Reliance Inc (RS) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, welcome to the Reliance Steel & Aluminum fourth quarter and full year 2016 earnings conference call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

Our question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

(Operator Instructions).

As a reminder this conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Brenda Miyamoto, Investor Relations for Reliance Steel and Aluminum.

Thank you.

You may begin.

Thank you Operator.

Good morning, thanks to all of you for joining our conference call to discuss our fourth quarter 2016 financial results.

I am joined by Gregg Mollins, our President and CEO, Karla Lewis, our Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, Jim Hoffman, our Executive Vice President and COO, and Bill Sales, our Executive Vice President of Operations.

A recording of this call will be posted on the Investors section of our website at Investor.rsac.com.

The press release and the information on this call may contain forward-looking statements which are based on a number of assumptions that are subject to change and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties or other factors, which may not be under the Company's control, which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement of the Company, to be materially different from the results, performance, and other expectations implied by these forward-looking statements.

These factors include but are not limited to the factors disclosed in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year-ended December 31st 2015, under the caption Risk Factors, and other reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The press release and the information on this call speak only as of today's date, and the Company disclaims any duty to update the information provided therein and herein.

I will now turn the call over to Gregg Mollins, President and CEO of Reliance.

Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us.

Operationally 2016 was a terrific year for Reliance, as our focus on maximizing growth profit margin resulted in our first-ever annual growth profit margin above 30%.

Although somewhat improved from 2015, the macro environment for our industry continued to be challenging, with overall lower demand levels, and pricing volatility, resulting in a sales decline of $737 million in 2016 compared to 2015, due mostly to lower metal pricing.

However, the expansion of our FIFO gross profit margin to 29.8% for the 2016 year, a 380-basis point improvement over 26% in 2015, added $328 million more gross profit dollars, generally offsetting the reduction to our pre-tax income from our lower sales levels.

We believe our ability to increase our gross profit margin was made possible by significant investments we have made in our value-added processing equipment, to provide our customers with superior service and quality, in accommodation with our pricing discipline and effective inventory management.

Maximizing gross profit margin has always been a priority at Reliance, but in late 2014 we placed the renewed focus on properly pricing the value we provide to our customers, as well as being selective with the orders we fulfill, which is easier to do when your inventories are in good shape.

This focus and effort produced six consecutive quarters of FIFO gross profit margin improvement, and a 600 basis point improvement from 25.1% in the fourth quarter of 2014, to a peak of 31.1% in the second quarter of 2016.

While rising metal prices supported our peak gross profit level in the fourth quarter of 2016 the fundamentals that I mentioned earlier, increased value-added processing, pricing discipline, and inventory management, have lifted our gross profit margin expectations to a new level.

Assuming no significant changes in market conditions we believe that we can sustain a reported LIFO gross profit margin within the range of 27% to 29%.

Our 2016 inventory turn rate was 4.5 times based on tons, nearing our company-wide target of 4.7 times.

We believe an efficient inventory position benefits our gross profit margin in that it enables us to focus on higher margin business.

We experienced significant metal pricing volatility throughout 2016, especially for carbon steel products.

Based on the crew published pricing index, hot rolled coil prices increased by $242 per ton in the first half of the year, declined by $151 per ton in the July to November period, and then increased by $140 per ton from December through February.

In spite of these dramatic pricing swings, we were able to manage through this volatility, maintaining our FIFO gross profit margin at 29% or better throughout 2016.

However given our product mix, we ended the year with our 2016 average selling price down 6.8% compared to 2015.

Metal pricing in 2016 was positively supported by trade cases filed by US producers on various products, along with production capacity discipline, and price increases in raw materials.

The trade cases that helped stabilize import levels and lower the spreads, as metal prices overseas have increased to a level where it is not all that advantageous to buy foreign material.

Although metal pricing weakened in the third quarter, the environment recovered as multiple price increases were announced by mills throughout the fourth quarter of 2016, and have continued into 2017.

Our average selling price in the fourth quarter of 2016 was basically flat with the third quarter, which is better than our expectation of down 1% to 3%.

As we begin 2017 there is some pressure on certain raw material costs.

However, we anticipate a positive pricing environment in the first quarter of 2017, with current pricing levels holding and possibly improving.

Customer demand levels have remained generally healthy in line with the typical seasonal slow down.

Our fourth quarter tons sold declined 5.6% from the third quarter, consistent with our expectation of down 5% to 7%.

For the full year of 2016 our same-store tons sold declined by only 2.7%, and once again out performed the MSCI industry average shipments which were down 6.2%.

We believe we have been able to continue growing our market share, through our unique diversification strategy, along with our decentralized operating structure, investments and value-added process and equipment, and focus on customer service, including small order sizes and just in time delivery.

