羅斯百貨 (ROST) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Ross Stores Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加羅斯百貨公司第四季度和 2021 財年收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。

Before we get started, on behalf of Ross Stores, I would like to note that the comments made on this call will contain forward-looking statements regarding expectations about future growth and financial results, including sales and earnings forecasts, new store openings, COVID-related costs and other matters that are based on the company's current forecast of aspects of its future business. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical performance or current expectations. Risk factors are included in today's press release and the company's fiscal 2020 Form 10-K and fiscal 2021 Form 10-Qs and 8-Ks on file with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我謹代表 Ross Stores 指出，在本次電話會議上發表的評論將包含有關對未來增長和財務結果的預期的前瞻性陳述，包括銷售和盈利預測、新店開業、COVID-基於公司當前對其未來業務各方面的預測的相關成本和其他事項。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與歷史業績或當前預期存在重大差異。風險因素包含在今天的新聞稿以及公司在 SEC 存檔的 2020 財年 10-K 表和 2021 財年 10-Qs 和 8-K 表中。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Barbara Rentler, Chief Executive Officer.

現在我想將電話轉給首席執行官 Barbara Rentler。

Good afternoon. Joining me on our call today are Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer; Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Betty Chen, Vice President, Investor Relations. We will begin our call today with a review of our fourth quarter and 2021 performance, followed by our outlook for '22 and the longer term. Afterwards, we'll be happy to respond to any questions you may have.

下午好。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是集團總裁兼首席運營官 Michael Hartshorn； Adam Orvos，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；和投資者關係副總裁 Betty Chen。我們將在今天開始我們的電話會議，回顧我們第四季度和 2021 年的業績，然後是我們對 22 年和更長期的展望。之後，我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。

As noted in today's press release, we achieved strong sales results in the fourth quarter despite the negative impact from both the surge in Omicron cases during the peak holiday selling period and continued supply chain congestion. Earnings per share for the 13 weeks ended January 29, 2022, were $1.04 on net income of $367 million. This compared to $1.28 per share on net earnings of $456 million for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2020.

正如今天的新聞稿所述，儘管受到假期銷售高峰期 Omicron 案例激增和供應鏈持續擁堵的負面影響，我們在第四季度取得了強勁的銷售業績。截至 2022 年 1 月 29 日的 13 週每股收益為 1.04 美元，淨收入為 3.67 億美元。相比之下，截至 2020 年 2 月 1 日的 13 週淨收益為每股 1.28 美元，淨收益為 4.56 億美元。

Total sales for the fourth quarter were $5 billion with comparable store sales up 9% versus the same period in 2019. For the 2021 fiscal year, earnings per share were $4.87 on net income of $1.723 billion, up from $4.60 per share on net earnings of $1.661 billion in 2019. Total sales for 2021 rose 18% to $18.9 billion with comparable store sales up 13%.

第四季度總銷售額為 50 億美元，可比商店銷售額與 2019 年同期相比增長 9%。2021 財年，每股收益為 4.87 美元，淨收益為 17.23 億美元，高於每股收益 4.60 美元，淨收益為2019 年為 16.61 億美元。2021 年的總銷售額增長 18% 至 189 億美元，同店銷售額增長 13%。

Now let's turn to additional details on our fourth quarter results. For the holiday selling period, the best performing larger merchandise areas were children's and men's, while the Midwest and Southeast were the strongest regions. Similar to Ross, dd's DISCOUNTS trends remained solid during the period. However, their profitability was also negatively impacted by cost pressures related to freight, wages and COVID.

現在讓我們來看看我們第四季度業績的更多細節。在假期銷售期間，表現最好的大宗商品區域是兒童和男裝，而中西部和東南部是最強勁的區域。與羅斯類似，dd 的折扣趨勢在此期間保持穩健。然而，他們的盈利能力也受到與運費、工資和 COVID 相關的成本壓力的負面影響。

At quarter end, total consolidated inventories were up 23% versus 2019, mainly from an increase in in-transit merchandise due to longer lead times from the industry-wide supply chain bottlenecks. Average store inventories were down slightly versus 2019, while packaway merchandise represented 40% of total inventories versus 46% 2 years ago.

季度末，綜合庫存總量較 2019 年增長 23%，主要是由於全行業供應鏈瓶頸導致交貨時間延長，導致在途商品增加。與 2019 年相比，平均商店庫存略有下降，而打包商品佔總庫存的 40%，而 2 年前為 46%。

As noted in today's release, we are pleased to report that our Board recently authorized a new 2-year program to repurchase up to $1.9 billion of our common stock through fiscal 2023. This authorization replaces the $850 million remaining under the prior buyback we announced in May of last year. A total of $650 million of common stock was repurchased under the previous program in fiscal 2021.

正如今天的新聞稿中所述，我們很高興地報告，我們的董事會最近批准了一項新的 2 年計劃，以在 2023 財年之前回購最多 19 億美元的普通股。這項授權取代了我們在之前宣布的回購中剩餘的 8.5 億美元。去年五月。根據之前的計劃，在 2021 財年共回購了 6.5 億美元的普通股。

The Board also increased our quarterly cash dividend by 9% to $0.31 per share to be payable on March 31, 2022, to stockholders of record as of March 15, 2022. The increases to our stock repurchase and dividend program reflects our ongoing commitment to enhancing stockholder value and returns as well as our confidence in the strength of our balance sheet and projected future cash flows.

董事會還將我們的季度現金股息提高了 9%，至每股 0.31 美元，將於 2022 年 3 月 31 日支付給截至 2022 年 3 月 15 日在冊的股東。我們股票回購和股息計劃的增加反映了我們持續致力於提高股東價值和回報，以及我們對資產負債表實力和預計未來現金流的信心。

Now Adam will provide further details on our fourth quarter results and additional color on our outlook for fiscal 2022.

