Regional Management Corp (RM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Regional Management fourth quarter 2024 conference call.

問候並歡迎參加 2024 年第四季區域管理電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Garrett Edson with ICR. Please go ahead, Garrett.

現在我很高興將電話轉給 ICR 的 Garrett Edson。請繼續，加勒特。

Thank you, and good afternoon. By now, everyone should have access to our earnings announcement and supplemental presentation, which were released prior to this call and may be found on our website at regionalmanagement.com.

謝謝，下午好。現在，每個人都應該可以查看我們在本次電話會議之前發布的收益公告和補充報告，可以在我們的網站 regionalmanagement.com 上找到。

Before we begin our formal remarks, I will direct you to page 2 of our supplemental presentation, which contains important disclosures concerning forward statements and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Part of our discussion today may include forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations, estimates, and projections about the company's future financial performance and business prospects. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today are subject to various assumptions, risks, uncertainties, and other factors that are difficult to predict and that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and therefore you should not place undue reliance upon them. We refer all of you to our press release, presentation, and recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties that could impact our future operating results and financial condition.

在我們開始正式發言之前，我將引導您閱讀補充報告的第 2 頁，其中包含有關遠期報表和使用非 GAAP 財務指標的重要揭露。我們今天的討論內容可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於管理層對公司未來財務表現和業務前景的當前預期、估計和預測。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表今天的觀點，並受各種假設、風險、不確定性和其他難以預測的因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現，因此您不應過度依賴它們。請大家參閱我們的新聞稿、簡報和最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以便更詳細地討論我們的前瞻性陳述以及可能影響我們未來經營業績和財務狀況的風險和不確定性。

Also, our discussion today may include references to certain non-GAAP measures, reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found within our earnings announcement or earnings presentation and posted on our website at regionalmanagement.com.

此外，我們今天的討論可能涉及某些非 GAAP 指標，這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在我們的收益公告或收益報告中找到，也可以在我們的網站 regionalmanagement.com 上發布。

I would now like to introduce Rob Beck, President and CEO of Regional Management Corp.

現在我想介紹區域管理公司總裁兼執行長 Rob Beck。

Thanks, Garrett and welcome to our fourth quarter. 2024 earnings call. I'm joined today by Harp Rana, our Chief Financial and Administrative Officer. On this call, we'll cover our fourth quarter financial and operating results, provide an update on our portfolio, credit, performance, and growth and share our expectations for 2025.

謝謝，加勒特，歡迎來到我們的第四季。 2024 年收益電話會議。今天與我一起參加的是我們的財務和行政官 Harp Rana。在本次電話會議上，我們將介紹第四季度的財務和營運業績，介紹我們的投資組合、信貸、業績和成長的最新情況，並分享我們對 2025 年的期望。

We're very pleased with how our team and company performed in the fourth quarter. We generated strong bottom line results of $9.9 million of net income and $0.98 of diluted earnings per share. These results were better than our guidance and a sharp improvement from the prior year period. Net loss of $7.6 million.

我們對我們的團隊和公司在第四季度的表現非常滿意。我們實現了強勁的獲利業績，淨收入 990 萬美元，每股攤薄收益 0.98 美元。這些結果優於我們的預期，並且比去年同期有大幅改善。淨虧損760萬美元。

As a reminder in the fourth quarter of 2023 we incurred restructuring expenses and closed a special delinquent loan sale that had the effect of pulling forward net credit losses and revenue reversals from the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2023.

提醒一下，在 2023 年第四季度，我們發生了重組費用，並結束了一項特殊拖欠貸款出售，其效果是將淨信貸損失和收入逆轉從 2024 年第一季提前到 2023 年第四季。

We didn't experience similar events in the fourth quarter of 2024. So there will be noise in some of our year over year comparisons, which we'll highlight for you. Loan demand remained strong in the fourth quarter. We began to ramp up our portfolio growth and increase our investment spend in the quarter including by opening four new branches. We'll also open another eight new branches in the first quarter to drive future growth.

2024 年第四季我們沒有經歷類似事件。因此，我們的一些同比比較中會存在一些噪音，我們將為您重點介紹。第四季貸款需求依然強勁。我們開始加快投資組合成長並增加本季的投資支出，包括開設四家新分公司。我們還將在第一季開設另外 8 家新分行，以推動未來成長。

We grew our portfolio by $73 million sequentially in the fourth quarter to nearly $1.9 billion an all time high for our company. The portfolio generated record quarterly revenue of $155 million up 9.3% from the fourth quarter of 2023 or 7.8% when adjusted for the impact of the prior year's loan sale.

我們的投資組合在第四季環比成長了 7,300 萬美元，達到近 19 億美元，創下公司歷史新高。該投資組合創造了創紀錄的季度收入 1.55 億美元，較 2023 年第四季成長 9.3%，經上年貸款銷售的影響調整後成長 7.8%。

Our fourth quarter total revenue yield was 33.4% up 110 basis points from the prior year period or 80 basis points after adjusting for the 2023 loan sale. Our total revenue yield in the fourth quarter was the highest. It's been in two years. As we've discussed in prior quarters, we've improved our yields from increased pricing, a mix shift to higher margin loans, and improving credit performance.

我們第四季的總營收收益率為 33.4%，較去年同期上升 110 個基點，經 2023 年貸款銷售調整後上升 80 個基點。我們第四季的總營收收益率是最高的。已經兩年了。正如我們在前幾季所討論的那樣，我們透過提高定價、向更高保證金貸款組合轉變以及改善信貸業績來提高收益率。

At the same time, we held G&A expenses in check as we grow while continuing to invest in our strategic initiatives. And we're leveraging our improved scale to increase our returns. Our fourth quarter G&A expenses were roughly flat to the fourth quarter of 2023 and our operating expense ratio was 14% an 80 basis points improvement from the prior year period or 30 basis points better when adjusting for the fourth quarter, 2023 restructuring.

同時，我們在發展過程中控制了一般及行政開支，並繼續對戰略計劃進行投資。我們正在利用擴大後的規模來提高回報。我們第四季的 G&A 費用與 2023 年第四季基本持平，我們的營業費用率為 14%，比去年同期提高了 80 個基點，或根據 2023 年第四季的重組進行調整後提高了 30 個基點。

We also continue to carefully manage our portfolio credit quality and performance in the fourth quarter. Credit performance continues to improve. Thanks to tighter underwriting in our front book, which represented 89% of our portfolio at year end. The loans in our front book are performing in line with our expectations and are delivering at lower loss levels than our stressed backbook vintages.

我們也將繼續在第四季度謹慎管理我們的投資組合信用品質和績效。信用績效持續改善。這得歸功於我們前期核保業務的嚴格實施，截至年底，前期核保業務占我們投資組合的 89%。我們前帳簿上的貸款表現符合我們的預期，且損失水準低於我們緊張的後帳簿上的貸款。

We ended the fourth quarter with a 30 plus day delinquency rate of 7.7%, up 80 basis points from the end of 2023 but 10 basis points better year over year when adjusting for the fourth quarter 2023 loan sale. Our fourth quarter net credit loss rate was 10.8%, which was 430 basis points better than our prior year period or 110 basis points better after adjusting for the prior year loan sale. Our growth in our higher margin portfolio increased both our delinquency and net credit loss rates by 20 basis points in the fourth quarter.

我們第四季結束時的 30 天以上拖欠率為 7.7%，較 2023 年底上升了 80 個基點，但根據 2023 年第四季的貸款銷售情況調整後，同比上升了 10 個基點。我們第四季的淨信用損失率為 10.8%，比去年同期下降了 430 個基點，調整去年同期的貸款銷售後下降了 110 個基點。由於我們的高利潤率投資組合不斷增長，第四季度我們的拖欠率和淨信用損失率都增加了 20 個基點。

Also, as a reminder, our slower pace of portfolio growth in 2024 negatively impacted our delinquency rate and NCL rate as the denominator of both ratios has grown more slowly than in prior years. On a growth adjusted basis, we are very pleased with the improvement in our delinquency and NCL rates. By managing credit tightly and growing our high quality auto secured book, we're experiencing better credit performance despite having leaned into growth in our higher margin, greater than 36% APR loan portfolio, which grew from 16% of our portfolio to 19% of our portfolio year over year.

