洛克威爾自動化 (ROK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to Rockwell Automation's quarterly conference call. I need to remind everyone that today's conference call is being recorded. Later in the call, we will open up the lines for questions.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們召開並歡迎參加羅克韋爾自動化的季度電話會議。我需要提醒大家，今天的電話會議正在錄音。稍後在通話中，我們將開放提問熱線。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Aijan Zellner, Head of Investor Relations and Market Strategy. Ms. Zellner, please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係和市場策略主管 Aijan Zellner。澤爾納女士，請繼續。

Thank you, [Abbie] . Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Rock Automation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. With me today is Blake Moret, our Chairman and CEO; and Nick Gangestad, our CFO. Our results were released earlier this morning and the press release and charts have been posted to our website. Both the press recent charts include and (inaudible) reference non-GAAP measures.

謝謝你，[艾比]。早安，感謝您參加 Rock Automation 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的是我們的董事長兼執行長布萊克莫雷特 (Blake Moret)；和我們的財務長 Nick Gangestad。我們的結果於今天早上早些時候發布，新聞稿和圖表已發佈到我們的網站上。媒體最近的圖表均包含並（聽不清楚）參考非公認會計原則衡量標準。

Both the press release and charts include reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures. A webcast of this call will be available on our website for replay for the next 30 days. For your convenience, a transcript of our prepared remarks will also be available on our website at the conclusion of today's call.

新聞稿和圖表均包含這些非公認會計準則衡量指標的調節表。我們的網站將提供本次電話會議的網路廣播，以便在未來 30 天內重播。為了您的方便，今天電話會議結束時，我們還將在我們的網站上提供我們準備好的演講稿。

Before we get started, I need to remind you that our comments will include statements related to the expected future results of our company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and detailed in all our SEC filings. And with that, I'll hand it over to Blake.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們的評論將包括與我們公司的預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益報告中描述並在所有 SEC 文件中詳細說明的各種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。有了這個，我會把它交給布萊克。

Thanks, Aijana, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Let's turn to our fourth quarter results on Slide 3. We delivered strong double-digit growth this quarter with both sales and adjusted earnings growing by over 20% year-over-year. Our solid execution and improving supply chain helped us exceed our Q4 expectations, resulting in double-digit sales growth across all regions and business segments.

謝謝，Aijana，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。讓我們轉向幻燈片 3 上的第四季度業績。本季度我們實現了強勁的兩位數增長，銷售額和調整後收益同比增長超過 20%。我們紮實的執行力和不斷改善的供應鏈幫助我們超越了第四季度的預期，使所有地區和業務部門的銷售額實現了兩位數的成長。

With lead times significantly improving across our product lines, we were able to deliver products to customers faster than expected this quarter contributing to over $2.5 billion in total sales. This record shipment reflects Rockwell's continued capacity investments and demonstrates our organization's ability to scale for sustained growth. Total sales were up 20.5% versus prior year. Organic sales grew almost 18% year-over-year. Currency translation and acquisitions each contributed about 1.5 points of growth in the quarter. Consistent with prior quarters, the split of our sales by business segment, region and industry was largely driven by the composition of our backlog. And our Intelligent Devices Business segment, organic sales increased 18% versus prior year, with strong growth across all regions.

隨著我們產品線的交貨時間顯著改善，我們能夠比預期更快地向客戶交付產品，本季貢獻了超過 25 億美元的總銷售額。這項創紀錄的出貨量反映了羅克韋爾公司持續的產能投資，並展示了我們組織擴大規模以實現持續成長的能力。總銷售額比上年增長 20.5%。有機銷售額較去年同期成長近 18%。貨幣換算和收購分別為本季貢獻了約 1.5 個百分點的成長。與前幾季一致，我們的銷售額按業務部門、地區和行業的劃分很大程度上是由我們的積壓訂單的組成決定的。我們的智慧設備業務部門的有機銷售額比上年增長了 18%，所有地區均實現強勁增長。

Within this segment, independent car technology had another strong quarter, finishing this fiscal year with over 50% growth in sales. This offering continues to be an integral part of our advanced material handling and production logistics offering. We are excited about our latest addition to this differentiated portfolio with our acquisition of ClearPath Robotics, and I will cover some strategic highlights of this deal later on the call. Software and Control organic sales grew 23% year-over-year. We continue to innovate in both the software and hardware portions of our architecture with significant new offerings such as high availability, process IO, FactoryTalk optics and FactoryTalk data mosaics. We are pleased with how our organic and inorganic investments in this business are delivering new customer value and continued share gains.

在這一細分市場中，獨立汽車技術季度表現強勁，本財年銷售額成長超過 50%。該產品仍然是我們先進的物料搬運和生產物流產品不可分割的一部分。透過收購 ClearPath Robotics，我們對這項差異化投資組合的最新補充感到非常興奮，我將在稍後的電話會議上介紹這筆交易的一些策略亮點。軟體和控制有機銷售額較去年同期成長 23%。我們持續在架構的軟體和硬體部分進行創新，推出重要的新產品，例如高可用性、流程 IO、FactoryTalk 光學元件和 FactoryTalk 資料拼接。我們對該業務的有機和無機投資如何創造新的客戶價值和持續的份額收益感到高興。

Life Cycle Services organic sales were up over 10% year-over-year. Book-to-bill in this segment was 0.97 and above the historical average for Q4. Within this segment, our Sensia joint venture had a strong finish to the year with over 50% year-over-year order growth in the quarter. This growth was driven by strategic wins in process automation and artificial lift control systems, positioning this business for continued double-digit growth and improved profitability in fiscal year '24.

生命週期服務有機銷售額較去年同期成長超過 10%。該細分市場的訂單出貨比為 0.97，高於第四季的歷史平均值。在這一領域，我們的 Sensia 合資企業今年表現強勁，本季訂單年增超過 50%。這一成長是由流程自動化和人工舉升控制系統的策略性勝利所推動的，使該業務在 24 財年實現持續兩位數成長並提高獲利能力。

Information Solutions and Connected Services sales grew 10% versus prior year. One of the largest information solutions wins ever was with Prometeon Tyre, a global leader in tire manufacturing headquartered in Italy. This customer was already using our cloud-native Plex quality management system and has recently selected our on-prem MES software to digitize the manufacturing processes at a number of their global sites. This win not only demonstrates the stand-alone differentiation of our modular offerings, but also highlights the value from integration of our entire portfolio making it easier for customers to standardize their global operations.

資訊解決方案和互聯服務銷售額比上年增長 10%。有史以來最大的資訊解決方案勝利之一是與總部位於義大利的全球輪胎製造領導者 Prometeon Tyre 合作。該客戶已經在使用我們的雲端原生 Plex 品質管理系統，並且最近選擇了我們的本地 MES 軟體來數位化其全球多個站點的製造流程。這場勝利不僅證明了我們模組化產品的獨立差異化，而且還凸顯了我們整個產品組合整合的價值，使客戶能夠更輕鬆地標準化其全球營運。

Within Connected Services, we continue to grow our cybersecurity practice with Q4 sales growing 30% year-over-year. Our industrial cybersecurity software and expertise, along with differentiated partnerships on the IT security front are helping us grow our cybersecurity services into a business of well over $100 million this fiscal year with a significant portion of this being recurring revenue. Total annual recurring revenue grew 16% year-over-year. That's a good number, and ARR is a meaningful contributor to our future growth framework.

在互聯服務領域，我們持續發展網路安全實踐，第四季銷售額年增 30%。我們的工業網路安全軟體和專業知識，以及 IT 安全方面的差異化合作夥伴關係，正在幫助我們將網路安全服務發展成為本財年超過 1 億美元的業務，其中很大一部分是經常性收入。年度經常性收入總額年增 16%。這是一個不錯的數字，ARR 對我們未來的成長框架做出了有意義的貢獻。

Segment margin of 22.3% was in line with our expectations. Adjusted EPS of $3.64, which is a company record for quarterly earnings grew almost 20% year-over-year. Significantly improving lead times in our Q4 shipment overperformance contributed to rapid backlog reduction in the quarter. We are ending the year with over $4.1 billion in backlog, over 40% coverage of annual sales, which is still well above pre-pandemic levels. A return to superior customer service remains our highest priority.

22.3%的分部利潤率符合我們的預期。調整後每股收益為 3.64 美元，創公司季度獲利記錄，較去年同期成長近 20%。我們在第四季出貨表現優異，交貨時間顯著改善，導致本季積壓訂單迅速減少。截至今年底，我們的積壓訂單已超過 41 億美元，佔年銷售額的 40% 以上，仍遠高於疫情前的水準。恢復優質的客戶服務仍然是我們的首要任務。

Let's now turn to Slide 4 to review key highlights of our Q4 end market performance. Our discrete sales grew over 15% versus prior year. Within discrete, automotive sales were up 30% year-over-year, reflecting continued strength of our offerings in both electric vehicle and battery. Our EV business was close to 40% of our total automotive revenue in the quarter, growing double digits both year-over-year and sequentially. One of our strategic battery wins was with Nanotech Energy, a startup with new and innovative energy storage technologies. Nanotech has chosen Rockwell as their exclusive automation partner to build new battery Gigafactories.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 4 來回顧我們第四季度終端市場表現的主要亮點。我們的離散銷售額比去年增長了 15% 以上。在離散產品領域，汽車銷量年增 30%，反映出我們在電動車和電池領域產品的持續強勁。本季我們的電動車業務接近汽車總收入的 40%，較去年同期和季比均達到兩位數成長。我們在電池方面的策略性勝利之一是與 Nanotech Energy 合作，這是一家擁有新型和創新能源儲存技術的新創公司。 Nanotech 選擇羅克韋爾作為其獨家自動化合作夥伴來建造新的電池超級工廠。

Semiconductor sales grew high single digits. We continue to take share in facilities management, control system applications at major semiconductor companies across the globe. In addition to our existing portfolio, we continue to win and build out a strong funnel of advanced wafer transport solutions leveraging our independent car technology across customers' greenfield and brownfield projects. We are also participating in the rapid build-out of data centers to support cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

半導體銷售額成長高個位數。我們持續在全球主要半導體公司的設施管理、控制系統應用領域佔有份額。除了我們現有的產品組合之外，我們還利用我們在客戶的綠地和棕地專案中的獨立汽車技術，繼續贏得並建立強大的先進晶圓運輸解決方案。我們也參與資料中心的快速建設，以支援雲端運算和人工智慧。

Our control systems are used to control and optimize the environment and safety systems in these facilities and our recent Cubic acquisition extends our reach into the power distribution portion of data centers. We've seen some strategic wins in Asia and in the U.S. in the quarter with more to come. In our e-commerce and warehouse automation vertical, sales declined mid-single digits versus prior year. After several quarters of customer delays and cancellations in the e-commerce portion of this vertical, we're starting to see new investments, especially in North America, positioning us for low single-digit year-over-year growth in fiscal year '24.

