母公司利息支出。我們預期前期淨值創造和現金產生將隨著時間的推移而相互關聯。這些基於價值和現金的指標清楚地闡明了我們如何創造淨價值、為我們的成長提供資金並最終產生現金。

Turning now to slide 19 for a brief update on our capital markets activities. Sunrun's industry-leading performance as an originator and servicer residential solar and storage continues to provide deep access to attractively priced capital. As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund over 375 megawatts of projects for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the first quarter.

現在翻到第 19 張投影片，簡單介紹一下我們的資本市場活動。Sunrun 作為住宅太陽能和儲能領域的發起和服務商，在業界表現領先，並繼續提供具有價格吸引力的資本深度獲取管道。截至今天，已完成的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收公平能力，可為超過第一季部署的 375 兆瓦以上的用戶項目提供資金。

Thus far in 2025, we have added more than $1.3 billion in tax equity, resulting in the strong runway. We also have $819 million in unused commitments available in our nonrecourse senior revolving warehouse loan to fund over 286 megawatts of projects for subscribers.

截至 2025 年，我們已增加超過 13 億美元的稅收權益，形成了強勁的發展動能。我們的無追索權高級循環倉儲貸款中還有 8.19 億美元未使用承諾，可以為用戶提供超過 286 兆瓦的專案資金。

Our strong debt capital runway allows us to be selective and timing turn out transactions. In January, we priced a $629 million asset-backed securitization at a yield of 6.35%. In March, we priced the $369 million securitization at a similar yield of 6.36%.

我們強大的債務資本能力使我們能夠選擇性地選擇交易時機。1 月份，我們發行了價值 6.29 億美元的資產支持證券，收益率為 6.35%。3 月份，我們以 6.36% 的類似收益率對 3.69 億美元的證券化進行了定價。

The March securitization was placed into the private credit market given strong interest from large alternative asset managers active in the space. The weighted average spread of the notes was 225 basis points, which is approximately 28 basis points higher than our January securitization. The higher spread followed overall market movements in credit spreads for similarly rated credit.

鑑於該領域大型另類資產管理公司的濃厚興趣，3 月的證券化產品被投入私人信貸市場。該票據的加權平均利差為 225 個基點，比我們一月份的證券化利率高出約 28 個基點。利差的上升與類似評級信貸的信用利差的整體市場走勢一致。

Similar to prior transactions, we raised additional capital in a subordinated nonrecourse financing, which increased the cumulative advance rate to well above 80% net of all fees, as measured against the initial contracted subscriber value of the portfolio.

與先前的交易類似，我們透過次級無追索權融資籌集了額外資本，以投資組合的初始合約訂戶價值衡量，扣除所有費用後的累積預付率上升至 80% 以上。

Asset financing markets are open and healthy, and there are an increasing number of investors, especially from private credit who have done repeat transactions with us. We expect to continue executing both publicly placed transactions and direct placements in the private credit markets.

資產融資市場開放、健康，與我們重複交易的投資者，特別是私人信貸投資者越來越多。我們預計將繼續在私人信貸市場執行公開配售交易和直接配售。

On the parent capital side, we continue to pay down parent recourse debt. During the first quarter, we repaid $27 million of borrowings under our working capital facility and repurchased a small amount of our 2026 convertible notes.

在母公司資本方面，我們繼續償還母公司追索債務。在第一季度，我們償還了營運資金貸款下的 2,700 萬美元借款，並回購了少量 2026 年可轉換票據。

Since March of last year, we have paid down recourse debt by $214 million. We have also increased our unrestricted cash balance by $118 million and grown net earning assets by $1.6 billion over this time period. We expect to pay down our recourse debt by $100 million or more in 2025.

自去年三月以來，我們已償還了2.14億美元的追索債務。在此期間，我們還將非限制性現金餘額增加了 1.18 億美元，並將淨收益資產增加了 16 億美元。我們預計到 2025 年將償還 1 億美元或更多的追索債務。

Aside from the $5.5 million outstanding of our 2026 convertible notes, we have no recourse debt maturities until March 2027. Over time, we will explore further capital allocation options to maximize shareholder value based on market conditions and our long-term outlook.

除了我們 2026 年未償還的 550 萬美元可轉換票據外，我們在 2027 年 3 月之前沒有追索權債務到期。隨著時間的推移，我們將根據市場狀況和我們的長期前景探索進一步的資本配置選擇，以最大化股東價值。

Turning now to our outlook on slide 20. For the full year, we are introducing guidance for aggregate subscriber value and contracted net value creation. We expect aggregate subscriber value to be between $5.7 billion and $6 billion, representing 14% growth at the midpoint. We expect contracted net value creation to be in a range of $650 million to $850 million, representing 9% growth at the midpoint.

現在轉到第 20 張投影片上的展望。針對全年情況，我們將推出總用戶價值和合約淨值創造的指引。我們預計總用戶價值將在 57 億美元至 60 億美元之間，中間值成長率為 14%。我們預計合約淨值創造將在 6.5 億美元至 8.5 億美元之間，中間值成長率為 9%。

We are reiterating our cash generation guidance for the year of $200 million to $500 million. Underpinning this guidance are a couple of things that have changed since our last call. We are seeing strong demand across channels and as such, now forecast subscriber additions will grow in the mid-single digits instead of our prior outlook of approximately flat for the year. This strength led us to beating our prior Q1 guidance for solar capacity installed and storage capacity installed.

