Republic Services Inc (RSG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Republic Services third-quarter 2024 investor conference call. Republic Services is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RSG. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Republic Services 2024 年第三季投資人電話會議。Republic Services 在紐約證券交易所上市，代號為 RSG。（操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Aaron Evans, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁亞倫·埃文斯 (Aaron Evans)。請繼續。

I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services' third-quarter 2024 conference call. Jon Vander Ark, our CEO; and Brian Delghiaccio, our CFO, are on the call today to discuss our performance.

我謹歡迎大家參加 Republic Services 的 2024 年第三季電話會議。喬恩‧范德‧阿克 (Jon Vander Ark)，我們的執行長；我們的財務長 Brian Delghiaccio 今天打電話來討論我們的表現。

I would like to take a moment to remind everyone that some information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, including forward-looking financial information, which involve risks and uncertainties and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

我想花點時間提醒大家，我們在今天的電話會議中討論的一些信息包含前瞻性陳述，包括前瞻性財務信息，這些信息涉及風險和不確定性，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。我們向 SEC 提交的文件討論了可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的因素。

The material that we discuss today is time sensitive. If in the future, you listen to a rebroadcast or recording of this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is October 29, 2024.

我們今天討論的材料具有時間敏感性。如果您將來收聽本次電話會議的重播或錄音，您應該留意原始電話會議的日期，即 2024 年 10 月 29 日。

Please note that this call is property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of Republic Services is strictly prohibited. Our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities, along with the recording of this call, are available on Republic's website at republicservices.com.

請注意，本次通話屬於 Republic Services, Inc. 的財產。我們向 SEC 提交的文件、我們的收益新聞稿（其中包括 GAAP 調節表和業務活動討論）以及本次電話會議的錄音均可在 Republic 網站 Republicservices.com 上取得。

I want to remind you that Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the date times and presentations are posted on our website.

我想提醒您的是，Republic 的管理團隊定期參加投資者會議。安排活動後，日期時間和演示會發佈在我們的網站上。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給喬恩。

Thanks, Aaron. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered strong third-quarter results by effectively executing our strategy that supports profitable growth and value creation. The Republic Services team continues to deliver world-class service and innovative solutions to meet the needs of our customers.

謝謝，亞倫。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。透過有效執行支持獲利成長和價值創造的策略，我們取得了強勁的第三季業績。Republic Services 團隊持續提供世界級的服務和創新解決方案，以滿足客戶的需求。

During the quarter, we achieved revenue growth of 7%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of 14%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 210 basis points, reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.81, and produced $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow on a year-to-date basis.

本季度，我們實現了 7% 的營收成長，調整後 EBITDA 成長 14%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 210 個基點，調整後每股收益為 1.81 美元，調整後自由現金流為 14 億美元。為止的基礎上。

Through our differentiated capabilities, customers yield, digital and sustainability, we continue to be well positioned to capture new opportunities and create long-term value for our stakeholders.

透過我們的差異化能力、客戶收益、數位化和永續發展，我們將繼續處於有利地位，抓住新機遇，為利害關係人創造長期價值。

Regarding customer [ZIL], our focus on delivering world-class essential services continues to support organic growth and enhance customer loyalty. Our customer retention rate remained strong at more than 94%. Third-quarter organic revenue growth was driven by strong pricing across the business.

對於客戶 [ZIL]，我們專注於提供世界一流的基本服務，持續支持自然成長並提高客戶忠誠度。我們的客戶保留率保持在 94% 以上。第三季有機收入成長是由整個業務的強勁定價推動的。

Average yield on total revenue was 4.6%, and average yield on related revenue was 5.5%. This level of pricing continued to exceed our cost inflation and help drive 210 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion.

總收入平均收益率為4.6%，相關收入平均收益率為5.5%。這一定價水準繼續超過我們的成本通膨，並幫助推動 EBITDA 利潤率擴張 210 個基點。

Organic volume on total revenue declined 1.2%. Volume losses were heavily concentrated to the cyclical portions of our business, including special waste and construction activity.

有機銷售佔總收入的比例下降了 1.2%。數量損失主要集中在我們業務的周期性部分，包括特殊廢棄物和建築活動。

Turning to our expanding digital capabilities. We continue to advance the implementation of digital tools to improve the experience for both customers and employees.

轉向我們不斷擴展的數位能力。我們繼續推動數位工具的實施，以改善客戶和員工的體驗。

Deployment of MPower, our new fleet and equipment management system, is underway. MPower is designed to increase maintenance technician productivity and enhance warranty recovery. Deployment of the new system is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2025. We estimate MPower will deliver (technical difficulty) annual cost savings once fully implemented.

我們的新車隊和設備管理系統 MPower 的部署正在進行中。MPower 旨在提高維修技術人員的工作效率並增強保固恢復。新系統的部署預計將於 2025 年底完成。我們估計，一旦全面實施，MPower 將實現（技術難度）年度成本節省。

We continue to benefit from innovative technology on our recycling and waste collection routes. Our platform utilizes cameras to identify overfill containers and recycling contamination. This technology generated more than $60 million in incremental revenue in the first year of operation.

我們繼續受益於回收和廢物收集路線的創新技術。我們的平台利用攝影機來識別溢出容器和回收污染物。該技術在營運第一年就創造了超過 6000 萬美元的增量收入。

Moving on to sustainability. We believe that our sustainability innovation investments in plastic circularity and renewal natural gas position us to continue grow and create long-term value creation. Development of our polymer centers and Blue Polymers joint venture facilities continues to move forward.

轉向可持續發展。我們相信，我們在塑膠循環和再生天然氣方面的可持續創新投資使我們能夠繼續發展並創造長期價值。我們的聚合物中心和 Blue Polymers 合資工廠的開發繼續向前推進。

Las Vegas Polymer Center production volumes continued to increase throughout the quarter. Construction is progressing on our Indianapolis Polymer Center with initial equipment commissioning underway. This operation will be co-located with a Blue Polymers production facility. We expect construction on this facility to be complete by the year of this year, with earnings contribution in the second half of 2025.

拉斯維加斯聚合物中心的產量在整個季度持續增加。我們的印第安納波利斯聚合物中心的建設正在進行中，初步設備調試正在進行中。該工廠將與 Blue Polymers 生產設施位於同一地點。我們預計該設施的建設將於今年完成，並在 2025 年下半年貢獻獲利。

We recently broke ground on a Blue Polymers production facility in Buckeye, Arizona. This facility will complement the Las Vegas Polymer Center. We expect the completion of this facility in late 2025.

我們最近在亞利桑那州巴克艾市的藍色聚合物生產工廠破土動工。該設施將補充拉斯維加斯聚合物中心。我們預計該設施將於 2025 年末竣工。

We continue to bring decarbonization solutions to the market that will unlock value for all of our stakeholders including the communities we serve. The renewable natural gas projects we're developing with our partners continue to advance. Two projects came online during the third quarter, bringing the total completed this year to four projects. We expect four additional RNG projects to be completed during the fourth quarter.

我們繼續向市場推出脫碳解決方案，為包括我們服務的社區在內的所有利害關係人釋放價值。我們與合作夥伴共同開發的可再生天然氣專案不斷推進。第三季有兩個項目上線，使今年完成的項目總數達到四個。我們預計另外四個 RNG 項目將在第四季度完成。

We continue to advance our commitment to fleet electrification. We currently have 28 electric collection vehicles in operation and expect to have more than 50 EVs in our fleet by the end of the year. We now have 18 facilities with commercial scale EV charging infrastructure.

我們繼續推動對車隊電氣化的承諾。目前，我們有 28 輛電動收集車在運營，預計到今年年底，我們的車隊中將擁有超過 50 輛電動車。我們現在擁有 18 個具有商業規模電動車充電基礎設施的設施。

As part of our approach to sustainability, we are committed to being an employer of choice in the markets we serve. Our third-quarter employee turnover rate improved more than 100 basis points compared to the prior year, and we are proud to be certified as a Great Place to Work for the eighth consecutive year.

作為我們永續發展方法的一部分，我們致力於成為我們所服務的市場的首選雇主。與前一年相比，我們第三季的員工流動率提高了 100 個基點以上，我們很自豪能夠連續第八年獲得「最佳工作場所」認證。

With respect to capital allocation, year to date, we have invested $104 million in strategic acquisitions. Our acquisition pipeline remains supportive of continued activity in both recycling and waste and environmental solutions. We currently have more than $200 million of transactions that are expected to close by the end of the year.

在資本配置方面，今年迄今，我們已投資 1.04 億美元用於策略性收購。我們的收購管道仍然支援回收、廢棄物和環境解決方案的持續活動。我們目前有超過 2 億美元的交易，預計今年底完成。

Year to date, we returned $834 million to shareholders, which includes $330 million of share repurchases.

