羅斯百貨 (ROST) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Ross Stores Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎來到 Ross Stores 第四季度和 2022 財年收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Before we get started, on behalf of Ross Stores, I would like to note that the comments made on this call will contain forward-looking statements regarding expectations about future growth and financial results, including sales and earnings forecasts, new store openings and other matters that are based on the company's current forecast of aspects of its future business. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical performance or current expectations. Risk factors are included in today's press release and the company's fiscal 2021 Form 10-K and fiscal 2022 Form 10-Qs and 8-Ks on file with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我代表 Ross Stores 想指出，在本次電話會議上發表的評論將包含有關未來增長和財務業績預期的前瞻性陳述，包括銷售和盈利預測、新店開業和其他事項這是基於公司當前對其未來業務各方面的預測。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果與歷史表現或當前預期存在重大差異。風險因素包含在今天的新聞稿和公司提交給 SEC 的 2021 財年 10-K 表格和 2022 財年 10-Q 和 8-K 表格中。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Barbara Rentler. Chief Executive Officer.

現在我想把電話轉給 Barbara Rentler。首席執行官。

Joining me on our call today are Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer; Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Connie Kao, Group Vice President, Investor Relations. We'll begin our call today with a review of our fourth quarter and 2022 performance, followed by our outlook for 2023. Afterwards, we'll be happy to respond to any questions you may have.

集團總裁兼首席運營官 Michael Hartshorn 今天和我一起參加我們的電話會議； Adam Orvos，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；以及負責投資者關係的集團副總裁 Connie Kao。我們將在今天開始我們的電話會議，回顧我們第四季度和 2022 年的業績，然後是我們對 2023 年的展望。之後，我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。

As noted in today's press release, during a very competitive holiday season, our fourth quarter sales and earnings results exceeded our guidance due to customers' positive response to our improved assortment and stronger value offerings. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.31 on net income of $447 million. These results compare to earnings per share of $1.04 on net earnings of $367 million for the 13 weeks ended January 29, 2022. Sales for the fourth quarter of 2022 were $5.2 billion with comparable store sales up 1% on top of a 9% increase for the same period in 2021.

正如今天的新聞稿所述，在競爭非常激烈的假期期間，由於客戶對我們改進的產品種類和更強大的價值產品的積極響應，我們第四季度的銷售和盈利結果超出了我們的預期。第四季度每股收益為 1.31 美元，淨收入為 4.47 億美元。與這些結果相比，截至 2022 年 1 月 29 日的 13 週每股收益為 1.04 美元，淨收益為 3.67 億美元。2022 年第四季度的銷售額為 52 億美元，可比店面銷售額增長 1%，而去年同期增長 9% 2021年同期。

For the 2022 fiscal year, earnings per share were $4.38 on net income of $1.5 billion compared to $4.87 per share on net earnings of $1.7 billion in 2021. Sales for 2022 were $18.7 billion, with comparable store sales down 4% versus a robust 13% increase in the prior year. Fourth quarter operating margin was 10.7% compared to 9.8% in 2021. This improvement was mainly driven by lower freight and incentive costs that were partially offset by unfavorable timing of packaway-related expenses.

2022 財年每股收益為 4.38 美元，淨收益為 15 億美元，而 2021 財年每股收益為 4.87 美元，淨收益為 17 億美元。2022 年銷售額為 187 億美元，可比店面銷售額下降 4%，而強勁的 13%較上年增加。第四季度營業利潤率為 10.7%，而 2021 年為 9.8%。這一改善主要是由於較低的運費和激勵成本，但部分被打包相關費用的不利時機所抵消。

Now let's turn to additional details on our fourth quarter results. For the holiday selling season, shoes was the best-performing merchandise area, while Florida was the strongest region. Similar to Ross, dd's DISCOUNTS sales trends improved compared to the prior quarter but continue to trail Ross' results primarily due to ongoing inflationary pressures that are continuing to have a larger impact on dd's lower-income customers. Inventory levels moderated significantly from the first half of 2022 with consolidated inventories down 11% versus last year. Average store inventories during the quarter were down slightly compared to 2021 holiday period, while packaway merchandise represented 40% of total inventories similar to last year. We also believe we are well positioned to take advantage of the numerous buying opportunities in the marketplace.

現在讓我們來看看我們第四季度業績的更多細節。在假日銷售季，鞋類是表現最好的商品區，而佛羅里達州是最強勁的地區。與 Ross 類似，dd 的 DISCOUNTS 銷售趨勢與上一季度相比有所改善，但繼續落後於 Ross 的結果，這主要是由於持續的通脹壓力繼續對 dd 的低收入客戶產生更大的影響。與 2022 年上半年相比，庫存水平顯著下降，綜合庫存比去年下降 11%。與 2021 年假期相比，本季度平均商店庫存略有下降，而打包商品佔總庫存的 40% 與去年相似。我們還相信，我們已做好充分準備，可以利用市場上眾多的購買機會。

As noted in today's release, the company repurchased a total of 2.1 million and 10.3 million shares of common stock, respectively, for an aggregate purchase price of $231 million in the quarter and $950 million for the fiscal year. These purchases were made pursuant to the 2-year $1.9 billion program announced in March of 2022. We expect to complete the $950 million remaining under this authorization in fiscal 2023. Our Board also recently increased our quarterly cash dividend by 8% and to $0.335 per share to be payable on March 31, 2023, to stockholders of record as of March 14, 2023. Our stock repurchase and increased dividend program reflects our continued commitment to enhancing stockholder value and returns as well as our confidence in the strength of our balance sheet and projected future cash flows.

如今天的新聞稿所述，公司分別回購了 210 萬股和 1030 萬股普通股，本季度的總購買價格為 2.31 億美元，本財年的總購買價格為 9.5 億美元。這些購買是根據 2022 年 3 月宣布的為期 2 年的 19 億美元計劃進行的。我們預計將在 2023 財年完成該授權下剩餘的 9.5 億美元。我們的董事會最近還將季度現金股息提高了 8%，達到每股 0.335 美元。股份將於 2023 年 3 月 31 日支付給截至 2023 年 3 月 14 日在冊的股東。我們的股票回購和增加股息計劃反映了我們對提高股東價值和回報的持續承諾，以及我們對資產負債表實力的信心以及預計的未來現金流量。

Now Adam will provide further details on our fourth quarter results and additional color on our outlook for fiscal 2023.

現在，亞當將提供有關我們第四季度業績的更多詳細信息，以及我們對 2023 財年展望的更多顏色。

Thank you, Barbara. As previously mentioned, comparable store sales rose 1% for the quarter on top of a 9% gain in the prior year. This slight increase was due to growth in the size of the average basket as traffic was relatively flat compared to last year. As Barbara discussed earlier, fourth quarter operating margin of 10.7% was up 90 basis points from 9.8% in 2021. Cost of goods sold grew 15 basis points versus last year due to a combination of factors. Distribution expenses rose 90 basis points primarily due to timing of packaway-related costs and deleverage from the opening of our Houston distribution center earlier in the year, while domestic freight and occupancy delevered by 20 and 5 basis points, respectively. Partially offsetting these costs with higher merchandise margin, which grew by 15 basis points as the benefit from lower ocean freight costs more than offset somewhat higher markdowns. Buying expenses also improved by 85 basis points due to lower incentive compensation. SG&A for the period levered by 105 basis points, again, primarily due to lower incentive expense.