我們的控制系統用於控制和優化這些設施中的環境和安全系統，我們最近收購的 Cubic 將我們的業務範圍擴展到了資料中心的配電部分。本季我們在亞洲和美國取得了一些戰略勝利，未來還會有更多勝利。在我們的電子商務和倉庫自動化垂直領域，銷售額與去年相比下降了中個位數。在該垂直領域的電子商務部分經歷了幾個季度的客戶延遲和取消之後，我們開始看到新的投資，特別是在北美，這使我們在 24 財年實現低個位數的同比增長。

Turning to our hybrid industries. Strong sales in this segment were paced by good growth in Food and Beverage, our largest customer vertical. Food and beverage sales grew low double digits versus prior year. In addition to continued cybersecurity and infrastructure modernization wins in this vertical, we had several wins in Q4 incorporating generative AI functionality where our digital services business is helping our CPG customers use real-time AI assistance as they develop new products, formulations and recipes.

轉向我們的混合產業。該細分市場的強勁銷售得益於我們最大的客戶垂直領域食品和飲料的良好成長。食品和飲料銷售額較上年增長兩位數。除了在這一垂直領域持續取得網路安全和基礎設施現代化方面的勝利外，我們在第四季度還取得了多項融合生成人工智慧功能的勝利，其中我們的數位服務業務正在幫助我們的CPG 客戶在開發新產品、配方和配方時使用即時人工智慧輔助。

Life Sciences sales grew mid-single digits in the quarter. This vertical is a great example of how we are delivering expanded customer value through a combination of software, hardware and digital services capabilities. This quarter, our plant PAX system was selected by BeiGene, a global biotechnology company developing innovative and affordable cancer medicines for their process control and environmental monitoring solutions at a greenfield site in New Jersey.

本季生命科學銷售額實現中個位數成長。這個垂直領域是我們如何透過軟體、硬體和數位服務能力的結合來提供更大的客戶價值的一個很好的例子。本季度，我們的工廠 PAX 系統被百濟神州選中，百濟神州是一家全球生物技術公司，為新澤西州新建工廠的製程管制和環境監測解決方案開發創新且價格實惠的癌症藥物。

Tire was up high teens in the quarter, with multiple wins across the globe, including the large software deal at Prometeon Tyre I mentioned earlier on the call. Moving to process. Sales in this industry segment grew over 25% year-over-year, led by strong growth in oil and gas, mining and metals. Oil and gas sales were up over 30% in the quarter. This growth was driven by a combination of digital oilfield solutions, including process safety and lift control in EMEA and Asia as well as several new carbon capture wins in North America.

Tire 在本季的股價上漲了兩位數，在全球範圍內取得了多場勝利，包括我之前在電話會議上提到的 Prometeon Tire 的大型軟體交易。轉向處理。在石油和天然氣、採礦和金屬強勁成長的帶動下，該行業細分市場的銷售額年增超過 25%。本季石油和天然氣銷售額成長了 30% 以上。這一增長是由數位油田解決方案組合推動的，包括歐洲、中東和非洲和亞洲的製程安全和提升控制，以及北美的幾項新的碳捕獲勝利。

We continue to grow our process industry footprint with a combination of Sensia and Rockwell oil and gas capabilities. We had a notable win this quarter at multitech's filtration engineers, an India headquartered global EPC company, working on onshore and offshore projects. This was a competitive DCS win for Rockwell with one of the largest government-owned oil and gas explorer and producers in India, and we are excited to partner with multitech as they increase their footprint in the U.S. and Middle East.

透過結合 Sensia 和羅克韋爾石油和天然氣能力，我們繼續擴大我們的製程工業足跡。本季我們在 multitech 的過濾工程師方面取得了顯著的勝利，這是一家總部位於印度的全球 EPC 公司，從事陸上和海上專案。對於羅克韋爾公司來說，這是一場具有競爭力的DCS 勝利，它是印度最大的政府擁有的石油和天然氣勘探商和生產商之一，我們很高興能與Multitech 合作，因為他們正在擴大在美國和中東的足跡。

Turning now to Slide 5 and our Q4 organic regional sales. Once again, our sales by region in Q4 and for the full year fiscal year '23 reflect the composition of our backlog rather than the underlying customer demand. Our full year orders in the Americas outperformed the rest of the world.

現在轉向幻燈片 5 和我們的第四季有機區域銷售。我們第四季和 23 財年全年的銷售額再次反映了我們積壓訂單的組成，而不是潛在的客戶需求。我們在美洲的全年訂單表現優於世界其他地區。

North America organic sales were up over 12% year-over-year. Both Latin America and EMEA sales grew over 20% in the quarter, and Asia Pacific was up over 31%. While we saw strong sales growth in China in fiscal year '23, we continue to see high order deferrals and cancellations in China.

北美有機銷售額年增超過 12%。本季拉丁美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額成長超過 20%，亞太地區成長超過 31%。雖然我們在 23 財年看到中國的銷售強勁成長，但我們仍然看到中國大量的訂單延期和取消。

Let's move to Slide 6, key highlights of fiscal year 2023. We had a record year of sales and earnings with our total sales exceeding $9 billion. We achieved this milestone ahead of the time frame we anticipated when we introduced our framework for accelerated profitable growth at Investor Day in 2019. Both reported and organic sales grew 17% this year, well above our original expectations. Information Solutions and Connected Services were up 9% year-over-year, reaching over $870 million, demonstrating our customers' accelerated adoption of new digital offerings. This is almost 3x what this figure was in 2018.

讓我們轉到投影片 6，這是 2023 財年的主要亮點。我們的銷售和收入創下了創紀錄的一年，總銷售額超過 90 億美元。我們在 2019 年投資者日推出加速利潤成長框架時提前實現了這一里程碑。今年報告銷售額和有機銷售額均成長了 17%，遠高於我們最初的預期。資訊解決方案和互聯服務年增 9%，達到超過 8.7 億美元，這表明我們的客戶正在加速採用新的數位產品。這幾乎是 2018 年這數字的 3 倍。

Total ARR grew 16% with strong growth in both our Software as a Service and recurring services offerings. Our strong operating performance resulted in 140 basis points of segment margin expansion versus prior year. Adjusted EPS of $12.12 was up 28%. We generated a record $1.2 billion of free cash flow this year. The much better free cash flow conversion in the quarter was primarily driven by improved working capital. This represents 86% free cash flow conversion for the year, and Nick will provide more detail in his remarks. And last but not least, we continue to invest in key areas of growth. In the last few months, we made 2 acquisitions: ClearPath and Verve, to further expand our value and accelerate top line growth.

由於我們的軟體即服務和經常性服務產品的強勁成長，總 ARR 成長了 16%。我們強勁的經營業績導致部門利潤率比上年擴大了 140 個基點。調整後每股收益為 12.12 美元，成長 28%。今年我們創造了創紀錄的 12 億美元自由現金流。本季自由現金流轉換的大幅改善主要是由於營運資本的改善。這代表了今年 86% 的自由現金流轉換，尼克將在他的演講中提供更多細節。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們繼續投資於關鍵成長領域。在過去的幾個月裡，我們進行了兩次收購：ClearPath 和 Verve，以進一步擴大我們的價值並加速營收成長。

While we talk more about both investments at our upcoming Investor Day, let's turn to Slide 7 and take a few minutes to share why we are excited about the impact ClearPath we'll have on both our near and longer-term growth. As we've shared with you earlier in the quarter, ClearPath is a leader in autonomous mobile robots or AMRs, serving customers across many industry segments. Their differentiated portfolio of auto brand AMRs is focused on the production logistics space where customers traditionally have relied on manual labor to move raw materials and subassemblies to the right place on production lines and also to move finished goods to shipping docks and warehouses.

雖然我們在即將到來的投資者日更多地討論這兩項投資，但讓我們轉向幻燈片 7，花幾分鐘時間分享為什麼我們對 ClearPath 對我們近期和長期增長的影響感到興奮。正如我們在本季早些時候與您分享的那樣，ClearPath 是自主移動機器人或 AMR 的領導者，為許多行業領域的客戶提供服務。他們的差異化汽車品牌 AMR 產品組合專注於生產物流領域，在該領域，客戶傳統上依靠體力勞動將原材料和組件運送到生產線上的正確位置，並將成品運送到裝運碼頭和倉庫。

These workflows have been identified by many automotive companies, semiconductor fabs and consumer packaged goods suppliers as their top opportunity for efficiency and increased safety. Given the workforce shortage and skills gap, along with the overall move to more autonomous operations, the market for industrial mobile robots and factory floor applications is expected to grow over 30% for the next 5 years, and we believe no one is better positioned to capitalize on this growth than Rockwell and ClearPath.