今年迄今為止，我們向股東返還了 8.34 億美元，其中包括 3.3 億美元的股票回購。

I will now turn the call over to Brian, who will provide details on the quarter.

我現在將把電話轉給布萊恩，他將提供有關本季的詳細資訊。

Thanks, Jon. Core price on total revenue was 6.2%. Core price on related revenue was 7.4%, which included open market pricing of 9.1% and restricted pricing of 4.8%. The components of core price on related revenue included small container of 10.3%, large container of 6.9%, and residential of 7.2%.

謝謝，喬恩。核心價格佔總收入的6.2%。相關收入的核心價格為7.4%，其中公開市場定價為9.1%，限制性定價為4.8%。相關收入核心價格的組成部分包括小型貨櫃佔10.3%，大型貨櫃佔6.9%，住宅佔7.2%。

Average yield on total revenue was 4.6%, and average yield on related revenue was 5.5%. As expected, average yields stepped down sequentially as we began to anniversary the impact of new fees implemented last year. The fees relate to overfilled containers and recycling contamination and were enabled by our digital platform.

總收入平均收益率為4.6%，相關收入平均收益率為5.5%。正如預期的那樣，隨著我們開始慶祝去年實施的新費用的影響，平均收益率持續下降。這些費用與裝滿容器和回收污染有關，並由我們的數位平台支援。

Third-quarter volume on total revenue decreased 1.2%, and volume on related revenue decreased 1.5%. Volume results included a decrease in large container of 3.6%, primarily due to continued softness in construction-related activity and a decrease in residential of 2.9%, primarily due to municipal contracts lost in 2023 that anniversary in the fourth quarter of this year.

第三季總營收下降 1.2%，相關收入下降 1.5%。成交量結果包括大型貨櫃下降 3.6%，主要是由於建築相關活動持續疲軟，住宅銷量下降 2.9%，主要是由於今年第四季 2023 年周年紀念日的市政合約損失。

During the quarter, small container volume decreased 40 basis points, while landfill MSW increased 30 basis points.

本季度，小型貨櫃數量減少了 40 個基點，而垃圾掩埋場城市固體垃圾數量增加了 30 個基點。

Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices were $177 per ton during the third quarter. This compared to $112 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales increased revenue by 70 basis points during the quarter. Commodity prices are currently $160 per ton, reflecting a recent decline in the price for recovered cardboard, or OCC.

繼續回收。第三季大宗商品價格為每噸 177 美元。相比之下，去年的價格為每噸 112 美元。本季回收加工和商品銷售收入增加了 70 個基點。目前大宗商品價格為每噸 160 美元，反映出近期回收紙板 (OCC) 價格的下跌。

Total company adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 210 basis points to 32%. Margin performance during the quarter included margin expansion in the underlying business of 120 basis points, a 40-basis-point increase from net fuel, a 30-basis-point increase from recycled commodity prices, and a 50-basis-point benefit from an insurance recovery related to a prior-year claim. This was partially offset by a 30-basis-point decrease from acquisitions completed in the prior year.

公司調整後 EBITDA 利潤率總額擴大了 210 個基點，達到 32%。本季的利潤率表現包括基礎業務利潤率增長 120 個基點、淨燃料利潤增長 40 個基點、回收商品價格增長 30 個基點以及受益於可再生能源的利潤增長 50 個基點。保險賠償。這被上一年完成的收購減少 30 個基點部分抵銷。

Now turning to our environmental solutions business. Third-quarter environmental solutions revenue increased $60 million compared to the prior year, driven by the rollover contribution from prior-year acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the environmental solutions business expanded 290 basis points to 25.5% in the third quarter.

現在轉向我們的環境解決方案業務。由於上年收購的展期貢獻，第三季環境解決方案收入比上年增加了 6,000 萬美元。第三季環境解決方案業務調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 290 個基點，達到 25.5%。

Environmental solutions EBITDA margin was 22.6% in the prior year. Environmental solutions margin included a positive 110 basis points from an adjustment to an allowance for bad debt established in the prior year. Excluding this benefit, environmental solutions margin would have been 24.4%.

上一年環境解決方案 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.6%。環境解決方案利潤率比前一年設立的壞帳準備金調整後增加了 110 個基點。排除此收益，環境解決方案利潤率為 24.4%。

Year to date, adjusted free cash flow was $1.74 billion. The decrease from the prior year is primarily due to the timing of capital expenditures. Year-to-date net capital expenditures of $1.19 billion represents an increase of $256 million, or 27%, compared to the prior year.

年初至今，調整後自由現金流為 17.4 億美元。較上年減少的主要原因是資本支出的時間安排。年初至今淨資本支出為 11.9 億美元，較上年增加 2.56 億美元，成長 27%。

Capital spending is more ratable in 2024, whereas 2023 was heavily weighted in the fourth quarter. Prior-year capital expenditures were impacted by vendor-related delays in truck and equipment deliveries. Total debt was $12.6 billion and total liquidity $2.6 billion. Our leverage rate at the end of the quarter was approximately 2.6 times.

2024 年的資本支出較具可評估性，而 2023 年第四季的權重較高。上一年的資本支出受到供應商相關的卡車和設備交付延遲的影響。債務總額為 126 億美元，流動資金總額為 26 億美元。截至本季末，我們的槓桿比率約為 2.6 倍。

With respect to taxes, our combined tax rate and impact from equity investments in renewable energy resulted in an equivalent tax impact of 21.6% during the quarter. This favorable tax rate, driven primarily by the timing of equity investments in renewable energy, contributed $0.09 of EPS benefit during the quarter.

在稅收方面，我們的綜合稅率和再生能源股權投資的影響導致本季的稅收影響達到 21.6%。這種優惠的稅率主要受再生能源股權投資時機的推動，在本季貢獻了 0.09 美元的每股盈餘。

I will now turn the call back over to Jon.

我現在將把電話轉回給喬恩。

Thanks, Brian. With respect to 2024, we believe we are trending toward the low end of our full-year revenue guidance due to continued softness in cyclical volumes. That said, we expect to more than overcome this revenue headwind and achieve the high end of our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. As a result, we expect EBITDA margin to outperform our expectations.

謝謝，布萊恩。就 2024 年而言，我們認為，由於週期性銷售持續疲軟，我們正趨向全年營收指引的低端。也就是說，我們預計將不僅僅克服這一收入逆風，並實現全年調整後 EBITDA 指導的上限。因此，我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率將超出我們的預期。

Looking forward to 2025, we expect continued growth across the business supported by pricing ahead of underlying costs, cross-selling our complete set of products and services, and capitalizing on value-creating acquisition opportunities.

展望 2025 年，我們預計整個業務將持續成長，這得益於領先於基本成本的定價、交叉銷售我們的整套產品和服務以及利用創造價值的收購機會。

We also expect financial contribution from the investments made in sustainability innovation, including plastic circularity and renewable natural gas projects. We believe that the fundamentals of our business remain strong and supportive of continued growth in revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow, along with margin expansion in the underlying business.

我們也期望對永續創新的投資做出財務貢獻，包括塑膠循環和再生天然氣項目。我們相信，我們業務的基本面仍然強勁，並支持收入、EBITDA 和自由現金流的持續成長，以及基礎業務的利潤率擴張。

Over the long term, we believe our business can consistently deliver mid-single-digit revenue growth and grow EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow faster than the revenue. Our initial perspective on full-year 2025 is consistent with this long-term growth algorithm. We plan to provide detailed 2025 guidance on our earnings call in February.

從長遠來看，我們相信我們的業務能夠持續實現中個位數的收入成長，並且 EBITDA、EPS 和自由現金流的成長速度快於收入的成長。我們對 2025 年全年的初步看法與此長期成長演算法一致。我們計劃在 2 月的財報電話會議上提供詳細的 2025 年指導。

With that, operator, I would like to open the call to questions.

接線員，我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）Jerry Revich，高盛。

Nice quarter. Brian, I'm wondering if you could just expand if there are any other one-time type items in the quarter, really impressive performance. And as I look at the fourth-quarter guidance, it looks like you're guiding to margins to step down a couple of points more than normal seasonality 4Q versus 3Q.

不錯的季度。布萊恩，我想知道您是否可以擴展本季是否還有其他一次性類型的項目，這確實令人印象深刻的表現。當我查看第四季度的指導時，您似乎正在指導第四季度與第三季度的利潤率比正常季節性下降幾個百分點。

I'm wondering is that just conservatism, or were there any other embedded tailwinds in the third quarter beyond that debt item that you spoke about environmental services.

我想知道這只是保守主義，還是除了您談到的環境服務債務項目之外，第三季是否還有其他潛在的推動因素。

Yeah. Thanks, Jerry. Taking a look at the third quarter, we called out the two big pieces that you would sit there and say, we're somewhat large and unusual for the quarter. So the insurance recovery, which had an impact of a positive 50 basis points to the quarter itself.