謝謝你，芭芭拉。如前所述，本季度可比店面銷售額在去年同期增長 9% 的基礎上增長了 1%。這一小幅增長是由於平均購物籃規模的增長，因為與去年相比，交通量相對平穩。正如芭芭拉早些時候所討論的那樣，第四季度的營業利潤率為 10.7%，比 2021 年的 9.8% 上升了 90 個基點。由於多種因素的綜合影響，銷售成本比去年同期增長了 15 個基點。分銷費用增加了 90 個基點，這主要是由於包裝相關成本的時間安排和今年早些時候休斯敦配送中心開業以來的去槓桿化，而國內運費和入住率分別下降了 20 和 5 個基點。較高的商品利潤率部分抵消了這些成本，該利潤率增長了 15 個基點，因為較低的海運成本帶來的好處足以抵消較高的降價幅度。由於較低的激勵薪酬，採購費用也提高了 85 個基點。該期間的 SG&A 再次槓桿化 105 個基點，這主要是由於較低的激勵費用。

Now let's discuss our outlook for fiscal 2023. As Barbara noted in our press release, the macroeconomic and geopolitical environments remain highly uncertain. As a result, we believe it is prudent to remain conservative when planning our business. While we hope to do better for the 52 weeks ending January 27, 2024, we are planning comparable store sales to be relatively flat. If sales perform in line with this plan, we expect earnings per share for 2023 to be in the range of $4.65 to $4.95 compared to $4.38 in fiscal 2022. It is important to note that fiscal 2023 is a 53-week year. Incorporated in this guidance range is an estimated benefit to earnings per share of approximately $0.15 from the extra week.

現在讓我們討論一下我們對 2023 財年的展望。正如芭芭拉在我們的新聞稿中指出的那樣，宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境仍然高度不確定。因此，我們認為在規劃我們的業務時保持保守是謹慎的做法。雖然我們希望在截至 2024 年 1 月 27 日的 52 週內做得更好，但我們計劃可比店面銷售額相對持平。如果銷售業績符合該計劃，我們預計 2023 年的每股收益將在 4.65 美元至 4.95 美元之間，而 2022 財年為 4.38 美元。需要注意的是，2023 財年是 53 週的一年。納入該指導範圍的是額外一周對每股收益的估計收益約 0.15 美元。

Our guidance assumptions for the 2023 year include the following: Total sales are planned to grow by 2% to 5% for the 53 weeks ending February 3, 2024. Comparable store sales for the 52 weeks ending January 27, 2024, are planned to be relatively flat. Based on these sales plans, Operating margin for the full year is expected to be in the range of 10.3% to 10.7%. This reflects the resetting of the baseline for incentive compensation, higher wages, the deleveraging effect on flattish same-store sales and lower freight costs. Also incorporated in this operating margin guidance is an estimated benefit of about 20 basis points from the 53rd week.

我們對 2023 年的指導假設包括以下內容：截至 2024 年 2 月 3 日的 53 週內，總銷售額計劃增長 2% 至 5%。截至 2024 年 1 月 27 日的 52 週內，可比店面銷售額計劃為比較平坦。根據這些銷售計劃，全年營業利潤率預計在 10.3% 至 10.7% 之間。這反映了激勵補償基線的重置、更高的工資、對持平的同店銷售的去槓桿化效應以及更低的運費。該營業利潤率指南中還包含了從第 53 週開始的約 20 個基點的估計收益。

For 2023, we expect to open approximately 100 new locations comprised of about 75 Ross and 25 dd's DISCOUNTS. As usual, these openings do not include our plans to close or relocate about 10 older stores. Net interest income is estimated to be $115 million. Depreciation and amortization expense inclusive of stock-based amortization is forecast to be about $570 million for the year. The tax rate is projected to be about 24% to 25% and diluted shares outstanding are expected to be approximately $339 million. In addition, capital expenditures for 2023 are planned to be approximately $810 million as we make further investments in our stores, supply chain and merchant processes to support our long-term growth and to increase efficiencies throughout the business.

到 2023 年，我們預計將開設大約 100 家新店，其中包括約 75 家 Ross 和 25 家 dd's DISCOUNTS。與往常一樣，這些開業不包括我們關閉或搬遷大約 10 家老店的計劃。淨利息收入估計為 1.15 億美元。包括基於股票的攤銷在內的折舊和攤銷費用預計今年約為 5.7 億美元。稅率預計約為 24% 至 25%，稀釋後的流通股預計約為 3.39 億美元。此外，2023 年的資本支出計劃約為 8.1 億美元，因為我們將進一步投資我們的商店、供應鍊和商家流程，以支持我們的長期增長並提高整個業務的效率。

Let's turn now to our guidance for the first quarter. Elevated inflation continues to impact our low to moderate income customer. As such, we are also planning comparable store sales to be relatively flat for the 13 weeks ending April 29, 2023. This compares to a 7% decrease and a 13% gain in the first quarter of 2022 and 2021, respectively. If sales perform in line with this plan, we expect earnings per share for the first quarter of 2023 to be $0.99 to $1.05 versus $0.97 last year. The operating statement assumptions that support our first quarter guidance include the following: Total sales are planned to be up 1% to 4% versus last year's first quarter. We would then expect first quarter operating margin to be 9.6% to 9.9% compared to 10.8% last year. The expected decline reflects the deleveraging effect of same-store sales perform in line with our plan, unfavorable timing of packaway-related costs and higher wages. Further, merchandise margin is forecast to benefit from lower freight costs. We plan to add 19 new stores consisting of 11 Ross and 8 dd's DISCOUNTS during the period. Net interest income is estimated to be $28 million. Our tax rate is expected to be approximately 24% to 25% and diluted shares are forecast to be about $341 million.

現在讓我們談談我們對第一季度的指導。高通脹繼續影響我們的中低收入客戶。因此，我們還計劃在截至 2023 年 4 月 29 日的 13 週內可比店面銷售額相對持平。相比之下，2022 年第一季度和 2021 年第一季度分別下降 7% 和增長 13%。如果銷售業績符合該計劃，我們預計 2023 年第一季度每股收益為 0.99 美元至 1.05 美元，而去年同期為 0.97 美元。支持我們第一季度指引的運營報表假設包括以下內容： 與去年第一季度相比，總銷售額計劃增長 1% 至 4%。我們預計第一季度營業利潤率為 9.6% 至 9.9%，而去年為 10.8%。預期下降反映了同店銷售符合我們計劃的去槓桿化效應、包裝相關成本的不利時機以及更高的工資。此外，預計商品利潤率將受益於較低的運費。我們計劃在此期間增加 19 家新店，其中包括 11 家 Ross 和 8 家 dd's DISCOUNTS。淨利息收入估計為 2800 萬美元。我們的稅率預計約為 24% 至 25%，攤薄後的股份預計約為 3.41 億美元。

Now I will turn the call back to Barbara Rentler for closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回 Barbara Rentler 以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, Adam. To sum up, over the past 3 years, we have faced a wide range of unprecedented challenges from the COVID pandemic, supply chain disruptions as well as ongoing inflationary headwinds. These factors have not only negatively impacted our own business, but also our customers' household budgets, their discretionary income and their shopping behaviors. As a result, our shoppers today are seeking even stronger values when visiting our stores. In response, our merchants are fine-tuning our assortments with an increased focus on delivering the most competitive bargains available while continuing to adjust our product mix based on our customers' evolving preferences. Looking ahead, we have significantly increased our focus on strictly controlling inventory and operating expenses throughout the company. We strongly believe that these measures will enable us to maximize our potential for both sales and profit growth in 2023 and beyond.

謝謝你，亞當。總而言之，在過去 3 年中，我們面臨著廣泛的前所未有的挑戰，包括 COVID 大流行、供應鏈中斷以及持續的通脹逆風。這些因素不僅對我們自己的業務產生了負面影響，而且對我們客戶的家庭預算、他們的可支配收入和他們的購物行為也產生了負面影響。因此，如今我們的購物者在訪問我們的商店時正在尋求更強大的價值。作為回應，我們的商家正在微調我們的產品組合，更加註重提供最具競爭力的特價商品，同時繼續根據客戶不斷變化的偏好調整我們的產品組合。展望未來，我們已經大大加強了對嚴格控制整個公司的庫存和運營費用的關注。我們堅信，這些措施將使我們能夠在 2023 年及以後最大限度地發揮銷售和利潤增長的潛力。

At this point, we'd like to open up the call and respond to any questions you may have.

在這一點上，我們想打開電話並回答您可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。

I wanted to ask about freight, both of the components within gross margin. How much recovery do you have baked into your guidance for this year versus pre-COVID levels? And then how much opportunity remains for the next year and the year after?

