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Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Rocket Lab Q3, 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.
感謝您的耐心等待。我叫Eric,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加Rocket Lab 2023年第三季財報電話會議。 (主持人指示)謝謝。
I would now like to turn the call over to Colin Canfield, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在我想把電話轉給投資人關係主管柯林‧坎菲爾德。請講。
Colin Canfield - IR Manager
Colin Canfield - IR Manager
Thank you, Eric. Hello, everyone. We're glad to have you join us for today's conference call to discuss Rocket Lab's third quarter 2023 financial results.
謝謝,Eric。大家好。很高興您參加今天的電話會議,討論 Rocket Lab 2023 年第三季的財務表現。
Before we begin the call, I'd like to remind you that our remarks may contain forward-looking statements that relate to the future performance of the company, and these statements are intended to qualify for the Safe harbor protection from the liability established by Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and factors that could influence our results are highlighted in today's press release and others are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Such statements are based upon information available to the company as of the date hereof and are subject to change for future developments.
在開始電話會議之前,我想提醒您,我們的評論可能包含與公司未來業績相關的前瞻性陳述,這些陳述旨在符合《私人證券訴訟改革法案》規定的安全港責任保護規定。任何此類陳述均不構成對未來業績的保證,可能影響我們業績的因素已在今天的新聞稿中重點介紹,其他因素則包含在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。此類陳述基於本公司截至本新聞稿發布之日掌握的信息,並可能因未來發展而發生變化。
Except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update these statements. Our remarks and press release today also contain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of Regulation G enacted by the SEC. Included in our press release and our supplemental materials are reconciliations of these historical non-GAAP financial measures for the company's comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. This call is also being webcast with the supporting presentation and a replay and copy of the presentation will be available on our website.
除法律要求外,本公司不承擔更新這些聲明的任何義務。我們今天的評論和新聞稿也包含美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 頒布的 G 規則所定義的非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標。我們的新聞稿和補充資料中包含了這些歷史非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標與公司根據公認會計準則 (GAAP) 計算的可比較財務指標的對帳表。本次電話會議也將與配套簡報進行網路直播,簡報的重播和副本將在我們的網站上提供。
Our presenters today are Rocket Lab's Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Peter Beck; and Chief Financial Officer, Adam Spice. After our prepared comments, we will take questions.
今天的演講嘉賓是 Rocket Lab 創辦人兼執行長 Peter Beck 和財務長 Adam Spice。在我們準備好的發言之後,我們將進行提問。
And now, let me turn the call over to Mr. Beck.
現在,讓我把電話轉給貝克先生。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Thanks, Colin, and welcome, everybody, for joining us. Today's presentation, we will go over our key business accomplishments for the third quarter of 2023, as well as further achievements we've made since the end of the quarter. Adam will then talk through our financial results for the third quarter before covering the financial outlook for Q4, 2023. After that, we'll take questions and finish today's call with the near-term conferences we'll be attending.
謝謝科林,歡迎大家加入我們。今天的演講將回顧我們在2023年第三季取得的關鍵業務成就,以及自本季末以來的進一步成就。亞當將介紹我們第三季的財務業績,並展望2023年第四季的財務前景。之後,我們將回答提問,並在今天的電話會議結束時介紹我們近期將參加的會議。
All right, on to what we achieved in the third quarter for the year. Starting with Electron. In July, we launched a mission with [7] satellites with NASA and others, which was the first of 2 back-to-back reusability-focused missions. After successfully deploying the first Mission 7 spacecraft, Electron's first stage was bought back to earth and recovered from the ocean. Then we followed that up with our 40th Electron launch and even more recovery milestones, including the return first stage and the first to launch a reflowing Rutherford engine previously flown on our 26th mission there and back again. The engine performed flawlessly, like a new one, completely validating our pursuit of reusability for Electron and setting us up well to refly an entire engine set as our next major reusability goal.
好吧,接下來我們來談談我們今年第三季所取得的成就。首先是 Electron 火箭。 7 月,我們與 NASA 等機構合作,發射了一項載有 [7] 顆衛星的任務,這是兩次以可重複使用為重點的連續任務中的第一項。在成功部署第一艘 Mission 7 太空船後,Electron 火箭的第一級被帶回地球並從海洋中回收。隨後,我們進行了第 40 次 Electron 火箭發射,並取得了更多回收里程碑,包括第一級返回地球,以及首次發射一台曾在我們第 26 次任務中往返飛行過的回流盧瑟福發動機。這具引擎性能完美,如同新引擎一樣,完全驗證了我們對 Electron 火箭可重複使用性的追求,並為我們重新飛行整套引擎奠定了基礎,這是我們下一個主要的可重複使用目標。
So next, I'll provide a bit of an update for Electron. Following those 2 successful flights, as you know, we unfortunately experienced an anomaly on our 41st mission. It's important to remember that up until this launch, we have had 37 successful orbital missions to place 171 satellites in orbit. And the past 2 years have been flawless with a record of 20 successful missions one after the other. For Flight 41, as soon as the issue occurred, our team jumped into action in the week since the team has been scaring through thousands of channels of flight data and manufacturing data to determine what was the probable root cause. I'll take you through their investigation in detail over the next couple of slides.
接下來,我將介紹 Electron 的最新消息。如大家所知,在兩次成功發射之後,我們在第 41 次任務中不幸遇到了異常。需要注意的是,截至這次發射,我們已經成功完成了 37 次軌道發射任務,將 171 顆衛星送入軌道。過去兩年,我們一直運作順暢,連續成功發射了 20 次。對於第 41 次任務,問題一出現,我們的團隊就在一周內迅速採取行動,因為我們一直在透過數千個管道的飛行數據和製造數據進行分析,以確定可能的根本原因。我將在接下來的幾張投影片中詳細介紹他們的調查過程。
Working in parallel with the FAA, the FAA has conducted its own review of the mission safety processes, plans and procedures, which concluded that they all worked as they should to keep the public safe and I am pleased to confirm that the FAA has since given us approval to resume launching from Launch Complex 1. With our investigation in its final stages and our launch license remaining active, we are fully anticipating to return to flight within the next few weeks. Following updates and changes to our testing and manufacturing process, we'll be returning to the pad with an even more reliable vehicle to meet our busy launch manifest for the remainder of '23 and into '24.
美國聯邦航空管理局與美國聯邦航空管理局同步對任務安全流程、計劃和程序進行了審查,並得出結論認為所有程序均正常運行,保障了公眾安全。我很高興地確認,美國聯邦航空管理局已批准我們從1號發射中心恢復發射。我們的調查已進入最後階段,我們的發射許可證仍然有效,我們完全有望在未來幾週內恢復飛行。隨著測試和製造流程的更新和調整,我們將使用更可靠的火箭重返發射台,以滿足2023年剩餘時間和2024年繁忙的發射任務。
Now, let me take you through what happened and what we've learned. So here's a slide on the anomaly time line. The anomaly that ended the mission happened incredibly quickly. From the first action in the chain of events when Electron cut off its data relay, the team only had 1.6 seconds of a nominally flight data to work with. This was always going to be a highly complex issue to figure out, but with deep diligence and analysis, here's what we've been able to determine.
現在,讓我來跟大家回顧一下當時發生的事情以及我們所了解的情況。這是一張異常時間軸的幻燈片。導致任務終止的異常事件發生得非常快。從事件鏈中的第一個動作——Electron 切斷數據中繼——開始,團隊只有 1.6 秒的正常飛行數據可供處理。這一直是一個非常複雜的問題,但透過深入的調查和分析,我們最終確定了以下幾點。
On a 41st mission launched September 19 from LC1, it completed all the usual launch milestones through lift-off, next queue, stage separations. And at 151 seconds, the second stage engine tried to ignite, which is confirmed by flight telemetry that showed the igniter pressures building and the locks and kerosene pump speed rising to pump propellents into the combustion chamber. The voltage levels from the battery packs that power the engine and the motor controllers are nominal at this point and normal at that point of ignition, but within milliseconds, in fact, 151.7 seconds, we get our first indication of the anomaly. The system's high-level voltage levels take a sudden dip and rise of about 100 volts within 30 milliseconds, indicating an energy escape from the system that then led to a full loss of power to the second stage lower avionics cutting off telemetry and communication with the second stage. And with that, it was all over.
在9月19日從LC1發射的第41次任務中,它完成了所有常規發射階段,包括升空、下一隊列和級間分離。在151秒時,第二級發動機嘗試點火,飛行遙測證實了這一點,遙測顯示點火器壓力正在增加,鎖和煤油泵轉速上升,將推進劑泵入燃燒室。此時,為引擎和馬達控制器供電的電池組的電壓水平正常,在點火時也正常,但在幾毫秒內,實際上是151.7秒內,我們第一次發現了異常。系統的高電平電壓在30毫秒內突然下降並上升約100伏,顯示系統能量洩漏,導致第二級下部航空電子設備完全斷電,切斷了與第二級的遙測和通訊。就這樣,一切都結束了。
So, move on to the issues. So you have to bear with me on this, there's a little bit to talk about here. But with good visual evidence with the onboarded cameras and over 12,000 channels of data and this high-level time line to draw from the investigation narrowed in on the issue. More than 200 sub- investigations were launched to rule out hypothetical causes of the anomaly. After more than 7 weeks of extensive analysis of the mission's manufacturing test and flight data, the findings of the Rocket Lab investigation team overwhelmingly indicate an unexpected electrical arc occurred within the power system.
那麼,讓我們繼續討論問題。請耐心聽我說完,這裡還有一些內容要討論。但是,憑藉機載攝影機提供的清晰視覺證據、超過12,000個數據通道以及調查得出的這條高水準時間線,問題已經縮小。為了排除導致異常的假設原因,我們啟動了200多項子調查。經過7週多對任務製造測試和飛行數據的廣泛分析,火箭實驗室調查小組的調查結果壓倒性地表明,電力系統內出現了意外的電弧。
Shown in the image on the top right, the team did some tricky optical triangulation and image processing of a small shadow on the engine bowel caused by the arc. From that, they are able to pinpoint and retriangulate the failures point's origin to an area where the 2 battery packs connect known as the fixed pack to supply the high-voltage power. So now we're all going to take a little lesson in Paschen law and Paschen curves. So Paschen law describes how in partial pressure environments, the likelihood of an arc to occur changes in high-voltage systems depending on the environmental composition.
如右上圖所示,團隊對引擎內部由電弧引起的小陰影進行了一些複雜的光學三角測量和影像處理。由此,他們能夠精確定位故障點,並重新進行三角測量,將其定位到兩個電池組連接的區域(即固定電池組),該區域用於提供高壓電源。現在,我們將學習一點帕申定律和帕申曲線。帕申定律描述了在分壓環境下,高壓系統中發生電弧的可能性如何隨環境成分的變化而變化。
An approximate guide can then be applied across different situations called the Paschen curve, which uses the relationship between voltage, pressure multiplied by distance to indicate what the range of danger is for an arc to form through various gases like helium, argon, nitrogen, et cetera. So the graph on the bottom right is what's known as a highly simplified Paschen curve. So basically, the easiest way to think about this is if you have a positive and a negative terminal of a battery at 500-volts down here on earth, you could place those 2 terminals of the battery about 0.03 millimeters or 1/3 of the thickness of a human hair beside each other and they would not create an arc or jump a spark between them.
然後,可以應用一種近似的指導原則來應對不同情況,稱為帕申曲線。此曲線利用電壓、壓力乘以距離之間的關係來指示電弧在氦氣、氬氣、氮氣等各種氣體中形成的危險範圍。右下角的圖表是高度簡化的帕申曲線。簡單來說,最簡單的理解方法是,假設在地球上,電池的正極和負極電壓為500伏,你可以將電池的這兩個端子並排放置,距離約為0.03毫米,也就是人類頭髮厚度的三分之一,它們之間不會產生電弧或火花。
Now, take the same 500-volt battery in terminals and put them in the worst part of the Paschen curve, which just happens to be just after stage separation and Stage 2 ignition of Electron. And the same 500-volt battery and terminals will now arc to each other when they are nearly 1 meter apart. So different gases, different pressures affect the distance. And there's also other things like AC ripple that can have a huge negative fix. But for now, let's just keep it simple. For Electron with its high-voltage 500-volt power supply, we have to ensure that every connection is essentially [thematically] sealed.