許多汽車公司、半導體工廠和消費品供應商已將這些工作流程視為提高效率和提高安全性的最佳機會。考慮到勞動力短缺和技能差距，以及整體轉向更加自動化的操作，工業移動機器人和工廠車間應用市場預計在未來 5 年內將增長 30% 以上，我們相信沒有人比這更適合比Rockwell 和ClearPath 更能利用這種增長。

Together, we are the only end-to-end provider of autonomous operations in this space. We'll bring together our FactoryTalk design capabilities to configure and simulate the production environment including these AMRs integrate with our cloud-native operations management software like Plex and Fix and optimize the production process with our logics and embedded AI capabilities, all with 1 technology platform. This is an important milestone for Rockwell, and you will see more of what this can do for industrial operations at Automation Fair and Investor Day next week. We closed this acquisition in early October and expect it to contribute about a point of growth to our top line performance in fiscal year '24.

我們共同成為該領域唯一提供自主營運的端到端提供者。我們將匯集我們的FactoryTalk 設計功能來配置和模擬生產環境，包括將這些AMR 與我們的Plex 和Fix 等雲端原生營運管理軟體集成，並利用我們的邏輯和嵌入式AI 功能優化生產流程，所有這些都透過1 個技術平台進行。這對羅克韋爾來說是一個重要的里程碑，您將在下週的自動化博覽會和投資者日上看到這對工業營運的更多影響。我們在 10 月初完成了此次收購，預計它將為我們 24 財年的營收業績帶來約一個成長點。

As we move to Slide 8, let's review our fiscal 2024 outlook. Consistent with what we shared with you on our last earnings call, our orders continued to decrease through fiscal 2023, reaching what we believe to be a trough in our fourth quarter. Orders for the full year were $8.2 billion. We expect fiscal year '24 orders to increase low single digits year-over-year. Order growth is expected to be highest in the Americas Asia orders are expected to be down year-over-year due to China. However, our relatively low exposure to China helps reduce the impact on our global results. The lead times on our products have largely returned to prepandemic levels with the remainder of our SKUs getting back to normal lead times around the end of our fiscal Q1. This addresses the final golden screw constraints to shipping past due backlog and clearing committed inventory at our distributors.

當我們轉到投影片 8 時，讓我們回顧一下我們的 2024 財年展望。與我們在上次財報電話會議上與您分享的情況一致，我們的訂單在 2023 財年持續減少，並在第四季度達到了我們認為的低谷。全年訂單額為 82 億美元。我們預計 24 財年的訂單量將年增率較低的個位數。美洲訂單成長預計最高，而由於中國的原因，亞洲訂單預計將年減。然而，我們對中國的曝險相對較低，有助於減少對我們全球業績的影響。我們產品的交貨時間已基本恢復到大流行前的水平，我們的其餘 SKU 在第一財季末左右恢復到正常交貨時間。這解決了運輸逾期積壓訂單和清理分銷商承諾庫存的最終金螺絲限制。

Based on our analysis of lead time reduction by product line, distributor inventory and underlying demand at our largest machine builders and end users, we expect orders to begin to recover in Q1 and build in Q2. Customers continue to move forward with plans for both greenfield and brownfield capacity investments and also with resilience projects requiring increased cybersecurity and digitization. In the U.S., we've been adding commercial resources specifically focused on projects that are incented by recent stimulus authorized by legislation, including infrastructure, IRA and the Chips and Science Act. This team won new business during the second half of fiscal year '23 with a strong funnel of additional projects expected to close in fiscal year '24. Our fiscal '24 guidance assumes total reported sales of about $9.4 billion at the midpoint. Organic sales are projected to grow 1% at the midpoint.

根據我們對產品線、分銷商庫存以及最大的機器製造商和最終用戶的潛在需求的交貨時間縮短的分析，我們預計訂單將在第一季開始恢復，並在第二季度增加。客戶繼續推進綠地和棕地容量投資計劃以及需要增強網路安全和數位化的彈性項目。在美國，我們一直在增加商業資源，專門關注最近立法授權的刺激計劃所激勵的項目，包括基礎設施、愛爾蘭共和軍以及晶片和科學法案。該團隊在 23 財年下半年贏得了新業務，預計將在 24 財年完成一系列強大的額外項目。我們的 24 財年指引假設報告的總銷售額中點約為 94 億美元。有機銷售額預計將成長 1%。

Currency is expected to increase sales by 1.5% and acquisitions are slated to contribute about 1 point of growth. We are projecting ARR to have another year of double-digit growth. Segment margin is expected to increase slightly versus prior year. Nick will cover this in more detail later. Adjusted EPS is slated to grow 5% year-over-year at the midpoint. At a high level, we expect strong conversion on slightly higher year-over-year organic sales. Good performance in reducing backlog during Q4 of fiscal '23 pulled forward about $100 million of revenue and $0.25 of earnings. ClearPath is expected to reduce fiscal year '24 adjusted earnings by a similar amount. Let me turn it over to Nick to provide more detail on our Q4 performance and financial outlook for fiscal '24. Nick?

預計銷售額將成長 1.5%，收購預計將貢獻約 1 個百分點的成長。我們預計 ARR 將再次實現兩位數成長。預計分部利潤率將較上年略有增加。尼克稍後將更詳細地介紹這一點。調整後每股收益預計將年增 5%。在較高水準上，我們預期有機銷售額較去年同期略有成長將帶來強勁的轉換。 23 財年第四季在減少積壓方面的良好表現拉動了約 1 億美元的收入和 0.25 美元的收益。 ClearPath 預計將減少 24 財年調整後收益類似的金額。讓我將其交給尼克，以提供有關我們第四季度業績和 24 財年財務前景的更多詳細資訊。缺口？

Thank you, Blake, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 9, fourth quarter key financial information. Fourth quarter reported sales were up 20.5% over last year. Q4 organic sales were up 17.7%, and acquisitions contributed 140 basis points to growth. Currency translation increased sales by 140 basis points. About 6 points of our organic growth came from price. Segment operating margin was 22.3% compared to 23.3% a year ago. The year-over-year decrease reflects the impact of higher sales volume and higher price being more than offset by higher incentive compensation, investment spend and restructuring actions.

謝謝你，布萊克，大家早安。我將從幻燈片 9 開始，第四季度的關鍵財務資訊。第四季銷售額比去年同期成長 20.5%。第四季有機銷售額成長 17.7%，收購為成長貢獻了 140 個基點。貨幣換算使銷售額增加了 140 個基點。我們的有機成長大約有 6 個百分點來自價格。部門營業利益率為 22.3%，而去年同期為 23.3%。年減反映出銷售量增加和價格上漲的影響被更高的激勵性薪酬、投資支出和重組行動所抵消。

Adjusted EPS of $3.64 was above our expectations, primarily due to higher organic sales, partially offset by higher investment spend and incentive compensation. We also took a restructuring charge in the quarter of just over $20 million, which is expected to yield more than $40 million of benefit on an annualized basis. All in, adjusted EPS grew 20% versus prior year. I'll cover a year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge on a later slide. The adjusted effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 17%, slightly below the prior year rate. Free cash flow of $776 million, was $417 million higher than prior year. Our strong free cash flow generation in the quarter was driven by higher income and reductions in working capital. As you know, due to supply chain volatility, we have seen working capital balances grow over the last couple of years, and we are pleased to see our actions starting to bring working capital down.

調整後每股收益為 3.64 美元，高於我們的預期，這主要是由於有機銷售額的增加，但部分被投資支出和激勵薪酬的增加所抵消。我們還在本季度承擔了略高於 2000 萬美元的重組費用，預計按年化計算將產生超過 4000 萬美元的收益。總而言之，調整後每股盈餘較上年成長 20%。我將在後面的幻燈片中介紹逐年調整的 EPS 橋。第四季調整後有效稅率為17%，略低於去年同期水準。自由現金流為 7.76 億美元，比前一年增加 4.17 億美元。本季我們強勁的自由現金流是由收入增加和營運資本減少所推動的。如您所知，由於供應鏈波動，我們看到營運資金餘額在過去幾年中有所增長，我們很高興看到我們的行動開始降低營運資金。

One additional item not shown on the slide, we repurchased approximately 200,000 shares in the quarter at a cost of $55 million. On September 30, $900 million remained available under our repurchase authorization. Slide 10 provides the sales and margin performance overview of our 3 operating segments. Like discussed our top line performance in the quarter, so I'll focus on our margin performance. Given our pay-for-performance culture and strong results, all of our business segments saw higher bonus expense this year. In Q4, this represented between 200 and 300 basis points of year-over-year margin headwind for each of the segments. Intelligent Devices margin decreased by 100 basis points year-over-year and was up 450 basis points sequentially because of higher volume. Within intelligent devices, we are investing in our next-generation portfolio of drives and IO.

幻燈片中未顯示的另一項是，我們在本季以 5,500 萬美元的成本回購了大約 200,000 股股票。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的回購授權仍有 9 億美元可供使用。投影片 10 提供了我們 3 個營運部門的銷售和利潤績效概覽。就像討論我們本季的營收表現一樣，所以我將重點放在我們的利潤率表現。鑑於我們的績效工資文化和強勁的業績，今年我們所有業務部門的獎金支出都增加了。第四季度，每個細分市場的利潤率年減了 200 至 300 個基點。智慧型裝置利潤率較去年同期下降 100 個基點，但由於銷量增加而較上季上升 450 個基點。在智慧型設備領域，我們正在投資下一代驅動器和 IO 產品組合。

Software and control margin of 33.5% decreased 100 basis points year-over-year. Our strong Q4 margin was driven by 25% year-over-year top line growth. This is the segment with the highest share of incremental investments as we continue to invest in next-generation logic performance and our cloud-native software portfolio. Life cycle services margin was 8.4% and was under the 10% exit rate we anticipated. In addition to a higher bonus, this segment was the most impacted by the restructuring charges taken in the quarter. Absent those 2 items, the margin for this segment came in as we planned. Before moving to the adjusted EPS walk, I'd like to talk about our Sensia joint venture. Challenged by the pandemic and global supply chain constraint, this joint venture underperformed our initial expectations for 2020 through 2023.