我想問一下運費，這兩個組成部分都在毛利率之內。與 COVID 之前的水平相比，您今年的指導中包含了多少恢復？那麼明年和後年還有多少機會呢？

Yes. So Lorraine, this is Adam. Thanks for the question. related to merchandise margin, Q1 and fiscal 2023 will clearly benefit from lower ocean freight costs as we anniversary the significantly higher cost from last year. While these costs will drop, they'll likely still be higher than pre-pandemic levels in the short term. But on the ocean side, they've clearly dropped dramatically and we'll harvest a significant portion of the increase we've faced over the last 3 years. On the domestic side, because of wages -- elevated wages and still higher fuel cost than pre-pandemic, we'll harvest back some of the domestic freight, but not as tangible in 2023 as it will be on the ocean side.

是的。洛林，這是亞當。謝謝你的問題。與商品利潤率相關，第一季度和 2023 財年將明顯受益於較低的海運成本，因為我們紀念了去年顯著增加的成本。雖然這些成本會下降，但在短期內它們可能仍會高於大流行前的水平。但在海洋一側，它們明顯急劇下降，我們將收穫過去 3 年所面臨的增長的很大一部分。在國內方面，由於工資——工資上漲和燃料成本仍然高於大流行前，我們將收回部分國內運費，但到 2023 年不會像在海運方面那樣有形。

So you'd say some opportunity will remain for fiscal '24?

所以你會說 24 財年還會有一些機會？

Probably not prudent to go that far ahead, but it clearly will be a tailwind on both sides for us in 2023. And depending on how much they move in 2023. That I'll kind of see what's left for 2024.

走那麼遠可能並不謹慎，但顯然這將在 2023 年對我們雙方都有利。這取決於他們在 2023 年移動了多少。我會看看 2024 年還剩下什麼。

And the next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

Congrats on a nice quarter. So Barbara, on fourth quarter same-store sales inflecting back to positive territory, maybe can you just speak to the cadence of traffic that you saw during the quarter? And then on the outlook for flat comps in both 1Q and for the year relative to historically a 1% to 2% starting plan. Have you seen a material change in customer behavior post-holiday? Or is this more just taking a prudent stance given the volatility that you cited?

祝賀一個不錯的季度。所以芭芭拉，關於第四季度同店銷售額回升到正值，也許你能談談你在本季度看到的流量節奏嗎？然後是相對於歷史上 1% 到 2% 的起始計劃，第一季度和全年的扁平化前景。您是否看到節後客戶行為發生重大變化？還是考慮到您提到的波動性，這只是採取謹慎的立場？

Matthew, it's Michael Hartshorn. On the guidance for the first quarter, as we said in our commentary, with the lasting inflation and highly uncertain macro economy ahead of us, we firmly believe it's prudent to be conservative in planning the business. Internally, this puts us in a chase mode to start the year, both from an inventory open-to-buy perspective and in managing the underlying cost in the business. It's a playbook that we're familiar with. We know well and believe it will allow us to, as we said in the commentary, maximize both the top line and the bottom line in an uncertain environment, and we'll have to see how it plays out for the year. In terms of traffic data, as we said in the commentary, traffic was relatively flat in the quarter, and that was relatively consistent across the fourth quarter.

馬修，我是邁克爾·哈茨霍恩。關於第一季度的指引，正如我們在評論中所說，由於我們面臨著持續的通貨膨脹和高度不確定的宏觀經濟，我們堅信在規劃業務時保持謹慎是謹慎的。在內部，這使我們在今年開始時處於追逐模式，無論是從庫存開放購買的角度還是在管理業務的基礎成本方面。這是我們熟悉的劇本。正如我們在評論中所說，我們非常了解並相信這將使我們能夠在不確定的環境中最大化頂線和底線，我們將不得不看看它在今年的表現如何。在流量數據方面，正如我們在評論中所說，本季度的流量相對平穩，並且整個第四季度都相對一致。

Great. And then maybe just a follow-up on gross margin. So if we exclude the freight recovery, how are you thinking about underlying merchandise margins within this year's guide? Meaning, is there any impact we need to think about with some of the changes in mix that you cited? Maybe how best to think about price. I mean, what I'm really trying to get at is beyond this year, do you think there's any structural underlying change to double-digit earnings growth in this model if we can get back to that 3% to 4% comp algorithm?

偉大的。然後可能只是毛利率的後續行動。因此，如果我們排除運費回升，您如何看待今年指南中的基礎商品利潤率？意思是，我們需要考慮您引用的一些組合變化有什麼影響嗎？也許如何最好地考慮價格。我的意思是，我真正想要了解的是今年以後，如果我們能回到 3% 到 4% 的補償算法，你認為這種模式的兩位數收益增長有任何結構性的潛在變化嗎？

Let me talk a little bit about the long-term operating model. We certainly, with ocean freights coming down, we'd expect to see a big benefit this year. Longer term, the margin improvements will be highly dependent on sustained strong sales growth, but also, as we mentioned, to a large extent, the persistence and the inflationary costs in the business. We, again, expect to see ocean freight costs preceding this year, but they still remain above pre-pandemic levels and a number of transportation lanes. So that could be a benefit beyond 2023.

先說一下長期的運營模式。我們當然，隨著海運費的下降，我們預計今年會看到很大的好處。從長遠來看，利潤率的提高將在很大程度上取決於持續強勁的銷售增長，而且正如我們所提到的，在很大程度上取決於業務的持久性和通貨膨脹成本。我們再次預計在今年之前會看到海運成本，但它們仍高於大流行前的水平和一些運輸通道。所以這可能是 2023 年以後的好處。

We also expect to see lower domestic freight rates this year, and that's embedded in our guidance. But we see these pressures easing over a longer horizon and is somewhat dependent on fuel costs. Wage costs have risen, but are growing at a slower pace than they did during the pandemic. We expect from a wage perspective that it will be an ongoing pressure, but we are finding ways to be more efficient in the business that's offsetting some of those costs. So all of those taken together, we believe we can grow our EBIT margins and profitability over time, but it will be very important to drive top line sales growth in that equation.

我們還預計今年國內運費會下降，這已包含在我們的指導中。但我們認為這些壓力在較長時期內會有所緩解，並且在一定程度上取決於燃料成本。工資成本有所上升，但增長速度低於大流行期間。從工資的角度來看，我們預計這將是一個持續的壓力，但我們正在尋找提高業務效率的方法，以抵消部分成本。因此，所有這些加在一起，我們相信我們可以隨著時間的推移增加我們的息稅前利潤率和盈利能力，但在這個等式中推動頂線銷售增長將非常重要。

And the next question comes from the line of Mark Altschwager with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Mark Altschwager 與 Baird 的對話。

In terms of the competitive backdrop, some of the bigger general merchandise retailers look leaner on inventory, especially apparel and discretionary categories heading into the spring. Just curious how that's incorporating into your thinking on comps and potential for some recapture of market share cycling last year?

就競爭背景而言，一些較大的日用商品零售商看起來庫存較少，尤其是進入春季的服裝和非必需品類別。只是好奇這如何融入你對 comps 的思考以及去年市場份額循環的一些重新奪回的可能性？

Sure. I think -- then pulling back on general merchandise potentially gives sense gives us an opportunity to grow those businesses since it's such a big part of our business. But I really think regaining, capturing market share, however we want to say that, it really depends on driving sales, and we think that the best way to drive sales is for us to continue to focus on value for our customer. I mean that's really what helped us perform in the fourth quarter is really making sure that we're delivering the best brand of organ possible throughout the entire store. And that really is our focus. That compounded with the fact that there's a lot of merchandise in the marketplace, which will enable us to do that. I think that's really what will help us gain back that market share, whether it's coming from a big box or it's coming from other parts of retail departmental stores whatever it is. I think that's really the key for our success go forward to drive top line sales.