While overall demand for metal products was not as strong as we expected when we entered 2016, customer sentiment has improved, and we anticipate improving demand levels as we move through 2017.

We believe our exposure to a broad array of products and end markets helps mitigate declines in any single market.

The Automotive and Aerospace markets in particular have continued to be very strong for us.

We have also performed well servicing the nonresidential construction market, as it continues its slow recovery.

And we are encouraged by early signs of life in the energy market.

In regard to energy, the general consensus from our customer base throughout the country is more positive today than it was 90 days ago.

We have been seeing improved quoting activity and order flows.

The order sizes have been much smaller.

As the downturn in oil prices and drilling activity began toward the end of 2014, we proactively addressed the declines in this market, through facility closures and asset write downs at certain of our energy-related businesses, and believe we are well-positioned to participated in any recovery.

With incremental spending in both infrastructure and energy on the horizon, we expect overall metals demand in the US to improve, which ultimately benefits Reliance.

Turning to M&A, in 2016 we successfully completed three acquisitions, increasing our total to 62 quality companies acquired since our 1994 IPO.

Since joining the Reliance family, each of these three acquisitions has performed in line with our expectations.

These companies fit our acquisition strategy of growth in specialty and high margin products and services, and all were immediately accretive to our earnings.

The acquisition of tubular stills strengthened our foothold in the energy end market.

Although current activity levels are lower than normal in energy, we are confident in this market's long-term strength and Tubular Steel's ability to benefit during the recovery.

Best Manufacturing increased our high margin value-added processing capabilities, and Alaska Steel broadened our geographic reach with our first entry into the Alaskan market in diverse industries, including infrastructure and energy.

Looking ahead in 2017 the acquisition pipeline remains active, and our two-pronged growth strategy remains unchanged.

We will continue to focus on organic investments, primarily in cutting edge, value-added processing equipment, that will enhance our earnings, and we are always interested in and continuously evaluating well-run companies, that complement our diversification strategy, and meet our stringent acquisition criteria.

Our strong cash flow generation has enabled us to grow both organically and through acquisitions, while simultaneously returning cash to our stockholders through quarterly dividends, and opportunistic share repurchases.

We increased our regular quarterly cash dividend to $0.45 per share effective in the first quarter of 2017, a 6% increase.

We have paid dividends for 57 consecutive years, and this is our 24th increase since our 1994 IPO.

In summary 2016 was a solid year for Reliance.

We could not be more pleased with the strong operational performance by our managers in the field.

Their strict pricing discipline, and diligent expense and inventory management, enabled Reliance to thrive despite challenging market conditions.

We look forward to 2017, which we expect will feature a renewed enthusiasm for infrastructure and equipment spending, as well as improvement in the energy market, and we believe that Reliance is very well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities.

I will now hand the call over to Jim, to comment further on our operations and market conditions.

Thanks Gregg, and good morning everyone.

First off, I would like to recognize our folks in the field that contributed to our many successes in 2016.

In particular, our enhanced gross profit margin.

I am very proud of these achievements.

Now I will comment on both pricing and demand for our carbon steel and alloy products, as well as our outlook on certain key end markets that we sell these products in to.

Bill will then address our aluminum and stainless steel products and related end markets.

Demand for automotive, which we service mainly through our toll processing operations in the US and Mexico remains very strong at current production rates.

The increased usage of aluminum in ought automotive has been the primary driver behind our growth activities.

Given our significant capital investment, we expect to further increase our volume of aluminum processed in 2017.

Surpassing our record levels obtained in 2016.

In addition to investments in processing equipment, we have been expanding our facilities to support the higher levels of automotive demand for both carbon and aluminum processing.

Our new facility in Monterey, Mexico commenced operations in July of 2016, to support automotive activity in that area.

It is already running at close to capacity, in line with our expectations.

In regards to our new US facility in Kentucky, construction remains on schedule, and we expect that facility will become operational in mid-2017.

Our Kentucky facilities will be used to support both aluminum and steel processing in that region.

We will continue to strategically add incremental capacity to drive higher levels of profitability in our toll processing operations.

Fourth quarter demand in heavy industry, which includes railcar, truck trailer, ship building, barge manufacturing, tank manufacturings, and wind and transmission towers, was comparable with levels experienced in the third quarter of 2016, though still down on a year-over-year basis.

As a reminder, heavy industry includes sales to agriculture equipment OEMs, which has been a weaker area of the market.

That said, our heavy industry exposure is mostly to small and mid-sized agricultural equipment, rather than the larger equipment which is experiencing greater weakness.

Also of note, we are experiencing improved demand trends in the road construction equipment market, due to the five-year infrastructure bill, which was passed in December of 2015.

Demand in the nonresidential construction market continues to experience steady upward growth.

We expect improvements in our tons shipped will continue in 2017 at a slow but steady pace.