現在，亞當將提供有關我們第四季度業績的更多詳細信息以及我們對 2022 財年展望的更多信息。

Thank you, Barbara. As previously mentioned, our comparable store sales increased 9% for the quarter. This gain was driven by growth in the size of the average basket, partially offset by a decline in transactions. Fourth quarter operating margin of 9.8% was down 350 basis points from 13.3% in 2019, mainly due to ongoing expense headwinds. Cost of goods sold increased 210 basis points due to a combination of factors. Domestic freight rose 100 basis points, and distribution costs increased 70 basis points, primarily due to the previously mentioned supply chain challenges, in addition to higher wages. Merchandise margin declined 50 basis points due to higher ocean freight costs, while buying expenses grew 20 basis points. Occupancy levered 30 basis points on higher sales volume. SG&A for the period rose 140 basis points, again, due to pressure from the holiday-related pay incentives, plus higher wages and COVID costs. Total net COVID-related expenses for the quarter were approximately 35 basis points with a higher impact to SG&A than cost of goods sold.

謝謝你，芭芭拉。如前所述，本季度我們的可比商店銷售額增長了 9%。這一增長是由平均籃子規模的增長推動的，但部分被交易量的下降所抵消。第四季度營業利潤率為 9.8%，比 2019 年的 13.3% 下降 350 個基點，主要是由於持續的費用逆風。由於多種因素，銷貨成本增加了 210 個基點。國內運費上漲 100 個基點，配送成本增加 70 個基點，這主要是由於前面提到的供應鏈挑戰以及工資上漲。由於海運成本上升，商品利潤率下降了 50 個基點，而採購費用增長了 20 個基點。由於銷量增加，入住率提高了 30 個基點。由於與假期相關的薪酬激勵措施以及更高的工資和 COVID 成本的壓力，該期間的 SG&A 再次上漲了 140 個基點。本季度與 COVID 相關的總淨支出約為 35 個基點，對 SG&A 的影響高於銷售成本。

Now let's discuss our outlook for fiscal 2022. As Barbara noted in our press release, 2022 is a difficult year to predict for numerous reasons. We are up against last year's record government stimulus and the lifting of COVID restrictions that led to unprecedented consumer demand, which fueled extraordinary sales gains in the spring of 2021. In addition, we continue to face industry-wide supply chain headwinds as well as external risks from the effects of inflation, both on consumer demand and on costs within our business. As a result, comparable store sales for the 52 weeks ending January 28, 2023, are planned to be flat to up 3% versus a 13% gain in 2021.

現在讓我們討論一下我們對 2022 財年的展望。正如芭芭拉在我們的新聞稿中指出的那樣，由於多種原因，2022 年是難以預測的一年。我們正面臨去年創紀錄的政府刺激措施和取消 COVID 限制導致前所未有的消費者需求，這推動了 2021 年春季的非凡銷售增長。此外，我們繼續面臨全行業的供應鏈逆風以及外部通貨膨脹對消費者需求和我們業務成本的影響帶來的風險。因此，截至 2023 年 1 月 28 日的 52 周可比商店銷售額計劃持平至增長 3%，而 2021 年增長 13%。

Earnings per share for 2022 are projected to be $4.71 to $5.12 compared to $4.87 in 2021. This reflects our expectation for sales and profitability to improve as we move through the year given the substantial cost increases we incurred in the fall of 2021. Our guidance assumptions for the 2022 year include total sales are forecast to grow by 2% to 6%. We plan to return to our more normal opening cadence of 100 new locations in 2022 comprised of about 75 Ross and 25 dd's DISCOUNTS. As usual, we expect to close about 10 older stores.

與 2021 年的 4.87 美元相比，預計 2022 年的每股收益為 4.71 美元至 5.12 美元。這反映了我們對銷售和盈利能力的預期，因為我們在 2021 年秋季發生的成本大幅增加，在這一年中將有所改善。我們的指導假設對於 2022 年，包括總銷售額預計將增長 2% 至 6%。我們計劃在 2022 年恢復到更正常的開放節奏，即 100 個新地點，其中包括約 75 個羅斯和 25 個 dd 的折扣。像往常一樣，我們預計將關閉大約 10 家老店。

Operating margin for the full year is planned to be in the 11.6% to 12.1% range, down slightly from 2021 due to deleveraging on lower same-store sales gains, and again, ongoing expense headwinds, especially in the first half of 2022. Net interest expense is estimated to be $70 million. Depreciation and amortization expense, inclusive of stock-based amortization, is forecast to be about $560 million for the year. The tax rate is projected to be about 24% to 25%, and diluted shares outstanding are expected to be approximately 348 million.

全年營業利潤率計劃在 11.6% 至 12.1% 範圍內，比 2021 年略有下降，原因是同店銷售收益下降導致去槓桿化，以及持續的費用逆風，尤其是在 2022 年上半年。利息費用估計為 7 000 萬美元。包括基於股票的攤銷在內的折舊和攤銷費用預計今年約為 5.6 億美元。稅率預計約為 24% 至 25%，稀釋後流通股預計約為 3.48 億股。

In addition, capital expenditures for 2022 are planned to be approximately $800 million. This outlay will fund further investments in our supply chain to support long-term growth and in technology to increase efficiencies throughout the business in order to maximize our prospects to capture profitable market share going forward.

此外，2022 年的資本支出計劃約為 8 億美元。這筆支出將資助我們對供應鏈的進一步投資，以支持長期增長和技術，以提高整個業務的效率，從而最大限度地擴大我們的前景，以獲取未來可盈利的市場份額。

Let's now turn to our guidance for the first quarter. In addition to the aforementioned stimulus benefits and strong pent-up demand early last year, we also faced larger headwinds from higher freight and wage costs early in the year. As a result, we are forecasting comparable store sales for the 13 weeks ending April 30, 2022, to be down 2% to down 4% on top of a 13% gain for the 13 weeks ended May 1, 2021. Earnings per share for the 2022 first quarter are projected to be $0.93 to $0.99 versus $1.34 in the prior year period.