我們重申今年的現金產生指導價為 2 億至 5 億美元。自從我們上次發佈公告以來，支撐這項指導意見的有幾件事已經改變了。我們看到各個通路的需求都很強勁，因此，現在預測用戶增加量將以中位數個位數成長，而不是我們先前預測的全年大致持平。這一優勢使我們超出了先前第一季太陽能安裝容量和儲存安裝容量的預期。

Offsetting these improving volume and unit margin fundamentals are the tariff developments. We expect the series of tariffs in place today to create cost headwinds of approximately $1,000 to $3,000 per subscriber in 2025, which is about 3% to 7% of creation costs. This reflects tariff impacts being felt in the second half of the year and includes only partial mitigation measures, excluding any price increases and other cost reductions we may explore.

關稅的發展抵銷了銷售和單位利潤基本面的改善。我們預計，目前實施的一系列資費將在 2025 年為每位用戶帶來約 1,000 至 3,000 美元的成本阻力，約佔創建成本的 3% 至 7%。這反映了下半年感受到的關稅影響，僅包括部分緩解措施，不包括我們可能探索的任何價格上漲和其他成本削減措施。

These tariff impacts represent approximately $100 million to $200 million of potential variance within our guidance range. At current tariff levels, we are trending in the lower half of our cash generation guidance range. But if tariffs are substantially reduced, we will be trending in the upper half of the range.

這些關稅影響在我們的指導範圍內代表著約 1 億至 2 億美元的潛在差異。在目前的關稅水準下，我們的現金產生指導範圍處於下半部分。但如果關稅大幅降低，我們的趨勢將處於該範圍的上半部。

For the second quarter, we expect aggregate subscriber value to be approximately $1.3 billion to $1.375 billion, representing 21% growth at the midpoint, and contracted net value creation to be between $125 million and $200 million, representing 80% growth at the midpoint. We expect cash generation to be between $50 million and $60 million.

對於第二季度，我們預計總用戶價值約為 13 億美元至 13.75 億美元，中間值成長 21%，合約淨值創造在 1.25 億美元至 2 億美元之間，中間值成長 80%。我們預計現金產生額將在 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元之間。

With that, operator, let's open the line for questions.

接線員，現在讓我們開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的 Brian Lee。

Lots of moving pieces here with the tariffs and some of the new guidance metrics. So maybe I'll just start off with the sourcing strategy, you mentioned the 100% of the batteries are domestically sourced, but components may not be? And then you kind of outlined how different ranges of tariffs are going to push you to either the low or high end of the cash generation guidance.

關稅和一些新的指導指標有很多變動。所以也許我應該從採購策略開始，您提到 100% 的電池都是國內採購的，但零件可能不是嗎？然後您概述了不同範圍的關稅將如何推動您達到現金產生指引的低端或高端。

Can you also kind of help bridge -- I mean when I look at the 2Q contracted net value creation, you're talking about 80% growth year-on-year. And then for the full year, it's much more muted and about 9% even though the aggregate subscriber value is going to be up in the mid-teens. So is that just a representation of the second half impact of these tariffs? And then -- or is there anything else in the middle in that bridge where the 2Q results look you're getting a lot more accretion than what you're getting for the rest of the year?

您能否也幫助彌合差距——我的意思是，當我查看第二季度合約淨值創造時，您說的是同比增長 80%。而從全年來看，儘管總用戶價值將上漲 15% 左右，但增幅卻小得多，約 9%。那麼這只是這些關稅對下半年影響的表現嗎？然後——或者中間是否存在其他因素，使得第二季度的業績看起來比今年剩餘時間的業績增長更多？

Yeah. I think it's generally the impact setting in, in the second half of the year, as we cycle through the equipment purchased safe harbor period where we discussed a full year worth of modules on the last call, half years' worth of batteries. So as we cycle through all that, it's materially picking up in the second half of the year as to the tariff impacts.

是的。我認為，影響一般出現在下半年，因為我們會經歷設備購買安全港期，上次我們討論了全年的模組和半年的電池。因此，當我們經歷所有這些時，關稅的影響在下半年會大幅上升。

So that's kind of the general trend. Of course, that's being met with strength on the volume side, continuing to grow. We've increased the ITC realization. We've grown volumes with higher value systems, and we continue to get some cost efficiencies through the business to offset some of the impact. But it is definitely back half weighted.

這就是整體趨勢。當然，銷售方面也呈現強勁成長態勢。我們提高了 ITC 的實作。我們透過更高價值的系統實現了產量的成長，並且我們繼續透過業務獲得一些成本效率來抵消一些影響。但它肯定是後半部分加權的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess, if we were to assume the tariffs aren't reduced, I guess, starting today or in April, can you kind of give us a sense of where your sourcing strategy is focused, how quickly you're going to be able to pivot. And is this sort of gap between the subscriber value that you're generating versus the net value that you're achieving -- can you close that into the first, second quarter of '26? Is it going to take longer?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，我想，如果我們假設關稅沒有降低，我想，從今天或四月開始，您能否讓我們了解一下您的採購策略的重點是什麼，以及您將多快能夠調整。您創造的訂戶價值與您實現的淨值之間的差距是 - 您能在 2026 年第一季或第二季縮小這一差距嗎？這會花更長時間嗎？

Because I just would assume that on growing scale. And some of the other tailwinds in the business that you're -- you presumably want to be creating more net value versus aggregate value at some point. Just wondering when you might get to that point and what the strategy is behind specifically the batteries to mitigate the tariff risk, if that isn't reduced?

因為我只是假設規模在不斷擴大。而對於業務中的其他一些順風因素，您可能希望在某個時候創造更多的淨值而不是總價值。我只是想知道什麼時候才能達到這一點，如果關稅風險沒有降低，電池背後的具體策略是什麼來減輕關稅風險？

Yeah, absolutely. And just like maybe relating it to the prior question. And I think also in the prepared remarks, the price -- any sort of price and go-to-market adjustments are not assumed, but the costs are assumed. So as we think about adjusting on the supply chain side, there's also the top line adjustment on pricing and go-to-market sales commissions and other cost efficiencies could very much be part of the equation.