另外，需要提醒的是，2024 年我們的投資組合成長速度放緩對我們的拖欠率和 NCL 率產生了負面影響，因為這兩個比率的分母的成長速度都比前幾年慢。在成長調整的基礎上，我們對拖欠率和不良貸款率的改善感到非常高興。透過嚴格管理信貸和增加我們的高品質汽車擔保帳簿，儘管我們的利潤率更高、年利率超過 36% 的貸款組合的增長依賴於該組合，但我們的信貸表現仍然更好，該組合在我們投資組合中的佔比從去年同期的 16% 增長到 19%。

As we've discussed in the past, our net credit loss rates peaked in 2023 and we've experienced gradual improvement since then. We expect continued improvement in portfolio quality and credit loss performance in 2025. Assuming inflation continues to moderate and economic conditions remain stable including low unemployment and continued real wage growth.

正如我們過去討論過的，我們的淨信用損失率在 2023 年達到頂峰，從那時起我們就經歷了逐步的改善。我們預計 2025 年投資組合品質和信用損失表現將持續改善。假設通膨持續緩和，經濟狀況維持穩定，包括低失業率和實質薪資持續成長。

The fourth quarter capped a strong 2024 in which we improved our results from the prior year on nearly all lines. We grew our loan portfolio by $120 million in 2024 and that in turn drove our revenue higher. Our 2024 revenue was up 7% compared to 2023. And our total revenue yields improved by 70 basis points year over year from increased pricing, portfolio mid shift, and improved credit performance.

第四季為 2024 年的強勁表現畫上了句號，在這一年中，我們幾乎所有業務線的業績都比前一年有所改善。2024 年，我們的貸款組合增加了 1.2 億美元，這反過來又推動了我們的收入成長。我們的 2024 年營收與 2023 年相比成長了 7%。由於定價提高、投資組合中轉和信貸績效改善，我們的總收益率年增了 70 個基點。

Our net credit loss rate improved by 120 basis points in 2024 and our operating expense ratio improved by 40 basis points year over year. Importantly, our net income more than doubled from 2023 and our return on assets improved to 2.3% in 2024 from just under 1% in 2023.

2024 年，我們的淨信用損失率年比改善了 120 個基點，營業費用率較去年同期改善了 40 個基點。重要的是，我們的淨收入比 2023 年增加了一倍多，資產回報率從 2023 年的不到 1% 提高到 2024 年的 2.3%。

While economic conditions prevented our bottom line results and returns from fully normalizing in 2024, we're pleased with how we navigated the inflationary environment over the past couple of years. We're also encouraged by the signs of strength that we're observing in the subprime consumer and the economy. And that strength is reflected in our improving credit performance. Over the long term, we expect that our returns will continue to normalize with the benefits of a stable macroeconomic environment, further scale through disciplined portfolio growth, a well balanced product mix, and prudent expense management.

儘管經濟狀況阻礙了我們的底線結果和回報在 2024 年完全正常化，但我們對過去幾年如何應對通膨環境感到滿意。我們也對次級房貸消費者和經濟領域出現的強勁跡象感到鼓舞。這種實力體現在我們不斷提升的信用績效。從長遠來看，我們預計，在穩定的宏觀經濟環境的幫助下，我們的回報將繼續正常化，並透過嚴格的投資組合成長、均衡的產品組合和審慎的費用管理進一步擴大規模。

During our past couple of earnings calls, I spoke with you about our portfolio mix, our higher margin loan business, our auto secured book, and how we think about constructing our portfolio as we grow. This quarter, as we enter a period with a more constructive economic environment and an expectation of stronger portfolio growth, I want to spend a few minutes discussing the impact of growth on our bottom line and how we think strategically about the balance between portfolio growth and net income in the short and long term.

在過去幾次財報電話會議上，我與大家討論了我們的投資組合、高保證金貸款業務、汽車擔保帳簿，以及我們在發展過程中如何建立我們的投資組合。本季度，隨著我們進入更積極的經濟環境和更強勁的投資組合成長預期，我想花幾分鐘討論成長對我們的底線的影響，以及我們如何從戰略上思考短期和長期投資組合成長與淨收入之間的平衡。

Portfolio growth of course impacts all lines of our income statement. It's the fuel that generates our revenue growth. It increases our provision for loan losses and net credit losses. No matter the quality of new loans added. It requires us to increase our G&A investment and it creates the denominator effect on both our operating expense ratio and net credit loss rate. It drives up our interest expense including our average interest rate, as we use more costly funding to grow the portfolio.

投資組合的成長當然會影響我們損益表的所有項目。它是推動我們收入成長的動力。它增加了我們的貸款損失和淨信貸損失準備金。無論新增貸款的品質如何。它要求我們增加一般及行政開支，並對我們的營業費用率和淨信用損失率產生分母效應。由於我們使用更昂貴的資金來擴大投資組合，這推高了我們的利息支出，包括平均利率。

Some of these growth impacts are beneficial to our income statement and performance metrics while others are detrimental and the severity of the impact varies across the lines and time periods. As we develop our short and long term plans, we balance these dynamics to optimize short and long term returns to our investors.

其中一些成長影響對我們的損益表和績效指標有利，而有些則有害，且影響的嚴重程度因業務線和時間段而異。在製定短期和長期計劃時，我們會平衡這些動態，以優化投資者的短期和長期回報。

Looking back to the five years prior to 2020. We grew our portfolio at an average of more than 15% per year and over 19% in 2019 prior to the pandemic. After holding our portfolio flat in 2020 due to COVID, we grew our portfolio at an average of roughly 22% per year in 2021 and 2022. While at the same time benefiting from a highly constructive credit environment supported by government stimulus. However, over the past two years, we substantially quote our portfolio growth to 4% in 2023 and 7% in 2024 due to inflationary economic conditions and the corresponding impact on credit performance.

回顧2020年之前的五年。在疫情爆發之前，我們的投資組合每年平均成長 15% 以上，2019 年的成長速度超過 19%。由於新冠疫情，我們的投資組合在 2020 年持平，但在 2021 年和 2022 年，我們的投資組合平均每年增長約 22%。同時受益於政府刺激措施支持的高度建設性信貸環境。然而，在過去兩年中，由於通膨的經濟狀況及其對信貸表現的相應影響，我們大幅預期投資組合的成長率在 2023 年將達到 4%，在 2024 年將達到 7%。

Now, for the first time since we adopted the [CECL] reserve model in 2020, we've entered a year where we expect to accelerate our growth in a more normalized credit environment. As you know, under the CECL model, we're required to reserve for expected lifetime losses at the origination of each loan. While the revenue benefits are recognized over the life alone. For example, in the fourth quarter, we grew our portfolio by $73 million sequentially requiring a $7.7 million provision for credit losses. And it created an after tax drag of $6 million our fourth quarter net income.

現在，自 2020 年採用 [CECL] 儲備模型以來，我們首次進入了預計在更正常化的信貸環境中加速成長的一年。如您所知，根據 CECL 模型，我們需要在每筆貸款發放時為預期的終身損失預留資金。而收入收益僅在其生命週期內確認。例如，在第四季度，我們的投資組合連續成長了 7,300 萬美元，需要計算 770 萬美元的信貸損失準備金。這對我們第四季的稅後淨收入造成了 600 萬美元的拖累。

Our return to faster growth in 2025 will likewise create an immediate drag on 2025 net income due to the associated expenses of provisioning for lifetime credit losses at origination. But it will create benefits over the long term as loan growth drives increased revenue and bottom line returns.

我們將在 2025 年恢復更快的成長，但這也將對 2025 年的淨收入造成直接拖累，因為會產生在發起時提列終身信貸損失準備金的相關費用。但從長遠來看，它將帶來效益，因為貸款成長將推動收入和底線回報的增加。

As we determine our growth rate, we not only consider the health of the consumer, the strength of the economy, and the credit performance of our portfolio. We also balance our need to continue to deliver short term results for our investors while also generating the portfolio growth that will fuel our success and normalization of returns over the long term.

在決定成長率時，我們不僅考慮消費者的健康狀況、經濟實力以及投資組合的信用表現。我們也持續為投資者提供短期績效的需求與實現投資組合成長以推動我們的成功和長期回報正常化之間取得平衡。

The faster we grow in 2025 the more provision we must occur and the larger the drag on our 2025 net income. But that portfolio growth will be beneficial to the bottom line and our returns in 2026 and beyond. As a result of these dynamics, we internally measure success by our growth in both net income and in pre-provisioned net income, which we define as net income, excluding the tax affected impact of the provision for credit losses, but including the impact of recognized net credit losses.