現在,把同樣的500伏電池端子放在帕申曲線最差的位置,這恰好發生在Electron級分離和第二級點火之後。同樣的500伏特電池和端子現在會在相距近1公尺時相互產生電弧。所以不同的氣體、不同的壓力都會影響距離。此外,還有其他因素,例如交流紋波,也會產生巨大的負面影響。但現在,我們先簡單說一下。對於採用500伏高壓電源的Electron,我們必須確保每個連接都基本密封。
A tiny pinprick or insulation failure, will result in arcs given that they can travel over large distances in the Paschen curve. All of this is in flux and very transient because as we assumed higher during the second stage burn and go into the hard vacuum of space, the arcing distance goes back the other way, and it becomes hard to arc again. It's really just at stage separation where things are the worst and we bottom out the Paschen curve. As you can imagine, this is extremely difficult to test for down on Earth. We actually, currently put the whole rear engine CVM in a vacuum chamber, pull it down and inject gases like argon to try and aggravate the phenomenon. But even the smallest installation compromise cannot always be detected, especially when you compile that with other factors like AC ripple and trace gases.
由於電弧在帕申曲線上可以傳播很遠,因此一個微小的針孔或絕緣故障都會導致電弧。所有這些都處於不斷變化且非常短暫的狀態,因為我們假設第二級燃燒時距離更高,進入太空的高真空環境,電弧距離會反向變化,再次形成電弧變得非常困難。實際上,只有在級間分離時,情況才會變得最糟糕,帕申曲線才會觸底。可以想像,在地球上測試這種現象極為困難。實際上,我們目前將整個後引擎控制電壓調節器 (CVM) 放入真空室中,將其拉低,並注入氬氣等氣體,試圖加劇這種現象。但即使是最小的安裝缺陷也並非總是能夠檢測到,尤其是在將其與交流紋波和微量氣體等其他因素綜合考慮的情況下。
So now that everybody understands Paschen curves. During the second stage ignition, we're at the worst part of the curve and we had a small concentration of helium in the vicinity of the [open] stage, which is normal, and a high-voltage AC ripple that lowers the spark threshold even lower and a tiny undetectable fault in the HV move insulation, all of which combined allowed for an arc to briefly occur. If any of these things were not present, then the failure would not have occurred. All 4 had to be there. And to be honest, with all the testing we do before flight, you would also have to be incredibly unlucky to have the insulation failure point also line up with an electrical path to be able to arc the chassis.
現在大家都明白了帕申曲線。在第二級點火期間,我們處於曲線最糟糕的部分,在[開路]級附近有少量氦氣濃度,這是正常的,並且有一個高壓交流紋波,使火花閾值更低,高壓動圈絕緣層中有一個微小的無法檢測的故障,所有這些因素結合在一起,導致了短暫的電弧發生。如果其中任何一個因素不存在,那麼故障就不會發生。所有這四個因素都必須存在。說實話,考慮到我們在飛行前進行的所有測試,你也必須非常倒楣才能讓絕緣故障點與電路重合,從而導致底盤產生電弧。
And look, I don't generally believe in luck as an engineer, but this -- but in this instance, I would say that so many things had to line up that most people would say that this probability of this occurring would be largely improbable. So with that, now that we kind of understand and we've explained the failure, what are we going to do to get back to flight. So the failure is obviously a highly complete set of conditions that are extremely difficult to predict. Our team's top priority through the investigation has been to find a way to make sure that this never happens again. And as a result, there's a couple of key corrective measures.
作為一名工程師,我通常不相信運氣,但在這種情況下,我想說,很多因素都必須同時發生,大多數人會認為這種情況發生的機率很小。既然我們已經大致了解了故障原因,也解釋了故障原因,那麼我們該怎麼做才能恢復飛行呢?顯然,故障是由一系列極其複雜的因素造成的,極難預測。我們團隊在調查過程中的首要任務是找到一種方法,確保這種情況不會再發生。因此,我們制定了一些關鍵的糾正措施。
The first is to increase the fidelity of the stage level vacuum testing. We now have a much more sensitive instruments implemented in the pre-flight tests both at the component level and the stage level that consents partial discharge all the way down to a (inaudible). This gives us much more confidence in the testing. However, I was not happy to stop there. And so we've implemented a rather brute-force solution. What we've done is seal up the battery frame that contains all the high-voltage connections and equipment and then pressurize it to about 0.5 of PSI.
首先是提高級級真空測試的保真度。我們現在在飛行前測試中,無論是在組件級還是級級,都配備了靈敏度更高的儀器,可以檢測低至(聽不清楚)的局部放電。這讓我們對測驗更有信心。然而,我並不滿足於此。因此,我們實施了一個相當強硬的解決方案。我們的做法是,將包含所有高壓連接和設備的電池框架密封,然後將其加壓至約0.5 PSI。
I'll draw your attention to the graph on the top right, surprise, surprise, it's another Paschen curve that shows that by pressurizing the high-voltage area, we shift the Paschen curve to the left out of the red zone and into the green zone, meaning, basically, we're back to what it's like on Earth where it's not really possible for big arc distances to occur. Now this has been a lot of work to implement by the team and as a fairly extreme solution. But really, I thought it was the only way we could put the Paschen law well back in its box. So the best way to solve a problem, in my opinion, is always to eliminate the problem and that's what we've done.
我請大家注意右上角的圖表,令人驚訝的是,這是另一個帕申曲線。它顯示,透過對高壓區加壓,我們將帕申曲線向左移動,從紅色區域移到綠色區域。這意味著,我們基本上回到了地球上的情況,在那裡,大弧長根本不可能出現。團隊為此付出了很多努力,而且這是一個相當極端的解決方案。但說實話,我認為這是唯一能讓帕申定律回歸正軌的方法。所以,在我看來,解決問題的最佳方法始終是消除問題,而這正是我們所做的。
Getting to the bottom of the issue and back to the pad for our customers has been the team's #1 priority. It's been incredible to witness their perseverance dedication over these past few weeks, not only on the anomaly investigation, but in the work that they've completed in parallel to make sure that we're good to go as soon as we get back to the pad. The launch window for a return to flight mission will open on November 28 and extend into December. This dedicated mission will be for iQPS, a Japanese-based Earth imaging company with the rocket for that mission going through prelaunch testing on the pad at Launch Complex right now.
徹底找出問題所在,讓客戶重返發射台一直是團隊的首要任務。過去幾週,他們堅持不懈地投入工作,不僅致力於異常情況調查,還致力於同步完成的工作,以確保我們一回到發射台就能立即投入使用,這令人難以置信。重返飛行任務的發射窗口將於11月28日開啟,並持續至12月。這項專項任務將由iQPS執行,這是一家總部位於日本的地球成像公司,用於該任務的火箭目前正在發射中心的發射台上進行發射前測試。
So move on to Electron launch manifest. So in 2024, we have a really big year ahead of us. Even with our pause in operations, Electron remains the world's most frequently launched small orbital rocket. Dedicated missions for small satellites continue to experience strong demand, which we've seen in multiple bulk buys by returning customers and constellation operators. In fact, we've booked out Electron launches next year, completely blocked. We see the market for the Electron product being very strong and this manifests validates that. Frequent launch opportunities, flexibility over schedule and control over orbiter deployment are what our customers are looking for and that's what Electron has been providing and will continue to provide in the New Year.
接下來是 Electron 火箭的發射清單。 2024 年,我們將迎來意義非凡的一年。即使營運暫停,Electron 火箭仍然是全球發射頻率最高的小型軌道火箭。小型衛星的專用任務需求仍然強勁,我們已經看到回頭客和星座運營商的多次大量採購。事實上,我們已經預訂了明年 Electron 火箭的發射,全部預訂一空。我們認為 Electron 產品的市場前景非常強勁,這份清單也印證了這一點。頻繁的發射機會、靈活的計劃安排以及對軌道器部署的控制力正是我們的客戶所期待的,而這正是 Electron 一直以來提供的,並將在新的一年繼續提供的。
And all that, all we have to do really in -- with our 2024 manifest is execute as and with -- within living in the space industry. By ramping Electron production and keeping on top of demand with recent acquisitions as well as continuous improvement in automation across our manufacturing processes, we look to continue improving on our already impressive performance in manufacturing. We also note that the scaling is coming with improved gross margins. In Q3 2023, we achieved a 27% GAAP launch gross margin, which should look to enable to progress our profitability targets for Electron as we drive scale and efficiency into the business.
所有這些,我們真正要做的就是──按照我們2024年的計畫──在航太產業中實踐。透過提高Electron的產量,並透過最近的收購滿足市場需求,以及持續改善製造流程的自動化程度,我們希望繼續提升我們本已令人印象深刻的製造業績。我們也注意到,規模擴張也帶來了毛利率的提升。在2023年第三季度,我們實現了27%的GAAP毛利率,隨著我們進一步擴大業務規模和提高效率,這有望幫助我們推進Electron的獲利目標。
I now want to take you through and highlight some of the accomplishments in -- so far in Q4. So Neutron structures. We'll start with a Neutron update. Earlier this quarter, we reached a major milestone and had a frosty second stage tank up on the stand structural and cryogenic testing, which is really a key marker for our Neutron program development and invent program. The team's job was to push the tank to its absolute limits by loading it up with cryogenic fluids and test to destruction. Something like 96,000 liters of liquid nitrogen was used for this test campaign and an exploded tank in this instance is very much a good thing and what we wanted to achieve.
現在,我想向大家介紹並重點介紹第四季迄今為止所取得的一些成果。首先是中子結構。我們先從中子的最新進展開始。本季度早些時候,我們取得了一個重要的里程碑,將一個低溫二級燃料箱放置在支架上進行結構和低溫測試,這對我們的中子專案開發和發明專案來說是一個關鍵的里程碑。團隊的任務是透過向燃料箱中註入低溫液體並進行破壞性測試,將燃料箱推向極限。這次測試使用了大約96,000公升液態氮,這次燃料箱爆炸是件好事,也是我們想要達到的目標。
The team to the tank passed MEOP or Maximum Expected Operation Pressure at more than 7x atmospheric pressure. What they've learned in the campaign has been applied to the next stage to tank and currently under production, really to bake in structural reliability early as we get closer to our date with the launch pad. Speaking of baking, this is quite literally what our carbon composites team has been up to with our next full scale Neutron structures and components. The images on this slide here show you the scale of some of the tank devices being produced, more than 7 feet in diameter for those secular propellent management devices and the Stage 2 dome being eliminated in the bottom section, whilst the Neutron fixed bearing sections are coming together nicely. And of course, we have another second stage Neutron tank being built for our next test tank -- to go on our next test tank in the first half of '24.
燃料箱團隊在超過7倍大氣壓的壓力下通過了MEOP(最大預期工作壓力)測試。他們在測試中累積的經驗已應用於目前正在生產的下一級燃料箱,旨在隨著發射台日期的臨近,儘早實現結構可靠性的「烘烤」。說到“烘烤”,這正是我們碳複合材料團隊在下一代全尺寸中子火箭結構和部件上所做的工作。幻燈片中的圖片展示了一些正在生產的燃料箱裝置的規模,這些推進劑管理裝置的直徑超過7英尺,底部取消了第二級圓頂,而中子火箭的固定軸承部分則組裝得非常完美。當然,我們也正在為下一個測試燃料箱建造另一個第二級中子火箭燃料箱——該燃料箱將於2024年上半年投入使用。
And then over to Neutron Archimedes engine. Another test we're celebrating was a critical combustion test that the team achieved with Neutron's Archimedes engine. There's plenty of benefits to pursuing methane and LOX propellants, but it does come with some of its own challenges. The critical piece really and one of the challenges was in using methane and liquid oxygen for Archimedes is getting the pre-burner dialed in. Where generally you want a fuel mix ratio in a chamber of something like 3:1 oxygen fuel, we're running an oxygen-rich pre-burner cycle on Archimedes that forces us to flow all of our oxygen through the combustion device. Therefore, our ideal mix is something between [100:1], which is a challenging thing to achieve without all the excess oxygen extinguished and combustion.
接下來是中子阿基米德引擎。值得慶賀的另一項測試是團隊利用中子阿基米德引擎完成的關鍵燃燒測試。使用甲烷和液態氧推進劑有許多好處,但也存在一些挑戰。真正關鍵的一點,也是挑戰之一,是阿基米德引擎使用甲烷和液態氧推進劑時,是如何調節預燃室。通常情況下,預燃室的燃料混合比應該在3:1左右,而我們在阿基米德引擎上運行的是富氧預燃室循環,迫使所有氧氣都流過燃燒裝置。因此,我們的理想混合比應該在[100:1]之間,在不熄滅所有過量氧氣和燃燒的情況下實現這一目標是一項挑戰。
Archimedes also has an extremely benign operating point, making it great for reliability and reusability, but it does mean that the pressures are low and ironically harder for the pre-burner. But I'm happy to say that we met all the operating points that we wanted to on those tests. That was a great accomplishment by the team. At the same time, the Archimedes team have been producing and testing full-scale hardware like valves, chambers, injectors, controllers and assemblies in preparation for development and propulsion tests, making for a really impressive site and all the pieces come together, like you see in the photo on the side as well.