現在讓我們轉向我們對第一季度的指導。除了上述的刺激措施和去年初被壓抑的強勁需求外，我們還面臨著年初運費和工資成本上漲帶來的更大阻力。因此，我們預測截至 2022 年 4 月 30 日的 13 周可比商店銷售額將在截至 2021 年 5 月 1 日的 13 週增長 13% 的基礎上下降 2% 至 4%。 2022 年第一季度預計為 0.93 至 0.99 美元，而去年同期為 1.34 美元。

The operating statement assumptions that support our first quarter guidance includes the following: Total sales are forecast to be down 2% to up 1% versus last year's first quarter. We plan to add 30 new stores, consisting of 22 Ross and 8 dd's DISCOUNTS during the period. We project first quarter operating margin to be 10.2% to 10.6% compared to 14.2% last year. The expected decline reflects the deleveraging effect from the negative same-store sales assumption as well as ongoing expense pressure from freight and wage costs early in the year. Net interest expense is estimated to be $19 million. Our tax rate is expected to be approximately 25%, and diluted shares are forecast to be about 350 million.

支持我們第一季度指導的經營報表假設包括： 與去年第一季度相比，預計總銷售額將下降 2% 至上升 1%。我們計劃在此期間新增 30 家新店，包括 22 家羅斯和 8 家 dd's DISCOUNTS。我們預計第一季度的營業利潤率為 10.2% 至 10.6%，而去年為 14.2%。預期下降反映了負面同店銷售假設的去槓桿效應以及年初運費和工資成本帶來的持續費用壓力。淨利息費用估計為 1900 萬美元。我們的稅率預計約為 25%，稀釋後的股份預計約為 3.5 億股。

Now I will turn the call back to Barbara Rentler for closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Barbara Rentler 以結束評論。

Thank you, Adam. As mentioned in our press release, given consumers' increased focus on value and convenience, we have seen favorable sales trends in both our new and in-fill market stores. As a result, along with the large number of retail closures and bankruptcies over the last several years, we now believe that Ross Dress for Less can expand to about 2,900 locations, up from our prior target of 2,400 and that dd's DISCOUNTS can eventually become a chain of approximately 700 stores versus our previous projection of 600. This represents an overall 20% increase in our forecasted potential to 3,600 stores, providing substantial runway for expansion relative to our year-end store count of 1,923 locations.

謝謝你，亞當。正如我們在新聞稿中提到的，鑑於消費者對價值和便利性的日益關注，我們在新開的和填充市場的商店中都看到了有利的銷售趨勢。因此，隨著過去幾年大量零售店倒閉和破產，我們現在認為 Ross Dress for Less 可以擴大到大約 2,900 個地點，高於我們之前的 2,400 個目標，並且 dd 的折扣最終可以成為連鎖店約 700 家，而我們之前的預測為 600 家。這意味著我們的預測潛力總體增長 20%，達到 3,600 家，相對於我們年底的 1,923 家門店數量，為擴張提供了可觀的跑道。

We operate in attractive sector of retail, and our mission continues to be delivering the best bargains possible to leverage our favorable market position. Looking at 2023 and beyond, we are targeting a return to double-digit earnings per [share] (added by the company after the call) growth driven by a combination of same-store sales gains, operating margin, improvement accelerated new store openings and our ongoing stock repurchase program.

我們在極具吸引力的零售領域開展業務，我們的使命是繼續提供最優惠的價格，以利用我們有利的市場地位。展望 2023 年及以後，我們的目標是在同店銷售增長、營業利潤率、改善加速新店開業和我們正在進行的股票回購計劃。

In closing, we especially want to thank our approximately 100,000 talented associates throughout the company whose dedication has enabled us to successfully navigate through the unprecedented challenges of the past 2 years. We believe their continued efforts will enable us to capitalize on our opportunities for future sales and earnings growth while also delivering strong returns to stockholders over the coming years.

最後，我們特別要感謝整個公司大約 100,000 名才華橫溢的員工，他們的奉獻精神使我們能夠成功應對過去 2 年前所未有的挑戰。我們相信，他們的持續努力將使我們能夠利用未來銷售和盈利增長的機會，同時在未來幾年為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

At this point, we'd like to open up the call and respond to any questions you may have.

在這一點上，我們想打開電話並回答您可能遇到的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kimberly Greenberger。

Okay. Great. I wanted to just ask about the guidance here for Q1 and if you have seen perhaps a better start to the quarter, better -- expecting deceleration as we get through the stimulus lap. I'm just wondering how you're planning the quarter.

好的。偉大的。我想在這裡詢問第一季度的指導，如果您看到本季度的開局可能更好，那就更好了——期待隨著我們通過刺激圈而減速。我只是想知道你是如何計劃這個季度的。

And then if I could just sneak one more in, I just wanted to ask Barbara about what you're seeing in terms of inventory availability in the market and whether you have been able to capitalize on perhaps some of the supply chain volatility that's causing late deliveries elsewhere.

然後，如果我可以再偷偷溜進去一次，我只是想問問芭芭拉你在市場上的庫存可用性方面看到了什麼，以及你是否能夠利用可能導致遲到的一些供應鏈波動其他地方交貨。

Kimberly, I'll start with the first quarter guidance, it's Michael Hartshorn. The first quarter last year, we saw a significant acceleration in March and April last year. As a reminder, the government stimulus hit in the -- started being disbursed to taxpayers in the third week. So that -- we're planning around that with our guidance. We had a slower start to the year last year and then had a significant acceleration as we moved through the quarter.