是的。謝謝，傑瑞。看看第三季度，我們提出了兩個重要的部分，你會坐在那裡說，我們這個季度有點大和不尋常。保險業的復甦為本季帶來了 50 個基點的正面影響。

We called out the bad debt as well. So it was 110 basis points to environmental solutions, about 10-basis-point contribution to the enterprise taken as a whole. So 60 basis points, say, ex that, the rest, I mean, I called out the pieces about what fuel and commodity prices were doing. But the underlying business, you saw the strength of that 100 bps.

我們也指出了壞帳。因此，環境解決方案有 110 個基點，對整個企業的貢獻約為 10 個基點。所以 60 個基點，比如說，剩下的，我的意思是，我調出了有關燃料和大宗商品價格走勢的部分。但在基礎業務中，您看到了 100 個基點的強度。

Really impressive performance. And then if I can shift gears and ask you to talk about on the polymer center rollout. Can you just expand on the performance so far? How has the production ramp played out versus the initial plan? And any updates to the time lines that you folks previously shared.

確實令人印象深刻的表現。然後我可以換個話題，請您談談聚合物中心的推出嗎？您能擴展一下到目前為止的效能嗎？與最初的計劃相比，產量提升的效果如何？以及你們之前分享的時間軸的任何更新。

Sure, yeah. We're really happy in terms of the pricing we're getting. We're beating our pro forma on that. Certainly happy on the volume ramp in terms of how that equipment is building.

當然，是的。我們對所得到的定價感到非常滿意。我們在這方面擊敗了我們的準備考試。就設備的建造方式而言，我們對產量的增加當然感到高興。

We got off to a little later start than we would have liked for things all unrelated to the equipment. So permitting of the facility, getting electricity in, just getting all the things around the construction and the building envelope, those things take time. Maybe we were a little aggressive in our timeline to begin with. A little delayed from the start there, but the underlying assumptions other than a delayed start, we still feel very confident in.

對於與設備無關的事情，我們的開始時間比我們希望的要晚一些。因此，設施的許可、通電、施工和建築圍護結構周圍的所有東西都需要時間。也許我們一開始就在時間表上有點激進。從開始時間來看有一點延遲，但除了延遲開始之外的基本假設，我們仍然感到非常有信心。

And India is hitting its marks, including the construction timeline there. So we feel really good about that. Listen, we think we're producing some of the cleanest lake in the world. And so that's what the market needs. It's good for circularity and certainly going to be good for our shareholders as well.

印度正在達到目標，包括那裡的建設時間表。所以我們對此感覺非常好。聽著，我們認為我們正在創造世界上最乾淨的湖泊。這就是市場所需要的。這有利於循環，當然也有利於我們的股東。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗羅密歐、威廉布萊爾。

Had one kind on pricing, thinking about open market versus restricted. I think the last several quarters, your open market core price has been 400 basis points or more above restricted. Is that kind of a good spread for us to still think about going forward, even if some of the inflation indices continue to ramp down?

有一種定價方式，考慮開放市場與限制市場。我認為最近幾個季度，你的公開市場核心價格已經受到400個基點或更多以上的限制。即使某些通膨指數持續下降，這樣的價差是否適合我們繼續考慮未來發展？

And then in your shift away from CPI to more of those open market and alternative entities, how much further room do you think you have to continue that shift at this point?

然後，在從 CPI 轉向更多開放市場和替代實體的過程中，您認為目前還需要多少進一步的空間來繼續這種轉變？

Yeah. When you take a look at the spread, and we certainly talked about the fact that we thought we were in an elevated pricing environment in part due to the fact that there was the backdrop of elevated inflation. And we've said that throughout this year, that would step down sequentially. And as we look forward into 2025, we would expect that to step down as well.

是的。當你看利差時，我們當然談到了這樣一個事實，即我們認為我們處於較高的定價環境，部分原因是通貨膨脹加劇的背景。我們已經說過，今年全年，這項政策將依序取消。當我們展望 2025 年時，我們預期這種情況也會減弱。

Now, if you take a look back historically, open market pricing has tend to run above that which you can achieve on the restricted portion of the business. I would say right now that spread is probably a little bit more than what I would think about through the cycle.

現在，如果您回顧歷史，您會發現公開市場定價往往高於您在業務受限部分可以實現的定價。我現在想說的是，利差可能比我在整個週期中想像的還要多。

But all that said, we would expect to price in excess of our cost inflation consistent with what we've done over the last couple of you drive margin expansion in the business.

但話雖如此，我們預計定價將超過成本通膨，這與我們過去幾年推動業務利潤率擴張的做法一致。

And then in terms of moving away from the industry or rotating away from CPI, we continue to make incremental progress on that. So a couple of big contracts moving to water sewer trash, and it's really some moving to fixed and above. And it's really the portfolio that we think positions us well across the cycle.

然後在遠離行業或遠離 CPI 方面，我們繼續在這方面取得漸進的進展。因此，有幾個大合約轉移到下水道垃圾，而且確實有一些轉移到固定及以上。我們認為，正是這個投資組合使我們在整個週期中處於有利地位。

Yeah. We're about 61% of those contracts that were historically pegged to headline CPI that have moved to something that we would consider favorable.

是的。在歷史上與總體 CPI 掛鉤的合約中，約有 61% 已轉向我們認為有利的水平。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just quickly, wondering if we could talk about labor availability a bit. I think based on the BLS data, the wage inflation industry is kind of mid-single digits.

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後很快就想知道我們是否可以談談勞動力的可用性。我認為根據勞工統計局的數據，行業工資通膨處於中個位數。

Curious if that's still what you're seeing as well. And it kind of as the overall labor market has maybe cooled a bit the past few months? Have you seen any changes in labor availability?

很好奇你是否也看到了這樣的情況。過去幾個月整體勞動市場可能有所降溫？您是否看到勞動力可用性有任何變化？

We mentioned turnover down 100 basis points year over year. We continue to trend in a really positive direction there. Labor cost inflation is 4.5-ish we're hanging out right there. And again, that cake is largely baked because we give our people a wage increase at the end of February. On that front, we expect that to step down marginally as we move into next year based on where the current numbers are pointing.

我們提到營業額較去年同期下降 100 個基點。我們繼續朝著非常積極的方向發展。勞動成本通膨率為 4.5 左右，我們就在那裡閒晃。再說一遍，這個蛋糕很大程度上已經烤好了，因為我們在二月底給員工加薪了。在這方面，我們預計，根據目前的數字，進入明年後，這一數字將略有下降。

And then, yes, Labor Bill is improving. There's still categories like technicians, which have been historically tough in this industry and that you're getting tougher. That's why we've really integrated into technical education in sort of our own tech institute and are growing our own and having a lot of success fielding entry-level techs out of that center.

然後，是的，勞工法案正在改善。仍然有像技術人員這樣的類別，在這個行業中歷史上一直很艱難，而且你會變得越來越強硬。這就是為什麼我們真正融入了我們自己的技術學院的技術教育，並且正在發展我們自己的技術學院，並在從該中心培養入門級技術人員方面取得了巨大的成功。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

I was hoping to ask for some additional color on the core price deceleration this quarter? I know you mentioned the anniversarying of the new fees from last year. Obviously, that was expected. Anything else that you would point to in the quarter to call out that was notable in terms of the price environment and how we should be thinking about it as we progress through the year.

我希望對本季核心價格減速提出一些額外的看法？我知道您提到了去年新費用的周年紀念日。顯然，這是預料之中的。您在本季指出的任何其他在價格環境方面值得注意的事情，以及我們在今年的進展中應該如何考慮它的事情。

Yeah. If you take a look at the sequential step down from Q2 to Q4, I also point out that the restricted portion of our business went from 5.6% to 4.9%. And that's just on the price increase perspective. So again, that's just reflective of the indices themselves.

是的。如果你看一下從第二季到第四季的連續下降，我還指出，我們業務的受限部分從 5.6% 降至 4.9%。這還只是從價格上漲的角度來看。再說一次，這只是指數本身的反映。

And again, and as expected, right? We knew that it would step down sequentially, as I mentioned previously, so is our cost inflation. And as long as we can maintain that spread, that's how we drive margin expansion in the business.

又如預期的那樣，對嗎？正如我之前提到的，我們知道它會依次下降，我們的成本通膨也是如此。只要我們能夠維持這種利差，這就是我們推動業務利潤率擴張的方式。

Great. And I did want to ask about volume as well. I know you mentioned the special waste and the construction softness. Should we continue to expect those trends to continue in the upcoming quarters? And anything else to call out on the volume side would be helpful.