軟體和控制利潤率為 33.5%，年減 100 個基點。我們強勁的第四季利潤率得益於 25% 的年收入成長。隨著我們繼續投資下一代邏輯效能和雲端原生軟體產品組合，這是增量投資份額最高的細分市場。生命週期服務利潤率為 8.4%，低於我們預期的 10% 退出率。除了較高的獎金外，該部門受本季重組費用的影響最大。如果沒有這兩項，該細分市場的利潤就如我們計劃的那樣。在談到調整後的 EPS 步行之前，我想談談我們的 Sensia 合資企業。受到疫情和全球供應鏈限制的挑戰，該合資企業2020年至2023年的表現低於我們最初的預期。

Our updated outlook, which includes this lower base, resulted in a partial goodwill impairment in the fourth quarter. Sensia's onetime items and supply chain-related inefficiencies in recent quarters are largely behind us. Sensia delivered double-digit top line growth in fiscal '23 and has strong orders growth, as Blake mentioned. Going forward, we expect profitable double-digit growth from Sensia.

我們更新的前景（其中包括較低的基數）導致第四季度出現部分商譽減損。在最近幾個季度，Sensia 的一次性產品和供應鏈相關的低效率問題基本上已經過去了。正如 Blake 所提到的，Sensia 在 23 財年實現了兩位數的營收成長，訂單成長強勁。展望未來，我們預計 Sensia 的獲利將有兩位數成長。

The next Slide 11 provides the adjusted EPS walk from Q4 fiscal '22 to Q4 fiscal '23. Core performance was up $1.05 on a 17.7% organic sales increase. Incentive compensation was a $0.45 headwind. This year-over-year increase reflects the higher bonus payout this year versus a below-target payout last year. The year-over-year impact from currency was a $0.05 headwind, offset by a $0.10 tailwind from interest expense. Share count and tax rate were each immaterial to the year-over-year change in EPS this quarter.

下一張投影片 11 提供了從 22 財年第四季到 23 財年第四季的調整後每股盈餘。核心表現成長 1.05 美元，有機銷售額成長 17.7%。激勵補償是 0.45 美元的阻力。這一同比增長反映出今年的獎金支付高於去年的目標支付。貨幣帶來的同比影響為 0.05 美元的逆風，被利息支出的 0.10 美元的順風所抵消。股票數量和稅率對於本季每股盈餘的同比變化並不重要。

Slide 12 provides key financial information for the full fiscal year 2023. Reported sales grew 17% to $9.1 billion, including over 1 point coming from acquisitions. Currency negatively impacted sales by approximately $100 million or 1.4 points. Organic sales were up 17%. Full year segment margin of 21.3% increased 140 basis points over last year. The increase was due to higher sales partially offset by higher investment spend and higher incentive compensation. We accelerated growth investments for fiscal '23 above our original expectations as our revenue outperformed. Adjusted EPS was up 28%, a detailed year-over-year adjusted EPS walk can be found in the appendix for your reference.

投影片 12 提供了 2023 財年的關鍵財務資訊。報告銷售額成長 17%，達到 91 億美元，其中來自收購的銷售額成長超過 1 個百分點。貨幣對銷售額產生了約 1 億美元或 1.4 個百分點的負面影響。有機銷售額成長了 17%。全年分部利潤率為 21.3%，比去年增加 140 個基點。這一增長是由於銷售額的增加被投資支出和激勵薪酬的增加所部分抵消。由於我們的營收表現出色，我們加快了 23 財年的成長投資速度，超出了我們最初的預期。調整後每股盈餘成長28%，詳細的年比調整後每股盈餘可在附錄中找到，供您參考。

As discussed earlier, free cash flow conversion was ahead of our expectations, with free cash flow conversion of 86% in fiscal '23. Free cash flow increased $532 million from fiscal '22. The increase in free cash flow was driven by higher pretax income. Working capital peaked in Q3 at 24% of sales and came down to 20% in Q4. Return on invested capital was 20.9% for fiscal '23 and 570 basis points better than the prior year, primarily driven by higher net income.

如前所述，自由現金流轉換超出了我們的預期，23 財年自由現金流轉換率為 86%。自由現金流較 22 財年增加 5.32 億美元。自由現金流的增加是由稅前收入增加所推動的。營運資本在第三季達到峰值，佔銷售額的 24%，並在第四季下降至 20%。 23 財年的投資資本報酬率為 20.9%，比前一年好 570 個基點，主要是因為淨利增加所致。

For the year, we deployed about $850 million of capital towards dividends and share repurchases and made inorganic investments of $170 million. We also paid down debt by about $870 million. Our capital structure and liquidity remains strong. This strength is what allowed us to fund our acquisitions in the first quarter of fiscal year '24 without any new long-term debt.

今年，我們部署了約 8.5 億美元的資本用於股息和股票回購，並進行了 1.7 億美元的無機投資。我們也償還了約 8.7 億美元的債務。我們的資本結構和流動性仍然強勁。這種優勢使我們能夠在 24 財年第一季為收購提供資金，而無需任何新的長期債務。

Before we turn to our fiscal '24 guidance, we want to update you on Q4 orders and our current thinking as we look forward. In Q4, orders decreased quicker than we expected as machine builders and distributors continue to work through inventory in response to our rapidly improving lead times. As Blake said, we believe Q4 was the trough and orders in October support that view. We expect fiscal year '24 orders to grow low single digits with an order profile similar to what we discussed in Q3.

在我們討論 24 財年指導之前，我們希望向您介紹第四季度訂單的最新情況以及我們當前的展望。第四季度，訂單下降速度快於我們的預期，因為機器製造商和分銷商繼續處理庫存，以應對我們迅速縮短的交貨時間。正如布萊克所說，我們認為第四季是低谷，十月份的訂單支持了這一觀點。我們預計 24 財年的訂單將以低個位數成長，訂單狀況與我們在第三季討論的情況類似。

Let's now move on to the next slide, 13, Guidance for fiscal '24. In fiscal year '24, we are focusing on growing earnings even in a year of low top line growth. At the same time, we'll continue to invest in our own resilience, in our most important innovation projects to extend our differentiation and in customer-facing resources to capitalize on continued strong secular demand for automation. We expect our reported sales growth to range from 0.5% to 6.5%. We expect organic sales growth in the range of negative 2% to positive 4% and we expect acquisitions to add 100 basis points to growth in addition to a full year currency tailwind of 150 basis points.

現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片，即 13，《24 財年指南》。在 24 財年，即使在營收成長較低的一年，我們仍將專注於獲利成長。同時，我們將繼續投資於我們自身的韌性、最重要的創新項目，以擴大我們的差異化，以及面向客戶的資源，以利用對自動化持續強勁的長期需求。我們預計報告的銷售額成長範圍為 0.5% 至 6.5%。我們預計有機銷售成長將在負 2% 到正 4% 的範圍內，除了全年 150 個基點的匯率推動外，我們預計收購還將為成長增加 100 個基點。

From a segment perspective, given our exceptionally strong backlog execution in software and control that resulted in 25% top line growth in fiscal year '23, we expect this segment to see the lowest growth in fiscal year '24. We expect positive organic sales growth in both our Intelligent Devices and life cycle services segments. We expect price will be a positive contributor to growth for the year. Segment margin will be around 21.5%, up slightly from fiscal year '23. This includes a 60 basis point headwind coming from the acquisitions of ClearPath and Verve. Verve's impact to adjusted EPS is relatively flat in fiscal year '24. ClearPath will reduce earnings per share in fiscal year '24 by $0.25 on an unlevered basis.

從細分市場的角度來看，鑑於我們在軟體和控制方面異常強勁的積壓執行，導致 23 財年的收入增長了 25%，我們預計該細分市場將在 24 財年看到最低的增長。我們預計智慧型設備和生命週期服務領域的有機銷售將實現積極成長。我們預計價格將為今年的成長做出積極貢獻。部門利潤率將在 21.5% 左右，比 23 財年略有上升。其中包括收購 ClearPath 和 Verve 帶來的 60 個基點的逆風。 Verve 對調整後每股盈餘的影響在 24 財年相對穩定。 ClearPath 將在 24 財年的無槓桿基礎上將每股收益減少 0.25 美元。

This impact reflects continued R&D and commercialization investments as well as integration expenses. We expect the ClearPath acquisition to become accretive to earnings in fiscal year '26. We expect the full year adjusted effective tax rate to be around 17%. Our adjusted EPS guidance range is $12 to $13.50. We expect full year fiscal '24 free cash flow conversion of about 100% of adjusted income.

這種影響反映了持續的研發和商業化投資以及整合費用。我們預計 ClearPath 收購將增加 26 財年的收益。我們預計全年調整後有效稅率約為17%。我們調整後的 EPS 指導範圍為 12 美元至 13.50 美元。我們預計 24 財年全年自由現金流轉換約為調整後營收的 100%。

This reflects our expectation that inventory days on hand will drop to 125 days by the end of fiscal year '24 compared to approximately 140 days of inventory we had at the end of fiscal year '23. Our outlook for cash tax payments is higher due to a tax payment for realized capital gains on the sale of our stake in PTC and a higher tax and higher tax payments required under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. We expect free cash flow conversion in the first half to be well below 100%, mostly tied to the timing of our incentive compensation payout and income tax payments.

這反映出我們預計到 24 財年末現有庫存天數將降至 125 天，而 23 財年末庫存天數約為 140 天。由於出售我們所持 PTC 股份所實現的資本利得需繳納稅款，以及《減稅和就業法案》要求的更高稅款和更高的稅款，我們對現金納稅的前景較高。我們預計上半年的自由現金流轉換率將遠低於 100%，這主要與我們的激勵薪資支付和所得稅支付的時間有關。

From a calendarization perspective, we expect year-over-year organic sales to grow in the low single digits in Q1, followed by sequential growth in sales volume as we progress through the year. As a result of our strong Q4 backlog performance, volumes will be down from Q4 to Q1. Given this dynamic, Q1 is projected to be our lowest margin quarter with sequential improvement throughout the year.