Kimberly，我將從第一季度的指導開始，是 Michael Hartshorn。去年第一季度，我們看到去年 3 月和 4 月顯著加速。提醒一下，政府刺激措施在第三週開始支付給納稅人。所以 - 我們正在計劃在我們的指導下解決這個問題。去年我們的開局較慢，然後隨著我們整個季度的推進而顯著加速。

And then as it pertains, Kimberly, to availability, there is definitely availability. But what I would say is it's not consistent across all merchandise departments and classifications. As goods come in from the supply chain congestion and there's issues, it's not always as broad-based in every business. But with that, yes, I would say we've been able to capitalize on the volatility in the supply chain, just given our increase in packaway, how much it's gone up in the last few months. And we see more potential opportunities in front of us from closeouts -- there's a lot of that merchandise that vendors are still moving is not necessarily even in the country.

然後，Kimberly 就可用性而言，肯定有可用性。但我要說的是，所有商品部門和分類並不一致。由於貨物來自供應鏈擁塞並且存在問題，因此它並不總是在每項業務中都具有廣泛的基礎。但是有了這個，是的，我想說我們已經能夠利用供應鏈的波動性，只是考慮到我們的包裝增加，過去幾個月它增加了多少。我們從收尾中看到了更多潛在的機會——供應商仍在運送的很多商品甚至不一定在國內。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Altschwager with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自與 Baird 的 Mark Altschwager。

So with the inflationary backdrop getting tougher, I was hoping you could give us some perspective on how your customer has responded to the inflation in the past. And as you're planning for the spring season, how are you thinking about the share gain opportunity as consumers seek value versus the risk of a near-term pullback in spending as consumers digest some of the price hikes in Essentials categories?

因此，隨著通脹背景變得更加嚴峻，我希望您能給我們一些關於您的客戶過去如何應對通脹的看法。當你為春季做計劃時，你如何看待消費者尋求價值時的份額增益機會與消費者消化必需品類別的一些價格上漲時近期支出回落的風險？

Obviously, we don't have -- it's been 40 years since the U.S. has seen this type of inflation, so we don't have a ton of experience on how the customer will react. So I'd be speculating as inflation appears at this point to be with us for a while, in general, I'd say the consumer seems to be healthy coming into the year, given higher wages and savings. But obviously, with this level of inflation throughout the economy, they're going to have to make choices how and where they spend their money, and it's highly likely the consumer will be seeking value, and that would be positive for us.

顯然，我們沒有——美國已經有 40 年沒有經歷過這種類型的通貨膨脹了，所以我們對客戶的反應沒有太多的經驗。因此，我推測，由於通脹在這一點上似乎會伴隨我們一段時間，總的來說，鑑於更高的工資和儲蓄，我會說消費者在進入這一年時似乎很健康。但顯然，在整個經濟中處於這種通脹水平的情況下，他們將不得不選擇花錢的方式和地點，消費者很可能會尋求價值，這對我們來說是積極的。

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

Great, and congrats on a nice quarter. So Barbara, maybe could you elaborate on the behavioral changes that you cited tied to value and convenience, when you saw this potentially accelerate, how you think the model is positioned? And then just on the profitability front, as you cited in 2023 and moving forward, operating margin improvement, help us to think about the drivers of that as we think about the return to double-digit earnings growth annually going forward?

太好了，恭喜你度過了一個美好的季度。那麼，芭芭拉，也許你能詳細說明一下你提到的與價值和便利相關的行為變化，當你看到這可能加速時，你認為該模型的定位如何？然後只是在盈利能力方面，正如您在 2023 年和未來所引用的那樣，營業利潤率的提高有助於我們在考慮未來每年恢復兩位數的盈利增長時思考其驅動因素？

Let me -- on the way we're thinking about this year, I'll just go through the components of expenses and then talk through the long-term model. Overall, like everyone in the U.S. economy, we're seeing cost inflation throughout the business. For us, it's most acutely felt in transportation, both domestic and ocean freight markets and also on the wage front. In those 3 areas, we have a very good line of sight on ocean freight and we know that they will remain elevated through 2022.

讓我 - 在我們今年考慮的方式上，我將只討論費用的組成部分，然後討論長期模型。總體而言，與美國經濟中的每個人一樣，我們看到整個企業的成本膨脹。對我們來說，在國內和海運市場以及工資方面的運輸中感受最為明顯。在這三個領域，我們對海運有很好的看法，我們知道到 2022 年它們將保持高位。

On the domestic freight, we don't expect the same type of headwinds on core domestic freight, although we do expect, especially with the current geopolitics, we do expect volatility in fuel-related costs. And then on wages with low unemployment rates, the overall labor market continues to be very tight, although the warehousing labor market has been the most competitive over the last year. All that said, we believe we're well positioned to start the year, especially given the wage actions we took in the back half of 2021.

在國內貨運方面，我們預計核心國內貨運不會出現相同類型的逆風，儘管我們確實預計，尤其是在當前地緣政治的情況下，我們確實預計與燃料相關的成本會出現波動。然後在低失業率的工資方面，整體勞動力市場仍然非常緊張，儘管倉儲勞動力市場在過去一年中一直是最具競爭力的。綜上所述，我們相信我們已經準備好迎接新的一年，特別是考慮到我們在 2021 年下半年採取的工資措施。

On the long-term model, given our market share opportunity with the consumers' heightened focus on value and convenience and given the fact that we're facing less brick-and-mortar competition, we believe we have a market share opportunity going forward. So looking into 2023, we're -- as you mentioned, we're targeting double-digit earnings per share growth. And the model or the formula looks very similar to what it looked like prior to the pandemic, and that's a combination of new store growth around 5%, comp sales of 3% to 4% with EBIT margin expansion at the high end of that range. And with the stock repurchase program, that adds up to the double-digit EPS growth.