2025 年我們的成長越快，我們必須進行的撥備就越多，對我們 2025 年淨收入的拖累就越大。但投資組合的成長將有利於我們的獲利以及2026年及以後的回報。由於這些動態，我們內部透過淨收入和預撥淨收入的成長來衡量成功，我們將預撥淨收入定義為淨收入，不包括信貸損失準備的稅收影響，但包括已確認的淨信貸損失的影響。

Assuming no change in our expectations for the economy, we're committed both to a minimum of 10% portfolio growth and a meaningful improvement to our net income results in 2025. We're increasing our pace of growth due to our confidence in our credit performance, improving consumer health, and strengthening macroeconomic conditions including lower inflation, real wage growth, low unemployment, and a large number of open jobs particularly for our customer set. While we feel we're capable of growing our bottom line by 30% or more in 2025, we believe that doing so would require slower portfolio growth that doesn't appropriately balance near term results with our long term aspirations.

假設我們對經濟的預期沒有變化，我們致力於實現 2025 年投資組合至少成長 10% 並且淨收入結果實現顯著改善。我們正在加快成長步伐，因為我們對信貸表現有信心，消費者健康狀況不斷改善，宏觀經濟條件不斷加強，包括通貨膨脹率降低、實際工資增長、失業率低以及為我們的客戶群提供的大量空缺職位。雖然我們認為我們有能力在 2025 年將我們的底線利潤增長 30% 或更多，但我們認為這樣做將需要放緩投資組合的增長速度，而這無法適當平衡短期業績和我們的長期願景。

While we've clearly established our internal targets for 2025 portfolio growth and net income based on our short and long term strategic priorities where we ultimately land on portfolio growth and net income in 2025 will depend on our continued assessment of the health of the customer, the economy, and credit performance over short and long terms.

雖然我們已經根據短期和長期策略重點明確了 2025 年投資組合成長和淨收入的內部目標，但我們最終確定的 2025 年投資組合成長和淨收入將取決於我們對客戶、經濟以及短期和長期信貸表現的持續評估。

For now, beyond our expectation of minimum portfolio growth of 10% in 2025, we won't be sharing full year 2025 gains. But we wanted to provide you with this overview of how we think strategically about growth and how we will manage the business this year and beyond.

目前，除了我們預期 2025 年投資組合成長率至少為 10% 之外，我們不會分享 2025 年全年的收益。但我們想為您提供一個概述，讓您了解我們如何從策略上思考成長，以及今年及以後我們將如何管理業務。

As always, I'd like to thank the Regional team for its hard work and dedication. The team skillfully managed through a difficult economic environment in 2023 and 2024 providing valuable financial products and service to our customers while anticipating, preparing for, and reacting to conditions that have been particularly challenging for our consumer base. The team's talent, commitment, and superior execution have positioned us well to return to faster growth in 2025, something we're very much looking forward to.

像往常一樣，我要感謝區域團隊的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。團隊巧妙地應對了 2023 年和 2024 年艱難的經濟環境，為我們的客戶提供了有價值的金融產品和服務，同時預測、準備和應對對我們的消費者群體來說特別具有挑戰性的情況。團隊的才華、承諾和卓越的執行力使我們在 2025 年恢復更快的成長，這是我們非常期待的。

I'll now turn the call over to Harp who will provide more detail on our fourth quarter results and guidance for the first quarter.

現在我將電話轉給哈普，他將提供有關我們第四季度業績和第一季指引的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Rob and hello, everyone. I'll now take you through our fourth quarter results in more detail and provide you with an outlook for the first quarter of 2025.

謝謝你，羅布，大家好。現在，我將向您更詳細地介紹我們第四季度的業績，並為您提供 2025 年第一季的展望。

On page 5 of the supplemental presentation, we provide our fourth quarter financial highlights. As Rob noted we posted net income of $9.9 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.98, once again exceeding our expectations and our fourth quarter 2023 results. These results were supported by our solid portfolio and revenue growth, healthy credit profile, expense discipline, and a strong balance sheet.

在補充報告的第 5 頁，我們提供了第四季度的財務亮點。正如 Rob 所說，我們的淨收入為 990 萬美元，每股攤薄收益為 0.98 美元，再次超出了我們的預期和 2023 年第四季的業績。這些業績得益於我們穩健的投資組合和收入成長、健康的信用狀況、費用控制以及強勁的資產負債表。

Turning to page 6, we continue to grow our portfolio during the quarter. With origination focused on our higher margin auto secured segments. From a risk standpoint, we continue to originate roughly 60% of our loans to applicants in our top two risk ranks. Total originations reached record levels and were up 17% year over year branch, digital, and direct mail originations were up 15%, 35%, and 15% respectively from the prior year period.

翻到第 6 頁，我們在本季繼續擴大我們的投資組合。我們的起源集中在利潤率較高的汽車擔保領域。從風險角度來看，我們繼續向風險排名前兩名的申請人發放約 60% 的貸款。總發起量達到創紀錄水平，比去年同期增長了 17%，其中分支機構、數位和直郵發起量分別比去年同期增長了 15%、35% 和 15%。

As we move through 2025 we'll be accelerating our pace of growth due to our confidence in our credit performance, improving consumer health, and a stronger macro environment. Page 7 displays our portfolio growth and product mix through the fourth quarter. We closed the quarter with record net finance receivables of $1.9 billion up $73 million sequentially. Our auto secured portfolio grew 34% in 2024 and now represents 10.9% of our total portfolio up from 8.7% at the end of 2023. Our small loan portfolio increased 12% year over year and at the end of the quarter, approximately 19% of our portfolio carried an APR greater than 36% up from 16% a year ago, reflecting a 26% balance increase in 2024.

隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們將加快成長步伐，因為我們對信貸表現充滿信心、消費者健康狀況有所改善以及宏觀環境更加強勁。第 7 頁展示了我們第四季的投資組合成長和產品組合。本季結束時，我們的淨融資應收帳款達到創紀錄的 19 億美元，比上一季成長 7,300 萬美元。我們的汽車擔保投資組合在 2024 年成長了 34%，現在占我們總投資組合的 10.9%，高於 2023 年底的 8.7%。我們的小額貸款組合年增 12%，截至本季末，約有 19% 的貸款組合的 APR 超過 36%，高於一年前的 16%，反映出 2024 年餘額增加了 26%。

As Rob has consistently noted, we've purposefully leaned into growth of higher margin small loans in recent quarters and we expect to continue growing our small loan book in a measured way in future quarters. This portfolio drives higher revenue yields, which offset moderately higher funding costs and the returns exceed our hurdles despite higher expected net credit losses on the segment. As previously indicated, we continue to mitigate the impact of the segment on our overall credit performance by growing our auto secured book, which remains the best performing segment in our portfolio. At the end of the year, the auto secured portfolio had a 30-plus day delinquency rate of 2.6% and the lowest credit losses of all of our products.

正如羅布一直指出的那樣，最近幾季我們有意傾向於高利潤率小額貸款的成長，並且我們預計未來幾季我們的小額貸款規模將繼續有節制地成長。這項投資組合帶來了更高的收益，抵消了略高的融資成本，儘管該部門預期淨信貸損失較高，但回報仍超過了我們的預期。如前所述，我們繼續透過增加汽車擔保帳簿來減輕該部分對我們整體信貸表現的影響，這仍然是我們投資組合中表現最好的部分。截至年底，汽車擔保投資組合的 30 天以上拖欠率為 2.6%，是我們所有產品中信用損失最低的。

Looking ahead to the first quarter, while we expect to originate higher loan volumes than in the prior year. The first quarter is always our softest originations quarter because of the seasonal impact of tax refunds. We anticipate our ending net receivables to be roughly flat to down $5 million sequentially in the first quarter compared to a $27 million sequential run off in the first quarter of 2024. With the exact level of ending receivables dependent on the strength of the 2025 tax season.

展望第一季度，我們預期貸款發放量將比上年增加。由於退稅的季節性影響，第一季始終是我們業務發起最疲軟的季度。我們預計，第一季的期末淨應收帳款將基本持平或季減 500 萬美元，而 2024 年第一季的季減為 2,700 萬美元。期末應收帳款的具體水準取決於 2025 年稅收季節的強度。

This is an improvement from our normal first quarter liquidation levels. Thanks to growth in newly opened branches and our efforts to lean back into growth across our network. We expect our average net receivables to be up roughly $35 million sequentially. In the balance of the year, we will take further advantage of high levels of consumer demand to drive quality portfolio growth, particularly in our auto secured and higher margin portfolios, a continuation of our barbell strategy. However, we'll remain selective in approving borrowers while continuing to monitor the economy. And as always, we'll focus on originating loans that maximize our margins and bottom line results.