是的，絕對是如此。就像可能將其與前面的問題聯繫起來一樣。而且我認為在準備好的評論中，價格——任何類型的價格和上市調整都不是假設的，但成本是假設的。因此，當我們考慮在供應鏈方面進行調整時，定價、上市銷售佣金和其他成本效率的頂線調整也可能成為其中的一部分。

But on the -- speaking to the supply chain side directly. A lot of the manufacturing has been increasingly been moving onshore. That's a trend more related to the domestic content incentives that we have had. So that trend will presumably continue and offset some of the impacts as well.

而是直接與供應鏈方面對話。大量製造業已逐漸轉移到國內。這一趨勢與我們所採取的國內內容激勵措施更為相關。因此這種趨勢可能會持續下去並抵消一些影響。

But I think also important to keep in mind that we may get substantial reductions in tariffs as well. So we're in a moment where we have been planning scenarios, I would say, on the go-to-market and pricing side. We haven't acted upon any of that, but I think we stand ready to as soon as we have a bit more clarity.

但我認為同樣重要的是要記住，我們也可能會大幅降低關稅。因此，我想說，我們目前正處於規劃市場進入和定價方案的時刻。我們還沒有採取任何行動，但我認為，一旦情況更加明朗，我們就會做好準備。

Andrew Percoco, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安德魯·佩科科。

Great. Maybe just to pick up where you left off, Danny, on the pricing strategy. I think you guys are pretty clear that you're seeing stronger-than-expected volume growth in the first quarter of the year. Just curious like what's the sensitivity dynamic with the customers to those potential price increases have you engaged? Or how has your sales team engaged with customers since April 2, obviously, the first quarter was strong, but just curious how -- if there has been any change in demand profile or consumer sentiment as your sales team has engaged in whether or not that might impact your pricing power here?

偉大的。丹尼，也許我們只是想繼續你之前關於定價策略的討論。我想你們都很清楚，今年第一季的銷售成長強於預期。只是好奇，客戶對您所參與的潛在價格上漲的敏感度動態如何？或者自 4 月 2 日以來，您的銷售團隊如何與客戶互動，顯然，第一季表現強勁，但只是好奇——如果您的銷售團隊參與其中，需求狀況或消費者情緒是否發生了任何變化，這是否會影響您在這裡的定價能力？

Great. Yeah, so I'll start, and I think I'll pass it to Paul to kind of hit more of the go-to-market aspects. I would say, it's very much an exercise of taking all factors on balance. So interest rates, pricing, the direction of tax credits. There is a multivariable scenario planning that I think given a few weeks' time, we'll feel like moving into the second half of the year, we'll have much better clarity looking at our cost structure where that's trending.

偉大的。是的，我先開始了，我想我會把它交給保羅，讓他更多地談論進入市場的方面。我想說，這在很大程度上是一個綜合考慮所有因素的過程。因此，利率、定價、稅收抵免的方向。有一個多變量情境規劃，我認為，再過幾週，我們就會感覺進入下半年，我們會更清楚地了解我們的成本結構趨勢。

We have a lot of ambitions to continue to get cost efficiencies through the business, whether that's the some of the AI initiatives, we set as examples, we're continuing to build up scale as we sequentially grow volumes will also very much play a factor into all the modeling.

我們有很多雄心壯志，希望透過業務繼續提高成本效益，無論是一些人工智慧計劃，我們作為榜樣，我們將繼續擴大規模，因為我們將逐步增加產量，這也將在所有建模中發揮重要作用。

And as far as any adjustments, we don't want to make adjustments prematurely. I think we see definitely headroom to make adjustments in markets. Certainly, as the whole industry will be bearing the problems associated with tariffs more uniformly. I think there'll be pressure to make adjustments across industries. So we don't think we'd be uncompetitive in doing so, but we just want to do it at moments where we feel like firm in those decisions from a longer-term planning standpoint.

至於任何調整，我們都不想太早做出調整。我認為我們肯定看到了市場進行調整的空間。當然，因為整個產業將更統一地承擔與關稅相關的問題。我認為各行業都會面臨調整的壓力。因此，我們認為這樣做並不會失去競爭力，但我們只是想在從長期規劃的角度對這些決定感到堅定的時候這樣做。

But I'll pass it over to Paul, if he wants to add anything.

但如果保羅想補充什麼的話，我會把它交給他。

Yeah. Maybe the only thing I would add is in periods of clinical or economic like macro uncertainty, the Sunrun consumer offering plays very well. So as consumers are looking for price certainty and savings on utility costs and things like that, we see a lot of strong demand continue to persist. So we do see some of this uncertainty driving demand for the product.

是的。也許我唯一想補充的是，在臨床或經濟宏觀不確定時期，Sunrun 消費者產品表現非常出色。因此，當消費者尋求價格確定性和節省公用事業成本等時，我們看到大量強勁的需求持續存在。因此，我們確實看到這種不確定性推動了對產品的需求。

Okay. Understood. That's super helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on the cash generation guidance. I know there's a lot of moving pieces, a ton of uncertainty here. But I think you guys have previously committed to seeing growth in cash generation in 2026 over 2025. I know it's probably increasingly difficult to do that in this period of time. But curious if you have any updated thoughts on that as it relates to 2026 cash generation?

好的。明白了。這非常有幫助。或許只是對現金產生指引的後續跟進。我知道這裡有很多變動因素，存在著大量不確定性。但我認為你們之前已經承諾過 2026 年的現金創造量將超過 2025 年。我知道在這段時間內做到這一點可能會越來越困難。但我很好奇，您是否對此有任何最新的想法，因為它與 2026 年的現金產生有關？

Yeah. I think at this point, we feel like managing through the tariffs and looking at their back half impact, we could see positive cash generation in 2026. I think it's way too premature to specify actual ranges. But as time goes by and we get into narrower planning scenarios, we'll be able to share.