在長期模式下，鑑於我們的市場份額機會以及消費者對價值和便利性的高度關注以及我們面臨的實體競爭較少的事實，我們相信我們未來擁有市場份額機會。因此，展望 2023 年，我們 - 正如您所提到的，我們的目標是實現兩位數的每股收益增長。模型或公式看起來與大流行之前的樣子非常相似，這是新店增長約 5%、銷售額增長 3% 至 4% 以及息稅前利潤率擴張處於該範圍高端的組合.通過股票回購計劃，這增加了兩位數的每股收益增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

您的下一個問題來自 Chuck Grom 與 Gordon Haskett 的對話。

Earlier today, Kohl's spoke to an improving traffic picture in the month of February and also noted that they've begun to see some trade down in certain categories, suggesting that the focus on value that you guys are suggesting has actually already started to begun. So I'm just curious if you've seen that thus far and how it bodes for the balance of the year.

今天早些時候，科爾談到 2 月份的交通狀況有所改善，並指出他們已經開始看到某些類別的交易下降，這表明你們建議的對價值的關注實際上已經開始。所以我只是好奇你到目前為止是否已經看到了這一點，以及它對今年的平衡有何預兆。

We wouldn't comment on inter-quarter trends for us. Obviously, the latest information we can talk about is in January, what we did see during the quarter, as Omicron spiked, surged right before Christmas, we did see a falloff on traffic, but the customer with their fewer trips bought more per transaction as we progressed through the remainder of the quarter.

我們不會對我們的季度間趨勢發表評論。顯然，我們可以談論的最新信息是在一月份，我們在本季度確實看到，隨著 Omicron 的飆升，聖誕節前的飆升，我們確實看到了流量的下降，但旅行次數較少的客戶每筆交易購買了更多我們在本季度的剩餘時間內取得了進展。

And the focus on value, our customer has always been focused on value. But as the world is evolving and the inflation, we actually feel we have an opportunity to gain a trade-down customer at the same time. So value has always been critical for us, and it's something the merchants are constantly watching and evaluating, especially as retails have gone up in the outside world, understanding where our price value relationship is with everything. So value is critical to us always, and it'll just be more important go forward.

以及對價值的關注，我們的客戶始終關注價值。但是隨著世界的發展和通貨膨脹，我們實際上覺得我們有機會同時獲得一個以舊換新的客戶。所以價值對我們來說一直很重要，這是商家一直在關注和評估的東西，尤其是在外部世界零售業上漲的情況下，了解我們的價格價值關係與一切的關係在哪裡。所以價值對我們來說永遠是至關重要的，而且它會更加重要。

Your next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。

Just following up on that. You had discussed last quarter some limited pricing actions in certain categories. Can you update us on the success of that and if you plan to continue to broaden that out through more of the store?

只是跟進。您在上個季度討論了某些類別的一些有限定價行為。您能否向我們介紹這方面的成功情況，以及您是否計劃通過更多商店繼續擴大這一範圍？

Sure. We have put in a strategic process where we actually go in and the buyers are constantly assessing the market to understand pricing and where there were there potentially opportunities to increase that pricing. And we started that last quarter, and it continued through this quarter. And the average price per SKU was up somewhat during the quarter. The way we're looking at it is we've had successes in many areas now compared to where we were, and we are watching it and evaluating it and I would say being cautious about moving the needle based off of where we sit in the food chain. So we're evolving and testing in certain commodities -- not even testing, buying it in certain commodities where it's been successful.

當然。我們已經建立了一個戰略流程，我們實際進入其中，買家不斷評估市場以了解定價以及哪裡有可能提高定價的機會。我們從上個季度開始，一直持續到本季度。每個 SKU 的平均價格在本季度有所上漲。我們看待它的方式是，與我們所處的位置相比，我們現在在許多領域都取得了成功，我們正在觀察和評估它，我想說的是，根據我們所處的位置對移動針頭持謹慎態度食物鏈。因此，我們正在對某些商品進行改進和測試——甚至沒有測試，在某些成功的商品中購買它。

But I think the most important thing for us to remember is that value to our customer, the real definition for her is the appropriate separation of price between ourselves and mainstream retail. So we'll continue to do that, and we'll watch things as they evolve and move on from there.

但我認為我們要記住的最重要的事情是對客戶的價值，對她的真正定義是我們與主流零售之間的價格適當分離。所以我們將繼續這樣做，我們將觀察事物的發展並從那裡繼續前進。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Binetti with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Michael Binetti。

Just to follow that a little bit, I mean, it does seem like -- I know, at first, you're fairly resistant to talking about AUR increases. But I guess, 2 quarters has gone by now, and the rest of the world is going to be taking some pretty meaningful price increases. I mean, do you see the opportunity improving versus where you were 1 and 2 quarters ago as far as the ability to take price? And I guess also, as you look through the store, are you starting to see any evidence of a new customer coming in that would point to evidence to you of a trade down?

只是稍微遵循一下，我的意思是，它看起來確實像 - 我知道，起初，你相當抗拒談論 AUR 增加。但我想，現在已經過去了 2 個季度，世界其他地區將會出現一些相當有意義的價格上漲。我的意思是，就價格承受能力而言，與 1 和 2 季度前相比，您是否看到機會有所改善？而且我想，當你瀏覽商店時，你是否開始看到任何新客戶進來的證據，這表明你有交易下降的證據？

I know during the great recession, it was a long time ago now, but I know you guys benefited from a lot of customers coming in from channels like department store and specialty apparel. Wondering if you're seeing any evidence like that of -- among the new customers coming in.