這比我們第一季的正常清算水準有所改善。這得益於新開設分公司的成長以及我們為整個網路重新實現成長所做的努力。我們預計平均淨應收帳款將較上季增加約 3,500 萬美元。在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們將進一步利用高水準的消費者需求來推動優質投資組合的成長，特別是我們的汽車擔保和高利潤率投資組合，這是我們槓鈴策略的延續。不過，我們將繼續選擇性地批准借款人，同時繼續監測經濟狀況。像往常一樣，我們將專注於發放能夠最大限度提高利潤和獲利結果的貸款。

Turning to payday, total revenues grew to a record $155 million in the fourth quarter up 9% from the prior year period. Our total revenue yield and interest and fee yield were 33.4% and 29.8% respectively up 110 basis points and 100 basis points year over year respectively. The increase in yields is due to a mix of pricing changes, growth in our higher margin small loan business improved credit performance. The impact of the special loan sale in the prior year period and the release of credit insurance reserves in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, we expect total revenue yield to decline by roughly 90 basis points sequentially consistent with seasonal patterns.

談到發薪日，第四季總營收成長至創紀錄的 1.55 億美元，比去年同期成長 9%。我們的總收入收益率和利息及費用收益率分別為33.4%和29.8%，年比分別上升110個基點和100個基點。收益率的成長是由於價格變化、利潤率較高的小額貸款業務的成長以及信貸業績的改善等多種因素所造成的。去年同期專案貸款出售和第四季信用保險準備金釋放的影響。在第一季度，我們預計總收益率將環比下降約 90 個基點，與季節性模式一致。

Moving to page 9, our portfolio continues to perform well. Our 30 plus day delinquency rate says a quarter ends with 7.7% up 80 basis points year over year, but 10 basis points better than the prior year period when adjusting for the special loan sale in the fourth quarter of 2023. Our net credit losses of $50.2 million were better than our outlook and our annualized net credit loss rate of 10.8% was 430 basis points better than last year in large part due to the loan sale in the fourth quarter of 2023.

轉到第 9 頁，我們的投資組合繼續表現良好。我們的 30 多天拖欠率表明，本季末為 7.7%，比去年同期上漲 80 個基點，但如果根據 2023 年第四季的特殊貸款銷售進行調整，則比去年同期好 10 個基點。我們的淨信用損失為 5,020 萬美元，優於我們的預期，我們的年化淨信用損失率為 10.8%，比去年同期好 430 個基點，這在很大程度上要歸功於 2023 年第四季的貸款出售。

Adjusting for the loan sale, our net credit loss rate was 110 basis points better year over year as the credit performance of our portfolio has improved materially. We also estimate that the growth in our portfolio of loans having greater than 36% APR has negatively impacted both our delinquency rate and our net credit loss rate by 20 basis points year over year. However, the higher yields on this portfolio more than make up for the credit drag resulting in overall improved margins.

經貸款銷售調整後，我們的淨信用損失率較上年同期降低了 110 個基點，因為我們投資組合的信用表現大幅改善。我們還估計，我們的貸款組合中年利率超過 36% 的成長對我們的拖欠率和淨信用損失率產生了負面影響，年比增加了 20 個基點。不過，該投資組合的較高收益率足以彌補信貸拖累，從而整體提高利潤率。

Page 10 provides additional information the performance of our front book and back book portfolios. The front book ended the quarter at 89% of our total book compared to 86% at the end of the third quarter. The front book carries a 7.2% delinquency rate compared to 11.9% on the backbook. The backbook accounted for 14% of our 30-plus day delinquency and contributed 40 basis points for our total portfolio delinquency rate. Despite representing only 9% of the portfolio at quarter end. The backbook contributed 60 basis points for our total portfolio net credit loss rate and our front book and back book reserve rates are 10.2% and 14.1% respectively.

第 10 頁提供了有關我們前書和後書投資組合表現的附加資訊。本季末前期帳簿佔總帳簿的 89%，而第三季末則為 86%。前帳簿的拖欠率為 7.2%，而後帳簿的拖欠率為 11.9%。帳簿管理機構的拖欠率占我們 30 天以上拖欠率的 14%，並為我們總投資組合的拖欠率貢獻了 40 個基點。儘管截至季末，其僅佔投資組合的 9%。後帳簿為我們的總投資組合淨信用損失率貢獻了 60 個基點，我們的前帳簿和後帳簿準備率分別為 10.2% 和 14.1%。

We continue to be pleased with the way that our front book is performing compared to the backbook. The front book continues to season at a lower level of loss despite the growth in our higher rate, small loan business, which will benefit our 2025 results. Overall, we continue to see the benefits of our prudent underwriting in our credit metrics.

與後台帳本相比，我們仍然對前台帳本的表現感到滿意。儘管我們的高利率小額貸款業務有所增長，但前期帳簿的虧損繼續保持在較低水平，這將有利於我們 2025 年的業績。整體而言，我們繼續看到審慎承保對我們的信用指標帶來的好處。

In the first quarter, we expect our delinquency rate to improve due to the seasonal benefit of payments generated by tax refunds depending upon the strength of the tax season. We anticipate that our net credit losses will be approximately $60 million in the first quarter or a net credit loss rate of approximately 12.7%. As a reminder, our net credit loss rate in the first quarter of 2024 included 270 basis points of benefit from the fourth quarter 2023 loan sale, but we will not experience a similar benefit in the first quarter of this year. Adjusted for the loan sale benefit in the first quarter of 2024, we expect that our net credit loss rate in the first quarter of this year will be 60 basis points better year over year.

在第一季度，我們預計我們的拖欠率將會改善，因為根據稅收季節的強度，退稅將產生季節性效益。我們預計第一季的淨信用損失約為 6,000 萬美元，或淨信用損失率約為 12.7%。提醒一下，我們 2024 年第一季的淨信用損失率包括 2023 年第四季貸款銷售帶來的 270 個基點收益，但今年第一季我們不會獲得類似的收益。經 2024 年第一季的貸款銷售收益調整後，我們預計今年第一季的淨信用損失率將年減 60 個基點。

Turning to page 11, our fourth quarter allowance for credit losses, reserve rate decreased slightly to 10.5%. Our strong receivables growth required us to increase our reserves by $7.4 million in the quarter as we reserve for our lifetime losses upon origination. As a quarter end, the allowance was $199.5 million and assumed a 2025 year end unemployment rate of 5.1%. Within the quarter end allowance, we maintained a reserve of $1.8 million for 10 basis points for losses associated with hurricane helene that should roll through in the second quarter of 2025. Looking to the first quarter subject to economic conditions and portfolio performance, we expect our loan loss reserve rate to remain flat 10.5% at the end of the quarter.

翻到第 11 頁，我們第四季的信用損失準備率略有下降，至 10.5%。我們強勁的應收帳款成長要求我們在本季增加 740 萬美元的儲備金，因為我們為發起時的終身損失儲備金。截至季末，該準備金為 1.995 億美元，假設 2025 年底失業率為 5.1%。在季末準備金中，我們保留了 180 萬美元的儲備金，佔 10 個基點，用於應對 2025 年第二季颶風海倫造成的損失。展望第一季，受經濟狀況和投資組合表現的影響，我們預計本季末貸款損失準備金率將維持在 10.5% 的水平。

Flipping to page 12, we continue to closely manage our spending while still investing in our growth capabilities and strategic initiatives. Our G&A expenses of $64.6 million in the fourth quarter were down modestly year over year and we're better than our outlook due in part to continued aggressive management of our personnel expenses.

翻到第 12 頁，我們繼續密切管理我們的支出，同時仍在投資我們的成長能力和策略計畫。我們第四季的一般及行政開支為 6,460 萬美元，年比略有下降，而且我們的業績好於預期，部分原因是我們繼續積極管理人事開支。

Our annualized operating expense ratio was 14% in the fourth quarter, 80 basis points better than the prior year period or 30 basis points better when adjusting for the fourth quarter 2023 restructuring. On a normalized basis, revenue growth outpaced G&A expense growth by 5.8 times. In the first quarter, we expect G&A expenses to increase to roughly $65 million to $65.5 million. The increase in G&A expense is attributable to further investments in growth and our strategic initiatives including the opening of an additional eight branches in the first quarter and increased expenses from servicing a larger number of accounts.