偉大的。我確實也想問音量。我知道你提到了特殊廢物和建築柔軟度。我們是否應該繼續期望這些趨勢在未來幾季繼續下去？任何其他關於音量方面的內容都會有所幫助。

Yeah. Look, I think across the industry in the last 12 to 18 months, we're in a flat to slightly negative demand environment from a unit standpoint. So it probably hasn't been talked about or well understood. On that front, and it's a cyclical portions driving that. It's also true a little bit in the industrial side of the business, it's where a large container permanent we're gaining customers.

是的。看，我認為在過去 12 到 18 個月中，從單位角度來看，整個行業的需求環境持平甚至略有下降。所以它可能還沒有被談論或很好地理解。在這方面，這是周期性部分的推動。在工業方面也是如此，我們正在透過大型貨櫃永久贏得客戶。

So we're gaining share there, but we're seeing activity and has continued to be relatively soft at individual customers on that front. Look, on the construction side, whether this happens in 3 to 6 months, or it happens in 9 to 12 months, I'm optimistic on that side of the business for both commercial and residential.

因此，我們正在那裡獲得份額，但我們看到了活動，並且在這方面對個人客戶的態度仍然相對疲軟。你看，在建築方面，無論是3到6個月內，還是9到12個月內，我對商業和住宅這方面的業務都持樂觀態度。

Interest rates coming down certainly helps with that. you've got both sides of the aisle talking about housing policy. We've underbuilt single-family homes in the United States in the last 15 years. And so there's a lot of pent-up demand on that front.

利率下降肯定對此有所幫助。兩黨都在談論住房政策。過去 15 年裡，美國的單戶住宅建設不足。因此，這方面存在著大量被壓抑的需求。

And then we're starting to see some really interesting signs here on special waste and the industrial activity, and there's always a little bit of paralysis in an election year, and we're starting to see a pipeline that's been actually quite strong all year, but jobs haven't moved and those jobs are starting to move here in the fourth quarter. So we're pretty optimistic for the remainder of the year and certainly into 2025.

然後我們開始看到一些關於特殊廢物和工業活動的非常有趣的跡象，在選舉年總是會出現一些癱瘓，我們開始看到全年實際上都非常強勁的管道，但工作崗位並沒有轉移，這些工作崗位將在第四季開始轉移到這裡。因此，我們對今年剩餘時間，尤其是 2025 年持非常樂觀的態度。

Kevin Chang, CIBC.

凱文張，加拿大帝國商業銀行。

Congrats on some good results. I think on the Q2 call, you mentioned just on M&A here. You had mentioned, I think, about a $300 million pipeline that at advanced stages. It looks like you booked about $200 million in Q3 here. Just wondering as we think of that incremental $100 million, is that something you think you can close by year-end, or is there an update to that pipeline as you work through that pipeline?

恭喜取得一些好成績。我想在第二季的電話會議上，您剛剛提到了併購。我想，您曾提到一項價值 3 億美元的專案已處於後期階段。看起來您在第三季在這裡預訂了大約 2 億美元。只是想知道，當我們想到增量的 1 億美元時，您是否認為您可以在年底前關閉該項目，或者在您處理該管道時是否會對該管道進行更新？

Maybe broader backdrop, coming off three really great years of M&A. Our commitment to M&A has certainly not dwindled at our outlook and our optimism going forward hasn't changed. There's an ebb and flow. So we closed a couple of really big deals in Q4 last year, first half got off to a little bit of a slower start this year.

也許是更廣泛的背景，經歷了三年真正偉大的併購。我們對併購的承諾當然沒有因為我們的前景而減弱，我們對未來的樂觀態度也沒有改變。有潮起潮落。因此，我們去年第四季完成了幾筆非常大的交易，今年上半年的開局有點慢。

I think if you put together what we've already done this year and what we expect to close in the fourth quarter, we're more like $300 million where we gave you an indicator of closer to $500 million at the start of the year. A lot of those deals are starting to build here, and so I expect us to have a really good first half next year on that front.

我認為，如果你把我們今年已經完成的工作和我們預計在第四季度完成的工作放在一起，我們的收入更像是 3 億美元，而我們在年初給你的指標接近 5 億美元。其中許多交易都開始在這裡進行，所以我預計明年上半年我們在這方面會有一個非常好的表現。

So that gives you a sense of the movement on that front. But in our outlook and our enthusiasm for M&A remains strong, and we expect that to be a meaningful contributor next year.

這樣你就可以感受到這方面的動向。但我們的前景和對併購的熱情依然強勁，我們預計這將在明年做出有意義的貢獻。

No, that's helpful. And just my second one here, I think about a month ago, you could place an order for about 100 EVs. And I think you're targeting, I think, half of new purchases in 2028 will be electric vehicles. I guess when we hear other commercial fleet operators, there seems to be a growing pushback on I guess, adopting this technology, whether the arguments of technology is not ready yet or infrastructure is not ready.

不，這很有幫助。這是我的第二個訂單，我想大約一個月前，您可以訂購大約 100 輛電動車。我認為你的目標是 2028 年新購買的一半將是電動車。我想，當我們聽到其他商業車隊營運商的聲音時，我想，採用這項技術的阻力似乎越來越大，無論是技術的論點還沒有準備好還是基礎設施還沒有準備好。

Just as you think of your EV strategy in that 2020 time line, just I guess how you see the their ability to keep pace, I guess, with the targets you have just looking out four years from now?

正如您在 2020 年時間表中思考您的電動車策略一樣，我想您如何看待他們與您剛剛制定的四年後目標保持同步的能力？

Yeah, definitely will be people that move faster and people that move slower. I mean we've learned from all kinds of experience that EV isn't just a truck, it's a system, so you need to understand how to put in the infrastructure and get after that early. You need to understand the incentive environment on that front because that certainly accelerates adoption and shortens the payback period, and we've had teams working on that for three years.

是的，肯定會有移動得更快的人和移動得更慢的人。我的意思是，我們從各種經驗中了解到，電動車不僅僅是一輛卡車，它還是一個系統，因此您需要了解如何建立基礎設施並儘早實現這一目標。您需要了解這方面的激勵環境，因為這肯定會加速採用並縮短投資回收期，而我們的團隊已經為此工作了三年。

And from the unlock is somebody building a truly studs up EV vehicle. No one's ever done that in our space before until Oshkosh or their McNeils vehicle. And that's a game changer because that allows you to get enough battery power on the vehicle that you can run a full day without sacrificing payload. And that was always the design parameter we had, which is we're not going to sacrifice productivity to do that.

從解鎖開始，有人就會建造一輛真正的電動車。直到奧什科甚或他們的麥克尼爾車輛之前，沒有人在我們的空間做到這一點。這是一個遊戲規則改變者，因為它可以讓您在車輛上獲得足夠的電池電量，並且可以在不犧牲有效負載的情況下運行一整天。這始終是我們的設計參數，我們不會為此犧牲生產力。

So we're thrilled with the product that we are running. I think there'll be other OEMs. Hopefully, they get there. This is one sense people to move, but there's certainly going to be winners and losers in the short to medium term in terms of pace of adoption.

因此，我們對我們正在運行的產品感到非常興奮。我認為還會有其他 OEM 廠商。希望他們能夠到達那裡。這是人們應該採取行動的一種感覺，但就採用速度而言，中短期內肯定會有贏家和輸家。

Konark Gupta, Scotia Capital.

科納克·古普塔，斯科舍資本。

Thanks, and good afternoon, everyone. Just wanted to maybe catch up on the housekeeping items first on the M&A side. Do you talk about the rollover effect in 2025 based on what you have closed today?

謝謝，大家下午好。只是想也許先在併購方面趕上內務管理專案。您是否根據今天關閉的內容談論 2025 年的展期效應？

The rollover impact. Yeah. So we would expect right now to see relatively negligible to '25 growth. It's 10 to 20 basis points at this point.

翻車影響。是的。因此，我們目前預期 25 年的成長相對可以忽略不計。目前為 10 至 20 個基點。

Okay. And obviously, there's probably upside if you are out to some of the acquisitions you're talking about in Q4, maybe then.

好的。顯然，如果你在第四季進行一些收購，也許會有好處。

That is correct. Because that only includes that, which is actually closed through the third quarter, there would be a rollover impact of anything that closes in the fourth quarter.

這是正確的。因為這只包括實際上在第三季結束的項目，所以第四季度結束的任何項目都會產生展期影響。

Makes sense. And then my question is on the margin side. So if I look at the trend this year so far, your margins have sequentially expanded and you talked to some of the nuances on Q3 for sure. But then Q4, the margin kind of drops on an implied basis heading into '25.