是的。我認為目前，我們覺得透過管理關稅並觀察其後半部分的影響，我們可能會在 2026 年看到積極的現金產生。我認為現在指定實際範圍還為時過早。但隨著時間的推移，我們進入更狹窄的規劃場景，我們將能夠分享。

Moses Sutton, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的摩西·薩頓。

I have a question on safe harbor. Do you plan on doing anything material in terms of safe harboring ahead of a possible IRA modification? Are you getting in front of that. And if not, why not, given the potential risk it poses to the business model if the ITC gets severely modified. I'd imagine you'd spend 5% of costs, I don't know, through 2027, maybe via an equipment financing or some other arrangement. Any color there would be helpful.

我有一個關於安全港的問題。在可能的 IRA 修改之前，您是否計劃在安全庇護方面採取任何實質的行動？您是否已經到達了這一點？如果不是，那為什麼不呢，因為如果 ITC 發生重大修改，可能會對商業模式造成潛在風險。我估計到 2027 年你會花費 5% 的成本，我不知道，也許是透過設備融資或其他安排。任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. Yeah. So the end-of-year activity was really us -- twofold us looking at the transition from 48 to 48(E) credits. Of course, some price hedging, which is benefiting us well. We talked about the potential to do more in connection with some of the domestic content rules changing. I would say beyond that, it's really a function of understanding what, if any, changes there will be and when they will set in, and those will establish the plan and the deadlines for executing more.

當然。是的。因此，年終活動實際上是我們——我們雙重關注從 48 到 48(E) 學分的轉變。當然，一些價格對沖對我們有利。我們討論了一些與國內內容規則變化相關的採取更多行動的可能性。我想說，除此之外，它實際上是一種了解將會有什麼樣的變化（如果有的話）以及何時會發生的變化的功能，而這些將確定執行更多計劃和最後期限。

I think in the meantime, generating cash continuing to have substantial unrestricted cash on hand, paying down debt will be the objectives. But I think that will all be supportive to also having the ability to safe harbor, if and when we get to those moments in time, which we think might arise in the future, but we certainly wouldn't before with certainty knowing that we have to and what those benefits -- those financial benefits of doing so will be.

我認為同時，產生現金、繼續持有大量不受限制的現金、償還債務將是目標。但我認為，如果我們到了那個時候，這一切都將有助於我們擁有避風港的能力，我們認為這可能會在未來出現，但我們肯定不會在確定我們必須這樣做以及這樣做會帶來什麼好處——那些經濟利益是什麼之前這樣做。

That's helpful. And another one on the IRA, if transferability gets taken away, how would you consider the impact now that tax equity or at least the megawatt tax equity is more competitive with utility scale market being 3 times the size than it was three years ago?

這很有幫助。另一個關於 IRA 的問題，如果取消可轉讓性，您認為現在會產生什麼影響？因為現在的稅收公平性，或至少兆瓦稅收公平性更具競爭力，而公用事業規模市場規模是三年前的三倍。

Yeah. So like others, we've heard some speculation around transferability getting discussed certainly too soon to know what will appear in drafts. I think it's been abundantly -- made abundantly clear by industry as well, like what the benefit of transferability has been not just for us, but the adoption of a lot of renewable and clean technologies.

是的。因此，與其他人一樣，我們聽到一些關於可轉移性的猜測，但討論得太早，還不知道草案中會出現什麼內容。我認為業界已經非常清楚地表明了這一點，例如可轉移性的好處不僅在於我們，還在於許多可再生和清潔技術的採用。

So we think generally, there will be support for transferability. There was a 21 House Republicans specifically noted to support for continuation of transferability of tax credits, given what impact that's had on the industry.

因此我們認為整體而言，將會支持可轉移性。有 21 名共和黨眾議員特別表示支持繼續實施稅收抵免的可轉讓性，因為這會對產業產生影響。

And I think we've also been at the forefront of developing the tax credit transfer market, but we are also like recall we are at -- we have historically been a very significant player in the traditional tax equity market as well, which has remained active and strong for us. So any removal would create temporary shifts on how we source capital. But I think we feel like, ultimately, also the outcome will end up okay for the industry on that.

我認為我們也一直處於開發稅收抵免轉移市場的前沿，但我們也記得——從歷史上看，我們在傳統稅收公平市場中也是一個非常重要的參與者，該市場對我們來說一直保持活躍和強勁。因此，任何取消都會對我們的資金來源方式造成暫時的改變。但我認為，我們覺得最終的結果對整個產業來說都是好的。

Maheep Mandloi, Mizuho.

Maheep Mandloi，瑞穗。

Just on the tariff portion, I think you kind of talked about that $100 million, $200 million impact. So that seems around 6% increase in prices required there? Just wanted to understand like how would that translate to actual PPA prices because there's also some ITC, which could subsidize those tariff increases, right? So I'm just trying to think like how do we think about the price increases next year if tariffs don't change here?

僅就關稅部分而言，我想您談到了 1 億美元、2 億美元的影響。那麼那裡的價格似乎需要上漲 6% 左右？只是想了解一下，這會如何轉化為實際的 PPA 價格，因為還有一些 ITC，可以補貼這些關稅的增加，對嗎？所以我只是在想，如果這裡的關稅不變，我們該如何考慮明年的價格上漲？

Yeah. I think you've got it. So it's about a 3% to 7% of cost impact, again, back half weighted. So that was 3% to 7% for the year. A more substantial 10% potentially slightly higher if you take the second half realized impact.