我們第四季的年化營業費用率為 14%，比去年同期高出 80 個基點，經 2023 年第四季重組調整後高出 30 個基點。以正常化標準計算，收入增幅是一般及行政開支增幅的 5.8 倍。我們預計第一季的 G&A 費用將增加至約 6,500 萬美元至 6,550 萬美元。一般及行政費用的增加歸因於對成長和策略措施的進一步投資，包括第一季度開設另外 8 家分行以及服務更多帳戶而增加的費用。

We also continue to invest in technology and data initiatives to benefit future performance. Moving forward, we'll continue to meticulously manage expenses while also investing in our core business in ways that will improve our operating efficiency over time and ensure our long term success and profitability.

我們也將繼續投資於技術和數據計劃，以提高未來的績效。展望未來，我們將繼續精心管理費用，同時投資我們的核心業務，以提高我們的營運效率並確保我們的長期成功和獲利能力。

Turning to pages 13 and 14. Our interest expense for the fourth quarter was $19.8 million or 4.2% of average net receivables on an annualized basis better than our outlook on lower average debt and lower rates. In November, we closed a $250 million asset backed securitization transaction at a weighted average coupon of 5.34% and 85 basis point improvement over our prior ABS deal. The class A notes of the securitization received a top rating of AAA from Standard & Poor's and Morningstar DBRS. And we experienced significant demand across all classes of notes including from new investors again, demonstrating the strength of our ABS platform.

翻到第 13 和 14 頁。我們第四季的利息支出為 1,980 萬美元，佔年化平均淨應收帳款的 4.2%，優於我們對較低平均債務和較低利率的預期。11 月份，我們完成了價值 2.5 億美元的資產支持證券化交易，加權平均票面利率為 5.34%，比我們之前的 ABS 交易提高了 85 個基點。本次資產支持證券的A級票據獲得了標準普爾和晨星DBRS的AAA最高評級。我們所有類別的票據都面臨著巨大的需求，包括來自新投資者的需求，證明了我們的 ABS 平台的實力。

As of December 31, 79% of our debt is fixed rate with a weighted average coupon of 4.1% and a weighted average revolving duration of 1.3 years. In the first quarter, we expect interest expense to be approximately $20 million to $20.5 million or 4.2% to 4.3% of our average net receivables. As our lower fixed rate funding matures and we continue to grow using variable rate debt, our interest expense will increase as a percentage of average net receivables.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們 79% 的負債為固定利率，加權平均票面利率為 4.1%，加權平均循環期限為 1.3 年。在第一季度，我們預計利息支出約為 2,000 萬美元至 2,050 萬美元，占我們平均淨應收帳款的 4.2% 至 4.3%。隨著我們較低的固定利率融資到期以及我們繼續使用浮動利率債務進行成長，我們的利息支出占平均淨應收帳款的百分比將會增加。

In addition, our balance sheet remains strong and we continue to maintain ample liquidity to fund our growth. We have nearly $200 million of lifetime loan loss reserves as well as $357 million of stockholders' equity or approximately $35.67 in book value per share. We will continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity and borrowing capacity, diversified and staggered funding sources and a sensible interest rate management strategy.

此外，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們繼續保持充足的流動性來為我們的成長提供資金。我們擁有近 2 億美元的終身貸款損失準備金以及 3.57 億美元的股東權益，或每股帳面價值約 35.67 美元。我們將繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，充足的流動性和借貸能力，多元化和分階段的資金來源以及合理的利率管理策略。

In terms of income taxes, we incurred an effective tax rate of 22.3% in the fourth quarter. And for the first quarter of 2025 we expect an effective tax rate of roughly 24.5% prior to discrete items. On the bottom line, we expect that our first quarter net income will be roughly $7 million. As a reminder, last year's first quarter, net income benefited by $2.6 million from the fourth quarter 2023 special loan sale or $3.4 million a pretax basis. Of the 3.4 million pretax benefit, $1.5 million was attributable to lower credit costs and $1.9 million was attributable to higher revenue from lower revenue reversals. As we've discussed, we won't experience a similar benefit in the first quarter of this year because we didn't close a similar special loan sale in the fourth quarter of 2024.

在所得稅方面，我們第四季的有效稅率為22.3%。對於 2025 年第一季度，我們預計扣除單獨項目前的實際稅率約為 24.5%。總體而言，我們預計第一季淨收入約為 700 萬美元。提醒一下，去年第一季度，淨收入因 2023 年第四季特別貸款出售而受益 260 萬美元，或稅前 340 萬美元。在 340 萬美元的稅前收益中，150 萬美元歸因於信貸成本降低，190 萬美元歸因於收入逆轉減少帶來的收入增加。正如我們所討論的，我們在今年第一季不會獲得類似的收益，因為我們沒有在 2024 年第四季完成類似的特殊貸款銷售。

In addition, this year's first quarter, net income will reflect our efforts to lean back into growth. Consistent with the first quarter guidance that I provided earlier, we expect first quarter 2025 revenue to be up year over year on higher average net receivables despite the loan sale benefit in the prior year period. While our credit performance has improved and our adjusted net credit loss rate will be better year over year, our net credit losses will be up from the prior year because of the prior year loan sale benefit.

此外，今年第一季的淨收入將反映我們重回成長的努力。與我之前提供的第一季指引一致，儘管去年同期有貸款銷售收益，但我們預計 2025 年第一季的營收將年增，因為平均淨應收帳款增加。雖然我們的信用表現有所改善，且調整後的淨信用損失率將逐年改善，但由於上年的貸款銷售收益，我們的淨信用損失將比上年有所增加。

Our investment in growth will also increase our provisioning expense in the first quarter of this year as we expect to largely maintain our portfolio size in the quarter rather than benefit from a reserve relief from a large liquidation of our portfolio like we had in the first quarter of last year. We will also incur incrementally higher G&A expenses to support the larger portfolio and our newly added branches and interest expense will be higher due to our larger portfolio size and the increase in prevailing interest rates.

我們對成長的投資也將增加今年第一季的撥備支出，因為我們預計本季我們的投資組合規模將基本保持不變，而不是像去年第一季那樣從投資組合大規模清算而獲得的準備金減免中獲益。我們還將逐步增加一般及行政開支以支持更大的投資組合和新增的分支機構，並且由於我們投資組合規模的擴大和現行利率的上升，利息開支也將更高。

As Rob noted, we aren't yet providing full year net income guidance, but we're committed to increasing our net income meaningfully in 2025. I will however, provide a reminder that consistent with typical seasonal patterns. We expect that our net income will be lower in the first half of the year than the second half of the year as we begin to provision for loan growth and due to seasonally higher net credit losses, particularly as our remaining backbook portfolio holds the loss. Net income will then increase materially in the second half of the year as we benefit on the revenue line from a larger portfolio size and on the credit and revenue lines from seasonally lower net credit losses.

正如 Rob 所說，我們尚未提供全年淨收入指引，但我們致力於在 2025 年大幅增加我們的淨收入。不過，我要提醒大家，這與典型的季節性模式一致。我們預計，由於我們開始為貸款成長提列準備金，且季節性淨信貸損失較高，特別是我們剩餘的帳簿投資組合承受著損失，因此上半年的淨收入將低於下半年。由於我們受益於更大的投資組合規模帶來的收入線以及季節性較低的淨信貸損失所帶來的信貸和收入線，淨收入將在下半年大幅增加。

Aside from investing in our growth and strategic initiatives, we continue to allocate excess capital to our dividend and $30 million share repurchase programs. Our Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.30 per common share for the first quarter. The dividend will be paid on March 13, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 20, 2025. Pursuant to our buyback program, we repurchased a little over 100,000 shares of our common stock in the fourth quarter at a weighted average price of $33.83 per share.

除了投資我們的成長和戰略計劃外，我們還繼續將剩餘資本分配給我們的股息和 3000 萬美元的股票回購計劃。我們的董事會宣布第一季每股普通股股利 0.30 美元。股利將於 2025 年 3 月 13 日支付給 2025 年 2 月 20 日營業結束時登記在冊的股東。根據我們的回購計劃，我們在第四季度以每股 33.83 美元的加權平均價格回購了略多於 100,000 股普通股。

Finally, I'll note that we provide a summary of our first quarter 2025 guidance on page 15 of our earnings supplement. That concludes my remarks and I'll now turn the call back over to Rob.

最後，我要指出的是，我們在收益補充文件第 15 頁提供了 2025 年第一季指引的摘要。我的發言到此結束，現在我將電話轉回給羅布。

Thanks, Harp. Once again, I'd like to thank the regional team for its excellent work in 2024. We're proud of how we performed and of the results we delivered for our shareholders.

謝謝，哈普。我再次感謝地區團隊在 2024 年的出色工作。我們對我們的表現以及為股東帶來的成果感到自豪。

In the fourth quarter, we generated strong portfolio on revenue growth, continued to improve our yields, operating efficiency, and portfolio credit performance and posted solid bottom line results. The quarter capped an impressive year in 2024 where we materially improved our operating and financial metrics on nearly all lines.