當然。我認為 - 然後撤回一般商品可能會給我們帶來發展這些業務的機會，因為它是我們業務的重要組成部分。但我真的認為重新獲得市場份額，但我們想說的是，這實際上取決於推動銷售，我們認為推動銷售的最佳方式是我們繼續關注客戶的價值。我的意思是，真正幫助我們在第四季度表現的真正原因是確保我們在整個商店提供最好的風琴品牌。這確實是我們的重點。再加上市場上有很多商品，這將使我們能夠做到這一點。我認為這真的會幫助我們重新奪回市場份額，無論它來自大盒子還是來自零售百貨商店的其他部分，無論它是什麼。我認為這真的是我們成功推動頂線銷售的關鍵。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Paul Lejuez。

Are you seeing any signs of a trade-down customers showing up in your stores? I know you said transactions traffic was flat, but curious if the customer base is changing at all or maybe you're seeing some higher income folks show up, maybe some of the lower income folks shop less. I'm also curious how you're thinking about the drivers of comp in F '23 from a traffic versus ticket perspective.

您是否看到任何跡象表明您的商店中出現了降價顧客？我知道你說過交易流量持平，但很好奇客戶群是否發生了變化，或者你是否看到一些高收入的人出現了，也許一些低收入的人購物減少了。我也很好奇您如何從流量與票務的角度考慮 F '23 中的 comp 驅動程序。

Paul, on the trade-down customer, there isn't what we see in our data, a material shift in spending trends across the different income demographics. So at this point for us, we don't see any evidence that the trade down -- that there is the trade down customers impacting our business. On how we're thinking about the business going forward. We don't typically plan the business based on the components of the transaction. As Barbara said, our focus is on value and off-price value will lead to a better traffic, it will lead to a higher basket if you offer great deals to the customer, and that's how we're thinking about the business going forward.

保羅，關於降價客戶，我們在數據中沒有看到，不同收入人群的支出趨勢發生了重大轉變。所以在這一點上對我們來說，我們沒有看到任何證據表明貿易下降 - 貿易下降客戶影響我們的業務。關於我們如何考慮未來的業務。我們通常不會根據交易的組成部分來規劃業務。正如芭芭拉所說，我們的重點是價值，而低價價值將帶來更好的流量，如果您向客戶提供超值優惠，它將帶來更高的購物籃，這就是我們對未來業務的思考方式。

Got it. And can you just share what your home versus apparel comps were in 4Q? Also curious about California, Florida, Texas performance.

知道了。你能分享一下你在第四季度的家居與服裝比較嗎？也對加利福尼亞、佛羅里達、德克薩斯的表現感到好奇。

Sure. The home sales were slightly above the chain average. And then overall, apparel, non-apparel performance was relatively similar. And the thing that part of what's really drove home is that Home has the highest penetration of gifting and that part of our business performed well.

當然。房屋銷售略高於連鎖平均水平。然後總體來說，服裝、非服裝表現比較相似。真正推動回家的部分是 Home 的禮品滲透率最高，而且我們業務的這一部分錶現良好。

And Paul, on the geography side, Florida, as we mentioned, it was the strongest market. Regarding our other large markets, California performed slightly above the chain average and Texas tracked in line with the change average. With all that said, we did not see a lot of deviation in the numbers by geographic area.

保羅，在地理方面，正如我們提到的，佛羅里達州是最強勁的市場。關於我們的其他大型市場，加利福尼亞州的表現略高於連鎖平均水平，德克薩斯州的表現與變化平均水平一致。話雖如此，我們並未發現按地理區域劃分的數字有很大差異。

The next question is from the line of Michael Binetti with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Michael Binetti。

Could you unpack how you're thinking about the merch margin, excluding the freight here for the year, I guess, the product margin. Just trying to think -- just trying to marry up what you guys are seeing on inventory buys and how pricing can lead us to the product margin this year? And then I guess, pretty simple one, Michael, when you guys think about the puts and takes on -- or Michael or Adam, I should say, puts and takes on the margins and the buckets that you pointed to resetting the incentive comp, the higher wages, the flat same-store sales impact and the lower freight cost. Can you speak to how the upside would flow through on 1 point of comp this year? I know you always give us some -- the framework of about 15 basis points, I think, for memory, what's better in the composition of the model this year? What's worse than normal on a 1 point of upside in the comp?

你能解釋一下你是如何考慮商品利潤率的嗎，不包括今年的運費，我猜，產品利潤率。只是想一想——只是想把你們在庫存購買上看到的東西結合起來，以及定價如何使我們今年獲得產品利潤率？然後我想，非常簡單的一個，邁克爾，當你們考慮看跌期權並承擔 - 或者邁克爾或亞當，我應該說，看跌期權並承擔您指出的利潤和桶，以重置激勵補償，工資越高，同店銷售影響持平，運費成本越低。你能談談今年 1 點 comp 的上行空間如何嗎？我知道你總是給我們一些——大約 15 個基點的框架，我想，為了記憶，今年模型的組成有什麼更好的？在 comp 上升 1 點的情況下，有什麼比正常情況更糟糕的？

Michael, you got it exactly right. 1 point of comp is approximately 10 to 15 basis points of EBIT margin expansion. So that hasn't changed.

邁克爾，你完全正確。 1 個補償點大約是 EBIT 利潤率擴張的 10 到 15 個基點。所以這沒有改變。

And Michael, I'll jump in. So like on operating margin, the moving parts in 2023. So first of all, we're planning the flat comp, which will cause some amount of deleverage. As you mentioned, we have to reset our incentive cost at target levels. So 2022 was clearly an underperforming year for us, and that was on top of a 2021 where we significantly overperformed our plan. So for 2023, we will reset that baseline at target levels. Michael mentioned earlier, we've seen wage increases, both in our stores and our distribution centers. And while that's easing we've not been able to fully mitigate those increases within the stores by driving other efficiencies. And then my earlier comments on freight, we expect good news on both sides but more dramatic improvement on the ocean side.

邁克爾，我會加入。所以就像營業利潤率一樣，2023 年的移動部分。所以首先，我們正在計劃扁平化，這將導致一定程度的去槓桿化。正如您提到的，我們必須將我們的激勵成本重置為目標水平。因此，2022 年對我們來說顯然是表現不佳的一年，而 2021 年我們的表現明顯超出了我們的計劃。因此，對於 2023 年，我們將在目標水平上重置該基線。邁克爾早些時候提到，我們的商店和配送中心都看到了工資上漲。雖然這種情況有所緩解，但我們無法通過提高其他效率來完全緩解商店內的這些增長。然後是我之前對貨運的評論，我們預計雙方都會有好消息，但海運方面會有更顯著的改善。

And then in terms of buying, Michael, I know you know there's a lot of merchandise out in the marketplace. But the way we're way we're looking at that now is we are really highly focused on value and giving our customers the best value possible. And -- so that very much depends on our mix on the buys, what we're doing and really driving broad-based across the company. I can't emphasize this enough, the best value possible that we can because that really -- our customer is under such inflationary pressures that it definitely is impacting on her spend and so her discretionary spend. And so that's really how we're thinking about that, making sure that our values are correct and that we have a good, better, best strategy and that she really feels great about what she buys and that it's compelling to come to the store. And so those AUR since it would take us down the path of AUR is not a direct opening price point strategy. It really is good, better, best strategy based on brands that we have out there so that she can really get the value that she's come to expect from us.

然後在購買方面，邁克爾，我知道你知道市場上有很多商品。但我們現在看待這個問題的方式是，我們真的高度關注價值，並為我們的客戶提供盡可能最好的價值。而且 - 所以這在很大程度上取決於我們的購買組合，我們正在做的事情以及真正推動整個公司的廣泛基礎。我怎麼強調都不為過，這是我們所能做到的最好的價值，因為那真的——我們的客戶承受著如此大的通脹壓力，這肯定會影響她的支出以及她的可自由支配支出。所以這就是我們真正考慮的方式，確保我們的價值觀是正確的，我們有一個好的、更好的、最好的策略，而且她真的對她買的東西感覺很好，而且來商店很有吸引力。因此，那些 AUR 因為它會讓我們走上 AUR 的道路，所以它不是直接的開盤價策略。這確實是基於我們現有品牌的好、更好、最好的策略，這樣她才能真正獲得她期望從我們這裡獲得的價值。

Barb, could I chase that with a question on how you think about what are the biggest opportunities that you see to go after some market share this year to help -- if there is an opportunity to drive comp above flat, maybe it's from the ability to compete better, anything that stands out to you early in the year?