是的。我想你已經明白了。因此，這大約是 3% 到 7% 的成本影響，再次加權。所以今年的成長率是 3% 到 7%。如果考慮下半年實現的影響，這一數字可能會略高一些，達到 10%。

And that's to be offset with -- if it was entirely offset with pricing that would be the maximum magnitude though, as you correctly noted some of that will be offset by higher cost structure and, therefore, higher fair market values. So some fraction of that 10% type number would be offset first by fair market values, and then the rest would need to get allocated towards -- on the revenue side, higher pricing, on the cost side lower operating costs, lower customer acquisition costs. Anything else we can do on the efficiency side.

這是要抵消的——如果它完全被定價所抵消，那將是最大幅度，正如你正確指出的那樣，其中一部分將被更高的成本結構所抵消，因此，更高的公平市場價值。因此，這 10% 類型數字的一部分將首先被公平市場價值所抵消，然後其餘部分將需要分配給 - 在收入方面，更高的定價，在成本方面，更低的營運成本，更低的客戶獲取成本。在效率方面我們還能做其他什麼。

There may be some go-to-market implications as well that might be slight, but we would have to look at that on a market-by-market level, products as we compare solar only with solar versus -- solar and storage at the individual market level. There might be some go-to-market implications, but again, we're narrowing the bands of uncertainty first and then actioning later, but we think we have a good well device playbook.

可能還會有一些市場進入的影響，雖然影響可能很小，但我們必須從市場層面來看待這個問題，因為我們在單一市場層面上比較太陽能產品與太陽能和太陽能儲存。這可能會對市場走向產生一些影響，但同樣，我們首先會縮小不確定性的範圍，然後再採取行動，但我們認為我們已經有了一個良好的設備劇本。

Appreciate that. And maybe just quickly on the Flex product. It seems pretty interesting here. Just want to understand like how does it impact the upfront cost. And then do you need any certain amounts of upgrades in the future or higher power draw to meet the same NPV or IRR compared to your current offerings?

非常感謝。也許只是快速介紹一下 Flex 產品。這裡看起來相當有趣。只是想了解它如何影響前期成本。那麼，與目前產品相比，您是否需要在未來進行一定程度的升級或更高的功耗才能滿足相同的 NPV 或 IRR？

Yeah, great question. So obviously, the product with larger systems has an increased equipment cost, but the efficiencies we gain associated with installing larger systems largely offsets. And in some cases, we even have superior upfront returns on the Flex product, absent the assumption of any utilization of the excess capacity. So similar to superior returns on its space as the base contracted product and then all upside as customers increase consumption, and we drive electrification.

是的，很好的問題。因此顯然，具有更大系統的產品會增加設備成本，但安裝更大系統所帶來的效率提昇在很大程度上可以抵消這個成本。在某些情況下，我們甚至在 Flex 產品上獲得了更高的前期回報，而無需假設利用過剩產能。因此，類似於在其空間上作為基本合約產品的優越回報，然後隨著客戶增加消費，所有收益都會上漲，我們推動電氣化。

Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer. Colin, your line is unmuted. We aren't able to hear you. You may have your self-muted. All right. We may have lost him.

奧本海默的科林·拉什。科林，您的線路已取消靜音。我們聽不到你的聲音。您可能已將自己靜音。好的。我們可能已經失​​去他了。

Joseph Osha, Guggenheim Securities.

古根漢證券公司的約瑟夫‧奧沙。

Can you hear me everybody?

大家聽得到我說話嗎？

Sure can.

當然可以。

All right. Super, two questions. First, understanding you can't actually forecast cash generation next year. You have in the past provided some thoughts around the level of sensitivity in terms of cash generation relative to the ITC.

好的。非常好，有兩個問題。首先，你要明白你其實無法預測明年的現金產生。您過去曾就 ITC 相關的現金產生方面的敏感度水平提出過一些想法。

And I'm wondering if you might be able to do that again. In particular, it's interesting, if I look at page 15 of your deck, I see 43.6%, squaring up against $164 million in the same period last year, 35%, $80 million. Can we perhaps try and draw some extrapolations from that analysis? And then I have a follow-up.

我想知道你是否可以再做一次這樣的事。特別有趣的是，如果我看一下你的簡報的第 15 頁，我會看到 43.6%，而去年同期為 1.64 億美元，35%，即 8000 萬美元。我們能否嘗試從該分析中得出一些推論？然後我有一個後續問題。

Yeah, absolutely. And Patrick appears to have moved into later in the presentation. So if you refer to Slide 27, the bottom of slide 27 in the appendix, it's 1 percentage point of weighted average ITC, realization is approximately $50 million. 25 basis points is -- cost of capital is approximately $40 million.

是的，絕對是如此。派崔克似乎在演講的後期才開始發言。因此，如果您參考投影片 27，即附錄中投影片 27 的底部，它是加權平均 ITC 的 1 個百分點，實現金額約為 5000 萬美元。 25 個基點－資本成本約為 4,000 萬美元。

In the past, you've had storage attachment rate. That's been a 1 point of storage attachment rate more in a single-digit number, but the two primary factors are there on the page, if you want to reference that.

過去，您有儲存附件率。這是一個 1 點的儲存附件率，多為個位數，但如果您想參考的話，頁面上有兩個主要因素。

Okay. And so that not to be a stick in the mud then, but that would imply all other things being equal, that a 30% ITC wipes out your free cash. Am I drawing that conclusion correctly, if I go back to 30%? Or can the company take some steps to mitigate that?

好的。這樣就不是固執己見了，但這意味著在其他條件相同的情況下，30% 的 ITC 會抹去你的自由現金。如果我回到 30%，我得出這個結論正確嗎？或者公司可以採取一些措施來緩解這種情況嗎？

Yeah. So all else equal, it's 50 times 15. So that's the right math. But there would certainly be plenty of action to offset as much of that as we could. So pricing, again, all the same factors, whether it's tariffs or ITC level changes, pricing, customer acquisition costs. If we're talking about a 45% level going to 30%, also substantial go-to-market implications.