The volume is still far below peak levels.

We are continuing to invest in processing equipment for the businesses of selling into nonresidential construction, to ensure that we are providing the highest possible level of service to our customers, and we are positioned to absorb the increased volumes in our existing footprint and cost structure, as this end market improves.

In addition, the prospect of adding additional spending on our domestic infrastructure bodes very well for Reliance.

Demand for energy, which is mainly oil and natural gas improved somewhat versus the prior quarter.

Though drilling activity levels remain low, rig counts continue to increase throughout the fourth quarter and into January.

In fact, for the first time in about a year rig counts in January were up year-over-year, though still far below peak levels.

As Gregg mentioned, quoting and overall activity has been on the rise, which has created a much more positive environment for our customers and our energy businesses.

These encouraging signs of new activity lead us to believe the bottom of this downturn is behind us.

Because of the proactive measures we took to right-size our energy businesses during the downturn, we feel positioned to support new activity as drilling and rig counts continue to improve.

Pricing for carbon steel products, especially hot rolled coil improved significantly in the fourth quarter of 2016, with multiple mill price increases announced throughout the quarter.

Increased raw material pricing especially scrap, as well as multiple carbon steel trade cases filed in the US throughout 2016, helped support the domestic pricing trends.

Increases were also announced on plate and long products, which represents our largest product exposure.

Although there is potential for scrap to decline, we believe increased customer demand and fewer imports in the first quarter should support current pricing levels.

Lastly for alloy products, the majority of which are sold into the energy end market, our volumes continued to decline in 2016, but given our expectation of improved demand for these products, we anticipate flat to higher pricing.

I will now hand the call over to Bill, to comment further on our nonferrous markets.

Bill.

Thanks Jim.

Good morning everyone.

Let me start by congratulating our folks in the field on an outstanding operational performance in 2016, especially in regard to our gross profit margin improvement in a difficult pricing environment.

Keep up the great work.

I will now review pricing and demand for our aluminum and stainless steel products.

I will also discuss some of the key industry trends in the markets for these products.

I will begin with Aerospace, which continues to be a very strong end market for Reliance.

We consider mill lead times, build rates, and backlogs, to be a key indicators of the health of the aerospace market.

Today lead times continue to be about 7 to 9 weeks for aluminum aerospace plate.

Build rate should improve modestly in 2017, led by single aisle planes, and we expect build rates to continue to increase through 2018 and 2019.

The backlog for orders of commercial planes remains very healthy.

Overall demand in the aerospace market continues to be solid, especially for aluminum plate where we experienced healthy volume growth in 2016.

Based on these trends, our outlook for the aerospace market remains positive.

Of note, 2017 marks the beginning of our involvement with the five-year $350 million Joint Strike Fighter program, strengthening our already strong position in the aerospace and the defense markets.

In addition to the JSF program, we are seeing increased activity from many defense customers, as spending on defense ramps up.

I am also pleased to announce that we are in the process of expanding our aerospace presence to India, through our All Metal Services subsidiary, based in the UK, that we acquired in 2014.

This expansion represents our first entry into India, and we are excited to be able to support our aerospace customers on a more global basis.

We expect the business to become operational by the end of the third quarter of 2017.

Turning now to pricing trends, the majority of the products that we sell to the aerospace market are heat treated aluminum products especially plate, as well as specialty stainless steel and titanium products.

Prices for the heat-treated aluminum plate have remained fairly stable with the prior quarter.

Common alloy aluminum conversion pricing has remained fairly stable, as did our volume levels in 2016.

Most of our common alloy aluminum products are sold to sheet metal fabricators that support a variety of end markets.

Pricing on common alloy aluminum sheet follows the price of ingot.

We expect some modest improvement as the Midwest spot price trends up slightly.

Lastly demand for our stainless steel flat products, which are primarily sold into the kitchen equipment, appliance and construction end markets remain solid.

Pricing has continued to improve as a result of that solid demand, with both the base price and surcharge increasing in January.

Thank you for your time and attention today.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Karla, to review our fourth quarter and 2016 financial results.

Karla.

Thanks Bill.

Good morning everyone.

Our net sales in the fourth quarter of 2016 were $2.1 billion, up 1.7% from the fourth quarter of 2015, with our tons sold down 1.1%, and our average selling price per ton sold up 2.7%.

Compared to the third quarter of 2016, our net sales were down 5.7%, with our tons sold down 5.6%, and pricing was flat.

The decline in tons sold compared to the third quarter was due to normal seasonal factors, including fewer shipping days as a result of holiday-related customer closures, and was in line with our guidance of down 5% to 7%.

We had expected our average selling price to decline 1% to 3% in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter.

However, due to the multiple mill price increases during the fourth quarter, our average selling price held in higher than we anticipated.