Barb，我能否追問一個問題，你如何看待你認為今年追求一些市場份額的最大機會是什麼？為了更好地競爭，年初有什麼讓您印象深刻的事情嗎？

I think -- well, I think there's a few things. Just internally, we had our own internal issues, obviously, last year within our assortments. So correcting those issues right now is important to us just from a balance and mix perspective. Based off of the carrier issues and the things that went wrong last year, I think that's probably first and foremost, getting that corrected and then really rightsizing again, our values that we're offering the customer and understanding what our pricing strategy really is and hitting all 3 customers.

我認為 - 好吧，我認為有幾件事。就內部而言，顯然，去年我們的產品系列中存在我們自己的內部問題。因此，從平衡和混合的角度來看，現在糾正這些問題對我們來說很重要。基於運營商問題和去年出現的問題，我認為這可能首先是糾正錯誤，然後再次調整規模，我們為客戶提供的價值觀，並了解我們的定價策略到底是什麼，以及擊中所有 3 個客戶。

Then outside of that is if we execute better, history would tell us and we chase, which is what we do best, in a time where there's a lot of merchandise in the market, which there is, we should be able to drive sales and take market share. And that market share, as you know, can come from any bucket of merchandising now since everyone is -- whether it's big boxes or everyone is in the game now. So I think that's kind of the formula for us to correct our issues from last year to get our value straight and so that the customer really is getting a great deal maximizing those closeouts in the market.

除此之外，如果我們執行得更好，歷史會告訴我們，我們會追逐，這是我們最擅長的，在市場上有很多商品的時代，我們應該能夠推動銷售和佔據市場份額。正如你所知，這個市場份額現在可以來自任何一桶商品，因為每個人都是——無論是大盒子還是每個人現在都在遊戲中。因此，我認為這是我們糾正去年問題的一種方式，以直接獲得我們的價值，這樣客戶就可以真正從市場上獲得最大的收益。

And listen, remember, we have a very large merchant team. We have 900 merchants. And so -- and strong relationships in the market. So now is the time for us to maximize on that and to really give the customer what she's come to expect from us and to get ourselves set. And if we do those things, then I think we'll get ourselves on the track we want to be on and continue to grow and gain market share.

聽著，記住，我們有一個非常龐大的商人團隊。我們有 900 家商家。等等 - 以及市場上的牢固關係。所以現在是我們最大限度地利用這一點並真正為客戶提供她對我們的期望並讓我們自己做好準備的時候了。如果我們做這些事情，那麼我認為我們會讓自己走上我們想要的軌道並繼續增長並獲得市場份額。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Alex Straton 與摩根士丹利的合作。

It sounds like sales recovery is key to returning to pre-COVID margin and the earnings algorithm, but are you exploring ways to kind of offset that while top line growth is underperforming that typical algorithm? Maybe put differently, what specific levers do you have in COGS or SG&A to offset some of the freight and wage headwinds you're seeing this year? I know you mentioned some efficiencies, but any examples there -- levers broadly would be helpful to hear.

聽起來銷售復甦是恢復到 COVID 之前的利潤率和收益算法的關鍵，但您是否正在探索方法來抵消這種影響，而頂線增長表現不及典型算法？也許換句話說，您在 COGS 或 SG&A 方面有哪些具體槓桿來抵消您今年看到的一些運費和工資逆風？我知道你提到了一些效率，但那裡的任何例子——廣義上的槓桿都會有助於聽到。

Sure. You'll see in our capital spend this year, we have about $810 million included in that and one of the biggest increases there are technology investments that we're making. And some examples of that would be automation in our distribution centers. It would be looking at store level activities and providing technology to make those more efficient in all of our stores, for instance, how our associates mark down goods, how they receive in the back room and making sure we can continue to have associates focusing on customer facing and activities. So those are a few of those examples. And we have -- as we have over the years, have a road map of efficiencies that will continue to work on as an organization and drive into the P&L.

當然。你會在我們今年的資本支出中看到，我們有大約 8.1 億美元，其中最大的增長之一是我們正在進行的技術投資。這方面的一些例子是我們配送中心的自動化。它將關注商店級別的活動並提供技術以提高我們所有商店的效率，例如，我們的員工如何降價商品，他們如何在後台接收並確保我們可以繼續讓員工專注於面向客戶和活動。這些只是其中的幾個例子。我們有——正如我們多年來所做的那樣，有一個效率路線圖，該路線圖將作為一個組織繼續努力並推動損益。

And the next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自 Ike Boruchow 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

This is Jesse Sobelson on for Ike. I believe at the beginning of last year's first quarter, the buying environment was just beginning to turn into a tailwind for you guys. So how does the environment look today versus this time last year and then versus maybe 6 months ago?

這是 Ike 的 Jesse Sobelson。我相信在去年第一季度初，購買環境才剛剛開始對你們有利。那麼今天的環境與去年這個時候以及 6 個月前相比如何呢？

Sure. The buying environment right now is very good. I mean there's a lot of merchandise. It's very broad-based. It's across all different classifications and types of products. So the buying environment is probably as good as it gets right now. I would say that, that environment has been there, though for the last few months and started at the beginning of last year, just timed perhaps differently depending upon what type of product it was and when it came in, all going back to the carrier issue, right? So everyone was kind of -- vendors were kind of late in receiving their goods because people couldn't really control the way the freight came in. So it's been here for a while. I would think at this point in time, a lot of stores have promoting to get their inventories in line in-store, but the vendor community still has a lot of merchandise that they'd like to move through and take them forward to newness to the next year.

當然。現在的購買環境非常好。我的意思是有很多商品。它的基礎非常廣泛。它涵蓋所有不同的分類和類型的產品。因此，購買環境可能與現在一樣好。我想說的是，這種環境一直存在，儘管在過去幾個月裡並從去年年初開始，只是時間可能有所不同，具體取決於它是什麼類型的產品以及它進來的時間，所有這些都會回到運營商那裡問題，對吧？所以每個人都有點 - 供應商收到貨物有點晚，因為人們無法真正控制貨運的方式。所以它已經存在了一段時間。我想在這個時間點，很多商店都在促銷以使他們的庫存在店內排隊，但是供應商社區仍然有很多商品他們想要通過並讓他們走向新奇下一年。

So I think it's I think it's very good now. I think it's been good, and I think it will be good for a while as the vendors are trying to work through that and understand what that looks like and then understand what kind of inventory position they want to take go forward as opposed to having a result and that coming from the carrier issues that everybody kind of felt at the same time. So...

所以我認為這是我認為現在非常好。我認為這很好，而且我認為這會持續一段時間，因為供應商正在努力解決這個問題並了解它的樣子，然後了解他們想要採取什麼樣的庫存狀況而不是擁有結果以及來自每個人同時感受到的運營商問題。所以...

And the next question comes from the line of Adrienne Yih with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Adrienne Yih。

Great. First, just a housekeeping. Is it fair to use $200 million to $250 million in sales for that 53rd week? And then Barbara, I think, maybe this for you. What is the issue with sort of the packaway timing. And I know packaway ended up at 40% but that's still below kind of run rate norm. And I'm just thinking if the environment is super conducive, would you not want to kind of have that short stay because I know you guys do it more on a 4-month or less or whatever shorter duration.

偉大的。首先，只是家政服務。在第 53 週使用 2 億到 2.5 億美元的銷售額是否公平？然後是芭芭拉，我想，也許這是給你的。打包時間的問題是什麼。我知道 packaway 最終達到了 40%，但這仍然低於運行率標準。而且我只是在想，如果環境超級有利，你會不會想要那種短暫的停留，因為我知道你們在 4 個月或更短的時間或更短的時間內做更多。

And then last one is for the shrink. I think you do it once a year, but what shrink as a percent of sales in a normal backdrop, where is it today? Sorry to interrupt.