阿基米德引擎的工作點也極為溫和,這使其可靠性和可重複使用性極佳,但這也意味著壓力較低,諷刺的是,預燃室的運作更困難。但我很高興地說,我們在這些測試中達到了所有預期的工作點。這對團隊來說是一項巨大的成就。與此同時,阿基米德團隊一直在生產和測試全尺寸硬件,例如閥門、燃燒室、噴射器、控制器和組件,為開發和推進測試做準備。這造就了一個令人印象深刻的現場,所有部件都組裝在一起,就像您在側面照片中看到的那樣。
Over to Neutron infrastructure. So supporting infrastructure for Neutron has also scaled quickly over the past few months. Groundworks are being completed in Virginia where our Neutron pad will be. Test facilities and support services will be based there as well and we're ready for construction to begin at a launch site located close to our key government customers, which will enjoy the benefits of a less congested launch site than obviously the Cape. In Q4, we opened our new engine development center in Long Beach that will support the development and production of the Archimedes engine. And once the engines are completed at EDC, they'll go to testing at our NASA Stennis Space Center where the Neutron team has been busy with site improvements to accept the engine for hot fires.
說到中子火箭的基礎設施。在過去的幾個月裡,中子火箭的配套基礎設施也迅速擴張。維吉尼亞州的地基工程即將完工,我們的中子火箭發射台也將設在那裡。測試設施和支援服務也將在那裡設立,我們已準備好在靠近我們主要政府客戶的發射場開始建設,該發射場顯然比科德角發射場更不擁擠。第四季度,我們在長灘啟用了新的引擎開發中心,該中心將支援阿基米德引擎的研發和生產。發動機在EDC完工後,將前往美國宇航局斯坦尼斯航天中心進行測試。中子火箭團隊一直在那裡忙於場地改進,以便引擎能夠進行熱點火測試。
And then finally, Neutron time line. All of these achievements across Q3 and Q4 that I've mentioned and several others are shown here have been great to tick off along the Neutron time line. We have completed second stage tank testing, printed key Archimedes engine parts and components had success with our combustion testing devices, completed qualification testing of their composite overhead pressure vessel, run through separation lock deployment testing and stage pusher system testing, completed our actuator motor controller testing, finished test on our power management module, confirmed Neutron engine and stage controller functions as it should, completed avionics controller testing, successfully tested the vehicle thermal protection system, stood up the test rig for the incoming Neutron Canard and Canard system testing.
最後,是中子時間軸。我提到的第三季和第四季的所有這些成就,以及這裡列出的其他幾個成就,都是中子時間線上值得紀念的。我們已經完成了第二級燃料箱測試,列印了阿基米德發動機的關鍵零組件,並成功通過了我們的燃燒測試設備,完成了複合材料頂置式壓力容器的鑑定測試,進行了分離鎖部署測試和級推系統測試,完成了執行器電機控制器測試,完成了電源管理模組的測試,確認了中子發動機驅動器功能正常,完成了執行器電機控制器測試,完成了電源管理模組的測試,確認了中子發動機系統測試
The team is obviously working hard to keep our ambitious schedule for the rest of the year and into '24 with the same -- with some of the next year milestones to account for, including first stage qualification tank tests completed, Archimedes engine testing campaign and the first simulated flight orbit with our hardware connected to our flight computers. Now, we will continue to provide updates on how a Neutron is tracking outside our quarterly reviews.
團隊顯然正在努力保持我們雄心勃勃的計劃,在今年剩餘時間以及2024年保持同樣的進度——明年還有一些里程碑需要完成,包括完成第一階段資格油箱測試、阿基米德發動機測試活動,以及將我們的硬體連接到飛行計算機後首次模擬飛行軌道。現在,我們將繼續在季度回顧之外更新中子號的進展。
Beyond Electron and Neutron, our hypersonic test vehicle, HASTE has seen significant amounts of interest from new and returning government customers, looking to further develop the nation's hypersonic testing capability. We've actually booked 7 launch contracts in the 6 months since our HASTE program was introduced, including our latest mission announced today, a HASTE launch from Virginia from the U.S. Department of Defense Innovation Unit. This mission will demonstrate HASTE direct inject capability by deploying its payload during ascent, while still within the Earth's atmosphere, along sought after capability for the nation's strategic defense and civil needs at a fraction of the cost of the current full-scale tests.
除了電子和中子之外,我們的高超音速測試飛行器HASTE也吸引了大量新舊政府客戶的關注,他們希望進一步提升國家的高超音速測試能力。自HASTE計畫啟動以來的六個月內,我們已經簽訂了7份發射合同,其中包括今天宣布的最新任務——由美國國防部創新部門從維吉尼亞州發射HASTE。此次任務將透過在上升過程中部署有效載荷,驗證HASTE的直接注入能力,使其仍在地球大氣層內飛行,並滿足國家戰略國防和民用需求,而成本僅為當前全面測試的一小部分。
On to Space Systems now, and we have a new spacecraft order on the books for a confidential constellation customer that builds on a strong demand for our satellite products. This particular spacecraft will include a full suite of our own satellite components and subsystems, including star trackers, reaction wheels, solar panels, S-band radios, flight software and so on and so forth. This contract, in particular, speaks to the popularity and configurability of our spacecraft bus, but the confidence also in our satellite components in the market and our ability to grow and end-to-end mission -- grow as an end-to-end mission partner for the space industry.
現在談談太空系統公司,我們為一位保密的星座客戶簽訂了一份新的太空船訂單,該訂單基於我們衛星產品的強勁需求。這艘特殊的太空船將包含我們自己的全套衛星組件和子系統,包括星體追蹤器、反作用輪、太陽能電池板、S波段無線電、飛行軟體等等。這份合約尤其體現了我們太空船平台的受歡迎程度和可配置性,也體現了市場對我們衛星組件的信心,以及我們發展壯大的能力——成為航太工業端到端任務合作夥伴。
Now importantly, we'll also be managing the mission's operations and a further demonstration of our end-to-end business model of building and operating satellites that we build for our customers. Continuous Space Systems to our largest space system contract now, the $143 million contract we have with MDA Globalstar. We're getting close to the delivery of our first of 17 spacecraft for the program by the end of Q1 next year. Having cleared significant milestones in the contract in the past few months, the spacecraft critical design review and delivery of a structural thermal model for the customer. We expect to recognize revenue from those invoice payments to MDA in the fourth quarter of 2023. This sets the stage for a more meaningful revenue contribution from this contract as we enter 2024.
現在重要的是,我們還將管理該任務的運營,並進一步展示我們為客戶建造和運營衛星的端到端商業模式。連續太空系統公司目前最大的太空系統合約是與MDA Globalstar公司簽訂的價值1.43億美元的合約。我們即將在明年第一季末交付該專案17艘太空船中的第一艘。在過去幾個月中,我們已經完成了合約中的重要里程碑,包括太空船關鍵設計審查和為客戶交付結構熱模型。我們預計將在2023年第四季確認這些支付給MDA的發票收入。這為我們在2024年進入新階段時從該合約中獲得更有意義的收入貢獻奠定了基礎。
We continue to pursue increasingly complex and financially needle-moving space system opportunities and are encouraged by progress being made in this part of our business. And we believe that these pursuits position us to continue scaling as an end-to-end space solutions leader. Lastly, on space systems updates. We're proud to have directly supported the success of NASA's groundbreaking Psyche mission launched in October with our solar panels powering the spacecraft on its 6-year journey into deep space. These solar panels we provided to the mission hold the record for being the largest solar panels ever installed on an NASA JPL satellite, which we're immensely proud of.
我們持續尋求日益複雜且在財務上具有重大推動作用的空間系統機遇,並對該業務領域的進展感到鼓舞。我們相信,這些追求將使我們繼續發展成為端到端空間解決方案的領導者。最後,關於空間系統更新。我們很榮幸能夠直接支持美國宇航局(NASA)於10月發射的具有開創性的“靈神星”(Psyche)任務,我們的太陽能電池板為該航天器在為期6年的深空之旅中提供動力。我們為此任務提供的這些太陽能電池板保持著NASA噴射推進實驗室(JPL)衛星上安裝的最大太陽能板的記錄,我們對此感到無比自豪。
And then finally, into post-quarter achievements. I'm thrilled to welcome retired U.S. Space Force Lieutenant General Nina Armagno to Rocket Lab's Board of Directors. Lieutenant General Armagno served more than 35 years in leadership positions across the U.S. [base force] and U.S. Space Force, including -- U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force, including being the first Lieutenant General Officer appointed to and Director of Staff for the Space Force where she established America's first new military branch in 72 years. She's had an accomplished and distinguished career in the military and will be an invaluable asset to the Board.
最後,談談季度後的成就。我非常高興地歡迎退休的美國太空部隊中將妮娜·阿瑪格諾加入火箭實驗室董事會。阿瑪格諾中將在美軍(基地部隊)和美國太空部隊(包括美國空軍和美國太空部隊)擔任領導職務超過35年,其中包括成為美國太空部隊首位被任命為中將的軍官和參謀長,並在那裡建立了美國72年來第一個新的軍事部門。她在軍隊中有著輝煌的成就和傑出的職業生涯,將成為董事會的寶貴資產。
And now over to Adam for the third quarter financial highlights.
現在請亞當介紹第三季的財務亮點。
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Thanks, Pete. Third quarter 2023 revenue was $67.7 million, which is near the high end of our prior revised guidance of $66 million to $68 million. Third quarter 2023 revenue reflects sequential growth of 9%, the result of 3 launches and continued growth in our Space Systems business.
謝謝,Pete。 2023年第三季的營收為6,770萬美元,接近我們先前修訂後的6,600萬至6,800萬美元的預期上限。 2023年第三季的營收季增9%,這得益於三次發射以及我們太空系統業務的持續成長。
Our Launch Services segment delivered revenue of $21.3 million in the quarter from 3 launches and is in line with post-anomaly revised guidance of $22 million with the slight [under-ridge] due to timing of revenue under our launch study contracting. The resulting average revenue per launch came in at $7.1 million, below our target average selling price of $7.5 million for 2023 and the result of less favorable mix in the quarter. Our current backlog continues to reflect our target average revenue per launch with variability tied to LSA volume commitments, launch location and unique mission assurance requirements.
我們的發射服務部門本季透過三次發射實現了2,130萬美元的收入,與異常值調整後的2,200萬美元的預期收入相符,但由於我們根據發射研究合約確定收入的時間,收入略有下降。因此,單次發射的平均收入為710萬美元,低於我們2023年750萬美元的目標平均售價,這也是本季產品組合不佳的結果。我們目前的積壓訂單繼續反映我們單次發射的平均收入目標,但會因輕型運動航天器(LSA)數量承諾、發射地點和特定任務保障要求而有所波動。
Our Space Systems segment delivered $46.3 million in the quarter, which was up 17% sequentially and modestly above the high end of our prior revised guidance range of $44 million to $46 million, driven by a step-up in our MDA contract revenue, offset somewhat by a reduction in our components business, which is poised to rebound in the fourth quarter guide that we'll discuss later.
我們的太空系統部門本季度實現了 4,630 萬美元的營收,比上一季度增長 17%,略高於我們之前修訂後的 4,630 萬美元的營收,比上一季度增長 17%,略高於我們之前修訂後的 4,630 萬美元的營收,比上一季度增長 17%,略高於我們先前修訂後的 4,630 萬美元的營收,比上一季度增長 17%,略高於我們先前修訂後的 4,630 萬美元至 4,600 萬美元指導範圍的高端,這得益於 MDA 合約收入的增長,但被零部件業務的減少所抵消,零部件業務預計將在第四季度指導中討論,我們將在第四季度指導
Now, turning to gross margin. GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 22.1%, above the high end of our prior revised guidance range of 18% to 20%. Non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 29.5%, which was also above our prior revised guidance range of 26% to 28%. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin improvements relative to our revised Q3, 2023 guidance reflect continued efficiencies in both our launch and satellite manufacturing businesses. We ended Q3 with production-related head count of 816, up 49 from the prior quarter.