We were very pleased with our ability to sustain our strong gross profit margin throughout 2016.

Our FIFO gross profit margin of 29.0% in the fourth quarter of 2016 was up 230 basis points from 26.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Although metal pricing trends were improving in the fourth quarter of 2016, our year-end cost of inventory on hand was lower than at the end of the 2015 year, resulting in a LIFO inventory evaluation adjustment of a credit or income of $35 million for the full year of 2016, compared to income of $117 million in 2015.

At December 31st, 2016 our LIFO reserve was a debit balance of $52 million, and because our LIFO inventory costs on hand at December 31st 2016 was higher than current replacement costs, we recorded a lower of cost for market reserve of $42 million.

In our fourth quarter guidance we estimated a pre-tax LIFO inventory valuation adjustment of $15 million of income for the 2016 year, anticipating $3.8 million of income in the fourth quarter.

The actual adjustment recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016 was income of $16.2 million, resulting in $0.11 more earnings per share than we had estimated.

At this time, we anticipate that metal prices will increase in 2017 compared to our inventory costs on hand at the end of 2016.

If prices increase, we anticipate a LIFO charge or expense in 2017, which could be at least partially offset by adjustments to our lower of cost to market reserve.

As in prior years we will update our expectations quarterly, based upon our inventory costs and general metal pricing trends.

Metal pricing has a significant impact on our sales and earnings levels.

For the full year of 2016 our sales of $8.6 billion were down 7.9% from 2015.

Our average selling price for 2016 was down 6.8%, or $107 per ton from our average selling price in 2015, reducing our sales by about $624 million, solely due to the lower metal prices, and this also reduces our gross profit dollars, most of which would reduce our operating and pretax profits.

However, because we were able to increase our FIFO gross profit margin by 380 basis points to 29.8% in 2016, we earned $328 million more gross profit dollars, than we would have earned at our full year 2015 FIFO gross profit margin of 26.0%.

In other words, compared to our full year 2015 financial results, in 2016 we generated more gross profit dollars on $737 million of less sales, demonstrating the importance and positive impact of our higher gross profit margin.

Our effective income tax rate for the full year of 2016 was 28.0%, compared to 31.1% in 2015.

Our lower rate in 2016 was mainly due to the favorable resolution of certain tax matters in the first quarter of 2016.

We currently expect that our full year 2017 effective income tax rate will be approximately 31.5%.

Net income attributable to Reliance for the fourth quarter of 2016 was $61.7 million, or $0.84 per diluted share.

Our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.84 in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared to $0.87 in the fourth quarter of 2015, and $1.25 in the third quarter of 2016.

For the full year of 2016, our earnings per share were $4.16, the same as in 2015, despite our lower sales levels, resulting mainly from the lower metal pricing, which was offset by our improved gross profit margin, effective expense management, and lower tax rate.

Please refer to our earnings release issued earlier today for a reconciliation of our non-GAAP adjustments.

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow, because of our effective working capital management and strong gross profit margin, we generated $238.9 million of cash from operations during the fourth quarter, resulting in $626.5 million for the full year of 2016.

At December 31st 2016, our total debt outstanding was $1.9 billion, consistent with December 31st 2015, and our net debt to total capital ratio was 30.3%.

As December 31st 2016 we had just under $900 million available on our $1.5 billion revolving credit facility.

Our strong cash from operations enabled us to both grow the Company and return value to our stockholders.

In addition to funding the three acquisitions we completed in 2016 for a total of $348.7 million, we used our cash from operations to fund $154.9 million of capital expenditures, and to pay quarterly cash dividends totaling $120.4 million to our valued stockholders.

Looking ahead to 2017 we expect to continue executing on our balanced capital allocation strategy that includes growth through both acquisitions and organic investments, as well as stockholder return activities including payment of our increased quarterly dividend and opportunistic repurchases of our common stock.

Our 2017 capital expenditure budget is $200 million.

The majority of which will be used to support our ongoing organic growth initiatives, including opening new facilities, and increasing our value added processing capabilities.

Turning to our outlook given the positive sentiment for both metal pricing and demand in early 2017, we are optimistic in regard to both business activity levels and metal pricing.

We estimate tons sold will be up 8% to 10% in the first quarter of 2017, compared to the fourth quarter of 2016 due to normal seasonal factors, as well as our January shipment levels exceeding year ago levels.

Metal pricing continues to trend higher for almost all of the products we sell.

Therefore we expect our average selling price in the first quarter of 2017 will be up 2% to 4% from the fourth quarter of 2016.

As a result, we currently expect earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $1.25 to $1.35 for the first quarter of 2017.

In closing we continue to be very pleased with our overall financial performance, and I would like to thank all of our employees for their outstanding execution in 2016 that contributed to our strong performance.

We look forward to continued success in 2017.