然後最後一個是收縮。我想你每年做一次，但在正常背景下銷售額的百分比縮水了多少，今天它在哪裡？抱歉打擾了。

Okay. No problem. So the packaway is 40%, overall deals that we feel very, very good about. And you have to remember that in the beginning of last year, and you'll see this as we go along, we had all those late goods that were home goods that we took into our DCs, which would have increased part of our packaway. The 40% that we have in there right now, we feel very good about. And buying packaway is an art, you can buy a lot of packaway time you want, right? But the packaway you put in there, you have to feel it's great product at great values. And right now, with the buying environment being very favorable with really, quite frankly, broad access to some really key brands, you're going to be very judicious about what you put in packaway and how you time that and what that looks like. So I'd say we feel good about the position we're in today. We have a tremendous amount of liquidity and we really feel like we're in a good place.

好的。沒問題。所以包裝是 40%，我們感覺非常非常好的整體交易。你必須記住，在去年年初，你會看到這一點，我們有所有那些遲到的貨物，這些貨物是我們放入配送中心的家居用品，這會增加我們包裝的一部分。我們現在在那裡的 40%，我們感覺非常好。而且買packaway是一門藝術，你可以買到很多你想要的packaway時間，對吧？但是你放在那裡的包裝，你必須覺得它是物超所值的好產品。而現在，由於購買環境非常有利，坦率地說，可以廣泛接觸到一些真正關鍵的品牌，你將非常明智地決定你把什麼放在 packaway 中，你如何計時以及它看起來像什麼。所以我想說我們對今天的處境感覺良好。我們擁有大量的流動性，我們真的覺得我們處在一個好地方。

Adrienne, on shrink. So our strength, we don't disclose what it is externally, but it is a place where we constantly invest, whether it's security tags or no equipment in the stores. If you've been in our stores, you see we have people in front of the store and our shrink was slightly higher this year as we closed out the year.

艾德麗安，收縮。所以我們的實力，我們對外不透露是什麼，但這是我們不斷投入的地方，不管是防偽標籤還是店裡沒有設備。如果你去過我們的商店，你會看到我們的商店前面有人，我們今年的收縮率略高，因為我們結束了這一年。

And Adrienne...

還有艾德麗安...

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

Well, I was just going to jump in on the 53rd week. So a little bit higher than what you said. You can think about it as an additional week, somewhat pro rata, but then downward calibrated a little bit that it's, call it, in January, February week and lighter than an average week.

好吧，我正打算在第 53 週加入。所以比你說的高一點點。您可以將其視為額外的一周，有點按比例，但隨後向下校準了一點，稱之為 1 月、2 月的一周，比平均一周更輕。

And the next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

下一個問題來自 Chuck Grom 和 Gordon Haskett 的對話。

Curious if stores in higher demographic markets performed better and store in lower income demographic markets. And a second follow-up, there's a lot of talk about SNAP cuts next month and lower tax refunds this year versus last. Curious how much of a potential headwind that could be for you guys over the next couple of months.

想知道人口較高的市場中的商店是否表現更好，而收入較低的人口市場中的商店是否表現更好。第二個跟進，有很多關於下個月削減 SNAP 以及今年與去年相比降低退稅的討論。想知道在接下來的幾個月裡，你們可能會有多大的潛在逆風。

Yes, we'll have to see. On the tax refunds, they just started to come out last week, and that does have an impact, especially for our dd's business, but we'll have to see how that plays out. We certainly where we're coming into it, the tax refunds could be lower. So we'll have to see how it plays out. But certainly, that is a customer that can be impacted by both the tax refunds and the SNAP benefits. On your other question, I think you asked a question around demographics. And I think I answered this earlier with Paul, we have not seen a material shift in spending across different income demographics.

是的，我們必須拭目以待。關於退稅，他們上週才開始出台，這確實有影響，尤其是對我們 dd 的業務，但我們必須看看結果如何。我們當然會進入它的地方，退稅可能會更低。所以我們得看看結果如何。但可以肯定的是，該客戶可能會同時受到退稅和 SNAP 福利的影響。關於你的另一個問題，我想你問了一個關於人口統計的問題。我想我早些時候和保羅一起回答了這個問題，我們沒有看到不同收入人群的支出發生重大變化。

And the next question comes from the line of Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自布魯克羅奇與高盛的合作。

Barbara, it sounds like you continue to see opportunities to rightsize the value that you offer the consumer to go after that market share that's available to you and that you're still looking to optimize that value. Can you talk a little bit more about the actions that your buying team can take to ensure that you're offering that value? And can you contextualize that with the higher rate of markdowns that you also saw in the quarter?

芭芭拉，聽起來您繼續看到機會調整您為消費者提供的價值，以追求您可以獲得的市場份額，並且您仍在尋求優化該價值。你能多談談你的採購團隊可以採取哪些行動來確保你提供的價值嗎？你能否將這一點與你在本季度看到的更高的降價率聯繫起來？

Sure. Well, obviously, when there's a lot of merchandise in the marketplace, the buyers are out looking for really great deals. So it starts with being in the market, having good relationships and really getting the deals at the prices that the customer wants and then offering that value to the customer. So I think that's critical for what's going on in the world today. It's always been critical for us delivering branded bargains. And I think today it's even more important than it's been before.

當然。好吧，很明顯，當市場上有很多商品時，買家就會出去尋找真正划算的交易。因此，首先要進入市場，建立良好的關係，真正以客戶想要的價格獲得交易，然後為客戶提供價值。所以我認為這對於當今世界正在發生的事情至關重要。這對我們提供品牌特價商品一直至關重要。而且我認為今天它比以前更重要。

In terms of just -- rightsizing the value just as a concept of rightsizing the value. I think that's really from putting things out there and watching things turn, watching things -- watching the customer vote and then making the adjustments based off of what she's telling us, whether it's in the assortment and the products that she want or whether it's in the retail that we put it in. And Brooke, what was the second question?

就公正而言——將價值合理化作為價值合理化的概念。我認為這真的是把東西放在那裡，觀察事情的變化，觀察事情——觀察客戶投票，然後根據她告訴我們的內容做出調整，無論是在她想要的分類和產品中，還是在我們放入的零售店。布魯克，第二個問題是什麼？

The second question was just how to think about the time line of getting that from a markdown perspective. It sounds like making those adjustments does require some markdown. And so does the markdown have to increase year-on-year as you move through 2023?

第二個問題只是如何從降價的角度考慮獲得它的時間線。聽起來進行這些調整確實需要降價。那麼，隨著 2023 年的到來，降價幅度是否必須逐年增加？

We took -- okay, I understood. So we took somewhat slightly higher markdowns in the fourth quarter. And we made sure that when we came out of the fourth quarter that we really came out of everything clean that we took everything. And if the value wasn't right, we didn't wait, we took markdowns, they were somewhat higher, they weren't that much higher, they were somewhat higher. And so if you're rightsizing your values going forward, you wouldn't expect to be taking additional markdowns. The key is to drive receipts, which drives sales. So if we have the right values and return quick enough, we'll drive receipts, which will drive sales, which will put us in a healthy position.

我們採取了 - 好吧，我明白了。因此，我們在第四季度的降價幅度略高。我們確保當我們從第四節出來時，我們真的從一切乾淨的東西中走出來，我們拿走了一切。如果價值不對，我們不會等待，我們會降價，價格會高一些，不會高很多，但會高一些。因此，如果您正在調整您未來的價值，您就不會期望進行額外的降價。關鍵是增加收入，從而推動銷售。因此，如果我們有正確的價值觀並足夠快地返回，我們將增加收入，這將推動銷售，這將使我們處於健康的位置。

And our next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with the Telsey Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey Group 的 Dana Telsey。

As you think about the real estate portfolio in the stores, we obviously have heard about some of the space availabilities from the Bed Bath or a Party City. Is this an opportunity for you? And does it all change the cadence of store openings or the locations or regions for either 2023 or 2024 in your outlook?

當您考慮商店中的房地產組合時，我們顯然聽說過 Bed Bath 或 Party City 的一些可用空間。這對你來說是一個機會嗎？在您看來，這是否會改變 2023 年或 2024 年開店的節奏或地點或地區？

Dana, certainly, Bed Bath, Beyond and Party City, like they have been historically, any time there's retail bankruptcies that's provided us opportunities for new store locations. I would say at this point, it hasn't changed our outlook. We will review potential new site on a store-by-store basis. And if it's appropriate for Ross and dd's location, we can certainly add it to our portfolio. But as we think about 2023, as we said in the commentary, we think it's about 100 new locations, about 75 Ross and 25 dd's.