有道理。然後我的問題是關於邊際的。因此，如果我看看今年迄今為止的趨勢，您的利潤率已經連續擴大，並且您肯定談到了第三季的一些細微差別。但進入 25 年第四季，利潤率隱含下降。

I'm just thinking like what are some of the puts and takes you're thinking about margin as some of the circularity projects are ramping up maybe and then some of these headwinds might fade away next year? What's the best sort of proxy for thinking about margin expansion next year?

我只是在想，隨著一些循環項目的增加，您正在考慮利潤率的一些看跌期權和看跌期權是什麼，然後這些逆風中的一些可能會在明年消失？考慮明年利潤率擴張的最佳指標是什麼？

Yeah. We're certainly not giving 2025 guidance, but an outlook that we've talked about in the prepared remarks and we mentioned often to investors is that we want to grow revenue mid-single digits and then grow EBITDA margin or EBITDA slightly faster than that, which implies EBITDA margin expansion and free cash flow was slightly faster than that.

是的。我們當然不會給出2025 年的指導，但我們在準備好的發言中討論過並且經常向投資者提到的前景是，我們希望收入增長到個位數中位數，然後EBITDA 利潤率或EBITDA成長速度略快於這個數字，這意味著 EBITDA 利潤率擴張和自由現金流略快於此。

And EBITDA margin across the cycle, I think, 30 to 50 basis points. Obviously, this year is going to be stronger than that, but we would certainly go into next year kind of in that ZIP code in terms of our expectations of how we're going to expand margin in the business.

我認為整個週期的 EBITDA 利潤率為 30 到 50 個基點。顯然，今年會比今年更強勁，但我們肯定會在明年進入該郵遞區號，因為我們對如何擴大業務利潤率的期望。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

It's less than three years since the Eco acquisition and I believe you said that the EBITDA in environmental solutions is about 24%. Going back to 2021, Eco standalone targets were like $17 million, and I think $40 million of synergies probably picks you up 300, 400 basis points.

收購 Eco 還不到三年，我相信你說過環境解決方案的 EBITDA 約為 24%。回到 2021 年，Eco 的獨立目標約為 1700 萬美元，我認為 4000 萬美元的協同效應可能會讓你上漲 300,400 個基點。

Is the delta there the remainder? Is that just improved pricing? Or is there any kind of acquisition mix benefit in that improvement as well? Any help you can give us there?

剩下的還有Delta嗎？這只是提高了定價嗎？或者這種改進也能帶來某種收購組合的好處？您能為我們提供什麼協助嗎？

Yeah, no, it's in every lever. So starting out on the revenue side, it's customer mix. So we're going through verticals and understanding willingness to pay and where we have pricing power and what the more profitable verticals are less profitable verticals. So you've seen some customer churn in that space this year as we've certainly pushed price because our services are valuable and found lots of willingness to pay and a few people that want to experience lower quality for a period of time in that front.

是的，不，它存在於每個槓桿中。因此，從收入方面開始，就是客戶組合。因此，我們正在研究垂直產業，了解支付意願、我們在哪裡擁有定價權，以及哪些垂直產業利潤較高，哪些垂直產業利潤較低。因此，今年您已經看到該領域的一些客戶流失，因為我們確實提高了價格，因為我們的服務很有價值，並且發現很多人願意付費，並且少數人希望在該領域一段時間內體驗較低的品質.

And then just the pricing of -- it's a top-line pricing, very tactical account-level pricing, kind of looking at every lever there, still more upside. Certainly, they're going forward as we put in the systems and technology to give our team members better tools on that front.

然後就是定價——這是一個頂線定價，非常戰術性的帳戶級定價，考慮到每一個槓桿，還有更多的上漲空間。當然，隨著我們投入系統和技術，為我們的團隊成員提供這方面更好的工具，他們就會向前邁進。

And then good cost management, cost discipline, better labor utilization. As we get bigger, especially in the field services side of the business, you're able to deploy labor in different markets and therefore, get better utilization rates on that labor. So really proud of the team and the work we've done there.

然後是良好的成本管理、成本紀律、更好的勞動力利用率。隨著我們規模的擴大，尤其是在業務的現場服務方面，您可以在不同的市場部署勞動力，從而獲得更好的勞動力利用率。我們為我們的團隊和我們在那裡所做的工作感到非常自豪。

We said we thought we could get to 25% of the midterm target. And there's an ebb and flow across quarters, of course, but we've made faster progress than I think we originally anticipated and have high aspirations for that business to grow both units and margin going forward.

我們說我們認為我們可以達到中期目標的 25%。當然，每個季度都會有起起落落，但我們取得的進展比我最初預期的要快，並且對該業務未來成長單位和利潤率抱有很高的期望。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

托比·索默（Tobey Sommer），Truist 證券公司。

Just following up on the environmental services and US Ecology business. Is your changes in your view on the long-term margins that you think you can approach over sort of many net? And I'd love to get your perspective on the disposal market digesting incremental capacity. I think there's an incinerator coming online.

剛跟進環境服務和美國生態業務。您對長期利潤率的看法是否發生了變化，您認為您可以透過多種方式實現這一目標？我很想了解您對消化增量產能的處置市場的看法。我認為有一個焚燒爐即將上線。

Yeah. About 25% free cash flow converges with the recycling and waste business across the cycle, just given the lower capital intensity of that business. Over time, the longer term, we don't see a constraint of why EBITDA margin in that business couldn't be very similar to the recycling waste business. Just given the products, right? These are very technical complicate streams.

是的。考慮到該業務的資本密集度較低，大約 25% 的自由現金流在整個週期中與回收和廢物業務整合。隨著時間的推移，從長遠來看，我們不認為該業務的 EBITDA 利潤率與回收廢棄物業務非常相似。剛剛給了產品，對吧？這些都是技術性非常複雜的流。

The limited number of outlets requires a lot of environmental compliance to handle those appropriately on that front. And so we think it's a very valuable service, and we're going to continue to price for that over time.

網點數量有限，需要大量的環境合規性來妥善處理這方面的問題。因此，我們認為這是一項非常有價值的服務，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續為其定價。

In terms of new incineration coming online, it's welcomed. The industry has been short supplied for a long period of time, and we don't see that as a challenge or a constraint. We see that as an opportunity because there's pent-up demand that, that new capacity will be able to fulfill.

就新上線的焚燒而言，這是受歡迎的。該行業長期以來一直供不應求，我們並不認為這是一個挑戰或限制。我們認為這是一個機會，因為新產能將能夠滿足被壓抑的需求。

In terms of the pace of M&A, it's been a little bit slower than I had anticipated year to date. I was wondering if you could speak to that as well as the margin profile of the targets generally. I'm wondering to the extent supply chain fleet, wage growth, technology, other factors have actually sort of pressured the margins of the targets that you're looking at.

就併購步伐而言，今年迄今比我預期的要慢一些。我想知道您是否可以談談這一點以及目標的整體利潤狀況。我想知道供應鏈車隊、薪資成長、技術和其他因素實際上在多大程度上對您所關注的目標的利潤造成了壓力。

Yeah, I mentioned the ebb and flow of pace of M&A. Again, we're going to stay disciplined. I think, in fact, we just looked at this. We're 8:1, right? For every eight opportunities that we look at, eventually, we close one of those, because we're going to be very disciplined.

是的，我提到了併購步伐的起伏。再次強調，我們將保持紀律。我想，事實上，我們只是看了這個。我們是8:1，對吧？對於我們關注的每八個機會，我們最終會關閉其中一個，因為我們將非常自律。

First, it's going to have to meet our strategic hurdle. Are we the national owners for this? So is it a fit, A; and B, does it meet our financial stream on that. And so we're looking for cash-on-cash returns double-digit, post-synergy on that. So we're going to remain very disciplined.

首先，它必須克服我們的戰略障礙。我們是這個國家的所有者嗎？那麼合適嗎，A； B，它是否符合我們的財務狀況。因此，我們正在尋求協同後實現兩位數的現金回報率。所以我們將保持非常自律。

And again, there's ebb and flow, lots of conversations. Sometimes those things break quickly and sometimes they take a little longer in that front. And that's the period we're in right now, but again, our enthusiasm has not changed.

再說一遍，有潮起潮落，有很多對話。有時這些事情很快就會崩潰，有時則需要更長的時間。這就是我們現在所處的時期，但我們的熱情並沒有改變。

In terms of the margin profile, it's less about what it has today and more about what it can become because oftentimes in these businesses, we're going to park the trucks, right? We're going to recapitalize the fleet. We are going to layer into our IT systems, right?

就利潤率而言，與其說它現在擁有什麼，不如說它能成為什麼，因為在這些企業中，我們經常停放卡車，對吧？我們將對艦隊進行重組。我們將分層進入我們的 IT 系統，對嗎？

Some of those drivers will come over, some won't because we layer it right into our density. And so we can take routes out of the system and do the same amount of work, and that's why we drive so much value in these deals.