That concludes our prepared remarks.

Thank you for your attention, and at this time we would like to open the call up to questions.

Operator.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions).

The first call comes from the line of Timna Tanners.

Good morning everyone.

A couple of questions.

One was on defense, since you spoke positively about it, I was curious how much of your total end market is defense?

And then can you give a little bit more clarity around your comments on the energy market uptick?

Obviously the rig count is moving up sharply higher from a really low level, but there is a lot of equipment on the ground, and pipes that still needs to get used or scrapped I suppose.

Can you give us a little bit more color on those two end markets?

It is Bill.

I will jump in on the defense question.

We have aerospace and defense really grouped together.

That represents roughly 12% of our total business.

Defense is obviously a smaller component of that, but we are seeing definitely increased activity.

This is Jim, how are you?

Hello.

On the energy question, I think that I understood you.

We are not into line pipe at all, so we wouldn't have anything to do with that.

Mostly what we do in energy is in the completion end, and maintenance and tools that are basically above the well head.

So the activity we are seeing, just simply more activity.

It is more quoting smaller orders, however more orders.

The excess of pipe laying around really doesn't bother us at all.

Well there is an excess of completions, pressure pumping equipment lying around too, so I guess it was a more general comment, so wondering if maybe you can quantify the uptick that you are anticipating from very low levels?

I am not sure how we can do that other than it feels better.

How is that?

Fair enough.

That is a tough question.

All right.

Also wanted to ask you on the cost side, what we are seeing in some of the companies we follow as conditions improve, it is tough to keep a lid on costs.

I know you have done so really well into 2016.

You talked confidently, I think Gregg said at 27% to 29% gross margins were sustainable in the future, and your average was 29.7% in 2016.

And I apologize if I am mixing FIFO versus LIFO here, but is that a conservative number now, or are there some costs that will creep back in this environment that we are missing?

I don't think it is a cost issue.

It is just our pricing discipline that we really got focused on, even more so than in the past in the 2015-2016 year has put us into that 27% to 29% range.

Is it conservative?

No, I don't think it is conservative.

I think it is actually pretty accurate.

Now that can be fluctuated with market conditions going up or down economically, or with pricing, but overall we have hesitated to answer the question whether or not it was sustainable or not.

Until we saw about eight quarters of consistent increases, until we hit a level at that 29% range.

We are much more confident today than we were two years ago, about being able to sustain that 27% to 29%.

It is really not a cost effective driven matrix.

As a reminder, our cost of sales is only our material price.

So we are not putting labor overhead up there.

Our gross profit margin is really based upon our spread between our selling price and metal cost.

So just keep that in mind.

Also our 27% and 29% range is kind of a more long-term, not a quarterly range, more of an annual range.

And it is on a LIFO basis.

So to the extent prices might be going up, we would anticipate potentially some LIFO expense to bring the margin down a bit.

That makes sense.

I guess to ask it a little more specifically then, and then I will hand off, is there any reason to expect any change in your costs going forward?

So the point being you had overhead costs rise, but not crazy into 2016.

Should we assume that it keeps pace with what we have seen on that line item?

And then you had almost 30% gross profit margins in 2016, and I understand it is a long-term view, but is there something that gives the 27% to 29% conviction into 2017 that would cause the margins to lighten up from where they have been?

I don't think there is any concern.

I do believe to say that we are going to be sustainable at 30% is probably a little bit of a reach, especially when we are talking about LIFO, because as Karla pointed out in her presentation, that if prices continue to go up, the likelihood of an expense in LIFO is likely.

If I were you, I would stick to that 27% to 29%.

I think that's a pretty good guide.

Yes, and as you know, Timna, we don't want to put out ranges that we are not confident we can stay within.

And in the second quarter of 2016, we were up to 31.1% FIFO gross profit margin, but that was in a period of rising prices, and Reliance historically, you have seen us when mills make price increase announcements, we are typically able to expand our gross profit margin, until we get the higher cost of metal in our inventory.

So we would expect that to continue.

On a quarterly basis, you might see some bumps, given our ability to take advantage of the market conditions.

That makes sense.

Thanks again.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Good morning.

Good morning, Phil.

A question on the business trends moving into February, January was at least per the MSCI data fairly strong in terms of how we started the year.

How should we think about the rest of the quarter playing out, in terms of what you're seeing on the ground?

Well, we were pleased with our results in January, and February continues to be a similar pace.

So we are happy with that.

Could things change?

Yes, they can always change.

That's the business we're in.

So far so good, and we are hopeful.

I think our guidance 125 to 135 in the quarter reflects that.

Okay.

And then on general infrastructure expectations, what are your customers telling you right now, in terms of what to expect?

What do they expect in terms of momentum and timing right now?

Obviously the market wants to get ahead of itself, and what this all could mean, but we are just trying to understand what are the real conversations taking place out there?