我知道在大衰退期間，那是很久以前的事了，但我知道你們從百貨商店和特色服裝等渠道的大量客戶中受益。想知道您是否在新客戶中看到任何類似的證據。

Well, Michael, first, let's talk about the pricing. So right, for the last 2 quarters, we've really been watching it. We've got a process in place. We are watching the retails move in our competition and all types of competition because the merchants are studying that and where we think we have that opportunity, and we can still offer unbelievable value to the customer, we're taking it. If we don't feel like we can offer that value to her at this point, we're not taking it.

好吧，邁克爾，首先，讓我們談談定價。沒錯，在過去的兩個季度中，我們真的一直在關注它。我們已經制定了一個流程。我們正在觀察零售業在我們的競爭和所有類型的競爭中的變化，因為商家正在研究這一點，我們認為我們在哪裡有機會，我們仍然可以為客戶提供令人難以置信的價值，我們正在接受它。如果我們現在覺得我們不能為她提供這種價值，我們就不會接受它。

What I would also say is, it's kind of hard to predict where mainstream retailers will be in the future and what they're going to do because prices can go up and go up and go up, and they might go up until they don't work at some point. And a traditional retailer can POS in any moment in time.

我還要說的是，很難預測主流零售商未來會在哪里以及他們將要做什麼，因為價格可以漲漲漲跌，而且他們可能會一直漲到不漲”在某些時候不起作用。傳統零售商可以在任何時候POS。

So we are trying to really manage our way through giving the customer great value, increasing the AUR where it's appropriate and really making sure that we balance through where the future could go in terms of potential POS-ing at some point in time. So -- there's a lot of variables, which is why we have processes in place, and we're doing it strategically. But where we have done it strategically and continue to offer value to the customer, great values, it is working.

因此，我們正試圖通過為客戶提供巨大的價值、在適當的地方增加 AUR 並真正確保我們在未來可能在某個時間點的潛在 POS 方面取得平衡，從而真正管理我們的方式。所以 - 有很多變數，這就是為什麼我們有適當的流程，我們正在戰略性地這樣做。但是，在我們戰略性地做到這一點並繼續為客戶提供價值的地方，巨大的價值，它正在發揮作用。

And in terms of understanding of the trade-down customer, I think it's kind of hard to see if you're asking from specific types of products or retails. I wouldn't say we've seen anything specific along those lines to say that we're getting a trade-down customer at this point. But with inflation continuing, one would think that, that would be a logical conclusion that over time that we could potentially pick up additional market share.

在對折價客戶的理解方面，我認為很難看出你是從特定類型的產品還是零售店詢問。我不會說我們在這些方面看到了任何具體的情況來說明我們在這一點上得到了一個折價客戶。但隨著通貨膨脹的持續，人們會認為，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會獲得額外的市場份額，這將是一個合乎邏輯的結論。

Your next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro with Retail Tracker.

您的下一個問題來自帶有零售追踪器的 Marni Shapiro。

I have just a quick follow-up on the pricing question again, I'm sorry. But are you able to take prices up at dd's? I know those prices tend to be a little bit lower and the customer a little bit more sensitive.

抱歉，我再次對定價問題進行了快速跟進。但是你能接受 dd 的價格嗎？我知道這些價格往往會低一點，而客戶會更敏感一點。

And then if you could also just talk about past this year kind of longer term, you said there's a change out there in bricks-and-mortar, fewer competitors, potentially meaning a healthier retail environment in general. So is there an opportunity for you guys to push up the food chain a little bit with some better brands and some changes to the assortment just a little bit, especially at Ross Stores?

然後，如果您還可以談談今年過去的長期情況，您說實體店發生了變化，競爭對手減少了，這可能意味著總體上更健康的零售環境。那麼你們有沒有機會通過一些更好的品牌和對分類的一些改變來稍微提升食物鏈，尤其是在羅斯商店？

Okay. So 2 things. So at dd's, we have -- the customer is absolutely price sensitive and has lower price points -- but in dd's, we're running the same process we're doing at Ross, we're studying it. The merchants are understanding it, they're understanding values because a lot of the competition for dd's is mass market, and a lot of those retails have gone up. And so we're running the same process in both companies to make sure that we have real sizes around it, we can understand it and make the right decisions. And dd's also had success in some areas where they have tried it. So I would say both companies, it's kind of -- it's an ongoing process, and it will be the same process that will continue.

好的。所以2件事。所以在 dd's，我們有 - 客戶對價格絕對敏感並且價格點更低 - 但在 dd's，我們正在運行與羅斯相同的流程，我們正在研究它。商家們正在理解它，他們正在理解價值，因為 dd's 的很多競爭都是大眾市場，而且很多零售業已經上漲。因此，我們在兩家公司都運行相同的流程，以確保我們有真正的規模，我們可以理解它並做出正確的決定。 dd 在他們嘗試過的一些領域也取得了成功。所以我想說兩家公司，這是一個 - 這是一個持續的過程，這將是一個將繼續下去的過程。

In terms of longer, you're saying an assortment strategy, could we trade up into more better brands? Look, I think our better brand strategy that we have, we're comfortable with. We continue to test and try better brands and see what the customers respond to -- so I would think we would continue to do that and then give her and offer her what she wants. But as it stands today, when it comes to brands and supply, as you know, -- it can also peak and valley, right? So especially on better brands, they can be a lot and then it can temper, they can come back up. So I think we're always looking to try to increase our brand strategy and try to offer the customer the best possible products and values that we can. And so that process would continue with over time, there were more opportunities and the customer was responding. We would continue to shift the assortment based on the customers' response.