有些司機會過來，有些則不會，因為我們將其直接分層到我們的密度中。因此，我們可以從系統中取出路線並完成相同數量的工作，這就是為什麼我們在這些交易中創造瞭如此多的價值。

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

泰勒布朗，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I got a couple of questions here. So first, I want to come back to the implied Q4 guide. But if I use the high end, it implies that Q4 is around $1.2 billion, which I think is down high-single-digit from Q3, which is just worse than normal seasonality. And I get that you've got the 60 basis points from bad debt in insurance, but it still feels a little conservative, or am I missing something?

我在這裡有幾個問題。首先，我想回到隱含的第四季指南。但如果我使用高端，則意味著第四季度約為 12 億美元，我認為該數字比第三季下降了高個位數，這只是比正常的季節性更糟。我知道你從保險壞帳中得到了 60 個基點，但它仍然感覺有點保守，或者我錯過了什麼？

I would say so the opening remarks, we talked about low end of the revenue guide, high end of the EBITDA margin guide. We're getting towards the end of the year. We're focusing our plans on 2025 on that front. We don't put a lot of time and energy in getting decimal level accurate on updating the guide. We gave you the markers where we're doing really good about where we're going to end up Q4 and into 2025.

我想說的是，在開場白中，我們討論了收入指南的低端和 EBITDA 利潤率指南的高端。我們已經快到年底了。我們將 2025 年的計畫重點放在這方面。我們不會在更新指南時投入大量時間和精力來獲得精確的小數位。我們為您提供了我們在第四季度和 2025 年的表現方面做得非常好的標記。

Okay, that's fair. And then just to be clear on the implied volume guidance in Q4, is there any benefit from hurricane cleanup efforts in there?

好吧，這很公平。然後，為了明確第四季的隱含交易量指導，那裡的颶風清理工作有什麼好處嗎？

There may be a little bit. Again, we don't plan on that, certainly. Sometimes you get actually a quite a nice lift coming out of these. Sometimes you get a little less than you think about.

可能有一點點。再說一遍，我們當然不打算這麼做。有時你實際上會從這些中獲得相當好的提升。有時你得到的比你想像的少。

Our primary focus is, first, taking care of our people. Some of them have been deeply impacted, especially in [the lean]. So we're going to get them back on their feet. And when they're back on their feet, they can get back to work on that front. And then on the back end, and oftentimes, we end up making some money that helps pay for that more. But if that comes, that's just icing on the cake.

我們的首要重點是，首先，照顧我們的員工。其中一些受到了深刻的影響，特別是在[精實]。所以我們要讓他們重新站起來。當他們重新站起來時，他們就可以重新開始這方面的工作。然後在後端，通常情況下，我們最終會賺到一些錢來幫助支付更多費用。但如果真的發生了，那隻是錦上添花。

And then I want to come at '25 a little bit different because I think there's actually quite a bit going on next year. There's actually a number of moving pieces, discrete pieces, if I'm not mistaken, because I think you have polymer, blue polymer plants coming online, you mentioned that.

然後我想在 25 歲的時候有點不同，因為我認為明年實際上會發生很多事情。如果我沒記錯的話，實際上有許多移動的部件、離散的部件，因為我認為你們有聚合物、藍色聚合物工廠即將上線，你提到過這一點。

I think your RISE platform still has some incremental benefit that you should get, I think you have maybe $40 million of savings to go there. I think MPower comes on -- that's going to be a modest benefit, you should have at least some benefit from RNG.

我認為你的 RISE 平台仍然有一些你應該獲得的增量收益，我認為你可能可以節省 4000 萬美元。我認為 MPower 出現了——這將是一個適度的好處，你至少應該從 RNG 中獲得一些好處。

So Brian, I don't know if you can, but can you maybe bucket all that together? But how much do those incremental drivers help '25? Is it $50 million, $100 million? Just any broad buckets would be very helpful, if you can.

所以布萊恩，我不知道你是否可以，但你能把所有這些都放在一起嗎？但這些增量驅動因素對 25 世紀有多大幫助？是5000萬美元還是1億美元？如果可以的話，任何寬泛的桶都會非常有幫助。

Yeah. Let's take those. Let's just talk about sustainability innovation, which would include the RNG portfolio, polymer center and blue polymers, right? So next year, if you think about what we're expecting from an incremental, so this would be '25 over '24. It's about $75 million of revenue and $30 million to $35 million worth of EBITDA.

是的。讓我們拿那些。我們只談談永續創新，其中包括 RNG 產品組合、聚合物中心和藍色聚合物，對嗎？所以明年，如果你考慮我們對增量的期望，那麼這將是「25 年超過 24 年」。其收入約為 7500 萬美元，EBITDA 價值 3000 萬至 3500 萬美元。

So again, coming in at a nice incremental accretive margin to the portfolio, primarily driven by the RNG side of that. As you mentioned, we do expect some benefits from Empower. But remember, we're going to deploy that in a phased approach. And we just started the initial business units that are getting that system, so that will be deployed throughout the year. And as we exit '25, we would expect to be fully deployed.

再說一次，投資組合的增量利潤率不錯，這主要是由 RNG 方面推動的。正如您所提到的，我們確實期望 Empower 能帶來一些好處。但請記住，我們將分階段部署它。我們剛剛啟動了獲得該系統的初始業務部門，因此該系統將在全年進行部署。當我們退出 25 世紀時，我們預計將得到全面部署。

So we called out $20 million of benefit at run rate. So you can kind of think about half of that or so being realized in '25 would have in -- and to your question on the RISE platform and some of the fees that we're generating, we talked about from a fee perspective that we've realized over $60 million of those fees, but that's already in the run rate, right?

因此，我們按運行率提供了 2000 萬美元的福利。所以你可以想一下，大約一半的費用將在 25 年實現——對於你關於 RISE 平台的問題以及我們產生的一些費用，我們從費用的角度討論了我們已經實現了超過6000 萬美元的這些費用，但這已經在運行費率中了，對嗎？

So we've had that throughout the year, and we're starting to comp that in Q3 of this year. From a product in, we've got about $25 million more to go. You can think about half of that coming in '25, and half in '26.

因此，我們全年都在這樣做，並且我們將在今年第三季開始對此進行比較。從產品投入來看，我們還有大約 2500 萬美元的資金需要投入。你可以想像其中一半將在 25 年實現，一半將在 26 年實現。

Okay, okay. Perfect. So there's some '25 into '26. Now the other thing is, will there be, based on what we know today, an alternative tax credit sunset headwind?

好吧，好吧。完美的。所以有一些'25進入'26。現在的另一件事是，根據我們今天所知，是否會出現替代性稅收抵免日落逆風？

You're talking about the CNG tax credit?

您是在談論 CNG 稅收抵免嗎？

Correct. Correct.

正確的。正確的。

Yeah. We are not assuming that in '25. We just follow the law. And so, again, right now, that's set to expire. So that is not included in our projection for '25. And that's about -- for us, that runs about $15 million.

是的。我們不會在 25 年做出這樣的假設。我們只是遵守法律。所以，現在，這又要到期了。因此，這不包括在我們對 25 年的預測中。對我們來說，這大約是 1500 萬美元。

Sorry, 15?

對不起，15？

15, yeah.

15，是的。

Brian Butler, Stifel.

布萊恩巴特勒，斯蒂菲爾。

Just first one, can we talk maybe about where internal inflation has been running as compared to the CPI headline kind of what was that trending in the third quarter? And how does that look in the fourth quarter and then, I guess, 2025, if you have any color?

首先，我們能否談談與消費者物價指數（CPI）標題相比，內部通膨的運作情況，即第三季的趨勢是什麼？如果你有什麼顏色的話，第四季以及我想 2025 年的情況會怎麼樣？

Yeah, a good story, right? You're seeing that inflation come down. So I mentioned labor about 4.5%, and that's a pretty good indication of the overall cost inflation.

是的，一個好故事，對吧？你會看到通貨膨脹率下降。所以我提到勞動力約為 4.5%，這是整體成本通膨的一個很好的指標。

There's some puts and takes in our categories. Maintenance and a real highlight in terms of that was the category certainly is running hot the last couple of years, and that's improved from lots of different reasons. One, we're getting truck deliveries. So putting out our parking older trucks and taking on new trucks with less maintenance intensity.

我們的類別中有一些放和取。維護和真正的亮點是，該類別在過去幾年中確實很熱門，並且由於許多不同的原因而得到了改善。第一，我們正在接受卡車送貨。因此，我們將停放舊卡車並更換維護強度較低的新卡車。

And then also turnover continues to decline. We're doing more work internally versus outsourcing it to third parties, and that's a cheaper labor rate. Parts inflation certainly modulated as well all those pieces are helping on that. And we expect that continue to improve modestly into 2025, so continued deceleration.