是的。在其他條件相同的情況下，它是 50 乘以 15。所以這是正確的計算。但我們肯定會採取大量行動來盡可能地抵消這一影響。因此，定價仍然是相同的因素，無論是關稅還是 ITC 水平變化、定價還是客戶獲取成本。如果我們談論的是 45% 的水平上升到 30%，那麼對市場進入也會有重大影響。

Okay. And then my second question are good friends that the CPUC Public Advocates Office have been busy, as I'm sure you know. I'm wondering, if you have any thoughts about how that situation might progress and specifically as it relates to the state funding net metering out of a different funding source?

好的。我的第二個問題是，親愛的朋友們，我相信你們知道，CPUC 公共辯護辦公室一直很忙。我想知道，您是否對這種情況可能如何發展有什麼看法，特別是它與來自不同資金來源的國家資金淨計量的關係？

Yeah. Joe, good to hear you, and thanks for the question. I mean, yes, as you would expect, we're tracking closely and very active in the state house. Utility rates in California, you know have risen rapidly --

是的。喬，很高興聽到你的消息，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，是的，正如你所期望的，我們正在密切關注並在州議會中非常活躍。你知道，加州的公用事業費率已經快速上漲--

I look at that --

我看著那個--

Because of investments. Yeah, exactly. So there's definitely been some push under the agenda of affordability. And we were really pleased the other day that, again, the language that would have been very negative for our industry, for our customers and for our existing customers, was actually taken out of the bill. It was a very, very active opposition. So yes, we stay very engaged, and our customers stay very engaged as well as other advocates in the space.

因為投資。是的，確實如此。因此，在可負擔性議程方面肯定會有一些推動。前幾天，我們真的很高興，那些對我們的行業、我們的客戶和現有客戶非常不利的語言實際上被從法案中刪除了。這是一場非常非常積極的反對。所以是的，我們保持高度參與，我們的客戶以及該領域的其他倡導者也保持高度參與。

And just to clarify for our listeners that it is true that the grandfathering or de-grandfathering, I guess it is, has been taken out of the bill. Yeah?

只是為了向我們的聽眾澄清一下，祖父條款或取消祖父條款確實已經從法案中刪除了。是的？

Yeah. 100%, yes. Sorry. I could have said that more specifically. Yeah.

是的。 100% 是的。對不起。我本來可以更具體地說這一點。是的。

Degrand -- whatever that is. Okay.

Degrand——不管那是什麼。好的。

Philip Shen, ROTH Capital Partners.

羅仕證券 (ROTH Capital Partners) 的 Philip Shen。

I have a follow-up on the transferability question. If that is removed from the IRA. I think, Danny, you mentioned that it would be a temporary shift in how you source your capital. So I was wondering, if you could elaborate on that.

我對可轉移性問題有一個後續問題。如果將其從 IRA 中刪除。丹尼，我認為你提到這將是你資金來源方式的暫時轉變。所以我想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下。

So specifically, would you elect for the direct pay option? And then kind of work with some lenders for bridge financing. What are the levers that you might be able to pull to manage that transition? And how big of a concern do you think it might be?

那麼具體來說，您會選擇直接付款選項嗎？然後與一些貸方合作進行過橋融資。您可以利用哪些手段來管理這項轉變？您認為這會造成多大困擾？

I know you emphasized that you're still working with the bank partners that you've had, but I think 50% of the market is with transferability partners at this point. So there could be a bit of a hiccup. Just wondering, how you guys manage through that?

我知道您曾強調您仍在與先前的銀行合作夥伴合作，但我認為目前 50% 的市場是與可轉移性合作夥伴合作的。因此可能會出現一些小問題。只是想知道，你們是如何解決這個問題的？

Sure. Yeah. So I think just at a high level, it's very important to see the full balance of activity or the full balance of changes that result from the package, right? So if transferability were removed, it is a supply and demand-driven market. So you'd also have to look at what available supply of credits are also removed from the market based on changes to the IRA.

當然。是的。因此我認為，從高層次來看，了解活動的全面平衡或一攬子計劃所導致的變化的全面平衡非常重要，對嗎？因此，如果消除可轉讓性，它就是一個供需驅動的市場。因此，您還必須查看根據 IRA 的變化，市場上還有哪些可用的信貸供應被移除。

So we don't know where the market equilibrium will be on supply/demand. We'll have to know that missing data point as well to be more fulsome in the response. So the comment about the shift in our approach really is nothing more complicated than we would be more -- you would be reliant on the traditional tax equity market as opposed to some hybrid of the 2 as we are today.

所以我們不知道市場供需平衡點在哪裡。我們也必須了解缺失的數據點，以便做出更全面的回應。因此，關於我們方法轉變的評論實際上並不比我們更複雜——你會依賴傳統的稅收股權市場，而不是像我們今天這樣將兩者混合在一起。

Okay. And then on the tax equity, supply. In your remarks, you talked about having capacity to fund 375 megawatts beyond Q1. I think at the end of Q4, it's 500 megawatts. Can you just give us an update on what the tax equity market is doing thus far?

好的。然後是稅收公平和供應。在您的演講中，您談到了在第一季之後有能力資助 375 兆瓦。我認為到第四季末，這個數字將達到 500 兆瓦。您能否向我們介紹一下稅收股權市場目前的動態？

There's been some changes in the market with TPOs, some are not doing as well as you know. And so with the uncertainty around the IRA and so forth, has pricing changed to any degree for you guys specifically, 375 is a decent amount -- a very high amount for -- on an absolute basis, but it might carry you guys about two quarters. And so just curious, how you expect tax equity funding to close in the coming quarters?