就更長的時間而言，你說的是分類策略，我們可以換成更好的品牌嗎？看，我認為我們擁有更好的品牌戰略，我們對此感到滿意。我們繼續測試和嘗試更好的品牌，看看客戶的反應——所以我認為我們會繼續這樣做，然後給她並提供她想要的東西。但就目前而言，就品牌和供應而言，正如你所知，它也可以達到高峰和低谷，對吧？因此，尤其是在更好的品牌上，它們可以很多，然後可以回火，它們可以重新振作起來。因此，我認為我們一直在尋求嘗試增加我們的品牌戰略，並儘可能為客戶提供最好的產品和價值。所以這個過程會隨著時間的推移而繼續下去，有更多的機會，客戶也在回應。我們將繼續根據客戶的反應調整分類。

Your next question comes from the line of Beth Reed with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Beth Reed 與 Truist Securities 的對話。

I want to ask about the lower income consumer. Do you see any changes in purchasing patterns related to this specific customer cohort? Or any color on trends at Ross versus dd's?

我想問一下低收入消費者。您是否看到與此特定客戶群相關的購買模式有任何變化？或者羅斯與 dd 的趨勢有什麼不同？

I wouldn't make any call-outs, Ross versus dd's. dd's performance has been in line to Ross, it actually performed better with government stimulus earlier in the year but has maintained levels that are similar.

我不會做出任何呼籲，Ross 與 dd 的。 dd 的表現與 Ross 一致，它在今年早些時候的政府刺激政策下實際上表現更好，但保持了相似的水平。

And then -- in terms of changes, there are just so many factors that are happening with the consumer, whether it's COVID related, whether it's inflation, whether it's -- all the other things we're seeing, it would be hard to parse that specifically out on their behavior related to income factors.

然後 - 就變化而言，消費者正在發生很多因素，無論是與 COVID 相關，是否是通貨膨脹，是否 - 我們看到的所有其他事情，都很難解析即專門拿出與他們的行為相關的收入因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

您的下一個問題來自 Telsey 諮詢小組的 Dana Telsey。

As you think about the expanded opportunity for new store openings at both businesses, any adjustments in the size that you're making, how are you thinking about the regions where you're going to and expanding into and any framework this past fourth quarter of what you saw by region and how it was different by brand?

當您考慮在兩家企業開設新店的機會時，您正在對規模進行任何調整，您如何考慮您將要去的地區和擴張到的地區以及過去第四季度的任何框架您在不同地區看到了什麼，不同品牌有何不同？

On region performance, what we saw in the fourth quarter, as we said in the commentary, the top-performing regions included the Southeast and the Midwest. And then our largest regions, California, Florida and Texas. Texas was above the chain average, and California and Florida were slightly below.

關於地區表現，正如我們在評論中所說，我們在第四季度看到的表現最好的地區包括東南部和中西部。然後是我們最大的地區，加利福尼亞、佛羅里達和德克薩斯。德克薩斯州高於平均水平，加利福尼亞州和佛羅里達州略低於平均水平。

But in terms of how we're thinking about long-term store potential, where we -- what gives us confidence in that is we -- as we do every year, we look at research on the store potential. And there's a couple of factors that are important. First of all, more broadly, the consumers focus on value and convenience and then the brick-and-mortar retail closures but also the changing traffic patterns for evolving customer behavior post-COVID, our ability to cluster stores together in high-density and high-volume trade areas. We've had success in our smaller markets. And then last but not least, we have a favorable growth trends in our targeted demographics. So those are the changes that gives us confidence to increase the store count potential to 3,600 locations.

但就我們如何考慮長期商店潛力而言，我們 - 讓我們對此充滿信心的是我們 - 就像我們每年所做的那樣，我們著眼於對商店潛力的研究。還有幾個重要的因素。首先，更廣泛地說，消費者關注的是價值和便利性，然後是實體零售店的關閉，以及在 COVID 之後不斷變化的客戶行為變化的交通模式，我們將商店以高密度和高密度聚集在一起的能力- 數量貿易領域。我們在較小的市場上取得了成功。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們的目標人群有良好的增長趨勢。因此，這些變化讓我們有信心將門店數量增加到 3,600 個。

Your next question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

您的下一個問題來自於 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine。

It's about the long-term growth algorithm that you're laying out today, and it's more philosophical. Like why is now -- we're going into our third year where the comparables aren't exactly likely to live up to their name. Why is now the right time to lay out this long-term growth algorithm? And what gives you the confidence that you can put up sustainable comp growth? What kind of a macro do you need to hit your goals?

這是關於你今天提出的長期增長算法，而且更具有哲理。就像現在一樣——我們將進入第三個年頭，可比公司不太可能名副其實。為什麼現在是佈局這種長期增長算法的合適時機？是什麼讓您有信心實現可持續的薪酬增長？你需要什麼樣的宏來實現你的目標？

Well, I'd say, number one, Laura, is what we've talked about is given the customers' continued focus on value and convenience, we're in the right sector of retail -- and we think we have a large market share opportunity ahead of us. I think this is the first time, 2022 is a difficult year to predict. But -- we think we can grow market share, and we think we have the strategies in place to be able to do that.

好吧，我想說，第一，勞拉，我們談到的是考慮到客戶對價值和便利性的持續關注，我們處於正確的零售領域——我們認為我們有一個很大的市場分享我們面前的機會。我認為這是第一次，2022年是難以預測的一年。但是 - 我們認為我們可以增加市場份額，並且我們認為我們已經制定了能夠做到這一點的戰略。

If I can get a quick follow-on, Will the growth -- I think what I heard was store growth of about 5%. Would that push your CapEx in the out-years up to more like 4% or 5% of sales compared to the 3%, 3.5% you have been running historically?