現在談談毛利率。第三季GAAP毛利率為22.1%,高於我們先前修訂後的18%至20%的指引區間上限。第三季非GAAP毛利率為29.5%,也高於我們先前修訂後的26%至28%的指引區間。相對於我們修訂後的2023年第三季指引,GAAP和非GAAP毛利率的改善反映了我們發射和衛星製造業務的持續效率提升。截至第三季度,我們生產相關員工總數為816人,比上一季增加了49人。
We also note that non-GAAP gross margins reflect a 430 basis point improvement versus Q2, 2023 when adjusting for Q2's one-time $4.1 million release of the loss reserve related to a legacy launch contract. We're encouraged by the trend in gross margin improvement and expect this trend to continue into 2024, as we return to launch and resume growth Electron's launch cadence against our strong and growing launch backlog.
我們還注意到,非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 毛利率較 2023 年第二季度提升了 430 個基點,這主要得益於第二季度一次性提取的 410 萬美元與遺留發射合約相關的損失準備金。我們對毛利率的改善趨勢感到鼓舞,並預計這一趨勢將持續到 2024 年,屆時我們將恢復發射,並恢復 Electron 的發射節奏,以應對我們強勁且不斷增長的發射訂單。
Turning to backlog. We ended Q3, 2023 with $582.4 million of total backlog with launch backlog of $250.7 million and Space Systems backlog of $331.7 million. Relative to Q2, 2023, total backlog was up 9% sequentially or $48.1 million, thanks to healthy bookings in our launch business, partially offset by declines in Space Systems. For launch specifically, backlog was up 55% sequentially or $88.8 million as Electron continues to benefit from return orders of both commercial and HASTE customers.
談到積壓訂單。截至2023年第三季度,我們的積壓訂單總額為5.824億美元,其中發射積壓訂單為2.507億美元,太空系統積壓訂單為3.317億美元。與2023年第二季相比,總積壓訂單季增9%,即4,810萬美元,這得益於我們發射業務的良好訂單表現,但部分抵消了太空系統業務的下滑。具體到發射業務,積壓訂單環比增長55%,即8880萬美元,這得益於Electron公司繼續受益於商業和HASTE客戶的回單。
For Space Systems, backlog was down 11% sequentially or $40.7 million as we continue to work through our larger satellite manufacturing contracts and the timing of additions to Space Systems backlog are lumpy to the increasingly complexity and magnitude of these contract opportunities. We expect approximately 57% of current backlog to be recognized as revenues within 12 months and expect continued meaningful growth in our backlog as we exit 2023 and progress through 2024, thanks to continued demand for our Electron platform as well as anticipated orders for significant satellite manufacturing opportunities we've aggressively been considering over the last year or so.
就太空系統而言,積壓訂單環比下降11%,即4070萬美元,原因是我們仍在繼續處理更大的衛星製造合同,而且由於這些合同機會日益複雜且規模龐大,空間系統積壓訂單的增加時機並不連貫。我們預計,目前積壓訂單中約有57%將在12個月內確認為收入,並且預計在2023年結束並邁向2024年之際,我們的積壓訂單將繼續保持顯著增長,這得益於市場對我們Electron平台的持續需求,以及我們在過去一年左右積極考慮的重要衛星製造機會的預期訂單。
Turning to operating expenses. GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter of 2023 were $53.8 million, modestly above the high end of our original and unrevised guidance range of $51 million to $53 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $39.8 million, which is at the high end of our original and unrevised guidance range of $38 million to $40 million. The decreases in both GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses versus the second quarter of 2023 were primarily driven by contra R&D credits related to Neutron upper stage development from our U.S. government partners, partially offset by higher Neutron development spending, increases in head count and higher depreciation and amortization expenses.
談到營運費用。 2023年第三季度,美國通用會計準則(GAAP)營運費用為5,380萬美元,略高於我們最初未修訂的5,100萬美元至5,300萬美元指引範圍的上限。第三季非美國通用會計準則(Non-GAAP)營運費用為3,980萬美元,處於我們最初未修訂的3,800萬美元至4,000萬美元指引範圍的上限。與2023年第二季相比,GAAP和非GAAP營運費用均有所下降,主要原因是我們美國政府合作夥伴提供的與中子火箭上層開發相關的研發抵免,但中子火箭開發支出的增加、員工人數的增加以及折舊和攤銷費用的增加部分抵消了這一下降。
In SG&A, GAAP expenses decreased $1.5 million quarter-on-quarter due to a change in contingent consideration related to our PSC acquisition due to a lower average stock price in the quarter. Non-GAAP SG&A expenses increased by $700,000, primarily due to increases in head count, along with the step-up in depreciation and amortization, primarily related to additions to corporate IT and security infrastructure to further enable efficient scaling of the business. Q3 ending SG&A head count was 236, representing an increase of 8 from the prior quarter.
在銷售、一般及行政管理 (SG&A) 方面,GAAP 費用環比減少 150 萬美元,因為本季平均股價下跌導致我們收購 PSC 相關的或有對價發生變化。非 GAAP 銷售、一般及行政管理 (SG&A) 費用增加 70 萬美元,主要原因是員工人數增加以及折舊和攤銷費用增加,這主要與公司 IT 和安全基礎設施的擴建有關,旨在進一步實現業務高效擴展。第三季末,銷售、一般及行政管理 (SG&A) 員工人數為 236 人,較上一季增加 8 人。
In R&D specifically, GAAP expenses were down $4.4 million quarter-on-quarter to increased contra R&D credits related to the previously referenced Neutron upper stage development, partially offset by a step-up in Neutron development spending and non-GAAP expenses were down $4.3 million quarter-on-quarter, driven similarly to GAAP expenses by Neutron related contra R&D credit and development spend. Q3 ending R&D head count was 520, representing an increase of 2 from the prior quarter.
具體而言,研發方面,GAAP 支出較上季下降 440 萬美元,原因是與前述中子火箭上層開發相關的研發抵銷額增加,但部分被中子火箭開發支出的增加所抵銷。非 GAAP 支出較上季下降 430 萬美元,與 GAAP 支出類似,主要受中子火箭相關研發抵銷額和開發支出的影響。第三季末,研發人員總數為 520 人,較上一季增加 2 人。
In summary, total third quarter head count was 1,572, up 59 heads from the prior quarter. Purchase of property, equipment and capitalized software licenses was $21 million in the third quarter of 2023, an increase from $10.6 million in the second quarter of 2023. The sequential increase was due to our continued investment in Neutron research, testing and production infrastructure projects, along with the expansion of our satellite production and space solar solutions capacity.
綜上所述,第三季員工總數為1,572人,較上一季增加59人。 2023年第三季度,公司購置物業、設備及資本化軟體許可證的費用為2,100萬美元,較2023年第二季的1,060萬美元增加。環比成長的原因是我們對中子研究、測試和生產基礎設施項目的持續投資,以及衛星生產和太空太陽能解決方案產能的擴張。
Cash consumed from operations was $25.2 million in the third quarter of 2023 compared to $6.1 million in the second quarter of 2023. The sequential increase of $19.1 million was driven primarily by timing of receipts and payments associated with our satellite production programs, which for some of our larger programs have significant periods between milestone achievement, invoicing and ultimately, collections, which at the end of the day, are purely timing related. More specifically, Q2 was a quarter that benefited from a working capital dynamic, where we collected on material milestone invoices that were invoiced in the prior quarter where payment terms are more lengthy than our target 30 to 45 days.
2023年第三季營運現金消耗為2,520萬美元,而2023年第二季為610萬美元。環比增加1910萬美元,主要由於與衛星生產項目相關的收付款時間表。對於我們的一些大型專案而言,從里程碑達成到開立發票,再到最終收款,這之間存在較長的時間間隔,而最終收款完全取決於時間安排。更具體地說,第二季度受益於營運資金的動態調整,我們收回了上一季開立的重要里程碑發票,這些發票的付款期限比我們設定的30至45天的目標期限更長。
Cash consumed by asset acquisition and business combinations was $800,000 in the third quarter of 2023, a decrease from $16.1 million in the second quarter of 2023. The sequential decrease of $15.3 million was driven by the majority of our Virgin Orbit select asset acquisitions being realized in the second quarter. Overall, non-GAAP free cash flow, defined as GAAP operating cash flow reduced by purchase of property, equipment and capitalized software in the third quarter of 2023 was a use of $47 million compared to $16.7 million in the second quarter of 2023 or a more apples-to-apples comparison of $32.8 million when including the impact of our acquisition of select Virgin Orbit assets, most of which were classified as PP&E.
2023年第三季度,資產收購和業務合併所消耗的現金為80萬美元,較2023年第二季的1,610萬美元下降。季減1530萬美元的原因是,我們大部分維珍軌道精選資產收購都在第二季完成。整體而言,2023年第三季非公認會計準則自由現金流量(定義為公認會計準則營運現金流量減去購置
The material step-up in negative free cash flow was, as noted in my earlier GAAP operating cash flow commentary was a result of lumpy timing of payments and receipts associated with our Space Systems manufacturing operations and we expect the reversal of this negative capital cycle in early 2024. The ending balance of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities was $374 million at the end of the third quarter of 2023.
正如我之前在 GAAP 經營現金流評論中指出的那樣,負自由現金流的大幅增加是由於我們太空系統製造業務的付款和收款時間不規律造成的,我們預計這種負資本週期將在 2024 年初逆轉。截至 2023 年第三季末,現金、現金等價物、限制性現金及有價證券的期末餘額為 3.74 億美元。
Reflecting in the past 4 quarters, we have made meaningful progress towards our long-term financial model. We have delivered consistent revenue growth and when adjusting for the one-time release of a loss reserve in Q2, gross margin expansion and shrinking adjusted EBITDA losses each quarter. With our strong launch manifest and greater contribution from Space Systems contract execution in 2024, we expect this trend to continue. Overall, we expect gross margin trends will continue to improve over time, thanks to the same factors that have helped drive improvement we've seen this year. In terms of when we can get to adjusted EBITDA breakeven, while Neutron investment, especially R&D spend continues to be the pacing item to achieving this critical milestone. Although, we view that Rocket Lab has demonstrated that its existing businesses are on a trajectory to offset the weight of this Neutron investment spend.
回顧過去四個季度,我們在長期財務模型方面取得了長足的進步。我們的營收持續成長,扣除第二季一次提領的損失準備金後,毛利率持續上升,調整後EBITDA虧損也逐季縮減。憑藉強勁的發射清單以及2024年Space Systems合約執行帶來的更大貢獻,我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。總體而言,我們預計毛利率趨勢將隨著時間的推移而持續改善,這要歸功於與今年推動業績改善的相同因素。至於何時實現調整後EBITDA損益平衡,Neutron的投資,尤其是研發支出,仍是實現這一關鍵里程碑的關鍵因素。不過,我們認為Rocket Lab已證明其現有業務的成長軌跡能夠抵消Neutron投資支出帶來的影響。
With that, let's turn to our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023. We expect revenue in the fourth quarter to range between $65 million and $69 million, which reflects $48.5 million to $52.5 million of contribution from Space Systems and $16.5 million from launch services, which assumes 2 launches. As referenced earlier, based on our manifested launch backlog, we now expect 11 launches in 2023 and 22 launches in 2024 with an expectation that our average selling price that continues to trend towards our current target of $7.5 million through the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.
好了,接下來我們來看看2023年第四季的業績指引。我們預計第四季營收將在6,500萬美元至6,900萬美元之間,其中太空系統貢獻4,850萬美元至5,250萬美元,發射服務貢獻1,650萬美元(假設發射2次)。如前所述,根據我們已確認的發射積壓訂單,我們目前預計2023年將進行11次發射,2024年將進行22次發射。預計在2023年剩餘時間以及2024年,我們的平均售價將繼續趨向目前750萬美元的目標。
We expect fourth quarter GAAP gross margin to range between 24% to 26% and non-GAAP gross margin to range between 30% to 32%. These forecasted GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin improvements reflect a favorable mix between Launch and Space Systems, along with a favorable mix within Space Systems. We expect fourth quarter GAAP operating expenses to range between $61 million and $63 million and non-GAAP operating expenses to range between $50 million and $52 million.