Dana，當然，Bed Bath，Beyond 和 Party City，就像他們在歷史上一樣，任何時候零售破產都為我們提供了新店選址的機會。我要說的是，這並沒有改變我們的看法。我們將逐家審查潛在的新站點。如果它適合 Ross 和 dd 的位置，我們當然可以將其添加到我們的產品組合中。但正如我們在評論中所說，我們考慮到 2023 年，我們認為大約有 100 個新地點，大約 75 個 Ross 和 25 個 dd。

Got it. And then, Barbara, just on the category mix, what was the weakest? And what do you see as opportunities on the category side as we go through 2023?

知道了。然後，芭芭拉，就類別組合而言，最弱的是什麼？到 2023 年，您認為類別方面的機會是什麼？

The business pretty much performed at the same level. I mean, obviously, some things are better. I mean home and gifting was very good, shoes was very good. If I look at shoes from a 2-year basis, the year before we had carrier issues, which also helped us to drive some sales this year. I think the key is to get the category mix balance to what the customer wants. And I think last year with the carrier issues and with some of the things that went on in our assortments, that we didn't have that. So I think now it's really identifying what she wants, making those move to ensure that we are delivering the products that she's moving towards as things continue to evolve in her assortment and just being on target with that, making sure we're making moves quick enough, fast enough and the advantage when there's a lot of goods in the marketplace, it allows you to do more of these things and oftentimes, sometimes be able to make some bolder moves.

該業務的表現幾乎處於同一水平。我的意思是，顯然，有些事情更好。我的意思是家和禮物非常好，鞋子非常好。如果我從 2 年的角度來看鞋子，那是我們遇到承運人問題的前一年，這也幫助我們推動了今年的一些銷售。我認為關鍵是要使品類組合與客戶的需求保持平衡。而且我認為去年由於運營商問題以及我們分類中發生的一些事情，我們沒有這樣做。所以我認為現在它真正確定了她想要什麼，採取這些行動以確保我們提供她正朝著她的方向發展的產品，因為事情在她的分類中不斷發展，並且只是瞄準目標，確保我們快速採取行動足夠、足夠快和優勢 當市場上有很多商品時，它可以讓你做更多這些事情，而且經常，有時能夠做出一些更大膽的舉動。

So I think that's kind of how I'm thinking about it. I'm thinking about just getting our inventories and classifications in line and then more fine-tuning to what -- if we were talking about this a few months ago, we would be saying people now want career pants versus casual, right? But I'm thinking more broader that with all the carriers that went on and delivery issues and everything else, that things were not exactly the way we would like them to have been even if we wanted them to be there. It just -- it wasn't balanced.

所以我認為這就是我的想法。我正在考慮讓我們的庫存和分類保持一致，然後對什麼進行微調——如果我們幾個月前談論這個，我們會說人們現在想要職業褲而不是休閒褲，對吧？但我在更廣泛地考慮，對於所有繼續進行的運營商和交付問題以及其他一切，即使我們希望他們在那裡，事情也不完全是我們希望他們出現的方式。它只是 - 它不平衡。

So I think that's our number 1 thing is getting ourselves back in line. We made a lot of those moves into the fourth quarter and getting ourselves repositioned to where we want to be. And then going again hand-in-hand with making sure we come in clean -- into the year clean from an inventory position and then giving ourselves the flexibility to go in the market and buy it the way the customer wants it and sees it.

所以我認為我們的首要任務是讓自己回到正軌。我們在第四節做了很多這樣的動作，讓自己重新定位到我們想要的位置。然後再次攜手確保我們從庫存位置乾淨地進入一年，然後讓我們自己靈活地進入市場並以客戶想要的方式購買它並看到它。

And our next question comes from the line of Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Simeon Siegel。

Could you discuss what like-for-like AUR look like versus mix shift driven AUR maybe? And then a dumb question. I think interest income came in nicely higher this quarter. And if I heard correctly, I think you're expecting a pretty nice jump or a nice number this year as well. Is that just a function of higher rates? And does it impact your capital return strategy? And maybe just given how large the cash balance is, any broader thoughts on your use of cash with all the moving pieces?

你能討論一下 like-for-like AUR 與 mix shift driven AUR 的區別嗎？然後是一個愚蠢的問題。我認為本季度的利息收入大幅增加。如果我沒聽錯的話，我想你預計今年會有一個很好的跳躍或一個不錯的數字。這只是更高利率的結果嗎？它會影響您的資本回報策略嗎？也許只是考慮到現金餘額有多大，您對所有移動部件使用現金有更廣泛的想法嗎？

Sure. The interest income is entirely driven by our cash balances. That's invested in government-backed securities. So as interest rates have risen, we're getting a benefit there. In terms of how we're thinking about use of cash, and I guess just general capital allocation, we will, as we always do, first invest in the business to support profitable growth. We also plan to pay down COVID-related debt that begins to mature over the next few years in '24 and '25 as when those first tranches mature. And then we'd expect to grow our shareholder payouts as the business grows, as I said, deliberately over time, and we do that in a very deliberate and reliable manner over time.

當然。利息收入完全由我們的現金餘額驅動。那是投資於政府支持的證券。因此，隨著利率上升，我們從中受益。就我們如何考慮現金的使用而言，我想只是一般的資本配置，我們將一如既往地首先投資於業務以支持盈利增長。我們還計劃償還與 COVID 相關的債務，這些債務將在 24 年和 25 年的未來幾年內開始到期，就像第一批付款到期時一樣。然後，正如我所說，隨著時間的推移，隨著業務的增長，我們希望增加股東的支出，而且隨著時間的推移，我們會以一種非常慎重和可靠的方式做到這一點。

And then in terms of our AUR, our AUR has been relatively flat despite all the different shifts and moving parts in the business. So some of that comes from valuing some areas differently or products differently in other businesses coming up because obviously, shoes has a higher AUR than some of our other businesses. So that's really where we stand today, how we're thinking about it.

然後就我們的 AUR 而言，儘管業務中存在各種不同的變化和移動部分，但我們的 AUR 一直相對平穩。因此，其中一些來自對某些領域的不同估值或對其他業務的不同產品的估值，因為很明顯，鞋子的 AUR 高於我們的其他一些業務。所以這就是我們今天所處的位置，我們是如何思考它的。

And our next question comes from the line of Jay Sole with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Jay Sole。

Great. I'm wondering if you can elaborate a little bit on some of the higher wages that you mentioned as a driver of the EBIT margin in the first quarter this year. Can you just talk about the impact on what you're seeing at the store level versus like, say, a warehousing level versus at a corporate level, that would be helpful.

偉大的。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您提到的今年第一季度息稅前利潤率驅動因素中的一些更高的工資。你能談談對你在商店層面看到的東西的影響，比如倉儲層面和公司層面，這會有所幫助。

Sure. I mean it's been a competitive market across all 3 of those for some time. What we saw during COVID is the biggest pressure we had was in the distribution center, line item and that we've seen the pressure there slow down considerably. And for the stores, we continue to take a market-by-market approach to staffing them and increasing wages where appropriate. In addition, as you know, there's growing statutory minimum wages for us in almost half of our store base, and that includes both statewide and local municipality minimum wages. But overall, it's really driven at this point by those minimum wages -- wage increases. I would say we feel good about the workforce in totality and are confident about what we have in place for the year.

當然。我的意思是，一段時間以來，這三個市場一直是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們在 COVID 期間看到的最大壓力是在配送中心、訂單項目中，我們已經看到那裡的壓力大大放緩。對於商店，我們繼續採取逐個市場的方法來為他們配備人員並在適當的時候增加工資。此外，如您所知，我們幾乎一半的商店基地的法定最低工資都在增加，其中包括全州和當地市政當局的最低工資。但總的來說，在這一點上，它確實是由最低工資——工資增長——驅動的。我想說的是，我們總體上對員工隊伍感覺良好，並對我們今年的工作充滿信心。

And our next question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine。

Crossing my fingers, you'll answer this one, but are you currently trending in line with your first quarter guide?