如果我能快速跟進，增長會不會——我想我聽到的是大約 5% 的商店增長。與您過去一直運行的 3% 或 3.5% 相比，這會將您的資本支出在未來幾年內推高到銷售額的 4% 或 5% 左右嗎？

It's -- there's a couple of factors that go into the CapEx. Certainly, one of the most important is new store growth. But it can get choppy with our distribution center capital as we're -- as last year, we added a new distribution center that is opening early this year. So it can get a bit choppy. But going forward, I think it remains at these levels, maybe slightly up in future years based on distribution center capacity growth.

這是 - 有幾個因素會影響資本支出。當然，最重要的因素之一是新店的增長。但是我們的配送中心資本可能會像我們一樣變得不穩定 - 與去年一樣，我們增加了一個新的配送中心，該中心將於今年年初開業。所以它可能會有點波濤洶湧。但展望未來，我認為它仍保持在這些水平，根據配送中心容量的增長，未來幾年可能會略有上升。

Your next question comes from the line of John Kernan with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 John Kernan 與 Cowen 的對話。

Freight inflation and wage inflation isn't the only cost inflation out there. Product costs are higher. What's the outlook for merchandise margin this year and long term?

運費通脹和工資通脹並不是唯一的成本通脹。產品成本較高。今年和長期的商品利潤率前景如何？

Yes. John, I'll jump in on that. Consistent with the prior quarters and 2021, merchandise margin was strong. Without ocean freight, it improved every quarter versus 2019. So while we expect ocean freight costs to remain elevated through 2022, we're going to anniversary that initial spike in ocean freight costs in the fall. So as we look forward into 2022, again, without the impact of ocean freight, we feel like it's healthy and will continue to be strong and grow in 2022, obviously, dependent on sales and inventory turns but feel strong about that.

是的。約翰，我會加入的。與前幾個季度和 2021 年一致，商品利潤率強勁。在沒有海運的情況下，與 2019 年相比，每季度都有所改善。因此，儘管我們預計到 2022 年海運成本將保持高位，但我們將迎來秋季海運成本最初飆升的周年紀念日。因此，當我們再次展望 2022 年時，在沒有海運影響的情況下，我們覺得它是健康的，並且將在 2022 年繼續強勁並增長，顯然，這取決於銷售和庫存周轉，但對此感覺很強勁。

Got it. Just maybe one quick follow-up. Where are we in the wage inflation cycle at Ross stores, you seem to imply that you've taken wages up both in stores and DCs. We've heard quite a bit from some of your big-box competitors out there about where they're taking wages. Where are we in the wage inflation cycle here? Do you feel comfortable where you are now in both DCs and stores.

知道了。也許只是一個快速的跟進。我們在羅斯商店的工資膨脹週期中處於什麼位置，您似乎暗示您已經在商店和配送中心都收取了工資。我們從您的一些大型競爭對手那裡聽到了很多關於他們在哪裡拿工資的消息。我們在工資通脹週期中處於什麼位置？您現在在 DC 和商店中的位置是否感到自在。

Yes. I would say, into the year, we feel good about the changes we made last year, but we -- our approach has been to look at wages on a market-by-market basis versus a blanket approach. But I would also add there are statutory increases. There's minimum wage increases. California has large bumps year to year, and there's other large states for us that have minimum wage increases. So we're keeping up with those, and then we're making decisions on a market-by-market basis to make sure we can hire great talent across the chain.

是的。我想說，到今年，我們對去年所做的改變感覺良好，但我們 - 我們的方法是逐個市場地查看工資，而不是一攬子方法。但我還要補充一點，法定增加。有最低工資上漲。加州每年都有很大的波動，對我們來說，還有其他大州也有最低工資增長。所以我們要跟上這些，然後我們在逐個市場的基礎上做出決策，以確保我們可以在整個鏈條中聘用優秀人才。

Your next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Ike Boruchow。

Just on freight, I think you gave on a LLY basis, it was a 100 basis point headwind in Q4. Can you just say what that was year-over-year, just to give some context. And then if there's any way you could explain what's embedded. I think you said the cost should get much better as you move through next fiscal year. But what is the year-over-year headwind that you're currently anticipating, whether it's first half, full year? Anything that would be helpful would be great.

就運費而言，我認為你是在 LLY 的基礎上給出的，這是第四季度 100 個基點的逆風。你能說一下每年的情況嗎，只是為了提供一些背景信息。然後，如果有任何方法可以解釋嵌入的內容。我認為您說隨著您進入下一個財政年度，成本應該會好得多。但是，您目前預期的同比逆風是什麼，無論是上半年還是全年？任何有幫助的東西都會很棒。

Ike, we wouldn't give specifics on the deleverage. We usually would do that after the fact. But as I explained the back half of last year is when we started seeing significant increases in ocean freight as lead times extended, and we had to pay more in the spot rate market, so we're up against that. We'll be up against that next year, so it will be less of a headwind this year.

艾克，我們不會給出去槓桿化的細節。我們通常會在事後這樣做。但正如我所解釋的那樣，去年下半年，隨著交貨時間的延長，我們開始看到海運運費顯著增加，我們不得不在即期匯率市場上支付更多費用，所以我們反對這一點。明年我們將與之抗衡，因此今年的逆風將減少。

Overall, we expect, though, that ocean freights will stay elevated all the way through the year and perhaps a bit higher, but the vast headwind will be in the first half of the year versus the second half of the year, if that makes sense.

總體而言，儘管如此，我們預計海運運費將在全年保持高位，甚至可能會更高一些，但如果有意義的話，今年上半年與下半年相比將面臨巨大的逆風.

And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over back to Barbara Rentler for closing remarks.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。我現在將把電話轉回給芭芭拉·倫特勒（Barbara Rentler）做結束語。

Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Ross Stores.

感謝您今天加入我們，感謝您對羅斯商店的興趣。

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。