我們預期第四季GAAP毛利率在24%至26%之間,非GAAP毛利率在30%至32%之間。這些預測的GAAP和非GAAP毛利率成長反映了發射系統和航太系統之間以及航太系統內部的良好組合。我們預計第四季GAAP營運費用在6,100萬美元至6,300萬美元之間,非GAAP營運費用在5,000萬美元至5,200萬美元之間。
The quarter-on-quarter increases are driven primarily by having recognized a substantial amount of contra R&D credit related to our Neutron upper stage development agreement with U.S. Space Force in the prior quarter, along with increases in staff costs, prototyping and material spend as we continue ramping our Neutron development program. We expect fourth quarter GAAP and non-GAAP net interest expense to be $2 million. We expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA loss to range between $23 million and $27 million and basic shares outstanding to be approximately 487 million shares.
環比成長主要源自於上一季與美國太空部隊簽訂的中子火箭上上層開發協議相關的大量研發抵銷額度,以及隨著我們繼續推進中子火箭開發項目,員工成本、原型設計和材料支出也隨之增加。我們預計第四季GAAP和非GAAP淨利息支出為200萬美元。我們預計第四季調整後EBITDA虧損將在2,300萬美元至2,700萬美元之間,基本流通股數約為4.87億股。
Additionally, the unique situation created by the anomaly and related pent-up impacts to the Launch Manifest as we prepare to return to flight and head into 2024, combined with better visibility on Space Systems program execution and revenue recognition as we prepare to ship the first spacecraft against the MDA Globalstar program in the middle of the first half of 2024, provides us with a visibility and confidence to estimate Q1, 2024 revenue to range between $95 million and $105 million, putting inside our first $100 million revenue quarter. This forecast will be the result of 4 to 5 launches in the quarter, yielding between $30 million and $37 million of launch revenue and $65 million to $68 million of contribution from Space Systems. This would represent a significant milestone for the company and we believe a strong endorsement of the end-to-end space solutions business model we're delivering on.
此外,在我們準備恢復飛行並邁入 2024 年之際,這一異常情況及其對發射清單產生的壓抑影響造成了特殊情況,再加上我們準備在 2024 年上半年中期向 MDA Globalstar 計劃發射首艘航天器,因此對空間系統計劃的執行情況和收入確認有了更好的了解,這為我們提供了明確的 200 萬美元1.05 億美元之間,這是我們第一個實現 1 億美元收入的季度。這項預測是基於本季 4 到 5 次發射的結果,發射收入在 3,000 萬至 3,700 萬美元之間,而太空系統貢獻的收入則在 6,500 萬至 6,800 萬美元之間。這將是公司的一個重要里程碑,我們相信這是對我們正在推行的端到端空間解決方案業務模式的有力認可。
And with that, we'll hand the call over to the operator for questions.
然後,我們會將電話轉給接線員以解答疑問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank.
(操作員指示)您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。
Xin Yu - Research Analyst
Xin Yu - Research Analyst
I appreciate the level of detail you provided on the investigation. First question on the manifest for next year. Can you give us a sense of your confidence level on the 22? Is that sort of your base case? Or in other words, the range is sort of 20 to 24 and the midpoint would be 22? Or do you need kind of everything to go right to hit that 22 target?
我很欣賞您在調查中提供的詳細資料。第一個問題是關於明年的清單。您能否告訴我們您對22艘船的信心程度?這是您的基本情況嗎?或者換句話說,範圍是20到24艘船,中間點是22艘?還是說您需要所有方面都順利才能達到22艘的目標?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Edison, as with any launch contract, right, we are always somewhat susceptible to factors that we can't control, like customer readiness is always a big one. The customers need to turn up with their satellites on time, weather and of course, as I mentioned in my commentary, we have to execute from a manufacturing standpoint. But I think the key takeaway there is we have completely sold out manifest for next year at a number that is really solid. So I would say that we have to execute and there's always some uncertainty for things that we don't control, but that's certainly what we're targeting.
愛迪生,就像任何發射合約一樣,我們總是會受到一些我們無法控制的因素的影響,例如客戶的準備總是一個很大的因素。客戶需要準時交付衛星,還要考慮天氣因素,當然,正如我在評論中提到的,我們必須從製造的角度來執行。但我認為關鍵在於,我們已經完全售罄了明年的訂單,而且數量非常可觀。所以,我想說,我們必須執行,而且總是會有一些我們無法控制的不確定性,但這無疑是我們的目標。
Xin Yu - Research Analyst
Xin Yu - Research Analyst
And then just a follow-up to that. Can you give us a sense or maybe a bridge on the margin in launch? You had a very good quarter actually in 3Q. How does that margin trajectory look if you can get to that 22 launch cadence?
然後還有個後續問題。您能否跟我們講一下發布會上利潤率的情況?實際上,你們第三季的業績非常好。如果你們能達到22款產品的發表節奏,利潤率的走勢會如何?
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
I'll take it past that, Pete. So Edison, yes, I mean, we've long stated that when we get to our target model for non-GAAP gross margins of around 50%, that requires launching 24 times a year. So we're going to make significant progress towards that as we launch as we kind of strive to hit that 22 number next year. So -- and if you look at any given quarter, if we have, again, 6 launches in the quarter, that should be at or very close to our long-term 50% non-GAAP gross margin target.
皮特,我再說一次。愛迪生,是的,我的意思是,我們早就說過,要達到非公認會計準則下50%左右毛利率的目標,就需要每年發布24款產品。因此,我們將在產品發布過程中朝著這個目標取得重大進展,力爭明年達到22款產品的目標。所以,如果你看任何一個季度,如果我們當季有6款產品發布,那就應該達到或非常接近我們長期50%的非公認會計準則下毛利率的目標。
Xin Yu - Research Analyst
Xin Yu - Research Analyst
And if I can just sneak one more in on Neutron. [Quite a lot of] milestones, do we feel comfortable with the time line? Should we interpret that as you guys feeling comfortable with the time line on next year?
我能不能再偷偷提一下關於 Neutron 的事情。 [相當多的] 里程碑,我們對這個時間表滿意嗎?我們是不是應該理解為你們對明年的時間表感到滿意?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Well, look, there's still a lot of work to go and the year is not finished yet. So we're pushing hard. But at this stage, we're not making any adjustments to our predicted time line, but I just highlight there are still some really significant tests to be completed. But right now, we're not making any major changes.
嗯,你看,還有很多工作要做,今年還沒結束。所以我們正在努力推進。目前,我們不會對預期的時間表做任何調整,但我要強調的是,還有一些非常重要的測試有待完成。目前,我們不會做出任何重大改變。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.
您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Matt Akers。
Matthew Carl Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Matthew Carl Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
I wanted to ask on Neutron. After that first launch, what sort of rate do you envision doing Neutron launches? And what rate are you kind of capacitized to support now? At what point would you need to sort of add capacity there?
我想問一下關於中子火箭的問題。在首次發射之後,您預計中子火箭的發射頻率是多少?現在您的發射能力能夠支援多少頻率?什麼時候需要增加發射容量?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Matt, it's a good question. So we're not trying to do anything Herculean on Neutron. We've lived through the pain of creating a launch vehicle and standing it up and bringing it into production. So it follows a pretty similar cadence profile to what we were able to achieve with Electron. So we'll do a test flight or a couple of test flights and then move into sort of 3 or 4 a year and then continue to bootstrap and grow that and really follow the same model that we followed with Electron where we launched a little bit, we generate some revenue, and we make improvements to the vehicle and we'll make improvements to the infrastructure. And we found that to be by far the most cost-effective way rather than going out and building a giant factory to do huge volumes from day 1 and just consume a tremendous amount of capital. We've kind of always bootstrapped that way along and increased flight rate and cadence along with that and facilities along with that.
馬特,這是個好問題。所以我們不會在中子號上做任何艱鉅的任務。我們經歷過製造、安裝和投產運載火箭的痛苦。所以它遵循的節奏與我們在電子號上實現的節奏非常相似。我們會進行一次或幾次試飛,然後每年進行三到四次試飛,然後繼續引導和發展,真正遵循我們在電子號上遵循的相同模式:我們先發射一點,產生一些收入,然後對運載火箭進行改進,並改進基礎設施。我們發現,這是迄今為止最具成本效益的方式,而不是從第一天起就建造一個巨型工廠來大規模生產,那會耗費大量的資金。我們一直以來都是以這種方式引導發展的,並隨之提高飛行頻率和節奏,以及設施。
Matthew Carl Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Matthew Carl Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
And then if I could ask on, I guess, free cash flow. How much sort of additional expense was there around kind of the investigation in Q3 and maybe into Q4? And sort of how are you thinking about free cash flow into 2024?
然後我想問一下自由現金流。第三季和第四季的調查帶來了多少額外支出?您如何看待2024年的自由現金流?
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Matt, we didn't see a tremendous amount of, I would say, resource diversion. A lot of these kind of anomaly investigations take a select group of very capable people to dive in and do the analysis and investigation, there's not a lot of capital spend associated with it. And we continue to keep our foot on the gas when it came to production of Electron. So the anomaly that gets yourself really won't have any kind of noticeable material effect on cash flow in the fourth quarter.
馬特,我想說,我們沒有看到大量的資源轉移。許多這類異常情況的調查都需要一群非常有能力的菁英深入研究,進行分析和調查,相關的資本支出並不多。而且,在Electron的生產方面,我們持續保持強勁勢頭。因此,遇到的異常情況實際上不會對第四季度的現金流產生任何明顯的實質影響。
I think the biggest thing for us for cash flow is really around timing for these big Space Systems contracts. I mean if you look at our launch business, people typical model is you get paid -- people pay a 10% deposit at contract signing and then there's milestone payments along the way. And typically, there's only 10% left to collect at the time that we actually launch the mission. So that's always been a good cash flow model. It's just all about that getting that business to scale, which, again, we're making great strides in being able to do.
我認為,對我們來說,現金流最重要的因素實際上是這些大型太空系統合約的時機。我的意思是,如果你看看我們的發射業務,你會發現典型的模式是先付款——簽訂合約時支付10%的訂金,然後一路支付里程碑付款。通常情況下,當我們實際發射任務時,只剩下10%的款項可以收取。所以這一直是個好的現金流模式。關鍵在於如何擴大業務規模,而我們正在這方面取得長足進步。
When it comes to Space Systems, there are large contracts. I mentioned lumpy a few times in the prepared commentary and that's really true because you can have the achievement -- you have some delays of achievement of critical design milestones. You got to get through those gates before you can turn that over into the AIT phase of the program where you're doing the assembly, integration and test side of it. And so you can have periods depending what your payment terms are with your customers and on our largest Space Systems contracts, we're dealing with pretty sophisticated organizations that had pretty tough terms. It was -- we were chasing our first large and meaningful Space Systems contracts.
說到太空系統,有很多大型合約。我在準備好的評論中多次提到了“時間不固定”,這確實沒錯,因為關鍵的設計里程碑可能會出現一些延誤。你必須先完成這些關卡,才能將其轉入專案的AIT階段,在該階段進行組裝、整合和測試。因此,你可能會遇到一些週期性的問題,這取決於你與客戶的付款條件。在我們最大的太空系統合約中,我們面對的是一些非常成熟的組織,他們的條款也相當苛刻。我們當時正在爭取我們的第一個大型且意義重大的太空系統合約。
So we weren't necessarily in the best position to negotiate those types of terms to our advantage. But it leads to some, I would say, some -- a little bit of interim to near-term pain on that side. And we've experienced that in 2023. We expect that dynamic from the operating parts of our business to turn around and be much stronger from a cash flow perspective in 2024. Now, we'll continue to see consumption when it comes to Neutron, particularly around prototyping and particularly around infrastructure because we still have infrastructure investments that continue to make to prepare for that first launch at the end of 2024.
因此,我們並非處於最佳位置,無法就此類條款進行談判,從而對我們有利。但我想說,這會帶來一些——從短期到短期的——痛苦。我們在2023年就經歷過這種情況。我們預計,到2024年,我們業務營運部門的這種動態將出現好轉,並從現金流角度來看更加強勁。現在,我們將繼續看到Neutron的消費,尤其是在原型設計和基礎設施方面,因為我們仍在繼續進行基礎設施投資,為2024年底的首次發射做準備。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen.
您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。
Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst
So first quarter, it looks like you have a target price of $7.5 million. Is that the price likely to be for the entire year? Or given the vigor in demand, are you guys increasing prices as we move forward? And if so, by how much?
那麼,第一季度,你們的目標價似乎是 750 萬美元。全年的價格可能都是這個水準嗎?或者,鑑於需求旺盛,你們會逐步提高價格嗎?如果會,會提高多少?