第四季度，我們的投資組合收入成長強勁，收益率、營運效率和投資組合信貸表現持續提高，並取得了穩健的獲利績效。該季度為 2024 年帶來了令人印象深刻的一年，在這一年中，我們幾乎所有產品的營運和財務指標都得到了大幅改善。

Looking ahead to 2025, we're excited that our portfolio credit quality and strengthening macroeconomic conditions are conducive to a return to more normalized growth. We'll pursue a minimum of 10% portfolio growth in 2025 while continuing to invest in our strategic initiatives. These efforts will enable us to improve our net income and returns in the near and long term. Thank you again for your time and interest. I'll now open up the call for questions.

展望 2025 年，我們很高興看到我們的投資組合信用品質和不斷加強的宏觀經濟條件有利於恢復更正常化的成長。我們將在 2025 年實現至少 10% 的投資組合成長，同時繼續投資於我們的策略計畫。這些努力將使我們能夠在短期和長期內提高我們的淨收入和回報。再次感謝您的時間和關注。我現在開始回答提問。

Operator, could you please open the line?

接線員，可以接通電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) John Hecht, Jefferies.

（操作員指示）約翰·赫克特（John Hecht），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

It just your product mix between the large and smaller installment loans has been pretty consistent for a while. As you go -- as we go into '25, is there anything we can think -- should think about in terms of a mix shift in products, including the auto secured product?

只是大額分期貸款和小額分期貸款之間的產品組合在一段時間內一直保持相當一致。當我們進入 25 年後，我們是否可以考慮——應該考慮產品組合轉變方面的問題，包括汽車擔保產品？

Yeah, we're going to continue to lean into the auto secured business. Our barbell strategy is working very well. That growth in the auto secured business is balancing out, the growth in the higher rate small loan business, which as you know, is the fuel for our business to graduate those customers into large loans. So our strategy, going into 2025 is going to be, consistent with what we did in 2024.

是的，我們將繼續傾向於汽車擔保業務。我們的槓鈴策略非常有效。汽車擔保業務的成長與高利率小額貸款業務的成長相平衡，正如你所知，這是我們的業務的動力，使我們的這些客戶能夠獲得大額貸款。因此，我們 2025 年的策略將與我們 2024 年的策略保持一致。

And then I know the front book is getting better to the -- relative to the back book, but maybe anything you can -- any I guess details you can share with us on maybe the '24 vintage versus the '23 vintages or any early looks to the relative performance of that.

然後我知道前書相對於後書來說越來越好，但也許您可以與我們分享任何細節，例如 24 年份與 23 年份的比較，或任何早期對其相對錶現的看法。

Yeah, I mean, I would tell you that the new originations that we're putting on are performing, right in line with our expectations, which is good and I think you can see that, again, on the front book, back book split that we provide in the supplement. I mean, the delinquencies on the front book and again, delinquencies are still seizing on the front book is 7.2%. And on the back book, it's 11.9% and even the reserve levels is indicative, we're at 10.2% on the front book and 14.1% on the back book.

是的，我的意思是，我想告訴你，我們正在推出的新產品的表現完全符合我們的預期，這是件好事，我想你可以在我們在補充材料中提供的前後賬簿分割中再次看到這一點。我的意思是，前帳簿的拖欠率，以及前帳簿上的拖欠率仍然為 7.2%。就後期帳面而言，該比率為 11.9%，甚至儲備水準也具有指示性，前端帳面比率為 10.2%，後期帳面比率為 14.1%。

And of course, we reserve for lifetime losses. So that's indicative of how the portfolio is performing. So, yeah, we're happy about the progress and tightening of the book and how that's flowing through the numbers. I mean, naturally when we, move up into the higher rate business that is putting additional pressure, on the small loans, delinquencies and losses, but we're getting paid for it because of the higher yield.

當然，我們會為終身損失預留資金。這顯示了投資組合的表現如何。是的，我們對這本書的進展和收緊以及它在數字上的流動感到高興。我的意思是，當我們進入高利率業務時，小額貸款、拖欠和損失自然會面臨額外的壓力，但我們會因為更高的收益率而獲得回報。

And then any comments on, how interest rate, if we get one versus more than one rate cut this year, what that would -- how that might impact you guys on the marginal perspective?

然後，您對利率有何評論？

So, we've obviously calculated that John, it's not something that we're going to disclose. But we've looked at 25 basis points plus or minus on both our variable and our fixed rate debt if we were to enter the market for a new fixed rate debt in 2025, which we plan on doing.

所以，我們顯然已經計算過，約翰，這不是我們要透露的事情。但是，如果我們要在 2025 年進入新的固定利率債務市場，我們會考慮將浮動利率債務和固定利率債務的上下浮動 25 個基點，而我們計劃在 2025 年這樣做。

(Operator Instructions) David Scharf, Citizens JMP.

（操作員指示）David Scharf，公民 JMP。

Hey, Rob wondering if you can just get a little clarification or really specifics on what indicators you're seeing out there that give you conviction about consumer health improving and I primarily ask because we've had a number of lenders in the last week or so, still express some caution. And I think in the words of one of them, a big competitor of yours, they said, we're not necessarily seeing an improving consumer, we just have better consumers on our books after two years of credit tightening and I think they were very clear to draw a distinction between those two.

嘿，羅布，我想知道你是否可以稍微澄清一下，或者俱體說明一下你看到的哪些指標讓你確信消費者健康狀況正在改善，我主要問這個問題是因為在過去一周左右的時間裡，我們有許多貸款機構仍然表達了一些謹慎態度。我認為，用你們其中一位大競爭對手的話來說，我們並不一定看到消費者狀況的改善，經過兩年的信貸緊縮，我們只是看到了更好的消費者，我認為他們非常清楚地區分了這兩者。

But you seem to be expressing a fair amount of confidence that it's more than just your credit tightening that -- credit quality on the ground is improving. Are there any green flags you can highlight for us, like what specifically you're seeing in the consumer? Is it either savings rate, payment rate, anything to help us out?

但您似乎表達了相當大的信心，相信這不僅僅是信貸緊縮——實際信貸品質正在改善。您能為我們強調什麼綠色訊號嗎，例如您在消費者身上具體看到的是什麼？是儲蓄率、支付率還是其他什麼可以幫助我們？

So, David, great question. I think it's both right. And, it's a little hard to determine, how much of one versus the other is coming through your portfolio. But certainly tightening means that we put better credit on. And so that's consistent with whatever the other competitor said. I think when we look out going forward and we look at the progression of what's happened this year. I mean, if you look at unemployment still low, you look at real wage growth.

所以，大衛，這個問題問得很好。我認為兩者都正確。而且，很難確定你的投資組合中這兩種資產的比例是多少。但緊縮政策無疑意味著我們將提供更好的信貸。這與其他競爭對手的說法一致。我認為，當我們展望未來並看看今年發生的事情的進展時。我的意思是，如果你看到失業率仍然很低，你就會看到實際薪資成長。

I think the open jobs have come down a little bit to the $6 million or $7 million range. But again, for our customer set, it's over indexed that way. I've heard of a thesis out there and look, I'm not going to put a lot of weight on this one, but, if immigration is slowed and there's less, workers coming in for, lower paying jobs that's going to put more pressure on upward on wages for our customer set. So I think that there's a lot of things in the backdrop.

我認為空缺職位的薪資水準已經略微下降至 600 萬美元或 700 萬美元的範圍內。但對於我們的客戶群來說，這種方式的索引量太高了。我聽說過一個論點，我不會太強調這個論點，但是，如果移民速度放緩，流入低薪工作的工人減少，這將對我們的客戶群的工資上漲帶來更大的壓力。所以我認為背景有很多事情。

We're being balanced in our growth. With a 10% growth, I think given the environment and the macro environment is pretty good. But of course, we're very mindful of other things that could happen whether impacts of tariffs and other things and we would -- we have the ability to adjust very quickly if we see anything start to cause pressure on our portfolio.

我們的成長正在保持平衡。考慮到環境和宏觀環境，我認為成長 10% 已經相當好了。但當然，我們非常注意可能發生的其他事情，無論是關稅還是其他因素的影響，如果我們發現任何事情開始對我們的投資組合造成壓力，我們有能力迅速做出調整。

So, by and large, I think that the customer is healing. They certainly haven't completely gotten through the hangover effects of the high inflationary period and there's still pockets of inflation. As you know, inflation is not back down to the 2%. So we're watching it all. But I think from where we're at -- we're feeling good about putting on a minimum of 10% in hard growth. But we have the ability to grow much faster. But, I think we temper that with all the things I've just said.