I think everybody is optimistic.

It is just a matter of the timing.

A lot of things are happening in Washington right now.

It is all really, it really sounds great for the steel business and Reliance, I think everybody anticipates spending.

It is just a matter of when does it come?

Does it come in 2017?

That would be great.

If you took a poll, most would say it is more into 2018, because of the length of the time to plan these projects, and what have you.

Overall it sounds very optimistic to us.

Talking to our people in the field, Phil, the customer sentiment, as well as their own is much more positive.

Have we seen projects that would support that all of a sudden the spending is actually taking place?

At this point in time, the answer is no, we have not.

We would anticipate the mills would probably see that first.

Normally in an up cycle and in the infrastructure and the nonresidential construction business, the mills do see it first, because the project tons that are given to them, and then we follow probably six months after the fact, but we are doing well.

I have to tell you this.

Our costs, we attacked our costs after 2009, we are extremely competitive on the cost side of our business.

Our companies that are in the nonresidential infrastructure business are doing extremely well, much better than our company average.

We are not complaining about the activity in non-res and infrastructure as we speak, but we anticipate it is going to get better, and to Jim's point, it is just a matter of when.

Okay.

I appreciate that.

Karla, on the Q1 range, 125 to 135, relative to that 29% FIFO gross profit margin you just did in the fourth quarter, what is the embedded expectation in Q1 for FIFO gross profit margins, and then also LIFO?

I know you just spoke of , as prices go up we would expect to see something, but what is actually embedded in the thought process?

Yes, so first off from the FIFO gross profit margin range, as I had just commented, when there are mill price increases announced, we typically get a little bump before we get the higher cost inventory in.

So our inventory cost at the end of 2016 was lower than current costs.

So I would expect that we will get a little bit of that bump, and a little bit of that expansion in Q1.

Generally in line towards the top of the range.

From a LIFO standpoint, currently our Q1 guidance has no LIFO expense in it, even though we do anticipate the prices will be higher, which would generate LIFO expense.

We still have that $42 million lower of cost or market reserve.

That theoretically if prices go up, our reserve comes down.

So any LIFO expense currently, we would expect to be offset by a lowering of that reserve.

Okay.

That is helpful.

Last question, and then I will hop here.

General industrial exposure for your Company, I think most people know Aerospace and Auto and Construction, but just in general, what is the Industrial, the pure Industrial exposure that you have?

Thanks.

The one you probably left out is heavy equipment, it is the same.

Mining has been depressed for a long period of time, Ag is a big steel consumer, the larger units are the ones that have been really depressed recently, for a lot of reasons, global demand.

But our sweet spot is in that smaller to mid range kind of equipment, and it is okay, it is not as good as we would like, it is down from where it has been, we are projected to be kind of flat for the rest of the year.

However, we have seen some increase in road construction equipment, and we believe that is because of the bill that was passed in December 2015.

People who were manufacturing equipment that tears up pavement and repaves and what have you, we have seen a very nice uptick in that type of business.

And Phil, generally we have somewhat limited visibility with where our product ends up, because our customer base, are a lot of small machine shops, fabricators, we don't really know where it is going, but at a high level, we have always kind of said that we think about one-third of our business is non-res construction, which would include infrastructure and some related items, about one-third transportation, which we would have the aerospace in there, railcar, truck/trailer, those types of things, and then one-third general manufacturing, which includes all of those things that Jim just talked about, energy would fall in there, semiconductor we usually have a decent piece.

So there is just a lot of different stuff in that broad general manufacturing, and a lot of it not big enough that we can specifically identify.

That is really good color.

Appreciate it, thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Aldo Mazzaferro, Macquarie Research, please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning.

Hey Karla, by the way those are great answers on the last two questions, I really appreciate that detail.

On the question I have is Gregg, when you commenting on the market, I noticed that you mentioned three things that were keeping prices up, the tariffs, the low output from the mills, and then the raw materials increasing.

The first two are supply related, the last one is cost inflation, I am wondering, I know you said 8% to 10% growth in demand in the quarter, that seems a little stronger than you would normal seasonal.

Can you talk about what sectors, I heard you mention energy, but is that the only area that you have seen real demand improvement, or where else could you be seeing it?

No, I think just in general, if you look across our Company, throughout North America, basically all of the regions are a little busier now.

Now we had to come off of first quarter, I mean off of fourth quarter to first quarter, normally we would be somewhere around that 7%.

Yes, we were just under 8% last year.

Last year, okay, so an 8% to 10%, we just feel as though given that we had, that we were very pleased with our January results, we thought that the momentum was going to continue, which is why we gave the guidance that we did, but it is not really, to answer your question, it is really not specific to one particular industry, okay, it is really across the board, and across the country, whether it be you are on the East Coast, the West Coast, the Mid chapters, what have you.