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Yes, it's a good question, Kai. So the manifest that we showed in the deck, I mean that is confirmed backlog pricing is not in question, right? So that does drive to our long-term pricing model in 2024 and that's all contracts, of course, that we can continue to add to the backlog. As we move forward, we certainly are seeing an environment that allows us to drive for firmer pricing. As being one of the few truly operational launch providers, we do have -- we do see pricing power coming in our direction. And so we expect that longer term, we'll see upward movement to the ASP for electron launches. But I would say, again, there's really no volatility to the ones that we showed in the manifest, those are all kind of -- they're booked in their firm price.
是的,凱,這是個好問題。所以我們在簡報中展示的清單,我的意思是,確認的積壓價格是沒有問題的,對吧?這確實會影響我們2024年的長期定價模式,當然,這些合約都是我們可以繼續添加到積壓訂單中的。隨著我們前進,我們肯定會看到一個允許我們推動更穩定定價的環境。作為少數真正運營的發射供應商之一,我們確實擁有——我們確實看到定價權正在朝著我們的方向發展。因此,我們預計,從長遠來看,我們會看到電子發射的平均售價上漲。但我要再次強調,我們在清單中展示的那些價格其實沒有波動,它們都已經記入了固定價格。
Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst
With I guess, not to beat a horse but with Virgin Orbit basically gone, how come you don't increase prices. And when you talk about the longer term, at what point -- what would cause you to raise the price? I mean whether you then raise it, they're all going to go from $7.5 million to $8 million? Or how should I think about how that works? And how does it take into account inflation?
我想,我不是想找茬,但既然維珍軌道公司基本上已經倒閉了,你們怎麼能不漲價呢?說到長期,什麼時候──什麼因素會導致你們漲價?我的意思是,不管你們以後漲價不漲價,它們的價格都會從750萬美元漲到800萬美元?或者我該怎麼理解這個公式?它是怎麼考慮通貨膨脹的?
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
I'll let Pete weigh on this one.
我會讓皮特來權衡這一點。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. I mean we have -- we kind of have a standard escalation for that to deal with inflation year-on-year. And certain missions -- not all missions are the same kind of to Adam's point, is when we do some of the very complicated government and hypersonic missions they command a much higher price than a mission where we're flying -- someone's bought 6 rockets from us and we're flying the same satellite again and again. So there's just kind of variability. And I would say that we test the market pretty fairly on that pricing range, but still try to provide the right price for the products and services that they're expecting from us.
是的。我的意思是,我們有一個標準的升級方案,以應對逐年上漲的通貨膨脹。某些任務——並非所有任務都一樣——正如亞當所說,當我們執行一些非常複雜的政府任務和高超音速任務時,它們的定價會比我們自己發射的任務高得多——有人從我們這裡購買了6枚火箭,而我們一次又一次地發射同一顆衛星。所以價格有一定差異。我想說,我們在這個價格範圍內對市場進行了相當公平的測試,但仍然努力以合適的價格提供他們期望的產品和服務。
Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I just have one last one. So out of the 22 launches, how many are from Virginia?
我還有最後一個問題。 22次發射中,有多少次是在維吉尼亞州進行的?
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
I believe right now, I think there are -- there's at least 2 or maybe 3 launches currently manifested for Virginia.
我相信現在,我認為——目前至少有 2 或 3 次發射將在弗吉尼亞州進行。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Suji Desilva with Roth MKM.
您的下一個問題來自 Roth MKM 的 Suji Desilva。
Suji Desilva - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Suji Desilva - MD & Senior Research Analyst
My questions are on the Space Systems and thanks for the 1Q guidance there. The increase in 1Q versus 4Q, is that primarily the GSAT MDA program ramping up? Or is that the second customer contributing? Any color there on the increase guided for 1Q would be helpful.
我的問題是關於太空系統部門的,感謝您提供的第一季業績指引。第一季相對於第四季的成長,主要是因為GSAT MDA專案正在加速發展嗎?還是因為第二個客戶的貢獻?能否提供第一季業績指引的具體細節,將會非常有幫助。
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Yes. There's a few things contributing to that, obviously, the higher launch cadence as we kind of get back to the pad, as Pete said, on November 28. So it's really coming across the board. We've got strength, in Electron that's coming through and contributing. On the Space Systems side, there's a few things that are going on there. But the biggest element is really is the MDA Globalstar vehicles, again, start coming off the production line. We have a much clearer line of sight to the revenue recognition as bill materials are pulled to the production floor to assemble the spacecraft and the testing and so forth. So it's -- there was a bit of uncertainty as we progress through 2023, because you have milestones for when you get and get through key program reviews like PDRs and CDRs, and you really can't progress and until you get through those.
是的。顯然,有幾個因素促成了這一結果,正如皮特在11月28日所說,隨著我們重返發射台,發射節奏加快了。所以,這確實是全方位的。我們在Electron專案上實力雄厚,正在發揮重要作用。在太空系統方面,也有一些進展。但最重要的因素其實是MDA Globalstar運載火箭再次開始下線。隨著物料清單被送到生產車間組裝太空船、進行測試等等,我們對收入確認有了更清晰的了解。所以,隨著我們進入2023年,存在一些不確定性,因為在獲得併完成關鍵項目評審(例如PDR和CDR)時,存在里程碑,而只有透過這些評審,我們才能取得進展。
Once you have that, and it's a much more -- nothing is easy in this business, but there's a much more kind of predictable formulaic. You've got almost a day-for-day schedule of how you can kind of start to assemble based on the labor that you have and the BOM that you perceived or ordered and when it's scheduled to arrive. It's a much easier thing to predict once you get past those key defined pieces and you move into AIT. So I would say that the majority of the step-up in -- the biggest piece of it, say, maybe not the majority of the biggest piece of the step-up in Q1 is coming from the Globalstar MDA contract, but there is contribution from our other satellite programs as well.
一旦你掌握了這些,事情就變得更容易了——在這個行業裡沒有什麼是容易的,但有一個更可預測的公式。你幾乎每天都有一份計劃表,根據你手頭上的勞動力、你預想或訂購的物料清單以及預計到貨時間,開始組裝。一旦你掌握了這些關鍵的明確部分,並開始進行AIT項目,預測起來就容易多了。所以我想說,第一季的大部分——其中最大的部分,也許不是最大的部分——來自Globalstar MDA合同,但我們其他衛星項目也做出了貢獻。
Suji Desilva - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Suji Desilva - MD & Senior Research Analyst
And then my other question is on the satellite part, manufacturing part of Space Systems as well. With the MDA contract with the 17 satellites and then the second customer coming on, I'm wondering what framework we should think about -- you just think about the capacity per quarter of the number of satellites you can make, if that's the right way to think about how that business can grow over time.
我的另一個問題是關於衛星部分,以及太空系統公司的製造部分。 MDA 已經簽訂了 17 顆衛星的合同,接下來還有第二個客戶,我想知道我們應該考慮什麼樣的框架——你只需要考慮每四分之一衛星的產能,看看這是不是思考這項業務如何隨著時間推移增長的正確方法。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. I mean I wouldn't necessarily just think about capacity because the kind of spacecraft projects we take on they're not just sort of cheap and cheerful easy metal bending kind of jobs. We're going to Mars and we've got the MDA at Globalstar is a great example, is a very deeply complicated mission in a horrible radiation environment. So I wouldn't be necessarily tracking just the volume of spacecraft, but more so the complexity of the emissions because ultimately that drives a lot of value. And even the latest mission that we announced here today, the latest spacecraft, that is not -- that's not an easy build. So we tend to be very successful and do very well and create a lot of value in those. There's as much higher fidelity, much, much tricky emissions to do. So I wouldn't just use a volume kind of metric to kind of measure us.
是的。我的意思是,我不一定會只考慮容量,因為我們承接的太空船專案並非那種廉價、輕鬆的金屬彎曲工作。我們要去火星,我們在全球星上設立的飛彈防禦局(MDA)就是一個很好的例子,這是一個在可怕的輻射環境中執行的極其複雜的任務。所以我不一定會只專注在太空船的體積,而是更關注輻射的複雜性,因為最終這將帶來巨大的價值。即使是我們今天宣布的最新任務,最新的太空船,建造起來也並非易事。所以我們往往非常成功,做得很好,並從中創造了巨大的價值。因為有更高保真度、更棘手的輻射任務要做。所以我不會只用體積之類的指標來衡量我們。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.
您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。
Jason Michael Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst
Jason Michael Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst
Adam, really quickly on the balance sheet. What are the current thoughts or expectations around $100 million that's gone current here? Are we looking to refi that? Or are we going to be taking some cash off the balance sheet to address that? Just want to figure that out from a modeling perspective.
Adam,請快速談談資產負債表。目前,對於目前已到帳的1億美元,您有什麼想法或預期?我們打算再融資嗎?還是要從資產負債表中抽取一些現金來解決這個問題?我想從模型的角度來解答一下。
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
No, we're actively in the process of looking to refinance that. We've got several options. We're pretty far down the path with a few different providers. And they range from doing equipment lines to kind of similar structures to term loans that the Hercules loan represented. But yes, no, that's -- we're looking to refinance that. I think we're hopeful that we'll get that done in hopefully in the next few weeks and again, almost certainly before the end of the year.
不,我們正在積極尋求再融資。我們有幾個選擇。我們已經與幾家不同的供應商合作了一段時間。他們提供的服務範圍很廣,從設備生產線到類似Hercules貸款的定期貸款。不過,是的,不是的,我們正在尋求再融資。我希望我們能在接下來的幾週內完成,幾乎肯定能在年底前完成。
Jason Michael Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst
Jason Michael Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst
And then I want to make sure that I fully understand the comments on Electron for next year. Are you, at this point, fully sold out? Or if you had a couple of customers that wanted to quick-turn mission, would you have the launch vehicles available to do that? Or are you just kind of telling customers, okay, we're sold out for '24, got to look to '25?
然後我想確認一下,我完全理解大家對明年 Electron 火箭計畫的評論。你們現在的火箭項目已經全部售罄了嗎?或者,如果有幾個客戶想要快速完成任務,你們有可用的運載火箭嗎?還是說,你們只是在告訴客戶,2024 年的火箭項目已經售罄,只能期待 2025 年了?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Well, look, we'll always look for opportunistic opportunities. I mean it's fair to say that production will be at near full capacity next year as we deliver on those. But also as you guys see and we experience customers -- some customers slip out and it's very easy for a customer to have an issue in a [T-VEC] cycle and shifted out 6 months, which would create an open opportunity. So we never say no to customers and although, yes, the manifest is essentially full, it doesn't mean that there's not going to be an opportunity open through the year. So yes, we always keep that in our discretion.
嗯,你看,我們總是會尋找機會。我的意思是,公平地說,隨著我們實現這些目標,明年的生產將接近滿載。但如你們所見,我們也經歷過客戶-有些客戶會退出,客戶很容易在[T-VEC]週期內出現問題,並在6個月後就退出,這將創造一個開放的機會。所以我們從不拒絕客戶。雖然清單基本上已經滿了,但這並不意味著全年都不會有開放的機會。所以,是的,我們總是會自行決定。
Jason Michael Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst
Jason Michael Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst
And then last one for me. Just on Neutron, can you just spend a few minutes talking about your current views on the demand outlook for that vehicle? And when in its development cycle, would you expect maybe to get your first order or 2 is kind of proving out the concept of what you're doing here? And then demand is as good as you think it might be. I'm just trying to balance that against the comment that we're going to bootstrap capacity there. Why aren't we running out and trying to fulfill as much demand as possible. So just kind of a general view of the current demand environment for Neutron when we might expect orders? And what kind of levers can you pull to more quickly come in and pull in some of that demand if you think it's really strong.
最後我想問最後一個問題。關於中子星,您能否花幾分鐘時間談談您目前對該運載火箭需求前景的看法?在其開發週期的哪個階段,您預計會接到第一筆或第二筆訂單,這是否能證明您目前所做的事情的可行性?需求確實像您想像的那麼好。我只是想平衡一下我們之前關於「我們將在那裡啟動產能」的說法。為什麼我們不盡可能滿足需求呢?所以,您能否大致了解中子星目前的需求環境,以及我們預計何時會有訂單?如果您認為需求非常強勁,您可以採取哪些措施來更快地吸引和吸收部分需求。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. That's a great question, Jason. So look, on the order side, until a vehicle is kind of proven and flying, any launch contract that you can sign is basically worthless. We can go and sign a launch contract tomorrow with a number of customers that will be like some $1,000 dollars down and cancelable any time. But that really doesn't mean anything. And the one thing that you will always get from us is like real backlogs and real numbers. So it's almost a pointless try to sign something like that now. And then even if you do, we saw this with Electron, right, an unproven vehicle, you just take a massive haircut. So you have to do really low introductory pricing. And with Electron, we carried some of that introductory pricing on for years and we managed to flush it out this year, but for years, we had some really bad missions. So I just don't want to go down that road again.