因此，總的來說，我認為顧客正在康復。他們顯然還沒有完全擺脫高通膨時期的後遺症，而且仍然存在通膨現象。正如你們所知，通貨膨脹率還沒有回落到2%。我們正在關注這一切。但我認為，從我們目前的狀況來看——我們對實現至少 10% 的硬成長感到滿意。但我們有能力實現更快的成長。但我認為我們可以用我剛才說的所有事情來緩和這種情況。

No, it all sounds very constructive. And maybe follow up on the competitive front, we've obviously seen a lot more private credit funds invest in the personal loan space in the last18 months. I'm curious in your small loan category, that higher yielding paper is -- are you seeing any additional sources of funding come into that asset class or is that a more benign area to be competing in right now?

不，這一切聽起來都很有建設性。從競爭方面來看，我們顯然看到過去 18 個月中有更多的私人信貸基金投資於個人貸款領域。我很好奇，在您的小額貸款類別中，收益更高的票據是——您是否看到任何額外的資金來源進入該資產類別，或者這是否是一個目前更溫和的競爭領域？

Well, it's hard for us to, I mean, on the funding side, what funding is coming in to support competitors. But when we look at what's happening competitively in that space, I mean, a lot of the folks in the installment loan space cap themselves at 36%. Obviously, there's players that are -- triple digits but in the space that we play out, which is, I would call it marginally above the 36% rate, which we have -- which we believe is, appropriate for our customers to give them access to credit and help them improve the credit profile and graduate them to a lower rate loan. I don't -- we're not really seeing any change in the competitive dynamics there in terms of pressure, I think we could grow that space, as fast as we wanted to, but we're being smart about it.

嗯，我們很難，我的意思是，在資金方面，有哪些資金可以支持我們的競爭對手。但當我們觀察該領域的競爭情況時，我發現許多分期貸款領域的公司都將自己的貸款上限設定為 36%。顯然，有一些參與者是三位數的，但在我們發揮作用的空間內，我認為這個利率略高於 36%，我們認為這個利率適合我們的客戶獲得信貸，幫助他們改善信用狀況，並逐步獲得較低利率的貸款。我沒有——就壓力而言，我們並沒有真正看到那裡的競爭動態發生任何變化，我認為我們可以按照我們想要的速度擴大這個空間，但我們對此很聰明。

And maybe just one last one following up on that thought. This is not meant to be a loaded question, but you did a good job of highlighting the trade-off between growing faster and some of the accounting realities around CECL provisioning. But if you set aside the accounting, what are some of the -- ignoring the accounting and volatility, what are some of the factors that drive your decision about maybe not striking while the iron is hot as much as you could?

也許這只是最後一個跟進這個想法的方法。這不是一個引導性的問題，但你很好地強調了更快成長和 CECL 撥備的一些會計現實之間的權衡。但是，如果您拋開會計因素，忽略會計和波動性，有哪些因素促使您決定不趁熱打鐵？

Yeah. No, I get it. I mean, look, obviously, there is the optics of the timing from an accounting standpoint, which I'm not convinced the market has ever really looked through and expanded the PEs in the installment loan space for the CECL effect. I think it's -- you're in a naturally a higher-risk business in subprime or near subprime, but you're reserving everything Day 1. And I don't think PE expansion has gone along with the accounting change.

是的。不，我明白了。我的意思是，從會計的角度來看，顯然存在時間上的光學問題，我不相信市場曾經真正研究過並擴大分期貸款領域的 PE 以了解 CECL 效應。我認為——你從事的是次級或接近次級的自然高風險業務，但你在第一天就預留了一切。我不認為 PE 擴張與會計變化同步。

But putting that aside, I mean, look, it's always a question of having capital to grow, which we do, and Harp's talked about the ample room on the balance sheet to grow the business. So we're not constrained there, which is good. And then it's really about execution in terms of how much investment dollars we put to work relative to the timing of the return back on those investment dollars. And I think we do a good job of balancing that out, but we also know that we can flex up when we feel the time is right to flex up.

但拋開這一點不談，我的意思是，你看，這始終是一個擁有成長資本的問題，我們確實有成長資本，而且哈普談到了資產負債表上有足夠的空間來成長業務。因此我們不受任何限制，這很好。然後這實際上與執行有關，即我們投入了多少投資以及這些投資的回報時間。我認為我們在平衡這一點上做得很好，但我們也知道，當我們覺得時機成熟時，我們可以靈活應對。

I mean -- and I'll give you a perfect example. In the fourth quarter, we flexed up and added more branches; put that in additional branches into the first quarter. And those branches on average in a couple of years are going to be worth -- have $7 million of balances. So we're just being smart about how we invest and make sure we get the returns to -- in a timely way for those investments. And I think it bodes well for the future.

我的意思是──我會給你一個完美的例子。第四季度，我們加大力度，增加了更多分支機構；將其放入第一季的附加分支中。幾年後這些分公司的平均價值將達到——700 萬美元的餘額。因此，我們只是明智地進行投資並確保及時獲得投資回報。我認為這對未來來說是一個好兆頭。

John Rowan, Janney.

約翰羅文、詹尼。

Just so I'm clear, you are guiding for net income to be above $41 million that you reported in 2024. Is that correct?

我要明確的是，您預計淨收入將超過 2024 年報告的 4,100 萬美元。那正確嗎？

We've only guided to first quarter income, John, and we've given a specific number on that this quarter, which we've not done previously. The only thing I can say right now is that we are committed that net income, if all of the factors that are currently at play currently work out the way that we think they are, that we would be higher in net income meaningfully, as we said in the prepared remarks.

約翰，我們隻公佈了第一季的收入預期，並且我們在本季度給出了一個具體的數字，這是我們以前沒有做過的。我現在唯一能說的是，我們致力於確保淨收入，如果當前起作用的所有因素都按照我們認為的方式發揮作用，那麼我們的淨收入將會大幅增加，就像我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣。

Yeah. I mean I think we said, John, look, we could grow the net income up to 30%, but we're being mindful of the growth effect on that as well. And so that's why we kind of laid it out the way we did.

是的。我的意思是，我想我們說過，約翰，看，我們可以將淨收入成長到 30%，但我們也要留意成長對這一點的影響。這就是我們如此佈局的原因。

I thought you said that we were going to grow net income in 2025. I didn't hear that correctly.

我以為您說過我們將在 2025 年增加淨收入。我沒聽清楚。

No, we did. We said we would.

不，我們做到了。我們說過我們會的。

We would grow. But we also said that this business could grow as much as 30%, but we pointed out the growth effect from CECL on that, so.

我們會成長。但我們也說過，這項業務最多可以成長 30%，但我們指出了 CECL 對此的成長效應，所以。

No, no, I get it. You had $41 million of net income in 2024. And if you're growing, that means you would have to be somewhere north of that for 2025.

不不不，我明白了。2024 年，您的淨收入為 4,100 萬美元。如果你在成長，那就意味著到 2025 年你必須達到這個數字的某個水準。

Correct.

正確的。

That is right.

沒錯。

That's what I wanted to clarify. Okay. And then as far as G&A expenses, I mean, is $65 million, give or take, a little bit. Is that the right run rate to use going forward?

這就是我想澄清的。好的。至於 G&A 費用，我的意思是，大約是 6500 萬美元。這是今後應使用的正確運行率嗎？

Yeah, $65 million to $65.5 million is the guidance that we just gave for the first quarter.

是的，6500 萬美元到 6550 萬美元是我們剛剛給出的第一季預期。

Okay. And then, is there any -- one of your peers guided to just a natural drift down in the cost of funds even if rates stay the same as some of the prior fixed cost stuff rolls off. Is that -- is there any type of benefit that you guys have from a funding profile, just static, if -- forget the differences in funding one product versus the other, just static if rates stay the same?

好的。然後，有沒有哪位同儕指導說，即使利率保持不變，隨著先前一些固定成本項目的取消，資金成本也會自然下降。那是——你們從融資狀況中獲得了什麼好處嗎？

So I think what we have to think about for us is our securitizations that we have put on in the past that would be maturing. And those would reset, John, at a higher rate than what we put them on. If you look at our cost of funds, we've done a really good job of keeping them around 4% for several quarters. We are now doing new securitizations, and we had a really good print on our last securitization.