All of our companies are all simultaneously doing better than frankly we would have thought.

One other point Aldo, we are hitting our stride now with our new plant, automotive toll processing in Mexico, and our new facility in Kentucky should be operational mid-2017, so we are looking forward to seeing how those two investments are going to pay off for us.

We anticipate very well.

Great.

So the reason I ask, you say you are seeing February be more or less like January, so you are not seeing anything, we are hearing some chatter around that shipments might weaken a little bit in February, and sheet pricing, or hot rolled coil in the carbon market came down a little bit, but you are not seeing that as a kind of real change in trend?

No.

No, not really, I mean we would anticipate, January was a little stronger than we thought, for February to drop off a little bit, that is kind of in our guidance, and March is generally a good demand month for us.

So no, we saw the hot rolled coil prices weaken a little bit, but it wasn't anything to really concern us with.

So we are happy about the tariffs, we are happy about foreign material falling off a little bit.

We are happy to see certain Asian countries that are basically blocked out in some areas.

So all of those are positive for us.

We are just going to continue to work on that gross profit margin.

We gave our guys, I don't know all of our guys in the field, but certainly Jim and his team, for all of the efforts that they have put forth in that.

So we are seeing business as being a little bit better than we probably would have thought probably back in the fourth quarter for the first quarter.

But we are pleased at what we see, and we think it is going to continue.

All right.

Thank you very much.

I am going to get back in line for another one later.

Okay, thanks Aldo.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies, please proceed with your question.

Good morning.

I have a follow-up question on the last one, based on understanding your sense of what is happening from an apparent demand perspective from some of your end markets.

I guess your January commentary, MSCI release showed very strong volume growth in January, it would seem a bit more robust that one would expect for this time of the year.

Can I just get a sense of whether or not you sense any prebuying activity amongst your customers due to the rising price environment, and whether or not you think that you are seeing some rising inventories, at the end market consumer as a result of that?

Thank you.

I think that there is probably a little bit of that done, when you see price increases going up, and you have a pretty good understanding about what your first quarter needs are going to be, are you going to buy a little bit heavy in January, why not, okay.

So I would expect that there is some of that, but I don't think that there is enough of that to cause any concern about our customers end users being over inventoried.

There is just probably a point in time, which is not unusual, it happens all of the time, when price increases go up, some of the companies, the end users, they buy ahead of it.

But we don't see huge buys ahead of it, that is going to impact their inventories, and then future purchases.

So I think it is going to be, it is nothing unusual, it has been pretty much business as usual.

Yes, and I would say the MSCI data, a large portion of that is carbon flat roll related, and that is a smaller part of our business.

And Gregg was talking about the prebuys, I think are usually by some of your larger OEMs and bigger volume customers.

And remember at Reliance we are doing 40% of our orders, they call us today, we deliver it tomorrow.

$1.560 average order size, so I think our demand trends stay a little more consistent because of our model, than maybe some of the other companies reporting into MSCI who have a different customer base and product mix.

In particular on the carbon side, we have very little as a percent of our total revenue stream in contracts with large OEMs.

It is 95% spot, okay, so what they need tomorrow they buy today, and we supply them with that.

So if you were a large contract participant, like some service centers are, they probably saw more of that hedge than we did because of the customer base that we call on.

Okay.

That is very helpful.

I guess the second question please, just on your outlook for the US stainless market, if I remember correctly, you have been quite bullish on that particular product area since I think last summer as we approached the limitation of new duties against China.

Can you just talk a little bit about how that market has shifted over the last six months or so?

Also obviously there is a very big step-up in transaction prices in January, both base prices, and of course, alloy surcharges, are those being fully accepted in the market, or are you seeing any actual weakness in apparent demand because of that big step-up over the 1 or 2 months?

Thank you.

Yes, Seth, it is Bill.

I will address that.

We have seen I think the tariffs and the fact that China is pretty much out of the market, I think that has helped more stability on the pricing side for us.

Most of our purchases are domestic, but there definitely has been more stability on pricing, I think that is one reason that the January base price increase happened, and we think that increase is in place.

And then we think also, if you look at the fairly significant increase in the surcharge in January, we think that surcharge is in place.

Looking out what we think will happen, February the surcharge will be down a bit, we think March down slightly also, but based on what we believe will happen with nickel and chrome, maybe we will start to see in April these surcharges may start to move back up slightly.

But overall, our demand, we are pleased with our stainless demand, and our stainless business, it has been one of our higher growth areas.

Okay.

And just one follow-up there, similar to the last question, did you think that you saw any kind of prebuying back in December, ahead of that expected big uptick in the alloy surcharge?

Yes, we think that there was a little bit of that, but again, nothing that was super, real significant.