是的。傑森,這個問題問得很好。所以,就訂單方面來說,在火箭得到某種程度的驗證並能飛行之前,任何你能籤的發射合約基本上都毫無價值。我們可以明天就和一些客戶簽一份發射合同,首付大概1000美元,而且隨時可以取消。但這真的沒有任何意義。你唯一能從我們這裡得到的就是真正的訂單和實際的數字。所以現在簽這樣的合約幾乎毫無意義。而且即使你簽了,就像我們在Electron專案上看到的那樣,一輛未經驗證的火箭,你也只能承受巨大的損失。所以你必須把初始價格定得非常低。 Electron專案的一些初始價格我們保留了好幾年,今年我們設法把它取消了,但多年來,我們的一些任務都很糟糕。所以我不想再走這條路了。
But rather, when you have a flight-proven product that in a launch constrained market, then it becomes very valuable. So I'd much rather arrive to the market with something that works that commands a premium, then fully manifest up with a whole bunch of low-value launches now. And frankly, the customers that we talk to aren't looking to buy 1 or 2 launches, they're looking to buy quite a bit of capacity to fill the constellation or their other needs. So we also need to see them delivering and being on time at the pad because if you commit to one customer and commit a whole launch of manifest and be late then -- and that's not a happy situation either.
相反,當你擁有一款經過飛行驗證的產品,並且它在一個發射受限的市場中,它就會變得非常有價值。所以我寧願帶著一款行之有效、能帶來溢價的產品進入市場,而不是現在就全力投入一大堆低價值的發射。坦白說,我們接觸的客戶並不是想購買一兩次發射,他們希望購買相當大的運力來滿足整個星座或其他需求。所以我們還需要看到他們按時交付,因為如果你承諾給一個客戶,並承諾了整個發射計劃,結果卻遲到了——那也不是一個令人滿意的情況。
So, when we kind of reached a point of critical maturity such that somebody is willing to pay real deposits and write real contracts then that's a good time and you'll see those kind of announcements from us. But until then, I just don't want to put us in a position where we've just got a whole bunch of rubbish, unkind of solidified launch on a manifest that might look good in a slide, but actually isn't that real.
所以,當我們達到一個關鍵的成熟點,有人願意支付真正的定金並簽訂真正的合約時,那就是一個好時機,你會看到我們發布類似的公告。但在此之前,我只是不想讓我們陷入這樣的境地:我們只有一堆垃圾,一份在幻燈片上看起來不錯但實際上並不真實的、毫無根據的發布計劃。
And then on the kind of the bootstrapping, why not go out and just prepare for a massive volume. Look, I think I'd love to do that, that would be awesome. But the reality is that the launch vehicles they're easier to build than a small launch vehicle, but the challenges they just consume a huge amount of capital. And we have to be diligent in the fact to use the capital we have wisely and kind of use it methodically to make sure that we actually put a vehicle on the pad and we're able to scale it in a really safe and methodical sense. If you had no constraints on capital, then, of course, you go and build big factories and to pads and where you would go, but it's not really -- it's really an option and nor is it really our style. So we like to put one on the pad, then we'll work through the block upgrades and improvements that inevitably will happen and then slowly ramp production over the coming years to meet demand.
關於啟動資金,為什麼不直接為大規模生產做準備呢?聽著,我很想這麼做,那太棒了。但現實情況是,大型運載火箭比小型運載火箭更容易製造,但挑戰在於它們消耗大量的資金。我們必須認真對待,明智地、有條不紊地使用現有資金,確保我們真的能把火箭發射到發射台上,並且能夠真正安全、有條不紊地進行規模化生產。如果沒有資金限制,當然可以去建造大型工廠和發射台,但這不是——這真的是一個選擇,也不是我們的風格。所以我們喜歡先把一枚火箭發射到發射台上,然後進行不可避免的批量升級和改進,並在未來幾年逐步提高產量以滿足需求。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.
您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag)。
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
Peter, following up on Jason's question there on the Neutron order. So it sounds like you don't anticipate orders to occur until after Neutron has its first flight. Is that fair?
彼得,我想跟進傑森關於中子火箭訂單的問題。聽起來你預計中子火箭首飛後才會有訂單。這樣說公平嗎?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Kristine, no, that they could occur earlier. But I guess what I'm saying is that the 2 things need to be true that we need to be -- have confidence that the spacecraft will be delivered and they need to have confidence in us. And at this stage of the development program, as I mentioned before, there's still a number of critical milestones to go through. So I wouldn't expect anybody to put huge deposits down on a vehicle in this kind of stage development. And I think that's just the reality.
克里斯汀,不,這些可能會更早發生。但我想說的是,我們需要做到兩點:對太空船交付有信心,並且他們需要對我們有信心。正如我之前提到的,在目前的開發階段,仍有許多關鍵的里程碑需要完成。因此,我不指望有人會在這種階段的開發中為太空船支付巨額額定金。我認為這就是現實。
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
So I guess another way to think about it is it sounds like you guys are prioritizing better pricing in the long term at the expense of building a backlog now and providing significant discounts, which could take years to offset. So if you're confident in your product just wait till after launch is better pricing.
所以我想換個角度想,聽起來你們似乎優先考慮長期更優的定價,卻犧牲了現在的訂單積壓和大幅折扣,而這些折扣可能需要幾年時間才能彌補。所以,如果你們對自己的產品有信心,那就等到產品上市後價格更優的時候再說吧。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Absolutely.
絕對地。
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
Sorry, go ahead.
抱歉,請繼續。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Well, I lived through that with Electron, right? And those contracts can just be really painful to flush out of the system. And there's no argument that there's going to be huge demand and there is huge demand, zero argument about that. So as I mentioned before, like the smart thing to do is arrive with a flight-proven product and not have to do kind of crazy things with pricing and destroy the business model over it.
嗯,我之前用 Electron 的時候就經歷過這種事,對吧?而且那些合約從系統中剔除真的很痛苦。而且毫無疑問會有巨大的需求,而且需求確實很大,這一點毫無爭議。所以,正如我之前提到的,明智的做法是推出一款經過驗證的產品,而不是在定價上做些瘋狂的事情,最終破壞商業模式。
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
And maybe moving to Space Systems. It sounds like your Globalstar contract through MDA as a subcontractor has been progressing well. MDA recently won a $2 billion Telesat LEO contract. How much of an opportunity is there for you to be a subcontract to that program or similar programs of that size gives us pretty meaningful constellation size?
也許會轉向太空系統公司。聽起來你們透過MDA作為分包商簽訂的Globalstar合約進展順利。 MDA最近贏得了價值20億美元的Telesat LEO合約。你們有多大機會成為該專案或類似專案的分包商,從而讓我們擁有相當規模的星座?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Look, I can't really comment on that program in particular. But what I will say is we actively are pursuing these -- many of these large programs, both as contractors and also as primes. So yes, I mean, there's a real opportunity for us. There, obviously, the large volume, but also the constraint on some of those critical components like solar is a huge constraint within the space industry right now. And we obviously own 1 of 3 suppliers of that particular technology in the world. So yes, we see a lot of opportunity there and we're actively and aggressively pursuing these large constellations as, like I say, as a supplier and as a prime.
嗯,我無法具體評論那個項目。但我要說的是,我們正在積極推動這些——許多大型項目,既作為承包商,也作為主要承包商。所以,是的,我的意思是,這對我們來說是一個真正的機會。顯然,巨大的規模,以及一些關鍵零件(例如太陽能)的限制,是目前航太工業面臨的巨大限制因素。而我們顯然擁有全球三大該特定技術供應商之一。所以,是的,我們看到了很多機會,我們正在積極主動地推進這些大型星座項目,就像我說的,我們既是供應商,也是主要承包商。
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst
And if I could ask one last one. You mentioned SolAero, with SolAero, where are margins trending in the quarter? And can you provide any update on your tracking towards the 30% gross margin target for that business?
我想問最後一個問題。您提到了 SolAero,那麼 SolAero 本季的利潤率趨勢如何?能否提供一下該業務 30% 毛利率目標的進度?
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
So, we've made very good progress towards our gross margin goals for that business. We said that 2 years post-acquisition, we wanted to be at 30 points of non-GAAP gross margin. I think we're going to trail that by -- I think, by maybe a couple of quarters, but the progression has been pretty clear and pretty steady. And we can definitely -- well, we've made improvements to get better margin on the existing backlog that's in place when we acquired the company. But I would say in the course of the last year in particular, we've got a pretty stringent process for improving new customer deals.
因此,我們在實現該業務的毛利率目標方面取得了非常顯著的進展。我們曾說過,收購兩年後,我們希望非公認會計準則下的毛利率達到30個百分點。我認為我們可能會落後——大概是幾個季度,但進展相當清晰,也相當穩定。而且我們確實可以——嗯,我們已經做出了改進,以提高收購公司時已有的積壓訂單的利潤率。但我想說,尤其是在去年,我們制定了一套相當嚴格的流程來改善新客戶交易。
And I don't believe that we've really seen -- I can't recall the last time that we approved a deal that was below that 30% gross margin target. In fact, we're kind of tying with how to start pushing that target a little bit further north from that because long term, that's not our goal to be at 30 points. We view that as having a great opportunity for really healthy long-term margins. But great progress towards the 30 points. I think we're going to hit that at some point in 2024. And again, all of our kind of building backlog is 100% supportive of that.
我認為我們還沒有真正看到過——我不記得上次我們批准的交易低於30%的毛利率目標。事實上,我們正在努力將這個目標稍微往上推一點,因為從長遠來看,30%的毛利率並非我們的目標。我們認為這是一個實現真正健康的長期利潤率的絕佳機會。但朝著30%的目標邁進,我們取得了巨大的進步。我認為我們將在2024年的某個時候實現這一目標。再說一次,我們所有的在建訂單都100%支持這個目標。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein with Bank of America.
您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。
Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst
Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst
A lot's been asked. I'm the last guy. So I'll be quick because I guess we're running over on time. But here's a question for you. I mean a lot of the space start-up companies have been having difficulty. And you guys were able to pick up some interesting assets from Virgin Orbit. When you look at the Space Systems business, is there a talent you can pick up in the satellite world in terms of engineers and other things? I mean some of the small satellite companies, their stocks are trading below the equity is trading below $1 per share. And it's -- I would imagine it must be a pretty good environment to recruit talent in. I don't know if you can speak to that, but as you try to grow that business, are you able to pick up some talent?
問很多。我是最後一個。我會很快回答,因為時間可能有點趕了。不過我還有一個問題想問你。很多太空新創公司最近都遇到了麻煩。而你們從維珍軌道公司(Virgin Orbit)那裡獲得了一些有價值的資產。就太空系統業務而言,你們在衛星領域能找到工程師和其他方面的人才嗎?我的意思是,一些小型衛星公司的股價低於每股1美元。我想,現在招募人才的環境一定相當不錯。我不知道你能不能談談這個問題,但隨著你們努力發展業務,你們能找到一些人才嗎?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, Ron, absolutely, that is true. And great talent attracts great talent as well. And the team that we've built there is, it's simply awesome. So that's been true. What I will say though is I think we mentioned before the bar to get into Rocket Lab is extraordinarily high. I mean it's twice as hard -- we did the metrics and it's twice as hard to get into Rocket Lab than it is to get into Harvard. So we're very, very fussy about the folks that we bring onboard. But certainly, there's opportunities there for new folks as some of those other businesses fail.
是的,羅恩,絕對沒錯。而且優秀的人才也會吸引優秀的人才。我們在那裡組建的團隊非常棒。所以這是真的。不過我想說的是,我想我們之前提到過,進入Rocket Lab的門檻非常高。我的意思是,難度是哈佛的兩倍——我們做了一些衡量標準,進入Rocket Lab的難度是哈佛的兩倍。所以我們對招募的人才非常非常挑剔。但當然,隨著其他一些企業倒閉,Rocket Lab也為新人提供了機會。
Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst
Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst
And then maybe just following up on Neutron because this came up a couple of times in some of your other questions. What are some of the milestones we should be looking for? As we look out into next year as kind of outsiders, not inside the company, what boxes can we check and say, hey, yes, it's trucking right along to feel good about where the program is going.