然後營業額也繼續下降。與外包給第三方相比，我們在內部做了更多的工作，而且勞動力價格更便宜。零件通膨肯定也受到了調節，所有這些零件都對此有所幫助。我們預計到 2025 年，情況將繼續小幅改善，因此將繼續減速。

Okay, great. And then when you went through the buckets on what rolls into '25 for sustainability, e-power arrived. How should we think about the capital spending that's attached to that versus what was spent in 2024?

好的，太好了。然後，當您仔細研究 25 世紀永續發展的各個方面時，電力就出現了。與 2024 年的支出相比，我們應該如何考慮與之相關的資本支出？

Relatively consistent. Remember, when you think about what we're doing when we're investing in NG, when we're making those investments, that's in a JV structure. So that comes through more like an acquisition than it does CapEx.

比較一致。請記住，當你想到我們在投資 NG 時所做的事情時，當我們進行這些投資時，那就是在合資結構中。因此，這更像是收購，而不是資本支出。

But when you think about polymer center and when you think about what we're going to do from an EV perspective, we would expect those to be on par what we did this year, slightly higher, but nothing hope to change the CapEx as a percent of revenue.

但是，當你考慮聚合物中心，當你從電動車的角度考慮我們要做什麼時，我們預計這些將與我們今年所做的持平，略高，但沒有任何希望改變資本支出作為收入的百分比。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱，奧本海默。

I think we said last quarter 32% EBITDA margins could be achievable over time. And well, here you are. So well done. I want to ask about Environmental Solutions. I think in the prepared remarks, you mentioned it was largely due to the acquisition revenue growth.

我想我們上個季度說過，隨著時間的推移，32% 的 EBITDA 利潤率是可以實現的。好吧，你來了。做得很好。我想問一下環境解決方案。我認為在準備好的發言中，您提到這主要是由於收購收入的成長。

Can you just talk about the organic trends in the quarter, maybe how you see the pipeline for shaping up?

您能否談談本季的有機趨勢，或者您如何看待未來的發展？

Yeah. There's certainly -- there also been some churn, which I mentioned, right? And we are going to continue to test the bounds of customer willingness to pay. We believe you have to do that as a leader in the marketplace when the services are highly valued.

是的。當然，也有一些流失，我有提到過，對吧？我們將繼續測試客戶支付意願的界限。我們相信，當服務受到高度重視時，作為市場領導者，您必須這樣做。

And we also know that customers come back around. They experience with a different provider. And with high-quality service, where we're engaged with them from a safety standpoint, sustainability standpoint, digital standpoint, that has value.

我們也知道客戶會回頭。他們在不同的提供者那裡體驗過。憑藉高品質的服務，我們從安全的角度、可持續發展的角度、數字的角度與他們互動，這是有價值的。

Ultimately, those customers oftentimes come back on that front. So little flat -- more flat this year from a volume standpoint than we pricing obviously exceeded our expectations. And when forced to choose, I'll take that trade-off all day. Now I push the team that we want to grow above stand price, and we'll have a plan to do that in 2025.

最終，這些客戶經常會回來。如此少的持平——從數量的角度來看，今年比我們的定價更加持平，顯然超出了我們的預期。當被迫做出選擇時，我會整天做出權衡。現在，我向團隊提出我們希望將業務發展到高於標準價格的目標，我們將製定計劃在 2025 年實現這一目標。

And to that point, you talked about maybe some faster pace of margin reasonable to think about for ES versus overall, you talked about the 30 bps for the overall business. sort of like 100 bps of the right level on an annual basis to be thinking about the segment?

就這一點而言，您談到了 ES 相對於整體而言可能合理考慮的更快的利潤率，您談到了整體業務的 30 個基點。每年 100 個基點的正確水準是否適合考慮該細分市場？

Yeah. I think we've talked about 80 to 100 basis points across the cycle and some years out a little faster in some years may be lower. But if you look at the trend, I think that's a ratable pace where we could take margins.

是的。我認為我們已經討論了整個週期的 80 到 100 個基點，有些年份會更快一點，有些年份可能會更低。但如果你看看趨勢，我認為這是一個我們可以獲得利潤的可調整的速度。

Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

Sabahat Khan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Great. Just a follow-up on the last question there. Just in terms of the discussions you're having with your customers as the absolute level of headline inflation is moderating, just their willingness to sort of give that spread over the cost base? And are you finding it easier or harder than it was maybe a year ago and it's sort of the directional rate cuts and things like that helping at all?

偉大的。只是對最後一個問題的跟進。就您與客戶進行的討論而言，隨著整體通膨的絕對水準正在放緩，他們是否願意在成本基礎上提供這種利差？你覺得這比一年前更容易還是更困難？

I would say broadly, if we're in a world 3.54% inflation, that's a pretty good spot for us to be, right? We've seen what really high inflation looks like, and that was certainly a be workable for a period of time. Over time, that's very unworkable because of what the Fed will do and as they'll end up crashing the economy to bring that down.

我想說的是，如果世界通膨率達到 3.54%，那對我們來說是一個非常好的情況，對吧？我們已經看到了真正的高通膨是什麼樣子，這在一段時間內肯定是可行的。隨著時間的推移，這是非常不可行的，因為聯準會將採取什麼措施，並且最終會導致經濟崩潰。

We've lived in a period of incredibly low inflation, and that's really hard because we're going to give our people a wage increase every year as we know that their real costs are going to go up on that front. So living in, again, that kind of 3%, 3.5% zone is a really good spot for us to be.

我們生活在一個通貨膨脹率極低的時期，這真的很困難，因為我們每年都會為我們的人民增加工資，因為我們知道他們的實際成本會在這方面上升。因此，生活在 3%、3.5% 的區域對我們來說確實是一個好地方。

Great. And then just on the volume front, maybe if you can just give some perspective on. I think as these rates get cut, I think you're indicating you want pricing and unit volume growth next year, ideally, maybe just some perspective on what you're seeing on the economic activity of the cyclical units?

偉大的。然後就在音量方面，也許你可以給一些觀點。我認為，隨著這些利率的下調，我認為您表明您希望明年的定價和單位數量增長，理想情況下，也許只是您對週期性單位經濟活動的一些看法？

And then secondly, where you are on the volume churn front, if there's any more, that's still to come in '25?

其次，你在銷售流失方面處於什麼位置，如果還有更多的話，那還會在 25 年出現嗎？

Yeah. I think I mentioned in the past that from a churn standpoint, every time we do M&A, there's always going to be some work that we're going to turn out of the portfolio. There's going to be some municipal contracts. We know that we are going to upgrade or replace in terms of price, and we know that there's likely some broker work that we don't treat those as customers. We treat people who generate recycling and waste as customers.

是的。我想我過去曾提到過，從客戶流失的角度來看，每次我們進行併購時，我們總是會從投資組合中剔除一些工作。將會有一些市政合約。我們知道我們將在價格方面進行升級或更換，我們知道可能有一些經紀人工作我們不會將其視為客戶。我們將產生回收和廢物的人視為客戶。

So that's going to get turned out of the portfolio. We're seeing that this year for sure on that front. And the cyclical volume, listen, the construction is down and our large Canada business is certainly down year over year from a unit standpoint quarter over quarter.

所以這將從投資組合中消失。今年我們肯定會在這方面看到這一點。聽著，週期性的數量正在下降，從單位的角度來看，我們加拿大的大型業務肯定逐年下降。

And so that's just a reflection of what's happening in the underlying construction activity. And I think what the really good news is, given, again, this broader demand environment, which is when you put all the pieces together, right, something south of flat, right? You're seeing really good pricing behavior and conduct and performance. And I think if you take a look 20 years back, you just would not have seen that. You would have seen people chasing units to try to keep trucks utilized.

因此，這只是基礎建設活動中發生的情況的反映。我認為真正的好消息是什麼，再次考慮到更廣泛的需求環境，也就是當你把所有的部分放在一起時，對吧，平面南邊的東西，對吧？您會看到非常好的定價行為、行為和績效。我認為如果你回顧 20 年前，你根本不會看到這一點。您可能會看到人們追逐單位以試圖保持卡車的利用率。

And what we're doing and others apparently are parking vehicles and understanding that right, your people need to have a wage increase every year, and it's important to go out and price. And so I think you're seeing a market that's behaving rationally and that's really beneficial. And as we see, again, really good growth indicators on the horizon, whether that's three months, six months, nine months, but we're pretty optimistic on that front. A little bit of volume will be a really good place to be.