And really for the same reasons, right, that we talked about on the carbon side, with the customers that we are calling on and doing most of the business with, are not contractual related OEMs, they are small to mid-sized job shops, sheet metal fabricators, and what not.

So they are not as apt to do a larger buy, so we are guiding, if we were doing business directly with appliance makers, or kitchen equipment manufacturers, that were massive, we would probably seen more of that.

But as it turned out, yes, that was a pretty significant increase.

And those decreases that we have seen recently were very minor, very minor.

That is great, thank you very much.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions).

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Olin with Rosenblatt Securities.

Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thanks for taking my questions.

Sure, good morning Chris.

I just wanted a quick follow-up question on the stainless steel market, base prices and surcharges had been moving up I guess before the January price increase, and I was doing the math in terms of your realization for stainless, it was up about 2% year-over-year, and I was just wondering if there is a mix issue in there, or raising your pricing hasn't been higher yet?

Yes, Chris, in our stainless product group it is a pretty broad mix, so a good portion of it is more of the stainless flat rolled, where we have followed the market trends more from a pricing standpoint.

But then we have also got a lot of stainless long products in there, a lot that goes into energy, and so in that market, we haven't seen necessarily the price increases.

And even generally those products generally maintain, hold their prices a little bit more, and don't follow the general market increases, the way that the flat rolled does.

Yes, surcharge there is less significant, particularly as a percentage of the total price, and normally when we are talking surcharges, we are talking the 304 stainless product, which is the bigger volume product.

Okay.

That is fair.

Just quickly, shifting gears a little bit, when you do look at the M&A pipeline these days, I guess I am wondering if you see an opportunity to expand your footprint within Aerospace, do you think that it makes sense to look into some of the titanium high performance materials areas to get bigger on your asset base?

We think that we have a pretty good footprint right now as we speak in the Aerospace business, especially after that acquisition that we made in 2014.

So we are going to look at any and all opportunities, okay Chris.

And if something comes along with a titanium related or specialty metals related, or anything else, Aerospace, we enjoy that market, we think that it is very strong, it has got a lot of legs, we think buildings are good for many years to come.

So any opportunities that came along on Aerospace, we would look at it very, very closely.

But we are not actively going out and shaking the trees for titanium related, or what have you.

Karla.

Yes.

And we do have a titanium company that we acquired back in the early 2000s, just a small portion of our overall product mix, so as Gregg said, we will keep looking at all of the opportunities that are out there, to see what is a fit.

But in Aerospace distribution, there are limited opportunities out there.

But Chris, we like that space, we would definitely look at any opportunity there.

Great.

Thanks for your time.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Also Mazzaferro with Macquarie, please proceed with your question.

Hi, thanks for the follow-up.

On the market overall, Gregg, are you seeing any impact on the market from the new supply out of Big River Steel at this point?

No.

Other than one of our major suppliers, Zekelman Industries, seems to be enjoying, I think he bought the very first coil that ever came off of their line.

No.

We have not seen that.

Are we anticipating that we will be seeing that shortly?

Yes we are.

And we are in touch with them, Jim and his managers are on top of that.

But as of today, that we are sitting in this room, okay, we are not seeing an impact from that company.

Great.

And I guess the same would also be true for Acero Junction, probably even earlier in their life, right, than Big River?

Yes.

Yes, exactly.

And I think probably the people that will see Big River first will be the tubers.

Okay.

That is where I would go if I were them.

Okay.

One final question, in the market we are in right now with the currency of your stock being pretty high, is this the year, 2016, where we might see a big move for an acquisition?

Or do you think that the acquisition climate is changing at all?

I would have to say that really we are in the mood for a large acquisition if it fits anytime.

I mean our balance sheet, and 30.3% debt to capital is solid as a rock.

The availability of cash is certainly there.

And our appetite is there, it is just a matter of when, and if the deal that we look at is appealing.

Yes, and making sure that it is most dependant upon there being that good company out there of that size, we have only used our stock one time for an acquisition.

We are open to doing that, but generally the sellers want cash.

And I would also like to comment, Aldo, that I certainly wouldn't consider our stock price high, I would think that we are finally showing a more reasonable value, with much more room to grow.

Right.

I appreciate that very much Karla.

Thanks for all of the color.

Thanks Aldo.

Thank you.

Mr. Mollins, there are no further questions at this time.

I would like to turn the floor back to you for final remarks.

Okay.

Thank you.

On behalf of our team here at Reliance, I would like to thank all of you for participating in today's call.

I would also like to thank our loyal employees, customers, suppliers, and stockholders, for their continued support and commitment, which has helped shape Reliance into the strong company that it is today.

We look forward to a productive 2017.

Have a great day.

Thanks for joining us.

Thank you.

This concludes today's teleconference.

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

Thank you for your participation.