然後,也許可以跟進一下 Neutron 項目,因為這個問題在您的其他問題中出現過幾次。我們應該期待哪些里程碑?當我們作為外部人士(而非公司內部人士)展望明年時,我們可以檢查哪些方面,然後說“嘿,是的,一切進展順利”,對專案的進展感到滿意。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
I presume you're talking about Neutron hereon?
我猜您在這裡談論的是中子?
Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst
Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst
Yes, excuse me, yes, Neutron.
是的,對不起,是的,中子。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. So we've kind of laid out a few -- I mean, obviously, engines always a long pole in the tent. So look for hot fires and kind of completions of all programs and things like that. We achieved probably it's understated, but the second stage tank test was a huge milestone because although it just kind of looks like a big black thing that we filled and made frosty and then blew it up. The reality is that, that validated like so many material properties, so many manufacturing processes, so much of the kind of core underlying materials and technology and designs are all validated by that test and by that milestone.
是的。所以我們佈置了一些——我的意思是,顯然,引擎總是像帳篷裡一根長桿一樣。所以要注意熱火,以及所有項目的完成情況等等。我們取得了成就,或許這麼說有些低估了,但第二級燃料箱測試是一個巨大的里程碑,因為雖然它看起來就像一個巨大的黑色物體,我們把它裝滿,冷卻,然後把它炸掉。事實上,它驗證了許多材料特性、製造工藝,以及許多核心底層材料、技術和設計,這些都經過那次測試和那個里程碑得到了驗證。
So it's kind of, sometimes it's kind of a little bit difficult. And then I tried this earnings to give some color about some of the other tests that are going on. And there's just heaps and heaps going on and so many tests and milestones met every day that it's kind of hard to get them all on paper. But I mean, the key ones is fire and then fire reliably out of Archimedes and continued Neutron structures, keep looking for things that get frosty because that's important milestones. And then I would say next year is start to look for stuff coming out of the ground, start to watch us pour concrete and things like that because the vehicle drives the ground of the structure enormously. So if the vehicle is mature, then the ground infrastructure can start to be built. So they sort of go hand in hand and one leads the other. So if they're starting to pour concrete, then I would feel good and stuff like that.
所以有時候確實有點難。我試著用這份財報來介紹一下正在進行的其他一些測試。每天都有無數的測試和里程碑要達成,很難把它們都記錄下來。但我的意思是,關鍵是點火,然後可靠地從阿基米德結構中點火,並繼續尋找能夠結霜的東西,因為這些都是重要的里程碑。然後我想說,明年開始尋找從地面鑽出的東西,開始觀察我們澆築混凝土等等,因為飛行器對地面結構的驅動作用很大。所以,如果飛行器成熟了,就可以開始建造地面基礎設施了。所以它們就像是齊頭並進,一個引領另一個。所以,如果他們開始澆築混凝土,我會感到很高興,諸如此類。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Andres Sheppard with Cantor Fitzgerald.
我們的下一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 Andres Sheppard。
Andres Juan Sheppard-Slinger - Research Analyst
Andres Juan Sheppard-Slinger - Research Analyst
I appreciate you guys getting us in and congratulations on the quarter. Most of our questions have been asked. So maybe just one 2-part question. First, with the roughly $400 million in cash and equivalents, would you mind just reminding us what is the expected run rate there? And then secondly, is -- you provided the revenue guidance for Q1 as well as your updated backlog with 57% of that backlog being recognized in the first 12 months. Can you give us any sort of ideas or direction on how we should be thinking about that backlog being recognized in terms of seasonality or second half, first half? Any color there that you might be able to give us?
感謝你們的參與,並祝賀本季取得的成績。我們大部分的問題都已經被問過了。所以,我只想提一個分成兩個部分的問題。首先,考慮到大約4億美元的現金和等價物,您能否提醒我們預期的運行率是多少?其次,您提供了第一季的收入預期以及最新的待售訂單,其中57%的待售訂單是在前12個月確認的。您能否就我們應該如何考慮待售訂單的確認,從季節性、下半年還是上半年的角度,給我們一些想法或指導?能具體解釋一下嗎?
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Adam Spice - CFO, Secretary & Treasurer
Andres, I'll take the first one and Pete can kind of chime in, in the second. But with the cash, we talked about the fact that we're -- 2024 from our base systems business should be a much more cash positive story for us. The nature of the biggest program, which was MDA Globalstar, had a bunch of unique and quite honestly, onerous terms when it came to timing about us getting paid. We've now kind of crossed the river on that one, if you will, and we're on the better side of that as we now again, move into the AIT phase.
安德烈斯,我選第一個,皮特可以談談第二個。至於資金,我們談到了——從基礎系統業務到2024年,對我們來說應該是更有利的現金流。最大的項目是MDA Globalstar,它在付款時間方面有很多獨特且坦率地說很苛刻的條款。現在,我們已經在這方面取得了一些進展,而且情況正在好轉,因為我們現在又進入了AIT階段。
So, we believe we've got sufficient liquidity to do exactly what we said we were going to do when we came public, which is that we want to broaden out our Space Systems business. We've acquired 3 businesses since becoming public. We've also committed to getting -- having up capital get to the Neutron product the pad. That's also well within the scope of what we've called out. But what I would say is that we still have a significant amount of capital to consume in getting Neutron to the pad by the end of next year.
所以,我們相信我們擁有足夠的流動資金來實現我們上市時的承諾,即拓展我們的太空系統業務。自上市以來,我們已經收購了三家公司。我們也致力於籌集資金,將中子產品推向發射台。這也完全在我們所說的範圍之內。但我想說的是,我們仍有大量資金需要消耗,才能在明年年底前將中子產品推向發射台。
Now again, we're well funded to do that. The timing of that is a little bit difficult to predict because as Pete's kind of gone through some of the milestones and these programs, they can be -- they can move around a bit. There's different ways to kind of get there, kind of the -- there's some make versus buy decisions that take place that can affect how much cash flows out the door. So I would say that it's difficult to predict and also going to be dependent upon other business that we close as we progress through the remainder of 2023 and '24 and what those cash [metrics] look like.
現在,我們有足夠的資金來實現這一點。具體時間有點難以預測,因為Pete已經經歷了一些里程碑和項目,它們可能會有所調整。實現目標的方式有很多種,有些是自主研發還是外購,這些決策會影響現金流出量。所以,我想說,這很難預測,也取決於我們在2023年和2024年剩餘時間關閉的其他業務,以及這些現金指標的狀況。
But right now, I would say that our Q3 cash consumption number was kind of a high point that we've seen thus far, that could hover around in that range for a quarter or so, but then we start to see that significantly trend down as we get past these key milestones and Neutron gets closer and closer and closer to pad. The biggest factor right now in 2024 is really going to be progress towards those Neutron milestones from a developer perspective and also from an infrastructure perspective, as Pete mentioned. But again, we don't have any concerns right now that we -- that we don't have the runway to get to where we need to go.
但就目前而言,我想說,我們第三季的現金消耗量是我們迄今為止看到的高點,可能會在這個範圍內徘徊一個季度左右,但隨著我們突破這些關鍵里程碑,Neutron 也越來越接近發射台,我們開始看到這一趨勢顯著下降。正如 Pete 所提到的,2024 年目前最大的因素實際上是從開發者和基礎設施的角度,朝著 Neutron 里程碑邁進。但同樣,我們現在並不擔心我們沒有足夠的跑道來實現我們需要的目標。
As far as the backlog and how that's going to be realized and seasonality and so forth, we don't really have a lot of view on seasonality. We haven't seen kind of true seasonality in our business. We've seen a lot of volatility, which has really been more a function for what we can tell from some of our smaller customers, it's the access to funding, either through their government partner programs, whether it's through VC cycles and kind of the success in raising funds and so forth. So we really see more effect on revenue as our customers kind of go through their kind of cash, kind of rich and cash core cycles. But again, I think that what you'll see is we've gone through an elevated quarter, we'll probably have another couple of elevated quarters before it starts to get much better and we start to, again, let's say, not consume as much cash as we have, again, a function of programs where we are in their life cycles and just Neutron developments.
至於積壓訂單、如何實現積壓訂單以及季節性等因素,我們對季節性並沒有太多的認知。我們的業務還沒有真正體現出季節性。我們看到了很多波動,這實際上更多地取決於我們從一些小客戶那裡了解到的情況,這些客戶獲得資金的方式包括透過政府合作夥伴專案、創投週期以及融資成功率等等。因此,隨著我們的客戶經歷他們的現金、現金核心週期,我們確實看到了收入受到更大影響。但我認為,我們經歷了一個成長的季度,在情況開始好轉之前,我們可能還會經歷幾個成長的季度,然後我們開始,比如說,不再像以前那樣消耗那麼多現金,這取決於我們處於生命週期的專案以及Neutron的開發情況。
Andres Juan Sheppard-Slinger - Research Analyst
Andres Juan Sheppard-Slinger - Research Analyst
Congratulations on the quarter.
恭喜本季。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Erik Rasmussen with Stifel.
您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Erik Rasmussen。
Erik Rasmussen - VP
Erik Rasmussen - VP
Maybe just on the HASTE rocket. You said you secured 7 missions in the past 6 months. Does this change the number of missions that you had previously thought you would do? I mean, you've seen things accelerating?
也許只是在HASTE火箭上。您說在過去的六個月裡您已經完成了7次任務。這會改變您之前預計要執行的任務數量嗎?我的意思是,您看到事情正在加速發展嗎?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. I mean, we always knew that there was demand for this product, but I would say that we're pleasantly surprised to see the demand grow the way it's growing. That first flight was an important one to demonstrate the capability. There's a bit of I would say, hysteresis in the way government customers move to new kind of products like this. And that was all kind of dissolved with a very successful flight. So we're kind of reaping the benefits of that. And the vehicle is just able to do a bunch of stuff that has been inaccessible before being a liquid throttleable vehicle. So it really opens the aperture for what can be done and development of systems that really in some places, in some respects can't be developed anywhere else in the world. So it's -- so we're pleasantly surprised to see the pick up on the program.
是的。我的意思是,我們一直都知道這款產品有需求,但看到需求如此快速增長,我們感到驚訝。首飛對於展示其性能至關重要。我認為,政府客戶在轉向這類新產品時,存在一些遲滯。但這次非常成功的飛行徹底解決了這些問題。所以我們從中獲益良多。這款飛行器能夠完成許多在成為液體節流飛行器之前無法實現的功能。因此,它確實為某些領域的應用和系統開發開闢了新的可能性,而這些系統在某些方面,在世界其他任何地方都無法開發。所以,我們很高興看到這個專案的進展。
Erik Rasmussen - VP
Erik Rasmussen - VP
And maybe just -- you made an announcement, you opened up the -- an Engine Development Center in the former Virgin Orbit assets facility. What sort of production capacity can you expect to achieve once operational? And what is the time line to maybe hit that, maybe call it an annual run rate?
也許只是…您宣佈在前維珍軌道資產設施內開設了一個發動機開發中心。一旦投入運營,您預計能達到什麼樣的生產能力?要達到這個目標需要多長時間,或可以稱之為年運行率?
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. Look, the Virgin Orbit facility was a bit of a boon really because there is more equipment and capacity there than we can see in the future for an engine facility. It's gold-plated. So yes, I mean there's no numbers that we're working with at the moment that would see that EDC facility reach capacity.
是的。你看,維珍軌道設施確實有點優勢,因為那裡的設備和容量比我們未來設想的引擎設施還要大。簡直是錦上添花。所以,是的,我的意思是,我們目前還沒有確切的數字能夠讓EDC設施達到滿載運轉。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Peter Beck for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
女士們,先生們,現在沒有其他問題了。現在我將把發言權交還給彼得·貝克,請他作最後發言。請發言。
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Peter Beck - Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Okay. That wraps today's presentation. Thank you, everyone for joining us for the call. Rocket Lab will be participating in some upcoming conferences displayed on the sheet there and look forward to the opportunity to share more exciting news and updates with you then. Thanks again, and we look forward to speaking to you soon.
好的。今天的演講到此結束。感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。 Rocket Lab 將參加一些即將舉行的會議,會議安排已在會議單上公佈,我們期待屆時有機會與大家分享更多令人興奮的消息和最新動態。再次感謝,我們期待很快與您聯繫。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect your lines.
女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,現在您可以掛斷電話了。