我祈禱你會回答這個問題，但你目前的趨勢是否與你的第一季度指南一致？

We wouldn't. Our practice is, Laura, to not comment on inter-quarter trends.

我們不會。勞拉，我們的做法是不對季度間趨勢發表評論。

Understood. Is the guidance for the full year comp to be flat would that assume that traffic is roughly flat this year?

明白了。假設今年的交通量大致持平，全年補償的指導是否持平？

We -- again, we don't plan the business around traffic or transaction. Our view has always been if we provide the great branded bargains to the customer, that will be a combination of, one, bringing more customers to the store and two, when they're in the store, increasing the size of the average basket. What's happened over the last several years is that basket has grown and even into last year, on top of the stimulus year the customer is buying more when they're coming to the store.

我們 - 再次重申，我們不會圍繞流量或交易來規劃業務。我們的觀點一直是，如果我們向顧客提供超值的品牌折扣，那將是以下兩者的結合，一是將更多顧客帶到商店，二是當他們在商店時，增加平均購物籃的大小。過去幾年發生的事情是，籃子已經增長，甚至到去年，除了刺激年之外，顧客來商店時購買的商品更多。

Let me see if I can get this one. The gross margin, and this is last -- the gross margin commentary that you've made, is that consistent with taking more markdowns this year for the year as a whole compared to last year?

讓我看看我能不能得到這個。毛利率，這是最後一個 - 你所做的毛利率評論，與去年相比，今年全年整體降價幅度是否一致？

Laura, we don't guide really at that component level of merchandise margin, but obviously, our markdown levels will be highly dependent on if we deliver our sales plan and by the right goods. The biggest moving part as we said, in merchandise margin will be the ocean freight cost reductions that we're seeing in the marketplace.

勞拉，我們並沒有真正指導商品利潤的組成部分水平，但顯然，我們的降價水平將在很大程度上取決於我們是否交付了我們的銷售計劃和正確的商品。正如我們所說，商品利潤率中最大的變動部分將是我們在市場上看到的海運成本降低。

And our next question comes from the line of Aneesha Sherman with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Aneesha Sherman 與 Bernstein 的對話。

So the comp guidance for the full year implies a 4-year stack of 10 a CAGR of just over 2%, which is quite a bit lower than your historical pre-COVID performance. Are you still -- do you still believe in the medium term, algo being kind of a little bit higher than that around the 3% comp algo? Or is there something structural about the comps that you think will decelerate even beyond this year?

因此，全年的 comp 指導意味著 4 年堆棧 10 的複合年增長率略高於 2%，這比您在 COVID 之前的歷史表現要低很多。你仍然 - 你仍然相信中期，算法比 3% comp 算法稍微高一點嗎？還是您認為在今年以後還會減速的補償有一些結構性的東西？

And then, Michael, you talked about the sensitivity of margins to comp, but with higher wages now embedded into your cost structure, has that sensitivity changed? Or is it still a similar sensitivity as what you've talked about in the past?

然後，邁克爾，你談到了利潤率對薪酬的敏感性，但隨著更高的工資現在嵌入到你的成本結構中，這種敏感性是否發生了變化？或者它仍然是與您過去談到的類似的敏感性？

Aneesha, on the guidance, it's hard to comment on structural in this environment. As we guide the year, it's really a function of us wanting to be very conservative in a blasting inflationary environment and a macro economy that we'll see how that plays out later in the year. So I don't think there's anything to read into that at this point. Obviously, we hope to beat the guidance. We think it's a good way to run our business in an uncertain environment. In terms of the long-term algorithm, it certainly doesn't change as I said earlier, that a beat to comp is 10 to 15 basis points upside. And then longer term, we think if we can grow the 3% to 4% comp as we did historically prior to COVID that we'll be able to leverage the P&L.

Aneesha，在指導下，很難對這種環境中的結構發表評論。當我們指導這一年時，我們希望在爆炸性的通脹環境和宏觀經濟中非常保守，這實際上是我們的一個功能，我們將在今年晚些時候看到它是如何發揮作用的。所以我認為目前沒有什麼可解讀的。顯然，我們希望擊敗指導。我們認為這是在不確定的環境中開展業務的好方法。就長期算法而言，它肯定不會像我之前所說的那樣改變，即 10 到 15 個基點上漲。然後從長遠來看，我們認為如果我們能夠像 COVID 之前的歷史那樣將 3% 增加到 4%，那麼我們將能夠利用損益。

And our final question comes from the line of Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Corey Tarlowe 與 Jefferies 的合作。

You mentioned that shoes had done pretty well a few times. Is there any way to parse out maybe whether it was in formal or casual, what did better? And then I know availability is quite robust, but across your good, better, best strategy, is there any particular segment within those 3 that's maybe you're seeing a little bit better availability. And then just lastly, on CapEx. Historically, you're usually around, I think, like $500 million or so in CapEx. And now I think in this year, you're expecting to do $800 million and in this coming year as well, another $800 million. So could you just parse out maybe what the incremental spend is really going to be? I know you talked a little bit about automation, but just curious what else there is in there.

你提到鞋子有幾次做得很好。有沒有什麼辦法可以解析出它是正式的還是休閒的，哪個更好？然後我知道可用性非常強大，但在您的好、更好、最好的策略中，這 3 個中是否有任何特定部分可能讓您看到更好的可用性。最後，關於資本支出。從歷史上看，我認為你的資本支出通常在 5 億美元左右。現在我想在今年，你預計會做 8 億美元，在接下來的一年裡，還有 8 億美元。那麼，您能否解析出增量支出的真實情況？我知道您談到了一些自動化，但只是好奇其中還有什麼。

So let me start with shoes. So the shoe business is pretty broad based. I would say that athletic performed slightly better than brand shoes, but the shoe business, again, the shoes industry had issues delivering, we remember that in 2021 with the whole carrier issue. So it is pretty broad-based and meeting customers' demands that they want not just athletic, but other brands shoes to wear. That's the first thing. In terms of a good, better, best, the availability is pretty broad-based in all 3 buckets. So I think that's a little unusual, but that is what -- that's kind of going on out there right at this moment.

所以讓我從鞋子開始。所以製鞋業的基礎相當廣泛。我會說運動鞋的表現略好於品牌鞋，但是鞋業，鞋業在交付方面又遇到了問題，我們記得在 2021 年整個運營商問題。所以它的基礎非常廣泛，可以滿足客戶的需求，他們不僅想要運動鞋，還想穿其他品牌的鞋子。這是第一件事。就好、更好、最好而言，可用性在所有 3 個方面都非常廣泛。所以我認為這有點不尋常，但這就是——此刻正在發生的事情。

And Corey, on CapEx. So our $810 million will roughly be 40% new in existing stores, 40% distribution centers and about 20% technology and other investments. And I would say with our new store opening plan of 100 new stores, that's -- those levels are consistent with pre-pandemic levels from a mix standpoint, the distribution line, probably a little bit inflated as we ramp up capacity to support our long-term growth and then the technology side is a ramp-up as we're making investments not only from a customer convenience standpoint in the stores, but also building capabilities and additional tools in the merchandising organization.

和科里，關於資本支出。因此，我們的 8.1 億美元將大約有 40% 用於現有商店的新投資、40% 的配送中心以及大約 20% 的技術和其他投資。我想說的是，我們的新店開業計劃是 100 家新店，從混合的角度來看，這些水平與大流行前的水平一致，分銷線可能有點膨脹，因為我們提高了產能以支持我們的長期發展- 長期增長，然後是技術方面的增長，因為我們不僅從商店的客戶便利性角度進行投資，而且還在銷售組織中建立能力和其他工具。

And at this time, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And now I would like to turn the call back over to Barbara Rentler for closing remarks.

而此時，我們已經到了問答環節的尾聲。現在，我想將電話轉回給芭芭拉·倫特勒 (Barbara Rentler) 作結束語。

Thanks joining us today and for your interest in Ross Stores.

感謝今天加入我們並感謝您對 Ross Stores 的關注。

That concludes our conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.

我們的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。