從日曆的角度來看，我們預計第一季的年比有機銷售額將以較低的個位數成長，隨後隨著全年的進展，銷量將出現環比增長。由於我們第四季的積壓表現強勁，銷售量將從第四季下降到第一季。鑑於這種動態，預計第一季將是我們利潤率最低的季度，全年將連續改善。

For the full year, let's turn to Slide 14, for our adjusted EPS walk. Our core is expected to have a modest positive impact on earnings of about $0.05 from fiscal year '23 to fiscal year '24. Structural productivity from our Q4 actions is expected to increase earnings by $0.25 while increased growth investments will reduce earnings by $0.55. Incentive compensation for fiscal year '23 was above target due to strong performance. So this represents a tailwind of $0.85 for fiscal '24.

對於全年，讓我們轉向幻燈片 14，了解調整後的 EPS 變化。從 23 財年到 24 財年，我們的核心預計將對收益產生約 0.05 美元的適度正面影響。我們第四季行動的結構性生產力預計將使收益增加 0.25 美元，而成長投資的增加將使收益減少 0.55 美元。由於業績強勁，23 財年的激勵薪酬高於目標。因此，這對 24 財年來說意味著 0.85 美元的順風車。

Acquisitions will be diluted by $0.25. Our 150 basis points of sales growth from currency will add $0.25 and the net of interest, tax and shares will contribute about $0.05. A few additional comments on fiscal '24 guidance. Corporate and other expense is expected to be around $120 million. Net interest expense for fiscal '24 is expected to be about $115 million. We're assuming average diluted shares outstanding of 115.3 million shares. We expect to deploy between $300 million and $500 million to share repurchases during the year. With that, I'll turn it back over to Blake for some closing remarks before we start Q&A.

收購將稀釋 0.25 美元。貨幣銷售額成長 150 個基點將增加 0.25 美元，扣除利息、稅金和股票後將貢獻約 0.05 美元。關於 24 財年指導的一些補充評論。公司及其他費用預計約為 1.2 億美元。 24 財年的淨利息支出預計約為 1.15 億美元。我們假設平均稀釋後已發行股票為 1.153 億股。我們預計年內將部署 3 億至 5 億美元用於股票回購。在我們開始問答之前，我將把它轉回給布萊克，讓他做一些結束語。

Thanks, Nick. As I reflect on 2023, it's clear our continued investments in talent and technology are paying off. I'm proud of how our tight knit organization has navigated through a dynamic environment and helped us deliver a record year of sales and earnings exceeding expectations. Looking at the year ahead of us, we are aware of the macroeconomic backdrop and the geopolitical situation that continues to change every day.

謝謝，尼克。當我回顧 2023 年時，很明顯，我們對人才和技術的持續投資正在獲得回報。我為我們緊密的組織如何在充滿活力的環境中駕馭並幫助我們實現創紀錄的銷售和超出預期的收入感到自豪。展望未來的一年，我們意識到宏觀經濟背景和地緣政治局勢每天都在持續變化。

You heard us talk today about focusing and optimizing our workforce for further productivity so that we can continue investing in key areas of growth. Our customers rely on our continued innovation and differentiation to provide energy and critical infrastructure security across the globe to help bring new life-saving drugs to market and to use leading technology to augment and enable their workforce. We look forward to seeing a lot of you at our Investor Day in Boston next week where we will be sharing a long-term business strategy and some of the most exciting developments across our key markets and applications. Aijana will now begin the Q&A session.

您今天聽到我們談論關注和優化我們的員工隊伍以提高生產力，以便我們能夠繼續投資於關鍵成長領域。我們的客戶依靠我們持續的創新和差異化在全球範圍內提供能源和關鍵基礎設施安全，幫助將新的救生藥物推向市場，並使用領先的技術來增強和支持他們的勞動力。我們期待下週在波士頓舉行的投資者日見到大家，屆時我們將分享長期業務策略以及我們關鍵市場和應用領域的一些最令人興奮的發展。 Aijana 現在將開始問答環節。

We would like to get to as many of you as possible, so please limit yourself to one question and a quick follow-up. [Abbi] let's take our first question.

我們希望與盡可能多的人聯繫，因此請僅限於一個問題並快速跟進。 [Abbi] 讓我們來回答第一個問題。

We will take our first question from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們將回答 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis 提出的第一個問題。

A lot here, and I'm glad you're doing the analyst -- the Investor Day because I think there's a lot to dig in here. But until we get there, can you give us a little bit more color on the China comments just around delays and cancellations. It's not a shock given what we're reading, but maybe a little bit more granularity on what you're seeing there.

這裡有很多東西，我很高興你在投資者日做分析師，因為我認為這裡有很多東西要挖掘。但在我們到達那裡之前，您能否給我們更多關於中國有關延誤和取消的評論。考慮到我們正在閱讀的內容，這並不令人震驚，但也許您所看到的內容更加細緻。

Sure. So just for context, China is about 6% of our worldwide sales. So big manufacturing economy, but relatively low exposure for Rockwell there. And we saw very strong sales in China for the year. But in China, the orders were lower, and that is the source of the cancellations that we did see, while our worldwide cancellations are roughly in line with what we've been seeing, China is the highest component of that. And I would say it's broad-based. It's not one particular industry. We still see wins in investments in areas like EV, but the distributors that most of our products go to market through in China still have relatively high inventories, and they're working that off.

當然。僅供參考，中國約占我們全球銷售額的 6%。製造業經濟規模如此之大，但羅克韋爾在那裡的曝光度相對較低。今年我們在中國的銷售非常強勁。但在中國，訂單量較低，這就是我們確實看到的取消訂單的來源，雖然我們在全球範圍內的取消訂單與我們所看到的大致一致，但中國是其中最高的部分。我想說它的基礎廣泛。這不是某一特定行業。我們仍然看到電動車等領域的投資取得了勝利，但我們的大部分產品在中國進入市場的分銷商仍然擁有相對較高的庫存，他們正在努力解決這個問題。

Okay. That's helpful. And you mentioned the goodwill impairment on Sensia, -- but it looks like the next few years, the outlook there is pretty darn good. How do you kind of pair that up and just kind of -- I would imagine you don't take it too lightly when you take a goodwill impairment. So, I'll just have to know (inaudible).

好的。這很有幫助。您提到了 Sensia 的商譽減值，但看起來未來幾年的前景非常好。你如何將其結合起來，我想當你考慮商譽減損時，你不會太輕視它。所以，我只需要知道（聽不清楚）。

Sure, Scott. So we launched the entity with at the time, (inaudible) a few months before the pandemic. So that was in 2019, and the lower base that resulted from COVID shutdowns and subsequent supply chain shortages, along with the refinement of some of the original mix assumptions caused us to take the impairment. We've changed out the management team at Sensia and we've seen the last couple of quarters of encouraging improvement -- we have great orders, good backlog and improving profitability. And so we expect over the next few years that Sensia will actually be quite a large contributor to the improved profitability in life cycle services.

當然，斯科特。因此，我們在大流行前幾個月（聽不清楚）推出了該實體。那是在 2019 年，由於新冠疫情導致的停工和隨後的供應鏈短缺導致基數較低，再加上一些原始組合假設的完善，導致我們接受了減值。我們更換了 Sensia 的管理團隊，並且在過去幾個季度中我們看到了令人鼓舞的改善——我們有大量訂單、良好的積壓訂單和不斷提高的盈利能力。因此，我們預計在未來幾年中，Sensia 實際上將為提高生命週期服務的獲利能力做出相當大的貢獻。

Yes. I would assume that too. Okay. I'll pass it on.

是的。我也這麼認為。好的。我會把它傳遞下去。

And we will take our next question from Andy Kaplowitz with Citi.

我們將回答花旗銀行安迪卡普洛維茨 (Andy Kaplowitz) 提出的下一個問題。

Like, just focusing on your guidance of low single-digit order growth in Fy '24 and your confidence of a trough in orders in Q4 '23. Could you give us more color in terms of what gives you that confidence? You mentioned orders in October are supporting your view. Maybe you could elaborate on what you are seeing. And then obviously, there have been many conversations regarding mega projects and where we are in that cycle. Do you see your orders being more lumpy centered around mega projects in FY '24? And what are the verticals that they're most likely to come from?

就像，只專注於您對 24 財年低個位數訂單成長的指導以及您對 23 年第 4 季訂單觸底的信心。您能給我們更多關於什麼帶給您信心的資訊嗎？你提到10月份的訂單支持了你的觀點。也許你可以詳細說明你所看到的。顯然，關於大型專案以及我們所處的周期有很多對話。您是否認為 24 財年以大型專案為中心的訂單更加不穩定？他們最有可能來自哪些垂直領域？

Sure. Thanks, Andy. So first of all, in terms of the orders development, we saw orders ramp up throughout Q4 and then we saw October orders up sequentially from that and supportive of our view that Q4 was the trough. We expect orders to continue recovering throughout Q1 and building in Q2. So that's the view in terms of the orders development, and that's based on what we're seeing, what I just described as well as direct discussions with our end users and machine builders that have the largest contribution to our business.

當然。謝謝，安迪。首先，就訂單發展而言，我們看到第四季度的訂單量有所增加，然後我們看到 10 月份的訂單量依次增加，這支持了我們認為第四季度是低潮的觀點。我們預計第一季訂單將繼續恢復，並在第二季繼續增加。這就是訂單開發方面的觀點，這是基於我們所看到的、我剛才描述的以及與對我們業務貢獻最大的最終用戶和機器製造商的直接討論。

So we went and did a detailed analysis of their CapEx expectations, their OpEx expectations, what projects that we have the opportunities with. And that, coupled with our own personal views, and with our distributor feedback are all supportive of this shape of the order recovery curve. In terms of the mega projects, I don't know that that's going to contribute so much to the lumpiness. I think it's going to be a positive additional amount of business that builds throughout fiscal year '24 and beyond. The majority of the projects that we're tracking, and we're tracking literally hundreds of projects that are incented by some of the recent stimulus, the majority of those projects have not made a decision or have not released the automation equipment.