TPO 市場發生了一些變化，有些表現不如您所知。因此，由於 IRA 等的不確定性，對於你們來說，定價是否有所變化？具體來說，375 是一個不錯的數額——絕對值非常高，但它可能會為你們帶來大約兩個季度的收益。所以我很好奇，您預計未來幾季稅收股權融資將如何結束？

Yeah. So we're well diversified against a -- amongst like a large and increasingly growing buyer universe. We continue to close transactions. So we're not -- it's not a relatively few number, especially with transferability in the mix. It's not a relatively small number of transactions we're doing in tax equity, its hybrid transactions, some of very large size within which we're placing multiple tax credit transfers, and we continue to do that through quarters.

是的。因此，我們在龐大且不斷成長的買家群體中實現了良好的多元化。我們繼續完成交易。所以我們不是——這不是一個相對較少的數字，尤其是考慮到可轉移性。我們在稅收公平方面進行的交易數量相對較少，而是混合交易，其中一些交易規模非常大，我們在其中放置了多個稅收抵免轉移，並且我們會在各個季度繼續這樣做。

So I think that continues to look good to us and continue to develop. Certainly as others in the market with available tax credits struggle and failed to deliver them, there is an aspect of a safety play with Sunrun who has a steady flow and is proven to be reliable.

所以我認為這對我們來說仍然是好事，並且會繼續發展。當然，由於市場上其他擁有稅收抵免的公司都在苦苦掙扎，未能兌現承諾，因此選擇 Sunrun 是一個安全的選擇，因為它擁有穩定的流量，並且被證明是可靠的。

So in moments where the -- on the buyer side, you have numerous options for where to acquire your credits, this sort of environment there could also be like, if you will, like a flight-to-quality benefit that could be in our favor.

因此，在買方方面，您有多種選擇來獲得信貸，這種環境也可能像飛向品質的優勢一樣對我們有利。

But what we'd like to do is demonstrate to everyone who's done transactions with us, how solid we are on the delivery so that they also repeat with us, and that's been the track record as far back as we can go.

但我們想做的是向所有與我們進行過交易的人展示我們在交付方面的可靠性，以便他們也能再次與我們合作，這是我們一直以來的記錄。

Dylan Nassano, Wolfe Research.

迪倫·納薩諾，沃爾夫研究中心。

I just want to go back to the conversation around competition. You've shown the slides that you're seeing market share actually start to tick up. And in the past, you've talked about kind of staying disciplined and not trying to solve for market share. So I guess, just can you walk us through like how are you accomplishing that? And any changes to kind of how you're thinking about competition in light of the tariff impacts?

我只是想回到有關競爭的話題。您在幻燈片中看到市場份額實際上開始上升。過去，您曾談到要保持紀律，而不是試圖解決市場佔有率問題。所以我想，您能否向我們介紹一下您是如何實現這一目標的？鑑於關稅的影響，您對競爭的看法有什麼改變嗎？

Yeah. Great question. So we really view it as charting our own course in the industry right now. And we've talked in the past about the rates that other dealers pay and financing companies and things, but as we focus more on differentiating and innovating our product offering, we're seeing more customers understand and realize the benefits of I can get standard product from some finance company and a rep may make more or less, but I have a similar offering compared to a Flex offering, for example, where they get a bunch of extra capacity at a locked-in low rate that they can tap into for a similar contracted rate on the base amount.

是的。好問題。因此，我們確實將其視為目前我們自己在行業中的發展方向。我們過去曾討論過其他經銷商支付的利率和融資公司等問題，但隨著我們更加註重產品差異化和創新，我們看到越來越多的客戶理解並意識到我可以從一些金融公司獲得標準產品的好處，而銷售代表可能會賺得更多或更少，但我提供的產品與 Flex 產品類似，例如，他們以鎖定的低利率獲得大量交易容量，他們可以利用這些基本容量。

Things like that, things like leaning into storage and customers buying more on resiliency and understanding features and benefits, people are caring more about, the longevity of the company being around to service their assets and reviews, things like that. So we're really seeing all of the benefits of what we've been working to build here at Sunrun flow through in consumer demand and competing less on price and pay and focusing more on differentiation.

諸如此類的事情，例如傾向於存儲，客戶更多地購買彈性和了解功能和優勢，人們更關心的是公司為其資產提供服務的壽命和評論，諸如此類的事情。因此，我們確實看到，我們在 Sunrun 努力打造的所有優勢都體現在消費者需求上，減少了價格和薪酬方面的競爭，而更注重差異化。

And then for my follow-up. So Danny, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're actually running at pretty close to your targeted blended ITC level for the year. How should we think about that trending through the rest of the year? Is it -- could it potentially go a little bit above what the target was for the year?

然後是我的後續行動。所以丹尼，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我認為你實際上已經非常接近今年的目標混合 ITC 水平了。我們該如何看待今年剩餘時間的趨勢？它有可能比今年的目標高出一點點嗎？

We're still expecting a mid-40%, 45% number. So we cited the initial part of the year as being a little bit of a delayed ramp than we expected two quarters ago. I think we've hit -- we've largely hit that ramp, and I think we're generally expecting the flat line as we hit that 45% level and go through the rest of the year.

我們仍然預計這個數字會在 40% 到 45% 之間。因此，我們認為今年年初的成長速度比兩個季度前的預期略有延遲。我認為我們已經達到了——我們基本上已經達到了那個坡度，而且我認為，當我們達到 45% 的水平並度過今年剩餘時間時，我們通常預計會出現一條平線。

Kashy Harrison, Piper Sandler.