我們和其他人正在做的事情顯然是停放車輛並理解這一點，你的員工每年都需要增加工資，出去定價很重要。所以我認為你看到的是一個表現理性的市場，這確實是有益的。正如我們再次看到的，非常好的成長指標即將出現，無論是三個月、六個月還是九個月，但我們對此非常樂觀。一點點的音量將會是一個非常好的地方。

Some of the contract losses as well as John mentioned, right, some of this is just common losses that happened earlier in the year. So for example, residential, we were down 2.9% year over year in the third quarter. Most of that is going to anniversary as we exit the year. So it's not that we're necessarily expecting any sort of robust growth in residential. It's just the absence of a headwind that we've been experiencing all year long.

一些合約損失以及約翰提到的，對，其中一些只是今年早些時候發生的常見損失。以住宅為例，第三季年減了 2.9%。其中大部分將在我們結束這一年時慶祝週年紀念日。因此，我們不一定期望住宅市場出現任何強勁成長。只是我們一整年都沒有遇到逆風。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy，德意志銀行。

I wanted to go back to the 3Q versus 4Q margin trend. And it seems like I get the 60 basis points of potentially onetime benefit. But is that just taking a step back, is it just commodity prices that are coming down in the fourth quarter that reflects the change in year-over-year margins? Or was there something in the prior year comp to be aware of? Or is there any other factor?

我想回到第三季與第四季的利潤率趨勢。看起來我得到了 60 個基點的潛在一次性收益。但這只是退一步說嗎？或是上一年度的比較有什麼需要注意的嗎？還是有其他因素？

Yeah, I would say, look, as you look at last year, from a prior year comp perspective, historically, you've seen margin step down from Q3 to Q4 and last year, they were flat, right? They were equal to each other. So there's certainly a tougher comp. But as Jon mentioned earlier, we feel really good about our prospects and how we're going to finish up this year, and we'll be able to sit there and tell you how we finish out the year in February.

是的，我想說，看，正如你去年看到的那樣，從去年的比較角度來看，從歷史上看，你已經看到利潤率從第三季度下降到第四季度，而去年，它們持平，對嗎？他們彼此平等。所以肯定有更艱難的比賽。但正如喬恩之前提到的，我們對我們的前景以及我們今年將如何結束感到非常滿意，我們將能夠坐在那裡告訴你我們如何在二月結束這一年。

Understood. And then just a housekeeping question for '25, if you can. First, I just want to confirm if there's any level of rollover acquisitions that we should be keeping in mind for '25. And then like anything below the interest expense, so you have some notes that are coming up or the tax rate or any of those below-the-line type of things that we should keep in mind?

明白了。如果可以的話，然後是 25 歲的家政問題。首先，我只想確認 25 年我們是否應該記住任何級別的展期收購。然後就像利息費用以下的任何事情一樣，所以您有一些即將出現的票據或稅率或任何我們應該記住的線下類型的事情？

Yeah. From a rollover perspective, as we said earlier, about 10 to 20 basis points of rollover based on that, which is already closed. Obviously, that would increase for any deals that we closed in the fourth quarter, right? So we -- again, we can give you some of that flavor when we get back together in February.

是的。從展期的角度來看，正如我們之前所說，在此基礎上大約有10到20個基點的展期，這已經結束了。顯然，對於我們在第四季度完成的任何交易來說，這一數字都會增加，對吧？所以，當我們在二月重聚時，我們可以再次為您帶來一些這種味道。

As far as some of the other components, I mean, if you can take a look at the maturities of what's coming due next year, they are at lower rates than current rates. So we would expect some increase in overall interest expense just due to rate on the fixed rate debt, but nothing overly significant.

至於其他一些組成部分，我的意思是，如果你能看一下明年到期的到期日，它們的利率會低於當前利率。因此，我們預期整體利息支出會因固定利率債務的利率而增加，但不會太顯著。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Just to follow up to actually Tyler's question. I appreciate maybe the quantifying the benefit of some of your digital efforts of the RISE platform. But maybe you could remind us what is left in terms of rolling out some of those systems and capabilities?

只是為了跟進泰勒的問題。我很欣賞對 RISE 平台的一些數位化工作的效益進行量化。但也許您可以提醒我們，在推出其中一些系統和功能方面還剩下什麼？

I know this year is putting a lot of tablets in the cabs and making sure you're capturing some of the overhang surcharges. What's next as we think about 2025 as you phase out -- I'm sorry, phase in the next batch of capabilities?

我知道今年將在出租車中放置大量平板電腦，並確保您能夠獲得一些懸而未決的附加費。當我們考慮到 2025 年逐步淘汰時，接下來會發生什麼事——抱歉，是逐步採用下一批功能嗎？

Yeah. I mean, now that you've got the platform in place really ratcheting up, what you do from a route sequencing in order to sit there and optimize those routes and then ultimately adherence to make sure that the drivers are running the routes as designed. So again, we put this flavor out there before is that a minute across our system is worth about $5 million annually. So it's going to take a lot of seconds and minutes to add up to something meaningful, and that's what we think that the next rev of our digital platform can yield.

是的。我的意思是，既然你已經有了真正的平台，你就可以從路線排序開始，坐在那裡優化這些路線，然後最終堅持確保司機按照設計的路線行駛。再說一次，我們之前提出的這個觀點是，我們系統中的一分鐘每年價值約 500 萬美元。因此，需要花費大量的時間來累積一些有意義的東西，這就是我們認為我們的數位平台的下一個版本可以產生的結果。

And I said more broadly over the last four or five years, we've done a good job of just rapidly replacing and modernizing all of our systems without taking some big onetime CapEx event or creating any institutional risk, and so we've done it with our marketing and sales.

我更廣泛地說，在過去的四五年裡，我們在快速更換和現代化所有系統方面做得很好，沒有發生一些大型的一次性資本支出事件或造成任何機構風險，所以我們已經做到了與我們的行銷和銷售。

We've done it with HR. We've done it with procurement. We've done it now with our assets. We've done it on the operating side of our business, and we're working on under long order to cash. And there'll be another wave of benefits there as we think about still a lot of transactional work that we can automate on that front.

我們已經和 HR 一起完成了。我們已經透過採購做到了這一點。我們現在已經用我們的資產做到了。我們已經在業務的運營方面做到了這一點，我們正在根據長訂單進行現金支付。當我們考慮到仍有許多事務工作可以在這方面自動化時，將會出現另一波好處。

So those will be opportunities that won't hit necessarily in '25. We'll get some of those, but really into '26 and '27. It's a great story and then it makes the employee value proposition stronger. It provides better customer service, and we're going to be able to operate the business more efficiently.

因此，這些機會不一定會在 25 年出現。我們會得到其中一些，但真正進入'26和'27。這是一個很棒的故事，它使員工的價值主張更加強大。它提供了更好的客戶服務，我們將能夠更有效地經營業務。

Got it. It makes a lot of sense. And then maybe switching gears, just on the recycling side of your business, not the polymer centers or the like. So would you just think of your traditional birth, maybe talk about any kind of retrofitting or automation investments or anything that you might have planned? Or do you feel like you might be implemented here in 2025 for the coming years?

知道了。這很有意義。然後也許會改變方式，只是在你的業務的回收方面，而不是聚合物中心或類似的地方。那麼，您是否會只想一下您的傳統出生，也許會談論任何類型的改造或自動化投資或您可能計劃的任何事情？或者您認為您可能會在未來幾年內於 2025 年在這裡任職？

Yeah. We're doing that every year. Every year, we're putting in new optical orders and taking out manual work and getting more automation. The primary investment we make in our recycling centers is to produce a better product. Now in order to do that, you put in new capital and you end up taking on some labor, but taking out jobs is never our goal.

是的。我們每年都會這樣做。每年，我們都會投入新的光學訂單，取消手動作業並實現更多自動化。我們對回收中心的主要投資是生產更好的產品。現在為了做到這一點，你投入了新的資本，最終你需要一些勞動力，但奪走工作從來都不是我們的目標。

Our goal is to provide the -- to create the best product we can for the marketplace, which drives more circularity and drives a higher price per product on that front. And so then we do M&A, we pick up some new recycling centers. There'll be a couple over the next few years that we're going to go studs up because there's markets where we need capacity on that front. But most of our investment is the continued upgrading of the existing 75 or 77.

我們的目標是為市場提供最好的產品，從而推動更多的循環並提高每件產品的價格。然後我們進行併購，建立一些新的回收中心。在接下來的幾年裡，我們將重點放在一些市場，因為有些市場我們需要這方面的能力。但我們大部分的投資是對現有75或77的持續升級。

At this time, there appear to be no further questions. Mr. Vander Ark, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

此時，似乎沒有其他問題了。范德阿克先生，我會將電話轉回給您進行結束語。

Thank you, Nick. I want to thank the entire Republic Services team for their commitment to exceeding customer expectations and the continued growth and success of our company. Have a good evening and be safe.

謝謝你，尼克。我要感謝整個 Republic Services 團隊致力於超越客戶期望以及我們公司的持續成長和成功。祝您晚上愉快，注意安全。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連線。