因此，我們詳細分析了他們的資本支出預期、營運支出預期以及我們有機會參與哪些項目。再加上我們個人的觀點以及經銷商的回饋，都支持訂單恢復曲線的這種形狀。就大型專案而言，我不知道這會造成如此大的混亂。我認為這將是整個 24 財年及以後建立的積極的額外業務量。我們正在追蹤的大多數項目，實際上我們正在追蹤數百個受近期刺激措施推動的項目，其中大多數項目尚未做出決定或尚未發布自動化設備。

So when you look at those projects, certain equipment which would probably include switchgear, things like that, would be led earlier in the project cycle with automation to follow after that.

因此，當您查看這些項目時，某些可能包括開關設備之類的設備將在專案週期的早期進行引導，然後再進行自動化。

So we think that we're still in the early innings with respect to those mega projects and our tracking processes and our early wins are very encouraging.

因此，我們認為我們仍處於這些大型專案的早期階段，我們的追蹤流程和我們的早期勝利非常令人鼓舞。

Very helpful, Blake. And Nick, maybe just going over your margin expectation a little more for the segments in '24. You already answered Scott's question on Sensia. But what's your confidence level that we do see a step up in '24 and lifecycle services, and then particularly in intelligent devices. Obviously, that segment has had, let's call it, some perturbation from supply chain. Do you see a more normal environment and improvements in '24 in that segment?

非常有幫助，布萊克。尼克，也許只是稍微超出了您對 24 年細分市場的利潤預期。您已經回答了 Scott 關於 Sensia 的問題。但是，您對我們確實看到 24 小時服務和生命週期服務，尤其是在智慧型裝置方面的進步的信心程度如何？顯然，這個細分市場受到了供應鏈的一些幹擾。您是否認為 24 年該領域的環境更加正常並且有所改善？

Yes. In terms of expectations by segment for fiscal year '24, we do expect that life cycle services will be the most significant year-on-year margin expander. And to answer your question, we are highly confident in that based on the actions that we have taken in '23 and based on the outlook we have for that business in '24.

是的。就 24 財年各細分市場的預期而言，我們確實預期生命週期服務將成為最重要的年比利潤成長因素。為了回答你的問題，基於我們在 23 年採取的行動以及我們對該業務在 24 年的展望，我們對此非常有信心。

On the opposite side, software and control, we saw outstanding growth in fiscal year '23 as we had strong execution on our backlog, and we expect that business to be the one with the lowest organic growth, and then that will translate into lower year-on-year margin in our software and control business, primarily driven by that lower growth -- and it happens to also be the segment where we're putting the majority of our incremental investments.

另一方面，軟體和控制領域，我們在23 財年看到了出色的成長，因為我們對積壓訂單執行力很強，我們預計該業務將成為有機成長最低的業務，然後這將轉化為較低的年份我們的軟體和控制業務的年比利潤率主要是由較低的成長所推動的——而且它恰好也是我們投入大部分增量投資的領域。

From an intelligent devices perspective, that's one where we expect the margins year-on-year to be flat to up slightly. And that is with the impact of ClearPath in there. ClearPath is for the segment alone, about a 100 basis point headwind, and that will be impacting throughout the year, but we'll definitely be seeing that impact in Q1 in intelligent devices. And the actions that we've been doing in intelligent devices around our productivity and our investments in products. We're -- that's what's leading us to expect margins to be flat to up slightly.

從智慧型設備的角度來看，我們預計年比利潤率將持平或略有上升。這就是 ClearPath 的影響。 ClearPath 僅針對該細分市場，大約有 100 個基點的逆風，這將影響全年，但我們肯定會在第一季在智慧型裝置中看到這種影響。以及我們圍繞我們的生產力和產品投資在智慧設備方面所做的行動。這就是我們預計利潤率將持平或略有上升的原因。

We will take our next question from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

我們將回答垂直研究傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague）提出的下一個問題。

I just wanted to come back to kind of orders and backlog. I'm just kind of confused by the comment that orders ramped during Q4, right? I mean the ending backlog at $4.1 billion, you were guiding $4.5 million to $5 million. I know you pulled forward $100 million in sales, right? But maybe just bridge us on what happened other than that sales pull forward? How much of it was cancellations versus just kind of regular way order normalization, if there's a way to do that?

我只是想回到訂單和積壓訂單的情況。我只是對第四季度訂單激增的評論感到有點困惑，對嗎？我的意思是，最終積壓金額為 41 億美元，您當時指導的金額為 450 萬至 500 萬美元。我知道您的銷售額提前了 1 億美元，對嗎？但也許只是讓我們了解除了銷售成長之外還發生了什麼？如果有辦法做到這一點，其中有多少是取消的，而不是常規方式的訂單標準化？

Sure. Let me make a couple of comments, Jeff, and then Nick may have some to add as well. So we saw orders increasing if you look at beginning of the quarter of Q4 to the end, we saw orders exit at a higher rate than at the beginning of Q4, and then with a good uptick from that sequentially in October. So that was the ramp we were talking about and why we believe that Q4 was the trough for orders.

當然。讓我發表一些評論，傑夫，然後尼克也可能有一些補充。因此，如果您查看第四季度初至季度末，我們會發現訂單有所增加，我們會看到訂單退出率高於第四季度初，然後較 10 月份的訂單量大幅上升。這就是我們所討論的成長，以及為什麼我們認為第四季是訂單的低潮。

Yes. And Jeff, just to go a little deeper in that, what we're seeing, one of the dynamics we're seeing in Q4, and we expect to continue through Q1 as well is our channel partners, our distributors working to rightsize their inventory as we are seeing -- as they are seeing good reductions in our lead times. They're doing the right actions of bringing their inventory levels down and that's resulting in lower orders being placed on us.

是的。傑夫，更深入一點，我們所看到的，我們在第四季度看到的動態之一，我們預計第一季也將繼續是我們的通路合作夥伴，我們的經銷商正在努力調整他們的庫存規模正如我們所看到的——他們看到我們的交貨時間大大縮短了。他們正在採取正確的行動來降低庫存水平，這導致我們的訂單減少。

And we expect that to continue through Q1 and we think Q2, as we -- and as we discussed with all of our distributors, Q2 is where that will start to change where the inventory levels at our distributors will be reaching the normal level that they expect. So partly, I'd say that, just to say, we don't really see this level of orders we're seeing now is normalized. We're seeing them the correct reaction to the actions they're taking to bring their inventory levels down.

我們預計這種情況將持續到第一季度，我們認為第二季度，正如我們與所有分銷商討論的那樣，第二季度這種情況將開始發生變化，我們分銷商的庫存水平將達到他們的正常水平。預計。因此，我想說的是，我們並沒有真正看到我們現在看到的這種訂單水平已經正常化。我們看到他們對為降低庫存水準而採取的行動做出了正確的反應。

And if I could add to that. So our distributors are seeing a higher level of incoming orders that they in turn are placing on us due to their high inventory levels. So we have, as you would imagine, very good visibility into our distributors' incoming orders from their customers from the end users and the machine builders, and that order activity is higher than what they're in turn placing on us. So that gives us additional confidence that orders will ramp up as their inventory situation comes down.

如果我可以補充一下的話。因此，我們的經銷商看到了更高水準的傳入訂單，而由於庫存水準較高，他們反過來向我們下達了更高水準的訂單。因此，正如您想像的那樣，我們可以很好地了解分銷商從最終用戶和機器製造商收到的訂單，並且訂單活動高於他們向我們下的訂單。因此，這讓我們更有信心，隨著庫存狀況的下降，訂單將會增加。

And then maybe just on the guide. If I heard right, I think you said you're expecting positive organic growth in Q1 and obviously, you have a negative in your guide range. I would have thought if that negative were to happen, it would actually happen in Q1 with this order normalization. So maybe just kind of talk about your thought process of what gets you to the negative organic growth for the year versus being positive in Q1.

然後也許就在指南上。如果我沒聽錯的話，我想你說過你預計第一季會出現積極的有機增長，顯然，你的指導範圍是負的。我以為如果這種負面情況發生，它實際上會在第一季發生，並且順序正常化。因此，也許只是談談您的思考過程，即是什麼讓您今年的有機增長為負，而不是第一季的有機增長為正。

Sure. So at the negative end, you would see a slower reduction of inventories at our distributors and a deterioration in the macro. At the upper end of the range, you would see distributors stabilizing their inventory at higher levels than they did before. So getting back to that equilibrium and placing orders that are more reflective of the underlying demand from users and integrators and machine builders, and you would also see at the high end, some of the impact from the big projects being spurred by stimulus, specifically in the U.S. I should add as well that on the high end, if we talk about total sales some of the performance in terms of new acquisitions, I think there's some opportunity there as well.

當然。因此，從負面來看，您會看到我們經銷商的庫存減少速度較慢，宏觀經濟狀況惡化。在該範圍的上限，您會看到分銷商將庫存穩定在比以前更高的水平。因此，回到這種平衡狀態，下訂單更能反映用戶、整合商和機器製造商的潛在需求，你還會在高端看到，刺激措施刺激的大型專案的一些影響，特別是在我還應該補充一點，在高端市場，如果我們談論總銷售額和新收購方面的一些表現，我認為那裡也存在一些機會。

And Jeff, to follow up on the one question about why Q1, why we think that will be low single-digit growth. Yes, if we were only looking at the orders, your question would -- that would make sense why not negative. However, we also continue to have a $4.1 billion backlog that we're entering the year with. And so what we're seeing in our Q1 revenue is a combination of continued sales of some of that backlog, coupled with the lower orders we're expecting in Q1.