卡西·哈里森、派珀·桑德勒。

Congrats on the results. Maybe just a follow-up to Moses' question earlier on safe harbor. So let's say, there is a step down in the ITC coming to 30%, how many years do you think you would be able to safe harbor based on your discussions with your equipment suppliers, and what would be the plan to finance it?

恭喜取得成果。也許只是對摩西之前關於安全港的問題的後續回答。那麼，假設 ITC 下降到 30%，根據您與設備供應商的討論，您認為您可以獲得多少年的安全港，以及融資計劃是什麼？

Yeah. So it is dependent on available supply, available capital. I think we -- as we noted on the last call, the Q4 activity was about a year's worth of modules, also six months of batteries. The reason for 6 months was available physical supply driven. There are other ways we could go longer than that, but there would be some limitations. Once you get out beyond the period of 6 months -- 6 to 12 months, I think it gets -- there are certain ways we could achieve it, but it gets more limited.

是的。所以它取決於可用的供應和可用的資本。我認為——正如我們在上次電話會議上指出的那樣，第四季度的活動大約相當於一年的模組，以及六個月的電池。之所以選擇 6 個月，是因為可用的實體供應量所致。我們可以透過其他方式延長這一時間，但會有一些限制。一旦超過 6 個月（6 到 12 個月），我認為——我們可以透過某些方式實現它，但會變得更加有限。

Got it. I appreciate that color. And then -- and maybe from a --?

知道了。我很欣賞那個顏色。然後——也許從--？

Just to follow on the thought. If it's -- as has been the case in the past, if it's multiple step-down events over multiple years, then there are also multiple safe harbor events of shorter periods of time. So it's not that -- it's not a one-and-done duration of 6 to 12 months if that's the available supply.

只是為了繼續這個想法。如果是 — — 就像過去的情況一樣，如果是多年來的多次降壓事件，那麼也會有多個較短時間的安全港事件。所以，如果供應量足夠的話，這並不是一次性完成的 6 到 12 個月的時間。

It's a recycling over a number of years. So as the step-downs occur, yes, we will have stepped down. We will have delayed it, but we will also be carrying a higher level of realized ITC than competitors who were not able to safe harbor. So that would be a competitive advantage on the way down.

這是多年來的循環過程。因此，隨著降級的發生，是的，我們將會降級。我們會推遲這項程序，但我們實現的 ITC 水準也將比那些無法獲得安全港的競爭對手更高。因此，這將成為下滑過程中的競爭優勢。

Got it. I appreciate the thoughts there. And then maybe my follow-up, Danny, I think you flagged that the full impact of the tariffs would be closer to 10%, later in the year after you exhaust your current inventory, is that correct? And is that -- is the bulk of that really just coming from the batteries?

知道了。我很欣賞這些想法。然後也許我的後續問題，丹尼，我認為你提到過，關稅的總體影響將接近 10%，在今年晚些時候，在你用完現有庫存之後，對嗎？那麼——其中大部分真的只是來自電池嗎？

And then maybe lastly, like -- if we do see a situation where maybe the tariffs on batteries aren't -- sorry, from Chinese cells aren't 150, maybe they're 50%, for example, how should we think about the impact to your increased tariff costs that you flagged?

最後，如果我們確實看到這樣一種情況，即電池關稅可能不是——抱歉，中國電池的關稅不是 150%，而是 50%，那麼我們應該如何看待您所提​​出的關稅成本增加的影響？

Yeah. We see it -- so majority is right. So we see majority from battery costs. So I'd say a little more than half to be more specific. And that sort of magnitude would be driven by sales supplied from China, as you noted. So it would be the portion of battery costs that are cell-driven would be the math to do on the way down.

是的。我們看到了——所以大多數人是正確的。因此，我們看到大部分成本來自電池成本。所以更具體地說，我認為略多於一半。正如您所說，這種規模的成長將受到中國供應的銷售的推動。因此，電池成本中由電池驅動的部分將是下降過程中需要進行的計算。

Got it.

知道了。

There are other -- like there are, in addition, other components upstream, but that would be the biggest number.

還有其他——例如，此外還有其他上游組件，但那將是最大的數量。

Ameet Thakkar, BMO Capital Markets.

Ameet Thakkar，BMO 資本市場。

Just, I guess, maybe a follow-up on Kashy's question that the 10% increase, is that net of any price adjustments you've made on your end? Or is that the kind of the gross impact to you right now before any price increases? And I have one quick follow-up.

我想，也許可以針對 Kashy 的問題進行後續提問，即 10% 的增幅是否扣除了你們方面所做的任何價格調整？或者這是在價格上漲之前對您造成的整體影響嗎？我還有一個快速的後續問題。

It's gross.

太噁心了。

Okay. And then just coming back to California Assembly Bill 942. Just to kind of be clear, the sunsetting kind of provisions are all out, it's not going from 10 to 20 years. Is that correct? And then they still have kept the provision where if a homeowner sells their system, then they would kind of lose the NEM 2.0 status. Is that correct? And how do you see that impacting your kind of estimates for renewal value?

好的。然後回到加州議會第 942 號法案。需要明確的是，日落條款已經全部取消，期限不會從 10 年延長到 20 年。對嗎？然後他們仍然保留了這樣的規定：如果房主出售他們的系統，那麼他們就會失去 NEM 2.0 的地位。對嗎？您認為這會對您對續約價值的估算產生什麼影響？

Yeah, you have it absolutely correct. The -- again, generally telling customers that you're reneging on a promise doesn't actually work. So yeah, that language was killed. And the home transfer language is still in there, but it will be interesting to see if it lives to see final passage.

是的，你的說法完全正確。再說一遍，通常告訴客戶你違背了承諾其實是行不通的。是的，這種語言已經被消滅了。國內轉移語言仍然在那裡，但看看它是否能存活到最後通過將會很有趣。

Thank you. That concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。