因此，我認為我們必須考慮的是我們過去進行的那些即將到期的證券化。約翰，它們的重置速度會比我們設定的速度更高。如果你看看我們的資金成本，我們幾個季度以來一直將其保持在 4% 左右，這確實做得很好。我們現在正在進行新的證券化，我們上一次的證券化表現非常好。

But as old securitizations that are around 3% mature, you will be putting them on at a higher rate. However, the other thing to remember is variable rates should come down depending upon how many rate cuts you believe are going to happen in 2025. So you will see our fixed -- our securitizations at the fixed rates resetting at higher rates than what they've been at historically, but you should see variable rate debt come down if interest rate -- if the interest rate curves reflect any cuts.

但隨著約 3% 的舊證券化到期，您將以更高的利率持有它們。然而，要記住的另一件事是，浮動利率應該會根據您認為 2025 年將發生多少降息而下降。因此，您將看到我們的固定利率證券化以比歷史更高的利率重置，但如果利率曲線反映出任何削減，您應該會看到浮動利率債務下降。

Yeah. And John, the other thing I'd say is we've done such a good job of holding our cost of funds and locking in funding early that we never went up like some competitors. And so the coming down is not in our book because we're fixed at a low rate. So there'll be a natural creep up in cost of funds, of course, mitigated depending on what the Fed does over the course of the year.

是的。約翰，我想說的另一件事是，我們在控制資金成本和提前鎖定資金方面做得很好，因此我們從未像一些競爭對手那樣上漲。因此，我們的利率不會下降，因為我們已經固定在較低水準。因此，資金成本會自然上升，當然，這取決於聯準會在今年的舉措。

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

文森特凱恩蒂克（Vincent Caintic），BTIG。

Going back to credit. So I mean, you sound more positive about the new originations that you're getting in all the different categories of your originations. Just wondering if you could talk about sort of the credit reserve rate that you're expecting on these new originations. And I'm guessing you should be expecting both credit improvement as well as maybe the credit reserves coming down over the course of 2025. So I just wanted to get your views on that.

回到信用。所以我的意思是，你對於在所有不同類別的發起中獲得的新發起聽起來更加積極。我只是想知道您是否可以談談您預期的這些新貸款的信用準備金利率。我猜你應該會預期到 2025 年，信貸將會改善，而信貸儲備也可能會下降。所以我只是想聽聽你對此的看法。

Yeah. What I would tell you is, I mean, we guided in the first quarter, I think, to stay flat to the fourth quarter. What I would tell you is this is first quarter is the most impactful quarter for the industry because of tax season. And I think that, that plus obviously, just getting another quarter's worth of understanding what's happening from a macro standpoint as well as what's happening from a policy standpoint in D.C., I think will help us give you kind of better guidance on that.

是的。我想告訴你的是，我的意思是，我們在第一季的預期是，到第四季將保持穩定。我想告訴你的是，由於稅收季節，第一季是該行業受影響最大的一個季度。我認為，這一點加上顯然只需再花一個季度來了解華盛頓的宏觀角度和政策角度發生的事情，將有助於我們為您提供更好的指導。

Now, I think if you look at the reserve levels that we have on the front book at 10.2%, you see -- and that's a lifetime reserve. You can see that's where you start evolving to once the back book comes off. So that's what I would say to you.

現在，我認為，如果你看看我們前帳簿上的準備金水平，即 10.2%，你就會看到 - 這是終身準備金。一旦把後面的書拿下來，你就會發現這就是你開始進化的地方。這就是我想對你說的話。

Okay, great. And then I guess relatedly, so you provided the commentary that the first half -- or I should say, the second half net income is higher than the first half net income, part of the seasonality. But I guess, should we be thinking that the growth rate on your originations, you would hit the, I guess, the expected level of growth rate. So that's where we're seeing that level of, I guess, net income starting to come in where the reserves aren't overpowering it yet at that point?

好的，太好了。然後我想相關的是，你提供的評論是上半年 - 或者我應該說，下半年的淨收入高於上半年的淨收入，這是季節性的一部分。但我想，我們是否應該認為，您的發起成長率將達到預期的成長率水準。所以，我想這就是我們看到的淨收入開始達到的水平，而儲備金還沒有超過它？

Well, I guess where I would put it is, so the first quarter, we guided to some runoff in the portfolio, which is a lot less runoff in prior years. And part of that is because of the new branches we built and building up the portfolio. And so I think you got a few things going through the dynamics of the profitability. One is just the portfolio growth that we -- the lower runoff that we have in the first quarter.

好吧，我想我會把它放在哪裡？ 所以在第一季度，我們引導投資組合出現一些流失，這比前幾年的流失要少得多。部分原因是我們建立了新的分支機構並擴大了投資組合。所以我認為你已經了解了一些有關盈利動態的事情。一是我們的投資組合成長－第一季的資金流出較低。

But then when you -- on top of that, the rest of the growth will be in the last three quarters of the year. But if you look from a credit standpoint, as the seasonal increase in the first quarter for NCLs moves back down post tax season and you see back book continue to run off, you're going to see the benefit on the bottom line in the second half of the year from the portfolio as well as the better credit performance.

但當你—除此之外，其餘的成長將發生在今年最後三個季度。但如果從信貸角度來看，隨著第一季不良貸款的季節性增長在稅收季節後回落，並且賬簿繼續減少，您將看到下半年投資組合的底線收益以及更好的信貸表現。

Okay. Perfect. That makes sense. And then last one for me since you mentioned a couple of times about the impact of the tax refunds in the first quarter. If we could get what your views are for this year, if there's anything unusual or anything incremental from that?

好的。完美的。這很有道理。這是最後一個問題，因為您幾次提到了第一季退稅的影響。我們是否可以了解您對今年的看法，有沒有什麼不尋常的事情或有什麼進步？

Really too early to tell. I would say we're only just starting to hear on some of our calls about tax refunds. So we're a few weeks away from starting to get any kind of indication on that. So stay tuned on that.

現在說還太早。我想說，我們才剛開始聽到一些關於退稅的電話。因此，我們還需要幾週的時間才能開始得到任何關於這方面的跡象。請繼續關注。

Thank you. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權轉回給大家，以便大家可以發表進一步的評論或結束語。

Yeah. Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining. I think the takeaway here is, from my perspective, Harp's perspective, fourth quarter results is very much indicative of where we are as a business going into 2025. We had solid bottom line growth in 2024. We increased our book value by 8% to $35.70, paid out $1.20 dividend per share, announced the $30 million buyback and purchased about $3.5 million of that in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家的參與。我認為這裡的要點是，從我的角度來看，從哈普的角度來看，第四季度的業績非常能說明我們作為一家企業在進入 2025 年時所處的位置。2024年，我們的利潤實現了穩健的成長。我們將帳面價值提高了 8%，達到 35.70 美元，每股派發了 1.20 美元的股息，宣布回購 3,000 萬美元，並在第四季度購買了其中的約 350 萬美元。

We had record ENR and revenues. As I said, we expect a minimum 10% ENR growth this coming year. And of course, we talked about the growth effect of CECL. Our credit front book is performing as expected. Our barbell strategy is working well because we balance out the low-risk auto-secured with the higher rate small loan business to drive returns, continued expense discipline while investing in growth. And look, being down, we're down in expenses versus prior year.

我們的 ENR 和收入均創下了歷史新高。正如我所說，我們預計今年 ENR 成長率至少為 10%。當然，我們也討論了 CECL 的成長效應。我們的信用帳簿表現符合預期。我們的槓鈴策略之所以效果良好，是因為我們平衡了低風險的汽車擔保貸款和較高利率的小額貸款業務，以推動回報，並在投資成長的同時繼續控制開支。你看，與前一年相比，我們的支出是下降了。

And even without the restructuring, we held expenses pretty modest growth year-on-year. And then, of course, strong balance sheet management. And as Harp said, cost of funds has been hovering around 4% for a lot of quarters. It's actually down 10 basis points versus third quarter and only up 20 basis points versus last year. So all those drivers are putting us in a great position, and we're well placed, I think, to continue our momentum into 2025. So thanks again for joining, and have a good evening.

即使沒有重組，我們的支出比去年同期也保持了相當溫和的成長。然後，當然還有強大的資產負債表管理。正如哈普所說，資金成本在許多季度中一直在 4% 左右徘徊。實際上，與第三季相比下降了 10 個基點，與去年同期相比僅上升了 20 個基點。因此，所有這些驅動因素都使我們處於非常有利的地位，而且我認為，我們有能力將這種勢頭延續到 2025 年。再次感謝您的加入，祝您晚上愉快。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，並享受美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。