傑夫，跟進一個問題，為什麼第一季度，為什麼我們認為第一季的成長將是低個位數成長。是的，如果我們只看訂單，你的問題就會——這就是有道理的，為什麼不是負面的。然而，我們今年仍有 41 億美元的積壓訂單。因此，我們在第一季的收入中看到的是一些積壓訂單的持續銷售，加上我們預計第一季的訂單減少。

Yes. And if I could just add one additional piece. We do expect shipments to ramp sequentially in terms of volume through the year. You get into a little bit of the math of comparables based on having such strong shipments at the tail end of the year that enters into the math of the year-over-year growth as well.

是的。如果我能再添加一件就好了。我們確實預計全年出貨量將持續增加。基於年底如此強勁的出貨量，您可以對可比較數據進行一些計算，這也進入了同比增長的計算中。

We will take our next question from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行安德魯·奧賓的下一個問題。

Yes, just -- maybe just to -- maybe unpack this minus 2% growth rate a little bit further. Historically, there's been a strong connection between CapEx and your sort of view of the growth rate, I'm sure you'll tell us a lot more about it at the Analyst Day and your framework. I fully appreciate it. But what kind of macro do we need to see for minus 2% to manifest itself. Does this imply pushouts of EV batteries? Could you just describe the macro environment behind the minus 2%, the low end of the forecast?

是的，只是——也許只是為了——也許進一步解釋一下負 2% 的成長率。從歷史上看，資本支出和您對成長率的看法之間存在著密切的聯繫，我相信您會在分析師日和您的框架上告訴我們更多有關它的資訊。我非常感激。但我們需要看到什麼樣的宏觀才能讓負2%顯現出來。這是否意味著電動車電池的淘汰？您能簡單描述一下-2%（預測的下限）背後的宏觀環境嗎？

Yes. I think that would contemplate push-outs that turn into cancellations, quite frankly, whereas if a project is pushed by a couple of months, it's not going to have a big impact in the year. But if some of those projects or a larger amount of those projects rolled over into deferrals or cancellations, the people said, "No, just kidding" about EV, we don't need to build out the semiconductor industry process, which is 35% of our business if people aren't looking to increase energy, both hydrocarbon and renewable energy forms in the U.S. If we saw a significant reduction of those projects, I think that would contribute to that minus -- that downside part of the range.

是的。坦白說，我認為這會考慮將推遲變成取消，如果一個項目推遲幾個月，那麼它不會在今年產生很大的影響。但如果其中一些項目或其中大量項目延期或取消，人們說，關於電動車“不，只是開玩笑”，我們不需要建立半導體行業流程，該流程為 35%如果人們不希望增加美國的能源，包括碳氫化合物和可再生能源形式，我們的業務就會受到影響。如果我們看到這些項目大幅減少，我認為這將導致負值——範圍的下行部分。

Got you. And just a follow-up, ARR of 16%, which is pretty decent for an industrial software company, nice exit rates. So what kind of software growth is embedded? What kind of ARR assumptions are in your '24 forecast?

明白你了。後續的 ARR 為 16%，這對於工業軟體公司來說相當不錯，退出率也不錯。那麼嵌入了什麼樣的軟體成長呢？您的 24 年預測有哪些 ARR 假設？

Yes. We're looking at 15% ARR, and we're very proud of that ARR number because it's broad-based. It's not just the newer acquisitions like Flex and Fix, but it's our traditional offerings as well, some of the on-prem software and as we go through the year based on the lower growth in overall Rockwell, we do expect ARR to increase to above 9% of our total sales in the year. It's a combination both of the software as well as the high-value recurring services.

是的。我們的目標是 15% 的 ARR，我們對這個 ARR 數字感到非常自豪，因為它具有廣泛的基礎。這不僅是像Flex 和Fix 這樣的新收購，而且還有我們的傳統產品、一些本地軟體，並且隨著我們在整個Rockwell 整體成長較低的基礎上度過這一年，我們確實預計ARR 將增加到以上占我們當年總銷售額的9%。它是軟體和高價值經常性服務的結合。

We made some organizational changes to supercharge that area. And that, along with some of the new developments and offerings that we have, make us very optimistic about the contribution that ARR is going to have to our overall growth. And obviously, we like the resiliency that it gives our results by not starting each year at 0 with respect to software sales.

我們進行了一些組織變革，以增強該領域的實力。加上我們擁有的一些新開發和產品，使我們對 ARR 對我們整體成長的貢獻感到非常樂觀。顯然，我們喜歡它為我們的結果帶來的彈性，因為軟體銷售量不是每年都從 0 開始。

We will take our next question from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行朱利安·米切爾的下一個問題。

Maybe I just wanted to follow up first off on Nick, your comments on the first quarter. So is the right assumption sort of low single-digit organic growth in Q1, as you said. And then margins for the year are guided flattish for the total company. Are we assuming kind of Q1 is similar to that year-on-year just given the acquisition headwind and so forth. So you have sort of sales up a little bit, margins flat and then earnings up a little bit year-on-year then?

也許我只是想先跟進尼克，你對第一季的評論。正如您所說，第一季低個位數有機成長的正確假設也是如此。然後，整個公司今年的利潤率將持平。考慮到收購逆風等因素，我們是否假設第一季與去年同期相似？那麼你的銷售額略有上升，利潤率持平，然後獲利年比略有上升？

Julien, thanks for asking that question. Q1 organic growth year-on-year, we think will be low single digits. On the margin question, Q1 of last year, we had a margin of 20%. We expect that to be lower year-on-year in fiscal year '24. And there's 3 things that are going to be mainly contributing to it being lower. One is our ClearPath acquisition and the impact that will have.

朱利安，謝謝你提出這個問題。我們認為第一季有機年成長將是低個位數。關於利潤率問題，去年第一季度，我們的利潤率為 20%。我們預計 24 財年這數字將年減。有三件事將主要導致其降低。一是我們收購 ClearPath 及其產生的影響。

The second is mix that we see a less favorable mix in the first quarter of the products that we will be selling. And we think we'll be having lower utilization in our factories as there's -- as we're adjusting our production to these lower orders. And we think those 3 things in combination are going to be resulting in lower margin year-on-year.

第二個是組合，我們認為第一季我們將銷售的產品組合不太有利。我們認為我們工廠的利用率將會降低，因為我們正在根據這些較低的訂單調整生產。我們認為這三件事結合起來將導致利潤率年減。

That's very helpful. And then I just wanted to come back to the revenue outlook. So one question maybe, we look at North America, I think the guide implies maybe sales are up mid-single digits there or something this year. And in '23, North America was the lowest growth region globally. And so we're sort of 7 years on from U.S.-China tariffs, 2 years on from the IIJA -- is it just that the pace of these onshore stimulus projects is so much slower than perhaps people often hope or assume. I just wanted to check that for the year, are you assuming -- it looks like that the book-to-bill will be about 0.9 times. Is that correct? And what's embedded in the orders and sales color?

這非常有幫助。然後我只想回到收入前景。所以可能有一個問題，讓我們看看北美，我認為該指南暗示今年那裡的銷售額可能會上升到個位數左右。 23 年，北美是全球成長最低的地區。那麼，美中關稅已經過去 7 年了，IIJA 已經過去 2 年了——難道這些在岸刺激項目的步伐比人們通常希望或假設的要慢得多嗎？我只是想檢查一下今年的情況，你是否假設——訂單出貨比大約是 0.9 倍。那是對的嗎？訂單和銷售顏色中嵌入了什麼？

Let me start with the Americas discussion, and then Nick can follow up with a little bit on the book-to-bill. So the Americas actually outpaced the rest of the world with respect to orders, and we expect that to continue in fiscal year '24. We've talked about for a few quarters now based on shipping from backlog, in some case, fairly aged backlog that our distribution of growth by region and by industry segment is more a factor of the backlog than the current underlying demand. And you're correct that we do expect the highest growth region to be the Americas going forward. With respect to the impact of stimulus, we're still in the early innings there. The business that we're winning there is really just ramping up. We saw some good development in the second half of last year. But by far, there's more business to come based on the projects that we're tracking.

讓我從美洲的討論開始，然後尼克可以跟進一下訂單到賬單的情況。因此，美洲在訂單方面實際上超過了世界其他地區，我們預計這種情況將在 24 財年繼續下去。我們已經討論了幾個季度，基於積壓訂單的運輸，在某些情況下，相當陳舊的積壓訂單，我們按地區和行業細分的增長分佈更多地是積壓訂單的一個因素，而不是當前的潛在需求。您是對的，我們確實預計未來成長最快的地區將是美洲。就刺激措施的影響而言，我們仍處於早期階段。我們在那裡贏得的業務確實剛剛開始成長。去年下半年我們看到了一些好的發展。但到目前為止，根據我們正在追蹤的項目，還會有更多業務出現。

And Julian, the question on the book-to-bill, yes, your math is right, approximately 90% book-to-bill for the full year below that in the first half of the year and above that in the second half of the year. Thanks, Julian.

朱利安，關於訂單出貨比的問題，是的，你的數學是正確的，全年的訂單出貨比大約有 90% 低於上半年，高於下半年。年。謝謝，朱利安。

We will take our next question from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答沃爾夫研究公司奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe) 提出的下一個問題。

So we've had about 1,000 questions on back off, and I have 1 more. So the 0.9 times book-to-bill for the full year, it seems to suggest that we're going to be down sort of the low $3 billion for the -- by the end of '24. I'm wondering, do we go below that level first half once the distributors start kind of stop cutting inventories and then rebuild. Just wondering where you see the backlog stabilizing?

我們已經收到了大約 1,000 個問題，我還有 1 個。因此，全年訂單出貨比為 0.9 倍，這似乎表明，到 24 年底，我們的銷售額將下降至 30 億美元的低點。我想知道，一旦分銷商開始停止削減庫存然後重建，我們上半年的價格是否會低於該水平。只是想知道積壓訂單在哪裡趨於穩定？

Yes. We see the backlog stabilizing, and I think I said this on the last quarter earnings call as well that at 30% to 35% of revenue, annualized revenue is what we think is the normal -- normalized backlog level will be at given the mix of our businesses that we have.

是的。我們看到積壓工作趨於穩定，我想我在上個季度的財報電話會議上也說過，年化收入佔收入的30% 到35%，我們認為這是正常的——考慮到組合情況，標準化的積壓水準將達到我們擁有的業務。

So that would indicate an exit of the fiscal year at above $3 billion.

因此，這意味著本財年的退出金額將超過 30 億美元。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And that is consistent with what you've said as well. And then just on sort of the -- and Nick, we're talking about 1.4 billion orders in the fourth quarter fiscal. If you can just kind of -- can I verify that, that would be helpful.

好的。這也與你所說的一致。然後，尼克，我們談論的是第四財季的 14 億份訂單。如果你能——我可以驗證一下嗎，那會很有幫助。

And then on the [FY '24] bridge, a couple of things. FX, you're assuming 1.5 points of tailwind. The math we're getting is probably more like a minus 1 for the full year. So just wondering where we're wrong there. And then on the lifecycle services margin expansion. I think it makes sense is based on history, just wondering what drove the downside in the fourth quarter? What visibility do we have on improving margins there in '24.

然後在 [FY '24] 橋上，有幾件事。 FX，您假設有 1.5 個點的順風。我們得到的數學結果可能更像是全年的負 1。所以只是想知道我們哪裡錯了。然後是生命週期服務利潤的擴張。我認為這是有道理的，這是基於歷史的，只是想知道是什麼導致了第四季的下滑？ 24 年我們對提高利潤率有什麼看法？

Yes. I'll try to do those in reverse order. In terms of the things drawing down the margin in the fourth quarter, the 2 main things were our restructuring actions that had an outsized impact on the life cycle services as well as the increased bonus expense that we were facing.

是的。我會嘗試以相反的順序進行這些操作。就第四季利潤下降的因素而言，有兩個主要因素是我們的重組行動對生命週期服務產生了巨大影響，以及我們面臨的獎金費用增加。

Now as we flip into '24, the bonus expense will be a tailwind to all businesses and life cycle services will -- margin will benefit from that. but also from the actions that we took in 2023, we think those will also be a propellant of life cycle services margin expansion into '24.

現在，當我們進入 24 世紀時，獎金支出將成為所有企業和生命週期服務的順風——利潤率將從中受益。而從我們在 2023 年採取的行動來看，我們認為這些也將推動生命週期服務利潤率擴展到 2024 年。

On the currency side, given our mix of businesses and what we're projecting, many of the occurrences we're just using our current -- what the current spot rate is going forward. In some currencies such as the euro, what we will use is a group of banks and what they're expecting for a particular currency in the coming year. And so roughly 1.5% year-on-year benefit is coming from our expectations for currencies in fiscal year '24.

在貨幣方面，考慮到我們的業務組合和我們的預測，在許多情況下我們只是使用當前的即期匯率。對於歐元等某些貨幣，我們將使用一組銀行以及他們對來年特定貨幣的預期。因此，約 1.5% 的年比收益來自我們對 24 財年貨幣的預期。

And then in terms of the orders, we haven't been giving it by quarter. We did say it's orders were $8.2 billion in the -- for the full year. At the midpoint of the year, we had said they were $4.8 billion and then, therefore, we're at $3.4 billion in the second half of the year. The third quarter was above that average. The average of 1.7% was above that. Fourth quarter was slightly below that level. So we saw in Q3 to Q4, it go down further, but we haven't been giving it by quarter what our orders are.

然後就訂單而言，我們還沒有按季度給出。我們確實說過全年的訂單金額為 82 億美元。年中時，我們曾說過規模為 48 億美元，因此，下半年我們的規模為 34 億美元。第三季高於該平均值。 1.7%的平均值高於此。第四季略低於該水準。因此，我們在第三季到第四季看到，它進一步下降，但我們沒有按季度給出我們的訂單量。

We will take our next question from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan.

我們將回答摩根大通史蒂夫·圖薩的下一個問題。

Just on the bridge. Can you just maybe -- the incentive comp is a big tailwind, makes sense. It was a headwind this year. Can you just maybe help us with how that breaks out in the first and second quarter here, what type of tailwind you expect there?

就在橋上。你能不能只是也許——激勵補償是一個很大的推動力，這是有道理的。今年是逆風。您能否幫助我們了解第一季和第二季的情況如何，您預計那裡會出現什麼類型的順風？

Yes. First, for the full year, I'll just actually say actual numbers. Our total bonus expense in fiscal year '23 is approximately $240 million. And in our plans for fiscal year '24, it's dropping to $120 million. And that expectation of $120 million, that's spread exactly equally across the 4 quarters of '24. In '23, that $240 million was -- I can give you the actual numbers of how that broke out, Steve, if that helps. It was $46 million in Q1, $58 million in Q2, $56 million in Q3 and $80 million in Q4.

是的。首先，對於全年，我實際上只會說實際數字。我們 23 財年的獎金支出總額約為 2.4 億美元。在我們 24 財年的計畫中，這一數字將降至 1.2 億美元。 1.2 億美元的預期在 2024 年的 4 個季度中分佈完全相同。 23 年，這 2.4 億美元是——我可以給你具體的數字，說明它是如何爆發的，史蒂夫，如果這有幫助的話。第一季為 4,600 萬美元，第二季為 5,800 萬美元，第三季為 5,600 萬美元，第四季為 8,000 萬美元。

Wow, great detail. On the orders, how much of the headwind was actual -- or actual cancellations. I'm not sure I caught that earlier, what the actual cancellation number was?

哇，好詳細。在訂單上，有多少阻力是實際的——或者實際的取消。我不確定我之前是否注意到了，實際的取消號碼是多少？

Yes. The cancellations were in a similar range to what we've been talking about, which is to say they were not the major contributor to the orders decrease. The main contributor by far to the orders decrease is the high inventory levels at the distributors. So cancellations were a relatively small piece of it. At this point, clearing those final golden screw or fourth wheel constrained components to be able to allow distributors to shift complete bills and material is also a smaller component of the overall contributor to the orders down in Q4.

是的。取消訂單的範圍與我們一直在談論的類似，也就是說，它們並不是訂單減少的主要原因。到目前為止，訂單減少的主要原因是分銷商的高庫存水準。因此，取消只是其中相對較小的一部分。在這一點上，清理那些最後的金螺絲或第四輪受限組件，以便能夠允許分銷商轉移完整的賬單和材料，也是第四季度訂單下降的總體貢獻因素中較小的一部分。

One last one, just on the bridge. The $0.25 of acquisition headwind is pretty big for the ClearPath business, given it's a relatively small revenue number. That's all kind of incremental investments you are making or that's how much money the business is losing? Or like what's driving that? So to keep the $0.25 is a pretty big number.

最後一站，就在橋上。考慮到 ClearPath 業務的收入相對較小，0.25 美元的收購阻力對於 ClearPath 業務來說相當大。這是您正在進行的所有增量投資，還是企業損失了多少錢？或者是什麼推動了這一點？因此，保留 0.25 美元是一個相當大的數字。

Yes, Steve, first of all, as Nick said, we expect the ClearPath contribution to be accretive in fiscal year '26. This is an important strategic move for Rockwell and 1 that I think will be apparent as we talk about it and demonstrate it next week. The dilution in fiscal year '24 is based on a combination of them ramping their capabilities. So think of it as somewhat of a start-up mode, but also us making sure that we surround it with the right resources to fully integrate it as quickly as possible into Rockwell to be able to provide that value for customers. So that's not only the technical resources, but it's the commercial resources. It's the infrastructure to help them drive cost out of their operations and drive unit cost out of those AMRs. And so it is some additional investment from Rockwell's part to make sure that we integrate this really thoroughly because this is a major milestone for us.

是的，史蒂夫，首先，正如尼克所說，我們預計 ClearPath 的貢獻將在 26 財年增加。對於 Rockwell 和 1 來說，這是一項重要的策略舉措，我認為當我們下週討論並進行演示時，這一舉措將會變得顯而易見。 24 財年的稀釋是基於他們不斷提高能力的結果。因此，我們可以將其視為一種啟動模式，但我們也要確保為其提供適當的資源，以盡快將其完全整合到羅克韋爾中，以便能夠為客戶提供該價值。所以這不僅是技術資源，也是商業資源。它是幫助他們降低營運成本並降低 AMR 單位成本的基礎設施。因此，羅克韋爾方面需要進行一些額外投資，以確保我們真正徹底地整合這一點，因為這對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑。

We will take one more question.

我們再回答一個問題。

Our final question will come from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

我們的最後一個問題將由諾亞·凱和奧本海默提出。

Okay. Thanks for all the details and guide. Just one housekeeping item. What is the price rollover contribution for 2024? Or what is the total contribution of price to organic growth for '24? And then what are you assuming for cost inflation?

好的。感謝您提供所有詳細資訊和指導。只有一件家事用品。 2024 年的價格展期貢獻是多少？或者說，24 年價格對有機成長的總貢獻是多少？那麼您對成本通膨有何假設？

Yes. We are assuming that price growth will be slightly over 1% year-over-year. And in terms of input costs, we're expecting that to be very neutral year-over-year, causing the net of price cost to be a little over 100 basis points accretive to margin.

是的。我們假設價格年增幅將略高於 1%。就投入成本而言，我們預期年比將非常中性，導致淨價格成本略高於 100 個基點，從而增加利潤率。

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session today. I will now turn the call back to Ms. Aijana Zellner for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給 Aijana Zellner 女士，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. That concludes our call.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們的通話到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, you may disconnect. Thank you for your participation.

女士們先生們，這個時候，你們可以斷開連結了。感謝您的參與。